{"status":"exploratory-retrospective","evaluationHash":"0d6805d04bdb49a8deca1c4bc9ff6bbbc662cd4254157e6846f3f94fd0e5c85a","groups":[{"group":"all","paired":94,"observed":658,"models":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":3.459055585106383,"coverage":0.9361702127659575,"width":26.98936170212766,"bias":6.284414893617024},"rollingETAS":{"crps":2.388529521276596,"coverage":0.9361702127659575,"width":17.617021276595743,"bias":2.1677127659574467},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":3.5458518617021273,"coverage":0.8936170212765957,"width":26.638297872340427,"bias":6.383670212765958},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":4.774190957446808,"coverage":0.4787234042553192,"width":10.946808510638299,"bias":4.648936170212766},"recentPoisson":{"crps":2.839200531914894,"coverage":0.7553191489361702,"width":8.861702127659575,"bias":0.6840425531914894},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":2.842107446808511,"coverage":0.9787234042553191,"width":24.27659574468085,"bias":0.7878723404255314}}},{"group":"2019","paired":13,"observed":116,"models":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":3.8414019230769223,"coverage":1,"width":29.384615384615383,"bias":7.3003846153846155},"rollingETAS":{"crps":3.844361538461539,"coverage":0.9230769230769231,"width":34.69230769230769,"bias":8.246153846153847},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":4.365696153846153,"coverage":0.8461538461538461,"width":30.76923076923077,"bias":8.27923076923077},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":5.839401923076924,"coverage":0.3076923076923077,"width":11.923076923076923,"bias":5.190384615384615},"recentPoisson":{"crps":3.5224038461538454,"coverage":0.7692307692307693,"width":9.615384615384615,"bias":-0.013076923076923071},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":3.611521153846153,"coverage":1,"width":24.53846153846154,"bias":-0.19884615384615364}}},{"group":"2025","paired":12,"observed":137,"models":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":5.138622916666667,"coverage":0.9166666666666666,"width":34.75,"bias":7.36375},"rollingETAS":{"crps":4.27565625,"coverage":0.8333333333333334,"width":13.166666666666666,"bias":-2.2637500000000004},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":6.050943750000001,"coverage":0.75,"width":32.916666666666664,"bias":8.249583333333332},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":6.731264583333332,"coverage":0.5,"width":10.666666666666666,"bias":-0.88625},"recentPoisson":{"crps":6.3256625,"coverage":0.5,"width":10.333333333333334,"bias":-0.9441666666666663},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":6.974935416666667,"coverage":1,"width":51.916666666666664,"bias":-0.5262500000000004}}},{"group":"recentLargeParent","paired":2,"observed":70,"models":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":15.2452375,"coverage":1,"width":73,"bias":26.3075},"rollingETAS":{"crps":14.98005,"coverage":0,"width":51,"bias":5.375000000000002},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":23.2706375,"coverage":0,"width":76,"bias":35.8175},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":21.09245,"coverage":0,"width":10,"bias":-22.945},"recentPoisson":{"crps":23.710875,"coverage":0,"width":10.5,"bias":-25.485},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":24.073725,"coverage":1,"width":55.5,"bias":-25.285}}},{"group":"noRecentLargeParent","paired":92,"observed":588,"models":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":3.2028342391304347,"coverage":0.9347826086956522,"width":25.98913043478261,"bias":5.84913043478261},"rollingETAS":{"crps":2.1148008152173916,"coverage":0.9565217391304348,"width":16.891304347826086,"bias":2.0979891304347826},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":3.117052173913043,"coverage":0.9130434782608695,"width":25.565217391304348,"bias":5.743804347826086},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":4.419446195652173,"coverage":0.4891304347826087,"width":10.967391304347826,"bias":5.248804347826087},"recentPoisson":{"crps":2.38546847826087,"coverage":0.7717391304347826,"width":8.826086956521738,"bias":1.2529347826086954},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":2.380550543478261,"coverage":0.9782608695652174,"width":23.597826086956523,"bias":1.354673913043478}}}],"unresolvedLogScores":{"frozenETAS":30,"rollingETAS":18,"unclippedParentsETAS":30,"expandingPoisson":110,"recentPoisson":64,"recentNegativeBinomial":15},"failedCells":{"frozenETAS":0,"rollingETAS":0,"unclippedParentsETAS":0,"expandingPoisson":0,"recentPoisson":0,"recentNegativeBinomial":0},"limitations":["Sequence groups are descriptive post-hoc slices, not untouched validation.","Recent-large-parent definition uses only prior 30 days with M>=5.5; it is not aftershock association.","Small sequence groups cannot establish calibration.","Do not average resolved logarithmic scores while excluding zero-mass outcomes.","No M7 probability or model promotion."],"disclosure":{"schema":1,"scope":"regional M2+ earthquake count","status":"experimental","calibrationStatus":"not-validated","interval":"Conditional simulated 5th–95th count percentiles; not comprehensive uncertainty","excludes":["next-earthquake time/location/magnitude","early warning","M7 probability","foreshock probability","building safety","specific-fault rupture"],"warning":{"tr":"Bu hesap bir sonraki depremin yerini, zamanını veya büyüklüğünü söylemez. Erken uyarı vermez. Büyük deprem olasılığını, bir depremin öncü olup olmadığını veya binanızın güvenliğini göstermez.","en":"This calculation cannot tell you the location, time or magnitude of the next earthquake. It is not an early warning. It does not estimate a major-earthquake or foreshock probability, building safety or which fault will rupture."}},"calibrationStatus":"not-validated","repositoryEvaluationHash":"b61a2696eb24ee77806d1e875baeb23c3d1144dd0139cb1d53bb52f5d9f92b33"}