{"schema":1,"status":"exploratory-retrospective","promotionEligible":false,"protocol":{"version":"science-followup-1","status":"frozen-before-this-run-not-an-untouched-holdout","catalog":"data/afad-50year-2026-10-10.json.gz","trainingStart":"2014-01-01","evaluationStart":"2019-01-01","evaluationEndExclusive":"2026-10-01","cadenceDays":30,"horizons":[1,7,30],"thresholds":[2,3,4],"runs":200,"seed":820001,"rollingDays":1095,"refitCadence":"calendar-year-start","optimizer":{"starts":3,"maxiter":150},"primaryScore":"CRPS","bootstrapBlockWindows":[3,6,12],"bootstrapRuns":2000,"productionPromotion":false,"limitations":["The catalog and some outcomes were inspected previously; no untouched retrospective holdout can now be claimed.","2014 eligibility was chosen retrospectively, not historically as issued.","Native AFAD magnitude scales remain mixed.","New prospective windows must elapse before prospective validation is possible."]},"catalogHash":"92990525febf84c6bd082d250ea3cc87c486ebb95a81cf8b57aa5c78bb70e5b7","sourceHashes":{"research/etas.py":"f1ba702de9e5518cd05a94f5172829d725e17381fffcecc4b87805cda4ecafa9","research/matrix.py":"57732883e2de4567208cfaf834675ab73e0a7345f3fdde806faf571cda131ae6","research/protocol-v1.json":"f827e60c920c488ac6d95f51c4bcb6609fb45beba11c7825064728b631e5d8e7"},"fits":{"frozenETAS":{"parameters":{"mu":0.5149803173287499,"n":0.95,"alpha":0.6068022961240197,"p":1.1668812961257264,"c":0.024567829510015588},"b":0.9096165346073471,"markMax":5.5,"diagnostics":{"converged":true,"message":"CONVERGENCE: RELATIVE REDUCTION OF F <= FACTR*EPSMCH","objective":-1867.6328755153145,"gradient":[-0.0006366462880420554,-39.06511645634398,0.0030922819704899836,-0.0005456968243802135,0.0074123818182075425],"boundaryHits":["n"],"multistartObjectives":[-1867.6328755153145,-1867.6328755144273,-1867.6328755059476],"seconds":34.37090199999511,"iterations":27,"promotionEligible":false},"trainingStart":1388534400000,"trainingEndExclusive":1546300800000,"trainingCount":3789,"inputHash":"9817003a39533b249b83fc5bdd1b0f4e825268431e6f00c3fcd649a7f0da16cd"},"rollingETAS-2019":{"parameters":{"mu":0.5276441652363375,"n":0.95,"alpha":0.6331743968650465,"p":1.1859142550670974,"c":0.02522177284463482},"b":0.8766967034145726,"markMax":5.5,"diagnostics":{"converged":true,"message":"CONVERGENCE: RELATIVE REDUCTION OF F <= FACTR*EPSMCH","objective":-1510.0409646094809,"gradient":[0.00004547473486014681,-35.29362384598284,0,0.00045474735365017796,-0.0007275957612964458],"boundaryHits":["n"],"multistartObjectives":[-1510.040964606098,-1510.0409646094809,-1510.040964604042],"seconds":13.389042292023078,"iterations":21,"promotionEligible":false},"trainingStart":1451692800000,"trainingEndExclusive":1546300800000,"trainingCount":2314,"inputHash":"7f93c32384a712ed0dd493692d33d17be55954f8fc99fa56595fce18b07a8588"},"rollingETAS-2020":{"parameters":{"mu":0.43762956446894924,"n":0.95,"alpha":0.6131969746081564,"p":1.1964366705233094,"c":0.025219715004321935},"b":0.8506191431840107,"markMax":5.5,"diagnostics":{"converged":true,"message":"CONVERGENCE: RELATIVE REDUCTION OF F <= FACTR*EPSMCH","objective":-1842.785831053247,"gradient":[-0.0005911715564635699,-65.14569544386566,0.0010459189017833768,0.01259650169610993,-0.04329194779713853],"boundaryHits":["n"],"multistartObjectives":[-1842.785831053247,-1842.7858309668832,-1842.785831050288],"seconds":18.837707499973476,"iterations":33,"promotionEligible":false},"trainingStart":1483228800000,"trainingEndExclusive":1577836800000,"trainingCount":2381,"inputHash":"9f6c7de7d046becd6c69073075a5de092312235e9484a8372f05414b02b3a214"},"rollingETAS-2021":{"parameters":{"mu":0.5632517620246253,"n":0.95,"alpha":0.7002986913925264,"p":1.0749733435432922,"c":0.00682150169784853},"b":0.8620550502229071,"markMax":5.5,"diagnostics":{"converged":true,"message":"CONVERGENCE: RELATIVE REDUCTION OF F <= FACTR*EPSMCH","objective":582.8308404002108,"gradient":[0.000011368683715036703,-0.8036522518159446,0.000011368683715036703,0.000056843419206272246,0.00001136868377222912],"boundaryHits":["n"],"multistartObjectives":[582.8308404007136,582.8308404003765,582.8308404002108],"seconds":8.662095624953508,"iterations":35,"promotionEligible":false},"trainingStart":1514851200000,"trainingEndExclusive":1609459200000,"trainingCount":1227,"inputHash":"750a151c77812bf4430e6601a68e4adabf10f02ad788640d48b2b5f65e64fb60"},"rollingETAS-2022":{"parameters":{"mu":0.5014065010255224,"n":0.95,"alpha":0.7824063247438537,"p":1.0701556184617975,"c":0.011438309107301543},"b":0.8900675901606142,"markMax":5.5,"diagnostics":{"converged":true,"message":"CONVERGENCE: RELATIVE REDUCTION OF F <= FACTR*EPSMCH","objective":638.4219985250611,"gradient":[-0.00004547473486014681,-2.2909034554170464,-0.00011368683715036704,-0.00007958078688878114,-0.0017735146684677427],"boundaryHits":["n"],"multistartObjectives":[638.4219989526214,638.4219985250611,638.4219985270232],"seconds":5.306773458956741,"iterations":35,"promotionEligible":false},"trainingStart":1546387200000,"trainingEndExclusive":1640995200000,"trainingCount":1065,"inputHash":"38c741736f1d387a41d66b5bf8a1f38ebfd957ea1e4ae2d0da2f80b4910ccac1"},"rollingETAS-2023":{"parameters":{"mu":0.5986752755130007,"n":0.95,"alpha":0.63195111325002,"p":1.0293306168342435,"c":0.002601320472075248},"b":0.9310433968536178,"markMax":5.5,"diagnostics":{"converged":true,"message":"CONVERGENCE: RELATIVE REDUCTION OF F <= FACTR*EPSMCH","objective":951.6946787269842,"gradient":[0,-0.6267782705774035,0,0.000056843419206272246,-0.000864019966689413],"boundaryHits":["n"],"multistartObjectives":[951.6946787422899,951.6946787271767,951.6946787269842],"seconds":5.20933550002519,"iterations":44,"promotionEligible":false},"trainingStart":1577923200000,"trainingEndExclusive":1672531200000,"trainingCount":887,"inputHash":"d860b5ca5b6de12935228226e333857a48d3038961a5c72d98c1b300a7b04d58"},"rollingETAS-2024":{"parameters":{"mu":0.579990276377508,"n":0.95,"alpha":0.6836472321460766,"p":1.0379065132305019,"c":0.003606342220917583},"b":0.9117676021386354,"markMax":5.5,"diagnostics":{"converged":true,"message":"CONVERGENCE: RELATIVE REDUCTION OF F <= FACTR*EPSMCH","objective":894.7947108503417,"gradient":[0.00014779288829547716,-2.1184859981947994,-0.00012505552086540373,0.002057731775267055,-0.00477484718433623],"boundaryHits":["n"],"multistartObjectives":[894.7947108513877,894.7947108507561,894.7947108503417],"seconds":4.175965125090443,"iterations":41,"promotionEligible":false},"trainingStart":1609459200000,"trainingEndExclusive":1704067200000,"trainingCount":927,"inputHash":"9741204ad476c65050aefc813e8067ea712482f5c50000ad0df497f6b299df4b"},"rollingETAS-2025":{"parameters":{"mu":0.5771038329940131,"n":0.95,"alpha":0.4995090586013375,"p":1.0502945083006496,"c":0.005080770430192974},"b":0.8821671743273113,"markMax":5.5,"diagnostics":{"converged":true,"message":"CONVERGENCE: RELATIVE REDUCTION OF F <= FACTR*EPSMCH","objective":877.6817682141717,"gradient":[-0.00004547473486014681,-3.5181187564041134,0.000011368683778145576,-0.00017053025761881672,0.0002387423592168115],"boundaryHits":["n"],"multistartObjectives":[877.6817682143974,877.6817682142906,877.6817682141717],"seconds":5.1506107080494985,"iterations":36,"promotionEligible":false},"trainingStart":1641081600000,"trainingEndExclusive":1735689600000,"trainingCount":1059,"inputHash":"44d07e514700da2696bdc247e2e42188ba57b1866dc19e7d1a332c6a8281fcb4"},"rollingETAS-2026":{"parameters":{"mu":0.5597432421186793,"n":0.95,"alpha":0.7530305889694944,"p":1.085686592526433,"c":0.012714009945754095},"b":0.8197315633722271,"markMax":5.5,"diagnostics":{"converged":true,"message":"CONVERGENCE: RELATIVE REDUCTION OF F <= FACTR*EPSMCH","objective":-33.65884435093858,"gradient":[0.000022737367430073406,-6.360301053847004,0.000022737367430073406,-0.0000227373676825089,0],"boundaryHits":["n"],"multistartObjectives":[-33.658844350764184,-33.65884435093858,-33.658844350900154],"seconds":6.782814959064126,"iterations":29,"promotionEligible":false},"trainingStart":1672617600000,"trainingEndExclusive":1767225600000,"trainingCount":1406,"inputHash":"fea7c62e442b39fdf5501dab19341b314e6620cac470456c63d7f8552c096d90"}},"cells":[{"horizonDays":1,"threshold":2,"available":94,"paired":94,"observed":105,"models":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.5493707446808511,"bias":0.6608510638297871,"coverage":1,"width":5.404255319148936,"maeMedian":0.6702127659574468},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.5160547872340425,"bias":0.1836170212765958,"coverage":0.9893617021276596,"width":3.9148936170212765,"maeMedian":0.6914893617021277},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.5484268617021277,"bias":0.7006914893617021,"coverage":1,"width":5.414893617021277,"maeMedian":0.675531914893617},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.7908247340425534,"bias":0.5519680851063831,"coverage":0.9680851063829787,"width":4.01063829787234,"maeMedian":1.0638297872340425},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.6698960106382978,"bias":-0.022180851063829776,"coverage":0.9468085106382979,"width":2.9468085106382977,"maeMedian":0.8563829787234043},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.7124561170212766,"bias":-0.026648936170212804,"coverage":0.9680851063829787,"width":4.808510638297872,"maeMedian":1.0053191489361701}},"versusRecentPoisson":{"frozenETAS":[{"mean":-0.12052526595744681,"low":-0.37974061835106393,"high":0.07385892952127637,"blockWindows":3,"runs":2000,"seed":310},{"mean":-0.12052526595744681,"low":-0.3804183311170213,"high":0.07951086436170171,"blockWindows":6,"runs":2000,"seed":310},{"mean":-0.12052526595744681,"low":-0.34989376994680854,"high":0.07851000664893608,"blockWindows":12,"runs":2000,"seed":310}],"rollingETAS":[{"mean":-0.15384122340425532,"low":-0.3871055718085106,"high":-0.0013610904255319854,"blockWindows":3,"runs":2000,"seed":310},{"mean":-0.15384122340425532,"low":-0.3748165691489362,"high":0.004388450797872197,"blockWindows":6,"runs":2000,"seed":310},{"mean":-0.15384122340425532,"low":-0.3461941156914892,"high":0.00017456117021276229,"blockWindows":12,"runs":2000,"seed":310}],"unclippedParentsETAS":[{"mean":-0.1214691489361702,"low":-0.37725361037234045,"high":0.07494935505319147,"blockWindows":3,"runs":2000,"seed":310},{"mean":-0.1214691489361702,"low":-0.38182553191489355,"high":0.07925341755319142,"blockWindows":6,"runs":2000,"seed":310},{"mean":-0.1214691489361702,"low":-0.3539360239361702,"high":0.07585916888297854,"blockWindows":12,"runs":2000,"seed":310}],"expandingPoisson":[{"mean":0.12092872340425534,"low":0.03184377659574468,"high":0.20600748005319144,"blockWindows":3,"runs":2000,"seed":310},{"mean":0.12092872340425534,"low":0.028559660904255324,"high":0.21671249999999997,"blockWindows":6,"runs":2000,"seed":310},{"mean":0.12092872340425534,"low":0.014782180851063838,"high":0.22940454122340426,"blockWindows":12,"runs":2000,"seed":310}],"recentNegativeBinomial":[{"mean":0.042560106382978725,"low":-0.06458769946808512,"high":0.139181954787234,"blockWindows":3,"runs":2000,"seed":310},{"mean":0.042560106382978725,"low":-0.07114271941489363,"high":0.16099910904255316,"blockWindows":6,"runs":2000,"seed":310},{"mean":0.042560106382978725,"low":-0.054580605053191546,"high":0.15738398271276594,"blockWindows":12,"runs":2000,"seed":310}]}},{"horizonDays":1,"threshold":3,"available":94,"paired":94,"observed":15,"models":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.1340595744680851,"bias":0.060638297872340416,"coverage":1,"width":1.202127659574468,"maeMedian":0.1702127659574468},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.12625239361702129,"bias":0.011968085106382979,"coverage":1,"width":1.0957446808510638,"maeMedian":0.14893617021276595},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.13388351063829787,"bias":0.05968085106382978,"coverage":1,"width":1.1702127659574468,"maeMedian":0.1702127659574468},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.14891914893617023,"bias":0.06797872340425536,"coverage":0.9893617021276596,"width":1,"maeMedian":0.1595744680851064},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.14670239361702123,"bias":0.010265957446808522,"coverage":0.9787234042553191,"width":0.9787234042553191,"maeMedian":0.1595744680851064},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.14553138297872342,"bias":-0.0034042553191489474,"coverage":0.9680851063829787,"width":0.9361702127659575,"maeMedian":0.1595744680851064}},"versusRecentPoisson":{"frozenETAS":[{"mean":-0.012642819148936162,"low":-0.05597907579787233,"high":0.01830021276595746,"blockWindows":3,"runs":2000,"seed":310},{"mean":-0.012642819148936162,"low":-0.05565744680851063,"high":0.01708937499999998,"blockWindows":6,"runs":2000,"seed":310},{"mean":-0.012642819148936162,"low":-0.05203403590425532,"high":0.0163595079787234,"blockWindows":12,"runs":2000,"seed":310}],"rollingETAS":[{"mean":-0.020449999999999996,"low":-0.06467057845744678,"high":0.007243304521276592,"blockWindows":3,"runs":2000,"seed":310},{"mean":-0.020449999999999996,"low":-0.06259627659574467,"high":0.006431170212765948,"blockWindows":6,"runs":2000,"seed":310},{"mean":-0.020449999999999996,"low":-0.06013966090425532,"high":0.007017985372340403,"blockWindows":12,"runs":2000,"seed":310}],"unclippedParentsETAS":[{"mean":-0.01281888297872339,"low":-0.05901780585106383,"high":0.021696662234042544,"blockWindows":3,"runs":2000,"seed":310},{"mean":-0.01281888297872339,"low":-0.05898709441489361,"high":0.021091795212765947,"blockWindows":6,"runs":2000,"seed":310},{"mean":-0.01281888297872339,"low":-0.056206855053191486,"high":0.021314208776595737,"blockWindows":12,"runs":2000,"seed":310}],"expandingPoisson":[{"mean":0.002216755319148946,"low":-0.01089887632978723,"high":0.01436279920212767,"blockWindows":3,"runs":2000,"seed":310},{"mean":0.002216755319148946,"low":-0.012239029255319138,"high":0.014768457446808525,"blockWindows":6,"runs":2000,"seed":310},{"mean":0.002216755319148946,"low":-0.012191542553191473,"high":0.013759122340425542,"blockWindows":12,"runs":2000,"seed":310}],"recentNegativeBinomial":[{"mean":-0.0011710106382978671,"low":-0.014594634308510638,"high":0.013783989361702127,"blockWindows":3,"runs":2000,"seed":310},{"mean":-0.0011710106382978671,"low":-0.012385139627659567,"high":0.010365558510638287,"blockWindows":6,"runs":2000,"seed":310},{"mean":-0.0011710106382978671,"low":-0.009330658244680856,"high":0.0074790026595744795,"blockWindows":12,"runs":2000,"seed":310}]}},{"horizonDays":1,"threshold":4,"available":94,"paired":94,"observed":1,"models":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.01118191489361702,"bias":0.014574468085106384,"coverage":0.9893617021276596,"width":0.0425531914893617,"maeMedian":0.010638297872340425},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.010765691489361701,"bias":0.012819148936170213,"coverage":0.9893617021276596,"width":0.0425531914893617,"maeMedian":0.010638297872340425},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.011730319148936168,"bias":0.016914893617021285,"coverage":0.9893617021276596,"width":0.0425531914893617,"maeMedian":0.010638297872340425},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.010874202127659577,"bias":0.021010638297872343,"coverage":0.9893617021276596,"width":0.010638297872340425,"maeMedian":0.010638297872340425},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.010999468085106384,"bias":0.01148936170212766,"coverage":0.9893617021276596,"width":0.0425531914893617,"maeMedian":0.010638297872340425},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.01076595744680851,"bias":0.010957446808510638,"coverage":0.9893617021276596,"width":0,"maeMedian":0.010638297872340425}},"versusRecentPoisson":{"frozenETAS":[{"mean":0.00018244680851063795,"low":-0.00034231382978723427,"high":0.0007796210106382972,"blockWindows":3,"runs":2000,"seed":310},{"mean":0.00018244680851063795,"low":-0.00034964760638297917,"high":0.0007399867021276591,"blockWindows":6,"runs":2000,"seed":310},{"mean":0.00018244680851063795,"low":-0.0002665226063829794,"high":0.0005973603723404251,"blockWindows":12,"runs":2000,"seed":310}],"rollingETAS":[{"mean":-0.00023377659574468066,"low":-0.001394946808510638,"high":0.0007248537234042556,"blockWindows":3,"runs":2000,"seed":310},{"mean":-0.00023377659574468066,"low":-0.0012717287234042553,"high":0.0007157845744680854,"blockWindows":6,"runs":2000,"seed":310},{"mean":-0.00023377659574468066,"low":-0.0011529720744680848,"high":0.000608882978723404,"blockWindows":12,"runs":2000,"seed":310}],"unclippedParentsETAS":[{"mean":0.0007308510638297875,"low":-0.00010855053191489366,"high":0.0018192087765957449,"blockWindows":3,"runs":2000,"seed":310},{"mean":0.0007308510638297875,"low":-0.00011178191489361689,"high":0.001769700797872339,"blockWindows":6,"runs":2000,"seed":310},{"mean":0.0007308510638297875,"low":-0.00002054521276595766,"high":0.0015122539893617033,"blockWindows":12,"runs":2000,"seed":310}],"expandingPoisson":[{"mean":-0.0001252659574468079,"low":-0.0013487765957446805,"high":0.000606981382978724,"blockWindows":3,"runs":2000,"seed":310},{"mean":-0.0001252659574468079,"low":-0.0012675664893617026,"high":0.0006110039893617023,"blockWindows":6,"runs":2000,"seed":310},{"mean":-0.0001252659574468079,"low":-0.0012324933510638294,"high":0.0006484109042553199,"blockWindows":12,"runs":2000,"seed":310}],"recentNegativeBinomial":[{"mean":-0.00023351063829787162,"low":-0.00047369015957446744,"high":-0.000017546542553190222,"blockWindows":3,"runs":2000,"seed":310},{"mean":-0.00023351063829787162,"low":-0.000471316489361702,"high":-0.000028171542553190653,"blockWindows":6,"runs":2000,"seed":310},{"mean":-0.00023351063829787162,"low":-0.00048644281914893544,"high":-0.00003137632978723371,"blockWindows":12,"runs":2000,"seed":310}]}},{"horizonDays":7,"threshold":2,"available":94,"paired":94,"observed":658,"models":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":3.459055585106383,"bias":6.284414893617024,"coverage":0.9361702127659575,"width":26.98936170212766,"maeMedian":4.712765957446808},"rollingETAS":{"crps":2.388529521276596,"bias":2.1677127659574467,"coverage":0.9361702127659575,"width":17.617021276595743,"maeMedian":3.1117021276595747},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":3.5458518617021273,"bias":6.383670212765958,"coverage":0.8936170212765957,"width":26.638297872340427,"maeMedian":4.840425531914893},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":4.774190957446808,"bias":4.648936170212766,"coverage":0.4787234042553192,"width":10.946808510638299,"maeMedian":6.212765957446808},"recentPoisson":{"crps":2.839200531914894,"bias":0.6840425531914894,"coverage":0.7553191489361702,"width":8.861702127659575,"maeMedian":3.7074468085106385},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":2.842107446808511,"bias":0.7878723404255314,"coverage":0.9787234042553191,"width":24.27659574468085,"maeMedian":3.8031914893617023}},"versusRecentPoisson":{"frozenETAS":[{"mean":0.6198550531914891,"low":0.03590613031914884,"high":1.231449514627659,"blockWindows":3,"runs":2000,"seed":310},{"mean":0.6198550531914891,"low":-0.007752912234042653,"high":1.198197905585106,"blockWindows":6,"runs":2000,"seed":310},{"mean":0.6198550531914891,"low":-0.11162222074468084,"high":1.2797986569148936,"blockWindows":12,"runs":2000,"seed":310}],"rollingETAS":[{"mean":-0.45067101063829784,"low":-0.9875991090425531,"high":0.013319242021276566,"blockWindows":3,"runs":2000,"seed":310},{"mean":-0.45067101063829784,"low":-1.0973348670212764,"high":0.06064376329787216,"blockWindows":6,"runs":2000,"seed":310},{"mean":-0.45067101063829784,"low":-1.1568708776595746,"high":0.11843247340425521,"blockWindows":12,"runs":2000,"seed":310}],"unclippedParentsETAS":[{"mean":0.706651329787234,"low":0.22017379654255312,"high":1.2357903124999996,"blockWindows":3,"runs":2000,"seed":310},{"mean":0.706651329787234,"low":0.1611634175531915,"high":1.2073591223404252,"blockWindows":6,"runs":2000,"seed":310},{"mean":0.706651329787234,"low":0.09594926861702115,"high":1.2280678523936164,"blockWindows":12,"runs":2000,"seed":310}],"expandingPoisson":[{"mean":1.934990425531915,"low":1.2876497938829785,"high":2.555096835106383,"blockWindows":3,"runs":2000,"seed":310},{"mean":1.934990425531915,"low":1.17186875,"high":2.640766243351064,"blockWindows":6,"runs":2000,"seed":310},{"mean":1.934990425531915,"low":1.011265631648936,"high":2.7816408045212757,"blockWindows":12,"runs":2000,"seed":310}],"recentNegativeBinomial":[{"mean":0.0029069148936170966,"low":-0.4205085970744679,"high":0.43076708111702083,"blockWindows":3,"runs":2000,"seed":310},{"mean":0.0029069148936170966,"low":-0.5093648736702127,"high":0.47889760638297824,"blockWindows":6,"runs":2000,"seed":310},{"mean":0.0029069148936170966,"low":-0.49851307845744675,"high":0.4038613364361701,"blockWindows":12,"runs":2000,"seed":310}]}},{"horizonDays":7,"threshold":3,"available":94,"paired":94,"observed":90,"models":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.5846781914893617,"bias":0.6772340425531915,"coverage":1,"width":5.276595744680851,"maeMedian":0.7446808510638298},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.5085037234042553,"bias":0.24255319148936166,"coverage":0.9787234042553191,"width":3.9361702127659575,"maeMedian":0.7180851063829787},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.5798010638297871,"bias":0.6929787234042554,"coverage":1,"width":5,"maeMedian":0.7659574468085106},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.6549861702127658,"bias":0.626063829787234,"coverage":0.9787234042553191,"width":3.776595744680851,"maeMedian":0.8829787234042553},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.603180585106383,"bias":0.22281914893617025,"coverage":0.9893617021276596,"width":3.095744680851064,"maeMedian":0.8617021276595744},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.6194867021276597,"bias":0.20478723404255314,"coverage":1,"width":5.24468085106383,"maeMedian":0.9574468085106383}},"versusRecentPoisson":{"frozenETAS":[{"mean":-0.018502393617021273,"low":-0.11527875,"high":0.0742778789893616,"blockWindows":3,"runs":2000,"seed":310},{"mean":-0.018502393617021273,"low":-0.1343699135638298,"high":0.08079564494680838,"blockWindows":6,"runs":2000,"seed":310},{"mean":-0.018502393617021273,"low":-0.14326142287234045,"high":0.08158639627659571,"blockWindows":12,"runs":2000,"seed":310}],"rollingETAS":[{"mean":-0.0946768617021277,"low":-0.18782944813829786,"high":-0.020308384308510723,"blockWindows":3,"runs":2000,"seed":310},{"mean":-0.0946768617021277,"low":-0.1939160106382979,"high":-0.01646022606382983,"blockWindows":6,"runs":2000,"seed":310},{"mean":-0.0946768617021277,"low":-0.18388509973404252,"high":-0.02358752659574467,"blockWindows":12,"runs":2000,"seed":310}],"unclippedParentsETAS":[{"mean":-0.02337952127659573,"low":-0.11529787898936171,"high":0.07175360372340424,"blockWindows":3,"runs":2000,"seed":310},{"mean":-0.02337952127659573,"low":-0.13310609042553193,"high":0.07524998670212758,"blockWindows":6,"runs":2000,"seed":310},{"mean":-0.02337952127659573,"low":-0.13776306515957448,"high":0.06880156914893613,"blockWindows":12,"runs":2000,"seed":310}],"expandingPoisson":[{"mean":0.05180558510638301,"low":-0.040422386968085096,"high":0.13567485372340427,"blockWindows":3,"runs":2000,"seed":310},{"mean":0.05180558510638301,"low":-0.05529149601063828,"high":0.14580468085106382,"blockWindows":6,"runs":2000,"seed":310},{"mean":0.05180558510638301,"low":-0.0602048204787234,"high":0.13842083776595737,"blockWindows":12,"runs":2000,"seed":310}],"recentNegativeBinomial":[{"mean":0.016306117021276604,"low":-0.09227259308510638,"high":0.11445630319148924,"blockWindows":3,"runs":2000,"seed":310},{"mean":0.016306117021276604,"low":-0.09323582446808512,"high":0.12528187499999996,"blockWindows":6,"runs":2000,"seed":310},{"mean":0.016306117021276604,"low":-0.07528771276595743,"high":0.10944616356382977,"blockWindows":12,"runs":2000,"seed":310}]}},{"horizonDays":7,"threshold":4,"available":94,"paired":94,"observed":14,"models":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.14353776595744677,"bias":0.04351063829787235,"coverage":0.9893617021276596,"width":1.1063829787234043,"maeMedian":0.16489361702127658},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.1394992021276596,"bias":0.005691489361702124,"coverage":0.9680851063829787,"width":1.0319148936170213,"maeMedian":0.14893617021276595},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.14368829787234044,"bias":0.04414893617021277,"coverage":0.9787234042553191,"width":1.0638297872340425,"maeMedian":0.1702127659574468},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.13265425531914893,"bias":0.05031914893617022,"coverage":0.9787234042553191,"width":1.0106382978723405,"maeMedian":0.14893617021276595},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.13505186170212766,"bias":-0.0048404255319148964,"coverage":0.9680851063829787,"width":0.925531914893617,"maeMedian":0.14893617021276595},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.13765079787234044,"bias":-0.0016489361702127705,"coverage":0.9680851063829787,"width":1,"maeMedian":0.14893617021276595}},"versusRecentPoisson":{"frozenETAS":[{"mean":0.008485904255319148,"low":-0.002839075797872342,"high":0.02175924867021275,"blockWindows":3,"runs":2000,"seed":310},{"mean":0.008485904255319148,"low":-0.003556828457446807,"high":0.022825106382978716,"blockWindows":6,"runs":2000,"seed":310},{"mean":0.008485904255319148,"low":-0.0014003523936170195,"high":0.019765791223404248,"blockWindows":12,"runs":2000,"seed":310}],"rollingETAS":[{"mean":0.004447340425531914,"low":-0.0056131117021276595,"high":0.015581156914893618,"blockWindows":3,"runs":2000,"seed":310},{"mean":0.004447340425531914,"low":-0.005464833776595744,"high":0.01539580452127659,"blockWindows":6,"runs":2000,"seed":310},{"mean":0.004447340425531914,"low":-0.0030546675531914883,"high":0.012258211436170209,"blockWindows":12,"runs":2000,"seed":310}],"unclippedParentsETAS":[{"mean":0.00863643617021277,"low":-0.005416256648936159,"high":0.026516668882978718,"blockWindows":3,"runs":2000,"seed":310},{"mean":0.00863643617021277,"low":-0.005762885638297867,"high":0.02670028590425532,"blockWindows":6,"runs":2000,"seed":310},{"mean":0.00863643617021277,"low":-0.004269195478723398,"high":0.022750711436170214,"blockWindows":12,"runs":2000,"seed":310}],"expandingPoisson":[{"mean":-0.002397606382978724,"low":-0.0192495079787234,"high":0.010338643617021269,"blockWindows":3,"runs":2000,"seed":310},{"mean":-0.002397606382978724,"low":-0.01706527260638298,"high":0.010195751329787221,"blockWindows":6,"runs":2000,"seed":310},{"mean":-0.002397606382978724,"low":-0.013680538563829786,"high":0.00811970744680851,"blockWindows":12,"runs":2000,"seed":310}],"recentNegativeBinomial":[{"mean":0.0025989361702127645,"low":-0.004520691489361702,"high":0.009592393617021274,"blockWindows":3,"runs":2000,"seed":310},{"mean":0.0025989361702127645,"low":-0.005288291223404255,"high":0.01055505984042553,"blockWindows":6,"runs":2000,"seed":310},{"mean":0.0025989361702127645,"low":-0.004737726063829787,"high":0.009392406914893615,"blockWindows":12,"runs":2000,"seed":310}]}},{"horizonDays":30,"threshold":2,"available":94,"paired":94,"observed":3042,"models":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":20.65175877659574,"bias":27.043351063829785,"coverage":0.46808510638297873,"width":83.97872340425532,"maeMedian":27.6968085106383},"rollingETAS":{"crps":12.672360904255317,"bias":7.5802659574468105,"coverage":0.7446808510638298,"width":53.744680851063826,"maeMedian":16.74468085106383},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":21.559701063829788,"bias":27.786170212765953,"coverage":0.46808510638297873,"width":83.13829787234043,"maeMedian":28.829787234042552},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":22.768761436170212,"bias":17.65845744680851,"coverage":0.10638297872340426,"width":23.180851063829788,"maeMedian":26.345744680851062},"recentPoisson":{"crps":13.443119414893614,"bias":0.587606382978723,"coverage":0.4148936170212766,"width":18.74468085106383,"maeMedian":15.872340425531915},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":11.615106117021277,"bias":0.5550531914893612,"coverage":0.8829787234042553,"width":61.5531914893617,"maeMedian":14.202127659574469}},"versusRecentPoisson":{"frozenETAS":[{"mean":7.208639361702126,"low":4.659695259308511,"high":9.57110770611702,"blockWindows":3,"runs":2000,"seed":310},{"mean":7.208639361702126,"low":4.491674820478724,"high":9.695334474734041,"blockWindows":6,"runs":2000,"seed":310},{"mean":7.208639361702126,"low":4.563625644946808,"high":9.76950043218085,"blockWindows":12,"runs":2000,"seed":310}],"rollingETAS":[{"mean":-0.7707585106382978,"low":-3.2864451462765967,"high":1.5242200000000004,"blockWindows":3,"runs":2000,"seed":310},{"mean":-0.7707585106382978,"low":-3.9197045877659584,"high":2.147175365691489,"blockWindows":6,"runs":2000,"seed":310},{"mean":-0.7707585106382978,"low":-4.51065013962766,"high":2.630489361702127,"blockWindows":12,"runs":2000,"seed":310}],"unclippedParentsETAS":[{"mean":8.11658164893617,"low":5.450748656914894,"high":10.698259587765959,"blockWindows":3,"runs":2000,"seed":310},{"mean":8.11658164893617,"low":5.167512679521277,"high":10.808136263297872,"blockWindows":6,"runs":2000,"seed":310},{"mean":8.11658164893617,"low":5.452916948138298,"high":10.634334926861698,"blockWindows":12,"runs":2000,"seed":310}],"expandingPoisson":[{"mean":9.325642021276593,"low":5.453481309840426,"high":13.006084168882976,"blockWindows":3,"runs":2000,"seed":310},{"mean":9.325642021276593,"low":4.686388849734042,"high":13.690712632978723,"blockWindows":6,"runs":2000,"seed":310},{"mean":9.325642021276593,"low":3.977099527925533,"high":14.751846615691486,"blockWindows":12,"runs":2000,"seed":310}],"recentNegativeBinomial":[{"mean":-1.82801329787234,"low":-3.054533942819149,"high":-0.7189488164893619,"blockWindows":3,"runs":2000,"seed":310},{"mean":-1.82801329787234,"low":-3.379374734042553,"high":-0.5416599268617022,"blockWindows":6,"runs":2000,"seed":310},{"mean":-1.82801329787234,"low":-3.352707320478723,"high":-0.6657209973404257,"blockWindows":12,"runs":2000,"seed":310}]}},{"horizonDays":30,"threshold":3,"available":94,"paired":94,"observed":455,"models":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":3.0455324468085103,"bias":2.4365957446808504,"coverage":0.9042553191489362,"width":15.436170212765957,"maeMedian":3.9095744680851063},"rollingETAS":{"crps":2.736541223404256,"bias":0.45537234042553204,"coverage":0.8404255319148937,"width":11.308510638297872,"maeMedian":3.595744680851064},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":3.1320808510638303,"bias":2.522446808510638,"coverage":0.8723404255319149,"width":14.861702127659575,"maeMedian":4.111702127659575},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":3.5229460106382993,"bias":1.940159574468085,"coverage":0.574468085106383,"width":8.329787234042554,"maeMedian":4.569148936170213},"recentPoisson":{"crps":3.087382978723405,"bias":0.16851063829787222,"coverage":0.723404255319149,"width":7.085106382978723,"maeMedian":3.867021276595745},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":2.714403989361702,"bias":0.10771276595744685,"coverage":0.9361702127659575,"width":14.75531914893617,"maeMedian":3.393617021276596}},"versusRecentPoisson":{"frozenETAS":[{"mean":-0.041850531914893754,"low":-0.49789226728723435,"high":0.3721997340425529,"blockWindows":3,"runs":2000,"seed":310},{"mean":-0.041850531914893754,"low":-0.6140833710106383,"high":0.4383097207446803,"blockWindows":6,"runs":2000,"seed":310},{"mean":-0.041850531914893754,"low":-0.6094741422872341,"high":0.4712009707446805,"blockWindows":12,"runs":2000,"seed":310}],"rollingETAS":[{"mean":-0.3508417553191489,"low":-0.8099474002659572,"high":0.044084634308510576,"blockWindows":3,"runs":2000,"seed":310},{"mean":-0.3508417553191489,"low":-0.9472071276595746,"high":0.09867253989361706,"blockWindows":6,"runs":2000,"seed":310},{"mean":-0.3508417553191489,"low":-0.9825911835106383,"high":0.16071090425531906,"blockWindows":12,"runs":2000,"seed":310}],"unclippedParentsETAS":[{"mean":0.04469787234042543,"low":-0.4563501329787234,"high":0.5075672007978717,"blockWindows":3,"runs":2000,"seed":310},{"mean":0.04469787234042543,"low":-0.5421426462765958,"high":0.5809719946808503,"blockWindows":6,"runs":2000,"seed":310},{"mean":0.04469787234042543,"low":-0.5403495079787234,"high":0.5893681449468083,"blockWindows":12,"runs":2000,"seed":310}],"expandingPoisson":[{"mean":0.4355630319148936,"low":-0.10498090425531914,"high":0.9650963829787231,"blockWindows":3,"runs":2000,"seed":310},{"mean":0.4355630319148936,"low":-0.246021595744681,"high":1.0649338164893611,"blockWindows":6,"runs":2000,"seed":310},{"mean":0.4355630319148936,"low":-0.3459583643617022,"high":1.2232614893617018,"blockWindows":12,"runs":2000,"seed":310}],"recentNegativeBinomial":[{"mean":-0.3729789893617023,"low":-0.7644559042553194,"high":-0.0636785039893625,"blockWindows":3,"runs":2000,"seed":310},{"mean":-0.3729789893617023,"low":-0.895188736702128,"high":-0.026839009308510877,"blockWindows":6,"runs":2000,"seed":310},{"mean":-0.3729789893617023,"low":-0.8781385305851066,"high":-0.0341834375000005,"blockWindows":12,"runs":2000,"seed":310}]}},{"horizonDays":30,"threshold":4,"available":94,"paired":94,"observed":54,"models":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.46981489361702133,"bias":0.29244680851063826,"coverage":0.9893617021276596,"width":3.24468085106383,"maeMedian":0.7074468085106383},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.47045079787234034,"bias":0.10547872340425535,"coverage":0.9787234042553191,"width":2.627659574468085,"maeMedian":0.6276595744680851},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.48835531914893615,"bias":0.3071276595744681,"coverage":0.9893617021276596,"width":3.1382978723404253,"maeMedian":0.6808510638297872},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.4920218085106383,"bias":0.27989361702127663,"coverage":0.9787234042553191,"width":2.4680851063829787,"maeMedian":0.8563829787234043},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.4833755319148937,"bias":0.04872340425531913,"coverage":0.9574468085106383,"width":2,"maeMedian":0.6968085106382979},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.45818164893617025,"bias":0.03420212765957446,"coverage":0.9574468085106383,"width":2.5106382978723403,"maeMedian":0.6542553191489362}},"versusRecentPoisson":{"frozenETAS":[{"mean":-0.01356063829787233,"low":-0.06365855718085103,"high":0.032887234042553115,"blockWindows":3,"runs":2000,"seed":310},{"mean":-0.01356063829787233,"low":-0.07150440824468085,"high":0.03731959441489359,"blockWindows":6,"runs":2000,"seed":310},{"mean":-0.01356063829787233,"low":-0.06495683510638296,"high":0.02696831781914892,"blockWindows":12,"runs":2000,"seed":310}],"rollingETAS":[{"mean":-0.012924734042553171,"low":-0.07142286569148937,"high":0.037256017287234044,"blockWindows":3,"runs":2000,"seed":310},{"mean":-0.012924734042553171,"low":-0.07905802526595743,"high":0.043205964095744655,"blockWindows":6,"runs":2000,"seed":310},{"mean":-0.012924734042553171,"low":-0.07677336436170212,"high":0.03607086436170214,"blockWindows":12,"runs":2000,"seed":310}],"unclippedParentsETAS":[{"mean":0.0049797872340425495,"low":-0.04855067819148935,"high":0.0583718949468084,"blockWindows":3,"runs":2000,"seed":310},{"mean":0.0049797872340425495,"low":-0.05448905585106383,"high":0.05823261303191484,"blockWindows":6,"runs":2000,"seed":310},{"mean":0.0049797872340425495,"low":-0.04301351728723407,"high":0.04628278590425529,"blockWindows":12,"runs":2000,"seed":310}],"expandingPoisson":[{"mean":0.008646276595744684,"low":-0.05450277925531913,"high":0.06937762632978718,"blockWindows":3,"runs":2000,"seed":310},{"mean":0.008646276595744684,"low":-0.05727406250000001,"high":0.07465790558510632,"blockWindows":6,"runs":2000,"seed":310},{"mean":0.008646276595744684,"low":-0.05472520611702128,"high":0.0735106914893617,"blockWindows":12,"runs":2000,"seed":310}],"recentNegativeBinomial":[{"mean":-0.025193882978723384,"low":-0.06678678191489361,"high":0.00808042553191491,"blockWindows":3,"runs":2000,"seed":310},{"mean":-0.025193882978723384,"low":-0.07872773271276592,"high":0.010547167553191482,"blockWindows":6,"runs":2000,"seed":310},{"mean":-0.025193882978723384,"low":-0.08216668882978723,"high":0.00859044547872341,"blockWindows":12,"runs":2000,"seed":310}]}}],"limitations":["The catalog and some outcomes were inspected previously; no untouched retrospective holdout can now be claimed.","2014 eligibility was chosen retrospectively, not historically as issued.","Native AFAD magnitude scales remain mixed.","New prospective windows must elapse before prospective validation is possible.","Rolling variant refits a stationary model annually on the previous three years; it is not penalized nonstationary ETAS.","Unclipped-parent variant changes historical productivity only without refitting: sensitivity, not a new validated model.","Same simulated catalogs are thresholded for M2/M3/M4, preserving nested counts.","Finite-sample zero mass has unresolved log score; never average only the favorable resolved cells. CRPS is primary.","Block intervals are exploratory and not adjusted for multiple comparisons. No winner selected.","Counts in overlapping horizons and activity regimes are dependent; observed sums are not distinct event totals."],"folds":[{"issuedAt":1546300800000,"validUntil":1546387200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":2,"actual":1,"trainingCount":3789,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2019","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.5916249999999998,"mean":2.485,"median":2,"bias":1.4849999999999999,"maeMean":1.4849999999999999,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":7,"coverage":true,"width":7,"pitLower":0.28,"pitUpper":0.47,"empiricalMass":0.19,"logScore":1.6607312068216509},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.4112,"mean":1.79,"median":1,"bias":0.79,"maeMean":0.79,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":6,"coverage":true,"width":6,"pitLower":0.335,"pitUpper":0.565,"empiricalMass":0.23,"logScore":1.4696759700589417},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.4135749999999998,"mean":2.035,"median":1,"bias":1.0350000000000001,"maeMean":1.0350000000000001,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":6,"coverage":true,"width":6,"pitLower":0.245,"pitUpper":0.51,"empiricalMass":0.265,"logScore":1.3280254529959148},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.46429999999999993,"mean":1.97,"median":2,"bias":0.97,"maeMean":0.97,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.115,"pitUpper":0.405,"empiricalMass":0.29,"logScore":1.2378743560016174},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.254525,"mean":1.295,"median":1,"bias":0.29499999999999993,"maeMean":0.29499999999999993,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.29,"pitUpper":0.615,"empiricalMass":0.325,"logScore":1.1239300966523995},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.32205000000000006,"mean":0.93,"median":1,"bias":-0.06999999999999995,"maeMean":0.06999999999999995,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.49,"pitUpper":0.74,"empiricalMass":0.25,"logScore":1.3862943611198906}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.28,"1":0.19,"2":0.19,"3":0.09,"4":0.085,"5":0.045,"6":0.05,"7":0.025,"8":0.01,"9":0.005,"10":0.005,"14":0.01,"18":0.005,"19":0.005,"21":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.335,"1":0.23,"2":0.17,"3":0.11,"4":0.065,"5":0.03,"6":0.01,"7":0.02,"8":0.015,"9":0.005,"10":0.005,"13":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.245,"1":0.265,"2":0.22,"3":0.115,"4":0.065,"5":0.03,"6":0.015,"7":0.01,"8":0.015,"9":0.005,"12":0.005,"15":0.005,"23":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.115,"1":0.29,"2":0.315,"3":0.155,"4":0.075,"5":0.03,"6":0.01,"7":0.005,"8":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.29,"1":0.325,"2":0.245,"3":0.09,"4":0.04,"5":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.49,"1":0.25,"2":0.145,"3":0.085,"4":0.015,"5":0.015}}},{"issuedAt":1546300800000,"validUntil":1546387200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":3,"actual":0,"trainingCount":3789,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2019","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.05527500000000002,"mean":0.365,"median":0,"bias":0.365,"maeMean":0.365,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.78,"empiricalMass":0.78,"logScore":0.2484613592984996},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.03115000000000001,"mean":0.23,"median":0,"bias":0.23,"maeMean":0.23,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.83,"empiricalMass":0.83,"logScore":0.18632957819149348},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.027074999999999988,"mean":0.215,"median":0,"bias":0.215,"maeMean":0.215,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.84,"empiricalMass":0.84,"logScore":0.1743533871447778},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.057999999999999996,"mean":0.26,"median":0,"bias":0.26,"maeMean":0.26,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.76,"empiricalMass":0.76,"logScore":0.2744368457017603},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.02915000000000001,"mean":0.19,"median":0,"bias":0.19,"maeMean":0.19,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.83,"empiricalMass":0.83,"logScore":0.18632957819149348},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.01874999999999999,"mean":0.19,"median":0,"bias":0.19,"maeMean":0.19,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.875,"empiricalMass":0.875,"logScore":0.13353139262452263}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.78,"1":0.15,"2":0.035,"3":0.01,"4":0.015,"5":0.005,"6":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.83,"1":0.125,"2":0.03,"3":0.015},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.84,"1":0.125,"2":0.02,"3":0.01,"4":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.76,"1":0.22,"2":0.02},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.83,"1":0.155,"2":0.01,"3":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.875,"1":0.07,"2":0.045,"3":0.01}}},{"issuedAt":1546300800000,"validUntil":1546387200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":3789,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2019","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.002050000000000003,"mean":0.05,"median":0,"bias":0.05,"maeMean":0.05,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.955,"empiricalMass":0.955,"logScore":0.046043938501406846},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.0006250000000000006,"mean":0.025,"median":0,"bias":0.025,"maeMean":0.025,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.975,"empiricalMass":0.975,"logScore":0.025317807984289897},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.0002500000000000002,"mean":0.02,"median":0,"bias":0.02,"maeMean":0.02,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.985,"empiricalMass":0.985,"logScore":0.015113637810048184},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.0016000000000000042,"mean":0.04,"median":0,"bias":0.04,"maeMean":0.04,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.96,"empiricalMass":0.96,"logScore":0.040821994520255166},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.0000999999999999994,"mean":0.01,"median":0,"bias":0.01,"maeMean":0.01,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.99,"empiricalMass":0.99,"logScore":0.01005033585350145},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.0002249999999999995,"mean":0.015,"median":0,"bias":0.015,"maeMean":0.015,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.985,"empiricalMass":0.985,"logScore":0.015113637810048184}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.955,"1":0.04,"2":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.975,"1":0.025},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.985,"1":0.01,"2":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.96,"1":0.04},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.99,"1":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.985,"1":0.015}}},{"issuedAt":1546300800000,"validUntil":1546905600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":2,"actual":12,"trainingCount":3789,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2019","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":1.74545,"mean":14.23,"median":11,"bias":2.2300000000000004,"maeMean":2.2300000000000004,"maeMedian":1,"low":5,"high":32,"coverage":true,"width":27,"pitLower":0.525,"pitUpper":0.58,"empiricalMass":0.055,"logScore":2.900422093749666},"rollingETAS":{"crps":2.164625,"mean":17.275,"median":13,"bias":5.274999999999999,"maeMean":5.274999999999999,"maeMedian":1,"low":4,"high":39,"coverage":true,"width":35,"pitLower":0.425,"pitUpper":0.47,"empiricalMass":0.045,"logScore":3.101092789211817},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":2.023925,"mean":16.315,"median":13,"bias":4.315000000000001,"maeMean":4.315000000000001,"maeMedian":1,"low":5,"high":39,"coverage":true,"width":34,"pitLower":0.43,"pitUpper":0.475,"empiricalMass":0.045,"logScore":3.101092789211817},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":1.4507749999999997,"mean":14.435,"median":14,"bias":2.4350000000000005,"maeMean":2.4350000000000005,"maeMedian":2,"low":8,"high":21,"coverage":true,"width":13,"pitLower":0.21,"pitUpper":0.325,"empiricalMass":0.115,"logScore":2.162823150618887},"recentPoisson":{"crps":2.6244250000000005,"mean":8.035,"median":8,"bias":-3.965,"maeMean":3.965,"maeMedian":4,"low":4,"high":12,"coverage":true,"width":8,"pitLower":0.9,"pitUpper":0.95,"empiricalMass":0.05,"logScore":2.995732273553991},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":2.8954750000000002,"mean":7.645,"median":7,"bias":-4.355,"maeMean":4.355,"maeMedian":5,"low":3,"high":14,"coverage":true,"width":11,"pitLower":0.86,"pitUpper":0.915,"empiricalMass":0.055,"logScore":2.900422093749666}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"2":0.01,"3":0.015,"4":0.01,"5":0.04,"6":0.075,"7":0.075,"8":0.08,"9":0.085,"10":0.08,"11":0.055,"12":0.055,"13":0.045,"14":0.045,"15":0.03,"16":0.015,"17":0.045,"18":0.015,"19":0.025,"20":0.015,"21":0.02,"22":0.03,"23":0.01,"24":0.01,"25":0.005,"26":0.01,"27":0.005,"28":0.015,"29":0.015,"31":0.005,"32":0.01,"34":0.005,"35":0.015,"43":0.005,"48":0.005,"49":0.005,"51":0.005,"59":0.005,"84":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"2":0.005,"3":0.02,"4":0.035,"5":0.025,"6":0.06,"7":0.065,"8":0.05,"9":0.06,"10":0.065,"11":0.04,"12":0.045,"13":0.07,"14":0.045,"15":0.035,"16":0.03,"17":0.025,"18":0.045,"19":0.03,"20":0.01,"21":0.025,"22":0.015,"23":0.01,"24":0.01,"25":0.015,"26":0.015,"27":0.01,"28":0.02,"29":0.005,"30":0.015,"31":0.005,"33":0.005,"34":0.005,"35":0.01,"36":0.015,"38":0.005,"39":0.005,"46":0.005,"50":0.01,"51":0.005,"52":0.005,"63":0.005,"68":0.005,"77":0.005,"88":0.005,"200":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"3":0.005,"4":0.015,"5":0.03,"6":0.05,"7":0.06,"8":0.06,"9":0.075,"10":0.075,"11":0.06,"12":0.045,"13":0.045,"14":0.04,"15":0.04,"16":0.05,"17":0.055,"18":0.03,"19":0.02,"20":0.02,"21":0.015,"22":0.025,"23":0.005,"24":0.015,"25":0.015,"26":0.03,"27":0.005,"28":0.01,"29":0.005,"31":0.015,"32":0.01,"34":0.005,"36":0.005,"37":0.01,"39":0.005,"40":0.005,"43":0.005,"44":0.005,"46":0.005,"48":0.005,"54":0.005,"55":0.005,"59":0.005,"62":0.005,"91":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"4":0.005,"5":0.005,"6":0.025,"7":0.01,"8":0.04,"9":0.03,"10":0.03,"11":0.065,"12":0.115,"13":0.1,"14":0.105,"15":0.09,"16":0.05,"17":0.085,"18":0.085,"19":0.065,"20":0.03,"21":0.025,"22":0.015,"23":0.01,"24":0.01,"26":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"2":0.01,"3":0.035,"4":0.05,"5":0.065,"6":0.115,"7":0.185,"8":0.12,"9":0.135,"10":0.085,"11":0.1,"12":0.05,"13":0.035,"14":0.005,"15":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"1":0.01,"2":0.02,"3":0.06,"4":0.08,"5":0.1,"6":0.105,"7":0.16,"8":0.095,"9":0.12,"10":0.055,"11":0.055,"12":0.055,"13":0.03,"14":0.035,"15":0.015,"17":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1546300800000,"validUntil":1546905600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":3,"actual":2,"trainingCount":3789,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2019","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.6096999999999999,"mean":1.71,"median":1,"bias":-0.29000000000000004,"maeMean":0.29000000000000004,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":6,"coverage":true,"width":6,"pitLower":0.625,"pitUpper":0.77,"empiricalMass":0.145,"logScore":1.9310215365615626},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.5738750000000001,"mean":2.425,"median":1,"bias":0.4249999999999998,"maeMean":0.4249999999999998,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":7,"coverage":true,"width":7,"pitLower":0.51,"pitUpper":0.645,"empiricalMass":0.135,"logScore":2.0024805005437076},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.47475,"mean":2.16,"median":1,"bias":0.16000000000000014,"maeMean":0.16000000000000014,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":6,"coverage":true,"width":6,"pitLower":0.515,"pitUpper":0.705,"empiricalMass":0.19,"logScore":1.6607312068216509},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.308025,"mean":2.155,"median":2,"bias":0.1549999999999998,"maeMean":0.1549999999999998,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.38,"pitUpper":0.66,"empiricalMass":0.28,"logScore":1.2729656758128873},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.6175499999999999,"mean":1.06,"median":1,"bias":-0.94,"maeMean":0.94,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.695,"pitUpper":0.91,"empiricalMass":0.215,"logScore":1.5371172508544744},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.58965,"mean":1.16,"median":1,"bias":-0.8400000000000001,"maeMean":0.8400000000000001,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.67,"pitUpper":0.87,"empiricalMass":0.2,"logScore":1.6094379124341003}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.34,"1":0.285,"2":0.145,"3":0.06,"4":0.055,"5":0.035,"6":0.045,"7":0.01,"8":0.015,"10":0.01},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.285,"1":0.225,"2":0.135,"3":0.105,"4":0.105,"5":0.04,"6":0.035,"7":0.02,"8":0.015,"9":0.005,"10":0.005,"12":0.005,"13":0.01,"18":0.005,"30":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.25,"1":0.265,"2":0.19,"3":0.115,"4":0.065,"5":0.03,"6":0.035,"7":0.005,"8":0.02,"9":0.005,"11":0.005,"15":0.005,"18":0.01},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.1,"1":0.28,"2":0.28,"3":0.165,"4":0.095,"5":0.05,"6":0.02,"7":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.355,"1":0.34,"2":0.215,"3":0.07,"4":0.02},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.35,"1":0.32,"2":0.2,"3":0.095,"4":0.025,"5":0.005,"6":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1546300800000,"validUntil":1546905600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":3789,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2019","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.029350000000000015,"mean":0.2,"median":0,"bias":0.2,"maeMean":0.2,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.83,"empiricalMass":0.83,"logScore":0.18632957819149348},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.04747499999999999,"mean":0.315,"median":0,"bias":0.315,"maeMean":0.315,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.79,"empiricalMass":0.79,"logScore":0.23572233352106983},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.038825,"mean":0.255,"median":0,"bias":0.255,"maeMean":0.255,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.81,"empiricalMass":0.81,"logScore":0.21072103131565253},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.04327500000000001,"mean":0.245,"median":0,"bias":0.245,"maeMean":0.245,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.795,"empiricalMass":0.795,"logScore":0.2294131643278051},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.021049999999999985,"mean":0.15,"median":0,"bias":0.15,"maeMean":0.15,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.855,"empiricalMass":0.855,"logScore":0.15665381004537685},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.0121,"mean":0.11,"median":0,"bias":0.11,"maeMean":0.11,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.89,"empiricalMass":0.89,"logScore":0.11653381625595151}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.83,"1":0.15,"2":0.015,"4":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.79,"1":0.16,"2":0.025,"3":0.015,"5":0.005,"7":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.81,"1":0.14,"2":0.035,"3":0.015},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.795,"1":0.17,"2":0.03,"3":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.855,"1":0.14,"2":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.89,"1":0.11}}},{"issuedAt":1546300800000,"validUntil":1548892800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":2,"actual":27,"trainingCount":3789,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2019","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":25.9379,"mean":68.54,"median":61.5,"bias":41.540000000000006,"maeMean":41.540000000000006,"maeMedian":34.5,"low":33,"high":138,"coverage":false,"width":105,"pitLower":0.02,"pitUpper":0.02,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"rollingETAS":{"crps":24.103650000000002,"mean":68.12,"median":60.5,"bias":41.120000000000005,"maeMean":41.120000000000005,"maeMedian":33.5,"low":32,"high":136,"coverage":false,"width":104,"pitLower":0.025,"pitUpper":0.025,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":23.9709,"mean":67.38,"median":60,"bias":40.379999999999995,"maeMean":40.379999999999995,"maeMedian":33,"low":32,"high":127,"coverage":false,"width":95,"pitLower":0.02,"pitUpper":0.025,"empiricalMass":0.005,"logScore":5.298317366548036},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":31.37235,"mean":62.78,"median":63,"bias":35.78,"maeMean":35.78,"maeMedian":36,"low":50,"high":75,"coverage":false,"width":25,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentPoisson":{"crps":4.506500000000001,"mean":34.39,"median":34,"bias":7.390000000000001,"maeMean":7.390000000000001,"maeMedian":7,"low":25,"high":45,"coverage":true,"width":20,"pitLower":0.1,"pitUpper":0.12,"empiricalMass":0.02,"logScore":3.912023005428146},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":3.933775,"mean":33.935,"median":33,"bias":6.935000000000002,"maeMean":6.935000000000002,"maeMedian":6,"low":23,"high":47,"coverage":true,"width":24,"pitLower":0.15,"pitUpper":0.205,"empiricalMass":0.055,"logScore":2.900422093749666}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"19":0.005,"25":0.005,"26":0.01,"29":0.005,"30":0.01,"32":0.01,"33":0.01,"34":0.005,"36":0.025,"37":0.005,"38":0.01,"39":0.005,"40":0.015,"41":0.01,"42":0.015,"43":0.02,"44":0.025,"45":0.015,"46":0.015,"47":0.015,"48":0.02,"49":0.02,"50":0.025,"51":0.02,"52":0.025,"53":0.02,"54":0.02,"55":0.015,"56":0.02,"57":0.03,"58":0.005,"59":0.02,"60":0.01,"61":0.015,"62":0.01,"63":0.005,"64":0.02,"65":0.02,"66":0.025,"67":0.025,"68":0.005,"69":0.01,"70":0.015,"71":0.01,"72":0.02,"73":0.02,"74":0.01,"75":0.005,"77":0.025,"78":0.005,"79":0.005,"80":0.01,"82":0.015,"83":0.005,"84":0.005,"85":0.01,"86":0.005,"87":0.01,"90":0.005,"91":0.01,"92":0.005,"93":0.005,"95":0.015,"96":0.005,"97":0.005,"98":0.015,"99":0.005,"101":0.01,"102":0.01,"103":0.005,"104":0.01,"111":0.005,"116":0.005,"118":0.005,"119":0.005,"125":0.005,"127":0.01,"129":0.005,"131":0.005,"138":0.01,"139":0.005,"140":0.005,"141":0.005,"142":0.005,"143":0.005,"154":0.005,"157":0.005,"159":0.005,"162":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"17":0.005,"18":0.005,"23":0.005,"25":0.005,"26":0.005,"28":0.005,"30":0.015,"32":0.005,"33":0.005,"34":0.015,"35":0.015,"36":0.005,"37":0.02,"38":0.015,"39":0.01,"40":0.015,"41":0.02,"42":0.02,"43":0.01,"44":0.025,"45":0.025,"46":0.02,"47":0.02,"48":0.04,"49":0.015,"50":0.01,"51":0.015,"52":0.015,"53":0.02,"54":0.01,"55":0.005,"56":0.02,"57":0.015,"58":0.015,"59":0.015,"60":0.015,"61":0.03,"62":0.04,"63":0.005,"64":0.02,"65":0.025,"66":0.01,"68":0.005,"69":0.02,"71":0.01,"72":0.015,"73":0.025,"74":0.015,"75":0.005,"77":0.01,"79":0.01,"80":0.01,"81":0.01,"83":0.015,"87":0.01,"88":0.01,"90":0.01,"91":0.01,"92":0.005,"93":0.01,"94":0.01,"96":0.01,"98":0.005,"102":0.01,"106":0.005,"107":0.01,"109":0.015,"112":0.005,"118":0.01,"122":0.005,"126":0.005,"129":0.005,"130":0.005,"131":0.005,"134":0.005,"136":0.005,"144":0.005,"146":0.01,"152":0.005,"153":0.005,"158":0.005,"170":0.005,"181":0.005,"216":0.005,"227":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"22":0.005,"23":0.005,"25":0.005,"26":0.005,"27":0.005,"28":0.005,"29":0.005,"32":0.025,"33":0.015,"34":0.01,"35":0.015,"36":0.005,"37":0.015,"38":0.02,"39":0.015,"40":0.015,"41":0.005,"42":0.005,"43":0.015,"44":0.02,"45":0.015,"46":0.03,"47":0.02,"48":0.035,"49":0.03,"50":0.01,"51":0.03,"52":0.025,"53":0.01,"54":0.02,"55":0.01,"56":0.015,"57":0.025,"58":0.005,"60":0.01,"61":0.015,"62":0.035,"63":0.01,"64":0.01,"65":0.02,"66":0.01,"67":0.005,"68":0.01,"69":0.015,"71":0.01,"72":0.01,"73":0.015,"74":0.015,"75":0.005,"76":0.01,"77":0.01,"78":0.015,"79":0.005,"80":0.01,"81":0.005,"82":0.015,"83":0.01,"84":0.005,"85":0.005,"86":0.005,"87":0.01,"88":0.01,"90":0.005,"92":0.005,"94":0.015,"95":0.01,"98":0.02,"99":0.005,"101":0.005,"103":0.01,"104":0.005,"106":0.005,"107":0.01,"108":0.005,"112":0.01,"114":0.005,"116":0.01,"117":0.005,"123":0.005,"124":0.005,"127":0.005,"132":0.005,"134":0.005,"136":0.01,"138":0.005,"164":0.005,"178":0.005,"179":0.005,"186":0.005,"202":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"44":0.015,"47":0.005,"48":0.01,"49":0.01,"50":0.01,"51":0.03,"52":0.02,"53":0.015,"54":0.035,"55":0.035,"56":0.05,"57":0.035,"58":0.035,"59":0.025,"60":0.05,"61":0.06,"62":0.05,"63":0.03,"64":0.055,"65":0.07,"66":0.02,"67":0.05,"68":0.045,"69":0.03,"70":0.05,"71":0.04,"72":0.01,"73":0.02,"74":0.025,"75":0.015,"76":0.015,"77":0.01,"78":0.005,"79":0.005,"80":0.005,"81":0.005,"84":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"20":0.01,"21":0.005,"22":0.015,"24":0.015,"25":0.02,"26":0.035,"27":0.02,"28":0.045,"29":0.055,"30":0.055,"31":0.06,"32":0.06,"33":0.07,"34":0.06,"35":0.055,"36":0.06,"37":0.065,"38":0.055,"39":0.045,"40":0.03,"41":0.02,"42":0.035,"43":0.025,"44":0.025,"45":0.025,"46":0.01,"47":0.005,"48":0.01,"51":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"16":0.005,"19":0.005,"20":0.01,"21":0.015,"22":0.005,"23":0.03,"24":0.025,"25":0.035,"26":0.02,"27":0.055,"28":0.025,"29":0.06,"30":0.045,"31":0.06,"32":0.06,"33":0.055,"34":0.06,"35":0.03,"36":0.03,"37":0.045,"38":0.07,"39":0.025,"40":0.055,"41":0.015,"42":0.04,"43":0.025,"44":0.02,"45":0.015,"46":0.005,"47":0.01,"48":0.01,"49":0.005,"50":0.005,"51":0.005,"52":0.005,"53":0.015}}},{"issuedAt":1546300800000,"validUntil":1548892800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":3,"actual":3,"trainingCount":3789,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2019","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":2.97545,"mean":8.6,"median":7,"bias":5.6,"maeMean":5.6,"maeMedian":4,"low":2,"high":19,"coverage":true,"width":17,"pitLower":0.075,"pitUpper":0.16,"empiricalMass":0.085,"logScore":2.4651040224918206},"rollingETAS":{"crps":3.153375,"mean":9.125,"median":7,"bias":6.125,"maeMean":6.125,"maeMedian":4,"low":2,"high":20,"coverage":true,"width":18,"pitLower":0.08,"pitUpper":0.13,"empiricalMass":0.05,"logScore":2.995732273553991},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":2.7385500000000005,"mean":8.45,"median":7,"bias":5.449999999999999,"maeMean":5.449999999999999,"maeMedian":4,"low":2,"high":19,"coverage":true,"width":17,"pitLower":0.085,"pitUpper":0.175,"empiricalMass":0.09,"logScore":2.4079456086518722},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":3.7611999999999997,"mean":8.37,"median":8,"bias":5.369999999999999,"maeMean":5.369999999999999,"maeMedian":5,"low":4,"high":13,"coverage":false,"width":9,"pitLower":0.005,"pitUpper":0.035,"empiricalMass":0.03,"logScore":3.506557897319982},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.976275,"mean":4.785,"median":5,"bias":1.7850000000000001,"maeMean":1.7850000000000001,"maeMedian":2,"low":1,"high":9,"coverage":true,"width":8,"pitLower":0.15,"pitUpper":0.295,"empiricalMass":0.145,"logScore":1.9310215365615626},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.9365999999999999,"mean":4.91,"median":4,"bias":1.9100000000000001,"maeMean":1.9100000000000001,"maeMedian":1,"low":1,"high":11,"coverage":true,"width":10,"pitLower":0.195,"pitUpper":0.355,"empiricalMass":0.16,"logScore":1.8325814637483102}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.005,"1":0.03,"2":0.04,"3":0.085,"4":0.05,"5":0.08,"6":0.125,"7":0.11,"8":0.065,"9":0.055,"10":0.065,"11":0.055,"12":0.035,"13":0.03,"14":0.02,"15":0.02,"16":0.03,"17":0.015,"18":0.015,"19":0.025,"20":0.025,"21":0.005,"23":0.005,"24":0.005,"27":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.005,"1":0.015,"2":0.06,"3":0.05,"4":0.065,"5":0.105,"6":0.08,"7":0.125,"8":0.085,"9":0.065,"10":0.045,"11":0.03,"12":0.04,"13":0.065,"14":0.015,"15":0.02,"16":0.005,"17":0.015,"18":0.005,"19":0.035,"20":0.02,"21":0.005,"22":0.01,"23":0.01,"24":0.005,"27":0.005,"31":0.005,"36":0.005,"37":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.005,"1":0.025,"2":0.055,"3":0.09,"4":0.06,"5":0.135,"6":0.065,"7":0.085,"8":0.08,"9":0.07,"10":0.055,"11":0.04,"12":0.04,"13":0.02,"14":0.04,"15":0.035,"16":0.01,"17":0.015,"18":0.02,"19":0.025,"21":0.005,"23":0.01,"29":0.005,"30":0.005,"36":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"1":0.005,"3":0.03,"4":0.055,"5":0.065,"6":0.11,"7":0.13,"8":0.16,"9":0.12,"10":0.115,"11":0.055,"12":0.07,"13":0.045,"14":0.02,"15":0.005,"17":0.005,"18":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.005,"1":0.05,"2":0.095,"3":0.145,"4":0.17,"5":0.2,"6":0.135,"7":0.1,"8":0.04,"9":0.025,"10":0.015,"11":0.015,"12":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.025,"1":0.075,"2":0.095,"3":0.16,"4":0.17,"5":0.12,"6":0.1,"7":0.085,"8":0.05,"9":0.04,"10":0.025,"11":0.01,"12":0.025,"13":0.01,"14":0.01}}},{"issuedAt":1546300800000,"validUntil":1548892800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":3789,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2019","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.4165,"mean":1.01,"median":1,"bias":1.01,"maeMean":1.01,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.415,"empiricalMass":0.415,"logScore":0.8794767587514388},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.4671750000000001,"mean":1.205,"median":1,"bias":1.205,"maeMean":1.205,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.41,"empiricalMass":0.41,"logScore":0.8915981192837836},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.464125,"mean":1.155,"median":1,"bias":1.155,"maeMean":1.155,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.4,"empiricalMass":0.4,"logScore":0.916290731874155},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.5145500000000001,"mean":1.06,"median":1,"bias":1.06,"maeMean":1.06,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.355,"empiricalMass":0.355,"logScore":1.0356374895067213},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.15355000000000002,"mean":0.54,"median":0,"bias":0.54,"maeMean":0.54,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.63,"empiricalMass":0.63,"logScore":0.4620354595965587},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.246,"mean":0.6,"median":0,"bias":0.6,"maeMean":0.6,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.51,"empiricalMass":0.51,"logScore":0.6733445532637656}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.415,"1":0.35,"2":0.105,"3":0.085,"4":0.035,"5":0.005,"6":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.41,"1":0.3,"2":0.13,"3":0.085,"4":0.02,"5":0.03,"6":0.015,"7":0.01},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.4,"1":0.315,"2":0.155,"3":0.06,"4":0.045,"5":0.01,"6":0.005,"8":0.005,"10":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.355,"1":0.345,"2":0.21,"3":0.07,"4":0.015,"5":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.63,"1":0.245,"2":0.095,"3":0.02,"4":0.005,"5":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.51,"1":0.42,"2":0.04,"3":0.02,"4":0.01}}},{"issuedAt":1548892800000,"validUntil":1548979200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":2,"actual":0,"trainingCount":3816,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2019","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.5691250000000001,"mean":1.455,"median":1,"bias":1.455,"maeMean":1.455,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.36,"empiricalMass":0.36,"logScore":1.0216512475319814},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.5264,"mean":1.48,"median":1,"bias":1.48,"maeMean":1.48,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.39,"empiricalMass":0.39,"logScore":0.941608539858445},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.5672,"mean":1.49,"median":1,"bias":1.49,"maeMean":1.49,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.38,"empiricalMass":0.38,"logScore":0.9675840262617056},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":1.3095,"mean":2.1,"median":2,"bias":2.1,"maeMean":2.1,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.145,"empiricalMass":0.145,"logScore":1.9310215365615626},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.507625,"mean":1.055,"median":1,"bias":1.055,"maeMean":1.055,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.345,"empiricalMass":0.345,"logScore":1.0642108619507773},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.3843500000000001,"mean":1.03,"median":1,"bias":1.03,"maeMean":1.03,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.465,"empiricalMass":0.465,"logScore":0.7657178733947807}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.36,"1":0.31,"2":0.155,"3":0.075,"4":0.025,"5":0.03,"6":0.01,"7":0.01,"8":0.005,"9":0.01,"10":0.01},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.39,"1":0.295,"2":0.14,"3":0.065,"4":0.03,"5":0.035,"6":0.005,"7":0.005,"8":0.01,"9":0.01,"10":0.005,"12":0.005,"14":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.38,"1":0.245,"2":0.225,"3":0.04,"4":0.045,"5":0.025,"6":0.02,"7":0.005,"12":0.005,"13":0.005,"18":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.145,"1":0.22,"2":0.255,"3":0.215,"4":0.105,"5":0.055,"6":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.345,"1":0.395,"2":0.16,"3":0.07,"4":0.02,"5":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.465,"1":0.255,"2":0.15,"3":0.08,"4":0.035,"5":0.01,"9":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1548892800000,"validUntil":1548979200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":3,"actual":0,"trainingCount":3816,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2019","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.028624999999999984,"mean":0.215,"median":0,"bias":0.215,"maeMean":0.215,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.84,"empiricalMass":0.84,"logScore":0.1743533871447778},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.019224999999999992,"mean":0.175,"median":0,"bias":0.175,"maeMean":0.175,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.865,"empiricalMass":0.865,"logScore":0.14502577205025774},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.012974999999999987,"mean":0.155,"median":0,"bias":0.155,"maeMean":0.155,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.89,"empiricalMass":0.89,"logScore":0.11653381625595151},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.04535,"mean":0.25,"median":0,"bias":0.25,"maeMean":0.25,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.79,"empiricalMass":0.79,"logScore":0.23572233352106983},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.024125000000000008,"mean":0.165,"median":0,"bias":0.165,"maeMean":0.165,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.845,"empiricalMass":0.845,"logScore":0.16841865162496325},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.022925,"mean":0.175,"median":0,"bias":0.175,"maeMean":0.175,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.85,"empiricalMass":0.85,"logScore":0.16251892949777494}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.84,"1":0.105,"2":0.055},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.865,"1":0.105,"2":0.02,"3":0.01},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.89,"1":0.085,"2":0.01,"3":0.01,"4":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.79,"1":0.175,"2":0.03,"3":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.845,"1":0.145,"2":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.85,"1":0.13,"2":0.015,"3":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1548892800000,"validUntil":1548979200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":3816,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2019","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.0002249999999999995,"mean":0.015,"median":0,"bias":0.015,"maeMean":0.015,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.985,"empiricalMass":0.985,"logScore":0.015113637810048184},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.0006499999999999978,"mean":0.03,"median":0,"bias":0.03,"maeMean":0.03,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.975,"empiricalMass":0.975,"logScore":0.025317807984289897},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.00040000000000000105,"mean":0.02,"median":0,"bias":0.02,"maeMean":0.02,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.98,"empiricalMass":0.98,"logScore":0.020202707317519466},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.0000999999999999994,"mean":0.01,"median":0,"bias":0.01,"maeMean":0.01,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.99,"empiricalMass":0.99,"logScore":0.01005033585350145},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.00040000000000000105,"mean":0.02,"median":0,"bias":0.02,"maeMean":0.02,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.98,"empiricalMass":0.98,"logScore":0.020202707317519466},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.0012250000000000039,"mean":0.035,"median":0,"bias":0.035,"maeMean":0.035,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.965,"empiricalMass":0.965,"logScore":0.03562717764315116}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.985,"1":0.015},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.975,"1":0.02,"2":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.98,"1":0.02},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.99,"1":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.98,"1":0.02},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.965,"1":0.035}}},{"issuedAt":1548892800000,"validUntil":1549497600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":2,"actual":3,"trainingCount":3816,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2019","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":3.820775,"mean":10.465,"median":9,"bias":7.465,"maeMean":7.465,"maeMedian":6,"low":3,"high":25,"coverage":true,"width":22,"pitLower":0.04,"pitUpper":0.095,"empiricalMass":0.055,"logScore":2.900422093749666},"rollingETAS":{"crps":4.488274999999999,"mean":12.075,"median":9,"bias":9.075,"maeMean":9.075,"maeMedian":6,"low":3,"high":31,"coverage":true,"width":28,"pitLower":0.045,"pitUpper":0.08,"empiricalMass":0.035,"logScore":3.3524072174927233},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":4.702249999999999,"mean":11.73,"median":9.5,"bias":8.73,"maeMean":8.73,"maeMedian":6.5,"low":3,"high":29,"coverage":true,"width":26,"pitLower":0.04,"pitUpper":0.085,"empiricalMass":0.045,"logScore":3.101092789211817},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":9.263449999999999,"mean":14.42,"median":14.5,"bias":11.42,"maeMean":11.42,"maeMedian":11.5,"low":8,"high":21,"coverage":false,"width":13,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentPoisson":{"crps":3.2652500000000004,"mean":7.77,"median":8,"bias":4.77,"maeMean":4.77,"maeMedian":5,"low":3,"high":13,"coverage":true,"width":10,"pitLower":0.04,"pitUpper":0.065,"empiricalMass":0.025,"logScore":3.6888794541139363},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":2.7643000000000004,"mean":7.97,"median":7,"bias":4.97,"maeMean":4.97,"maeMedian":4,"low":2,"high":16,"coverage":true,"width":14,"pitLower":0.055,"pitUpper":0.12,"empiricalMass":0.065,"logScore":2.7333680090865}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"1":0.02,"2":0.02,"3":0.055,"4":0.08,"5":0.085,"6":0.08,"7":0.07,"8":0.08,"9":0.075,"10":0.05,"11":0.08,"12":0.05,"13":0.02,"14":0.02,"15":0.035,"16":0.025,"17":0.025,"18":0.015,"19":0.015,"20":0.01,"21":0.015,"22":0.005,"23":0.005,"24":0.01,"25":0.01,"26":0.01,"27":0.005,"28":0.01,"36":0.005,"37":0.005,"38":0.005,"65":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.005,"1":0.03,"2":0.01,"3":0.035,"4":0.055,"5":0.05,"6":0.13,"7":0.06,"8":0.09,"9":0.05,"10":0.04,"11":0.05,"12":0.05,"13":0.055,"14":0.035,"15":0.035,"16":0.03,"17":0.035,"18":0.025,"19":0.015,"20":0.01,"21":0.005,"22":0.015,"24":0.005,"25":0.005,"26":0.005,"27":0.01,"28":0.005,"31":0.01,"32":0.005,"33":0.005,"36":0.005,"39":0.005,"40":0.005,"52":0.005,"56":0.005,"82":0.01},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.005,"1":0.01,"2":0.025,"3":0.045,"4":0.025,"5":0.065,"6":0.065,"7":0.08,"8":0.09,"9":0.09,"10":0.055,"11":0.07,"12":0.055,"13":0.03,"14":0.055,"15":0.04,"16":0.02,"17":0.025,"18":0.04,"19":0.01,"20":0.005,"21":0.005,"22":0.01,"23":0.01,"24":0.01,"25":0.005,"29":0.005,"31":0.01,"32":0.005,"33":0.01,"34":0.005,"40":0.005,"51":0.005,"63":0.005,"66":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"5":0.005,"7":0.02,"8":0.035,"9":0.055,"10":0.065,"11":0.06,"12":0.065,"13":0.09,"14":0.105,"15":0.1,"16":0.11,"17":0.08,"18":0.08,"19":0.045,"20":0.03,"21":0.025,"22":0.015,"24":0.005,"26":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"1":0.005,"2":0.035,"3":0.025,"4":0.07,"5":0.065,"6":0.12,"7":0.14,"8":0.145,"9":0.165,"10":0.08,"11":0.05,"12":0.04,"13":0.015,"14":0.035,"15":0.005,"16":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.01,"1":0.015,"2":0.03,"3":0.065,"4":0.095,"5":0.11,"6":0.105,"7":0.11,"8":0.07,"9":0.075,"10":0.07,"11":0.085,"12":0.025,"13":0.05,"14":0.01,"15":0.02,"16":0.005,"17":0.015,"18":0.005,"19":0.005,"21":0.005,"22":0.005,"23":0.005,"25":0.005,"27":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1548892800000,"validUntil":1549497600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":3,"actual":1,"trainingCount":3816,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2019","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.3505999999999999,"mean":1.35,"median":1,"bias":0.3500000000000001,"maeMean":0.3500000000000001,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.415,"pitUpper":0.64,"empiricalMass":0.225,"logScore":1.491654876777717},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.3483249999999999,"mean":1.605,"median":1,"bias":0.605,"maeMean":0.605,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.35,"pitUpper":0.615,"empiricalMass":0.265,"logScore":1.3280254529959148},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.297725,"mean":1.495,"median":1,"bias":0.4950000000000001,"maeMean":0.4950000000000001,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.345,"pitUpper":0.65,"empiricalMass":0.305,"logScore":1.1874435023747254},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.521075,"mean":1.915,"median":2,"bias":0.915,"maeMean":0.915,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.18,"pitUpper":0.395,"empiricalMass":0.215,"logScore":1.5371172508544744},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.20292500000000002,"mean":1.005,"median":1,"bias":0.004999999999999893,"maeMean":0.004999999999999893,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.36,"pitUpper":0.745,"empiricalMass":0.385,"logScore":0.9545119446943529},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.34247499999999986,"mean":1.035,"median":1,"bias":0.03499999999999992,"maeMean":0.03499999999999992,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.49,"pitUpper":0.71,"empiricalMass":0.22,"logScore":1.5141277326297755}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.415,"1":0.225,"2":0.175,"3":0.08,"4":0.055,"5":0.03,"7":0.01,"9":0.005,"10":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.35,"1":0.265,"2":0.15,"3":0.12,"4":0.05,"5":0.015,"6":0.01,"7":0.02,"8":0.01,"12":0.005,"13":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.345,"1":0.305,"2":0.16,"3":0.065,"4":0.075,"5":0.03,"6":0.005,"13":0.015},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.18,"1":0.215,"2":0.285,"3":0.18,"4":0.115,"5":0.02,"6":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.36,"1":0.385,"2":0.165,"3":0.08,"5":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.49,"1":0.22,"2":0.17,"3":0.065,"4":0.03,"5":0.015,"6":0.005,"11":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1548892800000,"validUntil":1549497600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":3816,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2019","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.014499999999999999,"mean":0.13,"median":0,"bias":0.13,"maeMean":0.13,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.88,"empiricalMass":0.88,"logScore":0.12783337150988489},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.020925,"mean":0.195,"median":0,"bias":0.195,"maeMean":0.195,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.86,"empiricalMass":0.86,"logScore":0.15082288973458366},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.015424999999999994,"mean":0.165,"median":0,"bias":0.165,"maeMean":0.165,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.88,"empiricalMass":0.88,"logScore":0.12783337150988489},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.049024999999999985,"mean":0.245,"median":0,"bias":0.245,"maeMean":0.245,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.78,"empiricalMass":0.78,"logScore":0.2484613592984996},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.003599999999999999,"mean":0.06,"median":0,"bias":0.06,"maeMean":0.06,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.94,"empiricalMass":0.94,"logScore":0.06187540371808753},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.014424999999999993,"mean":0.125,"median":0,"bias":0.125,"maeMean":0.125,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.88,"empiricalMass":0.88,"logScore":0.12783337150988489}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.88,"1":0.11,"2":0.01},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.86,"1":0.11,"2":0.01,"3":0.015,"4":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.88,"1":0.09,"2":0.02,"3":0.005,"4":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.78,"1":0.195,"2":0.025},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.94,"1":0.06},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.88,"1":0.115,"2":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1548892800000,"validUntil":1551484800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":2,"actual":85,"trainingCount":3816,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2019","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":19.882274999999996,"mean":56.825,"median":53,"bias":-28.174999999999997,"maeMean":28.174999999999997,"maeMedian":32,"low":24,"high":98,"coverage":true,"width":74,"pitLower":0.865,"pitUpper":0.87,"empiricalMass":0.005,"logScore":5.298317366548036},"rollingETAS":{"crps":20.123525,"mean":59.725,"median":49,"bias":-25.275,"maeMean":25.275,"maeMedian":36,"low":23,"high":133,"coverage":true,"width":110,"pitLower":0.83,"pitUpper":0.835,"empiricalMass":0.005,"logScore":5.298317366548036},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":19.371924999999997,"mean":59.115,"median":53,"bias":-25.884999999999998,"maeMean":25.884999999999998,"maeMedian":32,"low":27,"high":107,"coverage":true,"width":80,"pitLower":0.84,"pitUpper":0.84,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":18.529525,"mean":61.735,"median":61,"bias":-23.265,"maeMean":23.265,"maeMedian":24,"low":49,"high":77,"coverage":false,"width":28,"pitLower":0.995,"pitUpper":0.995,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentPoisson":{"crps":48.746875,"mean":33.055,"median":33,"bias":-51.945,"maeMean":51.945,"maeMedian":52,"low":24,"high":43,"coverage":false,"width":19,"pitLower":1,"pitUpper":1,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":46.6374,"mean":33.61,"median":34,"bias":-51.39,"maeMean":51.39,"maeMedian":51,"low":19,"high":48,"coverage":false,"width":29,"pitLower":1,"pitUpper":1,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"13":0.005,"14":0.005,"17":0.005,"21":0.005,"22":0.005,"23":0.01,"24":0.015,"25":0.005,"26":0.005,"27":0.005,"31":0.01,"32":0.025,"33":0.02,"34":0.03,"35":0.015,"36":0.025,"37":0.01,"38":0.02,"39":0.005,"40":0.03,"41":0.025,"42":0.03,"43":0.03,"44":0.01,"45":0.02,"47":0.02,"48":0.025,"49":0.025,"51":0.025,"52":0.03,"53":0.025,"54":0.015,"56":0.02,"57":0.025,"58":0.015,"59":0.01,"60":0.035,"61":0.015,"62":0.015,"63":0.02,"64":0.02,"65":0.01,"66":0.015,"67":0.015,"68":0.02,"69":0.02,"72":0.005,"74":0.015,"75":0.005,"76":0.01,"77":0.005,"78":0.005,"81":0.015,"84":0.015,"85":0.005,"87":0.01,"88":0.01,"89":0.005,"90":0.005,"91":0.01,"93":0.01,"94":0.005,"95":0.005,"96":0.005,"97":0.005,"98":0.01,"101":0.01,"104":0.005,"108":0.005,"115":0.005,"117":0.005,"119":0.005,"129":0.005,"135":0.005,"149":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"17":0.005,"18":0.01,"20":0.01,"21":0.01,"22":0.01,"23":0.005,"24":0.02,"27":0.015,"28":0.01,"29":0.015,"30":0.02,"31":0.015,"32":0.02,"33":0.025,"34":0.015,"35":0.005,"36":0.035,"37":0.02,"38":0.03,"39":0.02,"40":0.01,"41":0.02,"42":0.025,"43":0.015,"44":0.015,"45":0.01,"46":0.035,"47":0.02,"48":0.025,"49":0.035,"50":0.015,"51":0.02,"52":0.005,"53":0.03,"54":0.01,"55":0.005,"56":0.01,"57":0.005,"58":0.005,"59":0.01,"60":0.01,"61":0.01,"62":0.01,"63":0.005,"64":0.015,"65":0.005,"66":0.01,"67":0.005,"68":0.005,"69":0.01,"70":0.01,"71":0.005,"72":0.005,"75":0.005,"77":0.01,"78":0.015,"79":0.005,"80":0.01,"81":0.01,"82":0.005,"83":0.015,"84":0.01,"85":0.005,"86":0.005,"87":0.015,"90":0.01,"92":0.01,"95":0.005,"97":0.005,"101":0.01,"102":0.005,"103":0.005,"107":0.005,"110":0.01,"113":0.005,"120":0.005,"121":0.005,"124":0.005,"130":0.005,"133":0.01,"137":0.005,"141":0.005,"144":0.005,"151":0.005,"154":0.005,"157":0.005,"176":0.005,"218":0.005,"255":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"19":0.01,"20":0.01,"21":0.005,"22":0.01,"26":0.005,"27":0.02,"29":0.01,"30":0.02,"31":0.025,"32":0.01,"33":0.01,"34":0.015,"35":0.025,"36":0.015,"37":0.005,"38":0.03,"39":0.025,"40":0.01,"41":0.02,"42":0.02,"43":0.025,"44":0.03,"45":0.025,"46":0.015,"47":0.02,"48":0.02,"49":0.025,"50":0.005,"52":0.025,"53":0.015,"54":0.005,"55":0.02,"56":0.03,"57":0.01,"58":0.045,"59":0.005,"60":0.01,"61":0.025,"62":0.02,"63":0.005,"64":0.005,"65":0.015,"66":0.015,"67":0.01,"68":0.025,"69":0.01,"70":0.005,"72":0.005,"73":0.005,"74":0.005,"75":0.01,"77":0.01,"78":0.01,"79":0.005,"81":0.01,"82":0.005,"83":0.005,"84":0.005,"87":0.02,"89":0.005,"90":0.005,"95":0.005,"97":0.015,"98":0.005,"99":0.015,"101":0.01,"102":0.005,"104":0.005,"105":0.005,"106":0.005,"107":0.01,"115":0.005,"116":0.005,"120":0.005,"123":0.005,"141":0.005,"143":0.005,"145":0.005,"156":0.005,"168":0.005,"173":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"38":0.005,"42":0.005,"44":0.01,"45":0.015,"46":0.005,"49":0.015,"50":0.03,"51":0.03,"52":0.015,"53":0.035,"54":0.03,"55":0.03,"56":0.045,"57":0.035,"58":0.06,"59":0.035,"60":0.05,"61":0.08,"62":0.04,"63":0.055,"64":0.025,"65":0.045,"66":0.035,"67":0.01,"68":0.04,"69":0.025,"70":0.04,"71":0.025,"72":0.035,"73":0.005,"74":0.015,"76":0.02,"77":0.015,"78":0.005,"79":0.015,"80":0.005,"81":0.01,"91":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"20":0.005,"21":0.005,"22":0.005,"23":0.015,"24":0.02,"25":0.025,"26":0.05,"27":0.035,"28":0.05,"29":0.07,"30":0.09,"31":0.06,"32":0.065,"33":0.075,"34":0.045,"35":0.055,"36":0.065,"37":0.055,"38":0.04,"39":0.05,"40":0.01,"41":0.03,"42":0.02,"43":0.01,"44":0.01,"45":0.015,"46":0.005,"47":0.015,"50":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"11":0.005,"15":0.01,"17":0.01,"18":0.02,"19":0.01,"20":0.025,"21":0.01,"22":0.02,"23":0.01,"24":0.015,"25":0.035,"26":0.03,"27":0.03,"28":0.03,"29":0.04,"30":0.045,"31":0.035,"32":0.07,"33":0.02,"34":0.05,"35":0.055,"36":0.045,"37":0.07,"38":0.07,"39":0.04,"40":0.035,"41":0.025,"42":0.01,"43":0.02,"44":0.005,"45":0.03,"46":0.01,"47":0.01,"48":0.015,"50":0.005,"52":0.01,"53":0.01,"54":0.005,"56":0.005,"63":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1548892800000,"validUntil":1551484800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":3,"actual":16,"trainingCount":3816,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2019","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":6.809550000000001,"mean":7.06,"median":6,"bias":-8.940000000000001,"maeMean":8.940000000000001,"maeMedian":10,"low":1,"high":15,"coverage":false,"width":14,"pitLower":0.96,"pitUpper":0.965,"empiricalMass":0.005,"logScore":5.298317366548036},"rollingETAS":{"crps":6.1145,"mean":7.98,"median":6,"bias":-8.02,"maeMean":8.02,"maeMedian":10,"low":1,"high":20,"coverage":true,"width":19,"pitLower":0.885,"pitUpper":0.89,"empiricalMass":0.005,"logScore":5.298317366548036},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":6.431524999999999,"mean":7.475,"median":6,"bias":-8.525,"maeMean":8.525,"maeMedian":10,"low":2,"high":16,"coverage":true,"width":14,"pitLower":0.945,"pitUpper":0.95,"empiricalMass":0.005,"logScore":5.298317366548036},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":6.31715,"mean":8.11,"median":8,"bias":-7.890000000000001,"maeMean":7.890000000000001,"maeMedian":8,"low":4,"high":13,"coverage":false,"width":9,"pitLower":0.995,"pitUpper":0.995,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentPoisson":{"crps":10.2714,"mean":4.54,"median":5,"bias":-11.46,"maeMean":11.46,"maeMedian":11,"low":1,"high":8,"coverage":false,"width":7,"pitLower":1,"pitUpper":1,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":9.381049999999998,"mean":4.9,"median":4,"bias":-11.1,"maeMean":11.1,"maeMedian":12,"low":1,"high":11,"coverage":false,"width":10,"pitLower":0.99,"pitUpper":0.995,"empiricalMass":0.005,"logScore":5.298317366548036}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.005,"1":0.07,"2":0.055,"3":0.09,"4":0.095,"5":0.11,"6":0.095,"7":0.09,"8":0.07,"9":0.065,"10":0.07,"11":0.035,"12":0.02,"13":0.045,"14":0.03,"15":0.015,"16":0.005,"17":0.005,"18":0.01,"20":0.005,"21":0.005,"23":0.01},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.02,"1":0.06,"2":0.065,"3":0.09,"4":0.1,"5":0.08,"6":0.095,"7":0.09,"8":0.065,"9":0.03,"10":0.065,"11":0.035,"12":0.03,"13":0.025,"14":0.03,"15":0.005,"16":0.005,"17":0.04,"18":0.005,"19":0.01,"20":0.015,"22":0.005,"23":0.01,"24":0.01,"28":0.005,"32":0.005,"59":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.01,"1":0.035,"2":0.06,"3":0.08,"4":0.125,"5":0.085,"6":0.12,"7":0.085,"8":0.07,"9":0.05,"10":0.07,"11":0.03,"12":0.03,"13":0.035,"14":0.03,"15":0.03,"16":0.005,"17":0.015,"19":0.01,"21":0.01,"24":0.005,"25":0.005,"27":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"1":0.005,"2":0.005,"3":0.02,"4":0.075,"5":0.075,"6":0.125,"7":0.15,"8":0.105,"9":0.125,"10":0.115,"11":0.085,"12":0.045,"13":0.03,"14":0.035,"18":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.025,"1":0.04,"2":0.11,"3":0.16,"4":0.16,"5":0.18,"6":0.145,"7":0.08,"8":0.075,"9":0.02,"10":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.045,"1":0.095,"2":0.1,"3":0.11,"4":0.155,"5":0.13,"6":0.1,"7":0.075,"8":0.08,"9":0.025,"10":0.03,"11":0.02,"12":0.015,"14":0.005,"15":0.005,"16":0.005,"18":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1548892800000,"validUntil":1551484800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":4,"actual":2,"trainingCount":3816,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2019","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.8438500000000001,"mean":0.87,"median":1,"bias":-1.13,"maeMean":1.13,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.79,"pitUpper":0.915,"empiricalMass":0.125,"logScore":2.0794415416798357},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.8071,"mean":1.1,"median":1,"bias":-0.8999999999999999,"maeMean":0.8999999999999999,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.73,"pitUpper":0.835,"empiricalMass":0.105,"logScore":2.2537949288246137},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.8193750000000001,"mean":0.995,"median":1,"bias":-1.005,"maeMean":1.005,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.755,"pitUpper":0.905,"empiricalMass":0.15,"logScore":1.8971199848858813},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.506875,"mean":1.175,"median":1,"bias":-0.825,"maeMean":0.825,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.625,"pitUpper":0.9,"empiricalMass":0.275,"logScore":1.2909841813155656},"recentPoisson":{"crps":1.2716749999999999,"mean":0.435,"median":0,"bias":-1.565,"maeMean":1.565,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.925,"pitUpper":0.995,"empiricalMass":0.07,"logScore":2.659260036932778},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":1.18435,"mean":0.52,"median":0,"bias":-1.48,"maeMean":1.48,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.93,"pitUpper":0.985,"empiricalMass":0.055,"logScore":2.900422093749666}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.46,"1":0.33,"2":0.125,"3":0.055,"4":0.025,"5":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.49,"1":0.24,"2":0.105,"3":0.095,"4":0.04,"5":0.005,"6":0.005,"7":0.015,"9":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.485,"1":0.27,"2":0.15,"3":0.04,"4":0.02,"5":0.015,"7":0.015,"9":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.325,"1":0.3,"2":0.275,"3":0.075,"4":0.025},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.645,"1":0.28,"2":0.07,"3":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.565,"1":0.365,"2":0.055,"3":0.015}}},{"issuedAt":1551484800000,"validUntil":1551571200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":2,"actual":1,"trainingCount":3901,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2019","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.5836250000000001,"mean":2.705,"median":2,"bias":1.705,"maeMean":1.705,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":8,"coverage":true,"width":8,"pitLower":0.19,"pitUpper":0.435,"empiricalMass":0.245,"logScore":1.40649706843741},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.609275,"mean":2.435,"median":2,"bias":1.435,"maeMean":1.435,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":7,"coverage":true,"width":7,"pitLower":0.195,"pitUpper":0.415,"empiricalMass":0.22,"logScore":1.5141277326297755},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.7032249999999998,"mean":2.865,"median":2,"bias":1.8650000000000002,"maeMean":1.8650000000000002,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":9,"coverage":true,"width":9,"pitLower":0.155,"pitUpper":0.385,"empiricalMass":0.23,"logScore":1.4696759700589417},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.5546500000000001,"mean":2.1,"median":2,"bias":1.1,"maeMean":1.1,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.095,"pitUpper":0.355,"empiricalMass":0.26,"logScore":1.3470736479666092},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.22692499999999993,"mean":1.205,"median":1,"bias":0.20500000000000007,"maeMean":0.20500000000000007,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.31,"pitUpper":0.665,"empiricalMass":0.355,"logScore":1.0356374895067213},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.37455000000000005,"mean":1.3,"median":1,"bias":0.30000000000000004,"maeMean":0.30000000000000004,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.475,"pitUpper":0.695,"empiricalMass":0.22,"logScore":1.5141277326297755}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.19,"1":0.245,"2":0.225,"3":0.1,"4":0.075,"5":0.05,"6":0.035,"7":0.025,"8":0.025,"10":0.005,"12":0.01,"13":0.005,"31":0.005,"37":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.195,"1":0.22,"2":0.225,"3":0.105,"4":0.12,"5":0.05,"6":0.015,"7":0.02,"8":0.02,"9":0.015,"10":0.005,"14":0.005,"15":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.155,"1":0.23,"2":0.21,"3":0.13,"4":0.11,"5":0.055,"6":0.02,"7":0.02,"8":0.015,"9":0.015,"10":0.005,"12":0.005,"13":0.015,"15":0.005,"20":0.005,"23":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.095,"1":0.26,"2":0.315,"3":0.205,"4":0.055,"5":0.06,"6":0.005,"9":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.31,"1":0.355,"2":0.205,"3":0.09,"4":0.03,"5":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.475,"1":0.22,"2":0.11,"3":0.085,"4":0.05,"5":0.025,"6":0.015,"7":0.005,"9":0.01,"13":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1551484800000,"validUntil":1551571200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":3,"actual":1,"trainingCount":3901,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2019","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.675225,"mean":0.265,"median":0,"bias":-0.735,"maeMean":0.735,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0.82,"pitUpper":0.95,"empiricalMass":0.13,"logScore":2.0402208285265546},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.6523,"mean":0.27,"median":0,"bias":-0.73,"maeMean":0.73,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.805,"pitUpper":0.935,"empiricalMass":0.13,"logScore":2.0402208285265546},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.5534250000000001,"mean":0.385,"median":0,"bias":-0.615,"maeMean":0.615,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.74,"pitUpper":0.93,"empiricalMass":0.19,"logScore":1.6607312068216509},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.570675,"mean":0.275,"median":0,"bias":-0.725,"maeMean":0.725,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0.755,"pitUpper":0.975,"empiricalMass":0.22,"logScore":1.5141277326297755},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.640425,"mean":0.225,"median":0,"bias":-0.775,"maeMean":0.775,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0.8,"pitUpper":0.98,"empiricalMass":0.18,"logScore":1.7147984280919266},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.7756500000000001,"mean":0.16,"median":0,"bias":-0.84,"maeMean":0.84,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0.88,"pitUpper":0.965,"empiricalMass":0.085,"logScore":2.4651040224918206}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.82,"1":0.13,"2":0.035,"3":0.01,"7":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.805,"1":0.13,"2":0.06,"4":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.74,"1":0.19,"2":0.05,"4":0.01,"5":0.005,"6":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.755,"1":0.22,"2":0.02,"3":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.8,"1":0.18,"2":0.015,"3":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.88,"1":0.085,"2":0.03,"3":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1551484800000,"validUntil":1551571200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":3901,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2019","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.0008500000000000035,"mean":0.04,"median":0,"bias":0.04,"maeMean":0.04,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.975,"empiricalMass":0.975,"logScore":0.025317807984289897},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.002024999999999999,"mean":0.045,"median":0,"bias":0.045,"maeMean":0.045,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.955,"empiricalMass":0.955,"logScore":0.046043938501406846},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.002024999999999999,"mean":0.045,"median":0,"bias":0.045,"maeMean":0.045,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.955,"empiricalMass":0.955,"logScore":0.046043938501406846},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.00040000000000000105,"mean":0.02,"median":0,"bias":0.02,"maeMean":0.02,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.98,"empiricalMass":0.98,"logScore":0.020202707317519466},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.0006250000000000006,"mean":0.025,"median":0,"bias":0.025,"maeMean":0.025,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.975,"empiricalMass":0.975,"logScore":0.025317807984289897},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.0012250000000000039,"mean":0.035,"median":0,"bias":0.035,"maeMean":0.035,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.965,"empiricalMass":0.965,"logScore":0.03562717764315116}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.975,"1":0.01,"2":0.015},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.955,"1":0.045},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.955,"1":0.045},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.98,"1":0.02},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.975,"1":0.025},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.965,"1":0.035}}},{"issuedAt":1551484800000,"validUntil":1552089600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":2,"actual":15,"trainingCount":3901,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2019","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":2.4433500000000006,"mean":19.65,"median":17,"bias":4.649999999999999,"maeMean":4.649999999999999,"maeMedian":2,"low":6,"high":40,"coverage":true,"width":34,"pitLower":0.395,"pitUpper":0.425,"empiricalMass":0.03,"logScore":3.506557897319982},"rollingETAS":{"crps":2.1759500000000003,"mean":18.8,"median":15,"bias":3.8000000000000007,"maeMean":3.8000000000000007,"maeMedian":0,"low":6,"high":42,"coverage":true,"width":36,"pitLower":0.455,"pitUpper":0.52,"empiricalMass":0.065,"logScore":2.7333680090865},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":2.273275,"mean":18.115,"median":15,"bias":3.1149999999999984,"maeMean":3.1149999999999984,"maeMedian":0,"low":4,"high":39,"coverage":true,"width":35,"pitLower":0.465,"pitUpper":0.505,"empiricalMass":0.04,"logScore":3.2188758248682006},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.7705500000000001,"mean":14.43,"median":14,"bias":-0.5700000000000003,"maeMean":0.5700000000000003,"maeMedian":1,"low":8,"high":20,"coverage":true,"width":12,"pitLower":0.535,"pitUpper":0.66,"empiricalMass":0.125,"logScore":2.0794415416798357},"recentPoisson":{"crps":4.67125,"mean":8.75,"median":9,"bias":-6.25,"maeMean":6.25,"maeMedian":6,"low":4,"high":14,"coverage":false,"width":10,"pitLower":0.97,"pitUpper":0.985,"empiricalMass":0.015,"logScore":4.199705077879927},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":4.5742,"mean":8.54,"median":7,"bias":-6.460000000000001,"maeMean":6.460000000000001,"maeMedian":8,"low":1,"high":20,"coverage":true,"width":19,"pitLower":0.85,"pitUpper":0.87,"empiricalMass":0.02,"logScore":3.912023005428146}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"2":0.005,"4":0.015,"5":0.01,"6":0.02,"7":0.02,"8":0.035,"9":0.05,"10":0.05,"11":0.055,"12":0.04,"13":0.055,"14":0.04,"15":0.03,"16":0.05,"17":0.045,"18":0.035,"19":0.045,"20":0.015,"21":0.045,"22":0.035,"23":0.025,"24":0.03,"25":0.045,"26":0.015,"27":0.035,"28":0.015,"29":0.01,"30":0.015,"31":0.01,"32":0.015,"33":0.005,"34":0.01,"35":0.01,"38":0.005,"39":0.005,"40":0.005,"41":0.01,"42":0.005,"45":0.005,"49":0.005,"54":0.005,"63":0.005,"73":0.005,"87":0.005,"109":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"3":0.01,"4":0.015,"5":0.02,"6":0.02,"7":0.035,"8":0.045,"9":0.055,"10":0.065,"11":0.055,"12":0.04,"13":0.035,"14":0.06,"15":0.065,"16":0.035,"17":0.045,"18":0.035,"19":0.015,"20":0.04,"21":0.025,"22":0.02,"23":0.025,"24":0.03,"25":0.015,"26":0.02,"27":0.02,"28":0.02,"29":0.015,"30":0.005,"32":0.015,"33":0.01,"34":0.01,"35":0.005,"37":0.005,"39":0.005,"40":0.005,"41":0.005,"42":0.005,"44":0.005,"45":0.005,"53":0.005,"55":0.005,"57":0.005,"60":0.005,"65":0.005,"68":0.005,"91":0.005,"99":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"1":0.005,"2":0.005,"3":0.005,"4":0.035,"5":0.015,"6":0.02,"7":0.035,"8":0.015,"9":0.1,"10":0.07,"11":0.02,"12":0.04,"13":0.045,"14":0.055,"15":0.04,"16":0.025,"17":0.055,"18":0.055,"19":0.03,"20":0.04,"21":0.015,"22":0.005,"23":0.03,"24":0.015,"25":0.005,"26":0.02,"27":0.03,"28":0.03,"29":0.02,"30":0.01,"31":0.015,"32":0.005,"33":0.005,"34":0.01,"35":0.005,"36":0.015,"39":0.005,"46":0.005,"48":0.005,"49":0.005,"50":0.005,"51":0.005,"57":0.005,"58":0.01,"63":0.005,"69":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"5":0.005,"7":0.01,"8":0.035,"9":0.01,"10":0.05,"11":0.055,"12":0.1,"13":0.11,"14":0.16,"15":0.125,"16":0.105,"17":0.055,"18":0.055,"19":0.04,"20":0.045,"21":0.03,"22":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"2":0.005,"3":0.025,"4":0.025,"5":0.075,"6":0.12,"7":0.095,"8":0.125,"9":0.14,"10":0.14,"11":0.085,"12":0.065,"13":0.03,"14":0.04,"15":0.015,"16":0.005,"17":0.005,"18":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.015,"1":0.04,"2":0.075,"3":0.08,"4":0.065,"5":0.105,"6":0.065,"7":0.1,"8":0.045,"9":0.05,"10":0.06,"11":0.025,"12":0.04,"13":0.05,"14":0.035,"15":0.02,"16":0.025,"17":0.015,"18":0.025,"19":0.01,"20":0.015,"21":0.005,"24":0.01,"25":0.015,"27":0.005,"36":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1551484800000,"validUntil":1552089600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":3,"actual":3,"trainingCount":3901,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2019","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.7936749999999999,"mean":2.355,"median":2,"bias":-0.645,"maeMean":0.645,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":7,"coverage":true,"width":7,"pitLower":0.655,"pitUpper":0.76,"empiricalMass":0.105,"logScore":2.2537949288246137},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.7487999999999999,"mean":2.42,"median":2,"bias":-0.5800000000000001,"maeMean":0.5800000000000001,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":7,"coverage":true,"width":7,"pitLower":0.65,"pitUpper":0.765,"empiricalMass":0.115,"logScore":2.162823150618887},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.8679499999999998,"mean":2.15,"median":1,"bias":-0.8500000000000001,"maeMean":0.8500000000000001,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":7,"coverage":true,"width":7,"pitLower":0.69,"pitUpper":0.8,"empiricalMass":0.11,"logScore":2.2072749131897207},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.6743750000000001,"mean":1.955,"median":2,"bias":-1.045,"maeMean":1.045,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.71,"pitUpper":0.89,"empiricalMass":0.18,"logScore":1.7147984280919266},"recentPoisson":{"crps":1.1631749999999998,"mean":1.335,"median":1,"bias":-1.665,"maeMean":1.665,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.825,"pitUpper":0.93,"empiricalMass":0.105,"logScore":2.2537949288246137},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":1.3589250000000002,"mean":1.305,"median":1,"bias":-1.695,"maeMean":1.695,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.815,"pitUpper":0.895,"empiricalMass":0.08,"logScore":2.5257286443082556}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.195,"1":0.29,"2":0.17,"3":0.105,"4":0.1,"5":0.065,"6":0.015,"7":0.015,"8":0.01,"9":0.01,"10":0.005,"12":0.01,"15":0.01},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.215,"1":0.22,"2":0.215,"3":0.115,"4":0.095,"5":0.065,"6":0.005,"7":0.02,"8":0.015,"9":0.01,"10":0.005,"11":0.005,"12":0.005,"17":0.005,"18":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.25,"1":0.26,"2":0.18,"3":0.11,"4":0.075,"5":0.05,"6":0.015,"7":0.015,"8":0.01,"9":0.01,"10":0.005,"11":0.01,"12":0.005,"13":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.15,"1":0.215,"2":0.345,"3":0.18,"4":0.065,"5":0.025,"6":0.015,"7":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.305,"1":0.315,"2":0.205,"3":0.105,"4":0.055,"5":0.015},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.44,"1":0.255,"2":0.12,"3":0.08,"4":0.035,"5":0.03,"6":0.02,"7":0.01,"8":0.005,"10":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1551484800000,"validUntil":1552089600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":4,"actual":1,"trainingCount":3901,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2019","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.724575,"mean":0.205,"median":0,"bias":-0.795,"maeMean":0.795,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0.85,"pitUpper":0.955,"empiricalMass":0.105,"logScore":2.2537949288246137},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.675125,"mean":0.255,"median":0,"bias":-0.745,"maeMean":0.745,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0.82,"pitUpper":0.95,"empiricalMass":0.13,"logScore":2.0402208285265546},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.6347499999999999,"mean":0.27,"median":0,"bias":-0.73,"maeMean":0.73,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0.795,"pitUpper":0.95,"empiricalMass":0.155,"logScore":1.8643301620628905},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.61715,"mean":0.25,"median":0,"bias":-0.75,"maeMean":0.75,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0.785,"pitUpper":0.97,"empiricalMass":0.185,"logScore":1.6873994539038122},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.69765,"mean":0.19,"median":0,"bias":-0.81,"maeMean":0.81,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0.835,"pitUpper":0.98,"empiricalMass":0.145,"logScore":1.9310215365615626},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.828225,"mean":0.105,"median":0,"bias":-0.895,"maeMean":0.895,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0.91,"pitUpper":0.99,"empiricalMass":0.08,"logScore":2.5257286443082556}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.85,"1":0.105,"2":0.04,"4":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.82,"1":0.13,"2":0.04,"4":0.005,"5":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.795,"1":0.155,"2":0.035,"3":0.015},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.785,"1":0.185,"2":0.025,"3":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.835,"1":0.145,"2":0.015,"3":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.91,"1":0.08,"2":0.005,"3":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1551484800000,"validUntil":1554076800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":2,"actual":37,"trainingCount":3901,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2019","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":21.737924999999997,"mean":73.945,"median":68,"bias":36.94499999999999,"maeMean":36.94499999999999,"maeMedian":31,"low":38,"high":133,"coverage":false,"width":95,"pitLower":0.04,"pitUpper":0.045,"empiricalMass":0.005,"logScore":5.298317366548036},"rollingETAS":{"crps":22.996525,"mean":78.175,"median":67,"bias":41.175,"maeMean":41.175,"maeMedian":30,"low":36,"high":153,"coverage":true,"width":117,"pitLower":0.05,"pitUpper":0.055,"empiricalMass":0.005,"logScore":5.298317366548036},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":20.758775,"mean":73.015,"median":66,"bias":36.015,"maeMean":36.015,"maeMedian":29,"low":37,"high":125,"coverage":true,"width":88,"pitLower":0.04,"pitUpper":0.055,"empiricalMass":0.015,"logScore":4.199705077879927},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":19.680750000000003,"mean":61.17,"median":61,"bias":24.17,"maeMean":24.17,"maeMedian":24,"low":49,"high":75,"coverage":false,"width":26,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentPoisson":{"crps":1.4606500000000002,"mean":37.63,"median":38,"bias":0.6300000000000026,"maeMean":0.6300000000000026,"maeMedian":1,"low":27,"high":47,"coverage":true,"width":20,"pitLower":0.435,"pitUpper":0.475,"empiricalMass":0.04,"logScore":3.2188758248682006},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":4.139025,"mean":37.725,"median":35.5,"bias":0.7250000000000014,"maeMean":0.7250000000000014,"maeMedian":1.5,"low":13,"high":68,"coverage":true,"width":55,"pitLower":0.525,"pitUpper":0.535,"empiricalMass":0.01,"logScore":4.605170185988091}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"25":0.005,"27":0.005,"28":0.005,"29":0.005,"31":0.01,"32":0.005,"34":0.005,"37":0.005,"38":0.005,"39":0.005,"41":0.01,"42":0.01,"43":0.02,"44":0.01,"45":0.01,"46":0.025,"47":0.015,"48":0.005,"49":0.04,"50":0.015,"51":0.03,"52":0.005,"53":0.015,"54":0.025,"55":0.01,"56":0.005,"57":0.02,"58":0.025,"59":0.025,"60":0.02,"61":0.01,"62":0.015,"63":0.01,"64":0.005,"65":0.01,"66":0.015,"67":0.015,"68":0.035,"69":0.015,"71":0.005,"72":0.02,"73":0.025,"74":0.035,"75":0.01,"76":0.005,"77":0.015,"79":0.02,"80":0.02,"81":0.005,"82":0.015,"83":0.015,"84":0.01,"85":0.015,"86":0.005,"87":0.01,"88":0.01,"89":0.015,"90":0.005,"92":0.01,"93":0.015,"94":0.005,"96":0.005,"99":0.005,"100":0.005,"101":0.01,"102":0.01,"103":0.01,"104":0.01,"107":0.01,"109":0.005,"111":0.01,"113":0.005,"114":0.005,"116":0.005,"117":0.005,"119":0.01,"122":0.005,"126":0.005,"131":0.005,"133":0.01,"134":0.01,"135":0.005,"138":0.005,"148":0.005,"151":0.005,"159":0.005,"162":0.005,"197":0.005,"200":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"25":0.005,"34":0.02,"35":0.01,"36":0.015,"37":0.005,"39":0.005,"40":0.01,"41":0.005,"42":0.01,"43":0.02,"44":0.005,"45":0.01,"47":0.01,"48":0.015,"49":0.005,"50":0.015,"51":0.01,"52":0.025,"53":0.035,"54":0.025,"55":0.005,"56":0.015,"57":0.005,"58":0.01,"59":0.03,"60":0.01,"61":0.03,"62":0.02,"63":0.035,"64":0.03,"65":0.025,"66":0.015,"67":0.015,"68":0.015,"69":0.005,"70":0.03,"72":0.02,"73":0.01,"74":0.01,"75":0.025,"76":0.01,"77":0.01,"79":0.015,"80":0.01,"82":0.025,"83":0.03,"84":0.005,"85":0.005,"86":0.005,"87":0.01,"88":0.005,"89":0.005,"90":0.01,"91":0.005,"92":0.005,"93":0.015,"95":0.005,"97":0.015,"101":0.005,"104":0.01,"108":0.005,"109":0.005,"111":0.01,"113":0.01,"116":0.005,"118":0.005,"119":0.005,"120":0.005,"121":0.005,"122":0.01,"124":0.005,"126":0.005,"128":0.005,"132":0.005,"133":0.005,"134":0.005,"136":0.005,"148":0.015,"150":0.005,"153":0.005,"154":0.005,"155":0.005,"167":0.005,"178":0.005,"179":0.005,"188":0.005,"189":0.005,"193":0.005,"219":0.005,"247":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"19":0.005,"26":0.005,"27":0.005,"31":0.005,"32":0.005,"33":0.005,"34":0.005,"36":0.005,"37":0.015,"38":0.005,"39":0.01,"40":0.01,"41":0.005,"42":0.005,"44":0.01,"45":0.02,"46":0.015,"47":0.015,"48":0.01,"49":0.01,"50":0.025,"51":0.025,"52":0.035,"53":0.02,"54":0.015,"55":0.02,"56":0.035,"57":0.03,"58":0.015,"59":0.015,"60":0.03,"61":0.01,"62":0.01,"63":0.005,"64":0.015,"65":0.02,"66":0.02,"67":0.015,"68":0.02,"69":0.005,"70":0.015,"71":0.025,"72":0.005,"73":0.015,"75":0.005,"76":0.015,"77":0.015,"78":0.01,"79":0.015,"80":0.015,"81":0.01,"82":0.005,"83":0.015,"84":0.005,"85":0.01,"86":0.005,"87":0.01,"88":0.005,"89":0.01,"90":0.015,"91":0.02,"92":0.01,"93":0.01,"95":0.005,"96":0.005,"98":0.005,"100":0.005,"101":0.005,"102":0.005,"103":0.005,"104":0.005,"105":0.005,"106":0.005,"107":0.01,"109":0.005,"110":0.005,"113":0.01,"114":0.01,"115":0.005,"119":0.005,"120":0.005,"121":0.005,"123":0.01,"125":0.01,"128":0.005,"130":0.01,"148":0.005,"149":0.005,"160":0.005,"180":0.005,"182":0.005,"187":0.005,"197":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"44":0.005,"45":0.005,"47":0.025,"49":0.025,"50":0.025,"51":0.035,"52":0.025,"53":0.04,"54":0.05,"55":0.015,"56":0.06,"57":0.035,"58":0.035,"59":0.065,"60":0.045,"61":0.03,"62":0.03,"63":0.06,"64":0.06,"65":0.04,"66":0.05,"67":0.045,"68":0.03,"69":0.015,"70":0.03,"72":0.03,"73":0.02,"74":0.015,"75":0.015,"76":0.01,"77":0.005,"78":0.01,"81":0.005,"83":0.005,"85":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"23":0.005,"25":0.015,"26":0.015,"27":0.02,"28":0.005,"29":0.025,"30":0.02,"31":0.025,"32":0.055,"33":0.055,"34":0.075,"35":0.06,"36":0.06,"37":0.04,"38":0.08,"39":0.05,"40":0.075,"41":0.04,"42":0.07,"43":0.07,"44":0.045,"45":0.015,"46":0.02,"47":0.015,"48":0.025,"49":0.005,"50":0.005,"54":0.005,"56":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"6":0.005,"8":0.01,"9":0.005,"10":0.02,"11":0.005,"13":0.005,"15":0.01,"16":0.01,"17":0.02,"18":0.015,"19":0.02,"20":0.02,"21":0.025,"22":0.02,"23":0.015,"24":0.035,"25":0.025,"26":0.035,"27":0.02,"28":0.02,"29":0.03,"30":0.015,"31":0.015,"32":0.03,"33":0.025,"34":0.02,"35":0.025,"36":0.025,"37":0.01,"38":0.005,"39":0.025,"40":0.03,"41":0.025,"42":0.035,"43":0.015,"44":0.01,"45":0.025,"46":0.02,"47":0.015,"48":0.02,"49":0.01,"50":0.02,"51":0.01,"52":0.01,"53":0.01,"54":0.005,"55":0.01,"56":0.015,"57":0.01,"58":0.015,"59":0.03,"61":0.005,"62":0.005,"63":0.005,"64":0.005,"65":0.005,"66":0.01,"67":0.005,"68":0.01,"70":0.005,"71":0.005,"72":0.015,"77":0.005,"80":0.005,"84":0.005,"111":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1551484800000,"validUntil":1554076800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":3,"actual":7,"trainingCount":3901,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2019","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":1.2044249999999996,"mean":9.245,"median":8,"bias":2.244999999999999,"maeMean":2.244999999999999,"maeMedian":1,"low":2,"high":22,"coverage":true,"width":20,"pitLower":0.38,"pitUpper":0.475,"empiricalMass":0.095,"logScore":2.353878387381596},"rollingETAS":{"crps":1.5311000000000003,"mean":10.4,"median":9,"bias":3.4000000000000004,"maeMean":3.4000000000000004,"maeMedian":2,"low":3,"high":23,"coverage":true,"width":20,"pitLower":0.32,"pitUpper":0.405,"empiricalMass":0.085,"logScore":2.4651040224918206},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":1.2571000000000003,"mean":9.06,"median":8,"bias":2.0600000000000005,"maeMean":2.0600000000000005,"maeMedian":1,"low":2,"high":20,"coverage":true,"width":18,"pitLower":0.37,"pitUpper":0.47,"empiricalMass":0.1,"logScore":2.3025850929940455},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.7988500000000001,"mean":8.33,"median":8,"bias":1.33,"maeMean":1.33,"maeMedian":1,"low":4,"high":13,"coverage":true,"width":9,"pitLower":0.245,"pitUpper":0.385,"empiricalMass":0.14,"logScore":1.9661128563728327},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.9561249999999999,"mean":5.535,"median":5,"bias":-1.4649999999999999,"maeMean":1.4649999999999999,"maeMedian":2,"low":2,"high":9,"coverage":true,"width":7,"pitLower":0.705,"pitUpper":0.84,"empiricalMass":0.135,"logScore":2.0024805005437076},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":1.3282,"mean":5.38,"median":5,"bias":-1.62,"maeMean":1.62,"maeMedian":2,"low":1,"high":12,"coverage":true,"width":11,"pitLower":0.705,"pitUpper":0.79,"empiricalMass":0.085,"logScore":2.4651040224918206}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"1":0.015,"2":0.035,"3":0.05,"4":0.09,"5":0.105,"6":0.085,"7":0.095,"8":0.08,"9":0.07,"10":0.065,"11":0.055,"12":0.035,"13":0.065,"14":0.02,"15":0.02,"16":0.01,"17":0.01,"18":0.01,"19":0.02,"20":0.005,"21":0.005,"22":0.005,"23":0.01,"24":0.01,"25":0.005,"26":0.005,"27":0.01,"31":0.005,"45":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"2":0.02,"3":0.05,"4":0.065,"5":0.075,"6":0.11,"7":0.085,"8":0.09,"9":0.06,"10":0.04,"11":0.085,"12":0.055,"13":0.025,"14":0.03,"15":0.035,"16":0.025,"17":0.02,"18":0.015,"19":0.025,"20":0.01,"21":0.01,"22":0.01,"23":0.01,"24":0.005,"25":0.01,"26":0.005,"27":0.005,"30":0.005,"31":0.005,"32":0.005,"34":0.005,"36":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.01,"1":0.015,"2":0.04,"3":0.07,"4":0.075,"5":0.085,"6":0.075,"7":0.1,"8":0.08,"9":0.065,"10":0.065,"11":0.05,"12":0.05,"13":0.025,"14":0.04,"15":0.035,"16":0.015,"17":0.02,"18":0.01,"19":0.01,"20":0.015,"21":0.015,"23":0.015,"24":0.005,"26":0.005,"28":0.005,"29":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"2":0.005,"3":0.015,"4":0.035,"5":0.08,"6":0.11,"7":0.14,"8":0.185,"9":0.125,"10":0.105,"11":0.075,"12":0.06,"13":0.035,"14":0.015,"15":0.01,"16":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"1":0.025,"2":0.06,"3":0.07,"4":0.175,"5":0.2,"6":0.175,"7":0.135,"8":0.075,"9":0.035,"10":0.01,"11":0.02,"12":0.01,"13":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.03,"1":0.09,"2":0.125,"3":0.085,"4":0.11,"5":0.155,"6":0.11,"7":0.085,"8":0.055,"9":0.03,"10":0.045,"11":0.015,"12":0.025,"13":0.01,"15":0.01,"18":0.01,"20":0.005,"26":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1551484800000,"validUntil":1554076800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":4,"actual":1,"trainingCount":3901,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2019","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.2825,"mean":1.16,"median":1,"bias":0.15999999999999992,"maeMean":0.15999999999999992,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.4,"pitUpper":0.69,"empiricalMass":0.29,"logScore":1.2378743560016174},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.30505000000000004,"mean":1.37,"median":1,"bias":0.3700000000000001,"maeMean":0.3700000000000001,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.365,"pitUpper":0.655,"empiricalMass":0.29,"logScore":1.2378743560016174},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.26975000000000005,"mean":1.04,"median":1,"bias":0.040000000000000036,"maeMean":0.040000000000000036,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.425,"pitUpper":0.73,"empiricalMass":0.305,"logScore":1.1874435023747254},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.24182499999999996,"mean":1.245,"median":1,"bias":0.2450000000000001,"maeMean":0.2450000000000001,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.31,"pitUpper":0.65,"empiricalMass":0.34,"logScore":1.0788096613719298},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.28729999999999994,"mean":0.69,"median":0,"bias":-0.31000000000000005,"maeMean":0.31000000000000005,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.51,"pitUpper":0.84,"empiricalMass":0.33,"logScore":1.1086626245216111},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.2982250000000001,"mean":0.625,"median":0,"bias":-0.375,"maeMean":0.375,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.53,"pitUpper":0.87,"empiricalMass":0.34,"logScore":1.0788096613719298}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.4,"1":0.29,"2":0.16,"3":0.095,"4":0.03,"5":0.01,"6":0.01,"7":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.365,"1":0.29,"2":0.155,"3":0.075,"4":0.06,"5":0.035,"6":0.015,"8":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.425,"1":0.305,"2":0.155,"3":0.065,"4":0.03,"5":0.01,"6":0.01},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.31,"1":0.34,"2":0.21,"3":0.08,"4":0.055,"5":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.51,"1":0.33,"2":0.12,"3":0.04},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.53,"1":0.34,"2":0.11,"3":0.015,"4":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1554076800000,"validUntil":1554163200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":2,"actual":2,"trainingCount":3938,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2019","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.7076500000000001,"mean":1.57,"median":1,"bias":-0.42999999999999994,"maeMean":0.42999999999999994,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.68,"pitUpper":0.78,"empiricalMass":0.1,"logScore":2.3025850929940455},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.6403750000000001,"mean":1.595,"median":1,"bias":-0.405,"maeMean":0.405,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.65,"pitUpper":0.79,"empiricalMass":0.14,"logScore":1.9661128563728327},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.5975250000000001,"mean":1.375,"median":1,"bias":-0.625,"maeMean":0.625,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.635,"pitUpper":0.81,"empiricalMass":0.175,"logScore":1.742969305058623},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.33572500000000005,"mean":2.195,"median":2,"bias":0.19499999999999984,"maeMean":0.19499999999999984,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.37,"pitUpper":0.615,"empiricalMass":0.245,"logScore":1.40649706843741},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.428125,"mean":1.325,"median":1,"bias":-0.675,"maeMean":0.675,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.59,"pitUpper":0.86,"empiricalMass":0.27,"logScore":1.3093333199837622},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.789075,"mean":1.295,"median":1,"bias":-0.7050000000000001,"maeMean":0.7050000000000001,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.745,"pitUpper":0.83,"empiricalMass":0.085,"logScore":2.4651040224918206}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.42,"1":0.26,"2":0.1,"3":0.115,"4":0.04,"5":0.025,"7":0.015,"8":0.005,"9":0.005,"10":0.005,"11":0.005,"37":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.39,"1":0.26,"2":0.14,"3":0.1,"4":0.035,"5":0.035,"6":0.015,"7":0.005,"8":0.01,"19":0.005,"28":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.385,"1":0.25,"2":0.175,"3":0.11,"4":0.035,"5":0.015,"6":0.01,"7":0.01,"9":0.005,"11":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.11,"1":0.26,"2":0.245,"3":0.21,"4":0.09,"5":0.06,"6":0.02,"7":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.245,"1":0.345,"2":0.27,"3":0.12,"4":0.02},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.43,"1":0.315,"2":0.085,"3":0.05,"4":0.07,"5":0.015,"6":0.005,"7":0.005,"8":0.005,"9":0.01,"11":0.01}}},{"issuedAt":1554076800000,"validUntil":1554163200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":3,"actual":0,"trainingCount":3938,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2019","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.013850000000000001,"mean":0.17,"median":0,"bias":0.17,"maeMean":0.17,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.885,"empiricalMass":0.885,"logScore":0.12216763397420753},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.02504999999999999,"mean":0.24,"median":0,"bias":0.24,"maeMean":0.24,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.855,"empiricalMass":0.855,"logScore":0.15665381004537685},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.028249999999999997,"mean":0.21,"median":0,"bias":0.21,"maeMean":0.21,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.835,"empiricalMass":0.835,"logScore":0.18032355413128162},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.08325000000000002,"mean":0.33,"median":0,"bias":0.33,"maeMean":0.33,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.715,"empiricalMass":0.715,"logScore":0.33547273628812946},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.04625000000000001,"mean":0.22,"median":0,"bias":0.22,"maeMean":0.22,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.785,"empiricalMass":0.785,"logScore":0.24207156119972859},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.019850000000000007,"mean":0.18,"median":0,"bias":0.18,"maeMean":0.18,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.865,"empiricalMass":0.865,"logScore":0.14502577205025774}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.885,"1":0.095,"2":0.01,"3":0.005,"8":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.855,"1":0.085,"2":0.045,"3":0.005,"5":0.01},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.835,"1":0.135,"2":0.02,"3":0.005,"4":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.715,"1":0.24,"2":0.045},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.785,"1":0.21,"2":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.865,"1":0.095,"2":0.035,"3":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1554076800000,"validUntil":1554163200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":3938,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2019","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.0012500000000000011,"mean":0.04,"median":0,"bias":0.04,"maeMean":0.04,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.965,"empiricalMass":0.965,"logScore":0.03562717764315116},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.0002249999999999995,"mean":0.015,"median":0,"bias":0.015,"maeMean":0.015,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.985,"empiricalMass":0.985,"logScore":0.015113637810048184},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.00042500000000000177,"mean":0.025,"median":0,"bias":0.025,"maeMean":0.025,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.98,"empiricalMass":0.98,"logScore":0.020202707317519466},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.0012250000000000039,"mean":0.035,"median":0,"bias":0.035,"maeMean":0.035,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.965,"empiricalMass":0.965,"logScore":0.03562717764315116},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.0002249999999999995,"mean":0.015,"median":0,"bias":0.015,"maeMean":0.015,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.985,"empiricalMass":0.985,"logScore":0.015113637810048184},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.0002249999999999995,"mean":0.015,"median":0,"bias":0.015,"maeMean":0.015,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.985,"empiricalMass":0.985,"logScore":0.015113637810048184}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.965,"1":0.03,"2":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.985,"1":0.015},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.98,"1":0.015,"2":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.965,"1":0.035},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.985,"1":0.015},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.985,"1":0.015}}},{"issuedAt":1554076800000,"validUntil":1554681600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":2,"actual":6,"trainingCount":3938,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2019","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":3.3804000000000007,"mean":13.5,"median":11,"bias":7.5,"maeMean":7.5,"maeMedian":5,"low":3,"high":33,"coverage":true,"width":30,"pitLower":0.145,"pitUpper":0.22,"empiricalMass":0.075,"logScore":2.5902671654458267},"rollingETAS":{"crps":2.9053250000000004,"mean":13.155,"median":10,"bias":7.154999999999999,"maeMean":7.154999999999999,"maeMedian":4,"low":3,"high":32,"coverage":true,"width":29,"pitLower":0.17,"pitUpper":0.23,"empiricalMass":0.06,"logScore":2.8134107167600364},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":3.4477999999999995,"mean":12.73,"median":12,"bias":6.73,"maeMean":6.73,"maeMedian":6,"low":4,"high":25,"coverage":true,"width":21,"pitLower":0.12,"pitUpper":0.175,"empiricalMass":0.055,"logScore":2.900422093749666},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":6.342124999999999,"mean":14.545,"median":14,"bias":8.545,"maeMean":8.545,"maeMedian":8,"low":8,"high":21,"coverage":false,"width":13,"pitLower":0.005,"pitUpper":0.015,"empiricalMass":0.01,"logScore":4.605170185988091},"recentPoisson":{"crps":1.94365,"mean":9.32,"median":9,"bias":3.3200000000000003,"maeMean":3.3200000000000003,"maeMedian":3,"low":5,"high":14,"coverage":true,"width":9,"pitLower":0.09,"pitUpper":0.185,"empiricalMass":0.095,"logScore":2.353878387381596},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":1.8537,"mean":9.55,"median":8,"bias":3.5500000000000007,"maeMean":3.5500000000000007,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":24,"coverage":true,"width":24,"pitLower":0.37,"pitUpper":0.435,"empiricalMass":0.065,"logScore":2.7333680090865}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"2":0.02,"3":0.035,"4":0.04,"5":0.05,"6":0.075,"7":0.065,"8":0.065,"9":0.045,"10":0.065,"11":0.06,"12":0.05,"13":0.055,"14":0.04,"15":0.02,"16":0.035,"17":0.015,"18":0.04,"19":0.03,"20":0.025,"21":0.025,"22":0.01,"23":0.015,"24":0.02,"26":0.01,"27":0.015,"28":0.015,"30":0.005,"33":0.005,"34":0.01,"36":0.005,"37":0.01,"38":0.01,"46":0.005,"49":0.005,"62":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.005,"1":0.01,"2":0.02,"3":0.02,"4":0.065,"5":0.05,"6":0.06,"7":0.05,"8":0.105,"9":0.075,"10":0.07,"11":0.085,"12":0.045,"13":0.035,"14":0.015,"15":0.005,"16":0.05,"17":0.015,"18":0.03,"19":0.005,"20":0.02,"21":0.02,"22":0.005,"23":0.01,"24":0.015,"25":0.015,"26":0.015,"27":0.005,"28":0.015,"29":0.005,"30":0.005,"32":0.01,"37":0.01,"44":0.005,"46":0.005,"49":0.01,"50":0.005,"57":0.005,"81":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"1":0.01,"2":0.01,"3":0.025,"4":0.03,"5":0.045,"6":0.055,"7":0.07,"8":0.075,"9":0.085,"10":0.045,"11":0.045,"12":0.06,"13":0.055,"14":0.03,"15":0.045,"16":0.055,"17":0.035,"18":0.045,"19":0.025,"20":0.03,"21":0.025,"22":0.025,"23":0.005,"24":0.01,"25":0.01,"26":0.01,"27":0.015,"29":0.005,"30":0.005,"31":0.005,"42":0.005,"51":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"5":0.005,"6":0.01,"7":0.01,"8":0.03,"9":0.05,"10":0.05,"11":0.065,"12":0.08,"13":0.12,"14":0.095,"15":0.095,"16":0.075,"17":0.095,"18":0.08,"19":0.025,"20":0.03,"21":0.035,"22":0.025,"23":0.01,"24":0.01,"25":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"3":0.02,"4":0.02,"5":0.05,"6":0.095,"7":0.105,"8":0.135,"9":0.13,"10":0.07,"11":0.135,"12":0.07,"13":0.08,"14":0.055,"15":0.025,"16":0.005,"17":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.06,"1":0.05,"2":0.07,"3":0.065,"4":0.055,"5":0.07,"6":0.065,"7":0.05,"8":0.07,"9":0.035,"10":0.045,"11":0.055,"12":0.02,"13":0.045,"14":0.03,"15":0.03,"16":0.015,"17":0.02,"18":0.02,"19":0.015,"20":0.025,"21":0.015,"22":0.015,"24":0.01,"25":0.01,"27":0.005,"30":0.01,"31":0.005,"33":0.005,"35":0.005,"36":0.005,"52":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1554076800000,"validUntil":1554681600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":3,"actual":0,"trainingCount":3938,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2019","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.74065,"mean":1.77,"median":1,"bias":1.77,"maeMean":1.77,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.33,"empiricalMass":0.33,"logScore":1.1086626245216111},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.6962000000000002,"mean":1.8,"median":1,"bias":1.8,"maeMean":1.8,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":7,"coverage":true,"width":7,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.32,"empiricalMass":0.32,"logScore":1.1394342831883648},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.674325,"mean":1.535,"median":1,"bias":1.535,"maeMean":1.535,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.32,"empiricalMass":0.32,"logScore":1.1394342831883648},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":1.4227750000000001,"mean":2.125,"median":2,"bias":2.125,"maeMean":2.125,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.095,"empiricalMass":0.095,"logScore":2.353878387381596},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.7234750000000001,"mean":1.425,"median":1,"bias":1.425,"maeMean":1.425,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.3,"empiricalMass":0.3,"logScore":1.2039728043259361},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.408625,"mean":1.175,"median":1,"bias":1.175,"maeMean":1.175,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.48,"empiricalMass":0.48,"logScore":0.7339691750802004}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.33,"1":0.23,"2":0.19,"3":0.105,"4":0.05,"5":0.045,"6":0.01,"7":0.015,"9":0.015,"11":0.005,"13":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.32,"1":0.32,"2":0.115,"3":0.095,"4":0.045,"5":0.035,"6":0.015,"7":0.015,"8":0.015,"9":0.015,"12":0.005,"20":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.32,"1":0.295,"2":0.17,"3":0.105,"4":0.055,"5":0.015,"6":0.015,"7":0.02,"12":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.095,"1":0.23,"2":0.325,"3":0.195,"4":0.115,"5":0.04},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.3,"1":0.27,"2":0.22,"3":0.145,"4":0.05,"5":0.01,"6":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.48,"1":0.2,"2":0.155,"3":0.085,"4":0.045,"5":0.01,"6":0.01,"7":0.005,"8":0.005,"9":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1554076800000,"validUntil":1554681600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":3938,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2019","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.02232500000000001,"mean":0.195,"median":0,"bias":0.195,"maeMean":0.195,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.855,"empiricalMass":0.855,"logScore":0.15665381004537685},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.03535000000000002,"mean":0.26,"median":0,"bias":0.26,"maeMean":0.26,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.82,"empiricalMass":0.82,"logScore":0.19845093872383832},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.021150000000000002,"mean":0.16,"median":0,"bias":0.16,"maeMean":0.16,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.855,"empiricalMass":0.855,"logScore":0.15665381004537685},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.05922499999999997,"mean":0.285,"median":0,"bias":0.285,"maeMean":0.285,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.76,"empiricalMass":0.76,"logScore":0.2744368457017603},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.009124999999999994,"mean":0.105,"median":0,"bias":0.105,"maeMean":0.105,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.905,"empiricalMass":0.905,"logScore":0.0998203352822109},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.02815000000000001,"mean":0.2,"median":0,"bias":0.2,"maeMean":0.2,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.835,"empiricalMass":0.835,"logScore":0.18032355413128162}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.855,"1":0.115,"2":0.01,"3":0.02},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.82,"1":0.13,"2":0.03,"3":0.015,"5":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.855,"1":0.135,"2":0.005,"3":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.76,"1":0.2,"2":0.035,"3":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.905,"1":0.085,"2":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.835,"1":0.135,"2":0.025,"3":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1554076800000,"validUntil":1556668800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":2,"actual":32,"trainingCount":3938,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2019","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":14.456425,"mean":59.395,"median":54,"bias":27.395000000000003,"maeMean":27.395000000000003,"maeMedian":22,"low":27,"high":103,"coverage":true,"width":76,"pitLower":0.115,"pitUpper":0.14,"empiricalMass":0.025,"logScore":3.6888794541139363},"rollingETAS":{"crps":18.700499999999998,"mean":69.27,"median":59,"bias":37.269999999999996,"maeMean":37.269999999999996,"maeMedian":27,"low":30,"high":135,"coverage":true,"width":105,"pitLower":0.07,"pitUpper":0.08,"empiricalMass":0.01,"logScore":4.605170185988091},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":15.662125,"mean":60.885,"median":54.5,"bias":28.884999999999998,"maeMean":28.884999999999998,"maeMedian":22.5,"low":28,"high":112,"coverage":true,"width":84,"pitLower":0.095,"pitUpper":0.11,"empiricalMass":0.015,"logScore":4.199705077879927},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":25.395599999999998,"mean":61.81,"median":62,"bias":29.810000000000002,"maeMean":29.810000000000002,"maeMedian":30,"low":49,"high":75,"coverage":false,"width":26,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentPoisson":{"crps":3.5599250000000002,"mean":37.955,"median":38,"bias":5.954999999999998,"maeMean":5.954999999999998,"maeMedian":6,"low":28,"high":48,"coverage":true,"width":20,"pitLower":0.125,"pitUpper":0.17,"empiricalMass":0.045,"logScore":3.101092789211817},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":4.672000000000001,"mean":39.91,"median":39,"bias":7.909999999999997,"maeMean":7.909999999999997,"maeMedian":7,"low":16,"high":71,"coverage":true,"width":55,"pitLower":0.285,"pitUpper":0.315,"empiricalMass":0.03,"logScore":3.506557897319982}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"19":0.005,"20":0.005,"22":0.01,"24":0.005,"25":0.005,"26":0.01,"27":0.01,"28":0.015,"29":0.01,"30":0.015,"31":0.025,"32":0.025,"33":0.005,"34":0.005,"35":0.02,"36":0.015,"37":0.015,"38":0.015,"39":0.015,"40":0.01,"41":0.015,"42":0.015,"43":0.025,"44":0.005,"45":0.01,"46":0.03,"47":0.015,"48":0.015,"49":0.02,"50":0.025,"51":0.01,"52":0.015,"53":0.03,"54":0.04,"55":0.02,"56":0.02,"57":0.025,"58":0.005,"59":0.005,"60":0.02,"61":0.015,"62":0.01,"63":0.01,"64":0.03,"65":0.025,"66":0.02,"67":0.005,"68":0.01,"69":0.015,"70":0.01,"71":0.015,"72":0.01,"73":0.005,"74":0.025,"75":0.015,"80":0.005,"81":0.005,"82":0.005,"83":0.01,"84":0.005,"85":0.005,"86":0.005,"89":0.015,"90":0.01,"93":0.01,"94":0.005,"96":0.005,"97":0.02,"98":0.005,"102":0.01,"103":0.005,"104":0.005,"106":0.005,"107":0.005,"118":0.005,"119":0.005,"128":0.005,"140":0.005,"157":0.005,"159":0.005,"259":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"23":0.005,"24":0.005,"25":0.01,"26":0.01,"27":0.01,"28":0.005,"30":0.005,"31":0.02,"32":0.01,"33":0.02,"34":0.01,"35":0.015,"36":0.015,"37":0.02,"38":0.02,"40":0.02,"41":0.01,"42":0.015,"43":0.015,"44":0.02,"45":0.02,"46":0.01,"47":0.015,"49":0.01,"50":0.02,"51":0.02,"52":0.02,"53":0.01,"54":0.01,"55":0.015,"56":0.02,"57":0.015,"58":0.03,"59":0.03,"60":0.02,"61":0.025,"62":0.015,"64":0.01,"65":0.01,"66":0.025,"67":0.005,"68":0.01,"69":0.01,"70":0.005,"71":0.035,"73":0.02,"74":0.01,"75":0.005,"77":0.005,"78":0.01,"79":0.005,"80":0.01,"81":0.005,"82":0.005,"83":0.015,"84":0.005,"85":0.005,"86":0.01,"87":0.01,"88":0.01,"89":0.01,"90":0.005,"92":0.005,"93":0.005,"94":0.005,"95":0.02,"96":0.01,"97":0.005,"99":0.005,"101":0.015,"103":0.005,"105":0.01,"107":0.005,"110":0.005,"111":0.005,"118":0.01,"120":0.005,"125":0.005,"134":0.005,"135":0.005,"141":0.005,"146":0.005,"148":0.005,"149":0.005,"217":0.005,"236":0.005,"245":0.005,"251":0.005,"265":0.005,"296":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"20":0.01,"22":0.005,"23":0.005,"24":0.005,"25":0.005,"26":0.01,"27":0.005,"28":0.02,"29":0.025,"30":0.005,"32":0.015,"33":0.015,"34":0.015,"35":0.005,"36":0.005,"37":0.01,"38":0.015,"39":0.005,"40":0.03,"41":0.03,"42":0.015,"43":0.015,"44":0.01,"45":0.01,"46":0.02,"47":0.025,"48":0.04,"49":0.03,"50":0.025,"51":0.01,"52":0.02,"53":0.01,"54":0.03,"55":0.025,"56":0.01,"57":0.015,"58":0.015,"59":0.015,"60":0.005,"61":0.02,"62":0.005,"63":0.01,"64":0.02,"65":0.03,"66":0.015,"68":0.01,"69":0.005,"70":0.015,"71":0.015,"73":0.005,"74":0.005,"75":0.01,"76":0.015,"77":0.01,"78":0.005,"79":0.015,"80":0.005,"81":0.01,"82":0.015,"85":0.005,"86":0.01,"88":0.005,"89":0.01,"90":0.01,"92":0.005,"93":0.015,"94":0.01,"95":0.005,"98":0.01,"99":0.005,"100":0.005,"102":0.005,"105":0.005,"108":0.005,"109":0.005,"111":0.005,"112":0.005,"115":0.005,"118":0.01,"121":0.005,"123":0.005,"124":0.005,"134":0.005,"140":0.005,"155":0.005,"174":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"37":0.005,"45":0.01,"47":0.01,"48":0.015,"49":0.02,"50":0.015,"51":0.02,"52":0.01,"53":0.03,"54":0.04,"55":0.04,"56":0.055,"57":0.025,"58":0.035,"59":0.065,"60":0.035,"61":0.055,"62":0.04,"63":0.085,"64":0.04,"65":0.045,"66":0.04,"67":0.04,"68":0.04,"69":0.04,"70":0.015,"71":0.015,"72":0.025,"73":0.005,"74":0.03,"75":0.015,"77":0.01,"78":0.005,"79":0.005,"80":0.005,"81":0.005,"83":0.005,"84":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"24":0.01,"27":0.015,"28":0.025,"29":0.02,"30":0.02,"31":0.035,"32":0.045,"33":0.03,"34":0.06,"35":0.065,"36":0.1,"37":0.07,"38":0.075,"39":0.05,"40":0.06,"41":0.065,"42":0.045,"43":0.035,"44":0.04,"45":0.035,"46":0.035,"47":0.01,"48":0.01,"49":0.015,"50":0.015,"51":0.01,"52":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"5":0.005,"10":0.005,"12":0.015,"14":0.01,"15":0.005,"16":0.015,"17":0.005,"18":0.01,"19":0.02,"20":0.02,"21":0.015,"22":0.01,"23":0.01,"24":0.015,"25":0.01,"26":0.015,"27":0.015,"28":0.015,"29":0.02,"30":0.02,"31":0.03,"32":0.03,"33":0.03,"34":0.025,"35":0.035,"36":0.03,"37":0.03,"38":0.005,"39":0.035,"40":0.055,"41":0.03,"42":0.03,"43":0.025,"44":0.03,"45":0.025,"46":0.04,"47":0.015,"48":0.01,"49":0.005,"50":0.005,"51":0.025,"52":0.005,"53":0.005,"54":0.01,"55":0.02,"56":0.005,"57":0.005,"58":0.02,"59":0.02,"60":0.01,"61":0.01,"62":0.005,"63":0.01,"64":0.005,"65":0.005,"66":0.005,"67":0.005,"71":0.005,"72":0.01,"73":0.01,"74":0.01,"75":0.005,"78":0.005,"80":0.005,"88":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1554076800000,"validUntil":1556668800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":3,"actual":1,"trainingCount":3938,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2019","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":3.5872499999999996,"mean":7.05,"median":6,"bias":6.05,"maeMean":6.05,"maeMedian":5,"low":1,"high":15,"coverage":true,"width":14,"pitLower":0.025,"pitUpper":0.06,"empiricalMass":0.035,"logScore":3.3524072174927233},"rollingETAS":{"crps":4.600125,"mean":9.175,"median":7.5,"bias":8.175,"maeMean":8.175,"maeMedian":6.5,"low":2,"high":22,"coverage":false,"width":20,"pitLower":0.02,"pitUpper":0.045,"empiricalMass":0.025,"logScore":3.6888794541139363},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":4.067875,"mean":7.545,"median":7,"bias":6.545,"maeMean":6.545,"maeMedian":6,"low":2,"high":17,"coverage":false,"width":15,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.04,"empiricalMass":0.04,"logScore":3.2188758248682006},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":5.48685,"mean":8.18,"median":8,"bias":7.18,"maeMean":7.18,"maeMedian":7,"low":3,"high":13,"coverage":false,"width":10,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.01,"empiricalMass":0.01,"logScore":4.605170185988091},"recentPoisson":{"crps":3.8920000000000003,"mean":6.12,"median":6,"bias":5.12,"maeMean":5.12,"maeMedian":5,"low":3,"high":10,"coverage":false,"width":7,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.005,"empiricalMass":0.005,"logScore":5.298317366548036},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":2.5941249999999996,"mean":5.795,"median":5,"bias":4.795,"maeMean":4.795,"maeMedian":4,"low":1,"high":15,"coverage":true,"width":14,"pitLower":0.025,"pitUpper":0.125,"empiricalMass":0.1,"logScore":2.3025850929940455}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.025,"1":0.035,"2":0.065,"3":0.09,"4":0.125,"5":0.12,"6":0.085,"7":0.07,"8":0.095,"9":0.04,"10":0.045,"11":0.07,"12":0.02,"13":0.02,"14":0.03,"15":0.015,"16":0.02,"17":0.005,"18":0.01,"19":0.005,"26":0.005,"44":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.02,"1":0.025,"2":0.06,"3":0.065,"4":0.07,"5":0.1,"6":0.07,"7":0.09,"8":0.095,"9":0.055,"10":0.055,"11":0.065,"12":0.03,"13":0.03,"14":0.02,"15":0.035,"16":0.015,"17":0.015,"18":0.01,"20":0.005,"21":0.015,"22":0.005,"23":0.01,"27":0.005,"28":0.005,"33":0.005,"35":0.005,"41":0.005,"42":0.005,"47":0.01},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"1":0.04,"2":0.075,"3":0.07,"4":0.085,"5":0.1,"6":0.12,"7":0.065,"8":0.125,"9":0.045,"10":0.055,"11":0.045,"12":0.04,"13":0.015,"14":0.025,"15":0.015,"16":0.015,"17":0.04,"19":0.01,"20":0.01,"24":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"1":0.01,"2":0.025,"3":0.035,"4":0.045,"5":0.05,"6":0.12,"7":0.12,"8":0.155,"9":0.135,"10":0.07,"11":0.115,"12":0.045,"13":0.03,"14":0.015,"15":0.02,"16":0.005,"17":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"1":0.005,"2":0.035,"3":0.05,"4":0.165,"5":0.16,"6":0.175,"7":0.165,"8":0.105,"9":0.06,"10":0.055,"11":0.01,"12":0.01,"14":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.025,"1":0.1,"2":0.105,"3":0.095,"4":0.135,"5":0.095,"6":0.11,"7":0.09,"8":0.03,"9":0.055,"10":0.03,"11":0.025,"12":0.02,"13":0.02,"14":0.005,"15":0.015,"16":0.03,"17":0.005,"20":0.005,"25":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1554076800000,"validUntil":1556668800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":3938,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2019","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.22735000000000005,"mean":0.77,"median":0,"bias":0.77,"maeMean":0.77,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.575,"empiricalMass":0.575,"logScore":0.5533852381847867},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.4881500000000001,"mean":1.31,"median":1,"bias":1.31,"maeMean":1.31,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.405,"empiricalMass":0.405,"logScore":0.9038682118755978},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.37759999999999994,"mean":0.96,"median":1,"bias":0.96,"maeMean":0.96,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.46,"empiricalMass":0.46,"logScore":0.7765287894989963},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.508525,"mean":1.085,"median":1,"bias":1.085,"maeMean":1.085,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.365,"empiricalMass":0.365,"logScore":1.0078579253996456},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.28035000000000004,"mean":0.67,"median":1,"bias":0.67,"maeMean":0.67,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.485,"empiricalMass":0.485,"logScore":0.7236063880446539},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.23125,"mean":0.61,"median":0,"bias":0.61,"maeMean":0.61,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.535,"empiricalMass":0.535,"logScore":0.6254885320861304}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.575,"1":0.23,"2":0.11,"3":0.05,"4":0.025,"6":0.005,"8":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.405,"1":0.285,"2":0.145,"3":0.09,"4":0.025,"5":0.02,"6":0.005,"8":0.005,"9":0.01,"10":0.005,"11":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.46,"1":0.27,"2":0.16,"3":0.08,"4":0.02,"5":0.01},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.365,"1":0.33,"2":0.2,"3":0.07,"4":0.03,"5":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.485,"1":0.395,"2":0.095,"3":0.015,"4":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.535,"1":0.345,"2":0.095,"3":0.025}}},{"issuedAt":1556668800000,"validUntil":1556755200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":2,"actual":1,"trainingCount":3970,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2019","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.296625,"mean":1.525,"median":1,"bias":0.5249999999999999,"maeMean":0.5249999999999999,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.345,"pitUpper":0.645,"empiricalMass":0.3,"logScore":1.2039728043259361},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.39202499999999996,"mean":1.375,"median":1,"bias":0.375,"maeMean":0.375,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.495,"pitUpper":0.7,"empiricalMass":0.205,"logScore":1.584745299843729},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.28942500000000004,"mean":1.685,"median":1,"bias":0.685,"maeMean":0.685,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.345,"pitUpper":0.655,"empiricalMass":0.31,"logScore":1.171182981502945},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.55225,"mean":2,"median":2,"bias":1,"maeMean":1,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.14,"pitUpper":0.365,"empiricalMass":0.225,"logScore":1.491654876777717},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.26154999999999995,"mean":1.36,"median":1,"bias":0.3600000000000001,"maeMean":0.3600000000000001,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.25,"pitUpper":0.58,"empiricalMass":0.33,"logScore":1.1086626245216111},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.33777500000000005,"mean":1.425,"median":1,"bias":0.42500000000000004,"maeMean":0.42500000000000004,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.38,"pitUpper":0.63,"empiricalMass":0.25,"logScore":1.3862943611198906}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.345,"1":0.3,"2":0.165,"3":0.1,"4":0.04,"5":0.015,"6":0.005,"9":0.01,"11":0.01,"12":0.005,"14":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.495,"1":0.205,"2":0.12,"3":0.06,"4":0.05,"5":0.02,"6":0.02,"7":0.005,"8":0.005,"10":0.005,"11":0.005,"12":0.005,"18":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.345,"1":0.31,"2":0.175,"3":0.075,"4":0.025,"5":0.02,"6":0.01,"7":0.01,"9":0.005,"10":0.005,"11":0.005,"15":0.005,"20":0.005,"29":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.14,"1":0.225,"2":0.305,"3":0.19,"4":0.11,"5":0.025,"6":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.25,"1":0.33,"2":0.275,"3":0.105,"4":0.035,"5":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.38,"1":0.25,"2":0.165,"3":0.105,"4":0.045,"5":0.025,"6":0.01,"7":0.015,"12":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1556668800000,"validUntil":1556755200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":3,"actual":0,"trainingCount":3970,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2019","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.01765,"mean":0.17,"median":0,"bias":0.17,"maeMean":0.17,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.87,"empiricalMass":0.87,"logScore":0.13926206733350766},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.02277499999999999,"mean":0.205,"median":0,"bias":0.205,"maeMean":0.205,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.855,"empiricalMass":0.855,"logScore":0.15665381004537685},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.026999999999999996,"mean":0.23,"median":0,"bias":0.23,"maeMean":0.23,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.84,"empiricalMass":0.84,"logScore":0.1743533871447778},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.04735,"mean":0.26,"median":0,"bias":0.26,"maeMean":0.26,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.785,"empiricalMass":0.785,"logScore":0.24207156119972859},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.03864999999999999,"mean":0.22,"median":0,"bias":0.22,"maeMean":0.22,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.805,"empiricalMass":0.805,"logScore":0.21691300156357363},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.019775000000000015,"mean":0.225,"median":0,"bias":0.225,"maeMean":0.225,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.875,"empiricalMass":0.875,"logScore":0.13353139262452263}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.87,"1":0.105,"2":0.015,"3":0.005,"4":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.855,"1":0.105,"2":0.03,"3":0.005,"5":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.84,"1":0.13,"2":0.015,"4":0.01,"6":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.785,"1":0.185,"2":0.015,"3":0.015},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.805,"1":0.17,"2":0.025},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.875,"1":0.065,"2":0.04,"3":0.01,"4":0.005,"6":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1556668800000,"validUntil":1556755200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":3970,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2019","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.00040000000000000105,"mean":0.02,"median":0,"bias":0.02,"maeMean":0.02,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.98,"empiricalMass":0.98,"logScore":0.020202707317519466},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.0016000000000000042,"mean":0.04,"median":0,"bias":0.04,"maeMean":0.04,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.96,"empiricalMass":0.96,"logScore":0.040821994520255166},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.0002249999999999995,"mean":0.015,"median":0,"bias":0.015,"maeMean":0.015,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.985,"empiricalMass":0.985,"logScore":0.015113637810048184},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.00040000000000000105,"mean":0.02,"median":0,"bias":0.02,"maeMean":0.02,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.98,"empiricalMass":0.98,"logScore":0.020202707317519466},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.00040000000000000105,"mean":0.02,"median":0,"bias":0.02,"maeMean":0.02,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.98,"empiricalMass":0.98,"logScore":0.020202707317519466},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.0000999999999999994,"mean":0.01,"median":0,"bias":0.01,"maeMean":0.01,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.99,"empiricalMass":0.99,"logScore":0.01005033585350145}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.98,"1":0.02},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.96,"1":0.04},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.985,"1":0.015},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.98,"1":0.02},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.98,"1":0.02},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.99,"1":0.01}}},{"issuedAt":1556668800000,"validUntil":1557273600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":2,"actual":5,"trainingCount":3970,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2019","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":3.474149999999999,"mean":12.48,"median":10.5,"bias":7.48,"maeMean":7.48,"maeMedian":5.5,"low":3,"high":27,"coverage":true,"width":24,"pitLower":0.13,"pitUpper":0.18,"empiricalMass":0.05,"logScore":2.995732273553991},"rollingETAS":{"crps":2.6038250000000005,"mean":11.295,"median":9,"bias":6.295,"maeMean":6.295,"maeMedian":4,"low":3,"high":29,"coverage":true,"width":26,"pitLower":0.145,"pitUpper":0.235,"empiricalMass":0.09,"logScore":2.4079456086518722},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":3.174524999999999,"mean":12.675,"median":10,"bias":7.675000000000001,"maeMean":7.675000000000001,"maeMedian":5,"low":3,"high":31,"coverage":true,"width":28,"pitLower":0.125,"pitUpper":0.2,"empiricalMass":0.075,"logScore":2.5902671654458267},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":7.0722,"mean":14.16,"median":14,"bias":9.16,"maeMean":9.16,"maeMedian":9,"low":8,"high":20,"coverage":false,"width":12,"pitLower":0.005,"pitUpper":0.005,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentPoisson":{"crps":2.902775,"mean":9.545,"median":10,"bias":4.545,"maeMean":4.545,"maeMedian":5,"low":5,"high":15,"coverage":true,"width":10,"pitLower":0.035,"pitUpper":0.09,"empiricalMass":0.055,"logScore":2.900422093749666},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":1.5563500000000001,"mean":8.47,"median":7,"bias":3.4700000000000006,"maeMean":3.4700000000000006,"maeMedian":2,"low":1,"high":23,"coverage":true,"width":22,"pitLower":0.345,"pitUpper":0.395,"empiricalMass":0.05,"logScore":2.995732273553991}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.01,"1":0.015,"2":0.02,"3":0.025,"4":0.06,"5":0.05,"6":0.06,"7":0.095,"8":0.045,"9":0.065,"10":0.055,"11":0.1,"12":0.04,"13":0.05,"14":0.015,"15":0.04,"16":0.01,"17":0.01,"18":0.03,"19":0.035,"20":0.02,"21":0.015,"22":0.02,"23":0.03,"24":0.015,"25":0.005,"26":0.005,"27":0.02,"30":0.005,"34":0.005,"36":0.005,"40":0.005,"42":0.005,"48":0.005,"54":0.005,"69":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"1":0.02,"2":0.02,"3":0.035,"4":0.07,"5":0.09,"6":0.085,"7":0.065,"8":0.1,"9":0.075,"10":0.045,"11":0.055,"12":0.035,"13":0.045,"14":0.035,"15":0.015,"16":0.02,"17":0.035,"18":0.015,"19":0.025,"20":0.02,"21":0.005,"23":0.01,"24":0.01,"26":0.01,"29":0.01,"32":0.005,"34":0.005,"35":0.005,"36":0.005,"38":0.005,"39":0.005,"40":0.005,"41":0.005,"48":0.005,"57":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"1":0.005,"2":0.03,"3":0.035,"4":0.055,"5":0.075,"6":0.08,"7":0.07,"8":0.07,"9":0.055,"10":0.055,"11":0.09,"12":0.03,"13":0.04,"14":0.04,"15":0.03,"16":0.025,"17":0.04,"18":0.01,"19":0.01,"20":0.02,"21":0.015,"22":0.015,"23":0.005,"24":0.015,"25":0.005,"27":0.005,"29":0.01,"30":0.005,"31":0.01,"33":0.005,"34":0.005,"36":0.01,"44":0.005,"46":0.005,"52":0.005,"61":0.005,"75":0.005,"78":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"3":0.005,"6":0.01,"7":0.02,"8":0.04,"9":0.015,"10":0.065,"11":0.085,"12":0.11,"13":0.105,"14":0.06,"15":0.135,"16":0.085,"17":0.085,"18":0.06,"19":0.035,"20":0.035,"21":0.02,"22":0.01,"23":0.015,"24":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"3":0.02,"4":0.015,"5":0.055,"6":0.09,"7":0.11,"8":0.11,"9":0.085,"10":0.11,"11":0.14,"12":0.115,"13":0.055,"14":0.035,"15":0.025,"16":0.01,"17":0.015,"18":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.015,"1":0.065,"2":0.095,"3":0.08,"4":0.09,"5":0.05,"6":0.085,"7":0.075,"8":0.08,"9":0.045,"10":0.075,"11":0.02,"12":0.035,"13":0.04,"14":0.005,"15":0.02,"16":0.02,"17":0.005,"18":0.015,"20":0.01,"21":0.005,"22":0.015,"23":0.015,"26":0.01,"29":0.005,"31":0.005,"32":0.005,"33":0.01,"60":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1556668800000,"validUntil":1557273600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":3,"actual":0,"trainingCount":3970,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2019","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.6925999999999999,"mean":1.67,"median":1,"bias":1.67,"maeMean":1.67,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":6,"coverage":true,"width":6,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.325,"empiricalMass":0.325,"logScore":1.1239300966523995},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.535625,"mean":1.445,"median":1,"bias":1.445,"maeMean":1.445,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.395,"empiricalMass":0.395,"logScore":0.9288695140810151},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.66875,"mean":1.66,"median":1,"bias":1.66,"maeMean":1.66,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":6,"coverage":true,"width":6,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.345,"empiricalMass":0.345,"logScore":1.0642108619507773},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":1.030075,"mean":1.715,"median":1,"bias":1.715,"maeMean":1.715,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.14,"empiricalMass":0.14,"logScore":1.9661128563728327},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.8526499999999999,"mean":1.43,"median":1,"bias":1.43,"maeMean":1.43,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.19,"empiricalMass":0.19,"logScore":1.6607312068216509},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.530975,"mean":1.365,"median":1,"bias":1.365,"maeMean":1.365,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.42,"empiricalMass":0.42,"logScore":0.8675005677047231}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.325,"1":0.3,"2":0.13,"3":0.085,"4":0.085,"5":0.02,"6":0.02,"7":0.01,"8":0.015,"10":0.005,"11":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.395,"1":0.27,"2":0.155,"3":0.055,"4":0.05,"5":0.03,"6":0.015,"7":0.005,"8":0.015,"9":0.005,"12":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.345,"1":0.25,"2":0.2,"3":0.06,"4":0.055,"5":0.035,"6":0.03,"7":0.01,"10":0.005,"11":0.005,"16":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.14,"1":0.395,"2":0.21,"3":0.165,"4":0.06,"5":0.015,"6":0.015},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.19,"1":0.395,"2":0.265,"3":0.11,"4":0.025,"5":0.015},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.42,"1":0.205,"2":0.18,"3":0.095,"4":0.03,"5":0.04,"6":0.02,"7":0.005,"8":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1556668800000,"validUntil":1557273600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":3970,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2019","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.017325000000000007,"mean":0.155,"median":0,"bias":0.155,"maeMean":0.155,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.87,"empiricalMass":0.87,"logScore":0.13926206733350766},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.02252499999999999,"mean":0.215,"median":0,"bias":0.215,"maeMean":0.215,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.86,"empiricalMass":0.86,"logScore":0.15082288973458366},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.017024999999999985,"mean":0.185,"median":0,"bias":0.185,"maeMean":0.185,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.875,"empiricalMass":0.875,"logScore":0.13353139262452263},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.035225000000000006,"mean":0.225,"median":0,"bias":0.225,"maeMean":0.225,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.815,"empiricalMass":0.815,"logScore":0.2045671657412744},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.019724999999999993,"mean":0.155,"median":0,"bias":0.155,"maeMean":0.155,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.86,"empiricalMass":0.86,"logScore":0.15082288973458366},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.02890000000000001,"mean":0.17,"median":0,"bias":0.17,"maeMean":0.17,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.83,"empiricalMass":0.83,"logScore":0.18632957819149348}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.87,"1":0.11,"2":0.015,"3":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.86,"1":0.09,"2":0.03,"3":0.015,"4":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.875,"1":0.09,"2":0.025,"3":0.005,"6":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.815,"1":0.155,"2":0.02,"3":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.86,"1":0.13,"2":0.005,"3":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.83,"1":0.17}}},{"issuedAt":1556668800000,"validUntil":1559260800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":2,"actual":24,"trainingCount":3970,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2019","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":20.650024999999996,"mean":57.445,"median":52,"bias":33.445,"maeMean":33.445,"maeMedian":28,"low":29,"high":107,"coverage":false,"width":78,"pitLower":0.01,"pitUpper":0.015,"empiricalMass":0.005,"logScore":5.298317366548036},"rollingETAS":{"crps":20.846875,"mean":63.335,"median":53,"bias":39.335,"maeMean":39.335,"maeMedian":29,"low":26,"high":129,"coverage":false,"width":103,"pitLower":0.02,"pitUpper":0.035,"empiricalMass":0.015,"logScore":4.199705077879927},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":20.910200000000003,"mean":58.9,"median":52,"bias":34.9,"maeMean":34.9,"maeMedian":28,"low":27,"high":113,"coverage":false,"width":86,"pitLower":0.02,"pitUpper":0.025,"empiricalMass":0.005,"logScore":5.298317366548036},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":32.585950000000004,"mean":60.92,"median":61,"bias":36.92,"maeMean":36.92,"maeMedian":37,"low":50,"high":73,"coverage":false,"width":23,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentPoisson":{"crps":12.533549999999998,"mean":39.95,"median":39.5,"bias":15.950000000000003,"maeMean":15.950000000000003,"maeMedian":15.5,"low":31,"high":51,"coverage":false,"width":20,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":8.271625,"mean":38.945,"median":37,"bias":14.945,"maeMean":14.945,"maeMedian":13,"low":18,"high":66,"coverage":true,"width":48,"pitLower":0.13,"pitUpper":0.145,"empiricalMass":0.015,"logScore":4.199705077879927}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"18":0.005,"21":0.005,"24":0.005,"25":0.005,"26":0.005,"27":0.005,"28":0.01,"29":0.01,"30":0.02,"33":0.03,"34":0.03,"35":0.025,"36":0.01,"37":0.02,"38":0.025,"39":0.03,"40":0.02,"41":0.02,"42":0.03,"43":0.02,"44":0.025,"45":0.025,"46":0.02,"47":0.01,"48":0.025,"49":0.02,"50":0.01,"51":0.015,"52":0.035,"53":0.02,"54":0.015,"56":0.025,"57":0.015,"58":0.02,"59":0.005,"60":0.03,"61":0.025,"62":0.02,"63":0.015,"64":0.015,"66":0.01,"67":0.02,"68":0.005,"69":0.005,"70":0.015,"71":0.02,"72":0.02,"73":0.005,"74":0.005,"75":0.01,"77":0.005,"78":0.01,"79":0.005,"80":0.025,"81":0.005,"82":0.005,"84":0.005,"86":0.005,"89":0.005,"92":0.01,"97":0.015,"98":0.005,"101":0.005,"102":0.005,"107":0.005,"112":0.005,"119":0.005,"120":0.005,"122":0.005,"124":0.005,"134":0.005,"139":0.005,"140":0.005,"142":0.005,"174":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"21":0.005,"22":0.005,"23":0.01,"24":0.015,"26":0.015,"27":0.015,"28":0.01,"29":0.005,"30":0.03,"31":0.02,"32":0.025,"33":0.01,"34":0.01,"35":0.02,"36":0.025,"37":0.015,"38":0.025,"39":0.02,"40":0.035,"41":0.02,"42":0.005,"43":0.01,"44":0.025,"45":0.03,"46":0.005,"47":0.01,"48":0.03,"49":0.005,"50":0.025,"51":0.015,"53":0.01,"54":0.01,"56":0.015,"57":0.01,"58":0.01,"59":0.02,"60":0.005,"61":0.025,"62":0.015,"63":0.02,"64":0.02,"65":0.015,"66":0.005,"67":0.005,"68":0.005,"69":0.01,"70":0.01,"71":0.005,"72":0.015,"73":0.005,"74":0.005,"75":0.005,"76":0.015,"77":0.01,"78":0.01,"80":0.01,"81":0.01,"84":0.005,"85":0.01,"86":0.005,"89":0.005,"90":0.005,"92":0.005,"93":0.005,"94":0.015,"95":0.005,"97":0.005,"99":0.005,"100":0.005,"102":0.015,"104":0.01,"105":0.005,"109":0.005,"113":0.005,"117":0.01,"119":0.005,"120":0.005,"121":0.005,"122":0.005,"126":0.005,"129":0.005,"132":0.005,"139":0.005,"144":0.01,"161":0.005,"166":0.005,"191":0.01,"245":0.005,"293":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"20":0.01,"21":0.005,"22":0.005,"24":0.005,"25":0.005,"26":0.005,"27":0.02,"29":0.005,"30":0.005,"31":0.02,"32":0.015,"34":0.02,"35":0.03,"36":0.005,"37":0.005,"38":0.015,"39":0.03,"40":0.025,"41":0.02,"42":0.04,"43":0.015,"44":0.02,"45":0.015,"46":0.035,"47":0.035,"48":0.025,"49":0.035,"50":0.01,"51":0.01,"52":0.035,"53":0.02,"54":0.02,"55":0.01,"56":0.015,"57":0.015,"58":0.015,"60":0.02,"61":0.02,"62":0.015,"63":0.01,"64":0.015,"65":0.01,"66":0.02,"68":0.025,"69":0.005,"70":0.015,"71":0.01,"72":0.01,"73":0.01,"75":0.015,"76":0.005,"77":0.005,"78":0.005,"79":0.01,"80":0.01,"81":0.02,"82":0.015,"84":0.01,"85":0.005,"89":0.005,"90":0.005,"93":0.005,"97":0.005,"103":0.005,"107":0.005,"112":0.005,"113":0.01,"115":0.005,"119":0.005,"126":0.005,"127":0.005,"133":0.005,"145":0.005,"170":0.005,"171":0.005,"186":0.005,"238":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"45":0.005,"46":0.01,"47":0.015,"48":0.005,"49":0.005,"50":0.03,"51":0.04,"52":0.045,"53":0.01,"54":0.04,"55":0.04,"56":0.06,"57":0.075,"58":0.06,"59":0.02,"60":0.035,"61":0.035,"62":0.075,"63":0.04,"64":0.055,"65":0.035,"66":0.04,"67":0.04,"68":0.015,"69":0.03,"70":0.025,"71":0.015,"72":0.02,"73":0.035,"74":0.005,"75":0.005,"76":0.005,"77":0.005,"78":0.005,"80":0.005,"82":0.005,"84":0.005,"86":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"26":0.005,"28":0.01,"29":0.01,"30":0.01,"31":0.03,"32":0.035,"33":0.045,"34":0.045,"35":0.055,"36":0.06,"37":0.08,"38":0.055,"39":0.06,"40":0.045,"41":0.09,"42":0.065,"43":0.05,"44":0.035,"45":0.035,"46":0.025,"47":0.025,"48":0.03,"49":0.025,"50":0.01,"51":0.03,"53":0.02,"55":0.005,"56":0.005,"58":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"11":0.005,"13":0.01,"14":0.01,"15":0.005,"17":0.01,"18":0.02,"19":0.015,"20":0.015,"21":0.02,"23":0.02,"24":0.015,"25":0.02,"26":0.035,"27":0.035,"28":0.015,"29":0.025,"30":0.04,"31":0.025,"32":0.025,"33":0.03,"34":0.005,"35":0.045,"36":0.05,"37":0.025,"38":0.025,"39":0.03,"40":0.03,"41":0.02,"42":0.01,"43":0.035,"44":0.025,"45":0.005,"46":0.015,"47":0.02,"48":0.01,"49":0.02,"50":0.03,"51":0.02,"52":0.005,"53":0.02,"54":0.025,"55":0.01,"56":0.005,"57":0.005,"58":0.005,"59":0.015,"61":0.01,"62":0.015,"63":0.01,"64":0.005,"66":0.005,"67":0.005,"69":0.005,"70":0.01,"71":0.005,"72":0.01,"76":0.01,"92":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1556668800000,"validUntil":1559260800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":3,"actual":4,"trainingCount":3970,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2019","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":1.3318250000000003,"mean":6.875,"median":6,"bias":2.875,"maeMean":2.875,"maeMedian":2,"low":1,"high":16,"coverage":true,"width":15,"pitLower":0.225,"pitUpper":0.3,"empiricalMass":0.075,"logScore":2.5902671654458267},"rollingETAS":{"crps":1.8503500000000006,"mean":8.18,"median":7,"bias":4.18,"maeMean":4.18,"maeMedian":3,"low":1,"high":20,"coverage":true,"width":19,"pitLower":0.265,"pitUpper":0.345,"empiricalMass":0.08,"logScore":2.5257286443082556},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":1.3987499999999997,"mean":6.98,"median":6,"bias":2.9800000000000004,"maeMean":2.9800000000000004,"maeMedian":2,"low":1,"high":16,"coverage":true,"width":15,"pitLower":0.24,"pitUpper":0.355,"empiricalMass":0.115,"logScore":2.162823150618887},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":3.079175,"mean":8.765,"median":9,"bias":4.765000000000001,"maeMean":4.765000000000001,"maeMedian":5,"low":4,"high":14,"coverage":true,"width":10,"pitLower":0.025,"pitUpper":0.06,"empiricalMass":0.035,"logScore":3.3524072174927233},"recentPoisson":{"crps":1.2889,"mean":6.34,"median":6,"bias":2.34,"maeMean":2.34,"maeMedian":2,"low":3,"high":11,"coverage":true,"width":8,"pitLower":0.14,"pitUpper":0.26,"empiricalMass":0.12,"logScore":2.120263536200091},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":1.0898249999999998,"mean":6.085,"median":5,"bias":2.085,"maeMean":2.085,"maeMedian":1,"low":1,"high":15,"coverage":true,"width":14,"pitLower":0.345,"pitUpper":0.465,"empiricalMass":0.12,"logScore":2.120263536200091}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.015,"1":0.05,"2":0.075,"3":0.085,"4":0.075,"5":0.165,"6":0.135,"7":0.065,"8":0.075,"9":0.03,"10":0.055,"11":0.03,"12":0.02,"13":0.035,"14":0.015,"15":0.015,"16":0.025,"17":0.01,"18":0.005,"20":0.005,"22":0.005,"26":0.005,"30":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.02,"1":0.04,"2":0.1,"3":0.105,"4":0.08,"5":0.08,"6":0.07,"7":0.06,"8":0.05,"9":0.04,"10":0.07,"11":0.045,"12":0.055,"13":0.025,"14":0.02,"15":0.04,"16":0.025,"17":0.005,"18":0.005,"19":0.01,"20":0.01,"22":0.01,"23":0.005,"26":0.01,"28":0.005,"30":0.005,"31":0.005,"48":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.01,"1":0.04,"2":0.09,"3":0.1,"4":0.115,"5":0.095,"6":0.075,"7":0.07,"8":0.1,"9":0.1,"10":0.045,"11":0.03,"12":0.025,"13":0.015,"14":0.015,"15":0.02,"16":0.02,"17":0.005,"20":0.01,"23":0.01,"26":0.005,"27":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"1":0.005,"2":0.01,"3":0.01,"4":0.035,"5":0.1,"6":0.105,"7":0.12,"8":0.09,"9":0.135,"10":0.11,"11":0.085,"12":0.06,"13":0.06,"14":0.03,"15":0.025,"16":0.005,"17":0.015},"recentPoisson":{"1":0.005,"2":0.025,"3":0.11,"4":0.12,"5":0.115,"6":0.165,"7":0.2,"8":0.08,"9":0.07,"10":0.04,"11":0.04,"12":0.01,"13":0.005,"14":0.01,"15":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.03,"1":0.105,"2":0.095,"3":0.115,"4":0.12,"5":0.08,"6":0.08,"7":0.075,"8":0.055,"9":0.05,"10":0.015,"11":0.045,"12":0.035,"13":0.015,"14":0.02,"15":0.015,"16":0.015,"17":0.015,"18":0.005,"20":0.005,"22":0.01}}},{"issuedAt":1556668800000,"validUntil":1559260800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":3970,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2019","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.24219999999999997,"mean":0.77,"median":0,"bias":0.77,"maeMean":0.77,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.545,"empiricalMass":0.545,"logScore":0.6069694843188929},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.34835000000000005,"mean":1.01,"median":1,"bias":1.01,"maeMean":1.01,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.475,"empiricalMass":0.475,"logScore":0.7444404749474959},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.29784999999999995,"mean":0.83,"median":0.5,"bias":0.83,"maeMean":0.83,"maeMedian":0.5,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.5,"empiricalMass":0.5,"logScore":0.6931471805599453},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.468175,"mean":0.995,"median":1,"bias":0.995,"maeMean":0.995,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.385,"empiricalMass":0.385,"logScore":0.9545119446943529},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.24935000000000002,"mean":0.65,"median":0,"bias":0.65,"maeMean":0.65,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.52,"empiricalMass":0.52,"logScore":0.6539264674066639},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.21952499999999997,"mean":0.585,"median":0,"bias":0.585,"maeMean":0.585,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.545,"empiricalMass":0.545,"logScore":0.6069694843188929}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.545,"1":0.295,"2":0.07,"3":0.055,"4":0.025,"6":0.005,"8":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.475,"1":0.29,"2":0.125,"3":0.05,"4":0.03,"5":0.005,"6":0.01,"7":0.01,"9":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.5,"1":0.295,"2":0.135,"3":0.045,"4":0.01,"5":0.01,"8":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.385,"1":0.325,"2":0.215,"3":0.06,"4":0.015},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.52,"1":0.345,"2":0.11,"3":0.015,"4":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.545,"1":0.345,"2":0.09,"3":0.02}}},{"issuedAt":1559260800000,"validUntil":1559347200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":2,"actual":1,"trainingCount":3994,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2019","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.285975,"mean":1.375,"median":1,"bias":0.375,"maeMean":0.375,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.385,"pitUpper":0.67,"empiricalMass":0.285,"logScore":1.2552660987134867},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.3158249999999999,"mean":1.135,"median":1,"bias":0.135,"maeMean":0.135,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.47,"pitUpper":0.725,"empiricalMass":0.255,"logScore":1.3664917338237108},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.3212250000000001,"mean":1.375,"median":1,"bias":0.375,"maeMean":0.375,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.405,"pitUpper":0.665,"empiricalMass":0.26,"logScore":1.3470736479666092},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.5029250000000001,"mean":2.055,"median":2,"bias":1.0550000000000002,"maeMean":1.0550000000000002,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.085,"pitUpper":0.405,"empiricalMass":0.32,"logScore":1.1394342831883648},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.21737499999999998,"mean":1.225,"median":1,"bias":0.2250000000000001,"maeMean":0.2250000000000001,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.305,"pitUpper":0.685,"empiricalMass":0.38,"logScore":0.9675840262617056},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.4134500000000001,"mean":1.26,"median":0,"bias":0.26,"maeMean":0.26,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.53,"pitUpper":0.735,"empiricalMass":0.205,"logScore":1.584745299843729}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.385,"1":0.285,"2":0.195,"3":0.06,"4":0.025,"5":0.01,"6":0.025,"7":0.005,"9":0.005,"28":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.47,"1":0.255,"2":0.16,"3":0.06,"4":0.025,"6":0.01,"7":0.005,"10":0.01,"17":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.405,"1":0.26,"2":0.15,"3":0.105,"4":0.03,"5":0.025,"7":0.01,"8":0.005,"9":0.005,"20":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.085,"1":0.32,"2":0.245,"3":0.22,"4":0.085,"5":0.03,"6":0.01,"7":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.305,"1":0.38,"2":0.165,"3":0.1,"4":0.04,"5":0.005,"6":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.53,"1":0.205,"2":0.075,"3":0.06,"4":0.055,"5":0.03,"6":0.015,"7":0.01,"8":0.005,"9":0.005,"10":0.005,"12":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1559260800000,"validUntil":1559347200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":3,"actual":0,"trainingCount":3994,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2019","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.01999999999999999,"mean":0.18,"median":0,"bias":0.18,"maeMean":0.18,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.86,"empiricalMass":0.86,"logScore":0.15082288973458366},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.021450000000000025,"mean":0.17,"median":0,"bias":0.17,"maeMean":0.17,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.855,"empiricalMass":0.855,"logScore":0.15665381004537685},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.021474999999999994,"mean":0.175,"median":0,"bias":0.175,"maeMean":0.175,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.855,"empiricalMass":0.855,"logScore":0.15665381004537685},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.08825000000000002,"mean":0.33,"median":0,"bias":0.33,"maeMean":0.33,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.705,"empiricalMass":0.705,"logScore":0.34955747616986843},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.02915000000000001,"mean":0.19,"median":0,"bias":0.19,"maeMean":0.19,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.83,"empiricalMass":0.83,"logScore":0.18632957819149348},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.010000000000000009,"mean":0.14,"median":0,"bias":0.14,"maeMean":0.14,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.905,"empiricalMass":0.905,"logScore":0.0998203352822109}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.86,"1":0.125,"2":0.005,"3":0.005,"6":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.855,"1":0.125,"2":0.015,"3":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.855,"1":0.125,"2":0.015,"4":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.705,"1":0.26,"2":0.035},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.83,"1":0.155,"2":0.01,"3":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.905,"1":0.065,"2":0.025,"5":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1559260800000,"validUntil":1559347200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":3994,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2019","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.0002249999999999995,"mean":0.015,"median":0,"bias":0.015,"maeMean":0.015,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.985,"empiricalMass":0.985,"logScore":0.015113637810048184},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.0000999999999999994,"mean":0.01,"median":0,"bias":0.01,"maeMean":0.01,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.99,"empiricalMass":0.99,"logScore":0.01005033585350145},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.00040000000000000105,"mean":0.02,"median":0,"bias":0.02,"maeMean":0.02,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.98,"empiricalMass":0.98,"logScore":0.020202707317519466},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.0016000000000000042,"mean":0.04,"median":0,"bias":0.04,"maeMean":0.04,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.96,"empiricalMass":0.96,"logScore":0.040821994520255166},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.00040000000000000105,"mean":0.02,"median":0,"bias":0.02,"maeMean":0.02,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.98,"empiricalMass":0.98,"logScore":0.020202707317519466},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.0000999999999999994,"mean":0.01,"median":0,"bias":0.01,"maeMean":0.01,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.99,"empiricalMass":0.99,"logScore":0.01005033585350145}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.985,"1":0.015},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.99,"1":0.01},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.98,"1":0.02},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.96,"1":0.04},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.98,"1":0.02},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.99,"1":0.01}}},{"issuedAt":1559260800000,"validUntil":1559865600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":2,"actual":8,"trainingCount":3994,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2019","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":1.624225,"mean":11.335,"median":10,"bias":3.335000000000001,"maeMean":3.335000000000001,"maeMedian":2,"low":3,"high":26,"coverage":true,"width":23,"pitLower":0.365,"pitUpper":0.395,"empiricalMass":0.03,"logScore":3.506557897319982},"rollingETAS":{"crps":1.5816750000000006,"mean":11.555,"median":8,"bias":3.5549999999999997,"maeMean":3.5549999999999997,"maeMedian":0,"low":2,"high":30,"coverage":true,"width":28,"pitLower":0.45,"pitUpper":0.51,"empiricalMass":0.06,"logScore":2.8134107167600364},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":1.6228999999999996,"mean":12.07,"median":10,"bias":4.07,"maeMean":4.07,"maeMedian":2,"low":3,"high":25,"coverage":true,"width":22,"pitLower":0.275,"pitUpper":0.37,"empiricalMass":0.095,"logScore":2.353878387381596},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":4.74,"mean":14.69,"median":15,"bias":6.6899999999999995,"maeMean":6.6899999999999995,"maeMedian":7,"low":9,"high":20,"coverage":false,"width":11,"pitLower":0.015,"pitUpper":0.035,"empiricalMass":0.02,"logScore":3.912023005428146},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.6656249999999999,"mean":8.525,"median":8,"bias":0.5250000000000004,"maeMean":0.5250000000000004,"maeMedian":0,"low":4,"high":13,"coverage":true,"width":9,"pitLower":0.375,"pitUpper":0.54,"empiricalMass":0.165,"logScore":1.8018098050815563},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":1.2737499999999997,"mean":8.58,"median":8,"bias":0.5800000000000001,"maeMean":0.5800000000000001,"maeMedian":0,"low":1,"high":20,"coverage":true,"width":19,"pitLower":0.48,"pitUpper":0.56,"empiricalMass":0.08,"logScore":2.5257286443082556}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.005,"1":0.015,"2":0.015,"3":0.05,"4":0.07,"5":0.07,"6":0.08,"7":0.06,"8":0.03,"9":0.1,"10":0.075,"11":0.055,"12":0.065,"13":0.045,"14":0.055,"15":0.02,"16":0.015,"17":0.03,"18":0.025,"19":0.025,"20":0.005,"21":0.015,"23":0.005,"25":0.01,"26":0.02,"28":0.01,"31":0.005,"37":0.005,"38":0.005,"49":0.005,"53":0.005,"77":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.005,"1":0.01,"2":0.04,"3":0.035,"4":0.07,"5":0.085,"6":0.095,"7":0.11,"8":0.06,"9":0.07,"10":0.035,"11":0.035,"12":0.04,"13":0.025,"14":0.05,"15":0.03,"16":0.02,"17":0.025,"18":0.005,"19":0.02,"20":0.01,"21":0.015,"22":0.01,"25":0.01,"26":0.015,"27":0.02,"30":0.01,"32":0.005,"38":0.005,"40":0.005,"41":0.005,"43":0.005,"50":0.005,"52":0.005,"57":0.005,"64":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"1":0.005,"2":0.015,"3":0.04,"4":0.04,"5":0.065,"6":0.05,"7":0.06,"8":0.095,"9":0.1,"10":0.09,"11":0.03,"12":0.08,"13":0.035,"14":0.055,"15":0.035,"16":0.025,"17":0.04,"18":0.02,"19":0.015,"20":0.015,"21":0.01,"22":0.01,"24":0.01,"25":0.015,"27":0.01,"28":0.005,"32":0.005,"45":0.01,"47":0.005,"55":0.005,"102":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"4":0.005,"5":0.005,"6":0.005,"8":0.02,"9":0.025,"10":0.065,"11":0.075,"12":0.075,"13":0.09,"14":0.125,"15":0.105,"16":0.095,"17":0.105,"18":0.08,"19":0.04,"20":0.04,"21":0.005,"22":0.01,"23":0.01,"24":0.015,"28":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"2":0.01,"3":0.005,"4":0.045,"5":0.095,"6":0.095,"7":0.125,"8":0.165,"9":0.11,"10":0.105,"11":0.07,"12":0.085,"13":0.055,"14":0.015,"15":0.015,"18":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.04,"1":0.04,"2":0.065,"3":0.04,"4":0.07,"5":0.085,"6":0.08,"7":0.06,"8":0.08,"9":0.075,"10":0.05,"11":0.05,"12":0.06,"13":0.05,"14":0.025,"15":0.01,"16":0.015,"17":0.025,"18":0.015,"19":0.01,"20":0.015,"21":0.015,"22":0.005,"25":0.005,"30":0.005,"32":0.005,"33":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1559260800000,"validUntil":1559865600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":3,"actual":2,"trainingCount":3994,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2019","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.710875,"mean":1.405,"median":1,"bias":-0.595,"maeMean":0.595,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.705,"pitUpper":0.815,"empiricalMass":0.11,"logScore":2.2072749131897207},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.6310749999999999,"mean":1.455,"median":1,"bias":-0.5449999999999999,"maeMean":0.5449999999999999,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.65,"pitUpper":0.805,"empiricalMass":0.155,"logScore":1.8643301620628905},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.5723999999999999,"mean":1.49,"median":1,"bias":-0.51,"maeMean":0.51,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.63,"pitUpper":0.8,"empiricalMass":0.17,"logScore":1.7719568419318752},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.284875,"mean":1.785,"median":2,"bias":-0.21500000000000008,"maeMean":0.21500000000000008,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.45,"pitUpper":0.77,"empiricalMass":0.32,"logScore":1.1394342831883648},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.510275,"mean":1.335,"median":1,"bias":-0.665,"maeMean":0.665,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.655,"pitUpper":0.86,"empiricalMass":0.205,"logScore":1.584745299843729},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.795725,"mean":1.435,"median":0,"bias":-0.565,"maeMean":0.565,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":6,"coverage":true,"width":6,"pitLower":0.67,"pitUpper":0.78,"empiricalMass":0.11,"logScore":2.2072749131897207}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.4,"1":0.305,"2":0.11,"3":0.075,"4":0.06,"5":0.01,"7":0.005,"8":0.02,"10":0.005,"11":0.005,"13":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.38,"1":0.27,"2":0.155,"3":0.06,"4":0.06,"5":0.035,"6":0.015,"7":0.02,"10":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.35,"1":0.28,"2":0.17,"3":0.11,"4":0.04,"5":0.02,"6":0.01,"8":0.005,"10":0.005,"12":0.005,"14":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.135,"1":0.315,"2":0.32,"3":0.13,"4":0.065,"5":0.03,"6":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.24,"1":0.415,"2":0.205,"3":0.08,"4":0.04,"5":0.015,"7":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.515,"1":0.155,"2":0.11,"3":0.08,"4":0.05,"5":0.035,"6":0.015,"7":0.025,"9":0.005,"13":0.005,"14":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1559260800000,"validUntil":1559865600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":4,"actual":1,"trainingCount":3994,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2019","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.8193,"mean":0.12,"median":0,"bias":-0.88,"maeMean":0.88,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0.905,"pitUpper":0.985,"empiricalMass":0.08,"logScore":2.5257286443082556},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.69785,"mean":0.19,"median":0,"bias":-0.81,"maeMean":0.81,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0.835,"pitUpper":0.975,"empiricalMass":0.14,"logScore":1.9661128563728327},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.7930250000000001,"mean":0.145,"median":0,"bias":-0.855,"maeMean":0.855,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0.89,"pitUpper":0.97,"empiricalMass":0.08,"logScore":2.5257286443082556},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.5485,"mean":0.29,"median":0,"bias":-0.71,"maeMean":0.71,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0.74,"pitUpper":0.97,"empiricalMass":0.23,"logScore":1.4696759700589417},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.801025,"mean":0.105,"median":0,"bias":-0.895,"maeMean":0.895,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0.895,"pitUpper":1,"empiricalMass":0.105,"logScore":2.2537949288246137},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.865575,"mean":0.105,"median":0,"bias":-0.895,"maeMean":0.895,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0.93,"pitUpper":0.975,"empiricalMass":0.045,"logScore":3.101092789211817}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.905,"1":0.08,"2":0.01,"4":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.835,"1":0.14,"2":0.025},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.89,"1":0.08,"2":0.025,"3":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.74,"1":0.23,"2":0.03},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.895,"1":0.105},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.93,"1":0.045,"2":0.02,"4":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1559260800000,"validUntil":1561852800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":2,"actual":22,"trainingCount":3994,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2019","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":23.216500000000003,"mean":57.6,"median":55,"bias":35.6,"maeMean":35.6,"maeMedian":33,"low":25,"high":98,"coverage":false,"width":73,"pitLower":0.015,"pitUpper":0.015,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"rollingETAS":{"crps":24.8513,"mean":66.48,"median":56,"bias":44.480000000000004,"maeMean":44.480000000000004,"maeMedian":34,"low":28,"high":157,"coverage":false,"width":129,"pitLower":0.005,"pitUpper":0.005,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":21.795099999999998,"mean":56.24,"median":52,"bias":34.24,"maeMean":34.24,"maeMedian":30,"low":28,"high":105,"coverage":false,"width":77,"pitLower":0.01,"pitUpper":0.015,"empiricalMass":0.005,"logScore":5.298317366548036},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":34.828775,"mean":61.365,"median":61,"bias":39.365,"maeMean":39.365,"maeMedian":39,"low":48,"high":76,"coverage":false,"width":28,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentPoisson":{"crps":11.319725,"mean":36.805,"median":37,"bias":14.805,"maeMean":14.805,"maeMedian":15,"low":25,"high":46,"coverage":false,"width":21,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":8.665,"mean":38.05,"median":35,"bias":16.049999999999997,"maeMean":16.049999999999997,"maeMedian":13,"low":15,"high":68,"coverage":true,"width":53,"pitLower":0.125,"pitUpper":0.135,"empiricalMass":0.01,"logScore":4.605170185988091}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"18":0.005,"20":0.005,"21":0.005,"23":0.005,"24":0.01,"25":0.02,"26":0.01,"28":0.005,"29":0.005,"30":0.02,"31":0.025,"32":0.01,"33":0.015,"34":0.01,"35":0.005,"36":0.015,"37":0.03,"38":0.015,"39":0.005,"40":0.025,"41":0.025,"42":0.015,"43":0.01,"44":0.02,"45":0.015,"46":0.015,"47":0.03,"48":0.015,"49":0.02,"50":0.02,"51":0.005,"52":0.01,"53":0.01,"54":0.03,"55":0.025,"56":0.02,"57":0.015,"58":0.015,"59":0.015,"60":0.02,"61":0.025,"62":0.01,"63":0.015,"64":0.01,"65":0.02,"66":0.015,"67":0.015,"68":0.03,"69":0.005,"70":0.005,"71":0.01,"72":0.02,"73":0.005,"74":0.015,"75":0.015,"77":0.015,"78":0.02,"80":0.005,"81":0.005,"82":0.025,"84":0.015,"85":0.01,"87":0.015,"89":0.005,"90":0.005,"91":0.005,"96":0.005,"98":0.01,"99":0.01,"100":0.005,"101":0.005,"103":0.005,"104":0.005,"108":0.005,"134":0.005,"135":0.005,"179":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"16":0.005,"23":0.01,"24":0.01,"25":0.01,"27":0.01,"28":0.015,"29":0.025,"30":0.005,"31":0.01,"32":0.01,"33":0.015,"34":0.015,"35":0.02,"36":0.02,"37":0.005,"38":0.01,"39":0.01,"40":0.02,"41":0.015,"42":0.015,"43":0.035,"44":0.03,"45":0.015,"46":0.01,"47":0.02,"48":0.01,"49":0.01,"50":0.01,"51":0.015,"52":0.02,"53":0.01,"54":0.02,"55":0.025,"56":0.02,"57":0.02,"58":0.02,"59":0.035,"60":0.02,"61":0.025,"62":0.02,"63":0.02,"64":0.015,"65":0.005,"66":0.02,"67":0.015,"68":0.01,"70":0.005,"72":0.01,"73":0.005,"74":0.005,"75":0.005,"76":0.005,"77":0.005,"78":0.005,"79":0.015,"80":0.005,"81":0.005,"82":0.02,"83":0.005,"84":0.005,"86":0.005,"87":0.005,"88":0.005,"90":0.005,"91":0.01,"92":0.005,"101":0.005,"102":0.005,"103":0.005,"109":0.005,"111":0.005,"117":0.005,"118":0.005,"119":0.005,"120":0.005,"134":0.005,"140":0.01,"143":0.005,"146":0.005,"150":0.005,"156":0.005,"157":0.005,"160":0.005,"161":0.01,"174":0.005,"187":0.005,"189":0.005,"198":0.005,"217":0.005,"273":0.005,"309":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"19":0.005,"20":0.005,"22":0.005,"23":0.005,"24":0.005,"25":0.005,"26":0.005,"27":0.005,"28":0.01,"29":0.02,"30":0.01,"31":0.015,"32":0.015,"33":0.015,"34":0.02,"35":0.02,"36":0.02,"37":0.025,"38":0.01,"39":0.02,"40":0.015,"41":0.03,"42":0.02,"43":0.01,"44":0.035,"45":0.02,"46":0.03,"47":0.015,"48":0.02,"49":0.015,"50":0.02,"51":0.01,"52":0.025,"53":0.02,"54":0.03,"55":0.045,"56":0.02,"57":0.02,"58":0.005,"59":0.02,"60":0.03,"61":0.005,"62":0.015,"63":0.02,"64":0.01,"65":0.01,"66":0.015,"68":0.01,"69":0.015,"70":0.005,"71":0.015,"72":0.01,"73":0.015,"75":0.01,"78":0.005,"79":0.005,"80":0.005,"81":0.005,"82":0.005,"84":0.005,"87":0.005,"91":0.02,"92":0.005,"93":0.01,"96":0.005,"98":0.015,"102":0.005,"105":0.005,"106":0.005,"108":0.005,"110":0.005,"111":0.005,"113":0.005,"114":0.005,"120":0.005,"121":0.005,"139":0.005,"196":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"40":0.005,"41":0.005,"44":0.01,"45":0.005,"46":0.005,"47":0.015,"48":0.005,"49":0.005,"50":0.03,"51":0.02,"52":0.03,"53":0.015,"54":0.04,"55":0.03,"56":0.065,"57":0.04,"58":0.055,"59":0.035,"60":0.055,"61":0.04,"62":0.035,"63":0.045,"64":0.095,"65":0.03,"66":0.05,"67":0.04,"68":0.035,"69":0.015,"70":0.015,"71":0.03,"73":0.02,"74":0.01,"75":0.015,"76":0.015,"77":0.01,"79":0.005,"80":0.01,"81":0.01,"85":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"23":0.015,"24":0.02,"25":0.015,"26":0.015,"27":0.01,"28":0.035,"29":0.025,"30":0.01,"31":0.04,"32":0.04,"33":0.05,"34":0.08,"35":0.065,"36":0.055,"37":0.07,"38":0.05,"39":0.075,"40":0.045,"41":0.035,"42":0.065,"43":0.045,"44":0.045,"45":0.025,"46":0.02,"47":0.02,"48":0.005,"49":0.01,"51":0.005,"52":0.005,"54":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"7":0.01,"13":0.015,"14":0.005,"15":0.02,"16":0.01,"17":0.015,"19":0.02,"20":0.01,"21":0.02,"22":0.01,"23":0.015,"24":0.02,"25":0.01,"26":0.035,"27":0.04,"28":0.025,"29":0.03,"30":0.04,"31":0.025,"32":0.025,"33":0.03,"34":0.05,"35":0.045,"36":0.025,"37":0.03,"38":0.025,"39":0.035,"40":0.025,"41":0.015,"42":0.025,"43":0.025,"44":0.015,"45":0.01,"46":0.015,"47":0.01,"48":0.005,"49":0.02,"50":0.01,"51":0.01,"52":0.015,"53":0.01,"54":0.005,"56":0.02,"57":0.005,"58":0.015,"59":0.005,"60":0.02,"62":0.005,"64":0.005,"65":0.005,"66":0.005,"67":0.005,"68":0.01,"69":0.005,"71":0.005,"76":0.005,"78":0.005,"85":0.005,"93":0.005,"100":0.005,"101":0.005,"105":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1559260800000,"validUntil":1561852800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":3,"actual":6,"trainingCount":3994,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2019","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.9002250000000003,"mean":7.125,"median":6,"bias":1.125,"maeMean":1.125,"maeMedian":0,"low":2,"high":15,"coverage":true,"width":13,"pitLower":0.405,"pitUpper":0.54,"empiricalMass":0.135,"logScore":2.0024805005437076},"rollingETAS":{"crps":1.199725,"mean":8.945,"median":7,"bias":2.9450000000000003,"maeMean":2.9450000000000003,"maeMedian":1,"low":2,"high":25,"coverage":true,"width":23,"pitLower":0.37,"pitUpper":0.485,"empiricalMass":0.115,"logScore":2.162823150618887},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.9399250000000001,"mean":6.895,"median":6,"bias":0.8949999999999996,"maeMean":0.8949999999999996,"maeMedian":0,"low":1,"high":16,"coverage":true,"width":15,"pitLower":0.475,"pitUpper":0.6,"empiricalMass":0.125,"logScore":2.0794415416798357},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":1.285975,"mean":8.165,"median":8,"bias":2.164999999999999,"maeMean":2.164999999999999,"maeMedian":2,"low":3,"high":12,"coverage":true,"width":9,"pitLower":0.19,"pitUpper":0.275,"empiricalMass":0.085,"logScore":2.4651040224918206},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.5414749999999999,"mean":5.625,"median":6,"bias":-0.375,"maeMean":0.375,"maeMedian":0,"low":2,"high":9,"coverage":true,"width":7,"pitLower":0.49,"pitUpper":0.67,"empiricalMass":0.18,"logScore":1.7147984280919266},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":1.1216,"mean":5.31,"median":4,"bias":-0.6900000000000004,"maeMean":0.6900000000000004,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":12,"coverage":true,"width":12,"pitLower":0.63,"pitUpper":0.7,"empiricalMass":0.07,"logScore":2.659260036932778}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.01,"1":0.035,"2":0.065,"3":0.08,"4":0.09,"5":0.125,"6":0.135,"7":0.06,"8":0.09,"9":0.08,"10":0.035,"11":0.055,"12":0.02,"13":0.04,"14":0.02,"15":0.01,"16":0.015,"17":0.015,"18":0.005,"20":0.005,"22":0.005,"25":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.02,"1":0.02,"2":0.05,"3":0.055,"4":0.115,"5":0.11,"6":0.115,"7":0.095,"8":0.08,"9":0.045,"10":0.03,"11":0.035,"12":0.025,"13":0.02,"14":0.025,"15":0.035,"16":0.01,"17":0.015,"19":0.005,"20":0.005,"22":0.02,"23":0.005,"25":0.025,"26":0.005,"28":0.005,"29":0.005,"30":0.01,"32":0.005,"46":0.005,"47":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.01,"1":0.05,"2":0.05,"3":0.105,"4":0.155,"5":0.105,"6":0.125,"7":0.05,"8":0.08,"9":0.04,"10":0.05,"11":0.01,"12":0.03,"13":0.035,"14":0.03,"15":0.015,"16":0.01,"17":0.005,"18":0.01,"19":0.025,"20":0.005,"23":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"2":0.02,"3":0.035,"4":0.025,"5":0.11,"6":0.085,"7":0.135,"8":0.135,"9":0.145,"10":0.1,"11":0.085,"12":0.075,"13":0.02,"14":0.025,"17":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.005,"1":0.01,"2":0.055,"3":0.12,"4":0.125,"5":0.175,"6":0.18,"7":0.135,"8":0.085,"9":0.075,"10":0.015,"11":0.005,"12":0.01,"13":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.06,"1":0.09,"2":0.115,"3":0.13,"4":0.125,"5":0.11,"6":0.07,"7":0.07,"8":0.065,"9":0.045,"10":0.045,"11":0.02,"12":0.015,"14":0.005,"15":0.01,"18":0.005,"20":0.005,"24":0.005,"30":0.005,"37":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1559260800000,"validUntil":1561852800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":4,"actual":1,"trainingCount":3994,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2019","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.254175,"mean":0.805,"median":1,"bias":-0.19499999999999995,"maeMean":0.19499999999999995,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.47,"pitUpper":0.83,"empiricalMass":0.36,"logScore":1.0216512475319814},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.3175499999999999,"mean":1.29,"median":1,"bias":0.29000000000000004,"maeMean":0.29000000000000004,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.435,"pitUpper":0.715,"empiricalMass":0.28,"logScore":1.2729656758128873},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.345475,"mean":0.805,"median":0,"bias":-0.19499999999999995,"maeMean":0.19499999999999995,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.54,"pitUpper":0.79,"empiricalMass":0.25,"logScore":1.3862943611198906},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.19857499999999995,"mean":1.035,"median":1,"bias":0.03499999999999992,"maeMean":0.03499999999999992,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.335,"pitUpper":0.715,"empiricalMass":0.38,"logScore":0.9675840262617056},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.38244999999999996,"mean":0.47,"median":0,"bias":-0.53,"maeMean":0.53,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.615,"pitUpper":0.94,"empiricalMass":0.325,"logScore":1.1239300966523995},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.44895,"mean":0.44,"median":0,"bias":-0.56,"maeMean":0.56,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.665,"pitUpper":0.92,"empiricalMass":0.255,"logScore":1.3664917338237108}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.47,"1":0.36,"2":0.11,"3":0.035,"4":0.015,"5":0.005,"7":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.435,"1":0.28,"2":0.115,"3":0.07,"4":0.035,"5":0.015,"6":0.015,"7":0.02,"8":0.01,"9":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.54,"1":0.25,"2":0.115,"3":0.07,"4":0.015,"5":0.005,"6":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.335,"1":0.38,"2":0.215,"3":0.055,"4":0.015},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.615,"1":0.325,"2":0.035,"3":0.025},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.665,"1":0.255,"2":0.065,"3":0.005,"4":0.01}}},{"issuedAt":1561852800000,"validUntil":1561939200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":2,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4016,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2019","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.5906750000000001,"mean":1.595,"median":1,"bias":1.595,"maeMean":1.595,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.37,"empiricalMass":0.37,"logScore":0.9942522733438669},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.42452500000000004,"mean":1.205,"median":1,"bias":1.205,"maeMean":1.205,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.44,"empiricalMass":0.44,"logScore":0.8209805520698302},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.31620000000000004,"mean":1.1,"median":0,"bias":1.1,"maeMean":1.1,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.505,"empiricalMass":0.505,"logScore":0.6831968497067772},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":1.3320499999999997,"mean":2.03,"median":2,"bias":2.03,"maeMean":2.03,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.11,"empiricalMass":0.11,"logScore":2.2072749131897207},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.6443750000000001,"mean":1.225,"median":1,"bias":1.225,"maeMean":1.225,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.28,"empiricalMass":0.28,"logScore":1.2729656758128873},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.32877500000000004,"mean":1.115,"median":0,"bias":1.115,"maeMean":1.115,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.545,"empiricalMass":0.545,"logScore":0.6069694843188929}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.37,"1":0.285,"2":0.135,"3":0.07,"4":0.055,"5":0.04,"6":0.025,"8":0.005,"9":0.005,"16":0.005,"19":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.44,"1":0.27,"2":0.16,"3":0.055,"4":0.035,"6":0.015,"7":0.01,"8":0.005,"10":0.005,"12":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.505,"1":0.28,"2":0.09,"3":0.055,"4":0.03,"5":0.005,"6":0.005,"7":0.02,"12":0.005,"20":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.11,"1":0.25,"2":0.305,"3":0.205,"4":0.095,"5":0.035},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.28,"1":0.39,"2":0.205,"3":0.09,"4":0.02,"5":0.015},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.545,"1":0.17,"2":0.125,"3":0.055,"4":0.055,"5":0.02,"6":0.01,"7":0.01,"8":0.01}}},{"issuedAt":1561852800000,"validUntil":1561939200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":3,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4016,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2019","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.024900000000000005,"mean":0.2,"median":0,"bias":0.2,"maeMean":0.2,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.845,"empiricalMass":0.845,"logScore":0.16841865162496325},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.016125,"mean":0.155,"median":0,"bias":0.155,"maeMean":0.155,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.875,"empiricalMass":0.875,"logScore":0.13353139262452263},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.010024999999999992,"mean":0.105,"median":0,"bias":0.105,"maeMean":0.105,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.9,"empiricalMass":0.9,"logScore":0.10536051565782628},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.06592499999999998,"mean":0.285,"median":0,"bias":0.285,"maeMean":0.285,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.745,"empiricalMass":0.745,"logScore":0.29437106060257756},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.021650000000000003,"mean":0.17,"median":0,"bias":0.17,"maeMean":0.17,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.855,"empiricalMass":0.855,"logScore":0.15665381004537685},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.013624999999999998,"mean":0.155,"median":0,"bias":0.155,"maeMean":0.155,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.885,"empiricalMass":0.885,"logScore":0.12216763397420753}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.845,"1":0.13,"2":0.01,"3":0.01,"4":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.875,"1":0.105,"2":0.01,"3":0.01},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.9,"1":0.095,"2":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.745,"1":0.225,"2":0.03},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.855,"1":0.12,"2":0.025},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.885,"1":0.1,"2":0.005,"3":0.005,"6":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1561852800000,"validUntil":1561939200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4016,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2019","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.0006250000000000006,"mean":0.025,"median":0,"bias":0.025,"maeMean":0.025,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.975,"empiricalMass":0.975,"logScore":0.025317807984289897},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.00042500000000000177,"mean":0.025,"median":0,"bias":0.025,"maeMean":0.025,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.98,"empiricalMass":0.98,"logScore":0.020202707317519466},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.0006250000000000006,"mean":0.025,"median":0,"bias":0.025,"maeMean":0.025,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.975,"empiricalMass":0.975,"logScore":0.025317807984289897},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.0012250000000000039,"mean":0.035,"median":0,"bias":0.035,"maeMean":0.035,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.965,"empiricalMass":0.965,"logScore":0.03562717764315116},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.00002499999999999985,"mean":0.005,"median":0,"bias":0.005,"maeMean":0.005,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.995,"empiricalMass":0.995,"logScore":0.005012541823544286},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.00040000000000000105,"mean":0.02,"median":0,"bias":0.02,"maeMean":0.02,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.98,"empiricalMass":0.98,"logScore":0.020202707317519466}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.975,"1":0.025},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.98,"1":0.015,"2":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.975,"1":0.025},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.965,"1":0.035},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.995,"1":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.98,"1":0.02}}},{"issuedAt":1561852800000,"validUntil":1562457600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":2,"actual":4,"trainingCount":4016,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2019","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":4.473675,"mean":13.025,"median":11,"bias":9.025,"maeMean":9.025,"maeMedian":7,"low":3,"high":27,"coverage":true,"width":24,"pitLower":0.07,"pitUpper":0.12,"empiricalMass":0.05,"logScore":2.995732273553991},"rollingETAS":{"crps":3.5886500000000003,"mean":12.65,"median":9,"bias":8.65,"maeMean":8.65,"maeMedian":5,"low":2,"high":36,"coverage":true,"width":34,"pitLower":0.09,"pitUpper":0.15,"empiricalMass":0.06,"logScore":2.8134107167600364},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":3.074025,"mean":10.995,"median":9,"bias":6.994999999999999,"maeMean":6.994999999999999,"maeMedian":5,"low":2,"high":23,"coverage":true,"width":21,"pitLower":0.085,"pitUpper":0.135,"empiricalMass":0.05,"logScore":2.995732273553991},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":7.816225000000001,"mean":13.765,"median":13,"bias":9.765,"maeMean":9.765,"maeMedian":9,"low":8,"high":20,"coverage":false,"width":12,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentPoisson":{"crps":2.71835,"mean":8.13,"median":8,"bias":4.130000000000001,"maeMean":4.130000000000001,"maeMedian":4,"low":3,"high":13,"coverage":true,"width":10,"pitLower":0.05,"pitUpper":0.09,"empiricalMass":0.04,"logScore":3.2188758248682006},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":2.1351999999999998,"mean":8.73,"median":7,"bias":4.73,"maeMean":4.73,"maeMedian":3,"low":1,"high":23,"coverage":true,"width":22,"pitLower":0.285,"pitUpper":0.335,"empiricalMass":0.05,"logScore":2.995732273553991}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.005,"1":0.01,"2":0.025,"3":0.03,"4":0.05,"5":0.035,"6":0.09,"7":0.07,"8":0.035,"9":0.065,"10":0.055,"11":0.06,"12":0.05,"13":0.055,"14":0.055,"15":0.045,"16":0.04,"17":0.04,"18":0.025,"19":0.025,"20":0.03,"21":0.005,"22":0.005,"23":0.015,"24":0.015,"26":0.01,"27":0.005,"28":0.01,"30":0.01,"32":0.005,"36":0.005,"42":0.005,"70":0.01,"129":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.015,"1":0.005,"2":0.03,"3":0.04,"4":0.06,"5":0.06,"6":0.085,"7":0.07,"8":0.085,"9":0.085,"10":0.035,"11":0.06,"12":0.035,"13":0.05,"14":0.055,"15":0.035,"16":0.02,"17":0.025,"18":0.015,"19":0.01,"20":0.005,"21":0.015,"22":0.015,"23":0.005,"25":0.005,"26":0.01,"28":0.005,"29":0.005,"34":0.005,"36":0.01,"37":0.005,"40":0.005,"44":0.005,"45":0.005,"46":0.005,"62":0.005,"84":0.005,"96":0.005,"114":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.005,"1":0.025,"2":0.02,"3":0.035,"4":0.05,"5":0.08,"6":0.125,"7":0.08,"8":0.07,"9":0.095,"10":0.065,"11":0.05,"12":0.05,"13":0.03,"14":0.02,"15":0.03,"16":0.025,"17":0.02,"18":0.02,"19":0.015,"20":0.02,"21":0.01,"22":0.005,"23":0.005,"25":0.005,"26":0.005,"34":0.005,"38":0.01,"43":0.005,"52":0.005,"65":0.005,"67":0.005,"84":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"5":0.01,"7":0.015,"8":0.045,"9":0.025,"10":0.055,"11":0.085,"12":0.145,"13":0.125,"14":0.13,"15":0.1,"16":0.06,"17":0.065,"18":0.04,"19":0.025,"20":0.025,"21":0.02,"22":0.015,"23":0.015},"recentPoisson":{"2":0.005,"3":0.045,"4":0.04,"5":0.07,"6":0.1,"7":0.165,"8":0.165,"9":0.12,"10":0.105,"11":0.08,"12":0.035,"13":0.035,"14":0.02,"15":0.005,"16":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.04,"1":0.05,"2":0.09,"3":0.105,"4":0.05,"5":0.06,"6":0.075,"7":0.065,"8":0.05,"9":0.05,"10":0.045,"11":0.04,"12":0.04,"13":0.03,"14":0.045,"15":0.01,"16":0.025,"17":0.015,"18":0.02,"19":0.01,"20":0.01,"21":0.01,"22":0.01,"23":0.01,"24":0.005,"25":0.005,"27":0.01,"28":0.005,"30":0.005,"31":0.005,"32":0.005,"41":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1561852800000,"validUntil":1562457600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":3,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4016,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2019","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.6982999999999999,"mean":1.67,"median":1,"bias":1.67,"maeMean":1.67,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.32,"empiricalMass":0.32,"logScore":1.1394342831883648},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.5860750000000001,"mean":1.705,"median":1,"bias":1.705,"maeMean":1.705,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":7,"coverage":true,"width":7,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.39,"empiricalMass":0.39,"logScore":0.941608539858445},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.464375,"mean":1.295,"median":1,"bias":1.295,"maeMean":1.295,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.41,"empiricalMass":0.41,"logScore":0.8915981192837836},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":1.237225,"mean":1.995,"median":2,"bias":1.995,"maeMean":1.995,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.115,"empiricalMass":0.115,"logScore":2.162823150618887},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.614975,"mean":1.225,"median":1,"bias":1.225,"maeMean":1.225,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.31,"empiricalMass":0.31,"logScore":1.171182981502945},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.39054999999999995,"mean":1.18,"median":1,"bias":1.18,"maeMean":1.18,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.48,"empiricalMass":0.48,"logScore":0.7339691750802004}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.32,"1":0.265,"2":0.215,"3":0.075,"4":0.065,"5":0.015,"6":0.015,"7":0.005,"8":0.01,"9":0.005,"15":0.005,"18":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.39,"1":0.25,"2":0.16,"3":0.04,"4":0.08,"5":0.015,"6":0.005,"7":0.01,"8":0.02,"9":0.01,"10":0.005,"12":0.005,"14":0.005,"18":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.41,"1":0.305,"2":0.13,"3":0.095,"4":0.01,"5":0.005,"6":0.01,"8":0.02,"9":0.005,"11":0.005,"12":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.115,"1":0.3,"2":0.285,"3":0.165,"4":0.08,"5":0.035,"6":0.01,"7":0.005,"8":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.31,"1":0.345,"2":0.22,"3":0.06,"4":0.065},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.48,"1":0.23,"2":0.14,"3":0.055,"4":0.04,"5":0.025,"6":0.01,"7":0.01,"9":0.01}}},{"issuedAt":1561852800000,"validUntil":1562457600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4016,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2019","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.030125000000000013,"mean":0.225,"median":0,"bias":0.225,"maeMean":0.225,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.83,"empiricalMass":0.83,"logScore":0.18632957819149348},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.02175000000000002,"mean":0.2,"median":0,"bias":0.2,"maeMean":0.2,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.86,"empiricalMass":0.86,"logScore":0.15082288973458366},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.01527500000000001,"mean":0.165,"median":0,"bias":0.165,"maeMean":0.165,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.885,"empiricalMass":0.885,"logScore":0.12216763397420753},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.04022499999999998,"mean":0.215,"median":0,"bias":0.215,"maeMean":0.215,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.8,"empiricalMass":0.8,"logScore":0.2231435513142097},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.015625,"mean":0.125,"median":0,"bias":0.125,"maeMean":0.125,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.875,"empiricalMass":0.875,"logScore":0.13353139262452263},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.006425,"mean":0.085,"median":0,"bias":0.085,"maeMean":0.085,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.92,"empiricalMass":0.92,"logScore":0.08338160893905101}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.83,"1":0.14,"2":0.015,"3":0.005,"4":0.01},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.86,"1":0.095,"2":0.035,"3":0.005,"4":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.885,"1":0.07,"2":0.04,"3":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.8,"1":0.185,"2":0.015},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.875,"1":0.125},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.92,"1":0.075,"2":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1561852800000,"validUntil":1564444800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":2,"actual":19,"trainingCount":4016,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2019","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":24.327325000000002,"mean":56.935,"median":51,"bias":37.935,"maeMean":37.935,"maeMedian":32,"low":27,"high":98,"coverage":false,"width":71,"pitLower":0.01,"pitUpper":0.015,"empiricalMass":0.005,"logScore":5.298317366548036},"rollingETAS":{"crps":23.914675,"mean":59.955,"median":51,"bias":40.955,"maeMean":40.955,"maeMedian":32,"low":25,"high":131,"coverage":false,"width":106,"pitLower":0.005,"pitUpper":0.005,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":24.5893,"mean":58.34,"median":51,"bias":39.34,"maeMean":39.34,"maeMedian":32,"low":27,"high":112,"coverage":false,"width":85,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":36.1472,"mean":59.8,"median":59,"bias":40.8,"maeMean":40.8,"maeMedian":40,"low":46,"high":73,"coverage":false,"width":27,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentPoisson":{"crps":13.852775000000001,"mean":36.325,"median":36,"bias":17.325000000000003,"maeMean":17.325000000000003,"maeMedian":17,"low":27,"high":46,"coverage":false,"width":19,"pitLower":0.005,"pitUpper":0.005,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":9.345900000000002,"mean":36.34,"median":35,"bias":17.340000000000003,"maeMean":17.340000000000003,"maeMedian":16,"low":14,"high":65,"coverage":true,"width":51,"pitLower":0.115,"pitUpper":0.155,"empiricalMass":0.04,"logScore":3.2188758248682006}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"17":0.005,"18":0.005,"19":0.005,"20":0.005,"23":0.01,"26":0.01,"27":0.01,"28":0.005,"29":0.015,"30":0.02,"31":0.005,"32":0.02,"33":0.03,"34":0.025,"35":0.02,"36":0.03,"37":0.025,"38":0.015,"39":0.03,"41":0.02,"42":0.015,"43":0.05,"45":0.025,"46":0.02,"47":0.01,"48":0.03,"49":0.015,"50":0.015,"51":0.02,"52":0.015,"53":0.025,"54":0.02,"55":0.02,"56":0.025,"57":0.005,"58":0.015,"59":0.01,"61":0.005,"62":0.005,"63":0.005,"65":0.01,"66":0.02,"67":0.035,"68":0.005,"69":0.01,"70":0.025,"71":0.005,"72":0.01,"73":0.01,"74":0.005,"75":0.005,"77":0.01,"78":0.02,"79":0.01,"82":0.005,"83":0.015,"84":0.005,"85":0.01,"86":0.005,"87":0.015,"88":0.005,"90":0.005,"91":0.015,"92":0.01,"94":0.005,"96":0.005,"98":0.01,"99":0.005,"100":0.01,"123":0.005,"126":0.005,"131":0.005,"148":0.005,"154":0.005,"158":0.005,"181":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"16":0.005,"20":0.005,"23":0.015,"24":0.015,"25":0.01,"26":0.005,"27":0.015,"28":0.02,"29":0.03,"30":0.025,"31":0.025,"32":0.01,"33":0.01,"34":0.02,"35":0.02,"36":0.02,"37":0.02,"38":0.02,"39":0.03,"40":0.03,"41":0.01,"43":0.02,"44":0.015,"45":0.02,"46":0.01,"47":0.01,"48":0.02,"49":0.01,"50":0.025,"51":0.02,"52":0.015,"53":0.015,"54":0.005,"55":0.01,"56":0.015,"57":0.015,"58":0.005,"59":0.03,"60":0.005,"61":0.01,"62":0.015,"63":0.03,"64":0.03,"68":0.01,"69":0.02,"70":0.01,"71":0.005,"73":0.015,"74":0.005,"75":0.005,"76":0.005,"77":0.015,"78":0.005,"80":0.005,"82":0.01,"83":0.005,"86":0.005,"91":0.005,"92":0.015,"93":0.005,"94":0.005,"95":0.005,"96":0.005,"100":0.005,"103":0.01,"104":0.005,"105":0.005,"106":0.01,"107":0.005,"110":0.005,"113":0.005,"114":0.005,"116":0.005,"119":0.005,"125":0.005,"129":0.005,"131":0.01,"135":0.01,"136":0.005,"155":0.005,"156":0.005,"159":0.005,"162":0.005,"166":0.005,"226":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"22":0.005,"23":0.005,"24":0.005,"25":0.005,"26":0.015,"27":0.02,"28":0.01,"29":0.01,"30":0.005,"31":0.02,"32":0.02,"33":0.04,"34":0.015,"35":0.035,"37":0.04,"38":0.015,"39":0.02,"40":0.02,"41":0.01,"42":0.015,"43":0.025,"44":0.02,"45":0.025,"46":0.01,"47":0.025,"48":0.02,"49":0.02,"50":0.01,"51":0.025,"52":0.015,"53":0.005,"54":0.025,"55":0.03,"56":0.015,"57":0.03,"58":0.005,"59":0.005,"60":0.015,"61":0.015,"62":0.015,"64":0.01,"65":0.01,"66":0.015,"67":0.015,"68":0.015,"69":0.005,"70":0.005,"71":0.015,"72":0.005,"73":0.005,"74":0.015,"75":0.005,"76":0.005,"77":0.005,"78":0.005,"79":0.005,"81":0.005,"82":0.015,"83":0.005,"85":0.005,"88":0.01,"90":0.005,"91":0.01,"94":0.005,"96":0.005,"98":0.005,"100":0.01,"103":0.01,"104":0.005,"106":0.005,"111":0.01,"112":0.015,"113":0.005,"114":0.005,"120":0.005,"122":0.005,"125":0.005,"139":0.005,"142":0.005,"151":0.005,"158":0.005,"222":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"39":0.005,"40":0.005,"42":0.005,"43":0.005,"44":0.01,"45":0.005,"46":0.02,"47":0.02,"48":0.005,"49":0.03,"50":0.01,"51":0.02,"52":0.03,"53":0.06,"54":0.035,"55":0.04,"56":0.045,"57":0.055,"58":0.055,"59":0.055,"60":0.035,"61":0.05,"62":0.045,"63":0.02,"64":0.04,"65":0.03,"66":0.06,"67":0.035,"68":0.035,"69":0.025,"70":0.015,"71":0.015,"72":0.025,"73":0.005,"74":0.005,"75":0.02,"76":0.005,"78":0.005,"81":0.005,"83":0.005,"89":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"18":0.005,"23":0.01,"24":0.01,"25":0.005,"26":0.01,"27":0.02,"28":0.03,"29":0.035,"30":0.065,"31":0.065,"32":0.03,"33":0.055,"34":0.06,"35":0.045,"36":0.06,"37":0.09,"38":0.055,"39":0.05,"40":0.035,"41":0.03,"42":0.07,"43":0.045,"44":0.025,"45":0.035,"46":0.015,"47":0.01,"48":0.01,"49":0.005,"50":0.005,"52":0.01,"53":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"4":0.005,"5":0.005,"7":0.005,"8":0.005,"9":0.005,"10":0.01,"12":0.01,"14":0.005,"15":0.01,"16":0.01,"17":0.02,"18":0.025,"19":0.04,"20":0.01,"21":0.01,"22":0.025,"23":0.015,"24":0.03,"25":0.035,"26":0.035,"27":0.045,"28":0.025,"29":0.015,"30":0.02,"31":0.025,"32":0.02,"33":0.01,"34":0.02,"35":0.035,"36":0.05,"37":0.01,"38":0.025,"39":0.01,"40":0.015,"41":0.02,"42":0.025,"43":0.035,"44":0.025,"45":0.015,"46":0.015,"47":0.005,"48":0.01,"49":0.015,"50":0.025,"51":0.015,"52":0.01,"54":0.015,"55":0.02,"56":0.005,"57":0.005,"58":0.01,"59":0.005,"60":0.005,"63":0.01,"64":0.005,"65":0.02,"67":0.01,"70":0.005,"78":0.005,"81":0.005,"85":0.005,"93":0.005,"99":0.005,"116":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1561852800000,"validUntil":1564444800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":3,"actual":3,"trainingCount":4016,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2019","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":1.9279500000000005,"mean":7.03,"median":6,"bias":4.03,"maeMean":4.03,"maeMedian":3,"low":1,"high":16,"coverage":true,"width":15,"pitLower":0.15,"pitUpper":0.245,"empiricalMass":0.095,"logScore":2.353878387381596},"rollingETAS":{"crps":2.280875,"mean":7.935,"median":7,"bias":4.935,"maeMean":4.935,"maeMedian":4,"low":1,"high":21,"coverage":true,"width":20,"pitLower":0.15,"pitUpper":0.24,"empiricalMass":0.09,"logScore":2.4079456086518722},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":2.1978,"mean":7.63,"median":7,"bias":4.63,"maeMean":4.63,"maeMedian":4,"low":2,"high":17,"coverage":true,"width":15,"pitLower":0.1,"pitUpper":0.22,"empiricalMass":0.12,"logScore":2.120263536200091},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":3.53965,"mean":7.9,"median":8,"bias":4.9,"maeMean":4.9,"maeMedian":5,"low":4,"high":12,"coverage":false,"width":8,"pitLower":0.015,"pitUpper":0.045,"empiricalMass":0.03,"logScore":3.506557897319982},"recentPoisson":{"crps":1.5542999999999998,"mean":5.67,"median":5.5,"bias":2.67,"maeMean":2.67,"maeMedian":2.5,"low":2,"high":9,"coverage":true,"width":7,"pitLower":0.075,"pitUpper":0.19,"empiricalMass":0.115,"logScore":2.162823150618887},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":1.1583,"mean":5.39,"median":5,"bias":2.3899999999999997,"maeMean":2.3899999999999997,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":13,"coverage":true,"width":13,"pitLower":0.245,"pitUpper":0.37,"empiricalMass":0.125,"logScore":2.0794415416798357}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.02,"1":0.035,"2":0.095,"3":0.095,"4":0.095,"5":0.14,"6":0.065,"7":0.08,"8":0.055,"9":0.055,"10":0.055,"11":0.04,"12":0.055,"13":0.03,"14":0.025,"15":0.005,"16":0.015,"17":0.005,"19":0.015,"22":0.01,"26":0.01},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.01,"1":0.07,"2":0.07,"3":0.09,"4":0.09,"5":0.085,"6":0.08,"7":0.08,"8":0.05,"9":0.07,"10":0.06,"11":0.025,"12":0.05,"13":0.02,"14":0.035,"15":0.015,"16":0.005,"17":0.02,"18":0.015,"20":0.005,"21":0.015,"23":0.005,"24":0.01,"25":0.01,"28":0.005,"30":0.01},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.015,"1":0.03,"2":0.055,"3":0.12,"4":0.13,"5":0.075,"6":0.065,"7":0.07,"8":0.06,"9":0.095,"10":0.055,"11":0.045,"12":0.03,"13":0.05,"14":0.02,"15":0.01,"16":0.02,"17":0.015,"19":0.01,"20":0.005,"21":0.005,"23":0.005,"26":0.005,"29":0.005,"35":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"2":0.015,"3":0.03,"4":0.03,"5":0.065,"6":0.14,"7":0.205,"8":0.125,"9":0.145,"10":0.075,"11":0.1,"12":0.02,"13":0.04,"14":0.005,"15":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"1":0.02,"2":0.055,"3":0.115,"4":0.14,"5":0.17,"6":0.14,"7":0.155,"8":0.07,"9":0.085,"10":0.02,"11":0.025,"12":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.065,"1":0.065,"2":0.115,"3":0.125,"4":0.115,"5":0.09,"6":0.12,"7":0.06,"8":0.055,"9":0.045,"10":0.035,"11":0.035,"12":0.02,"13":0.015,"14":0.005,"15":0.015,"16":0.01,"17":0.005,"23":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1561852800000,"validUntil":1564444800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4016,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2019","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.2712,"mean":0.85,"median":0,"bias":0.85,"maeMean":0.85,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.53,"empiricalMass":0.53,"logScore":0.6348782724359695},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.3851000000000001,"mean":1.1,"median":1,"bias":1.1,"maeMean":1.1,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.47,"empiricalMass":0.47,"logScore":0.7550225842780328},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.30300000000000005,"mean":0.9,"median":0.5,"bias":0.9,"maeMean":0.9,"maeMedian":0.5,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.5,"empiricalMass":0.5,"logScore":0.6931471805599453},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.49897499999999995,"mean":1.075,"median":1,"bias":1.075,"maeMean":1.075,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.375,"empiricalMass":0.375,"logScore":0.9808292530117262},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.20472500000000005,"mean":0.555,"median":0,"bias":0.555,"maeMean":0.555,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.56,"empiricalMass":0.56,"logScore":0.579818495252942},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.27117500000000005,"mean":0.665,"median":0.5,"bias":0.665,"maeMean":0.665,"maeMedian":0.5,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.5,"empiricalMass":0.5,"logScore":0.6931471805599453}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.53,"1":0.275,"2":0.1,"3":0.04,"4":0.045,"5":0.005,"10":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.47,"1":0.255,"2":0.13,"3":0.07,"4":0.045,"5":0.005,"6":0.005,"7":0.02},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.5,"1":0.305,"2":0.085,"3":0.06,"4":0.035,"5":0.01,"11":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.375,"1":0.31,"2":0.225,"3":0.06,"4":0.02,"5":0.005,"6":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.56,"1":0.335,"2":0.095,"3":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.5,"1":0.355,"2":0.135,"3":0.005,"5":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1564444800000,"validUntil":1564531200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":2,"actual":1,"trainingCount":4035,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2019","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.32019999999999993,"mean":1.32,"median":1,"bias":0.32000000000000006,"maeMean":0.32000000000000006,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.415,"pitUpper":0.685,"empiricalMass":0.27,"logScore":1.3093333199837622},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.292725,"mean":1.185,"median":1,"bias":0.18500000000000005,"maeMean":0.18500000000000005,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.45,"pitUpper":0.745,"empiricalMass":0.295,"logScore":1.2207799226423173},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.24287499999999995,"mean":1.145,"median":1,"bias":0.14500000000000002,"maeMean":0.14500000000000002,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.4,"pitUpper":0.75,"empiricalMass":0.35,"logScore":1.0498221244986778},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.535175,"mean":2.075,"median":2,"bias":1.0750000000000002,"maeMean":1.0750000000000002,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.125,"pitUpper":0.39,"empiricalMass":0.265,"logScore":1.3280254529959148},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.19704999999999995,"mean":1.18,"median":1,"bias":0.17999999999999994,"maeMean":0.17999999999999994,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.28,"pitUpper":0.67,"empiricalMass":0.39,"logScore":0.941608539858445},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.3787250000000001,"mean":1.215,"median":0.5,"bias":0.21500000000000008,"maeMean":0.21500000000000008,"maeMedian":0.5,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.5,"pitUpper":0.71,"empiricalMass":0.21,"logScore":1.5606477482646683}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.415,"1":0.27,"2":0.145,"3":0.05,"4":0.05,"5":0.055,"6":0.005,"8":0.005,"13":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.45,"1":0.295,"2":0.13,"3":0.06,"4":0.02,"5":0.01,"7":0.02,"10":0.005,"11":0.005,"15":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.4,"1":0.35,"2":0.135,"3":0.045,"4":0.035,"5":0.01,"6":0.015,"9":0.005,"13":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.125,"1":0.265,"2":0.28,"3":0.145,"4":0.12,"5":0.055,"6":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.28,"1":0.39,"2":0.235,"3":0.07,"4":0.015,"5":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.5,"1":0.21,"2":0.125,"3":0.055,"4":0.055,"5":0.025,"6":0.005,"8":0.015,"9":0.005,"10":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1564444800000,"validUntil":1564531200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":3,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4035,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2019","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.020250000000000018,"mean":0.17,"median":0,"bias":0.17,"maeMean":0.17,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.86,"empiricalMass":0.86,"logScore":0.15082288973458366},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.012874999999999998,"mean":0.155,"median":0,"bias":0.155,"maeMean":0.155,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.89,"empiricalMass":0.89,"logScore":0.11653381625595151},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.005824999999999997,"mean":0.105,"median":0,"bias":0.105,"maeMean":0.105,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.925,"empiricalMass":0.925,"logScore":0.0779615414697118},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.06822499999999998,"mean":0.285,"median":0,"bias":0.285,"maeMean":0.285,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.74,"empiricalMass":0.74,"logScore":0.3011050927839216},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.034324999999999994,"mean":0.195,"median":0,"bias":0.195,"maeMean":0.195,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.815,"empiricalMass":0.815,"logScore":0.2045671657412744},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.007450000000000012,"mean":0.1,"median":0,"bias":0.1,"maeMean":0.1,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.915,"empiricalMass":0.915,"logScore":0.0888312137066157}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.86,"1":0.115,"2":0.02,"3":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.89,"1":0.085,"2":0.015,"3":0.005,"5":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.925,"1":0.065,"2":0.005,"6":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.74,"1":0.235,"2":0.025},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.815,"1":0.175,"2":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.915,"1":0.07,"2":0.015}}},{"issuedAt":1564444800000,"validUntil":1564531200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4035,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2019","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.00002499999999999985,"mean":0.005,"median":0,"bias":0.005,"maeMean":0.005,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.995,"empiricalMass":0.995,"logScore":0.005012541823544286},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.0000999999999999994,"mean":0.01,"median":0,"bias":0.01,"maeMean":0.01,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.99,"empiricalMass":0.99,"logScore":0.01005033585350145},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.00002499999999999985,"mean":0.005,"median":0,"bias":0.005,"maeMean":0.005,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.995,"empiricalMass":0.995,"logScore":0.005012541823544286},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.0016000000000000042,"mean":0.04,"median":0,"bias":0.04,"maeMean":0.04,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.96,"empiricalMass":0.96,"logScore":0.040821994520255166},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.0006250000000000006,"mean":0.025,"median":0,"bias":0.025,"maeMean":0.025,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.975,"empiricalMass":0.975,"logScore":0.025317807984289897},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.0000999999999999994,"mean":0.01,"median":0,"bias":0.01,"maeMean":0.01,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.99,"empiricalMass":0.99,"logScore":0.01005033585350145}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.995,"1":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.99,"1":0.01},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.995,"1":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.96,"1":0.04},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.975,"1":0.025},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.99,"1":0.01}}},{"issuedAt":1564444800000,"validUntil":1565049600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":2,"actual":7,"trainingCount":4035,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2019","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":1.70805,"mean":10.4,"median":9,"bias":3.4000000000000004,"maeMean":3.4000000000000004,"maeMedian":2,"low":2,"high":24,"coverage":true,"width":22,"pitLower":0.34,"pitUpper":0.4,"empiricalMass":0.06,"logScore":2.8134107167600364},"rollingETAS":{"crps":1.5220500000000001,"mean":11.21,"median":8,"bias":4.210000000000001,"maeMean":4.210000000000001,"maeMedian":1,"low":2,"high":30,"coverage":true,"width":28,"pitLower":0.335,"pitUpper":0.41,"empiricalMass":0.075,"logScore":2.5902671654458267},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":2.0219249999999995,"mean":11.575,"median":10,"bias":4.574999999999999,"maeMean":4.574999999999999,"maeMedian":3,"low":2,"high":24,"coverage":true,"width":22,"pitLower":0.255,"pitUpper":0.34,"empiricalMass":0.085,"logScore":2.4651040224918206},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":5.138475,"mean":14.195,"median":14,"bias":7.195,"maeMean":7.195,"maeMedian":7,"low":9,"high":20,"coverage":false,"width":11,"pitLower":0.01,"pitUpper":0.015,"empiricalMass":0.005,"logScore":5.298317366548036},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.8215500000000002,"mean":8.08,"median":8,"bias":1.08,"maeMean":1.08,"maeMedian":1,"low":3,"high":13,"coverage":true,"width":10,"pitLower":0.315,"pitUpper":0.425,"empiricalMass":0.11,"logScore":2.2072749131897207},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":1.5882500000000004,"mean":7.33,"median":5,"bias":0.33000000000000007,"maeMean":0.33000000000000007,"maeMedian":2,"low":1,"high":23,"coverage":true,"width":22,"pitLower":0.57,"pitUpper":0.61,"empiricalMass":0.04,"logScore":3.2188758248682006}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.01,"1":0.025,"2":0.015,"3":0.055,"4":0.09,"5":0.08,"6":0.065,"7":0.06,"8":0.075,"9":0.04,"10":0.075,"11":0.055,"12":0.06,"13":0.055,"14":0.045,"15":0.025,"16":0.03,"17":0.015,"18":0.015,"19":0.005,"20":0.02,"21":0.015,"22":0.01,"23":0.005,"24":0.01,"25":0.005,"27":0.005,"28":0.005,"29":0.005,"30":0.005,"31":0.005,"38":0.005,"41":0.005,"44":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.005,"1":0.025,"2":0.05,"3":0.075,"4":0.05,"5":0.05,"6":0.08,"7":0.075,"8":0.115,"9":0.095,"10":0.05,"11":0.04,"12":0.03,"13":0.03,"14":0.025,"15":0.025,"16":0.03,"17":0.015,"18":0.005,"19":0.02,"20":0.015,"21":0.005,"22":0.005,"26":0.005,"27":0.005,"29":0.01,"30":0.02,"35":0.005,"40":0.01,"44":0.005,"47":0.01,"61":0.005,"65":0.005,"89":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.01,"1":0.01,"2":0.03,"3":0.06,"4":0.04,"5":0.035,"6":0.07,"7":0.085,"8":0.06,"9":0.08,"10":0.065,"11":0.065,"12":0.05,"13":0.045,"14":0.035,"15":0.04,"16":0.04,"17":0.015,"18":0.025,"19":0.015,"20":0.01,"21":0.015,"22":0.015,"23":0.02,"24":0.015,"25":0.01,"26":0.01,"29":0.005,"31":0.01,"32":0.005,"63":0.005,"80":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"6":0.01,"7":0.005,"8":0.025,"9":0.045,"10":0.06,"11":0.125,"12":0.095,"13":0.105,"14":0.085,"15":0.1,"16":0.065,"17":0.085,"18":0.075,"19":0.025,"20":0.045,"21":0.01,"22":0.025,"23":0.01,"25":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"1":0.005,"2":0.01,"3":0.04,"4":0.045,"5":0.095,"6":0.12,"7":0.11,"8":0.14,"9":0.15,"10":0.075,"11":0.07,"12":0.07,"13":0.035,"14":0.025,"15":0.005,"16":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.04,"1":0.125,"2":0.115,"3":0.08,"4":0.08,"5":0.075,"6":0.055,"7":0.04,"8":0.055,"9":0.045,"10":0.05,"11":0.045,"12":0.025,"13":0.02,"14":0.02,"15":0.015,"16":0.015,"17":0.015,"18":0.01,"19":0.01,"20":0.005,"21":0.005,"23":0.01,"24":0.01,"25":0.01,"26":0.005,"29":0.005,"30":0.005,"31":0.01}}},{"issuedAt":1564444800000,"validUntil":1565049600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":3,"actual":1,"trainingCount":4035,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2019","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.31847499999999995,"mean":1.325,"median":1,"bias":0.32499999999999996,"maeMean":0.32499999999999996,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.39,"pitUpper":0.655,"empiricalMass":0.265,"logScore":1.3280254529959148},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.29147500000000004,"mean":1.325,"median":1,"bias":0.32499999999999996,"maeMean":0.32499999999999996,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.42,"pitUpper":0.71,"empiricalMass":0.29,"logScore":1.2378743560016174},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.303925,"mean":1.445,"median":1,"bias":0.44500000000000006,"maeMean":0.44500000000000006,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.345,"pitUpper":0.645,"empiricalMass":0.3,"logScore":1.2039728043259361},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.36585,"mean":1.73,"median":2,"bias":0.73,"maeMean":0.73,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.165,"pitUpper":0.485,"empiricalMass":0.32,"logScore":1.1394342831883648},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.22654999999999992,"mean":1.32,"median":1,"bias":0.32000000000000006,"maeMean":0.32000000000000006,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.255,"pitUpper":0.63,"empiricalMass":0.375,"logScore":0.9808292530117262},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.37592499999999995,"mean":1.415,"median":1,"bias":0.41500000000000004,"maeMean":0.41500000000000004,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.46,"pitUpper":0.675,"empiricalMass":0.215,"logScore":1.5371172508544744}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.39,"1":0.265,"2":0.155,"3":0.095,"4":0.055,"5":0.02,"6":0.01,"8":0.005,"9":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.42,"1":0.29,"2":0.16,"3":0.04,"4":0.04,"5":0.015,"6":0.01,"8":0.01,"11":0.005,"12":0.005,"21":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.345,"1":0.3,"2":0.145,"3":0.105,"4":0.05,"5":0.04,"7":0.005,"9":0.005,"12":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.165,"1":0.32,"2":0.265,"3":0.15,"4":0.07,"5":0.03},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.255,"1":0.375,"2":0.22,"3":0.105,"4":0.035,"5":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.46,"1":0.215,"2":0.13,"3":0.09,"4":0.045,"5":0.01,"6":0.01,"7":0.01,"8":0.01,"9":0.005,"11":0.005,"13":0.01}}},{"issuedAt":1564444800000,"validUntil":1565049600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4035,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2019","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.01999999999999999,"mean":0.16,"median":0,"bias":0.16,"maeMean":0.16,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.86,"empiricalMass":0.86,"logScore":0.15082288973458366},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.01984999999999998,"mean":0.21,"median":0,"bias":0.21,"maeMean":0.21,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.87,"empiricalMass":0.87,"logScore":0.13926206733350766},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.016625,"mean":0.165,"median":0,"bias":0.165,"maeMean":0.165,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.875,"empiricalMass":0.875,"logScore":0.13353139262452263},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.030649999999999983,"mean":0.18,"median":0,"bias":0.18,"maeMean":0.18,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.825,"empiricalMass":0.825,"logScore":0.19237189264745613},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.021125000000000005,"mean":0.155,"median":0,"bias":0.155,"maeMean":0.155,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.855,"empiricalMass":0.855,"logScore":0.15665381004537685},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.013724999999999987,"mean":0.145,"median":0,"bias":0.145,"maeMean":0.145,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.885,"empiricalMass":0.885,"logScore":0.12216763397420753}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.86,"1":0.12,"2":0.02},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.87,"1":0.08,"2":0.03,"3":0.015,"5":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.875,"1":0.095,"2":0.02,"3":0.01},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.825,"1":0.17,"2":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.855,"1":0.135,"2":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.885,"1":0.095,"2":0.01,"3":0.01}}},{"issuedAt":1564444800000,"validUntil":1567036800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":2,"actual":21,"trainingCount":4035,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2019","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":19.694000000000003,"mean":56.02,"median":47,"bias":35.02,"maeMean":35.02,"maeMedian":26,"low":25,"high":121,"coverage":false,"width":96,"pitLower":0.025,"pitUpper":0.025,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"rollingETAS":{"crps":19.079775,"mean":55.805,"median":45,"bias":34.805,"maeMean":34.805,"maeMedian":24,"low":24,"high":120,"coverage":false,"width":96,"pitLower":0.025,"pitUpper":0.025,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":20.29585,"mean":54.7,"median":49,"bias":33.7,"maeMean":33.7,"maeMedian":28,"low":21,"high":99,"coverage":true,"width":78,"pitLower":0.025,"pitUpper":0.05,"empiricalMass":0.025,"logScore":3.6888794541139363},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":33.9435,"mean":59.62,"median":60,"bias":38.62,"maeMean":38.62,"maeMedian":39,"low":45,"high":73,"coverage":false,"width":28,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentPoisson":{"crps":10.00685,"mean":34.02,"median":34,"bias":13.020000000000003,"maeMean":13.020000000000003,"maeMedian":13,"low":26,"high":44,"coverage":false,"width":18,"pitLower":0.005,"pitUpper":0.005,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":6.009075000000001,"mean":33.095,"median":30.5,"bias":12.094999999999999,"maeMean":12.094999999999999,"maeMedian":9.5,"low":11,"high":69,"coverage":true,"width":58,"pitLower":0.255,"pitUpper":0.28,"empiricalMass":0.025,"logScore":3.6888794541139363}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"10":0.005,"13":0.005,"18":0.005,"19":0.005,"20":0.005,"22":0.005,"23":0.005,"25":0.025,"26":0.015,"28":0.025,"29":0.03,"30":0.025,"31":0.03,"32":0.01,"33":0.03,"34":0.015,"35":0.015,"36":0.025,"37":0.02,"38":0.025,"39":0.035,"40":0.015,"41":0.015,"42":0.02,"43":0.015,"44":0.02,"45":0.015,"46":0.02,"47":0.025,"48":0.01,"49":0.02,"50":0.01,"51":0.03,"52":0.02,"54":0.025,"55":0.015,"56":0.01,"57":0.015,"58":0.005,"59":0.005,"61":0.01,"62":0.005,"63":0.02,"64":0.01,"65":0.01,"66":0.005,"67":0.005,"68":0.01,"69":0.01,"70":0.005,"71":0.01,"72":0.005,"73":0.02,"77":0.015,"79":0.01,"80":0.005,"81":0.01,"82":0.005,"83":0.01,"84":0.015,"86":0.005,"87":0.015,"89":0.005,"90":0.005,"92":0.005,"93":0.005,"97":0.005,"98":0.005,"101":0.005,"103":0.005,"109":0.01,"110":0.005,"111":0.005,"121":0.005,"131":0.005,"133":0.015,"134":0.005,"137":0.005,"159":0.005,"163":0.005,"168":0.005,"186":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"8":0.005,"13":0.005,"14":0.005,"17":0.005,"19":0.005,"22":0.01,"23":0.01,"24":0.015,"25":0.01,"26":0.025,"27":0.02,"28":0.005,"29":0.005,"30":0.015,"31":0.015,"32":0.03,"33":0.035,"34":0.05,"35":0.015,"36":0.02,"37":0.015,"38":0.025,"39":0.03,"40":0.03,"41":0.01,"42":0.02,"43":0.035,"44":0.02,"45":0.015,"46":0.005,"47":0.01,"48":0.01,"49":0.005,"50":0.02,"51":0.015,"52":0.005,"53":0.01,"54":0.01,"55":0.02,"56":0.025,"57":0.01,"58":0.01,"59":0.02,"60":0.01,"61":0.005,"62":0.005,"63":0.005,"65":0.005,"66":0.015,"67":0.005,"68":0.015,"69":0.01,"70":0.005,"72":0.01,"73":0.015,"74":0.015,"75":0.005,"76":0.015,"77":0.015,"78":0.005,"79":0.01,"80":0.005,"81":0.005,"84":0.01,"85":0.005,"88":0.01,"91":0.005,"93":0.005,"94":0.005,"95":0.005,"97":0.005,"101":0.005,"102":0.005,"103":0.005,"108":0.005,"112":0.01,"120":0.01,"122":0.005,"126":0.005,"128":0.005,"141":0.005,"149":0.005,"155":0.005,"158":0.005,"174":0.005,"184":0.005,"203":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"16":0.01,"18":0.005,"19":0.005,"20":0.005,"21":0.025,"23":0.015,"24":0.005,"25":0.01,"26":0.025,"27":0.005,"28":0.01,"29":0.005,"30":0.015,"31":0.01,"32":0.01,"33":0.005,"34":0.035,"35":0.035,"36":0.005,"37":0.005,"38":0.01,"39":0.02,"40":0.03,"41":0.03,"42":0.005,"43":0.025,"44":0.01,"45":0.025,"46":0.025,"47":0.02,"48":0.03,"49":0.03,"50":0.04,"51":0.005,"52":0.005,"53":0.025,"54":0.02,"55":0.005,"56":0.01,"57":0.025,"58":0.005,"59":0.015,"60":0.015,"61":0.005,"62":0.01,"63":0.01,"64":0.01,"65":0.025,"66":0.03,"67":0.02,"68":0.02,"69":0.01,"70":0.01,"72":0.01,"73":0.005,"75":0.005,"76":0.01,"77":0.005,"79":0.01,"81":0.01,"82":0.005,"83":0.01,"84":0.01,"86":0.005,"87":0.005,"88":0.005,"90":0.005,"92":0.005,"93":0.005,"99":0.015,"102":0.005,"104":0.005,"106":0.005,"119":0.005,"127":0.005,"138":0.005,"144":0.005,"167":0.005,"170":0.005,"172":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"34":0.005,"36":0.005,"42":0.01,"43":0.01,"44":0.01,"45":0.015,"46":0.005,"47":0.005,"48":0.03,"50":0.03,"51":0.035,"52":0.05,"53":0.025,"54":0.03,"55":0.065,"56":0.02,"57":0.015,"58":0.05,"59":0.06,"60":0.055,"61":0.08,"62":0.04,"63":0.045,"64":0.025,"65":0.035,"66":0.03,"67":0.03,"68":0.045,"69":0.03,"70":0.03,"71":0.015,"72":0.01,"73":0.01,"74":0.015,"75":0.005,"76":0.005,"79":0.005,"80":0.01,"83":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"20":0.005,"23":0.02,"24":0.005,"25":0.01,"26":0.025,"27":0.03,"28":0.07,"29":0.045,"30":0.06,"31":0.085,"32":0.05,"33":0.06,"34":0.095,"35":0.06,"36":0.055,"37":0.045,"38":0.075,"39":0.07,"40":0.02,"41":0.04,"42":0.005,"43":0.015,"44":0.035,"45":0.01,"48":0.005,"54":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"3":0.005,"7":0.005,"8":0.01,"10":0.02,"11":0.02,"12":0.02,"13":0.02,"14":0.03,"15":0.025,"16":0.025,"17":0.035,"18":0.01,"19":0.02,"20":0.01,"21":0.025,"22":0.025,"23":0.02,"24":0.025,"25":0.035,"26":0.015,"27":0.04,"28":0.025,"29":0.01,"30":0.025,"31":0.03,"32":0.025,"33":0.015,"34":0.015,"35":0.01,"36":0.035,"37":0.01,"38":0.035,"39":0.02,"40":0.045,"41":0.025,"42":0.005,"43":0.025,"44":0.01,"45":0.015,"46":0.01,"47":0.01,"48":0.015,"49":0.01,"50":0.015,"52":0.015,"53":0.01,"57":0.005,"58":0.005,"59":0.005,"60":0.005,"62":0.005,"63":0.005,"65":0.005,"67":0.005,"69":0.005,"71":0.005,"72":0.005,"73":0.005,"78":0.005,"87":0.005,"89":0.005,"90":0.005,"93":0.005,"94":0.005,"98":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1564444800000,"validUntil":1567036800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":3,"actual":3,"trainingCount":4035,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2019","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":1.8282000000000003,"mean":6.91,"median":6,"bias":3.91,"maeMean":3.91,"maeMedian":3,"low":1,"high":17,"coverage":true,"width":16,"pitLower":0.195,"pitUpper":0.29,"empiricalMass":0.095,"logScore":2.353878387381596},"rollingETAS":{"crps":2.03145,"mean":7.55,"median":6,"bias":4.55,"maeMean":4.55,"maeMedian":3,"low":1,"high":20,"coverage":true,"width":19,"pitLower":0.14,"pitUpper":0.255,"empiricalMass":0.115,"logScore":2.162823150618887},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":1.7212500000000004,"mean":6.54,"median":6,"bias":3.54,"maeMean":3.54,"maeMedian":3,"low":1,"high":14,"coverage":true,"width":13,"pitLower":0.16,"pitUpper":0.255,"empiricalMass":0.095,"logScore":2.353878387381596},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":3.373775,"mean":7.765,"median":7,"bias":4.765,"maeMean":4.765,"maeMedian":4,"low":4,"high":12,"coverage":false,"width":8,"pitLower":0.01,"pitUpper":0.025,"empiricalMass":0.015,"logScore":4.199705077879927},"recentPoisson":{"crps":1.216175,"mean":5.325,"median":5,"bias":2.325,"maeMean":2.325,"maeMedian":2,"low":2,"high":10,"coverage":true,"width":8,"pitLower":0.1,"pitUpper":0.245,"empiricalMass":0.145,"logScore":1.9310215365615626},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":1.1304750000000001,"mean":5.175,"median":4,"bias":2.175,"maeMean":2.175,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":14,"coverage":true,"width":14,"pitLower":0.345,"pitUpper":0.455,"empiricalMass":0.11,"logScore":2.2072749131897207}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.04,"1":0.055,"2":0.1,"3":0.095,"4":0.11,"5":0.07,"6":0.07,"7":0.075,"8":0.075,"9":0.06,"10":0.05,"11":0.035,"12":0.035,"13":0.03,"14":0.01,"15":0.015,"16":0.015,"17":0.015,"18":0.01,"19":0.015,"20":0.005,"24":0.005,"25":0.005,"26":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.015,"1":0.055,"2":0.07,"3":0.115,"4":0.075,"5":0.1,"6":0.105,"7":0.1,"8":0.075,"9":0.035,"10":0.03,"11":0.035,"12":0.025,"13":0.03,"14":0.015,"15":0.025,"16":0.015,"17":0.01,"18":0.01,"19":0.005,"20":0.015,"21":0.005,"22":0.005,"23":0.005,"25":0.01,"28":0.005,"29":0.005,"31":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.015,"1":0.075,"2":0.07,"3":0.095,"4":0.12,"5":0.085,"6":0.115,"7":0.095,"8":0.085,"9":0.035,"10":0.06,"11":0.03,"12":0.035,"13":0.025,"14":0.015,"15":0.005,"16":0.005,"19":0.01,"20":0.01,"23":0.005,"24":0.01},"expandingPoisson":{"1":0.005,"2":0.005,"3":0.015,"4":0.055,"5":0.095,"6":0.155,"7":0.205,"8":0.095,"9":0.11,"10":0.13,"11":0.045,"12":0.045,"13":0.02,"14":0.005,"15":0.01,"16":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.005,"1":0.03,"2":0.065,"3":0.145,"4":0.18,"5":0.165,"6":0.135,"7":0.085,"8":0.055,"9":0.065,"10":0.04,"11":0.01,"12":0.015,"13":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.095,"1":0.145,"2":0.105,"3":0.11,"4":0.085,"5":0.075,"6":0.06,"7":0.06,"8":0.05,"9":0.05,"10":0.05,"11":0.01,"12":0.02,"13":0.02,"14":0.035,"16":0.005,"17":0.01,"19":0.005,"20":0.01}}},{"issuedAt":1564444800000,"validUntil":1567036800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4035,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2019","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.31372500000000003,"mean":0.935,"median":0.5,"bias":0.935,"maeMean":0.935,"maeMedian":0.5,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.5,"empiricalMass":0.5,"logScore":0.6931471805599453},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.308825,"mean":0.935,"median":0,"bias":0.935,"maeMean":0.935,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.515,"empiricalMass":0.515,"logScore":0.6635883783184009},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.31290000000000007,"mean":0.8,"median":1,"bias":0.8,"maeMean":0.8,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.48,"empiricalMass":0.48,"logScore":0.7339691750802004},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.5563,"mean":1.06,"median":1,"bias":1.06,"maeMean":1.06,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.315,"empiricalMass":0.315,"logScore":1.155182640156504},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.15005000000000002,"mean":0.51,"median":0,"bias":0.51,"maeMean":0.51,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.625,"empiricalMass":0.625,"logScore":0.4700036292457356},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.21960000000000002,"mean":0.62,"median":0,"bias":0.62,"maeMean":0.62,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.56,"empiricalMass":0.56,"logScore":0.579818495252942}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.5,"1":0.275,"2":0.135,"3":0.03,"4":0.03,"5":0.01,"6":0.01,"7":0.01},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.515,"1":0.24,"2":0.15,"3":0.035,"4":0.035,"5":0.01,"6":0.005,"7":0.01},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.48,"1":0.325,"2":0.13,"3":0.05,"4":0.01,"5":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.315,"1":0.4,"2":0.21,"3":0.06,"4":0.015},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.625,"1":0.285,"2":0.055,"3":0.025,"4":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.56,"1":0.28,"2":0.14,"3":0.02}}},{"issuedAt":1567036800000,"validUntil":1567123200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":2,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4056,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2019","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.39815,"mean":1.2,"median":1,"bias":1.2,"maeMean":1.2,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.47,"empiricalMass":0.47,"logScore":0.7550225842780328},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.6007250000000002,"mean":1.745,"median":1,"bias":1.745,"maeMean":1.745,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.39,"empiricalMass":0.39,"logScore":0.941608539858445},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.46815000000000007,"mean":1.29,"median":1,"bias":1.29,"maeMean":1.29,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.44,"empiricalMass":0.44,"logScore":0.8209805520698302},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":1.3161750000000003,"mean":2.095,"median":2,"bias":2.095,"maeMean":2.095,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.12,"empiricalMass":0.12,"logScore":2.120263536200091},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.44394999999999996,"mean":0.98,"median":1,"bias":0.98,"maeMean":0.98,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.4,"empiricalMass":0.4,"logScore":0.916290731874155},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.330325,"mean":1.115,"median":0,"bias":1.115,"maeMean":1.115,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.535,"empiricalMass":0.535,"logScore":0.6254885320861304}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.47,"1":0.25,"2":0.12,"3":0.07,"4":0.035,"5":0.025,"7":0.015,"8":0.005,"9":0.01},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.39,"1":0.21,"2":0.19,"3":0.1,"4":0.03,"5":0.04,"6":0.01,"8":0.015,"14":0.005,"25":0.005,"32":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.44,"1":0.225,"2":0.165,"3":0.075,"4":0.045,"5":0.015,"6":0.015,"7":0.005,"8":0.01,"10":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.12,"1":0.255,"2":0.285,"3":0.16,"4":0.125,"5":0.045,"6":0.005,"7":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.4,"1":0.325,"2":0.185,"3":0.075,"4":0.015},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.535,"1":0.195,"2":0.11,"3":0.05,"4":0.06,"5":0.025,"6":0.01,"7":0.005,"8":0.005,"10":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1567036800000,"validUntil":1567123200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":3,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4056,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2019","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.011475000000000013,"mean":0.135,"median":0,"bias":0.135,"maeMean":0.135,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.895,"empiricalMass":0.895,"logScore":0.11093156070728166},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.033775,"mean":0.235,"median":0,"bias":0.235,"maeMean":0.235,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.82,"empiricalMass":0.82,"logScore":0.19845093872383832},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.014499999999999999,"mean":0.13,"median":0,"bias":0.13,"maeMean":0.13,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.88,"empiricalMass":0.88,"logScore":0.12783337150988489},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.07225000000000001,"mean":0.31,"median":0,"bias":0.31,"maeMean":0.31,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.735,"empiricalMass":0.735,"logScore":0.3078847797693004},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.021125000000000005,"mean":0.155,"median":0,"bias":0.155,"maeMean":0.155,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.855,"empiricalMass":0.855,"logScore":0.15665381004537685},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.02955000000000002,"mean":0.2,"median":0,"bias":0.2,"maeMean":0.2,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.83,"empiricalMass":0.83,"logScore":0.18632957819149348}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.895,"1":0.085,"2":0.015,"4":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.82,"1":0.145,"2":0.025,"3":0.005,"5":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.88,"1":0.11,"2":0.01},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.735,"1":0.22,"2":0.045},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.855,"1":0.135,"2":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.83,"1":0.145,"2":0.02,"3":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1567036800000,"validUntil":1567123200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4056,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2019","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.0000999999999999994,"mean":0.01,"median":0,"bias":0.01,"maeMean":0.01,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.99,"empiricalMass":0.99,"logScore":0.01005033585350145},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.0001250000000000001,"mean":0.015,"median":0,"bias":0.015,"maeMean":0.015,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.99,"empiricalMass":0.99,"logScore":0.01005033585350145},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0,"mean":0,"median":0,"bias":0,"maeMean":0,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":1,"empiricalMass":1,"logScore":0},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.0012250000000000039,"mean":0.035,"median":0,"bias":0.035,"maeMean":0.035,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.965,"empiricalMass":0.965,"logScore":0.03562717764315116},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.0002249999999999995,"mean":0.015,"median":0,"bias":0.015,"maeMean":0.015,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.985,"empiricalMass":0.985,"logScore":0.015113637810048184},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.0000999999999999994,"mean":0.01,"median":0,"bias":0.01,"maeMean":0.01,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.99,"empiricalMass":0.99,"logScore":0.01005033585350145}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.99,"1":0.01},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.99,"1":0.005,"2":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":1},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.965,"1":0.035},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.985,"1":0.015},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.99,"1":0.01}}},{"issuedAt":1567036800000,"validUntil":1567641600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":2,"actual":2,"trainingCount":4056,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2019","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":4.140124999999999,"mean":9.615,"median":8,"bias":7.615,"maeMean":7.615,"maeMedian":6,"low":2,"high":25,"coverage":true,"width":23,"pitLower":0.02,"pitUpper":0.07,"empiricalMass":0.05,"logScore":2.995732273553991},"rollingETAS":{"crps":4.58345,"mean":11.61,"median":9,"bias":9.61,"maeMean":9.61,"maeMedian":7,"low":2,"high":28,"coverage":true,"width":26,"pitLower":0.04,"pitUpper":0.09,"empiricalMass":0.05,"logScore":2.995732273553991},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":4.722225,"mean":11.015,"median":8,"bias":9.015,"maeMean":9.015,"maeMedian":6,"low":3,"high":27,"coverage":false,"width":24,"pitLower":0.015,"pitUpper":0.025,"empiricalMass":0.01,"logScore":4.605170185988091},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":9.760575000000001,"mean":13.835,"median":14,"bias":11.835,"maeMean":11.835,"maeMedian":12,"low":8,"high":20,"coverage":false,"width":12,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentPoisson":{"crps":4.218875,"mean":7.755,"median":7,"bias":5.755,"maeMean":5.755,"maeMedian":5,"low":4,"high":12,"coverage":false,"width":8,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.01,"empiricalMass":0.01,"logScore":4.605170185988091},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":2.2933999999999997,"mean":6.85,"median":5,"bias":4.85,"maeMean":4.85,"maeMedian":3,"low":0,"high":18,"coverage":true,"width":18,"pitLower":0.145,"pitUpper":0.23,"empiricalMass":0.085,"logScore":2.4651040224918206}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.015,"1":0.005,"2":0.05,"3":0.055,"4":0.07,"5":0.09,"6":0.085,"7":0.125,"8":0.04,"9":0.115,"10":0.065,"11":0.025,"12":0.05,"13":0.02,"14":0.025,"15":0.015,"16":0.02,"17":0.015,"18":0.015,"19":0.01,"21":0.01,"22":0.01,"23":0.01,"24":0.005,"25":0.01,"26":0.01,"27":0.01,"28":0.005,"30":0.005,"31":0.005,"38":0.005,"57":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.025,"1":0.015,"2":0.05,"3":0.08,"4":0.09,"5":0.05,"6":0.065,"7":0.025,"8":0.065,"9":0.08,"10":0.05,"11":0.045,"12":0.06,"13":0.02,"14":0.03,"15":0.035,"16":0.03,"17":0.025,"18":0.005,"20":0.01,"21":0.015,"22":0.005,"23":0.025,"24":0.015,"26":0.01,"27":0.02,"28":0.005,"29":0.005,"30":0.005,"38":0.005,"39":0.005,"47":0.005,"48":0.005,"57":0.005,"59":0.005,"68":0.005,"70":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.005,"1":0.01,"2":0.01,"3":0.065,"4":0.085,"5":0.085,"6":0.095,"7":0.085,"8":0.065,"9":0.08,"10":0.05,"11":0.045,"12":0.065,"13":0.025,"14":0.025,"15":0.025,"16":0.02,"17":0.01,"18":0.015,"19":0.01,"20":0.015,"21":0.02,"22":0.01,"23":0.015,"24":0.005,"25":0.005,"27":0.005,"28":0.015,"32":0.005,"33":0.005,"36":0.005,"41":0.005,"59":0.005,"73":0.005,"78":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"6":0.015,"7":0.025,"8":0.015,"9":0.05,"10":0.07,"11":0.13,"12":0.095,"13":0.07,"14":0.12,"15":0.095,"16":0.085,"17":0.055,"18":0.065,"19":0.045,"20":0.02,"21":0.02,"22":0.01,"23":0.005,"24":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"2":0.01,"3":0.03,"4":0.06,"5":0.11,"6":0.17,"7":0.125,"8":0.12,"9":0.12,"10":0.07,"11":0.08,"12":0.06,"13":0.02,"14":0.015,"15":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.06,"1":0.085,"2":0.085,"3":0.07,"4":0.08,"5":0.135,"6":0.06,"7":0.08,"8":0.045,"9":0.055,"10":0.06,"11":0.035,"12":0.03,"13":0.025,"14":0.005,"15":0.005,"16":0.005,"17":0.02,"18":0.01,"20":0.005,"21":0.005,"23":0.02,"24":0.01,"28":0.005,"31":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1567036800000,"validUntil":1567641600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":3,"actual":1,"trainingCount":4056,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2019","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.3579,"mean":0.98,"median":0,"bias":-0.020000000000000018,"maeMean":0.020000000000000018,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.53,"pitUpper":0.78,"empiricalMass":0.25,"logScore":1.3862943611198906},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.3795250000000001,"mean":1.575,"median":1,"bias":0.575,"maeMean":0.575,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":6,"coverage":true,"width":6,"pitLower":0.42,"pitUpper":0.66,"empiricalMass":0.24,"logScore":1.4271163556401458},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.33657500000000007,"mean":1.375,"median":1,"bias":0.375,"maeMean":0.375,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.43,"pitUpper":0.67,"empiricalMass":0.24,"logScore":1.4271163556401458},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.49602499999999994,"mean":1.935,"median":2,"bias":0.935,"maeMean":0.935,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.165,"pitUpper":0.405,"empiricalMass":0.24,"logScore":1.4271163556401458},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.22265000000000001,"mean":1.23,"median":1,"bias":0.22999999999999998,"maeMean":0.22999999999999998,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.285,"pitUpper":0.645,"empiricalMass":0.36,"logScore":1.0216512475319814},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.3607250000000001,"mean":1.295,"median":1,"bias":0.29499999999999993,"maeMean":0.29499999999999993,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.46,"pitUpper":0.675,"empiricalMass":0.215,"logScore":1.5371172508544744}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.53,"1":0.25,"2":0.075,"3":0.075,"4":0.025,"5":0.02,"6":0.02,"7":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.42,"1":0.24,"2":0.13,"3":0.065,"4":0.04,"5":0.02,"6":0.035,"7":0.015,"8":0.015,"9":0.015,"10":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.43,"1":0.24,"2":0.155,"3":0.1,"4":0.015,"5":0.025,"6":0.02,"12":0.005,"15":0.005,"17":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.165,"1":0.24,"2":0.29,"3":0.165,"4":0.095,"5":0.035,"6":0.005,"7":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.285,"1":0.36,"2":0.235,"3":0.09,"4":0.02,"5":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.46,"1":0.215,"2":0.16,"3":0.07,"4":0.025,"5":0.035,"6":0.01,"7":0.01,"9":0.01,"11":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1567036800000,"validUntil":1567641600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4056,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2019","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.0068000000000000005,"mean":0.1,"median":0,"bias":0.1,"maeMean":0.1,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.92,"empiricalMass":0.92,"logScore":0.08338160893905101},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.031549999999999995,"mean":0.24,"median":0,"bias":0.24,"maeMean":0.24,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.835,"empiricalMass":0.835,"logScore":0.18032355413128162},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.017750000000000016,"mean":0.17,"median":0,"bias":0.17,"maeMean":0.17,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.87,"empiricalMass":0.87,"logScore":0.13926206733350766},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.0441,"mean":0.21,"median":0,"bias":0.21,"maeMean":0.21,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.79,"empiricalMass":0.79,"logScore":0.23572233352106983},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.01565000000000001,"mean":0.13,"median":0,"bias":0.13,"maeMean":0.13,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.875,"empiricalMass":0.875,"logScore":0.13353139262452263},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.012199999999999989,"mean":0.12,"median":0,"bias":0.12,"maeMean":0.12,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.89,"empiricalMass":0.89,"logScore":0.11653381625595151}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.92,"1":0.06,"2":0.02},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.835,"1":0.1,"2":0.055,"3":0.01},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.87,"1":0.105,"2":0.01,"3":0.015},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.79,"1":0.21},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.875,"1":0.12,"2":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.89,"1":0.1,"2":0.01}}},{"issuedAt":1567036800000,"validUntil":1569628800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":2,"actual":107,"trainingCount":4056,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2019","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":40.9046,"mean":55.67,"median":50,"bias":-51.33,"maeMean":51.33,"maeMedian":57,"low":25,"high":102,"coverage":false,"width":77,"pitLower":0.96,"pitUpper":0.965,"empiricalMass":0.005,"logScore":5.298317366548036},"rollingETAS":{"crps":32.907275,"mean":64.015,"median":53,"bias":-42.985,"maeMean":42.985,"maeMedian":54,"low":22,"high":133,"coverage":true,"width":111,"pitLower":0.87,"pitUpper":0.87,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":41.111999999999995,"mean":56.18,"median":50,"bias":-50.82,"maeMean":50.82,"maeMedian":57,"low":28,"high":111,"coverage":true,"width":83,"pitLower":0.945,"pitUpper":0.945,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":43.987675,"mean":58.775,"median":58,"bias":-48.225,"maeMean":48.225,"maeMedian":49,"low":47,"high":70,"coverage":false,"width":23,"pitLower":1,"pitUpper":1,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentPoisson":{"crps":68.64179999999999,"mean":35.23,"median":35,"bias":-71.77000000000001,"maeMean":71.77000000000001,"maeMedian":72,"low":27,"high":45,"coverage":false,"width":18,"pitLower":1,"pitUpper":1,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":62.666225000000004,"mean":34.245,"median":33,"bias":-72.755,"maeMean":72.755,"maeMedian":74,"low":9,"high":64,"coverage":false,"width":55,"pitLower":0.995,"pitUpper":0.995,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"10":0.005,"14":0.005,"17":0.005,"22":0.005,"23":0.005,"24":0.01,"25":0.015,"26":0.005,"27":0.025,"28":0.005,"29":0.015,"30":0.01,"31":0.01,"32":0.015,"33":0.03,"34":0.02,"35":0.025,"36":0.025,"37":0.015,"38":0.01,"39":0.045,"40":0.015,"41":0.01,"42":0.015,"43":0.005,"44":0.035,"45":0.02,"46":0.04,"47":0.01,"48":0.02,"49":0.02,"50":0.025,"51":0.015,"52":0.025,"53":0.01,"54":0.005,"55":0.02,"56":0.005,"57":0.02,"58":0.01,"59":0.03,"60":0.02,"61":0.015,"62":0.02,"63":0.01,"64":0.01,"65":0.01,"66":0.01,"67":0.02,"68":0.01,"69":0.005,"70":0.01,"72":0.005,"73":0.015,"74":0.005,"75":0.005,"76":0.005,"78":0.015,"79":0.01,"80":0.01,"81":0.01,"83":0.02,"85":0.005,"87":0.005,"89":0.005,"92":0.01,"95":0.005,"99":0.01,"101":0.005,"102":0.005,"103":0.005,"104":0.005,"107":0.005,"109":0.005,"115":0.005,"142":0.01,"171":0.005,"175":0.005,"227":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"13":0.005,"17":0.005,"18":0.005,"20":0.01,"21":0.01,"22":0.015,"23":0.01,"24":0.01,"25":0.01,"26":0.005,"27":0.025,"29":0.01,"30":0.03,"31":0.015,"32":0.01,"33":0.03,"34":0.03,"35":0.03,"36":0.02,"37":0.015,"38":0.005,"39":0.015,"40":0.015,"41":0.045,"42":0.015,"43":0.015,"44":0.025,"45":0.01,"46":0.005,"47":0.01,"48":0.01,"50":0.015,"51":0.01,"53":0.015,"54":0.02,"55":0.01,"56":0.01,"57":0.005,"58":0.005,"59":0.005,"60":0.02,"61":0.015,"62":0.005,"63":0.025,"64":0.005,"65":0.02,"66":0.005,"67":0.005,"68":0.005,"69":0.005,"70":0.01,"74":0.025,"75":0.02,"77":0.005,"78":0.005,"79":0.01,"81":0.01,"82":0.005,"83":0.005,"84":0.005,"85":0.005,"86":0.01,"88":0.01,"89":0.005,"90":0.005,"91":0.005,"92":0.005,"94":0.005,"95":0.005,"96":0.015,"98":0.005,"102":0.005,"105":0.005,"106":0.01,"109":0.005,"112":0.005,"113":0.005,"117":0.01,"118":0.005,"119":0.005,"121":0.005,"122":0.005,"124":0.005,"126":0.01,"128":0.005,"129":0.005,"133":0.01,"134":0.005,"139":0.005,"143":0.005,"150":0.005,"176":0.005,"181":0.005,"183":0.005,"226":0.005,"242":0.005,"334":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"20":0.015,"22":0.005,"24":0.005,"26":0.01,"27":0.01,"28":0.01,"29":0.02,"30":0.015,"31":0.015,"32":0.015,"33":0.03,"34":0.03,"35":0.015,"36":0.01,"37":0.015,"38":0.02,"39":0.03,"40":0.03,"41":0.02,"42":0.015,"43":0.03,"44":0.035,"45":0.025,"46":0.015,"47":0.025,"48":0.02,"49":0.01,"50":0.025,"51":0.03,"52":0.025,"53":0.035,"54":0.02,"55":0.005,"56":0.005,"57":0.015,"58":0.01,"59":0.015,"60":0.02,"61":0.005,"62":0.015,"63":0.01,"64":0.01,"65":0.01,"66":0.005,"67":0.015,"68":0.005,"69":0.025,"70":0.01,"71":0.01,"72":0.005,"73":0.005,"74":0.005,"76":0.015,"77":0.01,"81":0.005,"82":0.01,"83":0.005,"84":0.01,"85":0.005,"88":0.005,"89":0.01,"91":0.005,"92":0.01,"94":0.005,"98":0.005,"103":0.005,"106":0.005,"111":0.005,"114":0.005,"126":0.005,"128":0.005,"130":0.005,"135":0.005,"140":0.005,"145":0.005,"155":0.005,"178":0.005,"216":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"37":0.005,"38":0.005,"42":0.005,"44":0.005,"45":0.01,"47":0.02,"48":0.03,"49":0.015,"50":0.02,"51":0.04,"52":0.04,"53":0.07,"54":0.035,"55":0.055,"56":0.06,"57":0.04,"58":0.055,"59":0.045,"60":0.055,"61":0.04,"62":0.035,"63":0.03,"64":0.045,"65":0.055,"66":0.035,"67":0.025,"68":0.025,"69":0.03,"70":0.02,"71":0.005,"72":0.015,"73":0.005,"74":0.005,"77":0.005,"78":0.005,"82":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"14":0.005,"24":0.01,"25":0.01,"26":0.01,"27":0.035,"28":0.04,"29":0.05,"30":0.05,"31":0.055,"32":0.055,"33":0.07,"34":0.055,"35":0.08,"36":0.065,"37":0.085,"38":0.05,"39":0.07,"40":0.055,"41":0.03,"42":0.02,"43":0.01,"44":0.02,"45":0.035,"46":0.005,"48":0.02,"49":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"6":0.015,"7":0.01,"8":0.02,"9":0.015,"10":0.01,"11":0.02,"12":0.025,"13":0.005,"14":0.015,"15":0.005,"16":0.02,"17":0.025,"18":0.04,"19":0.02,"20":0.02,"21":0.005,"22":0.02,"23":0.025,"24":0.035,"25":0.01,"26":0.015,"27":0.015,"28":0.02,"29":0.025,"30":0.01,"31":0.005,"32":0.035,"33":0.02,"34":0.04,"35":0.03,"36":0.035,"37":0.005,"38":0.035,"39":0.015,"40":0.025,"41":0.015,"42":0.015,"43":0.02,"44":0.02,"45":0.025,"46":0.005,"47":0.005,"48":0.02,"49":0.015,"50":0.005,"51":0.015,"52":0.01,"53":0.01,"54":0.01,"56":0.01,"58":0.01,"59":0.01,"60":0.015,"61":0.005,"62":0.005,"63":0.005,"64":0.01,"66":0.005,"67":0.005,"76":0.005,"78":0.005,"79":0.005,"81":0.005,"82":0.005,"99":0.005,"104":0.005,"109":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1567036800000,"validUntil":1569628800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":3,"actual":28,"trainingCount":4056,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2019","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":19.0812,"mean":6.47,"median":6,"bias":-21.53,"maeMean":21.53,"maeMedian":22,"low":1,"high":17,"coverage":false,"width":16,"pitLower":0.995,"pitUpper":0.995,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"rollingETAS":{"crps":16.118675,"mean":8.625,"median":6,"bias":-19.375,"maeMean":19.375,"maeMedian":22,"low":1,"high":20,"coverage":false,"width":19,"pitLower":0.975,"pitUpper":0.98,"empiricalMass":0.005,"logScore":5.298317366548036},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":18.54365,"mean":7.09,"median":6,"bias":-20.91,"maeMean":20.91,"maeMedian":22,"low":2,"high":15,"coverage":false,"width":13,"pitLower":0.995,"pitUpper":0.995,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":18.356675000000003,"mean":7.935,"median":8,"bias":-20.065,"maeMean":20.065,"maeMedian":20,"low":3,"high":14,"coverage":false,"width":11,"pitLower":1,"pitUpper":1,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentPoisson":{"crps":21.534425,"mean":5.145,"median":5,"bias":-22.855,"maeMean":22.855,"maeMedian":23,"low":1,"high":9,"coverage":false,"width":8,"pitLower":1,"pitUpper":1,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":20.064525,"mean":5.505,"median":4,"bias":-22.495,"maeMean":22.495,"maeMedian":24,"low":0,"high":14,"coverage":false,"width":14,"pitLower":1,"pitUpper":1,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.035,"1":0.045,"2":0.105,"3":0.11,"4":0.085,"5":0.11,"6":0.09,"7":0.1,"8":0.095,"9":0.05,"10":0.025,"11":0.03,"12":0.03,"13":0.01,"14":0.01,"15":0.005,"16":0.005,"17":0.02,"18":0.01,"19":0.01,"21":0.01,"23":0.005,"29":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.025,"1":0.06,"2":0.075,"3":0.08,"4":0.09,"5":0.105,"6":0.07,"7":0.06,"8":0.04,"9":0.025,"10":0.06,"11":0.035,"12":0.03,"13":0.035,"14":0.04,"15":0.025,"16":0.03,"17":0.02,"18":0.01,"19":0.03,"20":0.005,"22":0.005,"23":0.01,"24":0.005,"25":0.005,"28":0.005,"33":0.005,"35":0.005,"38":0.005,"49":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.005,"1":0.03,"2":0.065,"3":0.15,"4":0.065,"5":0.135,"6":0.12,"7":0.08,"8":0.055,"9":0.07,"10":0.04,"11":0.035,"12":0.02,"13":0.045,"14":0.03,"15":0.005,"16":0.005,"17":0.01,"19":0.005,"20":0.01,"21":0.005,"22":0.005,"26":0.005,"40":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"2":0.01,"3":0.05,"4":0.065,"5":0.12,"6":0.1,"7":0.105,"8":0.155,"9":0.115,"10":0.1,"11":0.045,"12":0.055,"13":0.02,"14":0.035,"15":0.015,"16":0.005,"17":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.015,"1":0.04,"2":0.08,"3":0.115,"4":0.15,"5":0.16,"6":0.175,"7":0.13,"8":0.06,"9":0.03,"10":0.02,"11":0.015,"12":0.005,"13":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.09,"1":0.095,"2":0.1,"3":0.12,"4":0.12,"5":0.05,"6":0.07,"7":0.085,"8":0.065,"9":0.055,"10":0.015,"11":0.02,"12":0.035,"13":0.02,"14":0.02,"15":0.005,"16":0.005,"18":0.005,"19":0.005,"20":0.01,"21":0.005,"23":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1567036800000,"validUntil":1569628800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":4,"actual":3,"trainingCount":4056,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2019","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":1.8211,"mean":0.77,"median":0,"bias":-2.23,"maeMean":2.23,"maeMedian":3,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.935,"pitUpper":0.97,"empiricalMass":0.035,"logScore":3.3524072174927233},"rollingETAS":{"crps":1.3379000000000003,"mean":1.32,"median":1,"bias":-1.68,"maeMean":1.68,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.815,"pitUpper":0.91,"empiricalMass":0.095,"logScore":2.353878387381596},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":1.9663749999999998,"mean":0.695,"median":0,"bias":-2.305,"maeMean":2.305,"maeMedian":3,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.935,"pitUpper":0.97,"empiricalMass":0.035,"logScore":3.3524072174927233},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":1.587675,"mean":0.925,"median":1,"bias":-2.075,"maeMean":2.075,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.92,"pitUpper":0.995,"empiricalMass":0.075,"logScore":2.5902671654458267},"recentPoisson":{"crps":2.0999000000000003,"mean":0.57,"median":0,"bias":-2.43,"maeMean":2.43,"maeMedian":3,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":false,"width":2,"pitLower":0.99,"pitUpper":0.99,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":2.037225,"mean":0.575,"median":0,"bias":-2.425,"maeMean":2.425,"maeMedian":3,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":false,"width":2,"pitLower":0.97,"pitUpper":1,"empiricalMass":0.03,"logScore":3.506557897319982}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.515,"1":0.31,"2":0.11,"3":0.035,"4":0.02,"5":0.005,"6":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.445,"1":0.235,"2":0.135,"3":0.095,"4":0.035,"5":0.025,"6":0.005,"7":0.005,"8":0.015,"16":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.585,"1":0.28,"2":0.07,"3":0.035,"4":0.005,"5":0.015,"6":0.005,"9":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.395,"1":0.37,"2":0.155,"3":0.075,"4":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.54,"1":0.37,"2":0.08,"4":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.59,"1":0.275,"2":0.105,"3":0.03}}},{"issuedAt":1569628800000,"validUntil":1569715200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":2,"actual":12,"trainingCount":4163,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2019","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":1.5035250000000002,"mean":12.065,"median":11,"bias":0.0649999999999995,"maeMean":0.0649999999999995,"maeMedian":1,"low":4,"high":24,"coverage":true,"width":20,"pitLower":0.55,"pitUpper":0.595,"empiricalMass":0.045,"logScore":3.101092789211817},"rollingETAS":{"crps":1.42145,"mean":13.49,"median":12,"bias":1.4900000000000002,"maeMean":1.4900000000000002,"maeMedian":0,"low":4,"high":29,"coverage":true,"width":25,"pitLower":0.485,"pitUpper":0.54,"empiricalMass":0.055,"logScore":2.900422093749666},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":1.4061499999999998,"mean":13.84,"median":12.5,"bias":1.8399999999999999,"maeMean":1.8399999999999999,"maeMedian":0.5,"low":6,"high":25,"coverage":true,"width":19,"pitLower":0.425,"pitUpper":0.5,"empiricalMass":0.075,"logScore":2.5902671654458267},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":9.138175,"mean":2.075,"median":2,"bias":-9.925,"maeMean":9.925,"maeMedian":10,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":false,"width":5,"pitLower":1,"pitUpper":1,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentPoisson":{"crps":9.99425,"mean":1.39,"median":1,"bias":-10.61,"maeMean":10.61,"maeMedian":11,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":false,"width":4,"pitLower":1,"pitUpper":1,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":9.50835,"mean":1.68,"median":0,"bias":-10.32,"maeMean":10.32,"maeMedian":12,"low":0,"high":9,"coverage":false,"width":9,"pitLower":0.96,"pitUpper":0.97,"empiricalMass":0.01,"logScore":4.605170185988091}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"2":0.02,"3":0.02,"4":0.045,"5":0.03,"6":0.035,"7":0.085,"8":0.125,"9":0.07,"10":0.045,"11":0.075,"12":0.045,"13":0.06,"14":0.05,"15":0.05,"16":0.055,"17":0.025,"18":0.03,"19":0.02,"20":0.02,"21":0.005,"22":0.01,"23":0.005,"24":0.03,"25":0.005,"26":0.015,"27":0.005,"29":0.005,"34":0.005,"38":0.005,"43":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"3":0.02,"4":0.05,"5":0.035,"6":0.06,"7":0.025,"8":0.055,"9":0.07,"10":0.095,"11":0.075,"12":0.055,"13":0.075,"14":0.055,"15":0.06,"16":0.03,"17":0.025,"18":0.05,"19":0.02,"20":0.015,"21":0.025,"22":0.01,"23":0.01,"24":0.005,"26":0.005,"27":0.005,"28":0.01,"29":0.015,"32":0.005,"33":0.005,"35":0.005,"37":0.01,"38":0.005,"44":0.005,"50":0.005,"56":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"4":0.005,"5":0.015,"6":0.045,"7":0.045,"8":0.08,"9":0.07,"10":0.06,"11":0.105,"12":0.075,"13":0.035,"14":0.065,"15":0.055,"16":0.07,"17":0.045,"18":0.03,"19":0.025,"20":0.03,"21":0.03,"22":0.02,"23":0.015,"24":0.015,"25":0.02,"26":0.015,"28":0.01,"29":0.01,"30":0.005,"32":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.145,"1":0.2,"2":0.34,"3":0.16,"4":0.09,"5":0.04,"6":0.02,"7":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.23,"1":0.385,"2":0.215,"3":0.105,"4":0.065},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.67,"1":0.105,"2":0.05,"3":0.045,"4":0.025,"5":0.02,"6":0.01,"7":0.02,"9":0.005,"10":0.005,"11":0.005,"12":0.01,"14":0.01,"21":0.01,"23":0.005,"41":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1569628800000,"validUntil":1569715200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":3,"actual":3,"trainingCount":4163,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2019","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":1.0675,"mean":1.55,"median":1,"bias":-1.45,"maeMean":1.45,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.775,"pitUpper":0.895,"empiricalMass":0.12,"logScore":2.120263536200091},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.949875,"mean":1.795,"median":1,"bias":-1.205,"maeMean":1.205,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":6,"coverage":true,"width":6,"pitLower":0.735,"pitUpper":0.85,"empiricalMass":0.115,"logScore":2.162823150618887},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.9716,"mean":1.66,"median":1,"bias":-1.34,"maeMean":1.34,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.79,"pitUpper":0.89,"empiricalMass":0.1,"logScore":2.3025850929940455},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":2.65425,"mean":0.19,"median":0,"bias":-2.81,"maeMean":2.81,"maeMedian":3,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":false,"width":1,"pitLower":1,"pitUpper":1,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentPoisson":{"crps":2.560875,"mean":0.245,"median":0,"bias":-2.755,"maeMean":2.755,"maeMedian":3,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":false,"width":1,"pitLower":0.995,"pitUpper":1,"empiricalMass":0.005,"logScore":5.298317366548036},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":2.6727250000000002,"mean":0.255,"median":0,"bias":-2.745,"maeMean":2.745,"maeMedian":3,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":false,"width":1,"pitLower":0.96,"pitUpper":0.975,"empiricalMass":0.015,"logScore":4.199705077879927}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.31,"1":0.285,"2":0.18,"3":0.12,"4":0.04,"5":0.03,"6":0.02,"7":0.01,"9":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.265,"1":0.285,"2":0.185,"3":0.115,"4":0.055,"5":0.025,"6":0.05,"7":0.01,"8":0.01},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.225,"1":0.305,"2":0.26,"3":0.1,"4":0.055,"5":0.03,"6":0.01,"7":0.015},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.815,"1":0.18,"2":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.775,"1":0.21,"2":0.01,"3":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.915,"1":0.04,"2":0.005,"3":0.015,"5":0.005,"6":0.005,"7":0.015}}},{"issuedAt":1569628800000,"validUntil":1569715200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4163,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2019","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.0126,"mean":0.14,"median":0,"bias":0.14,"maeMean":0.14,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.89,"empiricalMass":0.89,"logScore":0.11653381625595151},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.030350000000000016,"mean":0.23,"median":0,"bias":0.23,"maeMean":0.23,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.835,"empiricalMass":0.835,"logScore":0.18032355413128162},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.0305,"mean":0.21,"median":0,"bias":0.21,"maeMean":0.21,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.83,"empiricalMass":0.83,"logScore":0.18632957819149348},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.0006250000000000006,"mean":0.025,"median":0,"bias":0.025,"maeMean":0.025,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.975,"empiricalMass":0.975,"logScore":0.025317807984289897},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.003599999999999999,"mean":0.06,"median":0,"bias":0.06,"maeMean":0.06,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.94,"empiricalMass":0.94,"logScore":0.06187540371808753},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.0006250000000000006,"mean":0.025,"median":0,"bias":0.025,"maeMean":0.025,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.975,"empiricalMass":0.975,"logScore":0.025317807984289897}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.89,"1":0.09,"2":0.01,"3":0.01},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.835,"1":0.11,"2":0.045,"3":0.01},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.83,"1":0.13,"2":0.04},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.975,"1":0.025},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.94,"1":0.06},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.975,"1":0.025}}},{"issuedAt":1569628800000,"validUntil":1570233600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":2,"actual":29,"trainingCount":4163,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2019","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":15.24505,"mean":53.96,"median":50,"bias":24.96,"maeMean":24.96,"maeMedian":21,"low":28,"high":96,"coverage":true,"width":68,"pitLower":0.05,"pitUpper":0.055,"empiricalMass":0.005,"logScore":5.298317366548036},"rollingETAS":{"crps":16.02985,"mean":57.49,"median":52.5,"bias":28.490000000000002,"maeMean":28.490000000000002,"maeMedian":23.5,"low":30,"high":109,"coverage":false,"width":79,"pitLower":0.04,"pitUpper":0.04,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":21.028599999999997,"mean":62.06,"median":58,"bias":33.06,"maeMean":33.06,"maeMedian":29,"low":34,"high":108,"coverage":false,"width":74,"pitLower":0.015,"pitUpper":0.02,"empiricalMass":0.005,"logScore":5.298317366548036},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":13.0277,"mean":14.05,"median":14,"bias":-14.95,"maeMean":14.95,"maeMedian":15,"low":9,"high":19,"coverage":false,"width":10,"pitLower":1,"pitUpper":1,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentPoisson":{"crps":18.153825,"mean":9.105,"median":9,"bias":-19.895,"maeMean":19.895,"maeMedian":20,"low":4,"high":14,"coverage":false,"width":10,"pitLower":1,"pitUpper":1,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":17.253075,"mean":8.935,"median":4,"bias":-20.064999999999998,"maeMean":20.064999999999998,"maeMedian":25,"low":0,"high":36,"coverage":true,"width":36,"pitLower":0.93,"pitUpper":0.935,"empiricalMass":0.005,"logScore":5.298317366548036}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"17":0.005,"20":0.005,"22":0.005,"23":0.015,"25":0.015,"28":0.005,"29":0.005,"30":0.02,"31":0.015,"32":0.02,"33":0.005,"34":0.01,"35":0.005,"36":0.025,"37":0.005,"38":0.015,"39":0.01,"40":0.025,"41":0.035,"42":0.03,"43":0.02,"44":0.015,"45":0.02,"46":0.035,"47":0.05,"48":0.04,"49":0.035,"50":0.025,"51":0.01,"52":0.02,"53":0.03,"54":0.025,"55":0.015,"56":0.02,"57":0.015,"58":0.045,"59":0.01,"60":0.01,"61":0.03,"62":0.005,"63":0.01,"64":0.02,"65":0.01,"66":0.02,"67":0.015,"69":0.01,"70":0.005,"72":0.005,"73":0.005,"75":0.025,"77":0.01,"78":0.015,"80":0.01,"82":0.005,"84":0.01,"85":0.005,"89":0.005,"90":0.005,"92":0.005,"96":0.005,"97":0.005,"98":0.01,"99":0.01,"101":0.005,"108":0.005,"109":0.005,"110":0.005,"134":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"23":0.005,"24":0.01,"27":0.015,"28":0.01,"30":0.01,"31":0.02,"32":0.01,"33":0.025,"34":0.01,"35":0.025,"36":0.015,"37":0.02,"38":0.02,"39":0.025,"40":0.03,"41":0.025,"42":0.03,"43":0.02,"44":0.005,"45":0.04,"46":0.03,"47":0.02,"48":0.005,"49":0.04,"50":0.025,"51":0.005,"52":0.005,"53":0.02,"54":0.02,"55":0.02,"56":0.03,"57":0.015,"58":0.01,"59":0.025,"60":0.02,"61":0.005,"62":0.015,"63":0.01,"64":0.015,"65":0.02,"66":0.01,"67":0.035,"68":0.02,"69":0.005,"70":0.005,"71":0.005,"72":0.005,"73":0.015,"74":0.015,"75":0.005,"78":0.005,"79":0.01,"80":0.01,"81":0.005,"82":0.005,"84":0.005,"86":0.005,"87":0.01,"89":0.015,"93":0.005,"94":0.01,"95":0.005,"96":0.005,"105":0.005,"109":0.005,"111":0.005,"117":0.005,"119":0.005,"120":0.005,"125":0.005,"131":0.005,"132":0.005,"153":0.005,"165":0.005,"170":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"18":0.005,"25":0.005,"27":0.005,"29":0.005,"30":0.005,"32":0.015,"34":0.01,"35":0.02,"36":0.01,"37":0.01,"38":0.025,"39":0.025,"40":0.01,"41":0.015,"42":0.01,"43":0.025,"44":0.025,"45":0.025,"46":0.005,"48":0.02,"49":0.025,"50":0.02,"51":0.02,"52":0.02,"53":0.015,"54":0.02,"55":0.055,"56":0.01,"57":0.015,"58":0.04,"59":0.04,"60":0.01,"61":0.035,"62":0.005,"63":0.02,"64":0.03,"65":0.02,"66":0.015,"67":0.015,"68":0.02,"69":0.005,"70":0.005,"72":0.01,"73":0.02,"74":0.01,"75":0.01,"76":0.015,"77":0.015,"78":0.005,"79":0.01,"80":0.025,"81":0.005,"82":0.01,"83":0.01,"84":0.005,"85":0.005,"86":0.005,"87":0.005,"90":0.005,"91":0.01,"94":0.005,"95":0.005,"97":0.005,"101":0.01,"104":0.005,"108":0.005,"111":0.005,"115":0.005,"116":0.005,"121":0.005,"126":0.005,"131":0.005,"141":0.005,"144":0.005,"158":0.005,"175":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"5":0.005,"7":0.02,"8":0.02,"9":0.07,"10":0.055,"11":0.05,"12":0.1,"13":0.115,"14":0.1,"15":0.115,"16":0.13,"17":0.065,"18":0.065,"19":0.045,"20":0.01,"21":0.02,"22":0.005,"23":0.005,"24":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"1":0.005,"2":0.005,"3":0.015,"4":0.035,"5":0.065,"6":0.09,"7":0.085,"8":0.13,"9":0.15,"10":0.105,"11":0.075,"12":0.095,"13":0.06,"14":0.06,"15":0.005,"16":0.01,"18":0.005,"19":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.205,"1":0.16,"2":0.09,"3":0.03,"4":0.05,"5":0.05,"6":0.055,"7":0.05,"8":0.025,"9":0.02,"10":0.01,"11":0.015,"12":0.02,"13":0.01,"14":0.02,"15":0.005,"16":0.015,"17":0.005,"18":0.03,"19":0.015,"20":0.005,"22":0.02,"25":0.01,"27":0.005,"28":0.01,"29":0.005,"30":0.005,"36":0.01,"38":0.005,"45":0.01,"57":0.005,"59":0.005,"60":0.005,"66":0.005,"72":0.005,"78":0.005,"79":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1569628800000,"validUntil":1570233600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":3,"actual":5,"trainingCount":4163,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2019","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.9395500000000001,"mean":6.36,"median":6,"bias":1.3600000000000003,"maeMean":1.3600000000000003,"maeMedian":1,"low":1,"high":14,"coverage":true,"width":13,"pitLower":0.335,"pitUpper":0.44,"empiricalMass":0.105,"logScore":2.2537949288246137},"rollingETAS":{"crps":1.311925,"mean":7.565,"median":7,"bias":2.5650000000000004,"maeMean":2.5650000000000004,"maeMedian":2,"low":1,"high":17,"coverage":true,"width":16,"pitLower":0.335,"pitUpper":0.42,"empiricalMass":0.085,"logScore":2.4651040224918206},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":1.4059499999999998,"mean":7.69,"median":7,"bias":2.6900000000000004,"maeMean":2.6900000000000004,"maeMedian":2,"low":2,"high":16,"coverage":true,"width":14,"pitLower":0.275,"pitUpper":0.35,"empiricalMass":0.075,"logScore":2.5902671654458267},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":2.3053,"mean":1.94,"median":2,"bias":-3.06,"maeMean":3.06,"maeMedian":3,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":false,"width":4,"pitLower":0.955,"pitUpper":0.995,"empiricalMass":0.04,"logScore":3.2188758248682006},"recentPoisson":{"crps":2.628925,"mean":1.685,"median":1,"bias":-3.315,"maeMean":3.315,"maeMedian":4,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":false,"width":4,"pitLower":0.97,"pitUpper":0.985,"empiricalMass":0.015,"logScore":4.199705077879927},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":2.912725,"mean":1.775,"median":0,"bias":-3.225,"maeMean":3.225,"maeMedian":5,"low":0,"high":10,"coverage":true,"width":10,"pitLower":0.865,"pitUpper":0.88,"empiricalMass":0.015,"logScore":4.199705077879927}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.03,"1":0.035,"2":0.085,"3":0.1,"4":0.085,"5":0.105,"6":0.095,"7":0.16,"8":0.08,"9":0.065,"10":0.035,"11":0.025,"12":0.015,"13":0.03,"14":0.025,"15":0.005,"16":0.005,"17":0.01,"20":0.005,"21":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.02,"1":0.04,"2":0.06,"3":0.085,"4":0.13,"5":0.085,"6":0.075,"7":0.07,"8":0.07,"9":0.115,"10":0.015,"11":0.045,"12":0.025,"13":0.03,"14":0.035,"15":0.02,"16":0.015,"17":0.02,"18":0.01,"19":0.005,"20":0.01,"21":0.005,"25":0.01,"27":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.005,"1":0.015,"2":0.06,"3":0.105,"4":0.09,"5":0.075,"6":0.125,"7":0.07,"8":0.065,"9":0.065,"10":0.065,"11":0.085,"12":0.075,"13":0.01,"14":0.03,"15":0.005,"16":0.015,"17":0.02,"20":0.005,"21":0.005,"24":0.005,"29":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.135,"1":0.32,"2":0.225,"3":0.16,"4":0.115,"5":0.04,"6":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.2,"1":0.31,"2":0.25,"3":0.14,"4":0.07,"5":0.015,"6":0.005,"7":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.585,"1":0.115,"2":0.07,"3":0.065,"4":0.03,"5":0.015,"6":0.01,"7":0.03,"8":0.015,"9":0.01,"10":0.02,"11":0.015,"12":0.005,"13":0.01,"19":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1569628800000,"validUntil":1570233600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4163,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2019","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.27935,"mean":0.74,"median":0.5,"bias":0.74,"maeMean":0.74,"maeMedian":0.5,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.5,"empiricalMass":0.5,"logScore":0.6931471805599453},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.28642500000000004,"mean":0.925,"median":0,"bias":0.925,"maeMean":0.925,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.535,"empiricalMass":0.535,"logScore":0.6254885320861304},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.3926749999999999,"mean":1.005,"median":1,"bias":1.005,"maeMean":1.005,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.45,"empiricalMass":0.45,"logScore":0.7985076962177716},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.05185000000000001,"mean":0.26,"median":0,"bias":0.26,"maeMean":0.26,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.775,"empiricalMass":0.775,"logScore":0.25489224962879004},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.026524999999999993,"mean":0.195,"median":0,"bias":0.195,"maeMean":0.195,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.84,"empiricalMass":0.84,"logScore":0.1743533871447778},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.03617500000000001,"mean":0.275,"median":0,"bias":0.275,"maeMean":0.275,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.825,"empiricalMass":0.825,"logScore":0.19237189264745613}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.5,"1":0.335,"2":0.125,"3":0.02,"4":0.01,"5":0.005,"6":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.535,"1":0.235,"2":0.11,"3":0.075,"4":0.025,"5":0.005,"6":0.005,"8":0.005,"10":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.45,"1":0.275,"2":0.165,"3":0.065,"4":0.025,"5":0.015,"6":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.775,"1":0.19,"2":0.035},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.84,"1":0.13,"2":0.025,"3":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.825,"1":0.105,"2":0.045,"3":0.02,"4":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1569628800000,"validUntil":1572220800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":2,"actual":72,"trainingCount":4163,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2019","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":38.859475,"mean":134.455,"median":130,"bias":62.45500000000001,"maeMean":62.45500000000001,"maeMedian":58,"low":77,"high":215,"coverage":false,"width":138,"pitLower":0.035,"pitUpper":0.04,"empiricalMass":0.005,"logScore":5.298317366548036},"rollingETAS":{"crps":43.189075,"mean":141.415,"median":133,"bias":69.41499999999999,"maeMean":69.41499999999999,"maeMedian":61,"low":79,"high":244,"coverage":false,"width":165,"pitLower":0.02,"pitUpper":0.03,"empiricalMass":0.01,"logScore":4.605170185988091},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":51.383875,"mean":145.845,"median":137.5,"bias":73.845,"maeMean":73.845,"maeMedian":65.5,"low":93,"high":231,"coverage":false,"width":138,"pitLower":0.005,"pitUpper":0.005,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":8.556,"mean":59.56,"median":60,"bias":-12.439999999999998,"maeMean":12.439999999999998,"maeMedian":12,"low":47,"high":70,"coverage":false,"width":23,"pitLower":0.955,"pitUpper":0.97,"empiricalMass":0.015,"logScore":4.199705077879927},"recentPoisson":{"crps":29.001649999999998,"mean":39.28,"median":38,"bias":-32.72,"maeMean":32.72,"maeMedian":34,"low":29,"high":52,"coverage":false,"width":23,"pitLower":1,"pitUpper":1,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":24.679175,"mean":39.115,"median":33,"bias":-32.885,"maeMean":32.885,"maeMedian":39,"low":7,"high":99,"coverage":true,"width":92,"pitLower":0.87,"pitUpper":0.88,"empiricalMass":0.01,"logScore":4.605170185988091}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"60":0.005,"63":0.005,"64":0.005,"65":0.005,"66":0.005,"67":0.005,"70":0.005,"72":0.005,"74":0.005,"77":0.005,"78":0.005,"79":0.01,"80":0.005,"81":0.01,"83":0.005,"84":0.005,"85":0.005,"86":0.005,"87":0.025,"88":0.01,"89":0.01,"91":0.005,"92":0.01,"93":0.01,"94":0.01,"95":0.01,"96":0.005,"97":0.01,"98":0.025,"99":0.005,"100":0.01,"101":0.005,"102":0.01,"103":0.015,"104":0.005,"105":0.005,"106":0.005,"107":0.005,"109":0.01,"110":0.005,"111":0.005,"112":0.025,"113":0.005,"114":0.01,"115":0.02,"116":0.02,"118":0.01,"119":0.005,"120":0.01,"121":0.01,"122":0.005,"123":0.01,"124":0.005,"125":0.01,"126":0.01,"127":0.01,"128":0.005,"129":0.005,"130":0.02,"131":0.01,"132":0.02,"133":0.005,"134":0.01,"135":0.005,"136":0.005,"137":0.02,"139":0.015,"140":0.01,"141":0.01,"142":0.01,"143":0.01,"144":0.015,"145":0.01,"146":0.02,"148":0.01,"150":0.005,"151":0.015,"153":0.015,"154":0.005,"155":0.01,"157":0.01,"158":0.005,"159":0.01,"160":0.015,"161":0.02,"162":0.005,"163":0.005,"164":0.01,"165":0.02,"167":0.005,"168":0.005,"169":0.005,"173":0.005,"175":0.01,"177":0.005,"178":0.005,"180":0.005,"184":0.005,"185":0.005,"192":0.005,"193":0.005,"195":0.005,"199":0.005,"200":0.005,"202":0.005,"203":0.005,"206":0.005,"212":0.005,"215":0.005,"232":0.005,"238":0.005,"243":0.005,"244":0.005,"249":0.005,"252":0.005,"264":0.005,"292":0.005,"294":0.005,"358":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"58":0.005,"61":0.005,"71":0.01,"72":0.01,"73":0.005,"78":0.005,"79":0.01,"80":0.005,"81":0.02,"83":0.01,"86":0.005,"87":0.005,"88":0.005,"89":0.015,"90":0.005,"92":0.005,"93":0.005,"95":0.01,"96":0.015,"97":0.01,"99":0.015,"100":0.015,"101":0.005,"102":0.01,"103":0.005,"104":0.01,"105":0.01,"106":0.005,"107":0.025,"108":0.01,"109":0.005,"110":0.005,"111":0.015,"112":0.01,"113":0.015,"114":0.005,"115":0.005,"116":0.015,"117":0.015,"118":0.005,"119":0.005,"120":0.005,"121":0.005,"122":0.015,"123":0.02,"124":0.01,"126":0.01,"127":0.005,"128":0.005,"129":0.005,"130":0.01,"131":0.03,"133":0.02,"134":0.005,"135":0.005,"136":0.005,"137":0.01,"138":0.01,"140":0.015,"141":0.02,"142":0.015,"143":0.01,"144":0.005,"145":0.01,"146":0.01,"147":0.005,"148":0.02,"149":0.01,"150":0.015,"151":0.005,"152":0.005,"153":0.005,"156":0.005,"157":0.015,"158":0.005,"159":0.01,"160":0.005,"162":0.015,"163":0.005,"167":0.005,"168":0.01,"170":0.01,"172":0.005,"174":0.01,"176":0.01,"177":0.005,"179":0.005,"182":0.02,"187":0.01,"188":0.005,"191":0.005,"192":0.005,"199":0.005,"200":0.005,"201":0.01,"205":0.005,"208":0.005,"211":0.005,"212":0.005,"214":0.005,"217":0.005,"219":0.005,"220":0.005,"221":0.005,"223":0.005,"236":0.005,"239":0.005,"244":0.005,"247":0.01,"251":0.005,"257":0.005,"276":0.005,"279":0.005,"281":0.005,"283":0.005,"303":0.005,"333":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"58":0.005,"75":0.005,"78":0.005,"83":0.005,"84":0.005,"85":0.005,"88":0.005,"89":0.005,"91":0.005,"93":0.005,"95":0.005,"96":0.02,"97":0.01,"98":0.005,"99":0.005,"100":0.02,"101":0.005,"102":0.005,"104":0.02,"106":0.01,"107":0.005,"108":0.01,"109":0.005,"110":0.015,"111":0.01,"113":0.005,"115":0.005,"116":0.015,"117":0.01,"118":0.005,"119":0.015,"121":0.015,"122":0.005,"123":0.025,"124":0.01,"125":0.02,"126":0.02,"127":0.015,"128":0.01,"129":0.01,"130":0.02,"131":0.02,"132":0.015,"134":0.025,"135":0.01,"136":0.02,"137":0.005,"138":0.005,"139":0.005,"140":0.025,"141":0.01,"142":0.03,"143":0.015,"144":0.005,"145":0.015,"146":0.005,"147":0.01,"148":0.005,"149":0.01,"151":0.01,"152":0.01,"153":0.01,"155":0.005,"156":0.015,"157":0.005,"159":0.01,"160":0.005,"161":0.015,"162":0.005,"163":0.01,"166":0.005,"167":0.03,"168":0.005,"169":0.02,"171":0.005,"172":0.01,"175":0.01,"177":0.005,"181":0.005,"182":0.005,"183":0.01,"184":0.01,"186":0.005,"189":0.005,"193":0.005,"199":0.005,"201":0.015,"203":0.015,"207":0.005,"209":0.005,"211":0.005,"220":0.005,"223":0.005,"227":0.005,"228":0.005,"231":0.005,"237":0.005,"238":0.005,"242":0.005,"249":0.01,"258":0.005,"261":0.005,"279":0.005,"296":0.005,"326":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"39":0.005,"42":0.01,"44":0.005,"46":0.025,"47":0.025,"48":0.01,"49":0.005,"50":0.005,"51":0.03,"52":0.05,"53":0.025,"54":0.045,"55":0.03,"56":0.06,"57":0.045,"58":0.03,"59":0.07,"60":0.045,"61":0.07,"62":0.085,"63":0.02,"64":0.04,"65":0.06,"66":0.03,"67":0.05,"68":0.035,"69":0.015,"70":0.025,"71":0.005,"72":0.015,"73":0.015,"74":0.015},"recentPoisson":{"25":0.01,"27":0.01,"28":0.015,"29":0.03,"31":0.025,"32":0.045,"33":0.06,"34":0.06,"35":0.055,"36":0.07,"37":0.06,"38":0.065,"39":0.035,"40":0.065,"41":0.05,"42":0.05,"43":0.055,"44":0.03,"45":0.05,"46":0.025,"47":0.02,"48":0.01,"49":0.02,"50":0.015,"51":0.015,"52":0.005,"53":0.02,"54":0.005,"55":0.01,"56":0.01,"57":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.005,"1":0.005,"3":0.005,"4":0.005,"5":0.005,"6":0.005,"7":0.02,"8":0.025,"9":0.01,"10":0.02,"11":0.02,"13":0.03,"14":0.005,"15":0.015,"16":0.02,"17":0.02,"18":0.02,"19":0.01,"20":0.035,"21":0.015,"22":0.01,"23":0.02,"24":0.025,"25":0.025,"26":0.015,"27":0.03,"28":0.015,"29":0.03,"30":0.02,"31":0.005,"32":0.005,"33":0.03,"34":0.03,"35":0.005,"36":0.025,"37":0.015,"38":0.01,"39":0.025,"40":0.01,"41":0.01,"42":0.015,"43":0.01,"44":0.01,"45":0.01,"46":0.01,"47":0.01,"49":0.015,"50":0.005,"51":0.01,"52":0.005,"53":0.005,"54":0.005,"55":0.025,"56":0.015,"57":0.015,"58":0.015,"62":0.005,"65":0.005,"66":0.01,"67":0.005,"71":0.01,"72":0.01,"74":0.005,"76":0.01,"79":0.01,"82":0.005,"83":0.005,"85":0.005,"86":0.005,"89":0.005,"90":0.005,"93":0.005,"94":0.005,"99":0.015,"102":0.005,"107":0.005,"114":0.005,"120":0.005,"130":0.005,"145":0.005,"146":0.005,"148":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1569628800000,"validUntil":1572220800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":3,"actual":12,"trainingCount":4163,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2019","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":2.35755,"mean":16.58,"median":15,"bias":4.579999999999998,"maeMean":4.579999999999998,"maeMedian":3,"low":7,"high":31,"coverage":true,"width":24,"pitLower":0.305,"pitUpper":0.365,"empiricalMass":0.06,"logScore":2.8134107167600364},"rollingETAS":{"crps":3.086825,"mean":18.185,"median":17,"bias":6.184999999999999,"maeMean":6.184999999999999,"maeMedian":5,"low":6,"high":36,"coverage":true,"width":30,"pitLower":0.205,"pitUpper":0.26,"empiricalMass":0.055,"logScore":2.900422093749666},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":2.689450000000001,"mean":17.64,"median":16,"bias":5.640000000000001,"maeMean":5.640000000000001,"maeMedian":4,"low":7,"high":33,"coverage":true,"width":26,"pitLower":0.215,"pitUpper":0.265,"empiricalMass":0.05,"logScore":2.995732273553991},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":2.502275,"mean":8.115,"median":8,"bias":-3.885,"maeMean":3.885,"maeMedian":4,"low":4,"high":13,"coverage":true,"width":9,"pitLower":0.86,"pitUpper":0.94,"empiricalMass":0.08,"logScore":2.5257286443082556},"recentPoisson":{"crps":3.50995,"mean":7.12,"median":7,"bias":-4.88,"maeMean":4.88,"maeMedian":5,"low":3,"high":12,"coverage":true,"width":9,"pitLower":0.945,"pitUpper":0.975,"empiricalMass":0.03,"logScore":3.506557897319982},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":3.7609999999999992,"mean":8.78,"median":5,"bias":-3.2200000000000006,"maeMean":3.2200000000000006,"maeMedian":7,"low":0,"high":30,"coverage":true,"width":30,"pitLower":0.745,"pitUpper":0.775,"empiricalMass":0.03,"logScore":3.506557897319982}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"2":0.005,"3":0.005,"4":0.005,"5":0.015,"6":0.005,"7":0.045,"8":0.05,"9":0.075,"10":0.045,"11":0.055,"12":0.06,"13":0.04,"14":0.05,"15":0.05,"16":0.065,"17":0.025,"18":0.035,"19":0.05,"20":0.06,"21":0.05,"22":0.04,"23":0.025,"24":0.005,"25":0.02,"27":0.015,"28":0.02,"29":0.01,"30":0.01,"31":0.025,"33":0.005,"34":0.01,"36":0.005,"38":0.005,"47":0.01,"50":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"2":0.005,"3":0.005,"4":0.005,"5":0.01,"6":0.025,"7":0.02,"8":0.04,"9":0.02,"10":0.045,"11":0.03,"12":0.055,"13":0.065,"14":0.075,"15":0.04,"16":0.045,"17":0.05,"18":0.025,"19":0.04,"20":0.06,"21":0.055,"22":0.035,"23":0.045,"24":0.03,"25":0.015,"26":0.01,"27":0.025,"28":0.005,"29":0.01,"30":0.015,"31":0.015,"32":0.005,"35":0.01,"36":0.015,"37":0.01,"38":0.01,"39":0.01,"41":0.005,"42":0.005,"43":0.005,"46":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"5":0.005,"6":0.005,"7":0.04,"8":0.025,"9":0.04,"10":0.045,"11":0.055,"12":0.05,"13":0.065,"14":0.07,"15":0.065,"16":0.065,"17":0.07,"18":0.045,"19":0.025,"20":0.03,"21":0.06,"22":0.025,"23":0.035,"24":0.02,"25":0.005,"26":0.02,"27":0.03,"28":0.015,"29":0.005,"30":0.01,"31":0.01,"33":0.015,"34":0.005,"35":0.005,"37":0.01,"38":0.005,"39":0.005,"41":0.005,"42":0.005,"44":0.01},"expandingPoisson":{"2":0.01,"3":0.035,"4":0.055,"5":0.065,"6":0.125,"7":0.155,"8":0.15,"9":0.105,"10":0.07,"11":0.09,"12":0.08,"13":0.035,"14":0.02,"16":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"1":0.005,"2":0.035,"3":0.045,"4":0.07,"5":0.115,"6":0.13,"7":0.175,"8":0.135,"9":0.13,"10":0.06,"11":0.045,"12":0.03,"13":0.015,"15":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.105,"1":0.09,"2":0.075,"3":0.105,"4":0.06,"5":0.08,"6":0.05,"7":0.055,"8":0.055,"9":0.02,"10":0.02,"11":0.03,"12":0.03,"13":0.02,"14":0.005,"15":0.02,"16":0.02,"17":0.015,"18":0.005,"19":0.02,"20":0.005,"21":0.015,"22":0.005,"24":0.005,"25":0.005,"26":0.005,"28":0.02,"30":0.01,"31":0.005,"32":0.005,"33":0.005,"34":0.005,"35":0.005,"38":0.005,"43":0.005,"47":0.005,"48":0.005,"50":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1569628800000,"validUntil":1572220800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":4,"actual":1,"trainingCount":4163,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2019","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.51245,"mean":2.04,"median":2,"bias":1.04,"maeMean":1.04,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":6,"coverage":true,"width":6,"pitLower":0.235,"pitUpper":0.46,"empiricalMass":0.225,"logScore":1.491654876777717},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.46740000000000004,"mean":1.97,"median":2,"bias":0.97,"maeMean":0.97,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":6,"coverage":true,"width":6,"pitLower":0.255,"pitUpper":0.485,"empiricalMass":0.23,"logScore":1.4696759700589417},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.423125,"mean":1.895,"median":2,"bias":0.895,"maeMean":0.895,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.225,"pitUpper":0.495,"empiricalMass":0.27,"logScore":1.3093333199837622},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.22252499999999997,"mean":1.035,"median":1,"bias":0.03499999999999992,"maeMean":0.03499999999999992,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.355,"pitUpper":0.7,"empiricalMass":0.345,"logScore":1.0642108619507773},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.20337499999999997,"mean":0.895,"median":1,"bias":-0.10499999999999998,"maeMean":0.10499999999999998,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.4,"pitUpper":0.805,"empiricalMass":0.405,"logScore":0.9038682118755978},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.28015,"mean":0.73,"median":0,"bias":-0.27,"maeMean":0.27,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.505,"pitUpper":0.855,"empiricalMass":0.35,"logScore":1.0498221244986778}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.235,"1":0.225,"2":0.21,"3":0.13,"4":0.085,"5":0.06,"6":0.035,"7":0.015,"10":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.255,"1":0.23,"2":0.23,"3":0.09,"4":0.085,"5":0.04,"6":0.045,"7":0.01,"8":0.01,"10":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.225,"1":0.27,"2":0.205,"3":0.16,"4":0.07,"5":0.025,"6":0.02,"7":0.01,"8":0.01,"12":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.355,"1":0.345,"2":0.22,"3":0.07,"4":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.4,"1":0.405,"2":0.125,"3":0.05,"4":0.015,"6":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.505,"1":0.35,"2":0.085,"3":0.04,"4":0.01,"5":0.01}}},{"issuedAt":1572220800000,"validUntil":1572307200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":2,"actual":3,"trainingCount":4235,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2019","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.9317749999999998,"mean":2.205,"median":1,"bias":-0.7949999999999999,"maeMean":0.7949999999999999,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":7,"coverage":true,"width":7,"pitLower":0.715,"pitUpper":0.78,"empiricalMass":0.065,"logScore":2.7333680090865},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.8895499999999998,"mean":2.22,"median":1,"bias":-0.7799999999999998,"maeMean":0.7799999999999998,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":7,"coverage":true,"width":7,"pitLower":0.675,"pitUpper":0.795,"empiricalMass":0.12,"logScore":2.120263536200091},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.7697,"mean":2.75,"median":2,"bias":-0.25,"maeMean":0.25,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":8,"coverage":true,"width":8,"pitLower":0.62,"pitUpper":0.745,"empiricalMass":0.125,"logScore":2.0794415416798357},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.7466,"mean":1.87,"median":2,"bias":-1.13,"maeMean":1.13,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.725,"pitUpper":0.875,"empiricalMass":0.15,"logScore":1.8971199848858813},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.9949,"mean":1.54,"median":1,"bias":-1.46,"maeMean":1.46,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.785,"pitUpper":0.9,"empiricalMass":0.115,"logScore":2.162823150618887},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":1.7478500000000001,"mean":1.4,"median":0,"bias":-1.6,"maeMean":1.6,"maeMedian":3,"low":0,"high":10,"coverage":true,"width":10,"pitLower":0.83,"pitUpper":0.855,"empiricalMass":0.025,"logScore":3.6888794541139363}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.26,"1":0.26,"2":0.195,"3":0.065,"4":0.095,"5":0.04,"6":0.01,"7":0.025,"8":0.01,"9":0.015,"10":0.005,"11":0.005,"12":0.005,"14":0.005,"19":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.23,"1":0.33,"2":0.115,"3":0.12,"4":0.1,"5":0.04,"6":0.005,"7":0.01,"8":0.01,"9":0.01,"10":0.01,"11":0.005,"14":0.005,"17":0.005,"24":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.21,"1":0.25,"2":0.16,"3":0.125,"4":0.08,"5":0.055,"6":0.045,"7":0.01,"8":0.015,"9":0.01,"10":0.01,"12":0.005,"17":0.01,"18":0.005,"21":0.005,"27":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.165,"1":0.255,"2":0.305,"3":0.15,"4":0.085,"5":0.03,"6":0.005,"7":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.245,"1":0.31,"2":0.23,"3":0.115,"4":0.075,"5":0.025},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.65,"1":0.115,"2":0.065,"3":0.025,"4":0.045,"5":0.03,"6":0.005,"7":0.01,"10":0.02,"11":0.015,"12":0.01,"15":0.005,"18":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1572220800000,"validUntil":1572307200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":3,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4235,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2019","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.04254999999999998,"mean":0.29,"median":0,"bias":0.29,"maeMean":0.29,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.805,"empiricalMass":0.805,"logScore":0.21691300156357363},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.037924999999999986,"mean":0.245,"median":0,"bias":0.245,"maeMean":0.245,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.81,"empiricalMass":0.81,"logScore":0.21072103131565253},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.07127499999999998,"mean":0.375,"median":0,"bias":0.375,"maeMean":0.375,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.745,"empiricalMass":0.745,"logScore":0.29437106060257756},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.071125,"mean":0.295,"median":0,"bias":0.295,"maeMean":0.295,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.735,"empiricalMass":0.735,"logScore":0.3078847797693004},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.07492499999999999,"mean":0.315,"median":0,"bias":0.315,"maeMean":0.315,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.73,"empiricalMass":0.73,"logScore":0.31471074483970024},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.013700000000000018,"mean":0.2,"median":0,"bias":0.2,"maeMean":0.2,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.9,"empiricalMass":0.9,"logScore":0.10536051565782628}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.805,"1":0.135,"2":0.03,"3":0.025,"4":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.81,"1":0.15,"2":0.025,"3":0.015},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.745,"1":0.185,"2":0.035,"3":0.025,"4":0.005,"5":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.735,"1":0.235,"2":0.03},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.73,"1":0.225,"2":0.045},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.9,"1":0.045,"2":0.035,"3":0.005,"4":0.01,"6":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1572220800000,"validUntil":1572307200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4235,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2019","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.0016250000000000014,"mean":0.045,"median":0,"bias":0.045,"maeMean":0.045,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.96,"empiricalMass":0.96,"logScore":0.040821994520255166},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.0012250000000000039,"mean":0.035,"median":0,"bias":0.035,"maeMean":0.035,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.965,"empiricalMass":0.965,"logScore":0.03562717764315116},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.002024999999999999,"mean":0.045,"median":0,"bias":0.045,"maeMean":0.045,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.955,"empiricalMass":0.955,"logScore":0.046043938501406846},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.000899999999999998,"mean":0.03,"median":0,"bias":0.03,"maeMean":0.03,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.97,"empiricalMass":0.97,"logScore":0.030459207484708574},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.0012500000000000011,"mean":0.04,"median":0,"bias":0.04,"maeMean":0.04,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.965,"empiricalMass":0.965,"logScore":0.03562717764315116},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.0012250000000000039,"mean":0.035,"median":0,"bias":0.035,"maeMean":0.035,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.965,"empiricalMass":0.965,"logScore":0.03562717764315116}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.96,"1":0.035,"2":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.965,"1":0.035},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.955,"1":0.045},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.97,"1":0.03},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.965,"1":0.03,"2":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.965,"1":0.035}}},{"issuedAt":1572220800000,"validUntil":1572825600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":2,"actual":8,"trainingCount":4235,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2019","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":3.4929500000000004,"mean":15.45,"median":14,"bias":7.449999999999999,"maeMean":7.449999999999999,"maeMedian":6,"low":4,"high":36,"coverage":true,"width":32,"pitLower":0.16,"pitUpper":0.235,"empiricalMass":0.075,"logScore":2.5902671654458267},"rollingETAS":{"crps":4.558225,"mean":19.585,"median":14.5,"bias":11.585,"maeMean":11.585,"maeMedian":6.5,"low":5,"high":47,"coverage":true,"width":42,"pitLower":0.17,"pitUpper":0.23,"empiricalMass":0.06,"logScore":2.8134107167600364},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":4.4412,"mean":17.86,"median":14.5,"bias":9.86,"maeMean":9.86,"maeMedian":6.5,"low":6,"high":46,"coverage":true,"width":40,"pitLower":0.11,"pitUpper":0.185,"empiricalMass":0.075,"logScore":2.5902671654458267},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":3.6370500000000003,"mean":13.62,"median":14,"bias":5.619999999999999,"maeMean":5.619999999999999,"maeMedian":6,"low":8,"high":20,"coverage":true,"width":12,"pitLower":0.025,"pitUpper":0.095,"empiricalMass":0.07,"logScore":2.659260036932778},"recentPoisson":{"crps":1.5153500000000002,"mean":10.67,"median":11,"bias":2.67,"maeMean":2.67,"maeMedian":3,"low":6,"high":16,"coverage":true,"width":10,"pitLower":0.13,"pitUpper":0.23,"empiricalMass":0.1,"logScore":2.3025850929940455},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":3.1956500000000005,"mean":11.63,"median":4,"bias":3.630000000000001,"maeMean":3.630000000000001,"maeMedian":4,"low":0,"high":46,"coverage":true,"width":46,"pitLower":0.625,"pitUpper":0.65,"empiricalMass":0.025,"logScore":3.6888794541139363}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"2":0.01,"3":0.01,"4":0.035,"5":0.035,"6":0.04,"7":0.03,"8":0.075,"9":0.05,"10":0.04,"11":0.07,"12":0.03,"13":0.06,"14":0.075,"15":0.045,"16":0.04,"17":0.05,"18":0.035,"19":0.03,"20":0.02,"21":0.03,"22":0.025,"23":0.02,"24":0.025,"26":0.01,"27":0.025,"28":0.01,"29":0.005,"30":0.005,"35":0.005,"36":0.01,"37":0.005,"38":0.01,"39":0.005,"40":0.005,"41":0.005,"42":0.005,"48":0.005,"51":0.005,"61":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"2":0.005,"4":0.04,"5":0.02,"6":0.04,"7":0.065,"8":0.06,"9":0.045,"10":0.03,"11":0.04,"12":0.065,"13":0.04,"14":0.05,"15":0.025,"16":0.045,"17":0.015,"18":0.045,"19":0.02,"20":0.025,"21":0.03,"22":0.025,"23":0.015,"24":0.045,"25":0.015,"26":0.01,"27":0.005,"28":0.01,"29":0.02,"30":0.01,"31":0.01,"32":0.015,"35":0.015,"39":0.005,"40":0.01,"43":0.015,"44":0.005,"46":0.01,"47":0.005,"48":0.005,"52":0.005,"57":0.005,"64":0.005,"72":0.005,"73":0.005,"84":0.005,"101":0.005,"112":0.005,"127":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"2":0.015,"3":0.01,"4":0.015,"5":0.005,"6":0.035,"7":0.03,"8":0.075,"9":0.06,"10":0.05,"11":0.04,"12":0.035,"13":0.06,"14":0.07,"15":0.055,"16":0.045,"17":0.025,"18":0.035,"19":0.02,"20":0.02,"21":0.035,"22":0.02,"23":0.03,"24":0.03,"26":0.01,"27":0.025,"29":0.015,"30":0.01,"31":0.01,"33":0.015,"34":0.005,"35":0.005,"38":0.02,"41":0.005,"45":0.005,"46":0.015,"47":0.01,"48":0.005,"49":0.005,"51":0.005,"52":0.005,"55":0.005,"56":0.005,"69":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"6":0.01,"7":0.015,"8":0.07,"9":0.05,"10":0.055,"11":0.085,"12":0.115,"13":0.09,"14":0.11,"15":0.12,"16":0.065,"17":0.085,"18":0.05,"19":0.02,"20":0.015,"21":0.015,"22":0.01,"23":0.01,"24":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"4":0.01,"5":0.025,"6":0.055,"7":0.04,"8":0.1,"9":0.14,"10":0.125,"11":0.145,"12":0.11,"13":0.07,"14":0.06,"15":0.055,"16":0.035,"17":0.02,"18":0.005,"21":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.265,"1":0.08,"2":0.085,"3":0.065,"4":0.045,"5":0.02,"6":0.055,"7":0.01,"8":0.025,"9":0.025,"10":0.02,"11":0.01,"12":0.015,"13":0.01,"14":0.015,"15":0.015,"16":0.015,"17":0.015,"18":0.015,"19":0.015,"20":0.005,"21":0.015,"22":0.005,"23":0.01,"25":0.005,"26":0.005,"27":0.015,"29":0.01,"30":0.01,"31":0.005,"34":0.005,"35":0.005,"37":0.005,"42":0.005,"43":0.005,"44":0.005,"45":0.01,"46":0.005,"51":0.005,"54":0.005,"59":0.005,"63":0.005,"65":0.005,"67":0.005,"68":0.005,"97":0.005,"126":0.005,"142":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1572220800000,"validUntil":1572825600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":3,"actual":1,"trainingCount":4235,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2019","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.394425,"mean":1.855,"median":1,"bias":0.855,"maeMean":0.855,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":6,"coverage":true,"width":6,"pitLower":0.28,"pitUpper":0.54,"empiricalMass":0.26,"logScore":1.3470736479666092},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.6071,"mean":2.67,"median":2,"bias":1.67,"maeMean":1.67,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":8,"coverage":true,"width":8,"pitLower":0.23,"pitUpper":0.475,"empiricalMass":0.245,"logScore":1.40649706843741},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.550575,"mean":2.265,"median":2,"bias":1.2650000000000001,"maeMean":1.2650000000000001,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":6,"coverage":true,"width":6,"pitLower":0.215,"pitUpper":0.45,"empiricalMass":0.235,"logScore":1.448169764837978},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.4598,"mean":1.93,"median":2,"bias":0.9299999999999999,"maeMean":0.9299999999999999,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.14,"pitUpper":0.44,"empiricalMass":0.3,"logScore":1.2039728043259361},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.5624,"mean":2.03,"median":2,"bias":1.0299999999999998,"maeMean":1.0299999999999998,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.115,"pitUpper":0.355,"empiricalMass":0.24,"logScore":1.4271163556401458},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.5162499999999999,"mean":1.79,"median":0,"bias":0.79,"maeMean":0.79,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":8,"coverage":true,"width":8,"pitLower":0.58,"pitUpper":0.72,"empiricalMass":0.14,"logScore":1.9661128563728327}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.28,"1":0.26,"2":0.205,"3":0.105,"4":0.045,"5":0.05,"6":0.02,"7":0.005,"8":0.01,"9":0.005,"10":0.005,"11":0.01},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.23,"1":0.245,"2":0.145,"3":0.13,"4":0.07,"5":0.05,"6":0.025,"7":0.035,"8":0.03,"9":0.005,"10":0.01,"14":0.005,"16":0.01,"18":0.005,"23":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.215,"1":0.235,"2":0.2,"3":0.135,"4":0.07,"5":0.05,"6":0.05,"7":0.025,"8":0.005,"9":0.005,"13":0.005,"14":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.14,"1":0.3,"2":0.23,"3":0.205,"4":0.08,"5":0.04,"7":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.115,"1":0.24,"2":0.305,"3":0.21,"4":0.105,"5":0.02,"6":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.58,"1":0.14,"2":0.07,"3":0.075,"4":0.02,"5":0.025,"6":0.02,"7":0.015,"8":0.01,"10":0.015,"13":0.005,"14":0.005,"16":0.005,"19":0.005,"27":0.005,"36":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1572220800000,"validUntil":1572825600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4235,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2019","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.015875,"mean":0.175,"median":0,"bias":0.175,"maeMean":0.175,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.88,"empiricalMass":0.88,"logScore":0.12783337150988489},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.06272500000000003,"mean":0.395,"median":0,"bias":0.395,"maeMean":0.395,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.765,"empiricalMass":0.765,"logScore":0.2678794451556012},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.05704999999999999,"mean":0.29,"median":0,"bias":0.29,"maeMean":0.29,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.765,"empiricalMass":0.765,"logScore":0.2678794451556012},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.04225000000000001,"mean":0.22,"median":0,"bias":0.22,"maeMean":0.22,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.795,"empiricalMass":0.795,"logScore":0.2294131643278051},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.034324999999999994,"mean":0.195,"median":0,"bias":0.195,"maeMean":0.195,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.815,"empiricalMass":0.815,"logScore":0.2045671657412744},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.03115000000000001,"mean":0.23,"median":0,"bias":0.23,"maeMean":0.23,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.83,"empiricalMass":0.83,"logScore":0.18632957819149348}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.88,"1":0.085,"2":0.02,"3":0.01,"4":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.765,"1":0.16,"2":0.045,"3":0.005,"4":0.01,"5":0.005,"6":0.005,"7":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.765,"1":0.195,"2":0.025,"3":0.015},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.795,"1":0.19,"2":0.015},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.815,"1":0.175,"2":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.83,"1":0.125,"2":0.03,"3":0.015}}},{"issuedAt":1572220800000,"validUntil":1574812800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":2,"actual":40,"trainingCount":4235,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2019","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":20.140375,"mean":77.765,"median":70,"bias":37.765,"maeMean":37.765,"maeMedian":30,"low":40,"high":154,"coverage":true,"width":114,"pitLower":0.045,"pitUpper":0.075,"empiricalMass":0.03,"logScore":3.506557897319982},"rollingETAS":{"crps":18.269374999999997,"mean":76.355,"median":66,"bias":36.355000000000004,"maeMean":36.355000000000004,"maeMedian":26,"low":34,"high":151,"coverage":true,"width":117,"pitLower":0.095,"pitUpper":0.095,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":19.588675,"mean":75.875,"median":69,"bias":35.875,"maeMean":35.875,"maeMedian":29,"low":38,"high":135,"coverage":true,"width":97,"pitLower":0.07,"pitUpper":0.08,"empiricalMass":0.01,"logScore":4.605170185988091},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":15.541574999999998,"mean":59.525,"median":59.5,"bias":19.525,"maeMean":19.525,"maeMedian":19.5,"low":48,"high":71,"coverage":false,"width":23,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.005,"empiricalMass":0.005,"logScore":5.298317366548036},"recentPoisson":{"crps":2.456525,"mean":44.235,"median":44,"bias":4.234999999999999,"maeMean":4.234999999999999,"maeMedian":4,"low":35,"high":55,"coverage":true,"width":20,"pitLower":0.235,"pitUpper":0.33,"empiricalMass":0.095,"logScore":2.353878387381596},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":5.744774999999999,"mean":37.915,"median":34,"bias":-2.085000000000001,"maeMean":2.085000000000001,"maeMedian":6,"low":8,"high":80,"coverage":true,"width":72,"pitLower":0.62,"pitUpper":0.635,"empiricalMass":0.015,"logScore":4.199705077879927}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"30":0.01,"31":0.005,"34":0.005,"35":0.005,"36":0.005,"37":0.005,"38":0.005,"39":0.005,"40":0.03,"42":0.025,"43":0.01,"44":0.025,"45":0.005,"46":0.005,"47":0.01,"49":0.025,"50":0.01,"51":0.015,"53":0.015,"54":0.015,"55":0.01,"56":0.015,"57":0.03,"58":0.04,"59":0.02,"60":0.01,"61":0.015,"62":0.03,"63":0.005,"64":0.015,"65":0.01,"66":0.025,"67":0.01,"68":0.01,"69":0.015,"70":0.025,"71":0.01,"72":0.02,"73":0.02,"74":0.015,"75":0.02,"76":0.005,"77":0.015,"78":0.01,"79":0.01,"80":0.015,"81":0.01,"83":0.02,"84":0.015,"85":0.005,"86":0.01,"87":0.015,"88":0.01,"89":0.015,"90":0.005,"91":0.005,"93":0.015,"95":0.01,"96":0.005,"97":0.005,"99":0.01,"100":0.005,"101":0.015,"104":0.015,"106":0.005,"108":0.01,"110":0.005,"111":0.01,"112":0.005,"119":0.005,"120":0.01,"125":0.005,"129":0.005,"131":0.01,"132":0.01,"134":0.005,"135":0.005,"145":0.005,"154":0.005,"155":0.005,"156":0.005,"166":0.005,"172":0.005,"178":0.005,"180":0.005,"188":0.005,"226":0.01,"258":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"24":0.01,"28":0.005,"29":0.005,"32":0.01,"33":0.005,"34":0.02,"37":0.015,"38":0.01,"39":0.015,"41":0.01,"42":0.005,"43":0.015,"44":0.015,"45":0.015,"46":0.01,"47":0.005,"48":0.015,"49":0.025,"50":0.025,"51":0.005,"52":0.025,"53":0.01,"54":0.03,"55":0.01,"56":0.01,"57":0.03,"58":0.025,"59":0.02,"60":0.02,"61":0.005,"62":0.01,"63":0.01,"64":0.03,"65":0.015,"66":0.02,"67":0.015,"68":0.01,"69":0.01,"70":0.02,"71":0.02,"73":0.01,"74":0.01,"75":0.01,"76":0.02,"77":0.02,"78":0.005,"79":0.005,"80":0.01,"81":0.025,"82":0.01,"83":0.005,"84":0.005,"86":0.005,"87":0.01,"89":0.01,"90":0.01,"91":0.005,"93":0.015,"94":0.01,"95":0.01,"96":0.005,"97":0.01,"98":0.01,"99":0.005,"100":0.005,"102":0.005,"103":0.005,"104":0.005,"110":0.005,"111":0.005,"112":0.005,"113":0.005,"116":0.01,"119":0.005,"121":0.005,"122":0.005,"124":0.005,"126":0.01,"130":0.01,"131":0.01,"133":0.005,"135":0.005,"142":0.005,"147":0.005,"151":0.005,"156":0.005,"158":0.005,"167":0.01,"168":0.005,"169":0.005,"171":0.005,"222":0.005,"229":0.005,"345":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"23":0.005,"27":0.005,"30":0.005,"31":0.01,"33":0.01,"37":0.005,"38":0.01,"39":0.02,"40":0.01,"41":0.01,"42":0.005,"43":0.02,"44":0.005,"45":0.03,"46":0.005,"47":0.025,"48":0.01,"49":0.02,"50":0.015,"51":0.005,"52":0.025,"53":0.005,"54":0.01,"55":0.015,"56":0.01,"57":0.025,"58":0.03,"59":0.02,"60":0.005,"61":0.01,"62":0.01,"63":0.02,"64":0.025,"65":0.01,"66":0.025,"67":0.005,"68":0.01,"69":0.015,"70":0.01,"71":0.01,"72":0.005,"73":0.01,"74":0.01,"75":0.02,"76":0.005,"77":0.01,"78":0.02,"79":0.01,"80":0.01,"81":0.015,"82":0.02,"83":0.01,"84":0.02,"85":0.005,"87":0.01,"88":0.015,"89":0.01,"90":0.005,"91":0.015,"92":0.005,"93":0.02,"95":0.02,"96":0.005,"97":0.01,"98":0.01,"99":0.005,"100":0.02,"103":0.005,"104":0.005,"108":0.01,"109":0.01,"111":0.005,"112":0.01,"113":0.005,"114":0.005,"115":0.005,"116":0.005,"118":0.005,"119":0.01,"128":0.005,"130":0.005,"131":0.005,"133":0.005,"135":0.005,"140":0.005,"151":0.005,"154":0.005,"156":0.005,"162":0.005,"164":0.005,"166":0.005,"170":0.005,"214":0.005,"221":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"40":0.005,"41":0.005,"43":0.005,"44":0.005,"45":0.005,"46":0.005,"47":0.01,"48":0.01,"49":0.025,"50":0.015,"51":0.025,"52":0.025,"53":0.05,"54":0.05,"55":0.055,"56":0.04,"57":0.08,"58":0.055,"59":0.03,"60":0.06,"61":0.05,"62":0.06,"63":0.05,"64":0.04,"65":0.055,"66":0.04,"67":0.02,"68":0.015,"69":0.02,"70":0.015,"71":0.03,"72":0.01,"73":0.005,"74":0.01,"75":0.005,"77":0.005,"78":0.005,"81":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"27":0.005,"28":0.005,"30":0.01,"32":0.005,"33":0.005,"34":0.015,"35":0.035,"36":0.04,"37":0.03,"38":0.025,"39":0.06,"40":0.095,"41":0.04,"42":0.03,"43":0.05,"44":0.075,"45":0.075,"46":0.03,"47":0.055,"48":0.05,"49":0.035,"50":0.06,"51":0.035,"52":0.03,"53":0.03,"54":0.02,"55":0.02,"56":0.01,"58":0.01,"59":0.005,"60":0.005,"61":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"2":0.005,"4":0.005,"5":0.02,"7":0.01,"8":0.02,"9":0.01,"10":0.02,"11":0.01,"12":0.005,"14":0.015,"15":0.01,"16":0.005,"17":0.025,"18":0.02,"19":0.03,"20":0.05,"21":0.01,"22":0.02,"23":0.01,"24":0.01,"25":0.03,"26":0.025,"27":0.02,"28":0.02,"29":0.03,"30":0.02,"31":0.005,"32":0.015,"33":0.02,"34":0.01,"35":0.03,"36":0.025,"37":0.015,"38":0.015,"39":0.03,"40":0.015,"41":0.03,"42":0.015,"43":0.01,"44":0.015,"45":0.015,"46":0.01,"47":0.005,"48":0.01,"49":0.02,"50":0.015,"52":0.01,"54":0.01,"56":0.005,"57":0.005,"59":0.005,"60":0.01,"61":0.005,"62":0.005,"63":0.005,"64":0.01,"66":0.015,"67":0.01,"68":0.005,"69":0.01,"70":0.02,"71":0.005,"72":0.01,"74":0.005,"75":0.005,"76":0.005,"78":0.005,"80":0.01,"82":0.005,"83":0.005,"90":0.005,"92":0.01,"105":0.005,"111":0.005,"112":0.005,"159":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1572220800000,"validUntil":1574812800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":3,"actual":4,"trainingCount":4235,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2019","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":2.5869000000000004,"mean":9.44,"median":8,"bias":5.4399999999999995,"maeMean":5.4399999999999995,"maeMedian":4,"low":2,"high":23,"coverage":true,"width":21,"pitLower":0.115,"pitUpper":0.21,"empiricalMass":0.095,"logScore":2.353878387381596},"rollingETAS":{"crps":3.0576250000000003,"mean":10.125,"median":9,"bias":6.125,"maeMean":6.125,"maeMedian":5,"low":2,"high":21,"coverage":true,"width":19,"pitLower":0.115,"pitUpper":0.18,"empiricalMass":0.065,"logScore":2.7333680090865},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":2.4625749999999997,"mean":9.115,"median":8,"bias":5.115,"maeMean":5.115,"maeMedian":4,"low":2,"high":19,"coverage":true,"width":17,"pitLower":0.13,"pitUpper":0.235,"empiricalMass":0.105,"logScore":2.2537949288246137},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":2.661625,"mean":8.275,"median":8,"bias":4.275,"maeMean":4.275,"maeMedian":4,"low":4,"high":13,"coverage":true,"width":9,"pitLower":0.025,"pitUpper":0.09,"empiricalMass":0.065,"logScore":2.7333680090865},"recentPoisson":{"crps":2.4771,"mean":7.94,"median":8,"bias":3.9400000000000004,"maeMean":3.9400000000000004,"maeMedian":4,"low":3,"high":13,"coverage":true,"width":10,"pitLower":0.06,"pitUpper":0.11,"empiricalMass":0.05,"logScore":2.995732273553991},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":1.7755,"mean":8.06,"median":6,"bias":4.0600000000000005,"maeMean":4.0600000000000005,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":21,"coverage":true,"width":21,"pitLower":0.34,"pitUpper":0.425,"empiricalMass":0.085,"logScore":2.4651040224918206}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.005,"1":0.01,"2":0.04,"3":0.06,"4":0.095,"5":0.07,"6":0.095,"7":0.075,"8":0.095,"9":0.05,"10":0.065,"11":0.07,"12":0.045,"13":0.03,"14":0.06,"15":0.015,"16":0.015,"17":0.015,"18":0.01,"20":0.005,"21":0.005,"22":0.01,"23":0.01,"24":0.005,"25":0.005,"26":0.02,"29":0.005,"31":0.005,"32":0.005,"33":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.01,"1":0.02,"2":0.02,"3":0.065,"4":0.065,"5":0.065,"6":0.07,"7":0.075,"8":0.085,"9":0.075,"10":0.075,"11":0.055,"12":0.045,"13":0.05,"14":0.06,"15":0.02,"16":0.02,"17":0.01,"18":0.02,"19":0.02,"20":0.01,"21":0.015,"23":0.005,"24":0.01,"25":0.005,"26":0.005,"27":0.005,"30":0.005,"41":0.005,"43":0.005,"48":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.005,"1":0.02,"2":0.035,"3":0.07,"4":0.105,"5":0.075,"6":0.085,"7":0.085,"8":0.055,"9":0.06,"10":0.065,"11":0.045,"12":0.05,"13":0.055,"14":0.04,"15":0.035,"16":0.03,"17":0.01,"18":0.005,"19":0.02,"20":0.005,"21":0.005,"23":0.01,"26":0.01,"27":0.005,"28":0.005,"29":0.005,"31":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"2":0.005,"3":0.02,"4":0.065,"5":0.13,"6":0.105,"7":0.09,"8":0.105,"9":0.135,"10":0.13,"11":0.07,"12":0.06,"13":0.045,"14":0.01,"15":0.015,"16":0.015},"recentPoisson":{"2":0.01,"3":0.05,"4":0.05,"5":0.095,"6":0.125,"7":0.115,"8":0.16,"9":0.11,"10":0.1,"11":0.06,"12":0.06,"13":0.04,"14":0.005,"15":0.02},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.06,"1":0.085,"2":0.115,"3":0.08,"4":0.085,"5":0.03,"6":0.095,"7":0.045,"8":0.055,"9":0.025,"10":0.035,"11":0.035,"12":0.02,"13":0.04,"14":0.035,"15":0.015,"16":0.025,"17":0.015,"18":0.015,"19":0.01,"20":0.02,"21":0.01,"23":0.01,"24":0.005,"25":0.005,"27":0.005,"28":0.005,"31":0.01,"43":0.005,"51":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1572220800000,"validUntil":1574812800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4235,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2019","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.45604999999999996,"mean":1.2,"median":1,"bias":1.2,"maeMean":1.2,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.435,"empiricalMass":0.435,"logScore":0.8324092478934529},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.53425,"mean":1.27,"median":1,"bias":1.27,"maeMean":1.27,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.37,"empiricalMass":0.37,"logScore":0.9942522733438669},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.4535499999999999,"mean":1.13,"median":1,"bias":1.13,"maeMean":1.13,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.415,"empiricalMass":0.415,"logScore":0.8794767587514388},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.4804249999999999,"mean":1.025,"median":1,"bias":1.025,"maeMean":1.025,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.37,"empiricalMass":0.37,"logScore":0.9942522733438669},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.41490000000000005,"mean":0.91,"median":1,"bias":0.91,"maeMean":0.91,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.405,"empiricalMass":0.405,"logScore":0.9038682118755978},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.3851,"mean":0.87,"median":1,"bias":0.87,"maeMean":0.87,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.42,"empiricalMass":0.42,"logScore":0.8675005677047231}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.435,"1":0.25,"2":0.15,"3":0.075,"4":0.045,"5":0.03,"6":0.01,"7":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.37,"1":0.31,"2":0.155,"3":0.095,"4":0.025,"5":0.025,"7":0.02},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.415,"1":0.295,"2":0.14,"3":0.085,"4":0.05,"6":0.01,"8":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.37,"1":0.355,"2":0.19,"3":0.06,"4":0.02,"6":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.405,"1":0.355,"2":0.185,"3":0.04,"4":0.01,"5":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.42,"1":0.365,"2":0.17,"3":0.025,"4":0.015,"6":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1574812800000,"validUntil":1574899200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":2,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4275,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2019","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.9949999999999999,"mean":2.07,"median":2,"bias":2.07,"maeMean":2.07,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":6,"coverage":true,"width":6,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.25,"empiricalMass":0.25,"logScore":1.3862943611198906},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.7640750000000001,"mean":1.725,"median":1,"bias":1.725,"maeMean":1.725,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.315,"empiricalMass":0.315,"logScore":1.155182640156504},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.8920750000000002,"mean":2.115,"median":1,"bias":2.115,"maeMean":2.115,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":7,"coverage":true,"width":7,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.275,"empiricalMass":0.275,"logScore":1.2909841813155656},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":1.2237,"mean":1.98,"median":2,"bias":1.98,"maeMean":1.98,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.115,"empiricalMass":0.115,"logScore":2.162823150618887},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.8344,"mean":1.55,"median":1,"bias":1.55,"maeMean":1.55,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.23,"empiricalMass":0.23,"logScore":1.4696759700589417},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.25344999999999995,"mean":1.39,"median":0,"bias":1.39,"maeMean":1.39,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":7,"coverage":true,"width":7,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.665,"empiricalMass":0.665,"logScore":0.4079682383262829}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.25,"1":0.21,"2":0.235,"3":0.13,"4":0.07,"5":0.045,"6":0.03,"8":0.01,"9":0.005,"10":0.01,"18":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.315,"1":0.22,"2":0.225,"3":0.12,"4":0.06,"5":0.02,"6":0.02,"8":0.005,"9":0.005,"11":0.005,"19":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.275,"1":0.25,"2":0.19,"3":0.11,"4":0.055,"5":0.035,"6":0.025,"7":0.025,"8":0.005,"9":0.005,"10":0.01,"11":0.005,"18":0.005,"21":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.115,"1":0.325,"2":0.245,"3":0.16,"4":0.095,"5":0.055,"6":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.23,"1":0.345,"2":0.2,"3":0.13,"4":0.06,"5":0.035},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.665,"1":0.08,"2":0.085,"3":0.04,"4":0.025,"5":0.02,"6":0.02,"7":0.02,"8":0.005,"10":0.005,"11":0.005,"12":0.015,"13":0.005,"16":0.005,"18":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1574812800000,"validUntil":1574899200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":3,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4275,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2019","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.03724999999999998,"mean":0.24,"median":0,"bias":0.24,"maeMean":0.24,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.815,"empiricalMass":0.815,"logScore":0.2045671657412744},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.014875,"mean":0.155,"median":0,"bias":0.155,"maeMean":0.155,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.88,"empiricalMass":0.88,"logScore":0.12783337150988489},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.04087500000000002,"mean":0.275,"median":0,"bias":0.275,"maeMean":0.275,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.805,"empiricalMass":0.805,"logScore":0.21691300156357363},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.06312500000000001,"mean":0.275,"median":0,"bias":0.275,"maeMean":0.275,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.75,"empiricalMass":0.75,"logScore":0.2876820724517809},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.05585000000000001,"mean":0.26,"median":0,"bias":0.26,"maeMean":0.26,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.765,"empiricalMass":0.765,"logScore":0.2678794451556012},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.016274999999999984,"mean":0.245,"median":0,"bias":0.245,"maeMean":0.245,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.895,"empiricalMass":0.895,"logScore":0.11093156070728166}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.815,"1":0.13,"2":0.055},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.88,"1":0.105,"3":0.01,"4":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.805,"1":0.145,"2":0.035,"3":0.005,"4":0.005,"5":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.75,"1":0.225,"2":0.025},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.765,"1":0.21,"2":0.025},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.895,"1":0.045,"2":0.025,"3":0.02,"4":0.005,"5":0.005,"9":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1574812800000,"validUntil":1574899200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4275,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2019","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.0002500000000000002,"mean":0.02,"median":0,"bias":0.02,"maeMean":0.02,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.985,"empiricalMass":0.985,"logScore":0.015113637810048184},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.0002249999999999995,"mean":0.015,"median":0,"bias":0.015,"maeMean":0.015,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.985,"empiricalMass":0.985,"logScore":0.015113637810048184},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.00040000000000000105,"mean":0.02,"median":0,"bias":0.02,"maeMean":0.02,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.98,"empiricalMass":0.98,"logScore":0.020202707317519466},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.00040000000000000105,"mean":0.02,"median":0,"bias":0.02,"maeMean":0.02,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.98,"empiricalMass":0.98,"logScore":0.020202707317519466},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.000899999999999998,"mean":0.03,"median":0,"bias":0.03,"maeMean":0.03,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.97,"empiricalMass":0.97,"logScore":0.030459207484708574},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.00002499999999999985,"mean":0.005,"median":0,"bias":0.005,"maeMean":0.005,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.995,"empiricalMass":0.995,"logScore":0.005012541823544286}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.985,"1":0.01,"2":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.985,"1":0.015},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.98,"1":0.02},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.98,"1":0.02},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.97,"1":0.03},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.995,"1":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1574812800000,"validUntil":1575417600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":2,"actual":10,"trainingCount":4275,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2019","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":2.190225,"mean":14.785,"median":12,"bias":4.785,"maeMean":4.785,"maeMedian":2,"low":4,"high":35,"coverage":true,"width":31,"pitLower":0.315,"pitUpper":0.39,"empiricalMass":0.075,"logScore":2.5902671654458267},"rollingETAS":{"crps":1.9179250000000003,"mean":14.625,"median":11,"bias":4.625,"maeMean":4.625,"maeMedian":1,"low":4,"high":41,"coverage":true,"width":37,"pitLower":0.395,"pitUpper":0.465,"empiricalMass":0.07,"logScore":2.659260036932778},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":2.2655250000000002,"mean":14.605,"median":13,"bias":4.605,"maeMean":4.605,"maeMedian":3,"low":4,"high":34,"coverage":true,"width":30,"pitLower":0.33,"pitUpper":0.375,"empiricalMass":0.045,"logScore":3.101092789211817},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":2.1390750000000005,"mean":13.625,"median":13,"bias":3.625,"maeMean":3.625,"maeMedian":3,"low":7,"high":19,"coverage":true,"width":12,"pitLower":0.135,"pitUpper":0.2,"empiricalMass":0.065,"logScore":2.7333680090865},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.6805750000000002,"mean":10.165,"median":10,"bias":0.16499999999999915,"maeMean":0.16499999999999915,"maeMedian":0,"low":5,"high":15,"coverage":true,"width":10,"pitLower":0.44,"pitUpper":0.595,"empiricalMass":0.155,"logScore":1.8643301620628905},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":3.4595249999999993,"mean":9.505,"median":4,"bias":-0.4949999999999992,"maeMean":0.4949999999999992,"maeMedian":6,"low":0,"high":34,"coverage":true,"width":34,"pitLower":0.685,"pitUpper":0.7,"empiricalMass":0.015,"logScore":4.199705077879927}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"1":0.02,"2":0.01,"3":0.015,"4":0.045,"5":0.06,"6":0.03,"7":0.045,"8":0.04,"9":0.05,"10":0.075,"11":0.045,"12":0.09,"13":0.015,"14":0.065,"15":0.035,"16":0.05,"17":0.03,"18":0.035,"19":0.02,"20":0.03,"21":0.035,"22":0.01,"23":0.025,"25":0.01,"26":0.005,"27":0.01,"28":0.01,"30":0.01,"31":0.01,"32":0.005,"34":0.005,"35":0.01,"36":0.015,"38":0.005,"39":0.005,"42":0.005,"48":0.005,"49":0.005,"65":0.005,"77":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"1":0.01,"2":0.01,"3":0.015,"4":0.045,"5":0.08,"6":0.055,"7":0.06,"8":0.05,"9":0.07,"10":0.07,"11":0.05,"12":0.04,"13":0.06,"14":0.045,"15":0.055,"16":0.045,"17":0.02,"18":0.015,"19":0.01,"20":0.03,"22":0.015,"23":0.01,"24":0.005,"25":0.015,"26":0.005,"27":0.005,"28":0.015,"31":0.005,"32":0.01,"35":0.005,"36":0.005,"37":0.005,"39":0.01,"41":0.01,"42":0.005,"43":0.005,"44":0.005,"45":0.005,"58":0.005,"60":0.005,"62":0.005,"68":0.005,"88":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.005,"1":0.005,"2":0.02,"3":0.015,"4":0.045,"5":0.04,"6":0.06,"7":0.05,"8":0.05,"9":0.04,"10":0.045,"11":0.05,"12":0.045,"13":0.055,"14":0.07,"15":0.055,"16":0.06,"17":0.04,"18":0.015,"19":0.02,"20":0.035,"21":0.02,"22":0.01,"23":0.015,"24":0.005,"25":0.01,"26":0.01,"27":0.015,"28":0.015,"29":0.005,"30":0.015,"31":0.005,"34":0.015,"35":0.005,"37":0.005,"39":0.005,"44":0.005,"47":0.005,"56":0.005,"57":0.005,"68":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"5":0.01,"6":0.005,"7":0.035,"8":0.025,"9":0.06,"10":0.065,"11":0.095,"12":0.085,"13":0.135,"14":0.075,"15":0.085,"16":0.095,"17":0.085,"18":0.075,"19":0.03,"20":0.01,"21":0.01,"22":0.005,"23":0.01,"26":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"2":0.005,"3":0.005,"4":0.025,"5":0.025,"6":0.03,"7":0.1,"8":0.115,"9":0.135,"10":0.155,"11":0.1,"12":0.095,"13":0.035,"14":0.08,"15":0.045,"16":0.015,"17":0.02,"18":0.01,"20":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.19,"1":0.11,"2":0.09,"3":0.075,"4":0.06,"5":0.045,"6":0.035,"7":0.02,"8":0.045,"9":0.015,"10":0.015,"11":0.025,"12":0.02,"13":0.015,"14":0.02,"15":0.02,"16":0.005,"18":0.01,"19":0.02,"20":0.015,"21":0.01,"22":0.005,"23":0.005,"24":0.005,"25":0.01,"26":0.02,"28":0.005,"29":0.01,"30":0.005,"31":0.015,"32":0.005,"34":0.01,"35":0.005,"40":0.005,"43":0.005,"45":0.005,"48":0.005,"51":0.005,"59":0.005,"63":0.005,"102":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1574812800000,"validUntil":1575417600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":3,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4275,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2019","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.8401000000000001,"mean":1.81,"median":1,"bias":1.81,"maeMean":1.81,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.255,"empiricalMass":0.255,"logScore":1.3664917338237108},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.77335,"mean":1.91,"median":1,"bias":1.91,"maeMean":1.91,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":7,"coverage":true,"width":7,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.325,"empiricalMass":0.325,"logScore":1.1239300966523995},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.7477,"mean":1.75,"median":1,"bias":1.75,"maeMean":1.75,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":6,"coverage":true,"width":6,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.305,"empiricalMass":0.305,"logScore":1.1874435023747254},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":1.17665,"mean":1.97,"median":2,"bias":1.97,"maeMean":1.97,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.14,"empiricalMass":0.14,"logScore":1.9661128563728327},"recentPoisson":{"crps":1.108375,"mean":1.895,"median":2,"bias":1.895,"maeMean":1.895,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.18,"empiricalMass":0.18,"logScore":1.7147984280919266},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.38002500000000006,"mean":1.695,"median":0,"bias":1.695,"maeMean":1.695,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":8,"coverage":true,"width":8,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.585,"empiricalMass":0.585,"logScore":0.5361434317502807}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.255,"1":0.305,"2":0.21,"3":0.065,"4":0.08,"5":0.04,"6":0.015,"7":0.005,"8":0.01,"10":0.005,"11":0.005,"12":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.325,"1":0.23,"2":0.18,"3":0.1,"4":0.065,"5":0.025,"6":0.02,"7":0.01,"8":0.02,"9":0.005,"10":0.005,"12":0.005,"13":0.01},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.305,"1":0.295,"2":0.135,"3":0.13,"4":0.03,"5":0.045,"6":0.03,"7":0.01,"8":0.01,"10":0.005,"14":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.14,"1":0.29,"2":0.285,"3":0.12,"4":0.11,"5":0.03,"6":0.02,"8":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.18,"1":0.26,"2":0.245,"3":0.17,"4":0.1,"5":0.035,"6":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.585,"1":0.11,"2":0.08,"3":0.06,"4":0.04,"5":0.04,"6":0.02,"7":0.01,"8":0.01,"9":0.01,"11":0.015,"16":0.01,"19":0.005,"21":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1574812800000,"validUntil":1575417600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4275,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2019","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.023974999999999996,"mean":0.205,"median":0,"bias":0.205,"maeMean":0.205,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.85,"empiricalMass":0.85,"logScore":0.16251892949777494},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.03322499999999998,"mean":0.235,"median":0,"bias":0.235,"maeMean":0.235,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.825,"empiricalMass":0.825,"logScore":0.19237189264745613},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.033049999999999996,"mean":0.21,"median":0,"bias":0.21,"maeMean":0.21,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.82,"empiricalMass":0.82,"logScore":0.19845093872383832},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.04039999999999999,"mean":0.22,"median":0,"bias":0.22,"maeMean":0.22,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.8,"empiricalMass":0.8,"logScore":0.2231435513142097},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.033324999999999994,"mean":0.215,"median":0,"bias":0.215,"maeMean":0.215,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.82,"empiricalMass":0.82,"logScore":0.19845093872383832},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.055475,"mean":0.255,"median":0,"bias":0.255,"maeMean":0.255,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.765,"empiricalMass":0.765,"logScore":0.2678794451556012}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.85,"1":0.115,"2":0.02,"3":0.01,"4":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.825,"1":0.125,"2":0.04,"3":0.01},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.82,"1":0.155,"2":0.02,"3":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.8,"1":0.18,"2":0.02},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.82,"1":0.15,"2":0.025,"3":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.765,"1":0.22,"2":0.01,"3":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1574812800000,"validUntil":1577404800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":2,"actual":29,"trainingCount":4275,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2019","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":21.067999999999998,"mean":66.28,"median":57.5,"bias":37.28,"maeMean":37.28,"maeMedian":28.5,"low":32,"high":129,"coverage":false,"width":97,"pitLower":0.035,"pitUpper":0.035,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"rollingETAS":{"crps":23.420125,"mean":69.485,"median":60.5,"bias":40.485,"maeMean":40.485,"maeMedian":31.5,"low":32,"high":131,"coverage":false,"width":99,"pitLower":0.03,"pitUpper":0.035,"empiricalMass":0.005,"logScore":5.298317366548036},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":21.491975000000004,"mean":64.605,"median":59,"bias":35.605000000000004,"maeMean":35.605000000000004,"maeMedian":30,"low":32,"high":113,"coverage":false,"width":81,"pitLower":0.015,"pitUpper":0.03,"empiricalMass":0.015,"logScore":4.199705077879927},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":27.28285,"mean":60.2,"median":60,"bias":31.200000000000003,"maeMean":31.200000000000003,"maeMedian":31,"low":49,"high":71,"coverage":false,"width":22,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentPoisson":{"crps":11.784600000000001,"mean":44.46,"median":44,"bias":15.46,"maeMean":15.46,"maeMedian":15,"low":34,"high":56,"coverage":false,"width":22,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":7.513425000000002,"mean":43.335,"median":37,"bias":14.335,"maeMean":14.335,"maeMedian":8,"low":8,"high":101,"coverage":true,"width":93,"pitLower":0.385,"pitUpper":0.41,"empiricalMass":0.025,"logScore":3.6888794541139363}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"21":0.01,"24":0.005,"27":0.005,"28":0.015,"30":0.005,"31":0.005,"32":0.01,"33":0.02,"34":0.005,"35":0.015,"36":0.02,"37":0.02,"38":0.01,"39":0.02,"40":0.005,"41":0.015,"42":0.025,"43":0.01,"44":0.03,"46":0.035,"47":0.01,"48":0.03,"49":0.005,"50":0.025,"51":0.025,"52":0.02,"53":0.035,"54":0.03,"55":0.02,"56":0.005,"57":0.01,"58":0.015,"59":0.015,"60":0.01,"61":0.015,"62":0.01,"63":0.02,"64":0.035,"66":0.005,"67":0.01,"68":0.04,"69":0.01,"70":0.01,"73":0.005,"74":0.015,"75":0.015,"77":0.005,"78":0.025,"84":0.01,"85":0.015,"87":0.005,"88":0.01,"89":0.015,"90":0.005,"91":0.005,"92":0.005,"93":0.005,"94":0.005,"95":0.005,"96":0.015,"97":0.005,"99":0.01,"101":0.01,"103":0.005,"104":0.005,"106":0.005,"108":0.01,"112":0.01,"117":0.005,"118":0.005,"121":0.01,"123":0.005,"129":0.005,"131":0.01,"136":0.005,"152":0.005,"159":0.005,"160":0.005,"167":0.01,"180":0.005,"240":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"26":0.01,"27":0.005,"28":0.015,"29":0.005,"30":0.005,"31":0.005,"32":0.01,"33":0.005,"34":0.01,"35":0.015,"36":0.015,"37":0.005,"38":0.02,"39":0.015,"40":0.01,"41":0.005,"42":0.015,"43":0.015,"44":0.015,"45":0.005,"46":0.015,"47":0.015,"48":0.02,"49":0.03,"50":0.04,"51":0.005,"52":0.01,"53":0.005,"54":0.025,"55":0.025,"56":0.03,"57":0.02,"58":0.005,"59":0.025,"60":0.025,"61":0.02,"62":0.02,"63":0.02,"64":0.02,"65":0.01,"66":0.01,"67":0.015,"68":0.015,"69":0.005,"70":0.015,"71":0.02,"72":0.005,"73":0.005,"74":0.005,"75":0.015,"76":0.005,"77":0.005,"78":0.01,"79":0.015,"80":0.005,"81":0.005,"84":0.015,"85":0.015,"89":0.005,"92":0.005,"93":0.01,"94":0.02,"95":0.005,"96":0.01,"97":0.015,"98":0.01,"99":0.005,"101":0.005,"102":0.01,"103":0.005,"104":0.005,"106":0.005,"108":0.01,"109":0.005,"110":0.005,"111":0.005,"117":0.005,"118":0.005,"119":0.005,"120":0.005,"126":0.005,"129":0.005,"131":0.005,"136":0.005,"137":0.005,"153":0.005,"165":0.005,"170":0.005,"173":0.005,"175":0.005,"191":0.005,"194":0.005,"250":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"27":0.005,"28":0.01,"29":0.015,"32":0.02,"33":0.01,"34":0.01,"35":0.03,"36":0.015,"37":0.005,"38":0.025,"39":0.005,"40":0.005,"41":0.015,"42":0.01,"43":0.01,"44":0.02,"45":0.03,"46":0.02,"47":0.03,"48":0.015,"49":0.005,"50":0.03,"51":0.035,"52":0.01,"53":0.03,"54":0.03,"55":0.01,"56":0.025,"57":0.005,"58":0.01,"59":0.01,"60":0.005,"61":0.04,"62":0.01,"63":0.01,"64":0.01,"65":0.015,"66":0.025,"67":0.005,"68":0.015,"69":0.015,"70":0.02,"71":0.02,"73":0.005,"74":0.01,"75":0.005,"76":0.015,"77":0.01,"78":0.005,"79":0.005,"80":0.01,"81":0.02,"82":0.01,"83":0.015,"85":0.01,"86":0.015,"87":0.015,"88":0.005,"89":0.015,"90":0.01,"91":0.01,"93":0.01,"95":0.015,"96":0.005,"99":0.01,"105":0.005,"107":0.005,"108":0.01,"113":0.005,"115":0.01,"122":0.005,"130":0.005,"133":0.005,"147":0.005,"155":0.005,"166":0.005,"178":0.005,"185":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"40":0.005,"42":0.005,"44":0.01,"47":0.005,"48":0.01,"49":0.02,"50":0.025,"51":0.03,"52":0.03,"53":0.035,"54":0.03,"55":0.04,"56":0.035,"57":0.055,"58":0.055,"59":0.075,"60":0.055,"61":0.075,"62":0.03,"63":0.075,"64":0.05,"65":0.05,"66":0.035,"67":0.03,"68":0.015,"69":0.03,"70":0.02,"71":0.02,"72":0.02,"73":0.005,"76":0.005,"77":0.005,"79":0.005,"81":0.005,"84":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"31":0.01,"32":0.02,"33":0.005,"34":0.03,"35":0.02,"36":0.02,"37":0.03,"38":0.045,"39":0.03,"40":0.07,"41":0.065,"42":0.05,"43":0.08,"44":0.065,"45":0.06,"46":0.06,"47":0.06,"48":0.03,"49":0.035,"50":0.03,"51":0.02,"52":0.025,"53":0.015,"54":0.025,"55":0.045,"56":0.02,"57":0.015,"58":0.005,"59":0.005,"61":0.005,"62":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.005,"2":0.005,"3":0.005,"4":0.01,"5":0.01,"6":0.01,"8":0.015,"9":0.03,"10":0.01,"11":0.01,"12":0.015,"13":0.015,"14":0.005,"15":0.015,"16":0.015,"17":0.01,"18":0.015,"19":0.02,"20":0.02,"21":0.03,"22":0.01,"23":0.02,"24":0.015,"25":0.015,"26":0.005,"27":0.03,"28":0.02,"29":0.025,"30":0.025,"31":0.005,"32":0.005,"33":0.015,"34":0.01,"35":0.005,"36":0.01,"37":0.025,"38":0.02,"39":0.005,"40":0.015,"41":0.01,"42":0.02,"43":0.015,"44":0.005,"45":0.015,"46":0.01,"47":0.01,"48":0.015,"49":0.01,"50":0.005,"52":0.015,"53":0.005,"54":0.01,"55":0.02,"56":0.01,"58":0.005,"59":0.02,"60":0.02,"62":0.005,"63":0.005,"65":0.01,"66":0.005,"67":0.01,"68":0.005,"70":0.01,"71":0.015,"72":0.01,"73":0.015,"74":0.005,"75":0.005,"77":0.01,"78":0.01,"81":0.005,"83":0.005,"84":0.005,"87":0.015,"90":0.005,"93":0.005,"94":0.01,"97":0.005,"101":0.005,"103":0.005,"107":0.01,"117":0.005,"120":0.005,"123":0.005,"124":0.005,"143":0.005,"155":0.01}}},{"issuedAt":1574812800000,"validUntil":1577404800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":3,"actual":1,"trainingCount":4275,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2019","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":4.034425,"mean":8.125,"median":7,"bias":7.125,"maeMean":7.125,"maeMedian":6,"low":1,"high":20,"coverage":true,"width":19,"pitLower":0.005,"pitUpper":0.05,"empiricalMass":0.045,"logScore":3.101092789211817},"rollingETAS":{"crps":5.0653749999999995,"mean":9.285,"median":8,"bias":8.285,"maeMean":8.285,"maeMedian":7,"low":2,"high":20,"coverage":false,"width":18,"pitLower":0.005,"pitUpper":0.035,"empiricalMass":0.03,"logScore":3.506557897319982},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":4.1318,"mean":7.9,"median":7,"bias":6.9,"maeMean":6.9,"maeMedian":6,"low":2,"high":19,"coverage":false,"width":17,"pitLower":0.005,"pitUpper":0.04,"empiricalMass":0.035,"logScore":3.3524072174927233},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":5.524150000000001,"mean":7.98,"median":8,"bias":6.98,"maeMean":6.98,"maeMedian":7,"low":4,"high":12,"coverage":false,"width":8,"pitLower":0.005,"pitUpper":0.01,"empiricalMass":0.005,"logScore":5.298317366548036},"recentPoisson":{"crps":5.518575,"mean":8.195,"median":8,"bias":7.195,"maeMean":7.195,"maeMedian":7,"low":4,"high":13,"coverage":false,"width":9,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.01,"empiricalMass":0.01,"logScore":4.605170185988091},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":3.6636499999999996,"mean":8.38,"median":7,"bias":7.380000000000001,"maeMean":7.380000000000001,"maeMedian":6,"low":0,"high":21,"coverage":true,"width":21,"pitLower":0.085,"pitUpper":0.16,"empiricalMass":0.075,"logScore":2.5902671654458267}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.005,"1":0.045,"2":0.09,"3":0.095,"4":0.085,"5":0.075,"6":0.065,"7":0.06,"8":0.11,"9":0.07,"10":0.035,"11":0.045,"12":0.035,"13":0.03,"14":0.02,"15":0.03,"16":0.02,"17":0.02,"18":0.005,"19":0.005,"20":0.01,"21":0.02,"23":0.005,"25":0.005,"31":0.01,"36":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.005,"1":0.03,"2":0.02,"3":0.075,"4":0.06,"5":0.095,"6":0.105,"7":0.08,"8":0.09,"9":0.07,"10":0.07,"11":0.045,"12":0.04,"13":0.015,"14":0.03,"15":0.025,"16":0.04,"17":0.02,"18":0.005,"19":0.025,"20":0.005,"21":0.005,"23":0.005,"24":0.005,"27":0.01,"30":0.01,"33":0.005,"34":0.005,"36":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.005,"1":0.035,"2":0.06,"3":0.08,"4":0.115,"5":0.11,"6":0.065,"7":0.105,"8":0.055,"9":0.055,"10":0.05,"11":0.085,"12":0.035,"13":0.015,"14":0.02,"15":0.025,"16":0.01,"17":0.005,"18":0.005,"19":0.02,"20":0.01,"21":0.01,"22":0.01,"23":0.005,"26":0.005,"28":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.005,"1":0.005,"2":0.005,"3":0.02,"4":0.055,"5":0.095,"6":0.105,"7":0.12,"8":0.16,"9":0.15,"10":0.12,"11":0.075,"12":0.045,"13":0.025,"14":0.005,"15":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"1":0.01,"3":0.035,"4":0.04,"5":0.085,"6":0.145,"7":0.13,"8":0.135,"9":0.12,"10":0.09,"11":0.065,"12":0.055,"13":0.04,"14":0.03,"15":0.005,"16":0.005,"18":0.005,"19":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.085,"1":0.075,"2":0.06,"3":0.085,"4":0.08,"5":0.07,"6":0.035,"7":0.05,"8":0.055,"9":0.06,"10":0.035,"11":0.015,"12":0.01,"13":0.045,"14":0.05,"15":0.05,"16":0.015,"17":0.015,"18":0.025,"19":0.015,"20":0.01,"21":0.02,"23":0.005,"24":0.01,"26":0.005,"31":0.01,"34":0.005,"47":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1574812800000,"validUntil":1577404800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4275,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2019","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.30762500000000004,"mean":0.905,"median":0.5,"bias":0.905,"maeMean":0.905,"maeMedian":0.5,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.5,"empiricalMass":0.5,"logScore":0.6931471805599453},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.437875,"mean":1.135,"median":1,"bias":1.135,"maeMean":1.135,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.43,"empiricalMass":0.43,"logScore":0.843970070294529},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.3153,"mean":0.85,"median":1,"bias":0.85,"maeMean":0.85,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.485,"empiricalMass":0.485,"logScore":0.7236063880446539},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.5244000000000001,"mean":1.06,"median":1,"bias":1.06,"maeMean":1.06,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.345,"empiricalMass":0.345,"logScore":1.0642108619507773},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.344025,"mean":0.865,"median":1,"bias":0.865,"maeMean":0.865,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.47,"empiricalMass":0.47,"logScore":0.7550225842780328},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.318375,"mean":0.785,"median":1,"bias":0.785,"maeMean":0.785,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.47,"empiricalMass":0.47,"logScore":0.7550225842780328}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.5,"1":0.295,"2":0.095,"3":0.06,"4":0.02,"5":0.02,"6":0.01},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.43,"1":0.28,"2":0.135,"3":0.095,"4":0.03,"5":0.015,"6":0.005,"7":0.005,"8":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.485,"1":0.31,"2":0.12,"3":0.065,"5":0.015,"6":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.345,"1":0.36,"2":0.205,"3":0.075,"4":0.01,"5":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.47,"1":0.29,"2":0.17,"3":0.045,"4":0.025},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.47,"1":0.345,"2":0.13,"3":0.04,"4":0.015}}},{"issuedAt":1577404800000,"validUntil":1577491200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":2,"actual":1,"trainingCount":4304,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2019","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.34820000000000007,"mean":1.52,"median":1,"bias":0.52,"maeMean":0.52,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.385,"pitUpper":0.63,"empiricalMass":0.245,"logScore":1.40649706843741},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.3189249999999999,"mean":1.565,"median":1,"bias":0.565,"maeMean":0.565,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.37,"pitUpper":0.665,"empiricalMass":0.295,"logScore":1.2207799226423173},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.300025,"mean":1.245,"median":1,"bias":0.2450000000000001,"maeMean":0.2450000000000001,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.41,"pitUpper":0.695,"empiricalMass":0.285,"logScore":1.2552660987134867},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.5539749999999999,"mean":1.955,"median":2,"bias":0.9550000000000001,"maeMean":0.9550000000000001,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.17,"pitUpper":0.36,"empiricalMass":0.19,"logScore":1.6607312068216509},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.28105,"mean":1.43,"median":1,"bias":0.42999999999999994,"maeMean":0.42999999999999994,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.25,"pitUpper":0.565,"empiricalMass":0.315,"logScore":1.155182640156504},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.49272499999999986,"mean":1.615,"median":0,"bias":0.615,"maeMean":0.615,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":9,"coverage":true,"width":9,"pitLower":0.58,"pitUpper":0.74,"empiricalMass":0.16,"logScore":1.8325814637483102}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.385,"1":0.245,"2":0.165,"3":0.095,"4":0.045,"5":0.025,"7":0.01,"8":0.01,"9":0.01,"11":0.005,"12":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.37,"1":0.295,"2":0.135,"3":0.07,"4":0.045,"5":0.035,"6":0.005,"7":0.025,"8":0.005,"10":0.005,"12":0.005,"16":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.41,"1":0.285,"2":0.14,"3":0.08,"4":0.025,"5":0.035,"6":0.01,"7":0.015},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.17,"1":0.19,"2":0.325,"3":0.2,"4":0.06,"5":0.055},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.25,"1":0.315,"2":0.28,"3":0.085,"4":0.05,"5":0.02},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.58,"1":0.16,"2":0.09,"3":0.035,"4":0.015,"5":0.02,"6":0.02,"7":0.02,"8":0.005,"9":0.015,"10":0.015,"11":0.005,"13":0.005,"14":0.005,"23":0.005,"24":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1577404800000,"validUntil":1577491200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":3,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4304,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2019","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.02957499999999999,"mean":0.205,"median":0,"bias":0.205,"maeMean":0.205,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.83,"empiricalMass":0.83,"logScore":0.18632957819149348},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.01605000000000001,"mean":0.17,"median":0,"bias":0.17,"maeMean":0.17,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.88,"empiricalMass":0.88,"logScore":0.12783337150988489},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.012199999999999989,"mean":0.12,"median":0,"bias":0.12,"maeMean":0.12,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.89,"empiricalMass":0.89,"logScore":0.11653381625595151},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.06312500000000001,"mean":0.275,"median":0,"bias":0.275,"maeMean":0.275,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.75,"empiricalMass":0.75,"logScore":0.2876820724517809},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.032625000000000015,"mean":0.195,"median":0,"bias":0.195,"maeMean":0.195,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.82,"empiricalMass":0.82,"logScore":0.19845093872383832},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.007875000000000021,"mean":0.135,"median":0,"bias":0.135,"maeMean":0.135,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.92,"empiricalMass":0.92,"logScore":0.08338160893905101}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.83,"1":0.145,"2":0.02,"4":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.88,"1":0.08,"2":0.035,"4":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.89,"1":0.1,"2":0.01},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.75,"1":0.225,"2":0.025},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.82,"1":0.165,"2":0.015},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.92,"1":0.045,"2":0.02,"3":0.01,"4":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1577404800000,"validUntil":1577491200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4304,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2019","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.00040000000000000105,"mean":0.02,"median":0,"bias":0.02,"maeMean":0.02,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.98,"empiricalMass":0.98,"logScore":0.020202707317519466},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.000899999999999998,"mean":0.03,"median":0,"bias":0.03,"maeMean":0.03,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.97,"empiricalMass":0.97,"logScore":0.030459207484708574},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.00002499999999999985,"mean":0.005,"median":0,"bias":0.005,"maeMean":0.005,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.995,"empiricalMass":0.995,"logScore":0.005012541823544286},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.0012250000000000039,"mean":0.035,"median":0,"bias":0.035,"maeMean":0.035,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.965,"empiricalMass":0.965,"logScore":0.03562717764315116},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.0025000000000000022,"mean":0.05,"median":0,"bias":0.05,"maeMean":0.05,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.95,"empiricalMass":0.95,"logScore":0.05129329438755058},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.0002249999999999995,"mean":0.015,"median":0,"bias":0.015,"maeMean":0.015,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.985,"empiricalMass":0.985,"logScore":0.015113637810048184}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.98,"1":0.02},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.97,"1":0.03},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.995,"1":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.965,"1":0.035},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.95,"1":0.05},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.985,"1":0.015}}},{"issuedAt":1577404800000,"validUntil":1578009600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":2,"actual":7,"trainingCount":4304,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2019","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":2.1997999999999998,"mean":12.01,"median":10,"bias":5.01,"maeMean":5.01,"maeMedian":3,"low":3,"high":25,"coverage":true,"width":22,"pitLower":0.25,"pitUpper":0.325,"empiricalMass":0.075,"logScore":2.5902671654458267},"rollingETAS":{"crps":1.8568749999999996,"mean":11.875,"median":9,"bias":4.875,"maeMean":4.875,"maeMedian":2,"low":3,"high":26,"coverage":true,"width":23,"pitLower":0.32,"pitUpper":0.385,"empiricalMass":0.065,"logScore":2.7333680090865},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":1.9558749999999998,"mean":11.885,"median":10,"bias":4.885,"maeMean":4.885,"maeMedian":3,"low":4,"high":27,"coverage":true,"width":23,"pitLower":0.3,"pitUpper":0.405,"empiricalMass":0.105,"logScore":2.2537949288246137},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":4.7540249999999995,"mean":13.705,"median":14,"bias":6.705,"maeMean":6.705,"maeMedian":7,"low":8,"high":20,"coverage":false,"width":12,"pitLower":0.015,"pitUpper":0.035,"empiricalMass":0.02,"logScore":3.912023005428146},"recentPoisson":{"crps":1.6097500000000002,"mean":9.98,"median":10,"bias":2.9800000000000004,"maeMean":2.9800000000000004,"maeMedian":3,"low":5,"high":16,"coverage":true,"width":11,"pitLower":0.145,"pitUpper":0.23,"empiricalMass":0.085,"logScore":2.4651040224918206},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":2.1068999999999996,"mean":9.68,"median":6,"bias":2.6799999999999997,"maeMean":2.6799999999999997,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":32,"coverage":true,"width":32,"pitLower":0.555,"pitUpper":0.58,"empiricalMass":0.025,"logScore":3.6888794541139363}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"1":0.005,"2":0.025,"3":0.04,"4":0.025,"5":0.085,"6":0.07,"7":0.075,"8":0.065,"9":0.07,"10":0.05,"11":0.08,"12":0.045,"13":0.055,"14":0.045,"15":0.03,"16":0.02,"17":0.025,"18":0.015,"19":0.02,"20":0.025,"21":0.01,"22":0.02,"23":0.01,"24":0.025,"25":0.015,"27":0.005,"30":0.005,"32":0.015,"33":0.005,"36":0.005,"38":0.005,"43":0.005,"47":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.005,"1":0.01,"2":0.02,"3":0.045,"4":0.045,"5":0.095,"6":0.1,"7":0.065,"8":0.075,"9":0.09,"10":0.045,"11":0.04,"12":0.03,"13":0.035,"14":0.035,"15":0.045,"16":0.02,"17":0.025,"18":0.01,"19":0.015,"20":0.045,"21":0.005,"22":0.01,"23":0.005,"24":0.005,"25":0.005,"26":0.025,"27":0.005,"29":0.005,"30":0.005,"31":0.005,"34":0.005,"42":0.005,"49":0.005,"55":0.005,"77":0.01},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.005,"1":0.005,"2":0.005,"3":0.025,"4":0.075,"5":0.085,"6":0.1,"7":0.105,"8":0.035,"9":0.055,"10":0.045,"11":0.07,"12":0.045,"13":0.04,"14":0.035,"15":0.03,"16":0.035,"17":0.025,"18":0.04,"19":0.015,"21":0.02,"23":0.01,"24":0.015,"25":0.02,"26":0.005,"27":0.005,"29":0.01,"31":0.01,"32":0.005,"33":0.01,"37":0.005,"40":0.005,"100":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"4":0.005,"5":0.005,"6":0.005,"7":0.02,"8":0.035,"9":0.055,"10":0.065,"11":0.055,"12":0.105,"13":0.145,"14":0.135,"15":0.095,"16":0.075,"17":0.055,"18":0.05,"19":0.035,"20":0.025,"21":0.015,"22":0.005,"23":0.005,"25":0.005,"27":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"1":0.005,"3":0.005,"4":0.01,"5":0.03,"6":0.095,"7":0.085,"8":0.11,"9":0.155,"10":0.13,"11":0.105,"12":0.065,"13":0.04,"14":0.055,"15":0.045,"16":0.02,"17":0.015,"18":0.02,"19":0.005,"20":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.125,"1":0.085,"2":0.08,"3":0.095,"4":0.055,"5":0.055,"6":0.06,"7":0.025,"8":0.025,"9":0.04,"10":0.075,"11":0.02,"12":0.005,"13":0.015,"14":0.005,"15":0.015,"16":0.02,"17":0.025,"18":0.015,"19":0.015,"20":0.015,"21":0.015,"22":0.01,"23":0.01,"24":0.01,"25":0.005,"28":0.015,"29":0.005,"30":0.005,"32":0.005,"39":0.01,"40":0.005,"44":0.005,"45":0.005,"49":0.005,"51":0.005,"56":0.005,"59":0.005,"65":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1577404800000,"validUntil":1578009600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":3,"actual":1,"trainingCount":4304,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2019","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.2665249999999999,"mean":1.335,"median":1,"bias":0.33499999999999996,"maeMean":0.33499999999999996,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.345,"pitUpper":0.68,"empiricalMass":0.335,"logScore":1.0936247471570706},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.351425,"mean":1.525,"median":1,"bias":0.5249999999999999,"maeMean":0.5249999999999999,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.405,"pitUpper":0.655,"empiricalMass":0.25,"logScore":1.3862943611198906},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.314875,"mean":1.325,"median":1,"bias":0.32499999999999996,"maeMean":0.32499999999999996,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.42,"pitUpper":0.715,"empiricalMass":0.295,"logScore":1.2207799226423173},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.4629,"mean":2.01,"median":2,"bias":1.0099999999999998,"maeMean":1.0099999999999998,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.125,"pitUpper":0.425,"empiricalMass":0.3,"logScore":1.2039728043259361},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.31332499999999996,"mean":1.575,"median":1,"bias":0.575,"maeMean":0.575,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.225,"pitUpper":0.545,"empiricalMass":0.32,"logScore":1.1394342831883648},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.5787499999999999,"mean":2.16,"median":0,"bias":1.1600000000000001,"maeMean":1.1600000000000001,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":10,"coverage":true,"width":10,"pitLower":0.505,"pitUpper":0.65,"empiricalMass":0.145,"logScore":1.9310215365615626}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.345,"1":0.335,"2":0.135,"3":0.095,"4":0.045,"5":0.02,"6":0.015,"7":0.005,"8":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.405,"1":0.25,"2":0.135,"3":0.09,"4":0.045,"5":0.035,"6":0.01,"7":0.01,"9":0.005,"13":0.01,"15":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.42,"1":0.295,"2":0.08,"3":0.1,"4":0.055,"5":0.025,"7":0.01,"8":0.005,"9":0.005,"14":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.125,"1":0.3,"2":0.28,"3":0.14,"4":0.085,"5":0.045,"6":0.02,"9":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.225,"1":0.32,"2":0.235,"3":0.14,"4":0.055,"5":0.01,"6":0.01,"7":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.505,"1":0.145,"2":0.08,"3":0.045,"4":0.06,"5":0.035,"6":0.025,"7":0.005,"8":0.025,"9":0.02,"10":0.015,"11":0.01,"12":0.01,"14":0.01,"18":0.005,"26":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1577404800000,"validUntil":1578009600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4304,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2019","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.019625000000000004,"mean":0.145,"median":0,"bias":0.145,"maeMean":0.145,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.86,"empiricalMass":0.86,"logScore":0.15082288973458366},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.018600000000000005,"mean":0.18,"median":0,"bias":0.18,"maeMean":0.18,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.87,"empiricalMass":0.87,"logScore":0.13926206733350766},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.01957500000000001,"mean":0.185,"median":0,"bias":0.185,"maeMean":0.185,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.865,"empiricalMass":0.865,"logScore":0.14502577205025774},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.033025,"mean":0.205,"median":0,"bias":0.205,"maeMean":0.205,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.82,"empiricalMass":0.82,"logScore":0.19845093872383832},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.010024999999999992,"mean":0.105,"median":0,"bias":0.105,"maeMean":0.105,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.9,"empiricalMass":0.9,"logScore":0.10536051565782628},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.008474999999999983,"mean":0.145,"median":0,"bias":0.145,"maeMean":0.145,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.915,"empiricalMass":0.915,"logScore":0.0888312137066157}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.86,"1":0.135,"2":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.87,"1":0.09,"2":0.03,"3":0.01},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.865,"1":0.1,"2":0.025,"3":0.005,"4":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.82,"1":0.155,"2":0.025},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.9,"1":0.095,"2":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.915,"1":0.055,"2":0.015,"3":0.005,"4":0.005,"5":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1577404800000,"validUntil":1579996800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":2,"actual":31,"trainingCount":4304,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2019","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":13.5838,"mean":57.42,"median":50.5,"bias":26.42,"maeMean":26.42,"maeMedian":19.5,"low":23,"high":108,"coverage":true,"width":85,"pitLower":0.07,"pitUpper":0.09,"empiricalMass":0.02,"logScore":3.912023005428146},"rollingETAS":{"crps":15.56485,"mean":63.67,"median":53.5,"bias":32.67,"maeMean":32.67,"maeMedian":22.5,"low":27,"high":131,"coverage":true,"width":104,"pitLower":0.09,"pitUpper":0.095,"empiricalMass":0.005,"logScore":5.298317366548036},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":15.569849999999999,"mean":60.23,"median":54,"bias":29.229999999999997,"maeMean":29.229999999999997,"maeMedian":23,"low":26,"high":107,"coverage":true,"width":81,"pitLower":0.065,"pitUpper":0.07,"empiricalMass":0.005,"logScore":5.298317366548036},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":23.30525,"mean":58.79,"median":58,"bias":27.79,"maeMean":27.79,"maeMedian":27,"low":47,"high":72,"coverage":false,"width":25,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentPoisson":{"crps":8.302299999999999,"mean":42.8,"median":43,"bias":11.799999999999997,"maeMean":11.799999999999997,"maeMedian":12,"low":33,"high":53,"coverage":false,"width":20,"pitLower":0.02,"pitUpper":0.02,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":6.626725,"mean":43.615,"median":40,"bias":12.615000000000002,"maeMean":12.615000000000002,"maeMedian":9,"low":9,"high":93,"coverage":true,"width":84,"pitLower":0.38,"pitUpper":0.405,"empiricalMass":0.025,"logScore":3.6888794541139363}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"18":0.005,"19":0.01,"20":0.005,"21":0.005,"22":0.01,"23":0.02,"24":0.005,"29":0.01,"31":0.02,"32":0.005,"33":0.02,"34":0.04,"35":0.005,"36":0.025,"37":0.015,"38":0.015,"39":0.03,"40":0.05,"41":0.025,"42":0.03,"43":0.045,"44":0.01,"45":0.03,"46":0.015,"47":0.02,"48":0.02,"50":0.01,"51":0.03,"52":0.005,"53":0.02,"54":0.005,"55":0.02,"56":0.015,"57":0.025,"58":0.005,"59":0.015,"60":0.01,"61":0.025,"62":0.01,"63":0.01,"64":0.005,"65":0.015,"66":0.005,"67":0.005,"68":0.02,"69":0.005,"70":0.005,"71":0.005,"72":0.005,"73":0.005,"74":0.01,"77":0.015,"78":0.005,"79":0.005,"81":0.005,"86":0.015,"87":0.01,"88":0.005,"89":0.015,"90":0.005,"91":0.005,"92":0.02,"93":0.005,"94":0.005,"95":0.015,"96":0.005,"97":0.01,"100":0.01,"104":0.005,"108":0.01,"110":0.005,"113":0.005,"114":0.005,"117":0.005,"123":0.005,"126":0.005,"130":0.005,"132":0.005,"138":0.005,"151":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"19":0.01,"23":0.01,"24":0.01,"25":0.005,"26":0.005,"27":0.01,"28":0.01,"29":0.025,"30":0.005,"31":0.005,"33":0.01,"34":0.025,"35":0.01,"36":0.02,"37":0.02,"38":0.015,"39":0.02,"40":0.04,"41":0.015,"42":0.02,"43":0.025,"44":0.015,"45":0.03,"46":0.015,"47":0.035,"48":0.02,"49":0.015,"50":0.02,"51":0.005,"52":0.015,"53":0.015,"54":0.02,"55":0.025,"56":0.015,"57":0.02,"58":0.01,"59":0.02,"60":0.01,"61":0.005,"62":0.015,"63":0.015,"64":0.01,"65":0.02,"67":0.015,"68":0.005,"69":0.005,"70":0.005,"72":0.01,"74":0.01,"75":0.005,"76":0.005,"77":0.005,"78":0.015,"79":0.015,"80":0.01,"81":0.005,"82":0.015,"83":0.015,"84":0.005,"85":0.015,"87":0.005,"91":0.02,"92":0.01,"94":0.005,"96":0.005,"99":0.005,"100":0.005,"101":0.01,"104":0.005,"106":0.005,"108":0.005,"109":0.005,"113":0.005,"115":0.005,"119":0.005,"131":0.005,"136":0.005,"146":0.005,"148":0.005,"149":0.005,"160":0.005,"184":0.005,"224":0.005,"247":0.005,"264":0.005,"321":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"19":0.005,"20":0.005,"21":0.01,"22":0.005,"24":0.01,"25":0.01,"26":0.01,"27":0.005,"28":0.005,"31":0.005,"32":0.015,"33":0.025,"34":0.035,"35":0.01,"37":0.015,"38":0.025,"39":0.025,"40":0.03,"41":0.035,"42":0.02,"43":0.01,"44":0.015,"45":0.015,"46":0.02,"47":0.025,"48":0.005,"49":0.01,"50":0.025,"51":0.025,"52":0.015,"53":0.01,"54":0.025,"55":0.01,"56":0.005,"57":0.005,"58":0.02,"59":0.025,"60":0.03,"61":0.02,"62":0.005,"63":0.01,"64":0.015,"65":0.015,"66":0.01,"67":0.025,"68":0.015,"69":0.005,"70":0.005,"71":0.015,"72":0.025,"73":0.005,"74":0.01,"75":0.005,"77":0.015,"78":0.005,"79":0.005,"80":0.01,"81":0.005,"83":0.015,"84":0.01,"85":0.01,"86":0.01,"87":0.005,"88":0.01,"89":0.005,"90":0.01,"95":0.005,"96":0.005,"98":0.01,"99":0.005,"100":0.005,"101":0.005,"102":0.005,"105":0.005,"107":0.005,"108":0.005,"113":0.005,"117":0.005,"119":0.005,"127":0.01,"133":0.005,"138":0.005,"176":0.005,"305":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"36":0.005,"37":0.005,"39":0.005,"41":0.005,"44":0.015,"46":0.005,"47":0.03,"48":0.035,"49":0.005,"50":0.03,"51":0.025,"52":0.03,"53":0.055,"54":0.07,"55":0.05,"56":0.06,"57":0.05,"58":0.025,"59":0.025,"60":0.05,"61":0.025,"62":0.055,"63":0.045,"64":0.03,"65":0.055,"66":0.03,"67":0.065,"68":0.025,"69":0.01,"70":0.005,"71":0.015,"72":0.015,"73":0.015,"74":0.005,"76":0.005,"77":0.01,"78":0.005,"79":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"24":0.005,"28":0.005,"29":0.005,"30":0.005,"32":0.015,"33":0.04,"34":0.035,"35":0.03,"36":0.045,"37":0.04,"38":0.04,"39":0.055,"40":0.045,"41":0.06,"42":0.045,"43":0.055,"44":0.075,"45":0.05,"46":0.04,"47":0.07,"48":0.06,"49":0.035,"50":0.04,"51":0.025,"52":0.025,"53":0.02,"55":0.005,"57":0.015,"58":0.005,"59":0.005,"60":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"2":0.005,"5":0.005,"6":0.015,"7":0.005,"8":0.01,"9":0.015,"10":0.015,"11":0.005,"12":0.005,"13":0.005,"14":0.01,"16":0.015,"17":0.01,"18":0.025,"19":0.02,"20":0.02,"21":0.03,"22":0.015,"23":0.005,"24":0.01,"25":0.035,"26":0.005,"27":0.02,"28":0.02,"29":0.02,"30":0.035,"31":0.025,"32":0.01,"33":0.015,"34":0.01,"35":0.005,"36":0.005,"37":0.01,"38":0.01,"39":0.02,"40":0.045,"41":0.01,"42":0.025,"43":0.005,"44":0.02,"45":0.02,"46":0.025,"47":0.005,"48":0.02,"49":0.005,"50":0.03,"51":0.02,"52":0.005,"53":0.02,"54":0.005,"55":0.005,"56":0.015,"58":0.01,"60":0.015,"61":0.005,"63":0.01,"64":0.005,"66":0.005,"67":0.01,"68":0.01,"70":0.01,"71":0.005,"74":0.005,"75":0.01,"77":0.015,"79":0.005,"80":0.005,"81":0.005,"83":0.005,"84":0.01,"85":0.01,"88":0.005,"90":0.005,"91":0.005,"93":0.01,"98":0.005,"106":0.01,"107":0.005,"112":0.005,"117":0.005,"118":0.005,"129":0.005,"136":0.005,"145":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1577404800000,"validUntil":1579996800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":3,"actual":4,"trainingCount":4304,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2019","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":1.3440500000000002,"mean":6.91,"median":6,"bias":2.91,"maeMean":2.91,"maeMedian":2,"low":1,"high":16,"coverage":true,"width":15,"pitLower":0.26,"pitUpper":0.345,"empiricalMass":0.085,"logScore":2.4651040224918206},"rollingETAS":{"crps":1.8136249999999996,"mean":8.255,"median":7,"bias":4.255000000000001,"maeMean":4.255000000000001,"maeMedian":3,"low":2,"high":18,"coverage":true,"width":16,"pitLower":0.185,"pitUpper":0.29,"empiricalMass":0.105,"logScore":2.2537949288246137},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":1.5343749999999998,"mean":7.165,"median":7,"bias":3.165,"maeMean":3.165,"maeMedian":3,"low":2,"high":14,"coverage":true,"width":12,"pitLower":0.215,"pitUpper":0.335,"empiricalMass":0.12,"logScore":2.120263536200091},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":2.687475,"mean":8.105,"median":8,"bias":4.105,"maeMean":4.105,"maeMedian":4,"low":4,"high":12,"coverage":true,"width":8,"pitLower":0.025,"pitUpper":0.085,"empiricalMass":0.06,"logScore":2.8134107167600364},"recentPoisson":{"crps":2.2012,"mean":7.52,"median":7,"bias":3.5199999999999996,"maeMean":3.5199999999999996,"maeMedian":3,"low":3,"high":12,"coverage":true,"width":9,"pitLower":0.06,"pitUpper":0.14,"empiricalMass":0.08,"logScore":2.5257286443082556},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":1.4046000000000003,"mean":6.57,"median":5,"bias":2.5700000000000003,"maeMean":2.5700000000000003,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":19,"coverage":true,"width":19,"pitLower":0.42,"pitUpper":0.475,"empiricalMass":0.055,"logScore":2.900422093749666}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.035,"1":0.03,"2":0.055,"3":0.14,"4":0.085,"5":0.125,"6":0.095,"7":0.095,"8":0.07,"9":0.02,"10":0.04,"11":0.045,"12":0.04,"13":0.045,"14":0.005,"15":0.02,"16":0.015,"17":0.015,"19":0.005,"22":0.005,"23":0.01,"30":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"1":0.025,"2":0.08,"3":0.08,"4":0.105,"5":0.09,"6":0.07,"7":0.135,"8":0.075,"9":0.065,"10":0.025,"11":0.03,"12":0.035,"13":0.035,"14":0.035,"15":0.015,"16":0.02,"17":0.025,"18":0.01,"19":0.005,"20":0.01,"22":0.005,"32":0.005,"33":0.005,"34":0.005,"41":0.005,"42":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.01,"1":0.025,"2":0.085,"3":0.095,"4":0.12,"5":0.07,"6":0.08,"7":0.11,"8":0.075,"9":0.075,"10":0.065,"11":0.055,"12":0.04,"13":0.03,"14":0.02,"15":0.015,"16":0.01,"18":0.005,"22":0.005,"26":0.005,"42":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"1":0.005,"2":0.01,"3":0.01,"4":0.06,"5":0.09,"6":0.125,"7":0.11,"8":0.15,"9":0.135,"10":0.13,"11":0.075,"12":0.05,"13":0.025,"14":0.01,"15":0.01,"17":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"1":0.01,"2":0.01,"3":0.04,"4":0.08,"5":0.095,"6":0.11,"7":0.165,"8":0.135,"9":0.115,"10":0.12,"11":0.06,"12":0.025,"13":0.025,"16":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.125,"1":0.095,"2":0.12,"3":0.08,"4":0.055,"5":0.07,"6":0.07,"7":0.06,"8":0.045,"9":0.04,"10":0.035,"11":0.015,"12":0.03,"13":0.015,"14":0.02,"15":0.03,"16":0.015,"17":0.005,"18":0.005,"19":0.02,"20":0.005,"21":0.005,"22":0.005,"23":0.005,"24":0.01,"26":0.005,"27":0.005,"30":0.005,"37":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1577404800000,"validUntil":1579996800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":4,"actual":1,"trainingCount":4304,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2019","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.37092500000000006,"mean":0.755,"median":0,"bias":-0.245,"maeMean":0.245,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.57,"pitUpper":0.805,"empiricalMass":0.235,"logScore":1.448169764837978},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.36155000000000004,"mean":1.02,"median":0,"bias":0.020000000000000018,"maeMean":0.020000000000000018,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.515,"pitUpper":0.72,"empiricalMass":0.205,"logScore":1.584745299843729},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.31447500000000006,"mean":0.925,"median":1,"bias":-0.07499999999999996,"maeMean":0.07499999999999996,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.49,"pitUpper":0.75,"empiricalMass":0.26,"logScore":1.3470736479666092},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.17425000000000002,"mean":1.03,"median":1,"bias":0.030000000000000027,"maeMean":0.030000000000000027,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.32,"pitUpper":0.74,"empiricalMass":0.42,"logScore":0.8675005677047231},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.27725000000000005,"mean":0.64,"median":0,"bias":-0.36,"maeMean":0.36,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.51,"pitUpper":0.87,"empiricalMass":0.36,"logScore":1.0216512475319814},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.361575,"mean":0.705,"median":0,"bias":-0.29500000000000004,"maeMean":0.29500000000000004,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.57,"pitUpper":0.82,"empiricalMass":0.25,"logScore":1.3862943611198906}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.57,"1":0.235,"2":0.11,"3":0.06,"4":0.015,"5":0.005,"7":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.515,"1":0.205,"2":0.165,"3":0.06,"4":0.025,"5":0.01,"6":0.005,"7":0.005,"8":0.005,"10":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.49,"1":0.26,"2":0.145,"3":0.08,"4":0.015,"5":0.005,"10":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.32,"1":0.42,"2":0.2,"3":0.035,"4":0.02,"5":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.51,"1":0.36,"2":0.115,"3":0.01,"4":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.57,"1":0.25,"2":0.12,"3":0.035,"4":0.02,"6":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1579996800000,"validUntil":1580083200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":2,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4335,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2020","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.45520000000000005,"mean":1.34,"median":1,"bias":1.34,"maeMean":1.34,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.41,"empiricalMass":0.41,"logScore":0.8915981192837836},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.44972500000000004,"mean":1.215,"median":1,"bias":1.215,"maeMean":1.215,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.415,"empiricalMass":0.415,"logScore":0.8794767587514388},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.48387499999999994,"mean":1.265,"median":1,"bias":1.265,"maeMean":1.265,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.42,"empiricalMass":0.42,"logScore":0.8675005677047231},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":1.282175,"mean":2.085,"median":2,"bias":2.085,"maeMean":2.085,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.14,"empiricalMass":0.14,"logScore":1.9661128563728327},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.768575,"mean":1.405,"median":1,"bias":1.405,"maeMean":1.405,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.25,"empiricalMass":0.25,"logScore":1.3862943611198906},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.2999999999999998,"mean":1.63,"median":0,"bias":1.63,"maeMean":1.63,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":9,"coverage":true,"width":9,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.645,"empiricalMass":0.645,"logScore":0.43850496218636453}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.41,"1":0.325,"2":0.12,"3":0.05,"4":0.045,"5":0.005,"6":0.015,"7":0.01,"9":0.01,"13":0.005,"21":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.415,"1":0.315,"2":0.115,"3":0.07,"4":0.04,"5":0.015,"6":0.015,"7":0.005,"8":0.005,"12":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.42,"1":0.25,"2":0.16,"3":0.085,"4":0.045,"5":0.02,"6":0.005,"7":0.005,"9":0.005,"10":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.14,"1":0.235,"2":0.28,"3":0.175,"4":0.11,"5":0.04,"6":0.015,"7":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.25,"1":0.33,"2":0.255,"3":0.12,"4":0.025,"5":0.015,"6":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.645,"1":0.105,"2":0.06,"3":0.03,"4":0.04,"5":0.015,"6":0.015,"7":0.02,"8":0.01,"9":0.01,"10":0.01,"11":0.005,"12":0.005,"13":0.005,"15":0.01,"16":0.01,"18":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1579996800000,"validUntil":1580083200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":3,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4335,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2020","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.015774999999999983,"mean":0.175,"median":0,"bias":0.175,"maeMean":0.175,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.88,"empiricalMass":0.88,"logScore":0.12783337150988489},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.0126,"mean":0.14,"median":0,"bias":0.14,"maeMean":0.14,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.89,"empiricalMass":0.89,"logScore":0.11653381625595151},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.02022500000000002,"mean":0.165,"median":0,"bias":0.165,"maeMean":0.165,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.86,"empiricalMass":0.86,"logScore":0.15082288973458366},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.05612500000000001,"mean":0.265,"median":0,"bias":0.265,"maeMean":0.265,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.765,"empiricalMass":0.765,"logScore":0.2678794451556012},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.07352499999999998,"mean":0.295,"median":0,"bias":0.295,"maeMean":0.295,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.73,"empiricalMass":0.73,"logScore":0.31471074483970024},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.018774999999999986,"mean":0.285,"median":0,"bias":0.285,"maeMean":0.285,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.885,"empiricalMass":0.885,"logScore":0.12216763397420753}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.88,"1":0.085,"2":0.025,"3":0.005,"5":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.89,"1":0.09,"2":0.01,"3":0.01},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.86,"1":0.115,"2":0.025},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.765,"1":0.205,"2":0.03},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.73,"1":0.245,"2":0.025},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.885,"1":0.065,"2":0.01,"3":0.015,"4":0.005,"5":0.005,"6":0.005,"8":0.01}}},{"issuedAt":1579996800000,"validUntil":1580083200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4335,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2020","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.0002500000000000002,"mean":0.02,"median":0,"bias":0.02,"maeMean":0.02,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.985,"empiricalMass":0.985,"logScore":0.015113637810048184},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.00002499999999999985,"mean":0.005,"median":0,"bias":0.005,"maeMean":0.005,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.995,"empiricalMass":0.995,"logScore":0.005012541823544286},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.0002249999999999995,"mean":0.015,"median":0,"bias":0.015,"maeMean":0.015,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.985,"empiricalMass":0.985,"logScore":0.015113637810048184},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.0025000000000000022,"mean":0.05,"median":0,"bias":0.05,"maeMean":0.05,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.95,"empiricalMass":0.95,"logScore":0.05129329438755058},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.0006250000000000006,"mean":0.025,"median":0,"bias":0.025,"maeMean":0.025,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.975,"empiricalMass":0.975,"logScore":0.025317807984289897},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.0006499999999999978,"mean":0.03,"median":0,"bias":0.03,"maeMean":0.03,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.975,"empiricalMass":0.975,"logScore":0.025317807984289897}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.985,"1":0.01,"2":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.995,"1":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.985,"1":0.015},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.95,"1":0.05},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.975,"1":0.025},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.975,"1":0.02,"2":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1579996800000,"validUntil":1580601600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":2,"actual":7,"trainingCount":4335,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2020","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":2.0305,"mean":12.82,"median":9,"bias":5.82,"maeMean":5.82,"maeMedian":2,"low":3,"high":40,"coverage":true,"width":37,"pitLower":0.26,"pitUpper":0.34,"empiricalMass":0.08,"logScore":2.5257286443082556},"rollingETAS":{"crps":1.8058750000000003,"mean":12.655,"median":9,"bias":5.654999999999999,"maeMean":5.654999999999999,"maeMedian":2,"low":3,"high":30,"coverage":true,"width":27,"pitLower":0.34,"pitUpper":0.4,"empiricalMass":0.06,"logScore":2.8134107167600364},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":1.8355999999999995,"mean":11.29,"median":10,"bias":4.289999999999999,"maeMean":4.289999999999999,"maeMedian":3,"low":3,"high":28,"coverage":true,"width":25,"pitLower":0.295,"pitUpper":0.365,"empiricalMass":0.07,"logScore":2.659260036932778},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":4.74035,"mean":13.57,"median":13,"bias":6.57,"maeMean":6.57,"maeMedian":6,"low":9,"high":19,"coverage":false,"width":10,"pitLower":0.005,"pitUpper":0.02,"empiricalMass":0.015,"logScore":4.199705077879927},"recentPoisson":{"crps":1.8441249999999998,"mean":10.295,"median":10,"bias":3.295,"maeMean":3.295,"maeMedian":3,"low":5,"high":15,"coverage":true,"width":10,"pitLower":0.095,"pitUpper":0.18,"empiricalMass":0.085,"logScore":2.4651040224918206},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":2.373875,"mean":10.495,"median":6,"bias":3.494999999999999,"maeMean":3.494999999999999,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":34,"coverage":true,"width":34,"pitLower":0.53,"pitUpper":0.58,"empiricalMass":0.05,"logScore":2.995732273553991}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"1":0.02,"2":0.025,"3":0.03,"4":0.05,"5":0.065,"6":0.07,"7":0.08,"8":0.1,"9":0.075,"10":0.07,"11":0.045,"12":0.045,"13":0.025,"14":0.035,"15":0.04,"16":0.02,"17":0.04,"18":0.01,"19":0.005,"20":0.015,"21":0.005,"22":0.01,"23":0.01,"24":0.005,"25":0.005,"27":0.005,"28":0.005,"30":0.005,"32":0.005,"33":0.005,"34":0.01,"37":0.01,"40":0.005,"41":0.005,"42":0.005,"43":0.005,"44":0.01,"47":0.005,"48":0.005,"49":0.005,"55":0.005,"86":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.005,"1":0.005,"2":0.005,"3":0.075,"4":0.055,"5":0.11,"6":0.085,"7":0.06,"8":0.075,"9":0.08,"10":0.06,"11":0.04,"12":0.04,"13":0.04,"14":0.025,"15":0.02,"16":0.015,"17":0.035,"18":0.025,"19":0.01,"20":0.005,"21":0.02,"22":0.01,"23":0.005,"24":0.01,"26":0.005,"27":0.005,"28":0.01,"29":0.01,"30":0.005,"31":0.005,"32":0.005,"37":0.01,"44":0.005,"46":0.005,"62":0.005,"77":0.005,"99":0.005,"165":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.005,"1":0.005,"2":0.03,"3":0.07,"4":0.035,"5":0.07,"6":0.08,"7":0.07,"8":0.07,"9":0.06,"10":0.075,"11":0.065,"12":0.03,"13":0.075,"14":0.04,"15":0.03,"16":0.02,"17":0.045,"18":0.02,"19":0.015,"20":0.01,"21":0.005,"22":0.01,"23":0.01,"28":0.01,"30":0.015,"34":0.005,"36":0.005,"37":0.005,"40":0.005,"62":0.005,"77":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"6":0.005,"7":0.015,"8":0.02,"9":0.05,"10":0.085,"11":0.12,"12":0.095,"13":0.115,"14":0.145,"15":0.095,"16":0.085,"17":0.075,"18":0.02,"19":0.03,"20":0.015,"22":0.01,"23":0.01,"24":0.005,"26":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"3":0.005,"4":0.01,"5":0.04,"6":0.04,"7":0.085,"8":0.135,"9":0.15,"10":0.11,"11":0.085,"12":0.095,"13":0.06,"14":0.09,"15":0.045,"16":0.025,"19":0.015,"20":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.195,"1":0.075,"2":0.07,"3":0.07,"4":0.055,"5":0.025,"6":0.04,"7":0.05,"8":0.03,"9":0.015,"10":0.035,"11":0.025,"12":0.025,"13":0.02,"14":0.025,"15":0.015,"16":0.03,"17":0.015,"18":0.025,"19":0.01,"20":0.01,"22":0.015,"23":0.01,"24":0.005,"25":0.015,"26":0.01,"27":0.005,"28":0.005,"30":0.005,"33":0.01,"34":0.01,"37":0.005,"42":0.005,"44":0.005,"46":0.005,"48":0.005,"49":0.005,"55":0.005,"65":0.005,"84":0.005,"133":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1579996800000,"validUntil":1580601600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":3,"actual":1,"trainingCount":4335,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2020","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.308775,"mean":1.355,"median":1,"bias":0.355,"maeMean":0.355,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.41,"pitUpper":0.69,"empiricalMass":0.28,"logScore":1.2729656758128873},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.3580500000000002,"mean":1.97,"median":1,"bias":0.97,"maeMean":0.97,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":6,"coverage":true,"width":6,"pitLower":0.32,"pitUpper":0.6,"empiricalMass":0.28,"logScore":1.2729656758128873},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.26095,"mean":1.33,"median":1,"bias":0.33000000000000007,"maeMean":0.33000000000000007,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.35,"pitUpper":0.67,"empiricalMass":0.32,"logScore":1.1394342831883648},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.48597499999999993,"mean":2.025,"median":2,"bias":1.025,"maeMean":1.025,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.115,"pitUpper":0.415,"empiricalMass":0.3,"logScore":1.2039728043259361},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.3502249999999999,"mean":1.665,"median":1,"bias":0.665,"maeMean":0.665,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.185,"pitUpper":0.515,"empiricalMass":0.33,"logScore":1.1086626245216111},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.5748249999999999,"mean":2.075,"median":0,"bias":1.0750000000000002,"maeMean":1.0750000000000002,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":11,"coverage":true,"width":11,"pitLower":0.55,"pitUpper":0.67,"empiricalMass":0.12,"logScore":2.120263536200091}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.41,"1":0.28,"2":0.145,"3":0.06,"4":0.045,"5":0.02,"6":0.015,"7":0.01,"8":0.005,"9":0.005,"16":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.32,"1":0.28,"2":0.17,"3":0.085,"4":0.045,"5":0.04,"6":0.01,"7":0.015,"8":0.005,"10":0.01,"14":0.005,"16":0.005,"17":0.005,"35":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.35,"1":0.32,"2":0.185,"3":0.075,"4":0.03,"5":0.005,"6":0.015,"7":0.005,"8":0.005,"9":0.005,"12":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.115,"1":0.3,"2":0.26,"3":0.185,"4":0.07,"5":0.05,"6":0.02},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.185,"1":0.33,"2":0.21,"3":0.205,"4":0.055,"5":0.01,"6":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.55,"1":0.12,"2":0.095,"3":0.045,"4":0.03,"5":0.04,"6":0.03,"7":0.01,"8":0.015,"11":0.025,"12":0.005,"13":0.005,"14":0.015,"15":0.005,"24":0.005,"27":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1579996800000,"validUntil":1580601600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4335,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2020","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.034674999999999984,"mean":0.245,"median":0,"bias":0.245,"maeMean":0.245,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.82,"empiricalMass":0.82,"logScore":0.19845093872383832},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.03032500000000002,"mean":0.265,"median":0,"bias":0.265,"maeMean":0.265,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.835,"empiricalMass":0.835,"logScore":0.18032355413128162},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.014875,"mean":0.155,"median":0,"bias":0.155,"maeMean":0.155,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.88,"empiricalMass":0.88,"logScore":0.12783337150988489},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.021275000000000016,"mean":0.165,"median":0,"bias":0.165,"maeMean":0.165,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.855,"empiricalMass":0.855,"logScore":0.15665381004537685},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.017000000000000015,"mean":0.14,"median":0,"bias":0.14,"maeMean":0.14,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.87,"empiricalMass":0.87,"logScore":0.13926206733350766},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.020074999999999982,"mean":0.175,"median":0,"bias":0.175,"maeMean":0.175,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.86,"empiricalMass":0.86,"logScore":0.15082288973458366}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.82,"1":0.135,"2":0.03,"3":0.01,"4":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.835,"1":0.115,"2":0.03,"3":0.01,"4":0.005,"8":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.88,"1":0.1,"2":0.015,"5":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.855,"1":0.13,"2":0.01,"3":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.87,"1":0.12,"2":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.86,"1":0.12,"2":0.015,"5":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1579996800000,"validUntil":1582588800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":2,"actual":26,"trainingCount":4335,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2020","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":21.502450000000003,"mean":61.24,"median":57,"bias":35.24,"maeMean":35.24,"maeMedian":31,"low":28,"high":108,"coverage":false,"width":80,"pitLower":0.04,"pitUpper":0.045,"empiricalMass":0.005,"logScore":5.298317366548036},"rollingETAS":{"crps":14.614949999999997,"mean":57.99,"median":47.5,"bias":31.990000000000002,"maeMean":31.990000000000002,"maeMedian":21.5,"low":22,"high":143,"coverage":true,"width":121,"pitLower":0.08,"pitUpper":0.085,"empiricalMass":0.005,"logScore":5.298317366548036},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":18.975175,"mean":58.355,"median":53,"bias":32.355,"maeMean":32.355,"maeMedian":27,"low":28,"high":109,"coverage":false,"width":81,"pitLower":0.025,"pitUpper":0.03,"empiricalMass":0.005,"logScore":5.298317366548036},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":27.875574999999998,"mean":58.165,"median":58,"bias":32.165,"maeMean":32.165,"maeMedian":32,"low":46,"high":72,"coverage":false,"width":26,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentPoisson":{"crps":13.63835,"mean":43.19,"median":43.5,"bias":17.189999999999998,"maeMean":17.189999999999998,"maeMedian":17.5,"low":32,"high":53,"coverage":false,"width":21,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":9.2675,"mean":45.13,"median":39,"bias":19.130000000000003,"maeMean":19.130000000000003,"maeMedian":13,"low":8,"high":99,"coverage":true,"width":91,"pitLower":0.26,"pitUpper":0.285,"empiricalMass":0.025,"logScore":3.6888794541139363}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"19":0.005,"22":0.005,"23":0.005,"24":0.015,"25":0.01,"26":0.005,"28":0.01,"29":0.01,"30":0.02,"31":0.005,"32":0.005,"33":0.005,"34":0.03,"35":0.01,"36":0.015,"38":0.01,"39":0.03,"40":0.02,"41":0.01,"42":0.02,"43":0.005,"44":0.02,"45":0.015,"46":0.015,"47":0.02,"48":0.015,"49":0.03,"50":0.025,"51":0.015,"52":0.02,"53":0.025,"54":0.005,"55":0.01,"56":0.025,"57":0.02,"58":0.02,"59":0.015,"60":0.015,"61":0.02,"62":0.01,"63":0.02,"64":0.02,"65":0.03,"66":0.01,"67":0.015,"69":0.015,"70":0.015,"71":0.015,"72":0.01,"73":0.005,"74":0.01,"76":0.03,"77":0.015,"78":0.005,"79":0.01,"81":0.005,"82":0.015,"83":0.01,"85":0.015,"86":0.005,"87":0.01,"88":0.005,"89":0.01,"92":0.005,"93":0.01,"95":0.01,"98":0.01,"99":0.005,"102":0.005,"103":0.005,"104":0.005,"108":0.005,"113":0.01,"119":0.005,"121":0.005,"124":0.005,"127":0.005,"138":0.005,"158":0.005,"168":0.005,"197":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"7":0.005,"10":0.005,"17":0.005,"18":0.005,"21":0.015,"22":0.02,"23":0.01,"24":0.015,"26":0.005,"27":0.01,"28":0.015,"29":0.04,"30":0.035,"31":0.015,"32":0.015,"33":0.03,"34":0.03,"35":0.025,"36":0.02,"37":0.02,"38":0.01,"39":0.01,"40":0.01,"41":0.02,"42":0.025,"43":0.02,"44":0.02,"45":0.025,"46":0.015,"47":0.005,"48":0.02,"49":0.02,"50":0.025,"51":0.02,"52":0.015,"53":0.005,"54":0.01,"56":0.01,"57":0.005,"58":0.01,"59":0.03,"60":0.02,"61":0.005,"62":0.01,"63":0.01,"64":0.005,"65":0.005,"66":0.01,"68":0.02,"69":0.01,"70":0.02,"71":0.01,"73":0.01,"74":0.005,"75":0.01,"78":0.01,"80":0.005,"81":0.005,"82":0.01,"83":0.01,"84":0.005,"88":0.01,"91":0.005,"93":0.005,"95":0.005,"97":0.005,"103":0.005,"104":0.005,"105":0.005,"110":0.005,"112":0.005,"116":0.005,"125":0.01,"127":0.005,"137":0.005,"143":0.01,"147":0.005,"151":0.005,"157":0.005,"160":0.005,"174":0.005,"189":0.005,"230":0.005,"242":0.005,"252":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"21":0.005,"23":0.005,"24":0.005,"25":0.01,"26":0.005,"27":0.01,"28":0.02,"29":0.01,"30":0.005,"31":0.015,"32":0.02,"33":0.02,"34":0.01,"35":0.015,"36":0.02,"37":0.005,"38":0.01,"39":0.025,"40":0.01,"41":0.045,"42":0.02,"43":0.02,"44":0.02,"45":0.03,"46":0.015,"47":0.04,"48":0.025,"49":0.005,"50":0.025,"51":0.01,"52":0.01,"53":0.02,"54":0.015,"55":0.015,"56":0.015,"57":0.025,"58":0.025,"59":0.015,"60":0.01,"61":0.015,"62":0.01,"63":0.025,"64":0.02,"65":0.01,"66":0.015,"67":0.025,"69":0.01,"70":0.01,"71":0.02,"72":0.015,"73":0.015,"75":0.015,"77":0.015,"78":0.005,"79":0.005,"81":0.005,"86":0.005,"87":0.005,"90":0.01,"91":0.01,"92":0.01,"95":0.01,"96":0.01,"97":0.005,"102":0.005,"106":0.005,"107":0.005,"109":0.005,"110":0.005,"118":0.005,"120":0.005,"121":0.005,"122":0.005,"126":0.005,"147":0.005,"148":0.005,"163":0.005,"193":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"38":0.005,"40":0.005,"42":0.005,"43":0.01,"44":0.005,"45":0.015,"46":0.02,"47":0.01,"48":0.02,"49":0.025,"50":0.03,"51":0.055,"52":0.04,"53":0.04,"54":0.05,"55":0.04,"56":0.03,"57":0.04,"58":0.07,"59":0.075,"60":0.04,"61":0.04,"62":0.045,"63":0.05,"64":0.04,"65":0.04,"66":0.015,"67":0.015,"68":0.035,"69":0.01,"70":0.02,"71":0.005,"72":0.005,"73":0.02,"74":0.015,"75":0.015},"recentPoisson":{"28":0.005,"30":0.02,"31":0.01,"32":0.015,"33":0.01,"34":0.03,"35":0.03,"36":0.035,"37":0.025,"38":0.085,"39":0.035,"40":0.025,"41":0.04,"42":0.055,"43":0.08,"44":0.095,"45":0.055,"46":0.05,"47":0.06,"48":0.04,"49":0.055,"50":0.015,"51":0.055,"52":0.015,"53":0.02,"54":0.005,"55":0.015,"58":0.005,"60":0.005,"62":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"3":0.01,"4":0.005,"5":0.005,"6":0.015,"7":0.005,"8":0.01,"9":0.005,"10":0.015,"11":0.005,"12":0.01,"14":0.005,"15":0.02,"16":0.02,"17":0.005,"18":0.015,"19":0.015,"20":0.005,"21":0.01,"22":0.02,"23":0.035,"24":0.015,"25":0.01,"26":0.025,"27":0.015,"28":0.005,"29":0.02,"30":0.005,"31":0.02,"32":0.025,"33":0.01,"34":0.02,"35":0.02,"36":0.03,"37":0.005,"38":0.015,"39":0.03,"40":0.02,"41":0.015,"42":0.01,"43":0.02,"44":0.01,"45":0.01,"46":0.01,"47":0.01,"48":0.02,"49":0.01,"50":0.005,"51":0.015,"53":0.005,"54":0.02,"55":0.01,"56":0.02,"57":0.01,"58":0.015,"59":0.005,"60":0.015,"61":0.005,"62":0.015,"63":0.005,"64":0.015,"65":0.005,"68":0.01,"69":0.01,"70":0.005,"72":0.005,"73":0.015,"74":0.015,"75":0.005,"77":0.005,"78":0.01,"80":0.005,"82":0.005,"84":0.01,"86":0.005,"87":0.01,"88":0.005,"89":0.01,"91":0.005,"92":0.005,"99":0.005,"102":0.01,"103":0.005,"104":0.005,"109":0.01,"113":0.005,"140":0.01,"167":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1579996800000,"validUntil":1582588800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":3,"actual":6,"trainingCount":4335,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2020","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":1.0654749999999997,"mean":7.635,"median":7,"bias":1.6349999999999998,"maeMean":1.6349999999999998,"maeMedian":1,"low":2,"high":17,"coverage":true,"width":15,"pitLower":0.38,"pitUpper":0.485,"empiricalMass":0.105,"logScore":2.2537949288246137},"rollingETAS":{"crps":1.2321749999999998,"mean":8.095,"median":6,"bias":2.0950000000000006,"maeMean":2.0950000000000006,"maeMedian":0,"low":1,"high":22,"coverage":true,"width":21,"pitLower":0.47,"pitUpper":0.54,"empiricalMass":0.07,"logScore":2.659260036932778},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":1.1660999999999997,"mean":7.28,"median":6,"bias":1.2800000000000002,"maeMean":1.2800000000000002,"maeMedian":0,"low":1,"high":17,"coverage":true,"width":16,"pitLower":0.455,"pitUpper":0.52,"empiricalMass":0.065,"logScore":2.7333680090865},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":1.1622000000000001,"mean":7.99,"median":8,"bias":1.9900000000000002,"maeMean":1.9900000000000002,"maeMedian":2,"low":3,"high":13,"coverage":true,"width":10,"pitLower":0.2,"pitUpper":0.315,"empiricalMass":0.115,"logScore":2.162823150618887},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.73335,"mean":7.33,"median":7,"bias":1.33,"maeMean":1.33,"maeMedian":1,"low":3,"high":12,"coverage":true,"width":9,"pitLower":0.23,"pitUpper":0.41,"empiricalMass":0.18,"logScore":1.7147984280919266},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":1.6014999999999997,"mean":8.03,"median":6,"bias":2.0299999999999994,"maeMean":2.0299999999999994,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":24,"coverage":true,"width":24,"pitLower":0.49,"pitUpper":0.545,"empiricalMass":0.055,"logScore":2.900422093749666}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.01,"1":0.035,"2":0.055,"3":0.065,"4":0.1,"5":0.115,"6":0.105,"7":0.07,"8":0.07,"9":0.085,"10":0.07,"11":0.06,"12":0.02,"13":0.025,"14":0.035,"15":0.015,"16":0.01,"17":0.015,"18":0.015,"19":0.01,"22":0.01,"28":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.02,"1":0.055,"2":0.075,"3":0.085,"4":0.11,"5":0.125,"6":0.07,"7":0.065,"8":0.055,"9":0.045,"10":0.035,"11":0.045,"12":0.035,"13":0.045,"14":0.01,"15":0.015,"16":0.02,"17":0.01,"19":0.005,"20":0.01,"21":0.005,"22":0.01,"23":0.01,"26":0.01,"27":0.005,"28":0.005,"30":0.005,"37":0.005,"42":0.005,"43":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.005,"1":0.06,"2":0.07,"3":0.105,"4":0.14,"5":0.075,"6":0.065,"7":0.06,"8":0.08,"9":0.04,"10":0.065,"11":0.08,"12":0.04,"13":0.01,"14":0.03,"15":0.01,"16":0.005,"17":0.015,"18":0.015,"19":0.005,"20":0.005,"23":0.005,"24":0.005,"26":0.005,"29":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"1":0.005,"2":0.025,"3":0.02,"4":0.065,"5":0.085,"6":0.115,"7":0.12,"8":0.15,"9":0.12,"10":0.1,"11":0.075,"12":0.06,"13":0.02,"14":0.025,"15":0.015},"recentPoisson":{"2":0.01,"3":0.04,"4":0.09,"5":0.09,"6":0.18,"7":0.175,"8":0.135,"9":0.08,"10":0.09,"11":0.05,"12":0.01,"13":0.02,"14":0.01,"15":0.015,"16":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.115,"1":0.06,"2":0.12,"3":0.065,"4":0.075,"5":0.055,"6":0.055,"7":0.08,"8":0.05,"9":0.025,"10":0.05,"11":0.015,"12":0.03,"13":0.02,"14":0.005,"16":0.02,"17":0.025,"18":0.01,"19":0.005,"20":0.02,"21":0.015,"22":0.015,"23":0.01,"24":0.01,"25":0.01,"26":0.005,"27":0.005,"30":0.005,"32":0.01,"33":0.005,"37":0.005,"44":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1579996800000,"validUntil":1582588800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4335,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2020","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.32167500000000004,"mean":0.875,"median":1,"bias":0.875,"maeMean":0.875,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.48,"empiricalMass":0.48,"logScore":0.7339691750802004},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.3579500000000001,"mean":1.12,"median":1,"bias":1.12,"maeMean":1.12,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.485,"empiricalMass":0.485,"logScore":0.7236063880446539},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.283625,"mean":0.845,"median":0,"bias":0.845,"maeMean":0.845,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.51,"empiricalMass":0.51,"logScore":0.6733445532637656},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.42037500000000005,"mean":0.905,"median":1,"bias":0.905,"maeMean":0.905,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.41,"empiricalMass":0.41,"logScore":0.8915981192837836},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.26694999999999997,"mean":0.69,"median":0,"bias":0.69,"maeMean":0.69,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.51,"empiricalMass":0.51,"logScore":0.6733445532637656},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.27144999999999997,"mean":0.7,"median":0.5,"bias":0.7,"maeMean":0.7,"maeMedian":0.5,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.5,"empiricalMass":0.5,"logScore":0.6931471805599453}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.48,"1":0.31,"2":0.135,"3":0.045,"4":0.01,"5":0.005,"6":0.01,"7":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.485,"1":0.26,"2":0.12,"3":0.065,"4":0.02,"5":0.015,"6":0.015,"7":0.005,"8":0.005,"10":0.005,"11":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.51,"1":0.305,"2":0.105,"3":0.035,"4":0.02,"5":0.01,"6":0.01,"7":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.41,"1":0.325,"2":0.22,"3":0.04,"4":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.51,"1":0.33,"2":0.125,"3":0.03,"4":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.5,"1":0.36,"2":0.105,"3":0.01,"4":0.025}}},{"issuedAt":1582588800000,"validUntil":1582675200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":2,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4361,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2020","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.6142750000000001,"mean":1.665,"median":1,"bias":1.665,"maeMean":1.665,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":7,"coverage":true,"width":7,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.34,"empiricalMass":0.34,"logScore":1.0788096613719298},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.54135,"mean":1.59,"median":1,"bias":1.59,"maeMean":1.59,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.38,"empiricalMass":0.38,"logScore":0.9675840262617056},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.6299,"mean":1.46,"median":1,"bias":1.46,"maeMean":1.46,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.335,"empiricalMass":0.335,"logScore":1.0936247471570706},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":1.186325,"mean":1.905,"median":2,"bias":1.905,"maeMean":1.905,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.115,"empiricalMass":0.115,"logScore":2.162823150618887},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.7200500000000001,"mean":1.35,"median":1,"bias":1.35,"maeMean":1.35,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.26,"empiricalMass":0.26,"logScore":1.3470736479666092},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.23312500000000003,"mean":1.495,"median":0,"bias":1.495,"maeMean":1.495,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":9,"coverage":true,"width":9,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.675,"empiricalMass":0.675,"logScore":0.3930425881096072}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.34,"1":0.335,"2":0.12,"3":0.075,"4":0.075,"7":0.02,"10":0.005,"11":0.015,"12":0.005,"14":0.005,"16":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.38,"1":0.31,"2":0.12,"3":0.08,"4":0.045,"5":0.02,"6":0.005,"8":0.005,"9":0.005,"10":0.015,"11":0.005,"19":0.005,"21":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.335,"1":0.295,"2":0.175,"3":0.11,"4":0.03,"5":0.015,"6":0.015,"7":0.01,"8":0.01,"10":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.115,"1":0.335,"2":0.265,"3":0.15,"4":0.105,"5":0.015,"6":0.01,"7":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.26,"1":0.36,"2":0.22,"3":0.115,"4":0.025,"5":0.015,"6":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.675,"1":0.09,"2":0.075,"3":0.035,"4":0.035,"5":0.02,"6":0.005,"7":0.01,"9":0.01,"10":0.01,"11":0.005,"12":0.01,"19":0.005,"22":0.005,"23":0.005,"25":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1582588800000,"validUntil":1582675200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":3,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4361,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2020","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.03184999999999999,"mean":0.25,"median":0,"bias":0.25,"maeMean":0.25,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.83,"empiricalMass":0.83,"logScore":0.18632957819149348},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.0295,"mean":0.26,"median":0,"bias":0.26,"maeMean":0.26,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.84,"empiricalMass":0.84,"logScore":0.1743533871447778},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.01452500000000001,"mean":0.165,"median":0,"bias":0.165,"maeMean":0.165,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.885,"empiricalMass":0.885,"logScore":0.12216763397420753},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.076875,"mean":0.315,"median":0,"bias":0.315,"maeMean":0.315,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.725,"empiricalMass":0.725,"logScore":0.32158362412746233},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.021650000000000003,"mean":0.17,"median":0,"bias":0.17,"maeMean":0.17,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.855,"empiricalMass":0.855,"logScore":0.15665381004537685},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.011749999999999983,"mean":0.24,"median":0,"bias":0.24,"maeMean":0.24,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.92,"empiricalMass":0.92,"logScore":0.08338160893905101}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.83,"1":0.12,"2":0.03,"3":0.015,"5":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.84,"1":0.105,"2":0.03,"3":0.01,"4":0.01,"5":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.885,"1":0.085,"2":0.01,"3":0.02},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.725,"1":0.24,"2":0.03,"3":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.855,"1":0.12,"2":0.025},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.92,"1":0.025,"2":0.02,"3":0.01,"4":0.01,"5":0.005,"7":0.005,"9":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1582588800000,"validUntil":1582675200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4361,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2020","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.000899999999999998,"mean":0.03,"median":0,"bias":0.03,"maeMean":0.03,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.97,"empiricalMass":0.97,"logScore":0.030459207484708574},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.0013249999999999998,"mean":0.045,"median":0,"bias":0.045,"maeMean":0.045,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.965,"empiricalMass":0.965,"logScore":0.03562717764315116},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.0006250000000000006,"mean":0.025,"median":0,"bias":0.025,"maeMean":0.025,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.975,"empiricalMass":0.975,"logScore":0.025317807984289897},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.0016000000000000042,"mean":0.04,"median":0,"bias":0.04,"maeMean":0.04,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.96,"empiricalMass":0.96,"logScore":0.040821994520255166},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.0002249999999999995,"mean":0.015,"median":0,"bias":0.015,"maeMean":0.015,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.985,"empiricalMass":0.985,"logScore":0.015113637810048184},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.0000999999999999994,"mean":0.01,"median":0,"bias":0.01,"maeMean":0.01,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.99,"empiricalMass":0.99,"logScore":0.01005033585350145}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.97,"1":0.03},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.965,"1":0.025,"2":0.01},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.975,"1":0.025},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.96,"1":0.04},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.985,"1":0.015},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.99,"1":0.01}}},{"issuedAt":1582588800000,"validUntil":1583193600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":2,"actual":8,"trainingCount":4361,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2020","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":2.1427250000000004,"mean":13.205,"median":10,"bias":5.205,"maeMean":5.205,"maeMedian":2,"low":3,"high":30,"coverage":true,"width":27,"pitLower":0.315,"pitUpper":0.375,"empiricalMass":0.06,"logScore":2.8134107167600364},"rollingETAS":{"crps":1.5872000000000002,"mean":12.11,"median":8,"bias":4.109999999999999,"maeMean":4.109999999999999,"maeMedian":0,"low":3,"high":30,"coverage":true,"width":27,"pitLower":0.435,"pitUpper":0.51,"empiricalMass":0.075,"logScore":2.5902671654458267},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":1.78355,"mean":12.08,"median":10,"bias":4.08,"maeMean":4.08,"maeMedian":2,"low":3,"high":29,"coverage":true,"width":26,"pitLower":0.315,"pitUpper":0.4,"empiricalMass":0.085,"logScore":2.4651040224918206},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":3.697,"mean":13.55,"median":13,"bias":5.550000000000001,"maeMean":5.550000000000001,"maeMedian":5,"low":8,"high":20,"coverage":true,"width":12,"pitLower":0.03,"pitUpper":0.075,"empiricalMass":0.045,"logScore":3.101092789211817},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.8067000000000002,"mean":9.2,"median":9,"bias":1.1999999999999993,"maeMean":1.1999999999999993,"maeMedian":1,"low":5,"high":14,"coverage":true,"width":9,"pitLower":0.32,"pitUpper":0.445,"empiricalMass":0.125,"logScore":2.0794415416798357},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":3.0577500000000004,"mean":8.98,"median":3,"bias":0.9800000000000004,"maeMean":0.9800000000000004,"maeMedian":5,"low":0,"high":39,"coverage":true,"width":39,"pitLower":0.695,"pitUpper":0.715,"empiricalMass":0.02,"logScore":3.912023005428146}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"1":0.015,"2":0.015,"3":0.04,"4":0.045,"5":0.05,"6":0.08,"7":0.07,"8":0.06,"9":0.06,"10":0.07,"11":0.055,"12":0.06,"13":0.025,"14":0.03,"15":0.025,"16":0.035,"17":0.045,"18":0.025,"19":0.025,"20":0.025,"21":0.01,"22":0.005,"23":0.02,"24":0.005,"25":0.005,"26":0.015,"27":0.015,"28":0.005,"29":0.01,"30":0.005,"37":0.005,"38":0.015,"39":0.005,"45":0.005,"51":0.005,"57":0.005,"60":0.005,"62":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.01,"1":0.01,"2":0.025,"3":0.065,"4":0.08,"5":0.085,"6":0.055,"7":0.105,"8":0.075,"9":0.035,"10":0.065,"11":0.055,"12":0.05,"13":0.04,"14":0.015,"15":0.025,"16":0.015,"17":0.01,"18":0.035,"19":0.015,"20":0.005,"21":0.01,"22":0.01,"23":0.005,"24":0.01,"25":0.015,"26":0.005,"27":0.005,"29":0.01,"30":0.01,"32":0.005,"34":0.005,"35":0.005,"45":0.005,"48":0.005,"58":0.005,"63":0.005,"95":0.005,"136":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.005,"2":0.025,"3":0.04,"4":0.04,"5":0.055,"6":0.075,"7":0.075,"8":0.085,"9":0.055,"10":0.075,"11":0.095,"12":0.035,"13":0.035,"14":0.025,"15":0.025,"16":0.035,"17":0.02,"18":0.025,"19":0.02,"20":0.035,"21":0.015,"22":0.03,"23":0.005,"24":0.005,"25":0.005,"28":0.005,"29":0.005,"30":0.005,"32":0.005,"34":0.01,"37":0.01,"38":0.005,"41":0.005,"43":0.005,"50":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"5":0.005,"6":0.01,"7":0.015,"8":0.045,"9":0.03,"10":0.07,"11":0.1,"12":0.13,"13":0.115,"14":0.13,"15":0.1,"16":0.07,"17":0.065,"18":0.015,"19":0.03,"20":0.025,"21":0.015,"22":0.025,"25":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"2":0.005,"3":0.005,"4":0.02,"5":0.065,"6":0.09,"7":0.135,"8":0.125,"9":0.145,"10":0.1,"11":0.08,"12":0.08,"13":0.05,"14":0.06,"15":0.015,"16":0.015,"17":0.005,"20":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.275,"1":0.085,"2":0.075,"3":0.075,"4":0.05,"5":0.065,"6":0.05,"7":0.02,"8":0.02,"9":0.01,"10":0.025,"11":0.035,"12":0.005,"13":0.005,"14":0.015,"16":0.005,"18":0.015,"19":0.015,"20":0.015,"21":0.005,"22":0.005,"24":0.015,"26":0.01,"29":0.005,"30":0.005,"31":0.01,"34":0.005,"35":0.005,"36":0.005,"37":0.01,"38":0.005,"39":0.01,"41":0.01,"44":0.005,"47":0.005,"55":0.005,"63":0.005,"66":0.005,"69":0.005,"71":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1582588800000,"validUntil":1583193600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":3,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4361,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2020","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.5922750000000001,"mean":1.485,"median":1,"bias":1.485,"maeMean":1.485,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.34,"empiricalMass":0.34,"logScore":1.0788096613719298},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.5367000000000002,"mean":1.62,"median":1,"bias":1.62,"maeMean":1.62,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":7,"coverage":true,"width":7,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.395,"empiricalMass":0.395,"logScore":0.9288695140810151},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.62235,"mean":1.49,"median":1,"bias":1.49,"maeMean":1.49,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.34,"empiricalMass":0.34,"logScore":1.0788096613719298},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":1.0839,"mean":1.82,"median":2,"bias":1.82,"maeMean":1.82,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.175,"empiricalMass":0.175,"logScore":1.742969305058623},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.890075,"mean":1.585,"median":1,"bias":1.585,"maeMean":1.585,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.225,"empiricalMass":0.225,"logScore":1.491654876777717},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.2933000000000001,"mean":1.84,"median":0,"bias":1.84,"maeMean":1.84,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":9,"coverage":true,"width":9,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.655,"empiricalMass":0.655,"logScore":0.4231200433468851}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.34,"1":0.345,"2":0.14,"3":0.04,"4":0.065,"5":0.03,"6":0.005,"7":0.015,"9":0.015,"12":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.395,"1":0.285,"2":0.125,"3":0.085,"4":0.03,"5":0.015,"6":0.01,"7":0.01,"8":0.01,"9":0.015,"10":0.005,"12":0.005,"14":0.005,"22":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.34,"1":0.305,"2":0.155,"3":0.085,"4":0.04,"5":0.05,"7":0.005,"8":0.005,"9":0.015},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.175,"1":0.255,"2":0.325,"3":0.115,"4":0.095,"5":0.02,"6":0.015},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.225,"1":0.29,"2":0.265,"3":0.15,"4":0.04,"5":0.025,"6":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.655,"1":0.095,"2":0.055,"3":0.05,"4":0.025,"5":0.025,"6":0.01,"7":0.005,"8":0.01,"9":0.02,"10":0.015,"11":0.005,"12":0.005,"17":0.005,"18":0.005,"29":0.01,"35":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1582588800000,"validUntil":1583193600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4361,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2020","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.0247,"mean":0.19,"median":0,"bias":0.19,"maeMean":0.19,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.845,"empiricalMass":0.845,"logScore":0.16841865162496325},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.015750000000000014,"mean":0.19,"median":0,"bias":0.19,"maeMean":0.19,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.88,"empiricalMass":0.88,"logScore":0.12783337150988489},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.023425,"mean":0.185,"median":0,"bias":0.185,"maeMean":0.185,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.85,"empiricalMass":0.85,"logScore":0.16251892949777494},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.04645000000000002,"mean":0.23,"median":0,"bias":0.23,"maeMean":0.23,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.785,"empiricalMass":0.785,"logScore":0.24207156119972859},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.011050000000000004,"mean":0.11,"median":0,"bias":0.11,"maeMean":0.11,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.895,"empiricalMass":0.895,"logScore":0.11093156070728166},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.010725000000000012,"mean":0.135,"median":0,"bias":0.135,"maeMean":0.135,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.9,"empiricalMass":0.9,"logScore":0.10536051565782628}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.845,"1":0.13,"2":0.02,"4":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.88,"1":0.09,"2":0.015,"3":0.005,"5":0.005,"6":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.85,"1":0.12,"2":0.025,"3":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.785,"1":0.2,"2":0.015},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.895,"1":0.1,"2":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.9,"1":0.075,"2":0.015,"3":0.01}}},{"issuedAt":1582588800000,"validUntil":1585180800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":2,"actual":23,"trainingCount":4361,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2020","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":20.7057,"mean":57.66,"median":51,"bias":34.66,"maeMean":34.66,"maeMedian":28,"low":28,"high":108,"coverage":false,"width":80,"pitLower":0.01,"pitUpper":0.02,"empiricalMass":0.01,"logScore":4.605170185988091},"rollingETAS":{"crps":13.641100000000002,"mean":49.74,"median":43,"bias":26.740000000000002,"maeMean":26.740000000000002,"maeMedian":20,"low":21,"high":109,"coverage":true,"width":88,"pitLower":0.065,"pitUpper":0.065,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":21.965899999999998,"mean":58.49,"median":53,"bias":35.49,"maeMean":35.49,"maeMedian":30,"low":28,"high":115,"coverage":false,"width":87,"pitLower":0.02,"pitUpper":0.02,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":31.076349999999998,"mean":58.26,"median":59,"bias":35.26,"maeMean":35.26,"maeMedian":36,"low":46,"high":71,"coverage":false,"width":25,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentPoisson":{"crps":13.084600000000002,"mean":39.67,"median":39,"bias":16.67,"maeMean":16.67,"maeMedian":16,"low":30,"high":50,"coverage":false,"width":20,"pitLower":0.01,"pitUpper":0.01,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":7.577475,"mean":38.395,"median":33.5,"bias":15.395000000000003,"maeMean":15.395000000000003,"maeMedian":10.5,"low":8,"high":89,"coverage":true,"width":81,"pitLower":0.305,"pitUpper":0.325,"empiricalMass":0.02,"logScore":3.912023005428146}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"17":0.005,"20":0.005,"23":0.01,"26":0.005,"27":0.015,"28":0.015,"29":0.01,"30":0.01,"31":0.025,"33":0.035,"34":0.015,"35":0.015,"36":0.015,"37":0.02,"38":0.01,"39":0.02,"40":0.015,"41":0.015,"42":0.05,"43":0.03,"44":0.02,"45":0.035,"46":0.015,"47":0.02,"48":0.015,"49":0.04,"50":0.01,"51":0.02,"52":0.03,"53":0.025,"54":0.03,"55":0.01,"56":0.015,"57":0.025,"58":0.015,"59":0.02,"60":0.025,"61":0.01,"62":0.015,"63":0.015,"64":0.005,"65":0.01,"66":0.01,"67":0.01,"68":0.005,"69":0.005,"70":0.005,"71":0.005,"73":0.015,"74":0.02,"75":0.01,"76":0.005,"87":0.005,"90":0.005,"91":0.01,"93":0.015,"94":0.005,"95":0.005,"96":0.01,"99":0.005,"101":0.005,"103":0.005,"105":0.01,"106":0.005,"108":0.01,"113":0.005,"114":0.005,"115":0.005,"123":0.005,"138":0.005,"143":0.005,"164":0.005,"175":0.005,"180":0.005,"212":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"14":0.02,"18":0.015,"19":0.005,"21":0.015,"22":0.01,"24":0.01,"25":0.01,"26":0.015,"27":0.015,"28":0.05,"29":0.01,"30":0.04,"31":0.02,"32":0.05,"33":0.005,"34":0.045,"35":0.025,"36":0.02,"37":0.03,"38":0.015,"39":0.01,"40":0.01,"41":0.015,"42":0.025,"43":0.03,"44":0.01,"45":0.03,"46":0.005,"47":0.035,"48":0.03,"49":0.035,"50":0.02,"51":0.015,"52":0.015,"53":0.005,"54":0.005,"55":0.005,"56":0.02,"57":0.015,"58":0.01,"59":0.005,"60":0.005,"61":0.015,"64":0.005,"65":0.01,"66":0.005,"67":0.005,"69":0.02,"70":0.01,"71":0.01,"73":0.005,"75":0.005,"77":0.005,"78":0.01,"79":0.005,"81":0.005,"82":0.005,"84":0.005,"85":0.005,"88":0.005,"90":0.005,"93":0.005,"97":0.005,"103":0.005,"106":0.01,"109":0.01,"112":0.01,"113":0.005,"117":0.005,"122":0.005,"144":0.005,"146":0.005,"195":0.005,"203":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"14":0.005,"17":0.005,"19":0.005,"22":0.005,"24":0.01,"27":0.015,"28":0.005,"29":0.02,"30":0.01,"31":0.005,"32":0.02,"33":0.015,"35":0.02,"36":0.01,"37":0.02,"38":0.035,"39":0.03,"40":0.01,"41":0.02,"42":0.035,"43":0.015,"44":0.035,"45":0.025,"46":0.02,"48":0.01,"49":0.02,"50":0.01,"51":0.015,"52":0.02,"53":0.045,"54":0.015,"55":0.015,"56":0.03,"57":0.015,"58":0.035,"59":0.01,"60":0.005,"61":0.015,"62":0.01,"63":0.025,"64":0.015,"65":0.01,"66":0.02,"67":0.01,"68":0.005,"69":0.01,"70":0.005,"72":0.005,"73":0.015,"74":0.015,"75":0.02,"77":0.01,"78":0.01,"79":0.01,"81":0.01,"82":0.01,"85":0.015,"86":0.005,"87":0.01,"89":0.005,"100":0.005,"103":0.005,"106":0.005,"108":0.005,"109":0.005,"110":0.01,"114":0.005,"115":0.01,"117":0.005,"118":0.005,"120":0.005,"121":0.005,"123":0.005,"127":0.005,"132":0.005,"154":0.005,"212":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"42":0.01,"43":0.005,"44":0.02,"45":0.01,"46":0.01,"47":0.025,"48":0.01,"49":0.035,"50":0.02,"51":0.02,"52":0.085,"53":0.045,"54":0.04,"55":0.04,"56":0.035,"57":0.045,"58":0.04,"59":0.055,"60":0.045,"61":0.055,"62":0.07,"63":0.055,"64":0.04,"65":0.035,"66":0.015,"67":0.015,"68":0.02,"69":0.025,"70":0.02,"71":0.015,"72":0.01,"73":0.02,"75":0.005,"79":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"22":0.01,"25":0.005,"28":0.015,"29":0.015,"30":0.035,"31":0.015,"32":0.05,"33":0.03,"34":0.03,"35":0.065,"36":0.02,"37":0.075,"38":0.1,"39":0.05,"40":0.045,"41":0.05,"42":0.06,"43":0.045,"44":0.035,"45":0.065,"46":0.025,"47":0.035,"48":0.035,"49":0.02,"50":0.02,"51":0.03,"52":0.01,"54":0.005,"56":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"4":0.01,"5":0.01,"6":0.005,"7":0.01,"8":0.015,"9":0.015,"10":0.015,"11":0.02,"12":0.025,"13":0.02,"14":0.03,"15":0.04,"16":0.015,"17":0.02,"18":0.01,"19":0.025,"20":0.005,"21":0.01,"22":0.005,"23":0.02,"24":0.02,"25":0.015,"26":0.02,"27":0.025,"28":0.005,"29":0.02,"30":0.015,"31":0.02,"32":0.01,"33":0.025,"34":0.025,"35":0.015,"36":0.025,"37":0.01,"38":0.01,"39":0.015,"40":0.015,"41":0.005,"42":0.01,"43":0.005,"44":0.025,"45":0.03,"46":0.02,"47":0.01,"48":0.005,"50":0.01,"51":0.02,"52":0.02,"53":0.005,"54":0.005,"57":0.01,"58":0.005,"59":0.005,"60":0.005,"61":0.01,"62":0.015,"63":0.01,"64":0.015,"65":0.005,"66":0.015,"68":0.005,"70":0.005,"71":0.005,"73":0.005,"75":0.01,"76":0.005,"77":0.005,"78":0.005,"79":0.005,"81":0.005,"83":0.005,"88":0.005,"89":0.005,"97":0.005,"98":0.005,"99":0.005,"102":0.005,"103":0.005,"107":0.01,"109":0.005,"120":0.005,"130":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1582588800000,"validUntil":1585180800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":3,"actual":1,"trainingCount":4361,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2020","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":3.572025,"mean":7.095,"median":6,"bias":6.095,"maeMean":6.095,"maeMedian":5,"low":1,"high":17,"coverage":true,"width":16,"pitLower":0.01,"pitUpper":0.05,"empiricalMass":0.04,"logScore":3.2188758248682006},"rollingETAS":{"crps":3.0874499999999996,"mean":6.82,"median":6,"bias":5.82,"maeMean":5.82,"maeMedian":5,"low":1,"high":16,"coverage":true,"width":15,"pitLower":0.015,"pitUpper":0.08,"empiricalMass":0.065,"logScore":2.7333680090865},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":3.689525,"mean":7.195,"median":6,"bias":6.195,"maeMean":6.195,"maeMedian":5,"low":2,"high":17,"coverage":false,"width":15,"pitLower":0.005,"pitUpper":0.035,"empiricalMass":0.03,"logScore":3.506557897319982},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":5.643875,"mean":8.155,"median":8,"bias":7.154999999999999,"maeMean":7.154999999999999,"maeMedian":7,"low":4,"high":13,"coverage":false,"width":9,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentPoisson":{"crps":4.27905,"mean":6.78,"median":6,"bias":5.78,"maeMean":5.78,"maeMedian":5,"low":3,"high":11,"coverage":false,"width":8,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.015,"empiricalMass":0.015,"logScore":4.199705077879927},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":2.133375,"mean":6.185,"median":4,"bias":5.185,"maeMean":5.185,"maeMedian":3,"low":0,"high":18,"coverage":true,"width":18,"pitLower":0.135,"pitUpper":0.26,"empiricalMass":0.125,"logScore":2.0794415416798357}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.01,"1":0.04,"2":0.08,"3":0.095,"4":0.13,"5":0.07,"6":0.1,"7":0.125,"8":0.085,"9":0.05,"10":0.045,"11":0.03,"12":0.01,"13":0.025,"14":0.015,"15":0.005,"16":0.02,"17":0.025,"18":0.005,"19":0.005,"20":0.015,"23":0.005,"24":0.005,"32":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.015,"1":0.065,"2":0.115,"3":0.13,"4":0.075,"5":0.09,"6":0.075,"7":0.095,"8":0.08,"9":0.05,"10":0.03,"11":0.02,"12":0.045,"13":0.03,"14":0.005,"15":0.02,"16":0.01,"17":0.005,"18":0.005,"19":0.005,"20":0.005,"24":0.015,"26":0.005,"32":0.005,"36":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.005,"1":0.03,"2":0.1,"3":0.11,"4":0.075,"5":0.09,"6":0.105,"7":0.1,"8":0.1,"9":0.06,"10":0.03,"11":0.035,"12":0.02,"13":0.03,"14":0.035,"15":0.005,"16":0.005,"17":0.025,"18":0.005,"19":0.005,"20":0.015,"21":0.005,"22":0.005,"26":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"2":0.015,"3":0.025,"4":0.04,"5":0.065,"6":0.13,"7":0.135,"8":0.185,"9":0.12,"10":0.105,"11":0.05,"12":0.055,"13":0.055,"14":0.005,"15":0.005,"16":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"1":0.015,"2":0.015,"3":0.06,"4":0.095,"5":0.17,"6":0.185,"7":0.095,"8":0.085,"9":0.12,"10":0.075,"11":0.04,"12":0.01,"13":0.02,"14":0.01,"16":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.135,"1":0.125,"2":0.09,"3":0.11,"4":0.06,"5":0.06,"6":0.07,"7":0.055,"8":0.04,"9":0.035,"10":0.045,"11":0.03,"12":0.02,"13":0.015,"14":0.01,"15":0.01,"16":0.01,"17":0.015,"18":0.015,"20":0.005,"21":0.005,"22":0.005,"24":0.005,"27":0.005,"28":0.005,"29":0.005,"30":0.005,"34":0.005,"41":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1582588800000,"validUntil":1585180800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4361,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2020","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.23287499999999994,"mean":0.735,"median":0,"bias":0.735,"maeMean":0.735,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.555,"empiricalMass":0.555,"logScore":0.5887871652357024},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.309025,"mean":0.945,"median":0,"bias":0.945,"maeMean":0.945,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.52,"empiricalMass":0.52,"logScore":0.6539264674066639},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.24797500000000006,"mean":0.765,"median":0,"bias":0.765,"maeMean":0.765,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.545,"empiricalMass":0.545,"logScore":0.6069694843188929},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.51905,"mean":1.07,"median":1,"bias":1.07,"maeMean":1.07,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.33,"empiricalMass":0.33,"logScore":1.1086626245216111},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.21489999999999998,"mean":0.61,"median":0,"bias":0.61,"maeMean":0.61,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.555,"empiricalMass":0.555,"logScore":0.5887871652357024},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.187075,"mean":0.615,"median":0,"bias":0.615,"maeMean":0.615,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.6,"empiricalMass":0.6,"logScore":0.5108256237659907}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.555,"1":0.275,"2":0.1,"3":0.04,"4":0.02,"5":0.005,"7":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.52,"1":0.23,"2":0.145,"3":0.04,"4":0.04,"5":0.01,"6":0.01,"7":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.545,"1":0.265,"2":0.13,"3":0.03,"4":0.015,"5":0.005,"6":0.005,"7":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.33,"1":0.435,"2":0.12,"3":0.075,"4":0.03,"5":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.555,"1":0.32,"2":0.09,"3":0.03,"4":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.6,"1":0.24,"2":0.125,"3":0.02,"4":0.01,"5":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1585180800000,"validUntil":1585267200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":2,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4384,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2020","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.4722250000000001,"mean":1.445,"median":1,"bias":1.445,"maeMean":1.445,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":6,"coverage":true,"width":6,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.44,"empiricalMass":0.44,"logScore":0.8209805520698302},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.4610750000000001,"mean":1.245,"median":1,"bias":1.245,"maeMean":1.245,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.425,"empiricalMass":0.425,"logScore":0.8556661100577202},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.48985,"mean":1.48,"median":1,"bias":1.48,"maeMean":1.48,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":6,"coverage":true,"width":6,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.435,"empiricalMass":0.435,"logScore":0.8324092478934529},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":1.261425,"mean":1.935,"median":2,"bias":1.935,"maeMean":1.935,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.12,"empiricalMass":0.12,"logScore":2.120263536200091},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.553775,"mean":1.145,"median":1,"bias":1.145,"maeMean":1.145,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.335,"empiricalMass":0.335,"logScore":1.0936247471570706},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.26402499999999995,"mean":1.555,"median":0,"bias":1.555,"maeMean":1.555,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":9,"coverage":true,"width":9,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.67,"empiricalMass":0.67,"logScore":0.40047756659712525}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.44,"1":0.27,"2":0.09,"3":0.065,"4":0.035,"5":0.04,"6":0.02,"7":0.015,"8":0.005,"9":0.015,"12":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.425,"1":0.275,"2":0.13,"3":0.075,"4":0.055,"5":0.02,"6":0.005,"7":0.005,"10":0.01},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.435,"1":0.225,"2":0.155,"3":0.08,"4":0.04,"5":0.01,"6":0.02,"7":0.02,"8":0.005,"18":0.005,"21":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.12,"1":0.27,"2":0.28,"3":0.26,"4":0.04,"5":0.015,"6":0.015},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.335,"1":0.36,"2":0.175,"3":0.09,"4":0.035,"5":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.67,"1":0.1,"2":0.04,"3":0.05,"4":0.01,"5":0.035,"6":0.02,"7":0.01,"8":0.01,"9":0.005,"10":0.005,"11":0.01,"12":0.005,"13":0.01,"14":0.005,"15":0.005,"19":0.005,"21":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1585180800000,"validUntil":1585267200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":3,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4384,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2020","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.017600000000000005,"mean":0.17,"median":0,"bias":0.17,"maeMean":0.17,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.87,"empiricalMass":0.87,"logScore":0.13926206733350766},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.010425000000000004,"mean":0.125,"median":0,"bias":0.125,"maeMean":0.125,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.9,"empiricalMass":0.9,"logScore":0.10536051565782628},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.0179,"mean":0.18,"median":0,"bias":0.18,"maeMean":0.18,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.87,"empiricalMass":0.87,"logScore":0.13926206733350766},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.046125,"mean":0.255,"median":0,"bias":0.255,"maeMean":0.255,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.79,"empiricalMass":0.79,"logScore":0.23572233352106983},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.053550000000000014,"mean":0.26,"median":0,"bias":0.26,"maeMean":0.26,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.77,"empiricalMass":0.77,"logScore":0.2613647641344075},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.014475000000000016,"mean":0.305,"median":0,"bias":0.305,"maeMean":0.305,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.905,"empiricalMass":0.905,"logScore":0.0998203352822109}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.87,"1":0.105,"2":0.02,"5":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.9,"1":0.08,"2":0.015,"3":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.87,"1":0.1,"2":0.025,"6":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.79,"1":0.165,"2":0.045},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.77,"1":0.205,"2":0.02,"3":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.905,"1":0.04,"2":0.025,"3":0.005,"4":0.01,"6":0.005,"8":0.005,"18":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1585180800000,"validUntil":1585267200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4384,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2020","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.0006250000000000006,"mean":0.025,"median":0,"bias":0.025,"maeMean":0.025,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.975,"empiricalMass":0.975,"logScore":0.025317807984289897},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.0006250000000000006,"mean":0.025,"median":0,"bias":0.025,"maeMean":0.025,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.975,"empiricalMass":0.975,"logScore":0.025317807984289897},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.0010000000000000009,"mean":0.04,"median":0,"bias":0.04,"maeMean":0.04,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.97,"empiricalMass":0.97,"logScore":0.030459207484708574},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.0002249999999999995,"mean":0.015,"median":0,"bias":0.015,"maeMean":0.015,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.985,"empiricalMass":0.985,"logScore":0.015113637810048184},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.00040000000000000105,"mean":0.02,"median":0,"bias":0.02,"maeMean":0.02,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.98,"empiricalMass":0.98,"logScore":0.020202707317519466},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.0000999999999999994,"mean":0.01,"median":0,"bias":0.01,"maeMean":0.01,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.99,"empiricalMass":0.99,"logScore":0.01005033585350145}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.975,"1":0.025},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.975,"1":0.025},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.97,"1":0.02,"2":0.01},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.985,"1":0.015},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.98,"1":0.02},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.99,"1":0.01}}},{"issuedAt":1585180800000,"validUntil":1585785600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":2,"actual":3,"trainingCount":4384,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2020","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":4.8949,"mean":12.81,"median":10,"bias":9.81,"maeMean":9.81,"maeMedian":7,"low":3,"high":32,"coverage":true,"width":29,"pitLower":0.015,"pitUpper":0.065,"empiricalMass":0.05,"logScore":2.995732273553991},"rollingETAS":{"crps":3.826624999999999,"mean":10.935,"median":8.5,"bias":7.9350000000000005,"maeMean":7.9350000000000005,"maeMedian":5.5,"low":2,"high":28,"coverage":true,"width":26,"pitLower":0.085,"pitUpper":0.125,"empiricalMass":0.04,"logScore":3.2188758248682006},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":4.540675,"mean":11.105,"median":10,"bias":8.105,"maeMean":8.105,"maeMedian":7,"low":3,"high":23,"coverage":true,"width":20,"pitLower":0.03,"pitUpper":0.07,"empiricalMass":0.04,"logScore":3.2188758248682006},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":8.215250000000001,"mean":13.4,"median":13,"bias":10.4,"maeMean":10.4,"maeMedian":10,"low":7,"high":20,"coverage":false,"width":13,"pitLower":0.005,"pitUpper":0.005,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentPoisson":{"crps":4.336525,"mean":8.895,"median":9,"bias":5.895,"maeMean":5.895,"maeMedian":6,"low":5,"high":14,"coverage":false,"width":9,"pitLower":0.005,"pitUpper":0.005,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":1.8916250000000003,"mean":7.915,"median":3,"bias":4.915,"maeMean":4.915,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":31,"coverage":true,"width":31,"pitLower":0.47,"pitUpper":0.515,"empiricalMass":0.045,"logScore":3.101092789211817}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"1":0.005,"2":0.01,"3":0.05,"4":0.065,"5":0.065,"6":0.035,"7":0.095,"8":0.095,"9":0.07,"10":0.055,"11":0.055,"12":0.06,"13":0.025,"14":0.06,"15":0.03,"16":0.015,"17":0.02,"18":0.02,"19":0.02,"20":0.01,"21":0.005,"22":0.02,"24":0.015,"25":0.005,"27":0.005,"29":0.005,"30":0.015,"31":0.015,"32":0.005,"34":0.005,"35":0.005,"36":0.01,"41":0.01,"47":0.005,"48":0.005,"55":0.005,"105":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.02,"1":0.025,"2":0.04,"3":0.04,"4":0.075,"5":0.08,"6":0.075,"7":0.075,"8":0.07,"9":0.065,"10":0.065,"11":0.025,"12":0.025,"13":0.04,"14":0.04,"15":0.03,"16":0.015,"17":0.02,"18":0.005,"19":0.025,"20":0.03,"21":0.035,"22":0.005,"23":0.005,"24":0.005,"25":0.005,"28":0.025,"29":0.005,"31":0.005,"37":0.005,"42":0.005,"48":0.005,"51":0.005,"59":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"1":0.005,"2":0.025,"3":0.04,"4":0.065,"5":0.08,"6":0.08,"7":0.08,"8":0.03,"9":0.045,"10":0.07,"11":0.085,"12":0.07,"13":0.035,"14":0.05,"15":0.03,"16":0.055,"17":0.03,"18":0.015,"19":0.015,"20":0.025,"22":0.015,"23":0.005,"25":0.005,"26":0.005,"28":0.005,"30":0.005,"31":0.01,"32":0.005,"33":0.005,"34":0.005,"53":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"2":0.005,"5":0.005,"6":0.01,"7":0.05,"8":0.045,"9":0.04,"10":0.09,"11":0.04,"12":0.145,"13":0.11,"14":0.085,"15":0.085,"16":0.07,"17":0.07,"18":0.045,"19":0.025,"20":0.045,"21":0.015,"22":0.01,"23":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.005,"4":0.035,"5":0.075,"6":0.1,"7":0.11,"8":0.115,"9":0.205,"10":0.085,"11":0.07,"12":0.095,"13":0.035,"14":0.04,"15":0.01,"16":0.02},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.265,"1":0.125,"2":0.08,"3":0.045,"4":0.045,"5":0.05,"6":0.03,"7":0.035,"8":0.025,"9":0.01,"10":0.02,"11":0.035,"12":0.015,"13":0.02,"14":0.015,"15":0.01,"16":0.02,"18":0.025,"20":0.015,"21":0.015,"22":0.005,"23":0.005,"24":0.01,"27":0.005,"28":0.01,"30":0.01,"31":0.005,"32":0.01,"37":0.005,"38":0.005,"40":0.005,"43":0.005,"44":0.005,"51":0.005,"54":0.005,"78":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1585180800000,"validUntil":1585785600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":3,"actual":1,"trainingCount":4384,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2020","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.3760999999999999,"mean":1.61,"median":1,"bias":0.6100000000000001,"maeMean":0.6100000000000001,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":6,"coverage":true,"width":6,"pitLower":0.395,"pitUpper":0.63,"empiricalMass":0.235,"logScore":1.448169764837978},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.3547500000000001,"mean":1.63,"median":1,"bias":0.6299999999999999,"maeMean":0.6299999999999999,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":6,"coverage":true,"width":6,"pitLower":0.37,"pitUpper":0.64,"empiricalMass":0.27,"logScore":1.3093333199837622},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.30500000000000005,"mean":1.25,"median":1,"bias":0.25,"maeMean":0.25,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.39,"pitUpper":0.655,"empiricalMass":0.265,"logScore":1.3280254529959148},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.3409749999999999,"mean":1.725,"median":2,"bias":0.7250000000000001,"maeMean":0.7250000000000001,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.15,"pitUpper":0.495,"empiricalMass":0.345,"logScore":1.0642108619507773},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.32447499999999996,"mean":1.505,"median":1,"bias":0.5049999999999999,"maeMean":0.5049999999999999,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.225,"pitUpper":0.51,"empiricalMass":0.285,"logScore":1.2552660987134867},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.587675,"mean":1.485,"median":0,"bias":0.4850000000000001,"maeMean":0.4850000000000001,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":8,"coverage":true,"width":8,"pitLower":0.65,"pitUpper":0.725,"empiricalMass":0.075,"logScore":2.5902671654458267}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.395,"1":0.235,"2":0.16,"3":0.065,"4":0.035,"5":0.045,"6":0.03,"7":0.02,"8":0.01,"19":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.37,"1":0.27,"2":0.125,"3":0.11,"4":0.03,"5":0.025,"6":0.025,"7":0.015,"8":0.01,"9":0.01,"10":0.005,"12":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.39,"1":0.265,"2":0.185,"3":0.075,"4":0.055,"5":0.02,"6":0.005,"8":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.15,"1":0.345,"2":0.28,"3":0.115,"4":0.085,"5":0.015,"6":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.225,"1":0.285,"2":0.315,"3":0.12,"4":0.045,"5":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.65,"1":0.075,"2":0.08,"3":0.06,"4":0.025,"5":0.025,"6":0.01,"7":0.02,"8":0.01,"9":0.01,"11":0.015,"12":0.01,"14":0.005,"24":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1585180800000,"validUntil":1585785600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4384,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2020","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.02805000000000002,"mean":0.23,"median":0,"bias":0.23,"maeMean":0.23,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.84,"empiricalMass":0.84,"logScore":0.1743533871447778},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.037424999999999986,"mean":0.235,"median":0,"bias":0.235,"maeMean":0.235,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.81,"empiricalMass":0.81,"logScore":0.21072103131565253},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.008125000000000007,"mean":0.095,"median":0,"bias":0.095,"maeMean":0.095,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.91,"empiricalMass":0.91,"logScore":0.09431067947124129},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.04005,"mean":0.21,"median":0,"bias":0.21,"maeMean":0.21,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.8,"empiricalMass":0.8,"logScore":0.2231435513142097},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.009124999999999994,"mean":0.105,"median":0,"bias":0.105,"maeMean":0.105,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.905,"empiricalMass":0.905,"logScore":0.0998203352822109},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.005150000000000002,"mean":0.09,"median":0,"bias":0.09,"maeMean":0.09,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.93,"empiricalMass":0.93,"logScore":0.07257069283483537}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.84,"1":0.115,"2":0.025,"3":0.015,"4":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.81,"1":0.155,"2":0.025,"3":0.01},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.91,"1":0.085,"2":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.8,"1":0.195,"3":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.905,"1":0.085,"2":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.93,"1":0.055,"2":0.01,"3":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1585180800000,"validUntil":1587772800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":2,"actual":22,"trainingCount":4384,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2020","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":21.318299999999997,"mean":57.24,"median":51,"bias":35.24,"maeMean":35.24,"maeMedian":29,"low":27,"high":112,"coverage":false,"width":85,"pitLower":0.01,"pitUpper":0.02,"empiricalMass":0.01,"logScore":4.605170185988091},"rollingETAS":{"crps":17.081300000000002,"mean":56.88,"median":45.5,"bias":34.88,"maeMean":34.88,"maeMedian":23.5,"low":23,"high":145,"coverage":false,"width":122,"pitLower":0.035,"pitUpper":0.04,"empiricalMass":0.005,"logScore":5.298317366548036},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":21.7556,"mean":58.41,"median":51,"bias":36.41,"maeMean":36.41,"maeMedian":29,"low":24,"high":115,"coverage":false,"width":91,"pitLower":0.02,"pitUpper":0.025,"empiricalMass":0.005,"logScore":5.298317366548036},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":30.506449999999997,"mean":57.08,"median":57,"bias":35.08,"maeMean":35.08,"maeMedian":35,"low":45,"high":70,"coverage":false,"width":25,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentPoisson":{"crps":11.810175000000001,"mean":37.185,"median":37,"bias":15.185000000000002,"maeMean":15.185000000000002,"maeMedian":15,"low":28,"high":48,"coverage":false,"width":20,"pitLower":0.005,"pitUpper":0.005,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":5.969150000000001,"mean":34.19,"median":29,"bias":12.189999999999998,"maeMean":12.189999999999998,"maeMedian":7,"low":6,"high":83,"coverage":true,"width":77,"pitLower":0.33,"pitUpper":0.35,"empiricalMass":0.02,"logScore":3.912023005428146}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"21":0.01,"22":0.01,"24":0.005,"25":0.015,"26":0.005,"27":0.015,"28":0.01,"29":0.01,"30":0.01,"31":0.015,"32":0.01,"33":0.025,"34":0.015,"35":0.02,"36":0.02,"37":0.03,"38":0.005,"39":0.03,"40":0.015,"41":0.04,"42":0.03,"43":0.03,"44":0.005,"45":0.02,"46":0.005,"47":0.03,"48":0.035,"49":0.01,"50":0.015,"51":0.02,"52":0.015,"53":0.02,"54":0.005,"55":0.005,"56":0.02,"57":0.03,"58":0.015,"59":0.025,"60":0.02,"61":0.015,"62":0.035,"63":0.015,"64":0.005,"65":0.015,"66":0.01,"68":0.015,"69":0.005,"70":0.01,"71":0.015,"72":0.005,"73":0.01,"75":0.005,"76":0.01,"77":0.005,"81":0.015,"84":0.005,"88":0.01,"90":0.005,"92":0.01,"93":0.005,"99":0.005,"101":0.005,"102":0.005,"105":0.015,"106":0.01,"108":0.005,"109":0.005,"112":0.005,"113":0.005,"117":0.005,"124":0.005,"133":0.01,"138":0.01,"144":0.005,"152":0.005,"165":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"8":0.005,"13":0.005,"15":0.005,"19":0.005,"21":0.015,"22":0.005,"23":0.025,"24":0.035,"25":0.005,"26":0.02,"27":0.015,"28":0.015,"29":0.01,"30":0.03,"31":0.01,"32":0.03,"33":0.035,"34":0.005,"35":0.035,"36":0.03,"37":0.035,"38":0.03,"39":0.01,"41":0.025,"42":0.005,"43":0.02,"44":0.015,"45":0.02,"46":0.015,"47":0.015,"48":0.005,"49":0.015,"51":0.005,"52":0.015,"53":0.01,"54":0.025,"55":0.015,"57":0.015,"58":0.015,"59":0.005,"60":0.015,"61":0.04,"62":0.01,"63":0.015,"64":0.01,"65":0.01,"68":0.01,"69":0.005,"72":0.01,"73":0.02,"74":0.005,"75":0.005,"78":0.015,"79":0.01,"80":0.005,"81":0.005,"82":0.02,"83":0.01,"84":0.005,"87":0.015,"89":0.005,"90":0.01,"97":0.005,"98":0.005,"100":0.005,"112":0.005,"125":0.005,"134":0.005,"143":0.005,"145":0.005,"147":0.005,"163":0.005,"169":0.005,"172":0.005,"177":0.005,"189":0.005,"195":0.005,"201":0.005,"228":0.005,"234":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"19":0.02,"22":0.005,"23":0.015,"24":0.01,"25":0.02,"27":0.005,"28":0.005,"30":0.01,"31":0.01,"32":0.01,"33":0.005,"34":0.015,"35":0.015,"36":0.03,"37":0.025,"38":0.005,"39":0.02,"40":0.03,"41":0.035,"42":0.025,"43":0.025,"44":0.025,"45":0.015,"46":0.02,"47":0.015,"48":0.01,"49":0.02,"50":0.035,"51":0.035,"52":0.035,"53":0.005,"54":0.02,"55":0.01,"56":0.025,"57":0.01,"58":0.01,"59":0.02,"60":0.01,"61":0.02,"62":0.025,"63":0.02,"64":0.015,"66":0.01,"67":0.015,"69":0.005,"72":0.005,"73":0.015,"74":0.01,"75":0.005,"78":0.01,"79":0.005,"81":0.015,"82":0.01,"83":0.02,"85":0.005,"86":0.005,"87":0.01,"88":0.005,"89":0.005,"91":0.005,"92":0.005,"93":0.015,"94":0.005,"98":0.005,"102":0.005,"107":0.005,"111":0.005,"115":0.01,"124":0.005,"127":0.005,"133":0.005,"143":0.005,"170":0.005,"180":0.005,"184":0.005,"185":0.005,"191":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"36":0.01,"39":0.005,"42":0.01,"43":0.005,"44":0.015,"45":0.015,"46":0.03,"47":0.035,"48":0.03,"49":0.045,"50":0.025,"51":0.025,"52":0.035,"53":0.04,"54":0.03,"55":0.06,"56":0.06,"57":0.07,"58":0.075,"59":0.04,"60":0.03,"61":0.015,"62":0.045,"63":0.045,"64":0.02,"65":0.03,"66":0.035,"67":0.02,"68":0.01,"69":0.02,"70":0.025,"71":0.015,"73":0.005,"75":0.005,"76":0.005,"79":0.005,"80":0.005,"86":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"20":0.005,"24":0.005,"25":0.005,"26":0.015,"27":0.015,"28":0.015,"29":0.03,"30":0.035,"31":0.035,"32":0.04,"33":0.055,"34":0.11,"35":0.075,"36":0.04,"37":0.085,"38":0.065,"39":0.04,"40":0.055,"41":0.05,"42":0.03,"43":0.05,"44":0.01,"45":0.035,"46":0.025,"47":0.015,"48":0.015,"49":0.015,"50":0.01,"51":0.005,"53":0.005,"54":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.005,"3":0.005,"4":0.025,"6":0.015,"7":0.01,"8":0.015,"9":0.025,"10":0.03,"11":0.015,"12":0.015,"13":0.03,"14":0.005,"15":0.02,"16":0.015,"17":0.02,"18":0.03,"19":0.015,"20":0.02,"21":0.015,"22":0.02,"23":0.035,"24":0.015,"25":0.025,"26":0.015,"27":0.03,"28":0.025,"29":0.01,"30":0.015,"31":0.02,"32":0.01,"33":0.025,"34":0.025,"35":0.005,"36":0.01,"37":0.01,"38":0.035,"39":0.02,"40":0.03,"41":0.005,"42":0.01,"43":0.005,"44":0.01,"45":0.025,"46":0.015,"47":0.01,"48":0.015,"49":0.005,"52":0.005,"53":0.005,"54":0.005,"55":0.015,"56":0.015,"57":0.01,"58":0.01,"59":0.02,"62":0.005,"66":0.005,"70":0.01,"71":0.005,"72":0.005,"73":0.005,"74":0.01,"80":0.005,"83":0.005,"85":0.01,"86":0.005,"88":0.005,"91":0.005,"94":0.005,"101":0.005,"113":0.005,"127":0.005,"140":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1585180800000,"validUntil":1587772800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":3,"actual":2,"trainingCount":4384,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2020","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":2.5488499999999994,"mean":6.86,"median":6,"bias":4.86,"maeMean":4.86,"maeMedian":4,"low":1,"high":17,"coverage":true,"width":16,"pitLower":0.06,"pitUpper":0.145,"empiricalMass":0.085,"logScore":2.4651040224918206},"rollingETAS":{"crps":2.78755,"mean":8.11,"median":6,"bias":6.109999999999999,"maeMean":6.109999999999999,"maeMedian":4,"low":1,"high":25,"coverage":true,"width":24,"pitLower":0.075,"pitUpper":0.17,"empiricalMass":0.095,"logScore":2.353878387381596},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":2.46485,"mean":6.95,"median":6,"bias":4.95,"maeMean":4.95,"maeMedian":4,"low":1,"high":16,"coverage":true,"width":15,"pitLower":0.065,"pitUpper":0.12,"empiricalMass":0.055,"logScore":2.900422093749666},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":4.51725,"mean":8.01,"median":8,"bias":6.01,"maeMean":6.01,"maeMedian":6,"low":4,"high":12,"coverage":false,"width":8,"pitLower":0.005,"pitUpper":0.005,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentPoisson":{"crps":2.5443999999999996,"mean":5.8,"median":6,"bias":3.8,"maeMean":3.8,"maeMedian":4,"low":3,"high":10,"coverage":false,"width":7,"pitLower":0.01,"pitUpper":0.045,"empiricalMass":0.035,"logScore":3.3524072174927233},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":1.74335,"mean":6.78,"median":4,"bias":4.78,"maeMean":4.78,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":19,"coverage":true,"width":19,"pitLower":0.275,"pitUpper":0.37,"empiricalMass":0.095,"logScore":2.353878387381596}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.02,"1":0.04,"2":0.085,"3":0.11,"4":0.09,"5":0.105,"6":0.095,"7":0.11,"8":0.06,"9":0.07,"10":0.06,"11":0.035,"12":0.015,"13":0.02,"14":0.02,"15":0.005,"17":0.01,"18":0.01,"19":0.01,"20":0.01,"21":0.01,"22":0.005,"29":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.02,"1":0.055,"2":0.095,"3":0.1,"4":0.095,"5":0.06,"6":0.085,"7":0.065,"8":0.08,"9":0.055,"10":0.07,"11":0.035,"12":0.01,"13":0.04,"14":0.025,"15":0.015,"16":0.015,"17":0.01,"19":0.005,"20":0.005,"22":0.005,"25":0.005,"26":0.005,"28":0.005,"29":0.005,"31":0.01,"32":0.005,"33":0.005,"35":0.005,"41":0.005,"43":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.015,"1":0.05,"2":0.055,"3":0.145,"4":0.115,"5":0.095,"6":0.105,"7":0.08,"8":0.075,"9":0.065,"10":0.04,"11":0.04,"12":0.015,"13":0.02,"14":0.02,"16":0.015,"20":0.015,"24":0.005,"25":0.01,"27":0.01,"28":0.005,"33":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"1":0.005,"3":0.04,"4":0.04,"5":0.11,"6":0.1,"7":0.115,"8":0.16,"9":0.17,"10":0.115,"11":0.06,"12":0.04,"13":0.005,"14":0.025,"15":0.005,"16":0.005,"20":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"1":0.01,"2":0.035,"3":0.13,"4":0.135,"5":0.165,"6":0.16,"7":0.145,"8":0.11,"9":0.04,"10":0.035,"11":0.03,"14":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.165,"1":0.11,"2":0.095,"3":0.105,"4":0.055,"5":0.05,"6":0.045,"7":0.05,"8":0.055,"9":0.03,"10":0.04,"11":0.015,"12":0.02,"13":0.02,"14":0.03,"15":0.01,"16":0.01,"17":0.01,"18":0.01,"19":0.025,"20":0.005,"23":0.005,"29":0.005,"30":0.01,"36":0.005,"38":0.005,"39":0.005,"49":0.005,"55":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1585180800000,"validUntil":1587772800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4384,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2020","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.2449,"mean":0.79,"median":0,"bias":0.79,"maeMean":0.79,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.565,"empiricalMass":0.565,"logScore":0.5709295478356962},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.3677250000000001,"mean":1.175,"median":1,"bias":1.175,"maeMean":1.175,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.495,"empiricalMass":0.495,"logScore":0.7031975164134467},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.2519,"mean":0.81,"median":0,"bias":0.81,"maeMean":0.81,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.535,"empiricalMass":0.535,"logScore":0.6254885320861304},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.503875,"mean":1.045,"median":1,"bias":1.045,"maeMean":1.045,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.355,"empiricalMass":0.355,"logScore":1.0356374895067213},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.18372500000000003,"mean":0.515,"median":0,"bias":0.515,"maeMean":0.515,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.58,"empiricalMass":0.58,"logScore":0.5447271754416722},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.14097499999999996,"mean":0.575,"median":0,"bias":0.575,"maeMean":0.575,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.65,"empiricalMass":0.65,"logScore":0.4307829160924542}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.565,"1":0.22,"2":0.125,"3":0.055,"4":0.025,"5":0.005,"6":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.495,"1":0.22,"2":0.15,"3":0.05,"4":0.035,"5":0.01,"6":0.01,"8":0.02,"9":0.005,"10":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.535,"1":0.3,"2":0.1,"3":0.015,"4":0.015,"5":0.015,"6":0.01,"7":0.01},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.355,"1":0.365,"2":0.185,"3":0.075,"4":0.015,"5":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.58,"1":0.335,"2":0.075,"3":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.65,"1":0.225,"2":0.075,"3":0.04,"5":0.005,"11":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1587772800000,"validUntil":1587859200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":2,"actual":2,"trainingCount":4406,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2020","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.6521249999999998,"mean":1.805,"median":1,"bias":-0.19500000000000006,"maeMean":0.19500000000000006,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":7,"coverage":true,"width":7,"pitLower":0.635,"pitUpper":0.77,"empiricalMass":0.135,"logScore":2.0024805005437076},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.7523249999999999,"mean":1.415,"median":1,"bias":-0.585,"maeMean":0.585,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.72,"pitUpper":0.855,"empiricalMass":0.135,"logScore":2.0024805005437076},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.7098749999999999,"mean":1.355,"median":1,"bias":-0.645,"maeMean":0.645,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.71,"pitUpper":0.825,"empiricalMass":0.115,"logScore":2.162823150618887},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.261675,"mean":1.875,"median":2,"bias":-0.125,"maeMean":0.125,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.39,"pitUpper":0.735,"empiricalMass":0.345,"logScore":1.0642108619507773},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.6450250000000001,"mean":1.135,"median":1,"bias":-0.865,"maeMean":0.865,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.725,"pitUpper":0.88,"empiricalMass":0.155,"logScore":1.8643301620628905},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":1.1967500000000002,"mean":1.47,"median":0,"bias":-0.53,"maeMean":0.53,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":8,"coverage":true,"width":8,"pitLower":0.815,"pitUpper":0.855,"empiricalMass":0.04,"logScore":3.2188758248682006}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.37,"1":0.265,"2":0.135,"3":0.06,"4":0.045,"5":0.05,"6":0.01,"7":0.02,"9":0.03,"11":0.005,"13":0.005,"14":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.45,"1":0.27,"2":0.135,"3":0.07,"4":0.045,"6":0.015,"7":0.005,"33":0.005,"39":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.405,"1":0.305,"2":0.115,"3":0.09,"4":0.04,"5":0.025,"7":0.005,"9":0.005,"12":0.005,"25":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.155,"1":0.235,"2":0.345,"3":0.145,"4":0.09,"5":0.025,"6":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.32,"1":0.405,"2":0.155,"3":0.07,"4":0.04,"5":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.685,"1":0.13,"2":0.04,"3":0.045,"4":0.005,"5":0.015,"6":0.015,"7":0.01,"8":0.005,"9":0.01,"10":0.005,"11":0.01,"12":0.005,"16":0.005,"23":0.01,"42":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1587772800000,"validUntil":1587859200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":3,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4406,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2020","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.0383,"mean":0.29,"median":0,"bias":0.29,"maeMean":0.29,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.82,"empiricalMass":0.82,"logScore":0.19845093872383832},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.012075000000000002,"mean":0.175,"median":0,"bias":0.175,"maeMean":0.175,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.895,"empiricalMass":0.895,"logScore":0.11093156070728166},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.010575000000000001,"mean":0.145,"median":0,"bias":0.145,"maeMean":0.145,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.9,"empiricalMass":0.9,"logScore":0.10536051565782628},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.060925000000000035,"mean":0.275,"median":0,"bias":0.275,"maeMean":0.275,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.755,"empiricalMass":0.755,"logScore":0.28103752973311236},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.02562500000000001,"mean":0.165,"median":0,"bias":0.165,"maeMean":0.165,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.84,"empiricalMass":0.84,"logScore":0.1743533871447778},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.0025000000000000022,"mean":0.12,"median":0,"bias":0.12,"maeMean":0.12,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.965,"empiricalMass":0.965,"logScore":0.03562717764315116}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.82,"1":0.11,"2":0.04,"3":0.02,"4":0.01},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.895,"1":0.08,"2":0.015,"6":0.005,"7":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.9,"1":0.08,"2":0.01,"3":0.005,"6":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.755,"1":0.215,"2":0.03},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.84,"1":0.155,"2":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.965,"1":0.015,"3":0.005,"4":0.005,"6":0.005,"8":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1587772800000,"validUntil":1587859200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4406,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2020","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.0025249999999999995,"mean":0.055,"median":0,"bias":0.055,"maeMean":0.055,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.95,"empiricalMass":0.95,"logScore":0.05129329438755058},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.0005000000000000004,"mean":0.03,"median":0,"bias":0.03,"maeMean":0.03,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.98,"empiricalMass":0.98,"logScore":0.020202707317519466},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.0000999999999999994,"mean":0.01,"median":0,"bias":0.01,"maeMean":0.01,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.99,"empiricalMass":0.99,"logScore":0.01005033585350145},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.0012250000000000039,"mean":0.035,"median":0,"bias":0.035,"maeMean":0.035,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.965,"empiricalMass":0.965,"logScore":0.03562717764315116},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.00002499999999999985,"mean":0.005,"median":0,"bias":0.005,"maeMean":0.005,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.995,"empiricalMass":0.995,"logScore":0.005012541823544286},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.0009250000000000022,"mean":0.035,"median":0,"bias":0.035,"maeMean":0.035,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.97,"empiricalMass":0.97,"logScore":0.030459207484708574}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.95,"1":0.045,"2":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.98,"1":0.01,"2":0.01},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.99,"1":0.01},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.965,"1":0.035},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.995,"1":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.97,"1":0.025,"2":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1587772800000,"validUntil":1588377600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":2,"actual":8,"trainingCount":4406,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2020","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":1.5541,"mean":11.21,"median":9,"bias":3.210000000000001,"maeMean":3.210000000000001,"maeMedian":1,"low":3,"high":27,"coverage":true,"width":24,"pitLower":0.405,"pitUpper":0.485,"empiricalMass":0.08,"logScore":2.5257286443082556},"rollingETAS":{"crps":1.6075249999999999,"mean":10.735,"median":8,"bias":2.7349999999999994,"maeMean":2.7349999999999994,"maeMedian":0,"low":1,"high":28,"coverage":true,"width":27,"pitLower":0.49,"pitUpper":0.545,"empiricalMass":0.055,"logScore":2.900422093749666},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":1.5526499999999999,"mean":11.5,"median":10,"bias":3.5,"maeMean":3.5,"maeMedian":2,"low":3,"high":23,"coverage":true,"width":20,"pitLower":0.3,"pitUpper":0.37,"empiricalMass":0.07,"logScore":2.659260036932778},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":3.53525,"mean":13.16,"median":13,"bias":5.16,"maeMean":5.16,"maeMedian":5,"low":8,"high":19,"coverage":true,"width":11,"pitLower":0.04,"pitUpper":0.07,"empiricalMass":0.03,"logScore":3.506557897319982},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.8068,"mean":8.88,"median":9,"bias":0.8800000000000008,"maeMean":0.8800000000000008,"maeMedian":1,"low":5,"high":14,"coverage":true,"width":9,"pitLower":0.37,"pitUpper":0.475,"empiricalMass":0.105,"logScore":2.2537949288246137},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":2.797925000000001,"mean":9.055,"median":4,"bias":1.0549999999999997,"maeMean":1.0549999999999997,"maeMedian":4,"low":0,"high":31,"coverage":true,"width":31,"pitLower":0.64,"pitUpper":0.65,"empiricalMass":0.01,"logScore":4.605170185988091}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"1":0.025,"2":0.02,"3":0.025,"4":0.085,"5":0.095,"6":0.085,"7":0.07,"8":0.08,"9":0.065,"10":0.05,"11":0.045,"12":0.04,"13":0.045,"14":0.035,"15":0.03,"16":0.025,"17":0.02,"18":0.03,"19":0.015,"20":0.005,"21":0.005,"22":0.005,"24":0.015,"25":0.015,"26":0.015,"27":0.005,"28":0.005,"29":0.005,"30":0.005,"32":0.005,"34":0.005,"36":0.005,"37":0.005,"43":0.005,"49":0.005,"60":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.015,"1":0.035,"2":0.055,"3":0.06,"4":0.1,"5":0.09,"6":0.06,"7":0.075,"8":0.055,"9":0.06,"10":0.045,"11":0.055,"12":0.025,"13":0.04,"14":0.03,"15":0.015,"16":0.015,"17":0.015,"18":0.01,"19":0.015,"21":0.005,"22":0.015,"23":0.02,"24":0.005,"25":0.005,"26":0.01,"27":0.005,"28":0.02,"32":0.005,"33":0.005,"36":0.005,"37":0.005,"38":0.005,"42":0.005,"43":0.005,"51":0.005,"112":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"1":0.015,"2":0.01,"3":0.03,"4":0.055,"5":0.04,"6":0.09,"7":0.06,"8":0.07,"9":0.105,"10":0.065,"11":0.085,"12":0.05,"13":0.06,"14":0.05,"15":0.04,"16":0.03,"17":0.025,"18":0.01,"19":0.015,"20":0.01,"21":0.015,"22":0.01,"23":0.01,"25":0.005,"26":0.005,"28":0.015,"30":0.01,"43":0.005,"65":0.005,"75":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"5":0.015,"6":0.015,"7":0.01,"8":0.03,"9":0.03,"10":0.075,"11":0.115,"12":0.15,"13":0.14,"14":0.125,"15":0.07,"16":0.055,"17":0.07,"18":0.025,"19":0.05,"20":0.015,"21":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"3":0.02,"4":0.025,"5":0.095,"6":0.105,"7":0.125,"8":0.105,"9":0.11,"10":0.13,"11":0.1,"12":0.05,"13":0.07,"14":0.03,"15":0.015,"16":0.005,"18":0.01,"19":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.2,"1":0.11,"2":0.085,"3":0.07,"4":0.045,"5":0.075,"6":0.035,"7":0.02,"8":0.01,"9":0.01,"10":0.025,"11":0.02,"12":0.025,"13":0.025,"14":0.025,"15":0.01,"16":0.02,"17":0.01,"18":0.02,"19":0.01,"20":0.015,"21":0.015,"23":0.015,"24":0.01,"25":0.005,"26":0.005,"27":0.005,"28":0.01,"29":0.005,"30":0.005,"31":0.01,"32":0.005,"36":0.01,"38":0.005,"49":0.005,"50":0.01,"53":0.005,"62":0.005,"70":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1587772800000,"validUntil":1588377600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":3,"actual":1,"trainingCount":4406,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2020","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.305975,"mean":1.375,"median":1,"bias":0.375,"maeMean":0.375,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.39,"pitUpper":0.665,"empiricalMass":0.275,"logScore":1.2909841813155656},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.3666750000000001,"mean":1.535,"median":1,"bias":0.5349999999999999,"maeMean":0.5349999999999999,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":6,"coverage":true,"width":6,"pitLower":0.425,"pitUpper":0.66,"empiricalMass":0.235,"logScore":1.448169764837978},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.268,"mean":1.36,"median":1,"bias":0.3600000000000001,"maeMean":0.3600000000000001,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.34,"pitUpper":0.665,"empiricalMass":0.325,"logScore":1.1239300966523995},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.40527500000000005,"mean":1.825,"median":2,"bias":0.825,"maeMean":0.825,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.15,"pitUpper":0.455,"empiricalMass":0.305,"logScore":1.1874435023747254},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.27070000000000005,"mean":1.35,"median":1,"bias":0.3500000000000001,"maeMean":0.3500000000000001,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.28,"pitUpper":0.595,"empiricalMass":0.315,"logScore":1.155182640156504},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.6083749999999999,"mean":1.375,"median":0,"bias":0.375,"maeMean":0.375,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":8,"coverage":true,"width":8,"pitLower":0.69,"pitUpper":0.785,"empiricalMass":0.095,"logScore":2.353878387381596}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.39,"1":0.275,"2":0.17,"3":0.07,"4":0.04,"5":0.025,"6":0.01,"9":0.005,"10":0.01,"12":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.425,"1":0.235,"2":0.14,"3":0.065,"4":0.05,"5":0.03,"6":0.025,"7":0.01,"8":0.005,"9":0.005,"10":0.005,"24":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.34,"1":0.325,"2":0.155,"3":0.115,"4":0.015,"5":0.025,"6":0.01,"7":0.005,"8":0.005,"12":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.15,"1":0.305,"2":0.28,"3":0.145,"4":0.09,"5":0.015,"6":0.015},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.28,"1":0.315,"2":0.25,"3":0.09,"4":0.06,"5":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.69,"1":0.095,"2":0.045,"3":0.03,"4":0.025,"5":0.01,"6":0.045,"7":0.005,"8":0.005,"9":0.01,"10":0.005,"11":0.005,"12":0.015,"13":0.005,"14":0.005,"19":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1587772800000,"validUntil":1588377600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4406,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2020","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.016249999999999987,"mean":0.15,"median":0,"bias":0.15,"maeMean":0.15,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.875,"empiricalMass":0.875,"logScore":0.13353139262452263},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.03572500000000001,"mean":0.245,"median":0,"bias":0.245,"maeMean":0.245,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.815,"empiricalMass":0.815,"logScore":0.2045671657412744},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.013450000000000004,"mean":0.13,"median":0,"bias":0.13,"maeMean":0.13,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.885,"empiricalMass":0.885,"logScore":0.12216763397420753},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.071125,"mean":0.295,"median":0,"bias":0.295,"maeMean":0.295,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.735,"empiricalMass":0.735,"logScore":0.3078847797693004},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.01212500000000001,"mean":0.115,"median":0,"bias":0.115,"maeMean":0.115,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.89,"empiricalMass":0.89,"logScore":0.11653381625595151},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.006499999999999992,"mean":0.09,"median":0,"bias":0.09,"maeMean":0.09,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.92,"empiricalMass":0.92,"logScore":0.08338160893905101}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.875,"1":0.1,"2":0.025},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.815,"1":0.15,"2":0.02,"3":0.01,"5":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.885,"1":0.1,"2":0.015},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.735,"1":0.235,"2":0.03},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.89,"1":0.105,"2":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.92,"1":0.07,"2":0.01}}},{"issuedAt":1587772800000,"validUntil":1590364800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":2,"actual":20,"trainingCount":4406,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2020","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":22.252725000000005,"mean":56.225,"median":50,"bias":36.225,"maeMean":36.225,"maeMedian":30,"low":26,"high":103,"coverage":false,"width":77,"pitLower":0.01,"pitUpper":0.01,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"rollingETAS":{"crps":16.851775,"mean":54.235,"median":44,"bias":34.235,"maeMean":34.235,"maeMedian":24,"low":18,"high":120,"coverage":true,"width":102,"pitLower":0.055,"pitUpper":0.065,"empiricalMass":0.01,"logScore":4.605170185988091},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":23.2791,"mean":57.33,"median":50,"bias":37.33,"maeMean":37.33,"maeMedian":30,"low":28,"high":105,"coverage":false,"width":77,"pitLower":0.015,"pitUpper":0.015,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":33.119,"mean":57.33,"median":57,"bias":37.33,"maeMean":37.33,"maeMedian":37,"low":44,"high":69,"coverage":false,"width":25,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentPoisson":{"crps":12.37725,"mean":35.37,"median":35,"bias":15.369999999999997,"maeMean":15.369999999999997,"maeMedian":15,"low":27,"high":44,"coverage":false,"width":17,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":7.564874999999999,"mean":35.365,"median":30.5,"bias":15.365000000000002,"maeMean":15.365000000000002,"maeMedian":10.5,"low":6,"high":83,"coverage":true,"width":77,"pitLower":0.32,"pitUpper":0.35,"empiricalMass":0.03,"logScore":3.506557897319982}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"18":0.005,"19":0.005,"21":0.005,"22":0.01,"23":0.015,"25":0.005,"26":0.01,"28":0.01,"29":0.025,"30":0.01,"31":0.02,"32":0.02,"33":0.02,"34":0.02,"35":0.02,"36":0.02,"37":0.035,"38":0.025,"39":0.01,"40":0.02,"41":0.025,"42":0.02,"43":0.015,"44":0.03,"45":0.005,"46":0.01,"47":0.01,"48":0.035,"49":0.03,"50":0.015,"51":0.005,"52":0.01,"53":0.02,"54":0.02,"55":0.025,"56":0.015,"57":0.035,"58":0.025,"59":0.02,"60":0.015,"61":0.02,"62":0.02,"63":0.005,"64":0.015,"65":0.005,"66":0.01,"67":0.02,"68":0.01,"69":0.015,"70":0.01,"71":0.005,"74":0.01,"76":0.01,"78":0.005,"80":0.005,"81":0.005,"82":0.01,"83":0.005,"84":0.01,"85":0.005,"86":0.005,"87":0.005,"88":0.01,"90":0.005,"92":0.01,"96":0.01,"98":0.005,"103":0.005,"109":0.005,"120":0.01,"126":0.005,"140":0.005,"146":0.005,"151":0.005,"161":0.005,"205":0.005,"238":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"14":0.005,"15":0.01,"16":0.01,"17":0.005,"18":0.02,"19":0.005,"20":0.01,"21":0.025,"22":0.015,"23":0.01,"24":0.035,"25":0.005,"26":0.015,"27":0.03,"28":0.005,"29":0.025,"30":0.005,"31":0.02,"32":0.02,"33":0.02,"34":0.015,"35":0.025,"36":0.015,"37":0.01,"38":0.055,"39":0.005,"40":0.025,"41":0.005,"42":0.01,"43":0.01,"44":0.035,"45":0.03,"46":0.005,"47":0.005,"48":0.01,"49":0.02,"50":0.035,"51":0.015,"52":0.01,"53":0.025,"54":0.01,"55":0.01,"56":0.005,"57":0.03,"58":0.005,"59":0.005,"60":0.005,"61":0.005,"62":0.005,"63":0.01,"66":0.005,"67":0.01,"68":0.005,"69":0.005,"70":0.01,"71":0.005,"72":0.005,"73":0.01,"74":0.01,"76":0.01,"77":0.005,"78":0.005,"79":0.005,"80":0.005,"86":0.005,"87":0.01,"88":0.01,"89":0.01,"90":0.005,"91":0.005,"92":0.005,"93":0.01,"94":0.01,"97":0.005,"106":0.005,"109":0.005,"112":0.005,"116":0.005,"119":0.005,"120":0.005,"127":0.005,"138":0.005,"146":0.005,"152":0.005,"153":0.005,"154":0.005,"163":0.005,"175":0.005,"199":0.005,"355":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"17":0.005,"18":0.005,"19":0.005,"26":0.015,"27":0.01,"28":0.015,"29":0.01,"30":0.015,"31":0.02,"32":0.025,"33":0.02,"34":0.025,"35":0.035,"36":0.02,"37":0.03,"38":0.01,"39":0.02,"40":0.01,"41":0.01,"42":0.015,"43":0.015,"44":0.03,"45":0.01,"46":0.01,"47":0.045,"48":0.015,"49":0.04,"50":0.02,"51":0.01,"53":0.01,"54":0.025,"55":0.025,"56":0.02,"57":0.015,"58":0.01,"59":0.02,"60":0.02,"61":0.015,"62":0.025,"63":0.025,"64":0.01,"65":0.01,"66":0.015,"67":0.02,"68":0.015,"70":0.005,"71":0.015,"72":0.005,"73":0.005,"74":0.005,"77":0.02,"78":0.005,"79":0.015,"81":0.015,"82":0.005,"86":0.005,"88":0.005,"90":0.005,"91":0.005,"93":0.005,"94":0.005,"95":0.005,"98":0.005,"100":0.005,"102":0.005,"104":0.005,"105":0.005,"109":0.005,"117":0.005,"128":0.005,"140":0.005,"150":0.005,"151":0.01,"173":0.005,"202":0.005,"204":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"35":0.005,"38":0.005,"39":0.005,"41":0.005,"42":0.01,"43":0.01,"44":0.015,"45":0.005,"46":0.015,"47":0.01,"48":0.015,"49":0.035,"50":0.04,"51":0.025,"52":0.055,"53":0.04,"54":0.055,"55":0.03,"56":0.05,"57":0.1,"58":0.06,"59":0.055,"60":0.05,"61":0.025,"62":0.035,"63":0.04,"64":0.035,"65":0.02,"66":0.035,"67":0.02,"68":0.02,"69":0.025,"70":0.025,"73":0.005,"75":0.005,"76":0.005,"77":0.005,"78":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"22":0.005,"24":0.005,"25":0.005,"26":0.01,"27":0.035,"28":0.04,"29":0.055,"30":0.025,"31":0.055,"32":0.09,"33":0.055,"34":0.085,"35":0.07,"36":0.045,"37":0.06,"38":0.07,"39":0.08,"40":0.07,"41":0.02,"42":0.015,"43":0.035,"44":0.025,"45":0.01,"46":0.015,"48":0.005,"49":0.005,"50":0.005,"51":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.005,"1":0.01,"3":0.01,"5":0.02,"6":0.02,"7":0.025,"8":0.02,"9":0.025,"10":0.025,"11":0.02,"12":0.02,"13":0.025,"14":0.015,"15":0.025,"16":0.015,"17":0.01,"18":0.02,"19":0.01,"20":0.03,"21":0.015,"22":0.01,"23":0.02,"24":0.01,"25":0.01,"26":0.025,"27":0.02,"28":0.015,"29":0.01,"30":0.015,"31":0.02,"32":0.025,"33":0.02,"34":0.02,"35":0.01,"36":0.015,"37":0.01,"38":0.02,"39":0.01,"40":0.005,"41":0.02,"42":0.01,"43":0.005,"44":0.005,"45":0.005,"46":0.015,"47":0.01,"48":0.015,"49":0.005,"50":0.01,"53":0.005,"55":0.02,"56":0.01,"57":0.01,"58":0.01,"60":0.01,"61":0.005,"62":0.01,"63":0.02,"64":0.005,"65":0.01,"66":0.005,"67":0.005,"69":0.015,"70":0.01,"72":0.005,"73":0.005,"76":0.01,"77":0.005,"78":0.01,"81":0.005,"83":0.005,"87":0.005,"88":0.005,"91":0.005,"92":0.005,"93":0.005,"96":0.01,"106":0.005,"111":0.005,"127":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1587772800000,"validUntil":1590364800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":3,"actual":2,"trainingCount":4406,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2020","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":2.5946249999999997,"mean":7.055,"median":6,"bias":5.055,"maeMean":5.055,"maeMedian":4,"low":1,"high":15,"coverage":true,"width":14,"pitLower":0.07,"pitUpper":0.14,"empiricalMass":0.07,"logScore":2.659260036932778},"rollingETAS":{"crps":2.5117499999999997,"mean":7.41,"median":6,"bias":5.41,"maeMean":5.41,"maeMedian":4,"low":1,"high":19,"coverage":true,"width":18,"pitLower":0.1,"pitUpper":0.19,"empiricalMass":0.09,"logScore":2.4079456086518722},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":2.9354,"mean":7.37,"median":6,"bias":5.37,"maeMean":5.37,"maeMedian":4,"low":2,"high":15,"coverage":true,"width":13,"pitLower":0.035,"pitUpper":0.105,"empiricalMass":0.07,"logScore":2.659260036932778},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":4.44365,"mean":7.95,"median":8,"bias":5.95,"maeMean":5.95,"maeMedian":6,"low":4,"high":13,"coverage":false,"width":9,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.02,"empiricalMass":0.02,"logScore":3.912023005428146},"recentPoisson":{"crps":2.7268000000000003,"mean":6.08,"median":6,"bias":4.08,"maeMean":4.08,"maeMedian":4,"low":2,"high":11,"coverage":true,"width":9,"pitLower":0.03,"pitUpper":0.09,"empiricalMass":0.06,"logScore":2.8134107167600364},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":1.8239,"mean":7.26,"median":4,"bias":5.26,"maeMean":5.26,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":24,"coverage":true,"width":24,"pitLower":0.275,"pitUpper":0.375,"empiricalMass":0.1,"logScore":2.3025850929940455}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.01,"1":0.06,"2":0.07,"3":0.105,"4":0.105,"5":0.085,"6":0.12,"7":0.115,"8":0.055,"9":0.045,"10":0.04,"11":0.02,"12":0.05,"13":0.03,"14":0.02,"15":0.02,"16":0.01,"18":0.015,"21":0.005,"26":0.005,"29":0.01,"36":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.035,"1":0.065,"2":0.09,"3":0.09,"4":0.075,"5":0.13,"6":0.065,"7":0.07,"8":0.06,"9":0.075,"10":0.03,"11":0.075,"12":0.025,"14":0.015,"15":0.015,"16":0.005,"17":0.015,"18":0.005,"19":0.01,"20":0.005,"21":0.01,"23":0.005,"24":0.005,"26":0.005,"29":0.005,"31":0.005,"35":0.005,"57":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.025,"1":0.01,"2":0.07,"3":0.075,"4":0.12,"5":0.095,"6":0.125,"7":0.115,"8":0.07,"9":0.045,"10":0.065,"11":0.055,"12":0.02,"13":0.02,"14":0.01,"15":0.03,"16":0.005,"17":0.005,"18":0.005,"21":0.01,"22":0.005,"28":0.01,"32":0.01},"expandingPoisson":{"2":0.02,"3":0.015,"4":0.055,"5":0.1,"6":0.135,"7":0.12,"8":0.115,"9":0.165,"10":0.125,"11":0.06,"12":0.03,"13":0.035,"14":0.015,"15":0.005,"16":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.005,"1":0.025,"2":0.06,"3":0.055,"4":0.12,"5":0.13,"6":0.195,"7":0.18,"8":0.075,"9":0.055,"10":0.03,"11":0.055,"13":0.005,"14":0.005,"15":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.175,"1":0.1,"2":0.1,"3":0.115,"4":0.06,"5":0.06,"6":0.03,"7":0.025,"8":0.025,"9":0.045,"10":0.025,"11":0.03,"12":0.02,"13":0.015,"14":0.015,"15":0.015,"16":0.025,"17":0.015,"18":0.005,"20":0.01,"21":0.005,"22":0.015,"23":0.01,"24":0.01,"26":0.005,"28":0.005,"30":0.005,"32":0.01,"38":0.005,"39":0.005,"42":0.005,"43":0.005,"53":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1587772800000,"validUntil":1590364800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4406,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2020","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.337075,"mean":0.905,"median":1,"bias":0.905,"maeMean":0.905,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.475,"empiricalMass":0.475,"logScore":0.7444404749474959},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.37592499999999995,"mean":1.065,"median":1,"bias":1.065,"maeMean":1.065,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.465,"empiricalMass":0.465,"logScore":0.7657178733947807},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.33310000000000006,"mean":0.91,"median":1,"bias":0.91,"maeMean":0.91,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.49,"empiricalMass":0.49,"logScore":0.7133498878774648},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.47830000000000006,"mean":1.02,"median":1,"bias":1.02,"maeMean":1.02,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.375,"empiricalMass":0.375,"logScore":0.9808292530117262},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.164325,"mean":0.475,"median":0,"bias":0.475,"maeMean":0.475,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.6,"empiricalMass":0.6,"logScore":0.5108256237659907},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.12677500000000003,"mean":0.555,"median":0,"bias":0.555,"maeMean":0.555,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.68,"empiricalMass":0.68,"logScore":0.3856624808119846}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.475,"1":0.3,"2":0.13,"3":0.055,"4":0.03,"6":0.01},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.465,"1":0.265,"2":0.155,"3":0.07,"4":0.02,"5":0.01,"8":0.005,"10":0.005,"12":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.49,"1":0.265,"2":0.135,"3":0.085,"4":0.01,"5":0.01,"6":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.375,"1":0.345,"2":0.185,"3":0.08,"4":0.01,"5":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.6,"1":0.335,"2":0.055,"3":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.68,"1":0.17,"2":0.12,"3":0.005,"4":0.01,"5":0.005,"6":0.005,"7":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1590364800000,"validUntil":1590451200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":2,"actual":1,"trainingCount":4426,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2020","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.31689999999999996,"mean":1.41,"median":1,"bias":0.4099999999999999,"maeMean":0.4099999999999999,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.39,"pitUpper":0.67,"empiricalMass":0.28,"logScore":1.2729656758128873},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.29895000000000005,"mean":1.57,"median":1,"bias":0.5700000000000001,"maeMean":0.5700000000000001,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.39,"pitUpper":0.68,"empiricalMass":0.29,"logScore":1.2378743560016174},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.31504999999999994,"mean":1.5,"median":1,"bias":0.5,"maeMean":0.5,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.345,"pitUpper":0.62,"empiricalMass":0.275,"logScore":1.2909841813155656},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.401575,"mean":1.835,"median":2,"bias":0.835,"maeMean":0.835,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.145,"pitUpper":0.46,"empiricalMass":0.315,"logScore":1.155182640156504},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.22887500000000005,"mean":1.155,"median":1,"bias":0.15500000000000003,"maeMean":0.15500000000000003,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.315,"pitUpper":0.655,"empiricalMass":0.34,"logScore":1.0788096613719298},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.5640000000000001,"mean":1.2,"median":0,"bias":0.19999999999999996,"maeMean":0.19999999999999996,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":6,"coverage":true,"width":6,"pitLower":0.7,"pitUpper":0.825,"empiricalMass":0.125,"logScore":2.0794415416798357}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.39,"1":0.28,"2":0.13,"3":0.1,"4":0.04,"5":0.025,"6":0.01,"7":0.015,"11":0.005,"13":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.39,"1":0.29,"2":0.155,"3":0.07,"4":0.05,"5":0.015,"9":0.01,"10":0.005,"18":0.01,"33":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.345,"1":0.275,"2":0.185,"3":0.105,"4":0.04,"5":0.015,"6":0.01,"7":0.005,"9":0.005,"10":0.005,"11":0.005,"12":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.145,"1":0.315,"2":0.27,"3":0.15,"4":0.08,"5":0.035,"7":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.315,"1":0.34,"2":0.245,"3":0.075,"4":0.025},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.7,"1":0.125,"2":0.045,"3":0.035,"4":0.025,"5":0.01,"6":0.01,"7":0.01,"9":0.015,"11":0.005,"13":0.005,"16":0.01,"37":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1590364800000,"validUntil":1590451200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":3,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4426,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2020","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.023525000000000018,"mean":0.195,"median":0,"bias":0.195,"maeMean":0.195,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.85,"empiricalMass":0.85,"logScore":0.16251892949777494},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.016725000000000018,"mean":0.195,"median":0,"bias":0.195,"maeMean":0.195,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.88,"empiricalMass":0.88,"logScore":0.12783337150988489},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.02595,"mean":0.19,"median":0,"bias":0.19,"maeMean":0.19,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.84,"empiricalMass":0.84,"logScore":0.1743533871447778},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.047500000000000014,"mean":0.26,"median":0,"bias":0.26,"maeMean":0.26,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.785,"empiricalMass":0.785,"logScore":0.24207156119972859},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.03845000000000001,"mean":0.22,"median":0,"bias":0.22,"maeMean":0.22,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.805,"empiricalMass":0.805,"logScore":0.21691300156357363},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.006374999999999992,"mean":0.175,"median":0,"bias":0.175,"maeMean":0.175,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.935,"empiricalMass":0.935,"logScore":0.06720874969344999}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.85,"1":0.12,"2":0.02,"3":0.005,"4":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.88,"1":0.08,"2":0.015,"3":0.015,"4":0.01},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.84,"1":0.145,"2":0.005,"3":0.005,"4":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.785,"1":0.18,"2":0.03,"4":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.805,"1":0.175,"2":0.015,"3":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.935,"1":0.035,"2":0.005,"3":0.01,"5":0.005,"6":0.005,"9":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1590364800000,"validUntil":1590451200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4426,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2020","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.0012250000000000039,"mean":0.035,"median":0,"bias":0.035,"maeMean":0.035,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.965,"empiricalMass":0.965,"logScore":0.03562717764315116},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.001350000000000004,"mean":0.05,"median":0,"bias":0.05,"maeMean":0.05,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.965,"empiricalMass":0.965,"logScore":0.03562717764315116},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.00042500000000000177,"mean":0.025,"median":0,"bias":0.025,"maeMean":0.025,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.98,"empiricalMass":0.98,"logScore":0.020202707317519466},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.0012250000000000039,"mean":0.035,"median":0,"bias":0.035,"maeMean":0.035,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.965,"empiricalMass":0.965,"logScore":0.03562717764315116},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.0006250000000000006,"mean":0.025,"median":0,"bias":0.025,"maeMean":0.025,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.975,"empiricalMass":0.975,"logScore":0.025317807984289897},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.00032500000000000237,"mean":0.025,"median":0,"bias":0.025,"maeMean":0.025,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.985,"empiricalMass":0.985,"logScore":0.015113637810048184}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.965,"1":0.035},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.965,"1":0.025,"2":0.005,"3":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.98,"1":0.015,"2":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.965,"1":0.035},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.975,"1":0.025},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.985,"1":0.005,"2":0.01}}},{"issuedAt":1590364800000,"validUntil":1590969600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":2,"actual":2,"trainingCount":4426,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2020","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":4.910275,"mean":10.535,"median":9,"bias":8.535,"maeMean":8.535,"maeMedian":7,"low":3,"high":23,"coverage":false,"width":20,"pitLower":0.02,"pitUpper":0.035,"empiricalMass":0.015,"logScore":4.199705077879927},"rollingETAS":{"crps":3.7815000000000003,"mean":11.22,"median":7,"bias":9.22,"maeMean":9.22,"maeMedian":5,"low":2,"high":30,"coverage":true,"width":28,"pitLower":0.04,"pitUpper":0.115,"empiricalMass":0.075,"logScore":2.5902671654458267},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":5.2109749999999995,"mean":10.825,"median":9,"bias":8.825,"maeMean":8.825,"maeMedian":7,"low":3,"high":23,"coverage":false,"width":20,"pitLower":0.02,"pitUpper":0.035,"empiricalMass":0.015,"logScore":4.199705077879927},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":9.9006,"mean":13.74,"median":14,"bias":11.74,"maeMean":11.74,"maeMedian":12,"low":9,"high":19,"coverage":false,"width":10,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentPoisson":{"crps":4.8681,"mean":8.49,"median":8,"bias":6.49,"maeMean":6.49,"maeMedian":6,"low":4,"high":14,"coverage":false,"width":10,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.01,"empiricalMass":0.01,"logScore":4.605170185988091},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":1.8771500000000003,"mean":8.42,"median":3,"bias":6.42,"maeMean":6.42,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":37,"coverage":true,"width":37,"pitLower":0.385,"pitUpper":0.465,"empiricalMass":0.08,"logScore":2.5257286443082556}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.01,"1":0.01,"2":0.015,"3":0.045,"4":0.08,"5":0.075,"6":0.075,"7":0.1,"8":0.07,"9":0.095,"10":0.05,"11":0.045,"12":0.04,"13":0.035,"14":0.045,"15":0.04,"16":0.015,"17":0.025,"18":0.02,"20":0.02,"21":0.02,"22":0.005,"23":0.015,"25":0.02,"28":0.005,"31":0.005,"33":0.005,"36":0.005,"43":0.005,"57":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.01,"1":0.03,"2":0.075,"3":0.07,"4":0.06,"5":0.1,"6":0.1,"7":0.07,"8":0.065,"9":0.075,"10":0.03,"11":0.045,"12":0.055,"13":0.01,"14":0.02,"15":0.015,"16":0.015,"17":0.015,"18":0.015,"19":0.005,"20":0.01,"21":0.01,"22":0.01,"24":0.005,"26":0.01,"27":0.01,"28":0.005,"29":0.005,"30":0.01,"31":0.005,"32":0.005,"35":0.005,"43":0.005,"45":0.005,"50":0.005,"56":0.005,"142":0.005,"164":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.015,"1":0.005,"2":0.015,"3":0.045,"4":0.075,"5":0.055,"6":0.075,"7":0.075,"8":0.08,"9":0.085,"10":0.075,"11":0.055,"12":0.025,"13":0.065,"14":0.045,"15":0.015,"16":0.015,"17":0.03,"18":0.025,"19":0.025,"20":0.02,"21":0.015,"22":0.005,"23":0.015,"24":0.005,"26":0.01,"29":0.005,"32":0.005,"33":0.005,"34":0.005,"36":0.005,"60":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"6":0.005,"7":0.01,"8":0.025,"9":0.05,"10":0.095,"11":0.065,"12":0.125,"13":0.115,"14":0.115,"15":0.1,"16":0.09,"17":0.065,"18":0.06,"19":0.04,"20":0.02,"21":0.01,"22":0.005,"23":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"2":0.01,"3":0.015,"4":0.055,"5":0.075,"6":0.08,"7":0.13,"8":0.175,"9":0.15,"10":0.095,"11":0.08,"12":0.035,"13":0.035,"14":0.025,"15":0.02,"16":0.01,"17":0.005,"18":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.255,"1":0.13,"2":0.08,"3":0.045,"4":0.075,"5":0.03,"6":0.035,"7":0.045,"8":0.02,"9":0.035,"10":0.035,"11":0.005,"12":0.02,"13":0.005,"15":0.02,"16":0.005,"17":0.01,"18":0.015,"19":0.01,"20":0.01,"22":0.01,"25":0.005,"27":0.01,"29":0.005,"30":0.01,"31":0.005,"32":0.01,"33":0.005,"37":0.005,"41":0.01,"45":0.01,"46":0.005,"47":0.005,"59":0.005,"64":0.01,"96":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1590364800000,"validUntil":1590969600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":3,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4426,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2020","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.5549499999999999,"mean":1.22,"median":1,"bias":1.22,"maeMean":1.22,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.35,"empiricalMass":0.35,"logScore":1.0498221244986778},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.425125,"mean":1.565,"median":1,"bias":1.565,"maeMean":1.565,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":6,"coverage":true,"width":6,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.46,"empiricalMass":0.46,"logScore":0.7765287894989963},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.5408249999999999,"mean":1.295,"median":1,"bias":1.295,"maeMean":1.295,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.375,"empiricalMass":0.375,"logScore":0.9808292530117262},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":1.1398000000000001,"mean":1.87,"median":2,"bias":1.87,"maeMean":1.87,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.145,"empiricalMass":0.145,"logScore":1.9310215365615626},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.80285,"mean":1.42,"median":1,"bias":1.42,"maeMean":1.42,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.22,"empiricalMass":0.22,"logScore":1.5141277326297755},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.2557750000000001,"mean":1.605,"median":0,"bias":1.605,"maeMean":1.605,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":10,"coverage":true,"width":10,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.675,"empiricalMass":0.675,"logScore":0.3930425881096072}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.35,"1":0.315,"2":0.205,"3":0.08,"4":0.03,"5":0.005,"6":0.005,"8":0.01},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.46,"1":0.26,"2":0.12,"3":0.045,"4":0.035,"5":0.025,"6":0.015,"7":0.005,"8":0.005,"10":0.01,"11":0.005,"12":0.005,"28":0.005,"29":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.375,"1":0.28,"2":0.2,"3":0.06,"4":0.045,"5":0.01,"6":0.01,"7":0.015,"8":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.145,"1":0.285,"2":0.305,"3":0.165,"4":0.045,"5":0.03,"6":0.025},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.22,"1":0.37,"2":0.26,"3":0.09,"4":0.045,"5":0.01,"6":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.675,"1":0.11,"2":0.045,"3":0.02,"4":0.02,"5":0.035,"6":0.01,"7":0.005,"8":0.02,"9":0.005,"10":0.015,"11":0.005,"13":0.005,"14":0.005,"15":0.005,"16":0.01,"18":0.005,"25":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1590364800000,"validUntil":1590969600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4426,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2020","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.011149999999999993,"mean":0.12,"median":0,"bias":0.12,"maeMean":0.12,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.895,"empiricalMass":0.895,"logScore":0.11093156070728166},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.021175,"mean":0.255,"median":0,"bias":0.255,"maeMean":0.255,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.865,"empiricalMass":0.865,"logScore":0.14502577205025774},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.009275000000000005,"mean":0.115,"median":0,"bias":0.115,"maeMean":0.115,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.905,"empiricalMass":0.905,"logScore":0.0998203352822109},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.05084999999999998,"mean":0.24,"median":0,"bias":0.24,"maeMean":0.24,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.775,"empiricalMass":0.775,"logScore":0.25489224962879004},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.010024999999999992,"mean":0.105,"median":0,"bias":0.105,"maeMean":0.105,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.9,"empiricalMass":0.9,"logScore":0.10536051565782628},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.011475000000000013,"mean":0.135,"median":0,"bias":0.135,"maeMean":0.135,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.895,"empiricalMass":0.895,"logScore":0.11093156070728166}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.895,"1":0.095,"2":0.005,"3":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.865,"1":0.09,"2":0.03,"5":0.005,"7":0.005,"9":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.905,"1":0.08,"2":0.01,"3":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.775,"1":0.21,"2":0.015},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.9,"1":0.095,"2":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.895,"1":0.085,"2":0.015,"4":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1590364800000,"validUntil":1592956800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":2,"actual":19,"trainingCount":4426,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2020","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":20.426499999999997,"mean":50.11,"median":46,"bias":31.11,"maeMean":31.11,"maeMedian":27,"low":26,"high":85,"coverage":false,"width":59,"pitLower":0.01,"pitUpper":0.015,"empiricalMass":0.005,"logScore":5.298317366548036},"rollingETAS":{"crps":16.429850000000002,"mean":52.06,"median":43,"bias":33.06,"maeMean":33.06,"maeMedian":24,"low":19,"high":128,"coverage":true,"width":109,"pitLower":0.045,"pitUpper":0.07,"empiricalMass":0.025,"logScore":3.6888794541139363},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":21.33205,"mean":54.34,"median":48,"bias":35.34,"maeMean":35.34,"maeMedian":29,"low":24,"high":105,"coverage":false,"width":81,"pitLower":0.01,"pitUpper":0.015,"empiricalMass":0.005,"logScore":5.298317366548036},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":34.65882499999999,"mean":57.605,"median":58,"bias":38.605,"maeMean":38.605,"maeMedian":39,"low":45,"high":68,"coverage":false,"width":23,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentPoisson":{"crps":13.832175000000001,"mean":36.155,"median":37,"bias":17.155,"maeMean":17.155,"maeMedian":18,"low":26,"high":47,"coverage":false,"width":21,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":7.272525000000002,"mean":36.315,"median":28,"bias":17.314999999999998,"maeMean":17.314999999999998,"maeMedian":9,"low":3,"high":94,"coverage":true,"width":91,"pitLower":0.355,"pitUpper":0.385,"empiricalMass":0.03,"logScore":3.506557897319982}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"16":0.005,"18":0.005,"19":0.005,"21":0.005,"22":0.005,"23":0.005,"24":0.005,"25":0.01,"26":0.005,"27":0.015,"28":0.03,"29":0.02,"30":0.03,"31":0.02,"32":0.02,"33":0.02,"34":0.025,"35":0.01,"36":0.03,"37":0.025,"38":0.025,"39":0.02,"41":0.04,"42":0.015,"43":0.015,"44":0.035,"45":0.025,"46":0.04,"47":0.025,"48":0.015,"49":0.025,"50":0.005,"51":0.035,"52":0.015,"53":0.015,"54":0.02,"55":0.02,"56":0.02,"57":0.01,"58":0.02,"59":0.005,"60":0.01,"61":0.01,"62":0.02,"63":0.01,"64":0.02,"66":0.01,"67":0.02,"68":0.01,"69":0.005,"70":0.01,"71":0.025,"72":0.01,"73":0.01,"74":0.005,"75":0.01,"77":0.005,"78":0.005,"82":0.005,"84":0.005,"85":0.005,"88":0.005,"89":0.005,"90":0.005,"99":0.005,"105":0.005,"109":0.005,"120":0.01,"131":0.005,"149":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"11":0.005,"12":0.005,"16":0.005,"17":0.01,"18":0.02,"19":0.025,"21":0.015,"22":0.015,"23":0.015,"24":0.005,"25":0.03,"26":0.025,"27":0.015,"28":0.03,"29":0.035,"30":0.02,"31":0.02,"32":0.01,"33":0.04,"34":0.02,"35":0.02,"37":0.02,"38":0.01,"39":0.015,"40":0.015,"41":0.015,"42":0.015,"43":0.045,"44":0.005,"45":0.025,"46":0.025,"47":0.025,"48":0.02,"49":0.01,"50":0.01,"51":0.015,"52":0.025,"53":0.01,"54":0.015,"55":0.01,"56":0.005,"57":0.005,"58":0.01,"59":0.01,"60":0.005,"61":0.005,"62":0.01,"63":0.005,"64":0.015,"65":0.01,"66":0.005,"67":0.01,"69":0.005,"71":0.02,"72":0.005,"74":0.005,"75":0.01,"77":0.005,"79":0.005,"83":0.005,"85":0.005,"86":0.005,"88":0.005,"89":0.005,"90":0.01,"91":0.005,"94":0.005,"95":0.005,"96":0.005,"98":0.005,"108":0.005,"110":0.005,"117":0.005,"120":0.005,"128":0.005,"129":0.005,"130":0.01,"133":0.005,"145":0.005,"146":0.005,"161":0.005,"187":0.005,"228":0.005,"319":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"18":0.01,"19":0.005,"20":0.005,"21":0.015,"22":0.01,"24":0.015,"25":0.015,"26":0.01,"27":0.01,"28":0.015,"29":0.015,"30":0.005,"31":0.025,"32":0.01,"33":0.015,"34":0.025,"35":0.035,"36":0.025,"37":0.03,"38":0.025,"39":0.015,"40":0.035,"41":0.015,"42":0.02,"43":0.005,"44":0.025,"45":0.02,"46":0.02,"47":0.01,"48":0.025,"49":0.02,"50":0.01,"51":0.02,"52":0.02,"53":0.03,"54":0.005,"55":0.03,"56":0.01,"59":0.03,"60":0.015,"61":0.005,"62":0.02,"63":0.01,"64":0.015,"65":0.015,"66":0.005,"68":0.01,"69":0.02,"70":0.015,"71":0.015,"73":0.005,"74":0.01,"76":0.01,"78":0.005,"80":0.005,"81":0.01,"83":0.005,"84":0.01,"86":0.005,"88":0.005,"89":0.005,"90":0.005,"93":0.015,"100":0.01,"101":0.01,"105":0.005,"107":0.005,"121":0.005,"122":0.005,"124":0.005,"125":0.005,"127":0.005,"139":0.005,"146":0.005,"155":0.005,"230":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"40":0.005,"42":0.005,"43":0.005,"44":0.015,"45":0.02,"46":0.02,"47":0.015,"48":0.02,"49":0.04,"50":0.035,"51":0.025,"52":0.04,"53":0.025,"54":0.045,"55":0.05,"56":0.07,"57":0.035,"58":0.075,"59":0.065,"60":0.03,"61":0.05,"62":0.045,"63":0.05,"64":0.04,"65":0.025,"66":0.06,"67":0.02,"68":0.025,"69":0.015,"70":0.015,"72":0.005,"73":0.005,"76":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"23":0.01,"24":0.01,"25":0.015,"26":0.025,"27":0.01,"28":0.045,"29":0.045,"30":0.015,"31":0.045,"32":0.05,"33":0.06,"34":0.045,"35":0.06,"36":0.055,"37":0.085,"38":0.11,"39":0.05,"40":0.03,"41":0.055,"42":0.035,"43":0.04,"44":0.04,"45":0.005,"46":0.005,"47":0.02,"48":0.015,"49":0.01,"50":0.005,"51":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.01,"1":0.015,"2":0.01,"3":0.015,"4":0.02,"5":0.005,"6":0.005,"7":0.03,"8":0.01,"9":0.03,"11":0.02,"12":0.045,"13":0.03,"14":0.03,"15":0.03,"16":0.005,"17":0.02,"18":0.025,"19":0.03,"20":0.005,"21":0.02,"22":0.015,"23":0.025,"25":0.02,"26":0.005,"27":0.02,"28":0.025,"29":0.02,"30":0.02,"33":0.015,"34":0.01,"35":0.02,"36":0.005,"37":0.025,"38":0.03,"39":0.015,"40":0.005,"41":0.01,"42":0.01,"43":0.02,"46":0.01,"47":0.01,"48":0.025,"49":0.01,"50":0.005,"51":0.005,"54":0.01,"55":0.005,"56":0.005,"58":0.01,"59":0.015,"61":0.005,"62":0.005,"64":0.005,"66":0.005,"69":0.005,"70":0.005,"73":0.01,"77":0.005,"80":0.005,"81":0.005,"82":0.01,"83":0.005,"85":0.005,"86":0.005,"87":0.01,"88":0.005,"89":0.005,"91":0.005,"92":0.005,"94":0.005,"95":0.005,"101":0.005,"110":0.005,"114":0.005,"119":0.005,"126":0.005,"128":0.005,"131":0.005,"188":0.005,"199":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1590364800000,"validUntil":1592956800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":3,"actual":1,"trainingCount":4426,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2020","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":2.918525,"mean":5.865,"median":5,"bias":4.865,"maeMean":4.865,"maeMedian":4,"low":1,"high":13,"coverage":true,"width":12,"pitLower":0.025,"pitUpper":0.11,"empiricalMass":0.085,"logScore":2.4651040224918206},"rollingETAS":{"crps":3.4402,"mean":7.47,"median":6,"bias":6.47,"maeMean":6.47,"maeMedian":5,"low":1,"high":19,"coverage":true,"width":18,"pitLower":0.015,"pitUpper":0.055,"empiricalMass":0.04,"logScore":3.2188758248682006},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":3.2103,"mean":6.69,"median":6,"bias":5.69,"maeMean":5.69,"maeMedian":5,"low":1,"high":16,"coverage":true,"width":15,"pitLower":0.01,"pitUpper":0.09,"empiricalMass":0.08,"logScore":2.5257286443082556},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":4.9476249999999995,"mean":7.435,"median":7,"bias":6.435,"maeMean":6.435,"maeMedian":6,"low":4,"high":12,"coverage":false,"width":8,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.01,"empiricalMass":0.01,"logScore":4.605170185988091},"recentPoisson":{"crps":3.6442999999999994,"mean":6.04,"median":6,"bias":5.04,"maeMean":5.04,"maeMedian":5,"low":2,"high":10,"coverage":false,"width":8,"pitLower":0.01,"pitUpper":0.04,"empiricalMass":0.03,"logScore":3.506557897319982},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":2.1783750000000004,"mean":6.175,"median":4,"bias":5.175,"maeMean":5.175,"maeMedian":3,"low":0,"high":19,"coverage":true,"width":19,"pitLower":0.195,"pitUpper":0.31,"empiricalMass":0.115,"logScore":2.162823150618887}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.025,"1":0.085,"2":0.055,"3":0.115,"4":0.11,"5":0.125,"6":0.115,"7":0.08,"8":0.09,"9":0.055,"10":0.045,"11":0.025,"12":0.02,"13":0.025,"14":0.005,"15":0.01,"17":0.005,"18":0.005,"22":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.015,"1":0.04,"2":0.09,"3":0.14,"4":0.115,"5":0.065,"6":0.09,"7":0.08,"8":0.06,"9":0.05,"10":0.035,"11":0.025,"12":0.045,"13":0.02,"14":0.025,"16":0.025,"17":0.005,"18":0.02,"19":0.02,"20":0.005,"21":0.005,"24":0.01,"28":0.005,"40":0.005,"46":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.01,"1":0.08,"2":0.075,"3":0.095,"4":0.115,"5":0.115,"6":0.1,"7":0.085,"8":0.06,"9":0.045,"10":0.03,"11":0.04,"12":0.035,"13":0.02,"14":0.025,"15":0.01,"16":0.01,"17":0.015,"18":0.01,"19":0.01,"20":0.01,"31":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"1":0.01,"2":0.015,"3":0.02,"4":0.08,"5":0.11,"6":0.15,"7":0.15,"8":0.16,"9":0.115,"10":0.05,"11":0.05,"12":0.04,"13":0.035,"14":0.01,"15":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.01,"1":0.03,"2":0.035,"3":0.065,"4":0.145,"5":0.135,"6":0.17,"7":0.15,"8":0.08,"9":0.085,"10":0.045,"11":0.04,"12":0.005,"13":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.195,"1":0.115,"2":0.055,"3":0.065,"4":0.095,"5":0.07,"6":0.035,"7":0.075,"8":0.015,"9":0.035,"10":0.04,"11":0.015,"12":0.015,"13":0.03,"14":0.025,"15":0.01,"16":0.01,"17":0.02,"18":0.015,"19":0.015,"21":0.02,"22":0.005,"23":0.01,"25":0.005,"27":0.005,"29":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1590364800000,"validUntil":1592956800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4426,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2020","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.16952499999999998,"mean":0.585,"median":0,"bias":0.585,"maeMean":0.585,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.615,"empiricalMass":0.615,"logScore":0.4861330111756192},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.35047499999999987,"mean":1.025,"median":1,"bias":1.025,"maeMean":1.025,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.475,"empiricalMass":0.475,"logScore":0.7444404749474959},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.27444999999999997,"mean":0.82,"median":0,"bias":0.82,"maeMean":0.82,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.52,"empiricalMass":0.52,"logScore":0.6539264674066639},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.5007249999999999,"mean":1.025,"median":1,"bias":1.025,"maeMean":1.025,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.365,"empiricalMass":0.365,"logScore":1.0078579253996456},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.106825,"mean":0.405,"median":0,"bias":0.405,"maeMean":0.405,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.68,"empiricalMass":0.68,"logScore":0.3856624808119846},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.18267500000000003,"mean":0.675,"median":0,"bias":0.675,"maeMean":0.675,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.6,"empiricalMass":0.6,"logScore":0.5108256237659907}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.615,"1":0.245,"2":0.1,"3":0.035,"7":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.475,"1":0.285,"2":0.13,"3":0.05,"4":0.03,"5":0.015,"6":0.005,"10":0.005,"11":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.52,"1":0.29,"2":0.115,"3":0.035,"4":0.015,"5":0.015,"6":0.01},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.365,"1":0.33,"2":0.24,"3":0.05,"4":0.01,"5":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.68,"1":0.255,"2":0.055,"4":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.6,"1":0.27,"2":0.07,"3":0.02,"4":0.025,"6":0.005,"7":0.005,"8":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1592956800000,"validUntil":1593043200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":2,"actual":1,"trainingCount":4445,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2020","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.3495999999999999,"mean":1.2,"median":1,"bias":0.19999999999999996,"maeMean":0.19999999999999996,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.49,"pitUpper":0.715,"empiricalMass":0.225,"logScore":1.491654876777717},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.31525000000000003,"mean":1.1,"median":1,"bias":0.10000000000000009,"maeMean":0.10000000000000009,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.49,"pitUpper":0.765,"empiricalMass":0.275,"logScore":1.2909841813155656},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.40549999999999986,"mean":1.31,"median":0,"bias":0.31000000000000005,"maeMean":0.31000000000000005,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.535,"pitUpper":0.725,"empiricalMass":0.19,"logScore":1.6607312068216509},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.4327,"mean":1.87,"median":2,"bias":0.8700000000000001,"maeMean":0.8700000000000001,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.16,"pitUpper":0.455,"empiricalMass":0.295,"logScore":1.2207799226423173},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.21677500000000005,"mean":1.185,"median":1,"bias":0.18500000000000005,"maeMean":0.18500000000000005,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.305,"pitUpper":0.67,"empiricalMass":0.365,"logScore":1.0078579253996456},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.5565,"mean":1.12,"median":0,"bias":0.1200000000000001,"maeMean":0.1200000000000001,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":7,"coverage":true,"width":7,"pitLower":0.69,"pitUpper":0.825,"empiricalMass":0.135,"logScore":2.0024805005437076}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.49,"1":0.225,"2":0.145,"3":0.07,"4":0.02,"5":0.03,"6":0.005,"7":0.005,"9":0.005,"27":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.49,"1":0.275,"2":0.125,"3":0.055,"4":0.01,"5":0.01,"6":0.01,"7":0.01,"10":0.005,"11":0.005,"17":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.535,"1":0.19,"2":0.115,"3":0.065,"4":0.03,"5":0.025,"7":0.02,"9":0.005,"10":0.01,"33":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.16,"1":0.295,"2":0.235,"3":0.2,"4":0.07,"5":0.025,"6":0.01,"8":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.305,"1":0.365,"2":0.215,"3":0.075,"4":0.035,"5":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.69,"1":0.135,"2":0.04,"3":0.02,"4":0.04,"5":0.005,"6":0.01,"7":0.02,"8":0.01,"9":0.005,"10":0.005,"11":0.005,"13":0.005,"14":0.005,"19":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1592956800000,"validUntil":1593043200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":3,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4445,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2020","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.012724999999999986,"mean":0.175,"median":0,"bias":0.175,"maeMean":0.175,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.895,"empiricalMass":0.895,"logScore":0.11093156070728166},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.021574999999999983,"mean":0.215,"median":0,"bias":0.215,"maeMean":0.215,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.86,"empiricalMass":0.86,"logScore":0.15082288973458366},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.015200000000000019,"mean":0.17,"median":0,"bias":0.17,"maeMean":0.17,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.88,"empiricalMass":0.88,"logScore":0.12783337150988489},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.05802500000000002,"mean":0.265,"median":0,"bias":0.265,"maeMean":0.265,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.76,"empiricalMass":0.76,"logScore":0.2744368457017603},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.02124999999999999,"mean":0.16,"median":0,"bias":0.16,"maeMean":0.16,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.855,"empiricalMass":0.855,"logScore":0.15665381004537685},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.0029,"mean":0.09,"median":0,"bias":0.09,"maeMean":0.09,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.955,"empiricalMass":0.955,"logScore":0.046043938501406846}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.895,"1":0.07,"2":0.015,"3":0.015,"6":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.86,"1":0.1,"2":0.025,"3":0.005,"4":0.005,"6":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.88,"1":0.095,"2":0.015,"3":0.005,"6":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.76,"1":0.22,"2":0.015,"3":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.855,"1":0.13,"2":0.015},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.955,"1":0.02,"2":0.01,"3":0.01,"4":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1592956800000,"validUntil":1593043200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4445,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2020","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.00040000000000000105,"mean":0.02,"median":0,"bias":0.02,"maeMean":0.02,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.98,"empiricalMass":0.98,"logScore":0.020202707317519466},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.00040000000000000105,"mean":0.02,"median":0,"bias":0.02,"maeMean":0.02,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.98,"empiricalMass":0.98,"logScore":0.020202707317519466},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.0006999999999999992,"mean":0.04,"median":0,"bias":0.04,"maeMean":0.04,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.975,"empiricalMass":0.975,"logScore":0.025317807984289897},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.000899999999999998,"mean":0.03,"median":0,"bias":0.03,"maeMean":0.03,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.97,"empiricalMass":0.97,"logScore":0.030459207484708574},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.00040000000000000105,"mean":0.02,"median":0,"bias":0.02,"maeMean":0.02,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.98,"empiricalMass":0.98,"logScore":0.020202707317519466},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.00027500000000000094,"mean":0.025,"median":0,"bias":0.025,"maeMean":0.025,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.985,"empiricalMass":0.985,"logScore":0.015113637810048184}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.98,"1":0.02},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.98,"1":0.02},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.975,"1":0.02,"4":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.97,"1":0.03},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.98,"1":0.02},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.985,"1":0.01,"3":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1592956800000,"validUntil":1593561600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":2,"actual":11,"trainingCount":4445,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2020","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":2.32815,"mean":9.73,"median":7,"bias":-1.2699999999999996,"maeMean":1.2699999999999996,"maeMedian":4,"low":2,"high":27,"coverage":true,"width":25,"pitLower":0.75,"pitUpper":0.785,"empiricalMass":0.035,"logScore":3.3524072174927233},"rollingETAS":{"crps":2.6605,"mean":8.99,"median":6,"bias":-2.01,"maeMean":2.01,"maeMedian":5,"low":1,"high":26,"coverage":true,"width":25,"pitLower":0.75,"pitUpper":0.785,"empiricalMass":0.035,"logScore":3.3524072174927233},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":1.535425,"mean":10.075,"median":9,"bias":-0.9250000000000007,"maeMean":0.9250000000000007,"maeMedian":2,"low":2,"high":23,"coverage":true,"width":21,"pitLower":0.61,"pitUpper":0.68,"empiricalMass":0.07,"logScore":2.659260036932778},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":1.21475,"mean":13.13,"median":13,"bias":2.130000000000001,"maeMean":2.130000000000001,"maeMedian":2,"low":7,"high":19,"coverage":true,"width":12,"pitLower":0.225,"pitUpper":0.345,"empiricalMass":0.12,"logScore":2.120263536200091},"recentPoisson":{"crps":1.9028999999999998,"mean":7.97,"median":8,"bias":-3.0300000000000002,"maeMean":3.0300000000000002,"maeMedian":3,"low":4,"high":12,"coverage":true,"width":8,"pitLower":0.795,"pitUpper":0.86,"empiricalMass":0.065,"logScore":2.7333680090865},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":4.28745,"mean":8.95,"median":2.5,"bias":-2.0500000000000007,"maeMean":2.0500000000000007,"maeMedian":8.5,"low":0,"high":35,"coverage":true,"width":35,"pitLower":0.7,"pitUpper":0.725,"empiricalMass":0.025,"logScore":3.6888794541139363}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"1":0.025,"2":0.09,"3":0.05,"4":0.065,"5":0.095,"6":0.115,"7":0.1,"8":0.065,"9":0.045,"10":0.1,"11":0.035,"12":0.005,"13":0.025,"14":0.025,"15":0.01,"16":0.02,"17":0.01,"18":0.005,"19":0.005,"20":0.005,"22":0.015,"23":0.01,"24":0.005,"25":0.015,"27":0.015,"28":0.005,"29":0.005,"34":0.005,"35":0.005,"36":0.005,"39":0.01,"40":0.005,"84":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.015,"1":0.075,"2":0.07,"3":0.06,"4":0.085,"5":0.105,"6":0.095,"7":0.085,"8":0.06,"9":0.045,"10":0.055,"11":0.035,"12":0.03,"13":0.025,"14":0.015,"15":0.01,"16":0.01,"17":0.005,"18":0.01,"19":0.015,"20":0.01,"21":0.01,"23":0.01,"24":0.005,"25":0.005,"26":0.005,"27":0.005,"30":0.005,"32":0.01,"38":0.01,"39":0.005,"46":0.005,"55":0.005,"58":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.01,"1":0.02,"2":0.03,"3":0.035,"4":0.06,"5":0.055,"6":0.1,"7":0.085,"8":0.08,"9":0.055,"10":0.08,"11":0.07,"12":0.035,"13":0.065,"14":0.06,"15":0.025,"16":0.02,"17":0.03,"18":0.02,"19":0.01,"23":0.005,"24":0.005,"25":0.01,"26":0.005,"29":0.005,"30":0.005,"31":0.005,"33":0.005,"35":0.005,"42":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"5":0.015,"6":0.02,"7":0.02,"8":0.05,"9":0.045,"10":0.075,"11":0.12,"12":0.115,"13":0.12,"14":0.095,"15":0.075,"16":0.055,"17":0.075,"18":0.055,"19":0.02,"20":0.01,"21":0.01,"22":0.01,"23":0.005,"25":0.005,"26":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"2":0.005,"3":0.035,"4":0.08,"5":0.08,"6":0.14,"7":0.15,"8":0.11,"9":0.09,"10":0.105,"11":0.065,"12":0.09,"13":0.025,"14":0.01,"15":0.01,"19":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.275,"1":0.125,"2":0.1,"3":0.05,"4":0.03,"5":0.02,"6":0.035,"7":0.02,"8":0.01,"9":0.02,"10":0.015,"11":0.025,"12":0.02,"13":0.015,"14":0.03,"15":0.005,"16":0.005,"17":0.02,"18":0.01,"19":0.01,"20":0.01,"21":0.02,"22":0.015,"23":0.015,"24":0.005,"27":0.005,"28":0.01,"29":0.005,"30":0.005,"32":0.005,"33":0.005,"34":0.005,"35":0.005,"38":0.005,"39":0.01,"41":0.005,"45":0.005,"57":0.005,"61":0.005,"73":0.005,"74":0.01}}},{"issuedAt":1592956800000,"validUntil":1593561600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":3,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4445,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2020","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.4661249999999999,"mean":1.315,"median":1,"bias":1.315,"maeMean":1.315,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.42,"empiricalMass":0.42,"logScore":0.8675005677047231},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.38795,"mean":1.32,"median":1,"bias":1.32,"maeMean":1.32,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.485,"empiricalMass":0.485,"logScore":0.7236063880446539},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.47029999999999994,"mean":1.13,"median":1,"bias":1.13,"maeMean":1.13,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.395,"empiricalMass":0.395,"logScore":0.9288695140810151},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":1.10115,"mean":1.84,"median":2,"bias":1.84,"maeMean":1.84,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.15,"empiricalMass":0.15,"logScore":1.8971199848858813},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.747775,"mean":1.315,"median":1,"bias":1.315,"maeMean":1.315,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.235,"empiricalMass":0.235,"logScore":1.448169764837978},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.26734999999999975,"mean":2.03,"median":0,"bias":2.03,"maeMean":2.03,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":11,"coverage":true,"width":11,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.7,"empiricalMass":0.7,"logScore":0.35667494393873245}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.42,"1":0.285,"2":0.135,"3":0.06,"4":0.035,"5":0.025,"6":0.01,"7":0.015,"8":0.01,"14":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.485,"1":0.26,"2":0.08,"3":0.055,"4":0.035,"5":0.035,"6":0.015,"7":0.005,"8":0.01,"9":0.005,"10":0.005,"12":0.01},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.395,"1":0.315,"2":0.165,"3":0.065,"4":0.035,"5":0.01,"6":0.005,"7":0.01},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.15,"1":0.32,"2":0.245,"3":0.165,"4":0.075,"5":0.035,"6":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.235,"1":0.385,"2":0.25,"3":0.095,"4":0.03,"5":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.7,"1":0.085,"2":0.035,"3":0.025,"4":0.02,"5":0.03,"6":0.01,"7":0.015,"8":0.005,"10":0.015,"11":0.01,"12":0.01,"16":0.01,"17":0.005,"20":0.005,"23":0.005,"32":0.005,"33":0.005,"40":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1592956800000,"validUntil":1593561600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4445,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2020","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.011425000000000005,"mean":0.125,"median":0,"bias":0.125,"maeMean":0.125,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.895,"empiricalMass":0.895,"logScore":0.11093156070728166},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.014575000000000005,"mean":0.195,"median":0,"bias":0.195,"maeMean":0.195,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.895,"empiricalMass":0.895,"logScore":0.11093156070728166},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.017000000000000015,"mean":0.14,"median":0,"bias":0.14,"maeMean":0.14,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.87,"empiricalMass":0.87,"logScore":0.13926206733350766},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.028624999999999984,"mean":0.215,"median":0,"bias":0.215,"maeMean":0.215,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.84,"empiricalMass":0.84,"logScore":0.1743533871447778},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.013249999999999998,"mean":0.12,"median":0,"bias":0.12,"maeMean":0.12,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.885,"empiricalMass":0.885,"logScore":0.12216763397420753},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.008199999999999999,"mean":0.1,"median":0,"bias":0.1,"maeMean":0.1,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.91,"empiricalMass":0.91,"logScore":0.09431067947124129}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.895,"1":0.085,"2":0.02},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.895,"1":0.05,"2":0.035,"3":0.01,"4":0.005,"5":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.87,"1":0.12,"2":0.01},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.84,"1":0.105,"2":0.055},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.885,"1":0.11,"2":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.91,"1":0.08,"2":0.01}}},{"issuedAt":1592956800000,"validUntil":1595548800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":2,"actual":26,"trainingCount":4445,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2020","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":15.900950000000002,"mean":55.22,"median":50,"bias":29.22,"maeMean":29.22,"maeMedian":24,"low":22,"high":113,"coverage":true,"width":91,"pitLower":0.095,"pitUpper":0.11,"empiricalMass":0.015,"logScore":4.199705077879927},"rollingETAS":{"crps":10.345725,"mean":48.975,"median":42,"bias":22.975,"maeMean":22.975,"maeMedian":16,"low":16,"high":103,"coverage":true,"width":87,"pitLower":0.175,"pitUpper":0.185,"empiricalMass":0.01,"logScore":4.605170185988091},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":14.054275,"mean":52.815,"median":45.5,"bias":26.814999999999998,"maeMean":26.814999999999998,"maeMedian":19.5,"low":23,"high":102,"coverage":true,"width":79,"pitLower":0.075,"pitUpper":0.08,"empiricalMass":0.005,"logScore":5.298317366548036},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":24.3207,"mean":54.72,"median":54,"bias":28.72,"maeMean":28.72,"maeMedian":28,"low":42,"high":66,"coverage":false,"width":24,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentPoisson":{"crps":6.166874999999999,"mean":35.125,"median":35,"bias":9.125,"maeMean":9.125,"maeMedian":9,"low":26,"high":45,"coverage":true,"width":19,"pitLower":0.04,"pitUpper":0.055,"empiricalMass":0.015,"logScore":4.199705077879927},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":6.922000000000002,"mean":38.5,"median":31.5,"bias":12.5,"maeMean":12.5,"maeMedian":5.5,"low":5,"high":93,"coverage":true,"width":88,"pitLower":0.42,"pitUpper":0.43,"empiricalMass":0.01,"logScore":4.605170185988091}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"13":0.015,"15":0.01,"16":0.01,"18":0.005,"21":0.005,"22":0.01,"23":0.025,"25":0.015,"26":0.015,"27":0.01,"28":0.01,"29":0.015,"30":0.005,"31":0.02,"32":0.005,"33":0.015,"34":0.02,"35":0.03,"36":0.005,"37":0.025,"39":0.02,"40":0.015,"41":0.005,"42":0.03,"43":0.025,"44":0.03,"45":0.015,"46":0.035,"47":0.01,"48":0.015,"49":0.025,"50":0.02,"51":0.025,"52":0.01,"53":0.01,"54":0.01,"55":0.005,"56":0.045,"57":0.025,"58":0.005,"59":0.015,"60":0.01,"61":0.015,"62":0.015,"63":0.015,"64":0.005,"65":0.01,"66":0.01,"67":0.005,"68":0.015,"69":0.005,"70":0.015,"71":0.01,"72":0.005,"73":0.01,"74":0.01,"75":0.01,"77":0.01,"78":0.01,"79":0.005,"81":0.005,"82":0.01,"84":0.005,"87":0.02,"88":0.005,"89":0.005,"90":0.005,"92":0.01,"93":0.005,"95":0.005,"96":0.005,"98":0.005,"108":0.005,"113":0.005,"114":0.005,"119":0.005,"123":0.005,"125":0.01,"132":0.005,"140":0.005,"146":0.005,"169":0.005,"178":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"11":0.005,"13":0.01,"14":0.01,"15":0.005,"16":0.025,"17":0.01,"18":0.015,"19":0.02,"20":0.025,"21":0.005,"22":0.005,"23":0.02,"24":0.015,"25":0.005,"26":0.01,"27":0.025,"28":0.02,"29":0.025,"30":0.02,"31":0.015,"32":0.04,"33":0.015,"34":0.045,"35":0.025,"36":0.015,"37":0.02,"39":0.02,"40":0.005,"41":0.02,"42":0.015,"43":0.01,"44":0.005,"45":0.035,"46":0.01,"47":0.005,"48":0.01,"49":0.03,"50":0.01,"51":0.02,"52":0.01,"53":0.02,"54":0.01,"55":0.02,"56":0.015,"57":0.015,"58":0.025,"59":0.015,"60":0.005,"61":0.005,"65":0.005,"66":0.005,"67":0.005,"68":0.015,"70":0.015,"71":0.01,"72":0.005,"73":0.005,"74":0.01,"77":0.01,"80":0.005,"81":0.01,"83":0.005,"84":0.005,"86":0.005,"87":0.005,"90":0.01,"91":0.005,"94":0.005,"95":0.005,"96":0.005,"102":0.005,"103":0.01,"106":0.005,"111":0.005,"115":0.005,"116":0.005,"147":0.005,"148":0.005,"152":0.005,"161":0.005,"170":0.005,"182":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"14":0.005,"15":0.005,"18":0.005,"19":0.005,"20":0.005,"21":0.015,"23":0.01,"24":0.02,"25":0.005,"26":0.005,"27":0.005,"28":0.02,"29":0.01,"30":0.005,"31":0.055,"32":0.035,"33":0.02,"34":0.03,"35":0.03,"36":0.02,"37":0.035,"38":0.03,"39":0.02,"40":0.01,"41":0.015,"42":0.015,"43":0.025,"44":0.01,"45":0.03,"46":0.025,"47":0.02,"48":0.01,"49":0.005,"50":0.015,"51":0.005,"52":0.015,"53":0.015,"54":0.005,"55":0.005,"57":0.02,"58":0.02,"59":0.02,"60":0.015,"61":0.015,"63":0.01,"64":0.02,"65":0.01,"66":0.005,"67":0.01,"68":0.02,"69":0.01,"72":0.01,"73":0.005,"74":0.01,"76":0.01,"77":0.005,"78":0.005,"79":0.01,"80":0.005,"83":0.005,"84":0.005,"85":0.005,"86":0.005,"88":0.005,"89":0.01,"90":0.005,"91":0.005,"92":0.01,"94":0.01,"95":0.005,"97":0.015,"101":0.005,"102":0.01,"103":0.005,"106":0.005,"107":0.005,"116":0.005,"119":0.005,"121":0.005,"127":0.005,"129":0.005,"139":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"37":0.01,"38":0.01,"40":0.01,"41":0.005,"42":0.025,"43":0.025,"44":0.02,"45":0.025,"46":0.015,"47":0.05,"48":0.03,"49":0.03,"50":0.03,"51":0.04,"52":0.055,"53":0.08,"54":0.045,"55":0.035,"56":0.045,"57":0.045,"58":0.06,"59":0.035,"60":0.05,"61":0.04,"62":0.035,"63":0.02,"64":0.015,"65":0.03,"66":0.035,"67":0.005,"68":0.01,"69":0.005,"72":0.01,"73":0.005,"74":0.005,"75":0.005,"76":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"21":0.005,"22":0.01,"24":0.01,"25":0.015,"26":0.015,"27":0.015,"28":0.04,"29":0.06,"30":0.075,"31":0.035,"32":0.04,"33":0.04,"34":0.065,"35":0.125,"36":0.06,"37":0.07,"38":0.055,"39":0.045,"40":0.055,"41":0.04,"42":0.05,"43":0.01,"44":0.01,"45":0.025,"46":0.005,"47":0.005,"50":0.01,"51":0.005,"52":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"1":0.005,"2":0.015,"3":0.01,"4":0.015,"5":0.01,"6":0.01,"7":0.01,"8":0.025,"9":0.03,"10":0.03,"11":0.01,"13":0.025,"14":0.02,"15":0.01,"16":0.015,"17":0.025,"18":0.025,"19":0.02,"20":0.015,"21":0.02,"22":0.02,"23":0.015,"24":0.025,"25":0.015,"26":0.01,"27":0.005,"28":0.015,"29":0.005,"30":0.025,"31":0.02,"32":0.01,"33":0.015,"34":0.01,"35":0.02,"36":0.005,"37":0.03,"38":0.015,"39":0.015,"40":0.01,"41":0.01,"44":0.005,"45":0.03,"46":0.02,"47":0.005,"48":0.005,"49":0.005,"50":0.01,"51":0.015,"52":0.01,"53":0.005,"55":0.01,"56":0.005,"57":0.005,"58":0.015,"59":0.005,"60":0.01,"61":0.005,"62":0.01,"63":0.005,"65":0.03,"66":0.005,"67":0.005,"69":0.01,"72":0.005,"73":0.005,"74":0.01,"75":0.005,"76":0.005,"78":0.01,"81":0.015,"82":0.005,"83":0.005,"85":0.005,"87":0.005,"93":0.005,"95":0.005,"103":0.005,"104":0.005,"107":0.005,"118":0.005,"126":0.005,"127":0.005,"138":0.005,"146":0.005,"155":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1592956800000,"validUntil":1595548800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":3,"actual":3,"trainingCount":4445,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2020","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":1.8051,"mean":6.88,"median":6,"bias":3.88,"maeMean":3.88,"maeMedian":3,"low":1,"high":16,"coverage":true,"width":15,"pitLower":0.16,"pitUpper":0.245,"empiricalMass":0.085,"logScore":2.4651040224918206},"rollingETAS":{"crps":1.7216750000000003,"mean":6.975,"median":5,"bias":3.9749999999999996,"maeMean":3.9749999999999996,"maeMedian":2,"low":1,"high":18,"coverage":true,"width":17,"pitLower":0.19,"pitUpper":0.295,"empiricalMass":0.105,"logScore":2.2537949288246137},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":1.49215,"mean":6.37,"median":5,"bias":3.37,"maeMean":3.37,"maeMedian":2,"low":1,"high":15,"coverage":true,"width":14,"pitLower":0.165,"pitUpper":0.3,"empiricalMass":0.135,"logScore":2.0024805005437076},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":2.9290499999999997,"mean":7.41,"median":7,"bias":4.41,"maeMean":4.41,"maeMedian":4,"low":3,"high":12,"coverage":true,"width":9,"pitLower":0.03,"pitUpper":0.075,"empiricalMass":0.045,"logScore":3.101092789211817},"recentPoisson":{"crps":1.532275,"mean":5.615,"median":5,"bias":2.615,"maeMean":2.615,"maeMedian":2,"low":2,"high":9,"coverage":true,"width":7,"pitLower":0.065,"pitUpper":0.175,"empiricalMass":0.11,"logScore":2.2072749131897207},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":1.3856000000000002,"mean":5.54,"median":2.5,"bias":2.54,"maeMean":2.54,"maeMedian":0.5,"low":0,"high":23,"coverage":true,"width":23,"pitLower":0.5,"pitUpper":0.555,"empiricalMass":0.055,"logScore":2.900422093749666}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.025,"1":0.055,"2":0.08,"3":0.085,"4":0.155,"5":0.05,"6":0.085,"7":0.13,"8":0.08,"9":0.05,"10":0.025,"11":0.02,"12":0.025,"13":0.03,"14":0.035,"15":0.005,"16":0.015,"17":0.01,"18":0.01,"19":0.005,"23":0.005,"24":0.01,"25":0.005,"28":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.04,"1":0.07,"2":0.08,"3":0.105,"4":0.115,"5":0.105,"6":0.055,"7":0.07,"8":0.075,"9":0.04,"10":0.045,"11":0.03,"12":0.025,"13":0.025,"14":0.01,"15":0.03,"16":0.025,"18":0.015,"19":0.01,"22":0.005,"24":0.005,"26":0.01,"31":0.005,"33":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.03,"1":0.04,"2":0.095,"3":0.135,"4":0.15,"5":0.08,"6":0.105,"7":0.045,"8":0.06,"9":0.03,"10":0.045,"11":0.035,"12":0.03,"13":0.02,"14":0.035,"15":0.02,"16":0.01,"17":0.005,"18":0.02,"19":0.01},"expandingPoisson":{"2":0.03,"3":0.045,"4":0.075,"5":0.09,"6":0.16,"7":0.125,"8":0.135,"9":0.12,"10":0.09,"11":0.065,"12":0.03,"13":0.02,"14":0.005,"16":0.005,"17":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.005,"1":0.02,"2":0.04,"3":0.11,"4":0.16,"5":0.18,"6":0.135,"7":0.165,"8":0.09,"9":0.045,"10":0.025,"11":0.01,"13":0.015},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.27,"1":0.145,"2":0.085,"3":0.055,"4":0.035,"5":0.065,"6":0.025,"7":0.04,"8":0.025,"9":0.06,"10":0.045,"11":0.02,"12":0.025,"14":0.005,"15":0.01,"16":0.01,"17":0.005,"18":0.005,"19":0.015,"23":0.01,"26":0.005,"29":0.01,"30":0.005,"31":0.01,"33":0.01,"35":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1592956800000,"validUntil":1595548800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4445,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2020","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.3319,"mean":0.97,"median":0.5,"bias":0.97,"maeMean":0.97,"maeMedian":0.5,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.5,"empiricalMass":0.5,"logScore":0.6931471805599453},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.26912499999999995,"mean":0.855,"median":0,"bias":0.855,"maeMean":0.855,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.535,"empiricalMass":0.535,"logScore":0.6254885320861304},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.24985000000000002,"mean":0.8,"median":0,"bias":0.8,"maeMean":0.8,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.555,"empiricalMass":0.555,"logScore":0.5887871652357024},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.46314999999999995,"mean":0.95,"median":1,"bias":0.95,"maeMean":0.95,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.365,"empiricalMass":0.365,"logScore":1.0078579253996456},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.154725,"mean":0.475,"median":0,"bias":0.475,"maeMean":0.475,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.615,"empiricalMass":0.615,"logScore":0.4861330111756192},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.0736,"mean":0.4,"median":0,"bias":0.4,"maeMean":0.4,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.74,"empiricalMass":0.74,"logScore":0.3011050927839216}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.5,"1":0.24,"2":0.165,"3":0.03,"4":0.035,"5":0.02,"6":0.005,"8":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.535,"1":0.26,"2":0.12,"3":0.035,"4":0.02,"5":0.015,"6":0.01,"7":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.555,"1":0.245,"2":0.1,"3":0.06,"4":0.025,"5":0.015},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.365,"1":0.395,"2":0.2,"3":0.015,"4":0.015,"5":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.615,"1":0.305,"2":0.07,"3":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.74,"1":0.195,"2":0.035,"3":0.005,"4":0.01,"5":0.01,"6":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1595548800000,"validUntil":1595635200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":2,"actual":1,"trainingCount":4471,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2020","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.30504999999999993,"mean":1.32,"median":1,"bias":0.32000000000000006,"maeMean":0.32000000000000006,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.405,"pitUpper":0.68,"empiricalMass":0.275,"logScore":1.2909841813155656},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.30957499999999993,"mean":1.495,"median":1,"bias":0.4950000000000001,"maeMean":0.4950000000000001,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":6,"coverage":true,"width":6,"pitLower":0.43,"pitUpper":0.735,"empiricalMass":0.305,"logScore":1.1874435023747254},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.2633249999999999,"mean":1.275,"median":1,"bias":0.2749999999999999,"maeMean":0.2749999999999999,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.38,"pitUpper":0.705,"empiricalMass":0.325,"logScore":1.1239300966523995},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.4951,"mean":1.99,"median":2,"bias":0.99,"maeMean":0.99,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.125,"pitUpper":0.41,"empiricalMass":0.285,"logScore":1.2552660987134867},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.232475,"mean":1.315,"median":1,"bias":0.31499999999999995,"maeMean":0.31499999999999995,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.265,"pitUpper":0.625,"empiricalMass":0.36,"logScore":1.0216512475319814},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.57265,"mean":1.03,"median":0,"bias":0.030000000000000027,"maeMean":0.030000000000000027,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.705,"pitUpper":0.805,"empiricalMass":0.1,"logScore":2.3025850929940455}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.405,"1":0.275,"2":0.16,"3":0.065,"4":0.05,"5":0.015,"6":0.005,"7":0.01,"8":0.005,"9":0.005,"14":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.43,"1":0.305,"2":0.095,"3":0.065,"4":0.025,"5":0.025,"6":0.005,"7":0.025,"8":0.005,"9":0.005,"10":0.005,"23":0.005,"25":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.38,"1":0.325,"2":0.16,"3":0.035,"4":0.05,"5":0.025,"6":0.01,"8":0.01,"12":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.125,"1":0.285,"2":0.255,"3":0.205,"4":0.085,"5":0.03,"6":0.015},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.265,"1":0.36,"2":0.235,"3":0.1,"4":0.02,"5":0.015,"6":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.705,"1":0.1,"2":0.07,"3":0.025,"4":0.025,"5":0.03,"6":0.01,"7":0.01,"9":0.005,"12":0.005,"14":0.005,"16":0.01}}},{"issuedAt":1595548800000,"validUntil":1595635200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":3,"actual":1,"trainingCount":4471,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2020","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.7927500000000001,"mean":0.14,"median":0,"bias":-0.86,"maeMean":0.86,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0.89,"pitUpper":0.975,"empiricalMass":0.085,"logScore":2.4651040224918206},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.725125,"mean":0.235,"median":0,"bias":-0.765,"maeMean":0.765,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0.85,"pitUpper":0.955,"empiricalMass":0.105,"logScore":2.2537949288246137},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.80125,"mean":0.12,"median":0,"bias":-0.88,"maeMean":0.88,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0.895,"pitUpper":0.985,"empiricalMass":0.09,"logScore":2.4079456086518722},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.5933,"mean":0.25,"median":0,"bias":-0.75,"maeMean":0.75,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0.77,"pitUpper":0.98,"empiricalMass":0.21,"logScore":1.5606477482646683},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.697325,"mean":0.175,"median":0,"bias":-0.825,"maeMean":0.825,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0.835,"pitUpper":0.99,"empiricalMass":0.155,"logScore":1.8643301620628905},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.9139,"mean":0.16,"median":0,"bias":-0.84,"maeMean":0.84,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":false,"width":0,"pitLower":0.955,"pitUpper":0.975,"empiricalMass":0.02,"logScore":3.912023005428146}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.89,"1":0.085,"2":0.02,"3":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.85,"1":0.105,"2":0.025,"3":0.01,"5":0.01},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.895,"1":0.09,"2":0.015},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.77,"1":0.21,"2":0.02},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.835,"1":0.155,"2":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.955,"1":0.02,"3":0.01,"4":0.005,"7":0.005,"11":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1595548800000,"validUntil":1595635200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":4,"actual":1,"trainingCount":4471,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2020","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.960425,"mean":0.025,"median":0,"bias":-0.975,"maeMean":0.975,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":false,"width":0,"pitLower":0.98,"pitUpper":0.995,"empiricalMass":0.015,"logScore":4.199705077879927},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.93125,"mean":0.04,"median":0,"bias":-0.96,"maeMean":0.96,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":false,"width":0,"pitLower":0.965,"pitUpper":0.995,"empiricalMass":0.03,"logScore":3.506557897319982},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.970225,"mean":0.015,"median":0,"bias":-0.985,"maeMean":0.985,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":false,"width":0,"pitLower":0.985,"pitUpper":1,"empiricalMass":0.015,"logScore":4.199705077879927},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.9216,"mean":0.04,"median":0,"bias":-0.96,"maeMean":0.96,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":false,"width":0,"pitLower":0.96,"pitUpper":1,"empiricalMass":0.04,"logScore":3.2188758248682006},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.970225,"mean":0.015,"median":0,"bias":-0.985,"maeMean":0.985,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":false,"width":0,"pitLower":0.985,"pitUpper":1,"empiricalMass":0.015,"logScore":4.199705077879927},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.970225,"mean":0.015,"median":0,"bias":-0.985,"maeMean":0.985,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":false,"width":0,"pitLower":0.985,"pitUpper":1,"empiricalMass":0.015,"logScore":4.199705077879927}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.98,"1":0.015,"2":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.965,"1":0.03,"2":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.985,"1":0.015},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.96,"1":0.04},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.985,"1":0.015},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.985,"1":0.015}}},{"issuedAt":1595548800000,"validUntil":1596153600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":2,"actual":3,"trainingCount":4471,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2020","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":4.294725,"mean":11.105,"median":9,"bias":8.105,"maeMean":8.105,"maeMedian":6,"low":3,"high":25,"coverage":true,"width":22,"pitLower":0.02,"pitUpper":0.055,"empiricalMass":0.035,"logScore":3.3524072174927233},"rollingETAS":{"crps":3.2613000000000003,"mean":10.05,"median":8,"bias":7.050000000000001,"maeMean":7.050000000000001,"maeMedian":5,"low":1,"high":27,"coverage":true,"width":26,"pitLower":0.09,"pitUpper":0.16,"empiricalMass":0.07,"logScore":2.659260036932778},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":4.926000000000001,"mean":12.15,"median":10,"bias":9.15,"maeMean":9.15,"maeMedian":7,"low":2,"high":28,"coverage":true,"width":26,"pitLower":0.05,"pitUpper":0.07,"empiricalMass":0.02,"logScore":3.912023005428146},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":8.1529,"mean":13.06,"median":13,"bias":10.06,"maeMean":10.06,"maeMedian":10,"low":8,"high":18,"coverage":false,"width":10,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentPoisson":{"crps":3.675775,"mean":8.155,"median":8,"bias":5.154999999999999,"maeMean":5.154999999999999,"maeMedian":5,"low":4,"high":12,"coverage":false,"width":8,"pitLower":0.005,"pitUpper":0.035,"empiricalMass":0.03,"logScore":3.506557897319982},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":2.040725,"mean":8.485,"median":5,"bias":5.484999999999999,"maeMean":5.484999999999999,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":27,"coverage":true,"width":27,"pitLower":0.34,"pitUpper":0.4,"empiricalMass":0.06,"logScore":2.8134107167600364}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"1":0.005,"2":0.015,"3":0.035,"4":0.075,"5":0.085,"6":0.105,"7":0.1,"8":0.065,"9":0.05,"10":0.065,"11":0.04,"12":0.045,"13":0.025,"14":0.02,"15":0.04,"16":0.025,"17":0.035,"18":0.03,"19":0.025,"20":0.015,"21":0.01,"22":0.01,"23":0.01,"24":0.015,"25":0.005,"27":0.01,"29":0.01,"31":0.005,"33":0.005,"37":0.015,"43":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.02,"1":0.03,"2":0.04,"3":0.07,"4":0.08,"5":0.08,"6":0.09,"7":0.055,"8":0.07,"9":0.075,"10":0.075,"11":0.04,"12":0.04,"14":0.03,"15":0.015,"16":0.015,"17":0.02,"18":0.015,"19":0.02,"20":0.025,"21":0.015,"22":0.01,"23":0.015,"27":0.005,"31":0.005,"32":0.005,"33":0.005,"34":0.005,"36":0.005,"37":0.015,"39":0.005,"42":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.005,"1":0.015,"2":0.03,"3":0.02,"4":0.045,"5":0.075,"6":0.07,"7":0.075,"8":0.07,"9":0.065,"10":0.055,"11":0.065,"12":0.04,"13":0.04,"14":0.035,"15":0.045,"16":0.045,"17":0.025,"18":0.015,"19":0.015,"20":0.025,"21":0.01,"22":0.015,"23":0.005,"24":0.015,"25":0.01,"26":0.01,"27":0.005,"28":0.005,"29":0.005,"32":0.015,"36":0.015,"46":0.005,"51":0.005,"58":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"5":0.015,"6":0.01,"7":0.02,"8":0.03,"9":0.04,"10":0.11,"11":0.135,"12":0.08,"13":0.135,"14":0.12,"15":0.085,"16":0.075,"17":0.05,"18":0.045,"19":0.015,"20":0.01,"21":0.005,"22":0.005,"24":0.01,"26":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"1":0.005,"3":0.03,"4":0.05,"5":0.05,"6":0.145,"7":0.165,"8":0.13,"9":0.11,"10":0.12,"11":0.09,"12":0.055,"13":0.02,"14":0.015,"15":0.005,"16":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.165,"1":0.115,"2":0.06,"3":0.06,"4":0.065,"5":0.045,"6":0.045,"7":0.055,"8":0.04,"9":0.045,"10":0.03,"11":0.04,"12":0.045,"13":0.02,"14":0.025,"15":0.005,"16":0.005,"17":0.01,"18":0.015,"20":0.015,"21":0.005,"22":0.005,"23":0.005,"24":0.01,"25":0.015,"27":0.005,"29":0.005,"30":0.005,"36":0.005,"40":0.005,"47":0.005,"48":0.005,"50":0.005,"54":0.005,"64":0.005,"70":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1595548800000,"validUntil":1596153600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":3,"actual":1,"trainingCount":4471,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2020","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.2869249999999999,"mean":1.345,"median":1,"bias":0.345,"maeMean":0.345,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.35,"pitUpper":0.66,"empiricalMass":0.31,"logScore":1.171182981502945},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.3364499999999999,"mean":1.31,"median":1,"bias":0.31000000000000005,"maeMean":0.31000000000000005,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.41,"pitUpper":0.66,"empiricalMass":0.25,"logScore":1.3862943611198906},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.36482499999999995,"mean":1.615,"median":1,"bias":0.615,"maeMean":0.615,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.35,"pitUpper":0.605,"empiricalMass":0.255,"logScore":1.3664917338237108},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.4322999999999999,"mean":1.89,"median":2,"bias":0.8899999999999999,"maeMean":0.8899999999999999,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.125,"pitUpper":0.445,"empiricalMass":0.32,"logScore":1.1394342831883648},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.22250000000000003,"mean":1.33,"median":1,"bias":0.33000000000000007,"maeMean":0.33000000000000007,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.27,"pitUpper":0.65,"empiricalMass":0.38,"logScore":0.9675840262617056},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.547725,"mean":1.235,"median":0,"bias":0.2350000000000001,"maeMean":0.2350000000000001,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":8,"coverage":true,"width":8,"pitLower":0.67,"pitUpper":0.805,"empiricalMass":0.135,"logScore":2.0024805005437076}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.35,"1":0.31,"2":0.145,"3":0.1,"4":0.055,"5":0.03,"6":0.005,"9":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.41,"1":0.25,"2":0.135,"3":0.12,"4":0.03,"5":0.04,"7":0.01,"8":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.35,"1":0.255,"2":0.16,"3":0.09,"4":0.06,"5":0.045,"6":0.01,"7":0.02,"10":0.005,"11":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.125,"1":0.32,"2":0.255,"3":0.165,"4":0.115,"5":0.015,"6":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.27,"1":0.38,"2":0.2,"3":0.09,"4":0.03,"5":0.02,"6":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.67,"1":0.135,"2":0.05,"3":0.04,"4":0.005,"5":0.015,"6":0.02,"7":0.01,"8":0.01,"9":0.01,"10":0.01,"11":0.01,"12":0.01,"19":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1595548800000,"validUntil":1596153600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":4,"actual":1,"trainingCount":4471,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2020","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.7494500000000001,"mean":0.17,"median":0,"bias":-0.83,"maeMean":0.83,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0.865,"pitUpper":0.965,"empiricalMass":0.1,"logScore":2.3025850929940455},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.74,"mean":0.16,"median":0,"bias":-0.84,"maeMean":0.84,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0.86,"pitUpper":0.98,"empiricalMass":0.12,"logScore":2.120263536200091},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.7313000000000001,"mean":0.17,"median":0,"bias":-0.83,"maeMean":0.83,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0.855,"pitUpper":0.985,"empiricalMass":0.13,"logScore":2.0402208285265546},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.64825,"mean":0.21,"median":0,"bias":-0.79,"maeMean":0.79,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0.805,"pitUpper":0.985,"empiricalMass":0.18,"logScore":1.7147984280919266},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.819125,"mean":0.105,"median":0,"bias":-0.895,"maeMean":0.895,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0.905,"pitUpper":0.99,"empiricalMass":0.085,"logScore":2.4651040224918206},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.9028999999999999,"mean":0.07,"median":0,"bias":-0.9299999999999999,"maeMean":0.9299999999999999,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":false,"width":0,"pitLower":0.95,"pitUpper":0.98,"empiricalMass":0.03,"logScore":3.506557897319982}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.865,"1":0.1,"2":0.035},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.86,"1":0.12,"2":0.02},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.855,"1":0.13,"2":0.01,"4":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.805,"1":0.18,"2":0.015},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.905,"1":0.085,"2":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.95,"1":0.03,"2":0.02}}},{"issuedAt":1595548800000,"validUntil":1598140800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":2,"actual":14,"trainingCount":4471,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2020","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":24.3527,"mean":49.89,"median":45.5,"bias":35.89,"maeMean":35.89,"maeMedian":31.5,"low":24,"high":93,"coverage":false,"width":69,"pitLower":0.005,"pitUpper":0.005,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"rollingETAS":{"crps":21.80585,"mean":51.35,"median":43,"bias":37.35,"maeMean":37.35,"maeMedian":29,"low":17,"high":121,"coverage":false,"width":104,"pitLower":0.01,"pitUpper":0.02,"empiricalMass":0.01,"logScore":4.605170185988091},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":27.395125,"mean":55.125,"median":48.5,"bias":41.125,"maeMean":41.125,"maeMedian":34.5,"low":22,"high":110,"coverage":false,"width":88,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":36.892799999999994,"mean":55.48,"median":55,"bias":41.48,"maeMean":41.48,"maeMedian":41,"low":43,"high":69,"coverage":false,"width":26,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentPoisson":{"crps":17.823725,"mean":35.395,"median":35,"bias":21.395000000000003,"maeMean":21.395000000000003,"maeMedian":21,"low":25,"high":46,"coverage":false,"width":21,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":10.470799999999999,"mean":35.54,"median":30,"bias":21.54,"maeMean":21.54,"maeMedian":16,"low":7,"high":80,"coverage":true,"width":73,"pitLower":0.14,"pitUpper":0.15,"empiricalMass":0.01,"logScore":4.605170185988091}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"12":0.005,"17":0.005,"19":0.005,"21":0.005,"22":0.005,"23":0.01,"24":0.015,"26":0.02,"27":0.02,"28":0.04,"29":0.02,"30":0.01,"31":0.01,"32":0.025,"33":0.02,"34":0.03,"35":0.02,"36":0.03,"37":0.02,"38":0.05,"39":0.015,"40":0.035,"41":0.02,"42":0.015,"43":0.02,"44":0.01,"45":0.02,"46":0.04,"47":0.02,"48":0.005,"49":0.02,"50":0.02,"51":0.03,"52":0.01,"53":0.01,"54":0.02,"55":0.02,"56":0.015,"57":0.025,"58":0.02,"59":0.005,"60":0.015,"61":0.005,"62":0.01,"63":0.01,"64":0.01,"65":0.015,"66":0.015,"68":0.005,"70":0.015,"71":0.005,"72":0.005,"73":0.005,"74":0.005,"78":0.005,"79":0.005,"81":0.015,"82":0.01,"83":0.005,"86":0.005,"87":0.005,"88":0.01,"91":0.005,"93":0.005,"95":0.01,"96":0.005,"103":0.005,"104":0.005,"109":0.005,"113":0.005,"128":0.005,"134":0.005,"155":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"8":0.005,"13":0.005,"14":0.01,"15":0.005,"16":0.015,"17":0.01,"18":0.005,"19":0.025,"20":0.01,"21":0.01,"23":0.02,"24":0.01,"25":0.015,"26":0.015,"27":0.02,"28":0.005,"29":0.01,"30":0.015,"31":0.015,"32":0.015,"33":0.035,"34":0.015,"35":0.025,"36":0.05,"37":0.035,"38":0.01,"39":0.025,"40":0.015,"41":0.035,"42":0.005,"43":0.015,"44":0.025,"45":0.015,"46":0.015,"47":0.01,"48":0.02,"49":0.02,"50":0.02,"51":0.02,"52":0.02,"53":0.005,"54":0.015,"56":0.02,"57":0.025,"58":0.01,"59":0.01,"61":0.01,"62":0.005,"63":0.005,"64":0.015,"65":0.005,"67":0.01,"68":0.005,"70":0.005,"72":0.02,"73":0.005,"76":0.01,"77":0.015,"79":0.005,"82":0.015,"83":0.005,"86":0.005,"89":0.005,"93":0.005,"96":0.005,"98":0.005,"101":0.005,"102":0.005,"105":0.005,"106":0.005,"109":0.005,"110":0.005,"121":0.005,"134":0.005,"135":0.005,"137":0.005,"138":0.005,"140":0.005,"145":0.005,"147":0.005,"158":0.005,"172":0.005,"192":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"19":0.01,"20":0.01,"22":0.03,"23":0.01,"24":0.01,"25":0.01,"26":0.005,"27":0.01,"29":0.01,"30":0.005,"31":0.04,"32":0.02,"33":0.015,"34":0.02,"35":0.025,"36":0.02,"37":0.01,"38":0.01,"39":0.025,"40":0.005,"41":0.02,"42":0.02,"43":0.04,"44":0.015,"45":0.015,"46":0.025,"47":0.035,"48":0.03,"49":0.03,"50":0.015,"51":0.015,"52":0.01,"53":0.01,"54":0.005,"55":0.025,"56":0.03,"57":0.005,"58":0.01,"59":0.01,"60":0.005,"61":0.015,"62":0.005,"63":0.02,"64":0.025,"65":0.02,"66":0.005,"68":0.005,"70":0.005,"71":0.02,"72":0.01,"73":0.005,"75":0.005,"76":0.015,"77":0.005,"78":0.005,"79":0.02,"80":0.01,"81":0.015,"84":0.005,"85":0.005,"86":0.005,"87":0.005,"89":0.005,"92":0.005,"93":0.005,"95":0.005,"96":0.01,"99":0.005,"101":0.01,"110":0.005,"115":0.005,"116":0.005,"120":0.01,"122":0.005,"130":0.005,"133":0.005,"144":0.005,"146":0.005,"156":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"35":0.005,"39":0.005,"40":0.005,"41":0.015,"42":0.015,"43":0.01,"44":0.005,"45":0.04,"46":0.035,"47":0.04,"48":0.035,"49":0.04,"50":0.035,"51":0.07,"52":0.045,"53":0.02,"54":0.05,"55":0.04,"56":0.05,"57":0.055,"58":0.05,"59":0.035,"60":0.055,"61":0.03,"62":0.02,"63":0.025,"64":0.02,"65":0.025,"66":0.025,"67":0.025,"68":0.005,"69":0.02,"70":0.015,"71":0.005,"74":0.015,"75":0.005,"76":0.005,"80":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"18":0.005,"22":0.005,"24":0.025,"25":0.015,"26":0.025,"27":0.02,"28":0.04,"29":0.05,"30":0.06,"31":0.05,"32":0.065,"33":0.055,"34":0.06,"35":0.045,"36":0.03,"37":0.055,"38":0.065,"39":0.055,"40":0.06,"41":0.06,"42":0.025,"43":0.02,"44":0.025,"45":0.015,"46":0.03,"47":0.005,"48":0.015,"49":0.015,"51":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"1":0.005,"4":0.01,"5":0.01,"7":0.025,"9":0.015,"10":0.01,"11":0.02,"12":0.02,"13":0.025,"14":0.01,"15":0.02,"16":0.025,"17":0.04,"18":0.025,"19":0.04,"20":0.01,"21":0.03,"22":0.015,"23":0.04,"24":0.03,"26":0.015,"27":0.02,"28":0.02,"29":0.01,"30":0.02,"31":0.005,"32":0.025,"33":0.02,"34":0.005,"35":0.015,"36":0.025,"37":0.015,"38":0.02,"39":0.025,"40":0.01,"41":0.005,"42":0.01,"43":0.005,"44":0.005,"46":0.005,"47":0.015,"48":0.025,"49":0.005,"50":0.02,"51":0.015,"52":0.01,"53":0.005,"54":0.01,"55":0.005,"56":0.02,"59":0.005,"60":0.005,"61":0.015,"63":0.015,"64":0.01,"67":0.005,"68":0.02,"71":0.005,"73":0.01,"74":0.005,"75":0.01,"79":0.005,"80":0.005,"81":0.005,"87":0.005,"91":0.005,"92":0.01,"94":0.01,"96":0.005,"104":0.005,"114":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1595548800000,"validUntil":1598140800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":3,"actual":1,"trainingCount":4471,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2020","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":2.704875,"mean":5.865,"median":5,"bias":4.865,"maeMean":4.865,"maeMedian":4,"low":1,"high":15,"coverage":true,"width":14,"pitLower":0.025,"pitUpper":0.095,"empiricalMass":0.07,"logScore":2.659260036932778},"rollingETAS":{"crps":3.3312,"mean":7.26,"median":6,"bias":6.26,"maeMean":6.26,"maeMedian":5,"low":0,"high":19,"coverage":true,"width":19,"pitLower":0.06,"pitUpper":0.105,"empiricalMass":0.045,"logScore":3.101092789211817},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":3.3214,"mean":6.85,"median":6,"bias":5.85,"maeMean":5.85,"maeMedian":5,"low":1,"high":16,"coverage":true,"width":15,"pitLower":0.01,"pitUpper":0.06,"empiricalMass":0.05,"logScore":2.995732273553991},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":4.945025,"mean":7.625,"median":7.5,"bias":6.625,"maeMean":6.625,"maeMedian":6.5,"low":3,"high":13,"coverage":false,"width":10,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.01,"empiricalMass":0.01,"logScore":4.605170185988091},"recentPoisson":{"crps":3.3416500000000005,"mean":5.73,"median":6,"bias":4.73,"maeMean":4.73,"maeMedian":5,"low":2,"high":10,"coverage":false,"width":8,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.04,"empiricalMass":0.04,"logScore":3.2188758248682006},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":2.1706249999999994,"mean":6.975,"median":4,"bias":5.975,"maeMean":5.975,"maeMedian":3,"low":0,"high":26,"coverage":true,"width":26,"pitLower":0.185,"pitUpper":0.32,"empiricalMass":0.135,"logScore":2.0024805005437076}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.025,"1":0.07,"2":0.09,"3":0.115,"4":0.165,"5":0.1,"6":0.12,"7":0.08,"8":0.05,"9":0.03,"10":0.03,"11":0.035,"12":0.02,"13":0.005,"14":0.005,"15":0.01,"16":0.01,"17":0.005,"18":0.01,"19":0.01,"20":0.005,"21":0.005,"26":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.06,"1":0.045,"2":0.055,"3":0.115,"4":0.095,"5":0.095,"6":0.115,"7":0.07,"8":0.05,"9":0.05,"10":0.05,"11":0.015,"12":0.035,"13":0.025,"14":0.015,"16":0.01,"17":0.04,"18":0.005,"19":0.015,"21":0.005,"22":0.01,"25":0.005,"27":0.005,"28":0.005,"31":0.005,"32":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.01,"1":0.05,"2":0.1,"3":0.125,"4":0.085,"5":0.08,"6":0.105,"7":0.12,"8":0.06,"9":0.045,"10":0.045,"11":0.025,"12":0.03,"13":0.01,"14":0.025,"15":0.01,"16":0.025,"17":0.01,"18":0.005,"19":0.015,"20":0.005,"24":0.005,"25":0.01},"expandingPoisson":{"1":0.01,"2":0.025,"3":0.035,"4":0.08,"5":0.1,"6":0.105,"7":0.145,"8":0.145,"9":0.135,"10":0.06,"11":0.065,"12":0.025,"13":0.02,"14":0.015,"15":0.025,"16":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"1":0.04,"2":0.08,"3":0.095,"4":0.09,"5":0.14,"6":0.155,"7":0.155,"8":0.13,"9":0.05,"10":0.035,"11":0.03},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.185,"1":0.135,"2":0.07,"3":0.075,"4":0.08,"5":0.04,"6":0.07,"7":0.035,"8":0.03,"9":0.03,"10":0.01,"11":0.035,"12":0.025,"13":0.005,"14":0.02,"15":0.03,"16":0.005,"17":0.01,"18":0.015,"19":0.005,"20":0.015,"22":0.01,"23":0.005,"25":0.005,"26":0.005,"27":0.015,"28":0.005,"29":0.005,"32":0.005,"34":0.005,"38":0.005,"39":0.005,"58":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1595548800000,"validUntil":1598140800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":4,"actual":1,"trainingCount":4471,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2020","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.39385,"mean":0.61,"median":0,"bias":-0.39,"maeMean":0.39,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.61,"pitUpper":0.865,"empiricalMass":0.255,"logScore":1.3664917338237108},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.3248749999999999,"mean":0.975,"median":1,"bias":-0.025000000000000022,"maeMean":0.025000000000000022,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.495,"pitUpper":0.745,"empiricalMass":0.25,"logScore":1.3862943611198906},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.30022499999999996,"mean":0.885,"median":0.5,"bias":-0.11499999999999999,"maeMean":0.11499999999999999,"maeMedian":0.5,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.5,"pitUpper":0.805,"empiricalMass":0.305,"logScore":1.1874435023747254},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.23495,"mean":1,"median":1,"bias":0,"maeMean":0,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.385,"pitUpper":0.72,"empiricalMass":0.335,"logScore":1.0936247471570706},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.45815,"mean":0.38,"median":0,"bias":-0.62,"maeMean":0.62,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0.675,"pitUpper":0.95,"empiricalMass":0.275,"logScore":1.2909841813155656},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.528125,"mean":0.415,"median":0,"bias":-0.585,"maeMean":0.585,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.72,"pitUpper":0.915,"empiricalMass":0.195,"logScore":1.6347557204183902}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.61,"1":0.255,"2":0.08,"3":0.035,"4":0.01,"5":0.01},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.495,"1":0.25,"2":0.155,"3":0.04,"4":0.03,"5":0.015,"6":0.005,"7":0.01},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.5,"1":0.305,"2":0.1,"3":0.05,"4":0.015,"5":0.015,"6":0.01,"7":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.385,"1":0.335,"2":0.19,"3":0.075,"4":0.015},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.675,"1":0.275,"2":0.045,"3":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.72,"1":0.195,"2":0.035,"3":0.05}}},{"issuedAt":1598140800000,"validUntil":1598227200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":2,"actual":1,"trainingCount":4485,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2020","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.35002500000000003,"mean":0.935,"median":0,"bias":-0.06499999999999995,"maeMean":0.06499999999999995,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.53,"pitUpper":0.78,"empiricalMass":0.25,"logScore":1.3862943611198906},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.3205,"mean":0.94,"median":0,"bias":-0.06000000000000005,"maeMean":0.06000000000000005,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.505,"pitUpper":0.78,"empiricalMass":0.275,"logScore":1.2909841813155656},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.32310000000000005,"mean":1.41,"median":1,"bias":0.4099999999999999,"maeMean":0.4099999999999999,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.43,"pitUpper":0.69,"empiricalMass":0.26,"logScore":1.3470736479666092},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.362575,"mean":1.695,"median":2,"bias":0.6950000000000001,"maeMean":0.6950000000000001,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.18,"pitUpper":0.49,"empiricalMass":0.31,"logScore":1.171182981502945},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.25097499999999995,"mean":1.135,"median":1,"bias":0.135,"maeMean":0.135,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.355,"pitUpper":0.665,"empiricalMass":0.31,"logScore":1.171182981502945},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.5656999999999999,"mean":1,"median":0,"bias":0,"maeMean":0,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":6,"coverage":true,"width":6,"pitLower":0.7,"pitUpper":0.805,"empiricalMass":0.105,"logScore":2.2537949288246137}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.53,"1":0.25,"2":0.09,"3":0.08,"4":0.02,"5":0.015,"6":0.005,"8":0.01},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.505,"1":0.275,"2":0.105,"3":0.065,"4":0.02,"5":0.015,"7":0.015},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.43,"1":0.26,"2":0.135,"3":0.095,"4":0.04,"5":0.005,"6":0.01,"7":0.015,"22":0.005,"27":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.18,"1":0.31,"2":0.26,"3":0.165,"4":0.07,"5":0.005,"6":0.005,"7":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.355,"1":0.31,"2":0.23,"3":0.065,"4":0.03,"5":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.7,"1":0.105,"2":0.08,"3":0.02,"4":0.01,"5":0.015,"6":0.025,"7":0.02,"8":0.01,"9":0.005,"12":0.005,"17":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1598140800000,"validUntil":1598227200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":3,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4485,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2020","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.004250000000000004,"mean":0.07,"median":0,"bias":0.07,"maeMean":0.07,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.935,"empiricalMass":0.935,"logScore":0.06720874969344999},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.017299999999999982,"mean":0.15,"median":0,"bias":0.15,"maeMean":0.15,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.87,"empiricalMass":0.87,"logScore":0.13926206733350766},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.015574999999999978,"mean":0.175,"median":0,"bias":0.175,"maeMean":0.175,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.88,"empiricalMass":0.88,"logScore":0.12783337150988489},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.036750000000000005,"mean":0.22,"median":0,"bias":0.22,"maeMean":0.22,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.81,"empiricalMass":0.81,"logScore":0.21072103131565253},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.019699999999999995,"mean":0.15,"median":0,"bias":0.15,"maeMean":0.15,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.86,"empiricalMass":0.86,"logScore":0.15082288973458366},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.002725000000000005,"mean":0.125,"median":0,"bias":0.125,"maeMean":0.125,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.96,"empiricalMass":0.96,"logScore":0.040821994520255166}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.935,"1":0.06,"2":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.87,"1":0.11,"2":0.02},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.88,"1":0.09,"2":0.015,"3":0.01,"5":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.81,"1":0.165,"2":0.02,"3":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.86,"1":0.13,"2":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.96,"1":0.02,"3":0.01,"5":0.005,"10":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1598140800000,"validUntil":1598227200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4485,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2020","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.00002499999999999985,"mean":0.005,"median":0,"bias":0.005,"maeMean":0.005,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.995,"empiricalMass":0.995,"logScore":0.005012541823544286},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0,"mean":0,"median":0,"bias":0,"maeMean":0,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":1,"empiricalMass":1,"logScore":0},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.0006499999999999978,"mean":0.03,"median":0,"bias":0.03,"maeMean":0.03,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.975,"empiricalMass":0.975,"logScore":0.025317807984289897},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.000899999999999998,"mean":0.03,"median":0,"bias":0.03,"maeMean":0.03,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.97,"empiricalMass":0.97,"logScore":0.030459207484708574},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.000899999999999998,"mean":0.03,"median":0,"bias":0.03,"maeMean":0.03,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.97,"empiricalMass":0.97,"logScore":0.030459207484708574},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.0012500000000000011,"mean":0.04,"median":0,"bias":0.04,"maeMean":0.04,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.965,"empiricalMass":0.965,"logScore":0.03562717764315116}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.995,"1":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":1},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.975,"1":0.02,"2":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.97,"1":0.03},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.97,"1":0.03},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.965,"1":0.03,"2":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1598140800000,"validUntil":1598745600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":2,"actual":5,"trainingCount":4485,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2020","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":2.3012999999999995,"mean":10.78,"median":8.5,"bias":5.779999999999999,"maeMean":5.779999999999999,"maeMedian":3.5,"low":2,"high":23,"coverage":true,"width":21,"pitLower":0.215,"pitUpper":0.295,"empiricalMass":0.08,"logScore":2.5257286443082556},"rollingETAS":{"crps":2.0009750000000004,"mean":9.565,"median":8,"bias":4.5649999999999995,"maeMean":4.5649999999999995,"maeMedian":3,"low":1,"high":26,"coverage":true,"width":25,"pitLower":0.285,"pitUpper":0.33,"empiricalMass":0.045,"logScore":3.101092789211817},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":2.8987500000000006,"mean":11.65,"median":10,"bias":6.65,"maeMean":6.65,"maeMedian":5,"low":2,"high":30,"coverage":true,"width":28,"pitLower":0.155,"pitUpper":0.22,"empiricalMass":0.065,"logScore":2.7333680090865},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":5.894875,"mean":12.925,"median":13,"bias":7.925000000000001,"maeMean":7.925000000000001,"maeMedian":8,"low":8,"high":19,"coverage":false,"width":11,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentPoisson":{"crps":2.0699500000000004,"mean":8.41,"median":8,"bias":3.41,"maeMean":3.41,"maeMedian":3,"low":4,"high":13,"coverage":true,"width":9,"pitLower":0.08,"pitUpper":0.155,"empiricalMass":0.075,"logScore":2.5902671654458267},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":2.391025000000001,"mean":9.205,"median":2,"bias":4.205,"maeMean":4.205,"maeMedian":3,"low":0,"high":42,"coverage":true,"width":42,"pitLower":0.575,"pitUpper":0.61,"empiricalMass":0.035,"logScore":3.3524072174927233}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.005,"1":0.02,"2":0.035,"3":0.065,"4":0.09,"5":0.08,"6":0.065,"7":0.09,"8":0.05,"9":0.075,"10":0.035,"11":0.05,"12":0.06,"13":0.035,"14":0.05,"15":0.005,"16":0.03,"17":0.025,"18":0.015,"19":0.01,"20":0.015,"21":0.03,"22":0.01,"23":0.005,"27":0.005,"28":0.005,"29":0.005,"31":0.005,"37":0.005,"40":0.005,"47":0.005,"51":0.005,"62":0.005,"80":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.02,"1":0.06,"2":0.07,"3":0.075,"4":0.06,"5":0.045,"6":0.09,"7":0.06,"8":0.075,"9":0.055,"10":0.06,"11":0.065,"12":0.02,"13":0.035,"14":0.02,"15":0.025,"16":0.04,"17":0.01,"18":0.02,"19":0.005,"20":0.01,"21":0.005,"23":0.01,"24":0.005,"25":0.005,"26":0.005,"27":0.005,"28":0.015,"30":0.005,"38":0.005,"40":0.005,"41":0.005,"46":0.005,"50":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.005,"1":0.015,"2":0.03,"3":0.055,"4":0.05,"5":0.065,"6":0.08,"7":0.08,"8":0.055,"9":0.06,"10":0.08,"11":0.04,"12":0.065,"13":0.05,"14":0.025,"15":0.015,"16":0.02,"17":0.045,"18":0.02,"19":0.025,"20":0.005,"21":0.025,"22":0.005,"23":0.01,"24":0.005,"25":0.005,"28":0.005,"30":0.01,"34":0.005,"36":0.005,"37":0.005,"38":0.005,"41":0.01,"44":0.015,"51":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"6":0.015,"7":0.02,"8":0.06,"9":0.085,"10":0.12,"11":0.095,"12":0.08,"13":0.12,"14":0.075,"15":0.1,"16":0.08,"17":0.04,"18":0.025,"19":0.05,"20":0.005,"21":0.015,"23":0.005,"24":0.005,"25":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"1":0.01,"2":0.01,"3":0.005,"4":0.055,"5":0.075,"6":0.095,"7":0.14,"8":0.155,"9":0.085,"10":0.16,"11":0.08,"12":0.055,"13":0.025,"14":0.025,"15":0.02,"20":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.33,"1":0.12,"2":0.065,"3":0.02,"4":0.04,"5":0.035,"6":0.035,"7":0.02,"8":0.02,"9":0.03,"10":0.01,"11":0.015,"12":0.035,"13":0.01,"14":0.01,"15":0.02,"16":0.005,"17":0.01,"18":0.02,"19":0.01,"20":0.005,"22":0.01,"24":0.005,"25":0.005,"26":0.005,"27":0.005,"28":0.015,"29":0.005,"30":0.015,"31":0.005,"35":0.01,"42":0.005,"43":0.005,"49":0.01,"56":0.005,"58":0.01,"66":0.005,"67":0.005,"77":0.005,"110":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1598140800000,"validUntil":1598745600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":3,"actual":3,"trainingCount":4485,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2020","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":1.27805,"mean":1.38,"median":1,"bias":-1.62,"maeMean":1.62,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.83,"pitUpper":0.915,"empiricalMass":0.085,"logScore":2.4651040224918206},"rollingETAS":{"crps":1.414575,"mean":1.255,"median":1,"bias":-1.745,"maeMean":1.745,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.845,"pitUpper":0.9,"empiricalMass":0.055,"logScore":2.900422093749666},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":1.1472,"mean":1.65,"median":1,"bias":-1.35,"maeMean":1.35,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":6,"coverage":true,"width":6,"pitLower":0.78,"pitUpper":0.87,"empiricalMass":0.09,"logScore":2.4079456086518722},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.7515000000000001,"mean":1.89,"median":2,"bias":-1.11,"maeMean":1.11,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.71,"pitUpper":0.865,"empiricalMass":0.155,"logScore":1.8643301620628905},"recentPoisson":{"crps":1.438325,"mean":1.065,"median":1,"bias":-1.935,"maeMean":1.935,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.92,"pitUpper":0.985,"empiricalMass":0.065,"logScore":2.7333680090865},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":2.100475,"mean":1.515,"median":0,"bias":-1.485,"maeMean":1.485,"maeMedian":3,"low":0,"high":8,"coverage":true,"width":8,"pitLower":0.86,"pitUpper":0.885,"empiricalMass":0.025,"logScore":3.6888794541139363}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.375,"1":0.285,"2":0.17,"3":0.085,"4":0.02,"5":0.04,"6":0.005,"7":0.01,"11":0.005,"13":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.455,"1":0.235,"2":0.155,"3":0.055,"4":0.03,"5":0.03,"6":0.01,"7":0.025,"8":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.345,"1":0.28,"2":0.155,"3":0.09,"4":0.06,"5":0.01,"6":0.015,"7":0.015,"8":0.01,"9":0.005,"10":0.005,"11":0.005,"15":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.155,"1":0.295,"2":0.26,"3":0.155,"4":0.09,"5":0.02,"6":0.025},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.34,"1":0.35,"2":0.23,"3":0.065,"4":0.015},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.775,"1":0.065,"2":0.02,"3":0.025,"4":0.025,"5":0.015,"6":0.01,"7":0.01,"8":0.005,"9":0.005,"14":0.005,"15":0.005,"18":0.005,"19":0.01,"20":0.005,"23":0.005,"27":0.005,"34":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1598140800000,"validUntil":1598745600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4485,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2020","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.024224999999999997,"mean":0.205,"median":0,"bias":0.205,"maeMean":0.205,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.85,"empiricalMass":0.85,"logScore":0.16251892949777494},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.026825000000000015,"mean":0.195,"median":0,"bias":0.195,"maeMean":0.195,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.84,"empiricalMass":0.84,"logScore":0.1743533871447778},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.027325000000000016,"mean":0.225,"median":0,"bias":0.225,"maeMean":0.225,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.84,"empiricalMass":0.84,"logScore":0.1743533871447778},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.046625,"mean":0.235,"median":0,"bias":0.235,"maeMean":0.235,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.785,"empiricalMass":0.785,"logScore":0.24207156119972859},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.02260000000000001,"mean":0.16,"median":0,"bias":0.16,"maeMean":0.16,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.85,"empiricalMass":0.85,"logScore":0.16251892949777494},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.008125000000000007,"mean":0.115,"median":0,"bias":0.115,"maeMean":0.115,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.915,"empiricalMass":0.915,"logScore":0.0888312137066157}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.85,"1":0.11,"2":0.03,"3":0.005,"4":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.84,"1":0.125,"2":0.035},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.84,"1":0.125,"2":0.015,"3":0.01,"4":0.01},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.785,"1":0.195,"2":0.02},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.85,"1":0.14,"2":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.915,"1":0.055,"2":0.03}}},{"issuedAt":1598140800000,"validUntil":1600732800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":2,"actual":31,"trainingCount":4485,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2020","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":10.402824999999998,"mean":52.435,"median":47,"bias":21.435000000000002,"maeMean":21.435000000000002,"maeMedian":16,"low":21,"high":97,"coverage":true,"width":76,"pitLower":0.155,"pitUpper":0.175,"empiricalMass":0.02,"logScore":3.912023005428146},"rollingETAS":{"crps":8.595600000000001,"mean":52.84,"median":43.5,"bias":21.840000000000003,"maeMean":21.840000000000003,"maeMedian":12.5,"low":18,"high":133,"coverage":true,"width":115,"pitLower":0.285,"pitUpper":0.29,"empiricalMass":0.005,"logScore":5.298317366548036},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":8.7412,"mean":50.3,"median":45.5,"bias":19.299999999999997,"maeMean":19.299999999999997,"maeMedian":14.5,"low":23,"high":92,"coverage":true,"width":69,"pitLower":0.165,"pitUpper":0.19,"empiricalMass":0.025,"logScore":3.6888794541139363},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":19.910700000000002,"mean":55.46,"median":55,"bias":24.46,"maeMean":24.46,"maeMedian":24,"low":40,"high":71,"coverage":false,"width":31,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentPoisson":{"crps":2.4995749999999997,"mean":35.285,"median":35,"bias":4.284999999999997,"maeMean":4.284999999999997,"maeMedian":4,"low":26,"high":45,"coverage":true,"width":19,"pitLower":0.175,"pitUpper":0.26,"empiricalMass":0.085,"logScore":2.4651040224918206},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":5.9347249999999985,"mean":33.165,"median":24.5,"bias":2.164999999999999,"maeMean":2.164999999999999,"maeMedian":6.5,"low":5,"high":89,"coverage":true,"width":84,"pitLower":0.585,"pitUpper":0.61,"empiricalMass":0.025,"logScore":3.6888794541139363}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"15":0.005,"16":0.005,"18":0.005,"19":0.01,"20":0.01,"21":0.025,"24":0.005,"25":0.01,"26":0.01,"27":0.02,"28":0.02,"29":0.02,"30":0.01,"31":0.02,"32":0.015,"33":0.015,"34":0.01,"35":0.03,"36":0.025,"37":0.025,"38":0.035,"39":0.03,"40":0.02,"41":0.02,"42":0.025,"43":0.005,"44":0.03,"45":0.01,"46":0.01,"47":0.025,"48":0.015,"49":0.015,"50":0.02,"51":0.02,"52":0.01,"53":0.01,"54":0.01,"55":0.015,"56":0.02,"57":0.025,"58":0.02,"59":0.035,"60":0.015,"61":0.02,"62":0.02,"63":0.005,"65":0.005,"66":0.01,"67":0.005,"68":0.015,"69":0.005,"71":0.005,"73":0.005,"74":0.01,"76":0.005,"77":0.005,"78":0.01,"79":0.02,"80":0.005,"81":0.01,"83":0.01,"85":0.005,"86":0.005,"87":0.005,"88":0.005,"89":0.005,"92":0.005,"94":0.01,"97":0.005,"102":0.005,"105":0.005,"110":0.005,"115":0.005,"127":0.005,"131":0.005,"132":0.005,"135":0.005,"142":0.005,"173":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"9":0.005,"11":0.005,"12":0.005,"13":0.005,"14":0.005,"15":0.005,"16":0.005,"17":0.005,"18":0.03,"19":0.025,"21":0.02,"22":0.03,"23":0.015,"24":0.02,"25":0.015,"26":0.03,"27":0.02,"28":0.03,"30":0.01,"31":0.005,"32":0.035,"33":0.015,"34":0.01,"35":0.025,"36":0.025,"37":0.005,"38":0.03,"39":0.005,"40":0.025,"41":0.025,"43":0.01,"44":0.04,"45":0.02,"46":0.03,"47":0.02,"49":0.01,"50":0.01,"51":0.015,"53":0.015,"54":0.005,"55":0.02,"56":0.01,"57":0.02,"58":0.01,"59":0.005,"60":0.015,"61":0.01,"62":0.005,"63":0.015,"64":0.005,"66":0.005,"67":0.005,"68":0.015,"69":0.005,"70":0.005,"72":0.005,"75":0.005,"76":0.01,"79":0.005,"81":0.005,"83":0.01,"85":0.005,"86":0.005,"87":0.005,"88":0.005,"90":0.005,"91":0.01,"105":0.005,"113":0.01,"114":0.005,"115":0.005,"118":0.01,"119":0.005,"126":0.01,"128":0.005,"133":0.005,"134":0.005,"147":0.005,"153":0.005,"154":0.005,"155":0.005,"159":0.005,"160":0.005,"166":0.005,"189":0.005,"262":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"14":0.005,"17":0.005,"19":0.01,"20":0.005,"21":0.01,"22":0.005,"23":0.02,"24":0.01,"25":0.015,"26":0.015,"27":0.01,"28":0.015,"29":0.01,"30":0.03,"31":0.025,"32":0.035,"33":0.025,"34":0.015,"35":0.03,"36":0.02,"37":0.02,"38":0.015,"39":0.02,"41":0.035,"42":0.045,"43":0.025,"44":0.005,"45":0.02,"46":0.035,"47":0.015,"48":0.025,"49":0.02,"50":0.02,"51":0.055,"52":0.01,"53":0.01,"54":0.015,"55":0.005,"56":0.025,"57":0.02,"58":0.03,"59":0.005,"60":0.01,"61":0.01,"62":0.005,"64":0.015,"65":0.015,"66":0.01,"68":0.005,"69":0.005,"70":0.01,"78":0.005,"80":0.005,"82":0.01,"83":0.005,"84":0.005,"85":0.015,"88":0.01,"89":0.015,"92":0.005,"96":0.005,"107":0.005,"109":0.005,"110":0.005,"139":0.005,"141":0.005,"153":0.005,"156":0.005,"157":0.005,"167":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"36":0.005,"38":0.02,"40":0.025,"41":0.01,"42":0.01,"43":0.005,"44":0.01,"45":0.01,"46":0.02,"47":0.02,"48":0.02,"49":0.035,"50":0.07,"51":0.06,"52":0.065,"53":0.055,"54":0.045,"55":0.055,"56":0.045,"57":0.03,"58":0.045,"59":0.035,"60":0.02,"61":0.05,"62":0.02,"63":0.075,"64":0.015,"65":0.01,"66":0.025,"67":0.015,"68":0.01,"69":0.005,"70":0.005,"71":0.025,"72":0.01,"73":0.01,"75":0.005,"76":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"20":0.005,"22":0.01,"23":0.01,"24":0.005,"25":0.015,"26":0.03,"27":0.02,"28":0.02,"29":0.015,"30":0.045,"31":0.085,"32":0.05,"33":0.05,"34":0.085,"35":0.09,"36":0.095,"37":0.035,"38":0.05,"39":0.075,"40":0.03,"41":0.02,"42":0.04,"43":0.035,"44":0.005,"45":0.04,"46":0.02,"47":0.005,"48":0.005,"49":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"1":0.005,"2":0.015,"3":0.005,"4":0.02,"5":0.01,"6":0.015,"7":0.025,"8":0.035,"9":0.02,"10":0.025,"11":0.03,"12":0.02,"13":0.02,"14":0.02,"15":0.01,"16":0.025,"17":0.025,"18":0.015,"19":0.03,"20":0.03,"21":0.035,"22":0.04,"23":0.02,"24":0.005,"25":0.015,"26":0.025,"27":0.015,"28":0.005,"29":0.015,"30":0.01,"31":0.025,"32":0.005,"33":0.02,"34":0.01,"35":0.02,"37":0.035,"38":0.015,"39":0.015,"40":0.005,"42":0.005,"43":0.005,"44":0.01,"45":0.015,"46":0.005,"48":0.02,"49":0.01,"50":0.01,"54":0.005,"56":0.01,"57":0.015,"58":0.01,"59":0.005,"61":0.01,"63":0.015,"66":0.005,"71":0.005,"72":0.01,"74":0.01,"75":0.005,"76":0.005,"77":0.005,"79":0.005,"81":0.005,"85":0.005,"89":0.01,"90":0.01,"106":0.005,"109":0.005,"125":0.005,"134":0.005,"138":0.005,"139":0.005,"162":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1598140800000,"validUntil":1600732800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":3,"actual":4,"trainingCount":4485,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2020","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":1.173925,"mean":6.485,"median":5,"bias":2.4850000000000003,"maeMean":2.4850000000000003,"maeMedian":1,"low":1,"high":16,"coverage":true,"width":15,"pitLower":0.24,"pitUpper":0.37,"empiricalMass":0.13,"logScore":2.0402208285265546},"rollingETAS":{"crps":1.2910749999999998,"mean":7.415,"median":5,"bias":3.415,"maeMean":3.415,"maeMedian":1,"low":1,"high":22,"coverage":true,"width":21,"pitLower":0.275,"pitUpper":0.395,"empiricalMass":0.12,"logScore":2.120263536200091},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.9149250000000002,"mean":6.095,"median":5,"bias":2.0949999999999998,"maeMean":2.0949999999999998,"maeMedian":1,"low":1,"high":15,"coverage":true,"width":14,"pitLower":0.305,"pitUpper":0.445,"empiricalMass":0.14,"logScore":1.9661128563728327},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":2.1826,"mean":7.63,"median":7,"bias":3.63,"maeMean":3.63,"maeMedian":3,"low":4,"high":13,"coverage":true,"width":9,"pitLower":0.045,"pitUpper":0.105,"empiricalMass":0.06,"logScore":2.8134107167600364},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.7622750000000003,"mean":5.335,"median":5,"bias":1.335,"maeMean":1.335,"maeMedian":1,"low":2,"high":9,"coverage":true,"width":7,"pitLower":0.235,"pitUpper":0.385,"empiricalMass":0.15,"logScore":1.8971199848858813},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":1.5235750000000001,"mean":5.445,"median":2,"bias":1.4450000000000003,"maeMean":1.4450000000000003,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":21,"coverage":true,"width":21,"pitLower":0.58,"pitUpper":0.635,"empiricalMass":0.055,"logScore":2.900422093749666}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.035,"1":0.075,"2":0.055,"3":0.075,"4":0.13,"5":0.135,"6":0.105,"7":0.07,"8":0.08,"9":0.03,"10":0.045,"11":0.025,"12":0.025,"13":0.03,"14":0.02,"15":0.01,"16":0.015,"17":0.015,"19":0.015,"21":0.005,"24":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.03,"1":0.045,"2":0.09,"3":0.11,"4":0.12,"5":0.125,"6":0.09,"7":0.07,"8":0.055,"9":0.04,"10":0.02,"11":0.025,"12":0.015,"13":0.02,"15":0.02,"16":0.02,"17":0.01,"18":0.005,"19":0.01,"20":0.005,"21":0.005,"22":0.025,"23":0.01,"24":0.005,"25":0.005,"26":0.005,"27":0.005,"28":0.01,"33":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.025,"1":0.04,"2":0.085,"3":0.155,"4":0.14,"5":0.1,"6":0.12,"7":0.09,"8":0.065,"9":0.02,"10":0.025,"11":0.035,"12":0.025,"13":0.005,"14":0.01,"15":0.02,"17":0.005,"18":0.01,"20":0.01,"24":0.005,"26":0.005,"31":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"1":0.01,"2":0.01,"3":0.025,"4":0.06,"5":0.125,"6":0.175,"7":0.14,"8":0.105,"9":0.115,"10":0.065,"11":0.06,"12":0.04,"13":0.035,"14":0.02,"15":0.01,"16":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.005,"1":0.015,"2":0.08,"3":0.135,"4":0.15,"5":0.195,"6":0.115,"7":0.115,"8":0.085,"9":0.065,"10":0.025,"11":0.01,"12":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.275,"1":0.13,"2":0.13,"3":0.045,"4":0.055,"5":0.04,"6":0.025,"7":0.03,"8":0.025,"9":0.03,"10":0.02,"11":0.035,"12":0.015,"13":0.02,"14":0.01,"15":0.01,"16":0.025,"17":0.005,"18":0.015,"20":0.005,"21":0.01,"22":0.01,"23":0.005,"24":0.01,"26":0.005,"27":0.005,"36":0.005,"54":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1598140800000,"validUntil":1600732800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":4,"actual":1,"trainingCount":4485,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2020","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.3380500000000001,"mean":0.86,"median":0,"bias":-0.14,"maeMean":0.14,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.53,"pitUpper":0.785,"empiricalMass":0.255,"logScore":1.3664917338237108},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.3238000000000001,"mean":1.08,"median":1,"bias":0.08000000000000007,"maeMean":0.08000000000000007,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.485,"pitUpper":0.76,"empiricalMass":0.275,"logScore":1.2909841813155656},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.34357499999999996,"mean":0.685,"median":0,"bias":-0.31499999999999995,"maeMean":0.31499999999999995,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.565,"pitUpper":0.86,"empiricalMass":0.295,"logScore":1.2207799226423173},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.21065000000000006,"mean":0.86,"median":1,"bias":-0.14,"maeMean":0.14,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.405,"pitUpper":0.79,"empiricalMass":0.385,"logScore":0.9545119446943529},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.466125,"mean":0.395,"median":0,"bias":-0.605,"maeMean":0.605,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.68,"pitUpper":0.94,"empiricalMass":0.26,"logScore":1.3470736479666092},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.455875,"mean":0.525,"median":0,"bias":-0.475,"maeMean":0.475,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.665,"pitUpper":0.895,"empiricalMass":0.23,"logScore":1.4696759700589417}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.53,"1":0.255,"2":0.13,"3":0.03,"4":0.03,"5":0.02,"7":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.485,"1":0.275,"2":0.1,"3":0.055,"4":0.03,"5":0.025,"6":0.015,"7":0.015},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.565,"1":0.295,"2":0.08,"3":0.03,"4":0.015,"5":0.01,"6":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.405,"1":0.385,"2":0.16,"3":0.045,"4":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.68,"1":0.26,"2":0.05,"3":0.005,"4":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.665,"1":0.23,"2":0.06,"3":0.025,"4":0.01,"6":0.01}}},{"issuedAt":1600732800000,"validUntil":1600819200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":2,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4516,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2020","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.2990499999999999,"mean":0.94,"median":0,"bias":0.94,"maeMean":0.94,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.53,"empiricalMass":0.53,"logScore":0.6348782724359695},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.30100000000000005,"mean":1.03,"median":0,"bias":1.03,"maeMean":1.03,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.525,"empiricalMass":0.525,"logScore":0.6443570163905132},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.46465,"mean":1.46,"median":1,"bias":1.46,"maeMean":1.46,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.41,"empiricalMass":0.41,"logScore":0.8915981192837836},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":1.2125499999999998,"mean":1.88,"median":2,"bias":1.88,"maeMean":1.88,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.115,"empiricalMass":0.115,"logScore":2.162823150618887},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.6523250000000002,"mean":1.245,"median":1,"bias":1.245,"maeMean":1.245,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.285,"empiricalMass":0.285,"logScore":1.2552660987134867},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.10965000000000003,"mean":1.02,"median":0,"bias":1.02,"maeMean":1.02,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.77,"empiricalMass":0.77,"logScore":0.2613647641344075}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.53,"1":0.225,"2":0.135,"3":0.04,"4":0.04,"5":0.015,"6":0.015},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.525,"1":0.24,"2":0.115,"3":0.07,"4":0.02,"6":0.005,"7":0.005,"8":0.005,"9":0.005,"10":0.005,"14":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.41,"1":0.3,"2":0.15,"3":0.07,"4":0.02,"5":0.01,"6":0.015,"9":0.01,"10":0.005,"26":0.005,"32":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.115,"1":0.295,"2":0.325,"3":0.165,"4":0.07,"5":0.02,"6":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.285,"1":0.36,"2":0.24,"3":0.08,"4":0.01,"5":0.025},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.77,"1":0.065,"2":0.055,"3":0.04,"4":0.015,"5":0.015,"6":0.005,"8":0.005,"11":0.005,"12":0.005,"15":0.01,"23":0.005,"28":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1600732800000,"validUntil":1600819200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":3,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4516,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2020","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.0068000000000000005,"mean":0.1,"median":0,"bias":0.1,"maeMean":0.1,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.92,"empiricalMass":0.92,"logScore":0.08338160893905101},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.014824999999999977,"mean":0.145,"median":0,"bias":0.145,"maeMean":0.145,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.88,"empiricalMass":0.88,"logScore":0.12783337150988489},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.016650000000000026,"mean":0.17,"median":0,"bias":0.17,"maeMean":0.17,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.875,"empiricalMass":0.875,"logScore":0.13353139262452263},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.04450000000000001,"mean":0.23,"median":0,"bias":0.23,"maeMean":0.23,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.79,"empiricalMass":0.79,"logScore":0.23572233352106983},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.027324999999999988,"mean":0.175,"median":0,"bias":0.175,"maeMean":0.175,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.835,"empiricalMass":0.835,"logScore":0.18032355413128162},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.010075,"mean":0.195,"median":0,"bias":0.195,"maeMean":0.195,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.92,"empiricalMass":0.92,"logScore":0.08338160893905101}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.92,"1":0.06,"2":0.02},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.88,"1":0.1,"2":0.015,"3":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.875,"1":0.095,"2":0.02,"3":0.005,"4":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.79,"1":0.19,"2":0.02},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.835,"1":0.155,"2":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.92,"1":0.035,"2":0.02,"4":0.005,"5":0.02}}},{"issuedAt":1600732800000,"validUntil":1600819200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4516,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2020","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.0000999999999999994,"mean":0.01,"median":0,"bias":0.01,"maeMean":0.01,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.99,"empiricalMass":0.99,"logScore":0.01005033585350145},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.00040000000000000105,"mean":0.02,"median":0,"bias":0.02,"maeMean":0.02,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.98,"empiricalMass":0.98,"logScore":0.020202707317519466},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.000449999999999999,"mean":0.03,"median":0,"bias":0.03,"maeMean":0.03,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.98,"empiricalMass":0.98,"logScore":0.020202707317519466},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.0012250000000000039,"mean":0.035,"median":0,"bias":0.035,"maeMean":0.035,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.965,"empiricalMass":0.965,"logScore":0.03562717764315116},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.0006250000000000006,"mean":0.025,"median":0,"bias":0.025,"maeMean":0.025,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.975,"empiricalMass":0.975,"logScore":0.025317807984289897},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.0002500000000000002,"mean":0.02,"median":0,"bias":0.02,"maeMean":0.02,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.985,"empiricalMass":0.985,"logScore":0.015113637810048184}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.99,"1":0.01},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.98,"1":0.02},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.98,"1":0.015,"3":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.965,"1":0.035},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.975,"1":0.025},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.985,"1":0.01,"2":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1600732800000,"validUntil":1601337600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":2,"actual":5,"trainingCount":4516,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2020","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":2.5716,"mean":10.96,"median":9.5,"bias":5.960000000000001,"maeMean":5.960000000000001,"maeMedian":4.5,"low":2,"high":25,"coverage":true,"width":23,"pitLower":0.175,"pitUpper":0.25,"empiricalMass":0.075,"logScore":2.5902671654458267},"rollingETAS":{"crps":1.812525,"mean":10.575,"median":7,"bias":5.574999999999999,"maeMean":5.574999999999999,"maeMedian":2,"low":2,"high":29,"coverage":true,"width":27,"pitLower":0.245,"pitUpper":0.36,"empiricalMass":0.115,"logScore":2.162823150618887},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":2.1504499999999998,"mean":10.01,"median":8,"bias":5.01,"maeMean":5.01,"maeMedian":3,"low":2,"high":20,"coverage":true,"width":18,"pitLower":0.185,"pitUpper":0.255,"empiricalMass":0.07,"logScore":2.659260036932778},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":5.290799999999999,"mean":12.54,"median":12,"bias":7.539999999999999,"maeMean":7.539999999999999,"maeMedian":7,"low":6,"high":19,"coverage":false,"width":13,"pitLower":0.01,"pitUpper":0.02,"empiricalMass":0.01,"logScore":4.605170185988091},"recentPoisson":{"crps":2.05485,"mean":8.35,"median":8,"bias":3.3499999999999996,"maeMean":3.3499999999999996,"maeMedian":3,"low":3,"high":13,"coverage":true,"width":10,"pitLower":0.11,"pitUpper":0.17,"empiricalMass":0.06,"logScore":2.8134107167600364},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":2.7060999999999993,"mean":10.5,"median":3,"bias":5.5,"maeMean":5.5,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":43,"coverage":true,"width":43,"pitLower":0.57,"pitUpper":0.6,"empiricalMass":0.03,"logScore":3.506557897319982}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"1":0.015,"2":0.05,"3":0.07,"4":0.04,"5":0.075,"6":0.075,"7":0.065,"8":0.055,"9":0.055,"10":0.075,"11":0.095,"12":0.07,"13":0.035,"14":0.05,"15":0.02,"16":0.01,"17":0.015,"18":0.015,"19":0.015,"20":0.01,"21":0.015,"22":0.005,"24":0.005,"25":0.02,"29":0.005,"31":0.01,"34":0.005,"35":0.005,"36":0.005,"42":0.005,"55":0.005,"98":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.01,"1":0.02,"2":0.075,"3":0.07,"4":0.07,"5":0.115,"6":0.065,"7":0.09,"8":0.045,"9":0.06,"10":0.08,"11":0.075,"12":0.025,"13":0.025,"14":0.03,"15":0.01,"17":0.015,"18":0.005,"19":0.015,"20":0.01,"21":0.005,"23":0.005,"27":0.005,"28":0.01,"29":0.015,"30":0.005,"34":0.005,"37":0.005,"42":0.005,"45":0.005,"46":0.005,"50":0.005,"58":0.005,"93":0.005,"105":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.005,"1":0.025,"2":0.03,"3":0.055,"4":0.07,"5":0.07,"6":0.095,"7":0.07,"8":0.12,"9":0.055,"10":0.07,"11":0.025,"12":0.08,"13":0.025,"14":0.025,"15":0.015,"16":0.045,"17":0.035,"18":0.025,"19":0.005,"20":0.005,"21":0.005,"22":0.01,"28":0.005,"29":0.005,"31":0.005,"32":0.005,"37":0.005,"48":0.005,"94":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"4":0.01,"5":0.01,"6":0.04,"7":0.035,"8":0.07,"9":0.075,"10":0.09,"11":0.115,"12":0.075,"13":0.09,"14":0.09,"15":0.065,"16":0.04,"17":0.05,"18":0.065,"19":0.035,"20":0.02,"21":0.015,"22":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"2":0.015,"3":0.055,"4":0.04,"5":0.06,"6":0.085,"7":0.145,"8":0.145,"9":0.095,"10":0.105,"11":0.11,"12":0.05,"13":0.055,"14":0.02,"15":0.02},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.305,"1":0.105,"2":0.07,"3":0.06,"4":0.03,"5":0.03,"6":0.02,"7":0.02,"8":0.02,"9":0.01,"10":0.035,"11":0.01,"12":0.015,"13":0.01,"14":0.015,"15":0.01,"16":0.01,"17":0.01,"18":0.005,"19":0.015,"20":0.01,"21":0.005,"22":0.005,"23":0.01,"24":0.01,"25":0.015,"26":0.005,"27":0.015,"28":0.01,"31":0.015,"32":0.005,"34":0.01,"35":0.005,"37":0.005,"40":0.01,"41":0.005,"43":0.005,"45":0.005,"48":0.005,"52":0.005,"56":0.005,"61":0.005,"62":0.005,"68":0.01,"91":0.005,"97":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1600732800000,"validUntil":1601337600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":3,"actual":2,"trainingCount":4516,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2020","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.6155250000000001,"mean":1.375,"median":1,"bias":-0.625,"maeMean":0.625,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.65,"pitUpper":0.82,"empiricalMass":0.17,"logScore":1.7719568419318752},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.7035250000000002,"mean":1.515,"median":1,"bias":-0.4850000000000001,"maeMean":0.4850000000000001,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":6,"coverage":true,"width":6,"pitLower":0.695,"pitUpper":0.835,"empiricalMass":0.14,"logScore":1.9661128563728327},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.7531249999999999,"mean":1.225,"median":1,"bias":-0.7749999999999999,"maeMean":0.7749999999999999,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.745,"pitUpper":0.86,"empiricalMass":0.115,"logScore":2.162823150618887},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.27737500000000004,"mean":1.715,"median":2,"bias":-0.2849999999999999,"maeMean":0.2849999999999999,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.435,"pitUpper":0.765,"empiricalMass":0.33,"logScore":1.1086626245216111},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.550075,"mean":1.205,"median":1,"bias":-0.7949999999999999,"maeMean":0.7949999999999999,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.665,"pitUpper":0.87,"empiricalMass":0.205,"logScore":1.584745299843729},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":1.4218999999999997,"mean":1.51,"median":0,"bias":-0.49,"maeMean":0.49,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":11,"coverage":true,"width":11,"pitLower":0.835,"pitUpper":0.86,"empiricalMass":0.025,"logScore":3.6888794541139363}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.385,"1":0.265,"2":0.17,"3":0.1,"4":0.02,"5":0.025,"6":0.005,"7":0.015,"8":0.01,"10":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.405,"1":0.29,"2":0.14,"3":0.05,"4":0.03,"5":0.02,"6":0.025,"7":0.005,"8":0.005,"9":0.01,"10":0.01,"13":0.005,"19":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.41,"1":0.335,"2":0.115,"3":0.06,"4":0.03,"5":0.02,"6":0.015,"7":0.005,"8":0.005,"19":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.17,"1":0.265,"2":0.33,"3":0.175,"4":0.04,"5":0.015,"6":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.3,"1":0.365,"2":0.205,"3":0.1,"4":0.025,"6":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.8,"1":0.035,"2":0.025,"3":0.02,"4":0.01,"5":0.015,"6":0.015,"7":0.015,"8":0.005,"11":0.015,"12":0.01,"13":0.005,"14":0.005,"16":0.005,"19":0.005,"23":0.005,"28":0.005,"33":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1600732800000,"validUntil":1601337600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":4,"actual":1,"trainingCount":4516,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2020","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.757175,"mean":0.155,"median":0,"bias":-0.845,"maeMean":0.845,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0.87,"pitUpper":0.985,"empiricalMass":0.115,"logScore":2.162823150618887},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.77755,"mean":0.21,"median":0,"bias":-0.79,"maeMean":0.79,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0.88,"pitUpper":0.955,"empiricalMass":0.075,"logScore":2.5902671654458267},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.792425,"mean":0.145,"median":0,"bias":-0.855,"maeMean":0.855,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0.89,"pitUpper":0.99,"empiricalMass":0.1,"logScore":2.3025850929940455},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.6893,"mean":0.19,"median":0,"bias":-0.81,"maeMean":0.81,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0.83,"pitUpper":0.98,"empiricalMass":0.15,"logScore":1.8971199848858813},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.7745,"mean":0.13,"median":0,"bias":-0.87,"maeMean":0.87,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0.88,"pitUpper":0.99,"empiricalMass":0.11,"logScore":2.2072749131897207},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.7578750000000001,"mean":0.185,"median":0,"bias":-0.815,"maeMean":0.815,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0.87,"pitUpper":0.975,"empiricalMass":0.105,"logScore":2.2537949288246137}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.87,"1":0.115,"2":0.01,"4":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.88,"1":0.075,"2":0.015,"3":0.015,"4":0.015},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.89,"1":0.1,"4":0.005,"5":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.83,"1":0.15,"2":0.02},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.88,"1":0.11,"2":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.87,"1":0.105,"2":0.01,"3":0.005,"4":0.005,"5":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1600732800000,"validUntil":1603324800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":2,"actual":19,"trainingCount":4516,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2020","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":20.80435,"mean":52.76,"median":46.5,"bias":33.76,"maeMean":33.76,"maeMedian":27.5,"low":22,"high":99,"coverage":false,"width":77,"pitLower":0.02,"pitUpper":0.025,"empiricalMass":0.005,"logScore":5.298317366548036},"rollingETAS":{"crps":16.0174,"mean":50.36,"median":39,"bias":31.36,"maeMean":31.36,"maeMedian":20,"low":20,"high":109,"coverage":false,"width":89,"pitLower":0.025,"pitUpper":0.04,"empiricalMass":0.015,"logScore":4.199705077879927},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":23.198525,"mean":56.555,"median":47,"bias":37.555,"maeMean":37.555,"maeMedian":28,"low":24,"high":115,"coverage":false,"width":91,"pitLower":0.01,"pitUpper":0.02,"empiricalMass":0.01,"logScore":4.605170185988091},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":32.513225,"mean":55.725,"median":56,"bias":36.725,"maeMean":36.725,"maeMedian":37,"low":43,"high":67,"coverage":false,"width":24,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentPoisson":{"crps":14.225750000000001,"mean":36.14,"median":36,"bias":17.14,"maeMean":17.14,"maeMedian":17,"low":27,"high":45,"coverage":false,"width":18,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":5.3367499999999986,"mean":29.39,"median":27.5,"bias":10.39,"maeMean":10.39,"maeMedian":8.5,"low":8,"high":54,"coverage":true,"width":46,"pitLower":0.245,"pitUpper":0.29,"empiricalMass":0.045,"logScore":3.101092789211817}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"15":0.005,"16":0.005,"17":0.005,"18":0.005,"19":0.005,"20":0.005,"21":0.01,"22":0.01,"24":0.005,"25":0.005,"26":0.02,"27":0.005,"28":0.015,"29":0.025,"30":0.005,"31":0.015,"32":0.025,"33":0.02,"34":0.01,"35":0.02,"36":0.015,"37":0.025,"38":0.025,"39":0.025,"40":0.045,"41":0.025,"42":0.015,"44":0.02,"45":0.05,"46":0.035,"47":0.035,"48":0.03,"49":0.03,"50":0.015,"51":0.005,"52":0.01,"53":0.015,"54":0.01,"55":0.025,"56":0.01,"58":0.03,"59":0.01,"60":0.02,"61":0.01,"62":0.03,"63":0.005,"64":0.02,"66":0.015,"69":0.015,"71":0.005,"72":0.005,"75":0.005,"76":0.005,"77":0.005,"78":0.005,"80":0.01,"81":0.005,"82":0.005,"83":0.005,"84":0.005,"86":0.005,"87":0.01,"88":0.005,"90":0.005,"92":0.005,"93":0.005,"94":0.005,"95":0.005,"99":0.005,"109":0.005,"111":0.005,"115":0.005,"131":0.005,"132":0.005,"136":0.005,"141":0.005,"145":0.005,"150":0.005,"198":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"15":0.005,"16":0.01,"17":0.005,"18":0.005,"19":0.015,"20":0.02,"21":0.01,"22":0.005,"23":0.02,"24":0.015,"25":0.02,"26":0.01,"27":0.025,"28":0.03,"29":0.03,"30":0.03,"31":0.025,"32":0.015,"33":0.045,"34":0.03,"35":0.035,"36":0.01,"37":0.02,"38":0.04,"39":0.03,"40":0.015,"41":0.02,"43":0.005,"44":0.045,"45":0.015,"46":0.005,"47":0.02,"48":0.02,"50":0.005,"51":0.015,"52":0.01,"53":0.01,"54":0.005,"55":0.02,"56":0.01,"57":0.01,"58":0.005,"60":0.01,"61":0.015,"62":0.02,"63":0.01,"65":0.005,"66":0.01,"67":0.01,"69":0.005,"70":0.01,"72":0.005,"73":0.01,"75":0.005,"76":0.005,"77":0.01,"78":0.005,"79":0.005,"80":0.005,"82":0.005,"83":0.005,"84":0.005,"87":0.005,"88":0.005,"90":0.005,"92":0.005,"95":0.005,"97":0.005,"99":0.005,"104":0.005,"109":0.01,"116":0.005,"117":0.005,"122":0.005,"128":0.005,"139":0.005,"142":0.005,"173":0.01,"247":0.005,"253":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"14":0.005,"17":0.005,"19":0.01,"20":0.01,"21":0.005,"22":0.005,"24":0.01,"25":0.015,"26":0.01,"28":0.025,"29":0.005,"30":0.01,"31":0.025,"32":0.015,"33":0.005,"34":0.01,"35":0.02,"36":0.015,"37":0.01,"38":0.03,"39":0.02,"40":0.03,"41":0.03,"42":0.045,"43":0.02,"44":0.01,"45":0.02,"46":0.035,"47":0.05,"48":0.01,"49":0.01,"50":0.025,"51":0.015,"52":0.005,"53":0.005,"54":0.005,"55":0.01,"56":0.01,"57":0.005,"58":0.01,"59":0.005,"60":0.015,"61":0.015,"62":0.02,"63":0.015,"64":0.01,"65":0.01,"66":0.01,"67":0.015,"68":0.015,"70":0.005,"71":0.015,"72":0.01,"73":0.005,"74":0.025,"75":0.005,"76":0.005,"77":0.015,"79":0.015,"80":0.01,"81":0.005,"84":0.01,"85":0.005,"87":0.02,"91":0.005,"94":0.01,"95":0.005,"96":0.01,"97":0.005,"98":0.005,"101":0.005,"108":0.005,"115":0.015,"119":0.005,"121":0.005,"125":0.005,"134":0.01,"148":0.005,"172":0.005,"197":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"39":0.005,"40":0.01,"41":0.005,"42":0.005,"43":0.025,"44":0.01,"45":0.015,"46":0.035,"47":0.035,"48":0.03,"49":0.045,"50":0.055,"51":0.055,"52":0.04,"53":0.04,"54":0.035,"55":0.04,"56":0.045,"57":0.05,"58":0.03,"59":0.05,"60":0.075,"61":0.035,"62":0.02,"63":0.045,"64":0.04,"65":0.03,"66":0.015,"67":0.03,"68":0.015,"69":0.01,"70":0.01,"71":0.005,"73":0.005,"74":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"21":0.005,"23":0.005,"25":0.01,"26":0.01,"27":0.02,"28":0.02,"29":0.005,"30":0.05,"31":0.05,"32":0.06,"33":0.07,"34":0.08,"35":0.05,"36":0.135,"37":0.06,"38":0.08,"39":0.055,"40":0.06,"41":0.025,"42":0.02,"43":0.04,"44":0.01,"45":0.035,"46":0.02,"47":0.005,"49":0.01,"50":0.005,"51":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"3":0.005,"5":0.005,"6":0.01,"7":0.005,"8":0.025,"9":0.015,"10":0.005,"11":0.025,"12":0.02,"13":0.02,"14":0.015,"15":0.015,"16":0.025,"17":0.04,"18":0.015,"19":0.045,"20":0.01,"21":0.05,"22":0.01,"23":0.005,"24":0.02,"25":0.04,"26":0.03,"27":0.045,"28":0.035,"29":0.035,"30":0.01,"31":0.03,"32":0.035,"33":0.02,"34":0.02,"35":0.03,"36":0.02,"37":0.005,"38":0.035,"39":0.015,"40":0.025,"41":0.03,"42":0.01,"44":0.005,"45":0.015,"46":0.01,"47":0.02,"48":0.01,"49":0.01,"51":0.005,"52":0.01,"53":0.005,"54":0.005,"60":0.01,"61":0.005,"65":0.005,"69":0.005,"74":0.005,"78":0.005,"80":0.005,"82":0.005,"94":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1600732800000,"validUntil":1603324800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":3,"actual":3,"trainingCount":4516,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2020","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":1.4344999999999999,"mean":6.22,"median":5,"bias":3.2199999999999998,"maeMean":3.2199999999999998,"maeMedian":2,"low":1,"high":16,"coverage":true,"width":15,"pitLower":0.21,"pitUpper":0.325,"empiricalMass":0.115,"logScore":2.162823150618887},"rollingETAS":{"crps":1.7044249999999996,"mean":7.015,"median":5,"bias":4.015,"maeMean":4.015,"maeMedian":2,"low":1,"high":17,"coverage":true,"width":16,"pitLower":0.185,"pitUpper":0.285,"empiricalMass":0.1,"logScore":2.3025850929940455},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":1.929275,"mean":7.165,"median":6,"bias":4.165,"maeMean":4.165,"maeMedian":3,"low":1,"high":17,"coverage":true,"width":16,"pitLower":0.135,"pitUpper":0.255,"empiricalMass":0.12,"logScore":2.120263536200091},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":3.045675,"mean":7.505,"median":7,"bias":4.505,"maeMean":4.505,"maeMedian":4,"low":3,"high":12,"coverage":true,"width":9,"pitLower":0.025,"pitUpper":0.06,"empiricalMass":0.035,"logScore":3.3524072174927233},"recentPoisson":{"crps":1.1826999999999999,"mean":5.11,"median":5,"bias":2.1100000000000003,"maeMean":2.1100000000000003,"maeMedian":2,"low":2,"high":8,"coverage":true,"width":6,"pitLower":0.1,"pitUpper":0.215,"empiricalMass":0.115,"logScore":2.162823150618887},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.7282499999999998,"mean":3.19,"median":2,"bias":0.18999999999999995,"maeMean":0.18999999999999995,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":9,"coverage":true,"width":9,"pitLower":0.555,"pitUpper":0.645,"empiricalMass":0.09,"logScore":2.4079456086518722}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.045,"1":0.05,"2":0.115,"3":0.115,"4":0.085,"5":0.12,"6":0.11,"7":0.075,"8":0.045,"9":0.075,"10":0.035,"11":0.015,"12":0.025,"13":0.015,"14":0.005,"15":0.01,"16":0.015,"17":0.005,"18":0.01,"19":0.005,"21":0.01,"24":0.005,"26":0.005,"29":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.01,"1":0.045,"2":0.13,"3":0.1,"4":0.115,"5":0.105,"6":0.07,"7":0.075,"8":0.065,"9":0.05,"10":0.05,"11":0.035,"12":0.015,"13":0.03,"14":0.025,"15":0.01,"16":0.015,"17":0.005,"18":0.005,"19":0.01,"20":0.005,"24":0.01,"25":0.005,"27":0.005,"34":0.005,"36":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.015,"1":0.08,"2":0.04,"3":0.12,"4":0.085,"5":0.095,"6":0.09,"7":0.13,"8":0.07,"9":0.065,"10":0.03,"11":0.02,"12":0.01,"13":0.025,"14":0.02,"15":0.015,"16":0.025,"17":0.015,"18":0.005,"19":0.015,"21":0.005,"22":0.005,"23":0.005,"26":0.01,"29":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"1":0.005,"2":0.02,"3":0.035,"4":0.065,"5":0.105,"6":0.155,"7":0.15,"8":0.105,"9":0.135,"10":0.085,"11":0.055,"12":0.05,"13":0.025,"14":0.005,"17":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.005,"1":0.025,"2":0.07,"3":0.115,"4":0.235,"5":0.15,"6":0.13,"7":0.14,"8":0.09,"9":0.01,"10":0.005,"11":0.015,"12":0.005,"13":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.15,"1":0.22,"2":0.185,"3":0.09,"4":0.11,"5":0.045,"6":0.06,"7":0.06,"8":0.015,"9":0.02,"10":0.015,"11":0.01,"13":0.005,"16":0.005,"17":0.005,"19":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1600732800000,"validUntil":1603324800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":4,"actual":1,"trainingCount":4516,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2020","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.3718,"mean":0.78,"median":0,"bias":-0.21999999999999997,"maeMean":0.21999999999999997,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.565,"pitUpper":0.785,"empiricalMass":0.22,"logScore":1.5141277326297755},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.360225,"mean":0.885,"median":0,"bias":-0.11499999999999999,"maeMean":0.11499999999999999,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.54,"pitUpper":0.76,"empiricalMass":0.22,"logScore":1.5141277326297755},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.321825,"mean":1.045,"median":1,"bias":0.04499999999999993,"maeMean":0.04499999999999993,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.475,"pitUpper":0.72,"empiricalMass":0.245,"logScore":1.40649706843741},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.22214999999999996,"mean":0.87,"median":1,"bias":-0.13,"maeMean":0.13,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.415,"pitUpper":0.785,"empiricalMass":0.37,"logScore":0.9942522733438669},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.35302500000000003,"mean":0.485,"median":0,"bias":-0.515,"maeMean":0.515,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.59,"pitUpper":0.93,"empiricalMass":0.34,"logScore":1.0788096613719298},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.55925,"mean":0.32,"median":0,"bias":-0.6799999999999999,"maeMean":0.6799999999999999,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.745,"pitUpper":0.935,"empiricalMass":0.19,"logScore":1.6607312068216509}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.565,"1":0.22,"2":0.14,"3":0.055,"4":0.005,"5":0.01,"9":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.54,"1":0.22,"2":0.15,"3":0.045,"4":0.025,"6":0.01,"7":0.01},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.475,"1":0.245,"2":0.17,"3":0.05,"4":0.02,"5":0.02,"6":0.01,"7":0.01},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.415,"1":0.37,"2":0.155,"3":0.05,"4":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.59,"1":0.34,"2":0.065,"3":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.745,"1":0.19,"2":0.065}}},{"issuedAt":1603324800000,"validUntil":1603411200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":2,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4535,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2020","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.39144999999999996,"mean":1.18,"median":1,"bias":1.18,"maeMean":1.18,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.455,"empiricalMass":0.455,"logScore":0.7874578600311866},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.3437000000000001,"mean":1.34,"median":1,"bias":1.34,"maeMean":1.34,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.495,"empiricalMass":0.495,"logScore":0.7031975164134467},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.4341750000000001,"mean":1.195,"median":1,"bias":1.195,"maeMean":1.195,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.43,"empiricalMass":0.43,"logScore":0.843970070294529},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":1.23695,"mean":1.99,"median":2,"bias":1.99,"maeMean":1.99,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.135,"empiricalMass":0.135,"logScore":2.0024805005437076},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.44325000000000003,"mean":0.9,"median":1,"bias":0.9,"maeMean":0.9,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.37,"empiricalMass":0.37,"logScore":0.9942522733438669},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.3439,"mean":0.9,"median":1,"bias":0.9,"maeMean":0.9,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.475,"empiricalMass":0.475,"logScore":0.7444404749474959}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.455,"1":0.285,"2":0.135,"3":0.05,"4":0.025,"5":0.01,"6":0.015,"7":0.005,"8":0.005,"9":0.005,"11":0.005,"12":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.495,"1":0.255,"2":0.14,"3":0.04,"4":0.02,"5":0.015,"6":0.01,"8":0.005,"16":0.005,"18":0.005,"21":0.005,"31":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.43,"1":0.29,"2":0.135,"3":0.065,"4":0.035,"5":0.015,"6":0.015,"8":0.01,"11":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.135,"1":0.275,"2":0.25,"3":0.185,"4":0.125,"5":0.02,"6":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.37,"1":0.42,"2":0.165,"3":0.03,"4":0.015},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.475,"1":0.28,"2":0.16,"3":0.055,"4":0.02,"5":0.005,"6":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1603324800000,"validUntil":1603411200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":3,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4535,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2020","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.012525000000000008,"mean":0.165,"median":0,"bias":0.165,"maeMean":0.165,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.895,"empiricalMass":0.895,"logScore":0.11093156070728166},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.019024999999999986,"mean":0.215,"median":0,"bias":0.215,"maeMean":0.215,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.87,"empiricalMass":0.87,"logScore":0.13926206733350766},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.014824999999999977,"mean":0.145,"median":0,"bias":0.145,"maeMean":0.145,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.88,"empiricalMass":0.88,"logScore":0.12783337150988489},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.04292499999999999,"mean":0.235,"median":0,"bias":0.235,"maeMean":0.235,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.795,"empiricalMass":0.795,"logScore":0.2294131643278051},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.008099999999999996,"mean":0.09,"median":0,"bias":0.09,"maeMean":0.09,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.91,"empiricalMass":0.91,"logScore":0.09431067947124129},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.007324999999999998,"mean":0.095,"median":0,"bias":0.095,"maeMean":0.095,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.915,"empiricalMass":0.915,"logScore":0.0888312137066157}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.895,"1":0.07,"2":0.02,"3":0.01,"5":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.87,"1":0.095,"2":0.01,"3":0.01,"4":0.01,"6":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.88,"1":0.1,"2":0.015,"3":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.795,"1":0.175,"2":0.03},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.91,"1":0.09},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.915,"1":0.075,"2":0.01}}},{"issuedAt":1603324800000,"validUntil":1603411200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4535,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2020","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.00040000000000000105,"mean":0.02,"median":0,"bias":0.02,"maeMean":0.02,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.98,"empiricalMass":0.98,"logScore":0.020202707317519466},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.0010500000000000023,"mean":0.05,"median":0,"bias":0.05,"maeMean":0.05,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.975,"empiricalMass":0.975,"logScore":0.025317807984289897},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.00032500000000000237,"mean":0.025,"median":0,"bias":0.025,"maeMean":0.025,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.985,"empiricalMass":0.985,"logScore":0.015113637810048184},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.0016000000000000042,"mean":0.04,"median":0,"bias":0.04,"maeMean":0.04,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.96,"empiricalMass":0.96,"logScore":0.040821994520255166},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.0002249999999999995,"mean":0.015,"median":0,"bias":0.015,"maeMean":0.015,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.985,"empiricalMass":0.985,"logScore":0.015113637810048184},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.0000999999999999994,"mean":0.01,"median":0,"bias":0.01,"maeMean":0.01,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.99,"empiricalMass":0.99,"logScore":0.01005033585350145}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.98,"1":0.02},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.975,"1":0.005,"2":0.015,"3":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.985,"1":0.005,"2":0.01},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.96,"1":0.04},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.985,"1":0.015},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.99,"1":0.01}}},{"issuedAt":1603324800000,"validUntil":1603929600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":2,"actual":7,"trainingCount":4535,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2020","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":1.9716250000000004,"mean":11.735,"median":10,"bias":4.734999999999999,"maeMean":4.734999999999999,"maeMedian":3,"low":3,"high":28,"coverage":true,"width":25,"pitLower":0.26,"pitUpper":0.345,"empiricalMass":0.085,"logScore":2.4651040224918206},"rollingETAS":{"crps":1.2314250000000007,"mean":9.865,"median":7,"bias":2.865,"maeMean":2.865,"maeMedian":0,"low":1,"high":31,"coverage":true,"width":30,"pitLower":0.465,"pitUpper":0.55,"empiricalMass":0.085,"logScore":2.4651040224918206},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":1.4665750000000006,"mean":11.305,"median":8,"bias":4.305,"maeMean":4.305,"maeMedian":1,"low":2,"high":28,"coverage":true,"width":26,"pitLower":0.355,"pitUpper":0.455,"empiricalMass":0.1,"logScore":2.3025850929940455},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":3.6717500000000003,"mean":12.42,"median":12,"bias":5.42,"maeMean":5.42,"maeMedian":5,"low":7,"high":18,"coverage":true,"width":11,"pitLower":0.025,"pitUpper":0.075,"empiricalMass":0.05,"logScore":2.995732273553991},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.732275,"mean":6.035,"median":6,"bias":-0.9649999999999999,"maeMean":0.9649999999999999,"maeMedian":1,"low":2,"high":10,"coverage":true,"width":8,"pitLower":0.57,"pitUpper":0.705,"empiricalMass":0.135,"logScore":2.0024805005437076},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":1.0647250000000001,"mean":6.035,"median":5,"bias":-0.9649999999999999,"maeMean":0.9649999999999999,"maeMedian":2,"low":2,"high":12,"coverage":true,"width":10,"pitLower":0.61,"pitUpper":0.715,"empiricalMass":0.105,"logScore":2.2537949288246137}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.005,"1":0.01,"2":0.015,"3":0.035,"4":0.045,"5":0.035,"6":0.115,"7":0.085,"8":0.11,"9":0.035,"10":0.07,"11":0.035,"12":0.065,"13":0.03,"14":0.04,"15":0.045,"16":0.015,"17":0.03,"18":0.025,"19":0.02,"20":0.015,"21":0.01,"22":0.01,"23":0.015,"24":0.015,"25":0.005,"26":0.005,"27":0.005,"28":0.01,"30":0.005,"31":0.02,"32":0.005,"40":0.005,"44":0.005,"46":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.015,"1":0.055,"2":0.06,"3":0.035,"4":0.095,"5":0.11,"6":0.095,"7":0.085,"8":0.07,"9":0.065,"10":0.06,"11":0.055,"12":0.03,"13":0.02,"14":0.02,"15":0.01,"16":0.005,"17":0.01,"18":0.01,"19":0.01,"21":0.005,"25":0.005,"27":0.01,"28":0.005,"31":0.01,"32":0.005,"33":0.005,"40":0.005,"46":0.01,"49":0.005,"50":0.005,"51":0.005,"72":0.005,"85":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.01,"1":0.015,"2":0.025,"3":0.07,"4":0.055,"5":0.095,"6":0.085,"7":0.1,"8":0.08,"9":0.085,"10":0.06,"11":0.025,"12":0.02,"13":0.045,"14":0.03,"15":0.005,"16":0.03,"17":0.02,"18":0.005,"19":0.025,"20":0.01,"22":0.01,"23":0.01,"24":0.015,"25":0.005,"26":0.005,"27":0.005,"28":0.005,"30":0.005,"31":0.005,"32":0.005,"35":0.005,"42":0.005,"48":0.005,"63":0.005,"65":0.005,"80":0.005,"94":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"4":0.01,"5":0.01,"6":0.005,"7":0.05,"8":0.045,"9":0.065,"10":0.11,"11":0.085,"12":0.125,"13":0.13,"14":0.11,"15":0.075,"16":0.065,"17":0.045,"18":0.04,"19":0.015,"20":0.01,"21":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"1":0.01,"2":0.05,"3":0.07,"4":0.155,"5":0.155,"6":0.13,"7":0.135,"8":0.155,"9":0.07,"10":0.05,"11":0.015,"12":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.01,"1":0.03,"2":0.1,"3":0.11,"4":0.14,"5":0.12,"6":0.1,"7":0.105,"8":0.035,"9":0.07,"10":0.07,"11":0.04,"12":0.02,"13":0.02,"14":0.02,"15":0.01}}},{"issuedAt":1603324800000,"validUntil":1603929600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":3,"actual":1,"trainingCount":4535,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2020","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.3313250000000001,"mean":1.605,"median":1,"bias":0.605,"maeMean":0.605,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.32,"pitUpper":0.61,"empiricalMass":0.29,"logScore":1.2378743560016174},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.3204,"mean":1.34,"median":1,"bias":0.3400000000000001,"maeMean":0.3400000000000001,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":6,"coverage":true,"width":6,"pitLower":0.445,"pitUpper":0.725,"empiricalMass":0.28,"logScore":1.2729656758128873},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.30337500000000006,"mean":1.455,"median":1,"bias":0.45500000000000007,"maeMean":0.45500000000000007,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.38,"pitUpper":0.665,"empiricalMass":0.285,"logScore":1.2552660987134867},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.42355,"mean":1.75,"median":2,"bias":0.75,"maeMean":0.75,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.235,"pitUpper":0.47,"empiricalMass":0.235,"logScore":1.448169764837978},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.240925,"mean":0.725,"median":1,"bias":-0.275,"maeMean":0.275,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.465,"pitUpper":0.845,"empiricalMass":0.38,"logScore":0.9675840262617056},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.3681,"mean":0.57,"median":0,"bias":-0.43000000000000005,"maeMean":0.43000000000000005,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.59,"pitUpper":0.86,"empiricalMass":0.27,"logScore":1.3093333199837622}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.32,"1":0.29,"2":0.165,"3":0.09,"4":0.06,"5":0.04,"6":0.01,"7":0.005,"8":0.015,"12":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.445,"1":0.28,"2":0.11,"3":0.07,"4":0.025,"5":0.01,"6":0.03,"7":0.005,"8":0.01,"9":0.01,"19":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.38,"1":0.285,"2":0.16,"3":0.075,"4":0.055,"5":0.01,"6":0.005,"8":0.015,"12":0.005,"13":0.005,"16":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.235,"1":0.235,"2":0.265,"3":0.14,"4":0.09,"5":0.02,"6":0.005,"7":0.005,"8":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.465,"1":0.38,"2":0.13,"3":0.02,"5":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.59,"1":0.27,"2":0.12,"3":0.02}}},{"issuedAt":1603324800000,"validUntil":1603929600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4535,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2020","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.025824999999999987,"mean":0.175,"median":0,"bias":0.175,"maeMean":0.175,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.84,"empiricalMass":0.84,"logScore":0.1743533871447778},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.016774999999999984,"mean":0.175,"median":0,"bias":0.175,"maeMean":0.175,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.875,"empiricalMass":0.875,"logScore":0.13353139262452263},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.025400000000000006,"mean":0.21,"median":0,"bias":0.21,"maeMean":0.21,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.845,"empiricalMass":0.845,"logScore":0.16841865162496325},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.054550000000000015,"mean":0.28,"median":0,"bias":0.28,"maeMean":0.28,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.77,"empiricalMass":0.77,"logScore":0.2613647641344075},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.014399999999999996,"mean":0.12,"median":0,"bias":0.12,"maeMean":0.12,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.88,"empiricalMass":0.88,"logScore":0.12783337150988489},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.010024999999999992,"mean":0.105,"median":0,"bias":0.105,"maeMean":0.105,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.9,"empiricalMass":0.9,"logScore":0.10536051565782628}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.84,"1":0.145,"2":0.015},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.875,"1":0.095,"2":0.015,"3":0.01,"4":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.845,"1":0.12,"2":0.025,"3":0.005,"5":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.77,"1":0.19,"2":0.035,"4":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.88,"1":0.12},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.9,"1":0.095,"2":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1603324800000,"validUntil":1605916800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":2,"actual":20,"trainingCount":4535,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2020","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":18.306649999999998,"mean":49.71,"median":46,"bias":29.71,"maeMean":29.71,"maeMedian":26,"low":20,"high":89,"coverage":true,"width":69,"pitLower":0.045,"pitUpper":0.05,"empiricalMass":0.005,"logScore":5.298317366548036},"rollingETAS":{"crps":17.288149999999998,"mean":54.02,"median":44.5,"bias":34.02,"maeMean":34.02,"maeMedian":24.5,"low":19,"high":113,"coverage":true,"width":94,"pitLower":0.05,"pitUpper":0.055,"empiricalMass":0.005,"logScore":5.298317366548036},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":18.452174999999997,"mean":51.005,"median":45.5,"bias":31.005000000000003,"maeMean":31.005000000000003,"maeMedian":25.5,"low":21,"high":101,"coverage":false,"width":80,"pitLower":0.025,"pitUpper":0.035,"empiricalMass":0.01,"logScore":4.605170185988091},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":30.765175,"mean":55.165,"median":55.5,"bias":35.165,"maeMean":35.165,"maeMedian":35.5,"low":41,"high":67,"coverage":false,"width":26,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentPoisson":{"crps":3.609275,"mean":25.695,"median":26,"bias":5.695,"maeMean":5.695,"maeMedian":6,"low":16,"high":34,"coverage":true,"width":18,"pitLower":0.125,"pitUpper":0.16,"empiricalMass":0.035,"logScore":3.3524072174927233},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":2.9656000000000002,"mean":25.34,"median":25,"bias":5.34,"maeMean":5.34,"maeMedian":5,"low":15,"high":38,"coverage":true,"width":23,"pitLower":0.22,"pitUpper":0.255,"empiricalMass":0.035,"logScore":3.3524072174927233}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"10":0.005,"13":0.005,"14":0.005,"16":0.005,"18":0.015,"19":0.01,"20":0.005,"21":0.005,"22":0.01,"23":0.005,"24":0.005,"25":0.02,"26":0.015,"27":0.005,"28":0.015,"29":0.02,"30":0.02,"31":0.03,"32":0.015,"33":0.015,"35":0.02,"36":0.025,"37":0.01,"38":0.03,"39":0.025,"40":0.02,"41":0.05,"42":0.005,"43":0.015,"44":0.02,"45":0.04,"46":0.035,"47":0.02,"48":0.02,"49":0.035,"50":0.015,"51":0.015,"52":0.01,"53":0.005,"54":0.02,"55":0.015,"56":0.025,"57":0.01,"58":0.01,"59":0.025,"60":0.02,"61":0.015,"62":0.005,"63":0.005,"64":0.01,"65":0.01,"66":0.02,"67":0.005,"68":0.005,"70":0.015,"72":0.005,"73":0.005,"74":0.01,"76":0.005,"77":0.01,"79":0.005,"80":0.015,"81":0.005,"82":0.01,"84":0.005,"85":0.005,"87":0.005,"89":0.01,"91":0.01,"96":0.005,"99":0.005,"100":0.005,"111":0.005,"128":0.005,"143":0.005,"179":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"12":0.005,"13":0.005,"14":0.005,"15":0.005,"16":0.01,"17":0.005,"18":0.01,"19":0.005,"20":0.005,"21":0.02,"22":0.01,"23":0.015,"24":0.025,"25":0.015,"26":0.01,"27":0.03,"28":0.03,"29":0.015,"30":0.005,"31":0.015,"32":0.01,"33":0.025,"34":0.025,"35":0.025,"36":0.015,"37":0.02,"38":0.005,"39":0.015,"40":0.015,"41":0.045,"42":0.02,"43":0.02,"44":0.015,"45":0.015,"46":0.03,"47":0.005,"48":0.02,"49":0.015,"50":0.015,"51":0.01,"52":0.01,"53":0.01,"54":0.005,"55":0.025,"56":0.015,"57":0.025,"58":0.015,"59":0.005,"60":0.01,"61":0.005,"63":0.01,"65":0.015,"68":0.005,"70":0.02,"71":0.01,"72":0.01,"73":0.005,"75":0.005,"76":0.015,"77":0.005,"79":0.02,"81":0.005,"82":0.005,"83":0.005,"84":0.02,"88":0.005,"89":0.005,"93":0.01,"96":0.005,"98":0.005,"101":0.005,"107":0.005,"110":0.005,"111":0.01,"113":0.005,"114":0.005,"125":0.005,"127":0.01,"129":0.005,"155":0.005,"161":0.005,"184":0.005,"194":0.005,"409":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"12":0.005,"17":0.005,"18":0.01,"19":0.005,"20":0.01,"21":0.02,"23":0.025,"24":0.005,"25":0.005,"26":0.01,"27":0.015,"28":0.005,"29":0.025,"30":0.005,"31":0.02,"32":0.015,"33":0.015,"34":0.03,"35":0.02,"36":0.025,"37":0.005,"38":0.03,"39":0.01,"40":0.045,"41":0.035,"42":0.01,"43":0.01,"44":0.04,"45":0.04,"46":0.035,"47":0.03,"48":0.015,"49":0.04,"50":0.04,"51":0.015,"52":0.005,"53":0.005,"54":0.01,"55":0.01,"56":0.035,"57":0.01,"58":0.01,"59":0.005,"60":0.005,"61":0.015,"62":0.02,"63":0.015,"66":0.005,"67":0.005,"68":0.005,"69":0.005,"70":0.005,"71":0.005,"72":0.005,"74":0.01,"76":0.005,"79":0.01,"80":0.005,"82":0.01,"85":0.005,"87":0.005,"88":0.005,"89":0.005,"90":0.005,"92":0.005,"94":0.005,"95":0.005,"98":0.005,"100":0.005,"101":0.01,"102":0.015,"103":0.005,"104":0.005,"112":0.01,"187":0.005,"248":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"37":0.005,"39":0.015,"40":0.005,"41":0.03,"42":0.015,"43":0.02,"44":0.01,"45":0.025,"46":0.03,"47":0.025,"48":0.005,"49":0.035,"50":0.055,"51":0.04,"52":0.04,"53":0.045,"54":0.045,"55":0.055,"56":0.06,"57":0.065,"58":0.045,"59":0.04,"60":0.03,"61":0.05,"62":0.025,"63":0.045,"64":0.02,"65":0.035,"66":0.015,"67":0.02,"68":0.02,"70":0.01,"71":0.01,"76":0.005,"77":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"12":0.005,"13":0.01,"15":0.02,"16":0.02,"17":0.015,"18":0.015,"19":0.04,"20":0.035,"21":0.04,"22":0.065,"23":0.055,"24":0.065,"25":0.08,"26":0.065,"27":0.1,"28":0.065,"29":0.075,"30":0.055,"31":0.04,"32":0.055,"33":0.02,"34":0.025,"35":0.02,"36":0.01,"40":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"9":0.005,"10":0.01,"11":0.005,"12":0.01,"14":0.015,"15":0.01,"16":0.035,"17":0.06,"18":0.04,"19":0.03,"20":0.035,"21":0.065,"22":0.06,"23":0.045,"24":0.045,"25":0.045,"26":0.075,"27":0.07,"28":0.045,"29":0.035,"30":0.055,"31":0.015,"32":0.045,"33":0.015,"34":0.015,"35":0.025,"36":0.01,"37":0.01,"38":0.02,"39":0.01,"40":0.005,"41":0.005,"42":0.005,"43":0.01,"45":0.005,"46":0.005,"47":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1603324800000,"validUntil":1605916800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":3,"actual":5,"trainingCount":4535,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2020","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.854825,"mean":5.965,"median":5,"bias":0.9649999999999999,"maeMean":0.9649999999999999,"maeMedian":0,"low":1,"high":13,"coverage":true,"width":12,"pitLower":0.395,"pitUpper":0.52,"empiricalMass":0.125,"logScore":2.0794415416798357},"rollingETAS":{"crps":1.2313500000000004,"mean":7.69,"median":6,"bias":2.6900000000000004,"maeMean":2.6900000000000004,"maeMedian":1,"low":1,"high":19,"coverage":true,"width":18,"pitLower":0.355,"pitUpper":0.45,"empiricalMass":0.095,"logScore":2.353878387381596},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.7824499999999999,"mean":5.93,"median":5,"bias":0.9299999999999997,"maeMean":0.9299999999999997,"maeMedian":0,"low":1,"high":14,"coverage":true,"width":13,"pitLower":0.425,"pitUpper":0.565,"empiricalMass":0.14,"logScore":1.9661128563728327},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":1.209125,"mean":7.315,"median":7,"bias":2.3150000000000004,"maeMean":2.3150000000000004,"maeMedian":2,"low":3,"high":12,"coverage":true,"width":9,"pitLower":0.15,"pitUpper":0.315,"empiricalMass":0.165,"logScore":1.8018098050815563},"recentPoisson":{"crps":1.583275,"mean":2.715,"median":2.5,"bias":-2.285,"maeMean":2.285,"maeMedian":2.5,"low":0,"high":6,"coverage":true,"width":6,"pitLower":0.875,"pitUpper":0.945,"empiricalMass":0.07,"logScore":2.659260036932778},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":1.5884749999999999,"mean":2.695,"median":3,"bias":-2.305,"maeMean":2.305,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":6,"coverage":true,"width":6,"pitLower":0.89,"pitUpper":0.935,"empiricalMass":0.045,"logScore":3.101092789211817}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.035,"1":0.08,"2":0.09,"3":0.08,"4":0.11,"5":0.125,"6":0.115,"7":0.07,"8":0.085,"9":0.05,"10":0.02,"11":0.035,"12":0.025,"13":0.035,"14":0.015,"15":0.02,"22":0.005,"26":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.025,"1":0.05,"2":0.085,"3":0.125,"4":0.07,"5":0.095,"6":0.12,"7":0.07,"8":0.04,"9":0.025,"10":0.06,"11":0.035,"12":0.03,"13":0.035,"14":0.035,"15":0.005,"16":0.01,"17":0.01,"18":0.01,"19":0.02,"20":0.02,"23":0.005,"28":0.005,"29":0.005,"30":0.005,"76":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.04,"1":0.06,"2":0.065,"3":0.12,"4":0.14,"5":0.14,"6":0.09,"7":0.085,"8":0.06,"9":0.04,"10":0.025,"11":0.04,"12":0.02,"13":0.015,"14":0.02,"15":0.01,"16":0.01,"17":0.005,"20":0.005,"21":0.005,"28":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"2":0.02,"3":0.08,"4":0.05,"5":0.165,"6":0.105,"7":0.16,"8":0.1,"9":0.09,"10":0.06,"11":0.09,"12":0.03,"13":0.02,"14":0.02,"16":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.05,"1":0.175,"2":0.275,"3":0.215,"4":0.16,"5":0.07,"6":0.04,"7":0.01,"9":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.065,"1":0.175,"2":0.25,"3":0.21,"4":0.19,"5":0.045,"6":0.05,"7":0.015}}},{"issuedAt":1603324800000,"validUntil":1605916800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4535,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2020","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.2015,"mean":0.66,"median":0,"bias":0.66,"maeMean":0.66,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.575,"empiricalMass":0.575,"logScore":0.5533852381847867},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.40612499999999996,"mean":1.135,"median":1,"bias":1.135,"maeMean":1.135,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.445,"empiricalMass":0.445,"logScore":0.8096809968158968},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.23909999999999998,"mean":0.77,"median":0,"bias":0.77,"maeMean":0.77,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.56,"empiricalMass":0.56,"logScore":0.579818495252942},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.41517499999999996,"mean":0.965,"median":1,"bias":0.965,"maeMean":0.965,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.425,"empiricalMass":0.425,"logScore":0.8556661100577202},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.071825,"mean":0.305,"median":0,"bias":0.305,"maeMean":0.305,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.735,"empiricalMass":0.735,"logScore":0.3078847797693004},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.11622499999999997,"mean":0.425,"median":0,"bias":0.425,"maeMean":0.425,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.67,"empiricalMass":0.67,"logScore":0.40047756659712525}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.575,"1":0.295,"2":0.075,"3":0.03,"4":0.01,"5":0.005,"6":0.01},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.445,"1":0.28,"2":0.155,"3":0.045,"4":0.03,"5":0.035,"7":0.005,"16":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.56,"1":0.26,"2":0.07,"3":0.08,"4":0.02,"5":0.01},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.425,"1":0.295,"2":0.205,"3":0.055,"4":0.01,"5":0.005,"6":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.735,"1":0.225,"2":0.04},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.67,"1":0.245,"2":0.075,"3":0.01}}},{"issuedAt":1605916800000,"validUntil":1606003200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":2,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4555,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2020","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.8138,"mean":1.74,"median":1,"bias":1.74,"maeMean":1.74,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.245,"empiricalMass":0.245,"logScore":1.40649706843741},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.6140000000000001,"mean":1.79,"median":1,"bias":1.79,"maeMean":1.79,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":6,"coverage":true,"width":6,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.36,"empiricalMass":0.36,"logScore":1.0216512475319814},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.6816499999999999,"mean":1.88,"median":1,"bias":1.88,"maeMean":1.88,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":6,"coverage":true,"width":6,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.34,"empiricalMass":0.34,"logScore":1.0788096613719298},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":1.048175,"mean":1.745,"median":2,"bias":1.745,"maeMean":1.745,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.175,"empiricalMass":0.175,"logScore":1.742969305058623},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.376475,"mean":0.855,"median":1,"bias":0.855,"maeMean":0.855,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.425,"empiricalMass":0.425,"logScore":0.8556661100577202},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.269875,"mean":0.835,"median":0,"bias":0.835,"maeMean":0.835,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.535,"empiricalMass":0.535,"logScore":0.6254885320861304}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.245,"1":0.34,"2":0.19,"3":0.105,"4":0.06,"5":0.025,"6":0.015,"7":0.005,"10":0.005,"16":0.005,"17":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.36,"1":0.28,"2":0.17,"3":0.035,"4":0.07,"5":0.025,"6":0.025,"7":0.01,"8":0.01,"12":0.005,"16":0.005,"44":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.34,"1":0.295,"2":0.12,"3":0.07,"4":0.07,"5":0.04,"6":0.015,"7":0.02,"8":0.005,"12":0.005,"13":0.005,"15":0.01,"22":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.175,"1":0.28,"2":0.295,"3":0.17,"4":0.04,"5":0.035,"6":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.425,"1":0.37,"2":0.145,"3":0.045,"4":0.015},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.535,"1":0.255,"2":0.12,"3":0.06,"4":0.015,"6":0.005,"7":0.01}}},{"issuedAt":1605916800000,"validUntil":1606003200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":3,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4555,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2020","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.023224999999999996,"mean":0.185,"median":0,"bias":0.185,"maeMean":0.185,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.85,"empiricalMass":0.85,"logScore":0.16251892949777494},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.027150000000000007,"mean":0.25,"median":0,"bias":0.25,"maeMean":0.25,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.84,"empiricalMass":0.84,"logScore":0.1743533871447778},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.03685000000000002,"mean":0.23,"median":0,"bias":0.23,"maeMean":0.23,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.81,"empiricalMass":0.81,"logScore":0.21072103131565253},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.06340000000000004,"mean":0.28,"median":0,"bias":0.28,"maeMean":0.28,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.75,"empiricalMass":0.75,"logScore":0.2876820724517809},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.01112500000000001,"mean":0.115,"median":0,"bias":0.115,"maeMean":0.115,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.895,"empiricalMass":0.895,"logScore":0.11093156070728166},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.0043249999999999955,"mean":0.075,"median":0,"bias":0.075,"maeMean":0.075,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.935,"empiricalMass":0.935,"logScore":0.06720874969344999}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.85,"1":0.125,"2":0.015,"3":0.01},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.84,"1":0.135,"2":0.005,"3":0.005,"4":0.005,"7":0.01},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.81,"1":0.165,"2":0.015,"3":0.005,"4":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.75,"1":0.22,"2":0.03},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.895,"1":0.095,"2":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.935,"1":0.055,"2":0.01}}},{"issuedAt":1605916800000,"validUntil":1606003200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4555,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2020","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.00042500000000000177,"mean":0.025,"median":0,"bias":0.025,"maeMean":0.025,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.98,"empiricalMass":0.98,"logScore":0.020202707317519466},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.0006250000000000006,"mean":0.025,"median":0,"bias":0.025,"maeMean":0.025,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.975,"empiricalMass":0.975,"logScore":0.025317807984289897},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.0006250000000000006,"mean":0.025,"median":0,"bias":0.025,"maeMean":0.025,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.975,"empiricalMass":0.975,"logScore":0.025317807984289897},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.00040000000000000105,"mean":0.02,"median":0,"bias":0.02,"maeMean":0.02,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.98,"empiricalMass":0.98,"logScore":0.020202707317519466},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.0002249999999999995,"mean":0.015,"median":0,"bias":0.015,"maeMean":0.015,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.985,"empiricalMass":0.985,"logScore":0.015113637810048184},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.00040000000000000105,"mean":0.02,"median":0,"bias":0.02,"maeMean":0.02,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.98,"empiricalMass":0.98,"logScore":0.020202707317519466}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.98,"1":0.015,"2":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.975,"1":0.025},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.975,"1":0.025},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.98,"1":0.02},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.985,"1":0.015},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.98,"1":0.02}}},{"issuedAt":1605916800000,"validUntil":1606521600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":2,"actual":5,"trainingCount":4555,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2020","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":3.4284,"mean":12.58,"median":10,"bias":7.58,"maeMean":7.58,"maeMedian":5,"low":3,"high":32,"coverage":true,"width":29,"pitLower":0.095,"pitUpper":0.165,"empiricalMass":0.07,"logScore":2.659260036932778},"rollingETAS":{"crps":2.222125,"mean":11.565,"median":8,"bias":6.5649999999999995,"maeMean":6.5649999999999995,"maeMedian":3,"low":1,"high":35,"coverage":true,"width":34,"pitLower":0.26,"pitUpper":0.33,"empiricalMass":0.07,"logScore":2.659260036932778},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":3.248175,"mean":12.325,"median":10,"bias":7.324999999999999,"maeMean":7.324999999999999,"maeMedian":5,"low":2,"high":28,"coverage":true,"width":26,"pitLower":0.135,"pitUpper":0.195,"empiricalMass":0.06,"logScore":2.8134107167600364},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":5.245225,"mean":12.125,"median":12,"bias":7.125,"maeMean":7.125,"maeMedian":7,"low":7,"high":18,"coverage":false,"width":11,"pitLower":0.01,"pitUpper":0.01,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.568875,"mean":5.535,"median":5,"bias":0.5350000000000001,"maeMean":0.5350000000000001,"maeMedian":0,"low":2,"high":10,"coverage":true,"width":8,"pitLower":0.4,"pitUpper":0.535,"empiricalMass":0.135,"logScore":2.0024805005437076},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.6286000000000003,"mean":5.36,"median":5,"bias":0.3600000000000003,"maeMean":0.3600000000000003,"maeMedian":0,"low":1,"high":10,"coverage":true,"width":9,"pitLower":0.41,"pitUpper":0.57,"empiricalMass":0.16,"logScore":1.8325814637483102}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"1":0.015,"2":0.02,"3":0.025,"4":0.035,"5":0.07,"6":0.08,"7":0.05,"8":0.085,"9":0.085,"10":0.07,"11":0.03,"12":0.055,"13":0.055,"14":0.06,"15":0.055,"16":0.025,"17":0.01,"18":0.02,"19":0.015,"20":0.005,"21":0.02,"22":0.005,"23":0.02,"24":0.02,"25":0.005,"32":0.015,"33":0.005,"34":0.01,"35":0.005,"37":0.005,"45":0.005,"47":0.005,"50":0.005,"55":0.005,"75":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.005,"1":0.06,"2":0.045,"3":0.06,"4":0.09,"5":0.07,"6":0.06,"7":0.08,"8":0.065,"9":0.08,"10":0.05,"11":0.02,"12":0.045,"13":0.04,"14":0.03,"15":0.015,"16":0.01,"17":0.005,"18":0.025,"19":0.015,"20":0.005,"21":0.02,"22":0.005,"23":0.005,"24":0.005,"25":0.005,"26":0.005,"29":0.01,"31":0.005,"32":0.005,"35":0.01,"38":0.005,"42":0.005,"44":0.005,"46":0.005,"47":0.005,"49":0.005,"56":0.005,"57":0.005,"66":0.005,"132":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.005,"1":0.02,"2":0.025,"3":0.035,"4":0.05,"5":0.06,"6":0.075,"7":0.075,"8":0.055,"9":0.04,"10":0.08,"11":0.065,"12":0.05,"13":0.055,"14":0.045,"15":0.045,"16":0.025,"17":0.04,"18":0.015,"19":0.005,"20":0.015,"21":0.005,"22":0.02,"23":0.005,"24":0.01,"25":0.01,"27":0.015,"28":0.015,"29":0.005,"31":0.005,"40":0.005,"42":0.005,"54":0.005,"69":0.01,"70":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"4":0.01,"6":0.025,"7":0.045,"8":0.075,"9":0.065,"10":0.1,"11":0.125,"12":0.1,"13":0.135,"14":0.1,"15":0.085,"16":0.035,"17":0.02,"18":0.045,"19":0.015,"20":0.005,"22":0.01,"23":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.005,"1":0.005,"2":0.04,"3":0.145,"4":0.205,"5":0.135,"6":0.135,"7":0.165,"8":0.07,"9":0.025,"10":0.035,"11":0.01,"12":0.015,"13":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.01,"1":0.06,"2":0.075,"3":0.14,"4":0.125,"5":0.16,"6":0.135,"7":0.075,"8":0.07,"9":0.06,"10":0.05,"11":0.02,"12":0.01,"15":0.005,"16":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1605916800000,"validUntil":1606521600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":3,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4555,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2020","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.713175,"mean":1.625,"median":1,"bias":1.625,"maeMean":1.625,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.305,"empiricalMass":0.305,"logScore":1.1874435023747254},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.5077749999999999,"mean":1.575,"median":1,"bias":1.575,"maeMean":1.575,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":6,"coverage":true,"width":6,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.425,"empiricalMass":0.425,"logScore":0.8556661100577202},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.607125,"mean":1.465,"median":1,"bias":1.465,"maeMean":1.465,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.36,"empiricalMass":0.36,"logScore":1.0216512475319814},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.934275,"mean":1.595,"median":1,"bias":1.595,"maeMean":1.595,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.205,"empiricalMass":0.205,"logScore":1.584745299843729},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.22724999999999995,"mean":0.59,"median":0,"bias":0.59,"maeMean":0.59,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.54,"empiricalMass":0.54,"logScore":0.616186139423817},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.26012500000000005,"mean":0.655,"median":0,"bias":0.655,"maeMean":0.655,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.51,"empiricalMass":0.51,"logScore":0.6733445532637656}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.305,"1":0.305,"2":0.17,"3":0.075,"4":0.07,"5":0.03,"6":0.02,"7":0.01,"8":0.005,"9":0.005,"10":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.425,"1":0.255,"2":0.11,"3":0.09,"4":0.04,"5":0.02,"6":0.01,"8":0.025,"9":0.015,"13":0.005,"22":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.36,"1":0.27,"2":0.155,"3":0.115,"4":0.055,"5":0.005,"6":0.02,"7":0.005,"8":0.005,"9":0.005,"11":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.205,"1":0.3,"2":0.265,"3":0.165,"4":0.055,"5":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.54,"1":0.335,"2":0.12,"3":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.51,"1":0.35,"2":0.12,"3":0.015,"4":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1605916800000,"validUntil":1606521600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4555,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2020","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.02857499999999999,"mean":0.215,"median":0,"bias":0.215,"maeMean":0.215,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.835,"empiricalMass":0.835,"logScore":0.18032355413128162},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.03030000000000002,"mean":0.23,"median":0,"bias":0.23,"maeMean":0.23,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.83,"empiricalMass":0.83,"logScore":0.18632957819149348},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.018174999999999997,"mean":0.175,"median":0,"bias":0.175,"maeMean":0.175,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.87,"empiricalMass":0.87,"logScore":0.13926206733350766},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.026325000000000015,"mean":0.195,"median":0,"bias":0.195,"maeMean":0.195,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.84,"empiricalMass":0.84,"logScore":0.1743533871447778},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.0072499999999999926,"mean":0.09,"median":0,"bias":0.09,"maeMean":0.09,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.915,"empiricalMass":0.915,"logScore":0.0888312137066157},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.006400000000000003,"mean":0.08,"median":0,"bias":0.08,"maeMean":0.08,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.92,"empiricalMass":0.92,"logScore":0.08338160893905101}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.835,"1":0.13,"2":0.025,"3":0.005,"4":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.83,"1":0.135,"2":0.025,"3":0.005,"6":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.87,"1":0.095,"2":0.03,"4":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.84,"1":0.135,"2":0.015,"3":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.915,"1":0.08,"2":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.92,"1":0.08}}},{"issuedAt":1605916800000,"validUntil":1608508800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":2,"actual":40,"trainingCount":4555,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2020","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":6.010649999999998,"mean":53.69,"median":48.5,"bias":13.689999999999998,"maeMean":13.689999999999998,"maeMedian":8.5,"low":28,"high":98,"coverage":true,"width":70,"pitLower":0.29,"pitUpper":0.32,"empiricalMass":0.03,"logScore":3.506557897319982},"rollingETAS":{"crps":6.256474999999998,"mean":52.545,"median":46,"bias":12.545000000000002,"maeMean":12.545000000000002,"maeMedian":6,"low":21,"high":121,"coverage":true,"width":100,"pitLower":0.405,"pitUpper":0.41,"empiricalMass":0.005,"logScore":5.298317366548036},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":7.343899999999998,"mean":55.72,"median":51,"bias":15.719999999999999,"maeMean":15.719999999999999,"maeMedian":11,"low":25,"high":100,"coverage":true,"width":75,"pitLower":0.26,"pitUpper":0.285,"empiricalMass":0.025,"logScore":3.6888794541139363},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":10.176625000000001,"mean":54.215,"median":54,"bias":14.215000000000003,"maeMean":14.215000000000003,"maeMedian":14,"low":42,"high":68,"coverage":false,"width":26,"pitLower":0.015,"pitUpper":0.03,"empiricalMass":0.015,"logScore":4.199705077879927},"recentPoisson":{"crps":13.3103,"mean":23.93,"median":24,"bias":-16.07,"maeMean":16.07,"maeMedian":16,"low":16,"high":33,"coverage":false,"width":17,"pitLower":1,"pitUpper":1,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":13.60375,"mean":23.32,"median":23,"bias":-16.68,"maeMean":16.68,"maeMedian":17,"low":14,"high":33,"coverage":false,"width":19,"pitLower":1,"pitUpper":1,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"22":0.005,"24":0.005,"25":0.015,"27":0.015,"28":0.02,"29":0.035,"30":0.01,"31":0.015,"32":0.01,"33":0.015,"34":0.01,"35":0.02,"36":0.025,"37":0.025,"38":0.025,"39":0.04,"40":0.03,"41":0.015,"42":0.02,"43":0.015,"44":0.05,"45":0.015,"46":0.03,"47":0.02,"48":0.015,"49":0.015,"50":0.01,"51":0.025,"52":0.025,"53":0.015,"54":0.04,"55":0.01,"56":0.03,"57":0.01,"58":0.02,"59":0.025,"60":0.015,"61":0.005,"62":0.005,"63":0.015,"64":0.025,"65":0.015,"66":0.01,"67":0.01,"68":0.005,"70":0.01,"71":0.01,"72":0.005,"75":0.015,"78":0.005,"80":0.005,"81":0.01,"82":0.005,"83":0.005,"85":0.005,"86":0.005,"87":0.005,"89":0.005,"90":0.005,"91":0.005,"93":0.01,"94":0.005,"98":0.005,"100":0.005,"103":0.005,"107":0.005,"108":0.005,"111":0.005,"114":0.005,"134":0.005,"146":0.005,"152":0.005,"161":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"11":0.01,"13":0.005,"15":0.005,"19":0.02,"20":0.005,"21":0.02,"22":0.01,"23":0.005,"24":0.005,"25":0.03,"26":0.02,"27":0.03,"28":0.015,"29":0.03,"30":0.03,"31":0.02,"32":0.015,"33":0.04,"34":0.015,"35":0.01,"36":0.015,"37":0.015,"38":0.03,"39":0.005,"40":0.005,"41":0.015,"42":0.01,"43":0.025,"44":0.02,"45":0.015,"46":0.02,"47":0.015,"48":0.01,"49":0.015,"50":0.015,"51":0.02,"52":0.025,"53":0.015,"54":0.015,"55":0.03,"56":0.03,"57":0.005,"58":0.005,"59":0.005,"60":0.01,"62":0.025,"63":0.01,"64":0.01,"65":0.005,"66":0.015,"67":0.005,"70":0.005,"71":0.01,"72":0.01,"74":0.01,"75":0.01,"76":0.01,"77":0.005,"78":0.005,"79":0.01,"82":0.01,"84":0.005,"85":0.005,"86":0.005,"91":0.005,"94":0.005,"95":0.01,"99":0.01,"105":0.005,"107":0.005,"121":0.01,"124":0.01,"126":0.005,"128":0.005,"134":0.005,"157":0.005,"164":0.005,"169":0.005,"176":0.005,"195":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"13":0.005,"17":0.005,"20":0.005,"21":0.01,"23":0.015,"25":0.015,"26":0.035,"27":0.005,"28":0.005,"29":0.015,"30":0.01,"31":0.015,"32":0.01,"33":0.03,"34":0.01,"35":0.015,"36":0.005,"37":0.005,"38":0.015,"39":0.03,"40":0.025,"41":0.02,"42":0.025,"43":0.015,"44":0.025,"45":0.03,"46":0.035,"47":0.02,"48":0.005,"49":0.015,"50":0.005,"51":0.03,"52":0.03,"53":0.015,"54":0.015,"55":0.025,"56":0.02,"57":0.01,"58":0.04,"59":0.01,"60":0.005,"61":0.015,"62":0.01,"65":0.005,"66":0.03,"67":0.005,"68":0.01,"69":0.005,"70":0.02,"71":0.01,"72":0.01,"73":0.01,"74":0.005,"75":0.015,"76":0.005,"77":0.01,"78":0.005,"79":0.005,"80":0.005,"81":0.005,"82":0.01,"83":0.005,"84":0.005,"85":0.015,"88":0.005,"89":0.01,"91":0.005,"92":0.01,"93":0.015,"100":0.005,"103":0.005,"105":0.005,"107":0.005,"113":0.005,"123":0.005,"129":0.005,"143":0.005,"148":0.005,"160":0.005,"197":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"30":0.005,"38":0.005,"39":0.005,"40":0.015,"42":0.03,"43":0.015,"44":0.035,"45":0.025,"46":0.035,"47":0.02,"48":0.015,"49":0.04,"50":0.04,"51":0.04,"52":0.08,"53":0.05,"54":0.05,"55":0.08,"56":0.055,"57":0.055,"58":0.045,"59":0.055,"60":0.03,"61":0.035,"62":0.015,"63":0.02,"64":0.02,"65":0.015,"66":0.01,"67":0.005,"68":0.005,"69":0.015,"70":0.015,"71":0.005,"73":0.005,"74":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"10":0.005,"15":0.01,"16":0.035,"17":0.025,"18":0.065,"19":0.08,"20":0.045,"21":0.065,"22":0.065,"23":0.065,"24":0.12,"25":0.065,"26":0.075,"27":0.07,"28":0.04,"29":0.025,"30":0.035,"31":0.04,"32":0.015,"33":0.02,"34":0.01,"35":0.01,"36":0.005,"37":0.005,"38":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"12":0.005,"13":0.035,"14":0.01,"15":0.025,"16":0.01,"17":0.04,"18":0.07,"19":0.095,"20":0.05,"21":0.055,"22":0.05,"23":0.085,"24":0.075,"25":0.07,"26":0.035,"27":0.06,"28":0.035,"29":0.035,"30":0.04,"31":0.04,"32":0.01,"33":0.05,"34":0.01,"35":0.01}}},{"issuedAt":1605916800000,"validUntil":1608508800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":3,"actual":4,"trainingCount":4555,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2020","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":1.2489,"mean":6.67,"median":6,"bias":2.67,"maeMean":2.67,"maeMedian":2,"low":2,"high":16,"coverage":true,"width":14,"pitLower":0.24,"pitUpper":0.34,"empiricalMass":0.1,"logScore":2.3025850929940455},"rollingETAS":{"crps":1.4382000000000001,"mean":7.26,"median":6,"bias":3.26,"maeMean":3.26,"maeMedian":2,"low":1,"high":18,"coverage":true,"width":17,"pitLower":0.25,"pitUpper":0.375,"empiricalMass":0.125,"logScore":2.0794415416798357},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":1.26375,"mean":6.7,"median":6,"bias":2.7,"maeMean":2.7,"maeMedian":2,"low":1,"high":16,"coverage":true,"width":15,"pitLower":0.255,"pitUpper":0.38,"empiricalMass":0.125,"logScore":2.0794415416798357},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":2.241075,"mean":7.615,"median":8,"bias":3.615,"maeMean":3.615,"maeMedian":4,"low":3,"high":12,"coverage":true,"width":9,"pitLower":0.07,"pitUpper":0.145,"empiricalMass":0.075,"logScore":2.5902671654458267},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.708625,"mean":2.915,"median":3,"bias":-1.085,"maeMean":1.085,"maeMedian":1,"low":1,"high":6,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.68,"pitUpper":0.86,"empiricalMass":0.18,"logScore":1.7147984280919266},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.8864000000000001,"mean":2.71,"median":2.5,"bias":-1.29,"maeMean":1.29,"maeMedian":1.5,"low":0,"high":6,"coverage":true,"width":6,"pitLower":0.73,"pitUpper":0.845,"empiricalMass":0.115,"logScore":2.162823150618887}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.015,"1":0.02,"2":0.105,"3":0.1,"4":0.1,"5":0.15,"6":0.09,"7":0.09,"8":0.05,"9":0.065,"10":0.05,"11":0.04,"12":0.04,"13":0.015,"14":0.005,"15":0.01,"16":0.02,"17":0.015,"19":0.01,"22":0.005,"25":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.02,"1":0.065,"2":0.07,"3":0.095,"4":0.125,"5":0.075,"6":0.085,"7":0.08,"8":0.09,"9":0.055,"10":0.045,"11":0.03,"12":0.015,"13":0.015,"14":0.025,"15":0.015,"16":0.025,"17":0.01,"18":0.01,"19":0.01,"20":0.02,"24":0.005,"25":0.005,"27":0.005,"32":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.025,"1":0.07,"2":0.085,"3":0.075,"4":0.125,"5":0.1,"6":0.1,"7":0.07,"8":0.065,"9":0.065,"10":0.045,"11":0.06,"12":0.015,"13":0.02,"14":0.02,"15":0.005,"16":0.005,"17":0.01,"18":0.015,"19":0.01,"24":0.005,"30":0.005,"31":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"2":0.01,"3":0.06,"4":0.075,"5":0.06,"6":0.175,"7":0.105,"8":0.14,"9":0.145,"10":0.09,"11":0.05,"12":0.055,"13":0.005,"14":0.025,"16":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.045,"1":0.15,"2":0.23,"3":0.255,"4":0.18,"5":0.075,"6":0.025,"7":0.03,"8":0.005,"9":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.08,"1":0.18,"2":0.24,"3":0.23,"4":0.115,"5":0.09,"6":0.035,"7":0.015,"8":0.005,"9":0.005,"10":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1605916800000,"validUntil":1608508800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":4,"actual":1,"trainingCount":4555,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2020","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.285575,"mean":0.795,"median":1,"bias":-0.20499999999999996,"maeMean":0.20499999999999996,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.495,"pitUpper":0.81,"empiricalMass":0.315,"logScore":1.155182640156504},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.3167500000000001,"mean":0.91,"median":0,"bias":-0.08999999999999997,"maeMean":0.08999999999999997,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.505,"pitUpper":0.79,"empiricalMass":0.285,"logScore":1.2552660987134867},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.2855,"mean":0.86,"median":1,"bias":-0.14,"maeMean":0.14,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.49,"pitUpper":0.805,"empiricalMass":0.315,"logScore":1.155182640156504},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.16062500000000002,"mean":0.945,"median":1,"bias":-0.05500000000000005,"maeMean":0.05500000000000005,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.34,"pitUpper":0.8,"empiricalMass":0.46,"logScore":0.7765287894989963},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.57465,"mean":0.33,"median":0,"bias":-0.6699999999999999,"maeMean":0.6699999999999999,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.755,"pitUpper":0.935,"empiricalMass":0.18,"logScore":1.7147984280919266},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.44715,"mean":0.41,"median":0,"bias":-0.5900000000000001,"maeMean":0.5900000000000001,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.665,"pitUpper":0.93,"empiricalMass":0.265,"logScore":1.3280254529959148}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.495,"1":0.315,"2":0.13,"3":0.035,"4":0.01,"5":0.015},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.505,"1":0.285,"2":0.09,"3":0.07,"4":0.025,"5":0.015,"6":0.01},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.49,"1":0.315,"2":0.125,"3":0.03,"4":0.015,"5":0.01,"6":0.01,"7":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.34,"1":0.46,"2":0.13,"3":0.06,"4":0.005,"5":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.755,"1":0.18,"2":0.045,"3":0.02},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.665,"1":0.265,"2":0.065,"3":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1608508800000,"validUntil":1608595200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":2,"actual":1,"trainingCount":4595,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2020","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.3613249999999999,"mean":1.585,"median":1,"bias":0.585,"maeMean":0.585,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.34,"pitUpper":0.6,"empiricalMass":0.26,"logScore":1.3470736479666092},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.32800000000000007,"mean":1.61,"median":1,"bias":0.6100000000000001,"maeMean":0.6100000000000001,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":7,"coverage":true,"width":7,"pitLower":0.375,"pitUpper":0.645,"empiricalMass":0.27,"logScore":1.3093333199837622},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.38555000000000006,"mean":1.67,"median":1,"bias":0.6699999999999999,"maeMean":0.6699999999999999,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.33,"pitUpper":0.575,"empiricalMass":0.245,"logScore":1.40649706843741},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.35425000000000006,"mean":1.74,"median":1,"bias":0.74,"maeMean":0.74,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.17,"pitUpper":0.505,"empiricalMass":0.335,"logScore":1.0936247471570706},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.25895,"mean":0.7,"median":1,"bias":-0.30000000000000004,"maeMean":0.30000000000000004,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.485,"pitUpper":0.85,"empiricalMass":0.365,"logScore":1.0078579253996456},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.31227499999999997,"mean":0.885,"median":0.5,"bias":-0.11499999999999999,"maeMean":0.11499999999999999,"maeMedian":0.5,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.5,"pitUpper":0.775,"empiricalMass":0.275,"logScore":1.2909841813155656}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.34,"1":0.26,"2":0.155,"3":0.1,"4":0.085,"5":0.035,"6":0.01,"7":0.005,"8":0.005,"13":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.375,"1":0.27,"2":0.185,"3":0.045,"4":0.05,"5":0.015,"6":0.005,"7":0.015,"8":0.005,"9":0.005,"10":0.005,"11":0.01,"12":0.015},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.33,"1":0.245,"2":0.15,"3":0.155,"4":0.055,"5":0.03,"6":0.02,"7":0.01,"20":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.17,"1":0.335,"2":0.235,"3":0.155,"4":0.065,"5":0.03,"6":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.485,"1":0.365,"2":0.115,"3":0.035},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.5,"1":0.275,"2":0.13,"3":0.045,"4":0.04,"5":0.005,"6":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1608508800000,"validUntil":1608595200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":3,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4595,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2020","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.03134999999999999,"mean":0.21,"median":0,"bias":0.21,"maeMean":0.21,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.825,"empiricalMass":0.825,"logScore":0.19237189264745613},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.02252499999999999,"mean":0.215,"median":0,"bias":0.215,"maeMean":0.215,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.86,"empiricalMass":0.86,"logScore":0.15082288973458366},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.029849999999999988,"mean":0.21,"median":0,"bias":0.21,"maeMean":0.21,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.83,"empiricalMass":0.83,"logScore":0.18632957819149348},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.04022499999999998,"mean":0.215,"median":0,"bias":0.215,"maeMean":0.215,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.8,"empiricalMass":0.8,"logScore":0.2231435513142097},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.008199999999999999,"mean":0.1,"median":0,"bias":0.1,"maeMean":0.1,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.91,"empiricalMass":0.91,"logScore":0.09431067947124129},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.011024999999999993,"mean":0.105,"median":0,"bias":0.105,"maeMean":0.105,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.895,"empiricalMass":0.895,"logScore":0.11093156070728166}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.825,"1":0.15,"2":0.015,"3":0.01},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.86,"1":0.09,"2":0.03,"3":0.015,"4":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.83,"1":0.14,"2":0.025,"4":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.8,"1":0.185,"2":0.015},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.91,"1":0.08,"2":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.895,"1":0.105}}},{"issuedAt":1608508800000,"validUntil":1608595200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4595,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2020","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.000899999999999998,"mean":0.03,"median":0,"bias":0.03,"maeMean":0.03,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.97,"empiricalMass":0.97,"logScore":0.030459207484708574},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.0006499999999999978,"mean":0.03,"median":0,"bias":0.03,"maeMean":0.03,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.975,"empiricalMass":0.975,"logScore":0.025317807984289897},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.0001250000000000001,"mean":0.015,"median":0,"bias":0.015,"maeMean":0.015,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.99,"empiricalMass":0.99,"logScore":0.01005033585350145},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.0012250000000000039,"mean":0.035,"median":0,"bias":0.035,"maeMean":0.035,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.965,"empiricalMass":0.965,"logScore":0.03562717764315116},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.00002499999999999985,"mean":0.005,"median":0,"bias":0.005,"maeMean":0.005,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.995,"empiricalMass":0.995,"logScore":0.005012541823544286},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.0002500000000000002,"mean":0.02,"median":0,"bias":0.02,"maeMean":0.02,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.985,"empiricalMass":0.985,"logScore":0.015113637810048184}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.97,"1":0.03},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.975,"1":0.02,"2":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.99,"1":0.005,"2":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.965,"1":0.035},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.995,"1":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.985,"1":0.01,"2":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1608508800000,"validUntil":1609113600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":2,"actual":6,"trainingCount":4595,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2020","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":2.7222500000000003,"mean":11.84,"median":10,"bias":5.84,"maeMean":5.84,"maeMedian":4,"low":3,"high":26,"coverage":true,"width":23,"pitLower":0.175,"pitUpper":0.235,"empiricalMass":0.06,"logScore":2.8134107167600364},"rollingETAS":{"crps":2.33545,"mean":12.31,"median":9,"bias":6.3100000000000005,"maeMean":6.3100000000000005,"maeMedian":3,"low":3,"high":29,"coverage":true,"width":26,"pitLower":0.205,"pitUpper":0.28,"empiricalMass":0.075,"logScore":2.5902671654458267},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":2.6546000000000003,"mean":12,"median":10,"bias":6,"maeMean":6,"maeMedian":4,"low":3,"high":29,"coverage":true,"width":26,"pitLower":0.15,"pitUpper":0.225,"empiricalMass":0.075,"logScore":2.5902671654458267},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":4.4921500000000005,"mean":12.28,"median":12,"bias":6.279999999999999,"maeMean":6.279999999999999,"maeMedian":6,"low":7,"high":18,"coverage":false,"width":11,"pitLower":0.02,"pitUpper":0.035,"empiricalMass":0.015,"logScore":4.199705077879927},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.5314750000000001,"mean":5.555,"median":6,"bias":-0.4450000000000003,"maeMean":0.4450000000000003,"maeMedian":0,"low":2,"high":9,"coverage":true,"width":7,"pitLower":0.485,"pitUpper":0.67,"empiricalMass":0.185,"logScore":1.6873994539038122},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.7362250000000001,"mean":5.545,"median":6,"bias":-0.45500000000000007,"maeMean":0.45500000000000007,"maeMedian":0,"low":1,"high":10,"coverage":true,"width":9,"pitLower":0.495,"pitUpper":0.62,"empiricalMass":0.125,"logScore":2.0794415416798357}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"1":0.005,"2":0.025,"3":0.04,"4":0.04,"5":0.065,"6":0.06,"7":0.075,"8":0.065,"9":0.075,"10":0.08,"11":0.07,"12":0.065,"13":0.04,"14":0.025,"15":0.04,"16":0.015,"17":0.01,"18":0.025,"19":0.03,"20":0.015,"21":0.01,"22":0.02,"23":0.01,"24":0.015,"25":0.015,"26":0.02,"27":0.015,"29":0.005,"30":0.005,"31":0.005,"32":0.005,"35":0.005,"45":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"1":0.01,"2":0.03,"3":0.05,"4":0.03,"5":0.085,"6":0.075,"7":0.08,"8":0.09,"9":0.07,"10":0.055,"11":0.05,"12":0.05,"13":0.04,"14":0.055,"15":0.025,"16":0.005,"17":0.02,"18":0.025,"19":0.025,"20":0.01,"21":0.01,"22":0.01,"23":0.005,"24":0.01,"25":0.01,"26":0.01,"27":0.01,"29":0.01,"30":0.005,"31":0.005,"34":0.005,"36":0.005,"48":0.005,"51":0.005,"65":0.005,"83":0.005,"106":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.005,"1":0.01,"2":0.025,"3":0.03,"4":0.045,"5":0.035,"6":0.075,"7":0.08,"8":0.075,"9":0.1,"10":0.08,"11":0.03,"12":0.08,"13":0.015,"14":0.055,"15":0.045,"16":0.03,"17":0.015,"18":0.015,"19":0.015,"20":0.005,"21":0.03,"22":0.01,"23":0.005,"25":0.01,"26":0.005,"27":0.01,"28":0.01,"29":0.01,"32":0.02,"33":0.01,"44":0.005,"46":0.005,"52":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"4":0.005,"5":0.015,"6":0.015,"7":0.04,"8":0.035,"9":0.095,"10":0.09,"11":0.11,"12":0.125,"13":0.115,"14":0.135,"15":0.085,"16":0.04,"17":0.03,"18":0.02,"19":0.02,"20":0.01,"21":0.01,"22":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"1":0.01,"2":0.05,"3":0.125,"4":0.15,"5":0.15,"6":0.185,"7":0.155,"8":0.1,"9":0.05,"10":0.01,"11":0.005,"12":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.005,"1":0.05,"2":0.1,"3":0.14,"4":0.08,"5":0.12,"6":0.125,"7":0.14,"8":0.095,"9":0.035,"10":0.075,"11":0.025,"12":0.005,"13":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1608508800000,"validUntil":1609113600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":3,"actual":1,"trainingCount":4595,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2020","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.3146500000000001,"mean":1.4,"median":1,"bias":0.3999999999999999,"maeMean":0.3999999999999999,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.355,"pitUpper":0.63,"empiricalMass":0.275,"logScore":1.2909841813155656},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.37654999999999994,"mean":1.6,"median":1,"bias":0.6000000000000001,"maeMean":0.6000000000000001,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.4,"pitUpper":0.615,"empiricalMass":0.215,"logScore":1.5371172508544744},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.2659,"mean":1.31,"median":1,"bias":0.31000000000000005,"maeMean":0.31000000000000005,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.37,"pitUpper":0.715,"empiricalMass":0.345,"logScore":1.0642108619507773},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.41437500000000005,"mean":1.795,"median":2,"bias":0.7949999999999999,"maeMean":0.7949999999999999,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.17,"pitUpper":0.455,"empiricalMass":0.285,"logScore":1.2552660987134867},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.25579999999999997,"mean":0.74,"median":1,"bias":-0.26,"maeMean":0.26,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.475,"pitUpper":0.83,"empiricalMass":0.355,"logScore":1.0356374895067213},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.2865,"mean":0.73,"median":0,"bias":-0.27,"maeMean":0.27,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.505,"pitUpper":0.83,"empiricalMass":0.325,"logScore":1.1239300966523995}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.355,"1":0.275,"2":0.175,"3":0.095,"4":0.045,"5":0.03,"6":0.02,"8":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.4,"1":0.215,"2":0.17,"3":0.105,"4":0.04,"5":0.035,"6":0.005,"7":0.005,"10":0.005,"11":0.005,"13":0.005,"15":0.005,"17":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.37,"1":0.345,"2":0.095,"3":0.095,"4":0.055,"5":0.015,"6":0.01,"7":0.005,"8":0.005,"12":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.17,"1":0.285,"2":0.27,"3":0.165,"4":0.085,"5":0.015,"6":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.475,"1":0.355,"2":0.135,"3":0.03,"5":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.505,"1":0.325,"2":0.12,"3":0.045,"6":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1608508800000,"validUntil":1609113600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4595,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2020","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.018625000000000003,"mean":0.155,"median":0,"bias":0.155,"maeMean":0.155,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.865,"empiricalMass":0.865,"logScore":0.14502577205025774},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.041950000000000015,"mean":0.28,"median":0,"bias":0.28,"maeMean":0.28,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.805,"empiricalMass":0.805,"logScore":0.21691300156357363},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.012199999999999989,"mean":0.12,"median":0,"bias":0.12,"maeMean":0.12,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.89,"empiricalMass":0.89,"logScore":0.11653381625595151},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.024925000000000003,"mean":0.185,"median":0,"bias":0.185,"maeMean":0.185,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.845,"empiricalMass":0.845,"logScore":0.16841865162496325},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.014424999999999993,"mean":0.125,"median":0,"bias":0.125,"maeMean":0.125,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.88,"empiricalMass":0.88,"logScore":0.12783337150988489},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.005624999999999991,"mean":0.075,"median":0,"bias":0.075,"maeMean":0.075,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.925,"empiricalMass":0.925,"logScore":0.0779615414697118}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.865,"1":0.115,"2":0.02},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.805,"1":0.135,"2":0.045,"3":0.005,"4":0.01},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.89,"1":0.1,"2":0.01},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.845,"1":0.125,"2":0.03},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.88,"1":0.115,"2":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.925,"1":0.075}}},{"issuedAt":1608508800000,"validUntil":1611100800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":2,"actual":22,"trainingCount":4595,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2020","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":20.898699999999998,"mean":57.31,"median":51,"bias":35.31,"maeMean":35.31,"maeMedian":29,"low":25,"high":116,"coverage":false,"width":91,"pitLower":0.025,"pitUpper":0.025,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"rollingETAS":{"crps":17.6203,"mean":53.41,"median":46,"bias":31.409999999999997,"maeMean":31.409999999999997,"maeMedian":24,"low":24,"high":107,"coverage":false,"width":83,"pitLower":0.025,"pitUpper":0.04,"empiricalMass":0.015,"logScore":4.199705077879927},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":22.236050000000002,"mean":56.58,"median":54,"bias":34.58,"maeMean":34.58,"maeMedian":32,"low":26,"high":106,"coverage":false,"width":80,"pitLower":0.01,"pitUpper":0.015,"empiricalMass":0.005,"logScore":5.298317366548036},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":28.517174999999998,"mean":54.205,"median":54,"bias":32.205,"maeMean":32.205,"maeMedian":32,"low":44,"high":64,"coverage":false,"width":20,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentPoisson":{"crps":1.26965,"mean":23.47,"median":23,"bias":1.4699999999999989,"maeMean":1.4699999999999989,"maeMedian":1,"low":16,"high":32,"coverage":true,"width":16,"pitLower":0.38,"pitUpper":0.465,"empiricalMass":0.085,"logScore":2.4651040224918206},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":1.6141499999999995,"mean":23.72,"median":23,"bias":1.7199999999999989,"maeMean":1.7199999999999989,"maeMedian":1,"low":14,"high":36,"coverage":true,"width":22,"pitLower":0.425,"pitUpper":0.475,"empiricalMass":0.05,"logScore":2.995732273553991}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"16":0.005,"18":0.005,"19":0.005,"20":0.005,"21":0.005,"24":0.015,"25":0.035,"26":0.005,"28":0.01,"29":0.01,"30":0.01,"31":0.005,"32":0.015,"33":0.025,"34":0.015,"36":0.015,"37":0.015,"38":0.02,"39":0.04,"40":0.025,"41":0.03,"42":0.02,"43":0.005,"44":0.005,"45":0.045,"46":0.03,"47":0.02,"48":0.025,"50":0.025,"51":0.035,"52":0.02,"53":0.02,"55":0.015,"56":0.04,"57":0.015,"58":0.01,"59":0.015,"60":0.015,"61":0.02,"62":0.01,"63":0.02,"64":0.015,"65":0.01,"66":0.005,"67":0.02,"69":0.02,"70":0.005,"71":0.005,"72":0.005,"75":0.015,"76":0.01,"77":0.015,"78":0.005,"79":0.01,"80":0.005,"81":0.005,"82":0.005,"85":0.005,"86":0.005,"90":0.005,"94":0.01,"95":0.005,"96":0.01,"99":0.005,"106":0.005,"109":0.005,"111":0.005,"113":0.005,"116":0.005,"122":0.005,"126":0.005,"134":0.005,"141":0.005,"142":0.005,"152":0.005,"154":0.005,"175":0.005,"181":0.01},"rollingETAS":{"16":0.005,"19":0.01,"21":0.01,"22":0.015,"23":0.005,"24":0.01,"25":0.015,"26":0.01,"27":0.005,"28":0.025,"30":0.01,"31":0.015,"32":0.02,"33":0.02,"34":0.025,"35":0.04,"36":0.02,"37":0.05,"38":0.015,"39":0.04,"40":0.025,"41":0.01,"42":0.02,"43":0.02,"44":0.03,"45":0.01,"46":0.035,"47":0.025,"48":0.01,"49":0.01,"50":0.04,"51":0.015,"52":0.005,"53":0.025,"54":0.02,"55":0.015,"56":0.015,"57":0.025,"58":0.02,"59":0.005,"60":0.005,"61":0.005,"63":0.015,"64":0.01,"65":0.015,"66":0.025,"67":0.005,"69":0.01,"70":0.005,"71":0.005,"72":0.005,"75":0.005,"77":0.02,"78":0.005,"79":0.005,"83":0.02,"84":0.005,"86":0.005,"87":0.005,"89":0.005,"90":0.005,"95":0.005,"96":0.005,"105":0.005,"107":0.005,"110":0.005,"111":0.005,"114":0.005,"124":0.005,"143":0.005,"160":0.005,"162":0.005,"180":0.005,"196":0.005,"238":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"15":0.005,"20":0.005,"22":0.005,"24":0.005,"25":0.015,"26":0.02,"28":0.01,"29":0.01,"30":0.02,"31":0.015,"32":0.005,"33":0.01,"34":0.025,"35":0.03,"36":0.02,"37":0.02,"38":0.015,"39":0.025,"40":0.02,"41":0.005,"42":0.02,"43":0.005,"44":0.015,"45":0.02,"46":0.015,"47":0.015,"48":0.02,"49":0.01,"50":0.025,"51":0.03,"52":0.01,"53":0.025,"54":0.03,"55":0.025,"56":0.025,"57":0.02,"58":0.025,"59":0.02,"60":0.01,"61":0.03,"62":0.01,"63":0.01,"64":0.025,"65":0.02,"66":0.01,"68":0.005,"70":0.005,"71":0.005,"72":0.04,"74":0.01,"75":0.005,"76":0.01,"78":0.01,"79":0.005,"80":0.01,"81":0.005,"83":0.01,"84":0.01,"85":0.005,"86":0.005,"88":0.005,"90":0.01,"92":0.005,"93":0.01,"96":0.005,"98":0.005,"101":0.005,"103":0.005,"106":0.01,"107":0.005,"108":0.005,"109":0.005,"110":0.015,"122":0.005,"125":0.005,"153":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"36":0.005,"37":0.005,"40":0.015,"41":0.01,"42":0.005,"43":0.005,"44":0.01,"45":0.02,"46":0.005,"47":0.04,"48":0.06,"49":0.08,"50":0.055,"51":0.055,"52":0.08,"53":0.04,"54":0.045,"55":0.045,"56":0.045,"57":0.055,"58":0.03,"59":0.035,"60":0.075,"61":0.055,"62":0.02,"63":0.035,"64":0.025,"65":0.01,"66":0.01,"67":0.01,"68":0.005,"70":0.005,"77":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"12":0.005,"13":0.005,"14":0.01,"15":0.015,"16":0.025,"17":0.04,"18":0.055,"19":0.075,"20":0.08,"21":0.07,"22":0.085,"23":0.08,"24":0.07,"25":0.06,"26":0.055,"27":0.035,"28":0.06,"29":0.06,"30":0.015,"31":0.035,"32":0.025,"33":0.005,"34":0.01,"35":0.015,"36":0.005,"37":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"7":0.005,"9":0.005,"11":0.005,"12":0.015,"13":0.015,"14":0.015,"15":0.03,"16":0.02,"17":0.05,"18":0.055,"19":0.06,"20":0.085,"21":0.065,"22":0.05,"23":0.05,"24":0.06,"25":0.05,"26":0.055,"27":0.045,"28":0.04,"29":0.025,"30":0.035,"31":0.05,"32":0.03,"33":0.015,"34":0.01,"35":0.005,"36":0.005,"37":0.015,"38":0.005,"40":0.005,"41":0.015,"43":0.005,"46":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1608508800000,"validUntil":1611100800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":3,"actual":1,"trainingCount":4595,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2020","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":3.3938750000000004,"mean":6.835,"median":6,"bias":5.835,"maeMean":5.835,"maeMedian":5,"low":1,"high":16,"coverage":true,"width":15,"pitLower":0.01,"pitUpper":0.07,"empiricalMass":0.06,"logScore":2.8134107167600364},"rollingETAS":{"crps":3.4972,"mean":7.2,"median":6,"bias":6.2,"maeMean":6.2,"maeMedian":5,"low":2,"high":18,"coverage":false,"width":16,"pitLower":0.01,"pitUpper":0.045,"empiricalMass":0.035,"logScore":3.3524072174927233},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":3.7330750000000004,"mean":7.055,"median":6,"bias":6.055,"maeMean":6.055,"maeMedian":5,"low":2,"high":15,"coverage":false,"width":13,"pitLower":0.005,"pitUpper":0.04,"empiricalMass":0.035,"logScore":3.3524072174927233},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":4.677074999999999,"mean":7.095,"median":7,"bias":6.095,"maeMean":6.095,"maeMedian":6,"low":3,"high":11,"coverage":false,"width":8,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentPoisson":{"crps":1.186125,"mean":3.165,"median":3,"bias":2.165,"maeMean":2.165,"maeMedian":2,"low":1,"high":7,"coverage":true,"width":6,"pitLower":0.04,"pitUpper":0.215,"empiricalMass":0.175,"logScore":1.742969305058623},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":1.078125,"mean":2.885,"median":3,"bias":1.8849999999999998,"maeMean":1.8849999999999998,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":6,"coverage":true,"width":6,"pitLower":0.065,"pitUpper":0.215,"empiricalMass":0.15,"logScore":1.8971199848858813}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.01,"1":0.06,"2":0.075,"3":0.085,"4":0.1,"5":0.125,"6":0.12,"7":0.1,"8":0.08,"9":0.05,"10":0.04,"11":0.025,"12":0.035,"13":0.01,"14":0.02,"15":0.01,"16":0.005,"17":0.01,"19":0.005,"20":0.005,"23":0.01,"24":0.005,"25":0.01,"27":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.01,"1":0.035,"2":0.085,"3":0.1,"4":0.16,"5":0.07,"6":0.105,"7":0.065,"8":0.085,"9":0.05,"10":0.035,"11":0.05,"12":0.035,"13":0.015,"14":0.02,"15":0.02,"16":0.005,"18":0.01,"19":0.01,"20":0.005,"21":0.005,"22":0.005,"24":0.005,"29":0.005,"32":0.005,"41":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.005,"1":0.035,"2":0.065,"3":0.095,"4":0.115,"5":0.125,"6":0.095,"7":0.1,"8":0.07,"9":0.055,"10":0.05,"11":0.035,"12":0.035,"13":0.025,"14":0.025,"15":0.025,"16":0.01,"17":0.005,"18":0.005,"19":0.01,"20":0.01,"23":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"3":0.05,"4":0.11,"5":0.15,"6":0.16,"7":0.11,"8":0.12,"9":0.115,"10":0.095,"11":0.04,"12":0.025,"13":0.015,"14":0.005,"15":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.04,"1":0.175,"2":0.195,"3":0.215,"4":0.15,"5":0.07,"6":0.085,"7":0.065,"8":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.065,"1":0.15,"2":0.225,"3":0.23,"4":0.16,"5":0.095,"6":0.05,"7":0.02,"8":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1608508800000,"validUntil":1611100800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4595,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2020","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.29379999999999995,"mean":0.86,"median":0.5,"bias":0.86,"maeMean":0.86,"maeMedian":0.5,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.5,"empiricalMass":0.5,"logScore":0.6931471805599453},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.32115000000000005,"mean":0.93,"median":1,"bias":0.93,"maeMean":0.93,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.485,"empiricalMass":0.485,"logScore":0.7236063880446539},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.28842499999999993,"mean":0.815,"median":0.5,"bias":0.815,"maeMean":0.815,"maeMedian":0.5,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.5,"empiricalMass":0.5,"logScore":0.6931471805599453},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.50265,"mean":1.03,"median":1,"bias":1.03,"maeMean":1.03,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.355,"empiricalMass":0.355,"logScore":1.0356374895067213},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.11924999999999997,"mean":0.41,"median":0,"bias":0.41,"maeMean":0.41,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.66,"empiricalMass":0.66,"logScore":0.4155154439616658},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.15259999999999996,"mean":0.48,"median":0,"bias":0.48,"maeMean":0.48,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.62,"empiricalMass":0.62,"logScore":0.4780358009429998}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.5,"1":0.315,"2":0.105,"3":0.035,"4":0.015,"5":0.015,"6":0.01,"7":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.485,"1":0.305,"2":0.125,"3":0.035,"4":0.01,"5":0.02,"6":0.01,"7":0.01},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.5,"1":0.325,"2":0.095,"3":0.05,"4":0.01,"5":0.01,"6":0.01},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.355,"1":0.365,"2":0.19,"3":0.08,"4":0.005,"5":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.66,"1":0.28,"2":0.055,"4":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.62,"1":0.29,"2":0.08,"3":0.01}}},{"issuedAt":1611100800000,"validUntil":1611187200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":2,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4617,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2021","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.40415,"mean":1.26,"median":1,"bias":1.26,"maeMean":1.26,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.455,"empiricalMass":0.455,"logScore":0.7874578600311866},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.31752500000000006,"mean":0.885,"median":1,"bias":0.885,"maeMean":0.885,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.47,"empiricalMass":0.47,"logScore":0.7550225842780328},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.34940000000000004,"mean":1.28,"median":1,"bias":1.28,"maeMean":1.28,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.495,"empiricalMass":0.495,"logScore":0.7031975164134467},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":1.09145,"mean":1.8,"median":2,"bias":1.8,"maeMean":1.8,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.17,"empiricalMass":0.17,"logScore":1.7719568419318752},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.27857499999999996,"mean":0.725,"median":1,"bias":0.725,"maeMean":0.725,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.495,"empiricalMass":0.495,"logScore":0.7031975164134467},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.29785,"mean":0.78,"median":1,"bias":0.78,"maeMean":0.78,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.49,"empiricalMass":0.49,"logScore":0.7133498878774648}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.455,"1":0.275,"2":0.125,"3":0.06,"4":0.03,"5":0.025,"6":0.005,"8":0.005,"9":0.01,"11":0.005,"19":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.47,"1":0.36,"2":0.1,"3":0.035,"4":0.01,"6":0.01,"7":0.005,"8":0.005,"9":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.495,"1":0.27,"2":0.1,"3":0.03,"4":0.035,"5":0.03,"6":0.01,"7":0.005,"8":0.005,"10":0.005,"12":0.005,"18":0.005,"19":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.17,"1":0.275,"2":0.265,"3":0.19,"4":0.08,"5":0.015,"6":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.495,"1":0.36,"2":0.1,"3":0.025,"4":0.01,"5":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.49,"1":0.325,"2":0.13,"3":0.035,"4":0.01,"5":0.01}}},{"issuedAt":1611100800000,"validUntil":1611187200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":3,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4617,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2021","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.013225000000000015,"mean":0.165,"median":0,"bias":0.165,"maeMean":0.165,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.89,"empiricalMass":0.89,"logScore":0.11653381625595151},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.008599999999999997,"mean":0.12,"median":0,"bias":0.12,"maeMean":0.12,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.91,"empiricalMass":0.91,"logScore":0.09431067947124129},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.012025000000000008,"mean":0.165,"median":0,"bias":0.165,"maeMean":0.165,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.9,"empiricalMass":0.9,"logScore":0.10536051565782628},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.03864999999999999,"mean":0.22,"median":0,"bias":0.22,"maeMean":0.22,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.805,"empiricalMass":0.805,"logScore":0.21691300156357363},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.009025000000000005,"mean":0.095,"median":0,"bias":0.095,"maeMean":0.095,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.905,"empiricalMass":0.905,"logScore":0.0998203352822109},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.004449999999999996,"mean":0.08,"median":0,"bias":0.08,"maeMean":0.08,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.935,"empiricalMass":0.935,"logScore":0.06720874969344999}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.89,"1":0.08,"2":0.02,"4":0.005,"5":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.91,"1":0.07,"2":0.01,"3":0.01},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.9,"1":0.06,"2":0.02,"3":0.015,"4":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.805,"1":0.17,"2":0.025},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.905,"1":0.095},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.935,"1":0.05,"2":0.015}}},{"issuedAt":1611100800000,"validUntil":1611187200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4617,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2021","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.00040000000000000105,"mean":0.02,"median":0,"bias":0.02,"maeMean":0.02,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.98,"empiricalMass":0.98,"logScore":0.020202707317519466},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.00040000000000000105,"mean":0.02,"median":0,"bias":0.02,"maeMean":0.02,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.98,"empiricalMass":0.98,"logScore":0.020202707317519466},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.000899999999999998,"mean":0.03,"median":0,"bias":0.03,"maeMean":0.03,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.97,"empiricalMass":0.97,"logScore":0.030459207484708574},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.0009250000000000022,"mean":0.035,"median":0,"bias":0.035,"maeMean":0.035,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.97,"empiricalMass":0.97,"logScore":0.030459207484708574},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.00002499999999999985,"mean":0.005,"median":0,"bias":0.005,"maeMean":0.005,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.995,"empiricalMass":0.995,"logScore":0.005012541823544286},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.0002249999999999995,"mean":0.015,"median":0,"bias":0.015,"maeMean":0.015,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.985,"empiricalMass":0.985,"logScore":0.015113637810048184}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.98,"1":0.02},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.98,"1":0.02},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.97,"1":0.03},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.97,"1":0.025,"2":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.995,"1":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.985,"1":0.015}}},{"issuedAt":1611100800000,"validUntil":1611705600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":2,"actual":8,"trainingCount":4617,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2021","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":1.4136500000000005,"mean":9.34,"median":7,"bias":1.3399999999999999,"maeMean":1.3399999999999999,"maeMedian":1,"low":2,"high":24,"coverage":true,"width":22,"pitLower":0.535,"pitUpper":0.615,"empiricalMass":0.08,"logScore":2.5257286443082556},"rollingETAS":{"crps":1.0861999999999998,"mean":7.69,"median":7,"bias":-0.3099999999999996,"maeMean":0.3099999999999996,"maeMedian":1,"low":2,"high":16,"coverage":true,"width":14,"pitLower":0.58,"pitUpper":0.69,"empiricalMass":0.11,"logScore":2.2072749131897207},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":1.5525250000000002,"mean":10.855,"median":8,"bias":2.8550000000000004,"maeMean":2.8550000000000004,"maeMedian":0,"low":2,"high":28,"coverage":true,"width":26,"pitLower":0.49,"pitUpper":0.55,"empiricalMass":0.06,"logScore":2.8134107167600364},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":2.8252749999999995,"mean":12.565,"median":12,"bias":4.5649999999999995,"maeMean":4.5649999999999995,"maeMedian":4,"low":7,"high":18,"coverage":true,"width":11,"pitLower":0.05,"pitUpper":0.1,"empiricalMass":0.05,"logScore":2.995732273553991},"recentPoisson":{"crps":1.5240749999999998,"mean":5.525,"median":5,"bias":-2.4749999999999996,"maeMean":2.4749999999999996,"maeMedian":3,"low":1,"high":9,"coverage":true,"width":8,"pitLower":0.8,"pitUpper":0.905,"empiricalMass":0.105,"logScore":2.2537949288246137},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":1.8243,"mean":5.28,"median":5,"bias":-2.7199999999999998,"maeMean":2.7199999999999998,"maeMedian":3,"low":1,"high":11,"coverage":true,"width":10,"pitLower":0.755,"pitUpper":0.83,"empiricalMass":0.075,"logScore":2.5902671654458267}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.01,"1":0.025,"2":0.06,"3":0.045,"4":0.12,"5":0.135,"6":0.06,"7":0.08,"8":0.08,"9":0.05,"10":0.035,"11":0.04,"12":0.03,"13":0.035,"14":0.02,"15":0.015,"16":0.01,"17":0.02,"18":0.01,"19":0.015,"20":0.01,"21":0.02,"23":0.02,"24":0.005,"25":0.005,"28":0.01,"30":0.01,"31":0.01,"38":0.005,"40":0.005,"43":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"1":0.02,"2":0.065,"3":0.05,"4":0.12,"5":0.145,"6":0.075,"7":0.105,"8":0.11,"9":0.055,"10":0.06,"11":0.04,"12":0.025,"13":0.015,"14":0.04,"15":0.01,"16":0.015,"18":0.01,"19":0.01,"20":0.01,"24":0.005,"27":0.005,"30":0.005,"33":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.015,"1":0.025,"2":0.04,"3":0.045,"4":0.085,"5":0.115,"6":0.065,"7":0.1,"8":0.06,"9":0.04,"10":0.05,"11":0.03,"12":0.04,"13":0.04,"14":0.025,"15":0.04,"16":0.02,"17":0.025,"18":0.01,"19":0.015,"20":0.005,"21":0.02,"22":0.01,"23":0.01,"24":0.005,"25":0.005,"28":0.01,"29":0.01,"33":0.005,"37":0.01,"40":0.005,"51":0.005,"57":0.005,"68":0.005,"76":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"5":0.005,"6":0.015,"7":0.03,"8":0.05,"9":0.075,"10":0.115,"11":0.12,"12":0.145,"13":0.09,"14":0.085,"15":0.055,"16":0.055,"17":0.07,"18":0.045,"19":0.025,"20":0.005,"21":0.015},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.015,"1":0.05,"2":0.04,"3":0.075,"4":0.14,"5":0.22,"6":0.115,"7":0.145,"8":0.105,"9":0.045,"10":0.015,"11":0.015,"12":0.015,"13":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.01,"1":0.06,"2":0.09,"3":0.155,"4":0.16,"5":0.135,"6":0.085,"7":0.06,"8":0.075,"9":0.065,"10":0.05,"11":0.03,"12":0.015,"13":0.005,"14":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1611100800000,"validUntil":1611705600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":3,"actual":1,"trainingCount":4617,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2021","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.3308500000000001,"mean":1.1,"median":1,"bias":0.10000000000000009,"maeMean":0.10000000000000009,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.485,"pitUpper":0.735,"empiricalMass":0.25,"logScore":1.3862943611198906},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.2902,"mean":0.92,"median":1,"bias":-0.07999999999999996,"maeMean":0.07999999999999996,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.475,"pitUpper":0.77,"empiricalMass":0.295,"logScore":1.2207799226423173},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.3304250000000001,"mean":1.425,"median":1,"bias":0.42500000000000004,"maeMean":0.42500000000000004,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.395,"pitUpper":0.66,"empiricalMass":0.265,"logScore":1.3280254529959148},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.404825,"mean":1.735,"median":2,"bias":0.7350000000000001,"maeMean":0.7350000000000001,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.19,"pitUpper":0.47,"empiricalMass":0.28,"logScore":1.2729656758128873},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.26965,"mean":0.63,"median":0,"bias":-0.37,"maeMean":0.37,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.505,"pitUpper":0.88,"empiricalMass":0.375,"logScore":0.9808292530117262},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.33332500000000004,"mean":0.545,"median":0,"bias":-0.45499999999999996,"maeMean":0.45499999999999996,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.57,"pitUpper":0.91,"empiricalMass":0.34,"logScore":1.0788096613719298}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.485,"1":0.25,"2":0.14,"3":0.055,"4":0.015,"5":0.02,"6":0.015,"7":0.005,"8":0.015},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.475,"1":0.295,"2":0.13,"3":0.065,"4":0.015,"5":0.015,"7":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.395,"1":0.265,"2":0.14,"3":0.09,"4":0.05,"5":0.02,"6":0.01,"7":0.01,"8":0.01,"10":0.01},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.19,"1":0.28,"2":0.25,"3":0.185,"4":0.075,"5":0.02},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.505,"1":0.375,"2":0.105,"3":0.015},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.57,"1":0.34,"2":0.075,"3":0.005,"4":0.01}}},{"issuedAt":1611100800000,"validUntil":1611705600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4617,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2021","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.014424999999999993,"mean":0.125,"median":0,"bias":0.125,"maeMean":0.125,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.88,"empiricalMass":0.88,"logScore":0.12783337150988489},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.015725000000000003,"mean":0.135,"median":0,"bias":0.135,"maeMean":0.135,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.875,"empiricalMass":0.875,"logScore":0.13353139262452263},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.017825000000000008,"mean":0.165,"median":0,"bias":0.165,"maeMean":0.165,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.87,"empiricalMass":0.87,"logScore":0.13926206733350766},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.02892499999999998,"mean":0.175,"median":0,"bias":0.175,"maeMean":0.175,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.83,"empiricalMass":0.83,"logScore":0.18632957819149348},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.009025000000000005,"mean":0.095,"median":0,"bias":0.095,"maeMean":0.095,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.905,"empiricalMass":0.905,"logScore":0.0998203352822109},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.005624999999999991,"mean":0.075,"median":0,"bias":0.075,"maeMean":0.075,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.925,"empiricalMass":0.925,"logScore":0.0779615414697118}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.88,"1":0.115,"2":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.875,"1":0.115,"2":0.01},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.87,"1":0.1,"2":0.025,"3":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.83,"1":0.165,"2":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.905,"1":0.095},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.925,"1":0.075}}},{"issuedAt":1611100800000,"validUntil":1613692800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":2,"actual":23,"trainingCount":4617,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2021","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":15.414174999999998,"mean":51.475,"median":45,"bias":28.475,"maeMean":28.475,"maeMedian":22,"low":22,"high":97,"coverage":true,"width":75,"pitLower":0.065,"pitUpper":0.07,"empiricalMass":0.005,"logScore":5.298317366548036},"rollingETAS":{"crps":4.995625,"mean":34.285,"median":30,"bias":11.284999999999997,"maeMean":11.284999999999997,"maeMedian":7,"low":16,"high":65,"coverage":true,"width":49,"pitLower":0.195,"pitUpper":0.225,"empiricalMass":0.03,"logScore":3.506557897319982},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":18.616425,"mean":53.215,"median":48,"bias":30.215000000000003,"maeMean":30.215000000000003,"maeMedian":25,"low":26,"high":91,"coverage":false,"width":65,"pitLower":0.015,"pitUpper":0.035,"empiricalMass":0.02,"logScore":3.912023005428146},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":26.246199999999998,"mean":53.54,"median":53,"bias":30.54,"maeMean":30.54,"maeMedian":30,"low":42,"high":67,"coverage":false,"width":25,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentPoisson":{"crps":1.060975,"mean":23.255,"median":23,"bias":0.254999999999999,"maeMean":0.254999999999999,"maeMedian":0,"low":16,"high":31,"coverage":true,"width":15,"pitLower":0.485,"pitUpper":0.55,"empiricalMass":0.065,"logScore":2.7333680090865},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":1.7522250000000001,"mean":23.735,"median":23,"bias":0.7349999999999994,"maeMean":0.7349999999999994,"maeMedian":0,"low":13,"high":35,"coverage":true,"width":22,"pitLower":0.465,"pitUpper":0.52,"empiricalMass":0.055,"logScore":2.900422093749666}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"15":0.005,"16":0.005,"18":0.005,"19":0.005,"20":0.005,"21":0.01,"22":0.03,"23":0.005,"24":0.03,"25":0.015,"26":0.02,"27":0.035,"29":0.01,"30":0.02,"33":0.015,"34":0.025,"35":0.02,"36":0.03,"37":0.015,"38":0.02,"39":0.015,"40":0.02,"41":0.035,"42":0.04,"43":0.015,"44":0.02,"45":0.045,"46":0.035,"47":0.015,"48":0.015,"49":0.02,"50":0.01,"51":0.01,"52":0.035,"53":0.005,"54":0.01,"55":0.02,"56":0.005,"57":0.01,"58":0.005,"59":0.02,"60":0.01,"61":0.015,"62":0.01,"63":0.005,"64":0.01,"65":0.01,"66":0.005,"68":0.01,"70":0.015,"71":0.005,"72":0.01,"73":0.015,"74":0.005,"77":0.005,"79":0.005,"80":0.01,"81":0.005,"82":0.005,"83":0.005,"84":0.01,"86":0.01,"88":0.015,"90":0.005,"91":0.005,"92":0.005,"94":0.005,"97":0.01,"99":0.005,"106":0.005,"108":0.005,"114":0.005,"147":0.005,"151":0.005,"152":0.01,"184":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"8":0.005,"11":0.005,"13":0.01,"14":0.01,"15":0.015,"16":0.015,"17":0.015,"18":0.02,"19":0.015,"20":0.025,"21":0.02,"22":0.04,"23":0.03,"24":0.03,"25":0.045,"26":0.045,"27":0.035,"28":0.035,"29":0.045,"30":0.055,"31":0.01,"32":0.055,"33":0.045,"34":0.01,"35":0.035,"36":0.02,"37":0.02,"38":0.02,"39":0.015,"40":0.02,"41":0.015,"42":0.02,"44":0.02,"45":0.02,"46":0.015,"47":0.005,"48":0.015,"50":0.005,"51":0.005,"52":0.005,"53":0.01,"54":0.01,"56":0.015,"57":0.005,"61":0.005,"63":0.005,"64":0.005,"65":0.005,"69":0.005,"70":0.005,"71":0.005,"75":0.005,"82":0.005,"86":0.005,"87":0.005,"88":0.005,"110":0.005,"130":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"14":0.005,"19":0.005,"21":0.005,"23":0.02,"24":0.005,"25":0.005,"26":0.015,"27":0.005,"28":0.005,"29":0.02,"30":0.02,"32":0.01,"33":0.02,"34":0.025,"35":0.035,"36":0.015,"37":0.015,"38":0.015,"39":0.035,"40":0.03,"41":0.02,"42":0.03,"43":0.03,"44":0.04,"45":0.02,"46":0.02,"47":0.02,"48":0.015,"49":0.02,"50":0.01,"51":0.02,"52":0.02,"53":0.03,"54":0.015,"55":0.01,"56":0.015,"57":0.02,"58":0.015,"59":0.02,"60":0.01,"61":0.025,"62":0.01,"63":0.02,"64":0.015,"65":0.015,"68":0.02,"70":0.015,"71":0.01,"72":0.005,"74":0.005,"75":0.005,"76":0.01,"78":0.005,"79":0.01,"80":0.005,"83":0.005,"84":0.015,"85":0.005,"86":0.01,"87":0.005,"88":0.01,"90":0.005,"91":0.01,"93":0.005,"95":0.005,"100":0.005,"109":0.005,"110":0.005,"113":0.005,"114":0.005,"115":0.005,"123":0.005,"196":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"34":0.005,"37":0.005,"39":0.005,"40":0.02,"41":0.01,"42":0.03,"43":0.02,"44":0.025,"45":0.025,"46":0.015,"47":0.05,"48":0.04,"49":0.045,"50":0.065,"51":0.05,"52":0.055,"53":0.05,"54":0.075,"55":0.065,"56":0.045,"57":0.03,"58":0.025,"59":0.03,"60":0.045,"61":0.015,"62":0.03,"63":0.03,"64":0.025,"65":0.015,"67":0.005,"68":0.005,"69":0.005,"70":0.005,"71":0.01,"73":0.005,"74":0.01,"76":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"11":0.005,"13":0.005,"14":0.015,"15":0.02,"16":0.015,"17":0.02,"18":0.05,"19":0.05,"20":0.105,"21":0.095,"22":0.105,"23":0.065,"24":0.09,"25":0.065,"26":0.06,"27":0.06,"28":0.055,"29":0.025,"30":0.025,"31":0.025,"32":0.005,"33":0.015,"34":0.01,"36":0.01,"37":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"8":0.005,"9":0.005,"11":0.005,"12":0.02,"13":0.025,"14":0.02,"15":0.035,"16":0.055,"17":0.05,"18":0.03,"19":0.055,"20":0.035,"21":0.08,"22":0.045,"23":0.055,"24":0.05,"25":0.035,"26":0.055,"27":0.035,"28":0.045,"29":0.025,"30":0.05,"31":0.03,"32":0.045,"33":0.04,"34":0.01,"35":0.02,"36":0.005,"37":0.01,"38":0.005,"40":0.01,"41":0.005,"53":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1611100800000,"validUntil":1613692800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":3,"actual":2,"trainingCount":4617,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2021","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":2.2353749999999994,"mean":6.515,"median":5,"bias":4.515,"maeMean":4.515,"maeMedian":3,"low":1,"high":16,"coverage":true,"width":15,"pitLower":0.06,"pitUpper":0.17,"empiricalMass":0.11,"logScore":2.2072749131897207},"rollingETAS":{"crps":1.136025,"mean":4.455,"median":4,"bias":2.455,"maeMean":2.455,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":11,"coverage":true,"width":11,"pitLower":0.16,"pitUpper":0.295,"empiricalMass":0.135,"logScore":2.0024805005437076},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":2.5131499999999996,"mean":6.55,"median":6,"bias":4.55,"maeMean":4.55,"maeMedian":4,"low":1,"high":14,"coverage":true,"width":13,"pitLower":0.055,"pitUpper":0.125,"empiricalMass":0.07,"logScore":2.659260036932778},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":3.7497,"mean":7.21,"median":7,"bias":5.21,"maeMean":5.21,"maeMedian":5,"low":3,"high":12,"coverage":false,"width":9,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.025,"empiricalMass":0.025,"logScore":3.6888794541139363},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.35835000000000006,"mean":2.67,"median":2,"bias":0.6699999999999999,"maeMean":0.6699999999999999,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":6,"coverage":true,"width":6,"pitLower":0.245,"pitUpper":0.56,"empiricalMass":0.315,"logScore":1.155182640156504},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.5566,"mean":2.97,"median":3,"bias":0.9700000000000002,"maeMean":0.9700000000000002,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":6,"coverage":true,"width":6,"pitLower":0.215,"pitUpper":0.42,"empiricalMass":0.205,"logScore":1.584745299843729}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.025,"1":0.035,"2":0.11,"3":0.115,"4":0.145,"5":0.075,"6":0.085,"7":0.095,"8":0.045,"9":0.065,"10":0.045,"11":0.02,"12":0.025,"13":0.03,"14":0.01,"15":0.015,"16":0.015,"17":0.015,"18":0.01,"20":0.01,"21":0.005,"27":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.06,"1":0.1,"2":0.135,"3":0.195,"4":0.09,"5":0.125,"6":0.085,"7":0.06,"8":0.06,"9":0.02,"10":0.015,"11":0.015,"12":0.01,"13":0.005,"14":0.01,"15":0.01,"27":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.01,"1":0.045,"2":0.07,"3":0.125,"4":0.1,"5":0.11,"6":0.085,"7":0.105,"8":0.08,"9":0.1,"10":0.045,"11":0.03,"12":0.03,"13":0.01,"14":0.015,"15":0.01,"16":0.005,"17":0.005,"19":0.005,"20":0.005,"22":0.005,"31":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"2":0.025,"3":0.03,"4":0.09,"5":0.13,"6":0.15,"7":0.15,"8":0.125,"9":0.125,"10":0.065,"11":0.045,"12":0.035,"13":0.02,"16":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.05,"1":0.195,"2":0.315,"3":0.17,"4":0.12,"5":0.07,"6":0.06,"7":0.015,"8":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.055,"1":0.16,"2":0.205,"3":0.225,"4":0.16,"5":0.115,"6":0.06,"7":0.01,"8":0.01}}},{"issuedAt":1611100800000,"validUntil":1613692800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4617,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2021","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.24389999999999995,"mean":0.7,"median":0,"bias":0.7,"maeMean":0.7,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.535,"empiricalMass":0.535,"logScore":0.6254885320861304},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.17307499999999998,"mean":0.615,"median":0,"bias":0.615,"maeMean":0.615,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.61,"empiricalMass":0.61,"logScore":0.4942963218147801},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.3244,"mean":0.8,"median":1,"bias":0.8,"maeMean":0.8,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.46,"empiricalMass":0.46,"logScore":0.7765287894989963},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.38225,"mean":0.88,"median":1,"bias":0.88,"maeMean":0.88,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.44,"empiricalMass":0.44,"logScore":0.8209805520698302},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.12059999999999998,"mean":0.42,"median":0,"bias":0.42,"maeMean":0.42,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.66,"empiricalMass":0.66,"logScore":0.4155154439616658},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.077125,"mean":0.335,"median":0,"bias":0.335,"maeMean":0.335,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.73,"empiricalMass":0.73,"logScore":0.31471074483970024}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.535,"1":0.305,"2":0.12,"3":0.025,"5":0.01,"6":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.61,"1":0.26,"2":0.07,"3":0.04,"4":0.015,"7":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.46,"1":0.37,"2":0.11,"3":0.045,"4":0.01,"7":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.44,"1":0.305,"2":0.195,"3":0.055,"4":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.66,"1":0.27,"2":0.06,"3":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.73,"1":0.205,"2":0.065}}},{"issuedAt":1613692800000,"validUntil":1613779200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":2,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4640,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2021","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.44465,"mean":1.3,"median":1,"bias":1.3,"maeMean":1.3,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.43,"empiricalMass":0.43,"logScore":0.843970070294529},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.4033000000000001,"mean":1.08,"median":1,"bias":1.08,"maeMean":1.08,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.425,"empiricalMass":0.425,"logScore":0.8556661100577202},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.3571749999999999,"mean":1.005,"median":1,"bias":1.005,"maeMean":1.005,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.465,"empiricalMass":0.465,"logScore":0.7657178733947807},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.9883750000000001,"mean":1.695,"median":2,"bias":1.695,"maeMean":1.695,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.195,"empiricalMass":0.195,"logScore":1.6347557204183902},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.314875,"mean":0.785,"median":1,"bias":0.785,"maeMean":0.785,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.475,"empiricalMass":0.475,"logScore":0.7444404749474959},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.297175,"mean":0.765,"median":1,"bias":0.765,"maeMean":0.765,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.495,"empiricalMass":0.495,"logScore":0.7031975164134467}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.43,"1":0.29,"2":0.115,"3":0.08,"4":0.03,"5":0.015,"6":0.01,"7":0.005,"8":0.005,"9":0.005,"10":0.005,"11":0.005,"12":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.425,"1":0.35,"2":0.1,"3":0.06,"4":0.03,"5":0.01,"6":0.01,"7":0.005,"8":0.005,"9":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.465,"1":0.295,"2":0.14,"3":0.06,"4":0.005,"5":0.02,"6":0.005,"8":0.005,"12":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.195,"1":0.285,"2":0.275,"3":0.15,"4":0.065,"5":0.03},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.475,"1":0.335,"2":0.135,"3":0.045,"4":0.005,"5":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.495,"1":0.305,"2":0.155,"3":0.035,"4":0.005,"5":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1613692800000,"validUntil":1613779200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":3,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4640,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2021","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.020350000000000007,"mean":0.18,"median":0,"bias":0.18,"maeMean":0.18,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.86,"empiricalMass":0.86,"logScore":0.15082288973458366},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.015625,"mean":0.155,"median":0,"bias":0.155,"maeMean":0.155,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.88,"empiricalMass":0.88,"logScore":0.12783337150988489},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.009150000000000005,"mean":0.11,"median":0,"bias":0.11,"maeMean":0.11,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.905,"empiricalMass":0.905,"logScore":0.0998203352822109},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.05920000000000003,"mean":0.28,"median":0,"bias":0.28,"maeMean":0.28,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.76,"empiricalMass":0.76,"logScore":0.2744368457017603},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.007225000000000009,"mean":0.085,"median":0,"bias":0.085,"maeMean":0.085,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.915,"empiricalMass":0.915,"logScore":0.0888312137066157},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.001999999999999995,"mean":0.06,"median":0,"bias":0.06,"maeMean":0.06,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.96,"empiricalMass":0.96,"logScore":0.040821994520255166}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.86,"1":0.115,"2":0.015,"3":0.005,"4":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.88,"1":0.085,"2":0.035},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.905,"1":0.085,"2":0.005,"3":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.76,"1":0.2,"2":0.04},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.915,"1":0.085},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.96,"1":0.02,"2":0.02}}},{"issuedAt":1613692800000,"validUntil":1613779200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4640,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2021","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.0000999999999999994,"mean":0.01,"median":0,"bias":0.01,"maeMean":0.01,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.99,"empiricalMass":0.99,"logScore":0.01005033585350145},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.000899999999999998,"mean":0.03,"median":0,"bias":0.03,"maeMean":0.03,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.97,"empiricalMass":0.97,"logScore":0.030459207484708574},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0,"mean":0,"median":0,"bias":0,"maeMean":0,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":1,"empiricalMass":1,"logScore":0},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.0006250000000000006,"mean":0.025,"median":0,"bias":0.025,"maeMean":0.025,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.975,"empiricalMass":0.975,"logScore":0.025317807984289897},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.00002499999999999985,"mean":0.005,"median":0,"bias":0.005,"maeMean":0.005,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.995,"empiricalMass":0.995,"logScore":0.005012541823544286},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.0002249999999999995,"mean":0.015,"median":0,"bias":0.015,"maeMean":0.015,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.985,"empiricalMass":0.985,"logScore":0.015113637810048184}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.99,"1":0.01},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.97,"1":0.03},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":1},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.975,"1":0.025},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.995,"1":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.985,"1":0.015}}},{"issuedAt":1613692800000,"validUntil":1614297600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":2,"actual":2,"trainingCount":4640,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2021","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":4.197625,"mean":9.805,"median":8,"bias":7.805,"maeMean":7.805,"maeMedian":6,"low":2,"high":27,"coverage":true,"width":25,"pitLower":0.02,"pitUpper":0.065,"empiricalMass":0.045,"logScore":3.101092789211817},"rollingETAS":{"crps":2.957375,"mean":7.315,"median":7,"bias":5.315,"maeMean":5.315,"maeMedian":5,"low":2,"high":15,"coverage":true,"width":13,"pitLower":0.03,"pitUpper":0.1,"empiricalMass":0.07,"logScore":2.659260036932778},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":4.171050000000001,"mean":9.93,"median":8,"bias":7.93,"maeMean":7.93,"maeMedian":6,"low":1,"high":24,"coverage":true,"width":23,"pitLower":0.05,"pitUpper":0.085,"empiricalMass":0.035,"logScore":3.3524072174927233},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":8.525675,"mean":12.395,"median":12,"bias":10.395,"maeMean":10.395,"maeMedian":10,"low":8,"high":18,"coverage":false,"width":10,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentPoisson":{"crps":2.12135,"mean":5.32,"median":5,"bias":3.3200000000000003,"maeMean":3.3200000000000003,"maeMedian":3,"low":1,"high":9,"coverage":true,"width":8,"pitLower":0.05,"pitUpper":0.095,"empiricalMass":0.045,"logScore":3.101092789211817},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":2.2558999999999996,"mean":5.7,"median":5,"bias":3.7,"maeMean":3.7,"maeMedian":3,"low":2,"high":10,"coverage":true,"width":8,"pitLower":0.04,"pitUpper":0.1,"empiricalMass":0.06,"logScore":2.8134107167600364}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.005,"1":0.015,"2":0.045,"3":0.07,"4":0.085,"5":0.055,"6":0.105,"7":0.065,"8":0.08,"9":0.1,"10":0.07,"11":0.055,"12":0.02,"13":0.06,"14":0.015,"15":0.01,"16":0.01,"17":0.03,"19":0.005,"20":0.01,"23":0.02,"24":0.005,"25":0.005,"27":0.01,"28":0.005,"29":0.005,"30":0.005,"31":0.015,"33":0.01,"39":0.005,"40":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.005,"1":0.025,"2":0.07,"3":0.13,"4":0.055,"5":0.125,"6":0.08,"7":0.09,"8":0.095,"9":0.07,"10":0.045,"11":0.065,"12":0.06,"13":0.015,"14":0.015,"15":0.01,"16":0.005,"17":0.01,"19":0.01,"20":0.005,"21":0.005,"24":0.005,"42":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.015,"1":0.035,"2":0.035,"3":0.05,"4":0.105,"5":0.08,"6":0.07,"7":0.06,"8":0.085,"9":0.07,"10":0.05,"11":0.05,"12":0.03,"13":0.03,"14":0.035,"15":0.035,"16":0.01,"17":0.02,"18":0.02,"19":0.015,"20":0.005,"21":0.015,"22":0.015,"23":0.005,"24":0.015,"25":0.01,"28":0.005,"29":0.01,"30":0.01,"37":0.005,"72":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"3":0.005,"5":0.005,"6":0.015,"7":0.015,"8":0.055,"9":0.11,"10":0.115,"11":0.1,"12":0.1,"13":0.14,"14":0.12,"15":0.06,"16":0.045,"17":0.03,"18":0.05,"19":0.005,"20":0.01,"21":0.005,"23":0.01,"24":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.015,"1":0.035,"2":0.045,"3":0.145,"4":0.135,"5":0.18,"6":0.14,"7":0.135,"8":0.075,"9":0.05,"10":0.03,"11":0.005,"12":0.005,"14":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.01,"1":0.03,"2":0.06,"3":0.12,"4":0.13,"5":0.185,"6":0.14,"7":0.105,"8":0.055,"9":0.06,"10":0.06,"12":0.02,"13":0.02,"18":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1613692800000,"validUntil":1614297600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":3,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4640,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2021","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.4478749999999999,"mean":1.255,"median":1,"bias":1.255,"maeMean":1.255,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.425,"empiricalMass":0.425,"logScore":0.8556661100577202},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.37092499999999995,"mean":0.995,"median":1,"bias":0.995,"maeMean":0.995,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.45,"empiricalMass":0.45,"logScore":0.7985076962177716},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.41574999999999995,"mean":1.23,"median":1,"bias":1.23,"maeMean":1.23,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.46,"empiricalMass":0.46,"logScore":0.7765287894989963},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.9787750000000001,"mean":1.735,"median":1,"bias":1.735,"maeMean":1.735,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.195,"empiricalMass":0.195,"logScore":1.6347557204183902},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.20557499999999995,"mean":0.595,"median":0,"bias":0.595,"maeMean":0.595,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.565,"empiricalMass":0.565,"logScore":0.5709295478356962},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.238925,"mean":0.595,"median":0,"bias":0.595,"maeMean":0.595,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.52,"empiricalMass":0.52,"logScore":0.6539264674066639}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.425,"1":0.285,"2":0.15,"3":0.055,"4":0.03,"5":0.005,"6":0.035,"9":0.005,"10":0.005,"11":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.45,"1":0.32,"2":0.12,"3":0.06,"4":0.025,"5":0.01,"6":0.01,"9":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.46,"1":0.245,"2":0.14,"3":0.06,"4":0.045,"5":0.02,"6":0.015,"7":0.005,"11":0.005,"13":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.195,"1":0.325,"2":0.19,"3":0.165,"4":0.105,"5":0.005,"6":0.015},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.565,"1":0.31,"2":0.1,"3":0.015,"4":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.52,"1":0.39,"2":0.07,"3":0.015,"4":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1613692800000,"validUntil":1614297600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4640,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2021","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.018625000000000003,"mean":0.155,"median":0,"bias":0.155,"maeMean":0.155,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.865,"empiricalMass":0.865,"logScore":0.14502577205025774},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.013450000000000004,"mean":0.13,"median":0,"bias":0.13,"maeMean":0.13,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.885,"empiricalMass":0.885,"logScore":0.12216763397420753},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.009124999999999994,"mean":0.105,"median":0,"bias":0.105,"maeMean":0.105,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.905,"empiricalMass":0.905,"logScore":0.0998203352822109},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.044999999999999984,"mean":0.24,"median":0,"bias":0.24,"maeMean":0.24,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.79,"empiricalMass":0.79,"logScore":0.23572233352106983},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.007225000000000009,"mean":0.085,"median":0,"bias":0.085,"maeMean":0.085,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.915,"empiricalMass":0.915,"logScore":0.0888312137066157},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.003599999999999999,"mean":0.06,"median":0,"bias":0.06,"maeMean":0.06,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.94,"empiricalMass":0.94,"logScore":0.06187540371808753}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.865,"1":0.115,"2":0.02},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.885,"1":0.1,"2":0.015},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.905,"1":0.085,"2":0.01},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.79,"1":0.18,"2":0.03},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.915,"1":0.085},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.94,"1":0.06}}},{"issuedAt":1613692800000,"validUntil":1616284800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":2,"actual":18,"trainingCount":4640,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2021","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":20.629974999999998,"mean":52.075,"median":45,"bias":34.075,"maeMean":34.075,"maeMedian":27,"low":24,"high":104,"coverage":false,"width":80,"pitLower":0.005,"pitUpper":0.005,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"rollingETAS":{"crps":8.4413,"mean":32.99,"median":30,"bias":14.990000000000002,"maeMean":14.990000000000002,"maeMedian":12,"low":17,"high":59,"coverage":true,"width":42,"pitLower":0.06,"pitUpper":0.09,"empiricalMass":0.03,"logScore":3.506557897319982},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":22.2568,"mean":54.61,"median":48.5,"bias":36.61,"maeMean":36.61,"maeMedian":30.5,"low":24,"high":112,"coverage":false,"width":88,"pitLower":0.01,"pitUpper":0.02,"empiricalMass":0.01,"logScore":4.605170185988091},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":31.302125000000004,"mean":53.465,"median":53,"bias":35.465,"maeMean":35.465,"maeMedian":35,"low":42,"high":65,"coverage":false,"width":23,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentPoisson":{"crps":3.3386000000000005,"mean":23.66,"median":24,"bias":5.66,"maeMean":5.66,"maeMedian":6,"low":15,"high":32,"coverage":true,"width":17,"pitLower":0.145,"pitUpper":0.175,"empiricalMass":0.03,"logScore":3.506557897319982},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":3.2646499999999996,"mean":23.56,"median":24,"bias":5.559999999999999,"maeMean":5.559999999999999,"maeMedian":6,"low":13,"high":36,"coverage":true,"width":23,"pitLower":0.175,"pitUpper":0.215,"empiricalMass":0.04,"logScore":3.2188758248682006}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"16":0.005,"19":0.005,"21":0.005,"22":0.02,"23":0.005,"24":0.015,"25":0.015,"26":0.015,"27":0.015,"28":0.01,"29":0.03,"30":0.015,"31":0.03,"32":0.03,"33":0.01,"34":0.025,"35":0.025,"36":0.025,"37":0.015,"38":0.01,"39":0.03,"40":0.035,"41":0.03,"42":0.05,"44":0.02,"45":0.035,"46":0.01,"47":0.005,"48":0.01,"49":0.015,"50":0.035,"51":0.025,"52":0.005,"53":0.005,"54":0.015,"55":0.015,"56":0.02,"57":0.035,"58":0.02,"59":0.005,"60":0.005,"61":0.025,"62":0.015,"63":0.01,"64":0.005,"65":0.015,"66":0.015,"67":0.01,"68":0.005,"71":0.005,"72":0.01,"73":0.005,"75":0.01,"76":0.005,"78":0.01,"80":0.005,"81":0.005,"83":0.01,"85":0.005,"86":0.01,"88":0.005,"93":0.005,"96":0.005,"104":0.005,"113":0.005,"128":0.005,"129":0.005,"132":0.005,"145":0.005,"149":0.005,"152":0.005,"160":0.005,"166":0.005,"217":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"10":0.005,"11":0.005,"12":0.005,"13":0.01,"16":0.02,"17":0.015,"18":0.03,"19":0.02,"20":0.025,"21":0.03,"22":0.015,"23":0.015,"24":0.065,"25":0.06,"26":0.03,"27":0.035,"28":0.05,"29":0.035,"30":0.05,"31":0.005,"32":0.045,"33":0.045,"34":0.03,"35":0.025,"36":0.02,"37":0.01,"38":0.02,"39":0.035,"40":0.03,"41":0.025,"42":0.01,"43":0.03,"44":0.015,"45":0.005,"46":0.01,"47":0.005,"48":0.01,"49":0.01,"50":0.005,"51":0.005,"52":0.01,"54":0.005,"57":0.005,"59":0.015,"61":0.005,"62":0.01,"64":0.005,"68":0.005,"73":0.005,"74":0.005,"79":0.005,"83":0.005,"85":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"10":0.005,"16":0.005,"18":0.01,"19":0.01,"20":0.005,"21":0.005,"22":0.005,"24":0.015,"25":0.02,"26":0.01,"28":0.005,"29":0.025,"30":0.015,"31":0.015,"32":0.025,"33":0.025,"34":0.02,"35":0.025,"36":0.015,"37":0.025,"38":0.035,"39":0.025,"40":0.02,"41":0.025,"42":0.01,"43":0.02,"44":0.005,"45":0.02,"46":0.025,"47":0.02,"48":0.01,"49":0.02,"50":0.025,"51":0.015,"52":0.035,"53":0.005,"54":0.01,"55":0.01,"56":0.03,"57":0.02,"58":0.005,"59":0.01,"60":0.03,"62":0.02,"63":0.015,"65":0.015,"66":0.005,"67":0.02,"68":0.01,"69":0.01,"72":0.005,"73":0.005,"74":0.01,"77":0.01,"78":0.005,"79":0.005,"80":0.01,"81":0.005,"82":0.005,"84":0.01,"85":0.005,"87":0.005,"89":0.005,"90":0.005,"92":0.01,"93":0.005,"94":0.005,"99":0.005,"100":0.005,"101":0.005,"106":0.005,"112":0.01,"113":0.005,"114":0.005,"119":0.005,"129":0.005,"135":0.005,"137":0.005,"140":0.005,"149":0.005,"169":0.005,"204":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"31":0.005,"35":0.005,"36":0.005,"37":0.005,"41":0.015,"42":0.025,"43":0.025,"44":0.055,"45":0.01,"46":0.045,"47":0.02,"48":0.035,"49":0.045,"50":0.04,"51":0.055,"52":0.035,"53":0.095,"54":0.05,"55":0.065,"56":0.035,"57":0.025,"58":0.03,"59":0.03,"60":0.06,"61":0.045,"62":0.045,"63":0.01,"64":0.005,"65":0.035,"66":0.01,"67":0.005,"68":0.015,"70":0.01,"72":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"10":0.005,"12":0.005,"13":0.005,"14":0.015,"15":0.02,"16":0.02,"17":0.075,"18":0.03,"19":0.05,"20":0.085,"21":0.045,"22":0.06,"23":0.08,"24":0.06,"25":0.075,"26":0.085,"27":0.06,"28":0.045,"29":0.035,"30":0.05,"31":0.025,"32":0.02,"33":0.02,"34":0.015,"36":0.005,"38":0.005,"42":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"6":0.005,"11":0.015,"12":0.025,"13":0.035,"14":0.03,"15":0.025,"16":0.02,"17":0.02,"18":0.04,"19":0.05,"20":0.06,"21":0.05,"22":0.075,"23":0.04,"24":0.075,"25":0.065,"26":0.075,"27":0.045,"28":0.05,"29":0.035,"30":0.03,"31":0.015,"32":0.025,"33":0.005,"34":0.015,"35":0.015,"36":0.02,"37":0.005,"38":0.015,"39":0.01,"42":0.005,"44":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1613692800000,"validUntil":1616284800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":3,"actual":1,"trainingCount":4640,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2021","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":2.8689,"mean":6.47,"median":5,"bias":5.47,"maeMean":5.47,"maeMedian":4,"low":1,"high":18,"coverage":true,"width":17,"pitLower":0.02,"pitUpper":0.07,"empiricalMass":0.05,"logScore":2.995732273553991},"rollingETAS":{"crps":1.9748499999999998,"mean":4.46,"median":4,"bias":3.46,"maeMean":3.46,"maeMedian":3,"low":0,"high":10,"coverage":true,"width":10,"pitLower":0.055,"pitUpper":0.12,"empiricalMass":0.065,"logScore":2.7333680090865},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":3.504025,"mean":7.005,"median":6,"bias":6.005,"maeMean":6.005,"maeMedian":5,"low":1,"high":15,"coverage":true,"width":14,"pitLower":0.02,"pitUpper":0.07,"empiricalMass":0.05,"logScore":2.995732273553991},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":4.449825,"mean":6.935,"median":7,"bias":5.935,"maeMean":5.935,"maeMedian":6,"low":3,"high":12,"coverage":false,"width":9,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.01,"empiricalMass":0.01,"logScore":4.605170185988091},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.8586750000000001,"mean":2.645,"median":2.5,"bias":1.645,"maeMean":1.645,"maeMedian":1.5,"low":0,"high":6,"coverage":true,"width":6,"pitLower":0.05,"pitUpper":0.285,"empiricalMass":0.235,"logScore":1.448169764837978},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.8396250000000001,"mean":2.605,"median":2,"bias":1.605,"maeMean":1.605,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":6,"coverage":true,"width":6,"pitLower":0.06,"pitUpper":0.27,"empiricalMass":0.21,"logScore":1.5606477482646683}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.02,"1":0.05,"2":0.1,"3":0.13,"4":0.14,"5":0.145,"6":0.08,"7":0.07,"8":0.04,"9":0.065,"10":0.03,"11":0.015,"12":0.015,"14":0.015,"15":0.02,"16":0.01,"18":0.005,"20":0.005,"21":0.005,"22":0.01,"24":0.005,"26":0.01,"29":0.005,"31":0.005,"32":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.055,"1":0.065,"2":0.16,"3":0.17,"4":0.125,"5":0.1,"6":0.105,"7":0.065,"8":0.05,"9":0.035,"10":0.03,"11":0.025,"12":0.005,"13":0.01},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.02,"1":0.05,"2":0.085,"3":0.055,"4":0.12,"5":0.125,"6":0.11,"7":0.07,"8":0.05,"9":0.1,"10":0.035,"11":0.03,"12":0.035,"13":0.03,"14":0.025,"15":0.025,"17":0.005,"19":0.005,"20":0.005,"25":0.005,"29":0.01,"31":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"1":0.01,"2":0.02,"3":0.05,"4":0.08,"5":0.175,"6":0.14,"7":0.14,"8":0.13,"9":0.085,"10":0.06,"11":0.055,"12":0.015,"13":0.03,"14":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.05,"1":0.235,"2":0.215,"3":0.23,"4":0.135,"5":0.075,"6":0.045,"7":0.015},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.06,"1":0.21,"2":0.26,"3":0.22,"4":0.125,"5":0.065,"6":0.04,"7":0.01,"8":0.01}}},{"issuedAt":1613692800000,"validUntil":1616284800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4640,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2021","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.20045000000000002,"mean":0.71,"median":0,"bias":0.71,"maeMean":0.71,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.595,"empiricalMass":0.595,"logScore":0.5191938734365074},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.16637500000000005,"mean":0.555,"median":0,"bias":0.555,"maeMean":0.555,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.615,"empiricalMass":0.615,"logScore":0.4861330111756192},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.28769999999999996,"mean":0.86,"median":0,"bias":0.86,"maeMean":0.86,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.515,"empiricalMass":0.515,"logScore":0.6635883783184009},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.3837,"mean":0.84,"median":1,"bias":0.84,"maeMean":0.84,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.415,"empiricalMass":0.415,"logScore":0.8794767587514388},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.07379999999999998,"mean":0.3,"median":0,"bias":0.3,"maeMean":0.3,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.73,"empiricalMass":0.73,"logScore":0.31471074483970024},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.08484999999999998,"mean":0.35,"median":0,"bias":0.35,"maeMean":0.35,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.715,"empiricalMass":0.715,"logScore":0.33547273628812946}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.595,"1":0.23,"2":0.11,"3":0.03,"4":0.02,"5":0.005,"6":0.005,"7":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.615,"1":0.255,"2":0.095,"3":0.03,"4":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.515,"1":0.28,"2":0.115,"3":0.045,"4":0.03,"5":0.01,"9":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.415,"1":0.385,"2":0.165,"3":0.02,"4":0.01,"5":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.73,"1":0.24,"2":0.03},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.715,"1":0.225,"2":0.055,"3":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1616284800000,"validUntil":1616371200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":2,"actual":1,"trainingCount":4658,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2021","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.27817499999999995,"mean":1.115,"median":1,"bias":0.11499999999999999,"maeMean":0.11499999999999999,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.43,"pitUpper":0.745,"empiricalMass":0.315,"logScore":1.155182640156504},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.34325000000000006,"mean":0.86,"median":0,"bias":-0.14,"maeMean":0.14,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.535,"pitUpper":0.775,"empiricalMass":0.24,"logScore":1.4271163556401458},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.26275000000000004,"mean":1.04,"median":1,"bias":0.040000000000000036,"maeMean":0.040000000000000036,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.44,"pitUpper":0.77,"empiricalMass":0.33,"logScore":1.1086626245216111},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.36035000000000006,"mean":1.7,"median":1.5,"bias":0.7,"maeMean":0.7,"maeMedian":0.5,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.18,"pitUpper":0.5,"empiricalMass":0.32,"logScore":1.1394342831883648},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.25350000000000006,"mean":0.72,"median":1,"bias":-0.28,"maeMean":0.28,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.475,"pitUpper":0.835,"empiricalMass":0.36,"logScore":1.0216512475319814},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.30037499999999995,"mean":0.845,"median":1,"bias":-0.15500000000000003,"maeMean":0.15500000000000003,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.485,"pitUpper":0.755,"empiricalMass":0.27,"logScore":1.3093333199837622}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.43,"1":0.315,"2":0.11,"3":0.075,"4":0.03,"5":0.015,"6":0.015,"7":0.01},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.535,"1":0.24,"2":0.155,"3":0.05,"4":0.005,"8":0.005,"10":0.01},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.44,"1":0.33,"2":0.125,"3":0.05,"4":0.02,"5":0.01,"6":0.01,"7":0.005,"8":0.005,"9":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.18,"1":0.32,"2":0.235,"3":0.18,"4":0.065,"5":0.01,"6":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.475,"1":0.36,"2":0.14,"3":0.02,"4":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.485,"1":0.27,"2":0.175,"3":0.055,"4":0.015}}},{"issuedAt":1616284800000,"validUntil":1616371200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":3,"actual":1,"trainingCount":4658,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2021","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.81945,"mean":0.12,"median":0,"bias":-0.88,"maeMean":0.88,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0.905,"pitUpper":0.98,"empiricalMass":0.075,"logScore":2.5902671654458267},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.748475,"mean":0.155,"median":0,"bias":-0.845,"maeMean":0.845,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0.865,"pitUpper":0.985,"empiricalMass":0.12,"logScore":2.120263536200091},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.83735,"mean":0.1,"median":0,"bias":-0.9,"maeMean":0.9,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0.915,"pitUpper":0.99,"empiricalMass":0.075,"logScore":2.5902671654458267},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.6007250000000001,"mean":0.235,"median":0,"bias":-0.765,"maeMean":0.765,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0.775,"pitUpper":0.99,"empiricalMass":0.215,"logScore":1.5371172508544744},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.846425,"mean":0.085,"median":0,"bias":-0.915,"maeMean":0.915,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0.92,"pitUpper":0.995,"empiricalMass":0.075,"logScore":2.5902671654458267},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.9216,"mean":0.04,"median":0,"bias":-0.96,"maeMean":0.96,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":false,"width":0,"pitLower":0.96,"pitUpper":1,"empiricalMass":0.04,"logScore":3.2188758248682006}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.905,"1":0.075,"2":0.015,"3":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.865,"1":0.12,"2":0.01,"3":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.915,"1":0.075,"2":0.005,"3":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.775,"1":0.215,"2":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.92,"1":0.075,"2":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.96,"1":0.04}}},{"issuedAt":1616284800000,"validUntil":1616371200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4658,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2021","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.0000999999999999994,"mean":0.01,"median":0,"bias":0.01,"maeMean":0.01,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.99,"empiricalMass":0.99,"logScore":0.01005033585350145},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.00040000000000000105,"mean":0.02,"median":0,"bias":0.02,"maeMean":0.02,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.98,"empiricalMass":0.98,"logScore":0.020202707317519466},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.00002499999999999985,"mean":0.005,"median":0,"bias":0.005,"maeMean":0.005,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.995,"empiricalMass":0.995,"logScore":0.005012541823544286},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.000899999999999998,"mean":0.03,"median":0,"bias":0.03,"maeMean":0.03,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.97,"empiricalMass":0.97,"logScore":0.030459207484708574},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.0000999999999999994,"mean":0.01,"median":0,"bias":0.01,"maeMean":0.01,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.99,"empiricalMass":0.99,"logScore":0.01005033585350145},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.0000999999999999994,"mean":0.01,"median":0,"bias":0.01,"maeMean":0.01,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.99,"empiricalMass":0.99,"logScore":0.01005033585350145}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.99,"1":0.01},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.98,"1":0.02},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.995,"1":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.97,"1":0.03},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.99,"1":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.99,"1":0.01}}},{"issuedAt":1616284800000,"validUntil":1616889600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":2,"actual":3,"trainingCount":4658,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2021","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":3.585625,"mean":9.495,"median":9,"bias":6.494999999999999,"maeMean":6.494999999999999,"maeMedian":6,"low":3,"high":19,"coverage":true,"width":16,"pitLower":0.04,"pitUpper":0.105,"empiricalMass":0.065,"logScore":2.7333680090865},"rollingETAS":{"crps":1.8081000000000005,"mean":6.78,"median":6,"bias":3.7800000000000002,"maeMean":3.7800000000000002,"maeMedian":3,"low":2,"high":15,"coverage":true,"width":13,"pitLower":0.135,"pitUpper":0.23,"empiricalMass":0.095,"logScore":2.353878387381596},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":3.0791000000000004,"mean":9.77,"median":8,"bias":6.77,"maeMean":6.77,"maeMedian":5,"low":1,"high":25,"coverage":true,"width":24,"pitLower":0.105,"pitUpper":0.175,"empiricalMass":0.07,"logScore":2.659260036932778},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":7.27175,"mean":12.24,"median":12,"bias":9.24,"maeMean":9.24,"maeMedian":9,"low":7,"high":18,"coverage":false,"width":11,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentPoisson":{"crps":1.3983999999999999,"mean":5.5,"median":5,"bias":2.5,"maeMean":2.5,"maeMedian":2,"low":2,"high":10,"coverage":true,"width":8,"pitLower":0.075,"pitUpper":0.2,"empiricalMass":0.125,"logScore":2.0794415416798357},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":1.22615,"mean":5.48,"median":5,"bias":2.4800000000000004,"maeMean":2.4800000000000004,"maeMedian":2,"low":1,"high":11,"coverage":true,"width":10,"pitLower":0.13,"pitUpper":0.32,"empiricalMass":0.19,"logScore":1.6607312068216509}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.005,"1":0.015,"2":0.02,"3":0.065,"4":0.075,"5":0.1,"6":0.045,"7":0.09,"8":0.075,"9":0.085,"10":0.065,"11":0.075,"12":0.06,"13":0.05,"14":0.04,"15":0.015,"16":0.02,"17":0.03,"18":0.015,"19":0.005,"20":0.01,"21":0.005,"22":0.005,"23":0.005,"25":0.005,"29":0.005,"34":0.005,"37":0.005,"40":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.005,"1":0.04,"2":0.09,"3":0.095,"4":0.14,"5":0.09,"6":0.075,"7":0.125,"8":0.075,"9":0.065,"10":0.045,"11":0.02,"12":0.045,"13":0.02,"14":0.005,"15":0.02,"16":0.01,"17":0.015,"18":0.005,"20":0.005,"25":0.005,"37":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.005,"1":0.055,"2":0.045,"3":0.07,"4":0.05,"5":0.065,"6":0.11,"7":0.095,"8":0.085,"9":0.08,"10":0.02,"11":0.07,"12":0.04,"13":0.045,"14":0.005,"15":0.005,"16":0.03,"17":0.005,"18":0.025,"19":0.005,"20":0.005,"21":0.01,"22":0.01,"23":0.01,"25":0.01,"26":0.005,"29":0.005,"30":0.005,"31":0.005,"37":0.01,"42":0.005,"56":0.005,"85":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"5":0.015,"6":0.03,"7":0.065,"8":0.045,"9":0.05,"10":0.085,"11":0.135,"12":0.14,"13":0.1,"14":0.08,"15":0.065,"16":0.105,"17":0.02,"18":0.025,"19":0.02,"20":0.005,"22":0.01,"28":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.005,"1":0.01,"2":0.06,"3":0.125,"4":0.17,"5":0.165,"6":0.155,"7":0.135,"8":0.085,"9":0.035,"10":0.025,"11":0.01,"12":0.005,"13":0.01,"14":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.01,"1":0.045,"2":0.075,"3":0.19,"4":0.1,"5":0.145,"6":0.105,"7":0.075,"8":0.085,"9":0.07,"10":0.045,"11":0.015,"12":0.015,"13":0.02,"14":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1616284800000,"validUntil":1616889600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":3,"actual":1,"trainingCount":4658,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2021","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.2800999999999999,"mean":1.14,"median":1,"bias":0.1399999999999999,"maeMean":0.1399999999999999,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.405,"pitUpper":0.695,"empiricalMass":0.29,"logScore":1.2378743560016174},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.2844749999999999,"mean":0.845,"median":1,"bias":-0.15500000000000003,"maeMean":0.15500000000000003,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.49,"pitUpper":0.81,"empiricalMass":0.32,"logScore":1.1394342831883648},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.31995000000000007,"mean":1.23,"median":1,"bias":0.22999999999999998,"maeMean":0.22999999999999998,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.445,"pitUpper":0.695,"empiricalMass":0.25,"logScore":1.3862943611198906},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.3369,"mean":1.59,"median":1,"bias":0.5900000000000001,"maeMean":0.5900000000000001,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.215,"pitUpper":0.52,"empiricalMass":0.305,"logScore":1.1874435023747254},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.26965,"mean":0.63,"median":0,"bias":-0.37,"maeMean":0.37,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.505,"pitUpper":0.88,"empiricalMass":0.375,"logScore":0.9808292530117262},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.333975,"mean":0.675,"median":0,"bias":-0.32499999999999996,"maeMean":0.32499999999999996,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.555,"pitUpper":0.85,"empiricalMass":0.295,"logScore":1.2207799226423173}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.405,"1":0.29,"2":0.165,"3":0.09,"4":0.025,"5":0.01,"6":0.005,"7":0.01},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.49,"1":0.32,"2":0.11,"3":0.04,"4":0.025,"5":0.01,"7":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.445,"1":0.25,"2":0.16,"3":0.075,"4":0.03,"5":0.02,"6":0.005,"9":0.005,"10":0.005,"18":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.215,"1":0.305,"2":0.245,"3":0.165,"4":0.06,"5":0.005,"7":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.505,"1":0.375,"2":0.105,"3":0.015},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.555,"1":0.295,"2":0.095,"3":0.035,"4":0.015,"5":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1616284800000,"validUntil":1616889600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4658,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2021","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.007450000000000012,"mean":0.1,"median":0,"bias":0.1,"maeMean":0.1,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.915,"empiricalMass":0.915,"logScore":0.0888312137066157},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.011050000000000004,"mean":0.11,"median":0,"bias":0.11,"maeMean":0.11,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.895,"empiricalMass":0.895,"logScore":0.11093156070728166},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.014650000000000024,"mean":0.14,"median":0,"bias":0.14,"maeMean":0.14,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.88,"empiricalMass":0.88,"logScore":0.12783337150988489},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.03845000000000001,"mean":0.22,"median":0,"bias":0.22,"maeMean":0.22,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.805,"empiricalMass":0.805,"logScore":0.21691300156357363},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.008125000000000007,"mean":0.095,"median":0,"bias":0.095,"maeMean":0.095,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.91,"empiricalMass":0.91,"logScore":0.09431067947124129},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.010099999999999998,"mean":0.11,"median":0,"bias":0.11,"maeMean":0.11,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.9,"empiricalMass":0.9,"logScore":0.10536051565782628}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.915,"1":0.07,"2":0.015},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.895,"1":0.1,"2":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.88,"1":0.105,"2":0.01,"3":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.805,"1":0.175,"2":0.015,"3":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.91,"1":0.085,"2":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.9,"1":0.09,"2":0.01}}},{"issuedAt":1616284800000,"validUntil":1618876800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":2,"actual":23,"trainingCount":4658,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2021","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":13.73185,"mean":48.97,"median":43,"bias":25.97,"maeMean":25.97,"maeMedian":20,"low":21,"high":92,"coverage":true,"width":71,"pitLower":0.065,"pitUpper":0.065,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"rollingETAS":{"crps":5.010925,"mean":33.985,"median":31,"bias":10.985,"maeMean":10.985,"maeMedian":8,"low":17,"high":65,"coverage":true,"width":48,"pitLower":0.245,"pitUpper":0.265,"empiricalMass":0.02,"logScore":3.912023005428146},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":15.058874999999999,"mean":51.185,"median":44,"bias":28.185000000000002,"maeMean":28.185000000000002,"maeMedian":21,"low":19,"high":102,"coverage":true,"width":83,"pitLower":0.08,"pitUpper":0.085,"empiricalMass":0.005,"logScore":5.298317366548036},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":25.523425,"mean":52.055,"median":52,"bias":29.055,"maeMean":29.055,"maeMedian":29,"low":42,"high":63,"coverage":false,"width":21,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentPoisson":{"crps":1.1303750000000004,"mean":22.655,"median":23,"bias":-0.34499999999999886,"maeMean":0.34499999999999886,"maeMedian":0,"low":15,"high":30,"coverage":true,"width":15,"pitLower":0.47,"pitUpper":0.57,"empiricalMass":0.1,"logScore":2.3025850929940455},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":1.6368750000000003,"mean":21.895,"median":21.5,"bias":-1.1050000000000004,"maeMean":1.1050000000000004,"maeMedian":1.5,"low":12,"high":34,"coverage":true,"width":22,"pitLower":0.575,"pitUpper":0.645,"empiricalMass":0.07,"logScore":2.659260036932778}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"15":0.005,"17":0.01,"18":0.005,"19":0.01,"20":0.01,"21":0.01,"22":0.015,"24":0.03,"25":0.01,"26":0.025,"27":0.005,"28":0.01,"29":0.035,"30":0.015,"31":0.03,"32":0.025,"33":0.03,"34":0.025,"35":0.02,"36":0.025,"37":0.03,"38":0.03,"39":0.005,"40":0.035,"41":0.02,"42":0.02,"43":0.025,"44":0.015,"45":0.02,"46":0.05,"47":0.015,"48":0.01,"49":0.015,"50":0.015,"51":0.015,"52":0.01,"54":0.02,"55":0.01,"56":0.015,"58":0.015,"59":0.015,"60":0.02,"61":0.02,"62":0.015,"63":0.005,"65":0.015,"66":0.015,"68":0.005,"72":0.01,"73":0.005,"75":0.01,"76":0.015,"77":0.005,"79":0.01,"80":0.01,"81":0.005,"85":0.01,"86":0.005,"87":0.005,"89":0.005,"92":0.01,"102":0.005,"104":0.005,"112":0.005,"113":0.005,"118":0.005,"137":0.005,"148":0.005,"169":0.005,"199":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"9":0.005,"12":0.005,"13":0.005,"14":0.005,"16":0.02,"17":0.025,"18":0.035,"19":0.03,"20":0.06,"21":0.02,"22":0.035,"23":0.02,"24":0.025,"25":0.03,"26":0.045,"27":0.05,"28":0.03,"29":0.02,"30":0.03,"31":0.04,"32":0.025,"33":0.025,"34":0.045,"35":0.015,"36":0.02,"37":0.04,"38":0.01,"39":0.02,"40":0.015,"41":0.01,"42":0.025,"43":0.015,"44":0.005,"45":0.01,"46":0.01,"47":0.01,"48":0.005,"49":0.02,"50":0.01,"53":0.015,"54":0.01,"55":0.005,"58":0.01,"59":0.005,"61":0.01,"62":0.015,"64":0.005,"65":0.005,"66":0.005,"69":0.01,"70":0.005,"72":0.005,"73":0.005,"77":0.01,"79":0.005,"105":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"14":0.005,"17":0.02,"18":0.02,"19":0.005,"20":0.005,"21":0.015,"22":0.01,"23":0.005,"24":0.015,"25":0.015,"26":0.015,"27":0.02,"28":0.005,"29":0.02,"30":0.02,"31":0.01,"32":0.015,"33":0.025,"34":0.015,"35":0.035,"36":0.01,"37":0.015,"38":0.01,"39":0.015,"40":0.05,"41":0.04,"42":0.02,"43":0.035,"44":0.03,"45":0.025,"47":0.01,"48":0.02,"49":0.02,"50":0.025,"51":0.005,"52":0.02,"53":0.025,"54":0.01,"55":0.005,"56":0.005,"57":0.015,"61":0.035,"62":0.01,"63":0.02,"64":0.02,"66":0.025,"68":0.005,"69":0.005,"70":0.015,"73":0.015,"74":0.01,"76":0.005,"77":0.005,"80":0.01,"83":0.01,"87":0.005,"88":0.01,"89":0.01,"90":0.005,"95":0.005,"98":0.005,"99":0.005,"100":0.005,"102":0.005,"103":0.005,"113":0.01,"119":0.005,"121":0.005,"138":0.005,"145":0.005,"148":0.005,"158":0.005,"174":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"34":0.005,"38":0.005,"39":0.005,"40":0.005,"41":0.02,"42":0.01,"43":0.04,"44":0.035,"45":0.045,"46":0.045,"47":0.02,"48":0.05,"49":0.04,"50":0.05,"51":0.09,"52":0.075,"53":0.08,"54":0.055,"55":0.035,"56":0.06,"57":0.025,"58":0.055,"59":0.03,"60":0.02,"61":0.03,"63":0.025,"64":0.01,"65":0.025,"66":0.005,"67":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"10":0.005,"12":0.005,"13":0.005,"14":0.025,"15":0.045,"16":0.015,"17":0.035,"18":0.07,"19":0.045,"20":0.09,"21":0.065,"22":0.065,"23":0.1,"24":0.08,"25":0.055,"26":0.07,"27":0.065,"28":0.055,"29":0.045,"30":0.025,"31":0.005,"32":0.01,"33":0.01,"34":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"8":0.005,"10":0.015,"11":0.02,"12":0.025,"13":0.04,"14":0.03,"15":0.04,"16":0.045,"17":0.07,"18":0.035,"19":0.025,"20":0.07,"21":0.08,"22":0.075,"23":0.07,"24":0.045,"25":0.045,"26":0.04,"27":0.015,"28":0.06,"29":0.025,"30":0.03,"31":0.025,"32":0.01,"34":0.01,"35":0.01,"36":0.005,"37":0.005,"38":0.01,"39":0.015,"44":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1616284800000,"validUntil":1618876800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":3,"actual":2,"trainingCount":4658,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2021","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":1.9206999999999996,"mean":5.93,"median":5,"bias":3.9299999999999997,"maeMean":3.9299999999999997,"maeMedian":3,"low":1,"high":14,"coverage":true,"width":13,"pitLower":0.09,"pitUpper":0.19,"empiricalMass":0.1,"logScore":2.3025850929940455},"rollingETAS":{"crps":1.272275,"mean":4.735,"median":4,"bias":2.7350000000000003,"maeMean":2.7350000000000003,"maeMedian":2,"low":1,"high":11,"coverage":true,"width":10,"pitLower":0.15,"pitUpper":0.295,"empiricalMass":0.145,"logScore":1.9310215365615626},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":2.0796249999999996,"mean":6.255,"median":5,"bias":4.255,"maeMean":4.255,"maeMedian":3,"low":1,"high":16,"coverage":true,"width":15,"pitLower":0.08,"pitUpper":0.185,"empiricalMass":0.105,"logScore":2.2537949288246137},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":3.720675,"mean":7.115,"median":7,"bias":5.115,"maeMean":5.115,"maeMedian":5,"low":3,"high":11,"coverage":false,"width":8,"pitLower":0.005,"pitUpper":0.01,"empiricalMass":0.005,"logScore":5.298317366548036},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.307925,"mean":2.305,"median":2,"bias":0.30500000000000016,"maeMean":0.30500000000000016,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.315,"pitUpper":0.605,"empiricalMass":0.29,"logScore":1.2378743560016174},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.26705,"mean":2.2,"median":2,"bias":0.20000000000000018,"maeMean":0.20000000000000018,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.31,"pitUpper":0.645,"empiricalMass":0.335,"logScore":1.0936247471570706}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.035,"1":0.055,"2":0.1,"3":0.12,"4":0.145,"5":0.095,"6":0.12,"7":0.095,"8":0.025,"9":0.05,"10":0.03,"11":0.03,"12":0.02,"13":0.015,"14":0.015,"15":0.005,"16":0.01,"17":0.005,"19":0.01,"20":0.005,"21":0.01,"26":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.015,"1":0.135,"2":0.145,"3":0.125,"4":0.14,"5":0.12,"6":0.1,"7":0.05,"8":0.02,"9":0.04,"10":0.045,"11":0.025,"12":0.01,"13":0.005,"15":0.01,"16":0.01,"17":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.005,"1":0.075,"2":0.105,"3":0.115,"4":0.13,"5":0.105,"6":0.095,"7":0.075,"8":0.04,"9":0.075,"10":0.03,"11":0.04,"12":0.03,"13":0.01,"14":0.01,"15":0.005,"16":0.015,"17":0.015,"19":0.005,"20":0.005,"23":0.01,"25":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"1":0.005,"2":0.005,"3":0.045,"4":0.075,"5":0.16,"6":0.175,"7":0.135,"8":0.11,"9":0.08,"10":0.11,"11":0.06,"12":0.02,"13":0.01,"14":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.095,"1":0.22,"2":0.29,"3":0.21,"4":0.095,"5":0.055,"6":0.025,"7":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.09,"1":0.22,"2":0.335,"3":0.17,"4":0.135,"5":0.04,"6":0.01}}},{"issuedAt":1616284800000,"validUntil":1618876800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4658,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2021","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.20512500000000006,"mean":0.685,"median":0,"bias":0.685,"maeMean":0.685,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.58,"empiricalMass":0.58,"logScore":0.5447271754416722},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.20024999999999993,"mean":0.69,"median":0,"bias":0.69,"maeMean":0.69,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.595,"empiricalMass":0.595,"logScore":0.5191938734365074},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.24092499999999994,"mean":0.745,"median":0,"bias":0.745,"maeMean":0.745,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.545,"empiricalMass":0.545,"logScore":0.6069694843188929},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.41795,"mean":0.89,"median":1,"bias":0.89,"maeMean":0.89,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.39,"empiricalMass":0.39,"logScore":0.941608539858445},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.07930000000000001,"mean":0.31,"median":0,"bias":0.31,"maeMean":0.31,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.72,"empiricalMass":0.72,"logScore":0.3285040669720361},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.09464999999999996,"mean":0.35,"median":0,"bias":0.35,"maeMean":0.35,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.695,"empiricalMass":0.695,"logScore":0.363843433417345}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.58,"1":0.27,"2":0.08,"3":0.035,"4":0.025,"5":0.01},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.595,"1":0.235,"2":0.09,"3":0.05,"4":0.025,"5":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.545,"1":0.285,"2":0.11,"3":0.025,"4":0.025,"5":0.005,"8":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.39,"1":0.405,"2":0.145,"3":0.045,"4":0.015},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.72,"1":0.25,"2":0.03},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.695,"1":0.265,"2":0.035,"3":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1618876800000,"validUntil":1618963200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":2,"actual":1,"trainingCount":4681,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2021","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.23962499999999998,"mean":1.285,"median":1,"bias":0.2849999999999999,"maeMean":0.2849999999999999,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.345,"pitUpper":0.705,"empiricalMass":0.36,"logScore":1.0216512475319814},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.28064999999999996,"mean":0.94,"median":1,"bias":-0.06000000000000005,"maeMean":0.06000000000000005,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.455,"pitUpper":0.75,"empiricalMass":0.295,"logScore":1.2207799226423173},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.3659500000000001,"mean":1.68,"median":1,"bias":0.6799999999999999,"maeMean":0.6799999999999999,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.335,"pitUpper":0.6,"empiricalMass":0.265,"logScore":1.3280254529959148},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.36924999999999997,"mean":1.7,"median":2,"bias":0.7,"maeMean":0.7,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.16,"pitUpper":0.47,"empiricalMass":0.31,"logScore":1.171182981502945},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.2507,"mean":0.85,"median":1,"bias":-0.15000000000000002,"maeMean":0.15000000000000002,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.45,"pitUpper":0.79,"empiricalMass":0.34,"logScore":1.0788096613719298},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.295725,"mean":0.725,"median":0,"bias":-0.275,"maeMean":0.275,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.52,"pitUpper":0.855,"empiricalMass":0.335,"logScore":1.0936247471570706}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.345,"1":0.36,"2":0.14,"3":0.065,"4":0.065,"5":0.005,"6":0.005,"7":0.005,"8":0.005,"12":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.455,"1":0.295,"2":0.15,"3":0.07,"4":0.015,"5":0.015},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.335,"1":0.265,"2":0.15,"3":0.105,"4":0.065,"5":0.03,"6":0.025,"7":0.01,"8":0.005,"12":0.005,"14":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.16,"1":0.31,"2":0.29,"3":0.17,"4":0.055,"5":0.01,"6":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.45,"1":0.34,"2":0.15,"3":0.04,"4":0.01,"5":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.52,"1":0.335,"2":0.085,"3":0.035,"4":0.02,"7":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1618876800000,"validUntil":1618963200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":3,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4681,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2021","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.013800000000000007,"mean":0.16,"median":0,"bias":0.16,"maeMean":0.16,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.89,"empiricalMass":0.89,"logScore":0.11653381625595151},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.008324999999999999,"mean":0.105,"median":0,"bias":0.105,"maeMean":0.105,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.91,"empiricalMass":0.91,"logScore":0.09431067947124129},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.03569999999999998,"mean":0.24,"median":0,"bias":0.24,"maeMean":0.24,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.815,"empiricalMass":0.815,"logScore":0.2045671657412744},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.050025000000000014,"mean":0.265,"median":0,"bias":0.265,"maeMean":0.265,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.78,"empiricalMass":0.78,"logScore":0.2484613592984996},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.006625000000000006,"mean":0.095,"median":0,"bias":0.095,"maeMean":0.095,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.92,"empiricalMass":0.92,"logScore":0.08338160893905101},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.006025000000000003,"mean":0.095,"median":0,"bias":0.095,"maeMean":0.095,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.925,"empiricalMass":0.925,"logScore":0.0779615414697118}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.89,"1":0.07,"2":0.03,"3":0.01},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.91,"1":0.075,"2":0.015},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.815,"1":0.15,"2":0.02,"3":0.01,"4":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.78,"1":0.18,"2":0.035,"3":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.92,"1":0.065,"2":0.015},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.925,"1":0.055,"2":0.02}}},{"issuedAt":1618876800000,"validUntil":1618963200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4681,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2021","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.0002249999999999995,"mean":0.015,"median":0,"bias":0.015,"maeMean":0.015,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.985,"empiricalMass":0.985,"logScore":0.015113637810048184},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.0000999999999999994,"mean":0.01,"median":0,"bias":0.01,"maeMean":0.01,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.99,"empiricalMass":0.99,"logScore":0.01005033585350145},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.0012250000000000039,"mean":0.035,"median":0,"bias":0.035,"maeMean":0.035,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.965,"empiricalMass":0.965,"logScore":0.03562717764315116},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.0002249999999999995,"mean":0.015,"median":0,"bias":0.015,"maeMean":0.015,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.985,"empiricalMass":0.985,"logScore":0.015113637810048184},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.0000999999999999994,"mean":0.01,"median":0,"bias":0.01,"maeMean":0.01,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.99,"empiricalMass":0.99,"logScore":0.01005033585350145},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0,"mean":0,"median":0,"bias":0,"maeMean":0,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":1,"empiricalMass":1,"logScore":0}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.985,"1":0.015},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.99,"1":0.01},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.965,"1":0.035},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.985,"1":0.015},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.99,"1":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":1}}},{"issuedAt":1618876800000,"validUntil":1619481600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":2,"actual":3,"trainingCount":4681,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2021","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":4.942924999999999,"mean":12.225,"median":9,"bias":9.225,"maeMean":9.225,"maeMedian":6,"low":3,"high":28,"coverage":true,"width":25,"pitLower":0.01,"pitUpper":0.05,"empiricalMass":0.04,"logScore":3.2188758248682006},"rollingETAS":{"crps":2.1728750000000003,"mean":7.665,"median":6,"bias":4.665,"maeMean":4.665,"maeMedian":3,"low":2,"high":18,"coverage":true,"width":16,"pitLower":0.06,"pitUpper":0.18,"empiricalMass":0.12,"logScore":2.120263536200091},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":4.797175,"mean":11.835,"median":10,"bias":8.835,"maeMean":8.835,"maeMedian":7,"low":3,"high":30,"coverage":true,"width":27,"pitLower":0.035,"pitUpper":0.07,"empiricalMass":0.035,"logScore":3.3524072174927233},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":7.070274999999999,"mean":12.155,"median":12,"bias":9.155,"maeMean":9.155,"maeMedian":9,"low":6,"high":19,"coverage":false,"width":13,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentPoisson":{"crps":1.4324,"mean":5.53,"median":5,"bias":2.5300000000000002,"maeMean":2.5300000000000002,"maeMedian":2,"low":2,"high":9,"coverage":true,"width":7,"pitLower":0.08,"pitUpper":0.185,"empiricalMass":0.105,"logScore":2.2537949288246137},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":1.3194000000000001,"mean":5.52,"median":5,"bias":2.5199999999999996,"maeMean":2.5199999999999996,"maeMedian":2,"low":1,"high":11,"coverage":true,"width":10,"pitLower":0.185,"pitUpper":0.285,"empiricalMass":0.1,"logScore":2.3025850929940455}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"2":0.01,"3":0.04,"4":0.04,"5":0.075,"6":0.065,"7":0.105,"8":0.08,"9":0.095,"10":0.055,"11":0.05,"12":0.04,"13":0.03,"14":0.04,"15":0.03,"16":0.03,"17":0.04,"18":0.02,"19":0.005,"20":0.025,"21":0.02,"22":0.005,"24":0.01,"25":0.02,"27":0.01,"28":0.015,"29":0.005,"30":0.005,"32":0.005,"34":0.005,"38":0.005,"40":0.005,"54":0.005,"56":0.005,"62":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"1":0.04,"2":0.02,"3":0.12,"4":0.12,"5":0.14,"6":0.095,"7":0.065,"8":0.07,"9":0.07,"10":0.035,"11":0.06,"12":0.035,"13":0.025,"14":0.015,"15":0.005,"16":0.01,"17":0.01,"18":0.015,"19":0.005,"20":0.005,"21":0.015,"22":0.01,"23":0.005,"32":0.005,"37":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"1":0.015,"2":0.02,"3":0.035,"4":0.045,"5":0.045,"6":0.08,"7":0.13,"8":0.075,"9":0.04,"10":0.075,"11":0.04,"12":0.05,"13":0.04,"14":0.035,"15":0.04,"16":0.02,"17":0.03,"18":0.05,"19":0.015,"20":0.005,"22":0.015,"23":0.025,"25":0.005,"26":0.005,"27":0.01,"30":0.005,"31":0.01,"36":0.005,"37":0.015,"38":0.015,"42":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"4":0.005,"5":0.015,"6":0.035,"7":0.035,"8":0.08,"9":0.085,"10":0.08,"11":0.11,"12":0.125,"13":0.125,"14":0.055,"15":0.06,"16":0.07,"17":0.035,"18":0.02,"19":0.025,"20":0.02,"21":0.01,"22":0.005,"25":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.005,"1":0.01,"2":0.065,"3":0.105,"4":0.195,"5":0.165,"6":0.125,"7":0.12,"8":0.09,"9":0.075,"10":0.02,"11":0.02,"13":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.035,"1":0.045,"2":0.105,"3":0.1,"4":0.15,"5":0.125,"6":0.095,"7":0.09,"8":0.04,"9":0.09,"10":0.05,"11":0.035,"12":0.03,"15":0.005,"18":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1618876800000,"validUntil":1619481600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":3,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4681,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2021","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.6653500000000001,"mean":1.6,"median":1,"bias":1.6,"maeMean":1.6,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":6,"coverage":true,"width":6,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.325,"empiricalMass":0.325,"logScore":1.1239300966523995},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.36197499999999994,"mean":0.945,"median":1,"bias":0.945,"maeMean":0.945,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.47,"empiricalMass":0.47,"logScore":0.7550225842780328},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.6472749999999999,"mean":1.565,"median":1,"bias":1.565,"maeMean":1.565,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.345,"empiricalMass":0.345,"logScore":1.0642108619507773},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.8522500000000001,"mean":1.52,"median":1,"bias":1.52,"maeMean":1.52,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.23,"empiricalMass":0.23,"logScore":1.4696759700589417},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.20180000000000003,"mean":0.54,"median":0,"bias":0.54,"maeMean":0.54,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.56,"empiricalMass":0.56,"logScore":0.579818495252942},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.15605000000000002,"mean":0.53,"median":0,"bias":0.53,"maeMean":0.53,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.62,"empiricalMass":0.62,"logScore":0.4780358009429998}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.325,"1":0.295,"2":0.18,"3":0.075,"4":0.06,"5":0.01,"6":0.015,"7":0.02,"8":0.005,"9":0.005,"11":0.005,"12":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.47,"1":0.26,"2":0.185,"3":0.06,"4":0.015,"7":0.005,"8":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.345,"1":0.285,"2":0.145,"3":0.08,"4":0.06,"5":0.04,"6":0.03,"7":0.005,"9":0.005,"10":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.23,"1":0.31,"2":0.255,"3":0.13,"4":0.065,"5":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.56,"1":0.35,"2":0.08,"3":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.62,"1":0.28,"2":0.06,"3":0.035,"5":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1618876800000,"validUntil":1619481600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4681,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2021","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.024675000000000002,"mean":0.185,"median":0,"bias":0.185,"maeMean":0.185,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.845,"empiricalMass":0.845,"logScore":0.16841865162496325},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.0126,"mean":0.14,"median":0,"bias":0.14,"maeMean":0.14,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.89,"empiricalMass":0.89,"logScore":0.11653381625595151},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.021675,"mean":0.175,"median":0,"bias":0.175,"maeMean":0.175,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.855,"empiricalMass":0.855,"logScore":0.15665381004537685},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.027450000000000002,"mean":0.18,"median":0,"bias":0.18,"maeMean":0.18,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.835,"empiricalMass":0.835,"logScore":0.18032355413128162},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.008125000000000007,"mean":0.095,"median":0,"bias":0.095,"maeMean":0.095,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.91,"empiricalMass":0.91,"logScore":0.09431067947124129},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.004900000000000002,"mean":0.07,"median":0,"bias":0.07,"maeMean":0.07,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.93,"empiricalMass":0.93,"logScore":0.07257069283483537}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.845,"1":0.13,"2":0.02,"3":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.89,"1":0.09,"2":0.01,"3":0.01},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.855,"1":0.12,"2":0.02,"3":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.835,"1":0.15,"2":0.015},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.91,"1":0.085,"2":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.93,"1":0.07}}},{"issuedAt":1618876800000,"validUntil":1621468800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":2,"actual":11,"trainingCount":4681,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2021","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":29.23665,"mean":53.17,"median":47,"bias":42.17,"maeMean":42.17,"maeMedian":36,"low":23,"high":96,"coverage":false,"width":73,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"rollingETAS":{"crps":16.0604,"mean":34.35,"median":32,"bias":23.35,"maeMean":23.35,"maeMedian":21,"low":16,"high":56,"coverage":false,"width":40,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.01,"empiricalMass":0.01,"logScore":4.605170185988091},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":28.841350000000006,"mean":51.59,"median":47,"bias":40.59,"maeMean":40.59,"maeMedian":36,"low":25,"high":92,"coverage":false,"width":67,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":37.968399999999995,"mean":52.98,"median":53,"bias":41.98,"maeMean":41.98,"maeMedian":42,"low":42,"high":65,"coverage":false,"width":23,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentPoisson":{"crps":9.9436,"mean":23.81,"median":23,"bias":12.809999999999999,"maeMean":12.809999999999999,"maeMedian":12,"low":16,"high":33,"coverage":false,"width":17,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.01,"empiricalMass":0.01,"logScore":4.605170185988091},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":7.851825,"mean":22.395,"median":22,"bias":11.395,"maeMean":11.395,"maeMedian":11,"low":13,"high":34,"coverage":false,"width":21,"pitLower":0.015,"pitUpper":0.025,"empiricalMass":0.01,"logScore":4.605170185988091}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"14":0.005,"15":0.005,"20":0.005,"21":0.015,"22":0.01,"23":0.01,"25":0.03,"26":0.01,"27":0.01,"28":0.005,"29":0.015,"30":0.025,"31":0.03,"32":0.03,"33":0.015,"34":0.025,"35":0.01,"36":0.03,"37":0.02,"38":0.02,"39":0.015,"40":0.01,"41":0.035,"42":0.01,"43":0.025,"44":0.01,"45":0.01,"46":0.035,"47":0.03,"48":0.005,"49":0.025,"50":0.015,"51":0.015,"53":0.01,"54":0.015,"55":0.015,"56":0.015,"57":0.015,"58":0.01,"59":0.015,"60":0.005,"61":0.005,"62":0.01,"63":0.03,"64":0.005,"65":0.01,"66":0.005,"67":0.02,"68":0.02,"69":0.005,"70":0.015,"72":0.02,"73":0.01,"74":0.005,"75":0.01,"76":0.015,"77":0.005,"80":0.01,"81":0.005,"82":0.01,"83":0.015,"84":0.005,"86":0.015,"89":0.005,"90":0.005,"93":0.01,"94":0.01,"96":0.005,"100":0.005,"103":0.01,"104":0.005,"106":0.01,"108":0.005,"109":0.005,"124":0.005,"179":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"11":0.01,"13":0.01,"15":0.015,"16":0.015,"17":0.025,"18":0.02,"20":0.025,"21":0.025,"22":0.03,"23":0.035,"24":0.01,"25":0.03,"26":0.045,"27":0.05,"28":0.025,"29":0.025,"30":0.04,"31":0.035,"32":0.045,"33":0.025,"34":0.03,"35":0.04,"36":0.04,"37":0.035,"38":0.03,"39":0.015,"40":0.02,"41":0.015,"42":0.02,"43":0.005,"44":0.02,"45":0.01,"46":0.02,"47":0.025,"48":0.01,"49":0.01,"50":0.005,"52":0.015,"53":0.01,"54":0.015,"55":0.01,"56":0.01,"57":0.01,"58":0.005,"66":0.005,"67":0.005,"73":0.005,"83":0.005,"88":0.005,"91":0.005,"92":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"16":0.005,"19":0.005,"21":0.005,"22":0.02,"23":0.005,"24":0.005,"25":0.01,"26":0.02,"27":0.015,"28":0.005,"29":0.01,"30":0.01,"31":0.03,"32":0.02,"33":0.02,"34":0.03,"35":0.04,"36":0.015,"37":0.02,"38":0.025,"39":0.02,"40":0.025,"41":0.03,"42":0.025,"43":0.015,"44":0.02,"45":0.02,"46":0.025,"47":0.035,"48":0.03,"49":0.015,"51":0.03,"52":0.01,"53":0.01,"54":0.01,"55":0.015,"56":0.025,"58":0.01,"59":0.015,"60":0.01,"61":0.015,"62":0.035,"63":0.005,"64":0.015,"65":0.02,"66":0.005,"67":0.005,"68":0.005,"70":0.01,"72":0.015,"74":0.01,"75":0.005,"76":0.01,"77":0.005,"78":0.01,"79":0.02,"81":0.005,"82":0.005,"83":0.01,"87":0.01,"89":0.005,"90":0.005,"92":0.01,"93":0.005,"95":0.005,"96":0.005,"97":0.005,"106":0.005,"117":0.005,"118":0.005,"122":0.005,"129":0.005,"145":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"36":0.005,"37":0.01,"38":0.005,"40":0.01,"41":0.01,"42":0.025,"43":0.03,"44":0.04,"45":0.03,"46":0.04,"47":0.025,"48":0.04,"49":0.035,"50":0.03,"51":0.075,"52":0.085,"53":0.045,"54":0.045,"55":0.045,"56":0.08,"57":0.045,"58":0.03,"59":0.045,"60":0.03,"61":0.015,"62":0.025,"63":0.015,"64":0.025,"65":0.02,"66":0.005,"67":0.015,"68":0.005,"71":0.01,"72":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"11":0.01,"12":0.005,"13":0.005,"14":0.005,"15":0.01,"16":0.03,"17":0.02,"18":0.045,"19":0.065,"20":0.075,"21":0.1,"22":0.05,"23":0.09,"24":0.075,"25":0.07,"26":0.05,"27":0.03,"28":0.07,"29":0.045,"30":0.045,"31":0.045,"32":0.005,"33":0.025,"34":0.005,"35":0.015,"36":0.005,"38":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"8":0.005,"9":0.005,"10":0.005,"11":0.01,"13":0.04,"14":0.05,"15":0.025,"16":0.045,"17":0.055,"18":0.055,"19":0.045,"20":0.075,"21":0.055,"22":0.085,"23":0.065,"24":0.03,"25":0.045,"26":0.045,"27":0.05,"28":0.03,"29":0.035,"30":0.03,"31":0.035,"32":0.005,"33":0.015,"34":0.015,"35":0.02,"37":0.01,"38":0.005,"39":0.005,"42":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1618876800000,"validUntil":1621468800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":3,"actual":1,"trainingCount":4681,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2021","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":3.1393000000000004,"mean":6.48,"median":6,"bias":5.48,"maeMean":5.48,"maeMedian":5,"low":1,"high":15,"coverage":true,"width":14,"pitLower":0.025,"pitUpper":0.105,"empiricalMass":0.08,"logScore":2.5257286443082556},"rollingETAS":{"crps":1.9753249999999998,"mean":4.605,"median":4,"bias":3.6050000000000004,"maeMean":3.6050000000000004,"maeMedian":3,"low":1,"high":10,"coverage":true,"width":9,"pitLower":0.035,"pitUpper":0.1,"empiricalMass":0.065,"logScore":2.7333680090865},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":3.2943749999999996,"mean":6.565,"median":6,"bias":5.565,"maeMean":5.565,"maeMedian":5,"low":1,"high":16,"coverage":true,"width":15,"pitLower":0.015,"pitUpper":0.09,"empiricalMass":0.075,"logScore":2.5902671654458267},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":4.848425000000001,"mean":7.355,"median":7,"bias":6.355,"maeMean":6.355,"maeMedian":6,"low":3,"high":12,"coverage":false,"width":9,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.005,"empiricalMass":0.005,"logScore":5.298317366548036},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.6116750000000001,"mean":2.265,"median":2,"bias":1.2650000000000001,"maeMean":1.2650000000000001,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.08,"pitUpper":0.35,"empiricalMass":0.27,"logScore":1.3093333199837622},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.8066,"mean":2.54,"median":2,"bias":1.54,"maeMean":1.54,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.09,"pitUpper":0.28,"empiricalMass":0.19,"logScore":1.6607312068216509}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.025,"1":0.08,"2":0.085,"3":0.065,"4":0.13,"5":0.085,"6":0.105,"7":0.1,"8":0.075,"9":0.045,"10":0.045,"11":0.015,"12":0.03,"13":0.02,"14":0.03,"15":0.025,"16":0.005,"17":0.015,"18":0.005,"19":0.01,"22":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.035,"1":0.065,"2":0.19,"3":0.165,"4":0.14,"5":0.08,"6":0.11,"7":0.06,"8":0.045,"9":0.03,"10":0.035,"11":0.02,"12":0.005,"14":0.005,"18":0.005,"20":0.005,"21":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.015,"1":0.075,"2":0.06,"3":0.075,"4":0.155,"5":0.075,"6":0.12,"7":0.09,"8":0.06,"9":0.085,"10":0.035,"11":0.045,"12":0.03,"13":0.01,"14":0.01,"15":0.005,"16":0.02,"17":0.005,"18":0.01,"19":0.01,"22":0.005,"24":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"1":0.005,"2":0.015,"3":0.055,"4":0.085,"5":0.085,"6":0.14,"7":0.155,"8":0.14,"9":0.085,"10":0.115,"11":0.055,"12":0.045,"13":0.005,"14":0.01,"16":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.08,"1":0.27,"2":0.27,"3":0.215,"4":0.07,"5":0.05,"6":0.035,"7":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.09,"1":0.19,"2":0.285,"3":0.175,"4":0.115,"5":0.105,"6":0.015,"7":0.02,"8":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1618876800000,"validUntil":1621468800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":4,"actual":1,"trainingCount":4681,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2021","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.29045,"mean":0.73,"median":0,"bias":-0.27,"maeMean":0.27,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.51,"pitUpper":0.835,"empiricalMass":0.325,"logScore":1.1239300966523995},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.38469999999999993,"mean":0.61,"median":0,"bias":-0.39,"maeMean":0.39,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.605,"pitUpper":0.875,"empiricalMass":0.27,"logScore":1.3093333199837622},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.30535,"mean":0.73,"median":0,"bias":-0.27,"maeMean":0.27,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.52,"pitUpper":0.825,"empiricalMass":0.305,"logScore":1.1874435023747254},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.21710000000000002,"mean":0.82,"median":1,"bias":-0.18000000000000005,"maeMean":0.18000000000000005,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.425,"pitUpper":0.815,"empiricalMass":0.39,"logScore":0.941608539858445},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.5651249999999999,"mean":0.315,"median":0,"bias":-0.685,"maeMean":0.685,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0.75,"pitUpper":0.95,"empiricalMass":0.2,"logScore":1.6094379124341003},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.505425,"mean":0.335,"median":0,"bias":-0.665,"maeMean":0.665,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0.71,"pitUpper":0.965,"empiricalMass":0.255,"logScore":1.3664917338237108}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.51,"1":0.325,"2":0.115,"3":0.025,"4":0.025},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.605,"1":0.27,"2":0.08,"3":0.02,"4":0.005,"5":0.02},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.52,"1":0.305,"2":0.11,"3":0.055,"4":0.01},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.425,"1":0.39,"2":0.14,"3":0.03,"4":0.015},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.75,"1":0.2,"2":0.04,"3":0.005,"4":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.71,"1":0.255,"2":0.025,"3":0.01}}},{"issuedAt":1621468800000,"validUntil":1621555200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":2,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4692,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2021","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.3294999999999999,"mean":1.13,"median":0.5,"bias":1.13,"maeMean":1.13,"maeMedian":0.5,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.5,"empiricalMass":0.5,"logScore":0.6931471805599453},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.30935,"mean":0.98,"median":0,"bias":0.98,"maeMean":0.98,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.51,"empiricalMass":0.51,"logScore":0.6733445532637656},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.34304999999999997,"mean":0.96,"median":1,"bias":0.96,"maeMean":0.96,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.485,"empiricalMass":0.485,"logScore":0.7236063880446539},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":1.03415,"mean":1.73,"median":2,"bias":1.73,"maeMean":1.73,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.155,"empiricalMass":0.155,"logScore":1.8643301620628905},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.25725000000000003,"mean":0.67,"median":0,"bias":0.67,"maeMean":0.67,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.515,"empiricalMass":0.515,"logScore":0.6635883783184009},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.292475,"mean":0.745,"median":1,"bias":0.745,"maeMean":0.745,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.495,"empiricalMass":0.495,"logScore":0.7031975164134467}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.5,"1":0.275,"2":0.095,"3":0.045,"4":0.035,"5":0.025,"6":0.005,"8":0.005,"9":0.005,"15":0.01},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.51,"1":0.265,"2":0.11,"3":0.055,"4":0.025,"5":0.02,"6":0.005,"9":0.005,"11":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.485,"1":0.26,"2":0.16,"3":0.04,"4":0.03,"5":0.015,"6":0.005,"7":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.155,"1":0.34,"2":0.27,"3":0.14,"4":0.075,"5":0.005,"7":0.015},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.515,"1":0.34,"2":0.115,"3":0.02,"4":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.495,"1":0.315,"2":0.155,"3":0.025,"4":0.005,"5":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1621468800000,"validUntil":1621555200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":3,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4692,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2021","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.012250000000000011,"mean":0.17,"median":0,"bias":0.17,"maeMean":0.17,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.895,"empiricalMass":0.895,"logScore":0.11093156070728166},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.018875000000000003,"mean":0.165,"median":0,"bias":0.165,"maeMean":0.165,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.865,"empiricalMass":0.865,"logScore":0.14502577205025774},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.007275000000000004,"mean":0.095,"median":0,"bias":0.095,"maeMean":0.095,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.915,"empiricalMass":0.915,"logScore":0.0888312137066157},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.05105000000000001,"mean":0.25,"median":0,"bias":0.25,"maeMean":0.25,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.775,"empiricalMass":0.775,"logScore":0.25489224962879004},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.0016250000000000014,"mean":0.045,"median":0,"bias":0.045,"maeMean":0.045,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.96,"empiricalMass":0.96,"logScore":0.040821994520255166},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.005624999999999991,"mean":0.075,"median":0,"bias":0.075,"maeMean":0.075,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.925,"empiricalMass":0.925,"logScore":0.0779615414697118}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.895,"1":0.075,"2":0.02,"5":0.005,"6":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.865,"1":0.11,"2":0.02,"3":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.915,"1":0.08,"3":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.775,"1":0.205,"2":0.015,"3":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.96,"1":0.035,"2":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.925,"1":0.075}}},{"issuedAt":1621468800000,"validUntil":1621555200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4692,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2021","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.0006499999999999978,"mean":0.03,"median":0,"bias":0.03,"maeMean":0.03,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.975,"empiricalMass":0.975,"logScore":0.025317807984289897},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.00042500000000000177,"mean":0.025,"median":0,"bias":0.025,"maeMean":0.025,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.98,"empiricalMass":0.98,"logScore":0.020202707317519466},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.0000999999999999994,"mean":0.01,"median":0,"bias":0.01,"maeMean":0.01,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.99,"empiricalMass":0.99,"logScore":0.01005033585350145},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.00040000000000000105,"mean":0.02,"median":0,"bias":0.02,"maeMean":0.02,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.98,"empiricalMass":0.98,"logScore":0.020202707317519466},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.0002249999999999995,"mean":0.015,"median":0,"bias":0.015,"maeMean":0.015,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.985,"empiricalMass":0.985,"logScore":0.015113637810048184},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.0006250000000000006,"mean":0.025,"median":0,"bias":0.025,"maeMean":0.025,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.975,"empiricalMass":0.975,"logScore":0.025317807984289897}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.975,"1":0.02,"2":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.98,"1":0.015,"2":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.99,"1":0.01},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.98,"1":0.02},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.985,"1":0.015},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.975,"1":0.025}}},{"issuedAt":1621468800000,"validUntil":1622073600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":2,"actual":1,"trainingCount":4692,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2021","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":4.95925,"mean":9.99,"median":7.5,"bias":8.99,"maeMean":8.99,"maeMedian":6.5,"low":2,"high":24,"coverage":false,"width":22,"pitLower":0.005,"pitUpper":0.025,"empiricalMass":0.02,"logScore":3.912023005428146},"rollingETAS":{"crps":3.596775,"mean":7.025,"median":6,"bias":6.025,"maeMean":6.025,"maeMedian":5,"low":2,"high":15,"coverage":false,"width":13,"pitLower":0.005,"pitUpper":0.045,"empiricalMass":0.04,"logScore":3.2188758248682006},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":5.54425,"mean":10.65,"median":8,"bias":9.65,"maeMean":9.65,"maeMedian":7,"low":2,"high":24,"coverage":false,"width":22,"pitLower":0.01,"pitUpper":0.025,"empiricalMass":0.015,"logScore":4.199705077879927},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":9.484774999999999,"mean":12.325,"median":12,"bias":11.325,"maeMean":11.325,"maeMedian":11,"low":7,"high":18,"coverage":false,"width":11,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentPoisson":{"crps":2.92915,"mean":5.15,"median":5,"bias":4.15,"maeMean":4.15,"maeMedian":4,"low":2,"high":9,"coverage":false,"width":7,"pitLower":0.015,"pitUpper":0.035,"empiricalMass":0.02,"logScore":3.912023005428146},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":2.30635,"mean":4.71,"median":4,"bias":3.71,"maeMean":3.71,"maeMedian":3,"low":1,"high":9,"coverage":true,"width":8,"pitLower":0.035,"pitUpper":0.085,"empiricalMass":0.05,"logScore":2.995732273553991}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.005,"1":0.02,"2":0.06,"3":0.07,"4":0.075,"5":0.075,"6":0.095,"7":0.1,"8":0.07,"9":0.065,"10":0.04,"11":0.055,"12":0.025,"13":0.03,"14":0.025,"15":0.015,"16":0.01,"17":0.03,"18":0.02,"19":0.01,"20":0.02,"21":0.01,"22":0.005,"23":0.015,"24":0.01,"25":0.01,"27":0.005,"29":0.005,"30":0.005,"31":0.005,"38":0.005,"52":0.005,"94":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.005,"1":0.04,"2":0.075,"3":0.085,"4":0.11,"5":0.135,"6":0.135,"7":0.085,"8":0.04,"9":0.065,"10":0.045,"11":0.03,"12":0.03,"13":0.03,"14":0.03,"15":0.015,"17":0.005,"18":0.005,"19":0.005,"21":0.01,"22":0.005,"23":0.005,"27":0.005,"28":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.01,"1":0.015,"2":0.025,"3":0.045,"4":0.09,"5":0.09,"6":0.065,"7":0.09,"8":0.085,"9":0.06,"10":0.07,"11":0.05,"12":0.04,"13":0.055,"14":0.015,"15":0.03,"16":0.04,"17":0.01,"19":0.015,"20":0.005,"21":0.005,"22":0.01,"23":0.005,"24":0.025,"25":0.005,"26":0.005,"28":0.005,"36":0.005,"40":0.005,"43":0.005,"47":0.005,"50":0.005,"55":0.005,"62":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"4":0.005,"5":0.005,"6":0.015,"7":0.045,"8":0.06,"9":0.06,"10":0.125,"11":0.11,"12":0.08,"13":0.13,"14":0.115,"15":0.075,"16":0.075,"17":0.04,"18":0.025,"19":0.03,"22":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.015,"1":0.02,"2":0.11,"3":0.1,"4":0.13,"5":0.165,"6":0.2,"7":0.11,"8":0.09,"9":0.035,"10":0.015,"11":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.035,"1":0.05,"2":0.125,"3":0.15,"4":0.175,"5":0.095,"6":0.14,"7":0.09,"8":0.07,"9":0.03,"10":0.01,"12":0.015,"13":0.01,"15":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1621468800000,"validUntil":1622073600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":3,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4692,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2021","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.40900000000000003,"mean":1.23,"median":1,"bias":1.23,"maeMean":1.23,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.45,"empiricalMass":0.45,"logScore":0.7985076962177716},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.31057500000000005,"mean":0.905,"median":0,"bias":0.905,"maeMean":0.905,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.51,"empiricalMass":0.51,"logScore":0.6733445532637656},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.6407,"mean":1.53,"median":1,"bias":1.53,"maeMean":1.53,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.325,"empiricalMass":0.325,"logScore":1.1239300966523995},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.9245500000000001,"mean":1.61,"median":1,"bias":1.61,"maeMean":1.61,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.18,"empiricalMass":0.18,"logScore":1.7147984280919266},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.16035,"mean":0.47,"median":0,"bias":0.47,"maeMean":0.47,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.605,"empiricalMass":0.605,"logScore":0.5025268209512956},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.17602500000000004,"mean":0.545,"median":0,"bias":0.545,"maeMean":0.545,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.6,"empiricalMass":0.6,"logScore":0.5108256237659907}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.45,"1":0.28,"2":0.135,"3":0.045,"4":0.025,"5":0.02,"6":0.02,"7":0.015,"10":0.005,"14":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.51,"1":0.255,"2":0.12,"3":0.075,"4":0.02,"5":0.015,"6":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.325,"1":0.32,"2":0.15,"3":0.105,"4":0.04,"5":0.02,"6":0.01,"7":0.01,"9":0.015,"14":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.18,"1":0.375,"2":0.235,"3":0.115,"4":0.065,"5":0.02,"6":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.605,"1":0.33,"2":0.055,"3":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.6,"1":0.275,"2":0.105,"3":0.02}}},{"issuedAt":1621468800000,"validUntil":1622073600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4692,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2021","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.012424999999999992,"mean":0.145,"median":0,"bias":0.145,"maeMean":0.145,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.89,"empiricalMass":0.89,"logScore":0.11653381625595151},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.007450000000000012,"mean":0.1,"median":0,"bias":0.1,"maeMean":0.1,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.915,"empiricalMass":0.915,"logScore":0.0888312137066157},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.018674999999999997,"mean":0.165,"median":0,"bias":0.165,"maeMean":0.165,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.865,"empiricalMass":0.865,"logScore":0.14502577205025774},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.04039999999999999,"mean":0.22,"median":0,"bias":0.22,"maeMean":0.22,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.8,"empiricalMass":0.8,"logScore":0.2231435513142097},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.013225,"mean":0.115,"median":0,"bias":0.115,"maeMean":0.115,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.885,"empiricalMass":0.885,"logScore":0.12216763397420753},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.006425,"mean":0.085,"median":0,"bias":0.085,"maeMean":0.085,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.92,"empiricalMass":0.92,"logScore":0.08338160893905101}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.89,"1":0.095,"2":0.01,"6":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.915,"1":0.07,"2":0.015},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.865,"1":0.115,"2":0.015,"4":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.8,"1":0.18,"2":0.02},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.885,"1":0.115},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.92,"1":0.075,"2":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1621468800000,"validUntil":1624060800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":2,"actual":14,"trainingCount":4692,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2021","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":24.152575000000002,"mean":52.045,"median":45.5,"bias":38.045,"maeMean":38.045,"maeMedian":31.5,"low":22,"high":108,"coverage":false,"width":86,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"rollingETAS":{"crps":12.337150000000001,"mean":33.46,"median":31,"bias":19.46,"maeMean":19.46,"maeMedian":17,"low":19,"high":62,"coverage":false,"width":43,"pitLower":0.005,"pitUpper":0.02,"empiricalMass":0.015,"logScore":4.199705077879927},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":22.990975,"mean":48.265,"median":45,"bias":34.265,"maeMean":34.265,"maeMedian":31,"low":23,"high":88,"coverage":false,"width":65,"pitLower":0.005,"pitUpper":0.01,"empiricalMass":0.005,"logScore":5.298317366548036},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":33.65155,"mean":51.8,"median":51.5,"bias":37.8,"maeMean":37.8,"maeMedian":37.5,"low":40,"high":65,"coverage":false,"width":25,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentPoisson":{"crps":5.8326,"mean":22.22,"median":22,"bias":8.219999999999999,"maeMean":8.219999999999999,"maeMedian":8,"low":15,"high":29,"coverage":false,"width":14,"pitLower":0.03,"pitUpper":0.04,"empiricalMass":0.01,"logScore":4.605170185988091},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":5.231275000000001,"mean":22.725,"median":22,"bias":8.725000000000001,"maeMean":8.725000000000001,"maeMedian":8,"low":11,"high":37,"coverage":true,"width":26,"pitLower":0.09,"pitUpper":0.1,"empiricalMass":0.01,"logScore":4.605170185988091}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"16":0.005,"20":0.02,"21":0.01,"22":0.015,"23":0.015,"24":0.01,"25":0.01,"26":0.01,"27":0.025,"28":0.025,"29":0.005,"30":0.03,"31":0.01,"32":0.025,"33":0.04,"34":0.035,"35":0.01,"36":0.03,"37":0.035,"38":0.015,"39":0.045,"40":0.015,"41":0.005,"42":0.01,"43":0.015,"45":0.03,"46":0.01,"47":0.04,"48":0.02,"49":0.01,"50":0.015,"51":0.02,"52":0.01,"53":0.02,"54":0.005,"55":0.01,"56":0.015,"57":0.03,"58":0.015,"59":0.015,"60":0.005,"61":0.01,"62":0.005,"63":0.005,"65":0.005,"66":0.01,"67":0.015,"69":0.01,"70":0.005,"71":0.005,"72":0.005,"73":0.01,"74":0.01,"75":0.01,"76":0.01,"77":0.015,"78":0.005,"80":0.01,"82":0.005,"85":0.005,"86":0.005,"88":0.005,"89":0.01,"91":0.005,"99":0.005,"101":0.01,"102":0.005,"107":0.005,"108":0.005,"110":0.005,"112":0.005,"116":0.005,"124":0.005,"130":0.005,"132":0.005,"135":0.005,"146":0.005,"157":0.005,"160":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"12":0.005,"14":0.015,"16":0.005,"18":0.01,"19":0.025,"20":0.045,"21":0.065,"22":0.065,"23":0.04,"24":0.015,"25":0.04,"26":0.03,"27":0.025,"28":0.05,"29":0.02,"30":0.03,"31":0.04,"32":0.065,"33":0.025,"34":0.01,"35":0.025,"36":0.025,"37":0.045,"38":0.015,"39":0.03,"40":0.035,"41":0.01,"42":0.01,"43":0.015,"44":0.005,"45":0.005,"47":0.01,"48":0.005,"49":0.015,"50":0.015,"51":0.01,"53":0.005,"54":0.005,"55":0.015,"60":0.005,"61":0.01,"62":0.015,"64":0.005,"65":0.01,"66":0.005,"69":0.01,"78":0.005,"82":0.005,"93":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"10":0.005,"14":0.005,"15":0.005,"16":0.015,"18":0.005,"19":0.005,"20":0.005,"23":0.015,"24":0.025,"26":0.03,"27":0.03,"28":0.015,"29":0.02,"30":0.03,"31":0.015,"32":0.02,"33":0.015,"34":0.02,"35":0.01,"36":0.02,"37":0.01,"38":0.025,"39":0.025,"40":0.03,"41":0.005,"42":0.035,"43":0.025,"44":0.03,"45":0.03,"46":0.01,"47":0.02,"48":0.01,"49":0.03,"50":0.02,"51":0.015,"52":0.04,"53":0.025,"54":0.015,"55":0.01,"56":0.015,"57":0.005,"58":0.01,"59":0.01,"60":0.01,"61":0.01,"62":0.005,"63":0.005,"64":0.01,"65":0.035,"66":0.005,"67":0.005,"68":0.01,"69":0.01,"72":0.015,"73":0.005,"74":0.01,"76":0.005,"77":0.01,"78":0.005,"81":0.015,"82":0.005,"84":0.005,"87":0.005,"88":0.005,"89":0.005,"90":0.01,"93":0.01,"105":0.005,"111":0.005,"112":0.005,"125":0.005,"140":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"30":0.005,"36":0.005,"37":0.005,"38":0.015,"39":0.005,"40":0.025,"41":0.02,"42":0.02,"43":0.04,"44":0.015,"45":0.02,"46":0.05,"47":0.055,"48":0.04,"49":0.05,"50":0.065,"51":0.065,"52":0.09,"53":0.04,"54":0.05,"55":0.055,"56":0.025,"57":0.03,"58":0.04,"59":0.025,"60":0.04,"61":0.025,"62":0.005,"63":0.01,"64":0.01,"65":0.01,"66":0.005,"67":0.005,"68":0.005,"69":0.005,"71":0.005,"72":0.01,"73":0.005,"77":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"8":0.005,"9":0.01,"13":0.015,"14":0.01,"15":0.02,"16":0.03,"17":0.075,"18":0.04,"19":0.07,"20":0.065,"21":0.11,"22":0.065,"23":0.1,"24":0.06,"25":0.08,"26":0.07,"27":0.055,"28":0.04,"29":0.035,"30":0.01,"31":0.01,"32":0.02,"36":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"8":0.015,"9":0.015,"10":0.005,"11":0.025,"12":0.02,"13":0.01,"14":0.01,"15":0.045,"16":0.025,"17":0.09,"18":0.04,"19":0.06,"20":0.075,"21":0.05,"22":0.04,"23":0.025,"24":0.05,"25":0.08,"26":0.05,"27":0.035,"28":0.03,"29":0.035,"30":0.035,"31":0.025,"32":0.03,"33":0.005,"34":0.005,"36":0.01,"37":0.03,"39":0.005,"41":0.005,"42":0.005,"44":0.01,"45":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1621468800000,"validUntil":1624060800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":3,"actual":1,"trainingCount":4692,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2021","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":3.03045,"mean":6.47,"median":5.5,"bias":5.47,"maeMean":5.47,"maeMedian":4.5,"low":1,"high":16,"coverage":true,"width":15,"pitLower":0.015,"pitUpper":0.08,"empiricalMass":0.065,"logScore":2.7333680090865},"rollingETAS":{"crps":1.9798,"mean":4.53,"median":4,"bias":3.5300000000000002,"maeMean":3.5300000000000002,"maeMedian":3,"low":1,"high":10,"coverage":true,"width":9,"pitLower":0.045,"pitUpper":0.155,"empiricalMass":0.11,"logScore":2.2072749131897207},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":2.7298,"mean":5.67,"median":5,"bias":4.67,"maeMean":4.67,"maeMedian":4,"low":1,"high":12,"coverage":true,"width":11,"pitLower":0.035,"pitUpper":0.095,"empiricalMass":0.06,"logScore":2.8134107167600364},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":4.58005,"mean":7.02,"median":7,"bias":6.02,"maeMean":6.02,"maeMedian":6,"low":3,"high":12,"coverage":false,"width":9,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.01,"empiricalMass":0.01,"logScore":4.605170185988091},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.597825,"mean":2.205,"median":2,"bias":1.205,"maeMean":1.205,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.105,"pitUpper":0.36,"empiricalMass":0.255,"logScore":1.3664917338237108},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.63785,"mean":2.23,"median":2,"bias":1.23,"maeMean":1.23,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.12,"pitUpper":0.345,"empiricalMass":0.225,"logScore":1.491654876777717}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.015,"1":0.065,"2":0.115,"3":0.1,"4":0.115,"5":0.09,"6":0.1,"7":0.08,"8":0.09,"9":0.03,"10":0.045,"11":0.02,"12":0.005,"13":0.03,"14":0.015,"15":0.03,"16":0.01,"18":0.005,"19":0.025,"20":0.005,"21":0.01},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.045,"1":0.11,"2":0.105,"3":0.165,"4":0.155,"5":0.095,"6":0.09,"7":0.06,"8":0.065,"9":0.045,"10":0.04,"11":0.01,"13":0.005,"15":0.005,"17":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.035,"1":0.06,"2":0.105,"3":0.1,"4":0.145,"5":0.115,"6":0.08,"7":0.085,"8":0.095,"9":0.04,"10":0.045,"11":0.02,"12":0.025,"13":0.005,"14":0.015,"15":0.015,"16":0.005,"20":0.01},"expandingPoisson":{"1":0.01,"2":0.03,"3":0.025,"4":0.1,"5":0.125,"6":0.135,"7":0.16,"8":0.155,"9":0.12,"10":0.05,"11":0.035,"12":0.02,"13":0.015,"14":0.02},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.105,"1":0.255,"2":0.255,"3":0.235,"4":0.08,"5":0.035,"6":0.02,"7":0.005,"8":0.005,"9":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.12,"1":0.225,"2":0.265,"3":0.2,"4":0.12,"5":0.035,"6":0.025,"7":0.01}}},{"issuedAt":1621468800000,"validUntil":1624060800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4692,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2021","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.24309999999999998,"mean":0.75,"median":0,"bias":0.75,"maeMean":0.75,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.545,"empiricalMass":0.545,"logScore":0.6069694843188929},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.20087500000000003,"mean":0.655,"median":0,"bias":0.655,"maeMean":0.655,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.585,"empiricalMass":0.585,"logScore":0.5361434317502807},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.21682500000000005,"mean":0.685,"median":0,"bias":0.685,"maeMean":0.685,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.57,"empiricalMass":0.57,"logScore":0.5621189181535413},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.41702500000000003,"mean":0.885,"median":1,"bias":0.885,"maeMean":0.885,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.39,"empiricalMass":0.39,"logScore":0.941608539858445},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.11427500000000002,"mean":0.385,"median":0,"bias":0.385,"maeMean":0.385,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.665,"empiricalMass":0.665,"logScore":0.4079682383262829},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.08202499999999996,"mean":0.345,"median":0,"bias":0.345,"maeMean":0.345,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.72,"empiricalMass":0.72,"logScore":0.3285040669720361}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.545,"1":0.29,"2":0.08,"3":0.045,"4":0.035,"5":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.585,"1":0.26,"2":0.09,"3":0.045,"4":0.02},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.57,"1":0.26,"2":0.12,"3":0.03,"4":0.01,"5":0.005,"6":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.39,"1":0.41,"2":0.13,"3":0.065,"4":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.665,"1":0.29,"2":0.04,"3":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.72,"1":0.22,"2":0.055,"3":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1624060800000,"validUntil":1624147200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":2,"actual":1,"trainingCount":4706,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2021","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.3126749999999999,"mean":1.045,"median":1,"bias":0.04499999999999993,"maeMean":0.04499999999999993,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.48,"pitUpper":0.745,"empiricalMass":0.265,"logScore":1.3280254529959148},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.29790000000000005,"mean":0.92,"median":1,"bias":-0.07999999999999996,"maeMean":0.07999999999999996,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.495,"pitUpper":0.805,"empiricalMass":0.31,"logScore":1.171182981502945},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.2980999999999999,"mean":0.99,"median":1,"bias":-0.010000000000000009,"maeMean":0.010000000000000009,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.485,"pitUpper":0.78,"empiricalMass":0.295,"logScore":1.2207799226423173},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.32445,"mean":1.67,"median":1,"bias":0.6699999999999999,"maeMean":0.6699999999999999,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.17,"pitUpper":0.515,"empiricalMass":0.345,"logScore":1.0642108619507773},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.32585,"mean":0.66,"median":0,"bias":-0.33999999999999997,"maeMean":0.33999999999999997,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.545,"pitUpper":0.835,"empiricalMass":0.29,"logScore":1.2378743560016174},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.3903,"mean":0.63,"median":0,"bias":-0.37,"maeMean":0.37,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.605,"pitUpper":0.865,"empiricalMass":0.26,"logScore":1.3470736479666092}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.48,"1":0.265,"2":0.15,"3":0.045,"4":0.02,"5":0.015,"6":0.01,"7":0.005,"8":0.005,"11":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.495,"1":0.31,"2":0.095,"3":0.04,"4":0.035,"5":0.005,"6":0.005,"7":0.015},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.485,"1":0.295,"2":0.125,"3":0.045,"4":0.01,"5":0.01,"6":0.015,"7":0.005,"9":0.005,"10":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.17,"1":0.345,"2":0.26,"3":0.135,"4":0.05,"5":0.04},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.545,"1":0.29,"2":0.125,"3":0.04},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.605,"1":0.26,"2":0.06,"3":0.055,"4":0.015,"5":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1624060800000,"validUntil":1624147200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":3,"actual":1,"trainingCount":4706,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2021","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.7658750000000001,"mean":0.145,"median":0,"bias":-0.855,"maeMean":0.855,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0.875,"pitUpper":0.985,"empiricalMass":0.11,"logScore":2.2072749131897207},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.8016500000000001,"mean":0.13,"median":0,"bias":-0.87,"maeMean":0.87,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0.895,"pitUpper":0.975,"empiricalMass":0.08,"logScore":2.5257286443082556},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.847425,"mean":0.125,"median":0,"bias":-0.875,"maeMean":0.875,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0.92,"pitUpper":0.975,"empiricalMass":0.055,"logScore":2.900422093749666},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.6085,"mean":0.23,"median":0,"bias":-0.77,"maeMean":0.77,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0.78,"pitUpper":0.99,"empiricalMass":0.21,"logScore":1.5606477482646683},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.912025,"mean":0.045,"median":0,"bias":-0.955,"maeMean":0.955,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":false,"width":0,"pitLower":0.955,"pitUpper":1,"empiricalMass":0.045,"logScore":3.101092789211817},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.8653,"mean":0.09,"median":0,"bias":-0.91,"maeMean":0.91,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0.93,"pitUpper":0.98,"empiricalMass":0.05,"logScore":2.995732273553991}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.875,"1":0.11,"2":0.01,"3":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.895,"1":0.08,"2":0.025},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.92,"1":0.055,"2":0.005,"3":0.02},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.78,"1":0.21,"2":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.955,"1":0.045},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.93,"1":0.05,"2":0.02}}},{"issuedAt":1624060800000,"validUntil":1624147200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4706,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2021","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.0002249999999999995,"mean":0.015,"median":0,"bias":0.015,"maeMean":0.015,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.985,"empiricalMass":0.985,"logScore":0.015113637810048184},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.0006250000000000006,"mean":0.025,"median":0,"bias":0.025,"maeMean":0.025,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.975,"empiricalMass":0.975,"logScore":0.025317807984289897},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.0006250000000000006,"mean":0.025,"median":0,"bias":0.025,"maeMean":0.025,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.975,"empiricalMass":0.975,"logScore":0.025317807984289897},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.0000999999999999994,"mean":0.01,"median":0,"bias":0.01,"maeMean":0.01,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.99,"empiricalMass":0.99,"logScore":0.01005033585350145},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.000899999999999998,"mean":0.03,"median":0,"bias":0.03,"maeMean":0.03,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.97,"empiricalMass":0.97,"logScore":0.030459207484708574},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.0002249999999999995,"mean":0.015,"median":0,"bias":0.015,"maeMean":0.015,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.985,"empiricalMass":0.985,"logScore":0.015113637810048184}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.985,"1":0.015},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.975,"1":0.025},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.975,"1":0.025},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.99,"1":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.97,"1":0.03},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.985,"1":0.015}}},{"issuedAt":1624060800000,"validUntil":1624665600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":2,"actual":16,"trainingCount":4706,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2021","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":5.8527249999999995,"mean":8.765,"median":7,"bias":-7.234999999999999,"maeMean":7.234999999999999,"maeMedian":9,"low":1,"high":26,"coverage":true,"width":25,"pitLower":0.875,"pitUpper":0.885,"empiricalMass":0.01,"logScore":4.605170185988091},"rollingETAS":{"crps":7.16705,"mean":7.01,"median":6,"bias":-8.99,"maeMean":8.99,"maeMedian":10,"low":1,"high":17,"coverage":true,"width":16,"pitLower":0.94,"pitUpper":0.945,"empiricalMass":0.005,"logScore":5.298317366548036},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":4.4941,"mean":10.39,"median":8,"bias":-5.609999999999999,"maeMean":5.609999999999999,"maeMedian":8,"low":2,"high":26,"coverage":true,"width":24,"pitLower":0.81,"pitUpper":0.825,"empiricalMass":0.015,"logScore":4.199705077879927},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":2.5627750000000002,"mean":12.175,"median":12,"bias":-3.8249999999999993,"maeMean":3.8249999999999993,"maeMedian":4,"low":6,"high":19,"coverage":true,"width":13,"pitLower":0.84,"pitUpper":0.885,"empiricalMass":0.045,"logScore":3.101092789211817},"recentPoisson":{"crps":9.806925,"mean":4.925,"median":5,"bias":-11.075,"maeMean":11.075,"maeMedian":11,"low":2,"high":9,"coverage":false,"width":7,"pitLower":1,"pitUpper":1,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":9.280899999999999,"mean":5.09,"median":5,"bias":-10.91,"maeMean":10.91,"maeMedian":11,"low":1,"high":10,"coverage":false,"width":9,"pitLower":0.99,"pitUpper":0.995,"empiricalMass":0.005,"logScore":5.298317366548036}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.015,"1":0.04,"2":0.085,"3":0.075,"4":0.07,"5":0.065,"6":0.105,"7":0.085,"8":0.085,"9":0.06,"10":0.065,"11":0.05,"12":0.04,"13":0.015,"14":0.005,"15":0.015,"16":0.01,"17":0.015,"18":0.015,"20":0.005,"22":0.005,"23":0.01,"24":0.005,"26":0.01,"27":0.005,"28":0.01,"30":0.005,"32":0.01,"33":0.01,"35":0.005,"43":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.02,"1":0.03,"2":0.085,"3":0.115,"4":0.135,"5":0.095,"6":0.1,"7":0.085,"8":0.07,"9":0.04,"10":0.045,"11":0.04,"12":0.035,"13":0.01,"14":0.02,"15":0.015,"16":0.005,"17":0.01,"19":0.01,"22":0.01,"25":0.005,"26":0.005,"30":0.01,"35":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.01,"1":0.025,"2":0.055,"3":0.07,"4":0.05,"5":0.075,"6":0.115,"7":0.06,"8":0.055,"9":0.06,"10":0.045,"11":0.065,"12":0.045,"13":0.025,"14":0.035,"15":0.02,"16":0.015,"17":0.025,"18":0.02,"19":0.025,"20":0.005,"21":0.01,"22":0.015,"23":0.01,"25":0.005,"26":0.015,"27":0.005,"29":0.01,"31":0.005,"34":0.005,"41":0.005,"42":0.005,"49":0.005,"53":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"4":0.005,"5":0.03,"6":0.015,"7":0.03,"8":0.035,"9":0.085,"10":0.12,"11":0.165,"12":0.09,"13":0.115,"14":0.1,"15":0.05,"16":0.045,"17":0.035,"18":0.025,"19":0.015,"20":0.02,"22":0.005,"23":0.01,"26":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.01,"1":0.025,"2":0.105,"3":0.145,"4":0.175,"5":0.195,"6":0.105,"7":0.1,"8":0.065,"9":0.04,"10":0.03,"14":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.025,"1":0.065,"2":0.085,"3":0.155,"4":0.16,"5":0.13,"6":0.12,"7":0.08,"8":0.055,"9":0.04,"10":0.035,"11":0.015,"12":0.01,"13":0.005,"15":0.01,"16":0.005,"18":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1624060800000,"validUntil":1624665600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":3,"actual":2,"trainingCount":4706,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2021","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.8403249999999999,"mean":1.045,"median":1,"bias":-0.9550000000000001,"maeMean":0.9550000000000001,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.755,"pitUpper":0.875,"empiricalMass":0.12,"logScore":2.120263536200091},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.798875,"mean":0.975,"median":1,"bias":-1.025,"maeMean":1.025,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.735,"pitUpper":0.9,"empiricalMass":0.165,"logScore":1.8018098050815563},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.6467,"mean":1.42,"median":1,"bias":-0.5800000000000001,"maeMean":0.5800000000000001,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.675,"pitUpper":0.82,"empiricalMass":0.145,"logScore":1.9310215365615626},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.3524249999999999,"mean":1.565,"median":1,"bias":-0.43500000000000005,"maeMean":0.43500000000000005,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.515,"pitUpper":0.795,"empiricalMass":0.28,"logScore":1.2729656758128873},"recentPoisson":{"crps":1.041975,"mean":0.635,"median":0,"bias":-1.365,"maeMean":1.365,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.875,"pitUpper":0.975,"empiricalMass":0.1,"logScore":2.3025850929940455},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":1.1648,"mean":0.56,"median":0,"bias":-1.44,"maeMean":1.44,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.875,"pitUpper":0.955,"empiricalMass":0.08,"logScore":2.5257286443082556}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.495,"1":0.26,"2":0.12,"3":0.045,"4":0.03,"5":0.025,"6":0.015,"7":0.005,"8":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.495,"1":0.24,"2":0.165,"3":0.05,"4":0.02,"5":0.02,"7":0.005,"8":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.375,"1":0.3,"2":0.145,"3":0.07,"4":0.065,"5":0.005,"6":0.005,"7":0.01,"8":0.005,"9":0.015,"12":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.205,"1":0.31,"2":0.28,"3":0.155,"4":0.025,"5":0.02,"6":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.525,"1":0.35,"2":0.1,"3":0.015,"4":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.63,"1":0.245,"2":0.08,"3":0.03,"4":0.01,"5":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1624060800000,"validUntil":1624665600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4706,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2021","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.009425000000000003,"mean":0.115,"median":0,"bias":0.115,"maeMean":0.115,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.905,"empiricalMass":0.905,"logScore":0.0998203352822109},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.020724999999999993,"mean":0.195,"median":0,"bias":0.195,"maeMean":0.195,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.86,"empiricalMass":0.86,"logScore":0.15082288973458366},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.013000000000000012,"mean":0.14,"median":0,"bias":0.14,"maeMean":0.14,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.89,"empiricalMass":0.89,"logScore":0.11653381625595151},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.029350000000000015,"mean":0.2,"median":0,"bias":0.2,"maeMean":0.2,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.83,"empiricalMass":0.83,"logScore":0.18632957819149348},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.006425,"mean":0.085,"median":0,"bias":0.085,"maeMean":0.085,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.92,"empiricalMass":0.92,"logScore":0.08338160893905101},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.005650000000000002,"mean":0.08,"median":0,"bias":0.08,"maeMean":0.08,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.925,"empiricalMass":0.925,"logScore":0.0779615414697118}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.905,"1":0.075,"2":0.02},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.86,"1":0.11,"2":0.02,"4":0.005,"5":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.89,"1":0.08,"2":0.03},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.83,"1":0.15,"2":0.015,"4":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.92,"1":0.075,"2":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.925,"1":0.07,"2":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1624060800000,"validUntil":1626652800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":2,"actual":33,"trainingCount":4706,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2021","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":7.54585,"mean":51.1,"median":43,"bias":18.1,"maeMean":18.1,"maeMedian":10,"low":23,"high":97,"coverage":true,"width":74,"pitLower":0.22,"pitUpper":0.26,"empiricalMass":0.04,"logScore":3.2188758248682006},"rollingETAS":{"crps":2.9097750000000007,"mean":32.285,"median":29,"bias":-0.7150000000000034,"maeMean":0.7150000000000034,"maeMedian":4,"low":17,"high":56,"coverage":true,"width":39,"pitLower":0.59,"pitUpper":0.62,"empiricalMass":0.03,"logScore":3.506557897319982},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":8.103,"mean":51.28,"median":44,"bias":18.28,"maeMean":18.28,"maeMedian":11,"low":22,"high":101,"coverage":true,"width":79,"pitLower":0.205,"pitUpper":0.24,"empiricalMass":0.035,"logScore":3.3524072174927233},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":14.958175,"mean":51.835,"median":51,"bias":18.835,"maeMean":18.835,"maeMedian":18,"low":41,"high":63,"coverage":false,"width":22,"pitLower":0.015,"pitUpper":0.015,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentPoisson":{"crps":8.29745,"mean":21.85,"median":22,"bias":-11.149999999999999,"maeMean":11.149999999999999,"maeMedian":11,"low":14,"high":30,"coverage":false,"width":16,"pitLower":0.985,"pitUpper":0.99,"empiricalMass":0.005,"logScore":5.298317366548036},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":8.481825,"mean":20.865,"median":19,"bias":-12.135000000000002,"maeMean":12.135000000000002,"maeMedian":14,"low":10,"high":35,"coverage":true,"width":25,"pitLower":0.92,"pitUpper":0.935,"empiricalMass":0.015,"logScore":4.199705077879927}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"12":0.005,"13":0.005,"18":0.005,"21":0.015,"22":0.005,"23":0.02,"24":0.015,"25":0.015,"26":0.02,"27":0.02,"28":0.005,"29":0.015,"30":0.015,"31":0.02,"32":0.04,"33":0.04,"34":0.025,"35":0.03,"36":0.025,"37":0.015,"38":0.035,"39":0.01,"40":0.03,"41":0.015,"42":0.03,"43":0.035,"44":0.01,"45":0.005,"46":0.04,"47":0.025,"48":0.015,"49":0.02,"50":0.015,"51":0.005,"52":0.015,"53":0.01,"54":0.01,"55":0.015,"56":0.005,"57":0.015,"59":0.01,"61":0.015,"62":0.02,"63":0.005,"64":0.01,"65":0.005,"66":0.005,"67":0.005,"69":0.01,"71":0.005,"72":0.01,"73":0.015,"75":0.005,"76":0.005,"77":0.01,"79":0.015,"81":0.015,"82":0.005,"83":0.015,"86":0.01,"89":0.005,"91":0.015,"92":0.005,"93":0.005,"97":0.01,"99":0.005,"103":0.005,"104":0.005,"106":0.005,"110":0.005,"111":0.005,"114":0.005,"119":0.005,"128":0.005,"289":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"10":0.005,"14":0.005,"15":0.01,"16":0.02,"17":0.02,"18":0.025,"19":0.015,"20":0.035,"21":0.05,"22":0.02,"23":0.035,"24":0.03,"25":0.06,"26":0.05,"27":0.03,"28":0.045,"29":0.055,"30":0.015,"31":0.025,"32":0.04,"33":0.03,"34":0.015,"35":0.025,"36":0.035,"37":0.03,"38":0.04,"39":0.035,"40":0.035,"41":0.02,"42":0.01,"43":0.005,"44":0.005,"46":0.02,"47":0.01,"48":0.02,"50":0.005,"52":0.005,"53":0.01,"56":0.01,"57":0.01,"67":0.005,"70":0.005,"71":0.005,"77":0.005,"78":0.005,"80":0.005,"99":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"9":0.005,"14":0.005,"18":0.005,"19":0.01,"20":0.005,"21":0.01,"22":0.01,"23":0.005,"24":0.005,"25":0.015,"26":0.02,"27":0.035,"28":0.01,"29":0.005,"30":0.025,"31":0.015,"32":0.02,"33":0.035,"34":0.02,"35":0.02,"36":0.02,"37":0.035,"38":0.01,"39":0.02,"40":0.025,"41":0.055,"42":0.005,"43":0.04,"44":0.015,"45":0.02,"46":0.01,"47":0.02,"48":0.02,"49":0.01,"50":0.03,"51":0.01,"52":0.025,"53":0.015,"54":0.01,"55":0.01,"56":0.01,"57":0.015,"58":0.005,"59":0.01,"61":0.01,"62":0.005,"63":0.01,"64":0.005,"65":0.02,"66":0.015,"67":0.01,"69":0.005,"71":0.015,"73":0.005,"74":0.01,"75":0.01,"76":0.005,"77":0.02,"78":0.01,"80":0.01,"82":0.015,"83":0.005,"85":0.005,"87":0.01,"91":0.01,"92":0.005,"94":0.005,"101":0.005,"103":0.005,"104":0.005,"112":0.005,"122":0.01,"129":0.005,"137":0.005,"142":0.005,"144":0.005,"150":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"31":0.005,"32":0.01,"38":0.01,"39":0.01,"40":0.005,"41":0.01,"42":0.03,"43":0.02,"44":0.05,"45":0.01,"46":0.055,"47":0.035,"48":0.06,"49":0.055,"50":0.055,"51":0.085,"52":0.07,"53":0.045,"54":0.04,"55":0.08,"56":0.035,"57":0.015,"58":0.035,"59":0.05,"60":0.025,"61":0.015,"62":0.025,"63":0.01,"64":0.01,"65":0.01,"66":0.005,"67":0.005,"68":0.005,"69":0.005,"74":0.005,"78":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"10":0.005,"11":0.015,"12":0.005,"13":0.015,"14":0.025,"15":0.04,"16":0.04,"17":0.055,"18":0.09,"19":0.05,"20":0.06,"21":0.09,"22":0.09,"23":0.05,"24":0.09,"25":0.035,"26":0.05,"27":0.035,"28":0.045,"29":0.035,"30":0.03,"31":0.02,"32":0.015,"33":0.005,"34":0.005,"35":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"7":0.01,"8":0.01,"9":0.015,"10":0.03,"11":0.045,"12":0.02,"13":0.015,"14":0.055,"15":0.06,"16":0.06,"17":0.055,"18":0.06,"19":0.08,"20":0.065,"21":0.015,"22":0.03,"23":0.02,"24":0.035,"25":0.05,"26":0.05,"27":0.035,"28":0.01,"29":0.03,"30":0.03,"31":0.01,"32":0.025,"33":0.015,"34":0.005,"35":0.02,"37":0.005,"38":0.015,"40":0.005,"41":0.005,"43":0.01}}},{"issuedAt":1624060800000,"validUntil":1626652800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":3,"actual":5,"trainingCount":4706,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2021","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.9293499999999999,"mean":6.19,"median":5,"bias":1.1900000000000004,"maeMean":1.1900000000000004,"maeMedian":0,"low":1,"high":14,"coverage":true,"width":13,"pitLower":0.44,"pitUpper":0.56,"empiricalMass":0.12,"logScore":2.120263536200091},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.8429249999999999,"mean":4.395,"median":4,"bias":-0.6050000000000004,"maeMean":0.6050000000000004,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":9,"coverage":true,"width":9,"pitLower":0.565,"pitUpper":0.645,"empiricalMass":0.08,"logScore":2.5257286443082556},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":1.0088750000000002,"mean":6.425,"median":5,"bias":1.4249999999999998,"maeMean":1.4249999999999998,"maeMedian":0,"low":1,"high":14,"coverage":true,"width":13,"pitLower":0.395,"pitUpper":0.505,"empiricalMass":0.11,"logScore":2.2072749131897207},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":1.0857,"mean":7.03,"median":7,"bias":2.0300000000000002,"maeMean":2.0300000000000002,"maeMedian":2,"low":2,"high":12,"coverage":true,"width":10,"pitLower":0.18,"pitUpper":0.305,"empiricalMass":0.125,"logScore":2.0794415416798357},"recentPoisson":{"crps":2.3236749999999997,"mean":1.985,"median":2,"bias":-3.0149999999999997,"maeMean":3.0149999999999997,"maeMedian":3,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":false,"width":4,"pitLower":0.96,"pitUpper":0.975,"empiricalMass":0.015,"logScore":4.199705077879927},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":2.1000249999999996,"mean":2.145,"median":2,"bias":-2.855,"maeMean":2.855,"maeMedian":3,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.94,"pitUpper":0.995,"empiricalMass":0.055,"logScore":2.900422093749666}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.03,"1":0.075,"2":0.1,"3":0.12,"4":0.115,"5":0.12,"6":0.075,"7":0.055,"8":0.045,"9":0.08,"10":0.05,"11":0.02,"12":0.04,"13":0.01,"14":0.025,"17":0.005,"18":0.01,"19":0.015,"20":0.005,"50":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.06,"1":0.1,"2":0.155,"3":0.12,"4":0.13,"5":0.08,"6":0.14,"7":0.06,"8":0.075,"9":0.04,"10":0.01,"11":0.01,"12":0.005,"14":0.01,"15":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.01,"1":0.07,"2":0.11,"3":0.12,"4":0.085,"5":0.11,"6":0.075,"7":0.08,"8":0.085,"9":0.04,"10":0.035,"11":0.05,"12":0.05,"13":0.02,"14":0.02,"16":0.005,"17":0.005,"18":0.01,"19":0.005,"21":0.005,"25":0.01},"expandingPoisson":{"1":0.01,"2":0.04,"3":0.045,"4":0.085,"5":0.125,"6":0.165,"7":0.14,"8":0.13,"9":0.08,"10":0.05,"11":0.055,"12":0.03,"13":0.02,"14":0.005,"15":0.015,"18":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.105,"1":0.325,"2":0.265,"3":0.155,"4":0.11,"5":0.015,"6":0.025},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.13,"1":0.21,"2":0.295,"3":0.19,"4":0.115,"5":0.055,"8":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1624060800000,"validUntil":1626652800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4706,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2021","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.28542499999999993,"mean":0.855,"median":0,"bias":0.855,"maeMean":0.855,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.51,"empiricalMass":0.51,"logScore":0.6733445532637656},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.13437500000000002,"mean":0.495,"median":0,"bias":0.495,"maeMean":0.495,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.65,"empiricalMass":0.65,"logScore":0.4307829160924542},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.26287499999999997,"mean":0.775,"median":0,"bias":0.775,"maeMean":0.775,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.53,"empiricalMass":0.53,"logScore":0.6348782724359695},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.35124999999999995,"mean":0.85,"median":1,"bias":0.85,"maeMean":0.85,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.45,"empiricalMass":0.45,"logScore":0.7985076962177716},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.11762500000000004,"mean":0.385,"median":0,"bias":0.385,"maeMean":0.385,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.66,"empiricalMass":0.66,"logScore":0.4155154439616658},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.10102500000000003,"mean":0.385,"median":0,"bias":0.385,"maeMean":0.385,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.69,"empiricalMass":0.69,"logScore":0.37106368139083207}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.51,"1":0.31,"2":0.08,"3":0.05,"4":0.035,"5":0.005,"7":0.01},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.65,"1":0.245,"2":0.08,"3":0.01,"4":0.015},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.53,"1":0.285,"2":0.1,"3":0.065,"4":0.01,"5":0.005,"6":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.45,"1":0.34,"2":0.145,"3":0.045,"4":0.015,"5":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.66,"1":0.295,"2":0.045},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.69,"1":0.24,"2":0.065,"3":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1626652800000,"validUntil":1626739200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":2,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4739,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2021","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.5508000000000002,"mean":1.62,"median":1,"bias":1.62,"maeMean":1.62,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":7,"coverage":true,"width":7,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.375,"empiricalMass":0.375,"logScore":0.9808292530117262},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.28755,"mean":0.9,"median":0,"bias":0.9,"maeMean":0.9,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.51,"empiricalMass":0.51,"logScore":0.6733445532637656},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.493575,"mean":1.325,"median":1,"bias":1.325,"maeMean":1.325,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.4,"empiricalMass":0.4,"logScore":0.916290731874155},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":1.013275,"mean":1.825,"median":2,"bias":1.825,"maeMean":1.825,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.205,"empiricalMass":0.205,"logScore":1.584745299843729},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.22755000000000003,"mean":0.68,"median":0,"bias":0.68,"maeMean":0.68,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.55,"empiricalMass":0.55,"logScore":0.5978370007556204},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.2532,"mean":0.72,"median":0,"bias":0.72,"maeMean":0.72,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.535,"empiricalMass":0.535,"logScore":0.6254885320861304}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.375,"1":0.305,"2":0.145,"3":0.075,"4":0.03,"6":0.015,"7":0.015,"8":0.01,"10":0.015,"12":0.005,"14":0.005,"25":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.51,"1":0.295,"2":0.12,"3":0.025,"4":0.025,"5":0.005,"6":0.01,"7":0.005,"14":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.4,"1":0.305,"2":0.115,"3":0.09,"4":0.03,"5":0.02,"6":0.02,"7":0.005,"8":0.005,"10":0.005,"11":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.205,"1":0.26,"2":0.26,"3":0.15,"4":0.07,"5":0.03,"6":0.015,"7":0.005,"8":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.55,"1":0.305,"2":0.085,"3":0.04,"4":0.015,"5":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.535,"1":0.28,"2":0.135,"3":0.035,"4":0.01,"5":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1626652800000,"validUntil":1626739200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":3,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4739,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2021","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.027774999999999994,"mean":0.225,"median":0,"bias":0.225,"maeMean":0.225,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.84,"empiricalMass":0.84,"logScore":0.1743533871447778},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.008624999999999994,"mean":0.125,"median":0,"bias":0.125,"maeMean":0.125,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.91,"empiricalMass":0.91,"logScore":0.09431067947124129},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.018750000000000017,"mean":0.17,"median":0,"bias":0.17,"maeMean":0.17,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.865,"empiricalMass":0.865,"logScore":0.14502577205025774},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.053299999999999986,"mean":0.25,"median":0,"bias":0.25,"maeMean":0.25,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.77,"empiricalMass":0.77,"logScore":0.2613647641344075},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.010024999999999992,"mean":0.105,"median":0,"bias":0.105,"maeMean":0.105,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.9,"empiricalMass":0.9,"logScore":0.10536051565782628},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.005849999999999994,"mean":0.09,"median":0,"bias":0.09,"maeMean":0.09,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.925,"empiricalMass":0.925,"logScore":0.0779615414697118}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.84,"1":0.115,"2":0.035,"3":0.005,"5":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.91,"1":0.07,"2":0.01,"3":0.005,"4":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.865,"1":0.115,"2":0.01,"3":0.005,"4":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.77,"1":0.21,"2":0.02},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.9,"1":0.095,"2":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.925,"1":0.06,"2":0.015}}},{"issuedAt":1626652800000,"validUntil":1626739200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4739,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2021","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.0016000000000000042,"mean":0.04,"median":0,"bias":0.04,"maeMean":0.04,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.96,"empiricalMass":0.96,"logScore":0.040821994520255166},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.0000999999999999994,"mean":0.01,"median":0,"bias":0.01,"maeMean":0.01,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.99,"empiricalMass":0.99,"logScore":0.01005033585350145},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.00040000000000000105,"mean":0.02,"median":0,"bias":0.02,"maeMean":0.02,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.98,"empiricalMass":0.98,"logScore":0.020202707317519466},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.0012250000000000039,"mean":0.035,"median":0,"bias":0.035,"maeMean":0.035,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.965,"empiricalMass":0.965,"logScore":0.03562717764315116},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.00040000000000000105,"mean":0.02,"median":0,"bias":0.02,"maeMean":0.02,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.98,"empiricalMass":0.98,"logScore":0.020202707317519466},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.00040000000000000105,"mean":0.02,"median":0,"bias":0.02,"maeMean":0.02,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.98,"empiricalMass":0.98,"logScore":0.020202707317519466}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.96,"1":0.04},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.99,"1":0.01},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.98,"1":0.02},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.965,"1":0.035},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.98,"1":0.02},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.98,"1":0.02}}},{"issuedAt":1626652800000,"validUntil":1627257600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":2,"actual":1,"trainingCount":4739,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2021","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":5.62115,"mean":10.3,"median":9,"bias":9.3,"maeMean":9.3,"maeMedian":8,"low":2,"high":24,"coverage":false,"width":22,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.025,"empiricalMass":0.025,"logScore":3.6888794541139363},"rollingETAS":{"crps":4.287675,"mean":8.285,"median":7,"bias":7.285,"maeMean":7.285,"maeMedian":6,"low":2,"high":19,"coverage":false,"width":17,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.005,"empiricalMass":0.005,"logScore":5.298317366548036},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":5.66205,"mean":10.58,"median":8.5,"bias":9.58,"maeMean":9.58,"maeMedian":7.5,"low":2,"high":25,"coverage":false,"width":23,"pitLower":0.01,"pitUpper":0.03,"empiricalMass":0.02,"logScore":3.912023005428146},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":8.869074999999999,"mean":11.735,"median":12,"bias":10.735,"maeMean":10.735,"maeMedian":11,"low":7,"high":17,"coverage":false,"width":10,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.005,"empiricalMass":0.005,"logScore":5.298317366548036},"recentPoisson":{"crps":2.8358000000000003,"mean":5.07,"median":5,"bias":4.07,"maeMean":4.07,"maeMedian":4,"low":2,"high":9,"coverage":false,"width":7,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.04,"empiricalMass":0.04,"logScore":3.2188758248682006},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":2.599125,"mean":5.205,"median":5,"bias":4.205,"maeMean":4.205,"maeMedian":4,"low":1,"high":10,"coverage":true,"width":9,"pitLower":0.045,"pitUpper":0.08,"empiricalMass":0.035,"logScore":3.3524072174927233}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"1":0.025,"2":0.05,"3":0.035,"4":0.055,"5":0.08,"6":0.07,"7":0.105,"8":0.055,"9":0.105,"10":0.075,"11":0.055,"12":0.05,"13":0.01,"14":0.025,"15":0.015,"16":0.01,"17":0.035,"18":0.04,"19":0.005,"20":0.01,"21":0.015,"22":0.015,"24":0.015,"26":0.005,"27":0.005,"28":0.01,"29":0.005,"32":0.005,"41":0.01,"43":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"1":0.005,"2":0.075,"3":0.07,"4":0.12,"5":0.09,"6":0.09,"7":0.125,"8":0.1,"9":0.075,"10":0.065,"11":0.015,"12":0.04,"13":0.03,"14":0.015,"15":0.01,"16":0.005,"17":0.01,"19":0.01,"22":0.005,"23":0.01,"24":0.005,"30":0.005,"35":0.015,"37":0.005,"59":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.01,"1":0.02,"2":0.03,"3":0.05,"4":0.06,"5":0.085,"6":0.06,"7":0.11,"8":0.075,"9":0.085,"10":0.045,"11":0.04,"12":0.04,"13":0.05,"14":0.03,"15":0.02,"16":0.015,"17":0.045,"18":0.02,"19":0.015,"20":0.01,"21":0.005,"23":0.01,"24":0.01,"25":0.01,"26":0.005,"27":0.005,"28":0.005,"30":0.005,"31":0.005,"36":0.005,"37":0.005,"38":0.005,"50":0.005,"52":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"1":0.005,"5":0.01,"6":0.03,"7":0.06,"8":0.05,"9":0.11,"10":0.105,"11":0.1,"12":0.14,"13":0.11,"14":0.09,"15":0.065,"16":0.035,"17":0.04,"18":0.025,"19":0.015,"20":0.005,"24":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"1":0.04,"2":0.055,"3":0.175,"4":0.145,"5":0.205,"6":0.165,"7":0.065,"8":0.08,"9":0.035,"10":0.015,"12":0.02},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.045,"1":0.035,"2":0.11,"3":0.125,"4":0.15,"5":0.155,"6":0.08,"7":0.055,"8":0.07,"9":0.07,"10":0.06,"11":0.02,"12":0.005,"13":0.015,"14":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1626652800000,"validUntil":1627257600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":3,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4739,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2021","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.47,"mean":1.21,"median":1,"bias":1.21,"maeMean":1.21,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.41,"empiricalMass":0.41,"logScore":0.8915981192837836},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.36945000000000006,"mean":1.08,"median":1,"bias":1.08,"maeMean":1.08,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.48,"empiricalMass":0.48,"logScore":0.7339691750802004},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.4629249999999999,"mean":1.265,"median":1,"bias":1.265,"maeMean":1.265,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.405,"empiricalMass":0.405,"logScore":0.9038682118755978},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.973225,"mean":1.575,"median":1,"bias":1.575,"maeMean":1.575,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.15,"empiricalMass":0.15,"logScore":1.8971199848858813},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.22004999999999997,"mean":0.61,"median":0,"bias":0.61,"maeMean":0.61,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.55,"empiricalMass":0.55,"logScore":0.5978370007556204},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.19529999999999997,"mean":0.61,"median":0,"bias":0.61,"maeMean":0.61,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.585,"empiricalMass":0.585,"logScore":0.5361434317502807}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.41,"1":0.3,"2":0.125,"3":0.07,"4":0.06,"5":0.025,"8":0.005,"9":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.48,"1":0.25,"2":0.13,"3":0.07,"4":0.035,"5":0.02,"6":0.005,"7":0.005,"11":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.405,"1":0.315,"2":0.14,"3":0.06,"4":0.03,"5":0.02,"6":0.01,"7":0.005,"8":0.005,"12":0.005,"15":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.15,"1":0.395,"2":0.255,"3":0.14,"4":0.05,"5":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.55,"1":0.32,"2":0.105,"3":0.02,"4":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.585,"1":0.27,"2":0.1,"3":0.04,"4":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1626652800000,"validUntil":1627257600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4739,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2021","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.017299999999999982,"mean":0.15,"median":0,"bias":0.15,"maeMean":0.15,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.87,"empiricalMass":0.87,"logScore":0.13926206733350766},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.018524999999999986,"mean":0.175,"median":0,"bias":0.175,"maeMean":0.175,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.87,"empiricalMass":0.87,"logScore":0.13926206733350766},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.019674999999999998,"mean":0.195,"median":0,"bias":0.195,"maeMean":0.195,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.865,"empiricalMass":0.865,"logScore":0.14502577205025774},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.06125000000000003,"mean":0.28,"median":0,"bias":0.28,"maeMean":0.28,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.755,"empiricalMass":0.755,"logScore":0.28103752973311236},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.006625000000000006,"mean":0.095,"median":0,"bias":0.095,"maeMean":0.095,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.92,"empiricalMass":0.92,"logScore":0.08338160893905101},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.009050000000000002,"mean":0.1,"median":0,"bias":0.1,"maeMean":0.1,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.905,"empiricalMass":0.905,"logScore":0.0998203352822109}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.87,"1":0.11,"2":0.02},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.87,"1":0.09,"2":0.035,"3":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.865,"1":0.1,"2":0.025,"4":0.005,"5":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.755,"1":0.21,"2":0.035},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.92,"1":0.065,"2":0.015},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.905,"1":0.09,"2":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1626652800000,"validUntil":1629244800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":2,"actual":19,"trainingCount":4739,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2021","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":21.306099999999997,"mean":52.17,"median":47.5,"bias":33.17,"maeMean":33.17,"maeMedian":28.5,"low":27,"high":91,"coverage":false,"width":64,"pitLower":0.005,"pitUpper":0.01,"empiricalMass":0.005,"logScore":5.298317366548036},"rollingETAS":{"crps":9.050674999999998,"mean":35.075,"median":32,"bias":16.075000000000003,"maeMean":16.075000000000003,"maeMedian":13,"low":20,"high":57,"coverage":false,"width":37,"pitLower":0.03,"pitUpper":0.045,"empiricalMass":0.015,"logScore":4.199705077879927},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":21.531075,"mean":54.655,"median":47,"bias":35.655,"maeMean":35.655,"maeMedian":28,"low":25,"high":109,"coverage":false,"width":84,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.005,"empiricalMass":0.005,"logScore":5.298317366548036},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":28.950350000000004,"mean":52.09,"median":52,"bias":33.09,"maeMean":33.09,"maeMedian":33,"low":39,"high":64,"coverage":false,"width":25,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentPoisson":{"crps":2.1336,"mean":22.51,"median":23,"bias":3.5100000000000016,"maeMean":3.5100000000000016,"maeMedian":4,"low":15,"high":29,"coverage":true,"width":14,"pitLower":0.19,"pitUpper":0.25,"empiricalMass":0.06,"logScore":2.8134107167600364},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":2.43135,"mean":22.65,"median":21.5,"bias":3.6499999999999986,"maeMean":3.6499999999999986,"maeMedian":2.5,"low":11,"high":38,"coverage":true,"width":27,"pitLower":0.37,"pitUpper":0.41,"empiricalMass":0.04,"logScore":3.2188758248682006}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"17":0.005,"19":0.005,"20":0.005,"22":0.005,"24":0.01,"25":0.005,"26":0.005,"27":0.015,"28":0.04,"29":0.01,"30":0.025,"31":0.015,"32":0.01,"33":0.045,"34":0.015,"35":0.005,"36":0.02,"37":0.03,"38":0.025,"39":0.01,"40":0.025,"41":0.045,"42":0.04,"43":0.025,"44":0.02,"45":0.015,"46":0.01,"47":0.015,"48":0.045,"49":0.015,"50":0.025,"51":0.01,"52":0.01,"53":0.02,"54":0.015,"55":0.01,"56":0.02,"57":0.015,"58":0.01,"59":0.02,"60":0.015,"61":0.025,"62":0.015,"64":0.015,"65":0.01,"66":0.015,"67":0.005,"68":0.015,"70":0.01,"71":0.01,"75":0.01,"76":0.015,"77":0.005,"79":0.01,"81":0.015,"83":0.01,"84":0.005,"85":0.01,"87":0.01,"88":0.005,"91":0.005,"94":0.005,"95":0.005,"99":0.005,"113":0.005,"114":0.005,"119":0.005,"120":0.005,"128":0.005,"141":0.005,"193":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"16":0.005,"17":0.015,"18":0.01,"19":0.015,"20":0.03,"21":0.015,"22":0.055,"23":0.04,"24":0.03,"25":0.05,"26":0.025,"27":0.035,"28":0.035,"29":0.055,"30":0.04,"31":0.02,"32":0.035,"33":0.035,"34":0.02,"35":0.05,"36":0.025,"37":0.02,"38":0.05,"39":0.035,"40":0.025,"41":0.005,"42":0.005,"43":0.015,"44":0.02,"45":0.005,"46":0.02,"47":0.005,"48":0.015,"49":0.005,"50":0.005,"51":0.01,"52":0.01,"53":0.02,"54":0.01,"55":0.015,"56":0.01,"57":0.005,"58":0.005,"61":0.01,"71":0.01,"72":0.005,"75":0.005,"83":0.01,"130":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"19":0.005,"21":0.01,"22":0.005,"23":0.01,"24":0.015,"25":0.015,"26":0.01,"27":0.01,"28":0.025,"29":0.01,"30":0.005,"31":0.02,"32":0.035,"33":0.02,"34":0.03,"35":0.02,"36":0.035,"37":0.01,"38":0.015,"39":0.025,"40":0.03,"41":0.015,"42":0.015,"43":0.02,"44":0.025,"45":0.025,"46":0.03,"47":0.025,"48":0.025,"49":0.025,"50":0.02,"51":0.02,"52":0.025,"53":0.01,"54":0.005,"55":0.015,"56":0.005,"57":0.01,"58":0.015,"60":0.01,"61":0.015,"63":0.005,"64":0.01,"65":0.005,"66":0.01,"67":0.015,"68":0.005,"69":0.01,"70":0.005,"71":0.015,"73":0.01,"74":0.015,"76":0.005,"77":0.015,"78":0.005,"79":0.01,"81":0.01,"84":0.005,"86":0.005,"87":0.005,"88":0.005,"89":0.005,"90":0.005,"91":0.005,"93":0.01,"96":0.005,"97":0.01,"98":0.005,"101":0.005,"103":0.005,"107":0.005,"109":0.01,"111":0.005,"113":0.005,"116":0.005,"122":0.005,"136":0.005,"139":0.005,"143":0.005,"178":0.005,"197":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"32":0.005,"34":0.005,"35":0.01,"38":0.005,"39":0.03,"40":0.01,"41":0.01,"42":0.01,"43":0.02,"44":0.05,"45":0.04,"46":0.02,"47":0.065,"48":0.04,"49":0.06,"50":0.035,"51":0.04,"52":0.05,"53":0.065,"54":0.04,"55":0.06,"56":0.07,"57":0.025,"58":0.04,"59":0.035,"60":0.025,"61":0.055,"62":0.01,"63":0.01,"64":0.02,"65":0.01,"67":0.01,"68":0.01,"69":0.005,"74":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"11":0.01,"12":0.01,"13":0.01,"14":0.015,"15":0.015,"16":0.06,"17":0.03,"18":0.04,"19":0.06,"20":0.07,"21":0.08,"22":0.085,"23":0.105,"24":0.095,"25":0.085,"26":0.025,"27":0.05,"28":0.045,"29":0.06,"30":0.015,"31":0.01,"32":0.005,"33":0.01,"36":0.005,"37":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"5":0.005,"7":0.005,"9":0.025,"10":0.01,"11":0.01,"12":0.05,"13":0.03,"14":0.025,"15":0.06,"16":0.055,"17":0.045,"18":0.05,"19":0.04,"20":0.055,"21":0.035,"22":0.04,"23":0.045,"24":0.025,"25":0.025,"26":0.04,"27":0.01,"28":0.025,"29":0.05,"30":0.045,"31":0.045,"32":0.02,"33":0.025,"34":0.035,"35":0.01,"36":0.005,"38":0.015,"39":0.01,"40":0.01,"41":0.005,"43":0.005,"45":0.005,"48":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1626652800000,"validUntil":1629244800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":3,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4739,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2021","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":4.105975,"mean":6.335,"median":6,"bias":6.335,"maeMean":6.335,"maeMedian":6,"low":1,"high":14,"coverage":false,"width":13,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.03,"empiricalMass":0.03,"logScore":3.506557897319982},"rollingETAS":{"crps":3.2938249999999996,"mean":4.975,"median":4,"bias":4.975,"maeMean":4.975,"maeMedian":4,"low":1,"high":10,"coverage":false,"width":9,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.02,"empiricalMass":0.02,"logScore":3.912023005428146},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":4.205975,"mean":6.645,"median":6,"bias":6.645,"maeMean":6.645,"maeMedian":6,"low":1,"high":15,"coverage":false,"width":14,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.01,"empiricalMass":0.01,"logScore":4.605170185988091},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":5.7046,"mean":7.12,"median":7,"bias":7.12,"maeMean":7.12,"maeMedian":7,"low":3,"high":11,"coverage":false,"width":8,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentPoisson":{"crps":1.5088,"mean":2.34,"median":2,"bias":2.34,"maeMean":2.34,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.11,"empiricalMass":0.11,"logScore":2.2072749131897207},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":1.6828500000000002,"mean":2.56,"median":2,"bias":2.56,"maeMean":2.56,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.06,"empiricalMass":0.06,"logScore":2.8134107167600364}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.03,"1":0.055,"2":0.075,"3":0.075,"4":0.145,"5":0.105,"6":0.13,"7":0.05,"8":0.105,"9":0.07,"10":0.03,"11":0.02,"12":0.02,"13":0.01,"14":0.04,"15":0.005,"16":0.005,"17":0.015,"22":0.005,"23":0.01},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.02,"1":0.07,"2":0.12,"3":0.165,"4":0.155,"5":0.11,"6":0.09,"7":0.075,"8":0.055,"9":0.06,"10":0.045,"11":0.01,"13":0.01,"15":0.005,"16":0.005,"22":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.01,"1":0.07,"2":0.085,"3":0.115,"4":0.06,"5":0.135,"6":0.115,"7":0.08,"8":0.075,"9":0.06,"10":0.035,"11":0.035,"12":0.02,"13":0.025,"14":0.015,"15":0.015,"18":0.015,"19":0.015,"20":0.005,"21":0.005,"23":0.005,"29":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"2":0.025,"3":0.05,"4":0.055,"5":0.15,"6":0.155,"7":0.135,"8":0.16,"9":0.085,"10":0.09,"11":0.05,"12":0.02,"13":0.015,"14":0.005,"15":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.11,"1":0.185,"2":0.29,"3":0.22,"4":0.105,"5":0.055,"6":0.025,"7":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.06,"1":0.225,"2":0.26,"3":0.21,"4":0.11,"5":0.085,"6":0.035,"7":0.01,"8":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1626652800000,"validUntil":1629244800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4739,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2021","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.24312500000000004,"mean":0.755,"median":0,"bias":0.755,"maeMean":0.755,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.545,"empiricalMass":0.545,"logScore":0.6069694843188929},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.17945,"mean":0.61,"median":0,"bias":0.61,"maeMean":0.61,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.6,"empiricalMass":0.6,"logScore":0.5108256237659907},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.23977499999999996,"mean":0.755,"median":0,"bias":0.755,"maeMean":0.755,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.56,"empiricalMass":0.56,"logScore":0.579818495252942},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.39544999999999997,"mean":0.87,"median":1,"bias":0.87,"maeMean":0.87,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.415,"empiricalMass":0.415,"logScore":0.8794767587514388},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.14275,"mean":0.43,"median":0,"bias":0.43,"maeMean":0.43,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.625,"empiricalMass":0.625,"logScore":0.4700036292457356},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.083125,"mean":0.375,"median":0,"bias":0.375,"maeMean":0.375,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.72,"empiricalMass":0.72,"logScore":0.3285040669720361}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.545,"1":0.28,"2":0.11,"3":0.035,"4":0.015,"5":0.005,"6":0.005,"7":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.6,"1":0.27,"2":0.085,"3":0.025,"4":0.01,"5":0.005,"6":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.56,"1":0.245,"2":0.11,"3":0.055,"4":0.025,"5":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.415,"1":0.36,"2":0.175,"3":0.04,"4":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.625,"1":0.33,"2":0.035,"3":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.72,"1":0.215,"2":0.045,"3":0.01,"4":0.01}}},{"issuedAt":1629244800000,"validUntil":1629331200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":2,"actual":1,"trainingCount":4758,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2021","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.33852499999999996,"mean":1.185,"median":1,"bias":0.18500000000000005,"maeMean":0.18500000000000005,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.45,"pitUpper":0.68,"empiricalMass":0.23,"logScore":1.4696759700589417},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.300975,"mean":0.825,"median":0,"bias":-0.17500000000000004,"maeMean":0.17500000000000004,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.51,"pitUpper":0.815,"empiricalMass":0.305,"logScore":1.1874435023747254},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.3121250000000001,"mean":0.905,"median":0,"bias":-0.09499999999999997,"maeMean":0.09499999999999997,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.515,"pitUpper":0.81,"empiricalMass":0.295,"logScore":1.2207799226423173},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.39859999999999995,"mean":1.81,"median":2,"bias":0.81,"maeMean":0.81,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.185,"pitUpper":0.485,"empiricalMass":0.3,"logScore":1.2039728043259361},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.25347500000000006,"mean":0.715,"median":1,"bias":-0.28500000000000003,"maeMean":0.28500000000000003,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.475,"pitUpper":0.835,"empiricalMass":0.36,"logScore":1.0216512475319814},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.296425,"mean":0.725,"median":0,"bias":-0.275,"maeMean":0.275,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.515,"pitUpper":0.83,"empiricalMass":0.315,"logScore":1.155182640156504}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.45,"1":0.23,"2":0.165,"3":0.07,"4":0.04,"5":0.03,"6":0.005,"7":0.005,"8":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.51,"1":0.305,"2":0.115,"3":0.035,"4":0.015,"5":0.015,"10":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.515,"1":0.295,"2":0.105,"3":0.04,"4":0.015,"5":0.015,"6":0.005,"9":0.005,"14":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.185,"1":0.3,"2":0.23,"3":0.16,"4":0.08,"5":0.03,"6":0.01,"8":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.475,"1":0.36,"2":0.14,"3":0.025},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.515,"1":0.315,"2":0.125,"3":0.03,"4":0.01,"6":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1629244800000,"validUntil":1629331200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":3,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4758,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2021","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.016525000000000012,"mean":0.155,"median":0,"bias":0.155,"maeMean":0.155,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.875,"empiricalMass":0.875,"logScore":0.13353139262452263},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.01112500000000001,"mean":0.115,"median":0,"bias":0.115,"maeMean":0.115,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.895,"empiricalMass":0.895,"logScore":0.11093156070728166},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.0026500000000000135,"mean":0.07,"median":0,"bias":0.07,"maeMean":0.07,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.95,"empiricalMass":0.95,"logScore":0.05129329438755058},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.06009999999999999,"mean":0.29,"median":0,"bias":0.29,"maeMean":0.29,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.76,"empiricalMass":0.76,"logScore":0.2744368457017603},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.010024999999999992,"mean":0.105,"median":0,"bias":0.105,"maeMean":0.105,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.9,"empiricalMass":0.9,"logScore":0.10536051565782628},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.008125000000000007,"mean":0.095,"median":0,"bias":0.095,"maeMean":0.095,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.91,"empiricalMass":0.91,"logScore":0.09431067947124129}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.875,"1":0.095,"2":0.03},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.895,"1":0.095,"2":0.01},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.95,"1":0.04,"2":0.005,"4":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.76,"1":0.19,"2":0.05},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.9,"1":0.095,"2":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.91,"1":0.085,"2":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1629244800000,"validUntil":1629331200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4758,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2021","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.0000999999999999994,"mean":0.01,"median":0,"bias":0.01,"maeMean":0.01,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.99,"empiricalMass":0.99,"logScore":0.01005033585350145},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.00002499999999999985,"mean":0.005,"median":0,"bias":0.005,"maeMean":0.005,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.995,"empiricalMass":0.995,"logScore":0.005012541823544286},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.0000999999999999994,"mean":0.01,"median":0,"bias":0.01,"maeMean":0.01,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.99,"empiricalMass":0.99,"logScore":0.01005033585350145},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.0012250000000000039,"mean":0.035,"median":0,"bias":0.035,"maeMean":0.035,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.965,"empiricalMass":0.965,"logScore":0.03562717764315116},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.000899999999999998,"mean":0.03,"median":0,"bias":0.03,"maeMean":0.03,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.97,"empiricalMass":0.97,"logScore":0.030459207484708574},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.00002499999999999985,"mean":0.005,"median":0,"bias":0.005,"maeMean":0.005,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.995,"empiricalMass":0.995,"logScore":0.005012541823544286}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.99,"1":0.01},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.995,"1":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.99,"1":0.01},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.965,"1":0.035},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.97,"1":0.03},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.995,"1":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1629244800000,"validUntil":1629849600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":2,"actual":8,"trainingCount":4758,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2021","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":1.2527,"mean":9.7,"median":8,"bias":1.6999999999999993,"maeMean":1.6999999999999993,"maeMedian":0,"low":2,"high":23,"coverage":true,"width":21,"pitLower":0.465,"pitUpper":0.54,"empiricalMass":0.075,"logScore":2.5902671654458267},"rollingETAS":{"crps":1.10365,"mean":7.57,"median":7,"bias":-0.4299999999999997,"maeMean":0.4299999999999997,"maeMedian":1,"low":2,"high":15,"coverage":true,"width":13,"pitLower":0.615,"pitUpper":0.69,"empiricalMass":0.075,"logScore":2.5902671654458267},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":1.5109750000000002,"mean":10.185,"median":7,"bias":2.1850000000000005,"maeMean":2.1850000000000005,"maeMedian":1,"low":2,"high":26,"coverage":true,"width":24,"pitLower":0.505,"pitUpper":0.565,"empiricalMass":0.06,"logScore":2.8134107167600364},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":2.6178500000000002,"mean":12.06,"median":12,"bias":4.0600000000000005,"maeMean":4.0600000000000005,"maeMedian":4,"low":6,"high":17,"coverage":true,"width":11,"pitLower":0.07,"pitUpper":0.125,"empiricalMass":0.055,"logScore":2.900422093749666},"recentPoisson":{"crps":1.939675,"mean":5.015,"median":5,"bias":-2.9850000000000003,"maeMean":2.9850000000000003,"maeMedian":3,"low":1,"high":9,"coverage":true,"width":8,"pitLower":0.875,"pitUpper":0.945,"empiricalMass":0.07,"logScore":2.659260036932778},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":1.9823000000000002,"mean":5.1,"median":5,"bias":-2.9000000000000004,"maeMean":2.9000000000000004,"maeMedian":3,"low":1,"high":11,"coverage":true,"width":10,"pitLower":0.805,"pitUpper":0.86,"empiricalMass":0.055,"logScore":2.900422093749666}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.01,"1":0.015,"2":0.055,"3":0.045,"4":0.085,"5":0.095,"6":0.085,"7":0.075,"8":0.075,"9":0.075,"10":0.08,"11":0.04,"12":0.05,"13":0.03,"14":0.02,"15":0.015,"16":0.025,"17":0.015,"18":0.01,"19":0.02,"21":0.005,"22":0.015,"23":0.01,"24":0.015,"25":0.01,"30":0.005,"31":0.005,"47":0.005,"52":0.005,"58":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.01,"1":0.015,"2":0.06,"3":0.08,"4":0.09,"5":0.12,"6":0.105,"7":0.135,"8":0.075,"9":0.065,"10":0.05,"11":0.04,"12":0.045,"13":0.01,"14":0.025,"15":0.025,"16":0.01,"17":0.005,"18":0.01,"19":0.005,"21":0.005,"24":0.005,"26":0.005,"53":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.005,"1":0.02,"2":0.03,"3":0.045,"4":0.12,"5":0.095,"6":0.115,"7":0.075,"8":0.06,"9":0.04,"10":0.075,"11":0.03,"12":0.03,"13":0.02,"14":0.015,"15":0.02,"16":0.015,"17":0.02,"18":0.015,"19":0.02,"20":0.005,"21":0.03,"22":0.025,"23":0.005,"24":0.01,"25":0.005,"26":0.005,"27":0.01,"28":0.005,"29":0.005,"30":0.01,"34":0.005,"35":0.005,"43":0.01},"expandingPoisson":{"5":0.03,"6":0.02,"7":0.02,"8":0.055,"9":0.08,"10":0.075,"11":0.155,"12":0.11,"13":0.14,"14":0.11,"15":0.08,"16":0.035,"17":0.045,"18":0.03,"19":0.01,"20":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.005,"1":0.055,"2":0.055,"3":0.14,"4":0.17,"5":0.175,"6":0.14,"7":0.135,"8":0.07,"9":0.025,"10":0.025,"11":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.035,"1":0.05,"2":0.125,"3":0.085,"4":0.155,"5":0.185,"6":0.11,"7":0.06,"8":0.055,"9":0.045,"10":0.035,"11":0.025,"12":0.015,"13":0.01,"14":0.01}}},{"issuedAt":1629244800000,"validUntil":1629849600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":3,"actual":1,"trainingCount":4758,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2021","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.29195000000000004,"mean":1.16,"median":1,"bias":0.15999999999999992,"maeMean":0.15999999999999992,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.415,"pitUpper":0.69,"empiricalMass":0.275,"logScore":1.2909841813155656},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.25625,"mean":1,"median":1,"bias":0,"maeMean":0,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.44,"pitUpper":0.78,"empiricalMass":0.34,"logScore":1.0788096613719298},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.319975,"mean":1.375,"median":1,"bias":0.375,"maeMean":0.375,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.39,"pitUpper":0.66,"empiricalMass":0.27,"logScore":1.3093333199837622},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.3228,"mean":1.62,"median":1,"bias":0.6200000000000001,"maeMean":0.6200000000000001,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.175,"pitUpper":0.51,"empiricalMass":0.335,"logScore":1.0936247471570706},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.38315000000000005,"mean":0.58,"median":0,"bias":-0.42000000000000004,"maeMean":0.42000000000000004,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.6,"pitUpper":0.85,"empiricalMass":0.25,"logScore":1.3862943611198906},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.38327500000000003,"mean":0.565,"median":0,"bias":-0.43500000000000005,"maeMean":0.43500000000000005,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.605,"pitUpper":0.875,"empiricalMass":0.27,"logScore":1.3093333199837622}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.415,"1":0.275,"2":0.175,"3":0.07,"4":0.04,"5":0.01,"7":0.005,"8":0.01},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.44,"1":0.34,"2":0.12,"3":0.045,"4":0.025,"5":0.02,"8":0.005,"9":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.39,"1":0.27,"2":0.15,"3":0.09,"4":0.035,"5":0.025,"6":0.025,"7":0.005,"8":0.005,"9":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.175,"1":0.335,"2":0.27,"3":0.165,"4":0.03,"5":0.02,"6":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.6,"1":0.25,"2":0.125,"3":0.02,"4":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.605,"1":0.27,"2":0.085,"3":0.035,"4":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1629244800000,"validUntil":1629849600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4758,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2021","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.013450000000000004,"mean":0.13,"median":0,"bias":0.13,"maeMean":0.13,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.885,"empiricalMass":0.885,"logScore":0.12216763397420753},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.020100000000000007,"mean":0.17,"median":0,"bias":0.17,"maeMean":0.17,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.86,"empiricalMass":0.86,"logScore":0.15082288973458366},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.013249999999999998,"mean":0.12,"median":0,"bias":0.12,"maeMean":0.12,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.885,"empiricalMass":0.885,"logScore":0.12216763397420753},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.025249999999999995,"mean":0.19,"median":0,"bias":0.19,"maeMean":0.19,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.845,"empiricalMass":0.845,"logScore":0.16841865162496325},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.003025,"mean":0.055,"median":0,"bias":0.055,"maeMean":0.055,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.945,"empiricalMass":0.945,"logScore":0.05657035148839435},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.007450000000000012,"mean":0.1,"median":0,"bias":0.1,"maeMean":0.1,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.915,"empiricalMass":0.915,"logScore":0.0888312137066157}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.885,"1":0.1,"2":0.015},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.86,"1":0.12,"2":0.01,"3":0.01},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.885,"1":0.11,"2":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.845,"1":0.12,"2":0.035},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.945,"1":0.055},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.915,"1":0.07,"2":0.015}}},{"issuedAt":1629244800000,"validUntil":1631836800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":2,"actual":21,"trainingCount":4758,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2021","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":15.94455,"mean":49.2,"median":44,"bias":28.200000000000003,"maeMean":28.200000000000003,"maeMedian":23,"low":21,"high":91,"coverage":true,"width":70,"pitLower":0.045,"pitUpper":0.055,"empiricalMass":0.01,"logScore":4.605170185988091},"rollingETAS":{"crps":6.440425,"mean":33.645,"median":30.5,"bias":12.645000000000003,"maeMean":12.645000000000003,"maeMedian":9.5,"low":17,"high":61,"coverage":true,"width":44,"pitLower":0.095,"pitUpper":0.12,"empiricalMass":0.025,"logScore":3.6888794541139363},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":17.116975,"mean":51.095,"median":46,"bias":30.095,"maeMean":30.095,"maeMedian":25,"low":20,"high":96,"coverage":true,"width":76,"pitLower":0.06,"pitUpper":0.065,"empiricalMass":0.005,"logScore":5.298317366548036},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":26.20095,"mean":51.37,"median":51,"bias":30.369999999999997,"maeMean":30.369999999999997,"maeMedian":30,"low":39,"high":63,"coverage":false,"width":24,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentPoisson":{"crps":1.1673499999999999,"mean":22.33,"median":22,"bias":1.3299999999999983,"maeMean":1.3299999999999983,"maeMedian":1,"low":15,"high":29,"coverage":true,"width":14,"pitLower":0.305,"pitUpper":0.375,"empiricalMass":0.07,"logScore":2.659260036932778},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":1.7967999999999993,"mean":21.47,"median":20,"bias":0.46999999999999886,"maeMean":0.46999999999999886,"maeMedian":1,"low":10,"high":35,"coverage":true,"width":25,"pitLower":0.525,"pitUpper":0.565,"empiricalMass":0.04,"logScore":3.2188758248682006}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"13":0.005,"15":0.005,"16":0.005,"17":0.005,"18":0.01,"19":0.01,"20":0.005,"21":0.01,"22":0.015,"23":0.015,"25":0.01,"26":0.015,"27":0.025,"28":0.05,"29":0.02,"30":0.02,"31":0.025,"32":0.01,"33":0.03,"34":0.02,"35":0.035,"36":0.015,"37":0.02,"38":0.015,"39":0.01,"40":0.03,"41":0.01,"42":0.01,"43":0.035,"44":0.015,"45":0.02,"46":0.015,"47":0.02,"48":0.025,"49":0.02,"50":0.015,"51":0.015,"52":0.015,"53":0.02,"54":0.005,"55":0.01,"56":0.01,"57":0.005,"58":0.01,"59":0.015,"60":0.015,"61":0.01,"62":0.015,"63":0.015,"65":0.005,"66":0.01,"67":0.01,"69":0.01,"70":0.01,"72":0.01,"73":0.025,"76":0.01,"77":0.01,"78":0.015,"79":0.015,"80":0.005,"84":0.01,"86":0.005,"89":0.005,"90":0.005,"91":0.01,"92":0.005,"95":0.005,"98":0.005,"104":0.005,"106":0.005,"108":0.005,"119":0.005,"123":0.005,"141":0.005,"152":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"13":0.005,"15":0.015,"16":0.015,"17":0.015,"18":0.02,"19":0.005,"20":0.02,"21":0.025,"22":0.03,"23":0.05,"24":0.02,"25":0.035,"26":0.075,"27":0.045,"28":0.04,"29":0.035,"30":0.05,"31":0.02,"32":0.04,"33":0.04,"34":0.02,"35":0.055,"36":0.03,"37":0.04,"38":0.005,"39":0.035,"40":0.015,"41":0.025,"42":0.015,"43":0.015,"45":0.01,"46":0.025,"49":0.01,"51":0.01,"54":0.01,"55":0.01,"56":0.005,"57":0.01,"61":0.01,"67":0.005,"68":0.005,"69":0.005,"74":0.01,"76":0.005,"79":0.005,"92":0.005,"106":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"12":0.005,"13":0.005,"14":0.005,"15":0.005,"17":0.005,"18":0.01,"19":0.005,"20":0.02,"21":0.005,"22":0.01,"23":0.02,"25":0.01,"26":0.01,"27":0.015,"28":0.005,"29":0.035,"30":0.015,"31":0.02,"32":0.02,"33":0.035,"34":0.015,"35":0.005,"36":0.02,"37":0.045,"38":0.03,"39":0.015,"40":0.02,"41":0.01,"42":0.005,"43":0.03,"44":0.01,"45":0.01,"46":0.035,"47":0.02,"48":0.03,"49":0.01,"50":0.01,"51":0.025,"52":0.015,"53":0.01,"54":0.005,"55":0.04,"56":0.02,"58":0.01,"59":0.015,"60":0.005,"61":0.005,"62":0.02,"63":0.005,"64":0.005,"65":0.01,"66":0.02,"67":0.015,"68":0.005,"69":0.005,"70":0.01,"71":0.005,"72":0.005,"73":0.02,"76":0.005,"77":0.01,"78":0.025,"82":0.01,"83":0.015,"85":0.005,"86":0.005,"88":0.005,"92":0.005,"95":0.005,"96":0.005,"97":0.005,"100":0.005,"102":0.005,"117":0.005,"119":0.005,"122":0.005,"129":0.005,"140":0.005,"165":0.005,"197":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"34":0.005,"35":0.005,"38":0.02,"39":0.025,"40":0.01,"41":0.02,"42":0.045,"43":0.035,"44":0.03,"45":0.055,"46":0.02,"47":0.045,"48":0.05,"49":0.04,"50":0.035,"51":0.065,"52":0.065,"53":0.045,"54":0.035,"55":0.04,"56":0.065,"57":0.03,"58":0.05,"59":0.02,"60":0.025,"61":0.02,"62":0.015,"63":0.035,"64":0.01,"65":0.02,"66":0.005,"67":0.01,"68":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"8":0.005,"9":0.005,"10":0.005,"13":0.015,"14":0.005,"15":0.02,"16":0.03,"17":0.03,"18":0.05,"19":0.09,"20":0.05,"21":0.07,"22":0.135,"23":0.115,"24":0.08,"25":0.07,"26":0.07,"27":0.035,"28":0.04,"29":0.045,"30":0.015,"31":0.005,"32":0.015},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"2":0.005,"5":0.005,"7":0.02,"8":0.005,"9":0.005,"10":0.03,"11":0.015,"12":0.025,"13":0.04,"14":0.035,"15":0.04,"16":0.05,"17":0.035,"18":0.065,"19":0.075,"20":0.075,"21":0.04,"22":0.025,"23":0.04,"24":0.05,"25":0.06,"26":0.05,"27":0.01,"28":0.025,"29":0.015,"30":0.015,"31":0.025,"32":0.02,"33":0.025,"34":0.01,"35":0.015,"36":0.005,"38":0.005,"39":0.005,"40":0.01,"41":0.01,"44":0.005,"45":0.005,"51":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1629244800000,"validUntil":1631836800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":3,"actual":3,"trainingCount":4758,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2021","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":1.39535,"mean":6.11,"median":5,"bias":3.1100000000000003,"maeMean":3.1100000000000003,"maeMedian":2,"low":1,"high":15,"coverage":true,"width":14,"pitLower":0.2,"pitUpper":0.35,"empiricalMass":0.15,"logScore":1.8971199848858813},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.9169000000000003,"mean":4.91,"median":4,"bias":1.9100000000000001,"maeMean":1.9100000000000001,"maeMedian":1,"low":1,"high":12,"coverage":true,"width":11,"pitLower":0.23,"pitUpper":0.385,"empiricalMass":0.155,"logScore":1.8643301620628905},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":1.6755249999999995,"mean":6.415,"median":6,"bias":3.415,"maeMean":3.415,"maeMedian":3,"low":1,"high":14,"coverage":true,"width":13,"pitLower":0.18,"pitUpper":0.265,"empiricalMass":0.085,"logScore":2.4651040224918206},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":2.62395,"mean":7.09,"median":7,"bias":4.09,"maeMean":4.09,"maeMedian":4,"low":3,"high":12,"coverage":true,"width":9,"pitLower":0.035,"pitUpper":0.08,"empiricalMass":0.045,"logScore":3.101092789211817},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.497475,"mean":2.435,"median":2,"bias":-0.565,"maeMean":0.565,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.565,"pitUpper":0.765,"empiricalMass":0.2,"logScore":1.6094379124341003},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.5531750000000001,"mean":2.315,"median":2,"bias":-0.685,"maeMean":0.685,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.595,"pitUpper":0.775,"empiricalMass":0.18,"logScore":1.7147984280919266}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.04,"1":0.08,"2":0.08,"3":0.15,"4":0.135,"5":0.055,"6":0.08,"7":0.04,"8":0.065,"9":0.055,"10":0.065,"11":0.035,"12":0.035,"13":0.02,"14":0.01,"15":0.02,"16":0.01,"17":0.005,"19":0.01,"23":0.005,"25":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.02,"1":0.115,"2":0.095,"3":0.155,"4":0.135,"5":0.135,"6":0.105,"7":0.07,"8":0.055,"9":0.03,"10":0.02,"11":0.01,"12":0.01,"13":0.015,"14":0.01,"15":0.01,"16":0.005,"20":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.025,"1":0.07,"2":0.085,"3":0.085,"4":0.12,"5":0.11,"6":0.07,"7":0.095,"8":0.065,"9":0.09,"10":0.045,"11":0.04,"12":0.025,"13":0.02,"14":0.005,"15":0.01,"16":0.01,"17":0.005,"19":0.015,"27":0.005,"28":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"1":0.005,"2":0.03,"3":0.045,"4":0.105,"5":0.12,"6":0.15,"7":0.13,"8":0.095,"9":0.12,"10":0.085,"11":0.06,"12":0.025,"13":0.015,"14":0.01,"15":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.075,"1":0.25,"2":0.24,"3":0.2,"4":0.14,"5":0.045,"6":0.035,"7":0.01,"8":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.125,"1":0.225,"2":0.245,"3":0.18,"4":0.135,"5":0.045,"6":0.03,"7":0.01,"9":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1629244800000,"validUntil":1631836800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4758,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2021","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.23387499999999994,"mean":0.705,"median":0,"bias":0.705,"maeMean":0.705,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.555,"empiricalMass":0.555,"logScore":0.5887871652357024},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.17107500000000003,"mean":0.635,"median":0,"bias":0.635,"maeMean":0.635,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.615,"empiricalMass":0.615,"logScore":0.4861330111756192},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.22275,"mean":0.74,"median":0,"bias":0.74,"maeMean":0.74,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.565,"empiricalMass":0.565,"logScore":0.5709295478356962},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.396275,"mean":0.835,"median":1,"bias":0.835,"maeMean":0.835,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.4,"empiricalMass":0.4,"logScore":0.916290731874155},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.08382499999999998,"mean":0.345,"median":0,"bias":0.345,"maeMean":0.345,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.715,"empiricalMass":0.715,"logScore":0.33547273628812946},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.09665000000000001,"mean":0.37,"median":0,"bias":0.37,"maeMean":0.37,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.695,"empiricalMass":0.695,"logScore":0.363843433417345}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.555,"1":0.265,"2":0.125,"3":0.035,"4":0.015,"5":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.615,"1":0.255,"2":0.06,"3":0.04,"4":0.02,"5":0.005,"7":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.565,"1":0.28,"2":0.065,"3":0.055,"4":0.025,"5":0.005,"8":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.4,"1":0.415,"2":0.14,"3":0.04,"4":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.715,"1":0.235,"2":0.04,"3":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.695,"1":0.245,"2":0.055,"3":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1631836800000,"validUntil":1631923200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":2,"actual":3,"trainingCount":4779,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2021","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":1.5644999999999998,"mean":1.14,"median":0,"bias":-1.86,"maeMean":1.86,"maeMedian":3,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.885,"pitUpper":0.94,"empiricalMass":0.055,"logScore":2.900422093749666},"rollingETAS":{"crps":1.710325,"mean":0.915,"median":1,"bias":-2.085,"maeMean":2.085,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.925,"pitUpper":0.955,"empiricalMass":0.03,"logScore":3.506557897319982},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":1.5071250000000003,"mean":1.245,"median":1,"bias":-1.755,"maeMean":1.755,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.85,"pitUpper":0.905,"empiricalMass":0.055,"logScore":2.900422093749666},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.8138,"mean":1.75,"median":2,"bias":-1.25,"maeMean":1.25,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.74,"pitUpper":0.895,"empiricalMass":0.155,"logScore":1.8643301620628905},"recentPoisson":{"crps":1.86475,"mean":0.72,"median":1,"bias":-2.2800000000000002,"maeMean":2.2800000000000002,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":false,"width":2,"pitLower":0.98,"pitUpper":0.995,"empiricalMass":0.015,"logScore":4.199705077879927},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":2.084025,"mean":0.565,"median":0,"bias":-2.435,"maeMean":2.435,"maeMedian":3,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":false,"width":2,"pitLower":0.98,"pitUpper":0.995,"empiricalMass":0.015,"logScore":4.199705077879927}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.505,"1":0.215,"2":0.165,"3":0.055,"4":0.01,"5":0.03,"7":0.005,"8":0.005,"14":0.005,"19":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.485,"1":0.3,"2":0.14,"3":0.03,"4":0.015,"5":0.015,"6":0.01,"10":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.47,"1":0.27,"2":0.11,"3":0.055,"4":0.035,"5":0.015,"6":0.02,"7":0.01,"10":0.01,"17":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.17,"1":0.305,"2":0.265,"3":0.155,"4":0.08,"5":0.02,"6":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.49,"1":0.325,"2":0.165,"3":0.015,"4":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.56,"1":0.34,"2":0.08,"3":0.015,"4":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1631836800000,"validUntil":1631923200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":3,"actual":1,"trainingCount":4779,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2021","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.8192750000000001,"mean":0.115,"median":0,"bias":-0.885,"maeMean":0.885,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0.905,"pitUpper":0.985,"empiricalMass":0.08,"logScore":2.5257286443082556},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.8466499999999999,"mean":0.1,"median":0,"bias":-0.9,"maeMean":0.9,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0.92,"pitUpper":0.985,"empiricalMass":0.065,"logScore":2.7333680090865},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.775725,"mean":0.165,"median":0,"bias":-0.835,"maeMean":0.835,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0.88,"pitUpper":0.965,"empiricalMass":0.085,"logScore":2.4651040224918206},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.648675,"mean":0.225,"median":0,"bias":-0.775,"maeMean":0.775,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0.805,"pitUpper":0.975,"empiricalMass":0.17,"logScore":1.7719568419318752},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.8836999999999999,"mean":0.07,"median":0,"bias":-0.9299999999999999,"maeMean":0.9299999999999999,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0.94,"pitUpper":0.99,"empiricalMass":0.05,"logScore":2.995732273553991},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.8930499999999999,"mean":0.06,"median":0,"bias":-0.94,"maeMean":0.94,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0.945,"pitUpper":0.995,"empiricalMass":0.05,"logScore":2.995732273553991}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.905,"1":0.08,"2":0.01,"3":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.92,"1":0.065,"2":0.01,"3":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.88,"1":0.085,"2":0.025,"3":0.01},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.805,"1":0.17,"2":0.02,"3":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.94,"1":0.05,"2":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.945,"1":0.05,"2":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1631836800000,"validUntil":1631923200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4779,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2021","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.0002249999999999995,"mean":0.015,"median":0,"bias":0.015,"maeMean":0.015,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.985,"empiricalMass":0.985,"logScore":0.015113637810048184},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0,"mean":0,"median":0,"bias":0,"maeMean":0,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":1,"empiricalMass":1,"logScore":0},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.00040000000000000105,"mean":0.02,"median":0,"bias":0.02,"maeMean":0.02,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.98,"empiricalMass":0.98,"logScore":0.020202707317519466},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.0012500000000000011,"mean":0.04,"median":0,"bias":0.04,"maeMean":0.04,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.965,"empiricalMass":0.965,"logScore":0.03562717764315116},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0,"mean":0,"median":0,"bias":0,"maeMean":0,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":1,"empiricalMass":1,"logScore":0},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0,"mean":0,"median":0,"bias":0,"maeMean":0,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":1,"empiricalMass":1,"logScore":0}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.985,"1":0.015},"rollingETAS":{"0":1},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.98,"1":0.02},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.965,"1":0.03,"2":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":1},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":1}}},{"issuedAt":1631836800000,"validUntil":1632441600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":2,"actual":10,"trainingCount":4779,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2021","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":1.9289000000000005,"mean":9.11,"median":7,"bias":-0.8900000000000006,"maeMean":0.8900000000000006,"maeMedian":3,"low":1,"high":23,"coverage":true,"width":22,"pitLower":0.665,"pitUpper":0.69,"empiricalMass":0.025,"logScore":3.6888794541139363},"rollingETAS":{"crps":2.06995,"mean":7.43,"median":6,"bias":-2.5700000000000003,"maeMean":2.5700000000000003,"maeMedian":4,"low":1,"high":17,"coverage":true,"width":16,"pitLower":0.755,"pitUpper":0.815,"empiricalMass":0.06,"logScore":2.8134107167600364},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":1.6622249999999998,"mean":9.625,"median":8,"bias":-0.375,"maeMean":0.375,"maeMedian":2,"low":2,"high":24,"coverage":true,"width":22,"pitLower":0.64,"pitUpper":0.68,"empiricalMass":0.04,"logScore":3.2188758248682006},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":1.0769750000000002,"mean":11.685,"median":11,"bias":1.6850000000000005,"maeMean":1.6850000000000005,"maeMedian":1,"low":6,"high":18,"coverage":true,"width":12,"pitLower":0.28,"pitUpper":0.38,"empiricalMass":0.1,"logScore":2.3025850929940455},"recentPoisson":{"crps":3.5282999999999998,"mean":5.23,"median":5,"bias":-4.77,"maeMean":4.77,"maeMedian":5,"low":1,"high":9,"coverage":false,"width":8,"pitLower":0.96,"pitUpper":0.985,"empiricalMass":0.025,"logScore":3.6888794541139363},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":3.653175,"mean":5.095,"median":5,"bias":-4.905,"maeMean":4.905,"maeMedian":5,"low":1,"high":11,"coverage":true,"width":10,"pitLower":0.92,"pitUpper":0.935,"empiricalMass":0.015,"logScore":4.199705077879927}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.015,"1":0.045,"2":0.035,"3":0.06,"4":0.12,"5":0.08,"6":0.1,"7":0.08,"8":0.085,"9":0.045,"10":0.025,"11":0.04,"12":0.035,"13":0.035,"14":0.035,"15":0.02,"16":0.025,"17":0.015,"18":0.015,"19":0.02,"20":0.01,"21":0.005,"23":0.005,"24":0.015,"26":0.005,"28":0.01,"30":0.005,"38":0.01,"62":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.015,"1":0.035,"2":0.03,"3":0.08,"4":0.125,"5":0.125,"6":0.1,"7":0.105,"8":0.08,"9":0.06,"10":0.06,"11":0.04,"12":0.035,"13":0.02,"14":0.02,"15":0.01,"16":0.005,"17":0.005,"18":0.01,"19":0.01,"20":0.005,"21":0.01,"28":0.005,"31":0.005,"33":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.005,"1":0.025,"2":0.045,"3":0.07,"4":0.085,"5":0.085,"6":0.1,"7":0.08,"8":0.055,"9":0.09,"10":0.04,"11":0.035,"12":0.06,"13":0.06,"14":0.035,"15":0.015,"16":0.02,"17":0.01,"18":0.015,"19":0.005,"20":0.01,"24":0.005,"27":0.005,"28":0.005,"34":0.005,"35":0.01,"37":0.005,"39":0.005,"43":0.005,"46":0.005,"66":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"3":0.005,"4":0.015,"6":0.035,"7":0.055,"8":0.075,"9":0.095,"10":0.1,"11":0.13,"12":0.09,"13":0.115,"14":0.07,"15":0.06,"16":0.065,"17":0.03,"18":0.04,"19":0.005,"20":0.005,"21":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.01,"1":0.06,"2":0.06,"3":0.105,"4":0.115,"5":0.165,"6":0.205,"7":0.14,"8":0.08,"9":0.02,"10":0.025,"11":0.01,"12":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.025,"1":0.045,"2":0.125,"3":0.1,"4":0.165,"5":0.19,"6":0.1,"7":0.08,"8":0.055,"9":0.035,"10":0.015,"11":0.025,"12":0.01,"13":0.005,"14":0.015,"15":0.005,"16":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1631836800000,"validUntil":1632441600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":3,"actual":2,"trainingCount":4779,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2021","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.7911250000000001,"mean":1.015,"median":1,"bias":-0.9850000000000001,"maeMean":0.9850000000000001,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.755,"pitUpper":0.905,"empiricalMass":0.15,"logScore":1.8971199848858813},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.7499000000000001,"mean":0.99,"median":1,"bias":-1.01,"maeMean":1.01,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.735,"pitUpper":0.9,"empiricalMass":0.165,"logScore":1.8018098050815563},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.76655,"mean":1.11,"median":1,"bias":-0.8899999999999999,"maeMean":0.8899999999999999,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.745,"pitUpper":0.875,"empiricalMass":0.13,"logScore":2.0402208285265546},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.40597499999999986,"mean":1.465,"median":1,"bias":-0.5349999999999999,"maeMean":0.5349999999999999,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.57,"pitUpper":0.805,"empiricalMass":0.235,"logScore":1.448169764837978},"recentPoisson":{"crps":1.247075,"mean":0.465,"median":0,"bias":-1.535,"maeMean":1.535,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.945,"pitUpper":0.995,"empiricalMass":0.05,"logScore":2.995732273553991},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":1.076625,"mean":0.585,"median":0,"bias":-1.415,"maeMean":1.415,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.86,"pitUpper":0.975,"empiricalMass":0.115,"logScore":2.162823150618887}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.455,"1":0.3,"2":0.15,"3":0.035,"4":0.03,"5":0.01,"6":0.01,"7":0.005,"9":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.445,"1":0.29,"2":0.165,"3":0.07,"4":0.005,"5":0.015,"6":0.005,"7":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.435,"1":0.31,"2":0.13,"3":0.06,"4":0.03,"5":0.005,"6":0.015,"7":0.01,"11":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.205,"1":0.365,"2":0.235,"3":0.165,"4":0.02,"5":0.005,"6":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.595,"1":0.35,"2":0.05,"3":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.58,"1":0.28,"2":0.115,"3":0.025}}},{"issuedAt":1631836800000,"validUntil":1632441600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4779,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2021","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.01695000000000002,"mean":0.17,"median":0,"bias":0.17,"maeMean":0.17,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.875,"empiricalMass":0.875,"logScore":0.13353139262452263},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.014625000000000013,"mean":0.135,"median":0,"bias":0.135,"maeMean":0.135,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.88,"empiricalMass":0.88,"logScore":0.12783337150988489},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.011700000000000016,"mean":0.14,"median":0,"bias":0.14,"maeMean":0.14,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.895,"empiricalMass":0.895,"logScore":0.11093156070728166},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.014399999999999996,"mean":0.12,"median":0,"bias":0.12,"maeMean":0.12,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.88,"empiricalMass":0.88,"logScore":0.12783337150988489},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.008125000000000007,"mean":0.095,"median":0,"bias":0.095,"maeMean":0.095,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.91,"empiricalMass":0.91,"logScore":0.09431067947124129},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.0025000000000000022,"mean":0.05,"median":0,"bias":0.05,"maeMean":0.05,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.95,"empiricalMass":0.95,"logScore":0.05129329438755058}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.875,"1":0.09,"2":0.025,"3":0.01},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.88,"1":0.105,"2":0.015},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.895,"1":0.08,"2":0.02,"4":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.88,"1":0.12},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.91,"1":0.085,"2":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.95,"1":0.05}}},{"issuedAt":1631836800000,"validUntil":1634428800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":2,"actual":20,"trainingCount":4779,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2021","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":15.52685,"mean":47.8,"median":42,"bias":27.799999999999997,"maeMean":27.799999999999997,"maeMedian":22,"low":20,"high":96,"coverage":true,"width":76,"pitLower":0.045,"pitUpper":0.065,"empiricalMass":0.02,"logScore":3.912023005428146},"rollingETAS":{"crps":7.604699999999999,"mean":34.52,"median":31,"bias":14.520000000000003,"maeMean":14.520000000000003,"maeMedian":11,"low":16,"high":66,"coverage":true,"width":50,"pitLower":0.09,"pitUpper":0.12,"empiricalMass":0.03,"logScore":3.506557897319982},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":15.601825,"mean":48.565,"median":41.5,"bias":28.564999999999998,"maeMean":28.564999999999998,"maeMedian":21.5,"low":20,"high":97,"coverage":true,"width":77,"pitLower":0.045,"pitUpper":0.06,"empiricalMass":0.015,"logScore":4.199705077879927},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":26.639275,"mean":50.605,"median":50,"bias":30.604999999999997,"maeMean":30.604999999999997,"maeMedian":30,"low":39,"high":63,"coverage":false,"width":24,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentPoisson":{"crps":1.1005250000000002,"mean":21.115,"median":21,"bias":1.1149999999999984,"maeMean":1.1149999999999984,"maeMedian":1,"low":13,"high":29,"coverage":true,"width":16,"pitLower":0.33,"pitUpper":0.42,"empiricalMass":0.09,"logScore":2.4079456086518722},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":1.7414000000000005,"mean":21.17,"median":21,"bias":1.1700000000000017,"maeMean":1.1700000000000017,"maeMedian":1,"low":10,"high":35,"coverage":true,"width":25,"pitLower":0.425,"pitUpper":0.485,"empiricalMass":0.06,"logScore":2.8134107167600364}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"12":0.005,"13":0.005,"14":0.005,"15":0.005,"16":0.015,"17":0.005,"18":0.005,"20":0.02,"21":0.005,"22":0.025,"23":0.015,"24":0.01,"25":0.005,"26":0.01,"27":0.025,"28":0.015,"29":0.025,"30":0.01,"31":0.015,"32":0.035,"33":0.045,"34":0.025,"35":0.035,"36":0.01,"37":0.015,"38":0.025,"39":0.035,"40":0.025,"41":0.02,"42":0.02,"43":0.025,"44":0.015,"45":0.01,"46":0.03,"47":0.02,"48":0.015,"49":0.015,"50":0.015,"51":0.025,"52":0.015,"53":0.01,"54":0.01,"55":0.03,"56":0.015,"58":0.005,"59":0.01,"60":0.01,"61":0.005,"62":0.005,"63":0.005,"65":0.005,"66":0.01,"67":0.005,"69":0.005,"70":0.005,"71":0.005,"72":0.005,"73":0.005,"74":0.005,"75":0.015,"77":0.015,"78":0.005,"79":0.005,"80":0.01,"81":0.01,"84":0.01,"85":0.005,"86":0.01,"94":0.005,"96":0.005,"99":0.01,"100":0.005,"101":0.005,"109":0.005,"117":0.005,"130":0.005,"140":0.005,"143":0.005,"159":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"10":0.005,"11":0.005,"12":0.01,"13":0.005,"14":0.02,"16":0.005,"17":0.01,"18":0.015,"19":0.015,"20":0.03,"21":0.025,"22":0.015,"23":0.02,"24":0.04,"25":0.055,"26":0.07,"27":0.04,"28":0.025,"29":0.03,"30":0.05,"31":0.025,"32":0.05,"33":0.01,"34":0.035,"35":0.015,"36":0.025,"37":0.015,"38":0.02,"39":0.02,"40":0.02,"41":0.03,"42":0.015,"43":0.02,"44":0.04,"45":0.005,"46":0.01,"48":0.005,"49":0.02,"50":0.005,"51":0.005,"52":0.01,"54":0.01,"56":0.01,"57":0.01,"58":0.005,"59":0.005,"61":0.005,"65":0.01,"66":0.005,"67":0.005,"68":0.005,"69":0.005,"72":0.005,"74":0.005,"76":0.005,"77":0.005,"79":0.005,"81":0.005,"89":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"12":0.005,"14":0.005,"16":0.01,"18":0.02,"19":0.005,"20":0.015,"21":0.01,"22":0.015,"23":0.01,"24":0.015,"25":0.015,"26":0.02,"27":0.015,"28":0.02,"29":0.03,"30":0.015,"31":0.025,"32":0.035,"33":0.015,"34":0.02,"35":0.03,"36":0.02,"37":0.015,"38":0.02,"39":0.025,"40":0.025,"41":0.045,"42":0.03,"43":0.02,"44":0.015,"45":0.045,"47":0.005,"48":0.01,"49":0.005,"50":0.01,"51":0.025,"52":0.015,"53":0.005,"54":0.015,"55":0.005,"56":0.02,"57":0.03,"58":0.015,"59":0.005,"61":0.02,"62":0.015,"63":0.01,"64":0.005,"67":0.02,"68":0.005,"72":0.01,"73":0.005,"74":0.005,"75":0.005,"77":0.005,"79":0.005,"82":0.015,"83":0.005,"84":0.005,"85":0.005,"86":0.005,"88":0.015,"89":0.005,"93":0.005,"97":0.005,"104":0.005,"111":0.005,"113":0.005,"115":0.01,"124":0.005,"134":0.005,"135":0.005,"140":0.005,"218":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"35":0.005,"36":0.01,"37":0.005,"38":0.015,"39":0.02,"40":0.02,"42":0.05,"43":0.04,"44":0.035,"45":0.04,"46":0.055,"47":0.045,"48":0.045,"49":0.085,"50":0.05,"51":0.065,"52":0.04,"53":0.04,"54":0.045,"55":0.06,"56":0.045,"57":0.03,"58":0.015,"59":0.005,"60":0.035,"61":0.025,"62":0.02,"63":0.015,"64":0.015,"67":0.01,"68":0.01,"69":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"11":0.01,"12":0.015,"13":0.025,"14":0.035,"15":0.035,"16":0.04,"17":0.045,"18":0.05,"19":0.075,"20":0.09,"21":0.115,"22":0.115,"23":0.095,"24":0.045,"25":0.065,"26":0.02,"27":0.04,"28":0.02,"29":0.035,"30":0.005,"31":0.01,"32":0.01,"33":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"3":0.005,"5":0.005,"8":0.005,"9":0.03,"10":0.015,"11":0.03,"12":0.03,"13":0.045,"14":0.02,"15":0.04,"16":0.055,"17":0.045,"18":0.05,"19":0.05,"20":0.06,"21":0.055,"22":0.06,"23":0.05,"24":0.04,"25":0.045,"26":0.035,"27":0.035,"28":0.03,"29":0.03,"30":0.04,"31":0.005,"32":0.01,"33":0.02,"35":0.025,"36":0.01,"37":0.005,"38":0.005,"39":0.005,"40":0.005,"41":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1631836800000,"validUntil":1634428800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":3,"actual":3,"trainingCount":4779,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2021","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":1.3415750000000002,"mean":5.805,"median":5,"bias":2.8049999999999997,"maeMean":2.8049999999999997,"maeMedian":2,"low":1,"high":13,"coverage":true,"width":12,"pitLower":0.245,"pitUpper":0.335,"empiricalMass":0.09,"logScore":2.4079456086518722},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.8365749999999998,"mean":4.795,"median":4,"bias":1.795,"maeMean":1.795,"maeMedian":1,"low":1,"high":12,"coverage":true,"width":11,"pitLower":0.29,"pitUpper":0.44,"empiricalMass":0.15,"logScore":1.8971199848858813},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":1.3330249999999997,"mean":6.085,"median":5,"bias":3.085,"maeMean":3.085,"maeMedian":2,"low":1,"high":16,"coverage":true,"width":15,"pitLower":0.22,"pitUpper":0.34,"empiricalMass":0.12,"logScore":2.120263536200091},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":2.332375,"mean":6.665,"median":7,"bias":3.665,"maeMean":3.665,"maeMedian":4,"low":3,"high":11,"coverage":true,"width":8,"pitLower":0.035,"pitUpper":0.09,"empiricalMass":0.055,"logScore":2.900422093749666},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.5574749999999999,"mean":2.185,"median":2,"bias":-0.815,"maeMean":0.815,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.625,"pitUpper":0.82,"empiricalMass":0.195,"logScore":1.6347557204183902},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.52855,"mean":2.39,"median":2,"bias":-0.6099999999999999,"maeMean":0.6099999999999999,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.585,"pitUpper":0.77,"empiricalMass":0.185,"logScore":1.6873994539038122}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.015,"1":0.13,"2":0.1,"3":0.09,"4":0.11,"5":0.1,"6":0.095,"7":0.09,"8":0.065,"9":0.045,"10":0.05,"11":0.01,"12":0.035,"13":0.02,"14":0.005,"15":0.01,"16":0.005,"17":0.005,"18":0.01,"28":0.005,"29":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.045,"1":0.07,"2":0.175,"3":0.15,"4":0.145,"5":0.075,"6":0.11,"7":0.04,"8":0.035,"9":0.055,"10":0.02,"11":0.02,"12":0.02,"13":0.01,"14":0.02,"15":0.005,"22":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.025,"1":0.065,"2":0.13,"3":0.12,"4":0.095,"5":0.13,"6":0.08,"7":0.075,"8":0.07,"9":0.035,"10":0.045,"11":0.02,"12":0.025,"13":0.02,"14":0.005,"15":0.005,"16":0.01,"17":0.015,"19":0.005,"21":0.01,"22":0.01,"35":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"2":0.035,"3":0.055,"4":0.13,"5":0.135,"6":0.11,"7":0.18,"8":0.135,"9":0.115,"10":0.035,"11":0.035,"12":0.01,"13":0.015,"15":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.13,"1":0.205,"2":0.29,"3":0.195,"4":0.11,"5":0.05,"6":0.015,"7":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.095,"1":0.24,"2":0.25,"3":0.185,"4":0.135,"5":0.045,"6":0.025,"7":0.02,"8":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1631836800000,"validUntil":1634428800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4779,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2021","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.22114999999999996,"mean":0.69,"median":0,"bias":0.69,"maeMean":0.69,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.57,"empiricalMass":0.57,"logScore":0.5621189181535413},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.159825,"mean":0.605,"median":0,"bias":0.605,"maeMean":0.605,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.635,"empiricalMass":0.635,"logScore":0.4541302800894454},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.20937500000000003,"mean":0.655,"median":0,"bias":0.655,"maeMean":0.655,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.575,"empiricalMass":0.575,"logScore":0.5533852381847867},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.34325000000000006,"mean":0.81,"median":1,"bias":0.81,"maeMean":0.81,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.455,"empiricalMass":0.455,"logScore":0.7874578600311866},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.03824999999999998,"mean":0.21,"median":0,"bias":0.21,"maeMean":0.21,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.805,"empiricalMass":0.805,"logScore":0.21691300156357363},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.04065000000000002,"mean":0.23,"median":0,"bias":0.23,"maeMean":0.23,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.8,"empiricalMass":0.8,"logScore":0.2231435513142097}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.57,"1":0.25,"2":0.12,"3":0.045,"4":0.01,"5":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.635,"1":0.215,"2":0.09,"3":0.04,"4":0.01,"5":0.01},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.575,"1":0.265,"2":0.105,"3":0.045,"4":0.005,"5":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.455,"1":0.335,"2":0.165,"3":0.035,"4":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.805,"1":0.18,"2":0.015},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.8,"1":0.175,"2":0.02,"3":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1634428800000,"validUntil":1634515200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":2,"actual":1,"trainingCount":4799,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2021","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.26505,"mean":1.22,"median":1,"bias":0.21999999999999997,"maeMean":0.21999999999999997,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.405,"pitUpper":0.73,"empiricalMass":0.325,"logScore":1.1239300966523995},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.25444999999999995,"mean":1.08,"median":1,"bias":0.08000000000000007,"maeMean":0.08000000000000007,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.445,"pitUpper":0.8,"empiricalMass":0.355,"logScore":1.0356374895067213},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.302125,"mean":1.205,"median":1,"bias":0.20500000000000007,"maeMean":0.20500000000000007,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.45,"pitUpper":0.73,"empiricalMass":0.28,"logScore":1.2729656758128873},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.38732500000000003,"mean":1.785,"median":2,"bias":0.7849999999999999,"maeMean":0.7849999999999999,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.175,"pitUpper":0.47,"empiricalMass":0.295,"logScore":1.2207799226423173},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.25805,"mean":0.65,"median":1,"bias":-0.35,"maeMean":0.35,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.495,"pitUpper":0.89,"empiricalMass":0.395,"logScore":0.9288695140810151},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.34315000000000007,"mean":0.67,"median":0,"bias":-0.32999999999999996,"maeMean":0.32999999999999996,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.565,"pitUpper":0.86,"empiricalMass":0.295,"logScore":1.2207799226423173}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.405,"1":0.325,"2":0.155,"3":0.025,"4":0.02,"5":0.035,"6":0.015,"7":0.005,"8":0.01,"10":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.445,"1":0.355,"2":0.095,"3":0.065,"4":0.005,"5":0.005,"6":0.01,"8":0.005,"11":0.005,"12":0.005,"16":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.45,"1":0.28,"2":0.125,"3":0.09,"4":0.02,"5":0.02,"9":0.005,"11":0.005,"25":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.175,"1":0.295,"2":0.285,"3":0.125,"4":0.09,"5":0.015,"7":0.01,"8":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.495,"1":0.395,"2":0.08,"3":0.025,"4":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.565,"1":0.295,"2":0.08,"3":0.035,"4":0.015,"5":0.01}}},{"issuedAt":1634428800000,"validUntil":1634515200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":3,"actual":1,"trainingCount":4799,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2021","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.82835,"mean":0.11,"median":0,"bias":-0.89,"maeMean":0.89,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0.91,"pitUpper":0.985,"empiricalMass":0.075,"logScore":2.5902671654458267},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.78395,"mean":0.15,"median":0,"bias":-0.85,"maeMean":0.85,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0.885,"pitUpper":0.975,"empiricalMass":0.09,"logScore":2.4079456086518722},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.8566499999999999,"mean":0.12,"median":0,"bias":-0.88,"maeMean":0.88,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0.925,"pitUpper":0.97,"empiricalMass":0.045,"logScore":3.101092789211817},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.690125,"mean":0.205,"median":0,"bias":-0.795,"maeMean":0.795,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0.83,"pitUpper":0.965,"empiricalMass":0.135,"logScore":2.0024805005437076},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.765725,"mean":0.135,"median":0,"bias":-0.865,"maeMean":0.865,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0.875,"pitUpper":0.99,"empiricalMass":0.115,"logScore":2.162823150618887},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.8649,"mean":0.07,"median":0,"bias":-0.9299999999999999,"maeMean":0.9299999999999999,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0.93,"pitUpper":1,"empiricalMass":0.07,"logScore":2.659260036932778}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.91,"1":0.075,"2":0.01,"3":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.885,"1":0.09,"2":0.015,"3":0.01},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.925,"1":0.045,"2":0.02,"3":0.005,"4":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.83,"1":0.135,"2":0.035},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.875,"1":0.115,"2":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.93,"1":0.07}}},{"issuedAt":1634428800000,"validUntil":1634515200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4799,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2021","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.0000999999999999994,"mean":0.01,"median":0,"bias":0.01,"maeMean":0.01,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.99,"empiricalMass":0.99,"logScore":0.01005033585350145},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.002024999999999999,"mean":0.045,"median":0,"bias":0.045,"maeMean":0.045,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.955,"empiricalMass":0.955,"logScore":0.046043938501406846},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.0002249999999999995,"mean":0.015,"median":0,"bias":0.015,"maeMean":0.015,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.985,"empiricalMass":0.985,"logScore":0.015113637810048184},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.000899999999999998,"mean":0.03,"median":0,"bias":0.03,"maeMean":0.03,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.97,"empiricalMass":0.97,"logScore":0.030459207484708574},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.0000999999999999994,"mean":0.01,"median":0,"bias":0.01,"maeMean":0.01,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.99,"empiricalMass":0.99,"logScore":0.01005033585350145},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0,"mean":0,"median":0,"bias":0,"maeMean":0,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":1,"empiricalMass":1,"logScore":0}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.99,"1":0.01},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.955,"1":0.045},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.985,"1":0.015},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.97,"1":0.03},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.99,"1":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":1}}},{"issuedAt":1634428800000,"validUntil":1635033600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":2,"actual":4,"trainingCount":4799,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2021","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":3.0339250000000004,"mean":10.655,"median":8,"bias":6.654999999999999,"maeMean":6.654999999999999,"maeMedian":4,"low":2,"high":25,"coverage":true,"width":23,"pitLower":0.105,"pitUpper":0.18,"empiricalMass":0.075,"logScore":2.5902671654458267},"rollingETAS":{"crps":1.2062,"mean":7.03,"median":6,"bias":3.0300000000000002,"maeMean":3.0300000000000002,"maeMedian":2,"low":2,"high":16,"coverage":true,"width":14,"pitLower":0.21,"pitUpper":0.38,"empiricalMass":0.17,"logScore":1.7719568419318752},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":2.6214500000000003,"mean":9.8,"median":8,"bias":5.800000000000001,"maeMean":5.800000000000001,"maeMedian":4,"low":2,"high":24,"coverage":true,"width":22,"pitLower":0.145,"pitUpper":0.2,"empiricalMass":0.055,"logScore":2.900422093749666},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":5.893275,"mean":11.715,"median":11,"bias":7.715,"maeMean":7.715,"maeMedian":7,"low":7,"high":17,"coverage":false,"width":10,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.005,"empiricalMass":0.005,"logScore":5.298317366548036},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.7533249999999998,"mean":5.285,"median":5,"bias":1.2850000000000001,"maeMean":1.2850000000000001,"maeMedian":1,"low":2,"high":9,"coverage":true,"width":7,"pitLower":0.21,"pitUpper":0.365,"empiricalMass":0.155,"logScore":1.8643301620628905},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.708725,"mean":5.095,"median":5,"bias":1.0949999999999998,"maeMean":1.0949999999999998,"maeMedian":1,"low":1,"high":10,"coverage":true,"width":9,"pitLower":0.325,"pitUpper":0.48,"empiricalMass":0.155,"logScore":1.8643301620628905}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"1":0.005,"2":0.05,"3":0.05,"4":0.075,"5":0.075,"6":0.1,"7":0.095,"8":0.06,"9":0.065,"10":0.045,"11":0.045,"12":0.03,"13":0.045,"14":0.025,"15":0.03,"16":0.02,"17":0.02,"18":0.025,"19":0.025,"20":0.025,"21":0.01,"22":0.005,"24":0.01,"25":0.02,"27":0.005,"30":0.005,"31":0.005,"33":0.005,"36":0.005,"37":0.01,"39":0.005,"42":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.01,"1":0.035,"2":0.075,"3":0.09,"4":0.17,"5":0.115,"6":0.075,"7":0.085,"8":0.07,"9":0.065,"10":0.04,"11":0.035,"12":0.04,"13":0.01,"14":0.005,"15":0.015,"16":0.015,"17":0.01,"19":0.015,"20":0.005,"21":0.005,"22":0.005,"32":0.005,"54":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"1":0.025,"2":0.065,"3":0.055,"4":0.055,"5":0.105,"6":0.07,"7":0.08,"8":0.12,"9":0.05,"10":0.025,"11":0.06,"12":0.03,"13":0.04,"14":0.02,"15":0.04,"16":0.035,"17":0.015,"18":0.01,"19":0.015,"20":0.005,"21":0.005,"22":0.01,"23":0.005,"24":0.015,"25":0.01,"26":0.005,"27":0.005,"28":0.01,"29":0.005,"38":0.005,"73":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"4":0.005,"6":0.015,"7":0.04,"8":0.11,"9":0.14,"10":0.1,"11":0.095,"12":0.1,"13":0.09,"14":0.12,"15":0.06,"16":0.03,"17":0.05,"18":0.015,"19":0.015,"20":0.01,"21":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.01,"1":0.035,"2":0.06,"3":0.105,"4":0.155,"5":0.205,"6":0.155,"7":0.125,"8":0.07,"9":0.03,"10":0.02,"11":0.025,"12":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.015,"1":0.09,"2":0.08,"3":0.14,"4":0.155,"5":0.14,"6":0.11,"7":0.065,"8":0.075,"9":0.04,"10":0.055,"11":0.01,"12":0.005,"14":0.01,"16":0.005,"18":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1634428800000,"validUntil":1635033600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":3,"actual":1,"trainingCount":4799,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2021","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.336325,"mean":1.275,"median":1,"bias":0.2749999999999999,"maeMean":0.2749999999999999,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.435,"pitUpper":0.675,"empiricalMass":0.24,"logScore":1.4271163556401458},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.291975,"mean":0.995,"median":1,"bias":-0.0050000000000000044,"maeMean":0.0050000000000000044,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.475,"pitUpper":0.775,"empiricalMass":0.3,"logScore":1.2039728043259361},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.31852499999999995,"mean":1.205,"median":1,"bias":0.20500000000000007,"maeMean":0.20500000000000007,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.435,"pitUpper":0.68,"empiricalMass":0.245,"logScore":1.40649706843741},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.37077499999999997,"mean":1.715,"median":2,"bias":0.7150000000000001,"maeMean":0.7150000000000001,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.185,"pitUpper":0.485,"empiricalMass":0.3,"logScore":1.2039728043259361},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.31532499999999997,"mean":0.595,"median":0,"bias":-0.405,"maeMean":0.405,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.55,"pitUpper":0.89,"empiricalMass":0.34,"logScore":1.0788096613719298},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.37852499999999994,"mean":0.475,"median":0,"bias":-0.525,"maeMean":0.525,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.61,"pitUpper":0.92,"empiricalMass":0.31,"logScore":1.171182981502945}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.435,"1":0.24,"2":0.17,"3":0.045,"4":0.05,"5":0.02,"6":0.03,"7":0.005,"9":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.475,"1":0.3,"2":0.11,"3":0.08,"4":0.02,"9":0.005,"10":0.005,"12":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.435,"1":0.245,"2":0.18,"3":0.065,"4":0.045,"5":0.01,"6":0.01,"8":0.005,"15":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.185,"1":0.3,"2":0.265,"3":0.16,"4":0.065,"5":0.02,"9":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.55,"1":0.34,"2":0.085,"3":0.015,"4":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.61,"1":0.31,"2":0.075,"3":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1634428800000,"validUntil":1635033600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4799,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2021","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.014800000000000008,"mean":0.14,"median":0,"bias":0.14,"maeMean":0.14,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.88,"empiricalMass":0.88,"logScore":0.12783337150988489},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.007999999999999993,"mean":0.12,"median":0,"bias":0.12,"maeMean":0.12,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.92,"empiricalMass":0.92,"logScore":0.08338160893905101},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.016875,"mean":0.165,"median":0,"bias":0.165,"maeMean":0.165,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.875,"empiricalMass":0.875,"logScore":0.13353139262452263},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.05612500000000001,"mean":0.265,"median":0,"bias":0.265,"maeMean":0.265,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.765,"empiricalMass":0.765,"logScore":0.2678794451556012},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.0012250000000000039,"mean":0.035,"median":0,"bias":0.035,"maeMean":0.035,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.965,"empiricalMass":0.965,"logScore":0.03562717764315116},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.0012250000000000039,"mean":0.035,"median":0,"bias":0.035,"maeMean":0.035,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.965,"empiricalMass":0.965,"logScore":0.03562717764315116}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.88,"1":0.1,"2":0.02},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.92,"1":0.04,"2":0.04},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.875,"1":0.09,"2":0.03,"3":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.765,"1":0.205,"2":0.03},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.965,"1":0.035},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.965,"1":0.035}}},{"issuedAt":1634428800000,"validUntil":1637020800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":2,"actual":25,"trainingCount":4799,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2021","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":13.600599999999998,"mean":50.32,"median":45,"bias":25.32,"maeMean":25.32,"maeMedian":20,"low":22,"high":93,"coverage":true,"width":71,"pitLower":0.085,"pitUpper":0.1,"empiricalMass":0.015,"logScore":4.199705077879927},"rollingETAS":{"crps":3.3946000000000005,"mean":31.95,"median":30,"bias":6.949999999999999,"maeMean":6.949999999999999,"maeMedian":5,"low":16,"high":60,"coverage":true,"width":44,"pitLower":0.335,"pitUpper":0.355,"empiricalMass":0.02,"logScore":3.912023005428146},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":13.947225000000001,"mean":52.845,"median":45,"bias":27.845,"maeMean":27.845,"maeMedian":20,"low":23,"high":108,"coverage":true,"width":85,"pitLower":0.07,"pitUpper":0.09,"empiricalMass":0.02,"logScore":3.912023005428146},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":21.762825,"mean":50.495,"median":50,"bias":25.494999999999997,"maeMean":25.494999999999997,"maeMedian":25,"low":38,"high":62,"coverage":false,"width":24,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentPoisson":{"crps":1.8548750000000003,"mean":22.025,"median":22,"bias":-2.9750000000000014,"maeMean":2.9750000000000014,"maeMedian":3,"low":14,"high":30,"coverage":true,"width":16,"pitLower":0.725,"pitUpper":0.78,"empiricalMass":0.055,"logScore":2.900422093749666},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":2.0505999999999993,"mean":22.85,"median":23,"bias":-2.1499999999999986,"maeMean":2.1499999999999986,"maeMedian":2,"low":12,"high":36,"coverage":true,"width":24,"pitLower":0.61,"pitUpper":0.675,"empiricalMass":0.065,"logScore":2.7333680090865}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"15":0.005,"18":0.005,"19":0.005,"21":0.01,"22":0.035,"23":0.005,"24":0.02,"25":0.015,"26":0.01,"27":0.005,"28":0.015,"29":0.02,"30":0.025,"31":0.025,"32":0.01,"33":0.02,"34":0.01,"35":0.025,"36":0.025,"37":0.035,"38":0.015,"39":0.035,"40":0.015,"41":0.015,"42":0.025,"43":0.03,"44":0.025,"45":0.02,"46":0.04,"47":0.015,"48":0.02,"49":0.015,"50":0.02,"51":0.035,"52":0.02,"53":0.01,"54":0.005,"56":0.015,"57":0.02,"58":0.02,"59":0.01,"60":0.01,"62":0.01,"63":0.01,"64":0.01,"66":0.03,"67":0.015,"68":0.01,"69":0.005,"70":0.01,"71":0.005,"72":0.005,"74":0.005,"78":0.005,"80":0.01,"82":0.005,"83":0.005,"84":0.005,"85":0.005,"86":0.005,"87":0.01,"90":0.01,"91":0.005,"92":0.005,"93":0.005,"98":0.005,"99":0.005,"102":0.005,"104":0.005,"105":0.005,"108":0.005,"119":0.005,"120":0.005,"169":0.005,"174":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"9":0.005,"12":0.005,"13":0.015,"14":0.005,"15":0.01,"16":0.025,"17":0.02,"18":0.035,"19":0.025,"20":0.035,"21":0.045,"22":0.035,"23":0.045,"24":0.03,"25":0.02,"26":0.045,"27":0.035,"28":0.04,"29":0.02,"30":0.03,"31":0.055,"32":0.03,"33":0.045,"34":0.035,"35":0.015,"36":0.02,"37":0.015,"38":0.03,"39":0.01,"40":0.035,"41":0.02,"42":0.015,"43":0.01,"44":0.01,"45":0.005,"47":0.01,"49":0.015,"50":0.005,"52":0.01,"53":0.005,"54":0.005,"56":0.005,"58":0.01,"60":0.01,"61":0.015,"64":0.005,"69":0.01,"70":0.005,"71":0.005,"93":0.005,"104":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"16":0.005,"17":0.005,"19":0.015,"20":0.01,"21":0.005,"22":0.005,"23":0.005,"24":0.02,"25":0.02,"26":0.01,"27":0.03,"28":0.01,"29":0.025,"30":0.01,"31":0.03,"32":0.025,"33":0.02,"34":0.015,"35":0.03,"36":0.03,"37":0.02,"38":0.01,"39":0.015,"40":0.03,"41":0.015,"42":0.045,"43":0.01,"45":0.05,"46":0.025,"47":0.005,"48":0.015,"49":0.03,"50":0.01,"51":0.02,"52":0.02,"53":0.005,"54":0.02,"56":0.02,"57":0.005,"58":0.005,"59":0.005,"60":0.005,"61":0.01,"63":0.01,"65":0.01,"66":0.02,"67":0.01,"68":0.01,"69":0.01,"70":0.01,"71":0.01,"72":0.005,"73":0.005,"74":0.005,"75":0.02,"77":0.005,"80":0.01,"81":0.005,"82":0.01,"83":0.005,"85":0.005,"87":0.01,"88":0.01,"93":0.005,"95":0.015,"96":0.005,"102":0.005,"104":0.005,"107":0.005,"108":0.005,"109":0.005,"111":0.005,"113":0.005,"116":0.005,"125":0.005,"136":0.005,"139":0.005,"165":0.005,"178":0.005,"186":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"34":0.005,"35":0.005,"36":0.005,"37":0.02,"38":0.015,"39":0.01,"40":0.005,"41":0.005,"42":0.025,"43":0.03,"44":0.045,"45":0.04,"46":0.04,"47":0.09,"48":0.07,"49":0.055,"50":0.055,"51":0.065,"52":0.06,"53":0.03,"54":0.05,"55":0.08,"56":0.01,"57":0.045,"58":0.03,"59":0.015,"60":0.025,"61":0.015,"62":0.01,"63":0.005,"64":0.015,"65":0.01,"69":0.015},"recentPoisson":{"10":0.005,"11":0.01,"12":0.005,"13":0.005,"14":0.03,"15":0.035,"16":0.045,"17":0.025,"18":0.05,"19":0.1,"20":0.07,"21":0.085,"22":0.065,"23":0.08,"24":0.115,"25":0.055,"26":0.03,"27":0.045,"28":0.05,"29":0.04,"30":0.02,"31":0.015,"32":0.02},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"7":0.005,"8":0.01,"10":0.015,"12":0.025,"13":0.01,"14":0.055,"15":0.045,"16":0.055,"17":0.04,"18":0.05,"19":0.07,"20":0.02,"21":0.055,"22":0.02,"23":0.08,"24":0.055,"25":0.065,"26":0.035,"27":0.07,"28":0.03,"29":0.025,"30":0.02,"31":0.025,"32":0.02,"33":0.02,"34":0.015,"35":0.005,"36":0.01,"37":0.005,"39":0.01,"40":0.015,"42":0.005,"44":0.01,"46":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1634428800000,"validUntil":1637020800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":3,"actual":3,"trainingCount":4799,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2021","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":1.33445,"mean":5.97,"median":5,"bias":2.9699999999999998,"maeMean":2.9699999999999998,"maeMedian":2,"low":1,"high":13,"coverage":true,"width":12,"pitLower":0.18,"pitUpper":0.33,"empiricalMass":0.15,"logScore":1.8971199848858813},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.7025000000000001,"mean":4.42,"median":4,"bias":1.42,"maeMean":1.42,"maeMedian":1,"low":1,"high":11,"coverage":true,"width":10,"pitLower":0.29,"pitUpper":0.485,"empiricalMass":0.195,"logScore":1.6347557204183902},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":1.6126999999999998,"mean":6.8,"median":6,"bias":3.8,"maeMean":3.8,"maeMedian":3,"low":1,"high":18,"coverage":true,"width":17,"pitLower":0.175,"pitUpper":0.295,"empiricalMass":0.12,"logScore":2.120263536200091},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":2.239025,"mean":6.685,"median":6,"bias":3.6849999999999996,"maeMean":3.6849999999999996,"maeMedian":3,"low":3,"high":12,"coverage":true,"width":9,"pitLower":0.025,"pitUpper":0.105,"empiricalMass":0.08,"logScore":2.5257286443082556},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.5207249999999999,"mean":2.225,"median":2,"bias":-0.7749999999999999,"maeMean":0.7749999999999999,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.62,"pitUpper":0.845,"empiricalMass":0.225,"logScore":1.491654876777717},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.5577,"mean":2.31,"median":2,"bias":-0.69,"maeMean":0.69,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":6,"coverage":true,"width":6,"pitLower":0.62,"pitUpper":0.805,"empiricalMass":0.185,"logScore":1.6873994539038122}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.025,"1":0.05,"2":0.105,"3":0.15,"4":0.11,"5":0.1,"6":0.12,"7":0.08,"8":0.03,"9":0.045,"10":0.02,"11":0.04,"12":0.06,"13":0.025,"14":0.01,"15":0.01,"18":0.005,"20":0.01,"26":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.035,"1":0.105,"2":0.15,"3":0.195,"4":0.125,"5":0.095,"6":0.07,"7":0.07,"8":0.065,"9":0.015,"10":0.02,"11":0.025,"12":0.01,"14":0.01,"15":0.005,"16":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.005,"1":0.07,"2":0.1,"3":0.12,"4":0.14,"5":0.06,"6":0.09,"7":0.085,"8":0.06,"9":0.06,"10":0.055,"11":0.02,"13":0.015,"14":0.025,"15":0.01,"16":0.005,"17":0.01,"18":0.025,"19":0.01,"20":0.015,"21":0.005,"24":0.005,"26":0.005,"29":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"1":0.005,"2":0.02,"3":0.08,"4":0.135,"5":0.12,"6":0.15,"7":0.15,"8":0.105,"9":0.075,"10":0.065,"11":0.035,"12":0.03,"13":0.02,"14":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.085,"1":0.23,"2":0.305,"3":0.225,"4":0.08,"5":0.06,"6":0.015},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.11,"1":0.22,"2":0.29,"3":0.185,"4":0.09,"5":0.05,"6":0.04,"7":0.015}}},{"issuedAt":1634428800000,"validUntil":1637020800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4799,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2021","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.19105000000000005,"mean":0.68,"median":0,"bias":0.68,"maeMean":0.68,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.6,"empiricalMass":0.6,"logScore":0.5108256237659907},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.184875,"mean":0.625,"median":0,"bias":0.625,"maeMean":0.625,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.595,"empiricalMass":0.595,"logScore":0.5191938734365074},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.2816000000000001,"mean":0.81,"median":0,"bias":0.81,"maeMean":0.81,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.52,"empiricalMass":0.52,"logScore":0.6539264674066639},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.30255,"mean":0.74,"median":1,"bias":0.74,"maeMean":0.74,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.49,"empiricalMass":0.49,"logScore":0.7133498878774648},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.013225,"mean":0.115,"median":0,"bias":0.115,"maeMean":0.115,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.885,"empiricalMass":0.885,"logScore":0.12216763397420753},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.034324999999999994,"mean":0.195,"median":0,"bias":0.195,"maeMean":0.195,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.815,"empiricalMass":0.815,"logScore":0.2045671657412744}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.6,"1":0.235,"2":0.11,"3":0.035,"4":0.01,"8":0.01},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.595,"1":0.275,"2":0.07,"3":0.045,"4":0.005,"5":0.005,"6":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.52,"1":0.27,"2":0.13,"3":0.055,"4":0.02,"7":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.49,"1":0.305,"2":0.185,"3":0.015,"4":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.885,"1":0.115},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.815,"1":0.175,"2":0.01}}},{"issuedAt":1637020800000,"validUntil":1637107200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":2,"actual":1,"trainingCount":4824,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2021","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.308725,"mean":1.255,"median":1,"bias":0.2549999999999999,"maeMean":0.2549999999999999,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.435,"pitUpper":0.72,"empiricalMass":0.285,"logScore":1.2552660987134867},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.37105,"mean":1.08,"median":0,"bias":0.08000000000000007,"maeMean":0.08000000000000007,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.56,"pitUpper":0.79,"empiricalMass":0.23,"logScore":1.4696759700589417},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.32852500000000007,"mean":1.225,"median":1,"bias":0.2250000000000001,"maeMean":0.2250000000000001,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.475,"pitUpper":0.745,"empiricalMass":0.27,"logScore":1.3093333199837622},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.34782499999999994,"mean":1.685,"median":1,"bias":0.685,"maeMean":0.685,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.195,"pitUpper":0.525,"empiricalMass":0.33,"logScore":1.1086626245216111},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.24074999999999996,"mean":0.81,"median":1,"bias":-0.18999999999999995,"maeMean":0.18999999999999995,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.44,"pitUpper":0.785,"empiricalMass":0.345,"logScore":1.0642108619507773},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.26260000000000006,"mean":0.87,"median":1,"bias":-0.13,"maeMean":0.13,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.455,"pitUpper":0.775,"empiricalMass":0.32,"logScore":1.1394342831883648}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.435,"1":0.285,"2":0.115,"3":0.075,"4":0.03,"5":0.03,"6":0.005,"7":0.005,"8":0.005,"9":0.01,"10":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.56,"1":0.23,"2":0.13,"3":0.04,"4":0.015,"6":0.005,"14":0.005,"16":0.005,"18":0.005,"28":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.475,"1":0.27,"2":0.105,"3":0.055,"4":0.03,"5":0.03,"6":0.025,"14":0.005,"18":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.195,"1":0.33,"2":0.2,"3":0.19,"4":0.05,"5":0.025,"6":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.44,"1":0.345,"2":0.185,"3":0.025,"4":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.455,"1":0.32,"2":0.16,"3":0.04,"4":0.015,"5":0.01}}},{"issuedAt":1637020800000,"validUntil":1637107200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":3,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4824,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2021","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.008324999999999999,"mean":0.105,"median":0,"bias":0.105,"maeMean":0.105,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.91,"empiricalMass":0.91,"logScore":0.09431067947124129},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.01015000000000002,"mean":0.14,"median":0,"bias":0.14,"maeMean":0.14,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.905,"empiricalMass":0.905,"logScore":0.0998203352822109},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.007949999999999999,"mean":0.13,"median":0,"bias":0.13,"maeMean":0.13,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.915,"empiricalMass":0.915,"logScore":0.0888312137066157},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.04242500000000002,"mean":0.225,"median":0,"bias":0.225,"maeMean":0.225,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.795,"empiricalMass":0.795,"logScore":0.2294131643278051},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.010099999999999998,"mean":0.11,"median":0,"bias":0.11,"maeMean":0.11,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.9,"empiricalMass":0.9,"logScore":0.10536051565782628},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.006425,"mean":0.085,"median":0,"bias":0.085,"maeMean":0.085,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.92,"empiricalMass":0.92,"logScore":0.08338160893905101}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.91,"1":0.075,"2":0.015},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.905,"1":0.065,"2":0.015,"3":0.015},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.915,"1":0.06,"2":0.02,"6":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.795,"1":0.185,"2":0.02},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.9,"1":0.09,"2":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.92,"1":0.075,"2":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1637020800000,"validUntil":1637107200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4824,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2021","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.00002499999999999985,"mean":0.005,"median":0,"bias":0.005,"maeMean":0.005,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.995,"empiricalMass":0.995,"logScore":0.005012541823544286},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.0009250000000000022,"mean":0.035,"median":0,"bias":0.035,"maeMean":0.035,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.97,"empiricalMass":0.97,"logScore":0.030459207484708574},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.0002500000000000002,"mean":0.02,"median":0,"bias":0.02,"maeMean":0.02,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.985,"empiricalMass":0.985,"logScore":0.015113637810048184},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.0006250000000000006,"mean":0.025,"median":0,"bias":0.025,"maeMean":0.025,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.975,"empiricalMass":0.975,"logScore":0.025317807984289897},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.00002499999999999985,"mean":0.005,"median":0,"bias":0.005,"maeMean":0.005,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.995,"empiricalMass":0.995,"logScore":0.005012541823544286},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.00002499999999999985,"mean":0.005,"median":0,"bias":0.005,"maeMean":0.005,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.995,"empiricalMass":0.995,"logScore":0.005012541823544286}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.995,"1":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.97,"1":0.025,"2":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.985,"1":0.01,"2":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.975,"1":0.025},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.995,"1":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.995,"1":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1637020800000,"validUntil":1637625600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":2,"actual":8,"trainingCount":4824,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2021","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":1.8372000000000002,"mean":11.78,"median":9,"bias":3.7799999999999994,"maeMean":3.7799999999999994,"maeMedian":1,"low":2,"high":30,"coverage":true,"width":28,"pitLower":0.39,"pitUpper":0.47,"empiricalMass":0.08,"logScore":2.5257286443082556},"rollingETAS":{"crps":1.1841249999999999,"mean":6.995,"median":6,"bias":-1.005,"maeMean":1.005,"maeMedian":2,"low":2,"high":15,"coverage":true,"width":13,"pitLower":0.615,"pitUpper":0.735,"empiricalMass":0.12,"logScore":2.120263536200091},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":1.3218249999999996,"mean":10.095,"median":8,"bias":2.0950000000000006,"maeMean":2.0950000000000006,"maeMedian":0,"low":2,"high":24,"coverage":true,"width":22,"pitLower":0.47,"pitUpper":0.565,"empiricalMass":0.095,"logScore":2.353878387381596},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":2.375375,"mean":11.915,"median":12,"bias":3.914999999999999,"maeMean":3.914999999999999,"maeMedian":4,"low":6,"high":18,"coverage":true,"width":12,"pitLower":0.11,"pitUpper":0.15,"empiricalMass":0.04,"logScore":3.2188758248682006},"recentPoisson":{"crps":2.03595,"mean":4.97,"median":5,"bias":-3.0300000000000002,"maeMean":3.0300000000000002,"maeMedian":3,"low":2,"high":9,"coverage":true,"width":7,"pitLower":0.84,"pitUpper":0.905,"empiricalMass":0.065,"logScore":2.7333680090865},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":1.7489250000000003,"mean":5.475,"median":5,"bias":-2.5250000000000004,"maeMean":2.5250000000000004,"maeMedian":3,"low":1,"high":12,"coverage":true,"width":11,"pitLower":0.755,"pitUpper":0.84,"empiricalMass":0.085,"logScore":2.4651040224918206}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.01,"1":0.01,"2":0.04,"3":0.05,"4":0.06,"5":0.06,"6":0.09,"7":0.07,"8":0.08,"9":0.055,"10":0.035,"11":0.035,"12":0.045,"13":0.06,"14":0.02,"15":0.04,"16":0.005,"17":0.035,"18":0.025,"19":0.015,"20":0.015,"21":0.005,"22":0.02,"23":0.01,"24":0.01,"25":0.01,"27":0.015,"28":0.005,"29":0.015,"30":0.01,"32":0.01,"33":0.015,"34":0.005,"35":0.005,"36":0.005,"61":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.01,"1":0.035,"2":0.075,"3":0.1,"4":0.085,"5":0.12,"6":0.11,"7":0.08,"8":0.12,"9":0.03,"10":0.085,"11":0.045,"12":0.03,"13":0.005,"14":0.01,"15":0.01,"16":0.01,"18":0.02,"20":0.005,"22":0.005,"32":0.005,"34":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"1":0.03,"2":0.055,"3":0.085,"4":0.06,"5":0.09,"6":0.065,"7":0.085,"8":0.095,"9":0.06,"10":0.045,"11":0.04,"12":0.045,"13":0.035,"14":0.035,"15":0.015,"16":0.025,"17":0.02,"18":0.02,"19":0.015,"20":0.01,"23":0.01,"24":0.02,"25":0.01,"26":0.005,"27":0.005,"35":0.005,"42":0.005,"73":0.005,"113":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"3":0.005,"5":0.015,"6":0.055,"7":0.035,"8":0.04,"9":0.115,"10":0.085,"11":0.085,"12":0.14,"13":0.125,"14":0.1,"15":0.04,"16":0.06,"17":0.03,"18":0.035,"19":0.02,"20":0.005,"21":0.005,"24":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.005,"1":0.04,"2":0.105,"3":0.115,"4":0.185,"5":0.205,"6":0.115,"7":0.07,"8":0.065,"9":0.05,"10":0.035,"11":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.02,"1":0.075,"2":0.09,"3":0.125,"4":0.13,"5":0.13,"6":0.115,"7":0.07,"8":0.085,"9":0.04,"10":0.045,"11":0.02,"12":0.025,"13":0.005,"14":0.005,"17":0.015,"19":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1637020800000,"validUntil":1637625600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":3,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4824,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2021","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.6303749999999999,"mean":1.535,"median":1,"bias":1.535,"maeMean":1.535,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.355,"empiricalMass":0.355,"logScore":1.0356374895067213},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.33825000000000005,"mean":0.89,"median":1,"bias":0.89,"maeMean":0.89,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.47,"empiricalMass":0.47,"logScore":0.7550225842780328},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.4286,"mean":1.18,"median":1,"bias":1.18,"maeMean":1.18,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.43,"empiricalMass":0.43,"logScore":0.843970070294529},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.9123500000000001,"mean":1.58,"median":1,"bias":1.58,"maeMean":1.58,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.2,"empiricalMass":0.2,"logScore":1.6094379124341003},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.158325,"mean":0.495,"median":0,"bias":0.495,"maeMean":0.495,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.615,"empiricalMass":0.615,"logScore":0.4861330111756192},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.21615000000000006,"mean":0.56,"median":0,"bias":0.56,"maeMean":0.56,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.545,"empiricalMass":0.545,"logScore":0.6069694843188929}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.355,"1":0.285,"2":0.125,"3":0.1,"4":0.04,"5":0.05,"6":0.03,"7":0.01,"8":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.47,"1":0.31,"2":0.135,"3":0.045,"4":0.03,"5":0.005,"6":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.43,"1":0.28,"2":0.17,"3":0.07,"4":0.01,"5":0.025,"8":0.005,"10":0.005,"19":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.2,"1":0.34,"2":0.22,"3":0.19,"4":0.025,"5":0.02,"6":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.615,"1":0.285,"2":0.09,"3":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.545,"1":0.36,"2":0.085,"3":0.01}}},{"issuedAt":1637020800000,"validUntil":1637625600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4824,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2021","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.026249999999999996,"mean":0.19,"median":0,"bias":0.19,"maeMean":0.19,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.84,"empiricalMass":0.84,"logScore":0.1743533871447778},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.010024999999999992,"mean":0.105,"median":0,"bias":0.105,"maeMean":0.105,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.9,"empiricalMass":0.9,"logScore":0.10536051565782628},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.013075000000000003,"mean":0.165,"median":0,"bias":0.165,"maeMean":0.165,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.89,"empiricalMass":0.89,"logScore":0.11653381625595151},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.02312499999999998,"mean":0.175,"median":0,"bias":0.175,"maeMean":0.175,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.85,"empiricalMass":0.85,"logScore":0.16251892949777494},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.0016250000000000014,"mean":0.045,"median":0,"bias":0.045,"maeMean":0.045,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.96,"empiricalMass":0.96,"logScore":0.040821994520255166},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.0016000000000000042,"mean":0.04,"median":0,"bias":0.04,"maeMean":0.04,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.96,"empiricalMass":0.96,"logScore":0.040821994520255166}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.84,"1":0.135,"2":0.02,"3":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.9,"1":0.095,"2":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.89,"1":0.085,"2":0.01,"3":0.005,"4":0.005,"5":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.85,"1":0.125,"2":0.025},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.96,"1":0.035,"2":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.96,"1":0.04}}},{"issuedAt":1637020800000,"validUntil":1639612800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":2,"actual":24,"trainingCount":4824,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2021","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":13.9433,"mean":49.17,"median":44.5,"bias":25.17,"maeMean":25.17,"maeMedian":20.5,"low":21,"high":99,"coverage":true,"width":78,"pitLower":0.075,"pitUpper":0.08,"empiricalMass":0.005,"logScore":5.298317366548036},"rollingETAS":{"crps":4.246275000000001,"mean":34.135,"median":30,"bias":10.134999999999998,"maeMean":10.134999999999998,"maeMedian":6,"low":17,"high":70,"coverage":true,"width":53,"pitLower":0.195,"pitUpper":0.26,"empiricalMass":0.065,"logScore":2.7333680090865},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":13.2267,"mean":48.71,"median":43,"bias":24.71,"maeMean":24.71,"maeMedian":19,"low":21,"high":101,"coverage":true,"width":80,"pitLower":0.07,"pitUpper":0.08,"empiricalMass":0.01,"logScore":4.605170185988091},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":22.5389,"mean":50.51,"median":50.5,"bias":26.509999999999998,"maeMean":26.509999999999998,"maeMedian":26.5,"low":39,"high":62,"coverage":false,"width":23,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentPoisson":{"crps":1.3609500000000003,"mean":22.2,"median":22,"bias":-1.8000000000000007,"maeMean":1.8000000000000007,"maeMedian":2,"low":15,"high":30,"coverage":true,"width":15,"pitLower":0.595,"pitUpper":0.67,"empiricalMass":0.075,"logScore":2.5902671654458267},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":2.0691499999999996,"mean":22.19,"median":21,"bias":-1.8099999999999987,"maeMean":1.8099999999999987,"maeMedian":3,"low":11,"high":38,"coverage":true,"width":27,"pitLower":0.605,"pitUpper":0.66,"empiricalMass":0.055,"logScore":2.900422093749666}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"14":0.005,"16":0.01,"17":0.005,"18":0.005,"19":0.01,"20":0.01,"21":0.005,"23":0.025,"24":0.005,"25":0.02,"26":0.01,"27":0.02,"28":0.015,"29":0.01,"30":0.03,"31":0.01,"32":0.015,"33":0.015,"34":0.025,"35":0.03,"36":0.015,"37":0.045,"38":0.02,"39":0.025,"40":0.02,"41":0.01,"42":0.015,"43":0.03,"44":0.04,"45":0.01,"46":0.015,"47":0.025,"49":0.025,"50":0.035,"51":0.04,"52":0.03,"53":0.01,"54":0.02,"55":0.015,"56":0.015,"57":0.02,"58":0.02,"59":0.015,"61":0.005,"62":0.015,"63":0.015,"64":0.01,"65":0.01,"66":0.015,"67":0.01,"68":0.005,"69":0.01,"70":0.005,"71":0.005,"73":0.005,"75":0.005,"85":0.005,"90":0.005,"91":0.005,"92":0.005,"93":0.01,"96":0.005,"99":0.015,"102":0.005,"103":0.005,"105":0.005,"109":0.005,"126":0.005,"128":0.005,"144":0.005,"185":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"9":0.005,"10":0.005,"11":0.005,"12":0.005,"15":0.01,"16":0.015,"17":0.005,"18":0.005,"19":0.025,"20":0.025,"21":0.03,"22":0.015,"23":0.045,"24":0.065,"25":0.025,"26":0.045,"27":0.045,"28":0.04,"29":0.05,"30":0.055,"31":0.065,"32":0.03,"33":0.025,"34":0.02,"35":0.025,"36":0.01,"37":0.03,"38":0.03,"39":0.01,"40":0.01,"41":0.02,"42":0.02,"44":0.01,"45":0.025,"46":0.005,"47":0.01,"48":0.005,"49":0.01,"50":0.015,"51":0.005,"52":0.01,"58":0.01,"60":0.005,"63":0.005,"68":0.015,"70":0.005,"72":0.005,"73":0.005,"77":0.01,"79":0.005,"83":0.005,"85":0.005,"86":0.005,"93":0.005,"95":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"16":0.005,"17":0.01,"18":0.01,"19":0.005,"20":0.005,"21":0.02,"22":0.01,"23":0.005,"24":0.01,"25":0.01,"26":0.025,"27":0.015,"28":0.005,"29":0.025,"30":0.02,"31":0.04,"32":0.015,"33":0.04,"34":0.01,"35":0.015,"36":0.015,"37":0.035,"38":0.03,"39":0.025,"40":0.015,"41":0.05,"42":0.015,"43":0.03,"44":0.02,"45":0.03,"46":0.02,"47":0.01,"48":0.04,"49":0.01,"50":0.01,"51":0.005,"52":0.005,"53":0.035,"54":0.02,"55":0.01,"56":0.015,"57":0.015,"58":0.015,"59":0.02,"60":0.01,"62":0.01,"64":0.005,"65":0.005,"68":0.005,"69":0.005,"70":0.005,"71":0.005,"72":0.01,"73":0.01,"74":0.01,"75":0.01,"76":0.005,"77":0.005,"79":0.02,"82":0.01,"88":0.005,"90":0.005,"94":0.005,"100":0.005,"101":0.01,"102":0.005,"103":0.01,"106":0.005,"110":0.005,"112":0.005,"118":0.005,"143":0.005,"181":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"29":0.005,"31":0.005,"33":0.005,"35":0.01,"36":0.005,"38":0.005,"39":0.015,"40":0.02,"41":0.02,"42":0.02,"43":0.04,"44":0.035,"45":0.06,"46":0.06,"47":0.04,"48":0.05,"49":0.045,"50":0.06,"51":0.045,"52":0.065,"53":0.05,"54":0.06,"55":0.065,"56":0.02,"57":0.015,"58":0.06,"59":0.015,"60":0.035,"61":0.01,"62":0.01,"63":0.015,"64":0.015,"65":0.005,"67":0.005,"69":0.005,"71":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"12":0.015,"13":0.01,"14":0.02,"15":0.045,"16":0.03,"17":0.055,"18":0.045,"19":0.085,"20":0.05,"21":0.07,"22":0.1,"23":0.07,"24":0.075,"25":0.105,"26":0.03,"27":0.065,"28":0.045,"29":0.025,"30":0.02,"31":0.025,"32":0.005,"33":0.005,"34":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"6":0.005,"7":0.01,"8":0.01,"9":0.01,"10":0.01,"11":0.02,"12":0.01,"13":0.02,"14":0.035,"15":0.05,"16":0.05,"17":0.085,"18":0.04,"19":0.045,"20":0.06,"21":0.055,"22":0.035,"23":0.055,"24":0.055,"25":0.065,"26":0.045,"27":0.015,"28":0.05,"29":0.025,"31":0.02,"32":0.01,"33":0.01,"34":0.025,"35":0.01,"36":0.005,"37":0.005,"38":0.02,"39":0.01,"40":0.005,"42":0.005,"44":0.005,"47":0.005,"55":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1637020800000,"validUntil":1639612800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":3,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4824,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2021","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":3.7034499999999997,"mean":5.93,"median":5,"bias":5.93,"maeMean":5.93,"maeMedian":5,"low":1,"high":14,"coverage":false,"width":13,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.035,"empiricalMass":0.035,"logScore":3.3524072174927233},"rollingETAS":{"crps":2.8036499999999993,"mean":4.56,"median":4,"bias":4.56,"maeMean":4.56,"maeMedian":4,"low":1,"high":11,"coverage":false,"width":10,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.03,"empiricalMass":0.03,"logScore":3.506557897319982},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":3.6951,"mean":5.83,"median":5,"bias":5.83,"maeMean":5.83,"maeMedian":5,"low":1,"high":14,"coverage":false,"width":13,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.02,"empiricalMass":0.02,"logScore":3.912023005428146},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":5.1503,"mean":6.66,"median":6,"bias":6.66,"maeMean":6.66,"maeMedian":6,"low":3,"high":11,"coverage":false,"width":8,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentPoisson":{"crps":1.4821000000000002,"mean":2.22,"median":2,"bias":2.22,"maeMean":2.22,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.09,"empiricalMass":0.09,"logScore":2.4079456086518722},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":1.3311749999999998,"mean":2.135,"median":2,"bias":2.135,"maeMean":2.135,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.115,"empiricalMass":0.115,"logScore":2.162823150618887}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.035,"1":0.055,"2":0.075,"3":0.15,"4":0.135,"5":0.09,"6":0.135,"7":0.07,"8":0.07,"9":0.045,"10":0.03,"11":0.02,"12":0.02,"13":0.005,"14":0.015,"15":0.01,"16":0.005,"18":0.005,"21":0.01,"22":0.01,"23":0.005,"24":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.03,"1":0.125,"2":0.13,"3":0.17,"4":0.15,"5":0.105,"6":0.085,"7":0.04,"8":0.04,"9":0.05,"10":0.01,"11":0.015,"12":0.01,"13":0.015,"14":0.005,"16":0.01,"17":0.01},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.02,"1":0.075,"2":0.11,"3":0.1,"4":0.13,"5":0.105,"6":0.12,"7":0.08,"8":0.07,"9":0.055,"10":0.035,"11":0.015,"12":0.005,"13":0.015,"14":0.015,"15":0.02,"16":0.015,"17":0.005,"25":0.01},"expandingPoisson":{"1":0.015,"2":0.03,"3":0.065,"4":0.1,"5":0.14,"6":0.185,"7":0.13,"8":0.08,"9":0.1,"10":0.06,"11":0.05,"12":0.025,"14":0.02},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.09,"1":0.22,"2":0.305,"3":0.22,"4":0.12,"5":0.025,"6":0.015,"7":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.115,"1":0.255,"2":0.295,"3":0.15,"4":0.125,"5":0.03,"6":0.02,"7":0.01}}},{"issuedAt":1637020800000,"validUntil":1639612800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4824,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2021","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.137125,"mean":0.615,"median":0,"bias":0.615,"maeMean":0.615,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.665,"empiricalMass":0.665,"logScore":0.4079682383262829},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.16357499999999997,"mean":0.615,"median":0,"bias":0.615,"maeMean":0.615,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.625,"empiricalMass":0.625,"logScore":0.4700036292457356},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.19757500000000006,"mean":0.665,"median":0,"bias":0.665,"maeMean":0.665,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.59,"empiricalMass":0.59,"logScore":0.527632742082372},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.39372499999999994,"mean":0.825,"median":1,"bias":0.825,"maeMean":0.825,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.4,"empiricalMass":0.4,"logScore":0.916290731874155},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.03084999999999999,"mean":0.19,"median":0,"bias":0.19,"maeMean":0.19,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.825,"empiricalMass":0.825,"logScore":0.19237189264745613},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.022724999999999995,"mean":0.165,"median":0,"bias":0.165,"maeMean":0.165,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.85,"empiricalMass":0.85,"logScore":0.16251892949777494}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.665,"1":0.205,"2":0.05,"3":0.045,"4":0.02,"5":0.005,"6":0.005,"8":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.625,"1":0.24,"2":0.075,"3":0.03,"4":0.015,"5":0.015},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.59,"1":0.255,"2":0.09,"3":0.03,"4":0.035},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.4,"1":0.42,"2":0.145,"3":0.025,"4":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.825,"1":0.16,"2":0.015},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.85,"1":0.135,"2":0.015}}},{"issuedAt":1639612800000,"validUntil":1639699200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":2,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4848,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2021","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.3769499999999999,"mean":1.17,"median":1,"bias":1.17,"maeMean":1.17,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.47,"empiricalMass":0.47,"logScore":0.7550225842780328},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.2846749999999999,"mean":0.825,"median":0,"bias":0.825,"maeMean":0.825,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.51,"empiricalMass":0.51,"logScore":0.6733445532637656},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.24287499999999995,"mean":0.875,"median":0,"bias":0.875,"maeMean":0.875,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.57,"empiricalMass":0.57,"logScore":0.5621189181535413},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":1.017225,"mean":1.705,"median":1,"bias":1.705,"maeMean":1.705,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.155,"empiricalMass":0.155,"logScore":1.8643301620628905},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.32647499999999996,"mean":0.705,"median":1,"bias":0.705,"maeMean":0.705,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.445,"empiricalMass":0.445,"logScore":0.8096809968158968},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.197675,"mean":0.585,"median":0,"bias":0.585,"maeMean":0.585,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.58,"empiricalMass":0.58,"logScore":0.5447271754416722}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.47,"1":0.27,"2":0.135,"3":0.04,"4":0.03,"5":0.015,"6":0.015,"7":0.015,"9":0.005,"15":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.51,"1":0.295,"2":0.125,"3":0.04,"4":0.005,"5":0.015,"6":0.005,"7":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.57,"1":0.21,"2":0.14,"3":0.045,"4":0.015,"8":0.005,"9":0.005,"10":0.005,"11":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.155,"1":0.36,"2":0.25,"3":0.125,"4":0.085,"5":0.02,"6":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.445,"1":0.42,"2":0.12,"3":0.015},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.58,"1":0.275,"2":0.13,"3":0.01,"4":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1639612800000,"validUntil":1639699200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":3,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4848,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2021","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.010700000000000015,"mean":0.14,"median":0,"bias":0.14,"maeMean":0.14,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.9,"empiricalMass":0.9,"logScore":0.10536051565782628},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.0053500000000000075,"mean":0.1,"median":0,"bias":0.1,"maeMean":0.1,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.93,"empiricalMass":0.93,"logScore":0.07257069283483537},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.007875000000000007,"mean":0.115,"median":0,"bias":0.115,"maeMean":0.115,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.915,"empiricalMass":0.915,"logScore":0.0888312137066157},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.030875000000000014,"mean":0.195,"median":0,"bias":0.195,"maeMean":0.195,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.825,"empiricalMass":0.825,"logScore":0.19237189264745613},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.004900000000000002,"mean":0.07,"median":0,"bias":0.07,"maeMean":0.07,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.93,"empiricalMass":0.93,"logScore":0.07257069283483537},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.0036250000000000032,"mean":0.065,"median":0,"bias":0.065,"maeMean":0.065,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.94,"empiricalMass":0.94,"logScore":0.06187540371808753}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.9,"1":0.075,"2":0.02,"5":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.93,"1":0.05,"2":0.015,"4":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.915,"1":0.06,"2":0.02,"3":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.825,"1":0.16,"2":0.01,"3":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.93,"1":0.07},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.94,"1":0.055,"2":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1639612800000,"validUntil":1639699200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4848,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2021","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.0006250000000000006,"mean":0.025,"median":0,"bias":0.025,"maeMean":0.025,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.975,"empiricalMass":0.975,"logScore":0.025317807984289897},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.0000999999999999994,"mean":0.01,"median":0,"bias":0.01,"maeMean":0.01,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.99,"empiricalMass":0.99,"logScore":0.01005033585350145},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.0006250000000000006,"mean":0.025,"median":0,"bias":0.025,"maeMean":0.025,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.975,"empiricalMass":0.975,"logScore":0.025317807984289897},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.000899999999999998,"mean":0.03,"median":0,"bias":0.03,"maeMean":0.03,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.97,"empiricalMass":0.97,"logScore":0.030459207484708574},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0,"mean":0,"median":0,"bias":0,"maeMean":0,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":1,"empiricalMass":1,"logScore":0},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.0002249999999999995,"mean":0.015,"median":0,"bias":0.015,"maeMean":0.015,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.985,"empiricalMass":0.985,"logScore":0.015113637810048184}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.975,"1":0.025},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.99,"1":0.01},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.975,"1":0.025},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.97,"1":0.03},"recentPoisson":{"0":1},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.985,"1":0.015}}},{"issuedAt":1639612800000,"validUntil":1640217600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":2,"actual":3,"trainingCount":4848,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2021","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":2.7899749999999996,"mean":9.115,"median":7,"bias":6.115,"maeMean":6.115,"maeMedian":4,"low":2,"high":22,"coverage":true,"width":20,"pitLower":0.1,"pitUpper":0.185,"empiricalMass":0.085,"logScore":2.4651040224918206},"rollingETAS":{"crps":2.05235,"mean":7.12,"median":6,"bias":4.12,"maeMean":4.12,"maeMedian":3,"low":2,"high":15,"coverage":true,"width":13,"pitLower":0.095,"pitUpper":0.17,"empiricalMass":0.075,"logScore":2.5902671654458267},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":3.5763499999999997,"mean":10.09,"median":8,"bias":7.09,"maeMean":7.09,"maeMedian":5,"low":2,"high":25,"coverage":true,"width":23,"pitLower":0.05,"pitUpper":0.125,"empiricalMass":0.075,"logScore":2.5902671654458267},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":6.5569,"mean":11.35,"median":11,"bias":8.35,"maeMean":8.35,"maeMedian":8,"low":6,"high":17,"coverage":false,"width":11,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.01,"empiricalMass":0.01,"logScore":4.605170185988091},"recentPoisson":{"crps":1.03835,"mean":4.89,"median":5,"bias":1.8899999999999997,"maeMean":1.8899999999999997,"maeMedian":2,"low":1,"high":8,"coverage":true,"width":7,"pitLower":0.135,"pitUpper":0.27,"empiricalMass":0.135,"logScore":2.0024805005437076},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":1.106775,"mean":5.295,"median":5,"bias":2.295,"maeMean":2.295,"maeMedian":2,"low":1,"high":10,"coverage":true,"width":9,"pitLower":0.115,"pitUpper":0.285,"empiricalMass":0.17,"logScore":1.7719568419318752}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.005,"1":0.03,"2":0.065,"3":0.085,"4":0.08,"5":0.1,"6":0.115,"7":0.075,"8":0.04,"9":0.07,"10":0.03,"11":0.03,"12":0.04,"13":0.03,"14":0.015,"15":0.02,"16":0.005,"17":0.01,"18":0.02,"19":0.04,"20":0.025,"21":0.015,"22":0.01,"24":0.005,"26":0.015,"27":0.01,"28":0.005,"37":0.005,"39":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.015,"1":0.025,"2":0.055,"3":0.075,"4":0.135,"5":0.11,"6":0.125,"7":0.1,"8":0.085,"9":0.06,"10":0.05,"11":0.05,"12":0.035,"13":0.01,"14":0.015,"15":0.01,"16":0.005,"17":0.005,"18":0.01,"23":0.005,"25":0.005,"26":0.005,"30":0.005,"35":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"1":0.015,"2":0.035,"3":0.075,"4":0.065,"5":0.07,"6":0.085,"7":0.065,"8":0.11,"9":0.09,"10":0.05,"11":0.055,"12":0.04,"13":0.025,"14":0.015,"15":0.045,"16":0.035,"17":0.015,"18":0.03,"19":0.005,"22":0.005,"23":0.01,"24":0.005,"25":0.005,"27":0.015,"28":0.01,"29":0.005,"31":0.005,"34":0.01,"72":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"3":0.01,"5":0.02,"6":0.03,"7":0.055,"8":0.04,"9":0.115,"10":0.145,"11":0.125,"12":0.145,"13":0.115,"14":0.045,"15":0.03,"16":0.045,"17":0.035,"18":0.015,"19":0.025,"20":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.005,"1":0.045,"2":0.085,"3":0.135,"4":0.195,"5":0.195,"6":0.1,"7":0.09,"8":0.105,"9":0.02,"10":0.015,"11":0.005,"12":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.02,"1":0.04,"2":0.055,"3":0.17,"4":0.2,"5":0.125,"6":0.105,"7":0.085,"8":0.05,"9":0.035,"10":0.065,"11":0.02,"12":0.01,"13":0.005,"14":0.01,"15":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1639612800000,"validUntil":1640217600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":3,"actual":1,"trainingCount":4848,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2021","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.327325,"mean":1.215,"median":1,"bias":0.21500000000000008,"maeMean":0.21500000000000008,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.445,"pitUpper":0.705,"empiricalMass":0.26,"logScore":1.3470736479666092},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.264775,"mean":0.985,"median":1,"bias":-0.015000000000000013,"maeMean":0.015000000000000013,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.44,"pitUpper":0.76,"empiricalMass":0.32,"logScore":1.1394342831883648},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.322025,"mean":1.275,"median":1,"bias":0.2749999999999999,"maeMean":0.2749999999999999,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.4,"pitUpper":0.645,"empiricalMass":0.245,"logScore":1.40649706843741},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.26254999999999995,"mean":1.44,"median":1,"bias":0.43999999999999995,"maeMean":0.43999999999999995,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.215,"pitUpper":0.57,"empiricalMass":0.355,"logScore":1.0356374895067213},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.40354999999999996,"mean":0.47,"median":0,"bias":-0.53,"maeMean":0.53,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.63,"pitUpper":0.92,"empiricalMass":0.29,"logScore":1.2378743560016174},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.39092499999999997,"mean":0.475,"median":0,"bias":-0.525,"maeMean":0.525,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.62,"pitUpper":0.92,"empiricalMass":0.3,"logScore":1.2039728043259361}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.445,"1":0.26,"2":0.125,"3":0.075,"4":0.035,"5":0.035,"6":0.015,"7":0.005,"8":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.44,"1":0.32,"2":0.135,"3":0.06,"4":0.025,"5":0.01,"6":0.005,"7":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.4,"1":0.245,"2":0.19,"3":0.08,"4":0.05,"5":0.025,"8":0.005,"9":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.215,"1":0.355,"2":0.26,"3":0.12,"4":0.045,"5":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.63,"1":0.29,"2":0.065,"3":0.01,"4":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.62,"1":0.3,"2":0.07,"3":0.005,"4":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1639612800000,"validUntil":1640217600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4848,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2021","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.017125,"mean":0.145,"median":0,"bias":0.145,"maeMean":0.145,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.87,"empiricalMass":0.87,"logScore":0.13926206733350766},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.01452500000000001,"mean":0.135,"median":0,"bias":0.135,"maeMean":0.135,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.88,"empiricalMass":0.88,"logScore":0.12783337150988489},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.015850000000000017,"mean":0.14,"median":0,"bias":0.14,"maeMean":0.14,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.875,"empiricalMass":0.875,"logScore":0.13353139262452263},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.03824999999999998,"mean":0.21,"median":0,"bias":0.21,"maeMean":0.21,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.805,"empiricalMass":0.805,"logScore":0.21691300156357363},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.00002499999999999985,"mean":0.005,"median":0,"bias":0.005,"maeMean":0.005,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.995,"empiricalMass":0.995,"logScore":0.005012541823544286},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.00040000000000000105,"mean":0.02,"median":0,"bias":0.02,"maeMean":0.02,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.98,"empiricalMass":0.98,"logScore":0.020202707317519466}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.87,"1":0.115,"2":0.015},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.88,"1":0.11,"2":0.005,"3":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.875,"1":0.11,"2":0.015},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.805,"1":0.18,"2":0.015},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.995,"1":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.98,"1":0.02}}},{"issuedAt":1639612800000,"validUntil":1642204800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":2,"actual":12,"trainingCount":4848,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2021","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":24.541225000000004,"mean":49.395,"median":45,"bias":37.395,"maeMean":37.395,"maeMedian":33,"low":22,"high":96,"coverage":false,"width":74,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"rollingETAS":{"crps":13.334274999999998,"mean":31.685,"median":29,"bias":19.685,"maeMean":19.685,"maeMedian":17,"low":17,"high":53,"coverage":false,"width":36,"pitLower":0.005,"pitUpper":0.015,"empiricalMass":0.01,"logScore":4.605170185988091},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":24.030749999999998,"mean":47.83,"median":41,"bias":35.83,"maeMean":35.83,"maeMedian":29,"low":22,"high":89,"coverage":false,"width":67,"pitLower":0.005,"pitUpper":0.005,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":34.39805,"mean":50.32,"median":51,"bias":38.32,"maeMean":38.32,"maeMedian":39,"low":38,"high":62,"coverage":false,"width":24,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentPoisson":{"crps":7.388974999999999,"mean":21.945,"median":21,"bias":9.945,"maeMean":9.945,"maeMedian":9,"low":15,"high":30,"coverage":false,"width":15,"pitLower":0.015,"pitUpper":0.015,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":5.943225,"mean":20.945,"median":20.5,"bias":8.945,"maeMean":8.945,"maeMedian":8.5,"low":13,"high":30,"coverage":false,"width":17,"pitLower":0.01,"pitUpper":0.045,"empiricalMass":0.035,"logScore":3.3524072174927233}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"16":0.005,"17":0.01,"18":0.005,"19":0.005,"20":0.01,"21":0.01,"22":0.005,"23":0.01,"25":0.035,"26":0.02,"27":0.035,"28":0.015,"29":0.03,"30":0.05,"31":0.02,"32":0.015,"33":0.015,"34":0.005,"35":0.02,"36":0.03,"37":0.02,"38":0.03,"39":0.015,"40":0.005,"41":0.035,"42":0.02,"43":0.005,"44":0.01,"45":0.015,"46":0.04,"47":0.035,"48":0.01,"49":0.04,"50":0.015,"51":0.01,"52":0.02,"53":0.01,"54":0.01,"55":0.02,"56":0.025,"57":0.025,"58":0.015,"59":0.01,"62":0.015,"65":0.005,"66":0.015,"68":0.015,"69":0.005,"70":0.005,"72":0.005,"74":0.01,"75":0.015,"76":0.005,"77":0.005,"78":0.005,"80":0.005,"81":0.005,"85":0.005,"86":0.005,"89":0.005,"90":0.005,"94":0.01,"95":0.005,"96":0.01,"98":0.005,"105":0.005,"109":0.005,"116":0.005,"118":0.01,"129":0.005,"149":0.005,"159":0.005,"162":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"10":0.005,"12":0.01,"14":0.005,"15":0.005,"16":0.01,"17":0.015,"18":0.025,"19":0.025,"20":0.05,"21":0.035,"22":0.01,"23":0.05,"24":0.035,"25":0.05,"26":0.065,"27":0.04,"28":0.045,"29":0.045,"30":0.035,"31":0.025,"32":0.045,"33":0.04,"34":0.035,"35":0.025,"36":0.03,"37":0.01,"39":0.015,"40":0.02,"41":0.015,"42":0.01,"43":0.01,"44":0.01,"45":0.01,"46":0.015,"47":0.01,"48":0.01,"49":0.01,"50":0.015,"51":0.005,"52":0.005,"53":0.02,"54":0.01,"57":0.005,"58":0.005,"60":0.005,"66":0.005,"69":0.005,"70":0.005,"74":0.005,"79":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"8":0.005,"13":0.005,"16":0.005,"18":0.015,"19":0.005,"21":0.01,"22":0.005,"23":0.01,"24":0.015,"25":0.015,"26":0.02,"27":0.01,"28":0.01,"29":0.02,"30":0.035,"31":0.02,"32":0.02,"33":0.025,"34":0.05,"35":0.03,"36":0.045,"37":0.025,"38":0.045,"39":0.02,"40":0.005,"41":0.035,"42":0.025,"43":0.02,"44":0.015,"45":0.025,"46":0.02,"47":0.005,"48":0.03,"49":0.015,"50":0.005,"51":0.01,"52":0.02,"53":0.02,"54":0.005,"55":0.01,"56":0.01,"57":0.005,"58":0.015,"59":0.005,"61":0.02,"62":0.005,"63":0.02,"64":0.02,"67":0.01,"68":0.005,"69":0.01,"70":0.005,"71":0.015,"72":0.01,"73":0.01,"77":0.01,"81":0.005,"84":0.005,"85":0.01,"86":0.005,"87":0.01,"88":0.005,"89":0.01,"92":0.005,"94":0.005,"98":0.005,"104":0.005,"106":0.005,"120":0.005,"138":0.005,"143":0.005,"178":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"28":0.005,"36":0.01,"37":0.02,"38":0.015,"39":0.015,"40":0.03,"41":0.025,"42":0.015,"43":0.025,"44":0.03,"45":0.055,"46":0.04,"47":0.06,"48":0.04,"49":0.06,"50":0.05,"51":0.06,"52":0.07,"53":0.07,"54":0.065,"55":0.02,"56":0.025,"57":0.035,"58":0.025,"59":0.025,"60":0.025,"61":0.02,"62":0.035,"63":0.01,"64":0.01,"68":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"10":0.005,"11":0.01,"13":0.01,"14":0.02,"15":0.03,"16":0.03,"17":0.06,"18":0.06,"19":0.08,"20":0.075,"21":0.125,"22":0.07,"23":0.085,"24":0.065,"25":0.04,"26":0.05,"27":0.065,"28":0.03,"29":0.035,"30":0.015,"31":0.025,"32":0.005,"34":0.005,"36":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"10":0.005,"11":0.005,"12":0.035,"13":0.05,"14":0.015,"15":0.04,"16":0.06,"17":0.08,"18":0.06,"19":0.065,"20":0.085,"21":0.08,"22":0.05,"23":0.07,"24":0.05,"25":0.055,"26":0.05,"27":0.03,"28":0.035,"29":0.01,"30":0.025,"31":0.01,"32":0.01,"33":0.005,"35":0.005,"37":0.01,"38":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1639612800000,"validUntil":1642204800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":3,"actual":2,"trainingCount":4848,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2021","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":1.8754749999999998,"mean":6.035,"median":5,"bias":4.035,"maeMean":4.035,"maeMedian":3,"low":1,"high":15,"coverage":true,"width":14,"pitLower":0.095,"pitUpper":0.2,"empiricalMass":0.105,"logScore":2.2537949288246137},"rollingETAS":{"crps":1.0436000000000003,"mean":4.18,"median":4,"bias":2.1799999999999997,"maeMean":2.1799999999999997,"maeMedian":2,"low":1,"high":9,"coverage":true,"width":8,"pitLower":0.135,"pitUpper":0.31,"empiricalMass":0.175,"logScore":1.742969305058623},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":1.63565,"mean":5.61,"median":5,"bias":3.6100000000000003,"maeMean":3.6100000000000003,"maeMedian":3,"low":1,"high":14,"coverage":true,"width":13,"pitLower":0.105,"pitUpper":0.245,"empiricalMass":0.14,"logScore":1.9661128563728327},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":3.4215,"mean":6.79,"median":7,"bias":4.79,"maeMean":4.79,"maeMedian":5,"low":3,"high":11,"coverage":false,"width":8,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.02,"empiricalMass":0.02,"logScore":3.912023005428146},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.34535000000000005,"mean":1.86,"median":2,"bias":-0.1399999999999999,"maeMean":0.1399999999999999,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.46,"pitUpper":0.7,"empiricalMass":0.24,"logScore":1.4271163556401458},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.3611500000000001,"mean":1.78,"median":1.5,"bias":-0.21999999999999997,"maeMean":0.21999999999999997,"maeMedian":0.5,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.5,"pitUpper":0.73,"empiricalMass":0.23,"logScore":1.4696759700589417}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.02,"1":0.075,"2":0.105,"3":0.125,"4":0.155,"5":0.1,"6":0.08,"7":0.055,"8":0.07,"9":0.05,"10":0.025,"11":0.035,"12":0.02,"13":0.015,"14":0.01,"15":0.01,"16":0.02,"17":0.005,"19":0.005,"23":0.005,"26":0.01,"29":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.02,"1":0.115,"2":0.175,"3":0.155,"4":0.15,"5":0.115,"6":0.115,"7":0.055,"8":0.035,"9":0.025,"10":0.015,"12":0.015,"16":0.005,"17":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.045,"1":0.06,"2":0.14,"3":0.135,"4":0.115,"5":0.085,"6":0.11,"7":0.085,"8":0.045,"9":0.045,"10":0.02,"11":0.02,"12":0.015,"13":0.02,"14":0.015,"16":0.01,"17":0.01,"18":0.01,"21":0.005,"26":0.005,"29":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"2":0.02,"3":0.09,"4":0.105,"5":0.065,"6":0.155,"7":0.205,"8":0.11,"9":0.12,"10":0.055,"11":0.055,"12":0.01,"13":0.005,"14":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.16,"1":0.3,"2":0.24,"3":0.175,"4":0.075,"5":0.045,"6":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.155,"1":0.345,"2":0.23,"3":0.16,"4":0.065,"5":0.035,"6":0.01}}},{"issuedAt":1639612800000,"validUntil":1642204800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4848,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2021","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.24527500000000002,"mean":0.745,"median":0,"bias":0.745,"maeMean":0.745,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.54,"empiricalMass":0.54,"logScore":0.616186139423817},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.1023,"mean":0.45,"median":0,"bias":0.45,"maeMean":0.45,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.7,"empiricalMass":0.7,"logScore":0.35667494393873245},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.18969999999999998,"mean":0.63,"median":0,"bias":0.63,"maeMean":0.63,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.585,"empiricalMass":0.585,"logScore":0.5361434317502807},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.293075,"mean":0.735,"median":1,"bias":0.735,"maeMean":0.735,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.485,"empiricalMass":0.485,"logScore":0.7236063880446539},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.0025000000000000022,"mean":0.05,"median":0,"bias":0.05,"maeMean":0.05,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.95,"empiricalMass":0.95,"logScore":0.05129329438755058},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.004924999999999999,"mean":0.075,"median":0,"bias":0.075,"maeMean":0.075,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.93,"empiricalMass":0.93,"logScore":0.07257069283483537}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.54,"1":0.295,"2":0.09,"3":0.05,"4":0.015,"6":0.01},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.7,"1":0.195,"2":0.07,"3":0.03,"5":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.585,"1":0.295,"2":0.075,"3":0.015,"4":0.02,"5":0.005,"7":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.485,"1":0.355,"2":0.115,"3":0.03,"4":0.015},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.95,"1":0.05},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.93,"1":0.065,"2":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1642204800000,"validUntil":1642291200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":2,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4860,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2022","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.29217499999999996,"mean":0.985,"median":0,"bias":0.985,"maeMean":0.985,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.515,"empiricalMass":0.515,"logScore":0.6635883783184009},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.26225,"mean":0.73,"median":0,"bias":0.73,"maeMean":0.73,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.52,"empiricalMass":0.52,"logScore":0.6539264674066639},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.251275,"mean":0.775,"median":0,"bias":0.775,"maeMean":0.775,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.535,"empiricalMass":0.535,"logScore":0.6254885320861304},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":1.12485,"mean":1.82,"median":2,"bias":1.82,"maeMean":1.82,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.14,"empiricalMass":0.14,"logScore":1.9661128563728327},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.329025,"mean":0.745,"median":1,"bias":0.745,"maeMean":0.745,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.45,"empiricalMass":0.45,"logScore":0.7985076962177716},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.23567500000000002,"mean":0.665,"median":0,"bias":0.665,"maeMean":0.665,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.54,"empiricalMass":0.54,"logScore":0.616186139423817}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.515,"1":0.28,"2":0.105,"3":0.05,"4":0.015,"5":0.01,"6":0.01,"7":0.01,"21":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.52,"1":0.31,"2":0.12,"3":0.03,"4":0.015,"6":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.535,"1":0.29,"2":0.115,"3":0.04,"4":0.01,"7":0.005,"12":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.14,"1":0.325,"2":0.235,"3":0.21,"4":0.06,"5":0.025,"6":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.45,"1":0.39,"2":0.13,"3":0.025,"4":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.54,"1":0.315,"2":0.09,"3":0.05,"4":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1642204800000,"validUntil":1642291200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":3,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4860,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2022","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.005950000000000011,"mean":0.1,"median":0,"bias":0.1,"maeMean":0.1,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.925,"empiricalMass":0.925,"logScore":0.0779615414697118},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.01112500000000001,"mean":0.115,"median":0,"bias":0.115,"maeMean":0.115,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.895,"empiricalMass":0.895,"logScore":0.11093156070728166},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.005650000000000002,"mean":0.08,"median":0,"bias":0.08,"maeMean":0.08,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.925,"empiricalMass":0.925,"logScore":0.0779615414697118},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.041325,"mean":0.245,"median":0,"bias":0.245,"maeMean":0.245,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.8,"empiricalMass":0.8,"logScore":0.2231435513142097},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.002024999999999999,"mean":0.045,"median":0,"bias":0.045,"maeMean":0.045,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.955,"empiricalMass":0.955,"logScore":0.046043938501406846},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.000899999999999998,"mean":0.03,"median":0,"bias":0.03,"maeMean":0.03,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.97,"empiricalMass":0.97,"logScore":0.030459207484708574}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.925,"1":0.06,"2":0.005,"3":0.01},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.895,"1":0.095,"2":0.01},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.925,"1":0.07,"2":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.8,"1":0.165,"2":0.025,"3":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.955,"1":0.045},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.97,"1":0.03}}},{"issuedAt":1642204800000,"validUntil":1642291200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4860,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2022","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.00002499999999999985,"mean":0.005,"median":0,"bias":0.005,"maeMean":0.005,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.995,"empiricalMass":0.995,"logScore":0.005012541823544286},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.00002499999999999985,"mean":0.005,"median":0,"bias":0.005,"maeMean":0.005,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.995,"empiricalMass":0.995,"logScore":0.005012541823544286},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.0001250000000000001,"mean":0.015,"median":0,"bias":0.015,"maeMean":0.015,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.99,"empiricalMass":0.99,"logScore":0.01005033585350145},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.0016000000000000042,"mean":0.04,"median":0,"bias":0.04,"maeMean":0.04,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.96,"empiricalMass":0.96,"logScore":0.040821994520255166},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.0000999999999999994,"mean":0.01,"median":0,"bias":0.01,"maeMean":0.01,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.99,"empiricalMass":0.99,"logScore":0.01005033585350145},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0,"mean":0,"median":0,"bias":0,"maeMean":0,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":1,"empiricalMass":1,"logScore":0}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.995,"1":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.995,"1":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.99,"1":0.005,"2":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.96,"1":0.04},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.99,"1":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":1}}},{"issuedAt":1642204800000,"validUntil":1642809600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":2,"actual":8,"trainingCount":4860,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2022","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":1.3013749999999997,"mean":8.715,"median":7,"bias":0.7149999999999999,"maeMean":0.7149999999999999,"maeMedian":1,"low":1,"high":19,"coverage":true,"width":18,"pitLower":0.505,"pitUpper":0.57,"empiricalMass":0.065,"logScore":2.7333680090865},"rollingETAS":{"crps":1.701025,"mean":6.425,"median":5,"bias":-1.5750000000000002,"maeMean":1.5750000000000002,"maeMedian":3,"low":2,"high":16,"coverage":true,"width":14,"pitLower":0.755,"pitUpper":0.82,"empiricalMass":0.065,"logScore":2.7333680090865},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":1.135275,"mean":9.665,"median":8,"bias":1.6649999999999991,"maeMean":1.6649999999999991,"maeMedian":0,"low":2,"high":21,"coverage":true,"width":19,"pitLower":0.48,"pitUpper":0.585,"empiricalMass":0.105,"logScore":2.2537949288246137},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":2.2010750000000003,"mean":11.725,"median":11.5,"bias":3.7249999999999996,"maeMean":3.7249999999999996,"maeMedian":3.5,"low":6,"high":17,"coverage":true,"width":11,"pitLower":0.1,"pitUpper":0.18,"empiricalMass":0.08,"logScore":2.5257286443082556},"recentPoisson":{"crps":2.193275,"mean":4.775,"median":5,"bias":-3.2249999999999996,"maeMean":3.2249999999999996,"maeMedian":3,"low":1,"high":9,"coverage":true,"width":8,"pitLower":0.88,"pitUpper":0.94,"empiricalMass":0.06,"logScore":2.8134107167600364},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":2.236925,"mean":4.775,"median":4.5,"bias":-3.2249999999999996,"maeMean":3.2249999999999996,"maeMedian":3.5,"low":1,"high":10,"coverage":true,"width":9,"pitLower":0.88,"pitUpper":0.91,"empiricalMass":0.03,"logScore":3.506557897319982}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.015,"1":0.035,"2":0.065,"3":0.065,"4":0.1,"5":0.075,"6":0.085,"7":0.065,"8":0.065,"9":0.085,"10":0.05,"11":0.05,"12":0.03,"13":0.045,"14":0.02,"15":0.015,"16":0.035,"17":0.005,"18":0.025,"19":0.02,"20":0.01,"21":0.005,"22":0.01,"24":0.005,"28":0.005,"29":0.005,"32":0.005,"53":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.01,"1":0.035,"2":0.1,"3":0.145,"4":0.135,"5":0.11,"6":0.135,"7":0.085,"8":0.065,"9":0.045,"10":0.01,"11":0.025,"12":0.01,"13":0.01,"14":0.015,"15":0.005,"16":0.01,"17":0.005,"18":0.015,"19":0.01,"20":0.005,"26":0.005,"48":0.005,"50":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.005,"1":0.01,"2":0.035,"3":0.055,"4":0.085,"5":0.07,"6":0.115,"7":0.105,"8":0.105,"9":0.03,"10":0.085,"11":0.05,"12":0.025,"13":0.04,"14":0.035,"15":0.03,"16":0.015,"17":0.02,"18":0.01,"19":0.015,"21":0.01,"23":0.005,"25":0.005,"28":0.005,"29":0.01,"32":0.005,"36":0.005,"42":0.005,"50":0.005,"62":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"4":0.005,"5":0.01,"6":0.035,"7":0.05,"8":0.08,"9":0.08,"10":0.11,"11":0.13,"12":0.085,"13":0.13,"14":0.085,"15":0.065,"16":0.055,"17":0.03,"18":0.025,"19":0.01,"20":0.015},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.005,"1":0.075,"2":0.075,"3":0.135,"4":0.18,"5":0.18,"6":0.16,"7":0.07,"8":0.06,"9":0.03,"10":0.015,"11":0.005,"12":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.025,"1":0.07,"2":0.1,"3":0.11,"4":0.195,"5":0.165,"6":0.12,"7":0.095,"8":0.03,"9":0.035,"10":0.015,"11":0.02,"12":0.005,"13":0.01,"14":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1642204800000,"validUntil":1642809600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":3,"actual":2,"trainingCount":4860,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2022","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.8172,"mean":1.06,"median":1,"bias":-0.94,"maeMean":0.94,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.74,"pitUpper":0.825,"empiricalMass":0.085,"logScore":2.4651040224918206},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.9286,"mean":0.83,"median":0,"bias":-1.17,"maeMean":1.17,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.79,"pitUpper":0.93,"empiricalMass":0.14,"logScore":1.9661128563728327},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.72405,"mean":1.11,"median":1,"bias":-0.8899999999999999,"maeMean":0.8899999999999999,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.72,"pitUpper":0.89,"empiricalMass":0.17,"logScore":1.7719568419318752},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.3814000000000001,"mean":1.56,"median":1,"bias":-0.43999999999999995,"maeMean":0.43999999999999995,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.545,"pitUpper":0.795,"empiricalMass":0.25,"logScore":1.3862943611198906},"recentPoisson":{"crps":1.2937,"mean":0.45,"median":0,"bias":-1.55,"maeMean":1.55,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.94,"pitUpper":0.98,"empiricalMass":0.04,"logScore":3.2188758248682006},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":1.256125,"mean":0.455,"median":0,"bias":-1.545,"maeMean":1.545,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.92,"pitUpper":0.99,"empiricalMass":0.07,"logScore":2.659260036932778}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.485,"1":0.255,"2":0.085,"3":0.125,"4":0.02,"5":0.015,"6":0.005,"7":0.005,"8":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.545,"1":0.245,"2":0.14,"3":0.03,"4":0.015,"5":0.01,"6":0.005,"7":0.005,"8":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.435,"1":0.285,"2":0.17,"3":0.06,"4":0.02,"5":0.01,"6":0.01,"11":0.005,"12":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.195,"1":0.35,"2":0.25,"3":0.145,"4":0.035,"5":0.015,"6":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.64,"1":0.3,"2":0.04,"3":0.01,"4":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.64,"1":0.28,"2":0.07,"3":0.005,"4":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1642204800000,"validUntil":1642809600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4860,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2022","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.003700000000000009,"mean":0.07,"median":0,"bias":0.07,"maeMean":0.07,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.94,"empiricalMass":0.94,"logScore":0.06187540371808753},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.011300000000000004,"mean":0.13,"median":0,"bias":0.13,"maeMean":0.13,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.895,"empiricalMass":0.895,"logScore":0.11093156070728166},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.01235,"mean":0.13,"median":0,"bias":0.13,"maeMean":0.13,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.89,"empiricalMass":0.89,"logScore":0.11653381625595151},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.02252499999999999,"mean":0.155,"median":0,"bias":0.155,"maeMean":0.155,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.85,"empiricalMass":0.85,"logScore":0.16251892949777494},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.0012250000000000039,"mean":0.035,"median":0,"bias":0.035,"maeMean":0.035,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.965,"empiricalMass":0.965,"logScore":0.03562717764315116},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.002024999999999999,"mean":0.045,"median":0,"bias":0.045,"maeMean":0.045,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.955,"empiricalMass":0.955,"logScore":0.046043938501406846}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.94,"1":0.05,"2":0.01},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.895,"1":0.09,"2":0.01,"4":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.89,"1":0.095,"2":0.01,"3":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.85,"1":0.145,"2":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.965,"1":0.035},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.955,"1":0.045}}},{"issuedAt":1642204800000,"validUntil":1644796800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":2,"actual":20,"trainingCount":4860,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2022","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":16.190575,"mean":50.455,"median":44,"bias":30.455,"maeMean":30.455,"maeMedian":24,"low":20,"high":111,"coverage":true,"width":91,"pitLower":0.02,"pitUpper":0.05,"empiricalMass":0.03,"logScore":3.506557897319982},"rollingETAS":{"crps":3.6205500000000006,"mean":28.96,"median":25,"bias":8.96,"maeMean":8.96,"maeMedian":5,"low":15,"high":58,"coverage":true,"width":43,"pitLower":0.225,"pitUpper":0.27,"empiricalMass":0.045,"logScore":3.101092789211817},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":13.896524999999999,"mean":44.435,"median":40,"bias":24.435000000000002,"maeMean":24.435000000000002,"maeMedian":20,"low":19,"high":81,"coverage":true,"width":62,"pitLower":0.055,"pitUpper":0.055,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":25.957925,"mean":49.365,"median":49,"bias":29.365000000000002,"maeMean":29.365000000000002,"maeMedian":29,"low":40,"high":60,"coverage":false,"width":20,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentPoisson":{"crps":1.0762749999999999,"mean":19.845,"median":19,"bias":-0.15500000000000114,"maeMean":0.15500000000000114,"maeMedian":1,"low":12,"high":29,"coverage":true,"width":17,"pitLower":0.51,"pitUpper":0.6,"empiricalMass":0.09,"logScore":2.4079456086518722},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":1.5144249999999997,"mean":20.425,"median":20,"bias":0.4250000000000007,"maeMean":0.4250000000000007,"maeMedian":0,"low":11,"high":33,"coverage":true,"width":22,"pitLower":0.495,"pitUpper":0.555,"empiricalMass":0.06,"logScore":2.8134107167600364}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"16":0.01,"17":0.005,"19":0.005,"20":0.03,"21":0.01,"22":0.025,"23":0.02,"24":0.015,"25":0.03,"26":0.02,"27":0.015,"28":0.015,"29":0.02,"30":0.02,"31":0.015,"32":0.03,"33":0.025,"34":0.015,"35":0.005,"36":0.01,"37":0.025,"38":0.025,"39":0.025,"40":0.035,"41":0.015,"42":0.01,"43":0.015,"44":0.04,"45":0.025,"46":0.025,"47":0.01,"48":0.01,"49":0.005,"50":0.02,"51":0.01,"52":0.005,"53":0.005,"54":0.03,"55":0.03,"56":0.015,"57":0.005,"58":0.005,"59":0.01,"60":0.005,"61":0.015,"62":0.015,"63":0.03,"64":0.005,"66":0.01,"67":0.005,"68":0.01,"70":0.005,"72":0.01,"74":0.005,"75":0.005,"77":0.005,"78":0.005,"79":0.005,"80":0.005,"83":0.01,"85":0.005,"86":0.01,"91":0.005,"92":0.005,"95":0.01,"101":0.005,"102":0.005,"104":0.005,"108":0.005,"111":0.005,"115":0.005,"118":0.01,"121":0.005,"131":0.005,"133":0.005,"142":0.005,"147":0.005,"158":0.005,"191":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"10":0.015,"11":0.005,"12":0.01,"13":0.005,"14":0.005,"15":0.025,"16":0.04,"17":0.04,"18":0.055,"19":0.025,"20":0.045,"21":0.045,"22":0.04,"23":0.05,"24":0.07,"25":0.035,"26":0.03,"27":0.05,"28":0.06,"29":0.05,"30":0.015,"31":0.015,"32":0.035,"33":0.03,"35":0.015,"36":0.01,"37":0.01,"39":0.025,"40":0.01,"41":0.01,"42":0.01,"43":0.005,"44":0.01,"45":0.01,"46":0.01,"50":0.015,"54":0.01,"58":0.005,"64":0.005,"67":0.01,"70":0.01,"80":0.005,"89":0.005,"96":0.005,"100":0.005,"101":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"7":0.005,"14":0.005,"15":0.01,"17":0.01,"18":0.015,"19":0.01,"21":0.015,"22":0.02,"23":0.015,"24":0.025,"25":0.01,"26":0.04,"27":0.025,"28":0.01,"29":0.015,"30":0.015,"31":0.025,"32":0.025,"33":0.03,"34":0.03,"35":0.055,"36":0.015,"37":0.02,"38":0.03,"39":0.02,"40":0.03,"41":0.02,"42":0.03,"43":0.015,"44":0.025,"45":0.02,"46":0.01,"47":0.015,"48":0.02,"49":0.015,"50":0.01,"51":0.01,"52":0.015,"53":0.01,"54":0.005,"55":0.01,"57":0.01,"58":0.01,"60":0.015,"61":0.02,"62":0.01,"63":0.01,"64":0.01,"65":0.01,"66":0.01,"67":0.005,"68":0.01,"69":0.015,"70":0.005,"71":0.005,"72":0.005,"74":0.005,"76":0.015,"78":0.01,"79":0.005,"81":0.01,"83":0.01,"86":0.01,"88":0.005,"94":0.005,"98":0.005,"103":0.005,"107":0.005,"173":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"35":0.005,"36":0.005,"37":0.005,"38":0.015,"39":0.005,"40":0.015,"41":0.025,"42":0.05,"43":0.045,"44":0.05,"45":0.055,"46":0.06,"47":0.07,"48":0.08,"49":0.07,"50":0.045,"51":0.045,"52":0.06,"53":0.06,"54":0.025,"55":0.05,"56":0.03,"57":0.03,"58":0.015,"59":0.025,"60":0.025,"62":0.01,"63":0.005,"64":0.01,"65":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"8":0.005,"10":0.005,"11":0.015,"12":0.025,"13":0.025,"14":0.035,"15":0.045,"16":0.07,"17":0.08,"18":0.14,"19":0.065,"20":0.09,"21":0.065,"22":0.08,"23":0.045,"24":0.065,"25":0.045,"26":0.025,"28":0.015,"29":0.03,"30":0.005,"31":0.005,"32":0.01,"35":0.005,"36":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"5":0.005,"7":0.005,"9":0.01,"10":0.015,"11":0.045,"12":0.015,"13":0.05,"14":0.04,"15":0.04,"16":0.055,"17":0.09,"18":0.07,"19":0.055,"20":0.06,"21":0.065,"22":0.04,"23":0.055,"24":0.035,"25":0.035,"26":0.045,"27":0.025,"28":0.03,"29":0.03,"30":0.01,"31":0.01,"32":0.005,"33":0.015,"34":0.005,"35":0.015,"37":0.01,"39":0.005,"40":0.005,"44":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1642204800000,"validUntil":1644796800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":3,"actual":5,"trainingCount":4860,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2022","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.9584250000000001,"mean":6.215,"median":5,"bias":1.2149999999999999,"maeMean":1.2149999999999999,"maeMedian":0,"low":1,"high":17,"coverage":true,"width":16,"pitLower":0.47,"pitUpper":0.565,"empiricalMass":0.095,"logScore":2.353878387381596},"rollingETAS":{"crps":1.2092,"mean":3.6,"median":3,"bias":-1.4,"maeMean":1.4,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":10,"coverage":true,"width":10,"pitLower":0.725,"pitUpper":0.825,"empiricalMass":0.1,"logScore":2.3025850929940455},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.8463999999999998,"mean":5.16,"median":4.5,"bias":0.16000000000000014,"maeMean":0.16000000000000014,"maeMedian":0.5,"low":1,"high":12,"coverage":true,"width":11,"pitLower":0.5,"pitUpper":0.62,"empiricalMass":0.12,"logScore":2.120263536200091},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.7899499999999999,"mean":6.32,"median":6,"bias":1.3200000000000003,"maeMean":1.3200000000000003,"maeMedian":1,"low":3,"high":10,"coverage":true,"width":7,"pitLower":0.205,"pitUpper":0.38,"empiricalMass":0.175,"logScore":1.742969305058623},"recentPoisson":{"crps":2.2331000000000003,"mean":2.02,"median":2,"bias":-2.98,"maeMean":2.98,"maeMedian":3,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":false,"width":4,"pitLower":0.95,"pitUpper":0.985,"empiricalMass":0.035,"logScore":3.3524072174927233},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":2.2181,"mean":2.03,"median":2,"bias":-2.97,"maeMean":2.97,"maeMedian":3,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.945,"pitUpper":0.98,"empiricalMass":0.035,"logScore":3.3524072174927233}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.025,"1":0.075,"2":0.115,"3":0.125,"4":0.13,"5":0.095,"6":0.075,"7":0.08,"8":0.045,"9":0.045,"10":0.035,"11":0.025,"12":0.02,"13":0.02,"14":0.015,"15":0.01,"16":0.01,"17":0.025,"18":0.01,"19":0.005,"22":0.005,"24":0.005,"38":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.09,"1":0.13,"2":0.245,"3":0.11,"4":0.15,"5":0.1,"6":0.025,"7":0.035,"8":0.025,"9":0.025,"10":0.03,"11":0.025,"13":0.005,"18":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.035,"1":0.115,"2":0.09,"3":0.165,"4":0.095,"5":0.12,"6":0.075,"7":0.075,"8":0.055,"9":0.055,"10":0.035,"11":0.015,"12":0.02,"13":0.025,"14":0.01,"15":0.005,"16":0.005,"21":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.005,"1":0.015,"2":0.025,"3":0.065,"4":0.095,"5":0.175,"6":0.17,"7":0.13,"8":0.125,"9":0.125,"10":0.04,"11":0.015,"12":0.01,"13":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.145,"1":0.275,"2":0.24,"3":0.175,"4":0.115,"5":0.035,"6":0.005,"7":0.005,"8":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.15,"1":0.245,"2":0.275,"3":0.165,"4":0.11,"5":0.035,"6":0.015,"7":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1642204800000,"validUntil":1644796800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":4,"actual":1,"trainingCount":4860,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2022","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.32055,"mean":0.86,"median":0,"bias":-0.14,"maeMean":0.14,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.51,"pitUpper":0.78,"empiricalMass":0.27,"logScore":1.3093333199837622},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.44344999999999996,"mean":0.55,"median":0,"bias":-0.44999999999999996,"maeMean":0.44999999999999996,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.65,"pitUpper":0.865,"empiricalMass":0.215,"logScore":1.5371172508544744},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.44152499999999995,"mean":0.505,"median":0,"bias":-0.495,"maeMean":0.495,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.655,"pitUpper":0.895,"empiricalMass":0.24,"logScore":1.4271163556401458},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.23432500000000006,"mean":0.755,"median":1,"bias":-0.245,"maeMean":0.245,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.455,"pitUpper":0.84,"empiricalMass":0.385,"logScore":0.9545119446943529},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.8556250000000001,"mean":0.075,"median":0,"bias":-0.925,"maeMean":0.925,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0.925,"pitUpper":1,"empiricalMass":0.075,"logScore":2.5902671654458267},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.865,"mean":0.08,"median":0,"bias":-0.92,"maeMean":0.92,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0.93,"pitUpper":0.99,"empiricalMass":0.06,"logScore":2.8134107167600364}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.51,"1":0.27,"2":0.115,"3":0.075,"4":0.02,"5":0.005,"6":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.65,"1":0.215,"2":0.085,"3":0.035,"4":0.015},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.655,"1":0.24,"2":0.07,"3":0.02,"4":0.01,"5":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.455,"1":0.385,"2":0.12,"3":0.03,"4":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.925,"1":0.075},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.93,"1":0.06,"2":0.01}}},{"issuedAt":1644796800000,"validUntil":1644883200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":2,"actual":1,"trainingCount":4880,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2022","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.35230000000000006,"mean":1.15,"median":1,"bias":0.1499999999999999,"maeMean":0.1499999999999999,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.485,"pitUpper":0.715,"empiricalMass":0.23,"logScore":1.4696759700589417},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.302925,"mean":1.025,"median":1,"bias":0.02499999999999991,"maeMean":0.02499999999999991,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.485,"pitUpper":0.765,"empiricalMass":0.28,"logScore":1.2729656758128873},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.3591000000000001,"mean":1.39,"median":1,"bias":0.3899999999999999,"maeMean":0.3899999999999999,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":6,"coverage":true,"width":6,"pitLower":0.47,"pitUpper":0.705,"empiricalMass":0.235,"logScore":1.448169764837978},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.429025,"mean":1.825,"median":2,"bias":0.825,"maeMean":0.825,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.17,"pitUpper":0.44,"empiricalMass":0.27,"logScore":1.3093333199837622},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.32084999999999997,"mean":0.65,"median":0,"bias":-0.35,"maeMean":0.35,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.545,"pitUpper":0.85,"empiricalMass":0.305,"logScore":1.1874435023747254},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.266475,"mean":0.835,"median":1,"bias":-0.16500000000000004,"maeMean":0.16500000000000004,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.46,"pitUpper":0.775,"empiricalMass":0.315,"logScore":1.155182640156504}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.485,"1":0.23,"2":0.125,"3":0.08,"4":0.03,"5":0.02,"6":0.015,"8":0.015},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.485,"1":0.28,"2":0.135,"3":0.065,"4":0.015,"5":0.01,"10":0.005,"24":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.47,"1":0.235,"2":0.13,"3":0.055,"4":0.04,"5":0.015,"6":0.015,"7":0.01,"8":0.005,"9":0.01,"11":0.005,"14":0.005,"16":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.17,"1":0.27,"2":0.29,"3":0.165,"4":0.055,"5":0.04,"6":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.545,"1":0.305,"2":0.115,"3":0.025,"4":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.46,"1":0.315,"2":0.16,"3":0.06,"4":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1644796800000,"validUntil":1644883200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":3,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4880,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2022","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.019450000000000023,"mean":0.17,"median":0,"bias":0.17,"maeMean":0.17,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.865,"empiricalMass":0.865,"logScore":0.14502577205025774},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.012400000000000022,"mean":0.14,"median":0,"bias":0.14,"maeMean":0.14,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.89,"empiricalMass":0.89,"logScore":0.11653381625595151},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.021974999999999995,"mean":0.215,"median":0,"bias":0.215,"maeMean":0.215,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.86,"empiricalMass":0.86,"logScore":0.15082288973458366},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.046875,"mean":0.245,"median":0,"bias":0.245,"maeMean":0.245,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.785,"empiricalMass":0.785,"logScore":0.24207156119972859},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.000899999999999998,"mean":0.03,"median":0,"bias":0.03,"maeMean":0.03,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.97,"empiricalMass":0.97,"logScore":0.030459207484708574},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.006400000000000003,"mean":0.08,"median":0,"bias":0.08,"maeMean":0.08,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.92,"empiricalMass":0.92,"logScore":0.08338160893905101}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.865,"1":0.1,"2":0.035},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.89,"1":0.095,"2":0.01,"5":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.86,"1":0.095,"2":0.03,"3":0.005,"4":0.005,"5":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.785,"1":0.19,"2":0.02,"3":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.97,"1":0.03},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.92,"1":0.08}}},{"issuedAt":1644796800000,"validUntil":1644883200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4880,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2022","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.00002499999999999985,"mean":0.005,"median":0,"bias":0.005,"maeMean":0.005,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.995,"empiricalMass":0.995,"logScore":0.005012541823544286},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.00027500000000000094,"mean":0.025,"median":0,"bias":0.025,"maeMean":0.025,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.985,"empiricalMass":0.985,"logScore":0.015113637810048184},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.0002249999999999995,"mean":0.015,"median":0,"bias":0.015,"maeMean":0.015,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.985,"empiricalMass":0.985,"logScore":0.015113637810048184},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.0002249999999999995,"mean":0.015,"median":0,"bias":0.015,"maeMean":0.015,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.985,"empiricalMass":0.985,"logScore":0.015113637810048184},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.0002249999999999995,"mean":0.015,"median":0,"bias":0.015,"maeMean":0.015,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.985,"empiricalMass":0.985,"logScore":0.015113637810048184},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0,"mean":0,"median":0,"bias":0,"maeMean":0,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":1,"empiricalMass":1,"logScore":0}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.995,"1":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.985,"1":0.01,"3":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.985,"1":0.015},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.985,"1":0.015},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.985,"1":0.015},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":1}}},{"issuedAt":1644796800000,"validUntil":1645401600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":2,"actual":6,"trainingCount":4880,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2022","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":1.6663999999999999,"mean":10.28,"median":8,"bias":4.279999999999999,"maeMean":4.279999999999999,"maeMedian":2,"low":2,"high":23,"coverage":true,"width":21,"pitLower":0.265,"pitUpper":0.355,"empiricalMass":0.09,"logScore":2.4079456086518722},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.7588999999999997,"mean":6.35,"median":6,"bias":0.34999999999999964,"maeMean":0.34999999999999964,"maeMedian":0,"low":2,"high":13,"coverage":true,"width":11,"pitLower":0.49,"pitUpper":0.645,"empiricalMass":0.155,"logScore":1.8643301620628905},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":1.8351250000000001,"mean":10.475,"median":8,"bias":4.475,"maeMean":4.475,"maeMedian":2,"low":2,"high":25,"coverage":true,"width":23,"pitLower":0.29,"pitUpper":0.35,"empiricalMass":0.06,"logScore":2.8134107167600364},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":3.558775,"mean":11.305,"median":11,"bias":5.305,"maeMean":5.305,"maeMedian":5,"low":7,"high":17,"coverage":false,"width":10,"pitLower":0.02,"pitUpper":0.04,"empiricalMass":0.02,"logScore":3.912023005428146},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.8259999999999998,"mean":4.77,"median":5,"bias":-1.2300000000000004,"maeMean":1.2300000000000004,"maeMedian":1,"low":2,"high":8,"coverage":true,"width":6,"pitLower":0.675,"pitUpper":0.805,"empiricalMass":0.13,"logScore":2.0402208285265546},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.9900500000000003,"mean":5.1,"median":4.5,"bias":-0.9000000000000004,"maeMean":0.9000000000000004,"maeMedian":1.5,"low":1,"high":11,"coverage":true,"width":10,"pitLower":0.645,"pitUpper":0.725,"empiricalMass":0.08,"logScore":2.5257286443082556}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"1":0.03,"2":0.03,"3":0.07,"4":0.04,"5":0.095,"6":0.09,"7":0.095,"8":0.075,"9":0.045,"10":0.085,"11":0.065,"12":0.04,"13":0.04,"14":0.035,"15":0.01,"16":0.03,"17":0.015,"18":0.01,"19":0.015,"20":0.015,"22":0.015,"23":0.015,"24":0.01,"27":0.005,"32":0.01,"47":0.005,"51":0.005,"114":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.025,"1":0.02,"2":0.085,"3":0.125,"4":0.14,"5":0.095,"6":0.155,"7":0.095,"8":0.08,"9":0.04,"10":0.03,"11":0.02,"12":0.03,"13":0.02,"14":0.005,"15":0.005,"16":0.005,"18":0.005,"20":0.005,"23":0.005,"44":0.005,"53":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.005,"1":0.015,"2":0.045,"3":0.025,"4":0.12,"5":0.08,"6":0.06,"7":0.085,"8":0.085,"9":0.06,"10":0.06,"11":0.025,"12":0.07,"13":0.025,"14":0.04,"15":0.025,"16":0.025,"17":0.025,"18":0.02,"21":0.025,"22":0.005,"23":0.005,"24":0.01,"25":0.015,"26":0.01,"31":0.005,"35":0.01,"37":0.01,"38":0.005,"78":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"2":0.005,"4":0.005,"5":0.01,"6":0.02,"7":0.055,"8":0.105,"9":0.12,"10":0.125,"11":0.12,"12":0.085,"13":0.13,"14":0.06,"15":0.045,"16":0.045,"17":0.02,"18":0.025,"19":0.015,"21":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.005,"1":0.02,"2":0.115,"3":0.13,"4":0.205,"5":0.2,"6":0.13,"7":0.085,"8":0.075,"9":0.02,"10":0.01,"11":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.015,"1":0.105,"2":0.09,"3":0.12,"4":0.17,"5":0.145,"6":0.08,"7":0.06,"8":0.08,"9":0.045,"10":0.025,"11":0.015,"12":0.025,"13":0.005,"14":0.005,"15":0.005,"17":0.005,"19":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1644796800000,"validUntil":1645401600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":3,"actual":1,"trainingCount":4880,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2022","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.2711500000000001,"mean":1.29,"median":1,"bias":0.29000000000000004,"maeMean":0.29000000000000004,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.39,"pitUpper":0.705,"empiricalMass":0.315,"logScore":1.155182640156504},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.33767499999999995,"mean":0.765,"median":0,"bias":-0.235,"maeMean":0.235,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.55,"pitUpper":0.825,"empiricalMass":0.275,"logScore":1.2909841813155656},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.2836749999999999,"mean":1.275,"median":1,"bias":0.2749999999999999,"maeMean":0.2749999999999999,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.395,"pitUpper":0.71,"empiricalMass":0.315,"logScore":1.155182640156504},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.30394999999999994,"mean":1.59,"median":1,"bias":0.5900000000000001,"maeMean":0.5900000000000001,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.2,"pitUpper":0.545,"empiricalMass":0.345,"logScore":1.0642108619507773},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.34814999999999996,"mean":0.58,"median":0,"bias":-0.42000000000000004,"maeMean":0.42000000000000004,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.575,"pitUpper":0.87,"empiricalMass":0.295,"logScore":1.2207799226423173},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.405875,"mean":0.505,"median":0,"bias":-0.495,"maeMean":0.495,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.63,"pitUpper":0.91,"empiricalMass":0.28,"logScore":1.2729656758128873}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.39,"1":0.315,"2":0.14,"3":0.075,"4":0.055,"5":0.005,"6":0.01,"7":0.005,"26":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.55,"1":0.275,"2":0.125,"3":0.01,"4":0.03,"8":0.005,"10":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.395,"1":0.315,"2":0.11,"3":0.09,"4":0.045,"5":0.02,"6":0.01,"7":0.005,"8":0.005,"11":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.2,"1":0.345,"2":0.235,"3":0.13,"4":0.07,"5":0.015,"6":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.575,"1":0.295,"2":0.105,"3":0.025},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.63,"1":0.28,"2":0.065,"3":0.01,"4":0.01,"5":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1644796800000,"validUntil":1645401600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":4,"actual":1,"trainingCount":4880,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2022","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.856125,"mean":0.125,"median":0,"bias":-0.875,"maeMean":0.875,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0.925,"pitUpper":0.985,"empiricalMass":0.06,"logScore":2.8134107167600364},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.883725,"mean":0.075,"median":0,"bias":-0.925,"maeMean":0.925,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0.94,"pitUpper":0.99,"empiricalMass":0.05,"logScore":2.995732273553991},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.7313000000000001,"mean":0.17,"median":0,"bias":-0.83,"maeMean":0.83,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0.855,"pitUpper":0.985,"empiricalMass":0.13,"logScore":2.0402208285265546},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.6484249999999999,"mean":0.215,"median":0,"bias":-0.785,"maeMean":0.785,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0.805,"pitUpper":0.98,"empiricalMass":0.175,"logScore":1.742969305058623},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.9801,"mean":0.01,"median":0,"bias":-0.99,"maeMean":0.99,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":false,"width":0,"pitLower":0.99,"pitUpper":1,"empiricalMass":0.01,"logScore":4.605170185988091},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.9216,"mean":0.04,"median":0,"bias":-0.96,"maeMean":0.96,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":false,"width":0,"pitLower":0.96,"pitUpper":1,"empiricalMass":0.04,"logScore":3.2188758248682006}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.925,"1":0.06,"2":0.005,"4":0.005,"7":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.94,"1":0.05,"2":0.005,"3":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.855,"1":0.13,"2":0.01,"4":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.805,"1":0.175,"2":0.02},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.99,"1":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.96,"1":0.04}}},{"issuedAt":1644796800000,"validUntil":1647388800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":2,"actual":22,"trainingCount":4880,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2022","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":18.249675,"mean":52.635,"median":47,"bias":30.634999999999998,"maeMean":30.634999999999998,"maeMedian":25,"low":23,"high":96,"coverage":false,"width":73,"pitLower":0.045,"pitUpper":0.045,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"rollingETAS":{"crps":3.6735000000000007,"mean":29.73,"median":27.5,"bias":7.73,"maeMean":7.73,"maeMedian":5.5,"low":14,"high":52,"coverage":true,"width":38,"pitLower":0.28,"pitUpper":0.29,"empiricalMass":0.01,"logScore":4.605170185988091},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":18.950749999999996,"mean":54.78,"median":47,"bias":32.78,"maeMean":32.78,"maeMedian":25,"low":25,"high":109,"coverage":false,"width":84,"pitLower":0.015,"pitUpper":0.025,"empiricalMass":0.01,"logScore":4.605170185988091},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":21.97245,"mean":47.99,"median":48,"bias":25.990000000000002,"maeMean":25.990000000000002,"maeMedian":26,"low":37,"high":59,"coverage":false,"width":22,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentPoisson":{"crps":1.6330749999999998,"mean":19.705,"median":19,"bias":-2.2950000000000017,"maeMean":2.2950000000000017,"maeMedian":3,"low":13,"high":28,"coverage":true,"width":15,"pitLower":0.67,"pitUpper":0.75,"empiricalMass":0.08,"logScore":2.5257286443082556},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":2.033375,"mean":19.335,"median":19,"bias":-2.664999999999999,"maeMean":2.664999999999999,"maeMedian":3,"low":11,"high":31,"coverage":true,"width":20,"pitLower":0.68,"pitUpper":0.76,"empiricalMass":0.08,"logScore":2.5257286443082556}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"14":0.005,"15":0.005,"17":0.005,"18":0.005,"20":0.01,"21":0.015,"23":0.01,"25":0.005,"26":0.01,"27":0.03,"28":0.01,"29":0.015,"30":0.015,"31":0.02,"32":0.02,"33":0.01,"34":0.04,"35":0.03,"36":0.015,"37":0.03,"38":0.03,"40":0.01,"41":0.025,"42":0.015,"43":0.02,"44":0.03,"45":0.03,"46":0.015,"47":0.025,"48":0.02,"49":0.035,"50":0.025,"51":0.005,"52":0.015,"53":0.02,"54":0.005,"55":0.02,"57":0.01,"58":0.01,"59":0.01,"61":0.005,"62":0.015,"63":0.015,"64":0.01,"65":0.01,"66":0.01,"67":0.015,"68":0.01,"69":0.005,"70":0.025,"71":0.015,"72":0.005,"73":0.005,"74":0.01,"75":0.01,"77":0.005,"78":0.005,"79":0.01,"80":0.015,"81":0.005,"82":0.01,"83":0.005,"84":0.005,"88":0.01,"91":0.005,"93":0.005,"95":0.015,"96":0.01,"100":0.005,"101":0.01,"107":0.005,"109":0.005,"113":0.005,"114":0.005,"121":0.005,"131":0.01},"rollingETAS":{"10":0.015,"12":0.01,"13":0.005,"14":0.025,"15":0.015,"16":0.015,"17":0.035,"18":0.03,"19":0.03,"20":0.04,"21":0.06,"22":0.01,"23":0.07,"24":0.035,"25":0.02,"26":0.05,"27":0.035,"28":0.015,"29":0.03,"30":0.035,"31":0.055,"32":0.035,"33":0.05,"34":0.03,"35":0.01,"36":0.045,"37":0.025,"38":0.02,"39":0.015,"40":0.005,"42":0.01,"43":0.005,"44":0.015,"45":0.005,"46":0.005,"47":0.01,"48":0.005,"49":0.01,"50":0.005,"52":0.01,"53":0.005,"55":0.005,"56":0.005,"65":0.005,"66":0.005,"67":0.005,"68":0.005,"71":0.005,"80":0.005,"100":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"16":0.005,"18":0.005,"19":0.005,"22":0.01,"24":0.005,"25":0.02,"26":0.025,"27":0.01,"29":0.025,"30":0.015,"31":0.015,"32":0.02,"33":0.01,"34":0.02,"35":0.02,"36":0.02,"37":0.02,"38":0.055,"39":0.01,"40":0.02,"41":0.015,"42":0.045,"43":0.01,"44":0.015,"45":0.03,"46":0.025,"47":0.03,"48":0.025,"49":0.015,"50":0.025,"51":0.01,"52":0.02,"53":0.035,"54":0.015,"55":0.015,"56":0.015,"57":0.005,"58":0.005,"59":0.025,"60":0.005,"61":0.01,"62":0.015,"63":0.005,"64":0.005,"65":0.01,"66":0.01,"67":0.01,"68":0.005,"70":0.005,"71":0.005,"72":0.005,"73":0.01,"74":0.005,"75":0.015,"77":0.01,"78":0.015,"83":0.015,"84":0.005,"85":0.005,"87":0.01,"88":0.005,"92":0.005,"93":0.015,"95":0.005,"97":0.01,"100":0.01,"109":0.005,"110":0.005,"112":0.005,"117":0.005,"118":0.005,"119":0.005,"124":0.005,"142":0.005,"144":0.005,"165":0.005,"276":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"29":0.005,"32":0.01,"33":0.005,"34":0.005,"35":0.01,"36":0.01,"37":0.025,"38":0.02,"39":0.03,"40":0.045,"41":0.025,"42":0.04,"43":0.06,"44":0.045,"45":0.015,"46":0.045,"47":0.05,"48":0.085,"49":0.04,"50":0.055,"51":0.085,"52":0.045,"53":0.04,"54":0.02,"55":0.045,"56":0.02,"57":0.02,"58":0.03,"59":0.02,"60":0.015,"61":0.005,"62":0.01,"63":0.005,"64":0.005,"68":0.005,"69":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"9":0.005,"10":0.005,"11":0.01,"12":0.005,"13":0.04,"14":0.035,"15":0.07,"16":0.08,"17":0.095,"18":0.105,"19":0.06,"20":0.085,"21":0.075,"22":0.08,"23":0.065,"24":0.04,"25":0.035,"26":0.025,"27":0.03,"28":0.03,"30":0.01,"31":0.005,"32":0.005,"35":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"7":0.01,"9":0.01,"10":0.02,"11":0.045,"12":0.045,"13":0.03,"14":0.03,"15":0.06,"16":0.08,"17":0.07,"18":0.09,"19":0.075,"20":0.055,"21":0.06,"22":0.08,"23":0.015,"24":0.03,"25":0.055,"26":0.025,"27":0.01,"28":0.025,"29":0.005,"30":0.015,"31":0.025,"32":0.01,"33":0.01,"34":0.01,"35":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1644796800000,"validUntil":1647388800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":3,"actual":2,"trainingCount":4880,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2022","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":2.27185,"mean":6.34,"median":6,"bias":4.34,"maeMean":4.34,"maeMedian":4,"low":1,"high":14,"coverage":true,"width":13,"pitLower":0.09,"pitUpper":0.185,"empiricalMass":0.095,"logScore":2.353878387381596},"rollingETAS":{"crps":1.038875,"mean":4.045,"median":3,"bias":2.045,"maeMean":2.045,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":9,"coverage":true,"width":9,"pitLower":0.195,"pitUpper":0.315,"empiricalMass":0.12,"logScore":2.120263536200091},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":2.3982250000000005,"mean":6.865,"median":5,"bias":4.865,"maeMean":4.865,"maeMedian":3,"low":2,"high":16,"coverage":true,"width":14,"pitLower":0.035,"pitUpper":0.135,"empiricalMass":0.1,"logScore":2.3025850929940455},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":3.2181249999999997,"mean":6.705,"median":7,"bias":4.705,"maeMean":4.705,"maeMedian":5,"low":2,"high":11,"coverage":true,"width":9,"pitLower":0.005,"pitUpper":0.055,"empiricalMass":0.05,"logScore":2.995732273553991},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.331175,"mean":2.205,"median":2,"bias":0.20500000000000007,"maeMean":0.20500000000000007,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.36,"pitUpper":0.61,"empiricalMass":0.25,"logScore":1.3862943611198906},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.38005,"mean":2.31,"median":2,"bias":0.31000000000000005,"maeMean":0.31000000000000005,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":6,"coverage":true,"width":6,"pitLower":0.36,"pitUpper":0.59,"empiricalMass":0.23,"logScore":1.4696759700589417}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.025,"1":0.065,"2":0.095,"3":0.105,"4":0.095,"5":0.09,"6":0.125,"7":0.055,"8":0.1,"9":0.03,"10":0.06,"11":0.04,"12":0.015,"13":0.035,"14":0.02,"15":0.01,"16":0.01,"17":0.015,"19":0.005,"24":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.095,"1":0.1,"2":0.12,"3":0.19,"4":0.11,"5":0.105,"6":0.1,"7":0.07,"8":0.05,"9":0.02,"10":0.02,"11":0.005,"13":0.005,"16":0.005,"20":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.005,"1":0.03,"2":0.1,"3":0.12,"4":0.12,"5":0.145,"6":0.09,"7":0.055,"8":0.07,"9":0.05,"10":0.04,"11":0.03,"12":0.035,"13":0.01,"14":0.02,"15":0.015,"16":0.015,"17":0.005,"18":0.015,"19":0.005,"20":0.005,"21":0.005,"23":0.005,"25":0.005,"43":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"1":0.005,"2":0.05,"3":0.065,"4":0.09,"5":0.14,"6":0.14,"7":0.12,"8":0.14,"9":0.1,"10":0.08,"11":0.03,"12":0.025,"13":0.005,"14":0.005,"16":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.11,"1":0.25,"2":0.25,"3":0.21,"4":0.115,"5":0.04,"6":0.015,"7":0.005,"8":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.135,"1":0.225,"2":0.23,"3":0.19,"4":0.11,"5":0.05,"6":0.055,"7":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1644796800000,"validUntil":1647388800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":4,"actual":1,"trainingCount":4880,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2022","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.37434999999999996,"mean":0.72,"median":0,"bias":-0.28,"maeMean":0.28,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.58,"pitUpper":0.82,"empiricalMass":0.24,"logScore":1.4271163556401458},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.35450000000000004,"mean":0.61,"median":0,"bias":-0.39,"maeMean":0.39,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.58,"pitUpper":0.88,"empiricalMass":0.3,"logScore":1.2039728043259361},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.34667499999999996,"mean":0.785,"median":0,"bias":-0.21499999999999997,"maeMean":0.21499999999999997,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.55,"pitUpper":0.81,"empiricalMass":0.26,"logScore":1.3470736479666092},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.25692499999999996,"mean":0.775,"median":1,"bias":-0.22499999999999998,"maeMean":0.22499999999999998,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.47,"pitUpper":0.82,"empiricalMass":0.35,"logScore":1.0498221244986778},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.6484249999999999,"mean":0.215,"median":0,"bias":-0.785,"maeMean":0.785,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0.805,"pitUpper":0.98,"empiricalMass":0.175,"logScore":1.742969305058623},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.6723999999999999,"mean":0.18,"median":0,"bias":-0.8200000000000001,"maeMean":0.8200000000000001,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0.82,"pitUpper":1,"empiricalMass":0.18,"logScore":1.7147984280919266}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.58,"1":0.24,"2":0.115,"3":0.035,"4":0.01,"5":0.015,"6":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.58,"1":0.3,"2":0.06,"3":0.05,"4":0.01},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.55,"1":0.26,"2":0.11,"3":0.045,"4":0.015,"5":0.015,"7":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.47,"1":0.35,"2":0.12,"3":0.055,"4":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.805,"1":0.175,"2":0.02},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.82,"1":0.18}}},{"issuedAt":1647388800000,"validUntil":1647475200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":2,"actual":1,"trainingCount":4902,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2022","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.29115,"mean":1.46,"median":1,"bias":0.45999999999999996,"maeMean":0.45999999999999996,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":6,"coverage":true,"width":6,"pitLower":0.415,"pitUpper":0.74,"empiricalMass":0.325,"logScore":1.1239300966523995},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.2689750000000001,"mean":0.865,"median":1,"bias":-0.135,"maeMean":0.135,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.47,"pitUpper":0.795,"empiricalMass":0.325,"logScore":1.1239300966523995},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.3190749999999999,"mean":1.105,"median":1,"bias":0.10499999999999998,"maeMean":0.10499999999999998,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.475,"pitUpper":0.755,"empiricalMass":0.28,"logScore":1.2729656758128873},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.3230249999999999,"mean":1.605,"median":1,"bias":0.605,"maeMean":0.605,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.205,"pitUpper":0.535,"empiricalMass":0.33,"logScore":1.1086626245216111},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.269475,"mean":0.675,"median":0.5,"bias":-0.32499999999999996,"maeMean":0.32499999999999996,"maeMedian":0.5,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.5,"pitUpper":0.865,"empiricalMass":0.365,"logScore":1.0078579253996456},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.26754999999999995,"mean":0.7,"median":0.5,"bias":-0.30000000000000004,"maeMean":0.30000000000000004,"maeMedian":0.5,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.5,"pitUpper":0.88,"empiricalMass":0.38,"logScore":0.9675840262617056}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.415,"1":0.325,"2":0.095,"3":0.05,"4":0.055,"5":0.005,"6":0.015,"7":0.01,"8":0.005,"9":0.01,"12":0.005,"13":0.005,"27":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.47,"1":0.325,"2":0.135,"3":0.045,"4":0.005,"5":0.01,"6":0.005,"7":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.475,"1":0.28,"2":0.1,"3":0.05,"4":0.045,"5":0.025,"6":0.01,"7":0.01,"8":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.205,"1":0.33,"2":0.22,"3":0.18,"4":0.045,"5":0.01,"6":0.005,"7":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.5,"1":0.365,"2":0.1,"3":0.03,"4":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.5,"1":0.38,"2":0.07,"3":0.025,"4":0.02,"5":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1647388800000,"validUntil":1647475200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":3,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4902,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2022","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.029100000000000015,"mean":0.23,"median":0,"bias":0.23,"maeMean":0.23,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.835,"empiricalMass":0.835,"logScore":0.18032355413128162},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.004250000000000004,"mean":0.07,"median":0,"bias":0.07,"maeMean":0.07,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.935,"empiricalMass":0.935,"logScore":0.06720874969344999},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.019450000000000023,"mean":0.17,"median":0,"bias":0.17,"maeMean":0.17,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.865,"empiricalMass":0.865,"logScore":0.14502577205025774},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.02980000000000002,"mean":0.2,"median":0,"bias":0.2,"maeMean":0.2,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.83,"empiricalMass":0.83,"logScore":0.18632957819149348},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.007225000000000009,"mean":0.085,"median":0,"bias":0.085,"maeMean":0.085,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.915,"empiricalMass":0.915,"logScore":0.0888312137066157},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.013225,"mean":0.115,"median":0,"bias":0.115,"maeMean":0.115,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.885,"empiricalMass":0.885,"logScore":0.12216763397420753}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.835,"1":0.125,"2":0.025,"3":0.01,"5":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.935,"1":0.06,"2":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.865,"1":0.1,"2":0.035},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.83,"1":0.14,"2":0.03},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.915,"1":0.085},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.885,"1":0.115}}},{"issuedAt":1647388800000,"validUntil":1647475200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4902,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2022","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.002050000000000003,"mean":0.05,"median":0,"bias":0.05,"maeMean":0.05,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.955,"empiricalMass":0.955,"logScore":0.046043938501406846},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.00002499999999999985,"mean":0.005,"median":0,"bias":0.005,"maeMean":0.005,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.995,"empiricalMass":0.995,"logScore":0.005012541823544286},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.000899999999999998,"mean":0.03,"median":0,"bias":0.03,"maeMean":0.03,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.97,"empiricalMass":0.97,"logScore":0.030459207484708574},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.0006250000000000006,"mean":0.025,"median":0,"bias":0.025,"maeMean":0.025,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.975,"empiricalMass":0.975,"logScore":0.025317807984289897},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.0006250000000000006,"mean":0.025,"median":0,"bias":0.025,"maeMean":0.025,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.975,"empiricalMass":0.975,"logScore":0.025317807984289897},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.00002499999999999985,"mean":0.005,"median":0,"bias":0.005,"maeMean":0.005,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.995,"empiricalMass":0.995,"logScore":0.005012541823544286}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.955,"1":0.04,"2":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.995,"1":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.97,"1":0.03},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.975,"1":0.025},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.975,"1":0.025},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.995,"1":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1647388800000,"validUntil":1647993600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":2,"actual":6,"trainingCount":4902,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2022","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":1.460975,"mean":9.365,"median":8,"bias":3.365,"maeMean":3.365,"maeMedian":2,"low":3,"high":21,"coverage":true,"width":18,"pitLower":0.3,"pitUpper":0.4,"empiricalMass":0.1,"logScore":2.3025850929940455},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.7935249999999998,"mean":6.645,"median":6,"bias":0.6449999999999996,"maeMean":0.6449999999999996,"maeMedian":0,"low":1,"high":14,"coverage":true,"width":13,"pitLower":0.47,"pitUpper":0.595,"empiricalMass":0.125,"logScore":2.0794415416798357},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":1.7473,"mean":10.25,"median":8.5,"bias":4.25,"maeMean":4.25,"maeMedian":2.5,"low":3,"high":21,"coverage":true,"width":18,"pitLower":0.22,"pitUpper":0.31,"empiricalMass":0.09,"logScore":2.4079456086518722},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":3.5218500000000006,"mean":11.32,"median":11,"bias":5.32,"maeMean":5.32,"maeMedian":5,"low":6,"high":17,"coverage":true,"width":11,"pitLower":0.025,"pitUpper":0.08,"empiricalMass":0.055,"logScore":2.900422093749666},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.9734249999999998,"mean":4.495,"median":4,"bias":-1.505,"maeMean":1.505,"maeMedian":2,"low":1,"high":8,"coverage":true,"width":7,"pitLower":0.705,"pitUpper":0.81,"empiricalMass":0.105,"logScore":2.2537949288246137},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":1.0788499999999999,"mean":4.53,"median":4,"bias":-1.4699999999999998,"maeMean":1.4699999999999998,"maeMedian":2,"low":1,"high":9,"coverage":true,"width":8,"pitLower":0.66,"pitUpper":0.77,"empiricalMass":0.11,"logScore":2.2072749131897207}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.005,"1":0.005,"2":0.035,"3":0.07,"4":0.085,"5":0.1,"6":0.1,"7":0.065,"8":0.1,"9":0.07,"10":0.045,"11":0.04,"12":0.06,"13":0.04,"14":0.03,"15":0.02,"16":0.02,"17":0.015,"18":0.02,"19":0.02,"21":0.01,"24":0.005,"25":0.005,"26":0.01,"31":0.005,"32":0.005,"34":0.01,"44":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.02,"1":0.03,"2":0.07,"3":0.115,"4":0.115,"5":0.12,"6":0.125,"7":0.125,"8":0.055,"9":0.035,"10":0.055,"11":0.03,"12":0.02,"13":0.025,"14":0.02,"15":0.005,"16":0.005,"19":0.005,"20":0.005,"22":0.005,"25":0.005,"27":0.005,"49":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"1":0.005,"2":0.03,"3":0.04,"4":0.085,"5":0.06,"6":0.09,"7":0.1,"8":0.09,"9":0.07,"10":0.075,"11":0.08,"12":0.03,"13":0.035,"14":0.045,"15":0.03,"16":0.015,"17":0.02,"18":0.02,"19":0.005,"20":0.015,"21":0.01,"22":0.01,"24":0.005,"28":0.005,"30":0.005,"31":0.005,"33":0.005,"34":0.005,"44":0.005,"85":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"3":0.005,"4":0.005,"5":0.015,"6":0.055,"7":0.055,"8":0.055,"9":0.12,"10":0.1,"11":0.13,"12":0.105,"13":0.11,"14":0.07,"15":0.06,"16":0.06,"17":0.025,"18":0.01,"19":0.005,"20":0.005,"21":0.005,"22":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.01,"1":0.06,"2":0.105,"3":0.165,"4":0.19,"5":0.175,"6":0.105,"7":0.105,"8":0.06,"9":0.01,"10":0.005,"11":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.045,"1":0.09,"2":0.14,"3":0.14,"4":0.125,"5":0.12,"6":0.11,"7":0.08,"8":0.08,"9":0.03,"10":0.015,"11":0.005,"12":0.005,"13":0.005,"16":0.005,"20":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1647388800000,"validUntil":1647993600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":3,"actual":2,"trainingCount":4902,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2022","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.764275,"mean":1.055,"median":1,"bias":-0.9450000000000001,"maeMean":0.9450000000000001,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.75,"pitUpper":0.87,"empiricalMass":0.12,"logScore":2.120263536200091},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.9481499999999999,"mean":0.81,"median":0,"bias":-1.19,"maeMean":1.19,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.82,"pitUpper":0.935,"empiricalMass":0.115,"logScore":2.162823150618887},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.7468250000000001,"mean":1.075,"median":1,"bias":-0.925,"maeMean":0.925,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.73,"pitUpper":0.865,"empiricalMass":0.135,"logScore":2.0024805005437076},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.37450000000000006,"mean":1.6,"median":1,"bias":-0.3999999999999999,"maeMean":0.3999999999999999,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.52,"pitUpper":0.76,"empiricalMass":0.24,"logScore":1.4271163556401458},"recentPoisson":{"crps":1.21075,"mean":0.5,"median":0,"bias":-1.5,"maeMean":1.5,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.935,"pitUpper":0.99,"empiricalMass":0.055,"logScore":2.900422093749666},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":1.1237,"mean":0.55,"median":0,"bias":-1.45,"maeMean":1.45,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.9,"pitUpper":0.99,"empiricalMass":0.09,"logScore":2.4079456086518722}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.425,"1":0.325,"2":0.12,"3":0.07,"4":0.04,"5":0.005,"6":0.01,"7":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.52,"1":0.3,"2":0.115,"3":0.04,"4":0.01,"5":0.005,"6":0.005,"13":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.44,"1":0.29,"2":0.135,"3":0.095,"4":0.025,"5":0.01,"16":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.205,"1":0.315,"2":0.24,"3":0.175,"4":0.05,"5":0.01,"6":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.58,"1":0.355,"2":0.055,"3":0.005,"4":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.56,"1":0.34,"2":0.09,"3":0.01}}},{"issuedAt":1647388800000,"validUntil":1647993600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":4,"actual":1,"trainingCount":4902,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2022","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.8283250000000001,"mean":0.105,"median":0,"bias":-0.895,"maeMean":0.895,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0.91,"pitUpper":0.985,"empiricalMass":0.075,"logScore":2.5902671654458267},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.810625,"mean":0.125,"median":0,"bias":-0.875,"maeMean":0.875,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0.9,"pitUpper":0.975,"empiricalMass":0.075,"logScore":2.5902671654458267},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.81025,"mean":0.12,"median":0,"bias":-0.88,"maeMean":0.88,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0.9,"pitUpper":0.985,"empiricalMass":0.085,"logScore":2.4651040224918206},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.570675,"mean":0.275,"median":0,"bias":-0.725,"maeMean":0.725,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0.755,"pitUpper":0.975,"empiricalMass":0.22,"logScore":1.5141277326297755},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.865,"mean":0.08,"median":0,"bias":-0.92,"maeMean":0.92,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0.93,"pitUpper":0.99,"empiricalMass":0.06,"logScore":2.8134107167600364},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.893025,"mean":0.055,"median":0,"bias":-0.945,"maeMean":0.945,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0.945,"pitUpper":1,"empiricalMass":0.055,"logScore":2.900422093749666}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.91,"1":0.075,"2":0.015},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.9,"1":0.075,"2":0.025},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.9,"1":0.085,"2":0.01,"3":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.755,"1":0.22,"2":0.02,"3":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.93,"1":0.06,"2":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.945,"1":0.055}}},{"issuedAt":1647388800000,"validUntil":1649980800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":2,"actual":28,"trainingCount":4902,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2022","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":9.949549999999999,"mean":47.76,"median":44,"bias":19.759999999999998,"maeMean":19.759999999999998,"maeMedian":16,"low":20,"high":88,"coverage":true,"width":68,"pitLower":0.125,"pitUpper":0.145,"empiricalMass":0.02,"logScore":3.912023005428146},"rollingETAS":{"crps":2.369749999999999,"mean":29.35,"median":26,"bias":1.3500000000000014,"maeMean":1.3500000000000014,"maeMedian":2,"low":15,"high":57,"coverage":true,"width":42,"pitLower":0.56,"pitUpper":0.595,"empiricalMass":0.035,"logScore":3.3524072174927233},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":12.628325000000002,"mean":55.195,"median":48,"bias":27.195,"maeMean":27.195,"maeMedian":20,"low":23,"high":111,"coverage":true,"width":88,"pitLower":0.105,"pitUpper":0.125,"empiricalMass":0.02,"logScore":3.912023005428146},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":16.711624999999998,"mean":48.525,"median":48.5,"bias":20.525,"maeMean":20.525,"maeMedian":20.5,"low":37,"high":59,"coverage":false,"width":22,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentPoisson":{"crps":5.464975000000001,"mean":20.135,"median":19.5,"bias":-7.864999999999998,"maeMean":7.864999999999998,"maeMedian":8.5,"low":13,"high":28,"coverage":true,"width":15,"pitLower":0.935,"pitUpper":0.95,"empiricalMass":0.015,"logScore":4.199705077879927},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":5.169225,"mean":20.185,"median":19,"bias":-7.815000000000001,"maeMean":7.815000000000001,"maeMedian":9,"low":11,"high":31,"coverage":true,"width":20,"pitLower":0.885,"pitUpper":0.9,"empiricalMass":0.015,"logScore":4.199705077879927}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"12":0.005,"13":0.005,"14":0.005,"17":0.005,"18":0.01,"19":0.01,"20":0.015,"22":0.005,"23":0.015,"24":0.005,"25":0.025,"26":0.01,"27":0.01,"28":0.02,"29":0.015,"30":0.025,"31":0.015,"32":0.03,"33":0.035,"34":0.04,"35":0.025,"36":0.025,"37":0.005,"38":0.02,"39":0.02,"40":0.02,"41":0.015,"42":0.005,"43":0.04,"44":0.025,"45":0.045,"46":0.03,"47":0.02,"48":0.02,"49":0.025,"50":0.015,"51":0.02,"52":0.035,"53":0.005,"54":0.02,"55":0.005,"56":0.015,"57":0.01,"58":0.005,"59":0.015,"60":0.005,"61":0.02,"64":0.005,"65":0.015,"66":0.015,"69":0.01,"70":0.015,"73":0.005,"75":0.005,"76":0.005,"77":0.005,"78":0.01,"79":0.005,"80":0.005,"84":0.005,"85":0.01,"86":0.015,"88":0.005,"89":0.005,"92":0.005,"94":0.005,"98":0.005,"110":0.005,"112":0.005,"113":0.005,"122":0.005,"128":0.005,"142":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"10":0.005,"11":0.005,"12":0.01,"14":0.025,"15":0.025,"16":0.01,"17":0.03,"18":0.035,"19":0.04,"20":0.025,"21":0.05,"22":0.065,"23":0.05,"24":0.06,"25":0.04,"26":0.04,"27":0.045,"28":0.035,"29":0.05,"30":0.045,"31":0.045,"32":0.015,"33":0.01,"34":0.015,"35":0.015,"36":0.02,"37":0.02,"38":0.005,"39":0.02,"40":0.01,"41":0.01,"42":0.01,"43":0.01,"44":0.005,"45":0.005,"46":0.005,"47":0.01,"48":0.005,"49":0.005,"55":0.01,"56":0.005,"57":0.01,"59":0.005,"60":0.005,"62":0.005,"65":0.005,"69":0.005,"73":0.005,"86":0.005,"91":0.005,"110":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"13":0.005,"17":0.005,"18":0.015,"19":0.005,"21":0.005,"22":0.01,"23":0.02,"24":0.005,"25":0.005,"26":0.01,"27":0.02,"28":0.02,"29":0.03,"30":0.035,"31":0.03,"32":0.025,"33":0.02,"34":0.015,"35":0.02,"36":0.005,"37":0.01,"38":0.025,"39":0.005,"40":0.015,"41":0.02,"42":0.015,"43":0.02,"44":0.01,"45":0.02,"46":0.02,"47":0.025,"48":0.02,"49":0.03,"50":0.02,"51":0.005,"52":0.02,"53":0.01,"54":0.025,"55":0.015,"56":0.005,"57":0.02,"58":0.015,"59":0.01,"60":0.03,"61":0.02,"62":0.01,"64":0.01,"65":0.01,"67":0.005,"68":0.005,"69":0.005,"70":0.01,"71":0.005,"73":0.005,"74":0.01,"75":0.005,"77":0.005,"78":0.01,"79":0.005,"80":0.01,"81":0.005,"82":0.01,"83":0.005,"85":0.005,"86":0.02,"87":0.005,"91":0.005,"92":0.005,"93":0.01,"96":0.005,"102":0.005,"103":0.005,"105":0.005,"107":0.005,"109":0.005,"111":0.005,"115":0.005,"125":0.005,"132":0.005,"135":0.005,"137":0.005,"153":0.005,"156":0.005,"187":0.005,"199":0.005,"230":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"33":0.005,"34":0.005,"35":0.01,"36":0.015,"37":0.02,"38":0.015,"39":0.02,"40":0.02,"41":0.035,"42":0.04,"43":0.05,"44":0.045,"45":0.08,"46":0.04,"47":0.045,"48":0.055,"49":0.075,"50":0.065,"51":0.035,"52":0.06,"53":0.03,"54":0.04,"55":0.03,"56":0.025,"57":0.04,"58":0.045,"59":0.015,"60":0.005,"62":0.005,"63":0.005,"64":0.01,"66":0.01,"68":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"10":0.01,"12":0.03,"13":0.03,"14":0.045,"15":0.055,"16":0.04,"17":0.095,"18":0.09,"19":0.105,"20":0.055,"21":0.065,"22":0.08,"23":0.08,"24":0.045,"25":0.025,"26":0.045,"27":0.04,"28":0.015,"29":0.02,"30":0.015,"31":0.005,"32":0.005,"35":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"6":0.005,"7":0.005,"8":0.005,"9":0.015,"10":0.015,"11":0.045,"12":0.005,"13":0.035,"14":0.04,"15":0.05,"16":0.055,"17":0.08,"18":0.065,"19":0.085,"20":0.05,"21":0.055,"22":0.035,"23":0.065,"24":0.05,"25":0.07,"26":0.035,"27":0.02,"28":0.015,"29":0.035,"30":0.01,"31":0.01,"32":0.005,"33":0.005,"34":0.01,"35":0.005,"36":0.01,"38":0.005,"39":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1647388800000,"validUntil":1649980800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":3,"actual":6,"trainingCount":4902,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2022","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.8722000000000003,"mean":5.89,"median":5,"bias":-0.11000000000000032,"maeMean":0.11000000000000032,"maeMedian":1,"low":1,"high":15,"coverage":true,"width":14,"pitLower":0.555,"pitUpper":0.665,"empiricalMass":0.11,"logScore":2.2072749131897207},"rollingETAS":{"crps":1.61835,"mean":3.86,"median":3,"bias":-2.14,"maeMean":2.14,"maeMedian":3,"low":0,"high":9,"coverage":true,"width":9,"pitLower":0.79,"pitUpper":0.865,"empiricalMass":0.075,"logScore":2.5902671654458267},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":1.04955,"mean":6.79,"median":5,"bias":0.79,"maeMean":0.79,"maeMedian":1,"low":1,"high":17,"coverage":true,"width":16,"pitLower":0.515,"pitUpper":0.605,"empiricalMass":0.09,"logScore":2.4079456086518722},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.6474499999999999,"mean":6.62,"median":6.5,"bias":0.6200000000000001,"maeMean":0.6200000000000001,"maeMedian":0.5,"low":2,"high":11,"coverage":true,"width":9,"pitLower":0.355,"pitUpper":0.5,"empiricalMass":0.145,"logScore":1.9310215365615626},"recentPoisson":{"crps":3.055775,"mean":2.135,"median":2,"bias":-3.865,"maeMean":3.865,"maeMedian":4,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":false,"width":5,"pitLower":0.98,"pitUpper":1,"empiricalMass":0.02,"logScore":3.912023005428146},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":2.90945,"mean":2.23,"median":2,"bias":-3.77,"maeMean":3.77,"maeMedian":4,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":false,"width":5,"pitLower":0.95,"pitUpper":0.985,"empiricalMass":0.035,"logScore":3.3524072174927233}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.01,"1":0.07,"2":0.1,"3":0.105,"4":0.155,"5":0.115,"6":0.11,"7":0.1,"8":0.065,"9":0.04,"10":0.025,"11":0.015,"12":0.015,"13":0.01,"14":0.01,"15":0.005,"16":0.015,"17":0.005,"18":0.015,"19":0.005,"21":0.005,"27":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.06,"1":0.115,"2":0.2,"3":0.175,"4":0.145,"5":0.095,"6":0.075,"7":0.06,"8":0.015,"9":0.015,"10":0.005,"11":0.01,"12":0.005,"13":0.005,"14":0.005,"16":0.005,"20":0.005,"21":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.025,"1":0.06,"2":0.09,"3":0.14,"4":0.085,"5":0.115,"6":0.09,"7":0.05,"8":0.095,"9":0.045,"10":0.03,"11":0.025,"12":0.03,"13":0.02,"14":0.01,"15":0.01,"16":0.005,"17":0.025,"18":0.01,"19":0.005,"21":0.01,"24":0.005,"25":0.01,"30":0.005,"33":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"2":0.05,"3":0.04,"4":0.14,"5":0.125,"6":0.145,"7":0.125,"8":0.165,"9":0.085,"10":0.045,"11":0.05,"12":0.015,"13":0.01,"15":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.145,"1":0.195,"2":0.31,"3":0.175,"4":0.1,"5":0.055,"6":0.02},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.145,"1":0.235,"2":0.255,"3":0.14,"4":0.14,"5":0.035,"6":0.035,"8":0.015}}},{"issuedAt":1647388800000,"validUntil":1649980800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":4,"actual":1,"trainingCount":4902,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2022","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.35315,"mean":0.64,"median":0,"bias":-0.36,"maeMean":0.36,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.575,"pitUpper":0.86,"empiricalMass":0.285,"logScore":1.2552660987134867},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.46975000000000006,"mean":0.44,"median":0,"bias":-0.56,"maeMean":0.56,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.68,"pitUpper":0.92,"empiricalMass":0.24,"logScore":1.4271163556401458},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.3379,"mean":0.93,"median":0,"bias":-0.06999999999999995,"maeMean":0.06999999999999995,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.52,"pitUpper":0.775,"empiricalMass":0.255,"logScore":1.3664917338237108},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.26480000000000004,"mean":0.7,"median":1,"bias":-0.30000000000000004,"maeMean":0.30000000000000004,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.49,"pitUpper":0.845,"empiricalMass":0.355,"logScore":1.0356374895067213},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.5338,"mean":0.3,"median":0,"bias":-0.7,"maeMean":0.7,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0.73,"pitUpper":0.97,"empiricalMass":0.24,"logScore":1.4271163556401458},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.58585,"mean":0.26,"median":0,"bias":-0.74,"maeMean":0.74,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0.765,"pitUpper":0.975,"empiricalMass":0.21,"logScore":1.5606477482646683}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.575,"1":0.285,"2":0.09,"3":0.03,"4":0.015,"5":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.68,"1":0.24,"2":0.05,"3":0.025,"5":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.52,"1":0.255,"2":0.115,"3":0.05,"4":0.03,"5":0.015,"6":0.01,"8":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.49,"1":0.355,"2":0.13,"3":0.02,"5":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.73,"1":0.24,"2":0.03},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.765,"1":0.21,"2":0.025}}},{"issuedAt":1649980800000,"validUntil":1650067200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":2,"actual":1,"trainingCount":4930,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2022","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.28705,"mean":1.22,"median":1,"bias":0.21999999999999997,"maeMean":0.21999999999999997,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.4,"pitUpper":0.695,"empiricalMass":0.295,"logScore":1.2207799226423173},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.25995,"mean":0.9,"median":1,"bias":-0.09999999999999998,"maeMean":0.09999999999999998,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.445,"pitUpper":0.76,"empiricalMass":0.315,"logScore":1.155182640156504},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.30332500000000007,"mean":1.405,"median":1,"bias":0.405,"maeMean":0.405,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.41,"pitUpper":0.695,"empiricalMass":0.285,"logScore":1.2552660987134867},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.31247499999999995,"mean":1.655,"median":1,"bias":0.655,"maeMean":0.655,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.19,"pitUpper":0.525,"empiricalMass":0.335,"logScore":1.0936247471570706},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.23937499999999995,"mean":0.815,"median":1,"bias":-0.18500000000000005,"maeMean":0.18500000000000005,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.45,"pitUpper":0.82,"empiricalMass":0.37,"logScore":0.9942522733438669},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.28595,"mean":0.74,"median":0.5,"bias":-0.26,"maeMean":0.26,"maeMedian":0.5,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.5,"pitUpper":0.815,"empiricalMass":0.315,"logScore":1.155182640156504}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.4,"1":0.295,"2":0.15,"3":0.065,"4":0.05,"5":0.03,"8":0.01},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.445,"1":0.315,"2":0.18,"3":0.035,"4":0.02,"8":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.41,"1":0.285,"2":0.14,"3":0.065,"4":0.045,"5":0.035,"6":0.01,"20":0.005,"26":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.19,"1":0.335,"2":0.275,"3":0.105,"4":0.06,"5":0.015,"6":0.015,"10":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.45,"1":0.37,"2":0.115,"3":0.05,"4":0.01,"5":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.5,"1":0.315,"2":0.145,"3":0.03,"4":0.005,"5":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1649980800000,"validUntil":1650067200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":3,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4930,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2022","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.011274999999999993,"mean":0.125,"median":0,"bias":0.125,"maeMean":0.125,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.895,"empiricalMass":0.895,"logScore":0.11093156070728166},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.005725000000000008,"mean":0.095,"median":0,"bias":0.095,"maeMean":0.095,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.925,"empiricalMass":0.925,"logScore":0.0779615414697118},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.01647499999999999,"mean":0.185,"median":0,"bias":0.185,"maeMean":0.185,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.875,"empiricalMass":0.875,"logScore":0.13353139262452263},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.033025,"mean":0.205,"median":0,"bias":0.205,"maeMean":0.205,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.82,"empiricalMass":0.82,"logScore":0.19845093872383832},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.008099999999999996,"mean":0.09,"median":0,"bias":0.09,"maeMean":0.09,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.91,"empiricalMass":0.91,"logScore":0.09431067947124129},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.010024999999999992,"mean":0.105,"median":0,"bias":0.105,"maeMean":0.105,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.9,"empiricalMass":0.9,"logScore":0.10536051565782628}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.895,"1":0.09,"2":0.01,"3":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.925,"1":0.07,"5":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.875,"1":0.1,"2":0.015,"3":0.005,"8":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.82,"1":0.155,"2":0.025},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.91,"1":0.09},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.9,"1":0.095,"2":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1649980800000,"validUntil":1650067200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4930,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2022","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0,"mean":0,"median":0,"bias":0,"maeMean":0,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":1,"empiricalMass":1,"logScore":0},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.0000999999999999994,"mean":0.01,"median":0,"bias":0.01,"maeMean":0.01,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.99,"empiricalMass":0.99,"logScore":0.01005033585350145},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.000449999999999999,"mean":0.03,"median":0,"bias":0.03,"maeMean":0.03,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.98,"empiricalMass":0.98,"logScore":0.020202707317519466},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.0016000000000000042,"mean":0.04,"median":0,"bias":0.04,"maeMean":0.04,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.96,"empiricalMass":0.96,"logScore":0.040821994520255166},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.0002249999999999995,"mean":0.015,"median":0,"bias":0.015,"maeMean":0.015,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.985,"empiricalMass":0.985,"logScore":0.015113637810048184},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.0000999999999999994,"mean":0.01,"median":0,"bias":0.01,"maeMean":0.01,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.99,"empiricalMass":0.99,"logScore":0.01005033585350145}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":1},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.99,"1":0.01},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.98,"1":0.015,"3":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.96,"1":0.04},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.985,"1":0.015},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.99,"1":0.01}}},{"issuedAt":1649980800000,"validUntil":1650585600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":2,"actual":5,"trainingCount":4930,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2022","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":2.318975,"mean":11.245,"median":8,"bias":6.244999999999999,"maeMean":6.244999999999999,"maeMedian":3,"low":2,"high":30,"coverage":true,"width":28,"pitLower":0.205,"pitUpper":0.265,"empiricalMass":0.06,"logScore":2.8134107167600364},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.9631750000000001,"mean":7.015,"median":6,"bias":2.0149999999999997,"maeMean":2.0149999999999997,"maeMedian":1,"low":2,"high":14,"coverage":true,"width":12,"pitLower":0.315,"pitUpper":0.455,"empiricalMass":0.14,"logScore":1.9661128563728327},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":2.21915,"mean":10.4,"median":9,"bias":5.4,"maeMean":5.4,"maeMedian":4,"low":3,"high":21,"coverage":true,"width":18,"pitLower":0.15,"pitUpper":0.255,"empiricalMass":0.105,"logScore":2.2537949288246137},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":4.474225000000001,"mean":11.385,"median":11,"bias":6.385,"maeMean":6.385,"maeMedian":6,"low":6,"high":17,"coverage":false,"width":11,"pitLower":0.01,"pitUpper":0.03,"empiricalMass":0.02,"logScore":3.912023005428146},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.568325,"mean":4.985,"median":5,"bias":-0.01499999999999968,"maeMean":0.01499999999999968,"maeMedian":0,"low":1,"high":9,"coverage":true,"width":8,"pitLower":0.425,"pitUpper":0.585,"empiricalMass":0.16,"logScore":1.8325814637483102},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.5833499999999998,"mean":5.15,"median":5,"bias":0.15000000000000036,"maeMean":0.15000000000000036,"maeMedian":0,"low":1,"high":11,"coverage":true,"width":10,"pitLower":0.455,"pitUpper":0.63,"empiricalMass":0.175,"logScore":1.742969305058623}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.005,"1":0.015,"2":0.03,"3":0.045,"4":0.11,"5":0.06,"6":0.095,"7":0.075,"8":0.075,"9":0.045,"10":0.11,"11":0.025,"12":0.045,"13":0.03,"14":0.015,"15":0.035,"16":0.04,"17":0.01,"18":0.015,"19":0.02,"20":0.005,"21":0.005,"22":0.005,"23":0.015,"25":0.01,"30":0.01,"31":0.01,"35":0.005,"40":0.005,"43":0.005,"47":0.005,"55":0.005,"56":0.005,"72":0.005,"87":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"1":0.025,"2":0.075,"3":0.1,"4":0.115,"5":0.14,"6":0.095,"7":0.085,"8":0.095,"9":0.055,"10":0.065,"11":0.015,"12":0.035,"13":0.04,"14":0.02,"15":0.01,"16":0.005,"20":0.005,"21":0.005,"26":0.005,"28":0.005,"44":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.005,"1":0.005,"2":0.015,"3":0.04,"4":0.085,"5":0.105,"6":0.07,"7":0.085,"8":0.085,"9":0.09,"10":0.065,"11":0.075,"12":0.05,"13":0.025,"14":0.025,"15":0.035,"16":0.025,"17":0.005,"18":0.02,"19":0.015,"20":0.015,"21":0.01,"24":0.015,"26":0.005,"31":0.005,"36":0.005,"44":0.005,"55":0.005,"62":0.005,"66":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"3":0.005,"4":0.005,"5":0.02,"6":0.035,"7":0.075,"8":0.065,"9":0.1,"10":0.115,"11":0.13,"12":0.085,"13":0.105,"14":0.06,"15":0.08,"16":0.035,"17":0.035,"18":0.03,"19":0.015,"22":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.005,"1":0.07,"2":0.08,"3":0.14,"4":0.13,"5":0.16,"6":0.14,"7":0.14,"8":0.075,"9":0.03,"10":0.01,"11":0.015,"12":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.015,"1":0.075,"2":0.075,"3":0.11,"4":0.18,"5":0.175,"6":0.115,"7":0.065,"8":0.07,"9":0.03,"10":0.035,"11":0.02,"12":0.02,"13":0.005,"14":0.005,"16":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1649980800000,"validUntil":1650585600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":3,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4930,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2022","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.4577500000000001,"mean":1.34,"median":1,"bias":1.34,"maeMean":1.34,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.41,"empiricalMass":0.41,"logScore":0.8915981192837836},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.23785,"mean":0.77,"median":0,"bias":0.77,"maeMean":0.77,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.56,"empiricalMass":0.56,"logScore":0.579818495252942},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.527625,"mean":1.375,"median":1,"bias":1.375,"maeMean":1.375,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.38,"empiricalMass":0.38,"logScore":0.9675840262617056},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.7979499999999999,"mean":1.38,"median":1,"bias":1.38,"maeMean":1.38,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.22,"empiricalMass":0.22,"logScore":1.5141277326297755},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.26562500000000006,"mean":0.675,"median":0,"bias":0.675,"maeMean":0.675,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.505,"empiricalMass":0.505,"logScore":0.6831968497067772},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.167275,"mean":0.515,"median":0,"bias":0.515,"maeMean":0.515,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.605,"empiricalMass":0.605,"logScore":0.5025268209512956}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.41,"1":0.325,"2":0.12,"3":0.05,"4":0.035,"5":0.015,"6":0.005,"7":0.005,"8":0.01,"9":0.015,"11":0.005,"15":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.56,"1":0.25,"2":0.105,"3":0.06,"4":0.01,"5":0.01,"8":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.38,"1":0.31,"2":0.13,"3":0.08,"4":0.05,"5":0.025,"7":0.005,"9":0.01,"10":0.005,"13":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.22,"1":0.38,"2":0.23,"3":0.145,"4":0.02,"5":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.505,"1":0.355,"2":0.11,"3":0.02,"4":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.605,"1":0.29,"2":0.09,"3":0.015}}},{"issuedAt":1649980800000,"validUntil":1650585600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4930,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2022","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.012149999999999994,"mean":0.16,"median":0,"bias":0.16,"maeMean":0.16,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.9,"empiricalMass":0.9,"logScore":0.10536051565782628},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.005624999999999991,"mean":0.075,"median":0,"bias":0.075,"maeMean":0.075,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.925,"empiricalMass":0.925,"logScore":0.0779615414697118},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.010125000000000009,"mean":0.115,"median":0,"bias":0.115,"maeMean":0.115,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.9,"empiricalMass":0.9,"logScore":0.10536051565782628},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.01112500000000001,"mean":0.115,"median":0,"bias":0.115,"maeMean":0.115,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.895,"empiricalMass":0.895,"logScore":0.11093156070728166},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.0016000000000000042,"mean":0.04,"median":0,"bias":0.04,"maeMean":0.04,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.96,"empiricalMass":0.96,"logScore":0.040821994520255166},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.004924999999999999,"mean":0.075,"median":0,"bias":0.075,"maeMean":0.075,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.93,"empiricalMass":0.93,"logScore":0.07257069283483537}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.9,"1":0.055,"2":0.035,"3":0.005,"4":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.925,"1":0.075},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.9,"1":0.09,"2":0.005,"3":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.895,"1":0.095,"2":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.96,"1":0.04},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.93,"1":0.065,"2":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1649980800000,"validUntil":1652572800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":2,"actual":23,"trainingCount":4930,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2022","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":15.4347,"mean":51.47,"median":44,"bias":28.47,"maeMean":28.47,"maeMedian":21,"low":23,"high":115,"coverage":true,"width":92,"pitLower":0.04,"pitUpper":0.06,"empiricalMass":0.02,"logScore":3.912023005428146},"rollingETAS":{"crps":3.0264249999999997,"mean":29.585,"median":27,"bias":6.585000000000001,"maeMean":6.585000000000001,"maeMedian":4,"low":15,"high":51,"coverage":true,"width":36,"pitLower":0.3,"pitUpper":0.375,"empiricalMass":0.075,"logScore":2.5902671654458267},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":15.314800000000002,"mean":49.47,"median":43,"bias":26.47,"maeMean":26.47,"maeMedian":20,"low":24,"high":97,"coverage":false,"width":73,"pitLower":0.025,"pitUpper":0.045,"empiricalMass":0.02,"logScore":3.912023005428146},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":22.146749999999997,"mean":49.2,"median":50,"bias":26.200000000000003,"maeMean":26.200000000000003,"maeMedian":27,"low":37,"high":61,"coverage":false,"width":24,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentPoisson":{"crps":1.215675,"mean":21.835,"median":22,"bias":-1.1649999999999991,"maeMean":1.1649999999999991,"maeMedian":1,"low":14,"high":30,"coverage":true,"width":16,"pitLower":0.585,"pitUpper":0.655,"empiricalMass":0.07,"logScore":2.659260036932778},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":2.08675,"mean":20.61,"median":20,"bias":-2.3900000000000006,"maeMean":2.3900000000000006,"maeMedian":3,"low":10,"high":33,"coverage":true,"width":23,"pitLower":0.66,"pitUpper":0.695,"empiricalMass":0.035,"logScore":3.3524072174927233}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"13":0.005,"17":0.005,"19":0.01,"21":0.01,"22":0.01,"23":0.02,"24":0.015,"25":0.01,"26":0.01,"28":0.005,"29":0.03,"30":0.015,"31":0.025,"32":0.015,"33":0.045,"34":0.03,"35":0.015,"36":0.05,"37":0.02,"38":0.01,"39":0.035,"40":0.02,"41":0.02,"42":0.03,"43":0.015,"44":0.035,"45":0.035,"46":0.025,"47":0.01,"48":0.025,"49":0.015,"50":0.025,"51":0.005,"52":0.025,"54":0.01,"55":0.01,"58":0.01,"59":0.015,"60":0.02,"61":0.01,"62":0.01,"63":0.02,"64":0.005,"65":0.015,"66":0.005,"67":0.005,"69":0.015,"70":0.015,"71":0.01,"74":0.01,"76":0.01,"77":0.005,"78":0.005,"80":0.005,"81":0.01,"82":0.005,"83":0.005,"85":0.005,"86":0.005,"88":0.005,"89":0.005,"93":0.005,"96":0.005,"100":0.005,"104":0.005,"115":0.005,"117":0.01,"128":0.005,"132":0.005,"136":0.005,"137":0.005,"140":0.005,"144":0.005,"147":0.005,"152":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"11":0.005,"12":0.005,"13":0.01,"14":0.015,"15":0.025,"16":0.01,"17":0.03,"18":0.035,"19":0.03,"20":0.04,"21":0.05,"22":0.045,"23":0.075,"24":0.035,"25":0.02,"26":0.055,"27":0.045,"28":0.025,"29":0.035,"30":0.02,"31":0.055,"32":0.02,"33":0.025,"34":0.035,"35":0.02,"36":0.015,"37":0.02,"38":0.01,"39":0.02,"40":0.02,"41":0.015,"42":0.015,"43":0.02,"44":0.005,"45":0.01,"48":0.01,"49":0.005,"50":0.015,"51":0.015,"57":0.005,"58":0.005,"60":0.005,"61":0.005,"63":0.005,"69":0.005,"86":0.005,"87":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"14":0.005,"16":0.015,"22":0.005,"23":0.02,"24":0.015,"25":0.01,"26":0.015,"27":0.01,"28":0.025,"29":0.03,"30":0.005,"31":0.025,"32":0.01,"33":0.01,"34":0.015,"35":0.025,"36":0.03,"37":0.04,"38":0.04,"39":0.035,"40":0.04,"41":0.025,"42":0.025,"43":0.03,"44":0.025,"45":0.02,"46":0.01,"47":0.005,"48":0.015,"49":0.015,"50":0.02,"51":0.015,"52":0.04,"53":0.015,"54":0.01,"55":0.01,"56":0.03,"57":0.01,"58":0.015,"59":0.02,"60":0.005,"61":0.015,"62":0.005,"63":0.01,"64":0.01,"65":0.005,"67":0.005,"68":0.01,"69":0.01,"71":0.005,"72":0.01,"74":0.005,"75":0.01,"76":0.005,"79":0.005,"80":0.005,"84":0.01,"86":0.005,"87":0.005,"89":0.005,"90":0.005,"91":0.005,"93":0.005,"96":0.005,"97":0.005,"98":0.015,"107":0.01,"109":0.005,"112":0.005,"120":0.005,"121":0.005,"134":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"29":0.005,"32":0.005,"33":0.005,"34":0.005,"35":0.01,"36":0.015,"37":0.015,"38":0.035,"39":0.02,"40":0.01,"41":0.015,"42":0.025,"43":0.035,"44":0.05,"45":0.065,"46":0.035,"47":0.035,"48":0.055,"49":0.05,"50":0.055,"51":0.075,"52":0.05,"53":0.055,"54":0.03,"55":0.09,"56":0.01,"57":0.03,"58":0.01,"59":0.03,"60":0.01,"61":0.02,"62":0.015,"63":0.015,"65":0.01,"68":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"9":0.005,"10":0.005,"11":0.005,"13":0.02,"14":0.03,"15":0.035,"16":0.04,"17":0.04,"18":0.035,"19":0.075,"20":0.1,"21":0.095,"22":0.1,"23":0.07,"24":0.075,"25":0.065,"26":0.045,"27":0.05,"28":0.025,"29":0.02,"30":0.015,"31":0.015,"32":0.005,"33":0.025,"35":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"3":0.005,"7":0.015,"9":0.005,"10":0.03,"11":0.02,"12":0.025,"13":0.05,"14":0.025,"15":0.045,"16":0.05,"17":0.06,"18":0.08,"19":0.055,"20":0.08,"21":0.05,"22":0.065,"23":0.035,"24":0.04,"25":0.045,"26":0.04,"27":0.025,"28":0.02,"29":0.045,"30":0.02,"31":0.01,"33":0.01,"34":0.01,"35":0.015,"36":0.01,"38":0.005,"44":0.01}}},{"issuedAt":1649980800000,"validUntil":1652572800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":3,"actual":2,"trainingCount":4930,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2022","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":2.0334,"mean":6.3,"median":5,"bias":4.3,"maeMean":4.3,"maeMedian":3,"low":1,"high":16,"coverage":true,"width":15,"pitLower":0.12,"pitUpper":0.195,"empiricalMass":0.075,"logScore":2.5902671654458267},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.8627,"mean":3.84,"median":3,"bias":1.8399999999999999,"maeMean":1.8399999999999999,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":9,"coverage":true,"width":9,"pitLower":0.21,"pitUpper":0.375,"empiricalMass":0.165,"logScore":1.8018098050815563},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":1.8343500000000001,"mean":5.77,"median":5,"bias":3.7699999999999996,"maeMean":3.7699999999999996,"maeMedian":3,"low":1,"high":14,"coverage":true,"width":13,"pitLower":0.095,"pitUpper":0.215,"empiricalMass":0.12,"logScore":2.120263536200091},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":2.6572749999999994,"mean":6.095,"median":6,"bias":4.095,"maeMean":4.095,"maeMedian":4,"low":2,"high":11,"coverage":true,"width":9,"pitLower":0.025,"pitUpper":0.085,"empiricalMass":0.06,"logScore":2.8134107167600364},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.38680000000000003,"mean":2.61,"median":2,"bias":0.6099999999999999,"maeMean":0.6099999999999999,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":6,"coverage":true,"width":6,"pitLower":0.27,"pitUpper":0.525,"empiricalMass":0.255,"logScore":1.3664917338237108},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.47372499999999995,"mean":2.675,"median":2,"bias":0.6749999999999998,"maeMean":0.6749999999999998,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":6,"coverage":true,"width":6,"pitLower":0.325,"pitUpper":0.545,"empiricalMass":0.22,"logScore":1.5141277326297755}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.025,"1":0.095,"2":0.075,"3":0.11,"4":0.12,"5":0.145,"6":0.07,"7":0.06,"8":0.065,"9":0.05,"10":0.06,"11":0.01,"12":0.02,"13":0.01,"14":0.02,"15":0.005,"16":0.01,"17":0.01,"20":0.02,"25":0.005,"27":0.01,"30":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.055,"1":0.155,"2":0.165,"3":0.155,"4":0.14,"5":0.095,"6":0.09,"7":0.045,"8":0.035,"9":0.015,"10":0.015,"11":0.01,"12":0.01,"13":0.005,"14":0.01},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.02,"1":0.075,"2":0.12,"3":0.125,"4":0.115,"5":0.11,"6":0.09,"7":0.085,"8":0.055,"9":0.055,"10":0.03,"11":0.03,"12":0.015,"13":0.02,"14":0.01,"15":0.01,"16":0.015,"18":0.005,"20":0.01,"22":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"1":0.025,"2":0.06,"3":0.09,"4":0.115,"5":0.125,"6":0.185,"7":0.11,"8":0.11,"9":0.075,"10":0.045,"11":0.025,"12":0.025,"13":0.005,"14":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.07,"1":0.2,"2":0.255,"3":0.225,"4":0.12,"5":0.075,"6":0.025,"7":0.025,"9":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.14,"1":0.185,"2":0.22,"3":0.15,"4":0.11,"5":0.11,"6":0.035,"7":0.03,"8":0.01,"11":0.01}}},{"issuedAt":1649980800000,"validUntil":1652572800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4930,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2022","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.19532499999999997,"mean":0.705,"median":0,"bias":0.705,"maeMean":0.705,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.595,"empiricalMass":0.595,"logScore":0.5191938734365074},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.13637500000000002,"mean":0.445,"median":0,"bias":0.445,"maeMean":0.445,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.635,"empiricalMass":0.635,"logScore":0.4541302800894454},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.15409999999999996,"mean":0.59,"median":0,"bias":0.59,"maeMean":0.59,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.64,"empiricalMass":0.64,"logScore":0.4462871026284195},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.40295000000000003,"mean":0.89,"median":1,"bias":0.89,"maeMean":0.89,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.415,"empiricalMass":0.415,"logScore":0.8794767587514388},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.10622500000000001,"mean":0.395,"median":0,"bias":0.395,"maeMean":0.395,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.68,"empiricalMass":0.68,"logScore":0.3856624808119846},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.07745000000000002,"mean":0.33,"median":0,"bias":0.33,"maeMean":0.33,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.725,"empiricalMass":0.725,"logScore":0.32158362412746233}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.595,"1":0.255,"2":0.065,"3":0.05,"4":0.02,"5":0.005,"6":0.005,"7":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.635,"1":0.315,"2":0.025,"3":0.02,"4":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.64,"1":0.215,"2":0.09,"3":0.035,"4":0.015,"6":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.415,"1":0.345,"2":0.185,"3":0.045,"4":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.68,"1":0.26,"2":0.045,"3":0.015},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.725,"1":0.235,"2":0.025,"3":0.015}}},{"issuedAt":1652572800000,"validUntil":1652659200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":2,"actual":2,"trainingCount":4953,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2022","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.749275,"mean":1.045,"median":1,"bias":-0.9550000000000001,"maeMean":0.9550000000000001,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.725,"pitUpper":0.895,"empiricalMass":0.17,"logScore":1.7719568419318752},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.7221,"mean":1.07,"median":1,"bias":-0.9299999999999999,"maeMean":0.9299999999999999,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.7,"pitUpper":0.895,"empiricalMass":0.195,"logScore":1.6347557204183902},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.6163000000000001,"mean":1.22,"median":1,"bias":-0.78,"maeMean":0.78,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.67,"pitUpper":0.87,"empiricalMass":0.2,"logScore":1.6094379124341003},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.3743749999999999,"mean":1.665,"median":1,"bias":-0.33499999999999996,"maeMean":0.33499999999999996,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.52,"pitUpper":0.745,"empiricalMass":0.225,"logScore":1.491654876777717},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.9014,"mean":0.74,"median":1,"bias":-1.26,"maeMean":1.26,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.83,"pitUpper":0.97,"empiricalMass":0.14,"logScore":1.9661128563728327},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":1.03185,"mean":0.63,"median":0,"bias":-1.37,"maeMean":1.37,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.86,"pitUpper":0.975,"empiricalMass":0.115,"logScore":2.162823150618887}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.455,"1":0.27,"2":0.17,"3":0.04,"4":0.03,"5":0.025,"6":0.005,"8":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.465,"1":0.235,"2":0.195,"3":0.045,"4":0.03,"5":0.015,"6":0.01,"11":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.38,"1":0.29,"2":0.2,"3":0.065,"4":0.03,"5":0.015,"6":0.005,"7":0.01,"8":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.175,"1":0.345,"2":0.225,"3":0.165,"4":0.075,"5":0.015},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.46,"1":0.37,"2":0.14,"3":0.03},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.54,"1":0.32,"2":0.115,"3":0.02,"4":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1652572800000,"validUntil":1652659200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":3,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4953,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2022","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.004225,"mean":0.065,"median":0,"bias":0.065,"maeMean":0.065,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.935,"empiricalMass":0.935,"logScore":0.06720874969344999},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.011475000000000013,"mean":0.135,"median":0,"bias":0.135,"maeMean":0.135,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.895,"empiricalMass":0.895,"logScore":0.11093156070728166},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.012325000000000003,"mean":0.125,"median":0,"bias":0.125,"maeMean":0.125,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.89,"empiricalMass":0.89,"logScore":0.11653381625595151},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.024125000000000008,"mean":0.165,"median":0,"bias":0.165,"maeMean":0.165,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.845,"empiricalMass":0.845,"logScore":0.16841865162496325},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.009025000000000005,"mean":0.095,"median":0,"bias":0.095,"maeMean":0.095,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.905,"empiricalMass":0.905,"logScore":0.0998203352822109},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.010099999999999998,"mean":0.11,"median":0,"bias":0.11,"maeMean":0.11,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.9,"empiricalMass":0.9,"logScore":0.10536051565782628}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.935,"1":0.065},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.895,"1":0.085,"2":0.015,"4":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.89,"1":0.095,"2":0.015},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.845,"1":0.145,"2":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.905,"1":0.095},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.9,"1":0.09,"2":0.01}}},{"issuedAt":1652572800000,"validUntil":1652659200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4953,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2022","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0,"mean":0,"median":0,"bias":0,"maeMean":0,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":1,"empiricalMass":1,"logScore":0},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.0002249999999999995,"mean":0.015,"median":0,"bias":0.015,"maeMean":0.015,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.985,"empiricalMass":0.985,"logScore":0.015113637810048184},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.00042500000000000177,"mean":0.025,"median":0,"bias":0.025,"maeMean":0.025,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.98,"empiricalMass":0.98,"logScore":0.020202707317519466},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.0012250000000000039,"mean":0.035,"median":0,"bias":0.035,"maeMean":0.035,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.965,"empiricalMass":0.965,"logScore":0.03562717764315116},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.0002249999999999995,"mean":0.015,"median":0,"bias":0.015,"maeMean":0.015,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.985,"empiricalMass":0.985,"logScore":0.015113637810048184},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.0002249999999999995,"mean":0.015,"median":0,"bias":0.015,"maeMean":0.015,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.985,"empiricalMass":0.985,"logScore":0.015113637810048184}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":1},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.985,"1":0.015},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.98,"1":0.015,"2":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.965,"1":0.035},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.985,"1":0.015},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.985,"1":0.015}}},{"issuedAt":1652572800000,"validUntil":1653177600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":2,"actual":4,"trainingCount":4953,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2022","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":3.1633999999999993,"mean":11.24,"median":9,"bias":7.24,"maeMean":7.24,"maeMedian":5,"low":3,"high":27,"coverage":true,"width":24,"pitLower":0.095,"pitUpper":0.165,"empiricalMass":0.07,"logScore":2.659260036932778},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.9599500000000001,"mean":6.28,"median":5,"bias":2.2800000000000002,"maeMean":2.2800000000000002,"maeMedian":1,"low":2,"high":14,"coverage":true,"width":12,"pitLower":0.21,"pitUpper":0.395,"empiricalMass":0.185,"logScore":1.6873994539038122},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":3.2763999999999998,"mean":10.98,"median":9,"bias":6.98,"maeMean":6.98,"maeMedian":5,"low":3,"high":25,"coverage":true,"width":22,"pitLower":0.085,"pitUpper":0.15,"empiricalMass":0.065,"logScore":2.7333680090865},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":5.500275,"mean":11.395,"median":12,"bias":7.395,"maeMean":7.395,"maeMedian":8,"low":6,"high":17,"coverage":false,"width":11,"pitLower":0.005,"pitUpper":0.02,"empiricalMass":0.015,"logScore":4.199705077879927},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.7547250000000001,"mean":5.125,"median":5,"bias":1.125,"maeMean":1.125,"maeMedian":1,"low":2,"high":10,"coverage":true,"width":8,"pitLower":0.31,"pitUpper":0.4,"empiricalMass":0.09,"logScore":2.4079456086518722},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.6640249999999999,"mean":4.505,"median":4,"bias":0.5049999999999999,"maeMean":0.5049999999999999,"maeMedian":0,"low":1,"high":9,"coverage":true,"width":8,"pitLower":0.39,"pitUpper":0.52,"empiricalMass":0.13,"logScore":2.0402208285265546}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"1":0.01,"2":0.025,"3":0.06,"4":0.07,"5":0.055,"6":0.075,"7":0.105,"8":0.08,"9":0.075,"10":0.09,"11":0.045,"12":0.055,"13":0.04,"14":0.035,"15":0.02,"16":0.015,"17":0.01,"18":0.02,"19":0.015,"20":0.005,"21":0.005,"22":0.005,"23":0.015,"25":0.005,"26":0.01,"27":0.005,"29":0.005,"30":0.005,"31":0.005,"38":0.005,"42":0.005,"44":0.005,"46":0.005,"55":0.005,"70":0.005,"84":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.005,"1":0.04,"2":0.085,"3":0.08,"4":0.185,"5":0.125,"6":0.105,"7":0.125,"8":0.07,"9":0.02,"10":0.035,"11":0.03,"12":0.01,"13":0.025,"14":0.03,"15":0.005,"17":0.005,"18":0.005,"19":0.005,"27":0.005,"39":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"1":0.02,"2":0.02,"3":0.045,"4":0.065,"5":0.09,"6":0.06,"7":0.06,"8":0.075,"9":0.085,"10":0.11,"11":0.045,"12":0.04,"13":0.035,"14":0.075,"15":0.03,"16":0.02,"17":0.02,"18":0.015,"19":0.01,"20":0.005,"21":0.005,"22":0.015,"25":0.015,"26":0.005,"29":0.005,"32":0.005,"37":0.005,"53":0.005,"54":0.005,"66":0.005,"77":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"2":0.005,"4":0.015,"5":0.02,"6":0.04,"7":0.055,"8":0.08,"9":0.075,"10":0.1,"11":0.105,"12":0.11,"13":0.13,"14":0.085,"15":0.07,"16":0.045,"17":0.035,"18":0.015,"19":0.01,"21":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"1":0.03,"2":0.14,"3":0.14,"4":0.09,"5":0.195,"6":0.14,"7":0.125,"8":0.04,"9":0.04,"10":0.03,"11":0.015,"13":0.01,"14":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.04,"1":0.1,"2":0.125,"3":0.125,"4":0.13,"5":0.145,"6":0.125,"7":0.05,"8":0.08,"9":0.045,"10":0.015,"11":0.01,"12":0.005,"14":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1652572800000,"validUntil":1653177600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":3,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4953,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2022","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.4656500000000001,"mean":1.34,"median":1,"bias":1.34,"maeMean":1.34,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.425,"empiricalMass":0.425,"logScore":0.8556661100577202},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.23657499999999998,"mean":0.735,"median":0,"bias":0.735,"maeMean":0.735,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.555,"empiricalMass":0.555,"logScore":0.5887871652357024},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.50515,"mean":1.28,"median":1,"bias":1.28,"maeMean":1.28,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.375,"empiricalMass":0.375,"logScore":0.9808292530117262},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.9250749999999999,"mean":1.535,"median":1,"bias":1.535,"maeMean":1.535,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.195,"empiricalMass":0.195,"logScore":1.6347557204183902},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.1597,"mean":0.52,"median":0,"bias":0.52,"maeMean":0.52,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.615,"empiricalMass":0.615,"logScore":0.4861330111756192},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.11867500000000003,"mean":0.505,"median":0,"bias":0.505,"maeMean":0.505,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.68,"empiricalMass":0.68,"logScore":0.3856624808119846}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.425,"1":0.27,"2":0.145,"3":0.06,"4":0.045,"5":0.015,"6":0.015,"7":0.005,"8":0.005,"11":0.01,"14":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.555,"1":0.26,"2":0.13,"3":0.025,"4":0.01,"5":0.02},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.375,"1":0.335,"2":0.145,"3":0.075,"4":0.02,"5":0.02,"6":0.01,"7":0.005,"10":0.01,"11":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.195,"1":0.31,"2":0.325,"3":0.115,"4":0.045,"5":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.615,"1":0.28,"2":0.09,"4":0.015},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.68,"1":0.2,"2":0.08,"3":0.025,"4":0.01,"6":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1652572800000,"validUntil":1653177600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":4953,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2022","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.013374999999999998,"mean":0.155,"median":0,"bias":0.155,"maeMean":0.155,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.89,"empiricalMass":0.89,"logScore":0.11653381625595151},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.004225,"mean":0.065,"median":0,"bias":0.065,"maeMean":0.065,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.935,"empiricalMass":0.935,"logScore":0.06720874969344999},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.0074749999999999955,"mean":0.105,"median":0,"bias":0.105,"maeMean":0.105,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.915,"empiricalMass":0.915,"logScore":0.0888312137066157},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.02445,"mean":0.18,"median":0,"bias":0.18,"maeMean":0.18,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.845,"empiricalMass":0.845,"logScore":0.16841865162496325},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.003025,"mean":0.055,"median":0,"bias":0.055,"maeMean":0.055,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.945,"empiricalMass":0.945,"logScore":0.05657035148839435},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.002599999999999998,"mean":0.06,"median":0,"bias":0.06,"maeMean":0.06,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.95,"empiricalMass":0.95,"logScore":0.05129329438755058}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.89,"1":0.075,"2":0.03,"4":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.935,"1":0.065},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.915,"1":0.07,"2":0.01,"3":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.845,"1":0.135,"2":0.015,"3":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.945,"1":0.055},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.95,"1":0.04,"2":0.01}}},{"issuedAt":1652572800000,"validUntil":1655164800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":2,"actual":48,"trainingCount":4953,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2022","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":5.025024999999999,"mean":49.255,"median":45,"bias":1.2550000000000026,"maeMean":1.2550000000000026,"maeMedian":3,"low":21,"high":86,"coverage":true,"width":65,"pitLower":0.555,"pitUpper":0.57,"empiricalMass":0.015,"logScore":4.199705077879927},"rollingETAS":{"crps":15.482475,"mean":28.975,"median":26,"bias":-19.025,"maeMean":19.025,"maeMedian":22,"low":14,"high":47,"coverage":false,"width":33,"pitLower":0.95,"pitUpper":0.95,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":4.797375000000002,"mean":48.095,"median":43,"bias":0.09499999999999886,"maeMean":0.09499999999999886,"maeMedian":5,"low":23,"high":88,"coverage":true,"width":65,"pitLower":0.615,"pitUpper":0.63,"empiricalMass":0.015,"logScore":4.199705077879927},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":1.6912500000000001,"mean":48.59,"median":49,"bias":0.5900000000000034,"maeMean":0.5900000000000034,"maeMedian":1,"low":37,"high":60,"coverage":true,"width":23,"pitLower":0.425,"pitUpper":0.475,"empiricalMass":0.05,"logScore":2.995732273553991},"recentPoisson":{"crps":23.833925,"mean":21.625,"median":22,"bias":-26.375,"maeMean":26.375,"maeMedian":26,"low":14,"high":29,"coverage":false,"width":15,"pitLower":1,"pitUpper":1,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":22.7181,"mean":22.17,"median":22,"bias":-25.83,"maeMean":25.83,"maeMedian":26,"low":13,"high":31,"coverage":false,"width":18,"pitLower":1,"pitUpper":1,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"9":0.005,"18":0.005,"19":0.02,"20":0.005,"21":0.015,"22":0.01,"23":0.015,"24":0.02,"25":0.02,"26":0.005,"27":0.035,"29":0.03,"30":0.02,"31":0.025,"32":0.015,"33":0.03,"34":0.015,"35":0.025,"36":0.03,"37":0.015,"38":0.035,"39":0.015,"40":0.03,"41":0.005,"42":0.015,"43":0.01,"44":0.015,"45":0.02,"46":0.015,"47":0.035,"48":0.015,"49":0.015,"50":0.01,"51":0.025,"52":0.015,"53":0.01,"54":0.01,"55":0.015,"56":0.025,"57":0.02,"58":0.025,"59":0.015,"60":0.015,"61":0.015,"62":0.01,"63":0.01,"64":0.01,"65":0.005,"66":0.01,"67":0.01,"68":0.005,"69":0.005,"70":0.015,"72":0.01,"73":0.005,"74":0.005,"75":0.005,"78":0.005,"79":0.005,"80":0.01,"81":0.01,"82":0.01,"84":0.005,"85":0.01,"86":0.005,"87":0.005,"92":0.005,"96":0.005,"98":0.005,"102":0.005,"107":0.005,"121":0.005,"144":0.005,"174":0.005,"194":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"11":0.005,"12":0.01,"13":0.025,"14":0.015,"16":0.015,"17":0.02,"18":0.025,"19":0.055,"20":0.055,"21":0.065,"22":0.055,"23":0.045,"24":0.04,"25":0.03,"26":0.045,"27":0.075,"28":0.035,"29":0.035,"30":0.045,"31":0.05,"32":0.015,"33":0.01,"34":0.045,"35":0.005,"36":0.005,"37":0.025,"38":0.015,"39":0.015,"40":0.01,"42":0.015,"43":0.01,"45":0.01,"46":0.015,"47":0.01,"50":0.01,"51":0.005,"54":0.005,"71":0.005,"74":0.005,"79":0.005,"86":0.005,"118":0.005,"134":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"16":0.015,"21":0.01,"22":0.02,"23":0.015,"24":0.015,"25":0.01,"26":0.005,"27":0.03,"28":0.03,"29":0.03,"30":0.03,"31":0.03,"32":0.02,"33":0.03,"34":0.01,"35":0.01,"36":0.05,"37":0.02,"38":0.01,"39":0.02,"40":0.015,"41":0.04,"42":0.015,"43":0.025,"44":0.035,"45":0.02,"46":0.02,"47":0.035,"48":0.015,"49":0.025,"50":0.03,"51":0.02,"52":0.01,"53":0.01,"56":0.015,"57":0.02,"58":0.02,"59":0.01,"60":0.015,"62":0.015,"63":0.005,"64":0.005,"65":0.005,"68":0.01,"69":0.01,"70":0.01,"71":0.015,"74":0.005,"75":0.005,"77":0.005,"78":0.005,"79":0.01,"80":0.01,"82":0.005,"83":0.01,"85":0.01,"88":0.005,"91":0.01,"92":0.01,"96":0.005,"121":0.005,"133":0.005,"139":0.005,"164":0.005,"179":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"30":0.005,"32":0.005,"33":0.005,"34":0.005,"35":0.005,"36":0.005,"37":0.03,"38":0.03,"39":0.015,"40":0.01,"41":0.04,"42":0.045,"43":0.055,"44":0.055,"45":0.035,"46":0.05,"47":0.03,"48":0.05,"49":0.055,"50":0.085,"51":0.07,"52":0.045,"53":0.035,"54":0.035,"55":0.055,"56":0.03,"57":0.02,"58":0.02,"59":0.02,"60":0.005,"61":0.005,"62":0.01,"63":0.005,"64":0.01,"65":0.005,"68":0.005,"72":0.005,"73":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"11":0.01,"12":0.01,"13":0.01,"14":0.03,"15":0.03,"16":0.025,"17":0.035,"18":0.09,"19":0.095,"20":0.095,"21":0.065,"22":0.115,"23":0.07,"24":0.075,"25":0.07,"26":0.03,"27":0.04,"28":0.04,"29":0.025,"30":0.015,"33":0.01,"34":0.005,"36":0.005,"37":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"10":0.005,"11":0.015,"12":0.02,"13":0.02,"14":0.035,"15":0.025,"16":0.05,"17":0.04,"18":0.05,"19":0.06,"20":0.085,"21":0.045,"22":0.055,"23":0.06,"24":0.06,"25":0.115,"26":0.065,"27":0.045,"28":0.05,"29":0.015,"30":0.025,"31":0.01,"32":0.01,"33":0.015,"35":0.01,"36":0.005,"37":0.005,"38":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1652572800000,"validUntil":1655164800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":3,"actual":5,"trainingCount":4953,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2022","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.842775,"mean":5.985,"median":5,"bias":0.9850000000000003,"maeMean":0.9850000000000003,"maeMedian":0,"low":1,"high":15,"coverage":true,"width":14,"pitLower":0.43,"pitUpper":0.56,"empiricalMass":0.13,"logScore":2.0402208285265546},"rollingETAS":{"crps":1.10425,"mean":3.79,"median":3,"bias":-1.21,"maeMean":1.21,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":9,"coverage":true,"width":9,"pitLower":0.705,"pitUpper":0.8,"empiricalMass":0.095,"logScore":2.353878387381596},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.8621249999999998,"mean":5.705,"median":4,"bias":0.7050000000000001,"maeMean":0.7050000000000001,"maeMedian":1,"low":1,"high":14,"coverage":true,"width":13,"pitLower":0.505,"pitUpper":0.6,"empiricalMass":0.095,"logScore":2.353878387381596},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.9322499999999998,"mean":6.7,"median":6.5,"bias":1.7000000000000002,"maeMean":1.7000000000000002,"maeMedian":1.5,"low":3,"high":11,"coverage":true,"width":8,"pitLower":0.195,"pitUpper":0.33,"empiricalMass":0.135,"logScore":2.0024805005437076},"recentPoisson":{"crps":1.5141,"mean":2.75,"median":3,"bias":-2.25,"maeMean":2.25,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":6,"coverage":true,"width":6,"pitLower":0.855,"pitUpper":0.945,"empiricalMass":0.09,"logScore":2.4079456086518722},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":1.5635250000000003,"mean":2.685,"median":2,"bias":-2.315,"maeMean":2.315,"maeMedian":3,"low":0,"high":6,"coverage":true,"width":6,"pitLower":0.84,"pitUpper":0.915,"empiricalMass":0.075,"logScore":2.5902671654458267}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.015,"1":0.065,"2":0.11,"3":0.155,"4":0.085,"5":0.13,"6":0.09,"7":0.07,"8":0.085,"9":0.045,"10":0.035,"11":0.015,"12":0.035,"13":0.005,"15":0.015,"16":0.005,"17":0.01,"18":0.005,"20":0.005,"21":0.01,"22":0.005,"29":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.09,"1":0.095,"2":0.19,"3":0.21,"4":0.12,"5":0.095,"6":0.065,"7":0.025,"8":0.03,"9":0.035,"10":0.005,"11":0.02,"13":0.005,"16":0.005,"17":0.005,"22":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.03,"1":0.065,"2":0.11,"3":0.17,"4":0.13,"5":0.095,"6":0.095,"7":0.055,"8":0.06,"9":0.035,"10":0.025,"11":0.045,"12":0.02,"13":0.01,"14":0.005,"15":0.01,"16":0.01,"17":0.005,"18":0.005,"19":0.005,"24":0.005,"27":0.005,"29":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.015,"1":0.005,"2":0.005,"3":0.03,"4":0.14,"5":0.135,"6":0.17,"7":0.16,"8":0.11,"9":0.11,"10":0.04,"11":0.045,"12":0.015,"13":0.01,"14":0.005,"15":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.065,"1":0.175,"2":0.23,"3":0.235,"4":0.15,"5":0.09,"6":0.04,"7":0.01,"10":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.1,"1":0.21,"2":0.2,"3":0.185,"4":0.145,"5":0.075,"6":0.05,"7":0.02,"8":0.01,"9":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1652572800000,"validUntil":1655164800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":4,"actual":2,"trainingCount":4953,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2022","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":1.020175,"mean":0.715,"median":0,"bias":-1.2850000000000001,"maeMean":1.2850000000000001,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.82,"pitUpper":0.935,"empiricalMass":0.115,"logScore":2.162823150618887},"rollingETAS":{"crps":1.346375,"mean":0.425,"median":0,"bias":-1.575,"maeMean":1.575,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.925,"pitUpper":0.98,"empiricalMass":0.055,"logScore":2.900422093749666},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":1.0576249999999998,"mean":0.665,"median":0,"bias":-1.335,"maeMean":1.335,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.85,"pitUpper":0.935,"empiricalMass":0.085,"logScore":2.4651040224918206},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.9577249999999999,"mean":0.675,"median":0,"bias":-1.325,"maeMean":1.325,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.835,"pitUpper":0.98,"empiricalMass":0.145,"logScore":1.9310215365615626},"recentPoisson":{"crps":1.5826749999999998,"mean":0.235,"median":0,"bias":-1.7650000000000001,"maeMean":1.7650000000000001,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":false,"width":1,"pitLower":0.975,"pitUpper":0.995,"empiricalMass":0.02,"logScore":3.912023005428146},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":1.481475,"mean":0.305,"median":0,"bias":-1.695,"maeMean":1.695,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":false,"width":1,"pitLower":0.985,"pitUpper":0.995,"empiricalMass":0.01,"logScore":4.605170185988091}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.585,"1":0.235,"2":0.115,"3":0.035,"4":0.01,"5":0.015,"6":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.7,"1":0.225,"2":0.055,"3":0.005,"4":0.005,"5":0.005,"6":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.575,"1":0.275,"2":0.085,"3":0.05,"4":0.01,"6":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.51,"1":0.325,"2":0.145,"3":0.02},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.795,"1":0.18,"2":0.02,"3":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.715,"1":0.27,"2":0.01,"3":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1655164800000,"validUntil":1655251200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":2,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5001,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2022","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.7564499999999998,"mean":2.01,"median":1,"bias":2.01,"maeMean":2.01,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":6,"coverage":true,"width":6,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.3,"empiricalMass":0.3,"logScore":1.2039728043259361},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.38992499999999997,"mean":1.065,"median":1,"bias":1.065,"maeMean":1.065,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.445,"empiricalMass":0.445,"logScore":0.8096809968158968},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.7216750000000001,"mean":1.825,"median":1,"bias":1.825,"maeMean":1.825,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":6,"coverage":true,"width":6,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.325,"empiricalMass":0.325,"logScore":1.1239300966523995},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.9342,"mean":1.54,"median":1,"bias":1.54,"maeMean":1.54,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.16,"empiricalMass":0.16,"logScore":1.8325814637483102},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.31115000000000004,"mean":0.77,"median":1,"bias":0.77,"maeMean":0.77,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.475,"empiricalMass":0.475,"logScore":0.7444404749474959},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.26970000000000005,"mean":0.81,"median":0,"bias":0.81,"maeMean":0.81,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.535,"empiricalMass":0.535,"logScore":0.6254885320861304}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.3,"1":0.29,"2":0.165,"3":0.1,"4":0.07,"5":0.01,"6":0.025,"8":0.01,"9":0.01,"15":0.01,"20":0.005,"38":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.445,"1":0.305,"2":0.125,"3":0.08,"4":0.01,"5":0.02,"6":0.005,"8":0.005,"12":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.325,"1":0.28,"2":0.125,"3":0.125,"4":0.055,"5":0.035,"6":0.02,"8":0.005,"9":0.005,"10":0.005,"11":0.005,"13":0.005,"14":0.005,"16":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.16,"1":0.41,"2":0.23,"3":0.14,"4":0.05,"5":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.475,"1":0.345,"2":0.125,"3":0.045,"4":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.535,"1":0.25,"2":0.14,"3":0.04,"4":0.015,"5":0.02}}},{"issuedAt":1655164800000,"validUntil":1655251200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":3,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5001,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2022","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.034924999999999984,"mean":0.285,"median":0,"bias":0.285,"maeMean":0.285,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.82,"empiricalMass":0.82,"logScore":0.19845093872383832},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.009249999999999994,"mean":0.11,"median":0,"bias":0.11,"maeMean":0.11,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.905,"empiricalMass":0.905,"logScore":0.0998203352822109},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.027850000000000014,"mean":0.23,"median":0,"bias":0.23,"maeMean":0.23,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.845,"empiricalMass":0.845,"logScore":0.16841865162496325},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.04025000000000001,"mean":0.22,"median":0,"bias":0.22,"maeMean":0.22,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.8,"empiricalMass":0.8,"logScore":0.2231435513142097},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.005650000000000002,"mean":0.08,"median":0,"bias":0.08,"maeMean":0.08,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.925,"empiricalMass":0.925,"logScore":0.0779615414697118},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.0068000000000000005,"mean":0.1,"median":0,"bias":0.1,"maeMean":0.1,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.92,"empiricalMass":0.92,"logScore":0.08338160893905101}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.82,"1":0.14,"2":0.015,"3":0.015,"5":0.005,"9":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.905,"1":0.08,"2":0.015},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.845,"1":0.095,"2":0.045,"3":0.015},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.8,"1":0.185,"2":0.01,"3":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.925,"1":0.07,"2":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.92,"1":0.06,"2":0.02}}},{"issuedAt":1655164800000,"validUntil":1655251200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5001,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2022","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.000899999999999998,"mean":0.03,"median":0,"bias":0.03,"maeMean":0.03,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.97,"empiricalMass":0.97,"logScore":0.030459207484708574},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.0000999999999999994,"mean":0.01,"median":0,"bias":0.01,"maeMean":0.01,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.99,"empiricalMass":0.99,"logScore":0.01005033585350145},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.0016000000000000042,"mean":0.04,"median":0,"bias":0.04,"maeMean":0.04,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.96,"empiricalMass":0.96,"logScore":0.040821994520255166},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.0002249999999999995,"mean":0.015,"median":0,"bias":0.015,"maeMean":0.015,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.985,"empiricalMass":0.985,"logScore":0.015113637810048184},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.0000999999999999994,"mean":0.01,"median":0,"bias":0.01,"maeMean":0.01,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.99,"empiricalMass":0.99,"logScore":0.01005033585350145},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.00002499999999999985,"mean":0.005,"median":0,"bias":0.005,"maeMean":0.005,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.995,"empiricalMass":0.995,"logScore":0.005012541823544286}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.97,"1":0.03},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.99,"1":0.01},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.96,"1":0.04},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.985,"1":0.015},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.99,"1":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.995,"1":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1655164800000,"validUntil":1655769600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":2,"actual":6,"trainingCount":5001,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2022","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":2.8054500000000004,"mean":11.88,"median":10.5,"bias":5.880000000000001,"maeMean":5.880000000000001,"maeMedian":4.5,"low":4,"high":26,"coverage":true,"width":22,"pitLower":0.17,"pitUpper":0.22,"empiricalMass":0.05,"logScore":2.995732273553991},"rollingETAS":{"crps":1.0988249999999997,"mean":8.385,"median":7,"bias":2.385,"maeMean":2.385,"maeMedian":1,"low":2,"high":19,"coverage":true,"width":17,"pitLower":0.365,"pitUpper":0.44,"empiricalMass":0.075,"logScore":2.5902671654458267},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":2.3201499999999995,"mean":11.22,"median":9.5,"bias":5.220000000000001,"maeMean":5.220000000000001,"maeMedian":3.5,"low":3,"high":28,"coverage":true,"width":25,"pitLower":0.18,"pitUpper":0.265,"empiricalMass":0.085,"logScore":2.4651040224918206},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":3.7516249999999998,"mean":11.615,"median":11,"bias":5.615,"maeMean":5.615,"maeMedian":5,"low":6,"high":17,"coverage":true,"width":11,"pitLower":0.015,"pitUpper":0.065,"empiricalMass":0.05,"logScore":2.995732273553991},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.6303750000000001,"mean":5.715,"median":5.5,"bias":-0.28500000000000014,"maeMean":0.28500000000000014,"maeMedian":0.5,"low":2,"high":10,"coverage":true,"width":8,"pitLower":0.5,"pitUpper":0.62,"empiricalMass":0.12,"logScore":2.120263536200091},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.9295499999999999,"mean":5.64,"median":5,"bias":-0.3600000000000003,"maeMean":0.3600000000000003,"maeMedian":1,"low":1,"high":13,"coverage":true,"width":12,"pitLower":0.555,"pitUpper":0.675,"empiricalMass":0.12,"logScore":2.120263536200091}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.005,"2":0.025,"3":0.015,"4":0.065,"5":0.06,"6":0.05,"7":0.07,"8":0.08,"9":0.05,"10":0.08,"11":0.095,"12":0.035,"13":0.035,"14":0.055,"15":0.08,"16":0.03,"17":0.025,"18":0.025,"19":0.005,"20":0.005,"21":0.02,"22":0.005,"23":0.005,"24":0.005,"25":0.01,"26":0.015,"29":0.01,"30":0.015,"33":0.005,"37":0.01,"38":0.005,"47":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.005,"1":0.015,"2":0.065,"3":0.065,"4":0.125,"5":0.09,"6":0.075,"7":0.115,"8":0.075,"9":0.1,"10":0.06,"11":0.055,"12":0.015,"13":0.03,"14":0.03,"16":0.015,"17":0.01,"19":0.005,"20":0.005,"21":0.005,"22":0.005,"24":0.005,"26":0.01,"34":0.005,"37":0.005,"40":0.005,"78":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"1":0.01,"2":0.03,"3":0.055,"4":0.04,"5":0.045,"6":0.085,"7":0.085,"8":0.07,"9":0.08,"10":0.07,"11":0.05,"12":0.075,"13":0.035,"14":0.035,"15":0.035,"16":0.035,"17":0.025,"18":0.03,"20":0.025,"22":0.015,"23":0.01,"25":0.005,"28":0.005,"29":0.005,"32":0.005,"33":0.01,"34":0.005,"35":0.005,"36":0.005,"37":0.005,"39":0.005,"41":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"4":0.015,"6":0.05,"7":0.04,"8":0.075,"9":0.085,"10":0.155,"11":0.095,"12":0.105,"13":0.105,"14":0.08,"15":0.04,"16":0.075,"17":0.035,"18":0.015,"19":0.02,"21":0.005,"24":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"1":0.025,"2":0.035,"3":0.115,"4":0.18,"5":0.145,"6":0.12,"7":0.155,"8":0.08,"9":0.09,"10":0.035,"11":0.015,"12":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.045,"1":0.065,"2":0.11,"3":0.095,"4":0.13,"5":0.11,"6":0.12,"7":0.065,"8":0.065,"9":0.04,"10":0.045,"11":0.03,"12":0.02,"13":0.02,"14":0.005,"15":0.005,"16":0.01,"17":0.005,"18":0.01,"19":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1655164800000,"validUntil":1655769600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":3,"actual":1,"trainingCount":5001,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2022","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.28717499999999996,"mean":1.405,"median":1,"bias":0.405,"maeMean":0.405,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.34,"pitUpper":0.665,"empiricalMass":0.325,"logScore":1.1239300966523995},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.26105,"mean":1.18,"median":1,"bias":0.17999999999999994,"maeMean":0.17999999999999994,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.395,"pitUpper":0.71,"empiricalMass":0.315,"logScore":1.155182640156504},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.256425,"mean":1.235,"median":1,"bias":0.2350000000000001,"maeMean":0.2350000000000001,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.37,"pitUpper":0.69,"empiricalMass":0.32,"logScore":1.1394342831883648},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.30852499999999994,"mean":1.545,"median":1,"bias":0.5449999999999999,"maeMean":0.5449999999999999,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.215,"pitUpper":0.54,"empiricalMass":0.325,"logScore":1.1239300966523995},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.32395,"mean":0.7,"median":0,"bias":-0.30000000000000004,"maeMean":0.30000000000000004,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.535,"pitUpper":0.81,"empiricalMass":0.275,"logScore":1.2909841813155656},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.30400000000000005,"mean":0.77,"median":0,"bias":-0.22999999999999998,"maeMean":0.22999999999999998,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.515,"pitUpper":0.815,"empiricalMass":0.3,"logScore":1.2039728043259361}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.34,"1":0.325,"2":0.13,"3":0.09,"4":0.055,"5":0.04,"6":0.01,"7":0.01},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.395,"1":0.315,"2":0.165,"3":0.07,"4":0.02,"5":0.01,"6":0.01,"7":0.005,"8":0.005,"12":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.37,"1":0.32,"2":0.19,"3":0.045,"4":0.03,"5":0.01,"6":0.025,"7":0.005,"9":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.215,"1":0.325,"2":0.245,"3":0.15,"4":0.05,"5":0.01,"6":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.535,"1":0.275,"2":0.15,"3":0.035,"4":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.515,"1":0.3,"2":0.125,"3":0.03,"4":0.025,"6":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1655164800000,"validUntil":1655769600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5001,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2022","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.017299999999999982,"mean":0.15,"median":0,"bias":0.15,"maeMean":0.15,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.87,"empiricalMass":0.87,"logScore":0.13926206733350766},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.015075000000000005,"mean":0.155,"median":0,"bias":0.155,"maeMean":0.155,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.88,"empiricalMass":0.88,"logScore":0.12783337150988489},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.013874999999999998,"mean":0.145,"median":0,"bias":0.145,"maeMean":0.145,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.885,"empiricalMass":0.885,"logScore":0.12216763397420753},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.029124999999999984,"mean":0.185,"median":0,"bias":0.185,"maeMean":0.185,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.83,"empiricalMass":0.83,"logScore":0.18632957819149348},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.018250000000000016,"mean":0.14,"median":0,"bias":0.14,"maeMean":0.14,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.865,"empiricalMass":0.865,"logScore":0.14502577205025774},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.011700000000000016,"mean":0.14,"median":0,"bias":0.14,"maeMean":0.14,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.895,"empiricalMass":0.895,"logScore":0.11093156070728166}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.87,"1":0.11,"2":0.02},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.88,"1":0.095,"2":0.02,"4":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.885,"1":0.09,"2":0.02,"3":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.83,"1":0.155,"2":0.015},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.865,"1":0.13,"2":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.895,"1":0.08,"2":0.02,"4":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1655164800000,"validUntil":1657756800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":2,"actual":15,"trainingCount":5001,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2022","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":30.494999999999997,"mean":59.78,"median":54.5,"bias":44.78,"maeMean":44.78,"maeMedian":39.5,"low":29,"high":104,"coverage":false,"width":75,"pitLower":0.005,"pitUpper":0.005,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"rollingETAS":{"crps":10.512825000000001,"mean":31.935,"median":30,"bias":16.935,"maeMean":16.935,"maeMedian":15,"low":16,"high":57,"coverage":false,"width":41,"pitLower":0.03,"pitUpper":0.04,"empiricalMass":0.01,"logScore":4.605170185988091},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":29.140275000000003,"mean":57.545,"median":51,"bias":42.545,"maeMean":42.545,"maeMedian":36,"low":27,"high":107,"coverage":false,"width":80,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":30.44235,"mean":49.78,"median":49,"bias":34.78,"maeMean":34.78,"maeMedian":34,"low":38,"high":63,"coverage":false,"width":25,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentPoisson":{"crps":6.764925000000001,"mean":24.555,"median":24,"bias":9.555,"maeMean":9.555,"maeMedian":9,"low":17,"high":34,"coverage":false,"width":17,"pitLower":0.01,"pitUpper":0.015,"empiricalMass":0.005,"logScore":5.298317366548036},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":5.6240000000000006,"mean":24.25,"median":23,"bias":9.25,"maeMean":9.25,"maeMedian":8,"low":11,"high":38,"coverage":true,"width":27,"pitLower":0.12,"pitUpper":0.135,"empiricalMass":0.015,"logScore":4.199705077879927}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"13":0.005,"18":0.005,"21":0.005,"24":0.02,"27":0.01,"29":0.005,"30":0.02,"31":0.015,"32":0.015,"33":0.015,"34":0.015,"35":0.025,"36":0.01,"37":0.015,"39":0.035,"40":0.02,"41":0.02,"42":0.02,"43":0.025,"44":0.025,"45":0.02,"46":0.01,"47":0.03,"48":0.01,"49":0.02,"50":0.01,"51":0.01,"52":0.015,"53":0.015,"54":0.035,"55":0.025,"56":0.015,"57":0.025,"58":0.02,"59":0.02,"60":0.02,"61":0.005,"62":0.015,"63":0.015,"64":0.035,"65":0.01,"67":0.02,"68":0.015,"69":0.005,"70":0.005,"71":0.02,"72":0.005,"73":0.015,"74":0.005,"75":0.01,"76":0.005,"78":0.005,"79":0.01,"80":0.005,"81":0.005,"82":0.01,"83":0.01,"85":0.015,"86":0.01,"87":0.005,"88":0.01,"89":0.005,"90":0.005,"91":0.01,"92":0.005,"93":0.01,"96":0.005,"99":0.005,"102":0.005,"104":0.005,"109":0.005,"122":0.005,"124":0.005,"125":0.005,"133":0.005,"144":0.005,"152":0.005,"156":0.005,"185":0.005,"273":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"10":0.005,"12":0.005,"13":0.005,"14":0.015,"15":0.01,"16":0.02,"17":0.01,"18":0.01,"19":0.025,"20":0.035,"21":0.035,"22":0.04,"23":0.03,"24":0.05,"25":0.045,"26":0.035,"27":0.05,"28":0.03,"29":0.035,"30":0.025,"31":0.055,"32":0.045,"33":0.035,"34":0.03,"35":0.02,"36":0.03,"37":0.015,"38":0.035,"40":0.005,"41":0.025,"42":0.005,"43":0.02,"44":0.025,"45":0.02,"46":0.01,"48":0.015,"49":0.01,"50":0.005,"51":0.005,"52":0.01,"54":0.005,"55":0.005,"57":0.01,"58":0.005,"61":0.01,"62":0.005,"63":0.01,"64":0.005,"80":0.005,"82":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"17":0.005,"18":0.005,"19":0.005,"21":0.01,"23":0.005,"24":0.005,"25":0.01,"27":0.005,"28":0.01,"29":0.015,"30":0.01,"31":0.01,"32":0.02,"33":0.025,"34":0.015,"35":0.005,"36":0.01,"37":0.02,"38":0.01,"39":0.015,"40":0.035,"41":0.035,"42":0.025,"43":0.025,"44":0.015,"45":0.02,"46":0.01,"47":0.025,"48":0.015,"49":0.02,"50":0.015,"51":0.055,"52":0.015,"53":0.01,"54":0.015,"55":0.015,"56":0.015,"57":0.04,"58":0.015,"59":0.025,"61":0.015,"62":0.015,"63":0.01,"64":0.005,"65":0.015,"66":0.01,"67":0.01,"68":0.01,"69":0.005,"70":0.01,"71":0.005,"72":0.005,"73":0.01,"75":0.01,"77":0.005,"78":0.01,"79":0.01,"80":0.01,"82":0.01,"83":0.005,"84":0.005,"85":0.01,"88":0.005,"89":0.01,"90":0.01,"92":0.005,"94":0.005,"95":0.005,"97":0.005,"98":0.02,"99":0.005,"100":0.005,"105":0.005,"107":0.015,"109":0.01,"111":0.005,"115":0.005,"120":0.005,"130":0.005,"131":0.005,"141":0.005,"154":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"33":0.005,"34":0.005,"35":0.015,"36":0.01,"37":0.01,"38":0.03,"39":0.015,"40":0.025,"41":0.035,"42":0.04,"43":0.035,"44":0.015,"45":0.04,"46":0.085,"47":0.045,"48":0.055,"49":0.045,"50":0.05,"51":0.04,"52":0.025,"53":0.035,"54":0.06,"55":0.025,"56":0.07,"57":0.025,"58":0.03,"59":0.025,"60":0.025,"61":0.015,"62":0.01,"63":0.015,"64":0.01,"66":0.015,"67":0.005,"69":0.005,"71":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"13":0.005,"14":0.005,"15":0.005,"16":0.01,"17":0.025,"18":0.06,"19":0.06,"20":0.05,"21":0.06,"22":0.085,"23":0.075,"24":0.085,"25":0.055,"26":0.12,"27":0.075,"28":0.065,"29":0.03,"30":0.02,"31":0.03,"32":0.015,"33":0.01,"34":0.01,"35":0.005,"36":0.01,"37":0.005,"38":0.005,"39":0.01,"40":0.005,"51":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"1":0.005,"5":0.005,"6":0.005,"8":0.005,"9":0.005,"10":0.01,"11":0.02,"12":0.005,"13":0.02,"14":0.04,"15":0.015,"16":0.03,"17":0.025,"18":0.03,"19":0.05,"20":0.04,"21":0.09,"22":0.07,"23":0.04,"24":0.035,"25":0.02,"26":0.055,"27":0.035,"28":0.03,"29":0.03,"30":0.06,"31":0.045,"32":0.015,"33":0.035,"34":0.035,"35":0.02,"36":0.005,"37":0.015,"38":0.01,"39":0.01,"40":0.02,"41":0.005,"42":0.005,"54":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1655164800000,"validUntil":1657756800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":3,"actual":1,"trainingCount":5001,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2022","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":3.7797249999999996,"mean":7.305,"median":6,"bias":6.305,"maeMean":6.305,"maeMedian":5,"low":2,"high":16,"coverage":false,"width":14,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.04,"empiricalMass":0.04,"logScore":3.2188758248682006},"rollingETAS":{"crps":1.6206749999999999,"mean":4.115,"median":4,"bias":3.115,"maeMean":3.115,"maeMedian":3,"low":1,"high":10,"coverage":true,"width":9,"pitLower":0.04,"pitUpper":0.18,"empiricalMass":0.14,"logScore":1.9661128563728327},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":3.4283249999999996,"mean":6.685,"median":6,"bias":5.685,"maeMean":5.685,"maeMedian":5,"low":1,"high":15,"coverage":true,"width":14,"pitLower":0.02,"pitUpper":0.065,"empiricalMass":0.045,"logScore":3.101092789211817},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":3.801025,"mean":6.215,"median":6,"bias":5.215,"maeMean":5.215,"maeMedian":5,"low":2,"high":10,"coverage":false,"width":8,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentPoisson":{"crps":1.248425,"mean":3.195,"median":3,"bias":2.195,"maeMean":2.195,"maeMedian":2,"low":1,"high":7,"coverage":true,"width":6,"pitLower":0.03,"pitUpper":0.19,"empiricalMass":0.16,"logScore":1.8325814637483102},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.9754499999999999,"mean":2.87,"median":3,"bias":1.87,"maeMean":1.87,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":6,"coverage":true,"width":6,"pitLower":0.06,"pitUpper":0.265,"empiricalMass":0.205,"logScore":1.584745299843729}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"1":0.04,"2":0.055,"3":0.115,"4":0.11,"5":0.1,"6":0.115,"7":0.07,"8":0.08,"9":0.09,"10":0.04,"11":0.04,"12":0.045,"13":0.01,"14":0.005,"15":0.005,"16":0.035,"17":0.005,"18":0.01,"19":0.01,"20":0.005,"28":0.005,"31":0.005,"35":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.04,"1":0.14,"2":0.17,"3":0.135,"4":0.165,"5":0.08,"6":0.09,"7":0.055,"8":0.025,"9":0.045,"10":0.015,"11":0.015,"12":0.01,"13":0.01,"15":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.02,"1":0.045,"2":0.075,"3":0.075,"4":0.155,"5":0.09,"6":0.1,"7":0.1,"8":0.055,"9":0.06,"10":0.06,"11":0.035,"12":0.015,"13":0.045,"14":0.015,"15":0.02,"16":0.01,"18":0.005,"19":0.01,"20":0.005,"23":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"2":0.06,"3":0.1,"4":0.09,"5":0.165,"6":0.155,"7":0.16,"8":0.085,"9":0.08,"10":0.055,"11":0.015,"12":0.02,"13":0.005,"14":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.03,"1":0.16,"2":0.18,"3":0.275,"4":0.13,"5":0.11,"6":0.05,"7":0.045,"8":0.015,"9":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.06,"1":0.205,"2":0.205,"3":0.21,"4":0.12,"5":0.125,"6":0.025,"7":0.04,"9":0.01}}},{"issuedAt":1655164800000,"validUntil":1657756800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5001,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2022","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.3536,"mean":0.92,"median":1,"bias":0.92,"maeMean":0.92,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.455,"empiricalMass":0.455,"logScore":0.7874578600311866},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.14132499999999998,"mean":0.495,"median":0,"bias":0.495,"maeMean":0.495,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.635,"empiricalMass":0.635,"logScore":0.4541302800894454},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.28670000000000007,"mean":0.81,"median":0,"bias":0.81,"maeMean":0.81,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.515,"empiricalMass":0.515,"logScore":0.6635883783184009},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.32370000000000004,"mean":0.79,"median":1,"bias":0.79,"maeMean":0.79,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.465,"empiricalMass":0.465,"logScore":0.7657178733947807},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.11807499999999999,"mean":0.425,"median":0,"bias":0.425,"maeMean":0.425,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.665,"empiricalMass":0.665,"logScore":0.4079682383262829},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.11267500000000003,"mean":0.435,"median":0,"bias":0.435,"maeMean":0.435,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.675,"empiricalMass":0.675,"logScore":0.3930425881096072}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.455,"1":0.325,"2":0.14,"3":0.045,"4":0.015,"5":0.01,"6":0.005,"8":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.635,"1":0.28,"2":0.06,"3":0.01,"4":0.01,"5":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.515,"1":0.27,"2":0.15,"3":0.035,"4":0.02,"5":0.005,"6":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.465,"1":0.35,"2":0.13,"3":0.04,"4":0.015},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.665,"1":0.26,"2":0.06,"3":0.015},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.675,"1":0.245,"2":0.055,"3":0.02,"4":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1657756800000,"validUntil":1657843200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":2,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5016,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2022","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.44932499999999986,"mean":1.275,"median":1,"bias":1.275,"maeMean":1.275,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.435,"empiricalMass":0.435,"logScore":0.8324092478934529},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.353425,"mean":0.875,"median":1,"bias":0.875,"maeMean":0.875,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.445,"empiricalMass":0.445,"logScore":0.8096809968158968},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.3685999999999999,"mean":1.14,"median":1,"bias":1.14,"maeMean":1.14,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.485,"empiricalMass":0.485,"logScore":0.7236063880446539},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.8943999999999999,"mean":1.63,"median":1,"bias":1.63,"maeMean":1.63,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.235,"empiricalMass":0.235,"logScore":1.448169764837978},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.27414999999999995,"mean":0.71,"median":0.5,"bias":0.71,"maeMean":0.71,"maeMedian":0.5,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.5,"empiricalMass":0.5,"logScore":0.6931471805599453},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.22712500000000002,"mean":0.745,"median":0,"bias":0.745,"maeMean":0.745,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.565,"empiricalMass":0.565,"logScore":0.5709295478356962}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.435,"1":0.265,"2":0.14,"3":0.065,"4":0.035,"5":0.03,"6":0.01,"7":0.005,"9":0.005,"10":0.005,"11":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.445,"1":0.355,"2":0.135,"3":0.035,"4":0.015,"5":0.01,"7":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.485,"1":0.25,"2":0.11,"3":0.075,"4":0.04,"5":0.02,"7":0.01,"9":0.005,"14":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.235,"1":0.27,"2":0.265,"3":0.13,"4":0.065,"5":0.03,"6":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.5,"1":0.355,"2":0.09,"3":0.045,"4":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.565,"1":0.26,"2":0.1,"3":0.04,"4":0.015,"5":0.015,"6":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1657756800000,"validUntil":1657843200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":3,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5016,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2022","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.01755000000000001,"mean":0.16,"median":0,"bias":0.16,"maeMean":0.16,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.87,"empiricalMass":0.87,"logScore":0.13926206733350766},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.00872500000000001,"mean":0.115,"median":0,"bias":0.115,"maeMean":0.115,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.91,"empiricalMass":0.91,"logScore":0.09431067947124129},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.015325000000000005,"mean":0.155,"median":0,"bias":0.155,"maeMean":0.155,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.88,"empiricalMass":0.88,"logScore":0.12783337150988489},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.04450000000000001,"mean":0.23,"median":0,"bias":0.23,"maeMean":0.23,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.79,"empiricalMass":0.79,"logScore":0.23572233352106983},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.012325000000000003,"mean":0.125,"median":0,"bias":0.125,"maeMean":0.125,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.89,"empiricalMass":0.89,"logScore":0.11653381625595151},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.007225000000000009,"mean":0.085,"median":0,"bias":0.085,"maeMean":0.085,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.915,"empiricalMass":0.915,"logScore":0.0888312137066157}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.87,"1":0.105,"2":0.02,"3":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.91,"1":0.065,"2":0.025},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.88,"1":0.09,"2":0.025,"3":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.79,"1":0.19,"2":0.02},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.89,"1":0.095,"2":0.015},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.915,"1":0.085}}},{"issuedAt":1657756800000,"validUntil":1657843200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5016,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2022","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.00032500000000000237,"mean":0.025,"median":0,"bias":0.025,"maeMean":0.025,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.985,"empiricalMass":0.985,"logScore":0.015113637810048184},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0,"mean":0,"median":0,"bias":0,"maeMean":0,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":1,"empiricalMass":1,"logScore":0},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.0006499999999999978,"mean":0.03,"median":0,"bias":0.03,"maeMean":0.03,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.975,"empiricalMass":0.975,"logScore":0.025317807984289897},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.00040000000000000105,"mean":0.02,"median":0,"bias":0.02,"maeMean":0.02,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.98,"empiricalMass":0.98,"logScore":0.020202707317519466},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.0002249999999999995,"mean":0.015,"median":0,"bias":0.015,"maeMean":0.015,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.985,"empiricalMass":0.985,"logScore":0.015113637810048184},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0,"mean":0,"median":0,"bias":0,"maeMean":0,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":1,"empiricalMass":1,"logScore":0}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.985,"1":0.005,"2":0.01},"rollingETAS":{"0":1},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.975,"1":0.02,"2":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.98,"1":0.02},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.985,"1":0.015},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":1}}},{"issuedAt":1657756800000,"validUntil":1658361600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":2,"actual":6,"trainingCount":5016,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2022","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":1.8404499999999997,"mean":11.15,"median":8,"bias":5.15,"maeMean":5.15,"maeMedian":2,"low":2,"high":29,"coverage":true,"width":27,"pitLower":0.275,"pitUpper":0.38,"empiricalMass":0.105,"logScore":2.2537949288246137},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.777425,"mean":6.745,"median":6,"bias":0.7450000000000001,"maeMean":0.7450000000000001,"maeMedian":0,"low":1,"high":14,"coverage":true,"width":13,"pitLower":0.485,"pitUpper":0.625,"empiricalMass":0.14,"logScore":1.9661128563728327},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":1.718575,"mean":10.385,"median":8,"bias":4.385,"maeMean":4.385,"maeMedian":2,"low":2,"high":27,"coverage":true,"width":25,"pitLower":0.235,"pitUpper":0.325,"empiricalMass":0.09,"logScore":2.4079456086518722},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":3.422975,"mean":11.185,"median":11,"bias":5.1850000000000005,"maeMean":5.1850000000000005,"maeMedian":5,"low":6,"high":16,"coverage":true,"width":10,"pitLower":0.035,"pitUpper":0.07,"empiricalMass":0.035,"logScore":3.3524072174927233},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.65455,"mean":5.31,"median":5,"bias":-0.6900000000000004,"maeMean":0.6900000000000004,"maeMedian":1,"low":2,"high":9,"coverage":true,"width":7,"pitLower":0.575,"pitUpper":0.715,"empiricalMass":0.14,"logScore":1.9661128563728327},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":1.1815250000000002,"mean":5.415,"median":5,"bias":-0.585,"maeMean":0.585,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":13,"coverage":true,"width":13,"pitLower":0.58,"pitUpper":0.66,"empiricalMass":0.08,"logScore":2.5257286443082556}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.005,"1":0.02,"2":0.045,"3":0.04,"4":0.08,"5":0.085,"6":0.105,"7":0.075,"8":0.05,"9":0.08,"10":0.06,"11":0.035,"12":0.015,"13":0.08,"14":0.025,"15":0.005,"16":0.015,"17":0.02,"18":0.035,"19":0.01,"20":0.01,"21":0.005,"22":0.02,"24":0.005,"25":0.015,"26":0.005,"29":0.005,"31":0.01,"34":0.01,"36":0.005,"48":0.005,"52":0.005,"59":0.005,"66":0.005,"80":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.02,"1":0.035,"2":0.08,"3":0.115,"4":0.11,"5":0.125,"6":0.14,"7":0.085,"8":0.1,"9":0.05,"10":0.015,"11":0.035,"12":0.02,"13":0.015,"14":0.01,"15":0.005,"16":0.005,"18":0.005,"22":0.005,"24":0.005,"35":0.005,"36":0.005,"37":0.005,"66":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.01,"1":0.02,"2":0.045,"3":0.04,"4":0.04,"5":0.08,"6":0.09,"7":0.1,"8":0.11,"9":0.09,"10":0.045,"11":0.06,"12":0.025,"13":0.02,"14":0.03,"15":0.015,"16":0.035,"17":0.015,"18":0.01,"19":0.02,"20":0.005,"21":0.015,"23":0.01,"24":0.01,"27":0.01,"29":0.015,"32":0.005,"33":0.005,"34":0.005,"40":0.005,"44":0.01,"50":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"3":0.005,"4":0.01,"5":0.02,"6":0.035,"7":0.07,"8":0.08,"9":0.12,"10":0.095,"11":0.11,"12":0.09,"13":0.1,"14":0.085,"15":0.09,"16":0.045,"17":0.02,"18":0.015,"19":0.005,"21":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"1":0.035,"2":0.045,"3":0.125,"4":0.195,"5":0.175,"6":0.14,"7":0.125,"8":0.09,"9":0.025,"10":0.025,"11":0.015,"16":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.085,"1":0.105,"2":0.12,"3":0.1,"4":0.085,"5":0.085,"6":0.08,"7":0.065,"8":0.065,"9":0.065,"10":0.025,"11":0.025,"12":0.015,"13":0.03,"14":0.01,"15":0.01,"16":0.01,"17":0.005,"20":0.005,"23":0.005,"24":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1657756800000,"validUntil":1658361600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":3,"actual":1,"trainingCount":5016,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2022","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.33525000000000005,"mean":1.37,"median":1,"bias":0.3700000000000001,"maeMean":0.3700000000000001,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.44,"pitUpper":0.71,"empiricalMass":0.27,"logScore":1.3093333199837622},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.3488,"mean":0.88,"median":0,"bias":-0.12,"maeMean":0.12,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.55,"pitUpper":0.815,"empiricalMass":0.265,"logScore":1.3280254529959148},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.3187000000000001,"mean":1.33,"median":1,"bias":0.33000000000000007,"maeMean":0.33000000000000007,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.385,"pitUpper":0.645,"empiricalMass":0.26,"logScore":1.3470736479666092},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.29742499999999994,"mean":1.495,"median":1,"bias":0.4950000000000001,"maeMean":0.4950000000000001,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.24,"pitUpper":0.565,"empiricalMass":0.325,"logScore":1.1239300966523995},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.26852500000000007,"mean":0.695,"median":1,"bias":-0.30500000000000005,"maeMean":0.30500000000000005,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.495,"pitUpper":0.85,"empiricalMass":0.355,"logScore":1.0356374895067213},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.39877499999999994,"mean":0.595,"median":0,"bias":-0.405,"maeMean":0.405,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.615,"pitUpper":0.865,"empiricalMass":0.25,"logScore":1.3862943611198906}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.44,"1":0.27,"2":0.11,"3":0.06,"4":0.045,"5":0.025,"6":0.01,"7":0.01,"8":0.025,"13":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.55,"1":0.265,"2":0.095,"3":0.04,"4":0.025,"5":0.005,"6":0.01,"9":0.005,"15":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.385,"1":0.26,"2":0.175,"3":0.09,"4":0.035,"5":0.025,"6":0.025,"7":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.24,"1":0.325,"2":0.225,"3":0.13,"4":0.07,"5":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.495,"1":0.355,"2":0.12,"3":0.02,"4":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.615,"1":0.25,"2":0.09,"3":0.03,"4":0.01,"7":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1657756800000,"validUntil":1658361600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5016,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2022","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.02007500000000001,"mean":0.195,"median":0,"bias":0.195,"maeMean":0.195,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.865,"empiricalMass":0.865,"logScore":0.14502577205025774},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.0074749999999999955,"mean":0.105,"median":0,"bias":0.105,"maeMean":0.105,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.915,"empiricalMass":0.915,"logScore":0.0888312137066157},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.014124999999999999,"mean":0.145,"median":0,"bias":0.145,"maeMean":0.145,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.885,"empiricalMass":0.885,"logScore":0.12216763397420753},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.032800000000000024,"mean":0.2,"median":0,"bias":0.2,"maeMean":0.2,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.82,"empiricalMass":0.82,"logScore":0.19845093872383832},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.006400000000000003,"mean":0.08,"median":0,"bias":0.08,"maeMean":0.08,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.92,"empiricalMass":0.92,"logScore":0.08338160893905101},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.00872500000000001,"mean":0.115,"median":0,"bias":0.115,"maeMean":0.115,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.91,"empiricalMass":0.91,"logScore":0.09431067947124129}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.865,"1":0.095,"2":0.025,"3":0.01,"4":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.915,"1":0.07,"2":0.01,"3":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.885,"1":0.085,"2":0.03},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.82,"1":0.16,"2":0.02},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.92,"1":0.08},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.91,"1":0.065,"2":0.025}}},{"issuedAt":1657756800000,"validUntil":1660348800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":2,"actual":40,"trainingCount":5016,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2022","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":5.129049999999999,"mean":49.63,"median":45,"bias":9.630000000000003,"maeMean":9.630000000000003,"maeMedian":5,"low":22,"high":87,"coverage":true,"width":65,"pitLower":0.37,"pitUpper":0.385,"empiricalMass":0.015,"logScore":4.199705077879927},"rollingETAS":{"crps":8.456125,"mean":29.435,"median":26,"bias":-10.565000000000001,"maeMean":10.565000000000001,"maeMedian":14,"low":16,"high":55,"coverage":true,"width":39,"pitLower":0.85,"pitUpper":0.855,"empiricalMass":0.005,"logScore":5.298317366548036},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":6.7667,"mean":55.44,"median":47,"bias":15.439999999999998,"maeMean":15.439999999999998,"maeMedian":7,"low":23,"high":121,"coverage":true,"width":98,"pitLower":0.375,"pitUpper":0.385,"empiricalMass":0.01,"logScore":4.605170185988091},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":5.254674999999999,"mean":48.705,"median":48,"bias":8.704999999999998,"maeMean":8.704999999999998,"maeMedian":8,"low":39,"high":63,"coverage":true,"width":24,"pitLower":0.065,"pitUpper":0.115,"empiricalMass":0.05,"logScore":2.995732273553991},"recentPoisson":{"crps":14.551974999999999,"mean":22.785,"median":22.5,"bias":-17.215,"maeMean":17.215,"maeMedian":17.5,"low":15,"high":31,"coverage":false,"width":16,"pitLower":1,"pitUpper":1,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":13.092174999999997,"mean":22.235,"median":22,"bias":-17.765,"maeMean":17.765,"maeMedian":18,"low":9,"high":37,"coverage":false,"width":28,"pitLower":0.96,"pitUpper":0.965,"empiricalMass":0.005,"logScore":5.298317366548036}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"14":0.005,"16":0.01,"18":0.005,"20":0.01,"21":0.01,"22":0.01,"23":0.01,"24":0.01,"25":0.025,"26":0.025,"27":0.01,"28":0.015,"29":0.02,"30":0.015,"31":0.025,"32":0.015,"33":0.025,"34":0.02,"35":0.015,"36":0.025,"37":0.035,"38":0.015,"39":0.015,"40":0.015,"41":0.03,"42":0.045,"43":0.02,"44":0.015,"45":0.02,"46":0.03,"47":0.005,"48":0.03,"49":0.005,"50":0.03,"51":0.025,"52":0.01,"53":0.015,"54":0.015,"55":0.005,"56":0.005,"57":0.02,"58":0.01,"59":0.015,"60":0.015,"61":0.005,"62":0.01,"63":0.015,"64":0.025,"65":0.015,"67":0.005,"68":0.01,"70":0.005,"71":0.01,"72":0.01,"73":0.01,"74":0.005,"76":0.025,"77":0.005,"78":0.005,"81":0.005,"82":0.01,"83":0.005,"84":0.005,"85":0.01,"87":0.005,"92":0.005,"96":0.005,"105":0.005,"106":0.005,"108":0.005,"116":0.01,"129":0.005,"142":0.005,"154":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"13":0.005,"14":0.02,"15":0.015,"16":0.02,"17":0.04,"18":0.03,"19":0.025,"20":0.02,"21":0.04,"22":0.04,"23":0.06,"24":0.07,"25":0.07,"26":0.07,"27":0.05,"28":0.03,"29":0.045,"30":0.04,"31":0.045,"32":0.015,"33":0.01,"34":0.03,"35":0.02,"36":0.02,"37":0.005,"38":0.01,"39":0.005,"40":0.005,"41":0.005,"42":0.01,"43":0.02,"44":0.005,"45":0.01,"46":0.01,"47":0.005,"48":0.005,"51":0.015,"54":0.005,"55":0.005,"56":0.01,"57":0.01,"58":0.005,"65":0.005,"71":0.005,"83":0.005,"87":0.005,"90":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"14":0.01,"17":0.01,"21":0.015,"22":0.01,"23":0.01,"24":0.005,"25":0.02,"26":0.01,"27":0.02,"28":0.04,"29":0.015,"30":0.035,"31":0.01,"32":0.005,"33":0.04,"34":0.02,"35":0.02,"36":0.015,"37":0.02,"38":0.025,"39":0.02,"40":0.01,"41":0.035,"42":0.025,"43":0.005,"44":0.01,"45":0.015,"46":0.01,"47":0.025,"48":0.01,"49":0.025,"50":0.015,"51":0.01,"52":0.01,"53":0.02,"54":0.005,"55":0.005,"56":0.015,"57":0.025,"58":0.02,"59":0.015,"60":0.02,"62":0.02,"63":0.01,"64":0.015,"65":0.01,"66":0.01,"67":0.01,"68":0.005,"70":0.005,"71":0.01,"73":0.01,"74":0.01,"76":0.005,"77":0.01,"78":0.005,"82":0.01,"84":0.005,"87":0.005,"90":0.005,"93":0.005,"94":0.005,"95":0.01,"98":0.005,"101":0.005,"102":0.005,"103":0.005,"107":0.005,"108":0.01,"111":0.005,"118":0.015,"120":0.005,"121":0.005,"123":0.005,"125":0.005,"130":0.005,"134":0.005,"140":0.005,"146":0.005,"150":0.005,"162":0.005,"169":0.005,"184":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"30":0.005,"32":0.005,"33":0.005,"36":0.01,"37":0.005,"38":0.015,"39":0.02,"40":0.05,"41":0.025,"42":0.045,"43":0.045,"44":0.065,"45":0.04,"46":0.035,"47":0.08,"48":0.055,"49":0.075,"50":0.075,"51":0.075,"52":0.045,"53":0.025,"54":0.02,"55":0.03,"56":0.02,"57":0.01,"58":0.015,"59":0.01,"60":0.01,"61":0.02,"62":0.01,"63":0.02,"64":0.01,"65":0.005,"67":0.01,"68":0.005,"69":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"12":0.01,"13":0.02,"14":0.015,"15":0.015,"16":0.025,"17":0.045,"18":0.055,"19":0.06,"20":0.05,"21":0.115,"22":0.09,"23":0.075,"24":0.08,"25":0.055,"26":0.06,"27":0.075,"28":0.06,"29":0.02,"30":0.015,"31":0.02,"32":0.01,"33":0.015,"34":0.005,"36":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"4":0.005,"6":0.005,"7":0.015,"8":0.005,"9":0.025,"10":0.015,"11":0.045,"12":0.025,"13":0.035,"14":0.03,"15":0.03,"16":0.06,"17":0.045,"18":0.035,"19":0.045,"20":0.04,"21":0.01,"22":0.07,"23":0.025,"24":0.055,"25":0.03,"26":0.025,"27":0.06,"28":0.025,"29":0.03,"30":0.05,"31":0.03,"32":0.005,"33":0.02,"34":0.015,"35":0.025,"36":0.005,"37":0.01,"38":0.005,"39":0.005,"40":0.005,"42":0.015,"43":0.005,"44":0.005,"45":0.005,"48":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1657756800000,"validUntil":1660348800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":3,"actual":7,"trainingCount":5016,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2022","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":1.2649999999999997,"mean":5.91,"median":5,"bias":-1.0899999999999999,"maeMean":1.0899999999999999,"maeMedian":2,"low":1,"high":13,"coverage":true,"width":12,"pitLower":0.625,"pitUpper":0.695,"empiricalMass":0.07,"logScore":2.659260036932778},"rollingETAS":{"crps":2.16845,"mean":4.01,"median":3,"bias":-2.99,"maeMean":2.99,"maeMedian":4,"low":1,"high":10,"coverage":true,"width":9,"pitLower":0.83,"pitUpper":0.875,"empiricalMass":0.045,"logScore":3.101092789211817},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":1.22045,"mean":6.86,"median":6,"bias":-0.13999999999999968,"maeMean":0.13999999999999968,"maeMedian":1,"low":1,"high":19,"coverage":true,"width":18,"pitLower":0.575,"pitUpper":0.655,"empiricalMass":0.08,"logScore":2.5257286443082556},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.6897750000000002,"mean":6.245,"median":6,"bias":-0.7549999999999999,"maeMean":0.7549999999999999,"maeMedian":1,"low":2,"high":11,"coverage":true,"width":9,"pitLower":0.555,"pitUpper":0.72,"empiricalMass":0.165,"logScore":1.8018098050815563},"recentPoisson":{"crps":3.445425,"mean":2.695,"median":2,"bias":-4.305,"maeMean":4.305,"maeMedian":5,"low":1,"high":5,"coverage":false,"width":4,"pitLower":0.98,"pitUpper":0.995,"empiricalMass":0.015,"logScore":4.199705077879927},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":3.221075,"mean":2.835,"median":3,"bias":-4.165,"maeMean":4.165,"maeMedian":4,"low":0,"high":6,"coverage":false,"width":6,"pitLower":0.96,"pitUpper":0.97,"empiricalMass":0.01,"logScore":4.605170185988091}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.02,"1":0.075,"2":0.12,"3":0.125,"4":0.12,"5":0.085,"6":0.08,"7":0.07,"8":0.085,"9":0.065,"10":0.055,"11":0.015,"12":0.015,"13":0.02,"14":0.02,"15":0.005,"18":0.005,"20":0.005,"21":0.005,"27":0.005,"28":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.035,"1":0.18,"2":0.16,"3":0.16,"4":0.125,"5":0.075,"6":0.095,"7":0.045,"8":0.045,"9":0.025,"10":0.01,"11":0.005,"12":0.02,"13":0.005,"14":0.005,"15":0.005,"16":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.02,"1":0.07,"2":0.11,"3":0.085,"4":0.12,"5":0.085,"6":0.085,"7":0.08,"8":0.08,"9":0.04,"10":0.05,"11":0.02,"12":0.015,"13":0.04,"14":0.015,"15":0.01,"16":0.005,"18":0.005,"19":0.015,"20":0.015,"21":0.01,"22":0.005,"23":0.01,"25":0.005,"26":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"1":0.025,"2":0.035,"3":0.075,"4":0.11,"5":0.17,"6":0.14,"7":0.165,"8":0.1,"9":0.07,"10":0.055,"11":0.03,"12":0.005,"13":0.01,"14":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.04,"1":0.205,"2":0.28,"3":0.18,"4":0.16,"5":0.085,"6":0.03,"7":0.015,"8":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.095,"1":0.18,"2":0.195,"3":0.2,"4":0.165,"5":0.085,"6":0.04,"7":0.01,"8":0.01,"9":0.01,"10":0.01}}},{"issuedAt":1657756800000,"validUntil":1660348800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":4,"actual":1,"trainingCount":5016,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2022","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.38865000000000005,"mean":0.58,"median":0,"bias":-0.42000000000000004,"maeMean":0.42000000000000004,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.605,"pitUpper":0.855,"empiricalMass":0.25,"logScore":1.3862943611198906},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.50435,"mean":0.46,"median":0,"bias":-0.54,"maeMean":0.54,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.7,"pitUpper":0.885,"empiricalMass":0.185,"logScore":1.6873994539038122},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.33072500000000005,"mean":0.915,"median":0,"bias":-0.08499999999999996,"maeMean":0.08499999999999996,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.51,"pitUpper":0.76,"empiricalMass":0.25,"logScore":1.3862943611198906},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.22294999999999998,"mean":0.74,"median":1,"bias":-0.26,"maeMean":0.26,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.445,"pitUpper":0.845,"empiricalMass":0.4,"logScore":0.916290731874155},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.484275,"mean":0.345,"median":0,"bias":-0.655,"maeMean":0.655,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0.695,"pitUpper":0.965,"empiricalMass":0.27,"logScore":1.3093333199837622},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.5234000000000001,"mean":0.36,"median":0,"bias":-0.64,"maeMean":0.64,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.72,"pitUpper":0.93,"empiricalMass":0.21,"logScore":1.5606477482646683}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.605,"1":0.25,"2":0.105,"3":0.04},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.7,"1":0.185,"2":0.085,"3":0.015,"4":0.015},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.51,"1":0.25,"2":0.14,"3":0.055,"4":0.015,"5":0.02,"6":0.01},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.445,"1":0.4,"2":0.125,"3":0.03},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.695,"1":0.27,"2":0.03,"3":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.72,"1":0.21,"2":0.06,"3":0.01}}},{"issuedAt":1660348800000,"validUntil":1660435200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":2,"actual":2,"trainingCount":5056,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2022","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.546375,"mean":1.495,"median":1,"bias":-0.5049999999999999,"maeMean":0.5049999999999999,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.62,"pitUpper":0.805,"empiricalMass":0.185,"logScore":1.6873994539038122},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.7591499999999999,"mean":1.04,"median":1,"bias":-0.96,"maeMean":0.96,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.75,"pitUpper":0.905,"empiricalMass":0.155,"logScore":1.8643301620628905},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.5116250000000001,"mean":1.725,"median":1,"bias":-0.2749999999999999,"maeMean":0.2749999999999999,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.58,"pitUpper":0.745,"empiricalMass":0.165,"logScore":1.8018098050815563},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.3943749999999999,"mean":1.515,"median":1,"bias":-0.4850000000000001,"maeMean":0.4850000000000001,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.555,"pitUpper":0.8,"empiricalMass":0.245,"logScore":1.40649706843741},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.8321500000000001,"mean":0.86,"median":1,"bias":-1.1400000000000001,"maeMean":1.1400000000000001,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.82,"pitUpper":0.94,"empiricalMass":0.12,"logScore":2.120263536200091},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.8752749999999999,"mean":0.925,"median":0,"bias":-1.075,"maeMean":1.075,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.755,"pitUpper":0.88,"empiricalMass":0.125,"logScore":2.0794415416798357}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.33,"1":0.29,"2":0.185,"3":0.1,"4":0.035,"5":0.02,"6":0.02,"7":0.005,"8":0.005,"10":0.01},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.43,"1":0.32,"2":0.155,"3":0.05,"4":0.025,"5":0.015,"17":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.29,"1":0.29,"2":0.165,"3":0.125,"4":0.06,"5":0.025,"6":0.01,"7":0.01,"8":0.01,"9":0.005,"11":0.01},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.205,"1":0.35,"2":0.245,"3":0.135,"4":0.055,"5":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.395,"1":0.425,"2":0.12,"3":0.05,"4":0.005,"5":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.535,"1":0.22,"2":0.125,"3":0.065,"4":0.015,"5":0.04}}},{"issuedAt":1660348800000,"validUntil":1660435200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":3,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5056,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2022","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.018850000000000006,"mean":0.16,"median":0,"bias":0.16,"maeMean":0.16,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.865,"empiricalMass":0.865,"logScore":0.14502577205025774},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.0092,"mean":0.12,"median":0,"bias":0.12,"maeMean":0.12,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.905,"empiricalMass":0.905,"logScore":0.0998203352822109},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.03695000000000001,"mean":0.25,"median":0,"bias":0.25,"maeMean":0.25,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.815,"empiricalMass":0.815,"logScore":0.2045671657412744},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.044325,"mean":0.225,"median":0,"bias":0.225,"maeMean":0.225,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.79,"empiricalMass":0.79,"logScore":0.23572233352106983},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.011050000000000004,"mean":0.11,"median":0,"bias":0.11,"maeMean":0.11,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.895,"empiricalMass":0.895,"logScore":0.11093156070728166},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.010399999999999993,"mean":0.12,"median":0,"bias":0.12,"maeMean":0.12,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.9,"empiricalMass":0.9,"logScore":0.10536051565782628}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.865,"1":0.11,"2":0.025},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.905,"1":0.085,"2":0.005,"5":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.815,"1":0.135,"2":0.035,"3":0.015},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.79,"1":0.195,"2":0.015},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.895,"1":0.1,"2":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.9,"1":0.08,"2":0.02}}},{"issuedAt":1660348800000,"validUntil":1660435200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5056,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2022","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.0002249999999999995,"mean":0.015,"median":0,"bias":0.015,"maeMean":0.015,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.985,"empiricalMass":0.985,"logScore":0.015113637810048184},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.0000999999999999994,"mean":0.01,"median":0,"bias":0.01,"maeMean":0.01,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.99,"empiricalMass":0.99,"logScore":0.01005033585350145},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.0006250000000000006,"mean":0.025,"median":0,"bias":0.025,"maeMean":0.025,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.975,"empiricalMass":0.975,"logScore":0.025317807984289897},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.0025249999999999995,"mean":0.055,"median":0,"bias":0.055,"maeMean":0.055,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.95,"empiricalMass":0.95,"logScore":0.05129329438755058},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.00002499999999999985,"mean":0.005,"median":0,"bias":0.005,"maeMean":0.005,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.995,"empiricalMass":0.995,"logScore":0.005012541823544286},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.000675000000000002,"mean":0.035,"median":0,"bias":0.035,"maeMean":0.035,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.975,"empiricalMass":0.975,"logScore":0.025317807984289897}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.985,"1":0.015},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.99,"1":0.01},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.975,"1":0.025},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.95,"1":0.045,"2":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.995,"1":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.975,"1":0.02,"3":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1660348800000,"validUntil":1660953600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":2,"actual":6,"trainingCount":5056,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2022","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":2.99535,"mean":12.49,"median":11,"bias":6.49,"maeMean":6.49,"maeMedian":5,"low":4,"high":27,"coverage":true,"width":23,"pitLower":0.14,"pitUpper":0.215,"empiricalMass":0.075,"logScore":2.5902671654458267},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.83325,"mean":7.65,"median":6,"bias":1.6500000000000004,"maeMean":1.6500000000000004,"maeMedian":0,"low":2,"high":16,"coverage":true,"width":14,"pitLower":0.395,"pitUpper":0.53,"empiricalMass":0.135,"logScore":2.0024805005437076},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":3.2509249999999996,"mean":12.905,"median":11,"bias":6.904999999999999,"maeMean":6.904999999999999,"maeMedian":5,"low":4,"high":28,"coverage":true,"width":24,"pitLower":0.135,"pitUpper":0.21,"empiricalMass":0.075,"logScore":2.5902671654458267},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":3.4452749999999996,"mean":11.085,"median":11,"bias":5.085000000000001,"maeMean":5.085000000000001,"maeMedian":5,"low":6,"high":16,"coverage":true,"width":10,"pitLower":0.02,"pitUpper":0.065,"empiricalMass":0.045,"logScore":3.101092789211817},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.5471249999999999,"mean":5.855,"median":6,"bias":-0.14499999999999957,"maeMean":0.14499999999999957,"maeMedian":0,"low":2,"high":10,"coverage":true,"width":8,"pitLower":0.475,"pitUpper":0.635,"empiricalMass":0.16,"logScore":1.8325814637483102},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.8774500000000001,"mean":5.92,"median":5,"bias":-0.08000000000000007,"maeMean":0.08000000000000007,"maeMedian":1,"low":1,"high":13,"coverage":true,"width":12,"pitLower":0.53,"pitUpper":0.64,"empiricalMass":0.11,"logScore":2.2072749131897207}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"1":0.015,"2":0.005,"3":0.025,"4":0.03,"5":0.065,"6":0.075,"7":0.095,"8":0.07,"9":0.07,"10":0.035,"11":0.055,"12":0.06,"13":0.055,"14":0.04,"15":0.01,"16":0.035,"17":0.045,"18":0.03,"19":0.015,"20":0.025,"21":0.02,"22":0.025,"23":0.01,"24":0.02,"25":0.005,"26":0.01,"27":0.01,"28":0.005,"29":0.005,"30":0.01,"32":0.005,"35":0.005,"38":0.005,"42":0.005,"47":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.005,"1":0.005,"2":0.045,"3":0.1,"4":0.11,"5":0.13,"6":0.135,"7":0.08,"8":0.095,"9":0.08,"10":0.06,"11":0.04,"12":0.015,"13":0.02,"14":0.015,"15":0.01,"16":0.005,"17":0.005,"18":0.01,"19":0.005,"20":0.005,"22":0.005,"27":0.005,"33":0.005,"42":0.005,"63":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"1":0.01,"2":0.005,"3":0.02,"4":0.055,"5":0.045,"6":0.075,"7":0.065,"8":0.065,"9":0.075,"10":0.045,"11":0.055,"12":0.055,"13":0.075,"14":0.045,"15":0.025,"16":0.035,"17":0.03,"18":0.02,"19":0.01,"20":0.04,"21":0.015,"22":0.025,"23":0.01,"24":0.01,"25":0.01,"26":0.01,"27":0.015,"28":0.01,"29":0.005,"30":0.01,"32":0.01,"33":0.005,"37":0.005,"51":0.005,"53":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"1":0.005,"4":0.005,"5":0.01,"6":0.045,"7":0.035,"8":0.105,"9":0.11,"10":0.13,"11":0.125,"12":0.14,"13":0.065,"14":0.08,"15":0.055,"16":0.05,"17":0.015,"18":0.01,"19":0.015},"recentPoisson":{"1":0.01,"2":0.06,"3":0.09,"4":0.11,"5":0.205,"6":0.16,"7":0.11,"8":0.135,"9":0.05,"10":0.05,"11":0.015,"13":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.025,"1":0.065,"2":0.075,"3":0.105,"4":0.155,"5":0.105,"6":0.11,"7":0.095,"8":0.045,"9":0.04,"10":0.08,"11":0.01,"12":0.025,"13":0.02,"14":0.01,"15":0.015,"16":0.005,"17":0.005,"19":0.005,"21":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1660348800000,"validUntil":1660953600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":3,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5056,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2022","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.6857,"mean":1.49,"median":1,"bias":1.49,"maeMean":1.49,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.285,"empiricalMass":0.285,"logScore":1.2552660987134867},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.41375000000000006,"mean":1.09,"median":1,"bias":1.09,"maeMean":1.09,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.42,"empiricalMass":0.42,"logScore":0.8675005677047231},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.6904000000000001,"mean":1.62,"median":1,"bias":1.62,"maeMean":1.62,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":6,"coverage":true,"width":6,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.33,"empiricalMass":0.33,"logScore":1.1086626245216111},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.8842249999999999,"mean":1.535,"median":1,"bias":1.535,"maeMean":1.535,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.205,"empiricalMass":0.205,"logScore":1.584745299843729},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.29125,"mean":0.74,"median":1,"bias":0.74,"maeMean":0.74,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.49,"empiricalMass":0.49,"logScore":0.7133498878774648},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.30205,"mean":0.76,"median":1,"bias":0.76,"maeMean":0.76,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.48,"empiricalMass":0.48,"logScore":0.7339691750802004}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.285,"1":0.38,"2":0.135,"3":0.07,"4":0.06,"5":0.055,"6":0.005,"8":0.005,"9":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.42,"1":0.335,"2":0.13,"3":0.06,"4":0.03,"5":0.015,"7":0.005,"17":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.33,"1":0.275,"2":0.16,"3":0.095,"4":0.06,"5":0.02,"6":0.04,"7":0.005,"8":0.01,"9":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.205,"1":0.33,"2":0.285,"3":0.125,"4":0.035,"5":0.01,"6":0.005,"8":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.49,"1":0.34,"2":0.125,"3":0.03,"4":0.015},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.48,"1":0.35,"2":0.12,"3":0.035,"4":0.01,"5":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1660348800000,"validUntil":1660953600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5056,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2022","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.018875000000000003,"mean":0.165,"median":0,"bias":0.165,"maeMean":0.165,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.865,"empiricalMass":0.865,"logScore":0.14502577205025774},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.007449999999999998,"mean":0.11,"median":0,"bias":0.11,"maeMean":0.11,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.915,"empiricalMass":0.915,"logScore":0.0888312137066157},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.02410000000000001,"mean":0.19,"median":0,"bias":0.19,"maeMean":0.19,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.85,"empiricalMass":0.85,"logScore":0.16251892949777494},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.031525,"mean":0.205,"median":0,"bias":0.205,"maeMean":0.205,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.825,"empiricalMass":0.825,"logScore":0.19237189264745613},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.0072499999999999926,"mean":0.09,"median":0,"bias":0.09,"maeMean":0.09,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.915,"empiricalMass":0.915,"logScore":0.0888312137066157},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.004849999999999993,"mean":0.09,"median":0,"bias":0.09,"maeMean":0.09,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.935,"empiricalMass":0.935,"logScore":0.06720874969344999}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.865,"1":0.11,"2":0.02,"3":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.915,"1":0.075,"3":0.005,"4":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.85,"1":0.11,"2":0.04},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.825,"1":0.145,"2":0.03},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.915,"1":0.08,"2":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.935,"1":0.04,"2":0.025}}},{"issuedAt":1660348800000,"validUntil":1662940800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":2,"actual":17,"trainingCount":5056,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2022","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":26.013125,"mean":58.645,"median":49,"bias":41.645,"maeMean":41.645,"maeMedian":32,"low":27,"high":119,"coverage":false,"width":92,"pitLower":0.01,"pitUpper":0.01,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"rollingETAS":{"crps":8.057025,"mean":31.295,"median":29,"bias":14.295000000000002,"maeMean":14.295000000000002,"maeMedian":12,"low":17,"high":52,"coverage":true,"width":35,"pitLower":0.045,"pitUpper":0.06,"empiricalMass":0.015,"logScore":4.199705077879927},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":25.4178,"mean":55.61,"median":51,"bias":38.61,"maeMean":38.61,"maeMedian":34,"low":26,"high":107,"coverage":false,"width":81,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.005,"empiricalMass":0.005,"logScore":5.298317366548036},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":27.314774999999997,"mean":47.935,"median":47,"bias":30.935000000000002,"maeMean":30.935000000000002,"maeMedian":30,"low":38,"high":58,"coverage":false,"width":20,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentPoisson":{"crps":5.228175,"mean":25.115,"median":25,"bias":8.114999999999998,"maeMean":8.114999999999998,"maeMedian":8,"low":16,"high":34,"coverage":true,"width":18,"pitLower":0.055,"pitUpper":0.08,"empiricalMass":0.025,"logScore":3.6888794541139363},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":4.139200000000001,"mean":25.06,"median":23.5,"bias":8.059999999999999,"maeMean":8.059999999999999,"maeMedian":6.5,"low":12,"high":44,"coverage":true,"width":32,"pitLower":0.19,"pitUpper":0.225,"empiricalMass":0.035,"logScore":3.3524072174927233}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"16":0.01,"22":0.005,"24":0.005,"26":0.02,"27":0.01,"28":0.005,"29":0.01,"30":0.01,"31":0.005,"32":0.01,"33":0.035,"34":0.035,"35":0.03,"36":0.04,"37":0.02,"38":0.01,"39":0.04,"40":0.02,"41":0.025,"42":0.03,"43":0.015,"44":0.005,"45":0.02,"46":0.015,"47":0.025,"48":0.025,"49":0.03,"50":0.015,"51":0.025,"52":0.03,"53":0.01,"54":0.02,"55":0.01,"56":0.01,"57":0.015,"58":0.015,"59":0.015,"60":0.01,"61":0.02,"62":0.005,"65":0.025,"66":0.01,"67":0.015,"68":0.005,"70":0.005,"73":0.005,"76":0.01,"77":0.01,"78":0.015,"79":0.005,"80":0.005,"82":0.015,"83":0.005,"85":0.005,"86":0.01,"88":0.015,"90":0.01,"91":0.005,"94":0.005,"98":0.005,"103":0.005,"104":0.005,"105":0.01,"108":0.005,"110":0.005,"111":0.01,"114":0.005,"119":0.01,"125":0.005,"129":0.005,"130":0.005,"131":0.005,"148":0.005,"173":0.005,"176":0.005,"179":0.005,"190":0.005,"192":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"11":0.005,"12":0.015,"14":0.01,"15":0.005,"16":0.01,"17":0.015,"18":0.035,"19":0.025,"20":0.025,"21":0.06,"22":0.015,"23":0.03,"24":0.02,"25":0.075,"26":0.05,"27":0.03,"28":0.055,"29":0.055,"30":0.055,"31":0.055,"32":0.05,"33":0.02,"34":0.02,"35":0.02,"36":0.03,"37":0.015,"38":0.015,"39":0.025,"40":0.01,"41":0.01,"42":0.015,"43":0.01,"44":0.01,"45":0.01,"46":0.01,"48":0.01,"50":0.005,"51":0.01,"52":0.015,"54":0.005,"57":0.005,"59":0.005,"66":0.005,"70":0.005,"74":0.005,"81":0.005,"94":0.005,"151":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"17":0.005,"19":0.005,"20":0.01,"21":0.005,"22":0.005,"23":0.005,"25":0.005,"26":0.015,"27":0.015,"28":0.01,"29":0.02,"30":0.01,"31":0.015,"32":0.02,"33":0.01,"34":0.02,"35":0.01,"36":0.005,"37":0.015,"38":0.03,"39":0.03,"40":0.02,"41":0.02,"42":0.04,"43":0.005,"44":0.045,"45":0.015,"46":0.02,"47":0.02,"48":0.02,"49":0.015,"50":0.01,"51":0.03,"52":0.025,"53":0.025,"54":0.025,"55":0.015,"56":0.005,"57":0.01,"58":0.025,"59":0.005,"61":0.015,"62":0.03,"63":0.01,"64":0.015,"65":0.015,"66":0.01,"67":0.005,"68":0.01,"69":0.01,"70":0.01,"71":0.015,"72":0.01,"73":0.015,"74":0.01,"75":0.01,"77":0.005,"78":0.01,"79":0.01,"80":0.005,"81":0.005,"82":0.01,"83":0.005,"85":0.01,"87":0.005,"88":0.005,"95":0.005,"96":0.005,"97":0.005,"100":0.005,"105":0.005,"107":0.005,"109":0.01,"111":0.005,"117":0.005,"124":0.005,"131":0.005,"133":0.005,"157":0.005,"167":0.005,"175":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"33":0.015,"34":0.005,"35":0.005,"37":0.015,"38":0.015,"39":0.04,"40":0.03,"41":0.02,"42":0.05,"43":0.05,"44":0.07,"45":0.04,"46":0.08,"47":0.075,"48":0.04,"49":0.07,"50":0.07,"51":0.03,"52":0.035,"53":0.025,"54":0.07,"55":0.025,"56":0.03,"57":0.02,"58":0.025,"59":0.005,"60":0.005,"61":0.015,"62":0.005,"63":0.01,"65":0.005,"66":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"14":0.005,"15":0.02,"16":0.03,"17":0.025,"18":0.03,"19":0.04,"20":0.055,"21":0.07,"22":0.055,"23":0.055,"24":0.11,"25":0.065,"26":0.055,"27":0.055,"28":0.07,"29":0.045,"30":0.065,"31":0.03,"32":0.01,"33":0.035,"34":0.025,"35":0.015,"36":0.015,"37":0.005,"38":0.005,"39":0.005,"42":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"6":0.01,"7":0.005,"8":0.005,"9":0.005,"10":0.01,"11":0.01,"12":0.01,"13":0.02,"14":0.035,"15":0.025,"16":0.055,"17":0.035,"18":0.03,"19":0.03,"20":0.095,"21":0.025,"22":0.04,"23":0.055,"24":0.05,"25":0.045,"26":0.04,"27":0.035,"28":0.025,"29":0.025,"30":0.035,"31":0.02,"32":0.015,"33":0.025,"34":0.025,"35":0.01,"36":0.01,"37":0.01,"38":0.025,"39":0.02,"40":0.005,"41":0.005,"42":0.015,"43":0.005,"44":0.01,"45":0.015,"47":0.01,"50":0.005,"51":0.005,"54":0.005,"58":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1660348800000,"validUntil":1662940800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":3,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5056,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2022","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":4.69625,"mean":7.58,"median":6,"bias":7.58,"maeMean":7.58,"maeMedian":6,"low":1,"high":19,"coverage":false,"width":18,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.02,"empiricalMass":0.02,"logScore":3.912023005428146},"rollingETAS":{"crps":2.497575,"mean":3.985,"median":3,"bias":3.985,"maeMean":3.985,"maeMedian":3,"low":1,"high":9,"coverage":false,"width":8,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.03,"empiricalMass":0.03,"logScore":3.506557897319982},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":4.2387,"mean":6.74,"median":6,"bias":6.74,"maeMean":6.74,"maeMedian":6,"low":1,"high":16,"coverage":false,"width":15,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.025,"empiricalMass":0.025,"logScore":3.6888794541139363},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":4.979775,"mean":6.515,"median":6,"bias":6.515,"maeMean":6.515,"maeMedian":6,"low":2,"high":11,"coverage":false,"width":9,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.005,"empiricalMass":0.005,"logScore":5.298317366548036},"recentPoisson":{"crps":2.18555,"mean":3.2,"median":3,"bias":3.2,"maeMean":3.2,"maeMedian":3,"low":0,"high":6,"coverage":true,"width":6,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.06,"empiricalMass":0.06,"logScore":2.8134107167600364},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":2.00835,"mean":3.09,"median":3,"bias":3.09,"maeMean":3.09,"maeMedian":3,"low":0,"high":7,"coverage":true,"width":7,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.07,"empiricalMass":0.07,"logScore":2.659260036932778}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.02,"1":0.04,"2":0.065,"3":0.085,"4":0.1,"5":0.095,"6":0.15,"7":0.075,"8":0.06,"9":0.065,"10":0.06,"11":0.02,"12":0.03,"13":0.015,"14":0.02,"16":0.02,"17":0.005,"18":0.01,"19":0.015,"20":0.005,"22":0.01,"23":0.005,"25":0.005,"26":0.005,"27":0.005,"28":0.005,"30":0.01},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.03,"1":0.13,"2":0.175,"3":0.185,"4":0.16,"5":0.11,"6":0.09,"7":0.035,"8":0.015,"9":0.025,"10":0.015,"12":0.005,"13":0.01,"16":0.005,"17":0.005,"25":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.025,"1":0.06,"2":0.1,"3":0.075,"4":0.125,"5":0.045,"6":0.12,"7":0.115,"8":0.055,"9":0.025,"10":0.085,"11":0.035,"12":0.03,"13":0.025,"14":0.01,"15":0.015,"16":0.01,"17":0.005,"18":0.005,"19":0.025,"22":0.005,"27":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.005,"1":0.02,"2":0.035,"3":0.075,"4":0.105,"5":0.115,"6":0.175,"7":0.135,"8":0.11,"9":0.075,"10":0.075,"11":0.04,"12":0.015,"13":0.01,"14":0.005,"17":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.06,"1":0.1,"2":0.23,"3":0.215,"4":0.16,"5":0.13,"6":0.07,"7":0.01,"8":0.015,"9":0.005,"10":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.07,"1":0.16,"2":0.18,"3":0.22,"4":0.155,"5":0.09,"6":0.07,"7":0.03,"8":0.02,"10":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1660348800000,"validUntil":1662940800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5056,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2022","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.28227499999999994,"mean":0.945,"median":0,"bias":0.945,"maeMean":0.945,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.55,"empiricalMass":0.55,"logScore":0.5978370007556204},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.12019999999999997,"mean":0.48,"median":0,"bias":0.48,"maeMean":0.48,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.67,"empiricalMass":0.67,"logScore":0.40047756659712525},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.25897500000000007,"mean":0.785,"median":0,"bias":0.785,"maeMean":0.785,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.535,"empiricalMass":0.535,"logScore":0.6254885320861304},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.28767499999999996,"mean":0.695,"median":1,"bias":0.695,"maeMean":0.695,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.48,"empiricalMass":0.48,"logScore":0.7339691750802004},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.14847499999999997,"mean":0.485,"median":0,"bias":0.485,"maeMean":0.485,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.625,"empiricalMass":0.625,"logScore":0.4700036292457356},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.117975,"mean":0.425,"median":0,"bias":0.425,"maeMean":0.425,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.665,"empiricalMass":0.665,"logScore":0.4079682383262829}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.55,"1":0.2,"2":0.15,"3":0.025,"4":0.04,"5":0.02,"6":0.005,"8":0.01},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.67,"1":0.23,"2":0.065,"3":0.03,"6":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.535,"1":0.285,"2":0.085,"3":0.06,"4":0.025,"5":0.01},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.48,"1":0.395,"2":0.085,"3":0.035,"5":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.625,"1":0.29,"2":0.06,"3":0.025},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.665,"1":0.26,"2":0.065,"3":0.005,"4":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1662940800000,"validUntil":1663027200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":2,"actual":1,"trainingCount":5073,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2022","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.3299500000000001,"mean":1.16,"median":1,"bias":0.15999999999999992,"maeMean":0.15999999999999992,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.47,"pitUpper":0.725,"empiricalMass":0.255,"logScore":1.3664917338237108},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.3000999999999999,"mean":0.83,"median":0,"bias":-0.17000000000000004,"maeMean":0.17000000000000004,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.51,"pitUpper":0.815,"empiricalMass":0.305,"logScore":1.1874435023747254},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.2985,"mean":1.05,"median":1,"bias":0.050000000000000044,"maeMean":0.050000000000000044,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.48,"pitUpper":0.775,"empiricalMass":0.295,"logScore":1.2207799226423173},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.30165,"mean":1.59,"median":1,"bias":0.5900000000000001,"maeMean":0.5900000000000001,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.21,"pitUpper":0.56,"empiricalMass":0.35,"logScore":1.0498221244986778},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.17335,"mean":0.9,"median":1,"bias":-0.09999999999999998,"maeMean":0.09999999999999998,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.36,"pitUpper":0.795,"empiricalMass":0.435,"logScore":0.8324092478934529},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.359325,"mean":0.765,"median":0,"bias":-0.235,"maeMean":0.235,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.56,"pitUpper":0.805,"empiricalMass":0.245,"logScore":1.40649706843741}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.47,"1":0.255,"2":0.135,"3":0.045,"4":0.035,"5":0.03,"6":0.015,"7":0.01,"10":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.51,"1":0.305,"2":0.125,"3":0.025,"4":0.015,"5":0.005,"7":0.005,"8":0.01},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.48,"1":0.295,"2":0.115,"3":0.06,"4":0.01,"5":0.015,"6":0.01,"7":0.005,"9":0.005,"18":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.21,"1":0.35,"2":0.2,"3":0.17,"4":0.035,"5":0.02,"6":0.015},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.36,"1":0.435,"2":0.165,"3":0.03,"4":0.005,"5":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.56,"1":0.245,"2":0.115,"3":0.05,"4":0.01,"5":0.02}}},{"issuedAt":1662940800000,"validUntil":1663027200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":3,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5073,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2022","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.00995,"mean":0.13,"median":0,"bias":0.13,"maeMean":0.13,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.905,"empiricalMass":0.905,"logScore":0.0998203352822109},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.011349999999999999,"mean":0.15,"median":0,"bias":0.15,"maeMean":0.15,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.9,"empiricalMass":0.9,"logScore":0.10536051565782628},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.011450000000000016,"mean":0.14,"median":0,"bias":0.14,"maeMean":0.14,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.895,"empiricalMass":0.895,"logScore":0.11093156070728166},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.034225000000000005,"mean":0.185,"median":0,"bias":0.185,"maeMean":0.185,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.815,"empiricalMass":0.815,"logScore":0.2045671657412744},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.006400000000000003,"mean":0.08,"median":0,"bias":0.08,"maeMean":0.08,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.92,"empiricalMass":0.92,"logScore":0.08338160893905101},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.009425000000000003,"mean":0.115,"median":0,"bias":0.115,"maeMean":0.115,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.905,"empiricalMass":0.905,"logScore":0.0998203352822109}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.905,"1":0.065,"2":0.025,"3":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.9,"1":0.065,"2":0.025,"3":0.005,"4":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.895,"1":0.09,"2":0.005,"4":0.01},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.815,"1":0.185},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.92,"1":0.08},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.905,"1":0.075,"2":0.02}}},{"issuedAt":1662940800000,"validUntil":1663027200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5073,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2022","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.0002249999999999995,"mean":0.015,"median":0,"bias":0.015,"maeMean":0.015,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.985,"empiricalMass":0.985,"logScore":0.015113637810048184},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.000449999999999999,"mean":0.03,"median":0,"bias":0.03,"maeMean":0.03,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.98,"empiricalMass":0.98,"logScore":0.020202707317519466},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.0000999999999999994,"mean":0.01,"median":0,"bias":0.01,"maeMean":0.01,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.99,"empiricalMass":0.99,"logScore":0.01005033585350145},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.0002249999999999995,"mean":0.015,"median":0,"bias":0.015,"maeMean":0.015,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.985,"empiricalMass":0.985,"logScore":0.015113637810048184},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.0000999999999999994,"mean":0.01,"median":0,"bias":0.01,"maeMean":0.01,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.99,"empiricalMass":0.99,"logScore":0.01005033585350145},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.00002499999999999985,"mean":0.005,"median":0,"bias":0.005,"maeMean":0.005,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.995,"empiricalMass":0.995,"logScore":0.005012541823544286}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.985,"1":0.015},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.98,"1":0.015,"3":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.99,"1":0.01},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.985,"1":0.015},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.99,"1":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.995,"1":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1662940800000,"validUntil":1663545600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":2,"actual":6,"trainingCount":5073,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2022","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":1.7548499999999994,"mean":10.46,"median":8,"bias":4.460000000000001,"maeMean":4.460000000000001,"maeMedian":2,"low":2,"high":23,"coverage":true,"width":21,"pitLower":0.3,"pitUpper":0.38,"empiricalMass":0.08,"logScore":2.5257286443082556},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.7740749999999998,"mean":7.545,"median":6,"bias":1.545,"maeMean":1.545,"maeMedian":0,"low":2,"high":18,"coverage":true,"width":16,"pitLower":0.425,"pitUpper":0.56,"empiricalMass":0.135,"logScore":2.0024805005437076},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":1.4961000000000002,"mean":9.36,"median":8,"bias":3.3599999999999994,"maeMean":3.3599999999999994,"maeMedian":2,"low":2,"high":24,"coverage":true,"width":22,"pitLower":0.34,"pitUpper":0.43,"empiricalMass":0.09,"logScore":2.4079456086518722},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":3.8017499999999993,"mean":11.47,"median":11,"bias":5.470000000000001,"maeMean":5.470000000000001,"maeMedian":5,"low":6,"high":16,"coverage":true,"width":10,"pitLower":0.03,"pitUpper":0.06,"empiricalMass":0.03,"logScore":3.506557897319982},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.5523750000000001,"mean":5.585,"median":5,"bias":-0.41500000000000004,"maeMean":0.41500000000000004,"maeMedian":1,"low":2,"high":9,"coverage":true,"width":7,"pitLower":0.515,"pitUpper":0.69,"empiricalMass":0.175,"logScore":1.742969305058623},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":1.0306249999999997,"mean":5.645,"median":5,"bias":-0.3550000000000004,"maeMean":0.3550000000000004,"maeMedian":1,"low":1,"high":14,"coverage":true,"width":13,"pitLower":0.565,"pitUpper":0.655,"empiricalMass":0.09,"logScore":2.4079456086518722}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"1":0.035,"2":0.045,"3":0.07,"4":0.06,"5":0.09,"6":0.08,"7":0.065,"8":0.075,"9":0.06,"10":0.07,"11":0.06,"12":0.035,"13":0.03,"14":0.025,"15":0.03,"16":0.03,"17":0.015,"18":0.01,"19":0.01,"20":0.015,"21":0.015,"22":0.02,"23":0.005,"25":0.01,"26":0.005,"27":0.005,"29":0.005,"46":0.005,"51":0.005,"53":0.005,"62":0.005,"79":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.01,"1":0.02,"2":0.045,"3":0.105,"4":0.09,"5":0.155,"6":0.135,"7":0.12,"8":0.065,"9":0.07,"10":0.015,"11":0.06,"12":0.02,"13":0.015,"14":0.005,"15":0.01,"16":0.005,"18":0.005,"19":0.01,"20":0.005,"24":0.005,"27":0.005,"30":0.005,"32":0.005,"41":0.005,"45":0.005,"53":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.02,"1":0.025,"2":0.03,"3":0.08,"4":0.09,"5":0.095,"6":0.09,"7":0.045,"8":0.07,"9":0.08,"10":0.07,"11":0.07,"12":0.03,"13":0.025,"14":0.03,"15":0.005,"16":0.01,"17":0.015,"18":0.03,"19":0.01,"20":0.005,"21":0.005,"23":0.015,"24":0.025,"26":0.005,"28":0.005,"39":0.005,"43":0.005,"44":0.01},"expandingPoisson":{"3":0.005,"4":0.005,"5":0.02,"6":0.03,"7":0.04,"8":0.075,"9":0.08,"10":0.135,"11":0.12,"12":0.105,"13":0.12,"14":0.1,"15":0.06,"16":0.06,"17":0.03,"19":0.005,"20":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.01,"1":0.02,"2":0.055,"3":0.105,"4":0.12,"5":0.205,"6":0.175,"7":0.125,"8":0.07,"9":0.075,"10":0.005,"11":0.02,"12":0.01,"17":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.025,"1":0.1,"2":0.1,"3":0.135,"4":0.115,"5":0.09,"6":0.09,"7":0.085,"8":0.06,"9":0.03,"10":0.04,"11":0.045,"12":0.02,"13":0.01,"14":0.025,"15":0.005,"16":0.005,"17":0.005,"19":0.01,"20":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1662940800000,"validUntil":1663545600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":3,"actual":1,"trainingCount":5073,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2022","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.33257500000000007,"mean":1.345,"median":1,"bias":0.345,"maeMean":0.345,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.43,"pitUpper":0.685,"empiricalMass":0.255,"logScore":1.3664917338237108},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.275,"mean":0.97,"median":1,"bias":-0.030000000000000027,"maeMean":0.030000000000000027,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.475,"pitUpper":0.8,"empiricalMass":0.325,"logScore":1.1239300966523995},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.316875,"mean":1.255,"median":1,"bias":0.2549999999999999,"maeMean":0.2549999999999999,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.42,"pitUpper":0.68,"empiricalMass":0.26,"logScore":1.3470736479666092},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.276775,"mean":1.535,"median":1,"bias":0.5349999999999999,"maeMean":0.5349999999999999,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.175,"pitUpper":0.54,"empiricalMass":0.365,"logScore":1.0078579253996456},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.25357499999999994,"mean":0.755,"median":1,"bias":-0.245,"maeMean":0.245,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.47,"pitUpper":0.825,"empiricalMass":0.355,"logScore":1.0356374895067213},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.35509999999999997,"mean":0.76,"median":0,"bias":-0.24,"maeMean":0.24,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.56,"pitUpper":0.815,"empiricalMass":0.255,"logScore":1.3664917338237108}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.43,"1":0.255,"2":0.14,"3":0.07,"4":0.04,"5":0.035,"6":0.005,"8":0.01,"9":0.005,"11":0.01},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.475,"1":0.325,"2":0.125,"3":0.04,"4":0.01,"6":0.005,"8":0.005,"9":0.005,"11":0.005,"13":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.42,"1":0.26,"2":0.16,"3":0.065,"4":0.045,"5":0.025,"6":0.01,"7":0.005,"8":0.01},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.175,"1":0.365,"2":0.29,"3":0.095,"4":0.07,"5":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.47,"1":0.355,"2":0.13,"3":0.04,"4":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.56,"1":0.255,"2":0.11,"3":0.04,"4":0.015,"5":0.015,"6":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1662940800000,"validUntil":1663545600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5073,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2022","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.014824999999999977,"mean":0.145,"median":0,"bias":0.145,"maeMean":0.145,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.88,"empiricalMass":0.88,"logScore":0.12783337150988489},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.010825000000000001,"mean":0.145,"median":0,"bias":0.145,"maeMean":0.145,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.9,"empiricalMass":0.9,"logScore":0.10536051565782628},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.010249999999999995,"mean":0.12,"median":0,"bias":0.12,"maeMean":0.12,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.9,"empiricalMass":0.9,"logScore":0.10536051565782628},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.0257,"mean":0.17,"median":0,"bias":0.17,"maeMean":0.17,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.84,"empiricalMass":0.84,"logScore":0.1743533871447778},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.014399999999999996,"mean":0.12,"median":0,"bias":0.12,"maeMean":0.12,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.88,"empiricalMass":0.88,"logScore":0.12783337150988489},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.01765,"mean":0.17,"median":0,"bias":0.17,"maeMean":0.17,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.87,"empiricalMass":0.87,"logScore":0.13926206733350766}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.88,"1":0.1,"2":0.015,"3":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.9,"1":0.075,"2":0.015,"4":0.01},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.9,"1":0.085,"2":0.01,"3":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.84,"1":0.15,"2":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.88,"1":0.12},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.87,"1":0.105,"2":0.015,"3":0.005,"4":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1662940800000,"validUntil":1665532800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":2,"actual":35,"trainingCount":5073,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2022","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":7.476750000000001,"mean":51.16,"median":47,"bias":16.159999999999997,"maeMean":16.159999999999997,"maeMedian":12,"low":22,"high":100,"coverage":true,"width":78,"pitLower":0.27,"pitUpper":0.285,"empiricalMass":0.015,"logScore":4.199705077879927},"rollingETAS":{"crps":4.723274999999999,"mean":29.305,"median":27,"bias":-5.695,"maeMean":5.695,"maeMedian":8,"low":14,"high":50,"coverage":true,"width":36,"pitLower":0.775,"pitUpper":0.79,"empiricalMass":0.015,"logScore":4.199705077879927},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":6.651300000000001,"mean":49.39,"median":44,"bias":14.39,"maeMean":14.39,"maeMedian":9,"low":21,"high":97,"coverage":true,"width":76,"pitLower":0.315,"pitUpper":0.33,"empiricalMass":0.015,"logScore":4.199705077879927},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":9.835625,"mean":48.595,"median":49,"bias":13.594999999999999,"maeMean":13.594999999999999,"maeMedian":14,"low":37,"high":59,"coverage":false,"width":22,"pitLower":0.015,"pitUpper":0.025,"empiricalMass":0.01,"logScore":4.605170185988091},"recentPoisson":{"crps":7.525774999999999,"mean":24.805,"median":25,"bias":-10.195,"maeMean":10.195,"maeMedian":10,"low":16,"high":33,"coverage":false,"width":17,"pitLower":0.98,"pitUpper":0.98,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":6.634024999999999,"mean":24.615,"median":23,"bias":-10.385000000000002,"maeMean":10.385000000000002,"maeMedian":12,"low":10,"high":42,"coverage":true,"width":32,"pitLower":0.835,"pitUpper":0.865,"empiricalMass":0.03,"logScore":3.506557897319982}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"18":0.01,"19":0.015,"20":0.01,"21":0.01,"22":0.01,"23":0.005,"24":0.005,"25":0.03,"26":0.02,"27":0.03,"28":0.02,"29":0.03,"30":0.005,"31":0.035,"32":0.005,"33":0.01,"34":0.02,"35":0.015,"36":0.02,"37":0.03,"38":0.02,"39":0.015,"40":0.005,"41":0.025,"42":0.01,"43":0.035,"44":0.015,"45":0.01,"46":0.015,"47":0.02,"48":0.025,"49":0.015,"50":0.02,"51":0.02,"52":0.03,"53":0.01,"54":0.035,"55":0.015,"56":0.025,"57":0.005,"58":0.02,"59":0.01,"60":0.03,"61":0.015,"62":0.005,"63":0.01,"64":0.015,"65":0.01,"67":0.005,"68":0.015,"71":0.015,"72":0.005,"74":0.01,"75":0.01,"76":0.005,"77":0.01,"79":0.005,"80":0.005,"82":0.005,"87":0.005,"90":0.005,"92":0.005,"95":0.005,"96":0.005,"98":0.01,"100":0.005,"102":0.005,"105":0.005,"110":0.005,"112":0.005,"116":0.005,"120":0.005,"135":0.005,"144":0.005,"154":0.005,"194":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"13":0.035,"14":0.015,"15":0.015,"16":0.03,"17":0.035,"18":0.025,"19":0.03,"20":0.01,"21":0.045,"22":0.045,"23":0.055,"24":0.035,"25":0.045,"26":0.05,"27":0.05,"28":0.06,"29":0.025,"30":0.04,"31":0.045,"32":0.035,"33":0.03,"34":0.02,"35":0.015,"36":0.03,"37":0.015,"38":0.015,"39":0.025,"40":0.01,"41":0.01,"42":0.015,"44":0.005,"45":0.005,"47":0.005,"48":0.01,"49":0.005,"50":0.015,"55":0.005,"56":0.005,"58":0.005,"59":0.005,"65":0.005,"71":0.01,"89":0.005,"119":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"11":0.005,"14":0.005,"17":0.01,"19":0.01,"20":0.01,"21":0.015,"22":0.02,"23":0.02,"24":0.015,"25":0.015,"26":0.015,"27":0.025,"28":0.005,"29":0.015,"30":0.02,"31":0.03,"32":0.015,"33":0.04,"34":0.025,"35":0.015,"36":0.01,"37":0.02,"38":0.01,"39":0.025,"40":0.015,"41":0.03,"42":0.03,"43":0.025,"44":0.04,"45":0.045,"46":0.005,"47":0.01,"48":0.01,"49":0.01,"50":0.01,"51":0.005,"52":0.005,"53":0.015,"54":0.02,"55":0.015,"56":0.02,"58":0.02,"59":0.01,"60":0.01,"61":0.025,"62":0.01,"64":0.005,"65":0.01,"66":0.015,"67":0.01,"69":0.01,"70":0.005,"71":0.005,"72":0.01,"74":0.01,"76":0.005,"77":0.005,"78":0.005,"79":0.005,"83":0.01,"84":0.005,"85":0.005,"86":0.005,"88":0.005,"89":0.005,"90":0.005,"92":0.005,"93":0.005,"94":0.005,"96":0.005,"97":0.015,"100":0.005,"102":0.005,"105":0.01,"108":0.005,"112":0.005,"122":0.005,"130":0.005,"156":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"29":0.005,"32":0.005,"33":0.005,"35":0.01,"36":0.015,"37":0.02,"39":0.03,"40":0.045,"41":0.015,"42":0.03,"43":0.06,"44":0.05,"45":0.05,"46":0.05,"47":0.055,"48":0.04,"49":0.065,"50":0.05,"51":0.04,"52":0.04,"53":0.05,"54":0.06,"55":0.065,"56":0.03,"57":0.03,"58":0.02,"59":0.02,"60":0.015,"61":0.005,"62":0.005,"63":0.005,"65":0.005,"66":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"10":0.005,"12":0.005,"13":0.01,"14":0.005,"15":0.02,"16":0.01,"17":0.005,"18":0.015,"19":0.05,"20":0.04,"21":0.095,"22":0.06,"23":0.065,"24":0.075,"25":0.13,"26":0.07,"27":0.07,"28":0.05,"29":0.045,"30":0.045,"31":0.045,"32":0.02,"33":0.015,"34":0.03,"36":0.005,"37":0.005,"38":0.005,"40":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"3":0.005,"4":0.005,"6":0.005,"7":0.01,"8":0.005,"9":0.015,"10":0.01,"11":0.005,"12":0.025,"13":0.02,"14":0.015,"15":0.035,"16":0.035,"17":0.055,"18":0.05,"19":0.03,"20":0.05,"21":0.025,"22":0.065,"23":0.04,"24":0.05,"25":0.02,"26":0.015,"27":0.04,"28":0.03,"29":0.04,"30":0.03,"31":0.03,"32":0.045,"33":0.015,"34":0.015,"35":0.03,"36":0.02,"37":0.01,"38":0.02,"39":0.01,"40":0.005,"41":0.01,"42":0.015,"43":0.01,"45":0.02,"46":0.005,"47":0.005,"49":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1662940800000,"validUntil":1665532800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":3,"actual":3,"trainingCount":5073,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2022","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":1.4442249999999999,"mean":6.285,"median":5,"bias":3.285,"maeMean":3.285,"maeMedian":2,"low":1,"high":15,"coverage":true,"width":14,"pitLower":0.195,"pitUpper":0.31,"empiricalMass":0.115,"logScore":2.162823150618887},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.5915500000000002,"mean":3.72,"median":3,"bias":0.7200000000000002,"maeMean":0.7200000000000002,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":9,"coverage":true,"width":9,"pitLower":0.42,"pitUpper":0.595,"empiricalMass":0.175,"logScore":1.742969305058623},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":1.496025,"mean":6.235,"median":5,"bias":3.2350000000000003,"maeMean":3.2350000000000003,"maeMedian":2,"low":1,"high":15,"coverage":true,"width":14,"pitLower":0.215,"pitUpper":0.31,"empiricalMass":0.095,"logScore":2.353878387381596},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":2.211575,"mean":6.425,"median":6,"bias":3.425,"maeMean":3.425,"maeMedian":3,"low":3,"high":10,"coverage":true,"width":7,"pitLower":0.035,"pitUpper":0.1,"empiricalMass":0.065,"logScore":2.7333680090865},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.31172500000000003,"mean":3.105,"median":3,"bias":0.10499999999999998,"maeMean":0.10499999999999998,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":6,"coverage":true,"width":6,"pitLower":0.355,"pitUpper":0.66,"empiricalMass":0.305,"logScore":1.1874435023747254},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.519075,"mean":3.115,"median":3,"bias":0.11500000000000021,"maeMean":0.11500000000000021,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":8,"coverage":true,"width":8,"pitLower":0.475,"pitUpper":0.675,"empiricalMass":0.2,"logScore":1.6094379124341003}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.03,"1":0.075,"2":0.09,"3":0.115,"4":0.145,"5":0.09,"6":0.07,"7":0.07,"8":0.075,"9":0.045,"10":0.035,"11":0.03,"12":0.02,"13":0.035,"14":0.005,"15":0.03,"17":0.01,"18":0.01,"21":0.005,"22":0.005,"24":0.005,"32":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.055,"1":0.19,"2":0.175,"3":0.175,"4":0.085,"5":0.105,"6":0.08,"7":0.035,"8":0.025,"9":0.025,"10":0.015,"11":0.005,"12":0.01,"13":0.005,"14":0.005,"17":0.005,"19":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.045,"1":0.065,"2":0.105,"3":0.095,"4":0.115,"5":0.11,"6":0.08,"7":0.08,"8":0.055,"9":0.06,"10":0.035,"11":0.02,"12":0.02,"13":0.03,"14":0.02,"15":0.015,"16":0.01,"17":0.01,"18":0.015,"22":0.01,"24":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.005,"1":0.015,"2":0.015,"3":0.065,"4":0.11,"5":0.16,"6":0.145,"7":0.19,"8":0.095,"9":0.08,"10":0.075,"11":0.03,"12":0.01,"13":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.05,"1":0.1,"2":0.205,"3":0.305,"4":0.145,"5":0.12,"6":0.04,"7":0.02,"8":0.015},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.095,"1":0.2,"2":0.18,"3":0.2,"4":0.11,"5":0.05,"6":0.07,"7":0.02,"8":0.025,"9":0.02,"10":0.015,"11":0.01,"13":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1662940800000,"validUntil":1665532800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5073,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2022","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.23452499999999998,"mean":0.745,"median":0,"bias":0.745,"maeMean":0.745,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.555,"empiricalMass":0.555,"logScore":0.5887871652357024},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.1058,"mean":0.44,"median":0,"bias":0.44,"maeMean":0.44,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.69,"empiricalMass":0.69,"logScore":0.37106368139083207},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.19240000000000002,"mean":0.67,"median":0,"bias":0.67,"maeMean":0.67,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.605,"empiricalMass":0.605,"logScore":0.5025268209512956},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.390175,"mean":0.885,"median":1,"bias":0.885,"maeMean":0.885,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.425,"empiricalMass":0.425,"logScore":0.8556661100577202},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.155675,"mean":0.485,"median":0,"bias":0.485,"maeMean":0.485,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.615,"empiricalMass":0.615,"logScore":0.4861330111756192},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.17459999999999998,"mean":0.5,"median":0,"bias":0.5,"maeMean":0.5,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.59,"empiricalMass":0.59,"logScore":0.527632742082372}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.555,"1":0.265,"2":0.125,"3":0.03,"4":0.01,"5":0.005,"7":0.005,"8":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.69,"1":0.215,"2":0.07,"3":0.02,"5":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.605,"1":0.225,"2":0.085,"3":0.07,"4":0.01,"5":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.425,"1":0.34,"2":0.17,"3":0.055,"4":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.615,"1":0.3,"2":0.07,"3":0.015},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.59,"1":0.33,"2":0.07,"3":0.01}}},{"issuedAt":1665532800000,"validUntil":1665619200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":2,"actual":1,"trainingCount":5108,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2022","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.279875,"mean":1.335,"median":1,"bias":0.33499999999999996,"maeMean":0.33499999999999996,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.38,"pitUpper":0.68,"empiricalMass":0.3,"logScore":1.2039728043259361},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.24257499999999999,"mean":0.855,"median":1,"bias":-0.14500000000000002,"maeMean":0.14500000000000002,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.45,"pitUpper":0.82,"empiricalMass":0.37,"logScore":0.9942522733438669},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.2914000000000001,"mean":1.36,"median":1,"bias":0.3600000000000001,"maeMean":0.3600000000000001,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.38,"pitUpper":0.67,"empiricalMass":0.29,"logScore":1.2378743560016174},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.35225000000000006,"mean":1.64,"median":2,"bias":0.6399999999999999,"maeMean":0.6399999999999999,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.195,"pitUpper":0.495,"empiricalMass":0.3,"logScore":1.2039728043259361},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.25287499999999996,"mean":0.785,"median":1,"bias":-0.21499999999999997,"maeMean":0.21499999999999997,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.465,"pitUpper":0.815,"empiricalMass":0.35,"logScore":1.0498221244986778},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.34077499999999994,"mean":0.905,"median":0,"bias":-0.09499999999999997,"maeMean":0.09499999999999997,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.525,"pitUpper":0.77,"empiricalMass":0.245,"logScore":1.40649706843741}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.38,"1":0.3,"2":0.175,"3":0.055,"4":0.045,"5":0.02,"7":0.005,"8":0.01,"9":0.005,"16":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.45,"1":0.37,"2":0.105,"3":0.03,"4":0.04,"5":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.38,"1":0.29,"2":0.165,"3":0.08,"4":0.045,"5":0.01,"6":0.01,"7":0.005,"9":0.005,"11":0.005,"15":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.195,"1":0.3,"2":0.27,"3":0.175,"4":0.045,"5":0.005,"6":0.005,"8":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.465,"1":0.35,"2":0.14,"3":0.025,"4":0.02},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.525,"1":0.245,"2":0.14,"3":0.04,"4":0.015,"5":0.015,"6":0.015,"7":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1665532800000,"validUntil":1665619200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":3,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5108,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2022","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.009349999999999997,"mean":0.12,"median":0,"bias":0.12,"maeMean":0.12,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.905,"empiricalMass":0.905,"logScore":0.0998203352822109},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.010099999999999998,"mean":0.11,"median":0,"bias":0.11,"maeMean":0.11,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.9,"empiricalMass":0.9,"logScore":0.10536051565782628},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.00789999999999999,"mean":0.12,"median":0,"bias":0.12,"maeMean":0.12,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.915,"empiricalMass":0.915,"logScore":0.0888312137066157},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.03082500000000002,"mean":0.195,"median":0,"bias":0.195,"maeMean":0.195,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.825,"empiricalMass":0.825,"logScore":0.19237189264745613},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.014399999999999996,"mean":0.12,"median":0,"bias":0.12,"maeMean":0.12,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.88,"empiricalMass":0.88,"logScore":0.12783337150988489},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.007324999999999998,"mean":0.115,"median":0,"bias":0.115,"maeMean":0.115,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.92,"empiricalMass":0.92,"logScore":0.08338160893905101}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.905,"1":0.08,"2":0.005,"3":0.01},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.9,"1":0.09,"2":0.01},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.915,"1":0.06,"2":0.02,"4":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.825,"1":0.165,"3":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.88,"1":0.12},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.92,"1":0.05,"2":0.025,"3":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1665532800000,"validUntil":1665619200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5108,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2022","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.00040000000000000105,"mean":0.02,"median":0,"bias":0.02,"maeMean":0.02,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.98,"empiricalMass":0.98,"logScore":0.020202707317519466},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.0000999999999999994,"mean":0.01,"median":0,"bias":0.01,"maeMean":0.01,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.99,"empiricalMass":0.99,"logScore":0.01005033585350145},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.0002249999999999995,"mean":0.015,"median":0,"bias":0.015,"maeMean":0.015,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.985,"empiricalMass":0.985,"logScore":0.015113637810048184},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.000899999999999998,"mean":0.03,"median":0,"bias":0.03,"maeMean":0.03,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.97,"empiricalMass":0.97,"logScore":0.030459207484708574},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.000899999999999998,"mean":0.03,"median":0,"bias":0.03,"maeMean":0.03,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.97,"empiricalMass":0.97,"logScore":0.030459207484708574},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.0000999999999999994,"mean":0.01,"median":0,"bias":0.01,"maeMean":0.01,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.99,"empiricalMass":0.99,"logScore":0.01005033585350145}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.98,"1":0.02},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.99,"1":0.01},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.985,"1":0.015},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.97,"1":0.03},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.97,"1":0.03},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.99,"1":0.01}}},{"issuedAt":1665532800000,"validUntil":1666137600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":2,"actual":7,"trainingCount":5108,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2022","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":1.6042749999999995,"mean":10.935,"median":8,"bias":3.9350000000000005,"maeMean":3.9350000000000005,"maeMedian":1,"low":3,"high":28,"coverage":true,"width":25,"pitLower":0.345,"pitUpper":0.425,"empiricalMass":0.08,"logScore":2.5257286443082556},"rollingETAS":{"crps":1.0433500000000002,"mean":6.38,"median":5,"bias":-0.6200000000000001,"maeMean":0.6200000000000001,"maeMedian":2,"low":2,"high":13,"coverage":true,"width":11,"pitLower":0.62,"pitUpper":0.7,"empiricalMass":0.08,"logScore":2.5257286443082556},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":1.8381749999999997,"mean":11.765,"median":9,"bias":4.765000000000001,"maeMean":4.765000000000001,"maeMedian":2,"low":3,"high":29,"coverage":true,"width":26,"pitLower":0.315,"pitUpper":0.39,"empiricalMass":0.075,"logScore":2.5902671654458267},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":2.49725,"mean":11.04,"median":11,"bias":4.039999999999999,"maeMean":4.039999999999999,"maeMedian":4,"low":5,"high":17,"coverage":true,"width":12,"pitLower":0.11,"pitUpper":0.16,"empiricalMass":0.05,"logScore":2.995732273553991},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.7128000000000001,"mean":6.25,"median":6,"bias":-0.75,"maeMean":0.75,"maeMedian":1,"low":3,"high":11,"coverage":true,"width":8,"pitLower":0.6,"pitUpper":0.725,"empiricalMass":0.125,"logScore":2.0794415416798357},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":1.194375,"mean":5.855,"median":5,"bias":-1.1449999999999996,"maeMean":1.1449999999999996,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":14,"coverage":true,"width":14,"pitLower":0.64,"pitUpper":0.725,"empiricalMass":0.085,"logScore":2.4651040224918206}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"1":0.01,"2":0.025,"3":0.085,"4":0.055,"5":0.055,"6":0.115,"7":0.08,"8":0.085,"9":0.035,"10":0.09,"11":0.045,"12":0.045,"13":0.035,"14":0.025,"15":0.025,"16":0.025,"17":0.015,"18":0.03,"19":0.005,"20":0.005,"21":0.005,"23":0.005,"24":0.015,"25":0.005,"26":0.005,"27":0.01,"28":0.015,"29":0.015,"30":0.005,"37":0.005,"38":0.005,"39":0.01,"49":0.005,"51":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.005,"1":0.04,"2":0.06,"3":0.105,"4":0.18,"5":0.125,"6":0.105,"7":0.08,"8":0.065,"9":0.105,"10":0.055,"11":0.01,"12":0.005,"13":0.02,"14":0.005,"16":0.01,"22":0.005,"23":0.01,"24":0.005,"47":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.005,"1":0.01,"2":0.02,"3":0.05,"4":0.075,"5":0.09,"6":0.065,"7":0.075,"8":0.065,"9":0.065,"10":0.045,"11":0.07,"12":0.03,"13":0.06,"14":0.045,"15":0.04,"16":0.03,"17":0.01,"18":0.025,"19":0.005,"20":0.02,"21":0.005,"22":0.01,"23":0.01,"24":0.015,"25":0.005,"29":0.015,"30":0.01,"34":0.01,"55":0.005,"60":0.005,"86":0.005,"98":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"1":0.005,"3":0.005,"4":0.025,"5":0.045,"6":0.03,"7":0.05,"8":0.075,"9":0.075,"10":0.15,"11":0.105,"12":0.11,"13":0.055,"14":0.095,"15":0.06,"16":0.04,"17":0.04,"18":0.015,"19":0.02},"recentPoisson":{"1":0.015,"2":0.03,"3":0.075,"4":0.125,"5":0.145,"6":0.21,"7":0.125,"8":0.095,"9":0.07,"10":0.055,"11":0.03,"12":0.01,"13":0.01,"14":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.065,"1":0.1,"2":0.07,"3":0.075,"4":0.09,"5":0.115,"6":0.125,"7":0.085,"8":0.065,"9":0.055,"10":0.04,"11":0.03,"12":0.03,"14":0.01,"15":0.01,"16":0.005,"18":0.005,"19":0.005,"20":0.01,"24":0.005,"26":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1665532800000,"validUntil":1666137600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":3,"actual":1,"trainingCount":5108,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2022","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.3334499999999999,"mean":1.28,"median":1,"bias":0.28,"maeMean":0.28,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.435,"pitUpper":0.68,"empiricalMass":0.245,"logScore":1.40649706843741},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.31532499999999997,"mean":0.815,"median":0,"bias":-0.18500000000000005,"maeMean":0.18500000000000005,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.515,"pitUpper":0.79,"empiricalMass":0.275,"logScore":1.2909841813155656},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.33252499999999996,"mean":1.515,"median":1,"bias":0.5149999999999999,"maeMean":0.5149999999999999,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.385,"pitUpper":0.635,"empiricalMass":0.25,"logScore":1.3862943611198906},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.3036500000000001,"mean":1.43,"median":1,"bias":0.42999999999999994,"maeMean":0.42999999999999994,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.25,"pitUpper":0.535,"empiricalMass":0.285,"logScore":1.2552660987134867},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.29992499999999994,"mean":0.675,"median":0,"bias":-0.32499999999999996,"maeMean":0.32499999999999996,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.52,"pitUpper":0.83,"empiricalMass":0.31,"logScore":1.171182981502945},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.38935000000000003,"mean":0.56,"median":0,"bias":-0.43999999999999995,"maeMean":0.43999999999999995,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.61,"pitUpper":0.875,"empiricalMass":0.265,"logScore":1.3280254529959148}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.435,"1":0.245,"2":0.15,"3":0.08,"4":0.035,"5":0.025,"6":0.01,"8":0.01,"9":0.01},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.515,"1":0.275,"2":0.14,"3":0.04,"4":0.02,"6":0.01},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.385,"1":0.25,"2":0.18,"3":0.1,"4":0.02,"5":0.02,"6":0.01,"7":0.005,"8":0.01,"9":0.005,"12":0.005,"13":0.005,"16":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.25,"1":0.285,"2":0.315,"3":0.105,"4":0.025,"5":0.02},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.52,"1":0.31,"2":0.145,"3":0.025},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.61,"1":0.265,"2":0.085,"3":0.035,"4":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1665532800000,"validUntil":1666137600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5108,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2022","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.012500000000000011,"mean":0.13,"median":0,"bias":0.13,"maeMean":0.13,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.89,"empiricalMass":0.89,"logScore":0.11653381625595151},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.004025000000000001,"mean":0.085,"median":0,"bias":0.085,"maeMean":0.085,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.94,"empiricalMass":0.94,"logScore":0.06187540371808753},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.023925000000000002,"mean":0.215,"median":0,"bias":0.215,"maeMean":0.215,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.855,"empiricalMass":0.855,"logScore":0.15665381004537685},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.022900000000000004,"mean":0.17,"median":0,"bias":0.17,"maeMean":0.17,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.85,"empiricalMass":0.85,"logScore":0.16251892949777494},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.006499999999999992,"mean":0.09,"median":0,"bias":0.09,"maeMean":0.09,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.92,"empiricalMass":0.92,"logScore":0.08338160893905101},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.012225,"mean":0.125,"median":0,"bias":0.125,"maeMean":0.125,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.89,"empiricalMass":0.89,"logScore":0.11653381625595151}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.89,"1":0.09,"2":0.02},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.94,"1":0.04,"2":0.015,"3":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.855,"1":0.095,"2":0.03,"3":0.02},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.85,"1":0.13,"2":0.02},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.92,"1":0.07,"2":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.89,"1":0.1,"2":0.005,"3":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1665532800000,"validUntil":1668124800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":2,"actual":24,"trainingCount":5108,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2022","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":16.727,"mean":54.49,"median":47,"bias":30.490000000000002,"maeMean":30.490000000000002,"maeMedian":23,"low":25,"high":99,"coverage":false,"width":74,"pitLower":0.025,"pitUpper":0.04,"empiricalMass":0.015,"logScore":4.199705077879927},"rollingETAS":{"crps":2.3991749999999996,"mean":28.495,"median":26,"bias":4.495000000000001,"maeMean":4.495000000000001,"maeMedian":2,"low":15,"high":47,"coverage":true,"width":32,"pitLower":0.39,"pitUpper":0.415,"empiricalMass":0.025,"logScore":3.6888794541139363},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":14.796750000000001,"mean":51.63,"median":46,"bias":27.630000000000003,"maeMean":27.630000000000003,"maeMedian":22,"low":23,"high":103,"coverage":true,"width":80,"pitLower":0.055,"pitUpper":0.06,"empiricalMass":0.005,"logScore":5.298317366548036},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":20.561975,"mean":48.125,"median":48,"bias":24.125,"maeMean":24.125,"maeMedian":24,"low":37,"high":58,"coverage":false,"width":21,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentPoisson":{"crps":1.3850499999999997,"mean":25.83,"median":25,"bias":1.8299999999999983,"maeMean":1.8299999999999983,"maeMedian":1,"low":17,"high":35,"coverage":true,"width":18,"pitLower":0.355,"pitUpper":0.435,"empiricalMass":0.08,"logScore":2.5257286443082556},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":2.427299999999999,"mean":25.45,"median":23,"bias":1.4499999999999993,"maeMean":1.4499999999999993,"maeMedian":1,"low":12,"high":46,"coverage":true,"width":34,"pitLower":0.505,"pitUpper":0.535,"empiricalMass":0.03,"logScore":3.506557897319982}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"12":0.005,"17":0.005,"19":0.005,"20":0.005,"21":0.005,"24":0.015,"25":0.015,"27":0.005,"28":0.025,"29":0.015,"30":0.03,"31":0.03,"32":0.02,"33":0.03,"34":0.02,"35":0.01,"36":0.045,"37":0.03,"38":0.02,"39":0.02,"40":0.015,"41":0.035,"42":0.02,"43":0.01,"44":0.005,"45":0.02,"46":0.025,"47":0.02,"49":0.025,"50":0.025,"51":0.03,"52":0.01,"53":0.01,"54":0.025,"55":0.015,"56":0.005,"57":0.02,"58":0.01,"60":0.015,"61":0.015,"62":0.005,"64":0.02,"65":0.005,"66":0.01,"67":0.005,"68":0.005,"70":0.01,"71":0.015,"72":0.01,"74":0.025,"75":0.005,"77":0.005,"78":0.01,"80":0.005,"81":0.005,"83":0.01,"84":0.01,"85":0.015,"87":0.005,"89":0.01,"90":0.01,"91":0.005,"93":0.01,"94":0.005,"95":0.005,"98":0.01,"99":0.005,"105":0.005,"109":0.005,"117":0.005,"125":0.01,"140":0.005,"143":0.01,"161":0.005,"195":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"12":0.01,"13":0.01,"14":0.01,"15":0.025,"16":0.04,"17":0.02,"18":0.04,"19":0.03,"20":0.06,"21":0.03,"22":0.05,"23":0.065,"24":0.025,"25":0.055,"26":0.04,"27":0.05,"28":0.055,"29":0.02,"30":0.02,"31":0.035,"32":0.045,"33":0.045,"34":0.02,"35":0.005,"36":0.025,"37":0.03,"38":0.01,"40":0.015,"41":0.01,"42":0.005,"44":0.005,"46":0.025,"47":0.025,"48":0.005,"50":0.005,"55":0.005,"58":0.005,"62":0.005,"69":0.005,"71":0.005,"86":0.005,"87":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"15":0.005,"17":0.01,"20":0.01,"21":0.005,"22":0.005,"23":0.02,"24":0.005,"25":0.015,"26":0.02,"27":0.025,"28":0.01,"29":0.03,"30":0.01,"31":0.015,"32":0.025,"33":0.04,"34":0.045,"35":0.02,"36":0.035,"38":0.005,"39":0.04,"40":0.025,"41":0.02,"42":0.02,"43":0.02,"44":0.01,"45":0.005,"46":0.02,"47":0.01,"48":0.005,"49":0.015,"50":0.01,"51":0.03,"52":0.035,"53":0.005,"54":0.015,"55":0.02,"56":0.01,"57":0.015,"58":0.01,"59":0.01,"60":0.015,"61":0.005,"63":0.02,"64":0.01,"65":0.005,"66":0.015,"67":0.02,"68":0.005,"69":0.01,"70":0.01,"71":0.01,"72":0.01,"73":0.005,"74":0.02,"75":0.005,"77":0.01,"79":0.01,"80":0.005,"82":0.01,"85":0.005,"86":0.005,"88":0.01,"95":0.005,"100":0.005,"101":0.005,"102":0.005,"103":0.01,"106":0.005,"109":0.005,"111":0.005,"115":0.005,"116":0.005,"125":0.005,"138":0.005,"158":0.005,"164":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"32":0.005,"33":0.005,"35":0.01,"36":0.005,"37":0.03,"38":0.005,"39":0.03,"40":0.035,"41":0.035,"42":0.05,"43":0.025,"44":0.04,"45":0.065,"46":0.055,"47":0.06,"48":0.06,"49":0.075,"50":0.06,"51":0.045,"52":0.055,"53":0.035,"54":0.05,"55":0.02,"56":0.055,"57":0.03,"58":0.02,"59":0.005,"60":0.01,"61":0.015,"63":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"15":0.01,"16":0.015,"17":0.035,"18":0.02,"19":0.045,"20":0.055,"21":0.02,"22":0.065,"23":0.09,"24":0.08,"25":0.075,"26":0.075,"27":0.075,"28":0.05,"29":0.02,"30":0.075,"31":0.045,"32":0.045,"33":0.02,"34":0.03,"35":0.015,"36":0.01,"37":0.005,"38":0.005,"39":0.005,"40":0.005,"43":0.005,"45":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"11":0.035,"12":0.03,"13":0.03,"14":0.015,"15":0.045,"16":0.08,"17":0.03,"18":0.035,"19":0.03,"20":0.05,"21":0.04,"22":0.06,"23":0.025,"24":0.03,"25":0.035,"26":0.05,"27":0.03,"28":0.025,"29":0.015,"30":0.04,"31":0.03,"32":0.035,"33":0.005,"34":0.02,"35":0.02,"36":0.02,"37":0.015,"38":0.015,"39":0.005,"40":0.01,"42":0.01,"43":0.01,"44":0.01,"45":0.005,"46":0.015,"47":0.01,"48":0.005,"50":0.005,"51":0.005,"57":0.005,"58":0.005,"62":0.005,"65":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1665532800000,"validUntil":1668124800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":3,"actual":4,"trainingCount":5108,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2022","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":1.1061,"mean":6.49,"median":5,"bias":2.49,"maeMean":2.49,"maeMedian":1,"low":1,"high":16,"coverage":true,"width":15,"pitLower":0.3,"pitUpper":0.43,"empiricalMass":0.13,"logScore":2.0402208285265546},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.6328999999999998,"mean":3.61,"median":3,"bias":-0.3900000000000001,"maeMean":0.3900000000000001,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":8,"coverage":true,"width":8,"pitLower":0.555,"pitUpper":0.72,"empiricalMass":0.165,"logScore":1.8018098050815563},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":1.0601500000000001,"mean":6.12,"median":5,"bias":2.12,"maeMean":2.12,"maeMedian":1,"low":1,"high":15,"coverage":true,"width":14,"pitLower":0.3,"pitUpper":0.435,"empiricalMass":0.135,"logScore":2.0024805005437076},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":1.414,"mean":6.47,"median":6,"bias":2.4699999999999998,"maeMean":2.4699999999999998,"maeMedian":2,"low":3,"high":10,"coverage":true,"width":7,"pitLower":0.12,"pitUpper":0.22,"empiricalMass":0.1,"logScore":2.3025850929940455},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.82465,"mean":2.74,"median":3,"bias":-1.2599999999999998,"maeMean":1.2599999999999998,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":6,"coverage":true,"width":6,"pitLower":0.72,"pitUpper":0.86,"empiricalMass":0.14,"logScore":1.9661128563728327},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.9544249999999999,"mean":2.885,"median":2,"bias":-1.1150000000000002,"maeMean":1.1150000000000002,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":7,"coverage":true,"width":7,"pitLower":0.665,"pitUpper":0.755,"empiricalMass":0.09,"logScore":2.4079456086518722}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.025,"1":0.06,"2":0.08,"3":0.135,"4":0.13,"5":0.095,"6":0.075,"7":0.085,"8":0.085,"9":0.04,"10":0.015,"11":0.045,"12":0.03,"13":0.015,"14":0.01,"15":0.005,"16":0.025,"18":0.005,"19":0.015,"20":0.01,"21":0.005,"23":0.005,"35":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.06,"1":0.15,"2":0.165,"3":0.18,"4":0.165,"5":0.09,"6":0.085,"7":0.025,"8":0.03,"9":0.015,"10":0.01,"11":0.015,"12":0.005,"19":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.03,"1":0.075,"2":0.115,"3":0.08,"4":0.135,"5":0.085,"6":0.135,"7":0.065,"8":0.03,"9":0.06,"10":0.035,"11":0.015,"12":0.05,"13":0.01,"14":0.025,"15":0.02,"16":0.01,"17":0.005,"19":0.01,"22":0.005,"25":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"2":0.045,"3":0.075,"4":0.1,"5":0.15,"6":0.165,"7":0.13,"8":0.12,"9":0.095,"10":0.07,"11":0.025,"12":0.02,"15":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.06,"1":0.18,"2":0.23,"3":0.25,"4":0.14,"5":0.075,"6":0.05,"7":0.005,"8":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.13,"1":0.19,"2":0.23,"3":0.115,"4":0.09,"5":0.1,"6":0.065,"7":0.03,"8":0.03,"9":0.015,"11":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1665532800000,"validUntil":1668124800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":4,"actual":1,"trainingCount":5108,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2022","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.31535,"mean":0.81,"median":0,"bias":-0.18999999999999995,"maeMean":0.18999999999999995,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.525,"pitUpper":0.825,"empiricalMass":0.3,"logScore":1.2039728043259361},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.48377499999999996,"mean":0.475,"median":0,"bias":-0.525,"maeMean":0.525,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.685,"pitUpper":0.885,"empiricalMass":0.2,"logScore":1.6094379124341003},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.37894999999999995,"mean":0.67,"median":0,"bias":-0.32999999999999996,"maeMean":0.32999999999999996,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.59,"pitUpper":0.835,"empiricalMass":0.245,"logScore":1.40649706843741},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.24997499999999995,"mean":0.805,"median":1,"bias":-0.19499999999999995,"maeMean":0.19499999999999995,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.45,"pitUpper":0.785,"empiricalMass":0.335,"logScore":1.0936247471570706},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.34972499999999995,"mean":0.545,"median":0,"bias":-0.45499999999999996,"maeMean":0.45499999999999996,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.58,"pitUpper":0.885,"empiricalMass":0.305,"logScore":1.1874435023747254},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.33432500000000004,"mean":0.545,"median":0,"bias":-0.45499999999999996,"maeMean":0.45499999999999996,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.57,"pitUpper":0.905,"empiricalMass":0.335,"logScore":1.0936247471570706}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.525,"1":0.3,"2":0.09,"3":0.05,"4":0.015,"5":0.005,"6":0.01,"7":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.685,"1":0.2,"2":0.08,"3":0.025,"4":0.01},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.59,"1":0.245,"2":0.115,"3":0.02,"4":0.015,"5":0.015},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.45,"1":0.335,"2":0.18,"3":0.03,"4":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.58,"1":0.305,"2":0.105,"3":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.57,"1":0.335,"2":0.075,"3":0.02}}},{"issuedAt":1668124800000,"validUntil":1668211200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":2,"actual":1,"trainingCount":5132,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2022","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.304725,"mean":1.025,"median":1,"bias":0.02499999999999991,"maeMean":0.02499999999999991,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.485,"pitUpper":0.78,"empiricalMass":0.295,"logScore":1.2207799226423173},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.291775,"mean":0.845,"median":0,"bias":-0.15500000000000003,"maeMean":0.15500000000000003,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.505,"pitUpper":0.83,"empiricalMass":0.325,"logScore":1.1239300966523995},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.3439,"mean":1.29,"median":1,"bias":0.29000000000000004,"maeMean":0.29000000000000004,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.46,"pitUpper":0.71,"empiricalMass":0.25,"logScore":1.3862943611198906},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.3320749999999999,"mean":1.625,"median":1,"bias":0.625,"maeMean":0.625,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.22,"pitUpper":0.53,"empiricalMass":0.31,"logScore":1.171182981502945},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.22254999999999997,"mean":0.83,"median":1,"bias":-0.17000000000000004,"maeMean":0.17000000000000004,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.43,"pitUpper":0.815,"empiricalMass":0.385,"logScore":0.9545119446943529},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.27259999999999995,"mean":0.9,"median":1,"bias":-0.09999999999999998,"maeMean":0.09999999999999998,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.46,"pitUpper":0.77,"empiricalMass":0.31,"logScore":1.171182981502945}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.485,"1":0.295,"2":0.1,"3":0.055,"4":0.025,"5":0.015,"6":0.015,"7":0.005,"13":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.505,"1":0.325,"2":0.095,"3":0.035,"4":0.02,"5":0.015,"14":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.46,"1":0.25,"2":0.115,"3":0.07,"4":0.05,"5":0.02,"7":0.01,"8":0.01,"10":0.015},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.22,"1":0.31,"2":0.24,"3":0.135,"4":0.07,"5":0.015,"7":0.005,"8":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.43,"1":0.385,"2":0.13,"3":0.035,"4":0.02},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.46,"1":0.31,"2":0.145,"3":0.06,"4":0.01,"5":0.01,"6":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1668124800000,"validUntil":1668211200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":3,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5132,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2022","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.010024999999999992,"mean":0.105,"median":0,"bias":0.105,"maeMean":0.105,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.9,"empiricalMass":0.9,"logScore":0.10536051565782628},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.011675000000000005,"mean":0.135,"median":0,"bias":0.135,"maeMean":0.135,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.895,"empiricalMass":0.895,"logScore":0.11093156070728166},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.02152499999999999,"mean":0.175,"median":0,"bias":0.175,"maeMean":0.175,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.855,"empiricalMass":0.855,"logScore":0.15665381004537685},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.06919999999999998,"mean":0.3,"median":0,"bias":0.3,"maeMean":0.3,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.74,"empiricalMass":0.74,"logScore":0.3011050927839216},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.011024999999999993,"mean":0.105,"median":0,"bias":0.105,"maeMean":0.105,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.895,"empiricalMass":0.895,"logScore":0.11093156070728166},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.004275000000000001,"mean":0.075,"median":0,"bias":0.075,"maeMean":0.075,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.935,"empiricalMass":0.935,"logScore":0.06720874969344999}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.9,"1":0.095,"2":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.895,"1":0.08,"2":0.02,"3":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.855,"1":0.125,"2":0.01,"3":0.01},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.74,"1":0.22,"2":0.04},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.895,"1":0.105},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.935,"1":0.06,"3":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1668124800000,"validUntil":1668211200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5132,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2022","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.0000499999999999997,"mean":0.01,"median":0,"bias":0.01,"maeMean":0.01,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.995,"empiricalMass":0.995,"logScore":0.005012541823544286},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.0002500000000000002,"mean":0.02,"median":0,"bias":0.02,"maeMean":0.02,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.985,"empiricalMass":0.985,"logScore":0.015113637810048184},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.0010000000000000009,"mean":0.04,"median":0,"bias":0.04,"maeMean":0.04,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.97,"empiricalMass":0.97,"logScore":0.030459207484708574},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.0012500000000000011,"mean":0.04,"median":0,"bias":0.04,"maeMean":0.04,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.965,"empiricalMass":0.965,"logScore":0.03562717764315116},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.0002500000000000002,"mean":0.02,"median":0,"bias":0.02,"maeMean":0.02,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.985,"empiricalMass":0.985,"logScore":0.015113637810048184},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.0001250000000000001,"mean":0.015,"median":0,"bias":0.015,"maeMean":0.015,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.99,"empiricalMass":0.99,"logScore":0.01005033585350145}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.995,"2":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.985,"1":0.01,"2":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.97,"1":0.02,"2":0.01},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.965,"1":0.03,"2":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.985,"1":0.01,"2":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.99,"1":0.005,"2":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1668124800000,"validUntil":1668729600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":2,"actual":4,"trainingCount":5132,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2022","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":2.411725,"mean":9.635,"median":7,"bias":5.635,"maeMean":5.635,"maeMedian":3,"low":2,"high":22,"coverage":true,"width":20,"pitLower":0.12,"pitUpper":0.195,"empiricalMass":0.075,"logScore":2.5902671654458267},"rollingETAS":{"crps":1.1216249999999999,"mean":6.445,"median":6,"bias":2.4450000000000003,"maeMean":2.4450000000000003,"maeMedian":2,"low":2,"high":14,"coverage":true,"width":12,"pitLower":0.235,"pitUpper":0.36,"empiricalMass":0.125,"logScore":2.0794415416798357},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":2.933275,"mean":10.905,"median":8,"bias":6.904999999999999,"maeMean":6.904999999999999,"maeMedian":4,"low":3,"high":31,"coverage":true,"width":28,"pitLower":0.11,"pitUpper":0.18,"empiricalMass":0.07,"logScore":2.659260036932778},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":4.998475,"mean":10.845,"median":10,"bias":6.845000000000001,"maeMean":6.845000000000001,"maeMedian":6,"low":6,"high":17,"coverage":false,"width":11,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.005,"empiricalMass":0.005,"logScore":5.298317366548036},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.9696750000000001,"mean":5.775,"median":6,"bias":1.7750000000000004,"maeMean":1.7750000000000004,"maeMedian":2,"low":2,"high":10,"coverage":true,"width":8,"pitLower":0.155,"pitUpper":0.31,"empiricalMass":0.155,"logScore":1.8643301620628905},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":1.0515500000000002,"mean":5.9,"median":5,"bias":1.9000000000000004,"maeMean":1.9000000000000004,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":16,"coverage":true,"width":16,"pitLower":0.355,"pitUpper":0.465,"empiricalMass":0.11,"logScore":2.2072749131897207}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.015,"1":0.005,"2":0.05,"3":0.05,"4":0.075,"5":0.105,"6":0.11,"7":0.105,"8":0.065,"9":0.075,"10":0.045,"11":0.025,"12":0.05,"13":0.03,"14":0.015,"15":0.025,"16":0.035,"17":0.02,"18":0.015,"19":0.01,"20":0.005,"21":0.01,"22":0.01,"23":0.005,"25":0.005,"27":0.005,"28":0.01,"33":0.005,"41":0.005,"43":0.005,"49":0.005,"58":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.01,"1":0.03,"2":0.07,"3":0.125,"4":0.125,"5":0.1,"6":0.155,"7":0.11,"8":0.05,"9":0.045,"10":0.04,"11":0.035,"12":0.035,"13":0.015,"14":0.015,"15":0.01,"18":0.005,"19":0.005,"20":0.005,"22":0.005,"24":0.01},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.005,"1":0.01,"2":0.02,"3":0.075,"4":0.07,"5":0.09,"6":0.07,"7":0.08,"8":0.095,"9":0.055,"10":0.07,"11":0.05,"12":0.055,"13":0.02,"14":0.04,"15":0.04,"16":0.025,"17":0.015,"18":0.02,"19":0.01,"21":0.005,"22":0.01,"27":0.015,"31":0.01,"32":0.005,"34":0.005,"35":0.005,"39":0.005,"45":0.005,"49":0.005,"58":0.01,"68":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"4":0.005,"5":0.03,"6":0.035,"7":0.075,"8":0.13,"9":0.09,"10":0.16,"11":0.065,"12":0.12,"13":0.085,"14":0.065,"15":0.05,"16":0.03,"17":0.03,"18":0.015,"19":0.005,"20":0.005,"23":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"1":0.025,"2":0.04,"3":0.09,"4":0.155,"5":0.18,"6":0.125,"7":0.195,"8":0.07,"9":0.06,"10":0.015,"11":0.03,"12":0.01,"13":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.06,"1":0.075,"2":0.1,"3":0.12,"4":0.11,"5":0.1,"6":0.06,"7":0.06,"8":0.085,"9":0.05,"10":0.04,"11":0.045,"12":0.02,"13":0.015,"14":0.005,"16":0.015,"18":0.02,"19":0.005,"20":0.005,"21":0.005,"23":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1668124800000,"validUntil":1668729600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":3,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5132,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2022","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.3860000000000001,"mean":1.12,"median":1,"bias":1.12,"maeMean":1.12,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.46,"empiricalMass":0.46,"logScore":0.7765287894989963},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.23017499999999996,"mean":0.725,"median":0,"bias":0.725,"maeMean":0.725,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.56,"empiricalMass":0.56,"logScore":0.579818495252942},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.46630000000000005,"mean":1.3,"median":1,"bias":1.3,"maeMean":1.3,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.43,"empiricalMass":0.43,"logScore":0.843970070294529},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.751875,"mean":1.385,"median":1,"bias":1.385,"maeMean":1.385,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.265,"empiricalMass":0.265,"logScore":1.3280254529959148},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.35857500000000003,"mean":0.805,"median":1,"bias":0.805,"maeMean":0.805,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.435,"empiricalMass":0.435,"logScore":0.8324092478934529},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.26802499999999996,"mean":0.825,"median":0,"bias":0.825,"maeMean":0.825,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.55,"empiricalMass":0.55,"logScore":0.5978370007556204}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.46,"1":0.27,"2":0.15,"3":0.06,"4":0.015,"5":0.025,"7":0.005,"10":0.015},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.56,"1":0.26,"2":0.125,"3":0.025,"4":0.015,"5":0.01,"6":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.43,"1":0.24,"2":0.19,"3":0.065,"4":0.015,"5":0.015,"6":0.015,"7":0.005,"8":0.02,"13":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.265,"1":0.31,"2":0.255,"3":0.125,"4":0.035,"5":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.435,"1":0.37,"2":0.16,"3":0.025,"4":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.55,"1":0.22,"2":0.125,"3":0.065,"4":0.04}}},{"issuedAt":1668124800000,"validUntil":1668729600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5132,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2022","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.013575000000000004,"mean":0.145,"median":0,"bias":0.145,"maeMean":0.145,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.885,"empiricalMass":0.885,"logScore":0.12216763397420753},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.0043249999999999955,"mean":0.075,"median":0,"bias":0.075,"maeMean":0.075,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.935,"empiricalMass":0.935,"logScore":0.06720874969344999},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.023175,"mean":0.195,"median":0,"bias":0.195,"maeMean":0.195,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.85,"empiricalMass":0.85,"logScore":0.16251892949777494},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.024425000000000002,"mean":0.175,"median":0,"bias":0.175,"maeMean":0.175,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.845,"empiricalMass":0.845,"logScore":0.16841865162496325},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.013325000000000004,"mean":0.125,"median":0,"bias":0.125,"maeMean":0.125,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.885,"empiricalMass":0.885,"logScore":0.12216763397420753},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.013650000000000023,"mean":0.14,"median":0,"bias":0.14,"maeMean":0.14,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.885,"empiricalMass":0.885,"logScore":0.12216763397420753}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.885,"1":0.1,"2":0.005,"3":0.005,"4":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.935,"1":0.055,"2":0.01},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.85,"1":0.13,"2":0.005,"3":0.01,"5":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.845,"1":0.135,"2":0.02},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.885,"1":0.105,"2":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.885,"1":0.095,"2":0.015,"3":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1668124800000,"validUntil":1670716800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":2,"actual":41,"trainingCount":5132,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2022","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":5.060575000000002,"mean":53.285,"median":45,"bias":12.284999999999997,"maeMean":12.284999999999997,"maeMedian":4,"low":25,"high":102,"coverage":true,"width":77,"pitLower":0.365,"pitUpper":0.41,"empiricalMass":0.045,"logScore":3.101092789211817},"rollingETAS":{"crps":8.752374999999999,"mean":29.635,"median":27,"bias":-11.364999999999998,"maeMean":11.364999999999998,"maeMedian":14,"low":14,"high":55,"coverage":true,"width":41,"pitLower":0.875,"pitUpper":0.895,"empiricalMass":0.02,"logScore":3.912023005428146},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":6.099525000000002,"mean":53.085,"median":47,"bias":12.085,"maeMean":12.085,"maeMedian":6,"low":25,"high":94,"coverage":true,"width":69,"pitLower":0.37,"pitUpper":0.38,"empiricalMass":0.01,"logScore":4.605170185988091},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":3.7161000000000004,"mean":47.19,"median":47,"bias":6.189999999999998,"maeMean":6.189999999999998,"maeMedian":6,"low":37,"high":58,"coverage":true,"width":21,"pitLower":0.135,"pitUpper":0.16,"empiricalMass":0.025,"logScore":3.6888794541139363},"recentPoisson":{"crps":13.151275,"mean":25.075,"median":24,"bias":-15.925,"maeMean":15.925,"maeMedian":17,"low":17,"high":34,"coverage":false,"width":17,"pitLower":1,"pitUpper":1,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":10.235199999999999,"mean":25.81,"median":25,"bias":-15.190000000000001,"maeMean":15.190000000000001,"maeMedian":16,"low":10,"high":45,"coverage":true,"width":35,"pitLower":0.875,"pitUpper":0.895,"empiricalMass":0.02,"logScore":3.912023005428146}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"15":0.005,"18":0.015,"20":0.01,"22":0.005,"23":0.005,"24":0.005,"25":0.01,"26":0.015,"27":0.005,"28":0.01,"29":0.03,"30":0.015,"31":0.02,"32":0.03,"33":0.025,"34":0.025,"35":0.03,"36":0.01,"37":0.005,"38":0.04,"39":0.025,"40":0.025,"41":0.045,"42":0.02,"43":0.04,"44":0.02,"45":0.02,"46":0.025,"47":0.01,"48":0.025,"49":0.02,"50":0.015,"51":0.015,"52":0.02,"53":0.01,"54":0.02,"55":0.01,"56":0.02,"57":0.015,"58":0.005,"59":0.01,"60":0.01,"62":0.015,"63":0.005,"65":0.01,"66":0.025,"67":0.02,"68":0.005,"69":0.01,"70":0.015,"74":0.005,"76":0.005,"77":0.005,"78":0.005,"79":0.005,"81":0.005,"82":0.01,"85":0.005,"86":0.005,"87":0.005,"88":0.005,"90":0.005,"92":0.005,"97":0.01,"98":0.005,"99":0.005,"101":0.01,"102":0.005,"103":0.005,"108":0.005,"115":0.005,"122":0.005,"129":0.005,"140":0.005,"147":0.005,"161":0.005,"195":0.005,"239":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"11":0.005,"12":0.005,"13":0.02,"14":0.02,"15":0.015,"16":0.04,"17":0.01,"18":0.02,"19":0.025,"20":0.05,"21":0.055,"22":0.03,"23":0.045,"24":0.04,"25":0.065,"26":0.04,"27":0.02,"28":0.055,"29":0.07,"30":0.03,"31":0.03,"32":0.025,"33":0.01,"34":0.015,"35":0.045,"36":0.02,"37":0.03,"38":0.02,"39":0.015,"40":0.005,"41":0.02,"42":0.02,"43":0.005,"45":0.01,"49":0.005,"53":0.01,"55":0.005,"60":0.005,"64":0.005,"65":0.005,"66":0.005,"68":0.005,"69":0.005,"72":0.005,"91":0.005,"93":0.005,"98":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"13":0.005,"14":0.005,"20":0.01,"23":0.005,"24":0.02,"25":0.02,"26":0.02,"27":0.02,"28":0.015,"29":0.02,"30":0.025,"31":0.03,"32":0.015,"33":0.02,"34":0.015,"35":0.005,"36":0.025,"37":0.025,"38":0.02,"39":0.025,"40":0.025,"41":0.01,"42":0.025,"43":0.015,"45":0.04,"46":0.03,"47":0.015,"48":0.005,"49":0.015,"50":0.015,"51":0.025,"52":0.01,"53":0.025,"54":0.005,"55":0.015,"56":0.025,"57":0.01,"58":0.02,"59":0.015,"60":0.005,"61":0.01,"62":0.015,"63":0.015,"65":0.005,"66":0.02,"67":0.02,"68":0.015,"72":0.02,"73":0.005,"74":0.01,"75":0.015,"76":0.005,"77":0.01,"78":0.015,"79":0.01,"80":0.005,"81":0.01,"82":0.015,"83":0.005,"90":0.01,"91":0.005,"92":0.005,"93":0.005,"94":0.005,"97":0.005,"98":0.005,"106":0.005,"113":0.005,"118":0.005,"122":0.005,"130":0.005,"139":0.005,"167":0.005,"192":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"33":0.015,"35":0.005,"36":0.02,"37":0.035,"38":0.025,"39":0.025,"40":0.01,"41":0.025,"42":0.05,"43":0.055,"44":0.055,"45":0.07,"46":0.045,"47":0.12,"48":0.075,"49":0.05,"50":0.055,"51":0.065,"52":0.025,"53":0.035,"54":0.015,"55":0.025,"56":0.025,"57":0.005,"58":0.025,"59":0.005,"61":0.01,"62":0.015,"63":0.005,"64":0.005,"70":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"14":0.015,"15":0.01,"16":0.005,"17":0.035,"18":0.01,"19":0.045,"20":0.03,"21":0.07,"22":0.08,"23":0.09,"24":0.125,"25":0.07,"26":0.08,"27":0.05,"28":0.05,"29":0.035,"30":0.055,"31":0.03,"32":0.045,"33":0.015,"34":0.01,"35":0.015,"36":0.005,"37":0.005,"38":0.015,"39":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"5":0.01,"7":0.005,"8":0.015,"10":0.02,"11":0.02,"12":0.035,"13":0.02,"14":0.025,"15":0.055,"16":0.015,"17":0.03,"18":0.04,"19":0.04,"20":0.01,"21":0.015,"22":0.035,"23":0.06,"24":0.035,"25":0.025,"26":0.035,"27":0.055,"28":0.03,"29":0.035,"30":0.025,"31":0.04,"32":0.02,"33":0.02,"34":0.025,"35":0.025,"36":0.025,"37":0.02,"38":0.005,"40":0.005,"41":0.02,"42":0.015,"43":0.01,"44":0.025,"45":0.015,"46":0.015,"48":0.01,"49":0.005,"51":0.005,"70":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1668124800000,"validUntil":1670716800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":3,"actual":7,"trainingCount":5132,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2022","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":1.1928999999999998,"mean":6.75,"median":5,"bias":-0.25,"maeMean":0.25,"maeMedian":2,"low":1,"high":16,"coverage":true,"width":15,"pitLower":0.595,"pitUpper":0.655,"empiricalMass":0.06,"logScore":2.8134107167600364},"rollingETAS":{"crps":2.3334,"mean":3.79,"median":3,"bias":-3.21,"maeMean":3.21,"maeMedian":4,"low":0,"high":9,"coverage":true,"width":9,"pitLower":0.865,"pitUpper":0.92,"empiricalMass":0.055,"logScore":2.900422093749666},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":1.0823,"mean":6.62,"median":6,"bias":-0.3799999999999999,"maeMean":0.3799999999999999,"maeMedian":1,"low":1,"high":14,"coverage":true,"width":13,"pitLower":0.58,"pitUpper":0.67,"empiricalMass":0.09,"logScore":2.4079456086518722},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.63455,"mean":6.31,"median":6,"bias":-0.6900000000000004,"maeMean":0.6900000000000004,"maeMedian":1,"low":3,"high":10,"coverage":true,"width":7,"pitLower":0.545,"pitUpper":0.72,"empiricalMass":0.175,"logScore":1.742969305058623},"recentPoisson":{"crps":2.934525,"mean":3.075,"median":3,"bias":-3.925,"maeMean":3.925,"maeMedian":4,"low":0,"high":6,"coverage":false,"width":6,"pitLower":0.955,"pitUpper":0.98,"empiricalMass":0.025,"logScore":3.6888794541139363},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":2.943225,"mean":2.985,"median":2.5,"bias":-4.015000000000001,"maeMean":4.015000000000001,"maeMedian":4.5,"low":0,"high":7,"coverage":true,"width":7,"pitLower":0.91,"pitUpper":0.96,"empiricalMass":0.05,"logScore":2.995732273553991}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.03,"1":0.055,"2":0.075,"3":0.08,"4":0.125,"5":0.165,"6":0.065,"7":0.06,"8":0.06,"9":0.065,"10":0.04,"11":0.035,"12":0.04,"13":0.025,"14":0.01,"15":0.01,"16":0.015,"17":0.015,"19":0.015,"21":0.005,"31":0.005,"37":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.055,"1":0.145,"2":0.16,"3":0.16,"4":0.195,"5":0.07,"6":0.08,"7":0.055,"8":0.015,"9":0.025,"10":0.01,"12":0.01,"13":0.005,"14":0.01,"16":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.03,"1":0.04,"2":0.06,"3":0.13,"4":0.125,"5":0.08,"6":0.115,"7":0.09,"8":0.05,"9":0.06,"10":0.06,"11":0.045,"12":0.03,"13":0.02,"14":0.025,"15":0.015,"18":0.005,"19":0.005,"21":0.005,"26":0.005,"40":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"1":0.005,"2":0.035,"3":0.055,"4":0.14,"5":0.16,"6":0.15,"7":0.175,"8":0.115,"9":0.08,"10":0.04,"11":0.025,"12":0.005,"13":0.005,"14":0.005,"15":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.05,"1":0.165,"2":0.24,"3":0.165,"4":0.165,"5":0.09,"6":0.08,"7":0.025,"8":0.01,"9":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.09,"1":0.22,"2":0.19,"3":0.165,"4":0.1,"5":0.09,"6":0.055,"7":0.05,"8":0.015,"9":0.01,"10":0.015}}},{"issuedAt":1668124800000,"validUntil":1670716800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":4,"actual":2,"trainingCount":5132,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2022","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":1.017,"mean":0.77,"median":0,"bias":-1.23,"maeMean":1.23,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.84,"pitUpper":0.915,"empiricalMass":0.075,"logScore":2.5902671654458267},"rollingETAS":{"crps":1.2646,"mean":0.48,"median":0,"bias":-1.52,"maeMean":1.52,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.895,"pitUpper":0.97,"empiricalMass":0.075,"logScore":2.5902671654458267},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.8802499999999999,"mean":0.82,"median":1,"bias":-1.1800000000000002,"maeMean":1.1800000000000002,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.81,"pitUpper":0.95,"empiricalMass":0.14,"logScore":1.9661128563728327},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.90395,"mean":0.78,"median":1,"bias":-1.22,"maeMean":1.22,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.835,"pitUpper":0.935,"empiricalMass":0.1,"logScore":2.3025850929940455},"recentPoisson":{"crps":1.046475,"mean":0.625,"median":0,"bias":-1.375,"maeMean":1.375,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.865,"pitUpper":0.965,"empiricalMass":0.1,"logScore":2.3025850929940455},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":1.07455,"mean":0.6,"median":0,"bias":-1.4,"maeMean":1.4,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.875,"pitUpper":0.97,"empiricalMass":0.095,"logScore":2.353878387381596}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.55,"1":0.29,"2":0.075,"3":0.05,"4":0.02,"5":0.005,"7":0.005,"8":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.68,"1":0.215,"2":0.075,"3":0.015,"4":0.01,"6":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.47,"1":0.34,"2":0.14,"3":0.03,"4":0.005,"5":0.005,"6":0.005,"7":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.45,"1":0.385,"2":0.1,"3":0.065},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.545,"1":0.32,"2":0.1,"3":0.035},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.555,"1":0.32,"2":0.095,"3":0.03}}},{"issuedAt":1670716800000,"validUntil":1670803200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":2,"actual":1,"trainingCount":5173,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2022","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.3641,"mean":1.31,"median":1,"bias":0.31000000000000005,"maeMean":0.31000000000000005,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.455,"pitUpper":0.685,"empiricalMass":0.23,"logScore":1.4696759700589417},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.2715749999999999,"mean":0.875,"median":1,"bias":-0.125,"maeMean":0.125,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.47,"pitUpper":0.795,"empiricalMass":0.325,"logScore":1.1239300966523995},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.31852500000000006,"mean":1.445,"median":1,"bias":0.44500000000000006,"maeMean":0.44500000000000006,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.375,"pitUpper":0.655,"empiricalMass":0.28,"logScore":1.2729656758128873},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.27002499999999996,"mean":1.455,"median":1,"bias":0.45500000000000007,"maeMean":0.45500000000000007,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.21,"pitUpper":0.56,"empiricalMass":0.35,"logScore":1.0498221244986778},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.2147,"mean":0.82,"median":1,"bias":-0.18000000000000005,"maeMean":0.18000000000000005,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.415,"pitUpper":0.795,"empiricalMass":0.38,"logScore":0.9675840262617056},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.31035,"mean":0.92,"median":0.5,"bias":-0.07999999999999996,"maeMean":0.07999999999999996,"maeMedian":0.5,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.5,"pitUpper":0.785,"empiricalMass":0.285,"logScore":1.2552660987134867}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.455,"1":0.23,"2":0.11,"3":0.095,"4":0.06,"5":0.025,"6":0.005,"7":0.015,"15":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.47,"1":0.325,"2":0.115,"3":0.07,"4":0.015,"10":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.375,"1":0.28,"2":0.135,"3":0.12,"4":0.025,"5":0.03,"6":0.01,"7":0.01,"9":0.005,"10":0.005,"12":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.21,"1":0.35,"2":0.265,"3":0.135,"4":0.03,"5":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.415,"1":0.38,"2":0.185,"3":0.015,"5":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.5,"1":0.285,"2":0.11,"3":0.06,"4":0.02,"5":0.005,"6":0.015,"8":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1670716800000,"validUntil":1670803200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":3,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5173,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2022","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.01697499999999999,"mean":0.175,"median":0,"bias":0.175,"maeMean":0.175,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.875,"empiricalMass":0.875,"logScore":0.13353139262452263},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.0023249999999999937,"mean":0.075,"median":0,"bias":0.075,"maeMean":0.075,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.955,"empiricalMass":0.955,"logScore":0.046043938501406846},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.010650000000000007,"mean":0.13,"median":0,"bias":0.13,"maeMean":0.13,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.9,"empiricalMass":0.9,"logScore":0.10536051565782628},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.03242500000000001,"mean":0.185,"median":0,"bias":0.185,"maeMean":0.185,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.82,"empiricalMass":0.82,"logScore":0.19845093872383832},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.017000000000000015,"mean":0.14,"median":0,"bias":0.14,"maeMean":0.14,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.87,"empiricalMass":0.87,"logScore":0.13926206733350766},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.010399999999999993,"mean":0.12,"median":0,"bias":0.12,"maeMean":0.12,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.9,"empiricalMass":0.9,"logScore":0.10536051565782628}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.875,"1":0.09,"2":0.025,"3":0.005,"4":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.955,"1":0.03,"2":0.01,"5":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.9,"1":0.075,"2":0.02,"3":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.82,"1":0.175,"2":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.87,"1":0.12,"2":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.9,"1":0.08,"2":0.02}}},{"issuedAt":1670716800000,"validUntil":1670803200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5173,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2022","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.00002499999999999985,"mean":0.005,"median":0,"bias":0.005,"maeMean":0.005,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.995,"empiricalMass":0.995,"logScore":0.005012541823544286},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.00002499999999999985,"mean":0.005,"median":0,"bias":0.005,"maeMean":0.005,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.995,"empiricalMass":0.995,"logScore":0.005012541823544286},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.00042500000000000177,"mean":0.025,"median":0,"bias":0.025,"maeMean":0.025,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.98,"empiricalMass":0.98,"logScore":0.020202707317519466},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.000899999999999998,"mean":0.03,"median":0,"bias":0.03,"maeMean":0.03,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.97,"empiricalMass":0.97,"logScore":0.030459207484708574},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.00002499999999999985,"mean":0.005,"median":0,"bias":0.005,"maeMean":0.005,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.995,"empiricalMass":0.995,"logScore":0.005012541823544286},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.0000999999999999994,"mean":0.01,"median":0,"bias":0.01,"maeMean":0.01,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.99,"empiricalMass":0.99,"logScore":0.01005033585350145}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.995,"1":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.995,"1":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.98,"1":0.015,"2":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.97,"1":0.03},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.995,"1":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.99,"1":0.01}}},{"issuedAt":1670716800000,"validUntil":1671321600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":2,"actual":3,"trainingCount":5173,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2022","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":4.551849999999999,"mean":11.46,"median":9.5,"bias":8.46,"maeMean":8.46,"maeMedian":6.5,"low":3,"high":26,"coverage":true,"width":23,"pitLower":0.03,"pitUpper":0.07,"empiricalMass":0.04,"logScore":3.2188758248682006},"rollingETAS":{"crps":2.0517000000000003,"mean":7.15,"median":6,"bias":4.15,"maeMean":4.15,"maeMedian":3,"low":2,"high":15,"coverage":true,"width":13,"pitLower":0.105,"pitUpper":0.19,"empiricalMass":0.085,"logScore":2.4651040224918206},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":4.311125,"mean":11.645,"median":9,"bias":8.645,"maeMean":8.645,"maeMedian":6,"low":3,"high":33,"coverage":true,"width":30,"pitLower":0.035,"pitUpper":0.07,"empiricalMass":0.035,"logScore":3.3524072174927233},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":6.669649999999999,"mean":11.45,"median":11,"bias":8.45,"maeMean":8.45,"maeMedian":8,"low":7,"high":17,"coverage":false,"width":10,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentPoisson":{"crps":1.8240500000000002,"mean":6.05,"median":6,"bias":3.05,"maeMean":3.05,"maeMedian":3,"low":3,"high":10,"coverage":true,"width":7,"pitLower":0.045,"pitUpper":0.145,"empiricalMass":0.1,"logScore":2.3025850929940455},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":1.4364000000000003,"mean":5.99,"median":6,"bias":2.99,"maeMean":2.99,"maeMedian":3,"low":0,"high":14,"coverage":true,"width":14,"pitLower":0.25,"pitUpper":0.37,"empiricalMass":0.12,"logScore":2.120263536200091}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"1":0.01,"2":0.02,"3":0.04,"4":0.055,"5":0.075,"6":0.09,"7":0.075,"8":0.06,"9":0.075,"10":0.05,"11":0.075,"12":0.04,"13":0.045,"14":0.05,"15":0.045,"16":0.02,"17":0.005,"18":0.015,"19":0.015,"20":0.03,"21":0.015,"23":0.02,"24":0.01,"25":0.01,"26":0.005,"27":0.015,"28":0.005,"31":0.005,"33":0.005,"37":0.005,"43":0.005,"47":0.005,"51":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.01,"1":0.025,"2":0.07,"3":0.085,"4":0.13,"5":0.09,"6":0.115,"7":0.095,"8":0.1,"9":0.055,"10":0.06,"11":0.025,"12":0.04,"13":0.03,"14":0.01,"15":0.01,"16":0.015,"17":0.005,"19":0.005,"21":0.005,"23":0.005,"24":0.005,"28":0.005,"35":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.005,"1":0.005,"2":0.025,"3":0.035,"4":0.09,"5":0.085,"6":0.07,"7":0.055,"8":0.08,"9":0.07,"10":0.08,"11":0.04,"12":0.04,"13":0.045,"14":0.025,"15":0.04,"16":0.03,"17":0.025,"18":0.01,"19":0.015,"21":0.015,"22":0.01,"24":0.01,"25":0.01,"26":0.015,"27":0.01,"28":0.005,"33":0.005,"34":0.005,"35":0.005,"36":0.01,"37":0.005,"38":0.005,"39":0.005,"41":0.005,"51":0.005,"55":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"4":0.005,"5":0.01,"6":0.015,"7":0.08,"8":0.08,"9":0.085,"10":0.115,"11":0.17,"12":0.095,"13":0.085,"14":0.105,"15":0.055,"16":0.02,"17":0.045,"18":0.015,"19":0.01,"22":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.005,"2":0.04,"3":0.1,"4":0.135,"5":0.135,"6":0.205,"7":0.16,"8":0.055,"9":0.08,"10":0.035,"11":0.03,"12":0.01,"13":0.005,"16":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.07,"1":0.07,"2":0.11,"3":0.12,"4":0.08,"5":0.045,"6":0.1,"7":0.085,"8":0.08,"9":0.06,"10":0.07,"11":0.025,"12":0.01,"13":0.01,"14":0.015,"15":0.01,"18":0.01,"19":0.01,"20":0.005,"23":0.01,"27":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1670716800000,"validUntil":1671321600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":3,"actual":1,"trainingCount":5173,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2022","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.312225,"mean":1.355,"median":1,"bias":0.355,"maeMean":0.355,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.385,"pitUpper":0.655,"empiricalMass":0.27,"logScore":1.3093333199837622},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.32230000000000003,"mean":0.94,"median":1,"bias":-0.06000000000000005,"maeMean":0.06000000000000005,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.495,"pitUpper":0.74,"empiricalMass":0.245,"logScore":1.40649706843741},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.293075,"mean":1.405,"median":1,"bias":0.405,"maeMean":0.405,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.35,"pitUpper":0.645,"empiricalMass":0.295,"logScore":1.2207799226423173},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.28927499999999995,"mean":1.585,"median":1,"bias":0.585,"maeMean":0.585,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.145,"pitUpper":0.52,"empiricalMass":0.375,"logScore":0.9808292530117262},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.277975,"mean":0.785,"median":1,"bias":-0.21499999999999997,"maeMean":0.21499999999999997,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.485,"pitUpper":0.8,"empiricalMass":0.315,"logScore":1.155182640156504},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.30822499999999997,"mean":0.835,"median":0,"bias":-0.16500000000000004,"maeMean":0.16500000000000004,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.515,"pitUpper":0.815,"empiricalMass":0.3,"logScore":1.2039728043259361}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.385,"1":0.27,"2":0.16,"3":0.1,"4":0.04,"5":0.02,"6":0.005,"7":0.005,"9":0.01,"10":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.495,"1":0.245,"2":0.175,"3":0.05,"4":0.005,"5":0.015,"6":0.005,"7":0.01},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.35,"1":0.295,"2":0.19,"3":0.065,"4":0.025,"5":0.035,"6":0.035,"10":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.145,"1":0.375,"2":0.295,"3":0.125,"4":0.055,"5":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.485,"1":0.315,"2":0.15,"3":0.035,"4":0.01,"5":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.515,"1":0.3,"2":0.105,"3":0.045,"4":0.005,"5":0.015,"6":0.01,"7":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1670716800000,"validUntil":1671321600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":4,"actual":1,"trainingCount":5173,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2022","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.783475,"mean":0.135,"median":0,"bias":-0.865,"maeMean":0.865,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0.885,"pitUpper":0.985,"empiricalMass":0.1,"logScore":2.3025850929940455},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.8468,"mean":0.1,"median":0,"bias":-0.9,"maeMean":0.9,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0.92,"pitUpper":0.98,"empiricalMass":0.06,"logScore":2.8134107167600364},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.75795,"mean":0.18,"median":0,"bias":-0.8200000000000001,"maeMean":0.8200000000000001,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0.87,"pitUpper":0.97,"empiricalMass":0.1,"logScore":2.3025850929940455},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.6812499999999999,"mean":0.2,"median":0,"bias":-0.8,"maeMean":0.8,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0.825,"pitUpper":0.975,"empiricalMass":0.15,"logScore":1.8971199848858813},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.731275,"mean":0.165,"median":0,"bias":-0.835,"maeMean":0.835,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0.855,"pitUpper":0.985,"empiricalMass":0.13,"logScore":2.0402208285265546},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.774625,"mean":0.135,"median":0,"bias":-0.865,"maeMean":0.865,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0.88,"pitUpper":0.985,"empiricalMass":0.105,"logScore":2.2537949288246137}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.885,"1":0.1,"2":0.01,"3":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.92,"1":0.06,"2":0.02},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.87,"1":0.1,"2":0.02,"3":0.005,"5":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.825,"1":0.15,"2":0.025},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.855,"1":0.13,"2":0.01,"3":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.88,"1":0.105,"2":0.015}}},{"issuedAt":1670716800000,"validUntil":1673308800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":2,"actual":29,"trainingCount":5173,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2022","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":13.362124999999999,"mean":55.755,"median":47.5,"bias":26.755000000000003,"maeMean":26.755000000000003,"maeMedian":18.5,"low":23,"high":108,"coverage":true,"width":85,"pitLower":0.09,"pitUpper":0.095,"empiricalMass":0.005,"logScore":5.298317366548036},"rollingETAS":{"crps":2.386075000000001,"mean":30.255,"median":28,"bias":1.254999999999999,"maeMean":1.254999999999999,"maeMedian":1,"low":16,"high":53,"coverage":true,"width":37,"pitLower":0.505,"pitUpper":0.53,"empiricalMass":0.025,"logScore":3.6888794541139363},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":13.216075000000002,"mean":53.755,"median":48,"bias":24.755000000000003,"maeMean":24.755000000000003,"maeMedian":19,"low":26,"high":105,"coverage":true,"width":79,"pitLower":0.09,"pitUpper":0.1,"empiricalMass":0.01,"logScore":4.605170185988091},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":14.962999999999997,"mean":47.99,"median":48,"bias":18.990000000000002,"maeMean":18.990000000000002,"maeMedian":19,"low":37,"high":60,"coverage":false,"width":23,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentPoisson":{"crps":1.805275,"mean":26.105,"median":26,"bias":-2.8949999999999996,"maeMean":2.8949999999999996,"maeMedian":3,"low":18,"high":34,"coverage":true,"width":16,"pitLower":0.69,"pitUpper":0.77,"empiricalMass":0.08,"logScore":2.5257286443082556},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":3.0337250000000004,"mean":27.055,"median":26,"bias":-1.9450000000000003,"maeMean":1.9450000000000003,"maeMedian":3,"low":9,"high":49,"coverage":true,"width":40,"pitLower":0.61,"pitUpper":0.625,"empiricalMass":0.015,"logScore":4.199705077879927}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"15":0.005,"19":0.005,"20":0.015,"21":0.01,"22":0.01,"23":0.005,"24":0.01,"25":0.005,"27":0.005,"28":0.02,"29":0.005,"30":0.01,"31":0.025,"32":0.025,"33":0.03,"34":0.02,"35":0.025,"36":0.02,"37":0.015,"38":0.015,"39":0.035,"40":0.005,"41":0.025,"42":0.03,"43":0.02,"44":0.02,"45":0.02,"46":0.035,"47":0.03,"48":0.015,"49":0.02,"50":0.01,"51":0.03,"52":0.03,"53":0.025,"54":0.005,"56":0.01,"57":0.015,"58":0.01,"59":0.01,"60":0.01,"61":0.01,"64":0.02,"65":0.005,"66":0.01,"67":0.01,"70":0.025,"71":0.005,"72":0.005,"73":0.005,"74":0.01,"75":0.005,"76":0.015,"77":0.005,"78":0.01,"79":0.005,"80":0.005,"81":0.005,"82":0.005,"85":0.005,"86":0.005,"88":0.005,"89":0.005,"90":0.005,"91":0.015,"92":0.01,"95":0.005,"97":0.005,"98":0.005,"99":0.01,"100":0.005,"104":0.01,"107":0.005,"108":0.005,"111":0.005,"112":0.005,"113":0.005,"115":0.005,"131":0.005,"137":0.005,"142":0.005,"150":0.005,"164":0.005,"176":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"8":0.005,"12":0.005,"14":0.005,"15":0.015,"16":0.045,"17":0.015,"18":0.035,"19":0.035,"20":0.03,"21":0.045,"22":0.025,"23":0.07,"24":0.025,"25":0.04,"26":0.025,"27":0.065,"28":0.02,"29":0.025,"30":0.035,"31":0.06,"32":0.045,"33":0.03,"34":0.035,"35":0.04,"36":0.02,"37":0.015,"38":0.015,"39":0.01,"40":0.035,"41":0.005,"42":0.02,"43":0.01,"44":0.015,"45":0.005,"46":0.01,"47":0.005,"53":0.015,"54":0.01,"55":0.005,"56":0.005,"66":0.005,"72":0.005,"80":0.005,"94":0.005,"105":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"19":0.005,"21":0.005,"23":0.005,"25":0.02,"26":0.015,"27":0.03,"28":0.01,"29":0.01,"30":0.015,"31":0.02,"32":0.005,"33":0.01,"34":0.025,"35":0.025,"36":0.035,"37":0.005,"38":0.015,"39":0.01,"40":0.02,"41":0.02,"42":0.03,"43":0.025,"44":0.04,"45":0.045,"46":0.025,"47":0.015,"48":0.035,"49":0.025,"50":0.015,"51":0.015,"52":0.015,"53":0.01,"54":0.02,"55":0.005,"56":0.015,"57":0.025,"58":0.01,"59":0.005,"60":0.015,"61":0.01,"62":0.015,"63":0.01,"64":0.02,"65":0.02,"66":0.03,"68":0.02,"69":0.015,"70":0.01,"71":0.01,"72":0.01,"73":0.005,"74":0.005,"75":0.02,"77":0.015,"81":0.005,"83":0.005,"86":0.005,"93":0.005,"98":0.005,"99":0.005,"101":0.005,"105":0.01,"106":0.01,"109":0.005,"115":0.005,"123":0.005,"130":0.005,"134":0.005,"145":0.005,"204":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"30":0.005,"33":0.01,"35":0.005,"36":0.015,"37":0.015,"38":0.025,"39":0.045,"40":0.04,"41":0.04,"42":0.045,"43":0.04,"44":0.07,"45":0.05,"46":0.04,"47":0.05,"48":0.065,"49":0.025,"50":0.035,"51":0.055,"52":0.025,"53":0.055,"54":0.055,"55":0.035,"56":0.03,"57":0.01,"58":0.035,"59":0.015,"60":0.02,"61":0.02,"62":0.01,"63":0.01,"64":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"13":0.005,"16":0.02,"17":0.01,"18":0.025,"19":0.055,"20":0.05,"21":0.035,"22":0.045,"23":0.075,"24":0.045,"25":0.045,"26":0.12,"27":0.075,"28":0.085,"29":0.08,"30":0.04,"31":0.045,"32":0.03,"33":0.035,"34":0.045,"35":0.005,"36":0.015,"39":0.01,"42":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"6":0.01,"7":0.005,"8":0.02,"9":0.025,"10":0.025,"11":0.005,"12":0.03,"13":0.01,"14":0.005,"15":0.035,"16":0.035,"17":0.025,"18":0.025,"19":0.015,"20":0.025,"21":0.045,"22":0.02,"23":0.025,"24":0.04,"25":0.05,"26":0.055,"27":0.05,"28":0.03,"29":0.015,"30":0.035,"31":0.035,"32":0.02,"33":0.03,"34":0.025,"35":0.01,"36":0.02,"37":0.025,"38":0.02,"39":0.01,"41":0.01,"42":0.01,"43":0.005,"44":0.01,"45":0.015,"46":0.01,"47":0.005,"48":0.025,"49":0.015,"50":0.005,"52":0.01,"53":0.005,"56":0.005,"58":0.01,"59":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1670716800000,"validUntil":1673308800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":3,"actual":5,"trainingCount":5173,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2022","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":1.0484749999999998,"mean":6.895,"median":6,"bias":1.8949999999999996,"maeMean":1.8949999999999996,"maeMedian":1,"low":1,"high":17,"coverage":true,"width":16,"pitLower":0.37,"pitUpper":0.49,"empiricalMass":0.12,"logScore":2.120263536200091},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.9056500000000001,"mean":3.82,"median":3.5,"bias":-1.1800000000000002,"maeMean":1.1800000000000002,"maeMedian":1.5,"low":0,"high":8,"coverage":true,"width":8,"pitLower":0.64,"pitUpper":0.77,"empiricalMass":0.13,"logScore":2.0402208285265546},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.9299249999999999,"mean":6.515,"median":6,"bias":1.5149999999999997,"maeMean":1.5149999999999997,"maeMedian":1,"low":1,"high":14,"coverage":true,"width":13,"pitLower":0.335,"pitUpper":0.465,"empiricalMass":0.13,"logScore":2.0402208285265546},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.612525,"mean":6.055,"median":6,"bias":1.0549999999999997,"maeMean":1.0549999999999997,"maeMedian":1,"low":3,"high":11,"coverage":true,"width":8,"pitLower":0.235,"pitUpper":0.445,"empiricalMass":0.21,"logScore":1.5606477482646683},"recentPoisson":{"crps":1.0829750000000002,"mean":3.315,"median":3,"bias":-1.685,"maeMean":1.685,"maeMedian":2,"low":1,"high":7,"coverage":true,"width":6,"pitLower":0.765,"pitUpper":0.9,"empiricalMass":0.135,"logScore":2.0024805005437076},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":1.1059749999999997,"mean":3.455,"median":3,"bias":-1.545,"maeMean":1.545,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":8,"coverage":true,"width":8,"pitLower":0.7,"pitUpper":0.835,"empiricalMass":0.135,"logScore":2.0024805005437076}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.01,"1":0.045,"2":0.115,"3":0.095,"4":0.105,"5":0.12,"6":0.09,"7":0.07,"8":0.06,"9":0.075,"10":0.015,"11":0.03,"12":0.03,"13":0.03,"14":0.02,"15":0.02,"16":0.015,"17":0.015,"18":0.015,"19":0.005,"21":0.005,"22":0.01,"27":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.08,"1":0.135,"2":0.115,"3":0.17,"4":0.14,"5":0.13,"6":0.085,"7":0.07,"8":0.025,"9":0.005,"10":0.03,"11":0.005,"13":0.005,"14":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.015,"1":0.095,"2":0.035,"3":0.09,"4":0.1,"5":0.13,"6":0.105,"7":0.08,"8":0.105,"9":0.075,"10":0.04,"11":0.02,"12":0.02,"13":0.03,"14":0.01,"15":0.01,"16":0.02,"18":0.005,"20":0.005,"23":0.005,"32":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.01,"1":0.005,"2":0.03,"3":0.07,"4":0.12,"5":0.21,"6":0.17,"7":0.15,"8":0.095,"9":0.055,"10":0.03,"11":0.035,"12":0.02},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.025,"1":0.115,"2":0.225,"3":0.21,"4":0.19,"5":0.135,"6":0.045,"7":0.03,"8":0.02,"9":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.07,"1":0.12,"2":0.2,"3":0.225,"4":0.085,"5":0.135,"6":0.06,"7":0.045,"8":0.015,"9":0.02,"10":0.015,"11":0.005,"13":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1670716800000,"validUntil":1673308800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":4,"actual":1,"trainingCount":5173,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2022","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.39832499999999993,"mean":0.815,"median":0,"bias":-0.18500000000000005,"maeMean":0.18500000000000005,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.575,"pitUpper":0.765,"empiricalMass":0.19,"logScore":1.6607312068216509},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.4926,"mean":0.44,"median":0,"bias":-0.56,"maeMean":0.56,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.695,"pitUpper":0.905,"empiricalMass":0.21,"logScore":1.5606477482646683},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.3735,"mean":0.7,"median":0,"bias":-0.30000000000000004,"maeMean":0.30000000000000004,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.58,"pitUpper":0.82,"empiricalMass":0.24,"logScore":1.4271163556401458},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.23405000000000004,"mean":0.76,"median":1,"bias":-0.24,"maeMean":0.24,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.45,"pitUpper":0.825,"empiricalMass":0.375,"logScore":0.9808292530117262},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.28819999999999996,"mean":0.67,"median":0,"bias":-0.32999999999999996,"maeMean":0.32999999999999996,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.52,"pitUpper":0.875,"empiricalMass":0.355,"logScore":1.0356374895067213},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.23660000000000003,"mean":0.78,"median":1,"bias":-0.21999999999999997,"maeMean":0.21999999999999997,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.45,"pitUpper":0.82,"empiricalMass":0.37,"logScore":0.9942522733438669}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.575,"1":0.19,"2":0.13,"3":0.07,"4":0.02,"5":0.015},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.695,"1":0.21,"2":0.075,"3":0.01,"4":0.005,"6":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.58,"1":0.24,"2":0.115,"3":0.045,"4":0.015,"7":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.45,"1":0.375,"2":0.145,"3":0.025,"4":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.52,"1":0.355,"2":0.08,"3":0.035,"4":0.005,"6":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.45,"1":0.37,"2":0.14,"3":0.03,"4":0.01}}},{"issuedAt":1673308800000,"validUntil":1673395200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":2,"actual":1,"trainingCount":5202,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2023","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.30162500000000003,"mean":1.585,"median":1,"bias":0.585,"maeMean":0.585,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":6,"coverage":true,"width":6,"pitLower":0.395,"pitUpper":0.72,"empiricalMass":0.325,"logScore":1.1239300966523995},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.290725,"mean":0.775,"median":0,"bias":-0.22499999999999998,"maeMean":0.22499999999999998,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.505,"pitUpper":0.825,"empiricalMass":0.32,"logScore":1.1394342831883648},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.31272500000000003,"mean":1.425,"median":1,"bias":0.42500000000000004,"maeMean":0.42500000000000004,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.385,"pitUpper":0.675,"empiricalMass":0.29,"logScore":1.2378743560016174},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.2869750000000001,"mean":1.355,"median":1,"bias":0.355,"maeMean":0.355,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.285,"pitUpper":0.58,"empiricalMass":0.295,"logScore":1.2207799226423173},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.23182500000000006,"mean":0.805,"median":1,"bias":-0.19499999999999995,"maeMean":0.19499999999999995,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.44,"pitUpper":0.81,"empiricalMass":0.37,"logScore":0.9942522733438669},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.35272499999999996,"mean":0.995,"median":0,"bias":-0.0050000000000000044,"maeMean":0.0050000000000000044,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.51,"pitUpper":0.73,"empiricalMass":0.22,"logScore":1.5141277326297755}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.395,"1":0.325,"2":0.085,"3":0.095,"4":0.025,"5":0.01,"6":0.015,"8":0.01,"9":0.005,"10":0.005,"11":0.015,"13":0.01,"19":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.505,"1":0.32,"2":0.11,"3":0.04,"4":0.01,"5":0.015},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.385,"1":0.29,"2":0.12,"3":0.11,"4":0.03,"5":0.015,"6":0.025,"7":0.01,"8":0.005,"10":0.005,"12":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.285,"1":0.295,"2":0.255,"3":0.12,"4":0.035,"5":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.44,"1":0.37,"2":0.145,"3":0.035,"4":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.51,"1":0.22,"2":0.145,"3":0.07,"4":0.03,"5":0.005,"6":0.015,"8":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1673308800000,"validUntil":1673395200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":3,"actual":1,"trainingCount":5202,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2023","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.7418750000000001,"mean":0.205,"median":0,"bias":-0.795,"maeMean":0.795,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0.86,"pitUpper":0.955,"empiricalMass":0.095,"logScore":2.353878387381596},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.8836999999999999,"mean":0.07,"median":0,"bias":-0.9299999999999999,"maeMean":0.9299999999999999,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0.94,"pitUpper":0.99,"empiricalMass":0.05,"logScore":2.995732273553991},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.734175,"mean":0.225,"median":0,"bias":-0.775,"maeMean":0.775,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0.855,"pitUpper":0.95,"empiricalMass":0.095,"logScore":2.353878387381596},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.722725,"mean":0.165,"median":0,"bias":-0.835,"maeMean":0.835,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0.85,"pitUpper":0.985,"empiricalMass":0.135,"logScore":2.0024805005437076},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.783325,"mean":0.125,"median":0,"bias":-0.875,"maeMean":0.875,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0.885,"pitUpper":0.99,"empiricalMass":0.105,"logScore":2.2537949288246137},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.81025,"mean":0.12,"median":0,"bias":-0.88,"maeMean":0.88,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0.9,"pitUpper":0.985,"empiricalMass":0.085,"logScore":2.4651040224918206}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.86,"1":0.095,"2":0.03,"3":0.01,"4":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.94,"1":0.05,"2":0.01},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.855,"1":0.095,"2":0.025,"3":0.02,"4":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.85,"1":0.135,"2":0.015},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.885,"1":0.105,"2":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.9,"1":0.085,"2":0.01,"3":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1673308800000,"validUntil":1673395200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5202,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2023","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.0009250000000000022,"mean":0.035,"median":0,"bias":0.035,"maeMean":0.035,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.97,"empiricalMass":0.97,"logScore":0.030459207484708574},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.00002499999999999985,"mean":0.005,"median":0,"bias":0.005,"maeMean":0.005,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.995,"empiricalMass":0.995,"logScore":0.005012541823544286},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.0006499999999999978,"mean":0.03,"median":0,"bias":0.03,"maeMean":0.03,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.975,"empiricalMass":0.975,"logScore":0.025317807984289897},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.0006499999999999978,"mean":0.03,"median":0,"bias":0.03,"maeMean":0.03,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.975,"empiricalMass":0.975,"logScore":0.025317807984289897},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.0000999999999999994,"mean":0.01,"median":0,"bias":0.01,"maeMean":0.01,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.99,"empiricalMass":0.99,"logScore":0.01005033585350145},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.0016000000000000042,"mean":0.04,"median":0,"bias":0.04,"maeMean":0.04,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.96,"empiricalMass":0.96,"logScore":0.040821994520255166}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.97,"1":0.025,"2":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.995,"1":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.975,"1":0.02,"2":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.975,"1":0.02,"2":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.99,"1":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.96,"1":0.04}}},{"issuedAt":1673308800000,"validUntil":1673913600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":2,"actual":3,"trainingCount":5202,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2023","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":4.619625,"mean":11.485,"median":9,"bias":8.485,"maeMean":8.485,"maeMedian":6,"low":2,"high":28,"coverage":true,"width":26,"pitLower":0.055,"pitUpper":0.075,"empiricalMass":0.02,"logScore":3.912023005428146},"rollingETAS":{"crps":1.58095,"mean":6.19,"median":6,"bias":3.1900000000000004,"maeMean":3.1900000000000004,"maeMedian":3,"low":2,"high":12,"coverage":true,"width":10,"pitLower":0.095,"pitUpper":0.235,"empiricalMass":0.14,"logScore":1.9661128563728327},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":4.293925000000001,"mean":10.975,"median":9,"bias":7.975,"maeMean":7.975,"maeMedian":6,"low":3,"high":23,"coverage":true,"width":20,"pitLower":0.035,"pitUpper":0.07,"empiricalMass":0.035,"logScore":3.3524072174927233},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":6.208424999999999,"mean":11.065,"median":11,"bias":8.065,"maeMean":8.065,"maeMedian":8,"low":6,"high":17,"coverage":false,"width":11,"pitLower":0.005,"pitUpper":0.015,"empiricalMass":0.01,"logScore":4.605170185988091},"recentPoisson":{"crps":2.209175,"mean":6.565,"median":6,"bias":3.5650000000000004,"maeMean":3.5650000000000004,"maeMedian":3,"low":3,"high":11,"coverage":true,"width":8,"pitLower":0.025,"pitUpper":0.105,"empiricalMass":0.08,"logScore":2.5257286443082556},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":1.5195000000000003,"mean":6.45,"median":5,"bias":3.45,"maeMean":3.45,"maeMedian":2,"low":1,"high":16,"coverage":true,"width":15,"pitLower":0.22,"pitUpper":0.335,"empiricalMass":0.115,"logScore":2.162823150618887}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.005,"1":0.005,"2":0.045,"3":0.02,"4":0.045,"5":0.07,"6":0.075,"7":0.095,"8":0.065,"9":0.095,"10":0.035,"11":0.05,"12":0.09,"13":0.035,"14":0.025,"15":0.005,"16":0.025,"17":0.02,"18":0.03,"19":0.02,"20":0.045,"21":0.015,"22":0.01,"23":0.015,"27":0.005,"28":0.005,"29":0.015,"32":0.01,"35":0.01,"36":0.005,"44":0.005,"46":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.005,"1":0.025,"2":0.065,"3":0.14,"4":0.13,"5":0.13,"6":0.115,"7":0.09,"8":0.095,"9":0.05,"10":0.06,"11":0.03,"12":0.015,"13":0.01,"14":0.01,"15":0.005,"16":0.01,"17":0.005,"18":0.005,"25":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.01,"2":0.025,"3":0.035,"4":0.065,"5":0.07,"6":0.065,"7":0.095,"8":0.105,"9":0.06,"10":0.095,"11":0.045,"12":0.025,"13":0.03,"14":0.055,"15":0.04,"16":0.01,"17":0.02,"18":0.02,"19":0.03,"20":0.01,"21":0.01,"22":0.01,"23":0.025,"25":0.01,"26":0.005,"29":0.005,"30":0.005,"31":0.005,"42":0.005,"50":0.005,"69":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"2":0.005,"3":0.01,"5":0.02,"6":0.04,"7":0.045,"8":0.07,"9":0.16,"10":0.125,"11":0.1,"12":0.12,"13":0.095,"14":0.075,"15":0.035,"16":0.045,"17":0.01,"18":0.015,"19":0.015,"21":0.005,"22":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"1":0.005,"2":0.02,"3":0.08,"4":0.12,"5":0.13,"6":0.19,"7":0.125,"8":0.12,"9":0.065,"10":0.055,"11":0.05,"12":0.03,"13":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.035,"1":0.065,"2":0.12,"3":0.115,"4":0.115,"5":0.075,"6":0.055,"7":0.08,"8":0.08,"9":0.045,"10":0.05,"11":0.045,"12":0.005,"13":0.01,"14":0.02,"15":0.02,"16":0.015,"17":0.005,"18":0.015,"19":0.01,"20":0.01,"23":0.005,"33":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1673308800000,"validUntil":1673913600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":3,"actual":1,"trainingCount":5202,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2023","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.3765749999999999,"mean":1.455,"median":1,"bias":0.45500000000000007,"maeMean":0.45500000000000007,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.4,"pitUpper":0.62,"empiricalMass":0.22,"logScore":1.5141277326297755},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.30450000000000005,"mean":0.74,"median":0,"bias":-0.26,"maeMean":0.26,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.525,"pitUpper":0.85,"empiricalMass":0.325,"logScore":1.1239300966523995},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.31647499999999995,"mean":1.345,"median":1,"bias":0.345,"maeMean":0.345,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.38,"pitUpper":0.635,"empiricalMass":0.255,"logScore":1.3664917338237108},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.2579,"mean":1.45,"median":1,"bias":0.44999999999999996,"maeMean":0.44999999999999996,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.205,"pitUpper":0.57,"empiricalMass":0.365,"logScore":1.0078579253996456},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.1974499999999999,"mean":0.94,"median":1,"bias":-0.06000000000000005,"maeMean":0.06000000000000005,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.38,"pitUpper":0.785,"empiricalMass":0.405,"logScore":0.9038682118755978},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.317025,"mean":0.975,"median":1,"bias":-0.025000000000000022,"maeMean":0.025000000000000022,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.485,"pitUpper":0.75,"empiricalMass":0.265,"logScore":1.3280254529959148}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.4,"1":0.22,"2":0.145,"3":0.13,"4":0.04,"5":0.035,"6":0.01,"8":0.02},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.525,"1":0.325,"2":0.075,"3":0.05,"4":0.015,"5":0.005,"6":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.38,"1":0.255,"2":0.195,"3":0.08,"4":0.06,"5":0.01,"6":0.005,"7":0.005,"10":0.005,"11":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.205,"1":0.365,"2":0.26,"3":0.125,"4":0.04,"6":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.38,"1":0.405,"2":0.135,"3":0.06,"4":0.015,"5":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.485,"1":0.265,"2":0.12,"3":0.085,"4":0.03,"5":0.005,"6":0.005,"8":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1673308800000,"validUntil":1673913600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5202,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2023","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.019699999999999995,"mean":0.15,"median":0,"bias":0.15,"maeMean":0.15,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.86,"empiricalMass":0.86,"logScore":0.15082288973458366},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.008125000000000007,"mean":0.095,"median":0,"bias":0.095,"maeMean":0.095,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.91,"empiricalMass":0.91,"logScore":0.09431067947124129},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.013575000000000004,"mean":0.145,"median":0,"bias":0.145,"maeMean":0.145,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.885,"empiricalMass":0.885,"logScore":0.12216763397420753},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.027324999999999988,"mean":0.175,"median":0,"bias":0.175,"maeMean":0.175,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.835,"empiricalMass":0.835,"logScore":0.18032355413128162},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.031024999999999997,"mean":0.195,"median":0,"bias":0.195,"maeMean":0.195,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.825,"empiricalMass":0.825,"logScore":0.19237189264745613},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.038525000000000004,"mean":0.225,"median":0,"bias":0.225,"maeMean":0.225,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.805,"empiricalMass":0.805,"logScore":0.21691300156357363}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.86,"1":0.13,"2":0.01},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.91,"1":0.085,"2":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.885,"1":0.1,"2":0.005,"3":0.005,"4":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.835,"1":0.155,"2":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.825,"1":0.155,"2":0.02},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.805,"1":0.175,"2":0.01,"3":0.01}}},{"issuedAt":1673308800000,"validUntil":1675900800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":2,"actual":38,"trainingCount":5202,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2023","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":8.04625,"mean":57.05,"median":51,"bias":19.049999999999997,"maeMean":19.049999999999997,"maeMedian":13,"low":25,"high":117,"coverage":true,"width":92,"pitLower":0.26,"pitUpper":0.28,"empiricalMass":0.02,"logScore":3.912023005428146},"rollingETAS":{"crps":8.9583,"mean":25.74,"median":25,"bias":-12.260000000000002,"maeMean":12.260000000000002,"maeMedian":13,"low":16,"high":38,"coverage":true,"width":22,"pitLower":0.94,"pitUpper":0.955,"empiricalMass":0.015,"logScore":4.199705077879927},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":7.343374999999998,"mean":55.165,"median":47.5,"bias":17.165,"maeMean":17.165,"maeMedian":9.5,"low":24,"high":105,"coverage":true,"width":81,"pitLower":0.265,"pitUpper":0.285,"empiricalMass":0.02,"logScore":3.912023005428146},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":5.385900000000001,"mean":46.64,"median":47,"bias":8.64,"maeMean":8.64,"maeMedian":9,"low":36,"high":58,"coverage":true,"width":22,"pitLower":0.07,"pitUpper":0.09,"empiricalMass":0.02,"logScore":3.912023005428146},"recentPoisson":{"crps":6.483975,"mean":28.785,"median":29,"bias":-9.215,"maeMean":9.215,"maeMedian":9,"low":19,"high":38,"coverage":true,"width":19,"pitLower":0.94,"pitUpper":0.97,"empiricalMass":0.03,"logScore":3.506557897319982},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":6.903475000000001,"mean":27.835,"median":27,"bias":-10.165,"maeMean":10.165,"maeMedian":11,"low":13,"high":48,"coverage":true,"width":35,"pitLower":0.83,"pitUpper":0.84,"empiricalMass":0.01,"logScore":4.605170185988091}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"19":0.005,"20":0.01,"21":0.005,"22":0.01,"23":0.005,"24":0.01,"25":0.015,"26":0.01,"27":0.015,"28":0.01,"29":0.005,"30":0.015,"32":0.025,"33":0.02,"34":0.01,"35":0.015,"36":0.03,"37":0.045,"38":0.02,"39":0.035,"40":0.035,"42":0.015,"43":0.015,"44":0.025,"45":0.03,"46":0.005,"47":0.01,"48":0.015,"49":0.015,"50":0.015,"51":0.01,"52":0.02,"53":0.04,"54":0.01,"55":0.03,"56":0.03,"57":0.015,"58":0.01,"59":0.015,"60":0.01,"61":0.005,"62":0.01,"63":0.005,"64":0.015,"65":0.02,"67":0.01,"68":0.005,"69":0.02,"70":0.01,"71":0.005,"72":0.005,"73":0.01,"74":0.005,"75":0.01,"76":0.01,"77":0.005,"79":0.005,"80":0.005,"81":0.005,"83":0.005,"85":0.01,"90":0.005,"93":0.01,"94":0.01,"98":0.01,"99":0.005,"100":0.005,"101":0.005,"102":0.005,"105":0.01,"112":0.01,"114":0.005,"117":0.005,"122":0.005,"127":0.005,"129":0.005,"130":0.005,"131":0.005,"138":0.005,"143":0.005,"145":0.005,"152":0.005,"198":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"12":0.01,"14":0.015,"15":0.005,"16":0.03,"17":0.05,"18":0.035,"19":0.055,"20":0.045,"21":0.04,"22":0.055,"23":0.07,"24":0.06,"25":0.085,"26":0.06,"27":0.05,"28":0.03,"29":0.04,"30":0.03,"31":0.045,"32":0.025,"33":0.035,"34":0.02,"35":0.015,"36":0.035,"38":0.015,"39":0.005,"40":0.005,"41":0.005,"43":0.01,"47":0.01,"48":0.005,"54":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"17":0.005,"18":0.005,"19":0.01,"22":0.015,"23":0.01,"24":0.005,"25":0.005,"26":0.01,"27":0.025,"28":0.02,"29":0.01,"30":0.01,"31":0.03,"32":0.015,"33":0.005,"34":0.025,"35":0.02,"36":0.015,"37":0.025,"38":0.02,"39":0.01,"40":0.015,"41":0.025,"42":0.015,"43":0.035,"44":0.03,"45":0.035,"46":0.03,"47":0.02,"48":0.015,"49":0.03,"50":0.01,"51":0.03,"52":0.02,"53":0.025,"54":0.015,"55":0.01,"58":0.005,"59":0.01,"60":0.01,"62":0.015,"63":0.035,"64":0.005,"65":0.015,"66":0.005,"67":0.01,"68":0.005,"69":0.015,"70":0.005,"72":0.015,"73":0.015,"74":0.015,"76":0.005,"77":0.01,"78":0.005,"79":0.005,"81":0.005,"82":0.02,"84":0.005,"85":0.015,"87":0.005,"88":0.01,"89":0.005,"93":0.005,"97":0.005,"101":0.01,"105":0.005,"108":0.005,"120":0.005,"121":0.005,"126":0.005,"133":0.005,"140":0.005,"148":0.005,"188":0.005,"196":0.005,"202":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"29":0.005,"33":0.02,"34":0.005,"35":0.015,"36":0.01,"37":0.015,"38":0.02,"39":0.05,"40":0.06,"41":0.04,"42":0.03,"43":0.065,"44":0.035,"45":0.065,"46":0.06,"47":0.095,"48":0.03,"49":0.08,"50":0.015,"51":0.03,"52":0.06,"53":0.04,"54":0.045,"55":0.025,"56":0.015,"57":0.015,"58":0.015,"59":0.005,"60":0.005,"61":0.005,"62":0.01,"63":0.005,"64":0.005,"65":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"14":0.01,"17":0.01,"18":0.015,"19":0.025,"20":0.005,"21":0.005,"22":0.035,"23":0.03,"24":0.045,"25":0.08,"26":0.045,"27":0.085,"28":0.08,"29":0.065,"30":0.105,"31":0.06,"32":0.095,"33":0.06,"34":0.025,"35":0.03,"36":0.005,"37":0.025,"38":0.03,"39":0.005,"40":0.01,"41":0.005,"42":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"9":0.01,"10":0.005,"11":0.01,"13":0.025,"14":0.03,"15":0.025,"16":0.01,"17":0.04,"18":0.025,"19":0.06,"20":0.05,"21":0.04,"22":0.015,"23":0.025,"24":0.06,"25":0.03,"26":0.03,"27":0.06,"28":0.045,"29":0.045,"30":0.02,"31":0.025,"32":0.02,"33":0.015,"34":0.035,"35":0.04,"36":0.015,"37":0.02,"38":0.01,"39":0.005,"40":0.01,"41":0.02,"42":0.01,"43":0.015,"44":0.02,"45":0.005,"46":0.015,"48":0.01,"49":0.005,"50":0.015,"51":0.005,"53":0.015,"56":0.005,"59":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1673308800000,"validUntil":1675900800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":3,"actual":8,"trainingCount":5202,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2023","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":1.3335,"mean":7.31,"median":6,"bias":-0.6900000000000004,"maeMean":0.6900000000000004,"maeMedian":2,"low":1,"high":18,"coverage":true,"width":17,"pitLower":0.59,"pitUpper":0.685,"empiricalMass":0.095,"logScore":2.353878387381596},"rollingETAS":{"crps":3.7598000000000003,"mean":3.23,"median":3,"bias":-4.77,"maeMean":4.77,"maeMedian":5,"low":0,"high":6,"coverage":false,"width":6,"pitLower":0.97,"pitUpper":0.99,"empiricalMass":0.02,"logScore":3.912023005428146},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":1.5923500000000002,"mean":6.45,"median":5.5,"bias":-1.5499999999999998,"maeMean":1.5499999999999998,"maeMedian":2.5,"low":1,"high":18,"coverage":true,"width":17,"pitLower":0.705,"pitUpper":0.77,"empiricalMass":0.065,"logScore":2.7333680090865},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":1.02745,"mean":6.38,"median":6,"bias":-1.62,"maeMean":1.62,"maeMedian":2,"low":2,"high":10,"coverage":true,"width":8,"pitLower":0.685,"pitUpper":0.795,"empiricalMass":0.11,"logScore":2.2072749131897207},"recentPoisson":{"crps":3.0589500000000003,"mean":3.87,"median":4,"bias":-4.13,"maeMean":4.13,"maeMedian":4,"low":1,"high":7,"coverage":false,"width":6,"pitLower":0.95,"pitUpper":0.97,"empiricalMass":0.02,"logScore":3.912023005428146},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":2.8553999999999995,"mean":3.99,"median":4,"bias":-4.01,"maeMean":4.01,"maeMedian":4,"low":1,"high":8,"coverage":true,"width":7,"pitLower":0.925,"pitUpper":0.98,"empiricalMass":0.055,"logScore":2.900422093749666}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.02,"1":0.06,"2":0.075,"3":0.09,"4":0.09,"5":0.11,"6":0.09,"7":0.055,"8":0.095,"9":0.065,"10":0.045,"11":0.035,"12":0.015,"13":0.03,"14":0.035,"15":0.015,"16":0.01,"17":0.01,"18":0.015,"19":0.015,"20":0.005,"25":0.005,"27":0.005,"28":0.005,"29":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.05,"1":0.125,"2":0.215,"3":0.245,"4":0.12,"5":0.11,"6":0.09,"7":0.015,"8":0.02,"9":0.005,"12":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.04,"1":0.055,"2":0.09,"3":0.105,"4":0.11,"5":0.1,"6":0.12,"7":0.085,"8":0.065,"9":0.035,"10":0.035,"11":0.025,"12":0.03,"13":0.025,"14":0.01,"15":0.005,"17":0.005,"18":0.02,"19":0.02,"21":0.005,"22":0.005,"24":0.005,"25":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.005,"1":0.02,"2":0.025,"3":0.095,"4":0.1,"5":0.125,"6":0.155,"7":0.16,"8":0.11,"9":0.08,"10":0.075,"11":0.015,"12":0.025,"13":0.005,"14":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.03,"1":0.09,"2":0.15,"3":0.2,"4":0.165,"5":0.155,"6":0.115,"7":0.045,"8":0.02,"9":0.02,"10":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.04,"1":0.065,"2":0.165,"3":0.18,"4":0.17,"5":0.135,"6":0.115,"7":0.055,"8":0.055,"9":0.015,"10":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1673308800000,"validUntil":1675900800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":4,"actual":1,"trainingCount":5202,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2023","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.32924999999999993,"mean":0.8,"median":0,"bias":-0.19999999999999996,"maeMean":0.19999999999999996,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.53,"pitUpper":0.795,"empiricalMass":0.265,"logScore":1.3280254529959148},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.5989249999999999,"mean":0.325,"median":0,"bias":-0.675,"maeMean":0.675,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.77,"pitUpper":0.925,"empiricalMass":0.155,"logScore":1.8643301620628905},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.29469999999999996,"mean":0.82,"median":0,"bias":-0.18000000000000005,"maeMean":0.18000000000000005,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.505,"pitUpper":0.82,"empiricalMass":0.315,"logScore":1.155182640156504},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.18935000000000002,"mean":0.82,"median":1,"bias":-0.18000000000000005,"maeMean":0.18000000000000005,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.4,"pitUpper":0.835,"empiricalMass":0.435,"logScore":0.8324092478934529},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.268275,"mean":0.775,"median":1,"bias":-0.22499999999999998,"maeMean":0.22499999999999998,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.48,"pitUpper":0.815,"empiricalMass":0.335,"logScore":1.0936247471570706},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.21330000000000005,"mean":0.8,"median":1,"bias":-0.19999999999999996,"maeMean":0.19999999999999996,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.425,"pitUpper":0.825,"empiricalMass":0.4,"logScore":0.916290731874155}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.53,"1":0.265,"2":0.135,"3":0.035,"4":0.025,"6":0.01},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.77,"1":0.155,"2":0.055,"3":0.02},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.505,"1":0.315,"2":0.105,"3":0.04,"4":0.02,"5":0.005,"7":0.01},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.4,"1":0.435,"2":0.12,"3":0.035,"4":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.48,"1":0.335,"2":0.125,"3":0.055,"5":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.425,"1":0.4,"2":0.13,"3":0.04,"4":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1675900800000,"validUntil":1675987200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":2,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5240,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2023","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":1.0136000000000003,"mean":2.2,"median":2,"bias":2.2,"maeMean":2.2,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":6,"coverage":true,"width":6,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.245,"empiricalMass":0.245,"logScore":1.40649706843741},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.4546000000000001,"mean":1.08,"median":1,"bias":1.08,"maeMean":1.08,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.395,"empiricalMass":0.395,"logScore":0.9288695140810151},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.9184499999999998,"mean":2.03,"median":1,"bias":2.03,"maeMean":2.03,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":6,"coverage":true,"width":6,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.265,"empiricalMass":0.265,"logScore":1.3280254529959148},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.842625,"mean":1.515,"median":1,"bias":1.515,"maeMean":1.515,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.23,"empiricalMass":0.23,"logScore":1.4696759700589417},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.47667499999999996,"mean":0.985,"median":1,"bias":0.985,"maeMean":0.985,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.365,"empiricalMass":0.365,"logScore":1.0078579253996456},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.39812499999999995,"mean":1.015,"median":1,"bias":1.015,"maeMean":1.015,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.435,"empiricalMass":0.435,"logScore":0.8324092478934529}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.245,"1":0.23,"2":0.225,"3":0.08,"4":0.095,"5":0.035,"6":0.04,"7":0.015,"8":0.005,"10":0.02,"12":0.005,"16":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.395,"1":0.34,"2":0.145,"3":0.065,"4":0.025,"5":0.025,"6":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.265,"1":0.26,"2":0.165,"3":0.12,"4":0.08,"5":0.04,"6":0.035,"7":0.005,"9":0.015,"10":0.01,"16":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.23,"1":0.315,"2":0.265,"3":0.11,"4":0.07,"6":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.365,"1":0.37,"2":0.215,"3":0.025,"4":0.015,"5":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.435,"1":0.315,"2":0.135,"3":0.065,"4":0.025,"5":0.02,"7":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1675900800000,"validUntil":1675987200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":3,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5240,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2023","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.04772500000000002,"mean":0.275,"median":0,"bias":0.275,"maeMean":0.275,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.785,"empiricalMass":0.785,"logScore":0.24207156119972859},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.021650000000000003,"mean":0.17,"median":0,"bias":0.17,"maeMean":0.17,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.855,"empiricalMass":0.855,"logScore":0.15665381004537685},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.027225,"mean":0.205,"median":0,"bias":0.205,"maeMean":0.205,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.84,"empiricalMass":0.84,"logScore":0.1743533871447778},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.028225,"mean":0.205,"median":0,"bias":0.205,"maeMean":0.205,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.835,"empiricalMass":0.835,"logScore":0.18032355413128162},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.011050000000000004,"mean":0.11,"median":0,"bias":0.11,"maeMean":0.11,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.895,"empiricalMass":0.895,"logScore":0.11093156070728166},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.020500000000000018,"mean":0.17,"median":0,"bias":0.17,"maeMean":0.17,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.86,"empiricalMass":0.86,"logScore":0.15082288973458366}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.785,"1":0.18,"2":0.02,"3":0.01,"5":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.855,"1":0.12,"2":0.025},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.84,"1":0.12,"2":0.035,"3":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.835,"1":0.135,"2":0.02,"3":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.895,"1":0.1,"2":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.86,"1":0.11,"2":0.03}}},{"issuedAt":1675900800000,"validUntil":1675987200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5240,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2023","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.000899999999999998,"mean":0.03,"median":0,"bias":0.03,"maeMean":0.03,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.97,"empiricalMass":0.97,"logScore":0.030459207484708574},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.00040000000000000105,"mean":0.02,"median":0,"bias":0.02,"maeMean":0.02,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.98,"empiricalMass":0.98,"logScore":0.020202707317519466},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.0006499999999999978,"mean":0.03,"median":0,"bias":0.03,"maeMean":0.03,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.975,"empiricalMass":0.975,"logScore":0.025317807984289897},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.002024999999999999,"mean":0.045,"median":0,"bias":0.045,"maeMean":0.045,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.955,"empiricalMass":0.955,"logScore":0.046043938501406846},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.00040000000000000105,"mean":0.02,"median":0,"bias":0.02,"maeMean":0.02,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.98,"empiricalMass":0.98,"logScore":0.020202707317519466},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.0009250000000000022,"mean":0.035,"median":0,"bias":0.035,"maeMean":0.035,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.97,"empiricalMass":0.97,"logScore":0.030459207484708574}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.97,"1":0.03},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.98,"1":0.02},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.975,"1":0.02,"2":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.955,"1":0.045},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.98,"1":0.02},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.97,"1":0.025,"2":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1675900800000,"validUntil":1676505600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":2,"actual":5,"trainingCount":5240,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2023","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":4.871474999999999,"mean":14.255,"median":12,"bias":9.255,"maeMean":9.255,"maeMedian":7,"low":4,"high":31,"coverage":true,"width":27,"pitLower":0.065,"pitUpper":0.09,"empiricalMass":0.025,"logScore":3.6888794541139363},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.9089,"mean":6.84,"median":6,"bias":1.8399999999999999,"maeMean":1.8399999999999999,"maeMedian":1,"low":3,"high":14,"coverage":true,"width":11,"pitLower":0.235,"pitUpper":0.385,"empiricalMass":0.15,"logScore":1.8971199848858813},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":4.693849999999999,"mean":13.88,"median":12,"bias":8.88,"maeMean":8.88,"maeMedian":7,"low":4,"high":32,"coverage":true,"width":28,"pitLower":0.07,"pitUpper":0.095,"empiricalMass":0.025,"logScore":3.6888794541139363},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":4.307875,"mean":11.115,"median":11,"bias":6.115,"maeMean":6.115,"maeMedian":6,"low":6,"high":17,"coverage":false,"width":11,"pitLower":0.015,"pitUpper":0.025,"empiricalMass":0.01,"logScore":4.605170185988091},"recentPoisson":{"crps":1.0843999999999998,"mean":6.87,"median":7,"bias":1.87,"maeMean":1.87,"maeMedian":2,"low":3,"high":11,"coverage":true,"width":8,"pitLower":0.21,"pitUpper":0.32,"empiricalMass":0.11,"logScore":2.2072749131897207},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":1.1637500000000003,"mean":6.71,"median":6,"bias":1.71,"maeMean":1.71,"maeMedian":1,"low":1,"high":15,"coverage":true,"width":14,"pitLower":0.38,"pitUpper":0.44,"empiricalMass":0.06,"logScore":2.8134107167600364}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"1":0.005,"2":0.015,"3":0.01,"4":0.035,"5":0.025,"6":0.06,"7":0.06,"8":0.055,"9":0.07,"10":0.08,"11":0.05,"12":0.075,"13":0.025,"14":0.05,"15":0.055,"16":0.04,"17":0.02,"18":0.045,"19":0.025,"20":0.015,"21":0.01,"22":0.025,"23":0.015,"24":0.01,"25":0.015,"26":0.01,"27":0.015,"29":0.015,"30":0.01,"31":0.015,"33":0.02,"35":0.005,"39":0.005,"41":0.005,"46":0.005,"72":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"1":0.005,"2":0.035,"3":0.07,"4":0.125,"5":0.15,"6":0.155,"7":0.1,"8":0.125,"9":0.055,"10":0.045,"11":0.055,"12":0.015,"13":0.01,"14":0.025,"15":0.02,"16":0.005,"17":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"2":0.01,"3":0.025,"4":0.035,"5":0.025,"6":0.055,"7":0.065,"8":0.08,"9":0.075,"10":0.04,"11":0.045,"12":0.08,"13":0.055,"14":0.065,"15":0.035,"16":0.045,"17":0.03,"18":0.02,"19":0.005,"20":0.01,"21":0.025,"22":0.02,"23":0.02,"24":0.02,"25":0.005,"26":0.02,"27":0.01,"28":0.005,"29":0.01,"31":0.005,"32":0.02,"33":0.005,"34":0.005,"35":0.005,"36":0.01,"39":0.005,"40":0.005,"44":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"3":0.005,"4":0.01,"5":0.01,"6":0.035,"7":0.065,"8":0.1,"9":0.125,"10":0.095,"11":0.125,"12":0.11,"13":0.1,"14":0.07,"15":0.05,"16":0.02,"17":0.04,"18":0.02,"19":0.015,"20":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"1":0.015,"2":0.025,"3":0.065,"4":0.105,"5":0.11,"6":0.15,"7":0.125,"8":0.12,"9":0.12,"10":0.065,"11":0.07,"12":0.005,"13":0.015,"14":0.005,"16":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.035,"1":0.055,"2":0.075,"3":0.14,"4":0.075,"5":0.06,"6":0.09,"7":0.105,"8":0.095,"9":0.035,"10":0.04,"11":0.035,"12":0.04,"13":0.04,"14":0.02,"15":0.01,"16":0.01,"17":0.01,"18":0.005,"19":0.01,"20":0.01,"22":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1675900800000,"validUntil":1676505600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":3,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5240,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2023","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.81505,"mean":1.86,"median":1,"bias":1.86,"maeMean":1.86,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":6,"coverage":true,"width":6,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.31,"empiricalMass":0.31,"logScore":1.171182981502945},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.328175,"mean":0.775,"median":1,"bias":0.775,"maeMean":0.775,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.455,"empiricalMass":0.455,"logScore":0.7874578600311866},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.702425,"mean":1.645,"median":1,"bias":1.645,"maeMean":1.645,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":6,"coverage":true,"width":6,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.32,"empiricalMass":0.32,"logScore":1.1394342831883648},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.8212750000000001,"mean":1.485,"median":1,"bias":1.485,"maeMean":1.485,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.24,"empiricalMass":0.24,"logScore":1.4271163556401458},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.546325,"mean":1.085,"median":1,"bias":1.085,"maeMean":1.085,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.33,"empiricalMass":0.33,"logScore":1.1086626245216111},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.47514999999999985,"mean":1.14,"median":1,"bias":1.14,"maeMean":1.14,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.39,"empiricalMass":0.39,"logScore":0.941608539858445}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.31,"1":0.235,"2":0.165,"3":0.12,"4":0.055,"5":0.055,"6":0.025,"7":0.01,"8":0.01,"9":0.01,"10":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.455,"1":0.375,"2":0.125,"3":0.03,"4":0.015},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.32,"1":0.28,"2":0.18,"3":0.085,"4":0.045,"5":0.025,"6":0.035,"7":0.02,"8":0.005,"11":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.24,"1":0.305,"2":0.28,"3":0.1,"4":0.055,"5":0.02},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.33,"1":0.375,"2":0.195,"3":0.08,"4":0.02},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.39,"1":0.325,"2":0.155,"3":0.065,"4":0.045,"5":0.005,"6":0.01,"9":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1675900800000,"validUntil":1676505600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5240,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2023","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.025674999999999976,"mean":0.175,"median":0,"bias":0.175,"maeMean":0.175,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.84,"empiricalMass":0.84,"logScore":0.1743533871447778},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.012325000000000003,"mean":0.125,"median":0,"bias":0.125,"maeMean":0.125,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.89,"empiricalMass":0.89,"logScore":0.11653381625595151},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.023400000000000004,"mean":0.18,"median":0,"bias":0.18,"maeMean":0.18,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.85,"empiricalMass":0.85,"logScore":0.16251892949777494},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.029124999999999984,"mean":0.185,"median":0,"bias":0.185,"maeMean":0.185,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.83,"empiricalMass":0.83,"logScore":0.18632957819149348},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.03620000000000001,"mean":0.2,"median":0,"bias":0.2,"maeMean":0.2,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.81,"empiricalMass":0.81,"logScore":0.21072103131565253},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.02562500000000001,"mean":0.165,"median":0,"bias":0.165,"maeMean":0.165,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.84,"empiricalMass":0.84,"logScore":0.1743533871447778}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.84,"1":0.155,"4":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.89,"1":0.095,"2":0.015},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.85,"1":0.12,"2":0.03},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.83,"1":0.155,"2":0.015},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.81,"1":0.18,"2":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.84,"1":0.155,"2":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1675900800000,"validUntil":1678492800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":2,"actual":17,"trainingCount":5240,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2023","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":32.3205,"mean":62.74,"median":57,"bias":45.74,"maeMean":45.74,"maeMedian":40,"low":32,"high":110,"coverage":false,"width":78,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"rollingETAS":{"crps":6.298575,"mean":27.045,"median":26,"bias":10.045000000000002,"maeMean":10.045000000000002,"maeMedian":9,"low":17,"high":40,"coverage":true,"width":23,"pitLower":0.04,"pitUpper":0.07,"empiricalMass":0.03,"logScore":3.506557897319982},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":28.710575000000002,"mean":60.275,"median":53,"bias":43.275,"maeMean":43.275,"maeMedian":36,"low":28,"high":114,"coverage":false,"width":86,"pitLower":0.005,"pitUpper":0.005,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":27.061500000000002,"mean":47.87,"median":47,"bias":30.869999999999997,"maeMean":30.869999999999997,"maeMedian":30,"low":37,"high":59,"coverage":false,"width":22,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentPoisson":{"crps":9.381374999999998,"mean":29.415,"median":29,"bias":12.415,"maeMean":12.415,"maeMedian":12,"low":21,"high":39,"coverage":false,"width":18,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":8.56335,"mean":31.32,"median":29.5,"bias":14.32,"maeMean":14.32,"maeMedian":12.5,"low":16,"high":51,"coverage":true,"width":35,"pitLower":0.055,"pitUpper":0.07,"empiricalMass":0.015,"logScore":4.199705077879927}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"21":0.005,"25":0.005,"26":0.005,"27":0.01,"29":0.01,"31":0.005,"32":0.015,"33":0.015,"34":0.035,"35":0.015,"36":0.015,"37":0.005,"38":0.01,"39":0.01,"40":0.01,"41":0.02,"42":0.015,"43":0.02,"44":0.01,"45":0.015,"46":0.035,"47":0.01,"48":0.015,"49":0.02,"50":0.03,"51":0.03,"52":0.025,"53":0.015,"54":0.02,"55":0.015,"56":0.02,"57":0.02,"58":0.02,"59":0.005,"60":0.01,"61":0.03,"62":0.015,"63":0.005,"64":0.01,"65":0.02,"66":0.015,"67":0.005,"68":0.02,"69":0.01,"70":0.015,"71":0.01,"72":0.01,"74":0.015,"75":0.01,"77":0.015,"79":0.015,"80":0.01,"81":0.005,"83":0.025,"84":0.01,"85":0.015,"87":0.015,"89":0.015,"90":0.005,"91":0.01,"92":0.015,"93":0.015,"94":0.01,"95":0.005,"96":0.005,"97":0.005,"100":0.005,"101":0.005,"102":0.005,"103":0.005,"110":0.015,"112":0.005,"117":0.005,"122":0.005,"124":0.005,"126":0.005,"141":0.005,"143":0.005,"161":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"14":0.015,"15":0.015,"16":0.01,"17":0.03,"18":0.03,"19":0.045,"20":0.025,"21":0.055,"22":0.06,"23":0.07,"24":0.05,"25":0.04,"26":0.07,"27":0.02,"28":0.055,"29":0.055,"30":0.075,"31":0.04,"32":0.045,"33":0.03,"34":0.03,"35":0.01,"36":0.02,"37":0.015,"38":0.025,"39":0.005,"40":0.02,"41":0.01,"42":0.015,"44":0.005,"49":0.005,"50":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"12":0.005,"22":0.015,"23":0.005,"25":0.005,"27":0.005,"28":0.02,"29":0.015,"30":0.015,"31":0.01,"32":0.005,"33":0.01,"34":0.01,"35":0.02,"36":0.045,"37":0.005,"38":0.015,"39":0.03,"40":0.015,"41":0.005,"42":0.01,"43":0.01,"44":0.03,"45":0.01,"46":0.02,"47":0.03,"48":0.02,"49":0.03,"50":0.035,"51":0.01,"52":0.035,"53":0.025,"54":0.02,"55":0.005,"56":0.025,"57":0.005,"58":0.025,"59":0.015,"60":0.015,"61":0.005,"62":0.005,"63":0.005,"64":0.005,"65":0.02,"66":0.02,"67":0.01,"68":0.005,"70":0.01,"71":0.02,"72":0.005,"74":0.01,"75":0.005,"76":0.025,"77":0.015,"78":0.005,"79":0.02,"80":0.01,"81":0.005,"82":0.005,"86":0.005,"87":0.005,"88":0.01,"89":0.01,"90":0.01,"91":0.01,"95":0.015,"96":0.005,"99":0.005,"102":0.005,"103":0.005,"104":0.005,"105":0.01,"106":0.005,"114":0.005,"118":0.005,"127":0.005,"128":0.005,"133":0.005,"143":0.005,"149":0.005,"151":0.005,"154":0.005,"160":0.005,"169":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"30":0.005,"35":0.015,"36":0.015,"37":0.02,"38":0.02,"39":0.035,"40":0.025,"41":0.05,"42":0.015,"43":0.055,"44":0.055,"45":0.085,"46":0.065,"47":0.05,"48":0.065,"49":0.045,"50":0.04,"51":0.055,"52":0.055,"53":0.025,"54":0.025,"55":0.055,"56":0.02,"57":0.01,"58":0.02,"59":0.025,"61":0.015,"62":0.015,"64":0.01,"66":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"18":0.005,"19":0.005,"20":0.03,"21":0.015,"22":0.025,"23":0.055,"24":0.045,"25":0.07,"26":0.07,"27":0.065,"28":0.075,"29":0.075,"30":0.085,"31":0.085,"32":0.045,"33":0.035,"34":0.045,"35":0.025,"36":0.025,"37":0.045,"38":0.02,"39":0.01,"40":0.01,"42":0.01,"43":0.005,"44":0.015,"45":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"11":0.005,"12":0.01,"13":0.01,"15":0.015,"16":0.015,"17":0.015,"18":0.035,"19":0.02,"20":0.025,"21":0.015,"22":0.035,"23":0.04,"24":0.045,"25":0.035,"26":0.055,"27":0.045,"28":0.03,"29":0.05,"30":0.045,"31":0.055,"32":0.015,"33":0.025,"34":0.035,"35":0.025,"36":0.025,"37":0.04,"38":0.02,"39":0.025,"40":0.015,"41":0.015,"42":0.005,"43":0.005,"44":0.02,"45":0.02,"46":0.01,"47":0.005,"49":0.01,"50":0.01,"51":0.03,"53":0.015,"54":0.01,"59":0.005,"60":0.005,"76":0.005,"81":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1675900800000,"validUntil":1678492800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":3,"actual":5,"trainingCount":5240,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2023","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":1.249825,"mean":7.655,"median":6,"bias":2.6550000000000002,"maeMean":2.6550000000000002,"maeMedian":1,"low":2,"high":17,"coverage":true,"width":15,"pitLower":0.295,"pitUpper":0.415,"empiricalMass":0.12,"logScore":2.120263536200091},"rollingETAS":{"crps":1.294125,"mean":3.025,"median":3,"bias":-1.975,"maeMean":1.975,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":6,"coverage":true,"width":6,"pitLower":0.775,"pitUpper":0.895,"empiricalMass":0.12,"logScore":2.120263536200091},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":1.2269999999999999,"mean":7.48,"median":6,"bias":2.4800000000000004,"maeMean":2.4800000000000004,"maeMedian":1,"low":2,"high":17,"coverage":true,"width":15,"pitLower":0.32,"pitUpper":0.41,"empiricalMass":0.09,"logScore":2.4079456086518722},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.8571250000000001,"mean":6.495,"median":6,"bias":1.495,"maeMean":1.495,"maeMedian":1,"low":2,"high":11,"coverage":true,"width":9,"pitLower":0.235,"pitUpper":0.39,"empiricalMass":0.155,"logScore":1.8643301620628905},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.7932000000000001,"mean":3.79,"median":4,"bias":-1.21,"maeMean":1.21,"maeMedian":1,"low":1,"high":7,"coverage":true,"width":6,"pitLower":0.68,"pitUpper":0.82,"empiricalMass":0.14,"logScore":1.9661128563728327},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.6462750000000002,"mean":4.395,"median":4,"bias":-0.6050000000000004,"maeMean":0.6050000000000004,"maeMedian":1,"low":1,"high":9,"coverage":true,"width":8,"pitLower":0.56,"pitUpper":0.725,"empiricalMass":0.165,"logScore":1.8018098050815563}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.01,"1":0.03,"2":0.06,"3":0.065,"4":0.13,"5":0.12,"6":0.1,"7":0.05,"8":0.085,"9":0.07,"10":0.04,"11":0.045,"12":0.055,"13":0.005,"14":0.04,"15":0.015,"16":0.025,"17":0.015,"18":0.01,"19":0.005,"20":0.005,"21":0.005,"24":0.005,"25":0.005,"29":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.055,"1":0.18,"2":0.225,"3":0.18,"4":0.135,"5":0.12,"6":0.06,"7":0.015,"8":0.02,"9":0.01},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.01,"1":0.03,"2":0.06,"3":0.09,"4":0.13,"5":0.09,"6":0.11,"7":0.08,"8":0.055,"9":0.06,"10":0.065,"11":0.05,"12":0.025,"13":0.02,"14":0.02,"15":0.035,"16":0.01,"17":0.02,"18":0.005,"19":0.005,"20":0.005,"21":0.01,"22":0.015},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.005,"2":0.055,"3":0.05,"4":0.125,"5":0.155,"6":0.13,"7":0.15,"8":0.11,"9":0.085,"10":0.055,"11":0.04,"12":0.03,"13":0.005,"14":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.02,"1":0.075,"2":0.175,"3":0.185,"4":0.225,"5":0.14,"6":0.09,"7":0.06,"8":0.025,"10":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.035,"1":0.06,"2":0.105,"3":0.205,"4":0.155,"5":0.165,"6":0.115,"7":0.055,"8":0.045,"9":0.025,"10":0.005,"11":0.01,"12":0.015,"13":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1675900800000,"validUntil":1678492800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5240,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2023","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.31977500000000003,"mean":0.895,"median":1,"bias":0.895,"maeMean":0.895,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.49,"empiricalMass":0.49,"logScore":0.7133498878774648},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.11055000000000004,"mean":0.4,"median":0,"bias":0.4,"maeMean":0.4,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.675,"empiricalMass":0.675,"logScore":0.3930425881096072},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.3052,"mean":0.88,"median":0.5,"bias":0.88,"maeMean":0.88,"maeMedian":0.5,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.5,"empiricalMass":0.5,"logScore":0.6931471805599453},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.27554999999999996,"mean":0.73,"median":0,"bias":0.73,"maeMean":0.73,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.51,"empiricalMass":0.51,"logScore":0.6733445532637656},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.31322500000000003,"mean":0.755,"median":1,"bias":0.755,"maeMean":0.755,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.47,"empiricalMass":0.47,"logScore":0.7550225842780328},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.37227499999999997,"mean":0.835,"median":1,"bias":0.835,"maeMean":0.835,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.43,"empiricalMass":0.43,"logScore":0.843970070294529}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.49,"1":0.295,"2":0.11,"3":0.06,"4":0.025,"5":0.02},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.675,"1":0.255,"2":0.065,"3":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.5,"1":0.29,"2":0.115,"3":0.055,"4":0.025,"6":0.01,"7":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.51,"1":0.31,"2":0.125,"3":0.05,"4":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.47,"1":0.355,"2":0.135,"3":0.03,"4":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.43,"1":0.355,"2":0.185,"3":0.015,"4":0.01,"5":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1678492800000,"validUntil":1678579200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":2,"actual":2,"trainingCount":5257,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2023","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.509525,"mean":1.825,"median":1,"bias":-0.17500000000000004,"maeMean":0.17500000000000004,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":6,"coverage":true,"width":6,"pitLower":0.57,"pitUpper":0.8,"empiricalMass":0.23,"logScore":1.4696759700589417},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.8690249999999999,"mean":0.825,"median":1,"bias":-1.175,"maeMean":1.175,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.82,"pitUpper":0.95,"empiricalMass":0.13,"logScore":2.0402208285265546},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.5466249999999999,"mean":2.005,"median":1,"bias":0.004999999999999893,"maeMean":0.004999999999999893,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":8,"coverage":true,"width":8,"pitLower":0.615,"pitUpper":0.795,"empiricalMass":0.18,"logScore":1.7147984280919266},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.40312499999999996,"mean":1.545,"median":1,"bias":-0.45500000000000007,"maeMean":0.45500000000000007,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.54,"pitUpper":0.79,"empiricalMass":0.25,"logScore":1.3862943611198906},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.7635250000000001,"mean":0.875,"median":1,"bias":-1.125,"maeMean":1.125,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.77,"pitUpper":0.95,"empiricalMass":0.18,"logScore":1.7147984280919266},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.788575,"mean":0.945,"median":1,"bias":-1.0550000000000002,"maeMean":1.0550000000000002,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.75,"pitUpper":0.92,"empiricalMass":0.17,"logScore":1.7719568419318752}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.33,"1":0.24,"2":0.23,"3":0.07,"4":0.025,"5":0.04,"6":0.03,"7":0.01,"9":0.01,"10":0.005,"15":0.005,"30":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.44,"1":0.38,"2":0.13,"3":0.03,"4":0.01,"5":0.005,"6":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.27,"1":0.345,"2":0.18,"3":0.06,"4":0.035,"5":0.02,"6":0.025,"7":0.005,"8":0.02,"10":0.025,"13":0.005,"15":0.005,"29":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.245,"1":0.295,"2":0.25,"3":0.13,"4":0.05,"5":0.02,"6":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.41,"1":0.36,"2":0.18,"3":0.045,"4":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.465,"1":0.285,"2":0.17,"3":0.025,"4":0.035,"5":0.015,"6":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1678492800000,"validUntil":1678579200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":3,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5257,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2023","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.03007499999999999,"mean":0.245,"median":0,"bias":0.245,"maeMean":0.245,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.835,"empiricalMass":0.835,"logScore":0.18032355413128162},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.009124999999999994,"mean":0.105,"median":0,"bias":0.105,"maeMean":0.105,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.905,"empiricalMass":0.905,"logScore":0.0998203352822109},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.030349999999999988,"mean":0.25,"median":0,"bias":0.25,"maeMean":0.25,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.835,"empiricalMass":0.835,"logScore":0.18032355413128162},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.034324999999999994,"mean":0.195,"median":0,"bias":0.195,"maeMean":0.195,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.815,"empiricalMass":0.815,"logScore":0.2045671657412744},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.025824999999999987,"mean":0.175,"median":0,"bias":0.175,"maeMean":0.175,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.84,"empiricalMass":0.84,"logScore":0.1743533871447778},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.013325000000000004,"mean":0.125,"median":0,"bias":0.125,"maeMean":0.125,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.885,"empiricalMass":0.885,"logScore":0.12216763397420753}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.835,"1":0.115,"2":0.035,"3":0.005,"4":0.005,"5":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.905,"1":0.085,"2":0.01},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.835,"1":0.115,"2":0.03,"3":0.005,"4":0.015},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.815,"1":0.175,"2":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.84,"1":0.145,"2":0.015},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.885,"1":0.105,"2":0.01}}},{"issuedAt":1678492800000,"validUntil":1678579200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5257,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2023","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.0005000000000000004,"mean":0.03,"median":0,"bias":0.03,"maeMean":0.03,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.98,"empiricalMass":0.98,"logScore":0.020202707317519466},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.0002249999999999995,"mean":0.015,"median":0,"bias":0.015,"maeMean":0.015,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.985,"empiricalMass":0.985,"logScore":0.015113637810048184},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.0012250000000000039,"mean":0.035,"median":0,"bias":0.035,"maeMean":0.035,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.965,"empiricalMass":0.965,"logScore":0.03562717764315116},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.004225,"mean":0.065,"median":0,"bias":0.065,"maeMean":0.065,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.935,"empiricalMass":0.935,"logScore":0.06720874969344999},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.0002249999999999995,"mean":0.015,"median":0,"bias":0.015,"maeMean":0.015,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.985,"empiricalMass":0.985,"logScore":0.015113637810048184},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.00040000000000000105,"mean":0.02,"median":0,"bias":0.02,"maeMean":0.02,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.98,"empiricalMass":0.98,"logScore":0.020202707317519466}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.98,"1":0.01,"2":0.01},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.985,"1":0.015},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.965,"1":0.035},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.935,"1":0.065},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.985,"1":0.015},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.98,"1":0.02}}},{"issuedAt":1678492800000,"validUntil":1679097600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":2,"actual":7,"trainingCount":5257,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2023","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":2.464925,"mean":13.355,"median":11,"bias":6.355,"maeMean":6.355,"maeMedian":4,"low":3,"high":29,"coverage":true,"width":26,"pitLower":0.24,"pitUpper":0.33,"empiricalMass":0.09,"logScore":2.4079456086518722},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.8368499999999999,"mean":6.2,"median":6,"bias":-0.7999999999999998,"maeMean":0.7999999999999998,"maeMedian":1,"low":2,"high":12,"coverage":true,"width":10,"pitLower":0.59,"pitUpper":0.705,"empiricalMass":0.115,"logScore":2.162823150618887},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":2.215275,"mean":12.385,"median":10,"bias":5.385,"maeMean":5.385,"maeMedian":3,"low":4,"high":27,"coverage":true,"width":23,"pitLower":0.28,"pitUpper":0.345,"empiricalMass":0.065,"logScore":2.7333680090865},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":2.586425,"mean":11.045,"median":11,"bias":4.045,"maeMean":4.045,"maeMedian":4,"low":5,"high":16,"coverage":true,"width":11,"pitLower":0.075,"pitUpper":0.125,"empiricalMass":0.05,"logScore":2.995732273553991},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.5603750000000001,"mean":6.965,"median":7,"bias":-0.03500000000000014,"maeMean":0.03500000000000014,"maeMedian":0,"low":3,"high":12,"coverage":true,"width":9,"pitLower":0.465,"pitUpper":0.63,"empiricalMass":0.165,"logScore":1.8018098050815563},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.9633249999999998,"mean":6.805,"median":6,"bias":-0.19500000000000028,"maeMean":0.19500000000000028,"maeMedian":1,"low":1,"high":15,"coverage":true,"width":14,"pitLower":0.54,"pitUpper":0.635,"empiricalMass":0.095,"logScore":2.353878387381596}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"1":0.005,"2":0.035,"3":0.045,"4":0.045,"5":0.06,"6":0.05,"7":0.09,"8":0.05,"9":0.065,"10":0.03,"11":0.075,"12":0.04,"13":0.045,"14":0.065,"15":0.04,"16":0.04,"17":0.02,"18":0.025,"19":0.015,"20":0.01,"21":0.03,"22":0.005,"23":0.01,"24":0.015,"25":0.005,"26":0.005,"27":0.02,"29":0.01,"33":0.005,"34":0.005,"36":0.005,"37":0.005,"41":0.005,"50":0.005,"51":0.005,"65":0.005,"95":0.005,"102":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"1":0.025,"2":0.075,"3":0.105,"4":0.095,"5":0.135,"6":0.155,"7":0.115,"8":0.095,"9":0.07,"10":0.045,"11":0.025,"12":0.02,"13":0.02,"14":0.015,"19":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.005,"1":0.01,"2":0.01,"3":0.015,"4":0.085,"5":0.085,"6":0.07,"7":0.065,"8":0.045,"9":0.065,"10":0.075,"11":0.05,"12":0.065,"13":0.03,"14":0.04,"15":0.055,"16":0.02,"17":0.03,"18":0.015,"19":0.03,"20":0.005,"21":0.015,"23":0.01,"24":0.015,"25":0.01,"26":0.015,"27":0.015,"29":0.005,"30":0.01,"31":0.005,"33":0.005,"41":0.005,"43":0.005,"48":0.005,"52":0.005,"93":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"2":0.005,"3":0.01,"4":0.01,"5":0.035,"6":0.015,"7":0.05,"8":0.09,"9":0.11,"10":0.1,"11":0.11,"12":0.115,"13":0.14,"14":0.08,"15":0.055,"16":0.03,"17":0.02,"18":0.01,"19":0.015},"recentPoisson":{"2":0.02,"3":0.06,"4":0.07,"5":0.135,"6":0.18,"7":0.165,"8":0.13,"9":0.08,"10":0.06,"11":0.045,"12":0.035,"13":0.015,"17":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.02,"1":0.05,"2":0.085,"3":0.07,"4":0.085,"5":0.115,"6":0.115,"7":0.095,"8":0.075,"9":0.1,"10":0.04,"11":0.03,"12":0.02,"13":0.025,"14":0.01,"15":0.025,"16":0.01,"18":0.01,"20":0.005,"22":0.005,"24":0.005,"25":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1678492800000,"validUntil":1679097600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":3,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5257,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2023","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.65865,"mean":1.68,"median":1,"bias":1.68,"maeMean":1.68,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.35,"empiricalMass":0.35,"logScore":1.0498221244986778},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.28164999999999996,"mean":0.73,"median":1,"bias":0.73,"maeMean":0.73,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.49,"empiricalMass":0.49,"logScore":0.7133498878774648},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.5831999999999999,"mean":1.49,"median":1,"bias":1.49,"maeMean":1.49,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.365,"empiricalMass":0.365,"logScore":1.0078579253996456},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.8264,"mean":1.47,"median":1,"bias":1.47,"maeMean":1.47,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.215,"empiricalMass":0.215,"logScore":1.5371172508544744},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.6189,"mean":1.1,"median":1,"bias":1.1,"maeMean":1.1,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.26,"empiricalMass":0.26,"logScore":1.3470736479666092},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.336925,"mean":0.835,"median":1,"bias":0.835,"maeMean":0.835,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.465,"empiricalMass":0.465,"logScore":0.7657178733947807}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.35,"1":0.25,"2":0.18,"3":0.105,"4":0.03,"5":0.035,"6":0.005,"7":0.015,"9":0.005,"10":0.01,"11":0.005,"12":0.005,"13":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.49,"1":0.37,"2":0.105,"3":0.01,"4":0.02,"8":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.365,"1":0.285,"2":0.165,"3":0.07,"4":0.035,"5":0.035,"6":0.025,"10":0.02},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.215,"1":0.37,"2":0.24,"3":0.09,"4":0.075,"5":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.26,"1":0.485,"2":0.18,"3":0.05,"4":0.02,"5":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.465,"1":0.32,"2":0.15,"3":0.05,"4":0.01,"5":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1678492800000,"validUntil":1679097600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5257,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2023","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.02495,"mean":0.23,"median":0,"bias":0.23,"maeMean":0.23,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.85,"empiricalMass":0.85,"logScore":0.16251892949777494},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.008125000000000007,"mean":0.095,"median":0,"bias":0.095,"maeMean":0.095,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.91,"empiricalMass":0.91,"logScore":0.09431067947124129},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.022999999999999993,"mean":0.18,"median":0,"bias":0.18,"maeMean":0.18,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.85,"empiricalMass":0.85,"logScore":0.16251892949777494},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.03462499999999999,"mean":0.205,"median":0,"bias":0.205,"maeMean":0.205,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.815,"empiricalMass":0.815,"logScore":0.2045671657412744},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.017000000000000015,"mean":0.14,"median":0,"bias":0.14,"maeMean":0.14,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.87,"empiricalMass":0.87,"logScore":0.13926206733350766},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.02260000000000001,"mean":0.16,"median":0,"bias":0.16,"maeMean":0.16,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.85,"empiricalMass":0.85,"logScore":0.16251892949777494}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.85,"1":0.11,"2":0.015,"3":0.01,"4":0.015},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.91,"1":0.085,"2":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.85,"1":0.13,"2":0.01,"3":0.01},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.815,"1":0.165,"2":0.02},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.87,"1":0.12,"2":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.85,"1":0.14,"2":0.01}}},{"issuedAt":1678492800000,"validUntil":1681084800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":2,"actual":24,"trainingCount":5257,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2023","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":16.84935,"mean":54.79,"median":48,"bias":30.79,"maeMean":30.79,"maeMedian":24,"low":23,"high":95,"coverage":true,"width":72,"pitLower":0.05,"pitUpper":0.055,"empiricalMass":0.005,"logScore":5.298317366548036},"rollingETAS":{"crps":1.6084,"mean":26,"median":25.5,"bias":2,"maeMean":2,"maeMedian":1.5,"low":16,"high":37,"coverage":true,"width":21,"pitLower":0.355,"pitUpper":0.405,"empiricalMass":0.05,"logScore":2.995732273553991},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":20.316575000000004,"mean":59.405,"median":53.5,"bias":35.405,"maeMean":35.405,"maeMedian":29.5,"low":25,"high":119,"coverage":false,"width":94,"pitLower":0.025,"pitUpper":0.04,"empiricalMass":0.015,"logScore":4.199705077879927},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":19.60855,"mean":47.62,"median":48,"bias":23.619999999999997,"maeMean":23.619999999999997,"maeMedian":24,"low":35,"high":60,"coverage":false,"width":25,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentPoisson":{"crps":3.75425,"mean":30.33,"median":31,"bias":6.329999999999998,"maeMean":6.329999999999998,"maeMedian":7,"low":20,"high":40,"coverage":true,"width":20,"pitLower":0.13,"pitUpper":0.17,"empiricalMass":0.04,"logScore":3.2188758248682006},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":3.3965999999999994,"mean":29.12,"median":29,"bias":5.120000000000001,"maeMean":5.120000000000001,"maeMedian":5,"low":14,"high":44,"coverage":true,"width":30,"pitLower":0.325,"pitUpper":0.36,"empiricalMass":0.035,"logScore":3.3524072174927233}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"16":0.005,"20":0.005,"21":0.005,"22":0.02,"23":0.015,"24":0.005,"25":0.005,"26":0.01,"27":0.025,"28":0.005,"29":0.015,"30":0.01,"31":0.025,"32":0.02,"33":0.025,"34":0.02,"35":0.02,"36":0.025,"37":0.015,"38":0.01,"39":0.03,"40":0.025,"41":0.02,"42":0.025,"43":0.035,"44":0.005,"45":0.02,"46":0.02,"47":0.03,"48":0.035,"49":0.015,"50":0.005,"51":0.015,"52":0.02,"53":0.03,"54":0.01,"55":0.01,"56":0.015,"57":0.015,"58":0.025,"59":0.01,"60":0.025,"61":0.005,"62":0.005,"66":0.005,"67":0.01,"68":0.015,"69":0.005,"70":0.02,"71":0.005,"72":0.02,"73":0.005,"74":0.02,"75":0.005,"76":0.005,"77":0.01,"79":0.01,"80":0.01,"81":0.01,"85":0.01,"86":0.01,"89":0.01,"91":0.005,"92":0.005,"94":0.005,"95":0.015,"96":0.005,"97":0.005,"100":0.005,"111":0.005,"118":0.005,"128":0.005,"159":0.005,"170":0.005,"249":0.005,"267":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"12":0.015,"13":0.005,"14":0.005,"15":0.02,"16":0.035,"17":0.02,"18":0.025,"19":0.025,"20":0.045,"21":0.05,"22":0.04,"23":0.07,"24":0.05,"25":0.095,"26":0.075,"27":0.065,"28":0.055,"29":0.03,"30":0.045,"31":0.035,"32":0.015,"33":0.05,"34":0.04,"35":0.02,"36":0.01,"37":0.02,"38":0.005,"39":0.005,"40":0.005,"41":0.005,"42":0.005,"43":0.005,"49":0.01},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"13":0.005,"19":0.005,"20":0.005,"21":0.005,"23":0.005,"24":0.015,"25":0.015,"26":0.005,"27":0.02,"28":0.01,"30":0.005,"31":0.025,"32":0.03,"33":0.015,"34":0.015,"35":0.025,"36":0.01,"37":0.03,"38":0.02,"39":0.015,"41":0.02,"42":0.03,"43":0.015,"44":0.01,"45":0.025,"46":0.02,"47":0.025,"48":0.005,"49":0.02,"50":0.01,"51":0.02,"52":0.01,"53":0.01,"54":0.015,"55":0.025,"56":0.01,"57":0.01,"58":0.015,"59":0.005,"60":0.015,"61":0.015,"62":0.015,"63":0.02,"64":0.01,"67":0.015,"68":0.015,"69":0.015,"70":0.015,"71":0.005,"72":0.005,"73":0.005,"74":0.01,"75":0.02,"76":0.015,"77":0.01,"78":0.005,"79":0.015,"80":0.005,"81":0.01,"82":0.005,"83":0.01,"84":0.025,"85":0.005,"88":0.015,"90":0.01,"93":0.01,"95":0.005,"96":0.015,"99":0.005,"101":0.005,"102":0.005,"104":0.005,"106":0.005,"119":0.005,"121":0.005,"124":0.005,"130":0.005,"133":0.005,"142":0.005,"144":0.01,"164":0.005,"174":0.01},"expandingPoisson":{"31":0.005,"32":0.005,"33":0.005,"34":0.025,"35":0.01,"36":0.02,"37":0.015,"38":0.025,"39":0.035,"40":0.025,"41":0.01,"42":0.025,"43":0.05,"44":0.075,"45":0.05,"46":0.075,"47":0.04,"48":0.08,"49":0.055,"50":0.05,"51":0.035,"52":0.04,"53":0.06,"54":0.025,"55":0.02,"56":0.005,"57":0.02,"58":0.035,"59":0.015,"60":0.025,"61":0.02,"62":0.005,"64":0.01,"65":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"17":0.005,"18":0.015,"19":0.015,"20":0.02,"21":0.02,"22":0.025,"23":0.03,"24":0.04,"25":0.06,"26":0.07,"27":0.03,"28":0.055,"29":0.05,"30":0.055,"31":0.085,"32":0.065,"33":0.075,"34":0.04,"35":0.055,"36":0.045,"37":0.02,"38":0.055,"39":0.005,"40":0.015,"41":0.015,"42":0.01,"44":0.01,"45":0.005,"47":0.005,"49":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"3":0.005,"9":0.005,"10":0.005,"12":0.005,"13":0.005,"14":0.03,"15":0.03,"16":0.02,"17":0.04,"18":0.045,"19":0.03,"20":0.02,"21":0.025,"22":0.025,"23":0.035,"24":0.035,"25":0.04,"26":0.025,"27":0.03,"28":0.025,"29":0.03,"30":0.05,"31":0.035,"32":0.025,"33":0.05,"34":0.015,"35":0.02,"36":0.03,"37":0.025,"38":0.04,"39":0.03,"40":0.03,"41":0.04,"42":0.025,"43":0.015,"44":0.015,"45":0.005,"46":0.005,"50":0.015,"51":0.005,"52":0.005,"59":0.005,"67":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1678492800000,"validUntil":1681084800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":3,"actual":1,"trainingCount":5257,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2023","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":3.040725,"mean":6.685,"median":5,"bias":5.685,"maeMean":5.685,"maeMedian":4,"low":1,"high":15,"coverage":true,"width":14,"pitLower":0.01,"pitUpper":0.08,"empiricalMass":0.07,"logScore":2.659260036932778},"rollingETAS":{"crps":1.1454,"mean":2.98,"median":3,"bias":1.98,"maeMean":1.98,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":6,"coverage":true,"width":6,"pitLower":0.08,"pitUpper":0.225,"empiricalMass":0.145,"logScore":1.9310215365615626},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":3.504175,"mean":7.195,"median":6,"bias":6.195,"maeMean":6.195,"maeMedian":5,"low":1,"high":17,"coverage":true,"width":16,"pitLower":0.025,"pitUpper":0.095,"empiricalMass":0.07,"logScore":2.659260036932778},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":3.8696,"mean":6.21,"median":6,"bias":5.21,"maeMean":5.21,"maeMedian":5,"low":2,"high":10,"coverage":false,"width":8,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.01,"empiricalMass":0.01,"logScore":4.605170185988091},"recentPoisson":{"crps":2.0768750000000002,"mean":4.215,"median":4,"bias":3.215,"maeMean":3.215,"maeMedian":3,"low":1,"high":8,"coverage":true,"width":7,"pitLower":0.025,"pitUpper":0.09,"empiricalMass":0.065,"logScore":2.7333680090865},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":2.0716,"mean":4.44,"median":4,"bias":3.4400000000000004,"maeMean":3.4400000000000004,"maeMedian":3,"low":1,"high":9,"coverage":true,"width":8,"pitLower":0.02,"pitUpper":0.11,"empiricalMass":0.09,"logScore":2.4079456086518722}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.01,"1":0.07,"2":0.075,"3":0.115,"4":0.155,"5":0.155,"6":0.04,"7":0.07,"8":0.05,"9":0.055,"10":0.03,"11":0.025,"12":0.045,"13":0.03,"14":0.005,"15":0.02,"18":0.005,"19":0.01,"21":0.01,"24":0.005,"25":0.005,"29":0.005,"30":0.005,"39":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.08,"1":0.145,"2":0.155,"3":0.275,"4":0.18,"5":0.09,"6":0.04,"7":0.01,"8":0.01,"9":0.01,"10":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.025,"1":0.07,"2":0.045,"3":0.12,"4":0.115,"5":0.055,"6":0.08,"7":0.07,"8":0.09,"9":0.09,"10":0.06,"11":0.045,"12":0.015,"13":0.015,"14":0.01,"15":0.035,"16":0.005,"17":0.01,"18":0.01,"19":0.005,"21":0.005,"22":0.005,"23":0.01,"33":0.005,"34":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"1":0.01,"2":0.055,"3":0.06,"4":0.115,"5":0.145,"6":0.19,"7":0.15,"8":0.11,"9":0.075,"10":0.05,"11":0.02,"12":0.005,"13":0.01,"14":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.025,"1":0.065,"2":0.105,"3":0.225,"4":0.17,"5":0.155,"6":0.11,"7":0.05,"8":0.075,"9":0.01,"10":0.005,"12":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.02,"1":0.09,"2":0.14,"3":0.155,"4":0.14,"5":0.14,"6":0.12,"7":0.09,"8":0.04,"9":0.02,"10":0.015,"11":0.02,"12":0.005,"13":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1678492800000,"validUntil":1681084800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5257,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2023","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.22982499999999995,"mean":0.835,"median":0,"bias":0.835,"maeMean":0.835,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.575,"empiricalMass":0.575,"logScore":0.5533852381847867},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.09817500000000001,"mean":0.365,"median":0,"bias":0.365,"maeMean":0.365,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.69,"empiricalMass":0.69,"logScore":0.37106368139083207},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.36817500000000003,"mean":0.975,"median":1,"bias":0.975,"maeMean":0.975,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.465,"empiricalMass":0.465,"logScore":0.7657178733947807},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.27912499999999996,"mean":0.695,"median":1,"bias":0.695,"maeMean":0.695,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.495,"empiricalMass":0.495,"logScore":0.7031975164134467},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.371175,"mean":0.825,"median":1,"bias":0.825,"maeMean":0.825,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.425,"empiricalMass":0.425,"logScore":0.8556661100577202},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.33115,"mean":0.78,"median":1,"bias":0.78,"maeMean":0.78,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.455,"empiricalMass":0.455,"logScore":0.7874578600311866}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.575,"1":0.235,"2":0.09,"3":0.065,"5":0.015,"6":0.01,"8":0.005,"10":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.69,"1":0.265,"2":0.04,"4":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.465,"1":0.275,"2":0.15,"3":0.07,"4":0.015,"5":0.02,"6":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.495,"1":0.355,"2":0.11,"3":0.04},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.425,"1":0.38,"2":0.145,"3":0.045,"4":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.455,"1":0.365,"2":0.14,"3":0.03,"4":0.005,"5":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1681084800000,"validUntil":1681171200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":2,"actual":1,"trainingCount":5281,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2023","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.27080000000000004,"mean":1.38,"median":1,"bias":0.3799999999999999,"maeMean":0.3799999999999999,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.33,"pitUpper":0.65,"empiricalMass":0.32,"logScore":1.1394342831883648},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.2738499999999999,"mean":0.91,"median":1,"bias":-0.08999999999999997,"maeMean":0.08999999999999997,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.46,"pitUpper":0.775,"empiricalMass":0.315,"logScore":1.155182640156504},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.41452500000000003,"mean":1.955,"median":1,"bias":0.9550000000000001,"maeMean":0.9550000000000001,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":8,"coverage":true,"width":8,"pitLower":0.35,"pitUpper":0.605,"empiricalMass":0.255,"logScore":1.3664917338237108},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.27005,"mean":1.5,"median":1,"bias":0.5,"maeMean":0.5,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.195,"pitUpper":0.57,"empiricalMass":0.375,"logScore":0.9808292530117262},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.22650000000000003,"mean":1.05,"median":1,"bias":0.050000000000000044,"maeMean":0.050000000000000044,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.355,"pitUpper":0.695,"empiricalMass":0.34,"logScore":1.0788096613719298},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.317875,"mean":0.855,"median":0,"bias":-0.14500000000000002,"maeMean":0.14500000000000002,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.52,"pitUpper":0.81,"empiricalMass":0.29,"logScore":1.2378743560016174}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.33,"1":0.32,"2":0.18,"3":0.08,"4":0.055,"5":0.01,"6":0.01,"8":0.005,"9":0.01},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.46,"1":0.315,"2":0.125,"3":0.06,"4":0.035,"5":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.35,"1":0.255,"2":0.135,"3":0.085,"4":0.04,"5":0.045,"6":0.02,"7":0.015,"8":0.02,"10":0.005,"11":0.02,"12":0.005,"15":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.195,"1":0.375,"2":0.22,"3":0.155,"4":0.055},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.355,"1":0.34,"2":0.22,"3":0.07,"4":0.015},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.52,"1":0.29,"2":0.095,"3":0.055,"4":0.02,"5":0.005,"6":0.005,"7":0.005,"8":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1681084800000,"validUntil":1681171200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":3,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5281,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2023","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.0169,"mean":0.13,"median":0,"bias":0.13,"maeMean":0.13,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.87,"empiricalMass":0.87,"logScore":0.13926206733350766},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.010099999999999998,"mean":0.11,"median":0,"bias":0.11,"maeMean":0.11,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.9,"empiricalMass":0.9,"logScore":0.10536051565782628},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.041200000000000014,"mean":0.31,"median":0,"bias":0.31,"maeMean":0.31,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.815,"empiricalMass":0.815,"logScore":0.2045671657412744},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.060750000000000026,"mean":0.28,"median":0,"bias":0.28,"maeMean":0.28,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.755,"empiricalMass":0.755,"logScore":0.28103752973311236},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.010000000000000009,"mean":0.1,"median":0,"bias":0.1,"maeMean":0.1,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.9,"empiricalMass":0.9,"logScore":0.10536051565782628},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.015725000000000003,"mean":0.135,"median":0,"bias":0.135,"maeMean":0.135,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.875,"empiricalMass":0.875,"logScore":0.13353139262452263}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.87,"1":0.13},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.9,"1":0.09,"2":0.01},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.815,"1":0.11,"2":0.04,"3":0.025,"4":0.005,"5":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.755,"1":0.22,"2":0.015,"3":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.9,"1":0.1},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.875,"1":0.115,"2":0.01}}},{"issuedAt":1681084800000,"validUntil":1681171200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5281,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2023","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.00002499999999999985,"mean":0.005,"median":0,"bias":0.005,"maeMean":0.005,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.995,"empiricalMass":0.995,"logScore":0.005012541823544286},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.0001250000000000001,"mean":0.015,"median":0,"bias":0.015,"maeMean":0.015,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.99,"empiricalMass":0.99,"logScore":0.01005033585350145},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.0016250000000000014,"mean":0.045,"median":0,"bias":0.045,"maeMean":0.045,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.96,"empiricalMass":0.96,"logScore":0.040821994520255166},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.002024999999999999,"mean":0.045,"median":0,"bias":0.045,"maeMean":0.045,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.955,"empiricalMass":0.955,"logScore":0.046043938501406846},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.0016000000000000042,"mean":0.04,"median":0,"bias":0.04,"maeMean":0.04,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.96,"empiricalMass":0.96,"logScore":0.040821994520255166},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.00042500000000000177,"mean":0.025,"median":0,"bias":0.025,"maeMean":0.025,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.98,"empiricalMass":0.98,"logScore":0.020202707317519466}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.995,"1":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.99,"1":0.005,"2":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.96,"1":0.035,"2":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.955,"1":0.045},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.96,"1":0.04},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.98,"1":0.015,"2":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1681084800000,"validUntil":1681689600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":2,"actual":3,"trainingCount":5281,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2023","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":4.401274999999999,"mean":11.445,"median":9,"bias":8.445,"maeMean":8.445,"maeMedian":6,"low":3,"high":26,"coverage":true,"width":23,"pitLower":0.04,"pitUpper":0.065,"empiricalMass":0.025,"logScore":3.6888794541139363},"rollingETAS":{"crps":1.6072,"mean":6.01,"median":5,"bias":3.01,"maeMean":3.01,"maeMedian":2,"low":1,"high":12,"coverage":true,"width":11,"pitLower":0.09,"pitUpper":0.195,"empiricalMass":0.105,"logScore":2.2537949288246137},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":4.020649999999999,"mean":11.14,"median":9,"bias":8.14,"maeMean":8.14,"maeMedian":6,"low":2,"high":27,"coverage":true,"width":25,"pitLower":0.055,"pitUpper":0.105,"empiricalMass":0.05,"logScore":2.995732273553991},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":6.19335,"mean":10.85,"median":11,"bias":7.85,"maeMean":7.85,"maeMedian":8,"low":6,"high":16,"coverage":false,"width":10,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentPoisson":{"crps":2.362125,"mean":6.705,"median":7,"bias":3.705,"maeMean":3.705,"maeMedian":4,"low":3,"high":11,"coverage":true,"width":8,"pitLower":0.035,"pitUpper":0.11,"empiricalMass":0.075,"logScore":2.5902671654458267},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":1.853125,"mean":6.935,"median":6,"bias":3.9349999999999996,"maeMean":3.9349999999999996,"maeMedian":3,"low":1,"high":15,"coverage":true,"width":14,"pitLower":0.17,"pitUpper":0.275,"empiricalMass":0.105,"logScore":2.2537949288246137}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.005,"1":0.015,"2":0.02,"3":0.025,"4":0.075,"5":0.085,"6":0.06,"7":0.11,"8":0.055,"9":0.055,"10":0.055,"11":0.06,"12":0.035,"13":0.065,"14":0.055,"15":0.02,"16":0.04,"17":0.02,"18":0.025,"19":0.005,"20":0.015,"21":0.015,"22":0.01,"23":0.01,"24":0.005,"25":0.005,"26":0.005,"29":0.005,"30":0.005,"31":0.005,"35":0.005,"36":0.005,"40":0.005,"44":0.005,"48":0.005,"50":0.005,"60":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.01,"1":0.04,"2":0.04,"3":0.105,"4":0.155,"5":0.175,"6":0.09,"7":0.105,"8":0.075,"9":0.07,"10":0.045,"11":0.03,"12":0.025,"13":0.015,"14":0.01,"15":0.005,"17":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.005,"1":0.005,"2":0.045,"3":0.05,"4":0.05,"5":0.1,"6":0.075,"7":0.08,"8":0.06,"9":0.07,"10":0.05,"11":0.075,"12":0.06,"13":0.01,"14":0.015,"15":0.03,"16":0.045,"17":0.03,"18":0.035,"19":0.005,"20":0.025,"21":0.005,"22":0.005,"23":0.01,"25":0.005,"27":0.005,"29":0.005,"30":0.01,"32":0.005,"33":0.005,"37":0.005,"39":0.005,"42":0.005,"43":0.005,"101":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"4":0.01,"5":0.015,"6":0.025,"7":0.065,"8":0.095,"9":0.14,"10":0.14,"11":0.105,"12":0.16,"13":0.09,"14":0.05,"15":0.015,"16":0.045,"17":0.02,"18":0.01,"19":0.005,"20":0.005,"21":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"1":0.01,"2":0.025,"3":0.075,"4":0.11,"5":0.105,"6":0.145,"7":0.145,"8":0.16,"9":0.095,"10":0.05,"11":0.045,"12":0.015,"13":0.02},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.015,"1":0.045,"2":0.11,"3":0.105,"4":0.095,"5":0.105,"6":0.07,"7":0.07,"8":0.055,"9":0.075,"10":0.065,"11":0.05,"12":0.02,"13":0.02,"14":0.02,"15":0.03,"16":0.01,"17":0.005,"18":0.02,"21":0.005,"25":0.005,"32":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1681084800000,"validUntil":1681689600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":3,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5281,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2023","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.512825,"mean":1.325,"median":1,"bias":1.325,"maeMean":1.325,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.39,"empiricalMass":0.39,"logScore":0.941608539858445},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.281475,"mean":0.725,"median":1,"bias":0.725,"maeMean":0.725,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.495,"empiricalMass":0.495,"logScore":0.7031975164134467},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.5779250000000001,"mean":1.475,"median":1,"bias":1.475,"maeMean":1.475,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.36,"empiricalMass":0.36,"logScore":1.0216512475319814},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.7858999999999999,"mean":1.39,"median":1,"bias":1.39,"maeMean":1.39,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.22,"empiricalMass":0.22,"logScore":1.5141277326297755},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.38725,"mean":0.9,"median":1,"bias":0.9,"maeMean":0.9,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.425,"empiricalMass":0.425,"logScore":0.8556661100577202},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.4216,"mean":1.01,"median":1,"bias":1.01,"maeMean":1.01,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.415,"empiricalMass":0.415,"logScore":0.8794767587514388}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.39,"1":0.285,"2":0.175,"3":0.06,"4":0.045,"5":0.01,"6":0.015,"9":0.015,"11":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.495,"1":0.35,"2":0.11,"3":0.025,"4":0.02},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.36,"1":0.295,"2":0.16,"3":0.085,"4":0.055,"5":0.015,"6":0.005,"8":0.005,"9":0.005,"10":0.005,"11":0.005,"18":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.22,"1":0.39,"2":0.24,"3":0.1,"4":0.03,"5":0.02},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.425,"1":0.355,"2":0.13,"3":0.08,"4":0.005,"5":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.415,"1":0.325,"2":0.16,"3":0.06,"4":0.03,"5":0.005,"8":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1681084800000,"validUntil":1681689600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5281,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2023","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.02930000000000002,"mean":0.23,"median":0,"bias":0.23,"maeMean":0.23,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.84,"empiricalMass":0.84,"logScore":0.1743533871447778},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.008199999999999999,"mean":0.1,"median":0,"bias":0.1,"maeMean":0.1,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.91,"empiricalMass":0.91,"logScore":0.09431067947124129},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.018974999999999992,"mean":0.185,"median":0,"bias":0.185,"maeMean":0.185,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.87,"empiricalMass":0.87,"logScore":0.13926206733350766},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.015850000000000017,"mean":0.14,"median":0,"bias":0.14,"maeMean":0.14,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.875,"empiricalMass":0.875,"logScore":0.13353139262452263},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.017125,"mean":0.145,"median":0,"bias":0.145,"maeMean":0.145,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.87,"empiricalMass":0.87,"logScore":0.13926206733350766},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.022724999999999995,"mean":0.165,"median":0,"bias":0.165,"maeMean":0.165,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.85,"empiricalMass":0.85,"logScore":0.16251892949777494}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.84,"1":0.1,"2":0.05,"3":0.01},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.91,"1":0.08,"2":0.01},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.87,"1":0.085,"2":0.04,"4":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.875,"1":0.11,"2":0.015},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.87,"1":0.115,"2":0.015},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.85,"1":0.135,"2":0.015}}},{"issuedAt":1681084800000,"validUntil":1683676800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":2,"actual":26,"trainingCount":5281,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2023","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":16.701974999999997,"mean":56.615,"median":49,"bias":30.615000000000002,"maeMean":30.615000000000002,"maeMedian":23,"low":28,"high":111,"coverage":false,"width":83,"pitLower":0.02,"pitUpper":0.035,"empiricalMass":0.015,"logScore":4.199705077879927},"rollingETAS":{"crps":1.5829999999999997,"mean":25.65,"median":25,"bias":-0.3500000000000014,"maeMean":0.3500000000000014,"maeMedian":1,"low":14,"high":39,"coverage":true,"width":25,"pitLower":0.54,"pitUpper":0.58,"empiricalMass":0.04,"logScore":3.2188758248682006},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":12.139899999999999,"mean":49.7,"median":44,"bias":23.700000000000003,"maeMean":23.700000000000003,"maeMedian":18,"low":23,"high":91,"coverage":true,"width":68,"pitLower":0.09,"pitUpper":0.12,"empiricalMass":0.03,"logScore":3.506557897319982},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":17.280975,"mean":46.925,"median":47,"bias":20.924999999999997,"maeMean":20.924999999999997,"maeMedian":21,"low":36,"high":58,"coverage":false,"width":22,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentPoisson":{"crps":1.7990499999999998,"mean":28.74,"median":29,"bias":2.7399999999999984,"maeMean":2.7399999999999984,"maeMedian":3,"low":19,"high":36,"coverage":true,"width":17,"pitLower":0.275,"pitUpper":0.34,"empiricalMass":0.065,"logScore":2.7333680090865},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":2.991175000000001,"mean":29.625,"median":28,"bias":3.625,"maeMean":3.625,"maeMedian":2,"low":14,"high":49,"coverage":true,"width":35,"pitLower":0.43,"pitUpper":0.455,"empiricalMass":0.025,"logScore":3.6888794541139363}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"11":0.005,"17":0.005,"23":0.01,"26":0.015,"27":0.01,"28":0.02,"29":0.01,"30":0.025,"31":0.025,"32":0.025,"33":0.005,"34":0.04,"35":0.01,"36":0.035,"37":0.01,"38":0.03,"39":0.03,"40":0.015,"41":0.025,"42":0.025,"43":0.015,"44":0.035,"45":0.035,"47":0.015,"48":0.015,"49":0.02,"50":0.02,"51":0.025,"52":0.015,"53":0.015,"54":0.01,"55":0.005,"56":0.01,"57":0.01,"58":0.01,"59":0.005,"60":0.015,"61":0.005,"62":0.01,"63":0.015,"64":0.015,"66":0.01,"67":0.015,"68":0.01,"69":0.015,"70":0.01,"71":0.025,"72":0.005,"73":0.005,"74":0.005,"75":0.01,"76":0.005,"77":0.015,"78":0.02,"80":0.01,"81":0.005,"83":0.005,"84":0.005,"87":0.005,"90":0.005,"91":0.005,"92":0.005,"93":0.005,"98":0.01,"99":0.005,"101":0.01,"102":0.01,"103":0.005,"106":0.005,"108":0.005,"111":0.005,"113":0.005,"115":0.005,"118":0.005,"122":0.005,"123":0.005,"128":0.005,"130":0.005,"133":0.005,"160":0.005,"180":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"11":0.01,"12":0.015,"13":0.01,"14":0.015,"15":0.005,"16":0.01,"17":0.025,"18":0.02,"19":0.04,"20":0.07,"21":0.06,"22":0.055,"23":0.06,"24":0.075,"25":0.07,"26":0.04,"27":0.06,"28":0.05,"29":0.055,"30":0.025,"31":0.035,"32":0.045,"33":0.04,"34":0.02,"35":0.005,"36":0.015,"37":0.01,"38":0.005,"39":0.025,"40":0.01,"41":0.01,"42":0.005,"48":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"14":0.005,"15":0.005,"17":0.005,"18":0.005,"19":0.015,"22":0.01,"23":0.01,"24":0.02,"25":0.015,"26":0.03,"28":0.025,"29":0.01,"30":0.015,"31":0.03,"32":0.05,"33":0.025,"34":0.015,"35":0.015,"36":0.03,"37":0.02,"38":0.02,"39":0.03,"40":0.01,"41":0.01,"42":0.04,"43":0.02,"44":0.03,"45":0.015,"46":0.005,"47":0.025,"48":0.005,"49":0.015,"50":0.025,"51":0.03,"52":0.015,"53":0.015,"54":0.03,"57":0.015,"58":0.02,"59":0.015,"60":0.005,"61":0.02,"62":0.01,"63":0.005,"64":0.02,"65":0.01,"66":0.01,"67":0.01,"70":0.025,"72":0.005,"74":0.005,"75":0.005,"77":0.02,"78":0.005,"79":0.015,"80":0.01,"84":0.005,"86":0.005,"88":0.005,"89":0.005,"91":0.01,"95":0.01,"101":0.005,"106":0.005,"121":0.005,"123":0.005,"149":0.005,"158":0.005,"192":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"30":0.005,"31":0.005,"32":0.01,"33":0.005,"34":0.005,"35":0.015,"36":0.005,"37":0.01,"38":0.02,"39":0.035,"40":0.035,"41":0.05,"42":0.06,"43":0.055,"44":0.04,"45":0.08,"46":0.025,"47":0.065,"48":0.075,"49":0.065,"50":0.04,"51":0.07,"52":0.025,"53":0.075,"54":0.015,"55":0.02,"56":0.015,"57":0.01,"58":0.025,"59":0.01,"61":0.015,"62":0.005,"63":0.005,"67":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"17":0.015,"18":0.01,"19":0.025,"20":0.015,"21":0.015,"22":0.02,"23":0.075,"24":0.045,"25":0.055,"26":0.065,"27":0.085,"28":0.05,"29":0.085,"30":0.045,"31":0.08,"32":0.06,"33":0.065,"34":0.06,"35":0.055,"36":0.025,"37":0.005,"38":0.02,"39":0.005,"40":0.005,"41":0.005,"44":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"8":0.005,"9":0.005,"11":0.005,"12":0.005,"13":0.01,"14":0.02,"15":0.025,"16":0.04,"17":0.04,"18":0.03,"19":0.035,"20":0.035,"21":0.02,"22":0.035,"23":0.03,"24":0.06,"25":0.03,"26":0.025,"27":0.03,"28":0.035,"29":0.04,"30":0.015,"31":0.03,"32":0.04,"33":0.025,"34":0.01,"35":0.02,"36":0.025,"37":0.015,"38":0.035,"39":0.015,"40":0.02,"41":0.01,"42":0.01,"43":0.02,"44":0.01,"45":0.04,"46":0.005,"47":0.015,"48":0.02,"49":0.015,"50":0.015,"52":0.005,"57":0.01,"58":0.005,"60":0.005,"64":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1681084800000,"validUntil":1683676800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":3,"actual":5,"trainingCount":5281,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2023","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":1.093925,"mean":7.005,"median":6,"bias":2.005,"maeMean":2.005,"maeMedian":1,"low":1,"high":19,"coverage":true,"width":18,"pitLower":0.395,"pitUpper":0.475,"empiricalMass":0.08,"logScore":2.5257286443082556},"rollingETAS":{"crps":1.356425,"mean":2.975,"median":3,"bias":-2.025,"maeMean":2.025,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":6,"coverage":true,"width":6,"pitLower":0.805,"pitUpper":0.92,"empiricalMass":0.115,"logScore":2.162823150618887},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.8632499999999999,"mean":6.08,"median":5,"bias":1.08,"maeMean":1.08,"maeMedian":0,"low":1,"high":14,"coverage":true,"width":13,"pitLower":0.46,"pitUpper":0.57,"empiricalMass":0.11,"logScore":2.2072749131897207},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.7406999999999999,"mean":6.14,"median":6,"bias":1.1399999999999997,"maeMean":1.1399999999999997,"maeMedian":1,"low":2,"high":10,"coverage":true,"width":8,"pitLower":0.28,"pitUpper":0.425,"empiricalMass":0.145,"logScore":1.9310215365615626},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.7718499999999997,"mean":4.05,"median":4,"bias":-0.9500000000000002,"maeMean":0.9500000000000002,"maeMedian":1,"low":1,"high":8,"coverage":true,"width":7,"pitLower":0.62,"pitUpper":0.76,"empiricalMass":0.14,"logScore":1.9661128563728327},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":1.03915,"mean":3.67,"median":3,"bias":-1.33,"maeMean":1.33,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":9,"coverage":true,"width":9,"pitLower":0.69,"pitUpper":0.805,"empiricalMass":0.115,"logScore":2.162823150618887}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.015,"1":0.04,"2":0.095,"3":0.105,"4":0.14,"5":0.08,"6":0.085,"7":0.065,"8":0.09,"9":0.065,"10":0.03,"11":0.035,"12":0.035,"13":0.025,"14":0.015,"15":0.005,"16":0.015,"17":0.005,"19":0.02,"20":0.015,"21":0.005,"23":0.005,"24":0.005,"34":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.06,"1":0.145,"2":0.24,"3":0.23,"4":0.13,"5":0.115,"6":0.035,"7":0.02,"8":0.02,"11":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.03,"1":0.065,"2":0.09,"3":0.13,"4":0.145,"5":0.11,"6":0.06,"7":0.09,"8":0.1,"9":0.035,"10":0.02,"11":0.015,"12":0.015,"13":0.02,"14":0.025,"15":0.005,"18":0.01,"19":0.005,"20":0.005,"21":0.005,"22":0.005,"23":0.005,"25":0.005,"30":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.005,"1":0.01,"2":0.035,"3":0.095,"4":0.135,"5":0.145,"6":0.16,"7":0.115,"8":0.115,"9":0.09,"10":0.05,"11":0.025,"12":0.02},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.02,"1":0.09,"2":0.155,"3":0.2,"4":0.155,"5":0.14,"6":0.09,"7":0.07,"8":0.04,"9":0.02,"10":0.02},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.05,"1":0.125,"2":0.2,"3":0.195,"4":0.12,"5":0.115,"6":0.07,"7":0.05,"8":0.015,"9":0.025,"10":0.025,"12":0.005,"16":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1681084800000,"validUntil":1683676800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":4,"actual":1,"trainingCount":5281,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2023","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.34835000000000005,"mean":0.82,"median":0,"bias":-0.18000000000000005,"maeMean":0.18000000000000005,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.54,"pitUpper":0.78,"empiricalMass":0.24,"logScore":1.4271163556401458},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.49917500000000004,"mean":0.355,"median":0,"bias":-0.645,"maeMean":0.645,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0.705,"pitUpper":0.955,"empiricalMass":0.25,"logScore":1.3862943611198906},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.4324,"mean":0.58,"median":0,"bias":-0.42000000000000004,"maeMean":0.42000000000000004,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.64,"pitUpper":0.86,"empiricalMass":0.22,"logScore":1.5141277326297755},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.21985000000000005,"mean":0.81,"median":1,"bias":-0.18999999999999995,"maeMean":0.18999999999999995,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.43,"pitUpper":0.82,"empiricalMass":0.39,"logScore":0.941608539858445},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.23352500000000004,"mean":0.775,"median":1,"bias":-0.22499999999999998,"maeMean":0.22499999999999998,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.45,"pitUpper":0.83,"empiricalMass":0.38,"logScore":0.9675840262617056},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.222675,"mean":0.735,"median":1,"bias":-0.265,"maeMean":0.265,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.445,"pitUpper":0.845,"empiricalMass":0.4,"logScore":0.916290731874155}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.54,"1":0.24,"2":0.145,"3":0.025,"4":0.035,"5":0.015},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.705,"1":0.25,"2":0.035,"3":0.005,"4":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.64,"1":0.22,"2":0.085,"3":0.045,"4":0.005,"7":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.43,"1":0.39,"2":0.13,"3":0.045,"5":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.45,"1":0.38,"2":0.125,"3":0.035,"4":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.445,"1":0.4,"2":0.13,"3":0.025}}},{"issuedAt":1683676800000,"validUntil":1683763200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":2,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5307,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2023","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.71485,"mean":1.7,"median":1,"bias":1.7,"maeMean":1.7,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":6,"coverage":true,"width":6,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.31,"empiricalMass":0.31,"logScore":1.171182981502945},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.435025,"mean":1.065,"median":1,"bias":1.065,"maeMean":1.065,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.41,"empiricalMass":0.41,"logScore":0.8915981192837836},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.81825,"mean":1.76,"median":1,"bias":1.76,"maeMean":1.76,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.265,"empiricalMass":0.265,"logScore":1.3280254529959148},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.9301999999999999,"mean":1.64,"median":1,"bias":1.64,"maeMean":1.64,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.2,"empiricalMass":0.2,"logScore":1.6094379124341003},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.5353749999999999,"mean":1.055,"median":1,"bias":1.055,"maeMean":1.055,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.335,"empiricalMass":0.335,"logScore":1.0936247471570706},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.39902499999999996,"mean":0.975,"median":1,"bias":0.975,"maeMean":0.975,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.435,"empiricalMass":0.435,"logScore":0.8324092478934529}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.31,"1":0.305,"2":0.155,"3":0.08,"4":0.055,"5":0.035,"6":0.02,"7":0.02,"9":0.01,"10":0.01},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.41,"1":0.32,"2":0.165,"3":0.06,"4":0.02,"5":0.01,"6":0.005,"7":0.005,"8":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.265,"1":0.3,"2":0.185,"3":0.12,"4":0.05,"5":0.045,"6":0.005,"7":0.01,"8":0.005,"9":0.005,"11":0.005,"13":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.2,"1":0.325,"2":0.24,"3":0.145,"4":0.055,"5":0.03,"6":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.335,"1":0.375,"2":0.195,"3":0.09,"4":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.435,"1":0.3,"2":0.175,"3":0.055,"4":0.02,"5":0.01,"6":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1683676800000,"validUntil":1683763200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":3,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5307,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2023","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.033025,"mean":0.205,"median":0,"bias":0.205,"maeMean":0.205,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.82,"empiricalMass":0.82,"logScore":0.19845093872383832},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.017299999999999982,"mean":0.15,"median":0,"bias":0.15,"maeMean":0.15,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.87,"empiricalMass":0.87,"logScore":0.13926206733350766},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.022949999999999998,"mean":0.18,"median":0,"bias":0.18,"maeMean":0.18,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.85,"empiricalMass":0.85,"logScore":0.16251892949777494},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.03242500000000001,"mean":0.185,"median":0,"bias":0.185,"maeMean":0.185,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.82,"empiricalMass":0.82,"logScore":0.19845093872383832},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.015725000000000003,"mean":0.135,"median":0,"bias":0.135,"maeMean":0.135,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.875,"empiricalMass":0.875,"logScore":0.13353139262452263},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.023150000000000004,"mean":0.18,"median":0,"bias":0.18,"maeMean":0.18,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.85,"empiricalMass":0.85,"logScore":0.16251892949777494}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.82,"1":0.155,"2":0.025},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.87,"1":0.11,"2":0.02},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.85,"1":0.13,"2":0.015,"4":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.82,"1":0.175,"2":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.875,"1":0.115,"2":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.85,"1":0.125,"2":0.02,"3":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1683676800000,"validUntil":1683763200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5307,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2023","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.0006250000000000006,"mean":0.025,"median":0,"bias":0.025,"maeMean":0.025,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.975,"empiricalMass":0.975,"logScore":0.025317807984289897},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.00040000000000000105,"mean":0.02,"median":0,"bias":0.02,"maeMean":0.02,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.98,"empiricalMass":0.98,"logScore":0.020202707317519466},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.0002249999999999995,"mean":0.015,"median":0,"bias":0.015,"maeMean":0.015,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.985,"empiricalMass":0.985,"logScore":0.015113637810048184},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.002024999999999999,"mean":0.045,"median":0,"bias":0.045,"maeMean":0.045,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.955,"empiricalMass":0.955,"logScore":0.046043938501406846},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.0006499999999999978,"mean":0.03,"median":0,"bias":0.03,"maeMean":0.03,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.975,"empiricalMass":0.975,"logScore":0.025317807984289897},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.0002249999999999995,"mean":0.015,"median":0,"bias":0.015,"maeMean":0.015,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.985,"empiricalMass":0.985,"logScore":0.015113637810048184}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.975,"1":0.025},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.98,"1":0.02},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.985,"1":0.015},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.955,"1":0.045},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.975,"1":0.02,"2":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.985,"1":0.015}}},{"issuedAt":1683676800000,"validUntil":1684281600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":2,"actual":9,"trainingCount":5307,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2023","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":1.9639499999999996,"mean":13.76,"median":11,"bias":4.76,"maeMean":4.76,"maeMedian":2,"low":3,"high":37,"coverage":true,"width":34,"pitLower":0.35,"pitUpper":0.415,"empiricalMass":0.065,"logScore":2.7333680090865},"rollingETAS":{"crps":1.73075,"mean":6.58,"median":6,"bias":-2.42,"maeMean":2.42,"maeMedian":3,"low":2,"high":13,"coverage":true,"width":11,"pitLower":0.76,"pitUpper":0.815,"empiricalMass":0.055,"logScore":2.900422093749666},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":1.9422500000000005,"mean":12.87,"median":11,"bias":3.869999999999999,"maeMean":3.869999999999999,"maeMedian":2,"low":3,"high":26,"coverage":true,"width":23,"pitLower":0.315,"pitUpper":0.4,"empiricalMass":0.085,"logScore":2.4651040224918206},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":1.124325,"mean":10.925,"median":11,"bias":1.9250000000000007,"maeMean":1.9250000000000007,"maeMedian":2,"low":6,"high":17,"coverage":true,"width":11,"pitLower":0.26,"pitUpper":0.385,"empiricalMass":0.125,"logScore":2.0794415416798357},"recentPoisson":{"crps":1.102975,"mean":7.225,"median":7,"bias":-1.7750000000000004,"maeMean":1.7750000000000004,"maeMedian":2,"low":3,"high":12,"coverage":true,"width":9,"pitLower":0.7,"pitUpper":0.805,"empiricalMass":0.105,"logScore":2.2537949288246137},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":1.8988749999999999,"mean":6.475,"median":6,"bias":-2.5250000000000004,"maeMean":2.5250000000000004,"maeMedian":3,"low":1,"high":15,"coverage":true,"width":14,"pitLower":0.755,"pitUpper":0.815,"empiricalMass":0.06,"logScore":2.8134107167600364}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"1":0.02,"2":0.025,"3":0.035,"4":0.045,"5":0.045,"6":0.025,"7":0.075,"8":0.08,"9":0.065,"10":0.075,"11":0.05,"12":0.08,"13":0.04,"14":0.015,"15":0.03,"16":0.02,"17":0.035,"18":0.02,"19":0.02,"20":0.035,"21":0.015,"22":0.015,"23":0.005,"24":0.02,"25":0.01,"26":0.005,"28":0.015,"31":0.01,"34":0.005,"35":0.005,"36":0.005,"37":0.005,"41":0.01,"42":0.005,"45":0.005,"47":0.015,"55":0.005,"57":0.005,"63":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.005,"1":0.03,"2":0.075,"3":0.105,"4":0.09,"5":0.125,"6":0.125,"7":0.11,"8":0.095,"9":0.055,"10":0.055,"11":0.055,"12":0.015,"13":0.02,"14":0.005,"15":0.005,"16":0.01,"17":0.005,"19":0.005,"23":0.005,"26":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.005,"1":0.005,"2":0.005,"3":0.05,"4":0.045,"5":0.04,"6":0.055,"7":0.045,"8":0.065,"9":0.085,"10":0.075,"11":0.05,"12":0.045,"13":0.04,"14":0.04,"15":0.055,"16":0.015,"17":0.04,"18":0.035,"19":0.025,"20":0.025,"21":0.025,"22":0.025,"23":0.02,"24":0.005,"25":0.015,"26":0.015,"27":0.005,"28":0.005,"30":0.01,"31":0.01,"33":0.005,"38":0.005,"45":0.005,"48":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"3":0.005,"4":0.02,"5":0.015,"6":0.05,"7":0.05,"8":0.12,"9":0.125,"10":0.095,"11":0.115,"12":0.055,"13":0.12,"14":0.075,"15":0.055,"16":0.04,"17":0.03,"18":0.02,"20":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"1":0.005,"2":0.03,"3":0.04,"4":0.085,"5":0.115,"6":0.13,"7":0.13,"8":0.165,"9":0.105,"10":0.085,"11":0.05,"12":0.035,"13":0.01,"14":0.01,"16":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.03,"1":0.06,"2":0.07,"3":0.125,"4":0.105,"5":0.08,"6":0.09,"7":0.09,"8":0.105,"9":0.06,"10":0.03,"11":0.025,"12":0.01,"13":0.04,"14":0.02,"15":0.01,"16":0.02,"17":0.005,"18":0.01,"19":0.005,"20":0.005,"21":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1683676800000,"validUntil":1684281600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":3,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5307,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2023","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.722475,"mean":1.855,"median":1,"bias":1.855,"maeMean":1.855,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":7,"coverage":true,"width":7,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.34,"empiricalMass":0.34,"logScore":1.0788096613719298},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.2624,"mean":0.76,"median":0,"bias":0.76,"maeMean":0.76,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.525,"empiricalMass":0.525,"logScore":0.6443570163905132},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.764925,"mean":1.595,"median":1,"bias":1.595,"maeMean":1.595,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.315,"empiricalMass":0.315,"logScore":1.155182640156504},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.7872999999999999,"mean":1.41,"median":1,"bias":1.41,"maeMean":1.41,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.225,"empiricalMass":0.225,"logScore":1.491654876777717},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.47952499999999987,"mean":1.005,"median":1,"bias":1.005,"maeMean":1.005,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.365,"empiricalMass":0.365,"logScore":1.0078579253996456},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.28312499999999996,"mean":0.845,"median":0,"bias":0.845,"maeMean":0.845,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.535,"empiricalMass":0.535,"logScore":0.6254885320861304}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.34,"1":0.245,"2":0.16,"3":0.09,"4":0.06,"5":0.035,"6":0.015,"7":0.015,"8":0.01,"9":0.01,"11":0.01,"12":0.005,"14":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.525,"1":0.295,"2":0.12,"3":0.035,"4":0.015,"5":0.005,"7":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.315,"1":0.225,"2":0.2,"3":0.145,"4":0.06,"5":0.04,"6":0.01,"7":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.225,"1":0.38,"2":0.23,"3":0.11,"4":0.035,"5":0.02},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.365,"1":0.37,"2":0.19,"3":0.055,"4":0.015,"6":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.535,"1":0.23,"2":0.13,"3":0.085,"4":0.005,"5":0.01,"6":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1683676800000,"validUntil":1684281600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5307,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2023","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.046625,"mean":0.265,"median":0,"bias":0.265,"maeMean":0.265,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.79,"empiricalMass":0.79,"logScore":0.23572233352106983},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.0072499999999999926,"mean":0.09,"median":0,"bias":0.09,"maeMean":0.09,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.915,"empiricalMass":0.915,"logScore":0.0888312137066157},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.03672500000000001,"mean":0.215,"median":0,"bias":0.215,"maeMean":0.215,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.81,"empiricalMass":0.81,"logScore":0.21072103131565253},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.024125000000000008,"mean":0.165,"median":0,"bias":0.165,"maeMean":0.165,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.845,"empiricalMass":0.845,"logScore":0.16841865162496325},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.044999999999999984,"mean":0.24,"median":0,"bias":0.24,"maeMean":0.24,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.79,"empiricalMass":0.79,"logScore":0.23572233352106983},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.014399999999999996,"mean":0.12,"median":0,"bias":0.12,"maeMean":0.12,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.88,"empiricalMass":0.88,"logScore":0.12783337150988489}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.79,"1":0.16,"2":0.045,"3":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.915,"1":0.08,"2":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.81,"1":0.165,"2":0.025},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.845,"1":0.145,"2":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.79,"1":0.18,"2":0.03},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.88,"1":0.12}}},{"issuedAt":1683676800000,"validUntil":1686268800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":2,"actual":33,"trainingCount":5307,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2023","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":12.209425000000001,"mean":56.865,"median":50,"bias":23.865000000000002,"maeMean":23.865000000000002,"maeMedian":17,"low":27,"high":104,"coverage":true,"width":77,"pitLower":0.105,"pitUpper":0.13,"empiricalMass":0.025,"logScore":3.6888794541139363},"rollingETAS":{"crps":4.6668,"mean":25.98,"median":25,"bias":-7.02,"maeMean":7.02,"maeMedian":8,"low":16,"high":38,"coverage":true,"width":22,"pitLower":0.84,"pitUpper":0.855,"empiricalMass":0.015,"logScore":4.199705077879927},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":12.858774999999998,"mean":58.045,"median":53,"bias":25.045,"maeMean":25.045,"maeMedian":20,"low":27,"high":104,"coverage":true,"width":77,"pitLower":0.12,"pitUpper":0.135,"empiricalMass":0.015,"logScore":4.199705077879927},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":9.775875,"mean":46.795,"median":46,"bias":13.795000000000002,"maeMean":13.795000000000002,"maeMedian":13,"low":36,"high":59,"coverage":false,"width":23,"pitLower":0.005,"pitUpper":0.01,"empiricalMass":0.005,"logScore":5.298317366548036},"recentPoisson":{"crps":2.0906749999999996,"mean":29.775,"median":29,"bias":-3.2250000000000014,"maeMean":3.2250000000000014,"maeMedian":4,"low":22,"high":39,"coverage":true,"width":17,"pitLower":0.705,"pitUpper":0.755,"empiricalMass":0.05,"logScore":2.995732273553991},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":3.0222249999999997,"mean":29.895,"median":29,"bias":-3.1050000000000004,"maeMean":3.1050000000000004,"maeMedian":4,"low":16,"high":46,"coverage":true,"width":30,"pitLower":0.62,"pitUpper":0.645,"empiricalMass":0.025,"logScore":3.6888794541139363}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"16":0.005,"19":0.005,"22":0.005,"23":0.005,"24":0.005,"25":0.01,"26":0.01,"27":0.015,"28":0.01,"29":0.015,"30":0.01,"31":0.005,"32":0.005,"33":0.025,"34":0.01,"35":0.005,"36":0.025,"37":0.015,"38":0.02,"39":0.03,"40":0.01,"41":0.035,"42":0.025,"43":0.03,"44":0.03,"46":0.035,"47":0.01,"48":0.035,"49":0.035,"50":0.025,"51":0.03,"52":0.01,"53":0.015,"54":0.02,"55":0.015,"56":0.025,"57":0.005,"58":0.03,"59":0.005,"60":0.01,"61":0.01,"62":0.015,"63":0.01,"64":0.01,"66":0.005,"67":0.015,"70":0.005,"71":0.015,"72":0.01,"73":0.01,"74":0.01,"76":0.03,"77":0.005,"78":0.005,"80":0.01,"81":0.015,"82":0.02,"83":0.015,"84":0.005,"86":0.015,"89":0.005,"90":0.005,"91":0.005,"94":0.005,"95":0.005,"100":0.005,"101":0.005,"104":0.01,"105":0.005,"106":0.01,"107":0.005,"109":0.005,"126":0.005,"135":0.005,"143":0.005,"146":0.005,"183":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"10":0.005,"13":0.015,"14":0.015,"16":0.035,"17":0.03,"18":0.03,"19":0.05,"20":0.04,"21":0.045,"22":0.07,"23":0.045,"24":0.075,"25":0.07,"26":0.055,"27":0.055,"28":0.035,"29":0.07,"30":0.025,"31":0.04,"32":0.035,"33":0.015,"34":0.025,"35":0.015,"36":0.02,"37":0.005,"38":0.03,"39":0.005,"40":0.015,"41":0.01,"43":0.01,"45":0.005,"57":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"19":0.01,"21":0.005,"22":0.005,"24":0.015,"25":0.01,"27":0.015,"29":0.015,"30":0.015,"32":0.03,"33":0.015,"34":0.005,"35":0.01,"36":0.035,"37":0.01,"38":0.025,"39":0.03,"40":0.015,"41":0.02,"42":0.015,"43":0.035,"44":0.02,"45":0.005,"46":0.015,"47":0.025,"48":0.01,"49":0.015,"50":0.02,"51":0.015,"52":0.03,"53":0.025,"54":0.025,"55":0.02,"56":0.015,"57":0.005,"58":0.025,"59":0.02,"60":0.015,"61":0.01,"62":0.025,"63":0.02,"65":0.005,"66":0.005,"67":0.005,"68":0.015,"69":0.02,"70":0.005,"71":0.015,"72":0.015,"73":0.01,"74":0.01,"75":0.01,"77":0.005,"79":0.01,"81":0.01,"82":0.01,"83":0.01,"85":0.005,"87":0.005,"88":0.005,"89":0.005,"91":0.01,"92":0.01,"94":0.01,"95":0.005,"99":0.02,"100":0.005,"101":0.005,"103":0.005,"104":0.005,"109":0.005,"110":0.005,"114":0.005,"115":0.01,"116":0.005,"122":0.005,"131":0.005,"155":0.005,"183":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"31":0.005,"33":0.005,"35":0.01,"36":0.03,"37":0.02,"38":0.055,"39":0.03,"40":0.05,"41":0.04,"42":0.06,"43":0.075,"44":0.04,"45":0.045,"46":0.055,"47":0.06,"48":0.04,"49":0.06,"50":0.06,"51":0.015,"52":0.055,"53":0.02,"54":0.025,"55":0.02,"56":0.015,"57":0.02,"58":0.015,"59":0.025,"60":0.01,"61":0.01,"62":0.005,"65":0.01,"66":0.005,"67":0.005,"74":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"16":0.01,"18":0.015,"19":0.005,"20":0.005,"21":0.01,"22":0.02,"23":0.035,"24":0.04,"25":0.06,"26":0.06,"27":0.08,"28":0.075,"29":0.095,"30":0.07,"31":0.07,"32":0.055,"33":0.05,"34":0.055,"35":0.035,"36":0.055,"37":0.025,"38":0.02,"39":0.02,"40":0.02,"41":0.005,"42":0.005,"45":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"8":0.005,"12":0.01,"13":0.005,"14":0.025,"16":0.015,"17":0.02,"18":0.035,"19":0.045,"20":0.025,"21":0.03,"22":0.065,"23":0.025,"24":0.035,"25":0.04,"26":0.025,"27":0.02,"28":0.04,"29":0.05,"30":0.035,"31":0.035,"32":0.035,"33":0.025,"34":0.02,"35":0.04,"36":0.01,"37":0.045,"38":0.04,"39":0.03,"40":0.04,"41":0.01,"42":0.01,"43":0.01,"44":0.03,"45":0.015,"46":0.005,"47":0.01,"48":0.01,"49":0.005,"51":0.005,"52":0.005,"53":0.005,"54":0.005,"63":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1683676800000,"validUntil":1686268800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":3,"actual":8,"trainingCount":5307,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2023","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":1.3950749999999998,"mean":6.785,"median":6,"bias":-1.2149999999999999,"maeMean":1.2149999999999999,"maeMedian":2,"low":1,"high":16,"coverage":true,"width":15,"pitLower":0.66,"pitUpper":0.725,"empiricalMass":0.065,"logScore":2.7333680090865},"rollingETAS":{"crps":3.9232250000000004,"mean":3.025,"median":3,"bias":-4.975,"maeMean":4.975,"maeMedian":5,"low":0,"high":7,"coverage":false,"width":7,"pitLower":0.97,"pitUpper":0.99,"empiricalMass":0.02,"logScore":3.912023005428146},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":1.25345,"mean":6.94,"median":6,"bias":-1.0599999999999996,"maeMean":1.0599999999999996,"maeMedian":2,"low":1,"high":15,"coverage":true,"width":14,"pitLower":0.62,"pitUpper":0.705,"empiricalMass":0.085,"logScore":2.4651040224918206},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":1.157275,"mean":6.175,"median":6,"bias":-1.8250000000000002,"maeMean":1.8250000000000002,"maeMedian":2,"low":3,"high":10,"coverage":true,"width":7,"pitLower":0.73,"pitUpper":0.86,"empiricalMass":0.13,"logScore":2.0402208285265546},"recentPoisson":{"crps":2.80765,"mean":4.14,"median":4,"bias":-3.8600000000000003,"maeMean":3.8600000000000003,"maeMedian":4,"low":1,"high":8,"coverage":true,"width":7,"pitLower":0.94,"pitUpper":0.965,"empiricalMass":0.025,"logScore":3.6888794541139363},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":2.37795,"mean":4.57,"median":5,"bias":-3.4299999999999997,"maeMean":3.4299999999999997,"maeMedian":3,"low":1,"high":10,"coverage":true,"width":9,"pitLower":0.9,"pitUpper":0.93,"empiricalMass":0.03,"logScore":3.506557897319982}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.01,"1":0.065,"2":0.08,"3":0.08,"4":0.09,"5":0.135,"6":0.135,"7":0.065,"8":0.065,"9":0.05,"10":0.05,"11":0.05,"12":0.01,"13":0.035,"14":0.02,"15":0.005,"16":0.015,"17":0.005,"18":0.015,"19":0.005,"24":0.005,"25":0.005,"27":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.085,"1":0.12,"2":0.26,"3":0.165,"4":0.15,"5":0.135,"6":0.02,"7":0.035,"8":0.02,"9":0.01},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.015,"1":0.035,"2":0.06,"3":0.11,"4":0.1,"5":0.12,"6":0.1,"7":0.08,"8":0.085,"9":0.07,"10":0.03,"11":0.06,"12":0.04,"13":0.015,"14":0.02,"15":0.01,"16":0.015,"17":0.005,"18":0.01,"19":0.01,"21":0.005,"24":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"1":0.01,"2":0.025,"3":0.08,"4":0.12,"5":0.17,"6":0.195,"7":0.13,"8":0.13,"9":0.045,"10":0.055,"11":0.025,"12":0.005,"13":0.005,"14":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.015,"1":0.065,"2":0.15,"3":0.18,"4":0.185,"5":0.175,"6":0.095,"7":0.075,"8":0.025,"9":0.03,"11":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.03,"1":0.08,"2":0.14,"3":0.105,"4":0.14,"5":0.18,"6":0.135,"7":0.09,"8":0.03,"9":0.01,"10":0.035,"11":0.005,"12":0.01,"13":0.005,"15":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1683676800000,"validUntil":1686268800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5307,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2023","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.279325,"mean":0.755,"median":0,"bias":0.755,"maeMean":0.755,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.51,"empiricalMass":0.51,"logScore":0.6733445532637656},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.09125000000000003,"mean":0.34,"median":0,"bias":0.34,"maeMean":0.34,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.7,"empiricalMass":0.7,"logScore":0.35667494393873245},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.330975,"mean":0.915,"median":1,"bias":0.915,"maeMean":0.915,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.495,"empiricalMass":0.495,"logScore":0.7031975164134467},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.36269999999999997,"mean":0.82,"median":1,"bias":0.82,"maeMean":0.82,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.435,"empiricalMass":0.435,"logScore":0.8324092478934529},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.24607499999999993,"mean":0.695,"median":0,"bias":0.695,"maeMean":0.695,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.535,"empiricalMass":0.535,"logScore":0.6254885320861304},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.31875000000000003,"mean":0.79,"median":1,"bias":0.79,"maeMean":0.79,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.475,"empiricalMass":0.475,"logScore":0.7444404749474959}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.51,"1":0.305,"2":0.115,"3":0.06,"4":0.01},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.7,"1":0.265,"2":0.03,"3":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.495,"1":0.255,"2":0.14,"3":0.075,"4":0.025,"5":0.005,"6":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.435,"1":0.36,"2":0.17,"3":0.02,"4":0.015},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.535,"1":0.3,"2":0.115,"3":0.04,"4":0.005,"5":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.475,"1":0.325,"2":0.145,"3":0.045,"4":0.01}}},{"issuedAt":1686268800000,"validUntil":1686355200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":2,"actual":1,"trainingCount":5340,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2023","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.34785,"mean":1.75,"median":1,"bias":0.75,"maeMean":0.75,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.315,"pitUpper":0.6,"empiricalMass":0.285,"logScore":1.2552660987134867},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.25207499999999994,"mean":1.045,"median":1,"bias":0.04499999999999993,"maeMean":0.04499999999999993,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.395,"pitUpper":0.705,"empiricalMass":0.31,"logScore":1.171182981502945},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.353375,"mean":1.745,"median":1,"bias":0.7450000000000001,"maeMean":0.7450000000000001,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":6,"coverage":true,"width":6,"pitLower":0.31,"pitUpper":0.59,"empiricalMass":0.28,"logScore":1.2729656758128873},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.268475,"mean":1.435,"median":1,"bias":0.43500000000000005,"maeMean":0.43500000000000005,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.23,"pitUpper":0.565,"empiricalMass":0.335,"logScore":1.0936247471570706},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.19265000000000004,"mean":0.94,"median":1,"bias":-0.06000000000000005,"maeMean":0.06000000000000005,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.37,"pitUpper":0.775,"empiricalMass":0.405,"logScore":0.9038682118755978},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.25627500000000003,"mean":0.915,"median":1,"bias":-0.08499999999999996,"maeMean":0.08499999999999996,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.445,"pitUpper":0.785,"empiricalMass":0.34,"logScore":1.0788096613719298}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.315,"1":0.285,"2":0.165,"3":0.08,"4":0.08,"5":0.03,"6":0.015,"7":0.02,"11":0.005,"28":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.395,"1":0.31,"2":0.205,"3":0.07,"5":0.01,"6":0.005,"7":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.31,"1":0.28,"2":0.17,"3":0.115,"4":0.025,"5":0.04,"6":0.025,"7":0.015,"8":0.005,"10":0.005,"12":0.005,"15":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.23,"1":0.335,"2":0.285,"3":0.09,"4":0.045,"5":0.01,"6":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.37,"1":0.405,"2":0.155,"3":0.055,"4":0.015},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.445,"1":0.34,"2":0.11,"3":0.075,"4":0.02,"5":0.01}}},{"issuedAt":1686268800000,"validUntil":1686355200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":3,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5340,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2023","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.02057500000000001,"mean":0.185,"median":0,"bias":0.185,"maeMean":0.185,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.86,"empiricalMass":0.86,"logScore":0.15082288973458366},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.018875000000000003,"mean":0.165,"median":0,"bias":0.165,"maeMean":0.165,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.865,"empiricalMass":0.865,"logScore":0.14502577205025774},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.016924999999999996,"mean":0.175,"median":0,"bias":0.175,"maeMean":0.175,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.88,"empiricalMass":0.88,"logScore":0.12783337150988489},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.04039999999999999,"mean":0.22,"median":0,"bias":0.22,"maeMean":0.22,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.8,"empiricalMass":0.8,"logScore":0.2231435513142097},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.018125000000000002,"mean":0.165,"median":0,"bias":0.165,"maeMean":0.165,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.87,"empiricalMass":0.87,"logScore":0.13926206733350766},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.021675,"mean":0.175,"median":0,"bias":0.175,"maeMean":0.175,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.855,"empiricalMass":0.855,"logScore":0.15665381004537685}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.86,"1":0.11,"2":0.025,"5":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.865,"1":0.11,"2":0.02,"3":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.88,"1":0.07,"2":0.045,"3":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.8,"1":0.18,"2":0.02},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.87,"1":0.095,"2":0.035},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.855,"1":0.12,"2":0.02,"3":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1686268800000,"validUntil":1686355200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5340,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2023","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.0006499999999999978,"mean":0.03,"median":0,"bias":0.03,"maeMean":0.03,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.975,"empiricalMass":0.975,"logScore":0.025317807984289897},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.0006250000000000006,"mean":0.025,"median":0,"bias":0.025,"maeMean":0.025,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.975,"empiricalMass":0.975,"logScore":0.025317807984289897},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.00042500000000000177,"mean":0.025,"median":0,"bias":0.025,"maeMean":0.025,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.98,"empiricalMass":0.98,"logScore":0.020202707317519466},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.000899999999999998,"mean":0.03,"median":0,"bias":0.03,"maeMean":0.03,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.97,"empiricalMass":0.97,"logScore":0.030459207484708574},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.00040000000000000105,"mean":0.02,"median":0,"bias":0.02,"maeMean":0.02,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.98,"empiricalMass":0.98,"logScore":0.020202707317519466},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.000899999999999998,"mean":0.03,"median":0,"bias":0.03,"maeMean":0.03,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.97,"empiricalMass":0.97,"logScore":0.030459207484708574}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.975,"1":0.02,"2":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.975,"1":0.025},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.98,"1":0.015,"2":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.97,"1":0.03},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.98,"1":0.02},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.97,"1":0.03}}},{"issuedAt":1686268800000,"validUntil":1686873600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":2,"actual":7,"trainingCount":5340,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2023","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":2.5641499999999997,"mean":12.94,"median":11,"bias":5.9399999999999995,"maeMean":5.9399999999999995,"maeMedian":4,"low":2,"high":32,"coverage":true,"width":30,"pitLower":0.215,"pitUpper":0.295,"empiricalMass":0.08,"logScore":2.5257286443082556},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.8621500000000002,"mean":6.47,"median":6,"bias":-0.5300000000000002,"maeMean":0.5300000000000002,"maeMedian":1,"low":2,"high":13,"coverage":true,"width":11,"pitLower":0.555,"pitUpper":0.66,"empiricalMass":0.105,"logScore":2.2537949288246137},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":2.4417,"mean":12.55,"median":11,"bias":5.550000000000001,"maeMean":5.550000000000001,"maeMedian":4,"low":3,"high":28,"coverage":true,"width":25,"pitLower":0.21,"pitUpper":0.28,"empiricalMass":0.07,"logScore":2.659260036932778},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":2.2298750000000003,"mean":10.625,"median":11,"bias":3.625,"maeMean":3.625,"maeMedian":4,"low":5,"high":16,"coverage":true,"width":11,"pitLower":0.1,"pitUpper":0.15,"empiricalMass":0.05,"logScore":2.995732273553991},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.6108499999999999,"mean":6.64,"median":7,"bias":-0.3600000000000003,"maeMean":0.3600000000000003,"maeMedian":0,"low":3,"high":11,"coverage":true,"width":8,"pitLower":0.49,"pitUpper":0.63,"empiricalMass":0.14,"logScore":1.9661128563728327},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.9252499999999999,"mean":6.25,"median":6,"bias":-0.75,"maeMean":0.75,"maeMedian":1,"low":2,"high":12,"coverage":true,"width":10,"pitLower":0.58,"pitUpper":0.675,"empiricalMass":0.095,"logScore":2.353878387381596}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.005,"1":0.015,"2":0.035,"3":0.02,"4":0.04,"5":0.035,"6":0.065,"7":0.08,"8":0.075,"9":0.055,"10":0.06,"11":0.06,"12":0.07,"13":0.04,"14":0.035,"15":0.04,"16":0.02,"17":0.025,"18":0.02,"19":0.015,"20":0.02,"21":0.03,"22":0.005,"24":0.015,"25":0.01,"26":0.025,"27":0.01,"28":0.005,"29":0.005,"30":0.005,"31":0.005,"32":0.005,"33":0.01,"35":0.005,"36":0.01,"37":0.005,"38":0.005,"40":0.005,"42":0.005,"49":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.01,"1":0.01,"2":0.065,"3":0.11,"4":0.11,"5":0.13,"6":0.12,"7":0.105,"8":0.105,"9":0.07,"10":0.045,"11":0.025,"12":0.035,"13":0.035,"14":0.01,"15":0.005,"17":0.01},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"1":0.005,"2":0.015,"3":0.04,"4":0.06,"5":0.035,"6":0.055,"7":0.07,"8":0.07,"9":0.075,"10":0.07,"11":0.055,"12":0.03,"13":0.08,"14":0.055,"15":0.05,"16":0.025,"17":0.03,"18":0.03,"19":0.02,"21":0.015,"22":0.01,"23":0.015,"24":0.01,"25":0.015,"26":0.01,"28":0.015,"31":0.005,"34":0.005,"38":0.005,"41":0.005,"43":0.005,"44":0.005,"51":0.005,"57":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"1":0.005,"2":0.005,"3":0.005,"4":0.005,"5":0.03,"6":0.05,"7":0.05,"8":0.1,"9":0.105,"10":0.115,"11":0.17,"12":0.12,"13":0.075,"14":0.05,"15":0.055,"16":0.015,"17":0.015,"18":0.01,"19":0.01,"20":0.005,"21":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.005,"1":0.005,"2":0.015,"3":0.065,"4":0.125,"5":0.12,"6":0.155,"7":0.14,"8":0.145,"9":0.125,"10":0.03,"11":0.04,"12":0.02,"13":0.005,"14":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.005,"1":0.02,"2":0.06,"3":0.13,"4":0.125,"5":0.12,"6":0.12,"7":0.095,"8":0.085,"9":0.07,"10":0.07,"11":0.035,"12":0.035,"13":0.015,"14":0.01,"17":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1686268800000,"validUntil":1686873600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":3,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5340,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2023","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.7412,"mean":1.69,"median":1,"bias":1.69,"maeMean":1.69,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.305,"empiricalMass":0.305,"logScore":1.1874435023747254},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.287825,"mean":0.735,"median":1,"bias":0.735,"maeMean":0.735,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.49,"empiricalMass":0.49,"logScore":0.7133498878774648},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.7006749999999999,"mean":1.535,"median":1,"bias":1.535,"maeMean":1.535,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.3,"empiricalMass":0.3,"logScore":1.2039728043259361},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.7971750000000001,"mean":1.445,"median":1,"bias":1.445,"maeMean":1.445,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.245,"empiricalMass":0.245,"logScore":1.40649706843741},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.5780500000000001,"mean":1.09,"median":1,"bias":1.09,"maeMean":1.09,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.315,"empiricalMass":0.315,"logScore":1.155182640156504},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.339325,"mean":0.865,"median":1,"bias":0.865,"maeMean":0.865,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.465,"empiricalMass":0.465,"logScore":0.7657178733947807}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.305,"1":0.275,"2":0.195,"3":0.08,"4":0.065,"5":0.04,"6":0.005,"7":0.01,"8":0.01,"9":0.01,"11":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.49,"1":0.355,"2":0.095,"3":0.05,"4":0.01},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.3,"1":0.305,"2":0.2,"3":0.085,"4":0.055,"5":0.03,"7":0.015,"9":0.005,"11":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.245,"1":0.32,"2":0.25,"3":0.125,"4":0.05,"5":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.315,"1":0.365,"2":0.24,"3":0.075,"4":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.465,"1":0.32,"2":0.14,"3":0.04,"4":0.03,"5":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1686268800000,"validUntil":1686873600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5340,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2023","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.03267500000000001,"mean":0.225,"median":0,"bias":0.225,"maeMean":0.225,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.825,"empiricalMass":0.825,"logScore":0.19237189264745613},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.006449999999999997,"mean":0.09,"median":0,"bias":0.09,"maeMean":0.09,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.92,"empiricalMass":0.92,"logScore":0.08338160893905101},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.009150000000000005,"mean":0.11,"median":0,"bias":0.11,"maeMean":0.11,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.905,"empiricalMass":0.905,"logScore":0.0998203352822109},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.026524999999999993,"mean":0.195,"median":0,"bias":0.195,"maeMean":0.195,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.84,"empiricalMass":0.84,"logScore":0.1743533871447778},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.018250000000000016,"mean":0.14,"median":0,"bias":0.14,"maeMean":0.14,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.865,"empiricalMass":0.865,"logScore":0.14502577205025774},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.012325000000000003,"mean":0.125,"median":0,"bias":0.125,"maeMean":0.125,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.89,"empiricalMass":0.89,"logScore":0.11653381625595151}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.825,"1":0.13,"2":0.04,"3":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.92,"1":0.075,"3":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.905,"1":0.085,"2":0.005,"3":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.84,"1":0.13,"2":0.025,"3":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.865,"1":0.13,"2":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.89,"1":0.095,"2":0.015}}},{"issuedAt":1686268800000,"validUntil":1688860800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":2,"actual":26,"trainingCount":5340,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2023","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":15.0618,"mean":54.38,"median":46,"bias":28.380000000000003,"maeMean":28.380000000000003,"maeMedian":20,"low":26,"high":111,"coverage":true,"width":85,"pitLower":0.045,"pitUpper":0.05,"empiricalMass":0.005,"logScore":5.298317366548036},"rollingETAS":{"crps":1.576,"mean":26.06,"median":26,"bias":0.05999999999999872,"maeMean":0.05999999999999872,"maeMedian":0,"low":17,"high":38,"coverage":true,"width":21,"pitLower":0.495,"pitUpper":0.55,"empiricalMass":0.055,"logScore":2.900422093749666},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":19.123799999999996,"mean":59.71,"median":56,"bias":33.71,"maeMean":33.71,"maeMedian":30,"low":26,"high":110,"coverage":true,"width":84,"pitLower":0.045,"pitUpper":0.05,"empiricalMass":0.005,"logScore":5.298317366548036},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":15.723575,"mean":45.965,"median":46,"bias":19.965000000000003,"maeMean":19.965000000000003,"maeMedian":20,"low":34,"high":59,"coverage":false,"width":25,"pitLower":0.005,"pitUpper":0.005,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentPoisson":{"crps":1.3463250000000002,"mean":27.625,"median":27,"bias":1.625,"maeMean":1.625,"maeMedian":1,"low":19,"high":38,"coverage":true,"width":19,"pitLower":0.365,"pitUpper":0.45,"empiricalMass":0.085,"logScore":2.4651040224918206},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":2.484675,"mean":29.155,"median":28,"bias":3.155000000000001,"maeMean":3.155000000000001,"maeMedian":2,"low":14,"high":43,"coverage":true,"width":29,"pitLower":0.4,"pitUpper":0.44,"empiricalMass":0.04,"logScore":3.2188758248682006}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"17":0.005,"20":0.01,"22":0.015,"24":0.005,"25":0.01,"26":0.005,"27":0.01,"28":0.01,"29":0.02,"30":0.015,"31":0.015,"32":0.01,"33":0.02,"34":0.02,"35":0.03,"36":0.015,"37":0.04,"38":0.045,"39":0.02,"40":0.04,"41":0.045,"42":0.02,"43":0.01,"44":0.04,"45":0.02,"46":0.03,"47":0.025,"48":0.02,"49":0.02,"50":0.005,"51":0.015,"52":0.01,"53":0.015,"54":0.01,"55":0.005,"56":0.015,"57":0.005,"58":0.015,"59":0.01,"60":0.015,"61":0.015,"62":0.01,"65":0.03,"66":0.015,"67":0.01,"68":0.015,"69":0.005,"70":0.015,"71":0.01,"72":0.005,"73":0.015,"75":0.005,"76":0.01,"79":0.005,"80":0.005,"82":0.005,"86":0.01,"88":0.005,"90":0.005,"91":0.005,"94":0.005,"97":0.005,"104":0.01,"105":0.005,"107":0.005,"108":0.005,"111":0.005,"112":0.005,"114":0.005,"121":0.005,"123":0.005,"129":0.005,"130":0.005,"133":0.005,"144":0.005,"197":0.005,"213":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"11":0.01,"12":0.01,"14":0.005,"15":0.015,"16":0.005,"17":0.025,"18":0.045,"19":0.04,"20":0.045,"21":0.06,"22":0.05,"23":0.08,"24":0.065,"25":0.04,"26":0.055,"27":0.045,"28":0.07,"29":0.06,"30":0.06,"31":0.015,"32":0.04,"33":0.025,"34":0.01,"35":0.035,"36":0.01,"37":0.02,"38":0.02,"39":0.02,"40":0.005,"42":0.01,"52":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"18":0.01,"20":0.005,"22":0.005,"23":0.01,"24":0.01,"25":0.005,"26":0.005,"27":0.005,"28":0.025,"29":0.015,"30":0.01,"31":0.025,"32":0.01,"33":0.02,"34":0.015,"35":0.025,"36":0.015,"37":0.01,"38":0.01,"39":0.01,"40":0.02,"41":0.02,"42":0.02,"43":0.035,"44":0.005,"45":0.005,"46":0.03,"47":0.025,"48":0.015,"49":0.01,"50":0.005,"51":0.015,"52":0.015,"54":0.025,"55":0.005,"56":0.02,"57":0.015,"58":0.035,"59":0.015,"60":0.015,"61":0.025,"62":0.02,"64":0.01,"65":0.02,"66":0.005,"67":0.015,"68":0.005,"69":0.005,"70":0.005,"71":0.01,"72":0.015,"73":0.015,"74":0.015,"76":0.005,"77":0.005,"78":0.015,"79":0.015,"80":0.005,"81":0.01,"82":0.005,"83":0.01,"84":0.01,"85":0.025,"86":0.005,"87":0.005,"88":0.01,"89":0.005,"91":0.01,"95":0.005,"98":0.005,"99":0.005,"100":0.01,"102":0.005,"103":0.005,"104":0.005,"109":0.005,"110":0.005,"111":0.005,"113":0.005,"116":0.005,"119":0.005,"131":0.005,"138":0.005,"152":0.005,"154":0.005,"167":0.005,"202":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"24":0.005,"27":0.01,"29":0.005,"31":0.005,"33":0.015,"34":0.02,"35":0.015,"36":0.015,"37":0.02,"38":0.04,"39":0.05,"40":0.045,"41":0.055,"42":0.045,"43":0.05,"44":0.03,"45":0.065,"46":0.045,"47":0.065,"48":0.035,"49":0.035,"50":0.04,"51":0.02,"52":0.075,"53":0.04,"54":0.03,"55":0.03,"56":0.01,"57":0.01,"58":0.015,"59":0.02,"60":0.01,"61":0.01,"62":0.005,"63":0.01,"65":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"17":0.025,"18":0.01,"19":0.015,"20":0.045,"21":0.03,"22":0.025,"23":0.075,"24":0.075,"25":0.065,"26":0.085,"27":0.055,"28":0.095,"29":0.065,"30":0.055,"31":0.055,"32":0.055,"33":0.045,"34":0.015,"35":0.035,"36":0.005,"37":0.015,"38":0.02,"39":0.015,"40":0.005,"41":0.01,"48":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"8":0.005,"11":0.01,"12":0.01,"13":0.015,"14":0.02,"15":0.02,"16":0.015,"17":0.015,"18":0.025,"19":0.01,"20":0.055,"21":0.035,"22":0.045,"23":0.015,"24":0.05,"25":0.055,"26":0.04,"27":0.03,"28":0.035,"29":0.04,"30":0.05,"31":0.03,"32":0.03,"33":0.035,"34":0.025,"35":0.045,"36":0.025,"37":0.03,"38":0.035,"39":0.025,"40":0.01,"41":0.02,"42":0.015,"43":0.03,"46":0.005,"47":0.005,"50":0.005,"52":0.01,"53":0.01,"55":0.005,"70":0.005,"85":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1686268800000,"validUntil":1688860800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":3,"actual":2,"trainingCount":5340,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2023","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":2.3339999999999996,"mean":6.63,"median":5,"bias":4.63,"maeMean":4.63,"maeMedian":3,"low":1,"high":18,"coverage":true,"width":17,"pitLower":0.07,"pitUpper":0.13,"empiricalMass":0.06,"logScore":2.8134107167600364},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.4939499999999999,"mean":2.87,"median":3,"bias":0.8700000000000001,"maeMean":0.8700000000000001,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":6,"coverage":true,"width":6,"pitLower":0.24,"pitUpper":0.465,"empiricalMass":0.225,"logScore":1.491654876777717},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":2.6972749999999994,"mean":7.325,"median":6,"bias":5.325,"maeMean":5.325,"maeMedian":4,"low":2,"high":17,"coverage":true,"width":15,"pitLower":0.045,"pitUpper":0.15,"empiricalMass":0.105,"logScore":2.2537949288246137},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":3.03055,"mean":6.48,"median":6,"bias":4.48,"maeMean":4.48,"maeMedian":4,"low":3,"high":12,"coverage":false,"width":9,"pitLower":0.015,"pitUpper":0.03,"empiricalMass":0.015,"logScore":4.199705077879927},"recentPoisson":{"crps":1.302175,"mean":4.405,"median":4,"bias":2.4050000000000002,"maeMean":2.4050000000000002,"maeMedian":2,"low":1,"high":8,"coverage":true,"width":7,"pitLower":0.055,"pitUpper":0.215,"empiricalMass":0.16,"logScore":1.8325814637483102},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":1.299875,"mean":4.535,"median":4,"bias":2.535,"maeMean":2.535,"maeMedian":2,"low":1,"high":10,"coverage":true,"width":9,"pitLower":0.1,"pitUpper":0.21,"empiricalMass":0.11,"logScore":2.2072749131897207}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.02,"1":0.05,"2":0.06,"3":0.13,"4":0.11,"5":0.15,"6":0.115,"7":0.08,"8":0.045,"9":0.04,"10":0.04,"11":0.025,"12":0.025,"13":0.02,"14":0.015,"15":0.01,"16":0.005,"17":0.005,"18":0.015,"20":0.02,"22":0.01,"25":0.005,"27":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.075,"1":0.165,"2":0.225,"3":0.22,"4":0.12,"5":0.125,"6":0.025,"7":0.03,"8":0.005,"9":0.01},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.01,"1":0.035,"2":0.105,"3":0.145,"4":0.075,"5":0.05,"6":0.1,"7":0.07,"8":0.055,"9":0.07,"10":0.055,"11":0.065,"12":0.03,"13":0.02,"14":0.025,"15":0.02,"16":0.01,"17":0.01,"18":0.005,"20":0.01,"21":0.015,"22":0.01,"24":0.005,"25":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"1":0.015,"2":0.015,"3":0.08,"4":0.125,"5":0.165,"6":0.17,"7":0.125,"8":0.095,"9":0.08,"10":0.035,"11":0.035,"12":0.04,"13":0.01,"14":0.005,"16":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"1":0.055,"2":0.16,"3":0.175,"4":0.175,"5":0.145,"6":0.125,"7":0.075,"8":0.055,"9":0.01,"10":0.01,"11":0.005,"12":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.04,"1":0.06,"2":0.11,"3":0.215,"4":0.16,"5":0.125,"6":0.09,"7":0.06,"8":0.035,"9":0.04,"10":0.03,"11":0.01,"12":0.005,"13":0.01,"14":0.005,"15":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1686268800000,"validUntil":1688860800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5340,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2023","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.2593,"mean":0.78,"median":0,"bias":0.78,"maeMean":0.78,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.535,"empiricalMass":0.535,"logScore":0.6254885320861304},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.07237500000000002,"mean":0.325,"median":0,"bias":0.325,"maeMean":0.325,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.735,"empiricalMass":0.735,"logScore":0.3078847797693004},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.28932499999999994,"mean":0.835,"median":0,"bias":0.835,"maeMean":0.835,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.51,"empiricalMass":0.51,"logScore":0.6733445532637656},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.33595,"mean":0.77,"median":1,"bias":0.77,"maeMean":0.77,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.455,"empiricalMass":0.455,"logScore":0.7874578600311866},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.1986,"mean":0.52,"median":0,"bias":0.52,"maeMean":0.52,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.56,"empiricalMass":0.56,"logScore":0.579818495252942},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.27635,"mean":0.63,"median":1,"bias":0.63,"maeMean":0.63,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.485,"empiricalMass":0.485,"logScore":0.7236063880446539}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.535,"1":0.275,"2":0.115,"3":0.04,"4":0.025,"5":0.005,"6":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.735,"1":0.22,"2":0.035,"3":0.005,"4":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.51,"1":0.285,"2":0.125,"3":0.06,"4":0.005,"5":0.005,"6":0.005,"9":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.455,"1":0.35,"2":0.165,"3":0.03},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.56,"1":0.37,"2":0.06,"3":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.485,"1":0.41,"2":0.095,"3":0.01}}},{"issuedAt":1688860800000,"validUntil":1688947200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":2,"actual":1,"trainingCount":5366,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2023","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.2929750000000001,"mean":1.345,"median":1,"bias":0.345,"maeMean":0.345,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.42,"pitUpper":0.725,"empiricalMass":0.305,"logScore":1.1874435023747254},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.25925,"mean":0.86,"median":1,"bias":-0.14,"maeMean":0.14,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.46,"pitUpper":0.8,"empiricalMass":0.34,"logScore":1.0788096613719298},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.32157499999999994,"mean":1.175,"median":1,"bias":0.17500000000000004,"maeMean":0.17500000000000004,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.465,"pitUpper":0.725,"empiricalMass":0.26,"logScore":1.3470736479666092},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.26259999999999994,"mean":1.48,"median":1,"bias":0.48,"maeMean":0.48,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.195,"pitUpper":0.555,"empiricalMass":0.36,"logScore":1.0216512475319814},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.21077499999999993,"mean":0.965,"median":1,"bias":-0.03500000000000003,"maeMean":0.03500000000000003,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.37,"pitUpper":0.735,"empiricalMass":0.365,"logScore":1.0078579253996456},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.24285,"mean":0.93,"median":1,"bias":-0.06999999999999995,"maeMean":0.06999999999999995,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.43,"pitUpper":0.78,"empiricalMass":0.35,"logScore":1.0498221244986778}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.42,"1":0.305,"2":0.12,"3":0.065,"4":0.025,"5":0.02,"6":0.01,"7":0.015,"9":0.005,"10":0.005,"12":0.005,"17":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.46,"1":0.34,"2":0.12,"3":0.045,"4":0.03,"5":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.465,"1":0.26,"2":0.14,"3":0.055,"4":0.025,"5":0.015,"6":0.03,"10":0.005,"13":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.195,"1":0.36,"2":0.29,"3":0.11,"4":0.025,"5":0.01,"6":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.37,"1":0.365,"2":0.205,"3":0.055,"5":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.43,"1":0.35,"2":0.13,"3":0.055,"4":0.02,"5":0.015}}},{"issuedAt":1688860800000,"validUntil":1688947200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":3,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5366,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2023","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.011950000000000016,"mean":0.14,"median":0,"bias":0.14,"maeMean":0.14,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.895,"empiricalMass":0.895,"logScore":0.11093156070728166},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.0121,"mean":0.11,"median":0,"bias":0.11,"maeMean":0.11,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.89,"empiricalMass":0.89,"logScore":0.11653381625595151},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.014575000000000005,"mean":0.165,"median":0,"bias":0.165,"maeMean":0.165,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.885,"empiricalMass":0.885,"logScore":0.12216763397420753},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.046625,"mean":0.235,"median":0,"bias":0.235,"maeMean":0.235,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.785,"empiricalMass":0.785,"logScore":0.24207156119972859},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.02425000000000002,"mean":0.17,"median":0,"bias":0.17,"maeMean":0.17,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.845,"empiricalMass":0.845,"logScore":0.16841865162496325},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.011249999999999996,"mean":0.12,"median":0,"bias":0.12,"maeMean":0.12,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.895,"empiricalMass":0.895,"logScore":0.11093156070728166}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.895,"1":0.075,"2":0.025,"3":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.89,"1":0.11},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.885,"1":0.08,"2":0.025,"3":0.005,"4":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.785,"1":0.195,"2":0.02},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.845,"1":0.14,"2":0.015},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.895,"1":0.09,"2":0.015}}},{"issuedAt":1688860800000,"validUntil":1688947200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5366,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2023","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.000899999999999998,"mean":0.03,"median":0,"bias":0.03,"maeMean":0.03,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.97,"empiricalMass":0.97,"logScore":0.030459207484708574},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.0000999999999999994,"mean":0.01,"median":0,"bias":0.01,"maeMean":0.01,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.99,"empiricalMass":0.99,"logScore":0.01005033585350145},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.00040000000000000105,"mean":0.02,"median":0,"bias":0.02,"maeMean":0.02,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.98,"empiricalMass":0.98,"logScore":0.020202707317519466},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.0016000000000000042,"mean":0.04,"median":0,"bias":0.04,"maeMean":0.04,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.96,"empiricalMass":0.96,"logScore":0.040821994520255166},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.0006499999999999978,"mean":0.03,"median":0,"bias":0.03,"maeMean":0.03,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.975,"empiricalMass":0.975,"logScore":0.025317807984289897},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.0000999999999999994,"mean":0.01,"median":0,"bias":0.01,"maeMean":0.01,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.99,"empiricalMass":0.99,"logScore":0.01005033585350145}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.97,"1":0.03},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.99,"1":0.01},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.98,"1":0.02},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.96,"1":0.04},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.975,"1":0.02,"2":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.99,"1":0.01}}},{"issuedAt":1688860800000,"validUntil":1689465600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":2,"actual":5,"trainingCount":5366,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2023","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":2.8709499999999997,"mean":11.76,"median":9,"bias":6.76,"maeMean":6.76,"maeMedian":4,"low":2,"high":29,"coverage":true,"width":27,"pitLower":0.17,"pitUpper":0.23,"empiricalMass":0.06,"logScore":2.8134107167600364},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.7296500000000001,"mean":5.79,"median":5,"bias":0.79,"maeMean":0.79,"maeMedian":0,"low":2,"high":11,"coverage":true,"width":9,"pitLower":0.375,"pitUpper":0.51,"empiricalMass":0.135,"logScore":2.0024805005437076},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":2.1267250000000004,"mean":10.685,"median":8,"bias":5.6850000000000005,"maeMean":5.6850000000000005,"maeMedian":3,"low":2,"high":30,"coverage":true,"width":28,"pitLower":0.21,"pitUpper":0.28,"empiricalMass":0.07,"logScore":2.659260036932778},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":4.246975,"mean":10.995,"median":11,"bias":5.994999999999999,"maeMean":5.994999999999999,"maeMedian":6,"low":6,"high":17,"coverage":false,"width":11,"pitLower":0.005,"pitUpper":0.03,"empiricalMass":0.025,"logScore":3.6888794541139363},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.9187749999999999,"mean":6.585,"median":6,"bias":1.585,"maeMean":1.585,"maeMedian":1,"low":3,"high":11,"coverage":true,"width":8,"pitLower":0.225,"pitUpper":0.33,"empiricalMass":0.105,"logScore":2.2537949288246137},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":1.23705,"mean":7.33,"median":7,"bias":2.33,"maeMean":2.33,"maeMedian":2,"low":1,"high":16,"coverage":true,"width":15,"pitLower":0.31,"pitUpper":0.39,"empiricalMass":0.08,"logScore":2.5257286443082556}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"1":0.005,"2":0.045,"3":0.06,"4":0.06,"5":0.06,"6":0.065,"7":0.07,"8":0.075,"9":0.075,"10":0.045,"11":0.05,"12":0.05,"13":0.045,"14":0.04,"15":0.06,"16":0.04,"17":0.025,"18":0.005,"19":0.015,"21":0.005,"22":0.02,"23":0.015,"24":0.005,"25":0.005,"28":0.005,"29":0.005,"30":0.015,"31":0.005,"33":0.005,"35":0.005,"40":0.005,"43":0.005,"47":0.005,"138":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.005,"1":0.035,"2":0.08,"3":0.14,"4":0.115,"5":0.135,"6":0.125,"7":0.075,"8":0.13,"9":0.045,"10":0.04,"11":0.025,"12":0.02,"13":0.02,"14":0.005,"15":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.005,"1":0.02,"2":0.04,"3":0.055,"4":0.09,"5":0.07,"6":0.075,"7":0.08,"8":0.08,"9":0.09,"10":0.06,"11":0.065,"12":0.025,"13":0.075,"14":0.03,"15":0.015,"16":0.01,"17":0.02,"18":0.005,"19":0.005,"22":0.005,"23":0.005,"26":0.005,"27":0.005,"28":0.005,"30":0.01,"32":0.005,"33":0.01,"34":0.005,"35":0.005,"36":0.01,"55":0.005,"87":0.005,"99":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"4":0.005,"5":0.025,"6":0.04,"7":0.05,"8":0.105,"9":0.09,"10":0.15,"11":0.125,"12":0.125,"13":0.115,"14":0.05,"15":0.015,"16":0.03,"17":0.045,"18":0.01,"19":0.01,"20":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"2":0.035,"3":0.09,"4":0.1,"5":0.105,"6":0.19,"7":0.17,"8":0.09,"9":0.085,"10":0.05,"11":0.045,"12":0.02,"13":0.015,"15":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.005,"1":0.045,"2":0.075,"3":0.07,"4":0.115,"5":0.08,"6":0.095,"7":0.115,"8":0.07,"9":0.07,"10":0.045,"11":0.05,"12":0.05,"13":0.02,"14":0.01,"15":0.02,"16":0.02,"17":0.02,"18":0.005,"20":0.01,"22":0.005,"28":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1688860800000,"validUntil":1689465600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":3,"actual":1,"trainingCount":5366,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2023","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.32352499999999995,"mean":1.505,"median":1,"bias":0.5049999999999999,"maeMean":0.5049999999999999,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":6,"coverage":true,"width":6,"pitLower":0.38,"pitUpper":0.65,"empiricalMass":0.27,"logScore":1.3093333199837622},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.25225000000000003,"mean":0.73,"median":1,"bias":-0.27,"maeMean":0.27,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.475,"pitUpper":0.84,"empiricalMass":0.365,"logScore":1.0078579253996456},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.2980499999999999,"mean":1.31,"median":1,"bias":0.31000000000000005,"maeMean":0.31000000000000005,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.445,"pitUpper":0.76,"empiricalMass":0.315,"logScore":1.155182640156504},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.27232500000000004,"mean":1.415,"median":1,"bias":0.41500000000000004,"maeMean":0.41500000000000004,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.255,"pitUpper":0.585,"empiricalMass":0.33,"logScore":1.1086626245216111},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.194975,"mean":1.135,"median":1,"bias":0.135,"maeMean":0.135,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.305,"pitUpper":0.7,"empiricalMass":0.395,"logScore":0.9288695140810151},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.262425,"mean":1.045,"median":1,"bias":0.04499999999999993,"maeMean":0.04499999999999993,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.415,"pitUpper":0.73,"empiricalMass":0.315,"logScore":1.155182640156504}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.38,"1":0.27,"2":0.17,"3":0.065,"4":0.035,"5":0.02,"6":0.035,"7":0.02,"22":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.475,"1":0.365,"2":0.13,"3":0.02,"4":0.005,"5":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.445,"1":0.315,"2":0.085,"3":0.05,"4":0.055,"5":0.01,"6":0.005,"7":0.005,"8":0.005,"9":0.015,"12":0.005,"21":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.255,"1":0.33,"2":0.235,"3":0.135,"4":0.02,"5":0.02,"6":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.305,"1":0.395,"2":0.195,"3":0.075,"4":0.025,"5":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.415,"1":0.315,"2":0.15,"3":0.07,"4":0.03,"5":0.02}}},{"issuedAt":1688860800000,"validUntil":1689465600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":4,"actual":1,"trainingCount":5366,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2023","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.68235,"mean":0.23,"median":0,"bias":-0.77,"maeMean":0.77,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0.825,"pitUpper":0.96,"empiricalMass":0.135,"logScore":2.0024805005437076},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.837225,"mean":0.085,"median":0,"bias":-0.915,"maeMean":0.915,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0.915,"pitUpper":1,"empiricalMass":0.085,"logScore":2.4651040224918206},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.792775,"mean":0.145,"median":0,"bias":-0.855,"maeMean":0.855,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0.89,"pitUpper":0.975,"empiricalMass":0.085,"logScore":2.4651040224918206},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.731275,"mean":0.165,"median":0,"bias":-0.835,"maeMean":0.835,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0.855,"pitUpper":0.985,"empiricalMass":0.13,"logScore":2.0402208285265546},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.8101,"mean":0.11,"median":0,"bias":-0.89,"maeMean":0.89,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0.9,"pitUpper":0.99,"empiricalMass":0.09,"logScore":2.4079456086518722},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.74825,"mean":0.14,"median":0,"bias":-0.86,"maeMean":0.86,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0.865,"pitUpper":0.995,"empiricalMass":0.13,"logScore":2.0402208285265546}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.825,"1":0.135,"2":0.03,"3":0.005,"4":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.915,"1":0.085},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.89,"1":0.085,"2":0.02,"4":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.855,"1":0.13,"2":0.01,"3":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.9,"1":0.09,"2":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.865,"1":0.13,"2":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1688860800000,"validUntil":1691452800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":2,"actual":14,"trainingCount":5366,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2023","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":26.264274999999998,"mean":54.625,"median":47,"bias":40.625,"maeMean":40.625,"maeMedian":33,"low":22,"high":105,"coverage":false,"width":83,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"rollingETAS":{"crps":8.44655,"mean":26.34,"median":25,"bias":12.34,"maeMean":12.34,"maeMedian":11,"low":17,"high":41,"coverage":false,"width":24,"pitLower":0.01,"pitUpper":0.025,"empiricalMass":0.015,"logScore":4.199705077879927},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":26.619025,"mean":54.585,"median":49,"bias":40.585,"maeMean":40.585,"maeMedian":35,"low":25,"high":104,"coverage":false,"width":79,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":28.33435,"mean":46.71,"median":46,"bias":32.71,"maeMean":32.71,"maeMedian":32,"low":33,"high":60,"coverage":false,"width":27,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentPoisson":{"crps":12.375825,"mean":29.035,"median":29,"bias":15.035,"maeMean":15.035,"maeMedian":15,"low":21,"high":36,"coverage":false,"width":15,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":10.621125,"mean":29.165,"median":29,"bias":15.165,"maeMean":15.165,"maeMedian":15,"low":16,"high":43,"coverage":false,"width":27,"pitLower":0.01,"pitUpper":0.015,"empiricalMass":0.005,"logScore":5.298317366548036}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"15":0.005,"17":0.01,"18":0.005,"19":0.005,"20":0.015,"21":0.005,"22":0.005,"23":0.01,"24":0.005,"25":0.005,"26":0.005,"27":0.005,"28":0.01,"29":0.015,"30":0.035,"31":0.005,"32":0.02,"33":0.005,"34":0.05,"35":0.01,"36":0.015,"37":0.035,"38":0.01,"39":0.025,"40":0.02,"41":0.025,"42":0.02,"43":0.035,"44":0.02,"45":0.03,"46":0.03,"47":0.025,"48":0.02,"49":0.015,"50":0.005,"51":0.025,"52":0.02,"53":0.005,"54":0.015,"55":0.02,"56":0.02,"57":0.01,"58":0.015,"59":0.015,"60":0.005,"61":0.01,"62":0.005,"63":0.015,"64":0.02,"66":0.015,"67":0.005,"68":0.01,"69":0.015,"70":0.005,"73":0.01,"74":0.01,"76":0.01,"78":0.015,"79":0.01,"81":0.005,"82":0.005,"85":0.005,"86":0.015,"87":0.005,"88":0.005,"90":0.005,"92":0.005,"95":0.01,"99":0.005,"100":0.01,"103":0.005,"105":0.005,"107":0.005,"109":0.005,"129":0.005,"133":0.005,"138":0.005,"144":0.005,"154":0.005,"176":0.005,"183":0.005,"190":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"12":0.01,"14":0.015,"16":0.02,"17":0.01,"18":0.03,"19":0.05,"20":0.055,"21":0.08,"22":0.045,"23":0.05,"24":0.115,"25":0.055,"26":0.085,"27":0.045,"28":0.03,"29":0.04,"30":0.03,"31":0.045,"32":0.035,"33":0.02,"34":0.03,"35":0.02,"36":0.005,"37":0.015,"41":0.015,"42":0.005,"43":0.01,"47":0.005,"48":0.01,"49":0.005,"52":0.01,"57":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"16":0.005,"18":0.005,"19":0.01,"20":0.005,"22":0.01,"23":0.005,"25":0.02,"26":0.03,"27":0.005,"28":0.015,"29":0.02,"30":0.01,"31":0.025,"32":0.01,"33":0.025,"34":0.03,"35":0.025,"36":0.015,"37":0.025,"38":0.005,"39":0.02,"40":0.015,"41":0.005,"42":0.025,"43":0.045,"44":0.015,"45":0.01,"46":0.01,"47":0.01,"48":0.03,"49":0.03,"50":0.02,"51":0.025,"52":0.005,"53":0.02,"54":0.02,"55":0.01,"56":0.02,"57":0.01,"58":0.005,"59":0.01,"60":0.015,"61":0.02,"62":0.03,"63":0.005,"64":0.015,"65":0.01,"66":0.015,"67":0.01,"69":0.01,"70":0.03,"72":0.015,"73":0.005,"75":0.005,"76":0.02,"78":0.01,"79":0.015,"80":0.005,"81":0.005,"82":0.005,"85":0.005,"88":0.005,"90":0.005,"91":0.005,"94":0.01,"99":0.005,"100":0.005,"104":0.005,"108":0.005,"112":0.005,"118":0.005,"122":0.005,"125":0.005,"129":0.005,"143":0.005,"179":0.005,"199":0.005,"203":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"29":0.015,"30":0.01,"32":0.005,"33":0.02,"35":0.02,"36":0.01,"37":0.02,"38":0.04,"39":0.035,"40":0.035,"41":0.04,"42":0.045,"43":0.06,"44":0.055,"45":0.04,"46":0.055,"47":0.045,"48":0.065,"49":0.06,"50":0.04,"51":0.02,"52":0.035,"53":0.03,"54":0.045,"55":0.015,"56":0.02,"57":0.035,"58":0.01,"59":0.01,"60":0.025,"61":0.005,"62":0.005,"63":0.015,"65":0.005,"66":0.005,"70":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"16":0.01,"17":0.005,"18":0.01,"19":0.01,"20":0.005,"21":0.01,"22":0.03,"23":0.04,"24":0.055,"25":0.04,"26":0.075,"27":0.065,"28":0.075,"29":0.13,"30":0.065,"31":0.05,"32":0.07,"33":0.08,"34":0.065,"35":0.04,"36":0.02,"37":0.015,"38":0.015,"39":0.005,"40":0.01,"41":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"12":0.005,"13":0.005,"14":0.005,"15":0.015,"16":0.03,"17":0.005,"18":0.015,"19":0.035,"20":0.045,"21":0.03,"22":0.015,"23":0.045,"24":0.05,"25":0.045,"26":0.025,"27":0.04,"28":0.07,"29":0.06,"30":0.045,"31":0.08,"32":0.045,"33":0.04,"34":0.04,"35":0.03,"36":0.01,"37":0.01,"38":0.025,"39":0.02,"40":0.015,"41":0.025,"42":0.01,"43":0.02,"44":0.005,"45":0.01,"46":0.005,"48":0.01,"50":0.005,"52":0.005,"68":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1688860800000,"validUntil":1691452800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":3,"actual":3,"trainingCount":5366,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2023","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":1.8062250000000004,"mean":6.855,"median":6,"bias":3.8550000000000004,"maeMean":3.8550000000000004,"maeMedian":3,"low":1,"high":16,"coverage":true,"width":15,"pitLower":0.14,"pitUpper":0.235,"empiricalMass":0.095,"logScore":2.353878387381596},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.5018999999999998,"mean":3.03,"median":3,"bias":0.029999999999999805,"maeMean":0.029999999999999805,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":7,"coverage":true,"width":7,"pitLower":0.48,"pitUpper":0.635,"empiricalMass":0.155,"logScore":1.8643301620628905},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":1.7566250000000005,"mean":6.785,"median":6,"bias":3.785,"maeMean":3.785,"maeMedian":3,"low":1,"high":15,"coverage":true,"width":14,"pitLower":0.18,"pitUpper":0.315,"empiricalMass":0.135,"logScore":2.0024805005437076},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":1.8689500000000001,"mean":5.95,"median":6,"bias":2.95,"maeMean":2.95,"maeMedian":3,"low":2,"high":10,"coverage":true,"width":8,"pitLower":0.055,"pitUpper":0.105,"empiricalMass":0.05,"logScore":2.995732273553991},"recentPoisson":{"crps":1.0679250000000002,"mean":4.935,"median":5,"bias":1.9349999999999996,"maeMean":1.9349999999999996,"maeMedian":2,"low":1,"high":9,"coverage":true,"width":8,"pitLower":0.135,"pitUpper":0.275,"empiricalMass":0.14,"logScore":1.9661128563728327},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.8383499999999999,"mean":4.57,"median":4,"bias":1.5700000000000003,"maeMean":1.5700000000000003,"maeMedian":1,"low":1,"high":9,"coverage":true,"width":8,"pitLower":0.22,"pitUpper":0.35,"empiricalMass":0.13,"logScore":2.0402208285265546}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.015,"1":0.04,"2":0.085,"3":0.095,"4":0.115,"5":0.12,"6":0.09,"7":0.1,"8":0.08,"9":0.045,"10":0.05,"11":0.04,"12":0.025,"13":0.035,"14":0.005,"15":0.005,"16":0.005,"17":0.01,"18":0.01,"20":0.005,"21":0.005,"22":0.005,"24":0.005,"30":0.005,"32":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.05,"1":0.22,"2":0.21,"3":0.155,"4":0.16,"5":0.095,"6":0.03,"7":0.035,"8":0.03,"9":0.005,"10":0.01},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.01,"1":0.065,"2":0.105,"3":0.135,"4":0.055,"5":0.07,"6":0.11,"7":0.095,"8":0.075,"9":0.06,"10":0.035,"11":0.045,"12":0.03,"13":0.03,"14":0.015,"15":0.02,"16":0.01,"17":0.005,"18":0.005,"19":0.005,"20":0.005,"26":0.005,"29":0.005,"32":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"1":0.02,"2":0.035,"3":0.05,"4":0.155,"5":0.175,"6":0.2,"7":0.155,"8":0.085,"9":0.07,"10":0.02,"11":0.02,"13":0.01,"14":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.01,"1":0.04,"2":0.085,"3":0.14,"4":0.195,"5":0.135,"6":0.145,"7":0.13,"8":0.035,"9":0.065,"10":0.015,"11":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.015,"1":0.05,"2":0.155,"3":0.13,"4":0.195,"5":0.155,"6":0.1,"7":0.065,"8":0.06,"9":0.03,"10":0.035,"11":0.01}}},{"issuedAt":1688860800000,"validUntil":1691452800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":4,"actual":1,"trainingCount":5366,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2023","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.30525,"mean":0.86,"median":0,"bias":-0.14,"maeMean":0.14,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.51,"pitUpper":0.815,"empiricalMass":0.305,"logScore":1.1874435023747254},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.5338,"mean":0.3,"median":0,"bias":-0.7,"maeMean":0.7,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0.73,"pitUpper":0.97,"empiricalMass":0.24,"logScore":1.4271163556401458},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.319125,"mean":0.895,"median":0.5,"bias":-0.10499999999999998,"maeMean":0.10499999999999998,"maeMedian":0.5,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.5,"pitUpper":0.75,"empiricalMass":0.25,"logScore":1.3862943611198906},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.21355000000000002,"mean":0.78,"median":1,"bias":-0.21999999999999997,"maeMean":0.21999999999999997,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.435,"pitUpper":0.85,"empiricalMass":0.415,"logScore":0.8794767587514388},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.37232499999999996,"mean":0.525,"median":0,"bias":-0.475,"maeMean":0.475,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.6,"pitUpper":0.89,"empiricalMass":0.29,"logScore":1.2378743560016174},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.35224999999999995,"mean":0.56,"median":0,"bias":-0.43999999999999995,"maeMean":0.43999999999999995,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.58,"pitUpper":0.875,"empiricalMass":0.295,"logScore":1.2207799226423173}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.51,"1":0.305,"2":0.095,"3":0.045,"4":0.02,"5":0.015,"6":0.005,"9":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.73,"1":0.24,"2":0.03},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.5,"1":0.25,"2":0.18,"3":0.04,"4":0.005,"5":0.015,"7":0.01},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.435,"1":0.415,"2":0.11,"3":0.03,"5":0.005,"6":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.6,"1":0.29,"2":0.095,"3":0.015},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.58,"1":0.295,"2":0.11,"3":0.015}}},{"issuedAt":1691452800000,"validUntil":1691539200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":2,"actual":2,"trainingCount":5380,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2023","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.6521250000000001,"mean":1.565,"median":1,"bias":-0.43500000000000005,"maeMean":0.43500000000000005,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.655,"pitUpper":0.825,"empiricalMass":0.17,"logScore":1.7719568419318752},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.8526750000000001,"mean":0.945,"median":1,"bias":-1.0550000000000002,"maeMean":1.0550000000000002,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.795,"pitUpper":0.915,"empiricalMass":0.12,"logScore":2.120263536200091},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.697225,"mean":1.385,"median":1,"bias":-0.615,"maeMean":0.615,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.66,"pitUpper":0.8,"empiricalMass":0.14,"logScore":1.9661128563728327},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.42352499999999993,"mean":1.445,"median":1,"bias":-0.5549999999999999,"maeMean":0.5549999999999999,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.59,"pitUpper":0.84,"empiricalMass":0.25,"logScore":1.3862943611198906},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.8826,"mean":0.8,"median":1,"bias":-1.2,"maeMean":1.2,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.82,"pitUpper":0.945,"empiricalMass":0.125,"logScore":2.0794415416798357},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.7602249999999999,"mean":0.925,"median":1,"bias":-1.075,"maeMean":1.075,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.75,"pitUpper":0.91,"empiricalMass":0.16,"logScore":1.8325814637483102}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.405,"1":0.25,"2":0.17,"3":0.06,"4":0.035,"5":0.03,"6":0.01,"8":0.005,"9":0.005,"10":0.005,"11":0.01,"12":0.005,"13":0.005,"15":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.46,"1":0.335,"2":0.12,"3":0.055,"4":0.015,"5":0.005,"12":0.01},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.445,"1":0.215,"2":0.14,"3":0.075,"4":0.055,"5":0.025,"6":0.015,"7":0.02,"8":0.005,"10":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.21,"1":0.38,"2":0.25,"3":0.085,"4":0.065,"5":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.455,"1":0.365,"2":0.125,"3":0.045,"4":0.005,"6":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.435,"1":0.315,"2":0.16,"3":0.07,"4":0.02}}},{"issuedAt":1691452800000,"validUntil":1691539200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":3,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5380,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2023","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.025574999999999987,"mean":0.215,"median":0,"bias":0.215,"maeMean":0.215,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.845,"empiricalMass":0.845,"logScore":0.16841865162496325},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.01015000000000002,"mean":0.14,"median":0,"bias":0.14,"maeMean":0.14,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.905,"empiricalMass":0.905,"logScore":0.0998203352822109},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.021650000000000003,"mean":0.17,"median":0,"bias":0.17,"maeMean":0.17,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.855,"empiricalMass":0.855,"logScore":0.15665381004537685},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.027324999999999988,"mean":0.175,"median":0,"bias":0.175,"maeMean":0.175,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.835,"empiricalMass":0.835,"logScore":0.18032355413128162},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.017125,"mean":0.145,"median":0,"bias":0.145,"maeMean":0.145,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.87,"empiricalMass":0.87,"logScore":0.13926206733350766},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.010024999999999992,"mean":0.105,"median":0,"bias":0.105,"maeMean":0.105,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.9,"empiricalMass":0.9,"logScore":0.10536051565782628}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.845,"1":0.12,"2":0.02,"3":0.005,"4":0.01},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.905,"1":0.065,"2":0.015,"3":0.015},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.855,"1":0.12,"2":0.025},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.835,"1":0.155,"2":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.87,"1":0.115,"2":0.015},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.9,"1":0.095,"2":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1691452800000,"validUntil":1691539200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5380,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2023","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.0006250000000000006,"mean":0.025,"median":0,"bias":0.025,"maeMean":0.025,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.975,"empiricalMass":0.975,"logScore":0.025317807984289897},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.0006250000000000006,"mean":0.025,"median":0,"bias":0.025,"maeMean":0.025,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.975,"empiricalMass":0.975,"logScore":0.025317807984289897},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.0002249999999999995,"mean":0.015,"median":0,"bias":0.015,"maeMean":0.015,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.985,"empiricalMass":0.985,"logScore":0.015113637810048184},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.0012250000000000039,"mean":0.035,"median":0,"bias":0.035,"maeMean":0.035,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.965,"empiricalMass":0.965,"logScore":0.03562717764315116},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.00002499999999999985,"mean":0.005,"median":0,"bias":0.005,"maeMean":0.005,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.995,"empiricalMass":0.995,"logScore":0.005012541823544286},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.0006250000000000006,"mean":0.025,"median":0,"bias":0.025,"maeMean":0.025,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.975,"empiricalMass":0.975,"logScore":0.025317807984289897}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.975,"1":0.025},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.975,"1":0.025},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.985,"1":0.015},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.965,"1":0.035},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.995,"1":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.975,"1":0.025}}},{"issuedAt":1691452800000,"validUntil":1692057600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":2,"actual":4,"trainingCount":5380,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2023","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":2.7806499999999996,"mean":10.83,"median":8,"bias":6.83,"maeMean":6.83,"maeMedian":4,"low":3,"high":27,"coverage":true,"width":24,"pitLower":0.105,"pitUpper":0.18,"empiricalMass":0.075,"logScore":2.5902671654458267},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.8669,"mean":5.63,"median":5,"bias":1.63,"maeMean":1.63,"maeMedian":1,"low":2,"high":11,"coverage":true,"width":9,"pitLower":0.25,"pitUpper":0.39,"empiricalMass":0.14,"logScore":1.9661128563728327},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":3.28505,"mean":10.73,"median":9,"bias":6.73,"maeMean":6.73,"maeMedian":5,"low":2,"high":22,"coverage":true,"width":20,"pitLower":0.13,"pitUpper":0.175,"empiricalMass":0.045,"logScore":3.101092789211817},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":5.0055499999999995,"mean":10.72,"median":11,"bias":6.720000000000001,"maeMean":6.720000000000001,"maeMedian":7,"low":6,"high":16,"coverage":false,"width":10,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.005,"empiricalMass":0.005,"logScore":5.298317366548036},"recentPoisson":{"crps":1.2325,"mean":6.21,"median":6,"bias":2.21,"maeMean":2.21,"maeMedian":2,"low":2,"high":11,"coverage":true,"width":9,"pitLower":0.14,"pitUpper":0.26,"empiricalMass":0.12,"logScore":2.120263536200091},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":1.1824250000000003,"mean":6.315,"median":6,"bias":2.3150000000000004,"maeMean":2.3150000000000004,"maeMedian":2,"low":1,"high":13,"coverage":true,"width":12,"pitLower":0.245,"pitUpper":0.39,"empiricalMass":0.145,"logScore":1.9310215365615626}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.005,"1":0.005,"2":0.025,"3":0.07,"4":0.075,"5":0.08,"6":0.14,"7":0.07,"8":0.07,"9":0.045,"10":0.045,"11":0.055,"12":0.06,"13":0.035,"14":0.025,"15":0.03,"16":0.025,"17":0.015,"18":0.035,"19":0.005,"20":0.005,"21":0.005,"22":0.005,"24":0.01,"25":0.005,"27":0.005,"30":0.005,"34":0.005,"35":0.01,"37":0.005,"38":0.005,"39":0.005,"60":0.005,"79":0.005,"82":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.01,"1":0.035,"2":0.085,"3":0.12,"4":0.14,"5":0.155,"6":0.13,"7":0.09,"8":0.075,"9":0.045,"10":0.055,"11":0.02,"12":0.01,"13":0.015,"15":0.01,"16":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"1":0.02,"2":0.03,"3":0.08,"4":0.045,"5":0.06,"6":0.075,"7":0.075,"8":0.055,"9":0.075,"10":0.08,"11":0.035,"12":0.07,"13":0.05,"14":0.035,"15":0.035,"16":0.045,"17":0.03,"18":0.02,"19":0.005,"20":0.01,"21":0.01,"22":0.01,"23":0.01,"24":0.01,"25":0.005,"26":0.005,"30":0.005,"43":0.005,"65":0.005,"84":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"4":0.005,"5":0.035,"6":0.045,"7":0.065,"8":0.075,"9":0.13,"10":0.135,"11":0.145,"12":0.105,"13":0.075,"14":0.055,"15":0.065,"16":0.035,"17":0.015,"18":0.005,"19":0.005,"21":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.005,"1":0.015,"2":0.045,"3":0.075,"4":0.12,"5":0.155,"6":0.15,"7":0.16,"8":0.095,"9":0.055,"10":0.055,"11":0.045,"12":0.02,"13":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.02,"1":0.045,"2":0.08,"3":0.1,"4":0.145,"5":0.105,"6":0.065,"7":0.1,"8":0.07,"9":0.075,"10":0.025,"11":0.055,"12":0.05,"13":0.015,"14":0.025,"15":0.02,"16":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1691452800000,"validUntil":1692057600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":3,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5380,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2023","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.462425,"mean":1.305,"median":1,"bias":1.305,"maeMean":1.305,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":6,"coverage":true,"width":6,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.42,"empiricalMass":0.42,"logScore":0.8675005677047231},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.21277500000000005,"mean":0.655,"median":0,"bias":0.655,"maeMean":0.655,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.56,"empiricalMass":0.56,"logScore":0.579818495252942},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.536,"mean":1.28,"median":1,"bias":1.28,"maeMean":1.28,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.385,"empiricalMass":0.385,"logScore":0.9545119446943529},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.754175,"mean":1.415,"median":1,"bias":1.415,"maeMean":1.415,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.245,"empiricalMass":0.245,"logScore":1.40649706843741},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.47382499999999994,"mean":0.975,"median":1,"bias":0.975,"maeMean":0.975,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.36,"empiricalMass":0.36,"logScore":1.0216512475319814},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.37407499999999994,"mean":0.945,"median":1,"bias":0.945,"maeMean":0.945,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.445,"empiricalMass":0.445,"logScore":0.8096809968158968}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.42,"1":0.285,"2":0.145,"3":0.06,"4":0.03,"5":0.005,"6":0.02,"7":0.015,"8":0.01,"9":0.005,"11":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.56,"1":0.315,"2":0.07,"3":0.035,"4":0.01,"5":0.005,"6":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.385,"1":0.265,"2":0.175,"3":0.115,"4":0.04,"5":0.005,"6":0.005,"10":0.005,"11":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.245,"1":0.37,"2":0.215,"3":0.09,"4":0.055,"5":0.025},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.36,"1":0.4,"2":0.16,"3":0.065,"4":0.015},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.445,"1":0.325,"2":0.12,"3":0.08,"4":0.02,"5":0.005,"7":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1691452800000,"validUntil":1692057600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5380,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2023","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.013850000000000001,"mean":0.15,"median":0,"bias":0.15,"maeMean":0.15,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.885,"empiricalMass":0.885,"logScore":0.12216763397420753},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.004900000000000002,"mean":0.07,"median":0,"bias":0.07,"maeMean":0.07,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.93,"empiricalMass":0.93,"logScore":0.07257069283483537},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.007650000000000004,"mean":0.11,"median":0,"bias":0.11,"maeMean":0.11,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.915,"empiricalMass":0.915,"logScore":0.0888312137066157},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.02312499999999998,"mean":0.175,"median":0,"bias":0.175,"maeMean":0.175,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.85,"empiricalMass":0.85,"logScore":0.16251892949777494},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.0121,"mean":0.11,"median":0,"bias":0.11,"maeMean":0.11,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.89,"empiricalMass":0.89,"logScore":0.11653381625595151},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.018225000000000005,"mean":0.135,"median":0,"bias":0.135,"maeMean":0.135,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.865,"empiricalMass":0.865,"logScore":0.14502577205025774}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.885,"1":0.095,"2":0.005,"3":0.015},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.93,"1":0.07},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.915,"1":0.065,"2":0.015,"3":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.85,"1":0.125,"2":0.025},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.89,"1":0.11},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.865,"1":0.135}}},{"issuedAt":1691452800000,"validUntil":1694044800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":2,"actual":18,"trainingCount":5380,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2023","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":20.149575,"mean":51.735,"median":45.5,"bias":33.735,"maeMean":33.735,"maeMedian":27.5,"low":21,"high":107,"coverage":false,"width":86,"pitLower":0.02,"pitUpper":0.03,"empiricalMass":0.01,"logScore":4.605170185988091},"rollingETAS":{"crps":5.0093749999999995,"mean":26.235,"median":25.5,"bias":8.235,"maeMean":8.235,"maeMedian":7.5,"low":17,"high":39,"coverage":true,"width":22,"pitLower":0.065,"pitUpper":0.105,"empiricalMass":0.04,"logScore":3.2188758248682006},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":21.485775,"mean":51.615,"median":48,"bias":33.615,"maeMean":33.615,"maeMedian":30,"low":22,"high":95,"coverage":false,"width":73,"pitLower":0.015,"pitUpper":0.02,"empiricalMass":0.005,"logScore":5.298317366548036},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":24.340675,"mean":46.045,"median":46,"bias":28.045,"maeMean":28.045,"maeMedian":28,"low":37,"high":57,"coverage":false,"width":20,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentPoisson":{"crps":6.76135,"mean":27.41,"median":27.5,"bias":9.41,"maeMean":9.41,"maeMedian":9.5,"low":19,"high":34,"coverage":false,"width":15,"pitLower":0.015,"pitUpper":0.03,"empiricalMass":0.015,"logScore":4.199705077879927},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":4.797624999999999,"mean":26.565,"median":26,"bias":8.565000000000001,"maeMean":8.565000000000001,"maeMedian":8,"low":14,"high":43,"coverage":true,"width":29,"pitLower":0.13,"pitUpper":0.18,"empiricalMass":0.05,"logScore":2.995732273553991}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"13":0.005,"17":0.015,"18":0.01,"19":0.015,"21":0.005,"22":0.025,"23":0.01,"24":0.01,"25":0.01,"26":0.01,"27":0.005,"28":0.02,"29":0.005,"30":0.01,"31":0.025,"32":0.04,"33":0.045,"34":0.015,"35":0.015,"36":0.01,"37":0.04,"38":0.01,"39":0.005,"40":0.035,"41":0.035,"42":0.015,"43":0.02,"44":0.01,"45":0.025,"46":0.015,"47":0.015,"48":0.03,"49":0.01,"50":0.02,"51":0.01,"52":0.015,"53":0.02,"54":0.01,"55":0.01,"56":0.02,"57":0.01,"58":0.01,"59":0.02,"60":0.005,"61":0.01,"62":0.005,"63":0.005,"64":0.03,"65":0.02,"66":0.005,"67":0.01,"68":0.025,"69":0.005,"71":0.01,"72":0.005,"74":0.005,"75":0.01,"76":0.005,"77":0.005,"81":0.005,"86":0.005,"88":0.005,"89":0.005,"90":0.005,"91":0.01,"92":0.005,"93":0.005,"94":0.005,"95":0.005,"101":0.005,"104":0.005,"105":0.005,"107":0.005,"110":0.005,"115":0.01,"116":0.01,"117":0.005,"123":0.01,"154":0.005,"169":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"13":0.005,"15":0.005,"16":0.025,"17":0.03,"18":0.04,"19":0.035,"20":0.02,"21":0.055,"22":0.055,"23":0.08,"24":0.095,"25":0.055,"26":0.06,"27":0.075,"28":0.05,"29":0.05,"30":0.065,"31":0.03,"32":0.025,"33":0.035,"34":0.02,"35":0.02,"36":0.01,"39":0.015,"40":0.005,"41":0.01,"42":0.005,"43":0.005,"44":0.01,"46":0.005,"48":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"16":0.005,"17":0.01,"18":0.005,"19":0.005,"20":0.01,"21":0.005,"22":0.01,"23":0.005,"24":0.01,"25":0.005,"26":0.02,"27":0.01,"28":0.02,"29":0.025,"30":0.01,"31":0.025,"32":0.015,"33":0.02,"34":0.01,"35":0.02,"36":0.025,"37":0.015,"38":0.02,"39":0.01,"40":0.045,"41":0.01,"42":0.03,"43":0.005,"44":0.045,"45":0.02,"46":0.015,"47":0.01,"48":0.03,"49":0.005,"50":0.01,"51":0.03,"52":0.015,"53":0.005,"54":0.035,"55":0.02,"56":0.01,"57":0.01,"58":0.005,"59":0.025,"60":0.03,"61":0.025,"62":0.025,"63":0.005,"64":0.025,"65":0.01,"66":0.005,"67":0.005,"68":0.01,"70":0.01,"72":0.015,"73":0.005,"74":0.015,"75":0.005,"77":0.005,"78":0.005,"79":0.005,"83":0.005,"84":0.01,"85":0.005,"86":0.005,"89":0.005,"94":0.01,"95":0.01,"96":0.005,"99":0.005,"107":0.005,"109":0.005,"110":0.005,"121":0.005,"124":0.005,"125":0.005,"133":0.005,"144":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"26":0.005,"28":0.005,"30":0.005,"31":0.01,"35":0.005,"36":0.01,"37":0.035,"38":0.05,"39":0.03,"40":0.035,"41":0.06,"42":0.06,"43":0.055,"44":0.065,"45":0.05,"46":0.07,"47":0.065,"48":0.065,"49":0.035,"50":0.02,"51":0.03,"52":0.07,"53":0.03,"54":0.02,"55":0.015,"56":0.03,"57":0.03,"58":0.005,"59":0.015,"60":0.015,"64":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"15":0.005,"16":0.005,"17":0.005,"18":0.015,"19":0.03,"20":0.025,"21":0.03,"22":0.04,"23":0.06,"24":0.075,"25":0.065,"26":0.055,"27":0.09,"28":0.065,"29":0.08,"30":0.08,"31":0.075,"32":0.05,"33":0.05,"34":0.055,"35":0.015,"36":0.005,"37":0.005,"38":0.005,"39":0.01,"40":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"5":0.005,"10":0.005,"11":0.005,"12":0.01,"13":0.02,"14":0.005,"15":0.02,"16":0.025,"17":0.035,"18":0.05,"19":0.02,"20":0.01,"21":0.075,"22":0.03,"23":0.085,"24":0.055,"25":0.035,"26":0.055,"27":0.025,"28":0.055,"29":0.05,"30":0.035,"31":0.07,"32":0.035,"33":0.015,"34":0.02,"35":0.03,"36":0.005,"37":0.01,"38":0.015,"39":0.025,"43":0.015,"44":0.02,"45":0.005,"48":0.005,"51":0.005,"53":0.005,"55":0.005,"57":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1691452800000,"validUntil":1694044800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":3,"actual":1,"trainingCount":5380,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2023","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":2.8212999999999995,"mean":6.21,"median":5,"bias":5.21,"maeMean":5.21,"maeMedian":4,"low":1,"high":15,"coverage":true,"width":14,"pitLower":0.03,"pitUpper":0.105,"empiricalMass":0.075,"logScore":2.5902671654458267},"rollingETAS":{"crps":1.171925,"mean":3.105,"median":3,"bias":2.105,"maeMean":2.105,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":7,"coverage":true,"width":7,"pitLower":0.07,"pitUpper":0.215,"empiricalMass":0.145,"logScore":1.9310215365615626},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":2.9950000000000006,"mean":6.19,"median":5,"bias":5.19,"maeMean":5.19,"maeMedian":4,"low":1,"high":14,"coverage":true,"width":13,"pitLower":0.02,"pitUpper":0.105,"empiricalMass":0.085,"logScore":2.4651040224918206},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":3.7811000000000003,"mean":6.2,"median":6,"bias":5.2,"maeMean":5.2,"maeMedian":5,"low":2,"high":11,"coverage":false,"width":9,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.005,"empiricalMass":0.005,"logScore":5.298317366548036},"recentPoisson":{"crps":2.3412,"mean":4.47,"median":4,"bias":3.4699999999999998,"maeMean":3.4699999999999998,"maeMedian":3,"low":1,"high":8,"coverage":true,"width":7,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.05,"empiricalMass":0.05,"logScore":2.995732273553991},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":1.9953249999999998,"mean":4.325,"median":4,"bias":3.325,"maeMean":3.325,"maeMedian":3,"low":1,"high":9,"coverage":true,"width":8,"pitLower":0.04,"pitUpper":0.12,"empiricalMass":0.08,"logScore":2.5257286443082556}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.03,"1":0.075,"2":0.095,"3":0.13,"4":0.1,"5":0.125,"6":0.085,"7":0.035,"8":0.065,"9":0.06,"10":0.025,"11":0.07,"12":0.005,"13":0.025,"14":0.02,"15":0.015,"16":0.01,"17":0.01,"19":0.005,"23":0.005,"24":0.005,"29":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.07,"1":0.145,"2":0.2,"3":0.195,"4":0.19,"5":0.095,"6":0.035,"7":0.05,"8":0.01,"9":0.005,"11":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.02,"1":0.085,"2":0.09,"3":0.065,"4":0.12,"5":0.145,"6":0.08,"7":0.085,"8":0.065,"9":0.055,"10":0.06,"11":0.03,"12":0.035,"13":0.01,"14":0.01,"15":0.01,"16":0.005,"18":0.015,"19":0.005,"21":0.005,"23":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"1":0.005,"2":0.07,"3":0.06,"4":0.13,"5":0.155,"6":0.14,"7":0.165,"8":0.11,"9":0.07,"10":0.035,"11":0.025,"12":0.02,"13":0.01,"16":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"1":0.05,"2":0.115,"3":0.18,"4":0.2,"5":0.19,"6":0.1,"7":0.09,"8":0.03,"9":0.03,"10":0.005,"11":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.04,"1":0.08,"2":0.145,"3":0.14,"4":0.175,"5":0.115,"6":0.12,"7":0.055,"8":0.075,"9":0.02,"10":0.02,"11":0.01,"13":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1691452800000,"validUntil":1694044800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5380,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2023","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.24865000000000004,"mean":0.76,"median":0,"bias":0.76,"maeMean":0.76,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.55,"empiricalMass":0.55,"logScore":0.5978370007556204},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.08909999999999996,"mean":0.35,"median":0,"bias":0.35,"maeMean":0.35,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.705,"empiricalMass":0.705,"logScore":0.34955747616986843},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.25179999999999997,"mean":0.74,"median":0,"bias":0.74,"maeMean":0.74,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.535,"empiricalMass":0.535,"logScore":0.6254885320861304},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.36045000000000005,"mean":0.78,"median":1,"bias":0.78,"maeMean":0.78,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.425,"empiricalMass":0.425,"logScore":0.8556661100577202},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.267625,"mean":0.645,"median":1,"bias":0.645,"maeMean":0.645,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.495,"empiricalMass":0.495,"logScore":0.7031975164134467},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.19172499999999998,"mean":0.575,"median":0,"bias":0.575,"maeMean":0.575,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.58,"empiricalMass":0.58,"logScore":0.5447271754416722}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.55,"1":0.255,"2":0.11,"3":0.055,"4":0.03},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.705,"1":0.25,"2":0.04,"4":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.535,"1":0.29,"2":0.11,"3":0.04,"4":0.015,"5":0.01},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.425,"1":0.405,"2":0.14,"3":0.025,"4":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.495,"1":0.395,"2":0.09,"3":0.01,"4":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.58,"1":0.3,"2":0.09,"3":0.025,"4":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1694044800000,"validUntil":1694131200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":2,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5398,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2023","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.3677750000000001,"mean":1.225,"median":0.5,"bias":1.225,"maeMean":1.225,"maeMedian":0.5,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.5,"empiricalMass":0.5,"logScore":0.6931471805599453},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.23877499999999996,"mean":0.715,"median":0,"bias":0.715,"maeMean":0.715,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.55,"empiricalMass":0.55,"logScore":0.5978370007556204},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.3955750000000001,"mean":1.205,"median":1,"bias":1.205,"maeMean":1.205,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.475,"empiricalMass":0.475,"logScore":0.7444404749474959},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.904,"mean":1.57,"median":1,"bias":1.57,"maeMean":1.57,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.185,"empiricalMass":0.185,"logScore":1.6873994539038122},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.4398250000000001,"mean":0.935,"median":1,"bias":0.935,"maeMean":0.935,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.385,"empiricalMass":0.385,"logScore":0.9545119446943529},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.36372499999999997,"mean":0.885,"median":1,"bias":0.885,"maeMean":0.885,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.445,"empiricalMass":0.445,"logScore":0.8096809968158968}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.5,"1":0.22,"2":0.125,"3":0.065,"4":0.025,"5":0.025,"6":0.015,"7":0.005,"8":0.005,"9":0.01,"16":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.55,"1":0.265,"2":0.145,"3":0.025,"4":0.005,"6":0.005,"7":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.475,"1":0.24,"2":0.12,"3":0.08,"4":0.04,"5":0.01,"6":0.01,"7":0.01,"8":0.005,"9":0.005,"12":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.185,"1":0.375,"2":0.245,"3":0.11,"4":0.055,"5":0.025,"6":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.385,"1":0.375,"2":0.18,"3":0.04,"4":0.02},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.445,"1":0.33,"2":0.16,"3":0.04,"4":0.01,"5":0.015}}},{"issuedAt":1694044800000,"validUntil":1694131200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":3,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5398,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2023","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.013450000000000004,"mean":0.13,"median":0,"bias":0.13,"maeMean":0.13,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.885,"empiricalMass":0.885,"logScore":0.12216763397420753},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.007300000000000001,"mean":0.11,"median":0,"bias":0.11,"maeMean":0.11,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.92,"empiricalMass":0.92,"logScore":0.08338160893905101},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.014800000000000008,"mean":0.14,"median":0,"bias":0.14,"maeMean":0.14,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.88,"empiricalMass":0.88,"logScore":0.12783337150988489},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.027450000000000002,"mean":0.18,"median":0,"bias":0.18,"maeMean":0.18,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.835,"empiricalMass":0.835,"logScore":0.18032355413128162},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.024425000000000002,"mean":0.175,"median":0,"bias":0.175,"maeMean":0.175,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.845,"empiricalMass":0.845,"logScore":0.16841865162496325},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.009425000000000003,"mean":0.115,"median":0,"bias":0.115,"maeMean":0.115,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.905,"empiricalMass":0.905,"logScore":0.0998203352822109}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.885,"1":0.1,"2":0.015},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.92,"1":0.05,"2":0.03},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.88,"1":0.1,"2":0.02},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.835,"1":0.15,"2":0.015},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.845,"1":0.135,"2":0.02},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.905,"1":0.075,"2":0.02}}},{"issuedAt":1694044800000,"validUntil":1694131200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5398,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2023","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.0002249999999999995,"mean":0.015,"median":0,"bias":0.015,"maeMean":0.015,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.985,"empiricalMass":0.985,"logScore":0.015113637810048184},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.0009250000000000022,"mean":0.035,"median":0,"bias":0.035,"maeMean":0.035,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.97,"empiricalMass":0.97,"logScore":0.030459207484708574},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.0002249999999999995,"mean":0.015,"median":0,"bias":0.015,"maeMean":0.015,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.985,"empiricalMass":0.985,"logScore":0.015113637810048184},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.0012250000000000039,"mean":0.035,"median":0,"bias":0.035,"maeMean":0.035,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.965,"empiricalMass":0.965,"logScore":0.03562717764315116},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.0000999999999999994,"mean":0.01,"median":0,"bias":0.01,"maeMean":0.01,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.99,"empiricalMass":0.99,"logScore":0.01005033585350145},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.0000999999999999994,"mean":0.01,"median":0,"bias":0.01,"maeMean":0.01,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.99,"empiricalMass":0.99,"logScore":0.01005033585350145}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.985,"1":0.015},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.97,"1":0.025,"2":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.985,"1":0.015},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.965,"1":0.035},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.99,"1":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.99,"1":0.01}}},{"issuedAt":1694044800000,"validUntil":1694649600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":2,"actual":5,"trainingCount":5398,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2023","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":2.8022750000000003,"mean":11.055,"median":9,"bias":6.055,"maeMean":6.055,"maeMedian":4,"low":3,"high":26,"coverage":true,"width":23,"pitLower":0.125,"pitUpper":0.2,"empiricalMass":0.075,"logScore":2.5902671654458267},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.6961750000000002,"mean":5.715,"median":5,"bias":0.7149999999999999,"maeMean":0.7149999999999999,"maeMedian":0,"low":1,"high":12,"coverage":true,"width":11,"pitLower":0.385,"pitUpper":0.55,"empiricalMass":0.165,"logScore":1.8018098050815563},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":2.3577000000000004,"mean":10.79,"median":8.5,"bias":5.789999999999999,"maeMean":5.789999999999999,"maeMedian":3.5,"low":2,"high":29,"coverage":true,"width":27,"pitLower":0.215,"pitUpper":0.27,"empiricalMass":0.055,"logScore":2.900422093749666},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":4.02575,"mean":10.62,"median":10.5,"bias":5.619999999999999,"maeMean":5.619999999999999,"maeMedian":5.5,"low":5,"high":15,"coverage":true,"width":10,"pitLower":0.04,"pitUpper":0.055,"empiricalMass":0.015,"logScore":4.199705077879927},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.67015,"mean":6.23,"median":6,"bias":1.2300000000000004,"maeMean":1.2300000000000004,"maeMedian":1,"low":3,"high":11,"coverage":true,"width":8,"pitLower":0.26,"pitUpper":0.46,"empiricalMass":0.2,"logScore":1.6094379124341003},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.8183750000000001,"mean":6.355,"median":6,"bias":1.3550000000000004,"maeMean":1.3550000000000004,"maeMedian":1,"low":2,"high":12,"coverage":true,"width":10,"pitLower":0.3,"pitUpper":0.425,"empiricalMass":0.125,"logScore":2.0794415416798357}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.015,"1":0.005,"2":0.025,"3":0.03,"4":0.05,"5":0.075,"6":0.09,"7":0.065,"8":0.075,"9":0.085,"10":0.065,"11":0.08,"12":0.03,"13":0.045,"14":0.035,"15":0.045,"16":0.035,"17":0.01,"18":0.025,"19":0.005,"20":0.02,"21":0.015,"25":0.02,"26":0.005,"27":0.005,"29":0.005,"30":0.01,"32":0.005,"33":0.005,"34":0.015,"60":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.01,"1":0.04,"2":0.1,"3":0.145,"4":0.09,"5":0.165,"6":0.105,"7":0.12,"8":0.035,"9":0.07,"10":0.04,"11":0.025,"12":0.015,"13":0.01,"14":0.005,"15":0.005,"16":0.01,"18":0.005,"19":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.01,"1":0.02,"2":0.035,"3":0.09,"4":0.06,"5":0.055,"6":0.06,"7":0.105,"8":0.065,"9":0.1,"10":0.035,"11":0.06,"12":0.045,"13":0.025,"14":0.025,"15":0.03,"16":0.025,"17":0.015,"18":0.015,"19":0.005,"20":0.02,"21":0.005,"23":0.005,"24":0.005,"25":0.015,"26":0.015,"29":0.01,"30":0.005,"31":0.005,"32":0.005,"35":0.005,"37":0.005,"47":0.005,"53":0.005,"57":0.005,"60":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"3":0.02,"4":0.02,"5":0.015,"6":0.03,"7":0.04,"8":0.09,"9":0.135,"10":0.15,"11":0.15,"12":0.085,"13":0.09,"14":0.065,"15":0.06,"16":0.02,"17":0.015,"18":0.01,"21":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"2":0.04,"3":0.085,"4":0.135,"5":0.2,"6":0.14,"7":0.11,"8":0.12,"9":0.05,"10":0.055,"11":0.025,"12":0.02,"13":0.01,"14":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.01,"1":0.02,"2":0.07,"3":0.095,"4":0.105,"5":0.125,"6":0.165,"7":0.09,"8":0.12,"9":0.06,"10":0.04,"11":0.025,"12":0.04,"13":0.01,"14":0.005,"15":0.005,"17":0.01,"29":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1694044800000,"validUntil":1694649600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":3,"actual":1,"trainingCount":5398,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2023","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.3024000000000001,"mean":1.35,"median":1,"bias":0.3500000000000001,"maeMean":0.3500000000000001,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.375,"pitUpper":0.665,"empiricalMass":0.29,"logScore":1.2378743560016174},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.33105,"mean":0.65,"median":0,"bias":-0.35,"maeMean":0.35,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.56,"pitUpper":0.88,"empiricalMass":0.32,"logScore":1.1394342831883648},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.3712000000000001,"mean":1.39,"median":1,"bias":0.3899999999999999,"maeMean":0.3899999999999999,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.46,"pitUpper":0.67,"empiricalMass":0.21,"logScore":1.5606477482646683},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.32152499999999995,"mean":1.415,"median":1,"bias":0.41500000000000004,"maeMean":0.41500000000000004,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.27,"pitUpper":0.53,"empiricalMass":0.26,"logScore":1.3470736479666092},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.19242499999999996,"mean":1.105,"median":1,"bias":0.10499999999999998,"maeMean":0.10499999999999998,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.32,"pitUpper":0.72,"empiricalMass":0.4,"logScore":0.916290731874155},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.25797499999999995,"mean":0.955,"median":1,"bias":-0.04500000000000004,"maeMean":0.04500000000000004,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.44,"pitUpper":0.775,"empiricalMass":0.335,"logScore":1.0936247471570706}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.375,"1":0.29,"2":0.135,"3":0.12,"4":0.035,"5":0.02,"6":0.005,"7":0.015,"11":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.56,"1":0.32,"2":0.07,"3":0.03,"4":0.01,"5":0.005,"7":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.46,"1":0.21,"2":0.16,"3":0.065,"4":0.035,"5":0.02,"6":0.01,"7":0.015,"9":0.005,"10":0.01,"11":0.005,"12":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.27,"1":0.26,"2":0.31,"3":0.115,"4":0.035,"5":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.32,"1":0.4,"2":0.18,"3":0.06,"4":0.035,"5":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.44,"1":0.335,"2":0.12,"3":0.055,"4":0.035,"5":0.015}}},{"issuedAt":1694044800000,"validUntil":1694649600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5398,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2023","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.01235,"mean":0.13,"median":0,"bias":0.13,"maeMean":0.13,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.89,"empiricalMass":0.89,"logScore":0.11653381625595151},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.0009250000000000022,"mean":0.035,"median":0,"bias":0.035,"maeMean":0.035,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.97,"empiricalMass":0.97,"logScore":0.030459207484708574},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.01974999999999999,"mean":0.16,"median":0,"bias":0.16,"maeMean":0.16,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.86,"empiricalMass":0.86,"logScore":0.15082288973458366},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.025824999999999987,"mean":0.175,"median":0,"bias":0.175,"maeMean":0.175,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.84,"empiricalMass":0.84,"logScore":0.1743533871447778},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.01212500000000001,"mean":0.115,"median":0,"bias":0.115,"maeMean":0.115,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.89,"empiricalMass":0.89,"logScore":0.11653381625595151},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.014800000000000008,"mean":0.14,"median":0,"bias":0.14,"maeMean":0.14,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.88,"empiricalMass":0.88,"logScore":0.12783337150988489}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.89,"1":0.095,"2":0.01,"3":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.97,"1":0.025,"2":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.86,"1":0.13,"2":0.005,"4":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.84,"1":0.145,"2":0.015},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.89,"1":0.105,"2":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.88,"1":0.1,"2":0.02}}},{"issuedAt":1694044800000,"validUntil":1696636800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":2,"actual":17,"trainingCount":5398,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2023","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":19.379949999999997,"mean":48.93,"median":42,"bias":31.93,"maeMean":31.93,"maeMedian":25,"low":21,"high":111,"coverage":false,"width":90,"pitLower":0.025,"pitUpper":0.025,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"rollingETAS":{"crps":6.034125,"mean":26.745,"median":26.5,"bias":9.745000000000001,"maeMean":9.745000000000001,"maeMedian":9.5,"low":16,"high":42,"coverage":true,"width":26,"pitLower":0.065,"pitUpper":0.12,"empiricalMass":0.055,"logScore":2.900422093749666},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":19.719225,"mean":47.965,"median":42,"bias":30.965000000000003,"maeMean":30.965000000000003,"maeMedian":25,"low":23,"high":89,"coverage":false,"width":66,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.005,"empiricalMass":0.005,"logScore":5.298317366548036},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":24.211624999999998,"mean":45.415,"median":45.5,"bias":28.415,"maeMean":28.415,"maeMedian":28.5,"low":34,"high":57,"coverage":false,"width":23,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentPoisson":{"crps":6.044449999999999,"mean":25.87,"median":26,"bias":8.870000000000001,"maeMean":8.870000000000001,"maeMedian":9,"low":17,"high":35,"coverage":true,"width":18,"pitLower":0.035,"pitUpper":0.05,"empiricalMass":0.015,"logScore":4.199705077879927},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":5.213725,"mean":26.125,"median":25,"bias":9.125,"maeMean":9.125,"maeMedian":8,"low":13,"high":40,"coverage":true,"width":27,"pitLower":0.12,"pitUpper":0.15,"empiricalMass":0.03,"logScore":3.506557897319982}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"14":0.005,"15":0.005,"16":0.015,"18":0.005,"19":0.005,"20":0.01,"21":0.015,"23":0.015,"24":0.01,"25":0.015,"26":0.005,"27":0.01,"28":0.02,"29":0.005,"30":0.02,"31":0.025,"32":0.025,"33":0.05,"34":0.025,"35":0.03,"36":0.025,"37":0.025,"38":0.015,"39":0.04,"40":0.035,"41":0.03,"42":0.04,"43":0.01,"44":0.025,"45":0.035,"46":0.02,"47":0.015,"48":0.01,"49":0.03,"50":0.005,"51":0.015,"53":0.025,"54":0.01,"55":0.01,"56":0.02,"57":0.02,"58":0.005,"59":0.01,"61":0.025,"62":0.005,"63":0.015,"64":0.005,"66":0.005,"68":0.01,"70":0.005,"71":0.005,"72":0.015,"78":0.005,"79":0.005,"80":0.005,"82":0.01,"83":0.005,"84":0.005,"86":0.005,"88":0.005,"90":0.005,"91":0.005,"95":0.005,"97":0.005,"111":0.005,"112":0.005,"114":0.005,"121":0.005,"123":0.005,"126":0.005,"130":0.005,"137":0.005,"138":0.005,"146":0.005,"156":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"11":0.005,"14":0.02,"15":0.005,"16":0.035,"17":0.055,"18":0.01,"19":0.025,"20":0.03,"21":0.065,"22":0.03,"23":0.055,"24":0.035,"25":0.075,"26":0.055,"27":0.085,"28":0.045,"29":0.055,"30":0.05,"31":0.06,"32":0.015,"33":0.025,"34":0.025,"35":0.035,"36":0.03,"37":0.005,"38":0.015,"42":0.01,"43":0.02,"45":0.01,"46":0.01,"47":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"17":0.005,"19":0.01,"20":0.005,"22":0.005,"23":0.025,"24":0.01,"25":0.015,"26":0.005,"27":0.05,"28":0.01,"29":0.025,"30":0.02,"31":0.025,"32":0.02,"33":0.015,"34":0.035,"35":0.03,"36":0.045,"37":0.04,"38":0.025,"39":0.025,"40":0.015,"41":0.025,"42":0.035,"43":0.02,"44":0.02,"45":0.025,"46":0.01,"47":0.03,"48":0.015,"49":0.01,"50":0.02,"51":0.005,"52":0.005,"53":0.01,"54":0.015,"55":0.03,"56":0.01,"57":0.015,"59":0.02,"61":0.01,"62":0.01,"64":0.01,"65":0.01,"67":0.01,"69":0.01,"72":0.01,"73":0.005,"74":0.005,"76":0.01,"77":0.005,"78":0.005,"79":0.005,"80":0.015,"81":0.01,"82":0.005,"83":0.01,"85":0.005,"86":0.005,"88":0.01,"89":0.01,"90":0.005,"91":0.005,"95":0.01,"106":0.005,"113":0.005,"115":0.005,"121":0.005,"124":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"27":0.005,"29":0.005,"30":0.005,"31":0.01,"32":0.01,"33":0.005,"34":0.04,"35":0.015,"36":0.02,"37":0.04,"38":0.03,"39":0.035,"40":0.04,"41":0.045,"42":0.06,"43":0.045,"44":0.04,"45":0.05,"46":0.07,"47":0.06,"48":0.05,"49":0.025,"50":0.045,"51":0.045,"52":0.02,"53":0.03,"54":0.025,"55":0.03,"56":0.04,"57":0.03,"59":0.01,"60":0.005,"65":0.005,"66":0.005,"71":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"12":0.005,"14":0.005,"15":0.015,"16":0.01,"17":0.015,"18":0.035,"19":0.04,"20":0.035,"21":0.05,"22":0.045,"23":0.075,"24":0.075,"25":0.055,"26":0.095,"27":0.08,"28":0.065,"29":0.06,"30":0.065,"31":0.025,"32":0.04,"33":0.02,"34":0.035,"35":0.02,"36":0.005,"37":0.01,"38":0.01,"39":0.005,"40":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"11":0.02,"12":0.005,"13":0.025,"14":0.025,"15":0.015,"16":0.03,"17":0.03,"18":0.05,"19":0.045,"20":0.025,"21":0.04,"22":0.05,"23":0.035,"24":0.045,"25":0.075,"26":0.045,"27":0.05,"28":0.035,"29":0.03,"30":0.05,"31":0.02,"32":0.035,"33":0.02,"34":0.02,"35":0.015,"36":0.02,"37":0.035,"38":0.02,"39":0.03,"40":0.01,"41":0.015,"42":0.01,"43":0.005,"44":0.005,"45":0.005,"47":0.005,"50":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1694044800000,"validUntil":1696636800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":3,"actual":1,"trainingCount":5398,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2023","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":2.5859500000000004,"mean":5.86,"median":5,"bias":4.86,"maeMean":4.86,"maeMedian":4,"low":1,"high":15,"coverage":true,"width":14,"pitLower":0.04,"pitUpper":0.11,"empiricalMass":0.07,"logScore":2.659260036932778},"rollingETAS":{"crps":1.0871499999999998,"mean":3,"median":3,"bias":2,"maeMean":2,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":7,"coverage":true,"width":7,"pitLower":0.055,"pitUpper":0.225,"empiricalMass":0.17,"logScore":1.7719568419318752},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":2.638725,"mean":5.765,"median":5,"bias":4.765,"maeMean":4.765,"maeMedian":4,"low":1,"high":13,"coverage":true,"width":12,"pitLower":0.015,"pitUpper":0.095,"empiricalMass":0.08,"logScore":2.5257286443082556},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":3.671325,"mean":6.045,"median":6,"bias":5.045,"maeMean":5.045,"maeMedian":5,"low":2,"high":10,"coverage":false,"width":8,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.005,"empiricalMass":0.005,"logScore":5.298317366548036},"recentPoisson":{"crps":2.08315,"mean":4.12,"median":4,"bias":3.12,"maeMean":3.12,"maeMedian":3,"low":1,"high":7,"coverage":true,"width":6,"pitLower":0.015,"pitUpper":0.09,"empiricalMass":0.075,"logScore":2.5902671654458267},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":2.0336999999999996,"mean":4.3,"median":4,"bias":3.3,"maeMean":3.3,"maeMedian":3,"low":1,"high":8,"coverage":true,"width":7,"pitLower":0.02,"pitUpper":0.085,"empiricalMass":0.065,"logScore":2.7333680090865}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.04,"1":0.07,"2":0.085,"3":0.155,"4":0.13,"5":0.13,"6":0.075,"7":0.065,"8":0.035,"9":0.04,"10":0.04,"11":0.02,"12":0.02,"13":0.005,"14":0.015,"15":0.025,"16":0.01,"17":0.005,"18":0.005,"19":0.02,"21":0.005,"22":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.055,"1":0.17,"2":0.225,"3":0.19,"4":0.16,"5":0.11,"6":0.035,"7":0.04,"8":0.01,"10":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.015,"1":0.08,"2":0.115,"3":0.11,"4":0.155,"5":0.11,"6":0.09,"7":0.07,"8":0.04,"9":0.05,"10":0.025,"11":0.035,"12":0.04,"13":0.015,"14":0.005,"15":0.02,"16":0.005,"17":0.005,"19":0.005,"20":0.005,"23":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"1":0.005,"2":0.055,"3":0.11,"4":0.095,"5":0.155,"6":0.22,"7":0.105,"8":0.085,"9":0.095,"10":0.03,"11":0.02,"12":0.01,"13":0.005,"14":0.005,"16":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.015,"1":0.075,"2":0.12,"3":0.195,"4":0.145,"5":0.2,"6":0.145,"7":0.08,"8":0.02,"10":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.02,"1":0.065,"2":0.155,"3":0.205,"4":0.125,"5":0.135,"6":0.13,"7":0.075,"8":0.045,"9":0.02,"10":0.005,"11":0.01,"12":0.005,"14":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1694044800000,"validUntil":1696636800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5398,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2023","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.16059999999999997,"mean":0.6,"median":0,"bias":0.6,"maeMean":0.6,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.625,"empiricalMass":0.625,"logScore":0.4700036292457356},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.10140000000000005,"mean":0.4,"median":0,"bias":0.4,"maeMean":0.4,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.69,"empiricalMass":0.69,"logScore":0.37106368139083207},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.21400000000000002,"mean":0.67,"median":0,"bias":0.67,"maeMean":0.67,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.575,"empiricalMass":0.575,"logScore":0.5533852381847867},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.32705000000000006,"mean":0.8,"median":1,"bias":0.8,"maeMean":0.8,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.475,"empiricalMass":0.475,"logScore":0.7444404749474959},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.22034999999999993,"mean":0.58,"median":0,"bias":0.58,"maeMean":0.58,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.545,"empiricalMass":0.545,"logScore":0.6069694843188929},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.18512500000000004,"mean":0.535,"median":0,"bias":0.535,"maeMean":0.535,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.58,"empiricalMass":0.58,"logScore":0.5447271754416722}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.625,"1":0.25,"2":0.065,"3":0.035,"4":0.015,"5":0.005,"6":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.69,"1":0.24,"2":0.05,"3":0.02},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.575,"1":0.25,"2":0.125,"3":0.035,"4":0.01,"5":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.475,"1":0.305,"2":0.165,"3":0.055},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.545,"1":0.34,"2":0.105,"3":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.58,"1":0.33,"2":0.065,"3":0.025}}},{"issuedAt":1696636800000,"validUntil":1696723200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":2,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5415,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2023","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.26992499999999997,"mean":1.085,"median":0,"bias":1.085,"maeMean":1.085,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.545,"empiricalMass":0.545,"logScore":0.6069694843188929},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.254725,"mean":0.705,"median":0,"bias":0.705,"maeMean":0.705,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.525,"empiricalMass":0.525,"logScore":0.6443570163905132},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.357475,"mean":1.065,"median":1,"bias":1.065,"maeMean":1.065,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.475,"empiricalMass":0.475,"logScore":0.7444404749474959},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.8744000000000001,"mean":1.58,"median":1,"bias":1.58,"maeMean":1.58,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.22,"empiricalMass":0.22,"logScore":1.5141277326297755},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.39585,"mean":0.88,"median":1,"bias":0.88,"maeMean":0.88,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.41,"empiricalMass":0.41,"logScore":0.8915981192837836},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.345,"mean":0.88,"median":1,"bias":0.88,"maeMean":0.88,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.465,"empiricalMass":0.465,"logScore":0.7657178733947807}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.545,"1":0.25,"2":0.095,"3":0.05,"4":0.02,"5":0.005,"6":0.015,"7":0.005,"13":0.005,"18":0.005,"22":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.525,"1":0.31,"2":0.125,"3":0.025,"4":0.01,"6":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.475,"1":0.28,"2":0.13,"3":0.05,"4":0.015,"5":0.015,"6":0.01,"7":0.02,"8":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.22,"1":0.315,"2":0.26,"3":0.125,"4":0.045,"5":0.025,"6":0.005,"7":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.41,"1":0.385,"2":0.13,"3":0.065,"4":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.465,"1":0.305,"2":0.16,"3":0.04,"4":0.025,"7":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1696636800000,"validUntil":1696723200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":3,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5415,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2023","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.012674999999999992,"mean":0.155,"median":0,"bias":0.155,"maeMean":0.155,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.89,"empiricalMass":0.89,"logScore":0.11653381625595151},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.008199999999999999,"mean":0.1,"median":0,"bias":0.1,"maeMean":0.1,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.91,"empiricalMass":0.91,"logScore":0.09431067947124129},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.008375000000000007,"mean":0.115,"median":0,"bias":0.115,"maeMean":0.115,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.91,"empiricalMass":0.91,"logScore":0.09431067947124129},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.03842499999999999,"mean":0.215,"median":0,"bias":0.215,"maeMean":0.215,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.805,"empiricalMass":0.805,"logScore":0.21691300156357363},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.019699999999999995,"mean":0.15,"median":0,"bias":0.15,"maeMean":0.15,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.86,"empiricalMass":0.86,"logScore":0.15082288973458366},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.010024999999999992,"mean":0.105,"median":0,"bias":0.105,"maeMean":0.105,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.9,"empiricalMass":0.9,"logScore":0.10536051565782628}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.89,"1":0.09,"2":0.01,"3":0.005,"6":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.91,"1":0.08,"2":0.01},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.91,"1":0.075,"2":0.01,"4":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.805,"1":0.175,"2":0.02},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.86,"1":0.13,"2":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.9,"1":0.095,"2":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1696636800000,"validUntil":1696723200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5415,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2023","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.0009250000000000022,"mean":0.035,"median":0,"bias":0.035,"maeMean":0.035,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.97,"empiricalMass":0.97,"logScore":0.030459207484708574},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.00002499999999999985,"mean":0.005,"median":0,"bias":0.005,"maeMean":0.005,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.995,"empiricalMass":0.995,"logScore":0.005012541823544286},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.00040000000000000105,"mean":0.02,"median":0,"bias":0.02,"maeMean":0.02,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.98,"empiricalMass":0.98,"logScore":0.020202707317519466},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.002024999999999999,"mean":0.045,"median":0,"bias":0.045,"maeMean":0.045,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.955,"empiricalMass":0.955,"logScore":0.046043938501406846},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.00040000000000000105,"mean":0.02,"median":0,"bias":0.02,"maeMean":0.02,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.98,"empiricalMass":0.98,"logScore":0.020202707317519466},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.00040000000000000105,"mean":0.02,"median":0,"bias":0.02,"maeMean":0.02,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.98,"empiricalMass":0.98,"logScore":0.020202707317519466}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.97,"1":0.025,"2":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.995,"1":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.98,"1":0.02},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.955,"1":0.045},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.98,"1":0.02},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.98,"1":0.02}}},{"issuedAt":1696636800000,"validUntil":1697241600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":2,"actual":2,"trainingCount":5415,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2023","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":3.9650499999999997,"mean":10.06,"median":7,"bias":8.06,"maeMean":8.06,"maeMedian":5,"low":2,"high":22,"coverage":true,"width":20,"pitLower":0.045,"pitUpper":0.105,"empiricalMass":0.06,"logScore":2.8134107167600364},"rollingETAS":{"crps":2.0789,"mean":5.44,"median":5,"bias":3.4400000000000004,"maeMean":3.4400000000000004,"maeMedian":3,"low":1,"high":10,"coverage":true,"width":9,"pitLower":0.05,"pitUpper":0.115,"empiricalMass":0.065,"logScore":2.7333680090865},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":3.788100000000001,"mean":10.33,"median":7,"bias":8.33,"maeMean":8.33,"maeMedian":5,"low":1,"high":28,"coverage":true,"width":27,"pitLower":0.055,"pitUpper":0.12,"empiricalMass":0.065,"logScore":2.7333680090865},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":7.35435,"mean":11.16,"median":11,"bias":9.16,"maeMean":9.16,"maeMedian":9,"low":6,"high":17,"coverage":false,"width":11,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentPoisson":{"crps":2.605025,"mean":5.895,"median":6,"bias":3.8949999999999996,"maeMean":3.8949999999999996,"maeMedian":4,"low":2,"high":10,"coverage":true,"width":8,"pitLower":0.02,"pitUpper":0.065,"empiricalMass":0.045,"logScore":3.101092789211817},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":1.9667999999999997,"mean":5.87,"median":5,"bias":3.87,"maeMean":3.87,"maeMedian":3,"low":1,"high":13,"coverage":true,"width":12,"pitLower":0.055,"pitUpper":0.18,"empiricalMass":0.125,"logScore":2.0794415416798357}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.01,"1":0.035,"2":0.06,"3":0.05,"4":0.045,"5":0.095,"6":0.105,"7":0.11,"8":0.075,"9":0.03,"10":0.075,"11":0.045,"12":0.04,"13":0.025,"14":0.03,"15":0.02,"16":0.025,"17":0.02,"18":0.005,"19":0.025,"21":0.02,"22":0.005,"24":0.005,"26":0.01,"32":0.005,"40":0.005,"47":0.005,"50":0.01,"62":0.005,"88":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"1":0.05,"2":0.065,"3":0.15,"4":0.12,"5":0.15,"6":0.16,"7":0.11,"8":0.055,"9":0.06,"10":0.05,"11":0.01,"12":0.01,"13":0.005,"15":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.015,"1":0.04,"2":0.065,"3":0.065,"4":0.085,"5":0.07,"6":0.105,"7":0.06,"8":0.075,"9":0.055,"10":0.05,"11":0.01,"12":0.065,"13":0.04,"14":0.005,"16":0.04,"17":0.015,"18":0.015,"19":0.03,"21":0.005,"22":0.005,"23":0.005,"25":0.01,"26":0.005,"27":0.005,"28":0.01,"34":0.005,"36":0.005,"39":0.005,"40":0.005,"42":0.005,"45":0.005,"47":0.005,"48":0.005,"57":0.005,"70":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"4":0.005,"5":0.01,"6":0.055,"7":0.045,"8":0.1,"9":0.12,"10":0.12,"11":0.11,"12":0.095,"13":0.115,"14":0.08,"15":0.05,"16":0.04,"17":0.02,"18":0.01,"19":0.015,"20":0.005,"21":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.005,"1":0.015,"2":0.045,"3":0.09,"4":0.145,"5":0.135,"6":0.2,"7":0.145,"8":0.085,"9":0.065,"10":0.03,"11":0.015,"12":0.015,"13":0.005,"15":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.015,"1":0.04,"2":0.125,"3":0.145,"4":0.105,"5":0.105,"6":0.11,"7":0.095,"8":0.06,"9":0.04,"10":0.035,"11":0.035,"12":0.01,"13":0.03,"14":0.01,"15":0.015,"16":0.01,"17":0.005,"18":0.01}}},{"issuedAt":1696636800000,"validUntil":1697241600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":3,"actual":1,"trainingCount":5415,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2023","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.3032499999999999,"mean":1.32,"median":1,"bias":0.32000000000000006,"maeMean":0.32000000000000006,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.415,"pitUpper":0.685,"empiricalMass":0.27,"logScore":1.3093333199837622},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.34375,"mean":0.65,"median":0,"bias":-0.35,"maeMean":0.35,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.56,"pitUpper":0.83,"empiricalMass":0.27,"logScore":1.3093333199837622},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.28284999999999993,"mean":1.37,"median":1,"bias":0.3700000000000001,"maeMean":0.3700000000000001,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.4,"pitUpper":0.73,"empiricalMass":0.33,"logScore":1.1086626245216111},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.31865,"mean":1.55,"median":1,"bias":0.55,"maeMean":0.55,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.24,"pitUpper":0.54,"empiricalMass":0.3,"logScore":1.2039728043259361},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.20519999999999994,"mean":1.02,"median":1,"bias":0.020000000000000018,"maeMean":0.020000000000000018,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.355,"pitUpper":0.73,"empiricalMass":0.375,"logScore":0.9808292530117262},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.2803,"mean":1.06,"median":1,"bias":0.06000000000000005,"maeMean":0.06000000000000005,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.41,"pitUpper":0.685,"empiricalMass":0.275,"logScore":1.2909841813155656}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.415,"1":0.27,"2":0.175,"3":0.065,"4":0.02,"5":0.01,"6":0.02,"7":0.005,"8":0.005,"9":0.005,"10":0.005,"17":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.56,"1":0.27,"2":0.135,"3":0.03,"4":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.4,"1":0.33,"2":0.11,"3":0.04,"4":0.04,"5":0.04,"6":0.01,"7":0.01,"9":0.01,"11":0.005,"13":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.24,"1":0.3,"2":0.255,"3":0.125,"4":0.05,"5":0.02,"6":0.005,"7":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.355,"1":0.375,"2":0.195,"3":0.05,"4":0.02,"5":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.41,"1":0.275,"2":0.205,"3":0.085,"4":0.01,"5":0.01,"6":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1696636800000,"validUntil":1697241600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5415,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2023","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.014700000000000019,"mean":0.17,"median":0,"bias":0.17,"maeMean":0.17,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.885,"empiricalMass":0.885,"logScore":0.12216763397420753},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.0012250000000000039,"mean":0.035,"median":0,"bias":0.035,"maeMean":0.035,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.965,"empiricalMass":0.965,"logScore":0.03562717764315116},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.010850000000000026,"mean":0.14,"median":0,"bias":0.14,"maeMean":0.14,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.9,"empiricalMass":0.9,"logScore":0.10536051565782628},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.03447499999999998,"mean":0.205,"median":0,"bias":0.205,"maeMean":0.205,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.815,"empiricalMass":0.815,"logScore":0.2045671657412744},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.013225,"mean":0.115,"median":0,"bias":0.115,"maeMean":0.115,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.885,"empiricalMass":0.885,"logScore":0.12216763397420753},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.0169,"mean":0.13,"median":0,"bias":0.13,"maeMean":0.13,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.87,"empiricalMass":0.87,"logScore":0.13926206733350766}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.885,"1":0.08,"2":0.02,"3":0.01,"4":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.965,"1":0.035},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.9,"1":0.075,"2":0.01,"3":0.015},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.815,"1":0.17,"2":0.01,"3":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.885,"1":0.115},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.87,"1":0.13}}},{"issuedAt":1696636800000,"validUntil":1699228800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":2,"actual":15,"trainingCount":5415,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2023","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":22.365150000000003,"mean":48.88,"median":45,"bias":33.88,"maeMean":33.88,"maeMedian":30,"low":22,"high":82,"coverage":false,"width":60,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.01,"empiricalMass":0.01,"logScore":4.605170185988091},"rollingETAS":{"crps":6.014925,"mean":24.615,"median":24,"bias":9.614999999999998,"maeMean":9.614999999999998,"maeMedian":9,"low":15,"high":38,"coverage":true,"width":23,"pitLower":0.045,"pitUpper":0.06,"empiricalMass":0.015,"logScore":4.199705077879927},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":23.816874999999996,"mean":52.135,"median":45,"bias":37.135,"maeMean":37.135,"maeMedian":30,"low":23,"high":101,"coverage":false,"width":78,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":27.00525,"mean":45.82,"median":45,"bias":30.82,"maeMean":30.82,"maeMedian":30,"low":36,"high":58,"coverage":false,"width":22,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentPoisson":{"crps":8.1089,"mean":26.16,"median":26,"bias":11.16,"maeMean":11.16,"maeMedian":11,"low":18,"high":36,"coverage":false,"width":18,"pitLower":0.005,"pitUpper":0.015,"empiricalMass":0.01,"logScore":4.605170185988091},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":5.892175000000001,"mean":24.655,"median":24,"bias":9.655000000000001,"maeMean":9.655000000000001,"maeMedian":9,"low":12,"high":38,"coverage":true,"width":26,"pitLower":0.08,"pitUpper":0.095,"empiricalMass":0.015,"logScore":4.199705077879927}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"15":0.01,"16":0.005,"17":0.005,"18":0.01,"19":0.005,"20":0.005,"22":0.02,"23":0.015,"24":0.005,"25":0.03,"27":0.01,"28":0.035,"30":0.025,"31":0.025,"32":0.02,"33":0.02,"34":0.03,"35":0.025,"36":0.025,"37":0.02,"38":0.01,"39":0.025,"40":0.03,"41":0.01,"42":0.025,"43":0.03,"44":0.02,"45":0.02,"46":0.02,"47":0.01,"48":0.01,"49":0.01,"50":0.03,"51":0.005,"52":0.02,"53":0.04,"54":0.025,"55":0.01,"56":0.01,"57":0.02,"58":0.01,"59":0.01,"60":0.005,"61":0.01,"62":0.005,"63":0.01,"64":0.015,"65":0.02,"66":0.02,"67":0.005,"68":0.015,"69":0.01,"70":0.005,"71":0.01,"72":0.005,"73":0.005,"74":0.01,"75":0.015,"76":0.01,"78":0.01,"79":0.005,"80":0.005,"81":0.005,"82":0.005,"87":0.005,"88":0.02,"90":0.005,"118":0.005,"150":0.005,"152":0.005,"155":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"11":0.015,"12":0.005,"13":0.005,"14":0.02,"15":0.015,"16":0.03,"17":0.04,"18":0.06,"19":0.07,"20":0.035,"21":0.065,"22":0.045,"23":0.06,"24":0.06,"25":0.08,"26":0.065,"27":0.04,"28":0.035,"29":0.055,"30":0.015,"31":0.035,"32":0.02,"33":0.01,"34":0.025,"35":0.025,"36":0.015,"38":0.01,"39":0.02,"42":0.005,"44":0.01,"45":0.01},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"16":0.005,"19":0.005,"20":0.015,"22":0.02,"23":0.01,"24":0.015,"25":0.025,"26":0.03,"27":0.01,"28":0.005,"29":0.02,"30":0.015,"31":0.025,"33":0.015,"34":0.03,"35":0.015,"36":0.04,"37":0.005,"38":0.06,"39":0.01,"40":0.025,"41":0.01,"42":0.015,"43":0.025,"44":0.03,"45":0.03,"46":0.02,"47":0.02,"48":0.01,"49":0.025,"50":0.005,"51":0.01,"52":0.005,"53":0.03,"54":0.015,"55":0.015,"56":0.015,"57":0.005,"58":0.01,"59":0.015,"60":0.015,"61":0.005,"63":0.005,"64":0.015,"65":0.005,"67":0.01,"68":0.005,"70":0.01,"71":0.01,"72":0.005,"73":0.03,"77":0.005,"78":0.01,"79":0.015,"80":0.005,"81":0.005,"82":0.005,"83":0.005,"84":0.005,"85":0.005,"86":0.01,"89":0.005,"90":0.015,"91":0.005,"92":0.005,"94":0.005,"96":0.005,"97":0.005,"101":0.01,"102":0.01,"104":0.005,"110":0.005,"111":0.005,"117":0.005,"121":0.005,"131":0.005,"136":0.005,"141":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"29":0.005,"30":0.01,"31":0.005,"34":0.015,"35":0.01,"36":0.015,"37":0.03,"38":0.015,"39":0.06,"40":0.055,"41":0.05,"42":0.045,"43":0.105,"44":0.06,"45":0.05,"46":0.045,"47":0.04,"48":0.06,"49":0.05,"50":0.04,"51":0.055,"52":0.035,"53":0.015,"54":0.01,"55":0.035,"56":0.015,"57":0.01,"58":0.01,"59":0.01,"60":0.005,"61":0.01,"62":0.005,"63":0.01,"65":0.005,"67":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"14":0.005,"15":0.01,"16":0.005,"17":0.02,"18":0.01,"19":0.04,"20":0.065,"21":0.045,"22":0.085,"23":0.065,"24":0.075,"25":0.05,"26":0.08,"27":0.08,"28":0.025,"29":0.055,"30":0.06,"31":0.08,"32":0.04,"33":0.01,"34":0.02,"35":0.02,"36":0.01,"37":0.015,"38":0.01,"39":0.01,"41":0.005,"45":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"7":0.005,"8":0.005,"10":0.005,"11":0.015,"12":0.02,"13":0.015,"14":0.015,"15":0.015,"16":0.03,"17":0.04,"18":0.04,"19":0.055,"20":0.07,"21":0.04,"22":0.025,"23":0.06,"24":0.09,"25":0.045,"26":0.055,"27":0.045,"28":0.03,"29":0.03,"30":0.03,"31":0.03,"32":0.025,"33":0.03,"34":0.01,"35":0.03,"36":0.02,"37":0.02,"38":0.01,"39":0.005,"40":0.01,"41":0.005,"42":0.005,"43":0.005,"44":0.005,"45":0.005,"48":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1696636800000,"validUntil":1699228800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":3,"actual":2,"trainingCount":5415,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2023","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":1.7975499999999998,"mean":5.56,"median":5,"bias":3.5599999999999996,"maeMean":3.5599999999999996,"maeMedian":3,"low":1,"high":12,"coverage":true,"width":11,"pitLower":0.1,"pitUpper":0.205,"empiricalMass":0.105,"logScore":2.2537949288246137},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.5507000000000002,"mean":2.9,"median":3,"bias":0.8999999999999999,"maeMean":0.8999999999999999,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":6,"coverage":true,"width":6,"pitLower":0.26,"pitUpper":0.455,"empiricalMass":0.195,"logScore":1.6347557204183902},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":2.330775,"mean":6.515,"median":5,"bias":4.515,"maeMean":4.515,"maeMedian":3,"low":1,"high":16,"coverage":true,"width":15,"pitLower":0.095,"pitUpper":0.16,"empiricalMass":0.065,"logScore":2.7333680090865},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":2.884925,"mean":6.245,"median":6,"bias":4.245,"maeMean":4.245,"maeMedian":4,"low":3,"high":10,"coverage":false,"width":7,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.04,"empiricalMass":0.04,"logScore":3.2188758248682006},"recentPoisson":{"crps":1.129775,"mean":4.035,"median":4,"bias":2.035,"maeMean":2.035,"maeMedian":2,"low":1,"high":8,"coverage":true,"width":7,"pitLower":0.11,"pitUpper":0.245,"empiricalMass":0.135,"logScore":2.0024805005437076},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":1.1139750000000002,"mean":4.205,"median":4,"bias":2.205,"maeMean":2.205,"maeMedian":2,"low":1,"high":9,"coverage":true,"width":8,"pitLower":0.095,"pitUpper":0.265,"empiricalMass":0.17,"logScore":1.7719568419318752}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.03,"1":0.07,"2":0.105,"3":0.155,"4":0.105,"5":0.095,"6":0.08,"7":0.105,"8":0.06,"9":0.06,"10":0.045,"11":0.035,"12":0.025,"13":0.005,"14":0.005,"16":0.005,"17":0.005,"22":0.005,"28":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.085,"1":0.175,"2":0.195,"3":0.175,"4":0.19,"5":0.09,"6":0.055,"7":0.025,"9":0.005,"10":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.02,"1":0.075,"2":0.065,"3":0.105,"4":0.105,"5":0.155,"6":0.09,"7":0.075,"8":0.05,"9":0.045,"10":0.02,"11":0.05,"12":0.03,"13":0.015,"14":0.02,"15":0.02,"16":0.015,"17":0.025,"18":0.01,"19":0.005,"21":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"2":0.04,"3":0.095,"4":0.115,"5":0.17,"6":0.14,"7":0.155,"8":0.115,"9":0.07,"10":0.06,"11":0.02,"12":0.005,"14":0.01,"15":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.03,"1":0.08,"2":0.135,"3":0.21,"4":0.13,"5":0.17,"6":0.13,"7":0.055,"8":0.04,"9":0.005,"10":0.01,"11":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.04,"1":0.055,"2":0.17,"3":0.18,"4":0.18,"5":0.12,"6":0.085,"7":0.05,"8":0.05,"9":0.04,"10":0.015,"11":0.005,"12":0.005,"13":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1696636800000,"validUntil":1699228800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5415,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2023","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.218175,"mean":0.645,"median":0,"bias":0.645,"maeMean":0.645,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.555,"empiricalMass":0.555,"logScore":0.5887871652357024},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.06362499999999999,"mean":0.305,"median":0,"bias":0.305,"maeMean":0.305,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.755,"empiricalMass":0.755,"logScore":0.28103752973311236},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.269175,"mean":0.765,"median":0,"bias":0.765,"maeMean":0.765,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.515,"empiricalMass":0.515,"logScore":0.6635883783184009},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.351225,"mean":0.865,"median":1,"bias":0.865,"maeMean":0.865,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.45,"empiricalMass":0.45,"logScore":0.7985076962177716},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.28309999999999996,"mean":0.69,"median":1,"bias":0.69,"maeMean":0.69,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.49,"empiricalMass":0.49,"logScore":0.7133498878774648},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.18055000000000004,"mean":0.52,"median":0,"bias":0.52,"maeMean":0.52,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.585,"empiricalMass":0.585,"logScore":0.5361434317502807}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.555,"1":0.315,"2":0.075,"3":0.04,"4":0.015},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.755,"1":0.185,"2":0.06},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.515,"1":0.315,"2":0.105,"3":0.04,"4":0.015,"6":0.01},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.45,"1":0.34,"2":0.15,"3":0.03,"4":0.02,"5":0.005,"6":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.49,"1":0.36,"2":0.13,"3":0.01,"4":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.585,"1":0.325,"2":0.075,"3":0.015}}},{"issuedAt":1699228800000,"validUntil":1699315200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":2,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5430,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2023","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.3802500000000001,"mean":1.31,"median":1,"bias":1.31,"maeMean":1.31,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":6,"coverage":true,"width":6,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.485,"empiricalMass":0.485,"logScore":0.7236063880446539},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.30427499999999996,"mean":0.815,"median":1,"bias":0.815,"maeMean":0.815,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.495,"empiricalMass":0.495,"logScore":0.7031975164134467},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.4408249999999999,"mean":1.275,"median":1,"bias":1.275,"maeMean":1.275,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.44,"empiricalMass":0.44,"logScore":0.8209805520698302},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.8149750000000001,"mean":1.495,"median":1,"bias":1.495,"maeMean":1.495,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.25,"empiricalMass":0.25,"logScore":1.3862943611198906},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.413775,"mean":0.925,"median":1,"bias":0.925,"maeMean":0.925,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.4,"empiricalMass":0.4,"logScore":0.916290731874155},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.268375,"mean":0.745,"median":0,"bias":0.745,"maeMean":0.745,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.525,"empiricalMass":0.525,"logScore":0.6443570163905132}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.485,"1":0.265,"2":0.075,"3":0.065,"4":0.05,"5":0.005,"6":0.015,"7":0.01,"8":0.015,"9":0.005,"12":0.005,"18":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.495,"1":0.295,"2":0.145,"3":0.035,"4":0.025,"5":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.44,"1":0.255,"2":0.16,"3":0.06,"4":0.04,"5":0.005,"7":0.02,"8":0.01,"11":0.005,"12":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.25,"1":0.285,"2":0.29,"3":0.105,"4":0.045,"5":0.015,"6":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.4,"1":0.38,"2":0.15,"3":0.055,"5":0.01,"6":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.525,"1":0.275,"2":0.15,"3":0.035,"4":0.01,"5":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1699228800000,"validUntil":1699315200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":3,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5430,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2023","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.021650000000000003,"mean":0.19,"median":0,"bias":0.19,"maeMean":0.19,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.86,"empiricalMass":0.86,"logScore":0.15082288973458366},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.0036250000000000032,"mean":0.065,"median":0,"bias":0.065,"maeMean":0.065,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.94,"empiricalMass":0.94,"logScore":0.06187540371808753},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.010399999999999993,"mean":0.12,"median":0,"bias":0.12,"maeMean":0.12,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.9,"empiricalMass":0.9,"logScore":0.10536051565782628},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.03265000000000001,"mean":0.2,"median":0,"bias":0.2,"maeMean":0.2,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.82,"empiricalMass":0.82,"logScore":0.19845093872383832},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.019625000000000004,"mean":0.145,"median":0,"bias":0.145,"maeMean":0.145,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.86,"empiricalMass":0.86,"logScore":0.15082288973458366},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.010125000000000009,"mean":0.115,"median":0,"bias":0.115,"maeMean":0.115,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.9,"empiricalMass":0.9,"logScore":0.10536051565782628}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.86,"1":0.095,"2":0.04,"3":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.94,"1":0.055,"2":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.9,"1":0.08,"2":0.02},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.82,"1":0.165,"2":0.01,"3":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.86,"1":0.135,"2":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.9,"1":0.09,"2":0.005,"3":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1699228800000,"validUntil":1699315200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5430,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2023","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.0002249999999999995,"mean":0.015,"median":0,"bias":0.015,"maeMean":0.015,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.985,"empiricalMass":0.985,"logScore":0.015113637810048184},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.0000999999999999994,"mean":0.01,"median":0,"bias":0.01,"maeMean":0.01,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.99,"empiricalMass":0.99,"logScore":0.01005033585350145},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.0000999999999999994,"mean":0.01,"median":0,"bias":0.01,"maeMean":0.01,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.99,"empiricalMass":0.99,"logScore":0.01005033585350145},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.0016000000000000042,"mean":0.04,"median":0,"bias":0.04,"maeMean":0.04,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.96,"empiricalMass":0.96,"logScore":0.040821994520255166},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.0000999999999999994,"mean":0.01,"median":0,"bias":0.01,"maeMean":0.01,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.99,"empiricalMass":0.99,"logScore":0.01005033585350145},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.00040000000000000105,"mean":0.02,"median":0,"bias":0.02,"maeMean":0.02,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.98,"empiricalMass":0.98,"logScore":0.020202707317519466}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.985,"1":0.015},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.99,"1":0.01},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.99,"1":0.01},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.96,"1":0.04},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.99,"1":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.98,"1":0.02}}},{"issuedAt":1699228800000,"validUntil":1699833600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":2,"actual":5,"trainingCount":5430,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2023","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":2.0359750000000005,"mean":10.785,"median":8,"bias":5.785,"maeMean":5.785,"maeMedian":3,"low":1,"high":31,"coverage":true,"width":30,"pitLower":0.225,"pitUpper":0.31,"empiricalMass":0.085,"logScore":2.4651040224918206},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.646925,"mean":5.705,"median":5,"bias":0.7050000000000001,"maeMean":0.7050000000000001,"maeMedian":0,"low":2,"high":10,"coverage":true,"width":8,"pitLower":0.355,"pitUpper":0.525,"empiricalMass":0.17,"logScore":1.7719568419318752},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":1.8547000000000002,"mean":9.94,"median":8,"bias":4.9399999999999995,"maeMean":4.9399999999999995,"maeMedian":3,"low":2,"high":25,"coverage":true,"width":23,"pitLower":0.23,"pitUpper":0.33,"empiricalMass":0.1,"logScore":2.3025850929940455},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":4.0082249999999995,"mean":10.655,"median":10,"bias":5.654999999999999,"maeMean":5.654999999999999,"maeMedian":5,"low":6,"high":16,"coverage":false,"width":10,"pitLower":0.005,"pitUpper":0.025,"empiricalMass":0.02,"logScore":3.912023005428146},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.654725,"mean":5.885,"median":6,"bias":0.8849999999999998,"maeMean":0.8849999999999998,"maeMedian":1,"low":2,"high":10,"coverage":true,"width":8,"pitLower":0.31,"pitUpper":0.47,"empiricalMass":0.16,"logScore":1.8325814637483102},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.9232750000000003,"mean":6.155,"median":5.5,"bias":1.1550000000000002,"maeMean":1.1550000000000002,"maeMedian":0.5,"low":1,"high":13,"coverage":true,"width":12,"pitLower":0.39,"pitUpper":0.5,"empiricalMass":0.11,"logScore":2.2072749131897207}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.02,"1":0.03,"2":0.055,"3":0.035,"4":0.085,"5":0.085,"6":0.105,"7":0.08,"8":0.065,"9":0.07,"10":0.04,"11":0.04,"12":0.02,"13":0.045,"14":0.025,"15":0.005,"16":0.02,"17":0.04,"18":0.005,"19":0.015,"20":0.015,"21":0.01,"22":0.005,"23":0.015,"24":0.005,"25":0.01,"31":0.005,"33":0.01,"34":0.005,"38":0.005,"39":0.005,"47":0.005,"49":0.005,"59":0.005,"64":0.005,"100":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.005,"1":0.025,"2":0.075,"3":0.12,"4":0.13,"5":0.17,"6":0.1,"7":0.125,"8":0.115,"9":0.045,"10":0.05,"11":0.005,"12":0.015,"13":0.015,"14":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.005,"1":0.01,"2":0.045,"3":0.07,"4":0.1,"5":0.1,"6":0.085,"7":0.08,"8":0.095,"9":0.035,"10":0.08,"11":0.025,"12":0.045,"13":0.035,"14":0.015,"15":0.01,"16":0.02,"17":0.01,"18":0.01,"19":0.01,"20":0.01,"21":0.005,"22":0.01,"23":0.01,"24":0.025,"25":0.01,"26":0.005,"27":0.005,"33":0.005,"34":0.005,"35":0.005,"38":0.005,"39":0.005,"47":0.005,"59":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"4":0.005,"5":0.02,"6":0.06,"7":0.075,"8":0.07,"9":0.105,"10":0.185,"11":0.115,"12":0.105,"13":0.08,"14":0.07,"15":0.055,"16":0.03,"17":0.01,"18":0.01,"19":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"1":0.015,"2":0.035,"3":0.125,"4":0.135,"5":0.16,"6":0.145,"7":0.115,"8":0.135,"9":0.07,"10":0.04,"11":0.015,"12":0.005,"15":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.015,"1":0.065,"2":0.09,"3":0.115,"4":0.105,"5":0.11,"6":0.065,"7":0.11,"8":0.115,"9":0.045,"10":0.035,"11":0.02,"12":0.03,"13":0.035,"14":0.025,"15":0.01,"16":0.005,"29":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1699228800000,"validUntil":1699833600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":3,"actual":1,"trainingCount":5430,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2023","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.37044999999999995,"mean":1.27,"median":1,"bias":0.27,"maeMean":0.27,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.48,"pitUpper":0.7,"empiricalMass":0.22,"logScore":1.5141277326297755},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.34635,"mean":0.59,"median":0,"bias":-0.41000000000000003,"maeMean":0.41000000000000003,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.575,"pitUpper":0.88,"empiricalMass":0.305,"logScore":1.1874435023747254},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.30725000000000013,"mean":1.3,"median":1,"bias":0.30000000000000004,"maeMean":0.30000000000000004,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.41,"pitUpper":0.695,"empiricalMass":0.285,"logScore":1.2552660987134867},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.24734999999999996,"mean":1.3,"median":1,"bias":0.30000000000000004,"maeMean":0.30000000000000004,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.28,"pitUpper":0.62,"empiricalMass":0.34,"logScore":1.0788096613719298},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.21027499999999993,"mean":0.935,"median":1,"bias":-0.06499999999999995,"maeMean":0.06499999999999995,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.385,"pitUpper":0.76,"empiricalMass":0.375,"logScore":0.9808292530117262},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.24605,"mean":0.96,"median":1,"bias":-0.040000000000000036,"maeMean":0.040000000000000036,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.43,"pitUpper":0.78,"empiricalMass":0.35,"logScore":1.0498221244986778}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.48,"1":0.22,"2":0.115,"3":0.08,"4":0.055,"5":0.015,"6":0.01,"7":0.015,"11":0.005,"13":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.575,"1":0.305,"2":0.085,"3":0.025,"4":0.01},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.41,"1":0.285,"2":0.13,"3":0.08,"4":0.025,"5":0.035,"6":0.02,"7":0.005,"8":0.005,"9":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.28,"1":0.34,"2":0.23,"3":0.105,"4":0.04,"5":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.385,"1":0.375,"2":0.175,"3":0.05,"4":0.015},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.43,"1":0.35,"2":0.12,"3":0.05,"4":0.035,"5":0.01,"6":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1699228800000,"validUntil":1699833600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":4,"actual":1,"trainingCount":5430,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2023","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.7751250000000001,"mean":0.155,"median":0,"bias":-0.845,"maeMean":0.845,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0.88,"pitUpper":0.975,"empiricalMass":0.095,"logScore":2.353878387381596},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.931225,"mean":0.035,"median":0,"bias":-0.965,"maeMean":0.965,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":false,"width":0,"pitLower":0.965,"pitUpper":1,"empiricalMass":0.035,"logScore":3.3524072174927233},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.7922250000000001,"mean":0.125,"median":0,"bias":-0.875,"maeMean":0.875,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0.89,"pitUpper":0.99,"empiricalMass":0.1,"logScore":2.3025850929940455},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.748225,"mean":0.135,"median":0,"bias":-0.865,"maeMean":0.865,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0.865,"pitUpper":1,"empiricalMass":0.135,"logScore":2.0024805005437076},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.7569,"mean":0.13,"median":0,"bias":-0.87,"maeMean":0.87,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0.87,"pitUpper":1,"empiricalMass":0.13,"logScore":2.0402208285265546},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.819025,"mean":0.095,"median":0,"bias":-0.905,"maeMean":0.905,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0.905,"pitUpper":1,"empiricalMass":0.095,"logScore":2.353878387381596}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.88,"1":0.095,"2":0.015,"3":0.01},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.965,"1":0.035},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.89,"1":0.1,"2":0.005,"3":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.865,"1":0.135},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.87,"1":0.13},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.905,"1":0.095}}},{"issuedAt":1699228800000,"validUntil":1701820800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":2,"actual":41,"trainingCount":5430,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2023","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":5.171800000000001,"mean":50.07,"median":46.5,"bias":9.07,"maeMean":9.07,"maeMedian":5.5,"low":23,"high":90,"coverage":true,"width":67,"pitLower":0.37,"pitUpper":0.395,"empiricalMass":0.025,"logScore":3.6888794541139363},"rollingETAS":{"crps":11.421625,"mean":25.915,"median":25,"bias":-15.085,"maeMean":15.085,"maeMedian":16,"low":15,"high":38,"coverage":false,"width":23,"pitLower":0.965,"pitUpper":0.975,"empiricalMass":0.01,"logScore":4.605170185988091},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":4.12335,"mean":47.32,"median":42,"bias":6.32,"maeMean":6.32,"maeMedian":1,"low":22,"high":86,"coverage":true,"width":64,"pitLower":0.465,"pitUpper":0.495,"empiricalMass":0.03,"logScore":3.506557897319982},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":2.3804250000000002,"mean":45.055,"median":45,"bias":4.055,"maeMean":4.055,"maeMedian":4,"low":34,"high":55,"coverage":true,"width":21,"pitLower":0.22,"pitUpper":0.285,"empiricalMass":0.065,"logScore":2.7333680090865},"recentPoisson":{"crps":14.061275000000002,"mean":23.935,"median":23,"bias":-17.065,"maeMean":17.065,"maeMedian":18,"low":16,"high":33,"coverage":false,"width":17,"pitLower":1,"pitUpper":1,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":11.046375000000001,"mean":25.245,"median":25,"bias":-15.754999999999999,"maeMean":15.754999999999999,"maeMedian":16,"low":10,"high":41,"coverage":true,"width":31,"pitLower":0.945,"pitUpper":0.955,"empiricalMass":0.01,"logScore":4.605170185988091}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"13":0.005,"14":0.005,"18":0.01,"19":0.01,"20":0.01,"21":0.005,"23":0.01,"24":0.01,"25":0.01,"26":0.01,"27":0.02,"28":0.015,"29":0.02,"30":0.03,"31":0.025,"32":0.015,"33":0.01,"34":0.005,"35":0.02,"36":0.045,"37":0.015,"38":0.025,"39":0.025,"40":0.015,"41":0.025,"42":0.015,"43":0.025,"44":0.015,"45":0.015,"46":0.035,"47":0.035,"48":0.015,"49":0.025,"50":0.02,"51":0.015,"52":0.005,"53":0.015,"54":0.005,"55":0.005,"56":0.025,"57":0.02,"58":0.02,"59":0.025,"60":0.025,"61":0.01,"62":0.01,"63":0.02,"64":0.01,"65":0.01,"66":0.01,"67":0.01,"68":0.015,"69":0.02,"70":0.005,"71":0.01,"73":0.01,"75":0.005,"77":0.005,"78":0.01,"86":0.005,"87":0.005,"88":0.015,"89":0.005,"90":0.005,"92":0.01,"94":0.005,"95":0.005,"106":0.005,"110":0.005,"116":0.005,"120":0.005,"132":0.005,"135":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"9":0.005,"12":0.005,"13":0.01,"14":0.01,"15":0.02,"16":0.03,"17":0.015,"18":0.03,"19":0.045,"20":0.03,"21":0.045,"22":0.065,"23":0.07,"24":0.08,"25":0.06,"26":0.075,"27":0.065,"28":0.04,"29":0.045,"30":0.035,"31":0.035,"32":0.015,"33":0.02,"34":0.02,"35":0.03,"36":0.015,"37":0.01,"38":0.025,"39":0.01,"40":0.005,"41":0.01,"42":0.005,"43":0.005,"44":0.005,"45":0.005,"48":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"13":0.01,"14":0.005,"17":0.01,"19":0.005,"20":0.005,"21":0.005,"22":0.015,"23":0.01,"24":0.025,"25":0.01,"26":0.015,"27":0.03,"28":0.02,"29":0.015,"30":0.015,"31":0.04,"32":0.02,"33":0.035,"34":0.03,"35":0.015,"36":0.02,"37":0.03,"38":0.02,"39":0.015,"40":0.045,"41":0.03,"42":0.02,"43":0.045,"44":0.015,"45":0.015,"46":0.02,"47":0.01,"48":0.005,"50":0.025,"51":0.045,"52":0.02,"53":0.02,"54":0.015,"55":0.005,"56":0.005,"57":0.015,"58":0.015,"59":0.01,"60":0.005,"61":0.01,"62":0.005,"63":0.01,"64":0.01,"65":0.005,"66":0.005,"67":0.02,"68":0.005,"69":0.005,"72":0.015,"73":0.005,"75":0.01,"76":0.005,"77":0.005,"79":0.005,"82":0.005,"83":0.01,"86":0.01,"90":0.005,"92":0.005,"99":0.005,"101":0.005,"104":0.005,"105":0.005,"115":0.005,"137":0.005,"188":0.005,"193":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"28":0.005,"30":0.005,"31":0.005,"32":0.005,"33":0.015,"34":0.015,"36":0.035,"37":0.015,"38":0.025,"39":0.04,"40":0.055,"41":0.065,"42":0.05,"43":0.07,"44":0.08,"45":0.08,"46":0.065,"47":0.015,"48":0.045,"49":0.065,"50":0.07,"51":0.02,"52":0.035,"53":0.045,"54":0.015,"55":0.01,"56":0.005,"57":0.015,"58":0.015,"59":0.01,"61":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"10":0.005,"12":0.005,"13":0.005,"14":0.015,"15":0.015,"16":0.015,"17":0.025,"18":0.04,"19":0.05,"20":0.115,"21":0.08,"22":0.09,"23":0.045,"24":0.08,"25":0.055,"26":0.08,"27":0.04,"28":0.025,"29":0.065,"30":0.02,"31":0.035,"32":0.015,"33":0.03,"34":0.02,"35":0.015,"39":0.005,"40":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"5":0.01,"6":0.005,"9":0.02,"10":0.02,"11":0.015,"12":0.02,"13":0.005,"14":0.02,"15":0.025,"16":0.025,"17":0.04,"18":0.015,"19":0.05,"20":0.055,"21":0.065,"22":0.03,"23":0.02,"24":0.045,"25":0.035,"26":0.045,"27":0.055,"28":0.04,"29":0.025,"30":0.035,"31":0.045,"32":0.005,"33":0.05,"34":0.025,"35":0.015,"36":0.025,"37":0.03,"39":0.02,"40":0.01,"41":0.01,"42":0.005,"43":0.01,"44":0.005,"45":0.005,"47":0.005,"49":0.005,"51":0.005,"54":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1699228800000,"validUntil":1701820800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":3,"actual":7,"trainingCount":5430,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2023","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":1.2216,"mean":6.16,"median":5,"bias":-0.8399999999999999,"maeMean":0.8399999999999999,"maeMedian":2,"low":1,"high":15,"coverage":true,"width":14,"pitLower":0.6,"pitUpper":0.7,"empiricalMass":0.1,"logScore":2.3025850929940455},"rollingETAS":{"crps":2.772825,"mean":3.185,"median":3,"bias":-3.815,"maeMean":3.815,"maeMedian":4,"low":0,"high":7,"coverage":true,"width":7,"pitLower":0.94,"pitUpper":0.97,"empiricalMass":0.03,"logScore":3.506557897319982},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":1.3011249999999999,"mean":5.855,"median":5,"bias":-1.1449999999999996,"maeMean":1.1449999999999996,"maeMedian":2,"low":1,"high":13,"coverage":true,"width":12,"pitLower":0.71,"pitUpper":0.775,"empiricalMass":0.065,"logScore":2.7333680090865},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.9010249999999997,"mean":5.585,"median":6,"bias":-1.415,"maeMean":1.415,"maeMedian":1,"low":2,"high":9,"coverage":true,"width":7,"pitLower":0.68,"pitUpper":0.835,"empiricalMass":0.155,"logScore":1.8643301620628905},"recentPoisson":{"crps":2.2931749999999997,"mean":3.735,"median":4,"bias":-3.265,"maeMean":3.265,"maeMedian":3,"low":1,"high":7,"coverage":true,"width":6,"pitLower":0.9,"pitUpper":0.96,"empiricalMass":0.06,"logScore":2.8134107167600364},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":1.748325,"mean":4.505,"median":4,"bias":-2.495,"maeMean":2.495,"maeMedian":3,"low":1,"high":10,"coverage":true,"width":9,"pitLower":0.77,"pitUpper":0.86,"empiricalMass":0.09,"logScore":2.4079456086518722}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.015,"1":0.08,"2":0.09,"3":0.13,"4":0.12,"5":0.105,"6":0.06,"7":0.1,"8":0.055,"9":0.055,"10":0.045,"11":0.035,"12":0.02,"13":0.025,"14":0.01,"15":0.02,"16":0.01,"19":0.01,"20":0.005,"21":0.005,"23":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.075,"1":0.12,"2":0.26,"3":0.145,"4":0.145,"5":0.105,"6":0.09,"7":0.03,"8":0.02,"9":0.005,"10":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.03,"1":0.05,"2":0.095,"3":0.1,"4":0.165,"5":0.15,"6":0.12,"7":0.065,"8":0.03,"9":0.05,"10":0.025,"11":0.04,"12":0.025,"13":0.01,"14":0.005,"15":0.005,"16":0.005,"17":0.01,"21":0.005,"22":0.005,"27":0.005,"35":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.005,"1":0.02,"2":0.05,"3":0.125,"4":0.13,"5":0.16,"6":0.19,"7":0.155,"8":0.055,"9":0.06,"10":0.02,"11":0.01,"12":0.005,"13":0.015},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.015,"1":0.115,"2":0.13,"3":0.23,"4":0.2,"5":0.135,"6":0.075,"7":0.06,"8":0.035,"9":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.04,"1":0.105,"2":0.115,"3":0.2,"4":0.13,"5":0.095,"6":0.085,"7":0.09,"8":0.055,"9":0.025,"10":0.015,"12":0.015,"13":0.01,"15":0.01,"16":0.01}}},{"issuedAt":1699228800000,"validUntil":1701820800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":4,"actual":2,"trainingCount":5430,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2023","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":1.004075,"mean":0.695,"median":0,"bias":-1.3050000000000002,"maeMean":1.3050000000000002,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.845,"pitUpper":0.94,"empiricalMass":0.095,"logScore":2.353878387381596},"rollingETAS":{"crps":1.39275,"mean":0.36,"median":0,"bias":-1.6400000000000001,"maeMean":1.6400000000000001,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.935,"pitUpper":0.99,"empiricalMass":0.055,"logScore":2.900422093749666},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":1.093225,"mean":0.625,"median":0,"bias":-1.375,"maeMean":1.375,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.875,"pitUpper":0.95,"empiricalMass":0.075,"logScore":2.5902671654458267},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.86585,"mean":0.77,"median":1,"bias":-1.23,"maeMean":1.23,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.805,"pitUpper":0.96,"empiricalMass":0.155,"logScore":1.8643301620628905},"recentPoisson":{"crps":1.187775,"mean":0.525,"median":0,"bias":-1.475,"maeMean":1.475,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.885,"pitUpper":0.965,"empiricalMass":0.08,"logScore":2.5257286443082556},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":1.213325,"mean":0.475,"median":0,"bias":-1.525,"maeMean":1.525,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.9,"pitUpper":0.99,"empiricalMass":0.09,"logScore":2.4079456086518722}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.535,"1":0.31,"2":0.095,"3":0.045,"4":0.015},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.72,"1":0.215,"2":0.055,"3":0.005,"4":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.57,"1":0.305,"2":0.075,"3":0.04,"5":0.01},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.465,"1":0.34,"2":0.155,"3":0.04},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.635,"1":0.25,"2":0.08,"3":0.025,"4":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.635,"1":0.265,"2":0.09,"3":0.01}}},{"issuedAt":1701820800000,"validUntil":1701907200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":2,"actual":3,"trainingCount":5471,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2023","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.9189,"mean":4.91,"median":4,"bias":1.9100000000000001,"maeMean":1.9100000000000001,"maeMedian":1,"low":1,"high":11,"coverage":true,"width":10,"pitLower":0.31,"pitUpper":0.44,"empiricalMass":0.13,"logScore":2.0402208285265546},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.990575,"mean":1.685,"median":1,"bias":-1.315,"maeMean":1.315,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.775,"pitUpper":0.865,"empiricalMass":0.09,"logScore":2.4079456086518722},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.7794249999999998,"mean":4.715,"median":4,"bias":1.7149999999999999,"maeMean":1.7149999999999999,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":12,"coverage":true,"width":12,"pitLower":0.325,"pitUpper":0.47,"empiricalMass":0.145,"logScore":1.9310215365615626},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":1.0420250000000002,"mean":1.455,"median":1,"bias":-1.545,"maeMean":1.545,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.81,"pitUpper":0.945,"empiricalMass":0.135,"logScore":2.0024805005437076},"recentPoisson":{"crps":1.8518,"mean":0.74,"median":1,"bias":-2.26,"maeMean":2.26,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":false,"width":2,"pitLower":0.98,"pitUpper":1,"empiricalMass":0.02,"logScore":3.912023005428146},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":1.86635,"mean":0.77,"median":0,"bias":-2.23,"maeMean":2.23,"maeMedian":3,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.9,"pitUpper":0.95,"empiricalMass":0.05,"logScore":2.995732273553991}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.03,"1":0.1,"2":0.18,"3":0.13,"4":0.12,"5":0.1,"6":0.05,"7":0.06,"8":0.07,"9":0.055,"10":0.04,"11":0.025,"12":0.005,"13":0.01,"14":0.01,"16":0.005,"19":0.005,"25":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.215,"1":0.35,"2":0.21,"3":0.09,"4":0.06,"5":0.05,"6":0.02,"7":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.07,"1":0.095,"2":0.16,"3":0.145,"4":0.145,"5":0.105,"6":0.05,"7":0.055,"8":0.04,"9":0.025,"10":0.02,"11":0.035,"12":0.01,"13":0.005,"14":0.005,"15":0.005,"19":0.01,"20":0.005,"21":0.005,"22":0.01},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.24,"1":0.33,"2":0.24,"3":0.135,"4":0.035,"5":0.02},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.45,"1":0.38,"2":0.15,"3":0.02},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.61,"1":0.215,"2":0.075,"3":0.05,"4":0.025,"5":0.005,"6":0.01,"7":0.01}}},{"issuedAt":1701820800000,"validUntil":1701907200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":3,"actual":1,"trainingCount":5471,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2023","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.44615,"mean":0.58,"median":0,"bias":-0.42000000000000004,"maeMean":0.42000000000000004,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.65,"pitUpper":0.86,"empiricalMass":0.21,"logScore":1.5606477482646683},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.6166250000000001,"mean":0.235,"median":0,"bias":-0.765,"maeMean":0.765,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0.785,"pitUpper":0.98,"empiricalMass":0.195,"logScore":1.6347557204183902},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.41770000000000007,"mean":0.54,"median":0,"bias":-0.45999999999999996,"maeMean":0.45999999999999996,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.635,"pitUpper":0.885,"empiricalMass":0.25,"logScore":1.3862943611198906},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.6893,"mean":0.19,"median":0,"bias":-0.81,"maeMean":0.81,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0.83,"pitUpper":0.98,"empiricalMass":0.15,"logScore":1.8971199848858813},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.810025,"mean":0.105,"median":0,"bias":-0.895,"maeMean":0.895,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0.9,"pitUpper":0.995,"empiricalMass":0.095,"logScore":2.353878387381596},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.7762499999999999,"mean":0.18,"median":0,"bias":-0.8200000000000001,"maeMean":0.8200000000000001,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0.88,"pitUpper":0.96,"empiricalMass":0.08,"logScore":2.5257286443082556}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.65,"1":0.21,"2":0.08,"3":0.04,"4":0.015,"6":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.785,"1":0.195,"2":0.02},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.635,"1":0.25,"2":0.085,"3":0.015,"4":0.005,"5":0.005,"6":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.83,"1":0.15,"2":0.02},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.9,"1":0.095,"2":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.88,"1":0.08,"2":0.025,"3":0.01,"4":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1701820800000,"validUntil":1701907200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5471,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2023","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.004250000000000004,"mean":0.07,"median":0,"bias":0.07,"maeMean":0.07,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.935,"empiricalMass":0.935,"logScore":0.06720874969344999},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.0012500000000000011,"mean":0.04,"median":0,"bias":0.04,"maeMean":0.04,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.965,"empiricalMass":0.965,"logScore":0.03562717764315116},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.003025,"mean":0.055,"median":0,"bias":0.055,"maeMean":0.055,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.945,"empiricalMass":0.945,"logScore":0.05657035148839435},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.0002249999999999995,"mean":0.015,"median":0,"bias":0.015,"maeMean":0.015,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.985,"empiricalMass":0.985,"logScore":0.015113637810048184},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.0012250000000000039,"mean":0.035,"median":0,"bias":0.035,"maeMean":0.035,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.965,"empiricalMass":0.965,"logScore":0.03562717764315116},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.00040000000000000105,"mean":0.02,"median":0,"bias":0.02,"maeMean":0.02,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.98,"empiricalMass":0.98,"logScore":0.020202707317519466}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.935,"1":0.06,"2":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.965,"1":0.03,"2":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.945,"1":0.055},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.985,"1":0.015},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.965,"1":0.035},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.98,"1":0.02}}},{"issuedAt":1701820800000,"validUntil":1702425600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":2,"actual":16,"trainingCount":5471,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2023","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":4.276325,"mean":25.975,"median":22,"bias":9.975000000000001,"maeMean":9.975000000000001,"maeMedian":6,"low":10,"high":50,"coverage":true,"width":40,"pitLower":0.23,"pitUpper":0.27,"empiricalMass":0.04,"logScore":3.2188758248682006},"rollingETAS":{"crps":6.0283999999999995,"mean":8.08,"median":8,"bias":-7.92,"maeMean":7.92,"maeMedian":8,"low":3,"high":15,"coverage":false,"width":12,"pitLower":0.955,"pitUpper":0.97,"empiricalMass":0.015,"logScore":4.199705077879927},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":2.8338,"mean":21.68,"median":20,"bias":5.68,"maeMean":5.68,"maeMedian":4,"low":9,"high":42,"coverage":true,"width":33,"pitLower":0.33,"pitUpper":0.38,"empiricalMass":0.05,"logScore":2.995732273553991},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":3.913375,"mean":10.485,"median":10,"bias":-5.515000000000001,"maeMean":5.515000000000001,"maeMedian":6,"low":5,"high":16,"coverage":true,"width":11,"pitLower":0.92,"pitUpper":0.965,"empiricalMass":0.045,"logScore":3.101092789211817},"recentPoisson":{"crps":9.022525,"mean":5.785,"median":6,"bias":-10.215,"maeMean":10.215,"maeMedian":10,"low":2,"high":10,"coverage":false,"width":8,"pitLower":1,"pitUpper":1,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":8.13,"mean":5.83,"median":5,"bias":-10.17,"maeMean":10.17,"maeMedian":11,"low":0,"high":13,"coverage":false,"width":13,"pitLower":0.99,"pitUpper":0.99,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"4":0.005,"6":0.005,"7":0.01,"9":0.015,"10":0.02,"11":0.02,"12":0.045,"13":0.03,"14":0.04,"15":0.04,"16":0.04,"17":0.03,"18":0.045,"19":0.055,"20":0.035,"21":0.04,"22":0.045,"23":0.025,"24":0.045,"25":0.025,"26":0.025,"27":0.02,"28":0.04,"29":0.01,"30":0.025,"31":0.02,"32":0.015,"33":0.005,"34":0.015,"35":0.025,"38":0.01,"39":0.025,"40":0.02,"41":0.005,"42":0.005,"43":0.005,"44":0.025,"45":0.005,"46":0.01,"47":0.005,"48":0.01,"49":0.005,"50":0.005,"56":0.005,"58":0.005,"61":0.005,"62":0.01,"65":0.01,"90":0.005,"96":0.005,"108":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"1":0.005,"2":0.03,"3":0.06,"4":0.06,"5":0.095,"6":0.105,"7":0.12,"8":0.105,"9":0.12,"10":0.095,"11":0.05,"12":0.045,"13":0.025,"14":0.015,"15":0.025,"16":0.015,"17":0.015,"18":0.005,"19":0.005,"20":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"4":0.005,"5":0.005,"7":0.015,"8":0.015,"9":0.03,"10":0.035,"11":0.04,"12":0.05,"13":0.06,"14":0.045,"15":0.03,"16":0.05,"17":0.05,"18":0.025,"19":0.025,"20":0.045,"21":0.055,"22":0.025,"23":0.045,"24":0.055,"25":0.025,"26":0.025,"27":0.02,"28":0.015,"29":0.03,"30":0.01,"31":0.005,"32":0.01,"33":0.015,"34":0.005,"35":0.015,"36":0.015,"37":0.01,"38":0.015,"39":0.01,"41":0.005,"42":0.015,"43":0.005,"46":0.005,"47":0.01,"49":0.005,"51":0.005,"53":0.005,"56":0.005,"61":0.005,"63":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"4":0.015,"5":0.035,"6":0.03,"7":0.09,"8":0.11,"9":0.145,"10":0.135,"11":0.095,"12":0.105,"13":0.055,"14":0.07,"15":0.035,"16":0.045,"17":0.01,"18":0.01,"19":0.005,"20":0.005,"23":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"1":0.01,"2":0.045,"3":0.08,"4":0.16,"5":0.145,"6":0.22,"7":0.165,"8":0.08,"9":0.035,"10":0.02,"11":0.03,"12":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.05,"1":0.08,"2":0.095,"3":0.11,"4":0.105,"5":0.11,"6":0.065,"7":0.09,"8":0.05,"9":0.05,"10":0.07,"11":0.05,"12":0.01,"13":0.025,"14":0.02,"15":0.01,"21":0.005,"32":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1701820800000,"validUntil":1702425600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":3,"actual":2,"trainingCount":5471,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2023","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.6454250000000001,"mean":3.305,"median":3,"bias":1.3050000000000002,"maeMean":1.3050000000000002,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":8,"coverage":true,"width":8,"pitLower":0.27,"pitUpper":0.46,"empiricalMass":0.19,"logScore":1.6607312068216509},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.8085749999999999,"mean":0.895,"median":1,"bias":-1.105,"maeMean":1.105,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.775,"pitUpper":0.935,"empiricalMass":0.16,"logScore":1.8325814637483102},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.47892500000000005,"mean":2.555,"median":2,"bias":0.5550000000000002,"maeMean":0.5550000000000002,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":7,"coverage":true,"width":7,"pitLower":0.4,"pitUpper":0.59,"empiricalMass":0.19,"logScore":1.6607312068216509},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.382475,"mean":1.465,"median":1,"bias":-0.5349999999999999,"maeMean":0.5349999999999999,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.55,"pitUpper":0.82,"empiricalMass":0.27,"logScore":1.3093333199837622},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.81335,"mean":0.83,"median":1,"bias":-1.17,"maeMean":1.17,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.815,"pitUpper":0.97,"empiricalMass":0.155,"logScore":1.8643301620628905},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.8968999999999999,"mean":0.86,"median":0,"bias":-1.1400000000000001,"maeMean":1.1400000000000001,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.78,"pitUpper":0.895,"empiricalMass":0.115,"logScore":2.162823150618887}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.095,"1":0.175,"2":0.19,"3":0.145,"4":0.135,"5":0.09,"6":0.065,"7":0.03,"8":0.045,"10":0.01,"11":0.005,"13":0.01,"16":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.45,"1":0.325,"2":0.16,"3":0.035,"4":0.015,"5":0.005,"6":0.01},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.165,"1":0.235,"2":0.19,"3":0.145,"4":0.07,"5":0.095,"6":0.045,"7":0.02,"8":0.01,"9":0.005,"10":0.015,"13":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.215,"1":0.335,"2":0.27,"3":0.145,"4":0.025,"5":0.005,"6":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.385,"1":0.43,"2":0.155,"3":0.03},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.525,"1":0.255,"2":0.115,"3":0.065,"4":0.025,"5":0.01,"6":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1701820800000,"validUntil":1702425600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5471,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2023","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.125525,"mean":0.465,"median":0,"bias":0.465,"maeMean":0.465,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.66,"empiricalMass":0.66,"logScore":0.4155154439616658},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.011249999999999996,"mean":0.12,"median":0,"bias":0.12,"maeMean":0.12,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.895,"empiricalMass":0.895,"logScore":0.11093156070728166},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.06307499999999999,"mean":0.305,"median":0,"bias":0.305,"maeMean":0.305,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.755,"empiricalMass":0.755,"logScore":0.28103752973311236},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.02252499999999999,"mean":0.155,"median":0,"bias":0.155,"maeMean":0.155,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.85,"empiricalMass":0.85,"logScore":0.16251892949777494},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.01112500000000001,"mean":0.115,"median":0,"bias":0.115,"maeMean":0.115,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.895,"empiricalMass":0.895,"logScore":0.11093156070728166},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.0043249999999999955,"mean":0.075,"median":0,"bias":0.075,"maeMean":0.075,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.935,"empiricalMass":0.935,"logScore":0.06720874969344999}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.66,"1":0.245,"2":0.065,"3":0.03},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.895,"1":0.09,"2":0.015},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.755,"1":0.19,"2":0.05,"3":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.85,"1":0.145,"2":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.895,"1":0.095,"2":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.935,"1":0.055,"2":0.01}}},{"issuedAt":1701820800000,"validUntil":1704412800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":2,"actual":61,"trainingCount":5471,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2023","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":7.742425000000001,"mean":76.465,"median":70,"bias":15.465000000000003,"maeMean":15.465000000000003,"maeMedian":9,"low":39,"high":122,"coverage":true,"width":83,"pitLower":0.275,"pitUpper":0.285,"empiricalMass":0.01,"logScore":4.605170185988091},"rollingETAS":{"crps":28.496024999999996,"mean":28.895,"median":29,"bias":-32.105000000000004,"maeMean":32.105000000000004,"maeMedian":32,"low":19,"high":40,"coverage":false,"width":21,"pitLower":1,"pitUpper":1,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":6.666549999999999,"mean":72.65,"median":68,"bias":11.650000000000006,"maeMean":11.650000000000006,"maeMedian":7,"low":37,"high":118,"coverage":true,"width":81,"pitLower":0.375,"pitUpper":0.39,"empiricalMass":0.015,"logScore":4.199705077879927},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":12.163400000000001,"mean":45.22,"median":45,"bias":-15.780000000000001,"maeMean":15.780000000000001,"maeMedian":16,"low":35,"high":56,"coverage":false,"width":21,"pitLower":0.99,"pitUpper":0.995,"empiricalMass":0.005,"logScore":5.298317366548036},"recentPoisson":{"crps":34.112249999999996,"mean":24.24,"median":24,"bias":-36.760000000000005,"maeMean":36.760000000000005,"maeMedian":37,"low":16,"high":33,"coverage":false,"width":17,"pitLower":1,"pitUpper":1,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":30.27585,"mean":25.31,"median":24,"bias":-35.69,"maeMean":35.69,"maeMedian":37,"low":11,"high":45,"coverage":false,"width":34,"pitLower":1,"pitUpper":1,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"28":0.005,"31":0.005,"33":0.01,"34":0.005,"36":0.01,"38":0.005,"39":0.015,"40":0.01,"43":0.01,"44":0.02,"45":0.01,"46":0.01,"47":0.015,"48":0.005,"50":0.01,"51":0.01,"52":0.01,"53":0.02,"54":0.005,"56":0.015,"57":0.03,"58":0.01,"59":0.015,"60":0.015,"61":0.01,"62":0.015,"63":0.02,"64":0.02,"65":0.01,"66":0.025,"67":0.045,"68":0.025,"69":0.03,"70":0.03,"71":0.015,"72":0.015,"73":0.005,"74":0.02,"75":0.02,"76":0.02,"77":0.01,"78":0.015,"79":0.01,"80":0.025,"81":0.01,"82":0.005,"83":0.01,"84":0.005,"85":0.005,"86":0.02,"87":0.005,"88":0.01,"89":0.02,"90":0.005,"91":0.015,"93":0.005,"96":0.005,"97":0.02,"98":0.025,"100":0.02,"101":0.005,"103":0.005,"104":0.02,"105":0.005,"106":0.01,"107":0.01,"108":0.005,"111":0.005,"112":0.005,"115":0.01,"116":0.005,"119":0.005,"120":0.01,"122":0.01,"127":0.005,"128":0.005,"135":0.005,"152":0.005,"164":0.005,"166":0.005,"174":0.005,"184":0.005,"205":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"12":0.005,"14":0.005,"15":0.005,"17":0.005,"18":0.015,"19":0.015,"20":0.025,"21":0.035,"22":0.06,"23":0.07,"24":0.04,"25":0.045,"26":0.04,"27":0.05,"28":0.035,"29":0.095,"30":0.075,"31":0.055,"32":0.07,"33":0.045,"34":0.03,"35":0.035,"36":0.04,"37":0.015,"38":0.01,"39":0.015,"40":0.015,"41":0.01,"42":0.015,"43":0.005,"44":0.005,"46":0.005,"47":0.005,"50":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"27":0.005,"33":0.005,"35":0.02,"36":0.01,"37":0.02,"38":0.015,"39":0.005,"40":0.01,"41":0.01,"43":0.005,"44":0.005,"45":0.02,"47":0.02,"49":0.015,"50":0.03,"51":0.01,"52":0.015,"53":0.01,"54":0.015,"55":0.035,"56":0.01,"57":0.015,"58":0.03,"59":0.015,"60":0.025,"61":0.015,"62":0.01,"63":0.02,"64":0.01,"65":0.02,"66":0.015,"67":0.015,"68":0.025,"69":0.01,"70":0.035,"71":0.005,"73":0.025,"74":0.02,"75":0.015,"76":0.005,"77":0.015,"78":0.01,"79":0.02,"80":0.015,"81":0.02,"82":0.005,"83":0.015,"84":0.005,"86":0.025,"87":0.005,"88":0.02,"89":0.01,"90":0.005,"91":0.005,"92":0.005,"93":0.005,"95":0.01,"96":0.005,"97":0.02,"99":0.01,"100":0.01,"101":0.005,"102":0.005,"103":0.01,"105":0.005,"107":0.005,"108":0.01,"109":0.005,"110":0.005,"111":0.01,"113":0.005,"114":0.005,"115":0.01,"116":0.005,"118":0.01,"119":0.005,"121":0.005,"138":0.005,"142":0.005,"144":0.005,"149":0.005,"151":0.005,"153":0.005,"156":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"28":0.005,"31":0.01,"32":0.015,"33":0.015,"35":0.005,"36":0.03,"37":0.02,"38":0.04,"39":0.065,"40":0.03,"41":0.035,"42":0.07,"43":0.07,"44":0.065,"45":0.065,"46":0.045,"47":0.07,"48":0.055,"49":0.035,"50":0.05,"51":0.05,"52":0.04,"53":0.015,"54":0.015,"55":0.015,"56":0.02,"58":0.015,"59":0.015,"60":0.01,"61":0.005,"64":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"13":0.005,"14":0.015,"15":0.025,"16":0.005,"17":0.02,"18":0.035,"19":0.045,"20":0.055,"21":0.065,"22":0.08,"23":0.1,"24":0.09,"25":0.08,"26":0.09,"27":0.07,"28":0.05,"29":0.065,"30":0.02,"31":0.005,"32":0.02,"33":0.02,"34":0.005,"35":0.02,"37":0.01,"38":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"5":0.005,"8":0.005,"9":0.025,"10":0.01,"11":0.02,"12":0.02,"13":0.02,"14":0.01,"15":0.03,"16":0.01,"17":0.04,"18":0.035,"19":0.06,"20":0.06,"21":0.055,"22":0.04,"23":0.04,"24":0.04,"25":0.025,"26":0.03,"27":0.03,"28":0.045,"29":0.04,"30":0.04,"31":0.045,"32":0.04,"33":0.025,"34":0.01,"35":0.005,"36":0.01,"37":0.015,"38":0.005,"39":0.015,"40":0.01,"41":0.01,"42":0.005,"44":0.015,"45":0.005,"46":0.015,"47":0.01,"48":0.005,"50":0.005,"51":0.005,"53":0.005,"54":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1701820800000,"validUntil":1704412800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":3,"actual":9,"trainingCount":5471,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2023","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":1.1226500000000001,"mean":9.3,"median":8.5,"bias":0.3000000000000007,"maeMean":0.3000000000000007,"maeMedian":0.5,"low":3,"high":19,"coverage":true,"width":16,"pitLower":0.5,"pitUpper":0.59,"empiricalMass":0.09,"logScore":2.4079456086518722},"rollingETAS":{"crps":4.79805,"mean":3.19,"median":3,"bias":-5.8100000000000005,"maeMean":5.8100000000000005,"maeMedian":6,"low":0,"high":7,"coverage":false,"width":7,"pitLower":0.985,"pitUpper":0.995,"empiricalMass":0.01,"logScore":4.605170185988091},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":1.1587749999999999,"mean":8.735,"median":8,"bias":-0.26500000000000057,"maeMean":0.26500000000000057,"maeMedian":1,"low":2,"high":17,"coverage":true,"width":15,"pitLower":0.565,"pitUpper":0.65,"empiricalMass":0.085,"logScore":2.4651040224918206},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":2.156375,"mean":5.795,"median":5,"bias":-3.205,"maeMean":3.205,"maeMedian":4,"low":2,"high":10,"coverage":true,"width":8,"pitLower":0.875,"pitUpper":0.93,"empiricalMass":0.055,"logScore":2.900422093749666},"recentPoisson":{"crps":3.8797999999999995,"mean":4.08,"median":4,"bias":-4.92,"maeMean":4.92,"maeMedian":5,"low":1,"high":7,"coverage":false,"width":6,"pitLower":0.975,"pitUpper":0.98,"empiricalMass":0.005,"logScore":5.298317366548036},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":3.819325,"mean":3.855,"median":3,"bias":-5.145,"maeMean":5.145,"maeMedian":6,"low":0,"high":9,"coverage":true,"width":9,"pitLower":0.925,"pitUpper":0.95,"empiricalMass":0.025,"logScore":3.6888794541139363}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.005,"1":0.01,"2":0.025,"3":0.065,"4":0.065,"5":0.085,"6":0.075,"7":0.085,"8":0.085,"9":0.09,"10":0.08,"11":0.08,"12":0.045,"13":0.015,"14":0.045,"15":0.025,"16":0.005,"17":0.02,"18":0.03,"19":0.025,"20":0.005,"21":0.005,"22":0.005,"23":0.01,"25":0.005,"28":0.005,"32":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.05,"1":0.125,"2":0.21,"3":0.235,"4":0.16,"5":0.12,"6":0.045,"7":0.03,"8":0.01,"9":0.01,"10":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"1":0.02,"2":0.03,"3":0.06,"4":0.06,"5":0.095,"6":0.095,"7":0.1,"8":0.105,"9":0.085,"10":0.05,"11":0.035,"12":0.06,"13":0.035,"14":0.06,"15":0.02,"16":0.02,"17":0.02,"18":0.015,"20":0.02,"21":0.005,"23":0.005,"27":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.01,"1":0.005,"2":0.05,"3":0.06,"4":0.175,"5":0.21,"6":0.145,"7":0.11,"8":0.11,"9":0.055,"10":0.035,"11":0.025,"12":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.02,"1":0.05,"2":0.155,"3":0.19,"4":0.175,"5":0.21,"6":0.1,"7":0.05,"8":0.025,"9":0.005,"10":0.015,"11":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.08,"1":0.145,"2":0.14,"3":0.14,"4":0.13,"5":0.12,"6":0.095,"7":0.055,"8":0.02,"9":0.025,"10":0.02,"11":0.015,"12":0.01,"13":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1701820800000,"validUntil":1704412800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":4,"actual":1,"trainingCount":5471,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2023","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.24827500000000002,"mean":1.145,"median":1,"bias":0.14500000000000002,"maeMean":0.14500000000000002,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.385,"pitUpper":0.72,"empiricalMass":0.335,"logScore":1.0936247471570706},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.49065,"mean":0.33,"median":0,"bias":-0.6699999999999999,"maeMean":0.6699999999999999,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0.7,"pitUpper":0.975,"empiricalMass":0.275,"logScore":1.2909841813155656},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.24970000000000003,"mean":1.11,"median":1,"bias":0.1100000000000001,"maeMean":0.1100000000000001,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.39,"pitUpper":0.73,"empiricalMass":0.34,"logScore":1.0788096613719298},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.2528500000000001,"mean":0.73,"median":1,"bias":-0.27,"maeMean":0.27,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.475,"pitUpper":0.84,"empiricalMass":0.365,"logScore":1.0078579253996456},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.33490000000000003,"mean":0.5,"median":0,"bias":-0.5,"maeMean":0.5,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.575,"pitUpper":0.935,"empiricalMass":0.36,"logScore":1.0216512475319814},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.38947499999999996,"mean":0.505,"median":0,"bias":-0.495,"maeMean":0.495,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.615,"pitUpper":0.895,"empiricalMass":0.28,"logScore":1.2729656758128873}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.385,"1":0.335,"2":0.145,"3":0.085,"4":0.025,"5":0.015,"7":0.005,"11":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.7,"1":0.275,"2":0.02,"3":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.39,"1":0.34,"2":0.125,"3":0.09,"4":0.03,"5":0.02,"6":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.475,"1":0.365,"2":0.12,"3":0.035,"4":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.575,"1":0.36,"2":0.06,"4":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.615,"1":0.28,"2":0.09,"3":0.015}}},{"issuedAt":1704412800000,"validUntil":1704499200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":2,"actual":1,"trainingCount":5532,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2024","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.27335,"mean":1.2,"median":1,"bias":0.19999999999999996,"maeMean":0.19999999999999996,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.415,"pitUpper":0.74,"empiricalMass":0.325,"logScore":1.1239300966523995},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.25959999999999994,"mean":0.99,"median":1,"bias":-0.010000000000000009,"maeMean":0.010000000000000009,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.425,"pitUpper":0.74,"empiricalMass":0.315,"logScore":1.155182640156504},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.3007000000000001,"mean":1.3,"median":1,"bias":0.30000000000000004,"maeMean":0.30000000000000004,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.405,"pitUpper":0.685,"empiricalMass":0.28,"logScore":1.2729656758128873},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.3459249999999999,"mean":1.555,"median":1,"bias":0.5549999999999999,"maeMean":0.5549999999999999,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.265,"pitUpper":0.53,"empiricalMass":0.265,"logScore":1.3280254529959148},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.19630000000000003,"mean":0.94,"median":1,"bias":-0.06000000000000005,"maeMean":0.06000000000000005,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.365,"pitUpper":0.755,"empiricalMass":0.39,"logScore":0.941608539858445},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.3682249999999999,"mean":0.895,"median":0,"bias":-0.10499999999999998,"maeMean":0.10499999999999998,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.555,"pitUpper":0.78,"empiricalMass":0.225,"logScore":1.491654876777717}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.415,"1":0.325,"2":0.11,"3":0.06,"4":0.05,"5":0.015,"6":0.005,"7":0.005,"8":0.01,"11":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.425,"1":0.315,"2":0.16,"3":0.065,"4":0.025,"5":0.005,"7":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.405,"1":0.28,"2":0.165,"3":0.06,"4":0.025,"5":0.025,"6":0.01,"7":0.02,"8":0.005,"9":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.265,"1":0.265,"2":0.255,"3":0.13,"4":0.05,"5":0.025,"6":0.005,"7":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.365,"1":0.39,"2":0.19,"3":0.05,"4":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.555,"1":0.225,"2":0.13,"3":0.04,"4":0.025,"5":0.01,"6":0.005,"8":0.005,"14":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1704412800000,"validUntil":1704499200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":3,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5532,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2024","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.010925000000000004,"mean":0.135,"median":0,"bias":0.135,"maeMean":0.135,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.9,"empiricalMass":0.9,"logScore":0.10536051565782628},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.014499999999999999,"mean":0.13,"median":0,"bias":0.13,"maeMean":0.13,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.88,"empiricalMass":0.88,"logScore":0.12783337150988489},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.012624999999999997,"mean":0.145,"median":0,"bias":0.145,"maeMean":0.145,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.89,"empiricalMass":0.89,"logScore":0.11653381625595151},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.026249999999999996,"mean":0.19,"median":0,"bias":0.19,"maeMean":0.19,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.84,"empiricalMass":0.84,"logScore":0.1743533871447778},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.027324999999999988,"mean":0.175,"median":0,"bias":0.175,"maeMean":0.175,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.835,"empiricalMass":0.835,"logScore":0.18032355413128162},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.014300000000000007,"mean":0.17,"median":0,"bias":0.17,"maeMean":0.17,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.885,"empiricalMass":0.885,"logScore":0.12216763397420753}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.9,"1":0.07,"2":0.025,"3":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.88,"1":0.11,"2":0.01},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.89,"1":0.09,"2":0.01,"3":0.005,"4":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.84,"1":0.135,"2":0.02,"3":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.835,"1":0.155,"2":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.885,"1":0.085,"2":0.02,"3":0.005,"6":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1704412800000,"validUntil":1704499200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5532,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2024","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.00002499999999999985,"mean":0.005,"median":0,"bias":0.005,"maeMean":0.005,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.995,"empiricalMass":0.995,"logScore":0.005012541823544286},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.0000999999999999994,"mean":0.01,"median":0,"bias":0.01,"maeMean":0.01,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.99,"empiricalMass":0.99,"logScore":0.01005033585350145},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.00042500000000000177,"mean":0.025,"median":0,"bias":0.025,"maeMean":0.025,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.98,"empiricalMass":0.98,"logScore":0.020202707317519466},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.0016250000000000014,"mean":0.045,"median":0,"bias":0.045,"maeMean":0.045,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.96,"empiricalMass":0.96,"logScore":0.040821994520255166},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.00002499999999999985,"mean":0.005,"median":0,"bias":0.005,"maeMean":0.005,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.995,"empiricalMass":0.995,"logScore":0.005012541823544286},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.00040000000000000105,"mean":0.02,"median":0,"bias":0.02,"maeMean":0.02,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.98,"empiricalMass":0.98,"logScore":0.020202707317519466}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.995,"1":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.99,"1":0.01},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.98,"1":0.015,"2":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.96,"1":0.035,"2":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.995,"1":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.98,"1":0.02}}},{"issuedAt":1704412800000,"validUntil":1705017600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":2,"actual":12,"trainingCount":5532,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2024","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":1.8346999999999998,"mean":11.29,"median":9,"bias":-0.7100000000000009,"maeMean":0.7100000000000009,"maeMedian":3,"low":3,"high":25,"coverage":true,"width":22,"pitLower":0.625,"pitUpper":0.68,"empiricalMass":0.055,"logScore":2.900422093749666},"rollingETAS":{"crps":3.9851249999999996,"mean":6.495,"median":6,"bias":-5.505,"maeMean":5.505,"maeMedian":6,"low":2,"high":13,"coverage":true,"width":11,"pitLower":0.905,"pitUpper":0.935,"empiricalMass":0.03,"logScore":3.506557897319982},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":1.8442749999999997,"mean":12.445,"median":10,"bias":0.4450000000000003,"maeMean":0.4450000000000003,"maeMedian":2,"low":3,"high":30,"coverage":true,"width":27,"pitLower":0.59,"pitUpper":0.655,"empiricalMass":0.065,"logScore":2.7333680090865},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":1.0869749999999998,"mean":10.635,"median":10,"bias":-1.3650000000000002,"maeMean":1.3650000000000002,"maeMedian":2,"low":5,"high":17,"coverage":true,"width":12,"pitLower":0.62,"pitUpper":0.71,"empiricalMass":0.09,"logScore":2.4079456086518722},"recentPoisson":{"crps":4.2463,"mean":6.41,"median":6,"bias":-5.59,"maeMean":5.59,"maeMedian":6,"low":3,"high":11,"coverage":false,"width":8,"pitLower":0.96,"pitUpper":0.99,"empiricalMass":0.03,"logScore":3.506557897319982},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":4.19655,"mean":6.22,"median":5,"bias":-5.78,"maeMean":5.78,"maeMedian":7,"low":0,"high":16,"coverage":true,"width":16,"pitLower":0.85,"pitUpper":0.86,"empiricalMass":0.01,"logScore":4.605170185988091}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.005,"1":0.01,"2":0.015,"3":0.04,"4":0.06,"5":0.09,"6":0.09,"7":0.07,"8":0.07,"9":0.055,"10":0.05,"11":0.07,"12":0.055,"13":0.045,"14":0.075,"15":0.015,"16":0.02,"17":0.01,"18":0.025,"19":0.03,"20":0.03,"21":0.005,"22":0.005,"24":0.005,"25":0.005,"26":0.01,"27":0.005,"31":0.005,"33":0.005,"35":0.005,"42":0.005,"44":0.005,"53":0.005,"82":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.01,"1":0.035,"2":0.05,"3":0.105,"4":0.125,"5":0.155,"6":0.09,"7":0.09,"8":0.095,"9":0.06,"10":0.065,"11":0.025,"12":0.03,"13":0.015,"14":0.01,"15":0.015,"16":0.005,"17":0.005,"18":0.005,"20":0.01},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"1":0.01,"2":0.025,"3":0.05,"4":0.075,"5":0.05,"6":0.07,"7":0.08,"8":0.065,"9":0.05,"10":0.035,"11":0.08,"12":0.065,"13":0.07,"14":0.03,"15":0.015,"16":0.015,"17":0.03,"18":0.005,"19":0.025,"20":0.04,"21":0.015,"22":0.005,"23":0.005,"24":0.005,"25":0.005,"26":0.005,"27":0.01,"29":0.005,"30":0.01,"33":0.005,"35":0.005,"38":0.005,"39":0.005,"43":0.005,"44":0.005,"49":0.005,"64":0.01,"76":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"4":0.015,"5":0.035,"6":0.07,"7":0.075,"8":0.075,"9":0.12,"10":0.135,"11":0.095,"12":0.09,"13":0.1,"14":0.075,"15":0.02,"16":0.04,"17":0.025,"18":0.02,"22":0.005,"23":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"1":0.005,"2":0.015,"3":0.09,"4":0.145,"5":0.15,"6":0.12,"7":0.155,"8":0.155,"9":0.055,"10":0.035,"11":0.035,"12":0.03,"13":0.005,"15":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.065,"1":0.125,"2":0.095,"3":0.105,"4":0.08,"5":0.075,"6":0.07,"7":0.055,"8":0.05,"9":0.055,"10":0.055,"11":0.02,"12":0.01,"13":0.035,"14":0.025,"15":0.02,"16":0.015,"17":0.005,"18":0.005,"19":0.01,"20":0.005,"22":0.005,"23":0.005,"25":0.005,"29":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1704412800000,"validUntil":1705017600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":3,"actual":2,"trainingCount":5532,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2024","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.650375,"mean":1.305,"median":1,"bias":-0.6950000000000001,"maeMean":0.6950000000000001,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.685,"pitUpper":0.85,"empiricalMass":0.165,"logScore":1.8018098050815563},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.8661499999999999,"mean":0.83,"median":1,"bias":-1.17,"maeMean":1.17,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.79,"pitUpper":0.92,"empiricalMass":0.13,"logScore":2.0402208285265546},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.5798500000000001,"mean":1.6,"median":1,"bias":-0.3999999999999999,"maeMean":0.3999999999999999,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.61,"pitUpper":0.785,"empiricalMass":0.175,"logScore":1.742969305058623},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.4133,"mean":1.42,"median":1,"bias":-0.5800000000000001,"maeMean":0.5800000000000001,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.575,"pitUpper":0.845,"empiricalMass":0.27,"logScore":1.3093333199837622},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.65965,"mean":1,"median":1,"bias":-1,"maeMean":1,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.71,"pitUpper":0.915,"empiricalMass":0.205,"logScore":1.584745299843729},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.8307,"mean":0.99,"median":0,"bias":-1.01,"maeMean":1.01,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.745,"pitUpper":0.87,"empiricalMass":0.125,"logScore":2.0794415416798357}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.385,"1":0.3,"2":0.165,"3":0.07,"4":0.03,"5":0.02,"6":0.015,"8":0.01,"15":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.485,"1":0.305,"2":0.13,"3":0.06,"4":0.015,"5":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.365,"1":0.245,"2":0.175,"3":0.09,"4":0.035,"5":0.045,"6":0.01,"7":0.005,"8":0.015,"9":0.005,"11":0.01},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.235,"1":0.34,"2":0.27,"3":0.1,"4":0.035,"5":0.02},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.385,"1":0.325,"2":0.205,"3":0.075,"4":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.505,"1":0.24,"2":0.125,"3":0.075,"4":0.04,"7":0.01,"9":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1704412800000,"validUntil":1705017600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5532,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2024","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.006750000000000006,"mean":0.11,"median":0,"bias":0.11,"maeMean":0.11,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.92,"empiricalMass":0.92,"logScore":0.08338160893905101},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.007324999999999998,"mean":0.095,"median":0,"bias":0.095,"maeMean":0.095,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.915,"empiricalMass":0.915,"logScore":0.0888312137066157},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.01655000000000001,"mean":0.16,"median":0,"bias":0.16,"maeMean":0.16,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.875,"empiricalMass":0.875,"logScore":0.13353139262452263},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.033025,"mean":0.205,"median":0,"bias":0.205,"maeMean":0.205,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.82,"empiricalMass":0.82,"logScore":0.19845093872383832},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.018449999999999994,"mean":0.15,"median":0,"bias":0.15,"maeMean":0.15,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.865,"empiricalMass":0.865,"logScore":0.14502577205025774},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.012199999999999989,"mean":0.12,"median":0,"bias":0.12,"maeMean":0.12,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.89,"empiricalMass":0.89,"logScore":0.11653381625595151}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.92,"1":0.065,"2":0.005,"3":0.005,"4":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.915,"1":0.075,"2":0.01},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.875,"1":0.095,"2":0.025,"3":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.82,"1":0.155,"2":0.025},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.865,"1":0.12,"2":0.015},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.89,"1":0.1,"2":0.01}}},{"issuedAt":1704412800000,"validUntil":1707004800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":2,"actual":34,"trainingCount":5532,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2024","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":11.297875000000001,"mean":57.805,"median":53.5,"bias":23.805,"maeMean":23.805,"maeMedian":19.5,"low":25,"high":116,"coverage":true,"width":91,"pitLower":0.195,"pitUpper":0.23,"empiricalMass":0.035,"logScore":3.3524072174927233},"rollingETAS":{"crps":3.5854749999999997,"mean":28.955,"median":28,"bias":-5.045000000000002,"maeMean":5.045000000000002,"maeMedian":6,"low":16,"high":44,"coverage":true,"width":28,"pitLower":0.71,"pitUpper":0.745,"empiricalMass":0.035,"logScore":3.3524072174927233},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":11.010049999999998,"mean":56,"median":51,"bias":22,"maeMean":22,"maeMedian":17,"low":27,"high":105,"coverage":true,"width":78,"pitLower":0.145,"pitUpper":0.15,"empiricalMass":0.005,"logScore":5.298317366548036},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":8.253174999999999,"mean":45.875,"median":45,"bias":11.875,"maeMean":11.875,"maeMedian":11,"low":35,"high":56,"coverage":false,"width":21,"pitLower":0.005,"pitUpper":0.015,"empiricalMass":0.01,"logScore":4.605170185988091},"recentPoisson":{"crps":4.03015,"mean":27.36,"median":27,"bias":-6.640000000000001,"maeMean":6.640000000000001,"maeMedian":7,"low":18,"high":36,"coverage":true,"width":18,"pitLower":0.85,"pitUpper":0.9,"empiricalMass":0.05,"logScore":2.995732273553991},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":5.6404250000000005,"mean":26.775,"median":24,"bias":-7.225000000000001,"maeMean":7.225000000000001,"maeMedian":10,"low":9,"high":50,"coverage":true,"width":41,"pitLower":0.725,"pitUpper":0.745,"empiricalMass":0.02,"logScore":3.912023005428146}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"18":0.005,"19":0.01,"21":0.01,"22":0.005,"23":0.005,"24":0.005,"25":0.02,"26":0.01,"27":0.01,"28":0.025,"29":0.015,"30":0.025,"31":0.005,"32":0.015,"33":0.03,"34":0.035,"35":0.015,"36":0.01,"37":0.01,"38":0.015,"39":0.01,"40":0.01,"41":0.02,"42":0.03,"43":0.015,"44":0.01,"45":0.01,"46":0.015,"47":0.025,"48":0.005,"49":0.03,"50":0.005,"51":0.005,"52":0.01,"53":0.02,"54":0.045,"55":0.025,"56":0.005,"58":0.015,"59":0.03,"60":0.01,"61":0.03,"62":0.01,"63":0.005,"64":0.01,"66":0.02,"67":0.025,"68":0.005,"69":0.015,"70":0.005,"71":0.005,"72":0.01,"73":0.005,"74":0.005,"76":0.015,"77":0.005,"78":0.015,"79":0.01,"82":0.025,"83":0.01,"84":0.005,"88":0.005,"90":0.005,"92":0.005,"95":0.015,"99":0.01,"101":0.01,"102":0.015,"105":0.005,"110":0.005,"116":0.01,"118":0.01,"120":0.01,"123":0.005,"125":0.005,"138":0.005,"147":0.005,"169":0.005,"175":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"12":0.01,"13":0.015,"14":0.005,"15":0.005,"16":0.02,"17":0.03,"18":0.03,"19":0.02,"20":0.03,"21":0.035,"22":0.045,"23":0.045,"24":0.06,"25":0.035,"26":0.065,"27":0.025,"28":0.045,"29":0.055,"30":0.04,"31":0.03,"32":0.045,"33":0.02,"34":0.035,"35":0.02,"36":0.025,"37":0.04,"38":0.045,"39":0.01,"40":0.03,"41":0.005,"42":0.025,"44":0.005,"45":0.005,"47":0.005,"49":0.005,"51":0.005,"52":0.02,"54":0.005,"61":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"18":0.005,"19":0.005,"21":0.005,"22":0.01,"25":0.005,"26":0.015,"27":0.005,"28":0.01,"29":0.01,"30":0.01,"31":0.02,"32":0.03,"33":0.015,"34":0.005,"35":0.02,"36":0.015,"37":0.015,"38":0.025,"39":0.02,"41":0.025,"42":0.03,"43":0.025,"44":0.03,"45":0.03,"46":0.015,"47":0.025,"48":0.005,"49":0.035,"50":0.03,"51":0.02,"52":0.025,"53":0.03,"54":0.025,"56":0.015,"57":0.03,"58":0.01,"59":0.015,"60":0.005,"61":0.025,"62":0.015,"63":0.02,"64":0.02,"65":0.005,"66":0.01,"67":0.025,"68":0.005,"69":0.005,"70":0.015,"73":0.005,"74":0.01,"75":0.015,"79":0.02,"80":0.01,"81":0.005,"82":0.005,"83":0.005,"85":0.005,"86":0.005,"87":0.005,"88":0.005,"93":0.005,"94":0.005,"99":0.005,"101":0.005,"102":0.005,"103":0.005,"105":0.01,"107":0.005,"108":0.005,"110":0.005,"115":0.005,"124":0.005,"132":0.005,"134":0.005,"135":0.005,"143":0.005,"153":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"33":0.005,"34":0.01,"35":0.04,"36":0.015,"37":0.005,"38":0.035,"39":0.045,"40":0.06,"41":0.06,"42":0.065,"43":0.055,"44":0.08,"45":0.04,"46":0.055,"47":0.06,"48":0.03,"49":0.025,"50":0.05,"51":0.06,"52":0.05,"53":0.04,"54":0.015,"55":0.015,"56":0.04,"58":0.025,"60":0.005,"61":0.005,"66":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"10":0.005,"13":0.005,"15":0.005,"16":0.005,"17":0.025,"18":0.02,"19":0.015,"20":0.025,"21":0.05,"22":0.045,"23":0.06,"24":0.07,"25":0.035,"26":0.08,"27":0.065,"28":0.055,"29":0.09,"30":0.045,"31":0.045,"32":0.055,"33":0.05,"34":0.05,"35":0.035,"36":0.02,"37":0.02,"39":0.015,"43":0.005,"44":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"3":0.005,"4":0.005,"6":0.01,"7":0.005,"8":0.015,"9":0.02,"10":0.035,"11":0.025,"12":0.01,"13":0.03,"14":0.005,"15":0.025,"16":0.045,"17":0.045,"18":0.025,"19":0.025,"20":0.025,"21":0.05,"22":0.04,"23":0.04,"24":0.045,"25":0.015,"26":0.03,"27":0.045,"28":0.02,"29":0.01,"30":0.025,"31":0.005,"32":0.02,"33":0.025,"34":0.02,"35":0.03,"36":0.01,"37":0.005,"38":0.03,"39":0.015,"40":0.025,"41":0.02,"43":0.01,"44":0.005,"45":0.02,"46":0.005,"47":0.005,"48":0.01,"49":0.005,"50":0.01,"51":0.005,"53":0.005,"56":0.005,"58":0.005,"59":0.005,"67":0.005,"74":0.01,"76":0.005,"87":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1704412800000,"validUntil":1707004800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":3,"actual":7,"trainingCount":5532,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2024","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":1.2336249999999995,"mean":7.365,"median":6,"bias":0.3650000000000002,"maeMean":0.3650000000000002,"maeMedian":1,"low":1,"high":17,"coverage":true,"width":16,"pitLower":0.525,"pitUpper":0.565,"empiricalMass":0.04,"logScore":3.2188758248682006},"rollingETAS":{"crps":2.3759250000000005,"mean":3.615,"median":3,"bias":-3.385,"maeMean":3.385,"maeMedian":4,"low":0,"high":8,"coverage":true,"width":8,"pitLower":0.885,"pitUpper":0.93,"empiricalMass":0.045,"logScore":3.101092789211817},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.9869749999999997,"mean":7.145,"median":6,"bias":0.14499999999999957,"maeMean":0.14499999999999957,"maeMedian":1,"low":2,"high":17,"coverage":true,"width":15,"pitLower":0.505,"pitUpper":0.61,"empiricalMass":0.105,"logScore":2.2537949288246137},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.8048,"mean":5.83,"median":6,"bias":-1.17,"maeMean":1.17,"maeMedian":1,"low":2,"high":10,"coverage":true,"width":8,"pitLower":0.61,"pitUpper":0.775,"empiricalMass":0.165,"logScore":1.8018098050815563},"recentPoisson":{"crps":1.7477,"mean":4.28,"median":4,"bias":-2.7199999999999998,"maeMean":2.7199999999999998,"maeMedian":3,"low":1,"high":8,"coverage":true,"width":7,"pitLower":0.855,"pitUpper":0.93,"empiricalMass":0.075,"logScore":2.5902671654458267},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":1.7975999999999999,"mean":4.52,"median":4,"bias":-2.4800000000000004,"maeMean":2.4800000000000004,"maeMedian":3,"low":1,"high":11,"coverage":true,"width":10,"pitLower":0.775,"pitUpper":0.84,"empiricalMass":0.065,"logScore":2.7333680090865}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.025,"1":0.07,"2":0.075,"3":0.09,"4":0.09,"5":0.07,"6":0.105,"7":0.04,"8":0.065,"9":0.065,"10":0.075,"11":0.05,"12":0.05,"13":0.03,"14":0.015,"15":0.02,"16":0.01,"17":0.01,"18":0.01,"20":0.005,"21":0.005,"22":0.005,"23":0.005,"25":0.005,"27":0.005,"30":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.05,"1":0.115,"2":0.185,"3":0.165,"4":0.19,"5":0.115,"6":0.065,"7":0.045,"8":0.04,"9":0.025,"10":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.015,"1":0.03,"2":0.04,"3":0.14,"4":0.095,"5":0.105,"6":0.08,"7":0.105,"8":0.08,"9":0.065,"10":0.065,"11":0.04,"12":0.05,"13":0.01,"14":0.015,"15":0.01,"17":0.02,"18":0.005,"20":0.01,"21":0.005,"22":0.005,"23":0.005,"26":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.005,"2":0.065,"3":0.095,"4":0.16,"5":0.145,"6":0.14,"7":0.165,"8":0.1,"9":0.05,"10":0.03,"11":0.035,"12":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.02,"1":0.065,"2":0.165,"3":0.12,"4":0.19,"5":0.14,"6":0.155,"7":0.075,"8":0.04,"9":0.015,"10":0.01,"11":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.04,"1":0.14,"2":0.095,"3":0.15,"4":0.155,"5":0.14,"6":0.055,"7":0.065,"8":0.05,"9":0.025,"10":0.02,"11":0.025,"12":0.01,"13":0.015,"14":0.01,"16":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1704412800000,"validUntil":1707004800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5532,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2024","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.344125,"mean":0.955,"median":1,"bias":0.955,"maeMean":0.955,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.47,"empiricalMass":0.47,"logScore":0.7550225842780328},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.12925000000000003,"mean":0.46,"median":0,"bias":0.46,"maeMean":0.46,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.655,"empiricalMass":0.655,"logScore":0.4231200433468851},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.278875,"mean":0.815,"median":0,"bias":0.815,"maeMean":0.815,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.515,"empiricalMass":0.515,"logScore":0.6635883783184009},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.24287500000000006,"mean":0.685,"median":0,"bias":0.685,"maeMean":0.685,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.545,"empiricalMass":0.545,"logScore":0.6069694843188929},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.22624999999999995,"mean":0.57,"median":0,"bias":0.57,"maeMean":0.57,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.535,"empiricalMass":0.535,"logScore":0.6254885320861304},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.1265,"mean":0.43,"median":0,"bias":0.43,"maeMean":0.43,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.65,"empiricalMass":0.65,"logScore":0.4307829160924542}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.47,"1":0.31,"2":0.115,"3":0.05,"4":0.03,"5":0.015,"6":0.005,"8":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.655,"1":0.245,"2":0.085,"3":0.015},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.515,"1":0.295,"2":0.12,"3":0.025,"4":0.02,"5":0.025},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.545,"1":0.27,"2":0.145,"3":0.035,"4":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.535,"1":0.365,"2":0.095,"3":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.65,"1":0.29,"2":0.04,"3":0.02}}},{"issuedAt":1707004800000,"validUntil":1707091200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":2,"actual":3,"trainingCount":5566,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2024","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":1.084175,"mean":1.665,"median":1,"bias":-1.335,"maeMean":1.335,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.78,"pitUpper":0.86,"empiricalMass":0.08,"logScore":2.5257286443082556},"rollingETAS":{"crps":1.7354499999999997,"mean":0.89,"median":0,"bias":-2.11,"maeMean":2.11,"maeMedian":3,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.91,"pitUpper":0.97,"empiricalMass":0.06,"logScore":2.8134107167600364},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":1.32115,"mean":1.44,"median":1,"bias":-1.56,"maeMean":1.56,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.835,"pitUpper":0.92,"empiricalMass":0.085,"logScore":2.4651040224918206},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":1.0026000000000002,"mean":1.51,"median":1,"bias":-1.49,"maeMean":1.49,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.825,"pitUpper":0.945,"empiricalMass":0.12,"logScore":2.120263536200091},"recentPoisson":{"crps":1.6476000000000002,"mean":0.92,"median":1,"bias":-2.08,"maeMean":2.08,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.945,"pitUpper":0.995,"empiricalMass":0.05,"logScore":2.995732273553991},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":1.7428500000000002,"mean":0.94,"median":0,"bias":-2.06,"maeMean":2.06,"maeMedian":3,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.87,"pitUpper":0.91,"empiricalMass":0.04,"logScore":3.2188758248682006}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.265,"1":0.35,"2":0.165,"3":0.08,"4":0.07,"5":0.025,"6":0.025,"7":0.005,"8":0.01,"15":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.515,"1":0.285,"2":0.11,"3":0.06,"4":0.005,"5":0.005,"6":0.015,"14":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.395,"1":0.28,"2":0.16,"3":0.085,"4":0.03,"5":0.015,"6":0.01,"7":0.01,"12":0.01,"28":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.195,"1":0.335,"2":0.295,"3":0.12,"4":0.05,"5":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.35,"1":0.445,"2":0.15,"3":0.05,"5":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.605,"1":0.175,"2":0.09,"3":0.04,"4":0.04,"5":0.025,"6":0.01,"7":0.01,"10":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1707004800000,"validUntil":1707091200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":3,"actual":1,"trainingCount":5566,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2024","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.7659,"mean":0.15,"median":0,"bias":-0.85,"maeMean":0.85,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0.875,"pitUpper":0.985,"empiricalMass":0.11,"logScore":2.2072749131897207},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.81915,"mean":0.11,"median":0,"bias":-0.89,"maeMean":0.89,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0.905,"pitUpper":0.99,"empiricalMass":0.085,"logScore":2.4651040224918206},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.8023499999999999,"mean":0.15,"median":0,"bias":-0.85,"maeMean":0.85,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0.895,"pitUpper":0.965,"empiricalMass":0.07,"logScore":2.659260036932778},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.6728,"mean":0.2,"median":0,"bias":-0.8,"maeMean":0.8,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0.82,"pitUpper":0.98,"empiricalMass":0.16,"logScore":1.8325814637483102},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.7569,"mean":0.13,"median":0,"bias":-0.87,"maeMean":0.87,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0.87,"pitUpper":1,"empiricalMass":0.13,"logScore":2.0402208285265546},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.7244999999999999,"mean":0.24,"median":0,"bias":-0.76,"maeMean":0.76,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0.85,"pitUpper":0.965,"empiricalMass":0.115,"logScore":2.162823150618887}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.875,"1":0.11,"2":0.01,"4":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.905,"1":0.085,"2":0.005,"3":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.895,"1":0.07,"2":0.025,"3":0.01},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.82,"1":0.16,"2":0.02},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.87,"1":0.13},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.85,"1":0.115,"2":0.02,"5":0.005,"6":0.01}}},{"issuedAt":1707004800000,"validUntil":1707091200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5566,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2024","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.00002499999999999985,"mean":0.005,"median":0,"bias":0.005,"maeMean":0.005,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.995,"empiricalMass":0.995,"logScore":0.005012541823544286},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.0006250000000000006,"mean":0.025,"median":0,"bias":0.025,"maeMean":0.025,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.975,"empiricalMass":0.975,"logScore":0.025317807984289897},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.00032500000000000237,"mean":0.025,"median":0,"bias":0.025,"maeMean":0.025,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.985,"empiricalMass":0.985,"logScore":0.015113637810048184},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.0012250000000000039,"mean":0.035,"median":0,"bias":0.035,"maeMean":0.035,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.965,"empiricalMass":0.965,"logScore":0.03562717764315116},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.0006250000000000006,"mean":0.025,"median":0,"bias":0.025,"maeMean":0.025,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.975,"empiricalMass":0.975,"logScore":0.025317807984289897},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.0000999999999999994,"mean":0.01,"median":0,"bias":0.01,"maeMean":0.01,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.99,"empiricalMass":0.99,"logScore":0.01005033585350145}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.995,"1":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.975,"1":0.025},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.985,"1":0.005,"2":0.01},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.965,"1":0.035},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.975,"1":0.025},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.99,"1":0.01}}},{"issuedAt":1707004800000,"validUntil":1707609600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":2,"actual":6,"trainingCount":5566,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2024","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":2.0455249999999996,"mean":11.255,"median":9,"bias":5.255000000000001,"maeMean":5.255000000000001,"maeMedian":3,"low":3,"high":27,"coverage":true,"width":24,"pitLower":0.2,"pitUpper":0.29,"empiricalMass":0.09,"logScore":2.4079456086518722},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.8674249999999999,"mean":6.545,"median":6,"bias":0.5449999999999999,"maeMean":0.5449999999999999,"maeMedian":0,"low":2,"high":13,"coverage":true,"width":11,"pitLower":0.43,"pitUpper":0.535,"empiricalMass":0.105,"logScore":2.2537949288246137},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":3.1087249999999997,"mean":12.605,"median":10,"bias":6.605,"maeMean":6.605,"maeMedian":4,"low":3,"high":29,"coverage":true,"width":26,"pitLower":0.18,"pitUpper":0.205,"empiricalMass":0.025,"logScore":3.6888794541139363},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":2.8149999999999995,"mean":10.36,"median":10,"bias":4.359999999999999,"maeMean":4.359999999999999,"maeMedian":4,"low":5,"high":15,"coverage":true,"width":10,"pitLower":0.055,"pitUpper":0.105,"empiricalMass":0.05,"logScore":2.995732273553991},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.550225,"mean":5.935,"median":6,"bias":-0.06500000000000039,"maeMean":0.06500000000000039,"maeMedian":0,"low":2,"high":10,"coverage":true,"width":8,"pitLower":0.46,"pitUpper":0.625,"empiricalMass":0.165,"logScore":1.8018098050815563},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":1.2415000000000003,"mean":6.57,"median":5,"bias":0.5700000000000003,"maeMean":0.5700000000000003,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":19,"coverage":true,"width":19,"pitLower":0.555,"pitUpper":0.635,"empiricalMass":0.08,"logScore":2.5257286443082556}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"1":0.015,"2":0.03,"3":0.035,"4":0.065,"5":0.055,"6":0.09,"7":0.105,"8":0.095,"9":0.08,"10":0.06,"11":0.055,"12":0.015,"13":0.025,"14":0.03,"15":0.035,"16":0.025,"17":0.03,"18":0.02,"19":0.01,"20":0.02,"21":0.01,"22":0.005,"23":0.005,"24":0.015,"25":0.005,"27":0.015,"29":0.01,"30":0.01,"32":0.005,"38":0.005,"39":0.005,"40":0.005,"44":0.005,"78":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"1":0.025,"2":0.105,"3":0.1,"4":0.125,"5":0.075,"6":0.105,"7":0.095,"8":0.12,"9":0.065,"10":0.045,"11":0.045,"12":0.03,"13":0.025,"14":0.015,"15":0.005,"17":0.005,"18":0.01,"23":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.01,"1":0.005,"2":0.02,"3":0.035,"4":0.065,"5":0.045,"6":0.025,"7":0.07,"8":0.085,"9":0.07,"10":0.08,"11":0.05,"12":0.045,"13":0.045,"14":0.025,"15":0.05,"16":0.025,"17":0.025,"18":0.05,"19":0.005,"20":0.035,"21":0.01,"22":0.005,"23":0.025,"24":0.015,"25":0.005,"26":0.005,"27":0.01,"29":0.01,"31":0.01,"32":0.01,"35":0.01,"40":0.005,"42":0.01,"51":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"5":0.055,"6":0.05,"7":0.06,"8":0.13,"9":0.1,"10":0.12,"11":0.13,"12":0.11,"13":0.1,"14":0.06,"15":0.06,"16":0.005,"17":0.01,"18":0.005,"19":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.005,"1":0.015,"2":0.04,"3":0.08,"4":0.145,"5":0.175,"6":0.165,"7":0.12,"8":0.115,"9":0.06,"10":0.035,"11":0.035,"12":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.08,"1":0.105,"2":0.065,"3":0.11,"4":0.09,"5":0.105,"6":0.08,"7":0.045,"8":0.06,"9":0.03,"10":0.035,"11":0.035,"12":0.02,"13":0.01,"14":0.015,"15":0.02,"16":0.015,"17":0.01,"18":0.015,"19":0.01,"20":0.01,"21":0.015,"24":0.005,"25":0.005,"32":0.005,"34":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1707004800000,"validUntil":1707609600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":3,"actual":1,"trainingCount":5566,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2024","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.3206,"mean":1.41,"median":1,"bias":0.4099999999999999,"maeMean":0.4099999999999999,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.405,"pitUpper":0.685,"empiricalMass":0.28,"logScore":1.2729656758128873},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.31807500000000005,"mean":0.715,"median":0,"bias":-0.28500000000000003,"maeMean":0.28500000000000003,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.535,"pitUpper":0.835,"empiricalMass":0.3,"logScore":1.2039728043259361},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.3237,"mean":1.61,"median":1,"bias":0.6100000000000001,"maeMean":0.6100000000000001,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.305,"pitUpper":0.61,"empiricalMass":0.305,"logScore":1.1874435023747254},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.24432500000000001,"mean":1.305,"median":1,"bias":0.30499999999999994,"maeMean":0.30499999999999994,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.285,"pitUpper":0.63,"empiricalMass":0.345,"logScore":1.0642108619507773},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.22825000000000006,"mean":1.13,"median":1,"bias":0.1299999999999999,"maeMean":0.1299999999999999,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.325,"pitUpper":0.665,"empiricalMass":0.34,"logScore":1.0788096613719298},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.3077,"mean":1.08,"median":1,"bias":0.08000000000000007,"maeMean":0.08000000000000007,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.465,"pitUpper":0.74,"empiricalMass":0.275,"logScore":1.2909841813155656}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.405,"1":0.28,"2":0.125,"3":0.08,"4":0.035,"5":0.03,"6":0.015,"7":0.01,"8":0.01,"9":0.005,"13":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.535,"1":0.3,"2":0.1,"3":0.045,"4":0.02},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.305,"1":0.305,"2":0.155,"3":0.105,"4":0.065,"5":0.025,"6":0.025,"8":0.005,"9":0.005,"12":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.285,"1":0.345,"2":0.22,"3":0.09,"4":0.05,"5":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.325,"1":0.34,"2":0.235,"3":0.08,"4":0.02},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.465,"1":0.275,"2":0.135,"3":0.05,"4":0.035,"5":0.015,"6":0.005,"7":0.02}}},{"issuedAt":1707004800000,"validUntil":1707609600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5566,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2024","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.024550000000000016,"mean":0.2,"median":0,"bias":0.2,"maeMean":0.2,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.85,"empiricalMass":0.85,"logScore":0.16251892949777494},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.012199999999999989,"mean":0.12,"median":0,"bias":0.12,"maeMean":0.12,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.89,"empiricalMass":0.89,"logScore":0.11653381625595151},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.023150000000000004,"mean":0.18,"median":0,"bias":0.18,"maeMean":0.18,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.85,"empiricalMass":0.85,"logScore":0.16251892949777494},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.04685,"mean":0.24,"median":0,"bias":0.24,"maeMean":0.24,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.785,"empiricalMass":0.785,"logScore":0.24207156119972859},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.015725000000000003,"mean":0.135,"median":0,"bias":0.135,"maeMean":0.135,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.875,"empiricalMass":0.875,"logScore":0.13353139262452263},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.013225,"mean":0.115,"median":0,"bias":0.115,"maeMean":0.115,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.885,"empiricalMass":0.885,"logScore":0.12216763397420753}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.85,"1":0.105,"2":0.04,"3":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.89,"1":0.1,"2":0.01},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.85,"1":0.125,"2":0.02,"3":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.785,"1":0.19,"2":0.025},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.875,"1":0.115,"2":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.885,"1":0.115}}},{"issuedAt":1707004800000,"validUntil":1709596800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":2,"actual":79,"trainingCount":5566,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2024","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":14.899175000000001,"mean":59.715,"median":53,"bias":-19.284999999999997,"maeMean":19.284999999999997,"maeMedian":26,"low":27,"high":109,"coverage":true,"width":82,"pitLower":0.82,"pitUpper":0.835,"empiricalMass":0.015,"logScore":4.199705077879927},"rollingETAS":{"crps":48.32345,"mean":26.53,"median":25,"bias":-52.47,"maeMean":52.47,"maeMedian":54,"low":17,"high":41,"coverage":false,"width":24,"pitLower":1,"pitUpper":1,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":17.961175000000004,"mean":56.525,"median":49,"bias":-22.475,"maeMean":22.475,"maeMedian":30,"low":25,"high":116,"coverage":true,"width":91,"pitLower":0.84,"pitUpper":0.845,"empiricalMass":0.005,"logScore":5.298317366548036},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":30.2391,"mean":44.94,"median":45,"bias":-34.06,"maeMean":34.06,"maeMedian":34,"low":34,"high":57,"coverage":false,"width":23,"pitLower":1,"pitUpper":1,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentPoisson":{"crps":48.2558,"mean":27.91,"median":28,"bias":-51.09,"maeMean":51.09,"maeMedian":51,"low":18,"high":37,"coverage":false,"width":19,"pitLower":1,"pitUpper":1,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":44.9054,"mean":26.5,"median":24.5,"bias":-52.5,"maeMean":52.5,"maeMedian":54.5,"low":8,"high":53,"coverage":false,"width":45,"pitLower":1,"pitUpper":1,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"20":0.005,"22":0.005,"23":0.01,"25":0.005,"26":0.015,"27":0.02,"28":0.015,"29":0.02,"30":0.015,"31":0.005,"32":0.01,"33":0.005,"34":0.005,"35":0.03,"36":0.01,"37":0.025,"38":0.025,"39":0.02,"40":0.015,"41":0.01,"42":0.02,"43":0.03,"44":0.03,"45":0.015,"46":0.02,"47":0.025,"48":0.02,"49":0.015,"50":0.01,"51":0.015,"52":0.01,"53":0.025,"54":0.025,"55":0.005,"56":0.025,"57":0.02,"58":0.01,"59":0.01,"60":0.03,"61":0.01,"63":0.02,"64":0.005,"65":0.01,"66":0.02,"67":0.015,"69":0.01,"70":0.015,"71":0.005,"72":0.03,"73":0.02,"76":0.015,"77":0.005,"78":0.01,"79":0.015,"81":0.02,"82":0.01,"84":0.01,"85":0.005,"88":0.005,"89":0.005,"90":0.005,"93":0.01,"95":0.005,"98":0.005,"99":0.005,"101":0.005,"104":0.005,"106":0.01,"108":0.005,"109":0.005,"110":0.005,"111":0.005,"120":0.005,"124":0.005,"130":0.005,"149":0.005,"171":0.005,"179":0.005,"205":0.005,"252":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"8":0.005,"9":0.005,"14":0.005,"15":0.005,"16":0.025,"17":0.04,"18":0.045,"19":0.035,"20":0.065,"21":0.035,"22":0.06,"23":0.055,"24":0.065,"25":0.07,"26":0.035,"27":0.03,"28":0.06,"29":0.055,"30":0.04,"31":0.05,"32":0.03,"33":0.015,"34":0.03,"35":0.035,"36":0.01,"37":0.025,"38":0.005,"39":0.005,"40":0.005,"41":0.005,"42":0.01,"43":0.015,"44":0.01,"45":0.005,"55":0.005,"58":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"17":0.01,"19":0.01,"20":0.01,"21":0.005,"22":0.005,"24":0.005,"25":0.015,"26":0.01,"27":0.01,"28":0.005,"29":0.015,"30":0.015,"31":0.01,"32":0.01,"33":0.015,"34":0.02,"35":0.04,"36":0.03,"37":0.015,"38":0.025,"39":0.025,"40":0.025,"41":0.02,"42":0.02,"43":0.01,"44":0.04,"45":0.025,"46":0.01,"47":0.01,"48":0.025,"49":0.02,"50":0.01,"51":0.02,"52":0.005,"53":0.035,"54":0.005,"55":0.025,"56":0.02,"57":0.03,"58":0.005,"59":0.025,"60":0.01,"61":0.015,"62":0.015,"63":0.015,"64":0.005,"65":0.005,"66":0.015,"67":0.005,"68":0.01,"69":0.005,"70":0.005,"72":0.005,"73":0.005,"75":0.015,"76":0.005,"77":0.01,"78":0.005,"79":0.005,"81":0.015,"85":0.005,"86":0.005,"87":0.01,"89":0.005,"90":0.005,"92":0.005,"93":0.005,"94":0.005,"95":0.005,"97":0.01,"100":0.005,"104":0.005,"105":0.005,"108":0.005,"113":0.005,"116":0.005,"122":0.005,"123":0.005,"127":0.005,"129":0.005,"130":0.005,"144":0.005,"145":0.005,"147":0.005,"174":0.005,"269":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"26":0.005,"31":0.015,"32":0.015,"33":0.01,"34":0.02,"35":0.02,"36":0.01,"37":0.035,"38":0.02,"39":0.045,"40":0.055,"41":0.085,"42":0.065,"43":0.035,"44":0.04,"45":0.06,"46":0.055,"47":0.08,"48":0.045,"49":0.045,"50":0.055,"51":0.02,"52":0.02,"53":0.025,"54":0.03,"55":0.02,"56":0.015,"57":0.015,"58":0.015,"59":0.005,"60":0.01,"62":0.005,"65":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"15":0.005,"16":0.005,"17":0.02,"18":0.02,"20":0.02,"21":0.025,"22":0.05,"23":0.04,"24":0.06,"25":0.07,"26":0.04,"27":0.1,"28":0.085,"29":0.11,"30":0.05,"31":0.09,"32":0.055,"33":0.03,"34":0.025,"35":0.03,"36":0.015,"37":0.015,"38":0.015,"39":0.01,"40":0.01,"43":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"4":0.005,"5":0.01,"6":0.01,"7":0.01,"8":0.02,"9":0.025,"10":0.01,"11":0.03,"12":0.025,"13":0.01,"14":0.035,"15":0.05,"16":0.02,"17":0.03,"18":0.05,"19":0.03,"20":0.025,"21":0.01,"22":0.035,"23":0.03,"24":0.03,"25":0.04,"26":0.015,"27":0.03,"28":0.03,"29":0.03,"30":0.045,"31":0.01,"32":0.03,"33":0.02,"34":0.01,"35":0.015,"36":0.015,"37":0.015,"38":0.01,"39":0.02,"40":0.005,"41":0.005,"42":0.015,"43":0.015,"44":0.015,"45":0.01,"46":0.005,"48":0.005,"49":0.005,"50":0.01,"51":0.005,"52":0.005,"53":0.015,"55":0.01,"56":0.015,"57":0.01,"65":0.005,"66":0.005,"77":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1707004800000,"validUntil":1709596800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":3,"actual":12,"trainingCount":5566,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2024","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":3.418925,"mean":7.355,"median":6,"bias":-4.645,"maeMean":4.645,"maeMedian":6,"low":1,"high":16,"coverage":true,"width":15,"pitLower":0.865,"pitUpper":0.885,"empiricalMass":0.02,"logScore":3.912023005428146},"rollingETAS":{"crps":7.826825,"mean":3.085,"median":3,"bias":-8.915,"maeMean":8.915,"maeMedian":9,"low":1,"high":7,"coverage":false,"width":6,"pitLower":0.995,"pitUpper":0.995,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":4.006525,"mean":6.655,"median":6,"bias":-5.345,"maeMean":5.345,"maeMedian":6,"low":1,"high":15,"coverage":true,"width":14,"pitLower":0.885,"pitUpper":0.9,"empiricalMass":0.015,"logScore":4.199705077879927},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":4.66625,"mean":6,"median":6,"bias":-6,"maeMean":6,"maeMedian":6,"low":2,"high":10,"coverage":false,"width":8,"pitLower":0.985,"pitUpper":0.995,"empiricalMass":0.01,"logScore":4.605170185988091},"recentPoisson":{"crps":6.542425000000001,"mean":4.235,"median":4,"bias":-7.765,"maeMean":7.765,"maeMedian":8,"low":1,"high":8,"coverage":false,"width":7,"pitLower":0.995,"pitUpper":0.995,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":6.3359749999999995,"mean":4.135,"median":3,"bias":-7.865,"maeMean":7.865,"maeMedian":9,"low":0,"high":10,"coverage":false,"width":10,"pitLower":0.985,"pitUpper":0.99,"empiricalMass":0.005,"logScore":5.298317366548036}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.025,"1":0.04,"2":0.085,"3":0.075,"4":0.09,"5":0.1,"6":0.1,"7":0.09,"8":0.09,"9":0.055,"10":0.025,"11":0.09,"12":0.02,"13":0.02,"14":0.01,"15":0.015,"16":0.035,"19":0.005,"22":0.005,"23":0.005,"25":0.005,"31":0.005,"34":0.005,"36":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.035,"1":0.205,"2":0.235,"3":0.165,"4":0.155,"5":0.085,"6":0.05,"7":0.045,"9":0.015,"10":0.005,"14":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.01,"1":0.06,"2":0.08,"3":0.095,"4":0.12,"5":0.13,"6":0.1,"7":0.085,"8":0.06,"9":0.07,"10":0.03,"11":0.045,"12":0.015,"13":0.01,"14":0.025,"15":0.015,"17":0.01,"19":0.015,"20":0.01,"21":0.005,"23":0.005,"32":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.005,"1":0.025,"2":0.025,"3":0.095,"4":0.11,"5":0.17,"6":0.195,"7":0.115,"8":0.125,"9":0.045,"10":0.04,"11":0.035,"12":0.01,"13":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.02,"1":0.065,"2":0.135,"3":0.18,"4":0.23,"5":0.12,"6":0.095,"7":0.055,"8":0.05,"9":0.03,"10":0.015,"13":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.055,"1":0.105,"2":0.155,"3":0.21,"4":0.115,"5":0.075,"6":0.085,"7":0.06,"8":0.055,"9":0.025,"10":0.03,"11":0.015,"12":0.005,"13":0.005,"14":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1707004800000,"validUntil":1709596800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":4,"actual":3,"trainingCount":5566,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2024","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":1.744325,"mean":0.875,"median":0,"bias":-2.125,"maeMean":2.125,"maeMedian":3,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.89,"pitUpper":0.935,"empiricalMass":0.045,"logScore":3.101092789211817},"rollingETAS":{"crps":2.37265,"mean":0.37,"median":0,"bias":-2.63,"maeMean":2.63,"maeMedian":3,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":false,"width":1,"pitLower":0.99,"pitUpper":0.995,"empiricalMass":0.005,"logScore":5.298317366548036},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":1.7848000000000002,"mean":0.81,"median":0,"bias":-2.19,"maeMean":2.19,"maeMedian":3,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.92,"pitUpper":0.95,"empiricalMass":0.03,"logScore":3.506557897319982},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":1.7705250000000001,"mean":0.775,"median":0.5,"bias":-2.225,"maeMean":2.225,"maeMedian":2.5,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":false,"width":2,"pitLower":0.955,"pitUpper":0.99,"empiricalMass":0.035,"logScore":3.3524072174927233},"recentPoisson":{"crps":2.155,"mean":0.53,"median":0,"bias":-2.4699999999999998,"maeMean":2.4699999999999998,"maeMedian":3,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":false,"width":2,"pitLower":0.98,"pitUpper":0.995,"empiricalMass":0.015,"logScore":4.199705077879927},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":2.30435,"mean":0.4,"median":0,"bias":-2.6,"maeMean":2.6,"maeMedian":3,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":false,"width":2,"pitLower":0.985,"pitUpper":1,"empiricalMass":0.015,"logScore":4.199705077879927}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.575,"1":0.21,"2":0.105,"3":0.045,"4":0.035,"5":0.02,"7":0.005,"9":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.7,"1":0.25,"2":0.04,"3":0.005,"5":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.565,"1":0.22,"2":0.135,"3":0.03,"4":0.03,"5":0.015,"7":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.5,"1":0.28,"2":0.175,"3":0.035,"4":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.59,"1":0.33,"2":0.06,"3":0.015,"7":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.685,"1":0.245,"2":0.055,"3":0.015}}},{"issuedAt":1709596800000,"validUntil":1709683200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":2,"actual":1,"trainingCount":5645,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2024","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":3.5957000000000003,"mean":6.97,"median":6,"bias":5.97,"maeMean":5.97,"maeMedian":5,"low":1,"high":14,"coverage":true,"width":13,"pitLower":0.005,"pitUpper":0.05,"empiricalMass":0.045,"logScore":3.101092789211817},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.8842000000000001,"mean":2.7,"median":2,"bias":1.7000000000000002,"maeMean":1.7000000000000002,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":6,"coverage":true,"width":6,"pitLower":0.075,"pitUpper":0.27,"empiricalMass":0.195,"logScore":1.6347557204183902},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":3.60755,"mean":7.35,"median":6,"bias":6.35,"maeMean":6.35,"maeMedian":5,"low":1,"high":18,"coverage":true,"width":17,"pitLower":0.02,"pitUpper":0.065,"empiricalMass":0.045,"logScore":3.101092789211817},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.3400000000000001,"mean":1.6,"median":1,"bias":0.6000000000000001,"maeMean":0.6000000000000001,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.22,"pitUpper":0.52,"empiricalMass":0.3,"logScore":1.2039728043259361},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.24732500000000002,"mean":0.975,"median":1,"bias":-0.025000000000000022,"maeMean":0.025000000000000022,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.41,"pitUpper":0.735,"empiricalMass":0.325,"logScore":1.1239300966523995},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.41127499999999995,"mean":0.935,"median":0,"bias":-0.06499999999999995,"maeMean":0.06499999999999995,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.57,"pitUpper":0.75,"empiricalMass":0.18,"logScore":1.7147984280919266}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.005,"1":0.045,"2":0.085,"3":0.075,"4":0.125,"5":0.125,"6":0.1,"7":0.05,"8":0.065,"9":0.085,"10":0.06,"11":0.04,"12":0.02,"13":0.05,"14":0.025,"16":0.01,"17":0.015,"19":0.01,"24":0.005,"33":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.075,"1":0.195,"2":0.25,"3":0.185,"4":0.145,"5":0.08,"6":0.045,"7":0.015,"9":0.005,"10":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.02,"1":0.045,"2":0.07,"3":0.105,"4":0.1,"5":0.12,"6":0.07,"7":0.095,"8":0.055,"9":0.06,"10":0.05,"11":0.03,"12":0.025,"13":0.02,"14":0.035,"15":0.015,"16":0.015,"17":0.015,"18":0.015,"19":0.01,"20":0.005,"21":0.005,"23":0.01,"28":0.005,"30":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.22,"1":0.3,"2":0.25,"3":0.14,"4":0.08,"6":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.41,"1":0.325,"2":0.175,"3":0.06,"4":0.03},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.57,"1":0.18,"2":0.12,"3":0.055,"4":0.04,"5":0.025,"6":0.005,"7":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1709596800000,"validUntil":1709683200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":3,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5645,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2024","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.31897500000000006,"mean":0.805,"median":1,"bias":0.805,"maeMean":0.805,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.475,"empiricalMass":0.475,"logScore":0.7444404749474959},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.09060000000000001,"mean":0.38,"median":0,"bias":0.38,"maeMean":0.38,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.71,"empiricalMass":0.71,"logScore":0.342490308946776},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.35605,"mean":0.95,"median":1,"bias":0.95,"maeMean":0.95,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.455,"empiricalMass":0.455,"logScore":0.7874578600311866},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.04635,"mean":0.23,"median":0,"bias":0.23,"maeMean":0.23,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.785,"empiricalMass":0.785,"logScore":0.24207156119972859},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.026225,"mean":0.185,"median":0,"bias":0.185,"maeMean":0.185,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.84,"empiricalMass":0.84,"logScore":0.1743533871447778},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.008199999999999999,"mean":0.1,"median":0,"bias":0.1,"maeMean":0.1,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.91,"empiricalMass":0.91,"logScore":0.09431067947124129}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.475,"1":0.325,"2":0.145,"3":0.04,"4":0.005,"5":0.01},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.71,"1":0.21,"2":0.07,"3":0.01},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.455,"1":0.325,"2":0.135,"3":0.035,"4":0.025,"5":0.01,"6":0.01,"8":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.785,"1":0.205,"2":0.005,"3":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.84,"1":0.135,"2":0.025},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.91,"1":0.08,"2":0.01}}},{"issuedAt":1709596800000,"validUntil":1709683200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5645,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2024","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.006425,"mean":0.085,"median":0,"bias":0.085,"maeMean":0.085,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.92,"empiricalMass":0.92,"logScore":0.08338160893905101},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.003025,"mean":0.055,"median":0,"bias":0.055,"maeMean":0.055,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.945,"empiricalMass":0.945,"logScore":0.05657035148839435},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.013650000000000023,"mean":0.14,"median":0,"bias":0.14,"maeMean":0.14,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.885,"empiricalMass":0.885,"logScore":0.12216763397420753},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.0006250000000000006,"mean":0.025,"median":0,"bias":0.025,"maeMean":0.025,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.975,"empiricalMass":0.975,"logScore":0.025317807984289897},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.00002499999999999985,"mean":0.005,"median":0,"bias":0.005,"maeMean":0.005,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.995,"empiricalMass":0.995,"logScore":0.005012541823544286},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.0006250000000000006,"mean":0.025,"median":0,"bias":0.025,"maeMean":0.025,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.975,"empiricalMass":0.975,"logScore":0.025317807984289897}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.92,"1":0.075,"2":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.945,"1":0.055},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.885,"1":0.095,"2":0.015,"3":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.975,"1":0.025},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.995,"1":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.975,"1":0.025}}},{"issuedAt":1709596800000,"validUntil":1710201600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":2,"actual":8,"trainingCount":5645,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2024","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":13.1749,"mean":29.51,"median":25,"bias":21.51,"maeMean":21.51,"maeMedian":17,"low":12,"high":62,"coverage":false,"width":50,"pitLower":0.005,"pitUpper":0.01,"empiricalMass":0.005,"logScore":5.298317366548036},"rollingETAS":{"crps":1.496575,"mean":10.775,"median":11,"bias":2.7750000000000004,"maeMean":2.7750000000000004,"maeMedian":3,"low":4,"high":18,"coverage":true,"width":14,"pitLower":0.205,"pitUpper":0.325,"empiricalMass":0.12,"logScore":2.120263536200091},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":11.54005,"mean":26.91,"median":24,"bias":18.91,"maeMean":18.91,"maeMedian":16,"low":11,"high":58,"coverage":false,"width":47,"pitLower":0.005,"pitUpper":0.01,"empiricalMass":0.005,"logScore":5.298317366548036},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":1.3538999999999999,"mean":10.5,"median":10,"bias":2.5,"maeMean":2.5,"maeMedian":2,"low":5,"high":16,"coverage":true,"width":11,"pitLower":0.17,"pitUpper":0.305,"empiricalMass":0.135,"logScore":2.0024805005437076},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.78315,"mean":7.57,"median":7,"bias":-0.4299999999999997,"maeMean":0.4299999999999997,"maeMedian":1,"low":3,"high":12,"coverage":true,"width":9,"pitLower":0.53,"pitUpper":0.65,"empiricalMass":0.12,"logScore":2.120263536200091},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":1.4158750000000002,"mean":7.595,"median":6,"bias":-0.40500000000000025,"maeMean":0.40500000000000025,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":18,"coverage":true,"width":18,"pitLower":0.585,"pitUpper":0.665,"empiricalMass":0.08,"logScore":2.5257286443082556}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"7":0.005,"8":0.005,"9":0.02,"11":0.015,"12":0.015,"13":0.025,"14":0.04,"15":0.015,"16":0.03,"17":0.035,"18":0.02,"19":0.055,"20":0.07,"21":0.015,"22":0.035,"23":0.045,"24":0.05,"25":0.02,"26":0.01,"27":0.02,"28":0.045,"29":0.03,"30":0.025,"31":0.03,"32":0.025,"33":0.025,"34":0.005,"35":0.015,"36":0.035,"37":0.005,"38":0.02,"39":0.005,"40":0.005,"41":0.01,"42":0.015,"43":0.005,"44":0.01,"45":0.02,"48":0.005,"49":0.01,"51":0.015,"52":0.015,"56":0.015,"57":0.005,"58":0.005,"62":0.005,"64":0.005,"66":0.005,"67":0.005,"74":0.005,"77":0.005,"80":0.005,"82":0.005,"86":0.005,"89":0.005,"110":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"2":0.005,"3":0.02,"4":0.025,"5":0.04,"6":0.06,"7":0.055,"8":0.12,"9":0.075,"10":0.095,"11":0.1,"12":0.135,"13":0.04,"14":0.06,"15":0.05,"16":0.03,"17":0.025,"18":0.02,"19":0.01,"20":0.015,"23":0.01,"25":0.005,"27":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"5":0.005,"8":0.005,"9":0.035,"11":0.02,"12":0.02,"13":0.025,"14":0.015,"15":0.02,"16":0.045,"17":0.08,"18":0.055,"19":0.07,"20":0.03,"21":0.02,"22":0.025,"23":0.025,"24":0.04,"25":0.03,"26":0.04,"27":0.025,"28":0.025,"29":0.03,"30":0.03,"31":0.02,"32":0.02,"33":0.005,"34":0.015,"35":0.02,"36":0.015,"37":0.015,"38":0.015,"39":0.02,"40":0.01,"41":0.005,"43":0.01,"45":0.015,"46":0.01,"47":0.01,"48":0.005,"53":0.005,"55":0.005,"56":0.01,"58":0.015,"61":0.01,"63":0.005,"64":0.005,"71":0.005,"82":0.005,"85":0.005,"86":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"3":0.01,"4":0.025,"5":0.025,"6":0.03,"7":0.08,"8":0.135,"9":0.085,"10":0.145,"11":0.105,"12":0.12,"13":0.07,"14":0.05,"15":0.045,"16":0.03,"17":0.005,"18":0.015,"19":0.01,"20":0.01,"21":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"1":0.005,"2":0.015,"3":0.05,"4":0.075,"5":0.145,"6":0.095,"7":0.145,"8":0.12,"9":0.09,"10":0.065,"11":0.085,"12":0.06,"13":0.025,"14":0.015,"16":0.005,"17":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.055,"1":0.04,"2":0.08,"3":0.095,"4":0.085,"5":0.09,"6":0.06,"7":0.08,"8":0.08,"9":0.07,"10":0.035,"11":0.025,"12":0.04,"13":0.025,"14":0.015,"15":0.015,"16":0.015,"17":0.02,"18":0.025,"20":0.005,"22":0.005,"23":0.015,"24":0.005,"25":0.005,"28":0.01,"31":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1709596800000,"validUntil":1710201600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":3,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5645,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2024","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":1.9411,"mean":3.62,"median":3,"bias":3.62,"maeMean":3.62,"maeMedian":3,"low":0,"high":10,"coverage":true,"width":10,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.105,"empiricalMass":0.105,"logScore":2.2537949288246137},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.5984250000000001,"mean":1.235,"median":1,"bias":1.235,"maeMean":1.235,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.34,"empiricalMass":0.34,"logScore":1.0788096613719298},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":1.7463,"mean":3.13,"median":3,"bias":3.13,"maeMean":3.13,"maeMedian":3,"low":0,"high":8,"coverage":true,"width":8,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.105,"empiricalMass":0.105,"logScore":2.2537949288246137},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.6559,"mean":1.32,"median":1,"bias":1.32,"maeMean":1.32,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.31,"empiricalMass":0.31,"logScore":1.171182981502945},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.5313000000000001,"mean":1.11,"median":1,"bias":1.11,"maeMean":1.11,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.345,"empiricalMass":0.345,"logScore":1.0642108619507773},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.39695,"mean":1.06,"median":1,"bias":1.06,"maeMean":1.06,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.445,"empiricalMass":0.445,"logScore":0.8096809968158968}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.105,"1":0.185,"2":0.175,"3":0.14,"4":0.105,"5":0.07,"6":0.04,"7":0.06,"8":0.035,"9":0.02,"10":0.03,"11":0.01,"12":0.005,"14":0.005,"15":0.005,"16":0.01},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.34,"1":0.285,"2":0.235,"3":0.09,"4":0.04,"5":0.01},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.105,"1":0.205,"2":0.18,"3":0.18,"4":0.095,"5":0.085,"6":0.04,"7":0.03,"8":0.03,"9":0.02,"10":0.01,"11":0.015,"17":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.31,"1":0.3,"2":0.235,"3":0.1,"4":0.03,"5":0.02,"6":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.345,"1":0.36,"2":0.18,"3":0.07,"4":0.045},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.445,"1":0.295,"2":0.135,"3":0.06,"4":0.03,"5":0.02,"6":0.01,"7":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1709596800000,"validUntil":1710201600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5645,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2024","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.085625,"mean":0.435,"median":0,"bias":0.435,"maeMean":0.435,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.73,"empiricalMass":0.73,"logScore":0.31471074483970024},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.013325000000000004,"mean":0.125,"median":0,"bias":0.125,"maeMean":0.125,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.885,"empiricalMass":0.885,"logScore":0.12216763397420753},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.08697500000000002,"mean":0.395,"median":0,"bias":0.395,"maeMean":0.395,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.715,"empiricalMass":0.715,"logScore":0.33547273628812946},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.04092499999999999,"mean":0.235,"median":0,"bias":0.235,"maeMean":0.235,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.8,"empiricalMass":0.8,"logScore":0.2231435513142097},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.018250000000000016,"mean":0.14,"median":0,"bias":0.14,"maeMean":0.14,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.865,"empiricalMass":0.865,"logScore":0.14502577205025774},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.017299999999999982,"mean":0.15,"median":0,"bias":0.15,"maeMean":0.15,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.87,"empiricalMass":0.87,"logScore":0.13926206733350766}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.73,"1":0.17,"2":0.05,"3":0.035,"4":0.015},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.885,"1":0.105,"2":0.01},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.715,"1":0.215,"2":0.045,"3":0.01,"4":0.015},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.8,"1":0.17,"2":0.025,"3":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.865,"1":0.13,"2":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.87,"1":0.11,"2":0.02}}},{"issuedAt":1709596800000,"validUntil":1712188800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":2,"actual":48,"trainingCount":5645,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2024","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":18.8402,"mean":83.57,"median":74,"bias":35.56999999999999,"maeMean":35.56999999999999,"maeMedian":26,"low":44,"high":141,"coverage":true,"width":97,"pitLower":0.075,"pitUpper":0.075,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"rollingETAS":{"crps":8.59185,"mean":35.56,"median":34,"bias":-12.439999999999998,"maeMean":12.439999999999998,"maeMedian":14,"low":22,"high":52,"coverage":true,"width":30,"pitLower":0.91,"pitUpper":0.915,"empiricalMass":0.005,"logScore":5.298317366548036},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":20.780725,"mean":86.005,"median":81,"bias":38.004999999999995,"maeMean":38.004999999999995,"maeMedian":33,"low":43,"high":145,"coverage":true,"width":102,"pitLower":0.095,"pitUpper":0.1,"empiricalMass":0.005,"logScore":5.298317366548036},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":1.9285250000000005,"mean":45.765,"median":46,"bias":-2.2349999999999994,"maeMean":2.2349999999999994,"maeMedian":2,"low":34,"high":60,"coverage":true,"width":26,"pitLower":0.62,"pitUpper":0.685,"empiricalMass":0.065,"logScore":2.7333680090865},"recentPoisson":{"crps":12.675225,"mean":32.115,"median":32,"bias":-15.884999999999998,"maeMean":15.884999999999998,"maeMedian":16,"low":21,"high":41,"coverage":false,"width":20,"pitLower":0.99,"pitUpper":0.995,"empiricalMass":0.005,"logScore":5.298317366548036},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":9.63365,"mean":34.2,"median":31,"bias":-13.799999999999997,"maeMean":13.799999999999997,"maeMedian":17,"low":9,"high":71,"coverage":true,"width":62,"pitLower":0.76,"pitUpper":0.775,"empiricalMass":0.015,"logScore":4.199705077879927}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"33":0.005,"35":0.01,"39":0.01,"41":0.005,"42":0.005,"43":0.005,"44":0.01,"45":0.01,"46":0.01,"47":0.005,"49":0.005,"50":0.015,"51":0.02,"52":0.005,"53":0.02,"54":0.005,"55":0.03,"56":0.015,"57":0.025,"58":0.005,"59":0.015,"60":0.015,"61":0.025,"62":0.02,"63":0.02,"64":0.035,"65":0.015,"66":0.005,"67":0.025,"68":0.015,"69":0.02,"70":0.01,"72":0.025,"73":0.025,"74":0.015,"75":0.005,"76":0.01,"77":0.01,"78":0.025,"79":0.02,"80":0.01,"81":0.005,"82":0.005,"83":0.015,"84":0.01,"85":0.005,"86":0.005,"87":0.02,"89":0.01,"90":0.015,"91":0.01,"92":0.005,"93":0.005,"95":0.005,"96":0.01,"98":0.01,"99":0.005,"100":0.01,"101":0.005,"102":0.005,"103":0.01,"104":0.01,"105":0.02,"106":0.01,"107":0.005,"108":0.01,"109":0.005,"110":0.015,"111":0.005,"112":0.015,"113":0.01,"115":0.005,"118":0.005,"120":0.005,"122":0.005,"124":0.005,"129":0.005,"131":0.005,"132":0.005,"133":0.01,"135":0.005,"136":0.005,"137":0.005,"138":0.01,"140":0.01,"141":0.005,"143":0.005,"145":0.005,"147":0.01,"152":0.005,"157":0.005,"177":0.005,"205":0.005,"233":0.005,"260":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"16":0.005,"19":0.02,"20":0.005,"21":0.005,"22":0.03,"23":0.005,"24":0.015,"25":0.005,"26":0.045,"27":0.035,"28":0.02,"29":0.03,"30":0.07,"31":0.075,"32":0.075,"33":0.055,"34":0.06,"35":0.025,"36":0.025,"37":0.025,"38":0.04,"39":0.03,"40":0.03,"41":0.015,"42":0.025,"43":0.04,"44":0.03,"45":0.03,"46":0.01,"47":0.03,"48":0.005,"49":0.005,"50":0.015,"51":0.01,"52":0.005,"53":0.01,"55":0.02,"58":0.005,"59":0.005,"67":0.005,"68":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"32":0.005,"33":0.005,"34":0.005,"41":0.02,"42":0.01,"43":0.01,"45":0.02,"46":0.02,"48":0.005,"51":0.01,"52":0.02,"53":0.01,"54":0.005,"55":0.005,"56":0.005,"57":0.01,"58":0.02,"59":0.015,"60":0.02,"61":0.02,"62":0.015,"63":0.02,"64":0.01,"65":0.015,"66":0.025,"67":0.015,"68":0.01,"69":0.03,"70":0.025,"71":0.005,"72":0.025,"74":0.025,"75":0.005,"76":0.01,"77":0.01,"78":0.01,"81":0.015,"82":0.015,"83":0.01,"84":0.015,"85":0.02,"86":0.025,"87":0.02,"88":0.01,"89":0.015,"90":0.01,"91":0.015,"92":0.005,"93":0.005,"94":0.015,"95":0.01,"96":0.015,"98":0.01,"99":0.015,"100":0.01,"101":0.005,"102":0.005,"104":0.01,"105":0.005,"106":0.01,"107":0.01,"109":0.005,"111":0.005,"112":0.01,"114":0.015,"115":0.01,"118":0.01,"119":0.005,"120":0.005,"121":0.01,"123":0.01,"124":0.005,"125":0.01,"126":0.01,"127":0.005,"129":0.005,"130":0.005,"131":0.005,"137":0.005,"138":0.005,"144":0.01,"145":0.005,"148":0.005,"161":0.005,"162":0.005,"174":0.01,"193":0.005,"200":0.005,"214":0.005,"231":0.005,"250":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"31":0.015,"32":0.015,"33":0.01,"34":0.015,"35":0.01,"36":0.035,"37":0.045,"38":0.02,"39":0.025,"40":0.045,"41":0.035,"42":0.05,"43":0.045,"44":0.08,"45":0.05,"46":0.065,"47":0.06,"48":0.065,"49":0.07,"50":0.045,"51":0.02,"52":0.025,"53":0.025,"54":0.005,"55":0.03,"56":0.01,"57":0.02,"58":0.01,"60":0.01,"61":0.015,"62":0.005,"63":0.005,"64":0.005,"67":0.01,"69":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"18":0.005,"19":0.01,"20":0.01,"21":0.025,"22":0.015,"23":0.015,"24":0.03,"25":0.02,"26":0.01,"27":0.05,"28":0.045,"29":0.07,"30":0.07,"31":0.075,"32":0.075,"33":0.07,"34":0.07,"35":0.095,"36":0.04,"37":0.05,"38":0.045,"39":0.01,"40":0.015,"41":0.035,"43":0.015,"44":0.005,"46":0.005,"47":0.01,"48":0.005,"49":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"2":0.005,"3":0.005,"5":0.01,"6":0.005,"7":0.01,"8":0.005,"9":0.01,"10":0.02,"11":0.01,"12":0.025,"13":0.03,"14":0.03,"15":0.02,"16":0.015,"17":0.03,"18":0.025,"19":0.02,"20":0.025,"21":0.04,"22":0.025,"23":0.015,"24":0.015,"25":0.015,"26":0.03,"28":0.02,"29":0.015,"31":0.03,"32":0.015,"33":0.02,"34":0.01,"35":0.02,"36":0.025,"37":0.02,"38":0.005,"39":0.02,"40":0.01,"41":0.025,"42":0.02,"43":0.01,"44":0.02,"45":0.015,"46":0.005,"47":0.015,"48":0.015,"49":0.015,"50":0.025,"51":0.01,"53":0.02,"54":0.01,"57":0.02,"58":0.005,"59":0.015,"60":0.01,"61":0.01,"62":0.005,"65":0.01,"66":0.005,"69":0.01,"71":0.005,"72":0.005,"75":0.005,"78":0.005,"79":0.005,"81":0.005,"86":0.005,"88":0.005,"93":0.005,"96":0.005,"106":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1709596800000,"validUntil":1712188800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":3,"actual":10,"trainingCount":5645,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2024","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":1.5153249999999998,"mean":9.695,"median":8.5,"bias":-0.3049999999999997,"maeMean":0.3049999999999997,"maeMedian":1.5,"low":2,"high":22,"coverage":true,"width":20,"pitLower":0.6,"pitUpper":0.625,"empiricalMass":0.025,"logScore":3.6888794541139363},"rollingETAS":{"crps":4.421425,"mean":4.305,"median":4,"bias":-5.695,"maeMean":5.695,"maeMedian":6,"low":1,"high":9,"coverage":false,"width":8,"pitLower":0.965,"pitUpper":0.98,"empiricalMass":0.015,"logScore":4.199705077879927},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":1.1425999999999998,"mean":10.69,"median":10,"bias":0.6899999999999995,"maeMean":0.6899999999999995,"maeMedian":0,"low":3,"high":22,"coverage":true,"width":19,"pitLower":0.485,"pitUpper":0.595,"empiricalMass":0.11,"logScore":2.2072749131897207},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":2.6823750000000004,"mean":6.285,"median":6,"bias":-3.715,"maeMean":3.715,"maeMedian":4,"low":3,"high":11,"coverage":true,"width":8,"pitLower":0.915,"pitUpper":0.945,"empiricalMass":0.03,"logScore":3.506557897319982},"recentPoisson":{"crps":3.8989249999999998,"mean":4.905,"median":5,"bias":-5.095,"maeMean":5.095,"maeMedian":5,"low":2,"high":9,"coverage":false,"width":7,"pitLower":0.965,"pitUpper":0.985,"empiricalMass":0.02,"logScore":3.912023005428146},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":3.9684500000000003,"mean":4.54,"median":4,"bias":-5.46,"maeMean":5.46,"maeMedian":6,"low":0,"high":12,"coverage":true,"width":12,"pitLower":0.895,"pitUpper":0.925,"empiricalMass":0.03,"logScore":3.506557897319982}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"1":0.02,"2":0.03,"3":0.055,"4":0.085,"5":0.09,"6":0.07,"7":0.085,"8":0.065,"9":0.1,"10":0.025,"11":0.065,"12":0.035,"13":0.065,"14":0.025,"15":0.035,"16":0.025,"17":0.03,"18":0.01,"19":0.015,"21":0.005,"22":0.015,"23":0.005,"24":0.02,"25":0.01,"26":0.005,"33":0.005,"34":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.035,"1":0.08,"2":0.105,"3":0.2,"4":0.19,"5":0.095,"6":0.13,"7":0.07,"8":0.025,"9":0.035,"10":0.015,"11":0.005,"12":0.01,"14":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.005,"1":0.01,"2":0.02,"3":0.015,"4":0.065,"5":0.06,"6":0.055,"7":0.09,"8":0.08,"9":0.085,"10":0.11,"11":0.055,"12":0.07,"13":0.05,"14":0.035,"15":0.035,"16":0.025,"17":0.025,"18":0.025,"19":0.005,"20":0.015,"21":0.005,"22":0.01,"23":0.015,"28":0.01,"29":0.005,"32":0.005,"33":0.005,"36":0.005,"38":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.005,"2":0.025,"3":0.08,"4":0.115,"5":0.165,"6":0.17,"7":0.19,"8":0.115,"9":0.05,"10":0.03,"11":0.025,"12":0.005,"13":0.005,"14":0.01,"15":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"1":0.035,"2":0.09,"3":0.165,"4":0.195,"5":0.16,"6":0.13,"7":0.08,"8":0.085,"9":0.025,"10":0.02,"11":0.01,"12":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.09,"1":0.13,"2":0.185,"3":0.085,"4":0.105,"5":0.09,"6":0.045,"7":0.055,"8":0.065,"9":0.045,"10":0.03,"11":0.015,"12":0.025,"13":0.015,"14":0.005,"16":0.005,"22":0.005,"23":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1709596800000,"validUntil":1712188800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":4,"actual":1,"trainingCount":5645,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2024","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.3035,"mean":1.26,"median":1,"bias":0.26,"maeMean":0.26,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.395,"pitUpper":0.675,"empiricalMass":0.28,"logScore":1.2729656758128873},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.428625,"mean":0.455,"median":0,"bias":-0.5449999999999999,"maeMean":0.5449999999999999,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.65,"pitUpper":0.925,"empiricalMass":0.275,"logScore":1.2909841813155656},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.33662500000000006,"mean":1.255,"median":1,"bias":0.2549999999999999,"maeMean":0.2549999999999999,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.44,"pitUpper":0.685,"empiricalMass":0.245,"logScore":1.40649706843741},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.2052,"mean":0.82,"median":1,"bias":-0.18000000000000005,"maeMean":0.18000000000000005,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.41,"pitUpper":0.81,"empiricalMass":0.4,"logScore":0.916290731874155},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.29734999999999995,"mean":0.67,"median":0,"bias":-0.32999999999999996,"maeMean":0.32999999999999996,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.525,"pitUpper":0.86,"empiricalMass":0.335,"logScore":1.0936247471570706},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.312175,"mean":0.805,"median":0,"bias":-0.19499999999999995,"maeMean":0.19499999999999995,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.515,"pitUpper":0.8,"empiricalMass":0.285,"logScore":1.2552660987134867}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.395,"1":0.28,"2":0.15,"3":0.085,"4":0.035,"5":0.045,"6":0.01},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.65,"1":0.275,"2":0.055,"3":0.01,"4":0.01},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.44,"1":0.245,"2":0.14,"3":0.08,"4":0.04,"5":0.025,"6":0.02,"8":0.005,"9":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.41,"1":0.4,"2":0.16,"3":0.02,"4":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.525,"1":0.335,"2":0.095,"3":0.035,"4":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.515,"1":0.285,"2":0.13,"3":0.025,"4":0.04,"5":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1712188800000,"validUntil":1712275200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":2,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5693,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2024","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.856125,"mean":1.975,"median":1,"bias":1.975,"maeMean":1.975,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":6,"coverage":true,"width":6,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.27,"empiricalMass":0.27,"logScore":1.3093333199837622},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.390425,"mean":1.095,"median":1,"bias":1.095,"maeMean":1.095,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.445,"empiricalMass":0.445,"logScore":0.8096809968158968},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.7289999999999999,"mean":1.96,"median":1,"bias":1.96,"maeMean":1.96,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":6,"coverage":true,"width":6,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.32,"empiricalMass":0.32,"logScore":1.1394342831883648},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.8451,"mean":1.51,"median":1,"bias":1.51,"maeMean":1.51,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.22,"empiricalMass":0.22,"logScore":1.5141277326297755},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.518925,"mean":1.035,"median":1,"bias":1.035,"maeMean":1.035,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.35,"empiricalMass":0.35,"logScore":1.0498221244986778},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.3661249999999999,"mean":1.265,"median":0,"bias":1.265,"maeMean":1.265,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.51,"empiricalMass":0.51,"logScore":0.6733445532637656}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.27,"1":0.275,"2":0.19,"3":0.11,"4":0.055,"5":0.02,"6":0.03,"7":0.02,"10":0.02,"12":0.005,"18":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.445,"1":0.31,"2":0.125,"3":0.05,"4":0.025,"5":0.025,"7":0.005,"8":0.01,"9":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.32,"1":0.28,"2":0.145,"3":0.12,"4":0.025,"5":0.05,"6":0.01,"7":0.01,"8":0.005,"9":0.01,"11":0.01,"13":0.005,"14":0.005,"35":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.22,"1":0.345,"2":0.225,"3":0.155,"4":0.04,"5":0.005,"6":0.005,"7":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.35,"1":0.35,"2":0.22,"3":0.075,"4":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.51,"1":0.205,"2":0.12,"3":0.065,"4":0.035,"5":0.025,"6":0.015,"7":0.005,"8":0.01,"15":0.005,"16":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1712188800000,"validUntil":1712275200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":3,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5693,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2024","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.03315000000000001,"mean":0.23,"median":0,"bias":0.23,"maeMean":0.23,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.825,"empiricalMass":0.825,"logScore":0.19237189264745613},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.010349999999999998,"mean":0.15,"median":0,"bias":0.15,"maeMean":0.15,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.905,"empiricalMass":0.905,"logScore":0.0998203352822109},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.020850000000000007,"mean":0.2,"median":0,"bias":0.2,"maeMean":0.2,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.865,"empiricalMass":0.865,"logScore":0.14502577205025774},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.03084999999999999,"mean":0.19,"median":0,"bias":0.19,"maeMean":0.19,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.825,"empiricalMass":0.825,"logScore":0.19237189264745613},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.02762500000000001,"mean":0.185,"median":0,"bias":0.185,"maeMean":0.185,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.835,"empiricalMass":0.835,"logScore":0.18032355413128162},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.020824999999999982,"mean":0.175,"median":0,"bias":0.175,"maeMean":0.175,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.86,"empiricalMass":0.86,"logScore":0.15082288973458366}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.825,"1":0.125,"2":0.045,"3":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.905,"1":0.065,"2":0.01,"3":0.015,"4":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.865,"1":0.085,"2":0.04,"3":0.005,"4":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.825,"1":0.16,"2":0.015},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.835,"1":0.145,"2":0.02},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.86,"1":0.105,"2":0.035}}},{"issuedAt":1712188800000,"validUntil":1712275200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5693,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2024","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.0006250000000000006,"mean":0.025,"median":0,"bias":0.025,"maeMean":0.025,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.975,"empiricalMass":0.975,"logScore":0.025317807984289897},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.0010249999999999981,"mean":0.045,"median":0,"bias":0.045,"maeMean":0.045,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.97,"empiricalMass":0.97,"logScore":0.030459207484708574},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.00042500000000000177,"mean":0.025,"median":0,"bias":0.025,"maeMean":0.025,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.98,"empiricalMass":0.98,"logScore":0.020202707317519466},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.0006250000000000006,"mean":0.025,"median":0,"bias":0.025,"maeMean":0.025,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.975,"empiricalMass":0.975,"logScore":0.025317807984289897},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.0000999999999999994,"mean":0.01,"median":0,"bias":0.01,"maeMean":0.01,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.99,"empiricalMass":0.99,"logScore":0.01005033585350145},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.00040000000000000105,"mean":0.02,"median":0,"bias":0.02,"maeMean":0.02,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.98,"empiricalMass":0.98,"logScore":0.020202707317519466}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.975,"1":0.025},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.97,"1":0.02,"2":0.005,"3":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.98,"1":0.015,"2":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.975,"1":0.025},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.99,"1":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.98,"1":0.02}}},{"issuedAt":1712188800000,"validUntil":1712793600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":2,"actual":8,"trainingCount":5693,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2024","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":2.6218250000000003,"mean":14.445,"median":11.5,"bias":6.445,"maeMean":6.445,"maeMedian":3.5,"low":3,"high":36,"coverage":true,"width":33,"pitLower":0.225,"pitUpper":0.28,"empiricalMass":0.055,"logScore":2.900422093749666},"rollingETAS":{"crps":1.1342750000000001,"mean":6.955,"median":6,"bias":-1.045,"maeMean":1.045,"maeMedian":2,"low":2,"high":13,"coverage":true,"width":11,"pitLower":0.635,"pitUpper":0.715,"empiricalMass":0.08,"logScore":2.5257286443082556},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":2.235475,"mean":13.765,"median":11,"bias":5.765000000000001,"maeMean":5.765000000000001,"maeMedian":3,"low":3,"high":29,"coverage":true,"width":26,"pitLower":0.22,"pitUpper":0.27,"empiricalMass":0.05,"logScore":2.995732273553991},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":1.1039,"mean":9.99,"median":10,"bias":1.9900000000000002,"maeMean":1.9900000000000002,"maeMedian":2,"low":5,"high":15,"coverage":true,"width":10,"pitLower":0.215,"pitUpper":0.35,"empiricalMass":0.135,"logScore":2.0024805005437076},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.71235,"mean":7.97,"median":8,"bias":-0.03000000000000025,"maeMean":0.03000000000000025,"maeMedian":0,"low":4,"high":13,"coverage":true,"width":9,"pitLower":0.465,"pitUpper":0.585,"empiricalMass":0.12,"logScore":2.120263536200091},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":1.6146250000000006,"mean":7.735,"median":6,"bias":-0.2649999999999997,"maeMean":0.2649999999999997,"maeMedian":2,"low":1,"high":21,"coverage":true,"width":20,"pitLower":0.6,"pitUpper":0.645,"empiricalMass":0.045,"logScore":3.101092789211817}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"2":0.025,"3":0.03,"4":0.045,"5":0.04,"6":0.045,"7":0.04,"8":0.055,"9":0.06,"10":0.09,"11":0.07,"12":0.085,"13":0.045,"14":0.035,"15":0.035,"16":0.02,"17":0.03,"18":0.015,"19":0.025,"20":0.015,"21":0.02,"22":0.02,"23":0.015,"24":0.01,"25":0.015,"26":0.005,"27":0.01,"28":0.01,"29":0.005,"30":0.01,"31":0.01,"33":0.005,"34":0.005,"36":0.005,"37":0.005,"40":0.005,"41":0.005,"44":0.005,"47":0.005,"48":0.01,"55":0.005,"63":0.005,"69":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"1":0.01,"2":0.05,"3":0.095,"4":0.13,"5":0.12,"6":0.14,"7":0.09,"8":0.08,"9":0.08,"10":0.075,"11":0.025,"12":0.04,"13":0.025,"14":0.005,"15":0.005,"16":0.015,"23":0.005,"25":0.005,"31":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"1":0.01,"2":0.01,"3":0.04,"4":0.015,"5":0.025,"6":0.055,"7":0.065,"8":0.05,"9":0.095,"10":0.11,"11":0.085,"12":0.06,"13":0.04,"14":0.03,"15":0.035,"16":0.025,"17":0.02,"18":0.025,"19":0.01,"20":0.025,"21":0.04,"22":0.025,"23":0.005,"24":0.015,"25":0.005,"26":0.01,"27":0.005,"28":0.005,"29":0.015,"30":0.01,"32":0.005,"34":0.005,"37":0.005,"43":0.005,"67":0.005,"71":0.005,"122":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"4":0.01,"5":0.06,"6":0.055,"7":0.09,"8":0.135,"9":0.11,"10":0.115,"11":0.145,"12":0.08,"13":0.08,"14":0.045,"15":0.03,"16":0.01,"17":0.015,"18":0.005,"19":0.01,"20":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"1":0.005,"3":0.03,"4":0.065,"5":0.13,"6":0.1,"7":0.135,"8":0.12,"9":0.12,"10":0.08,"11":0.105,"12":0.045,"13":0.03,"14":0.03,"15":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.04,"1":0.06,"2":0.09,"3":0.085,"4":0.08,"5":0.095,"6":0.1,"7":0.05,"8":0.045,"9":0.03,"10":0.055,"11":0.025,"12":0.04,"13":0.015,"14":0.055,"15":0.02,"16":0.025,"17":0.015,"18":0.015,"19":0.005,"21":0.025,"23":0.005,"24":0.01,"25":0.01,"29":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1712188800000,"validUntil":1712793600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":3,"actual":1,"trainingCount":5693,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2024","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.35639999999999983,"mean":1.82,"median":1,"bias":0.8200000000000001,"maeMean":0.8200000000000001,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":6,"coverage":true,"width":6,"pitLower":0.285,"pitUpper":0.59,"empiricalMass":0.305,"logScore":1.1874435023747254},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.290775,"mean":0.825,"median":1,"bias":-0.17500000000000004,"maeMean":0.17500000000000004,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.49,"pitUpper":0.79,"empiricalMass":0.3,"logScore":1.2039728043259361},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.3429749999999999,"mean":1.735,"median":1,"bias":0.7350000000000001,"maeMean":0.7350000000000001,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.295,"pitUpper":0.56,"empiricalMass":0.265,"logScore":1.3280254529959148},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.2845249999999999,"mean":1.445,"median":1,"bias":0.44500000000000006,"maeMean":0.44500000000000006,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.255,"pitUpper":0.575,"empiricalMass":0.32,"logScore":1.1394342831883648},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.22197499999999992,"mean":1.295,"median":1,"bias":0.29499999999999993,"maeMean":0.29499999999999993,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.265,"pitUpper":0.645,"empiricalMass":0.38,"logScore":0.9675840262617056},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.32740000000000014,"mean":1.34,"median":1,"bias":0.3400000000000001,"maeMean":0.3400000000000001,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.39,"pitUpper":0.65,"empiricalMass":0.26,"logScore":1.3470736479666092}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.285,"1":0.305,"2":0.15,"3":0.115,"4":0.045,"5":0.04,"6":0.01,"7":0.01,"8":0.015,"9":0.015,"10":0.005,"11":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.49,"1":0.3,"2":0.13,"3":0.07,"4":0.005,"7":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.295,"1":0.265,"2":0.245,"3":0.07,"4":0.055,"5":0.035,"6":0.01,"8":0.005,"10":0.01,"13":0.005,"22":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.255,"1":0.32,"2":0.24,"3":0.12,"4":0.045,"5":0.015,"6":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.265,"1":0.38,"2":0.2,"3":0.115,"4":0.03,"5":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.39,"1":0.26,"2":0.16,"3":0.07,"4":0.075,"5":0.03,"6":0.01,"8":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1712188800000,"validUntil":1712793600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5693,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2024","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.03494999999999998,"mean":0.24,"median":0,"bias":0.24,"maeMean":0.24,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.82,"empiricalMass":0.82,"logScore":0.19845093872383832},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.0038750000000000034,"mean":0.085,"median":0,"bias":0.085,"maeMean":0.085,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.94,"empiricalMass":0.94,"logScore":0.06187540371808753},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.020824999999999982,"mean":0.205,"median":0,"bias":0.205,"maeMean":0.205,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.86,"empiricalMass":0.86,"logScore":0.15082288973458366},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.040124999999999994,"mean":0.215,"median":0,"bias":0.215,"maeMean":0.215,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.8,"empiricalMass":0.8,"logScore":0.2231435513142097},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.017299999999999982,"mean":0.15,"median":0,"bias":0.15,"maeMean":0.15,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.87,"empiricalMass":0.87,"logScore":0.13926206733350766},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.01832499999999998,"mean":0.145,"median":0,"bias":0.145,"maeMean":0.145,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.865,"empiricalMass":0.865,"logScore":0.14502577205025774}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.82,"1":0.13,"2":0.045,"4":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.94,"1":0.045,"2":0.01,"4":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.86,"1":0.11,"2":0.015,"3":0.01,"7":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.8,"1":0.19,"2":0.005,"3":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.87,"1":0.11,"2":0.02},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.865,"1":0.125,"2":0.01}}},{"issuedAt":1712188800000,"validUntil":1714780800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":2,"actual":20,"trainingCount":5693,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2024","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":28.5409,"mean":63.99,"median":55,"bias":43.99,"maeMean":43.99,"maeMedian":35,"low":31,"high":123,"coverage":false,"width":92,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.005,"empiricalMass":0.005,"logScore":5.298317366548036},"rollingETAS":{"crps":5.555375000000001,"mean":29.575,"median":29,"bias":9.575,"maeMean":9.575,"maeMedian":9,"low":18,"high":44,"coverage":true,"width":26,"pitLower":0.095,"pitUpper":0.105,"empiricalMass":0.01,"logScore":4.605170185988091},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":27.621699999999997,"mean":61.7,"median":58,"bias":41.7,"maeMean":41.7,"maeMedian":38,"low":28,"high":112,"coverage":false,"width":84,"pitLower":0.01,"pitUpper":0.01,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":21.437725,"mean":45.085,"median":45,"bias":25.085,"maeMean":25.085,"maeMedian":25,"low":35,"high":56,"coverage":false,"width":21,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentPoisson":{"crps":10.5629,"mean":34.03,"median":34,"bias":14.030000000000001,"maeMean":14.030000000000001,"maeMedian":14,"low":24,"high":44,"coverage":false,"width":20,"pitLower":0.005,"pitUpper":0.005,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":6.779025000000001,"mean":34.905,"median":30,"bias":14.905000000000001,"maeMean":14.905000000000001,"maeMedian":10,"low":10,"high":78,"coverage":true,"width":68,"pitLower":0.215,"pitUpper":0.24,"empiricalMass":0.025,"logScore":3.6888794541139363}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"20":0.005,"22":0.01,"23":0.005,"25":0.01,"28":0.01,"29":0.005,"31":0.015,"32":0.015,"33":0.005,"34":0.005,"35":0.01,"36":0.01,"37":0.01,"38":0.025,"39":0.02,"40":0.025,"41":0.01,"42":0.01,"43":0.015,"44":0.01,"45":0.025,"46":0.005,"47":0.03,"48":0.025,"49":0.035,"50":0.02,"51":0.035,"52":0.025,"53":0.02,"54":0.025,"55":0.035,"56":0.01,"57":0.025,"58":0.02,"59":0.015,"60":0.005,"61":0.015,"62":0.015,"63":0.02,"64":0.02,"65":0.02,"67":0.01,"68":0.02,"70":0.005,"71":0.01,"72":0.005,"73":0.005,"74":0.005,"75":0.02,"76":0.005,"77":0.01,"78":0.01,"80":0.005,"81":0.005,"82":0.02,"83":0.015,"86":0.01,"87":0.01,"88":0.01,"90":0.01,"91":0.01,"93":0.005,"94":0.01,"97":0.005,"99":0.005,"101":0.005,"104":0.005,"105":0.005,"106":0.005,"110":0.005,"114":0.005,"115":0.005,"117":0.005,"118":0.005,"123":0.005,"124":0.01,"129":0.005,"132":0.005,"148":0.005,"150":0.005,"180":0.005,"188":0.005,"219":0.005,"223":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"12":0.005,"15":0.015,"16":0.005,"17":0.015,"18":0.02,"19":0.035,"20":0.01,"21":0.05,"22":0.035,"23":0.04,"24":0.055,"25":0.035,"26":0.065,"27":0.06,"28":0.035,"29":0.065,"30":0.065,"31":0.045,"32":0.045,"33":0.035,"34":0.02,"35":0.035,"36":0.035,"37":0.03,"38":0.03,"39":0.015,"40":0.015,"41":0.015,"42":0.01,"43":0.005,"44":0.01,"45":0.01,"46":0.005,"47":0.005,"51":0.005,"55":0.005,"60":0.01,"69":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"14":0.005,"17":0.005,"22":0.005,"23":0.005,"24":0.005,"26":0.01,"27":0.01,"28":0.005,"29":0.01,"30":0.005,"31":0.02,"32":0.005,"33":0.015,"34":0.015,"35":0.005,"36":0.005,"37":0.01,"38":0.02,"39":0.03,"40":0.01,"41":0.04,"42":0.01,"43":0.015,"44":0.025,"45":0.015,"46":0.025,"47":0.01,"48":0.01,"49":0.025,"50":0.005,"51":0.01,"52":0.015,"53":0.01,"54":0.015,"55":0.02,"56":0.015,"57":0.025,"58":0.025,"59":0.025,"60":0.015,"62":0.02,"63":0.035,"64":0.025,"65":0.01,"66":0.025,"67":0.015,"68":0.01,"69":0.015,"71":0.005,"72":0.005,"73":0.005,"74":0.005,"75":0.025,"76":0.01,"77":0.005,"78":0.03,"80":0.025,"81":0.005,"82":0.02,"84":0.015,"85":0.005,"86":0.015,"87":0.005,"92":0.005,"94":0.005,"95":0.01,"96":0.005,"98":0.005,"99":0.005,"101":0.015,"107":0.005,"112":0.005,"114":0.005,"116":0.005,"119":0.005,"138":0.005,"141":0.005,"146":0.01,"158":0.005,"167":0.005,"173":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"30":0.015,"33":0.005,"34":0.015,"35":0.02,"36":0.03,"37":0.025,"38":0.04,"39":0.045,"40":0.065,"41":0.07,"42":0.035,"43":0.075,"44":0.03,"45":0.06,"46":0.07,"47":0.075,"48":0.035,"49":0.03,"50":0.05,"51":0.055,"52":0.035,"53":0.02,"54":0.01,"55":0.025,"56":0.015,"57":0.015,"58":0.01,"60":0.01,"61":0.01,"63":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"18":0.005,"21":0.005,"22":0.005,"23":0.01,"24":0.045,"25":0.04,"26":0.025,"27":0.035,"28":0.025,"29":0.03,"30":0.04,"31":0.075,"32":0.055,"33":0.06,"34":0.06,"35":0.09,"36":0.07,"37":0.065,"38":0.05,"39":0.035,"40":0.03,"41":0.035,"42":0.02,"43":0.025,"44":0.015,"45":0.01,"46":0.015,"47":0.01,"49":0.005,"52":0.005,"56":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"4":0.005,"6":0.005,"7":0.015,"9":0.02,"10":0.005,"11":0.015,"12":0.025,"13":0.015,"14":0.01,"16":0.02,"17":0.025,"18":0.035,"19":0.02,"20":0.025,"21":0.025,"22":0.025,"23":0.015,"24":0.045,"25":0.01,"26":0.05,"27":0.03,"28":0.02,"29":0.035,"30":0.03,"31":0.03,"32":0.01,"33":0.005,"34":0.025,"35":0.02,"36":0.03,"37":0.035,"39":0.01,"40":0.015,"41":0.03,"42":0.015,"43":0.01,"44":0.01,"45":0.015,"46":0.005,"47":0.01,"48":0.015,"50":0.005,"51":0.01,"52":0.005,"53":0.01,"54":0.01,"55":0.01,"58":0.005,"60":0.005,"61":0.015,"63":0.015,"67":0.005,"71":0.005,"72":0.01,"73":0.01,"77":0.01,"78":0.01,"80":0.005,"83":0.005,"87":0.005,"90":0.005,"92":0.005,"96":0.005,"100":0.005,"105":0.005,"106":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1712188800000,"validUntil":1714780800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":3,"actual":3,"trainingCount":5693,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2024","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":2.2321500000000003,"mean":7.78,"median":6,"bias":4.78,"maeMean":4.78,"maeMedian":3,"low":1,"high":18,"coverage":true,"width":17,"pitLower":0.14,"pitUpper":0.205,"empiricalMass":0.065,"logScore":2.7333680090865},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.48550000000000004,"mean":3.51,"median":3,"bias":0.5099999999999998,"maeMean":0.5099999999999998,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":8,"coverage":true,"width":8,"pitLower":0.375,"pitUpper":0.58,"empiricalMass":0.205,"logScore":1.584745299843729},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":2.235225,"mean":7.605,"median":7,"bias":4.605,"maeMean":4.605,"maeMedian":4,"low":2,"high":17,"coverage":true,"width":15,"pitLower":0.125,"pitUpper":0.22,"empiricalMass":0.095,"logScore":2.353878387381596},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":1.9736249999999997,"mean":6.255,"median":6,"bias":3.255,"maeMean":3.255,"maeMedian":3,"low":2,"high":11,"coverage":true,"width":9,"pitLower":0.055,"pitUpper":0.125,"empiricalMass":0.07,"logScore":2.659260036932778},"recentPoisson":{"crps":1.346625,"mean":5.405,"median":5,"bias":2.4050000000000002,"maeMean":2.4050000000000002,"maeMedian":2,"low":2,"high":9,"coverage":true,"width":7,"pitLower":0.075,"pitUpper":0.21,"empiricalMass":0.135,"logScore":2.0024805005437076},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":1.2009000000000003,"mean":5.72,"median":5,"bias":2.7199999999999998,"maeMean":2.7199999999999998,"maeMedian":2,"low":1,"high":13,"coverage":true,"width":12,"pitLower":0.18,"pitUpper":0.345,"empiricalMass":0.165,"logScore":1.8018098050815563}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.02,"1":0.05,"2":0.07,"3":0.065,"4":0.11,"5":0.11,"6":0.08,"7":0.095,"8":0.075,"9":0.035,"10":0.04,"11":0.045,"12":0.04,"13":0.04,"14":0.025,"15":0.025,"16":0.01,"17":0.01,"18":0.005,"19":0.015,"22":0.005,"23":0.005,"24":0.01,"35":0.005,"36":0.005,"40":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.065,"1":0.105,"2":0.205,"3":0.205,"4":0.14,"5":0.09,"6":0.065,"7":0.06,"8":0.035,"9":0.02,"10":0.01},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.01,"1":0.035,"2":0.08,"3":0.095,"4":0.11,"5":0.06,"6":0.08,"7":0.11,"8":0.09,"9":0.07,"10":0.03,"11":0.04,"12":0.045,"13":0.025,"14":0.02,"15":0.02,"16":0.01,"17":0.02,"18":0.005,"19":0.005,"20":0.01,"21":0.005,"22":0.005,"23":0.005,"25":0.01,"27":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"1":0.01,"2":0.045,"3":0.07,"4":0.13,"5":0.18,"6":0.12,"7":0.15,"8":0.115,"9":0.095,"10":0.025,"11":0.015,"12":0.03,"13":0.005,"14":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.01,"1":0.005,"2":0.06,"3":0.135,"4":0.17,"5":0.16,"6":0.185,"7":0.09,"8":0.1,"9":0.035,"10":0.02,"11":0.02,"12":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.01,"1":0.05,"2":0.12,"3":0.165,"4":0.125,"5":0.1,"6":0.095,"7":0.075,"8":0.06,"9":0.04,"10":0.05,"11":0.035,"12":0.02,"13":0.015,"14":0.01,"15":0.005,"16":0.01,"17":0.005,"21":0.005,"23":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1712188800000,"validUntil":1714780800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5693,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2024","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.3112999999999999,"mean":0.96,"median":0,"bias":0.96,"maeMean":0.96,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.51,"empiricalMass":0.51,"logScore":0.6733445532637656},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.10294999999999999,"mean":0.39,"median":0,"bias":0.39,"maeMean":0.39,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.685,"empiricalMass":0.685,"logScore":0.3783364407199117},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.30652500000000005,"mean":0.915,"median":0,"bias":0.915,"maeMean":0.915,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.505,"empiricalMass":0.505,"logScore":0.6831968497067772},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.31005,"mean":0.77,"median":1,"bias":0.77,"maeMean":0.77,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.475,"empiricalMass":0.475,"logScore":0.7444404749474959},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.28445,"mean":0.73,"median":0.5,"bias":0.73,"maeMean":0.73,"maeMedian":0.5,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.5,"empiricalMass":0.5,"logScore":0.6931471805599453},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.29705000000000004,"mean":0.76,"median":1,"bias":0.76,"maeMean":0.76,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.49,"empiricalMass":0.49,"logScore":0.7133498878774648}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.51,"1":0.27,"2":0.085,"3":0.075,"4":0.035,"5":0.01,"6":0.005,"7":0.005,"8":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.685,"1":0.255,"2":0.05,"3":0.005,"4":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.505,"1":0.28,"2":0.11,"3":0.045,"4":0.04,"5":0.005,"6":0.01,"7":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.475,"1":0.345,"2":0.14,"3":0.02,"4":0.015,"5":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.5,"1":0.32,"2":0.135,"3":0.04,"4":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.49,"1":0.325,"2":0.135,"3":0.035,"4":0.015}}},{"issuedAt":1714780800000,"validUntil":1714867200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":2,"actual":1,"trainingCount":5713,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2024","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.31579999999999997,"mean":1.35,"median":1,"bias":0.3500000000000001,"maeMean":0.3500000000000001,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.405,"pitUpper":0.68,"empiricalMass":0.275,"logScore":1.2909841813155656},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.255075,"mean":0.845,"median":1,"bias":-0.15500000000000003,"maeMean":0.15500000000000003,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.455,"pitUpper":0.795,"empiricalMass":0.34,"logScore":1.0788096613719298},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.3091250000000001,"mean":1.505,"median":1,"bias":0.5049999999999999,"maeMean":0.5049999999999999,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":6,"coverage":true,"width":6,"pitLower":0.365,"pitUpper":0.66,"empiricalMass":0.295,"logScore":1.2207799226423173},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.256325,"mean":1.405,"median":1,"bias":0.405,"maeMean":0.405,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.26,"pitUpper":0.605,"empiricalMass":0.345,"logScore":1.0642108619507773},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.206225,"mean":1.085,"median":1,"bias":0.08499999999999996,"maeMean":0.08499999999999996,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.34,"pitUpper":0.715,"empiricalMass":0.375,"logScore":0.9808292530117262},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.385575,"mean":0.955,"median":0,"bias":-0.04500000000000004,"maeMean":0.04500000000000004,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.555,"pitUpper":0.765,"empiricalMass":0.21,"logScore":1.5606477482646683}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.405,"1":0.275,"2":0.14,"3":0.08,"4":0.035,"5":0.025,"6":0.01,"7":0.015,"8":0.01,"9":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.455,"1":0.34,"2":0.13,"3":0.055,"4":0.02},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.365,"1":0.295,"2":0.15,"3":0.08,"4":0.03,"5":0.015,"6":0.045,"9":0.005,"10":0.01,"12":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.26,"1":0.345,"2":0.23,"3":0.1,"4":0.03,"5":0.03,"6":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.34,"1":0.375,"2":0.195,"3":0.06,"4":0.01,"5":0.02},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.555,"1":0.21,"2":0.115,"3":0.05,"4":0.02,"5":0.03,"6":0.01,"7":0.005,"8":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1714780800000,"validUntil":1714867200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":3,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5713,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2024","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.01872499999999999,"mean":0.185,"median":0,"bias":0.185,"maeMean":0.185,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.87,"empiricalMass":0.87,"logScore":0.13926206733350766},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.009249999999999994,"mean":0.11,"median":0,"bias":0.11,"maeMean":0.11,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.905,"empiricalMass":0.905,"logScore":0.0998203352822109},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.025150000000000006,"mean":0.22,"median":0,"bias":0.22,"maeMean":0.22,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.85,"empiricalMass":0.85,"logScore":0.16251892949777494},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.03845000000000001,"mean":0.22,"median":0,"bias":0.22,"maeMean":0.22,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.805,"empiricalMass":0.805,"logScore":0.21691300156357363},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.022625000000000006,"mean":0.165,"median":0,"bias":0.165,"maeMean":0.165,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.85,"empiricalMass":0.85,"logScore":0.16251892949777494},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.025474999999999998,"mean":0.205,"median":0,"bias":0.205,"maeMean":0.205,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.845,"empiricalMass":0.845,"logScore":0.16841865162496325}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.87,"1":0.09,"2":0.025,"3":0.015},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.905,"1":0.08,"2":0.015},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.85,"1":0.1,"2":0.04,"3":0.005,"5":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.805,"1":0.175,"2":0.015,"3":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.85,"1":0.14,"2":0.005,"3":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.845,"1":0.12,"2":0.02,"3":0.015}}},{"issuedAt":1714780800000,"validUntil":1714867200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5713,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2024","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.00002499999999999985,"mean":0.005,"median":0,"bias":0.005,"maeMean":0.005,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.995,"empiricalMass":0.995,"logScore":0.005012541823544286},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.00002499999999999985,"mean":0.005,"median":0,"bias":0.005,"maeMean":0.005,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.995,"empiricalMass":0.995,"logScore":0.005012541823544286},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.00040000000000000105,"mean":0.02,"median":0,"bias":0.02,"maeMean":0.02,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.98,"empiricalMass":0.98,"logScore":0.020202707317519466},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.000899999999999998,"mean":0.03,"median":0,"bias":0.03,"maeMean":0.03,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.97,"empiricalMass":0.97,"logScore":0.030459207484708574},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.0009250000000000022,"mean":0.035,"median":0,"bias":0.035,"maeMean":0.035,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.97,"empiricalMass":0.97,"logScore":0.030459207484708574},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.0016000000000000042,"mean":0.04,"median":0,"bias":0.04,"maeMean":0.04,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.96,"empiricalMass":0.96,"logScore":0.040821994520255166}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.995,"1":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.995,"1":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.98,"1":0.02},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.97,"1":0.03},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.97,"1":0.025,"2":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.96,"1":0.04}}},{"issuedAt":1714780800000,"validUntil":1715385600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":2,"actual":2,"trainingCount":5713,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2024","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":4.832125,"mean":11.635,"median":8,"bias":9.635,"maeMean":9.635,"maeMedian":6,"low":3,"high":28,"coverage":false,"width":25,"pitLower":0.005,"pitUpper":0.03,"empiricalMass":0.025,"logScore":3.6888794541139363},"rollingETAS":{"crps":2.7043999999999997,"mean":6.41,"median":6,"bias":4.41,"maeMean":4.41,"maeMedian":4,"low":2,"high":12,"coverage":true,"width":10,"pitLower":0.02,"pitUpper":0.085,"empiricalMass":0.065,"logScore":2.7333680090865},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":4.796000000000001,"mean":10.54,"median":9,"bias":8.54,"maeMean":8.54,"maeMedian":7,"low":2,"high":26,"coverage":true,"width":24,"pitLower":0.005,"pitUpper":0.06,"empiricalMass":0.055,"logScore":2.900422093749666},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":6.771399999999999,"mean":10.62,"median":11,"bias":8.62,"maeMean":8.62,"maeMedian":9,"low":6,"high":16,"coverage":false,"width":10,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentPoisson":{"crps":4.4104,"mean":8.05,"median":8,"bias":6.050000000000001,"maeMean":6.050000000000001,"maeMedian":6,"low":4,"high":13,"coverage":false,"width":9,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.005,"empiricalMass":0.005,"logScore":5.298317366548036},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":2.521225,"mean":7.285,"median":6,"bias":5.285,"maeMean":5.285,"maeMedian":4,"low":0,"high":20,"coverage":true,"width":20,"pitLower":0.12,"pitUpper":0.2,"empiricalMass":0.08,"logScore":2.5257286443082556}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"1":0.005,"2":0.025,"3":0.065,"4":0.075,"5":0.075,"6":0.085,"7":0.09,"8":0.095,"9":0.055,"10":0.06,"11":0.05,"12":0.03,"13":0.055,"14":0.025,"15":0.03,"16":0.025,"17":0.005,"18":0.025,"19":0.005,"20":0.02,"21":0.02,"23":0.015,"25":0.005,"27":0.005,"28":0.005,"30":0.005,"35":0.005,"38":0.005,"39":0.01,"40":0.005,"56":0.005,"82":0.005,"87":0.005,"93":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.005,"1":0.015,"2":0.065,"3":0.105,"4":0.09,"5":0.13,"6":0.15,"7":0.17,"8":0.075,"9":0.05,"10":0.055,"11":0.02,"12":0.025,"13":0.005,"14":0.01,"15":0.01,"16":0.005,"18":0.005,"20":0.005,"21":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"1":0.005,"2":0.055,"3":0.065,"4":0.06,"5":0.04,"6":0.075,"7":0.07,"8":0.11,"9":0.075,"10":0.06,"11":0.085,"12":0.04,"13":0.05,"14":0.035,"15":0.01,"16":0.015,"17":0.01,"18":0.005,"19":0.025,"20":0.015,"21":0.01,"23":0.02,"24":0.005,"25":0.005,"26":0.005,"27":0.005,"28":0.005,"31":0.01,"32":0.005,"33":0.01,"37":0.005,"39":0.005,"43":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"3":0.005,"4":0.015,"5":0.02,"6":0.065,"7":0.09,"8":0.095,"9":0.095,"10":0.11,"11":0.105,"12":0.105,"13":0.095,"14":0.06,"15":0.07,"16":0.035,"17":0.02,"18":0.015},"recentPoisson":{"2":0.005,"3":0.04,"4":0.07,"5":0.085,"6":0.125,"7":0.135,"8":0.125,"9":0.095,"10":0.12,"11":0.075,"12":0.05,"13":0.035,"14":0.02,"15":0.015,"16":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.07,"1":0.05,"2":0.08,"3":0.09,"4":0.1,"5":0.1,"6":0.05,"7":0.09,"8":0.045,"9":0.05,"10":0.04,"11":0.025,"12":0.04,"13":0.025,"14":0.025,"15":0.025,"16":0.015,"17":0.01,"18":0.015,"20":0.01,"21":0.005,"22":0.005,"23":0.01,"24":0.01,"25":0.005,"26":0.005,"28":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1714780800000,"validUntil":1715385600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":3,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5713,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2024","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.506125,"mean":1.485,"median":1,"bias":1.485,"maeMean":1.485,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.4,"empiricalMass":0.4,"logScore":0.916290731874155},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.307275,"mean":0.775,"median":1,"bias":0.775,"maeMean":0.775,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.475,"empiricalMass":0.475,"logScore":0.7444404749474959},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.4545,"mean":1.22,"median":1,"bias":1.22,"maeMean":1.22,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.415,"empiricalMass":0.415,"logScore":0.8794767587514388},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.6641749999999998,"mean":1.265,"median":1,"bias":1.265,"maeMean":1.265,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.275,"empiricalMass":0.275,"logScore":1.2909841813155656},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.737625,"mean":1.345,"median":1,"bias":1.345,"maeMean":1.345,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.25,"empiricalMass":0.25,"logScore":1.3862943611198906},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.5952249999999999,"mean":1.505,"median":1,"bias":1.505,"maeMean":1.505,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.39,"empiricalMass":0.39,"logScore":0.941608539858445}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.4,"1":0.295,"2":0.135,"3":0.06,"4":0.035,"5":0.025,"6":0.01,"7":0.015,"8":0.005,"11":0.005,"12":0.005,"15":0.005,"16":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.475,"1":0.355,"2":0.125,"3":0.02,"4":0.015,"5":0.01},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.415,"1":0.32,"2":0.11,"3":0.035,"4":0.07,"5":0.02,"6":0.015,"7":0.015},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.275,"1":0.38,"2":0.215,"3":0.08,"4":0.04,"5":0.005,"6":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.25,"1":0.36,"2":0.245,"3":0.105,"4":0.02,"5":0.02},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.39,"1":0.23,"2":0.155,"3":0.085,"4":0.055,"5":0.055,"6":0.015,"7":0.005,"8":0.005,"10":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1714780800000,"validUntil":1715385600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5713,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2024","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.018350000000000005,"mean":0.19,"median":0,"bias":0.19,"maeMean":0.19,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.87,"empiricalMass":0.87,"logScore":0.13926206733350766},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.0072499999999999926,"mean":0.09,"median":0,"bias":0.09,"maeMean":0.09,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.915,"empiricalMass":0.915,"logScore":0.0888312137066157},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.019699999999999995,"mean":0.15,"median":0,"bias":0.15,"maeMean":0.15,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.86,"empiricalMass":0.86,"logScore":0.15082288973458366},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.018250000000000016,"mean":0.14,"median":0,"bias":0.14,"maeMean":0.14,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.865,"empiricalMass":0.865,"logScore":0.14502577205025774},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.030725000000000002,"mean":0.185,"median":0,"bias":0.185,"maeMean":0.185,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.825,"empiricalMass":0.825,"logScore":0.19237189264745613},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.022724999999999995,"mean":0.165,"median":0,"bias":0.165,"maeMean":0.165,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.85,"empiricalMass":0.85,"logScore":0.16251892949777494}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.87,"1":0.095,"2":0.025,"4":0.005,"5":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.915,"1":0.08,"2":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.86,"1":0.13,"2":0.01},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.865,"1":0.13,"2":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.825,"1":0.165,"2":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.85,"1":0.135,"2":0.015}}},{"issuedAt":1714780800000,"validUntil":1717372800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":2,"actual":24,"trainingCount":5713,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2024","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":18.040425,"mean":54.645,"median":50.5,"bias":30.645000000000003,"maeMean":30.645000000000003,"maeMedian":26.5,"low":27,"high":99,"coverage":false,"width":72,"pitLower":0.02,"pitUpper":0.025,"empiricalMass":0.005,"logScore":5.298317366548036},"rollingETAS":{"crps":2.35905,"mean":28.35,"median":27,"bias":4.350000000000001,"maeMean":4.350000000000001,"maeMedian":3,"low":16,"high":42,"coverage":true,"width":26,"pitLower":0.28,"pitUpper":0.345,"empiricalMass":0.065,"logScore":2.7333680090865},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":17.323725000000003,"mean":56.045,"median":48,"bias":32.045,"maeMean":32.045,"maeMedian":24,"low":26,"high":123,"coverage":false,"width":97,"pitLower":0.03,"pitUpper":0.03,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":17.448775,"mean":45.315,"median":45,"bias":21.314999999999998,"maeMean":21.314999999999998,"maeMedian":21,"low":34,"high":57,"coverage":false,"width":23,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentPoisson":{"crps":6.857575000000001,"mean":33.765,"median":34,"bias":9.765,"maeMean":9.765,"maeMedian":10,"low":24,"high":43,"coverage":true,"width":19,"pitLower":0.03,"pitUpper":0.05,"empiricalMass":0.02,"logScore":3.912023005428146},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":5.685425,"mean":34.675,"median":31.5,"bias":10.674999999999997,"maeMean":10.674999999999997,"maeMedian":7.5,"low":10,"high":71,"coverage":true,"width":61,"pitLower":0.35,"pitUpper":0.38,"empiricalMass":0.03,"logScore":3.506557897319982}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"11":0.005,"18":0.005,"22":0.01,"24":0.005,"25":0.01,"26":0.01,"27":0.01,"28":0.015,"29":0.01,"30":0.025,"31":0.03,"32":0.02,"33":0.02,"34":0.02,"35":0.005,"37":0.04,"38":0.025,"39":0.035,"40":0.025,"41":0.03,"42":0.02,"43":0.01,"44":0.015,"45":0.02,"46":0.02,"47":0.01,"48":0.025,"49":0.015,"50":0.01,"51":0.01,"52":0.03,"53":0.035,"54":0.015,"55":0.02,"56":0.015,"57":0.035,"58":0.01,"59":0.01,"60":0.02,"61":0.03,"62":0.02,"63":0.005,"64":0.02,"66":0.005,"68":0.015,"69":0.01,"70":0.005,"71":0.005,"72":0.01,"73":0.005,"74":0.01,"76":0.01,"77":0.015,"78":0.005,"79":0.005,"81":0.01,"82":0.005,"83":0.005,"84":0.005,"85":0.005,"86":0.005,"88":0.005,"89":0.005,"90":0.005,"93":0.005,"94":0.01,"97":0.005,"99":0.005,"107":0.01,"110":0.005,"114":0.01,"130":0.005,"135":0.005,"139":0.005,"150":0.005,"204":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"10":0.005,"12":0.01,"13":0.005,"14":0.01,"15":0.01,"16":0.01,"17":0.005,"18":0.035,"19":0.02,"20":0.035,"21":0.045,"22":0.055,"23":0.035,"24":0.065,"25":0.04,"26":0.05,"27":0.08,"28":0.035,"29":0.05,"30":0.06,"31":0.05,"32":0.065,"33":0.025,"34":0.02,"35":0.035,"36":0.01,"37":0.025,"38":0.02,"39":0.015,"41":0.01,"42":0.015,"43":0.02,"44":0.005,"56":0.01,"61":0.005,"68":0.005,"69":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"18":0.005,"19":0.005,"20":0.005,"21":0.005,"22":0.005,"23":0.005,"25":0.01,"26":0.01,"27":0.005,"28":0.025,"29":0.03,"30":0.015,"31":0.01,"32":0.005,"33":0.03,"34":0.035,"35":0.025,"36":0.03,"37":0.025,"38":0.025,"39":0.02,"40":0.03,"41":0.02,"42":0.025,"43":0.025,"44":0.015,"45":0.015,"46":0.015,"47":0.015,"48":0.02,"49":0.025,"50":0.015,"51":0.02,"52":0.015,"53":0.015,"54":0.025,"55":0.015,"56":0.02,"57":0.01,"58":0.015,"59":0.02,"60":0.01,"61":0.015,"62":0.01,"64":0.005,"66":0.005,"67":0.01,"68":0.015,"70":0.005,"71":0.01,"72":0.005,"73":0.01,"74":0.005,"75":0.01,"76":0.005,"77":0.005,"80":0.005,"81":0.005,"82":0.015,"83":0.005,"85":0.01,"86":0.005,"87":0.005,"89":0.01,"91":0.005,"93":0.01,"96":0.005,"98":0.005,"99":0.005,"103":0.005,"105":0.005,"109":0.005,"116":0.005,"120":0.005,"123":0.005,"125":0.005,"127":0.005,"128":0.005,"130":0.005,"131":0.005,"135":0.005,"146":0.005,"174":0.005,"191":0.01},"expandingPoisson":{"29":0.015,"30":0.005,"31":0.005,"32":0.005,"33":0.005,"34":0.025,"35":0.02,"36":0.035,"37":0.025,"38":0.035,"39":0.025,"40":0.025,"41":0.04,"42":0.05,"43":0.075,"44":0.055,"45":0.06,"46":0.08,"47":0.045,"48":0.07,"49":0.055,"50":0.02,"51":0.06,"52":0.035,"53":0.035,"54":0.01,"56":0.015,"57":0.02,"58":0.02,"59":0.01,"60":0.005,"61":0.005,"64":0.005,"69":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"21":0.01,"22":0.005,"23":0.015,"24":0.02,"25":0.01,"26":0.025,"27":0.035,"28":0.045,"29":0.03,"30":0.05,"31":0.115,"32":0.04,"33":0.075,"34":0.085,"35":0.1,"36":0.075,"37":0.065,"38":0.025,"39":0.025,"40":0.045,"41":0.03,"42":0.02,"43":0.005,"44":0.005,"45":0.02,"46":0.005,"47":0.005,"48":0.005,"49":0.005,"50":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.005,"5":0.01,"6":0.005,"7":0.01,"8":0.005,"9":0.01,"10":0.01,"11":0.035,"12":0.05,"13":0.015,"14":0.02,"16":0.005,"17":0.01,"18":0.035,"19":0.015,"20":0.02,"21":0.02,"22":0.025,"23":0.045,"24":0.03,"25":0.025,"26":0.025,"27":0.01,"28":0.005,"29":0.02,"30":0.015,"31":0.02,"32":0.02,"33":0.02,"34":0.02,"35":0.02,"36":0.025,"37":0.01,"38":0.025,"39":0.015,"40":0.015,"41":0.005,"42":0.01,"43":0.02,"44":0.025,"45":0.005,"46":0.005,"47":0.02,"48":0.01,"49":0.01,"51":0.005,"52":0.015,"53":0.01,"54":0.015,"55":0.005,"56":0.015,"57":0.02,"58":0.005,"59":0.01,"60":0.005,"61":0.005,"62":0.015,"64":0.005,"65":0.005,"67":0.015,"68":0.005,"69":0.005,"71":0.015,"72":0.01,"74":0.005,"77":0.005,"83":0.005,"86":0.005,"87":0.005,"97":0.005,"98":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1714780800000,"validUntil":1717372800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":3,"actual":2,"trainingCount":5713,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2024","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":2.3398749999999997,"mean":6.485,"median":5,"bias":4.485,"maeMean":4.485,"maeMedian":3,"low":1,"high":14,"coverage":true,"width":13,"pitLower":0.06,"pitUpper":0.135,"empiricalMass":0.075,"logScore":2.5902671654458267},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.8025500000000001,"mean":3.61,"median":3,"bias":1.6099999999999999,"maeMean":1.6099999999999999,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":7,"coverage":true,"width":7,"pitLower":0.16,"pitUpper":0.37,"empiricalMass":0.21,"logScore":1.5606477482646683},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":2.290775,"mean":6.795,"median":5,"bias":4.795,"maeMean":4.795,"maeMedian":3,"low":1,"high":19,"coverage":true,"width":18,"pitLower":0.07,"pitUpper":0.15,"empiricalMass":0.08,"logScore":2.5257286443082556},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":2.9351999999999996,"mean":6.11,"median":6,"bias":4.11,"maeMean":4.11,"maeMedian":4,"low":3,"high":9,"coverage":false,"width":6,"pitLower":0.015,"pitUpper":0.04,"empiricalMass":0.025,"logScore":3.6888794541139363},"recentPoisson":{"crps":2.559075,"mean":5.755,"median":5,"bias":3.755,"maeMean":3.755,"maeMedian":3,"low":2,"high":9,"coverage":true,"width":7,"pitLower":0.015,"pitUpper":0.05,"empiricalMass":0.035,"logScore":3.3524072174927233},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":1.6762000000000001,"mean":5.53,"median":5,"bias":3.5300000000000002,"maeMean":3.5300000000000002,"maeMedian":3,"low":1,"high":12,"coverage":true,"width":11,"pitLower":0.095,"pitUpper":0.23,"empiricalMass":0.135,"logScore":2.0024805005437076}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.015,"1":0.045,"2":0.075,"3":0.12,"4":0.125,"5":0.145,"6":0.09,"7":0.065,"8":0.055,"9":0.06,"10":0.045,"11":0.025,"12":0.045,"13":0.03,"14":0.02,"15":0.01,"16":0.01,"18":0.005,"19":0.005,"25":0.005,"35":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.065,"1":0.095,"2":0.21,"3":0.165,"4":0.13,"5":0.15,"6":0.09,"7":0.05,"8":0.01,"9":0.01,"10":0.01,"11":0.01,"12":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.015,"1":0.055,"2":0.08,"3":0.125,"4":0.12,"5":0.13,"6":0.095,"7":0.07,"8":0.045,"9":0.055,"10":0.055,"11":0.03,"12":0.02,"13":0.005,"14":0.015,"15":0.005,"16":0.01,"17":0.01,"18":0.005,"19":0.02,"20":0.005,"22":0.005,"24":0.005,"25":0.005,"26":0.005,"28":0.005,"33":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"1":0.015,"2":0.025,"3":0.075,"4":0.105,"5":0.18,"6":0.165,"7":0.195,"8":0.135,"9":0.06,"10":0.01,"11":0.015,"12":0.005,"13":0.01,"14":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"1":0.015,"2":0.035,"3":0.095,"4":0.16,"5":0.2,"6":0.15,"7":0.1,"8":0.12,"9":0.075,"10":0.04,"11":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.025,"1":0.07,"2":0.135,"3":0.16,"4":0.1,"5":0.08,"6":0.095,"7":0.075,"8":0.07,"9":0.055,"10":0.035,"11":0.04,"12":0.01,"13":0.005,"14":0.005,"15":0.01,"17":0.01,"18":0.005,"20":0.01,"21":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1714780800000,"validUntil":1717372800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5713,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2024","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.263525,"mean":0.805,"median":0,"bias":0.805,"maeMean":0.805,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.53,"empiricalMass":0.53,"logScore":0.6348782724359695},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.12664999999999998,"mean":0.45,"median":0,"bias":0.45,"maeMean":0.45,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.655,"empiricalMass":0.655,"logScore":0.4231200433468851},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.23412500000000003,"mean":0.785,"median":0,"bias":0.785,"maeMean":0.785,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.56,"empiricalMass":0.56,"logScore":0.579818495252942},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.27534999999999993,"mean":0.7,"median":0.5,"bias":0.7,"maeMean":0.7,"maeMedian":0.5,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.5,"empiricalMass":0.5,"logScore":0.6931471805599453},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.26739999999999997,"mean":0.7,"median":0,"bias":0.7,"maeMean":0.7,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.51,"empiricalMass":0.51,"logScore":0.6733445532637656},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.20352500000000007,"mean":0.685,"median":0,"bias":0.685,"maeMean":0.685,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.59,"empiricalMass":0.59,"logScore":0.527632742082372}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.53,"1":0.29,"2":0.085,"3":0.065,"4":0.02,"7":0.01},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.655,"1":0.26,"2":0.065,"3":0.02},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.56,"1":0.27,"2":0.08,"3":0.035,"4":0.035,"5":0.01,"6":0.01},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.5,"1":0.345,"2":0.12,"3":0.025,"4":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.51,"1":0.33,"2":0.12,"3":0.03,"4":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.59,"1":0.24,"2":0.095,"3":0.045,"4":0.03}}},{"issuedAt":1717372800000,"validUntil":1717459200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":2,"actual":1,"trainingCount":5737,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2024","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.38077499999999986,"mean":1.695,"median":1,"bias":0.6950000000000001,"maeMean":0.6950000000000001,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.41,"pitUpper":0.62,"empiricalMass":0.21,"logScore":1.5606477482646683},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.276,"mean":0.98,"median":1,"bias":-0.020000000000000018,"maeMean":0.020000000000000018,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.47,"pitUpper":0.785,"empiricalMass":0.315,"logScore":1.155182640156504},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.34119999999999995,"mean":1.29,"median":1,"bias":0.29000000000000004,"maeMean":0.29000000000000004,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.425,"pitUpper":0.665,"empiricalMass":0.24,"logScore":1.4271163556401458},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.3016749999999999,"mean":1.555,"median":1,"bias":0.5549999999999999,"maeMean":0.5549999999999999,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.205,"pitUpper":0.53,"empiricalMass":0.325,"logScore":1.1239300966523995},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.268775,"mean":1.045,"median":1,"bias":0.04499999999999993,"maeMean":0.04499999999999993,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.4,"pitUpper":0.695,"empiricalMass":0.295,"logScore":1.2207799226423173},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.3665249999999999,"mean":0.915,"median":0,"bias":-0.08499999999999996,"maeMean":0.08499999999999996,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.545,"pitUpper":0.78,"empiricalMass":0.235,"logScore":1.448169764837978}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.41,"1":0.21,"2":0.175,"3":0.095,"4":0.035,"5":0.025,"6":0.005,"7":0.015,"8":0.005,"11":0.01,"12":0.005,"20":0.005,"28":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.47,"1":0.315,"2":0.145,"3":0.02,"4":0.02,"5":0.015,"6":0.01,"20":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.425,"1":0.24,"2":0.135,"3":0.12,"4":0.045,"5":0.015,"6":0.01,"8":0.005,"13":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.205,"1":0.325,"2":0.29,"3":0.105,"4":0.05,"5":0.015,"6":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.4,"1":0.295,"2":0.18,"3":0.115,"4":0.005,"5":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.545,"1":0.235,"2":0.09,"3":0.075,"4":0.025,"5":0.015,"6":0.01,"8":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1717372800000,"validUntil":1717459200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":3,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5737,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2024","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.01252499999999998,"mean":0.175,"median":0,"bias":0.175,"maeMean":0.175,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.895,"empiricalMass":0.895,"logScore":0.11093156070728166},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.010149999999999992,"mean":0.12,"median":0,"bias":0.12,"maeMean":0.12,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.9,"empiricalMass":0.9,"logScore":0.10536051565782628},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.013874999999999998,"mean":0.145,"median":0,"bias":0.145,"maeMean":0.145,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.885,"empiricalMass":0.885,"logScore":0.12216763397420753},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.044125,"mean":0.215,"median":0,"bias":0.215,"maeMean":0.215,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.79,"empiricalMass":0.79,"logScore":0.23572233352106983},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.028999999999999998,"mean":0.18,"median":0,"bias":0.18,"maeMean":0.18,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.83,"empiricalMass":0.83,"logScore":0.18632957819149348},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.017674999999999996,"mean":0.175,"median":0,"bias":0.175,"maeMean":0.175,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.875,"empiricalMass":0.875,"logScore":0.13353139262452263}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.895,"1":0.075,"2":0.01,"3":0.01,"5":0.01},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.9,"1":0.09,"2":0.005,"4":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.885,"1":0.09,"2":0.02,"3":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.79,"1":0.205,"2":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.83,"1":0.16,"2":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.875,"1":0.08,"2":0.04,"3":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1717372800000,"validUntil":1717459200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5737,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2024","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.0007250000000000034,"mean":0.035,"median":0,"bias":0.035,"maeMean":0.035,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.975,"empiricalMass":0.975,"logScore":0.025317807984289897},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.0002500000000000002,"mean":0.02,"median":0,"bias":0.02,"maeMean":0.02,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.985,"empiricalMass":0.985,"logScore":0.015113637810048184},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.00002499999999999985,"mean":0.005,"median":0,"bias":0.005,"maeMean":0.005,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.995,"empiricalMass":0.995,"logScore":0.005012541823544286},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.00040000000000000105,"mean":0.02,"median":0,"bias":0.02,"maeMean":0.02,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.98,"empiricalMass":0.98,"logScore":0.020202707317519466},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.0016000000000000042,"mean":0.04,"median":0,"bias":0.04,"maeMean":0.04,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.96,"empiricalMass":0.96,"logScore":0.040821994520255166},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.0016000000000000042,"mean":0.04,"median":0,"bias":0.04,"maeMean":0.04,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.96,"empiricalMass":0.96,"logScore":0.040821994520255166}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.975,"1":0.015,"2":0.01},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.985,"1":0.01,"2":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.995,"1":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.98,"1":0.02},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.96,"1":0.04},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.96,"1":0.04}}},{"issuedAt":1717372800000,"validUntil":1717977600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":2,"actual":10,"trainingCount":5737,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2024","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":1.7093500000000006,"mean":12.59,"median":11,"bias":2.59,"maeMean":2.59,"maeMedian":1,"low":3,"high":29,"coverage":true,"width":26,"pitLower":0.41,"pitUpper":0.48,"empiricalMass":0.07,"logScore":2.659260036932778},"rollingETAS":{"crps":2.185225,"mean":6.665,"median":6,"bias":-3.335,"maeMean":3.335,"maeMedian":4,"low":2,"high":12,"coverage":true,"width":10,"pitLower":0.815,"pitUpper":0.885,"empiricalMass":0.07,"logScore":2.659260036932778},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":1.6010999999999997,"mean":12.85,"median":9,"bias":2.8499999999999996,"maeMean":2.8499999999999996,"maeMedian":1,"low":3,"high":40,"coverage":true,"width":37,"pitLower":0.53,"pitUpper":0.61,"empiricalMass":0.08,"logScore":2.5257286443082556},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.8181,"mean":11.05,"median":11,"bias":1.0500000000000007,"maeMean":1.0500000000000007,"maeMedian":1,"low":6,"high":17,"coverage":true,"width":11,"pitLower":0.345,"pitUpper":0.48,"empiricalMass":0.135,"logScore":2.0024805005437076},"recentPoisson":{"crps":1.36915,"mean":7.75,"median":8,"bias":-2.25,"maeMean":2.25,"maeMedian":2,"low":3,"high":13,"coverage":true,"width":10,"pitLower":0.73,"pitUpper":0.835,"empiricalMass":0.105,"logScore":2.2537949288246137},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":2.613525,"mean":7.945,"median":6,"bias":-2.0549999999999997,"maeMean":2.0549999999999997,"maeMedian":4,"low":0,"high":24,"coverage":true,"width":24,"pitLower":0.735,"pitUpper":0.75,"empiricalMass":0.015,"logScore":4.199705077879927}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"1":0.015,"2":0.03,"3":0.03,"4":0.03,"5":0.115,"6":0.035,"7":0.07,"8":0.05,"9":0.035,"10":0.07,"11":0.07,"12":0.065,"13":0.025,"14":0.05,"15":0.015,"16":0.045,"17":0.03,"18":0.055,"19":0.02,"20":0.04,"21":0.02,"23":0.01,"25":0.005,"27":0.01,"28":0.005,"29":0.005,"31":0.005,"33":0.01,"34":0.005,"37":0.005,"39":0.01,"41":0.005,"54":0.005,"76":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"1":0.02,"2":0.05,"3":0.075,"4":0.14,"5":0.125,"6":0.105,"7":0.12,"8":0.11,"9":0.07,"10":0.07,"11":0.04,"12":0.03,"13":0.02,"14":0.015,"17":0.005,"20":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.005,"1":0.015,"2":0.02,"3":0.04,"4":0.075,"5":0.08,"6":0.05,"7":0.095,"8":0.045,"9":0.105,"10":0.08,"11":0.035,"12":0.04,"13":0.04,"14":0.025,"15":0.025,"16":0.03,"17":0.005,"18":0.025,"19":0.015,"20":0.035,"21":0.005,"22":0.01,"23":0.015,"24":0.005,"25":0.01,"26":0.005,"31":0.005,"37":0.005,"40":0.005,"42":0.005,"46":0.005,"48":0.005,"52":0.005,"56":0.005,"59":0.005,"60":0.005,"66":0.005,"83":0.005,"105":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"4":0.01,"5":0.015,"6":0.045,"7":0.06,"8":0.095,"9":0.12,"10":0.135,"11":0.12,"12":0.085,"13":0.075,"14":0.095,"15":0.04,"16":0.035,"17":0.03,"18":0.03,"19":0.005,"21":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.005,"2":0.02,"3":0.04,"4":0.065,"5":0.1,"6":0.115,"7":0.13,"8":0.14,"9":0.115,"10":0.105,"11":0.085,"12":0.02,"13":0.03,"14":0.015,"16":0.005,"17":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.08,"1":0.09,"2":0.11,"3":0.08,"4":0.05,"5":0.07,"6":0.075,"7":0.075,"8":0.045,"9":0.06,"10":0.015,"11":0.045,"12":0.02,"13":0.02,"14":0.04,"15":0.005,"17":0.015,"18":0.015,"19":0.005,"21":0.01,"22":0.015,"24":0.01,"25":0.005,"27":0.01,"29":0.01,"31":0.005,"34":0.005,"42":0.005,"45":0.005,"69":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1717372800000,"validUntil":1717977600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":3,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5737,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2024","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.660825,"mean":1.645,"median":1,"bias":1.645,"maeMean":1.645,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.37,"empiricalMass":0.37,"logScore":0.9942522733438669},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.34377500000000005,"mean":0.875,"median":1,"bias":0.875,"maeMean":0.875,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.47,"empiricalMass":0.47,"logScore":0.7550225842780328},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.492375,"mean":1.555,"median":1,"bias":1.555,"maeMean":1.555,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":6,"coverage":true,"width":6,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.425,"empiricalMass":0.425,"logScore":0.8556661100577202},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.747975,"mean":1.375,"median":1,"bias":1.375,"maeMean":1.375,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.25,"empiricalMass":0.25,"logScore":1.3862943611198906},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.5572499999999999,"mean":1.16,"median":1,"bias":1.16,"maeMean":1.16,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.33,"empiricalMass":0.33,"logScore":1.1086626245216111},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.35314999999999985,"mean":1.13,"median":0,"bias":1.13,"maeMean":1.13,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.51,"empiricalMass":0.51,"logScore":0.6733445532637656}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.37,"1":0.215,"2":0.17,"3":0.105,"4":0.045,"5":0.05,"6":0.025,"8":0.01,"9":0.005,"14":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.47,"1":0.295,"2":0.15,"3":0.065,"4":0.015,"5":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.425,"1":0.26,"2":0.14,"3":0.055,"4":0.035,"5":0.02,"6":0.015,"7":0.01,"8":0.01,"9":0.01,"10":0.01,"15":0.005,"21":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.25,"1":0.355,"2":0.23,"3":0.12,"4":0.035,"6":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.33,"1":0.37,"2":0.175,"3":0.075,"4":0.035,"5":0.015},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.51,"1":0.215,"2":0.125,"3":0.05,"4":0.04,"5":0.03,"6":0.01,"7":0.015,"8":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1717372800000,"validUntil":1717977600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5737,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2024","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.02425000000000002,"mean":0.17,"median":0,"bias":0.17,"maeMean":0.17,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.845,"empiricalMass":0.845,"logScore":0.16841865162496325},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.011050000000000004,"mean":0.11,"median":0,"bias":0.11,"maeMean":0.11,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.895,"empiricalMass":0.895,"logScore":0.11093156070728166},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.021150000000000002,"mean":0.21,"median":0,"bias":0.21,"maeMean":0.21,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.865,"empiricalMass":0.865,"logScore":0.14502577205025774},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.022925,"mean":0.175,"median":0,"bias":0.175,"maeMean":0.175,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.85,"empiricalMass":0.85,"logScore":0.16251892949777494},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.04324999999999998,"mean":0.24,"median":0,"bias":0.24,"maeMean":0.24,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.795,"empiricalMass":0.795,"logScore":0.2294131643278051},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.03612500000000002,"mean":0.195,"median":0,"bias":0.195,"maeMean":0.195,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.81,"empiricalMass":0.81,"logScore":0.21072103131565253}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.845,"1":0.14,"2":0.015},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.895,"1":0.1,"2":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.865,"1":0.085,"2":0.03,"3":0.015,"4":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.85,"1":0.13,"2":0.015,"3":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.795,"1":0.17,"2":0.035},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.81,"1":0.185,"2":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1717372800000,"validUntil":1719964800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":2,"actual":30,"trainingCount":5737,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2024","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":16.96615,"mean":61.81,"median":54,"bias":31.810000000000002,"maeMean":31.810000000000002,"maeMedian":24,"low":26,"high":119,"coverage":true,"width":93,"pitLower":0.06,"pitUpper":0.08,"empiricalMass":0.02,"logScore":3.912023005428146},"rollingETAS":{"crps":2.2783500000000005,"mean":27.49,"median":27,"bias":-2.5100000000000016,"maeMean":2.5100000000000016,"maeMedian":3,"low":17,"high":41,"coverage":true,"width":24,"pitLower":0.645,"pitUpper":0.695,"empiricalMass":0.05,"logScore":2.995732273553991},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":14.340425,"mean":59.025,"median":51,"bias":29.025,"maeMean":29.025,"maeMedian":21,"low":24,"high":123,"coverage":true,"width":99,"pitLower":0.105,"pitUpper":0.115,"empiricalMass":0.01,"logScore":4.605170185988091},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":10.743324999999999,"mean":44.645,"median":44,"bias":14.645000000000003,"maeMean":14.645000000000003,"maeMedian":14,"low":33,"high":55,"coverage":false,"width":22,"pitLower":0.005,"pitUpper":0.01,"empiricalMass":0.005,"logScore":5.298317366548036},"recentPoisson":{"crps":1.9676750000000003,"mean":33.095,"median":33,"bias":3.094999999999999,"maeMean":3.094999999999999,"maeMedian":3,"low":24,"high":43,"coverage":true,"width":19,"pitLower":0.29,"pitUpper":0.34,"empiricalMass":0.05,"logScore":2.995732273553991},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":4.9122,"mean":34.29,"median":28,"bias":4.289999999999999,"maeMean":4.289999999999999,"maeMedian":2,"low":7,"high":77,"coverage":true,"width":70,"pitLower":0.52,"pitUpper":0.55,"empiricalMass":0.03,"logScore":3.506557897319982}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"17":0.005,"22":0.025,"24":0.005,"25":0.005,"26":0.01,"27":0.005,"28":0.005,"30":0.02,"31":0.01,"32":0.01,"33":0.01,"34":0.005,"35":0.025,"36":0.01,"37":0.02,"38":0.02,"39":0.015,"40":0.015,"41":0.025,"42":0.025,"43":0.02,"44":0.025,"45":0.025,"46":0.035,"47":0.005,"48":0.015,"49":0.01,"50":0.01,"51":0.015,"52":0.025,"53":0.02,"54":0.03,"55":0.005,"56":0.02,"57":0.005,"58":0.03,"59":0.01,"60":0.01,"61":0.03,"62":0.02,"63":0.01,"64":0.015,"65":0.015,"66":0.02,"67":0.01,"70":0.005,"71":0.02,"72":0.005,"73":0.005,"75":0.04,"77":0.01,"78":0.015,"79":0.01,"81":0.015,"83":0.005,"84":0.005,"86":0.005,"87":0.005,"88":0.005,"89":0.005,"92":0.005,"94":0.005,"95":0.01,"98":0.01,"100":0.005,"101":0.01,"102":0.005,"103":0.005,"105":0.005,"107":0.005,"111":0.005,"113":0.005,"115":0.005,"118":0.005,"119":0.005,"120":0.005,"125":0.01,"137":0.015,"168":0.005,"174":0.005,"207":0.005,"208":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"14":0.01,"15":0.005,"16":0.015,"17":0.025,"18":0.045,"19":0.015,"20":0.04,"21":0.055,"22":0.07,"23":0.075,"24":0.055,"25":0.035,"26":0.035,"27":0.065,"28":0.045,"29":0.055,"30":0.05,"31":0.06,"32":0.025,"33":0.03,"34":0.025,"35":0.045,"36":0.01,"37":0.015,"38":0.02,"39":0.015,"40":0.005,"41":0.005,"42":0.01,"43":0.005,"44":0.005,"45":0.005,"46":0.005,"47":0.005,"49":0.005,"51":0.005,"59":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"11":0.005,"17":0.005,"19":0.005,"20":0.01,"22":0.015,"23":0.005,"24":0.015,"26":0.01,"27":0.005,"28":0.005,"29":0.025,"30":0.01,"31":0.015,"32":0.03,"33":0.02,"34":0.005,"35":0.025,"36":0.025,"37":0.01,"38":0.035,"39":0.01,"40":0.02,"41":0.01,"42":0.01,"43":0.025,"44":0.015,"45":0.015,"46":0.015,"47":0.02,"48":0.02,"49":0.02,"50":0.015,"51":0.03,"52":0.01,"53":0.02,"55":0.015,"56":0.005,"57":0.01,"58":0.015,"59":0.005,"60":0.03,"61":0.015,"62":0.01,"63":0.025,"64":0.02,"65":0.02,"66":0.015,"67":0.015,"68":0.015,"69":0.005,"70":0.005,"71":0.01,"73":0.01,"74":0.015,"77":0.01,"78":0.005,"79":0.01,"80":0.005,"81":0.01,"82":0.01,"83":0.005,"85":0.005,"86":0.01,"87":0.015,"91":0.005,"93":0.005,"96":0.005,"98":0.005,"99":0.005,"101":0.005,"103":0.005,"106":0.005,"107":0.005,"110":0.005,"112":0.005,"113":0.005,"119":0.005,"123":0.005,"126":0.005,"129":0.01,"137":0.01,"143":0.005,"145":0.005,"156":0.005,"176":0.005,"263":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"28":0.005,"30":0.005,"31":0.02,"32":0.015,"33":0.005,"34":0.015,"35":0.03,"36":0.03,"37":0.05,"38":0.025,"39":0.035,"40":0.06,"41":0.03,"42":0.03,"43":0.06,"44":0.105,"45":0.045,"46":0.055,"47":0.05,"48":0.06,"49":0.045,"50":0.005,"51":0.02,"52":0.04,"53":0.055,"54":0.03,"55":0.035,"56":0.005,"57":0.01,"59":0.005,"60":0.005,"61":0.005,"64":0.005,"65":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"20":0.01,"21":0.005,"22":0.015,"23":0.01,"24":0.01,"25":0.045,"26":0.03,"27":0.025,"28":0.05,"29":0.09,"30":0.05,"31":0.05,"32":0.06,"33":0.075,"34":0.045,"35":0.115,"36":0.05,"37":0.05,"38":0.06,"39":0.05,"40":0.01,"41":0.02,"42":0.015,"43":0.035,"44":0.005,"45":0.005,"46":0.01,"52":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"1":0.005,"4":0.015,"5":0.015,"6":0.005,"7":0.01,"8":0.01,"9":0.025,"10":0.025,"11":0.015,"12":0.02,"13":0.04,"14":0.01,"15":0.025,"16":0.015,"17":0.03,"18":0.02,"19":0.015,"20":0.045,"21":0.02,"22":0.03,"23":0.02,"24":0.005,"25":0.03,"26":0.015,"27":0.005,"28":0.035,"29":0.015,"30":0.03,"31":0.025,"32":0.01,"33":0.015,"34":0.01,"35":0.04,"36":0.005,"37":0.01,"38":0.02,"39":0.01,"40":0.005,"41":0.025,"43":0.015,"44":0.005,"45":0.02,"46":0.02,"47":0.01,"49":0.005,"50":0.01,"51":0.005,"52":0.005,"54":0.01,"55":0.005,"56":0.005,"58":0.01,"59":0.005,"60":0.015,"62":0.005,"65":0.005,"66":0.01,"67":0.005,"68":0.005,"69":0.015,"71":0.005,"72":0.005,"75":0.015,"76":0.005,"77":0.005,"80":0.005,"81":0.005,"82":0.005,"90":0.005,"95":0.005,"99":0.005,"110":0.005,"113":0.005,"129":0.005,"193":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1717372800000,"validUntil":1719964800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":3,"actual":2,"trainingCount":5737,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2024","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":3.1605,"mean":7.9,"median":7,"bias":5.9,"maeMean":5.9,"maeMedian":5,"low":2,"high":19,"coverage":true,"width":17,"pitLower":0.045,"pitUpper":0.1,"empiricalMass":0.055,"logScore":2.900422093749666},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.638525,"mean":3.085,"median":3,"bias":1.085,"maeMean":1.085,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":6,"coverage":true,"width":6,"pitLower":0.235,"pitUpper":0.39,"empiricalMass":0.155,"logScore":1.8643301620628905},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":2.6503249999999996,"mean":7.485,"median":6,"bias":5.485,"maeMean":5.485,"maeMedian":4,"low":1,"high":17,"coverage":true,"width":16,"pitLower":0.055,"pitUpper":0.135,"empiricalMass":0.08,"logScore":2.5257286443082556},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":2.8005,"mean":6.22,"median":6,"bias":4.22,"maeMean":4.22,"maeMedian":4,"low":3,"high":11,"coverage":false,"width":8,"pitLower":0.03,"pitUpper":0.045,"empiricalMass":0.015,"logScore":4.199705077879927},"recentPoisson":{"crps":2.029725,"mean":5.145,"median":5,"bias":3.1449999999999996,"maeMean":3.1449999999999996,"maeMedian":3,"low":2,"high":9,"coverage":true,"width":7,"pitLower":0.035,"pitUpper":0.08,"empiricalMass":0.045,"logScore":3.101092789211817},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":1.3882499999999998,"mean":4.98,"median":4,"bias":2.9800000000000004,"maeMean":2.9800000000000004,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":13,"coverage":true,"width":13,"pitLower":0.18,"pitUpper":0.33,"empiricalMass":0.15,"logScore":1.8971199848858813}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.005,"1":0.04,"2":0.055,"3":0.115,"4":0.065,"5":0.09,"6":0.115,"7":0.09,"8":0.07,"9":0.07,"10":0.055,"11":0.045,"12":0.02,"13":0.045,"14":0.015,"15":0.015,"16":0.03,"18":0.005,"19":0.01,"20":0.01,"21":0.005,"22":0.01,"23":0.005,"24":0.005,"31":0.005,"41":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.055,"1":0.18,"2":0.155,"3":0.23,"4":0.155,"5":0.12,"6":0.06,"7":0.035,"8":0.01},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.02,"1":0.035,"2":0.08,"3":0.135,"4":0.115,"5":0.1,"6":0.07,"7":0.045,"8":0.06,"9":0.05,"10":0.06,"11":0.04,"12":0.035,"13":0.025,"14":0.02,"15":0.03,"16":0.005,"17":0.025,"18":0.005,"19":0.01,"21":0.005,"22":0.005,"23":0.005,"25":0.005,"27":0.005,"33":0.005,"41":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.005,"1":0.025,"2":0.015,"3":0.125,"4":0.09,"5":0.17,"6":0.13,"7":0.17,"8":0.085,"9":0.055,"10":0.05,"11":0.035,"12":0.035,"13":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"1":0.035,"2":0.045,"3":0.14,"4":0.18,"5":0.235,"6":0.13,"7":0.105,"8":0.05,"9":0.04,"10":0.025,"11":0.005,"12":0.005,"13":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.085,"1":0.095,"2":0.15,"3":0.095,"4":0.105,"5":0.09,"6":0.085,"7":0.08,"8":0.055,"9":0.015,"10":0.025,"11":0.055,"12":0.01,"13":0.015,"14":0.02,"15":0.01,"17":0.005,"20":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1717372800000,"validUntil":1719964800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5737,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2024","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.38815,"mean":1.04,"median":1,"bias":1.04,"maeMean":1.04,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.44,"empiricalMass":0.44,"logScore":0.8209805520698302},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.07147499999999998,"mean":0.305,"median":0,"bias":0.305,"maeMean":0.305,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.735,"empiricalMass":0.735,"logScore":0.3078847797693004},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.317225,"mean":0.965,"median":0,"bias":0.965,"maeMean":0.965,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.52,"empiricalMass":0.52,"logScore":0.6539264674066639},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.34767500000000007,"mean":0.795,"median":1,"bias":0.795,"maeMean":0.795,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.445,"empiricalMass":0.445,"logScore":0.8096809968158968},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.262875,"mean":0.675,"median":0,"bias":0.675,"maeMean":0.675,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.515,"empiricalMass":0.515,"logScore":0.6635883783184009},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.21805000000000002,"mean":0.67,"median":0,"bias":0.67,"maeMean":0.67,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.56,"empiricalMass":0.56,"logScore":0.579818495252942}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.44,"1":0.32,"2":0.125,"3":0.07,"4":0.015,"5":0.005,"6":0.015,"7":0.005,"10":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.735,"1":0.23,"2":0.03,"3":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.52,"1":0.22,"2":0.135,"3":0.07,"4":0.035,"5":0.01,"6":0.005,"9":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.445,"1":0.36,"2":0.155,"3":0.035,"4":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.515,"1":0.32,"2":0.145,"3":0.015,"4":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.56,"1":0.3,"2":0.075,"3":0.04,"4":0.025}}},{"issuedAt":1719964800000,"validUntil":1720051200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":2,"actual":2,"trainingCount":5767,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2024","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.77725,"mean":1.11,"median":1,"bias":-0.8899999999999999,"maeMean":0.8899999999999999,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.74,"pitUpper":0.895,"empiricalMass":0.155,"logScore":1.8643301620628905},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.889275,"mean":0.785,"median":1,"bias":-1.2149999999999999,"maeMean":1.2149999999999999,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.81,"pitUpper":0.95,"empiricalMass":0.14,"logScore":1.9661128563728327},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.760425,"mean":1.255,"median":1,"bias":-0.7450000000000001,"maeMean":0.7450000000000001,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.725,"pitUpper":0.87,"empiricalMass":0.145,"logScore":1.9310215365615626},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.33272499999999994,"mean":1.605,"median":1.5,"bias":-0.395,"maeMean":0.395,"maeMedian":0.5,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.5,"pitUpper":0.8,"empiricalMass":0.3,"logScore":1.2039728043259361},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.6919250000000001,"mean":1.025,"median":1,"bias":-0.9750000000000001,"maeMean":0.9750000000000001,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.75,"pitUpper":0.9,"empiricalMass":0.15,"logScore":1.8971199848858813},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.965525,"mean":0.865,"median":0,"bias":-1.135,"maeMean":1.135,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.785,"pitUpper":0.91,"empiricalMass":0.125,"logScore":2.0794415416798357}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.46,"1":0.28,"2":0.155,"3":0.045,"4":0.025,"5":0.005,"6":0.005,"7":0.01,"9":0.005,"11":0.005,"12":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.48,"1":0.33,"2":0.14,"3":0.035,"4":0.01,"6":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.455,"1":0.27,"2":0.145,"3":0.045,"4":0.055,"6":0.005,"7":0.015,"18":0.005,"23":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.19,"1":0.31,"2":0.3,"3":0.12,"4":0.065,"5":0.015},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.345,"1":0.405,"2":0.15,"3":0.08,"4":0.02},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.58,"1":0.205,"2":0.125,"3":0.035,"4":0.025,"5":0.005,"6":0.015,"8":0.005,"10":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1719964800000,"validUntil":1720051200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":3,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5767,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2024","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.010125000000000009,"mean":0.115,"median":0,"bias":0.115,"maeMean":0.115,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.9,"empiricalMass":0.9,"logScore":0.10536051565782628},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.006400000000000003,"mean":0.08,"median":0,"bias":0.08,"maeMean":0.08,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.92,"empiricalMass":0.92,"logScore":0.08338160893905101},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.012525000000000008,"mean":0.165,"median":0,"bias":0.165,"maeMean":0.165,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.895,"empiricalMass":0.895,"logScore":0.11093156070728166},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.038925000000000015,"mean":0.225,"median":0,"bias":0.225,"maeMean":0.225,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.805,"empiricalMass":0.805,"logScore":0.21691300156357363},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.027349999999999985,"mean":0.18,"median":0,"bias":0.18,"maeMean":0.18,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.835,"empiricalMass":0.835,"logScore":0.18032355413128162},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.004949999999999996,"mean":0.08,"median":0,"bias":0.08,"maeMean":0.08,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.93,"empiricalMass":0.93,"logScore":0.07257069283483537}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.9,"1":0.09,"2":0.005,"3":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.92,"1":0.08},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.895,"1":0.07,"2":0.02,"3":0.01,"5":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.805,"1":0.165,"2":0.03},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.835,"1":0.155,"2":0.005,"3":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.93,"1":0.065,"3":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1719964800000,"validUntil":1720051200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5767,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2024","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.00040000000000000105,"mean":0.02,"median":0,"bias":0.02,"maeMean":0.02,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.98,"empiricalMass":0.98,"logScore":0.020202707317519466},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.0000999999999999994,"mean":0.01,"median":0,"bias":0.01,"maeMean":0.01,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.99,"empiricalMass":0.99,"logScore":0.01005033585350145},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.00040000000000000105,"mean":0.02,"median":0,"bias":0.02,"maeMean":0.02,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.98,"empiricalMass":0.98,"logScore":0.020202707317519466},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.0000999999999999994,"mean":0.01,"median":0,"bias":0.01,"maeMean":0.01,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.99,"empiricalMass":0.99,"logScore":0.01005033585350145},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.003025,"mean":0.055,"median":0,"bias":0.055,"maeMean":0.055,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.945,"empiricalMass":0.945,"logScore":0.05657035148839435},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.00002499999999999985,"mean":0.005,"median":0,"bias":0.005,"maeMean":0.005,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.995,"empiricalMass":0.995,"logScore":0.005012541823544286}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.98,"1":0.02},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.99,"1":0.01},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.98,"1":0.02},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.99,"1":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.945,"1":0.055},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.995,"1":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1719964800000,"validUntil":1720569600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":2,"actual":8,"trainingCount":5767,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2024","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":1.6089250000000002,"mean":11.615,"median":8.5,"bias":3.615,"maeMean":3.615,"maeMedian":0.5,"low":2,"high":29,"coverage":true,"width":27,"pitLower":0.42,"pitUpper":0.5,"empiricalMass":0.08,"logScore":2.5257286443082556},"rollingETAS":{"crps":1.2993500000000002,"mean":6.46,"median":6,"bias":-1.54,"maeMean":1.54,"maeMedian":2,"low":2,"high":13,"coverage":true,"width":11,"pitLower":0.68,"pitUpper":0.79,"empiricalMass":0.11,"logScore":2.2072749131897207},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":1.476775,"mean":10.605,"median":9,"bias":2.6050000000000004,"maeMean":2.6050000000000004,"maeMedian":1,"low":3,"high":23,"coverage":true,"width":20,"pitLower":0.39,"pitUpper":0.46,"empiricalMass":0.07,"logScore":2.659260036932778},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":1.453775,"mean":10.615,"median":10,"bias":2.615,"maeMean":2.615,"maeMedian":2,"low":5,"high":17,"coverage":true,"width":12,"pitLower":0.16,"pitUpper":0.275,"empiricalMass":0.115,"logScore":2.162823150618887},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.7198499999999999,"mean":7.9,"median":8,"bias":-0.09999999999999964,"maeMean":0.09999999999999964,"maeMedian":0,"low":3,"high":12,"coverage":true,"width":9,"pitLower":0.455,"pitUpper":0.565,"empiricalMass":0.11,"logScore":2.2072749131897207},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":1.3756500000000003,"mean":7.59,"median":7,"bias":-0.41000000000000014,"maeMean":0.41000000000000014,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":17,"coverage":true,"width":17,"pitLower":0.555,"pitUpper":0.625,"empiricalMass":0.07,"logScore":2.659260036932778}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"1":0.03,"2":0.03,"3":0.03,"4":0.06,"5":0.075,"6":0.07,"7":0.125,"8":0.08,"9":0.045,"10":0.045,"11":0.03,"12":0.055,"13":0.045,"14":0.015,"15":0.045,"16":0.02,"17":0.025,"18":0.015,"19":0.02,"20":0.025,"21":0.02,"22":0.015,"23":0.005,"24":0.01,"26":0.005,"29":0.01,"30":0.01,"32":0.005,"36":0.005,"39":0.005,"43":0.005,"44":0.005,"48":0.005,"55":0.005,"73":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"1":0.01,"2":0.065,"3":0.11,"4":0.145,"5":0.15,"6":0.12,"7":0.08,"8":0.11,"9":0.06,"10":0.04,"11":0.02,"12":0.015,"13":0.03,"14":0.01,"15":0.01,"17":0.01,"20":0.005,"21":0.01},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"1":0.005,"2":0.025,"3":0.055,"4":0.09,"5":0.08,"6":0.07,"7":0.065,"8":0.07,"9":0.085,"10":0.065,"11":0.055,"12":0.045,"13":0.04,"14":0.045,"15":0.01,"16":0.01,"17":0.025,"18":0.01,"19":0.02,"20":0.03,"21":0.025,"22":0.02,"23":0.005,"24":0.005,"25":0.015,"27":0.015,"29":0.005,"32":0.005,"60":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"2":0.005,"3":0.005,"4":0.03,"5":0.025,"6":0.025,"7":0.07,"8":0.115,"9":0.12,"10":0.12,"11":0.12,"12":0.08,"13":0.07,"14":0.085,"15":0.055,"16":0.02,"17":0.025,"18":0.02,"19":0.005,"20":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"1":0.005,"2":0.005,"3":0.05,"4":0.08,"5":0.09,"6":0.09,"7":0.135,"8":0.11,"9":0.125,"10":0.125,"11":0.075,"12":0.065,"13":0.025,"14":0.01,"15":0.005,"16":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.075,"1":0.075,"2":0.08,"3":0.05,"4":0.065,"5":0.055,"6":0.055,"7":0.1,"8":0.07,"9":0.06,"10":0.065,"11":0.055,"12":0.035,"13":0.03,"14":0.015,"15":0.02,"16":0.035,"17":0.01,"19":0.005,"20":0.005,"23":0.015,"24":0.005,"25":0.005,"26":0.005,"27":0.005,"37":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1719964800000,"validUntil":1720569600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":3,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5767,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2024","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.56225,"mean":1.47,"median":1,"bias":1.47,"maeMean":1.47,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":6,"coverage":true,"width":6,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.38,"empiricalMass":0.38,"logScore":0.9675840262617056},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.23270000000000002,"mean":0.75,"median":0,"bias":0.75,"maeMean":0.75,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.565,"empiricalMass":0.565,"logScore":0.5709295478356962},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.507875,"mean":1.305,"median":1,"bias":1.305,"maeMean":1.305,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.405,"empiricalMass":0.405,"logScore":0.9038682118755978},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.781275,"mean":1.415,"median":1,"bias":1.415,"maeMean":1.415,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.225,"empiricalMass":0.225,"logScore":1.491654876777717},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.599875,"mean":1.175,"median":1,"bias":1.175,"maeMean":1.175,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.315,"empiricalMass":0.315,"logScore":1.155182640156504},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.43909999999999993,"mean":1.13,"median":1,"bias":1.13,"maeMean":1.13,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.425,"empiricalMass":0.425,"logScore":0.8556661100577202}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.38,"1":0.265,"2":0.17,"3":0.095,"4":0.03,"5":0.005,"6":0.015,"7":0.01,"8":0.015,"9":0.005,"10":0.005,"12":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.565,"1":0.24,"2":0.13,"3":0.035,"4":0.015,"5":0.005,"6":0.01},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.405,"1":0.27,"2":0.135,"3":0.095,"4":0.05,"5":0.02,"6":0.01,"8":0.015},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.225,"1":0.395,"2":0.2,"3":0.12,"4":0.045,"5":0.01,"6":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.315,"1":0.345,"2":0.22,"3":0.095,"4":0.02,"5":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.425,"1":0.3,"2":0.115,"3":0.085,"4":0.035,"5":0.035,"6":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1719964800000,"validUntil":1720569600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5767,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2024","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.02562500000000001,"mean":0.195,"median":0,"bias":0.195,"maeMean":0.195,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.845,"empiricalMass":0.845,"logScore":0.16841865162496325},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.0043249999999999955,"mean":0.075,"median":0,"bias":0.075,"maeMean":0.075,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.935,"empiricalMass":0.935,"logScore":0.06720874969344999},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.017424999999999996,"mean":0.165,"median":0,"bias":0.165,"maeMean":0.165,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.87,"empiricalMass":0.87,"logScore":0.13926206733350766},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.02762500000000001,"mean":0.185,"median":0,"bias":0.185,"maeMean":0.185,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.835,"empiricalMass":0.835,"logScore":0.18032355413128162},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.02562500000000001,"mean":0.165,"median":0,"bias":0.165,"maeMean":0.165,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.84,"empiricalMass":0.84,"logScore":0.1743533871447778},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.008525000000000005,"mean":0.115,"median":0,"bias":0.115,"maeMean":0.115,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.91,"empiricalMass":0.91,"logScore":0.09431067947124129}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.845,"1":0.115,"2":0.04},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.935,"1":0.055,"2":0.01},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.87,"1":0.11,"2":0.01,"3":0.005,"4":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.835,"1":0.145,"2":0.02},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.84,"1":0.155,"2":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.91,"1":0.07,"2":0.015,"3":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1719964800000,"validUntil":1722556800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":2,"actual":35,"trainingCount":5767,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2024","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":8.770625,"mean":54.445,"median":48.5,"bias":19.445,"maeMean":19.445,"maeMedian":13.5,"low":22,"high":97,"coverage":true,"width":75,"pitLower":0.185,"pitUpper":0.215,"empiricalMass":0.03,"logScore":3.506557897319982},"rollingETAS":{"crps":4.9361999999999995,"mean":27.37,"median":26,"bias":-7.629999999999999,"maeMean":7.629999999999999,"maeMedian":9,"low":16,"high":42,"coverage":true,"width":26,"pitLower":0.855,"pitUpper":0.865,"empiricalMass":0.01,"logScore":4.605170185988091},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":8.768775,"mean":54.765,"median":50,"bias":19.765,"maeMean":19.765,"maeMedian":15,"low":24,"high":111,"coverage":true,"width":87,"pitLower":0.215,"pitUpper":0.24,"empiricalMass":0.025,"logScore":3.6888794541139363},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":6.042725000000001,"mean":44.725,"median":44,"bias":9.725000000000001,"maeMean":9.725000000000001,"maeMedian":9,"low":34,"high":57,"coverage":true,"width":23,"pitLower":0.07,"pitUpper":0.105,"empiricalMass":0.035,"logScore":3.3524072174927233},"recentPoisson":{"crps":1.4744499999999996,"mean":33.16,"median":33,"bias":-1.8400000000000034,"maeMean":1.8400000000000034,"maeMedian":2,"low":24,"high":42,"coverage":true,"width":18,"pitLower":0.595,"pitUpper":0.675,"empiricalMass":0.08,"logScore":2.5257286443082556},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":4.610725,"mean":35.395,"median":31.5,"bias":0.3950000000000031,"maeMean":0.3950000000000031,"maeMedian":3.5,"low":8,"high":76,"coverage":true,"width":68,"pitLower":0.565,"pitUpper":0.6,"empiricalMass":0.035,"logScore":3.3524072174927233}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"11":0.005,"16":0.005,"17":0.01,"19":0.005,"20":0.005,"21":0.01,"22":0.01,"23":0.01,"25":0.005,"26":0.005,"27":0.015,"28":0.015,"29":0.01,"30":0.005,"31":0.01,"32":0.005,"33":0.015,"34":0.04,"35":0.03,"36":0.01,"37":0.02,"38":0.025,"39":0.005,"40":0.025,"41":0.02,"42":0.025,"43":0.045,"44":0.045,"45":0.02,"46":0.01,"47":0.02,"48":0.015,"49":0.015,"50":0.015,"51":0.05,"52":0.025,"53":0.005,"54":0.005,"55":0.02,"56":0.025,"57":0.025,"58":0.015,"59":0.015,"61":0.01,"62":0.025,"63":0.01,"65":0.015,"66":0.005,"67":0.01,"68":0.015,"69":0.01,"71":0.01,"72":0.02,"73":0.01,"74":0.005,"77":0.01,"79":0.005,"81":0.005,"82":0.005,"84":0.01,"86":0.005,"87":0.005,"90":0.005,"93":0.02,"95":0.005,"96":0.01,"97":0.005,"104":0.005,"107":0.005,"119":0.005,"124":0.005,"131":0.005,"132":0.005,"147":0.005,"157":0.005,"179":0.005,"230":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"11":0.005,"13":0.01,"14":0.01,"15":0.01,"16":0.02,"17":0.015,"18":0.06,"19":0.03,"20":0.05,"21":0.03,"22":0.06,"23":0.03,"24":0.045,"25":0.075,"26":0.055,"27":0.035,"28":0.035,"29":0.04,"30":0.065,"31":0.03,"32":0.05,"33":0.04,"34":0.055,"35":0.01,"36":0.01,"37":0.03,"38":0.005,"39":0.005,"40":0.02,"41":0.01,"42":0.02,"43":0.005,"44":0.005,"45":0.005,"47":0.005,"48":0.01,"52":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"20":0.005,"21":0.01,"22":0.015,"23":0.015,"24":0.015,"25":0.015,"26":0.02,"27":0.005,"28":0.01,"29":0.005,"30":0.025,"31":0.005,"32":0.015,"33":0.025,"34":0.03,"35":0.025,"36":0.025,"37":0.015,"38":0.03,"39":0.01,"40":0.035,"41":0.015,"42":0.005,"43":0.025,"44":0.025,"45":0.01,"46":0.01,"47":0.02,"48":0.025,"49":0.005,"50":0.02,"51":0.02,"52":0.04,"53":0.03,"54":0.01,"55":0.01,"56":0.015,"57":0.02,"58":0.015,"59":0.02,"60":0.015,"61":0.02,"62":0.015,"63":0.005,"64":0.005,"65":0.005,"66":0.01,"67":0.005,"68":0.01,"69":0.005,"70":0.015,"71":0.005,"72":0.01,"73":0.005,"74":0.005,"75":0.005,"77":0.01,"78":0.01,"80":0.005,"81":0.01,"82":0.01,"83":0.015,"86":0.01,"87":0.01,"88":0.005,"100":0.005,"101":0.005,"103":0.005,"104":0.005,"107":0.005,"111":0.01,"112":0.005,"122":0.005,"132":0.005,"140":0.01,"156":0.005,"160":0.005,"161":0.005,"162":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"27":0.005,"29":0.005,"33":0.02,"34":0.04,"35":0.035,"36":0.025,"37":0.03,"38":0.04,"39":0.065,"40":0.035,"41":0.03,"42":0.05,"43":0.065,"44":0.06,"45":0.055,"46":0.06,"47":0.06,"48":0.045,"49":0.045,"50":0.015,"51":0.03,"52":0.025,"53":0.03,"54":0.03,"55":0.015,"56":0.025,"57":0.015,"58":0.015,"59":0.005,"60":0.015,"61":0.005,"62":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"21":0.01,"22":0.015,"23":0.015,"24":0.03,"25":0.025,"26":0.035,"27":0.035,"28":0.03,"29":0.045,"30":0.07,"31":0.08,"32":0.03,"33":0.095,"34":0.08,"35":0.08,"36":0.04,"37":0.095,"38":0.04,"39":0.025,"40":0.04,"41":0.025,"42":0.025,"43":0.01,"44":0.005,"45":0.005,"46":0.01,"55":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"4":0.01,"6":0.02,"7":0.015,"8":0.01,"9":0.005,"10":0.01,"11":0.015,"12":0.025,"13":0.015,"14":0.01,"15":0.01,"16":0.01,"17":0.015,"18":0.02,"19":0.02,"20":0.02,"21":0.03,"22":0.02,"23":0.025,"24":0.03,"25":0.03,"26":0.025,"27":0.025,"28":0.04,"29":0.005,"30":0.015,"31":0.025,"32":0.02,"33":0.02,"34":0.025,"35":0.035,"36":0.005,"37":0.03,"38":0.025,"39":0.025,"40":0.01,"41":0.005,"42":0.015,"43":0.005,"44":0.005,"45":0.01,"46":0.015,"47":0.015,"48":0.01,"49":0.015,"50":0.015,"52":0.01,"53":0.015,"54":0.01,"55":0.015,"56":0.01,"58":0.005,"59":0.005,"60":0.005,"61":0.01,"63":0.005,"64":0.005,"65":0.01,"66":0.01,"68":0.005,"69":0.005,"72":0.015,"76":0.005,"77":0.01,"82":0.005,"83":0.01,"85":0.005,"96":0.005,"97":0.005,"101":0.005,"134":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1719964800000,"validUntil":1722556800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":3,"actual":6,"trainingCount":5767,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2024","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.9034499999999999,"mean":6.7,"median":6,"bias":0.7000000000000002,"maeMean":0.7000000000000002,"maeMedian":0,"low":1,"high":16,"coverage":true,"width":15,"pitLower":0.49,"pitUpper":0.605,"empiricalMass":0.115,"logScore":2.162823150618887},"rollingETAS":{"crps":1.7618749999999999,"mean":3.425,"median":3,"bias":-2.575,"maeMean":2.575,"maeMedian":3,"low":1,"high":7,"coverage":true,"width":6,"pitLower":0.845,"pitUpper":0.91,"empiricalMass":0.065,"logScore":2.7333680090865},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.980775,"mean":6.535,"median":5,"bias":0.5350000000000001,"maeMean":0.5350000000000001,"maeMedian":1,"low":2,"high":17,"coverage":true,"width":15,"pitLower":0.54,"pitUpper":0.625,"empiricalMass":0.085,"logScore":2.4651040224918206},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.6413,"mean":6.47,"median":7,"bias":0.46999999999999975,"maeMean":0.46999999999999975,"maeMedian":1,"low":2,"high":11,"coverage":true,"width":9,"pitLower":0.385,"pitUpper":0.495,"empiricalMass":0.11,"logScore":2.2072749131897207},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.7871250000000001,"mean":4.885,"median":5,"bias":-1.1150000000000002,"maeMean":1.1150000000000002,"maeMedian":1,"low":2,"high":8,"coverage":true,"width":6,"pitLower":0.64,"pitUpper":0.765,"empiricalMass":0.125,"logScore":2.0794415416798357},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":1.2975250000000003,"mean":5.065,"median":4,"bias":-0.9349999999999996,"maeMean":0.9349999999999996,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":13,"coverage":true,"width":13,"pitLower":0.615,"pitUpper":0.695,"empiricalMass":0.08,"logScore":2.5257286443082556}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.02,"1":0.075,"2":0.06,"3":0.1,"4":0.12,"5":0.115,"6":0.115,"7":0.085,"8":0.075,"9":0.035,"10":0.04,"11":0.03,"12":0.025,"13":0.02,"14":0.02,"15":0.005,"16":0.02,"18":0.005,"19":0.005,"21":0.005,"22":0.01,"23":0.005,"35":0.005,"37":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.045,"1":0.125,"2":0.195,"3":0.225,"4":0.135,"5":0.12,"6":0.065,"7":0.055,"8":0.015,"9":0.005,"10":0.01,"11":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.005,"1":0.04,"2":0.12,"3":0.135,"4":0.13,"5":0.11,"6":0.085,"7":0.095,"8":0.05,"9":0.055,"10":0.025,"11":0.015,"12":0.03,"13":0.02,"14":0.005,"15":0.005,"16":0.01,"17":0.02,"18":0.005,"19":0.01,"21":0.01,"22":0.005,"28":0.01,"30":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"1":0.01,"2":0.045,"3":0.055,"4":0.125,"5":0.15,"6":0.11,"7":0.18,"8":0.125,"9":0.075,"10":0.05,"11":0.05,"12":0.015,"13":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.005,"1":0.035,"2":0.1,"3":0.165,"4":0.13,"5":0.205,"6":0.125,"7":0.11,"8":0.075,"9":0.025,"10":0.02,"13":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.09,"1":0.12,"2":0.13,"3":0.12,"4":0.09,"5":0.065,"6":0.08,"7":0.08,"8":0.035,"9":0.04,"10":0.02,"11":0.035,"12":0.025,"13":0.02,"14":0.02,"15":0.01,"16":0.005,"17":0.005,"18":0.005,"26":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1719964800000,"validUntil":1722556800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":4,"actual":2,"trainingCount":5767,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2024","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.9544,"mean":0.81,"median":0,"bias":-1.19,"maeMean":1.19,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.79,"pitUpper":0.905,"empiricalMass":0.115,"logScore":2.162823150618887},"rollingETAS":{"crps":1.3138,"mean":0.4,"median":0,"bias":-1.6,"maeMean":1.6,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.93,"pitUpper":1,"empiricalMass":0.07,"logScore":2.659260036932778},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":1.014475,"mean":0.735,"median":0,"bias":-1.2650000000000001,"maeMean":1.2650000000000001,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.84,"pitUpper":0.93,"empiricalMass":0.09,"logScore":2.4079456086518722},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.8619249999999999,"mean":0.785,"median":1,"bias":-1.2149999999999999,"maeMean":1.2149999999999999,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.79,"pitUpper":0.95,"empiricalMass":0.16,"logScore":1.8325814637483102},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.970425,"mean":0.685,"median":1,"bias":-1.315,"maeMean":1.315,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.86,"pitUpper":0.98,"empiricalMass":0.12,"logScore":2.120263536200091},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":1.0183499999999999,"mean":0.67,"median":0,"bias":-1.33,"maeMean":1.33,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.835,"pitUpper":0.96,"empiricalMass":0.125,"logScore":2.0794415416798357}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.565,"1":0.225,"2":0.115,"3":0.055,"4":0.02,"5":0.015,"7":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.67,"1":0.26,"2":0.07},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.55,"1":0.29,"2":0.09,"3":0.035,"4":0.02,"5":0.01,"6":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.485,"1":0.305,"2":0.16,"3":0.04,"4":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.48,"1":0.38,"2":0.12,"3":0.015,"4":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.565,"1":0.27,"2":0.125,"3":0.025,"4":0.01,"7":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1722556800000,"validUntil":1722643200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":2,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5802,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2024","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.579175,"mean":1.705,"median":1,"bias":1.705,"maeMean":1.705,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":6,"coverage":true,"width":6,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.365,"empiricalMass":0.365,"logScore":1.0078579253996456},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.34662499999999996,"mean":0.945,"median":1,"bias":0.945,"maeMean":0.945,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.475,"empiricalMass":0.475,"logScore":0.7444404749474959},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.6745749999999999,"mean":1.755,"median":1,"bias":1.755,"maeMean":1.755,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.34,"empiricalMass":0.34,"logScore":1.0788096613719298},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.791025,"mean":1.545,"median":1,"bias":1.545,"maeMean":1.545,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.275,"empiricalMass":0.275,"logScore":1.2909841813155656},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.568025,"mean":1.145,"median":1,"bias":1.145,"maeMean":1.145,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.315,"empiricalMass":0.315,"logScore":1.155182640156504},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.30800000000000005,"mean":1.1,"median":0,"bias":1.1,"maeMean":1.1,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.54,"empiricalMass":0.54,"logScore":0.616186139423817}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.365,"1":0.315,"2":0.125,"3":0.065,"4":0.04,"5":0.015,"6":0.025,"7":0.02,"8":0.015,"11":0.005,"14":0.005,"35":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.475,"1":0.28,"2":0.145,"3":0.075,"4":0.015,"6":0.005,"12":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.34,"1":0.25,"2":0.19,"3":0.11,"4":0.05,"5":0.015,"6":0.01,"7":0.005,"8":0.005,"9":0.005,"11":0.005,"12":0.005,"21":0.005,"24":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.275,"1":0.265,"2":0.26,"3":0.09,"4":0.07,"5":0.03,"6":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.315,"1":0.395,"2":0.18,"3":0.06,"4":0.04,"5":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.54,"1":0.22,"2":0.085,"3":0.06,"4":0.04,"5":0.01,"6":0.025,"7":0.005,"8":0.01,"11":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1722556800000,"validUntil":1722643200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":3,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5802,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2024","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.025474999999999998,"mean":0.235,"median":0,"bias":0.235,"maeMean":0.235,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.85,"empiricalMass":0.85,"logScore":0.16251892949777494},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.01235,"mean":0.13,"median":0,"bias":0.13,"maeMean":0.13,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.89,"empiricalMass":0.89,"logScore":0.11653381625595151},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.020474999999999993,"mean":0.235,"median":0,"bias":0.235,"maeMean":0.235,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.865,"empiricalMass":0.865,"logScore":0.14502577205025774},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.044999999999999984,"mean":0.24,"median":0,"bias":0.24,"maeMean":0.24,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.79,"empiricalMass":0.79,"logScore":0.23572233352106983},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.035824999999999996,"mean":0.225,"median":0,"bias":0.225,"maeMean":0.225,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.815,"empiricalMass":0.815,"logScore":0.2045671657412744},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.01469999999999999,"mean":0.15,"median":0,"bias":0.15,"maeMean":0.15,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.88,"empiricalMass":0.88,"logScore":0.12783337150988489}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.85,"1":0.1,"2":0.03,"3":0.015,"6":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.89,"1":0.095,"2":0.01,"3":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.865,"1":0.095,"2":0.025,"4":0.005,"5":0.005,"9":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.79,"1":0.18,"2":0.03},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.815,"1":0.145,"2":0.04},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.88,"1":0.105,"2":0.01,"5":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1722556800000,"validUntil":1722643200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5802,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2024","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.0012500000000000011,"mean":0.04,"median":0,"bias":0.04,"maeMean":0.04,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.965,"empiricalMass":0.965,"logScore":0.03562717764315116},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.0000999999999999994,"mean":0.01,"median":0,"bias":0.01,"maeMean":0.01,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.99,"empiricalMass":0.99,"logScore":0.01005033585350145},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.0012500000000000011,"mean":0.04,"median":0,"bias":0.04,"maeMean":0.04,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.965,"empiricalMass":0.965,"logScore":0.03562717764315116},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.0016000000000000042,"mean":0.04,"median":0,"bias":0.04,"maeMean":0.04,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.96,"empiricalMass":0.96,"logScore":0.040821994520255166},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.0000999999999999994,"mean":0.01,"median":0,"bias":0.01,"maeMean":0.01,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.99,"empiricalMass":0.99,"logScore":0.01005033585350145},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.000899999999999998,"mean":0.03,"median":0,"bias":0.03,"maeMean":0.03,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.97,"empiricalMass":0.97,"logScore":0.030459207484708574}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.965,"1":0.03,"2":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.99,"1":0.01},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.965,"1":0.03,"2":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.96,"1":0.04},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.99,"1":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.97,"1":0.03}}},{"issuedAt":1722556800000,"validUntil":1723161600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":2,"actual":6,"trainingCount":5802,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2024","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":3.4544749999999995,"mean":13.845,"median":11,"bias":7.845000000000001,"maeMean":7.845000000000001,"maeMedian":5,"low":3,"high":37,"coverage":true,"width":34,"pitLower":0.145,"pitUpper":0.2,"empiricalMass":0.055,"logScore":2.900422093749666},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.8117500000000002,"mean":7.05,"median":7,"bias":1.0499999999999998,"maeMean":1.0499999999999998,"maeMedian":1,"low":2,"high":13,"coverage":true,"width":11,"pitLower":0.315,"pitUpper":0.475,"empiricalMass":0.16,"logScore":1.8325814637483102},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":3.3436000000000003,"mean":13.36,"median":11,"bias":7.359999999999999,"maeMean":7.359999999999999,"maeMedian":5,"low":3,"high":32,"coverage":true,"width":29,"pitLower":0.15,"pitUpper":0.215,"empiricalMass":0.065,"logScore":2.7333680090865},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":2.5597000000000003,"mean":9.99,"median":10,"bias":3.99,"maeMean":3.99,"maeMedian":4,"low":5,"high":15,"coverage":true,"width":10,"pitLower":0.075,"pitUpper":0.13,"empiricalMass":0.055,"logScore":2.900422093749666},"recentPoisson":{"crps":1.4220250000000003,"mean":8.395,"median":9,"bias":2.3949999999999996,"maeMean":2.3949999999999996,"maeMedian":3,"low":3,"high":13,"coverage":true,"width":10,"pitLower":0.175,"pitUpper":0.275,"empiricalMass":0.1,"logScore":2.3025850929940455},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":1.3346999999999998,"mean":8.02,"median":6,"bias":2.0199999999999996,"maeMean":2.0199999999999996,"maeMedian":0,"low":1,"high":21,"coverage":true,"width":20,"pitLower":0.435,"pitUpper":0.54,"empiricalMass":0.105,"logScore":2.2537949288246137}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.005,"1":0.005,"2":0.02,"3":0.025,"4":0.055,"5":0.035,"6":0.055,"7":0.08,"8":0.04,"9":0.045,"10":0.08,"11":0.085,"12":0.035,"13":0.075,"14":0.045,"15":0.025,"16":0.045,"17":0.025,"18":0.01,"19":0.01,"20":0.02,"21":0.025,"22":0.02,"23":0.02,"24":0.01,"25":0.01,"27":0.005,"28":0.02,"29":0.005,"31":0.005,"33":0.005,"37":0.005,"38":0.005,"39":0.005,"40":0.015,"41":0.005,"45":0.005,"55":0.005,"66":0.005,"77":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"1":0.03,"2":0.06,"3":0.06,"4":0.08,"5":0.085,"6":0.16,"7":0.105,"8":0.115,"9":0.07,"10":0.11,"11":0.045,"12":0.025,"13":0.025,"14":0.005,"16":0.005,"17":0.005,"18":0.01,"19":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.015,"1":0.02,"2":0.005,"3":0.01,"4":0.05,"5":0.05,"6":0.065,"7":0.045,"8":0.05,"9":0.085,"10":0.065,"11":0.065,"12":0.07,"13":0.045,"14":0.06,"15":0.01,"16":0.045,"17":0.035,"18":0.015,"19":0.02,"20":0.015,"21":0.02,"22":0.015,"23":0.005,"24":0.015,"25":0.01,"26":0.005,"27":0.015,"28":0.005,"29":0.005,"30":0.01,"32":0.005,"34":0.01,"37":0.005,"40":0.005,"41":0.005,"42":0.005,"45":0.005,"50":0.005,"51":0.005,"62":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"1":0.005,"3":0.015,"4":0.025,"5":0.03,"6":0.055,"7":0.075,"8":0.085,"9":0.14,"10":0.155,"11":0.095,"12":0.12,"13":0.085,"14":0.06,"15":0.01,"16":0.02,"17":0.015,"18":0.005,"20":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"1":0.005,"2":0.01,"3":0.04,"4":0.055,"5":0.065,"6":0.1,"7":0.11,"8":0.105,"9":0.165,"10":0.095,"11":0.1,"12":0.075,"13":0.035,"14":0.015,"15":0.015,"17":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.02,"1":0.105,"2":0.065,"3":0.1,"4":0.065,"5":0.08,"6":0.105,"7":0.06,"8":0.045,"9":0.045,"10":0.04,"11":0.035,"12":0.03,"13":0.02,"14":0.03,"15":0.02,"16":0.025,"17":0.02,"18":0.015,"19":0.015,"20":0.005,"21":0.005,"22":0.01,"24":0.005,"26":0.015,"30":0.005,"32":0.005,"34":0.005,"35":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1722556800000,"validUntil":1723161600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":3,"actual":2,"trainingCount":5802,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2024","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.5295749999999999,"mean":1.675,"median":1,"bias":-0.32499999999999996,"maeMean":0.32499999999999996,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":6,"coverage":true,"width":6,"pitLower":0.585,"pitUpper":0.79,"empiricalMass":0.205,"logScore":1.584745299843729},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.69335,"mean":0.98,"median":1,"bias":-1.02,"maeMean":1.02,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.72,"pitUpper":0.92,"empiricalMass":0.2,"logScore":1.6094379124341003},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.5255500000000001,"mean":1.71,"median":1,"bias":-0.29000000000000004,"maeMean":0.29000000000000004,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":6,"coverage":true,"width":6,"pitLower":0.58,"pitUpper":0.77,"empiricalMass":0.19,"logScore":1.6607312068216509},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.36224999999999996,"mean":1.44,"median":1,"bias":-0.56,"maeMean":0.56,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.53,"pitUpper":0.835,"empiricalMass":0.305,"logScore":1.1874435023747254},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.5625499999999999,"mean":1.15,"median":1,"bias":-0.8500000000000001,"maeMean":0.8500000000000001,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.67,"pitUpper":0.9,"empiricalMass":0.23,"logScore":1.4696759700589417},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.704875,"mean":1.165,"median":1,"bias":-0.835,"maeMean":0.835,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.695,"pitUpper":0.845,"empiricalMass":0.15,"logScore":1.8971199848858813}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.33,"1":0.255,"2":0.205,"3":0.07,"4":0.05,"5":0.025,"6":0.025,"7":0.015,"8":0.015,"10":0.01},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.41,"1":0.31,"2":0.2,"3":0.06,"4":0.015,"6":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.325,"1":0.255,"2":0.19,"3":0.105,"4":0.04,"5":0.02,"6":0.015,"7":0.025,"8":0.01,"9":0.005,"11":0.01},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.23,"1":0.3,"2":0.305,"3":0.13,"4":0.035},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.32,"1":0.35,"2":0.23,"3":0.065,"4":0.03,"5":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.435,"1":0.26,"2":0.15,"3":0.07,"4":0.05,"5":0.025,"6":0.005,"8":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1722556800000,"validUntil":1723161600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":4,"actual":1,"trainingCount":5802,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2024","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.691925,"mean":0.225,"median":0,"bias":-0.775,"maeMean":0.775,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.83,"pitUpper":0.945,"empiricalMass":0.115,"logScore":2.162823150618887},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.81,"mean":0.1,"median":0,"bias":-0.9,"maeMean":0.9,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0.9,"pitUpper":1,"empiricalMass":0.1,"logScore":2.3025850929940455},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.7574000000000001,"mean":0.16,"median":0,"bias":-0.84,"maeMean":0.84,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0.87,"pitUpper":0.98,"empiricalMass":0.11,"logScore":2.2072749131897207},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.570125,"mean":0.255,"median":0,"bias":-0.745,"maeMean":0.745,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0.755,"pitUpper":0.99,"empiricalMass":0.235,"logScore":1.448169764837978},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.714125,"mean":0.165,"median":0,"bias":-0.835,"maeMean":0.835,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0.845,"pitUpper":0.99,"empiricalMass":0.145,"logScore":1.9310215365615626},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.83745,"mean":0.1,"median":0,"bias":-0.9,"maeMean":0.9,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0.915,"pitUpper":0.985,"empiricalMass":0.07,"logScore":2.659260036932778}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.83,"1":0.115,"2":0.055},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.9,"1":0.1},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.87,"1":0.11,"2":0.01,"3":0.01},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.755,"1":0.235,"2":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.845,"1":0.145,"2":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.915,"1":0.07,"2":0.015}}},{"issuedAt":1722556800000,"validUntil":1725148800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":2,"actual":23,"trainingCount":5802,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2024","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":21.691649999999996,"mean":60.11,"median":52,"bias":37.11,"maeMean":37.11,"maeMedian":29,"low":29,"high":126,"coverage":false,"width":97,"pitLower":0.015,"pitUpper":0.015,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"rollingETAS":{"crps":3.4859,"mean":29.43,"median":28,"bias":6.43,"maeMean":6.43,"maeMedian":5,"low":18,"high":42,"coverage":true,"width":24,"pitLower":0.18,"pitUpper":0.215,"empiricalMass":0.035,"logScore":3.3524072174927233},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":22.150799999999997,"mean":58.63,"median":52,"bias":35.63,"maeMean":35.63,"maeMedian":29,"low":29,"high":109,"coverage":false,"width":80,"pitLower":0.01,"pitUpper":0.02,"empiricalMass":0.01,"logScore":4.605170185988091},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":17.9,"mean":44.7,"median":45,"bias":21.700000000000003,"maeMean":21.700000000000003,"maeMedian":22,"low":34,"high":56,"coverage":false,"width":22,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentPoisson":{"crps":8.83995,"mean":35.05,"median":35,"bias":12.049999999999997,"maeMean":12.049999999999997,"maeMedian":12,"low":25,"high":44,"coverage":false,"width":19,"pitLower":0.02,"pitUpper":0.03,"empiricalMass":0.01,"logScore":4.605170185988091},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":6.341899999999999,"mean":35.54,"median":32,"bias":12.54,"maeMean":12.54,"maeMedian":9,"low":9,"high":74,"coverage":true,"width":65,"pitLower":0.28,"pitUpper":0.295,"empiricalMass":0.015,"logScore":4.199705077879927}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"20":0.005,"22":0.01,"24":0.01,"25":0.005,"26":0.005,"27":0.005,"29":0.015,"30":0.02,"31":0.015,"32":0.01,"33":0.025,"34":0.02,"35":0.03,"36":0.02,"37":0.035,"38":0.025,"40":0.01,"41":0.005,"42":0.04,"43":0.02,"44":0.005,"45":0.02,"46":0.035,"47":0.025,"48":0.015,"49":0.02,"50":0.015,"51":0.025,"52":0.015,"53":0.025,"54":0.025,"55":0.01,"56":0.015,"57":0.005,"58":0.02,"59":0.025,"60":0.015,"61":0.015,"63":0.025,"64":0.01,"65":0.02,"66":0.015,"67":0.005,"68":0.005,"69":0.02,"71":0.01,"73":0.01,"75":0.005,"76":0.02,"77":0.01,"78":0.01,"80":0.015,"81":0.01,"84":0.005,"85":0.005,"88":0.005,"90":0.005,"92":0.005,"97":0.005,"98":0.005,"100":0.01,"101":0.005,"104":0.005,"106":0.005,"107":0.005,"109":0.005,"112":0.005,"118":0.005,"120":0.005,"122":0.005,"123":0.005,"126":0.005,"128":0.01,"136":0.01,"137":0.005,"152":0.01,"176":0.005,"184":0.005,"191":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"13":0.005,"14":0.01,"15":0.015,"17":0.005,"18":0.03,"19":0.015,"20":0.035,"21":0.03,"22":0.035,"23":0.035,"24":0.06,"25":0.05,"26":0.045,"27":0.08,"28":0.055,"29":0.065,"30":0.06,"32":0.05,"33":0.015,"34":0.05,"35":0.03,"36":0.045,"37":0.04,"38":0.03,"39":0.015,"40":0.025,"41":0.005,"42":0.015,"43":0.005,"45":0.005,"46":0.005,"47":0.01,"48":0.005,"50":0.005,"52":0.005,"53":0.005,"56":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"18":0.005,"22":0.005,"23":0.01,"25":0.005,"26":0.005,"27":0.005,"28":0.005,"29":0.025,"30":0.01,"31":0.01,"32":0.015,"33":0.01,"34":0.02,"35":0.025,"36":0.02,"37":0.015,"38":0.015,"39":0.015,"40":0.01,"41":0.015,"42":0.02,"43":0.035,"44":0.03,"45":0.02,"46":0.025,"47":0.02,"48":0.015,"49":0.02,"50":0.025,"51":0.02,"52":0.035,"53":0.005,"54":0.03,"55":0.01,"56":0.005,"57":0.02,"58":0.04,"59":0.01,"60":0.02,"61":0.015,"63":0.015,"64":0.015,"65":0.005,"67":0.025,"68":0.015,"69":0.015,"70":0.015,"71":0.01,"72":0.015,"73":0.005,"75":0.005,"76":0.005,"77":0.01,"78":0.01,"79":0.01,"81":0.005,"82":0.005,"83":0.01,"86":0.005,"88":0.005,"91":0.005,"92":0.01,"93":0.005,"94":0.02,"95":0.005,"96":0.015,"98":0.005,"103":0.005,"107":0.005,"109":0.005,"112":0.005,"118":0.005,"119":0.005,"122":0.005,"123":0.005,"125":0.005,"126":0.005,"144":0.005,"161":0.005,"191":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"26":0.005,"28":0.005,"29":0.005,"31":0.005,"32":0.005,"33":0.005,"34":0.025,"35":0.01,"36":0.03,"37":0.05,"38":0.04,"39":0.05,"40":0.04,"41":0.065,"42":0.055,"43":0.045,"44":0.045,"45":0.055,"46":0.06,"47":0.08,"48":0.07,"49":0.05,"50":0.025,"51":0.03,"52":0.015,"53":0.015,"54":0.035,"55":0.015,"56":0.015,"57":0.015,"59":0.02,"60":0.005,"65":0.005,"68":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"18":0.005,"21":0.005,"22":0.01,"23":0.01,"24":0.015,"25":0.005,"26":0.015,"27":0.025,"28":0.02,"29":0.05,"30":0.055,"31":0.05,"32":0.075,"33":0.06,"34":0.075,"35":0.055,"36":0.085,"37":0.055,"38":0.065,"39":0.06,"40":0.035,"41":0.03,"42":0.06,"43":0.02,"44":0.01,"45":0.005,"46":0.005,"47":0.015,"48":0.005,"49":0.01,"50":0.005,"59":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"1":0.005,"3":0.005,"7":0.005,"8":0.02,"9":0.015,"10":0.01,"11":0.005,"12":0.02,"13":0.005,"14":0.025,"15":0.025,"16":0.005,"17":0.01,"18":0.025,"19":0.02,"20":0.01,"21":0.04,"22":0.03,"23":0.015,"24":0.02,"25":0.025,"26":0.02,"27":0.03,"28":0.03,"29":0.01,"30":0.04,"31":0.01,"32":0.025,"33":0.02,"34":0.02,"35":0.015,"36":0.01,"37":0.02,"38":0.02,"39":0.035,"40":0.01,"41":0.01,"42":0.02,"43":0.01,"44":0.03,"45":0.03,"46":0.01,"47":0.015,"48":0.025,"51":0.01,"52":0.005,"53":0.01,"54":0.01,"55":0.01,"56":0.005,"57":0.005,"58":0.005,"59":0.005,"60":0.02,"61":0.015,"62":0.005,"63":0.015,"64":0.005,"67":0.01,"69":0.005,"74":0.01,"76":0.01,"77":0.005,"79":0.005,"85":0.01,"90":0.005,"92":0.005,"103":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1722556800000,"validUntil":1725148800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":3,"actual":4,"trainingCount":5802,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2024","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":1.4769999999999999,"mean":7.47,"median":6,"bias":3.4699999999999998,"maeMean":3.4699999999999998,"maeMedian":2,"low":1,"high":18,"coverage":true,"width":17,"pitLower":0.21,"pitUpper":0.345,"empiricalMass":0.135,"logScore":2.0024805005437076},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.6182749999999999,"mean":3.585,"median":3,"bias":-0.41500000000000004,"maeMean":0.41500000000000004,"maeMedian":1,"low":1,"high":7,"coverage":true,"width":6,"pitLower":0.525,"pitUpper":0.635,"empiricalMass":0.11,"logScore":2.2072749131897207},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":1.4483000000000001,"mean":7.3,"median":6,"bias":3.3,"maeMean":3.3,"maeMedian":2,"low":2,"high":17,"coverage":true,"width":15,"pitLower":0.2,"pitUpper":0.31,"empiricalMass":0.11,"logScore":2.2072749131897207},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":1.28415,"mean":6.24,"median":6,"bias":2.24,"maeMean":2.24,"maeMedian":2,"low":2,"high":10,"coverage":true,"width":8,"pitLower":0.155,"pitUpper":0.265,"empiricalMass":0.11,"logScore":2.2072749131897207},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.6407499999999999,"mean":5.14,"median":5,"bias":1.1399999999999997,"maeMean":1.1399999999999997,"maeMedian":1,"low":2,"high":9,"coverage":true,"width":7,"pitLower":0.215,"pitUpper":0.41,"empiricalMass":0.195,"logScore":1.6347557204183902},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.8283749999999999,"mean":5.415,"median":4.5,"bias":1.415,"maeMean":1.415,"maeMedian":0.5,"low":1,"high":13,"coverage":true,"width":12,"pitLower":0.395,"pitUpper":0.5,"empiricalMass":0.105,"logScore":2.2537949288246137}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.025,"1":0.03,"2":0.065,"3":0.09,"4":0.135,"5":0.1,"6":0.08,"7":0.085,"8":0.105,"9":0.05,"10":0.03,"11":0.015,"12":0.015,"13":0.04,"14":0.02,"15":0.02,"16":0.025,"17":0.01,"18":0.015,"19":0.01,"20":0.005,"21":0.005,"22":0.005,"23":0.005,"24":0.005,"27":0.005,"35":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.045,"1":0.165,"2":0.135,"3":0.18,"4":0.11,"5":0.18,"6":0.1,"7":0.035,"8":0.035,"9":0.005,"10":0.01},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.01,"1":0.035,"2":0.03,"3":0.125,"4":0.11,"5":0.115,"6":0.15,"7":0.065,"8":0.05,"9":0.065,"10":0.045,"11":0.02,"12":0.045,"13":0.025,"14":0.015,"15":0.01,"16":0.025,"17":0.01,"18":0.015,"19":0.005,"20":0.02,"21":0.005,"28":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.01,"1":0.02,"2":0.045,"3":0.08,"4":0.11,"5":0.145,"6":0.135,"7":0.135,"8":0.115,"9":0.105,"10":0.05,"11":0.02,"12":0.015,"13":0.005,"14":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.01,"1":0.03,"2":0.07,"3":0.105,"4":0.195,"5":0.215,"6":0.13,"7":0.09,"8":0.075,"9":0.045,"10":0.02,"11":0.01,"15":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.04,"1":0.05,"2":0.145,"3":0.16,"4":0.105,"5":0.13,"6":0.085,"7":0.045,"8":0.06,"9":0.045,"10":0.02,"11":0.025,"12":0.025,"13":0.02,"15":0.02,"16":0.005,"17":0.01,"20":0.005,"26":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1722556800000,"validUntil":1725148800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":4,"actual":1,"trainingCount":5802,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2024","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.34287499999999993,"mean":0.905,"median":0,"bias":-0.09499999999999997,"maeMean":0.09499999999999997,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.525,"pitUpper":0.765,"empiricalMass":0.24,"logScore":1.4271163556401458},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.4574750000000001,"mean":0.465,"median":0,"bias":-0.5349999999999999,"maeMean":0.5349999999999999,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.67,"pitUpper":0.915,"empiricalMass":0.245,"logScore":1.40649706843741},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.34077500000000005,"mean":0.825,"median":0,"bias":-0.17500000000000004,"maeMean":0.17500000000000004,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.53,"pitUpper":0.77,"empiricalMass":0.24,"logScore":1.4271163556401458},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.228425,"mean":0.855,"median":1,"bias":-0.14500000000000002,"maeMean":0.14500000000000002,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.43,"pitUpper":0.8,"empiricalMass":0.37,"logScore":0.9942522733438669},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.26062499999999994,"mean":0.735,"median":1,"bias":-0.265,"maeMean":0.265,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.48,"pitUpper":0.83,"empiricalMass":0.35,"logScore":1.0498221244986778},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.385775,"mean":0.655,"median":0,"bias":-0.345,"maeMean":0.345,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.6,"pitUpper":0.85,"empiricalMass":0.25,"logScore":1.3862943611198906}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.525,"1":0.24,"2":0.14,"3":0.055,"4":0.01,"5":0.01,"6":0.01,"7":0.01},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.67,"1":0.245,"2":0.05,"3":0.025,"4":0.005,"5":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.53,"1":0.24,"2":0.155,"3":0.04,"4":0.025,"5":0.005,"6":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.43,"1":0.37,"2":0.145,"3":0.035,"4":0.01,"5":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.48,"1":0.35,"2":0.135,"3":0.025,"4":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.6,"1":0.25,"2":0.095,"3":0.05,"13":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1725148800000,"validUntil":1725235200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":2,"actual":1,"trainingCount":5825,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2024","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.290925,"mean":1.075,"median":1,"bias":0.07499999999999996,"maeMean":0.07499999999999996,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.445,"pitUpper":0.735,"empiricalMass":0.29,"logScore":1.2378743560016174},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.30410000000000004,"mean":0.92,"median":1,"bias":-0.07999999999999996,"maeMean":0.07999999999999996,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.48,"pitUpper":0.745,"empiricalMass":0.265,"logScore":1.3280254529959148},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.3349,"mean":1.28,"median":1,"bias":0.28,"maeMean":0.28,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.455,"pitUpper":0.7,"empiricalMass":0.245,"logScore":1.40649706843741},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.25795,"mean":1.46,"median":1,"bias":0.45999999999999996,"maeMean":0.45999999999999996,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.21,"pitUpper":0.57,"empiricalMass":0.36,"logScore":1.0216512475319814},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.24544999999999995,"mean":1.21,"median":1,"bias":0.20999999999999996,"maeMean":0.20999999999999996,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.33,"pitUpper":0.655,"empiricalMass":0.325,"logScore":1.1239300966523995},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.33262499999999995,"mean":1.135,"median":1,"bias":0.135,"maeMean":0.135,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.48,"pitUpper":0.73,"empiricalMass":0.25,"logScore":1.3862943611198906}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.445,"1":0.29,"2":0.135,"3":0.065,"4":0.03,"5":0.02,"6":0.005,"7":0.01},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.48,"1":0.265,"2":0.175,"3":0.035,"4":0.03,"5":0.01,"6":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.455,"1":0.245,"2":0.155,"3":0.05,"4":0.03,"5":0.02,"6":0.015,"7":0.01,"8":0.01,"10":0.005,"13":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.21,"1":0.36,"2":0.27,"3":0.105,"4":0.04,"5":0.005,"6":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.33,"1":0.325,"2":0.22,"3":0.085,"4":0.025,"5":0.01,"8":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.48,"1":0.25,"2":0.135,"3":0.055,"4":0.035,"6":0.025,"7":0.005,"8":0.01,"9":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1725148800000,"validUntil":1725235200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":3,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5825,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2024","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.010225000000000012,"mean":0.115,"median":0,"bias":0.115,"maeMean":0.115,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.9,"empiricalMass":0.9,"logScore":0.10536051565782628},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.028999999999999998,"mean":0.18,"median":0,"bias":0.18,"maeMean":0.18,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.83,"empiricalMass":0.83,"logScore":0.18632957819149348},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.015399999999999997,"mean":0.16,"median":0,"bias":0.16,"maeMean":0.16,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.88,"empiricalMass":0.88,"logScore":0.12783337150988489},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.026225,"mean":0.185,"median":0,"bias":0.185,"maeMean":0.185,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.84,"empiricalMass":0.84,"logScore":0.1743533871447778},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.025824999999999987,"mean":0.175,"median":0,"bias":0.175,"maeMean":0.175,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.84,"empiricalMass":0.84,"logScore":0.1743533871447778},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.023749999999999993,"mean":0.19,"median":0,"bias":0.19,"maeMean":0.19,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.85,"empiricalMass":0.85,"logScore":0.16251892949777494}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.9,"1":0.085,"2":0.015},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.83,"1":0.16,"2":0.01},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.88,"1":0.09,"2":0.02,"3":0.01},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.84,"1":0.135,"2":0.025},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.84,"1":0.145,"2":0.015},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.85,"1":0.115,"2":0.03,"3":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1725148800000,"validUntil":1725235200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5825,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2024","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.00002499999999999985,"mean":0.005,"median":0,"bias":0.005,"maeMean":0.005,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.995,"empiricalMass":0.995,"logScore":0.005012541823544286},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.0016000000000000042,"mean":0.04,"median":0,"bias":0.04,"maeMean":0.04,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.96,"empiricalMass":0.96,"logScore":0.040821994520255166},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.0006250000000000006,"mean":0.025,"median":0,"bias":0.025,"maeMean":0.025,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.975,"empiricalMass":0.975,"logScore":0.025317807984289897},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.0012250000000000039,"mean":0.035,"median":0,"bias":0.035,"maeMean":0.035,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.965,"empiricalMass":0.965,"logScore":0.03562717764315116},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.002024999999999999,"mean":0.045,"median":0,"bias":0.045,"maeMean":0.045,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.955,"empiricalMass":0.955,"logScore":0.046043938501406846},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.0002249999999999995,"mean":0.015,"median":0,"bias":0.015,"maeMean":0.015,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.985,"empiricalMass":0.985,"logScore":0.015113637810048184}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.995,"1":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.96,"1":0.04},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.975,"1":0.025},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.965,"1":0.035},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.955,"1":0.045},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.985,"1":0.015}}},{"issuedAt":1725148800000,"validUntil":1725753600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":2,"actual":6,"trainingCount":5825,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2024","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":1.78355,"mean":10.51,"median":8,"bias":4.51,"maeMean":4.51,"maeMedian":2,"low":3,"high":25,"coverage":true,"width":22,"pitLower":0.22,"pitUpper":0.33,"empiricalMass":0.11,"logScore":2.2072749131897207},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.7852499999999998,"mean":6.27,"median":5,"bias":0.2699999999999996,"maeMean":0.2699999999999996,"maeMedian":1,"low":2,"high":13,"coverage":true,"width":11,"pitLower":0.505,"pitUpper":0.615,"empiricalMass":0.11,"logScore":2.2072749131897207},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":1.9439000000000002,"mean":10.68,"median":8,"bias":4.68,"maeMean":4.68,"maeMedian":2,"low":2,"high":28,"coverage":true,"width":26,"pitLower":0.31,"pitUpper":0.365,"empiricalMass":0.055,"logScore":2.900422093749666},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":2.812525,"mean":10.435,"median":10,"bias":4.4350000000000005,"maeMean":4.4350000000000005,"maeMedian":4,"low":6,"high":16,"coverage":true,"width":10,"pitLower":0.045,"pitUpper":0.085,"empiricalMass":0.04,"logScore":3.2188758248682006},"recentPoisson":{"crps":1.2036,"mean":8.07,"median":8,"bias":2.0700000000000003,"maeMean":2.0700000000000003,"maeMedian":2,"low":4,"high":13,"coverage":true,"width":9,"pitLower":0.175,"pitUpper":0.295,"empiricalMass":0.12,"logScore":2.120263536200091},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":1.9081000000000001,"mean":9.56,"median":7,"bias":3.5600000000000005,"maeMean":3.5600000000000005,"maeMedian":1,"low":1,"high":27,"coverage":true,"width":26,"pitLower":0.435,"pitUpper":0.475,"empiricalMass":0.04,"logScore":3.2188758248682006}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"1":0.005,"2":0.02,"3":0.065,"4":0.045,"5":0.085,"6":0.11,"7":0.12,"8":0.07,"9":0.05,"10":0.065,"11":0.06,"12":0.02,"13":0.045,"14":0.035,"15":0.02,"16":0.045,"17":0.02,"18":0.005,"19":0.01,"21":0.03,"22":0.005,"23":0.005,"24":0.01,"25":0.005,"26":0.005,"28":0.005,"29":0.01,"30":0.005,"33":0.005,"36":0.005,"39":0.005,"42":0.01},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.005,"1":0.03,"2":0.075,"3":0.13,"4":0.12,"5":0.145,"6":0.11,"7":0.09,"8":0.075,"9":0.06,"10":0.07,"11":0.02,"12":0.015,"13":0.02,"14":0.005,"15":0.005,"16":0.01,"20":0.005,"25":0.005,"35":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.005,"1":0.015,"2":0.03,"3":0.055,"4":0.085,"5":0.12,"6":0.055,"7":0.04,"8":0.105,"9":0.075,"10":0.05,"11":0.035,"12":0.025,"13":0.045,"14":0.04,"15":0.035,"16":0.02,"17":0.03,"18":0.015,"19":0.005,"20":0.005,"21":0.005,"22":0.01,"24":0.005,"25":0.015,"26":0.01,"27":0.01,"28":0.01,"30":0.005,"31":0.02,"32":0.005,"33":0.005,"42":0.005,"58":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"4":0.01,"5":0.035,"6":0.04,"7":0.075,"8":0.135,"9":0.12,"10":0.125,"11":0.115,"12":0.105,"13":0.09,"14":0.04,"15":0.05,"16":0.025,"17":0.015,"18":0.005,"19":0.01,"21":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"2":0.015,"3":0.02,"4":0.07,"5":0.07,"6":0.12,"7":0.125,"8":0.15,"9":0.135,"10":0.105,"11":0.065,"12":0.07,"13":0.035,"14":0.02},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.04,"1":0.07,"2":0.09,"3":0.11,"4":0.06,"5":0.065,"6":0.04,"7":0.07,"8":0.025,"9":0.06,"10":0.045,"11":0.035,"12":0.01,"13":0.02,"14":0.03,"15":0.01,"16":0.025,"17":0.005,"18":0.02,"19":0.02,"20":0.025,"21":0.015,"22":0.015,"23":0.015,"24":0.015,"25":0.01,"27":0.005,"30":0.01,"31":0.01,"32":0.01,"33":0.005,"37":0.005,"41":0.005,"43":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1725148800000,"validUntil":1725753600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":3,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5825,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2024","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.41879999999999995,"mean":1.2,"median":1,"bias":1.2,"maeMean":1.2,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.46,"empiricalMass":0.46,"logScore":0.7765287894989963},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.260475,"mean":0.785,"median":0,"bias":0.785,"maeMean":0.785,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.53,"empiricalMass":0.53,"logScore":0.6348782724359695},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.4513250000000001,"mean":1.235,"median":1,"bias":1.235,"maeMean":1.235,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.42,"empiricalMass":0.42,"logScore":0.8675005677047231},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.7864500000000001,"mean":1.37,"median":1,"bias":1.37,"maeMean":1.37,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.235,"empiricalMass":0.235,"logScore":1.448169764837978},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.6147,"mean":1.22,"median":1,"bias":1.22,"maeMean":1.22,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.305,"empiricalMass":0.305,"logScore":1.1874435023747254},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.44277500000000014,"mean":1.245,"median":1,"bias":1.245,"maeMean":1.245,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.455,"empiricalMass":0.455,"logScore":0.7874578600311866}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.46,"1":0.24,"2":0.14,"3":0.075,"4":0.03,"5":0.025,"6":0.01,"7":0.015,"9":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.53,"1":0.29,"2":0.11,"3":0.025,"4":0.03,"5":0.01,"6":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.42,"1":0.315,"2":0.105,"3":0.04,"4":0.06,"5":0.03,"6":0.02,"8":0.01},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.235,"1":0.34,"2":0.285,"3":0.11,"4":0.02,"5":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.305,"1":0.37,"2":0.17,"3":0.11,"4":0.045},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.455,"1":0.245,"2":0.1,"3":0.085,"4":0.07,"5":0.03,"7":0.01,"9":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1725148800000,"validUntil":1725753600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5825,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2024","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.02084999999999998,"mean":0.18,"median":0,"bias":0.18,"maeMean":0.18,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.86,"empiricalMass":0.86,"logScore":0.15082288973458366},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.007374999999999993,"mean":0.105,"median":0,"bias":0.105,"maeMean":0.105,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.915,"empiricalMass":0.915,"logScore":0.0888312137066157},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.01780000000000001,"mean":0.16,"median":0,"bias":0.16,"maeMean":0.16,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.87,"empiricalMass":0.87,"logScore":0.13926206733350766},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.02762500000000001,"mean":0.185,"median":0,"bias":0.185,"maeMean":0.185,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.835,"empiricalMass":0.835,"logScore":0.18032355413128162},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.029124999999999984,"mean":0.185,"median":0,"bias":0.185,"maeMean":0.185,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.83,"empiricalMass":0.83,"logScore":0.18632957819149348},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.03842499999999999,"mean":0.215,"median":0,"bias":0.215,"maeMean":0.215,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.805,"empiricalMass":0.805,"logScore":0.21691300156357363}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.86,"1":0.105,"2":0.03,"3":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.915,"1":0.075,"2":0.005,"4":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.87,"1":0.1,"2":0.03},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.835,"1":0.145,"2":0.02},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.83,"1":0.155,"2":0.015},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.805,"1":0.175,"2":0.02}}},{"issuedAt":1725148800000,"validUntil":1727740800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":2,"actual":18,"trainingCount":5825,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2024","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":23.385375000000003,"mean":55.195,"median":49,"bias":37.195,"maeMean":37.195,"maeMedian":31,"low":25,"high":113,"coverage":false,"width":88,"pitLower":0.005,"pitUpper":0.01,"empiricalMass":0.005,"logScore":5.298317366548036},"rollingETAS":{"crps":5.8589,"mean":27.9,"median":26,"bias":9.899999999999999,"maeMean":9.899999999999999,"maeMedian":8,"low":18,"high":42,"coverage":true,"width":24,"pitLower":0.045,"pitUpper":0.065,"empiricalMass":0.02,"logScore":3.912023005428146},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":22.865900000000003,"mean":53.42,"median":48.5,"bias":35.42,"maeMean":35.42,"maeMedian":30.5,"low":25,"high":96,"coverage":false,"width":71,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":23.0334,"mean":44.9,"median":44,"bias":26.9,"maeMean":26.9,"maeMedian":26,"low":35,"high":57,"coverage":false,"width":22,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentPoisson":{"crps":13.919775,"mean":35.285,"median":35,"bias":17.284999999999997,"maeMean":17.284999999999997,"maeMedian":17,"low":25,"high":46,"coverage":false,"width":21,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":7.625825000000001,"mean":32.675,"median":31,"bias":14.674999999999997,"maeMean":14.674999999999997,"maeMedian":13,"low":9,"high":65,"coverage":true,"width":56,"pitLower":0.185,"pitUpper":0.22,"empiricalMass":0.035,"logScore":3.3524072174927233}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"16":0.005,"18":0.005,"19":0.005,"20":0.01,"21":0.01,"22":0.005,"23":0.005,"25":0.005,"26":0.025,"27":0.005,"28":0.015,"29":0.015,"30":0.01,"31":0.035,"32":0.02,"33":0.02,"34":0.015,"36":0.005,"37":0.015,"38":0.035,"39":0.015,"40":0.045,"41":0.035,"42":0.02,"43":0.03,"45":0.025,"46":0.02,"47":0.005,"48":0.03,"49":0.04,"50":0.01,"51":0.02,"52":0.015,"53":0.01,"54":0.015,"55":0.015,"56":0.01,"57":0.015,"58":0.01,"59":0.015,"61":0.01,"62":0.01,"63":0.025,"64":0.005,"65":0.01,"66":0.015,"67":0.025,"68":0.01,"70":0.01,"71":0.015,"72":0.005,"73":0.005,"74":0.01,"75":0.015,"76":0.005,"77":0.005,"78":0.01,"79":0.015,"81":0.005,"82":0.01,"83":0.005,"85":0.005,"86":0.005,"89":0.005,"90":0.005,"95":0.005,"97":0.005,"98":0.01,"100":0.005,"103":0.005,"110":0.005,"113":0.01,"114":0.005,"116":0.005,"118":0.005,"127":0.005,"129":0.005,"145":0.005,"150":0.005,"156":0.005,"158":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"13":0.005,"14":0.005,"15":0.01,"16":0.02,"17":0.005,"18":0.02,"19":0.035,"20":0.04,"21":0.04,"22":0.06,"23":0.065,"24":0.07,"25":0.075,"26":0.075,"27":0.04,"28":0.065,"29":0.07,"30":0.035,"31":0.025,"32":0.02,"33":0.01,"34":0.01,"35":0.025,"36":0.025,"37":0.04,"38":0.015,"39":0.01,"40":0.015,"41":0.005,"42":0.015,"43":0.01,"44":0.005,"46":0.005,"47":0.005,"51":0.005,"56":0.01,"57":0.005,"59":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"19":0.01,"22":0.015,"24":0.005,"25":0.02,"26":0.01,"27":0.005,"28":0.03,"29":0.025,"30":0.02,"32":0.03,"33":0.025,"34":0.02,"35":0.01,"36":0.045,"37":0.01,"38":0.035,"39":0.015,"40":0.015,"41":0.01,"42":0.005,"43":0.045,"44":0.035,"45":0.02,"46":0.015,"47":0.02,"48":0.005,"49":0.015,"50":0.025,"51":0.015,"52":0.015,"53":0.015,"54":0.025,"55":0.03,"56":0.005,"57":0.01,"58":0.01,"59":0.015,"61":0.025,"62":0.03,"64":0.02,"65":0.005,"66":0.01,"68":0.01,"69":0.005,"70":0.01,"71":0.01,"72":0.01,"73":0.015,"75":0.01,"76":0.005,"78":0.015,"79":0.01,"81":0.015,"82":0.005,"83":0.005,"84":0.005,"86":0.01,"87":0.005,"90":0.005,"92":0.005,"93":0.005,"94":0.01,"96":0.01,"97":0.005,"98":0.005,"105":0.01,"108":0.005,"110":0.005,"117":0.005,"118":0.005,"138":0.005,"179":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"29":0.01,"31":0.005,"32":0.005,"33":0.01,"34":0.005,"35":0.015,"36":0.055,"37":0.04,"38":0.05,"39":0.055,"40":0.045,"41":0.055,"42":0.065,"43":0.045,"44":0.05,"45":0.04,"46":0.03,"47":0.045,"48":0.05,"49":0.07,"50":0.025,"51":0.04,"52":0.045,"53":0.035,"54":0.02,"55":0.015,"56":0.015,"57":0.015,"58":0.03,"59":0.01,"61":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"21":0.005,"22":0.005,"23":0.005,"24":0.015,"25":0.02,"26":0.025,"27":0.025,"28":0.02,"29":0.035,"30":0.035,"31":0.065,"32":0.08,"33":0.08,"34":0.06,"35":0.07,"36":0.065,"37":0.06,"38":0.045,"39":0.055,"40":0.025,"41":0.045,"42":0.025,"43":0.03,"44":0.025,"45":0.025,"46":0.015,"47":0.015,"48":0.02,"52":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"1":0.005,"5":0.005,"6":0.005,"7":0.005,"8":0.025,"9":0.005,"10":0.005,"11":0.01,"12":0.02,"13":0.015,"14":0.03,"15":0.015,"16":0.02,"17":0.02,"18":0.035,"19":0.02,"20":0.005,"21":0.01,"22":0.025,"23":0.03,"24":0.04,"25":0.035,"26":0.015,"27":0.035,"28":0.02,"29":0.015,"30":0.025,"31":0.02,"32":0.03,"33":0.04,"34":0.02,"35":0.015,"36":0.025,"37":0.035,"38":0.005,"39":0.01,"40":0.015,"41":0.015,"42":0.03,"43":0.035,"44":0.01,"45":0.005,"46":0.035,"47":0.01,"48":0.005,"49":0.015,"50":0.005,"51":0.02,"52":0.015,"53":0.01,"54":0.005,"58":0.005,"61":0.005,"63":0.01,"65":0.005,"66":0.005,"68":0.005,"69":0.005,"73":0.005,"78":0.005,"82":0.005,"85":0.01,"87":0.005,"103":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1725148800000,"validUntil":1727740800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":3,"actual":1,"trainingCount":5825,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2024","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":3.3322749999999997,"mean":6.835,"median":6,"bias":5.835,"maeMean":5.835,"maeMedian":5,"low":1,"high":17,"coverage":true,"width":16,"pitLower":0.025,"pitUpper":0.085,"empiricalMass":0.06,"logScore":2.8134107167600364},"rollingETAS":{"crps":1.2542250000000001,"mean":3.345,"median":3,"bias":2.345,"maeMean":2.345,"maeMedian":2,"low":1,"high":8,"coverage":true,"width":7,"pitLower":0.045,"pitUpper":0.195,"empiricalMass":0.15,"logScore":1.8971199848858813},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":3.1791750000000003,"mean":6.405,"median":5,"bias":5.405,"maeMean":5.405,"maeMedian":4,"low":1,"high":15,"coverage":true,"width":14,"pitLower":0.02,"pitUpper":0.09,"empiricalMass":0.07,"logScore":2.659260036932778},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":3.5516999999999994,"mean":5.89,"median":6,"bias":4.89,"maeMean":4.89,"maeMedian":5,"low":2,"high":10,"coverage":false,"width":8,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.025,"empiricalMass":0.025,"logScore":3.6888794541139363},"recentPoisson":{"crps":3.059025,"mean":5.445,"median":5,"bias":4.445,"maeMean":4.445,"maeMedian":4,"low":2,"high":10,"coverage":false,"width":8,"pitLower":0.005,"pitUpper":0.045,"empiricalMass":0.04,"logScore":3.2188758248682006},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":2.68905,"mean":5.53,"median":5,"bias":4.53,"maeMean":4.53,"maeMedian":4,"low":1,"high":12,"coverage":true,"width":11,"pitLower":0.035,"pitUpper":0.09,"empiricalMass":0.055,"logScore":2.900422093749666}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.025,"1":0.06,"2":0.06,"3":0.11,"4":0.08,"5":0.125,"6":0.13,"7":0.095,"8":0.05,"9":0.05,"10":0.04,"11":0.05,"12":0.005,"13":0.03,"14":0.005,"15":0.015,"16":0.015,"17":0.015,"20":0.005,"21":0.015,"22":0.005,"23":0.005,"25":0.005,"26":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.045,"1":0.15,"2":0.23,"3":0.17,"4":0.125,"5":0.135,"6":0.07,"7":0.02,"8":0.02,"9":0.02,"10":0.015},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.02,"1":0.07,"2":0.045,"3":0.13,"4":0.135,"5":0.12,"6":0.08,"7":0.035,"8":0.095,"9":0.05,"10":0.055,"11":0.05,"12":0.035,"13":0.01,"14":0.01,"15":0.025,"16":0.015,"17":0.005,"18":0.01,"22":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"1":0.025,"2":0.03,"3":0.085,"4":0.18,"5":0.14,"6":0.18,"7":0.125,"8":0.08,"9":0.09,"10":0.04,"11":0.005,"12":0.005,"13":0.005,"14":0.005,"15":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.005,"1":0.04,"2":0.05,"3":0.14,"4":0.14,"5":0.17,"6":0.16,"7":0.1,"8":0.085,"9":0.03,"10":0.045,"11":0.02,"12":0.01,"15":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.035,"1":0.055,"2":0.09,"3":0.16,"4":0.11,"5":0.095,"6":0.12,"7":0.085,"8":0.06,"9":0.07,"10":0.025,"11":0.035,"12":0.01,"13":0.015,"14":0.015,"15":0.005,"16":0.015}}},{"issuedAt":1725148800000,"validUntil":1727740800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5825,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2024","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.349425,"mean":0.885,"median":1,"bias":0.885,"maeMean":0.885,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.445,"empiricalMass":0.445,"logScore":0.8096809968158968},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.10212500000000002,"mean":0.405,"median":0,"bias":0.405,"maeMean":0.405,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.69,"empiricalMass":0.69,"logScore":0.37106368139083207},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.28795000000000004,"mean":0.81,"median":0,"bias":0.81,"maeMean":0.81,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.515,"empiricalMass":0.515,"logScore":0.6635883783184009},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.309375,"mean":0.735,"median":1,"bias":0.735,"maeMean":0.735,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.47,"empiricalMass":0.47,"logScore":0.7550225842780328},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.378725,"mean":0.855,"median":1,"bias":0.855,"maeMean":0.855,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.425,"empiricalMass":0.425,"logScore":0.8556661100577202},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.25744999999999996,"mean":0.76,"median":0,"bias":0.76,"maeMean":0.76,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.525,"empiricalMass":0.525,"logScore":0.6443570163905132}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.445,"1":0.37,"2":0.115,"3":0.03,"4":0.015,"5":0.02,"7":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.69,"1":0.235,"2":0.055,"3":0.02},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.515,"1":0.265,"2":0.16,"3":0.035,"4":0.02,"8":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.47,"1":0.365,"2":0.13,"3":0.03,"4":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.425,"1":0.36,"2":0.175,"3":0.025,"4":0.01,"6":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.525,"1":0.315,"2":0.085,"3":0.055,"4":0.01,"5":0.005,"9":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1727740800000,"validUntil":1727827200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":2,"actual":1,"trainingCount":5843,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2024","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.30137500000000006,"mean":0.975,"median":1,"bias":-0.025000000000000022,"maeMean":0.025000000000000022,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.475,"pitUpper":0.76,"empiricalMass":0.285,"logScore":1.2552660987134867},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.30757499999999993,"mean":0.795,"median":0,"bias":-0.20499999999999996,"maeMean":0.20499999999999996,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.51,"pitUpper":0.8,"empiricalMass":0.29,"logScore":1.2378743560016174},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.3828250000000001,"mean":1.125,"median":0,"bias":0.125,"maeMean":0.125,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.535,"pitUpper":0.74,"empiricalMass":0.205,"logScore":1.584745299843729},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.2984,"mean":1.49,"median":1,"bias":0.49,"maeMean":0.49,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.245,"pitUpper":0.57,"empiricalMass":0.325,"logScore":1.1239300966523995},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.2168500000000001,"mean":1.3,"median":1,"bias":0.30000000000000004,"maeMean":0.30000000000000004,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.25,"pitUpper":0.63,"empiricalMass":0.38,"logScore":0.9675840262617056},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.33904999999999996,"mean":1.27,"median":1,"bias":0.27,"maeMean":0.27,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.445,"pitUpper":0.69,"empiricalMass":0.245,"logScore":1.40649706843741}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.475,"1":0.285,"2":0.115,"3":0.08,"4":0.03,"6":0.01,"8":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.51,"1":0.29,"2":0.115,"3":0.07,"4":0.01,"5":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.535,"1":0.205,"2":0.125,"3":0.06,"4":0.025,"5":0.02,"6":0.005,"7":0.005,"8":0.005,"10":0.005,"12":0.005,"15":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.245,"1":0.325,"2":0.215,"3":0.13,"4":0.08,"5":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.25,"1":0.38,"2":0.25,"3":0.065,"4":0.05,"5":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.445,"1":0.245,"2":0.14,"3":0.065,"4":0.05,"5":0.02,"6":0.01,"7":0.015,"8":0.005,"9":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1727740800000,"validUntil":1727827200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":3,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5843,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2024","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.012325000000000003,"mean":0.125,"median":0,"bias":0.125,"maeMean":0.125,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.89,"empiricalMass":0.89,"logScore":0.11653381625595151},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.004924999999999999,"mean":0.075,"median":0,"bias":0.075,"maeMean":0.075,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.93,"empiricalMass":0.93,"logScore":0.07257069283483537},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.010425000000000004,"mean":0.125,"median":0,"bias":0.125,"maeMean":0.125,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.9,"empiricalMass":0.9,"logScore":0.10536051565782628},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.04022499999999998,"mean":0.215,"median":0,"bias":0.215,"maeMean":0.215,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.8,"empiricalMass":0.8,"logScore":0.2231435513142097},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.03282499999999999,"mean":0.205,"median":0,"bias":0.205,"maeMean":0.205,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.82,"empiricalMass":0.82,"logScore":0.19845093872383832},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.011749999999999983,"mean":0.15,"median":0,"bias":0.15,"maeMean":0.15,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.895,"empiricalMass":0.895,"logScore":0.11093156070728166}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.89,"1":0.095,"2":0.015},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.93,"1":0.065,"2":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.9,"1":0.08,"2":0.015,"3":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.8,"1":0.185,"2":0.015},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.82,"1":0.16,"2":0.015,"3":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.895,"1":0.085,"2":0.005,"3":0.005,"4":0.01}}},{"issuedAt":1727740800000,"validUntil":1727827200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5843,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2024","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0,"mean":0,"median":0,"bias":0,"maeMean":0,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":1,"empiricalMass":1,"logScore":0},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.00002499999999999985,"mean":0.005,"median":0,"bias":0.005,"maeMean":0.005,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.995,"empiricalMass":0.995,"logScore":0.005012541823544286},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.0000999999999999994,"mean":0.01,"median":0,"bias":0.01,"maeMean":0.01,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.99,"empiricalMass":0.99,"logScore":0.01005033585350145},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.0025000000000000022,"mean":0.05,"median":0,"bias":0.05,"maeMean":0.05,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.95,"empiricalMass":0.95,"logScore":0.05129329438755058},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.00040000000000000105,"mean":0.02,"median":0,"bias":0.02,"maeMean":0.02,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.98,"empiricalMass":0.98,"logScore":0.020202707317519466},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.0002500000000000002,"mean":0.02,"median":0,"bias":0.02,"maeMean":0.02,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.985,"empiricalMass":0.985,"logScore":0.015113637810048184}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":1},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.995,"1":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.99,"1":0.01},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.95,"1":0.05},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.98,"1":0.02},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.985,"1":0.01,"2":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1727740800000,"validUntil":1728345600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":2,"actual":4,"trainingCount":5843,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2024","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":3.58005,"mean":11.38,"median":10,"bias":7.380000000000001,"maeMean":7.380000000000001,"maeMedian":6,"low":2,"high":27,"coverage":true,"width":25,"pitLower":0.1,"pitUpper":0.145,"empiricalMass":0.045,"logScore":3.101092789211817},"rollingETAS":{"crps":1.0211249999999998,"mean":5.805,"median":6,"bias":1.8049999999999997,"maeMean":1.8049999999999997,"maeMedian":2,"low":1,"high":11,"coverage":true,"width":10,"pitLower":0.23,"pitUpper":0.35,"empiricalMass":0.12,"logScore":2.120263536200091},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":2.559075,"mean":10.665,"median":8,"bias":6.664999999999999,"maeMean":6.664999999999999,"maeMedian":4,"low":1,"high":32,"coverage":true,"width":31,"pitLower":0.17,"pitUpper":0.245,"empiricalMass":0.075,"logScore":2.5902671654458267},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":4.547975,"mean":10.255,"median":10,"bias":6.255000000000001,"maeMean":6.255000000000001,"maeMedian":6,"low":6,"high":16,"coverage":false,"width":10,"pitLower":0.005,"pitUpper":0.015,"empiricalMass":0.01,"logScore":4.605170185988091},"recentPoisson":{"crps":3.0452500000000002,"mean":8.58,"median":9,"bias":4.58,"maeMean":4.58,"maeMedian":5,"low":3,"high":14,"coverage":true,"width":11,"pitLower":0.055,"pitUpper":0.09,"empiricalMass":0.035,"logScore":3.3524072174927233},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":2.420375,"mean":9.225,"median":7.5,"bias":5.225,"maeMean":5.225,"maeMedian":3.5,"low":1,"high":21,"coverage":true,"width":20,"pitLower":0.255,"pitUpper":0.325,"empiricalMass":0.07,"logScore":2.659260036932778}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.005,"1":0.015,"2":0.035,"3":0.045,"4":0.045,"5":0.07,"6":0.085,"7":0.065,"8":0.095,"9":0.03,"10":0.08,"11":0.075,"12":0.045,"13":0.025,"14":0.04,"15":0.025,"16":0.015,"17":0.035,"18":0.01,"19":0.025,"20":0.02,"21":0.015,"22":0.01,"23":0.01,"24":0.01,"25":0.005,"26":0.01,"27":0.005,"30":0.015,"31":0.01,"34":0.01,"43":0.005,"48":0.01},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.015,"1":0.035,"2":0.08,"3":0.1,"4":0.12,"5":0.14,"6":0.125,"7":0.11,"8":0.115,"9":0.06,"10":0.04,"11":0.02,"12":0.005,"13":0.025,"14":0.005,"15":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.01,"1":0.04,"2":0.03,"3":0.09,"4":0.075,"5":0.08,"6":0.075,"7":0.08,"8":0.06,"9":0.085,"10":0.055,"11":0.04,"12":0.05,"13":0.025,"14":0.025,"15":0.005,"16":0.01,"17":0.025,"18":0.015,"20":0.005,"21":0.01,"22":0.005,"23":0.015,"24":0.01,"25":0.005,"26":0.005,"28":0.01,"31":0.005,"32":0.01,"33":0.005,"34":0.01,"35":0.005,"41":0.005,"54":0.005,"56":0.005,"60":0.005,"79":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"2":0.005,"4":0.01,"5":0.025,"6":0.055,"7":0.115,"8":0.095,"9":0.13,"10":0.11,"11":0.125,"12":0.095,"13":0.08,"14":0.045,"15":0.055,"16":0.035,"17":0.015,"18":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"1":0.005,"2":0.02,"3":0.03,"4":0.035,"5":0.07,"6":0.1,"7":0.1,"8":0.11,"9":0.13,"10":0.135,"11":0.095,"12":0.09,"13":0.02,"14":0.035,"15":0.02,"16":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.03,"1":0.065,"2":0.055,"3":0.105,"4":0.07,"5":0.065,"6":0.07,"7":0.04,"8":0.055,"9":0.035,"10":0.04,"11":0.035,"12":0.025,"13":0.04,"14":0.055,"15":0.015,"16":0.03,"17":0.03,"18":0.03,"19":0.02,"20":0.01,"21":0.03,"22":0.005,"23":0.005,"24":0.015,"25":0.01,"27":0.005,"34":0.005,"39":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1727740800000,"validUntil":1728345600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":3,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5843,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2024","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.61375,"mean":1.48,"median":1,"bias":1.48,"maeMean":1.48,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.345,"empiricalMass":0.345,"logScore":1.0642108619507773},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.277925,"mean":0.735,"median":0,"bias":0.735,"maeMean":0.735,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.51,"empiricalMass":0.51,"logScore":0.6733445532637656},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.41775000000000007,"mean":1.3,"median":1,"bias":1.3,"maeMean":1.3,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.46,"empiricalMass":0.46,"logScore":0.7765287894989963},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.8309,"mean":1.44,"median":1,"bias":1.44,"maeMean":1.44,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.225,"empiricalMass":0.225,"logScore":1.491654876777717},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.6948749999999999,"mean":1.315,"median":1,"bias":1.315,"maeMean":1.315,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.27,"empiricalMass":0.27,"logScore":1.3093333199837622},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.49985,"mean":1.23,"median":1,"bias":1.23,"maeMean":1.23,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.4,"empiricalMass":0.4,"logScore":0.916290731874155}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.345,"1":0.3,"2":0.17,"3":0.06,"4":0.05,"5":0.025,"6":0.025,"7":0.015,"8":0.01},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.51,"1":0.3,"2":0.15,"3":0.03,"4":0.005,"5":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.46,"1":0.255,"2":0.12,"3":0.07,"4":0.03,"5":0.02,"6":0.01,"7":0.01,"8":0.005,"9":0.01,"10":0.005,"13":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.225,"1":0.33,"2":0.27,"3":0.135,"4":0.035,"5":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.27,"1":0.355,"2":0.245,"3":0.065,"4":0.05,"5":0.015},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.4,"1":0.29,"2":0.115,"3":0.13,"4":0.03,"5":0.02,"6":0.01,"8":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1727740800000,"validUntil":1728345600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5843,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2024","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.021300000000000013,"mean":0.19,"median":0,"bias":0.19,"maeMean":0.19,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.86,"empiricalMass":0.86,"logScore":0.15082288973458366},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.0016000000000000042,"mean":0.04,"median":0,"bias":0.04,"maeMean":0.04,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.96,"empiricalMass":0.96,"logScore":0.040821994520255166},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.012474999999999986,"mean":0.155,"median":0,"bias":0.155,"maeMean":0.155,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.895,"empiricalMass":0.895,"logScore":0.11093156070728166},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.03620000000000001,"mean":0.2,"median":0,"bias":0.2,"maeMean":0.2,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.81,"empiricalMass":0.81,"logScore":0.21072103131565253},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.032800000000000024,"mean":0.2,"median":0,"bias":0.2,"maeMean":0.2,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.82,"empiricalMass":0.82,"logScore":0.19845093872383832},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.06612499999999999,"mean":0.315,"median":0,"bias":0.315,"maeMean":0.315,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.75,"empiricalMass":0.75,"logScore":0.2876820724517809}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.86,"1":0.1,"2":0.03,"3":0.01},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.96,"1":0.04},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.895,"1":0.07,"2":0.02,"3":0.015},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.81,"1":0.18,"2":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.82,"1":0.16,"2":0.02},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.75,"1":0.19,"2":0.055,"3":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1727740800000,"validUntil":1730332800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":2,"actual":23,"trainingCount":5843,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2024","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":16.758675,"mean":52.925,"median":47,"bias":29.924999999999997,"maeMean":29.924999999999997,"maeMedian":24,"low":21,"high":104,"coverage":true,"width":83,"pitLower":0.055,"pitUpper":0.06,"empiricalMass":0.005,"logScore":5.298317366548036},"rollingETAS":{"crps":2.2036,"mean":27.08,"median":26,"bias":4.079999999999998,"maeMean":4.079999999999998,"maeMedian":3,"low":16,"high":41,"coverage":true,"width":25,"pitLower":0.285,"pitUpper":0.34,"empiricalMass":0.055,"logScore":2.900422093749666},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":17.897275,"mean":53.475,"median":50.5,"bias":30.475,"maeMean":30.475,"maeMedian":27.5,"low":22,"high":97,"coverage":true,"width":75,"pitLower":0.05,"pitUpper":0.055,"empiricalMass":0.005,"logScore":5.298317366548036},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":17.892425,"mean":44.645,"median":44,"bias":21.645000000000003,"maeMean":21.645000000000003,"maeMedian":21,"low":34,"high":57,"coverage":false,"width":23,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentPoisson":{"crps":9.19265,"mean":35.83,"median":36,"bias":12.829999999999998,"maeMean":12.829999999999998,"maeMedian":13,"low":25,"high":46,"coverage":false,"width":21,"pitLower":0.01,"pitUpper":0.015,"empiricalMass":0.005,"logScore":5.298317366548036},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":5.887899999999998,"mean":34.94,"median":32,"bias":11.939999999999998,"maeMean":11.939999999999998,"maeMedian":9,"low":9,"high":72,"coverage":true,"width":63,"pitLower":0.29,"pitUpper":0.325,"empiricalMass":0.035,"logScore":3.3524072174927233}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"14":0.005,"15":0.01,"16":0.005,"17":0.005,"18":0.005,"19":0.005,"21":0.015,"22":0.005,"23":0.005,"24":0.005,"25":0.02,"26":0.015,"27":0.015,"28":0.025,"29":0.015,"30":0.02,"31":0.03,"32":0.015,"33":0.01,"34":0.01,"35":0.02,"36":0.02,"37":0.04,"38":0.01,"39":0.02,"40":0.005,"41":0.03,"42":0.03,"43":0.015,"44":0.015,"45":0.015,"46":0.01,"47":0.035,"48":0.03,"49":0.01,"50":0.01,"51":0.02,"52":0.02,"53":0.01,"55":0.02,"56":0.01,"57":0.005,"58":0.015,"59":0.04,"60":0.005,"61":0.02,"62":0.015,"63":0.005,"64":0.005,"65":0.02,"68":0.01,"69":0.01,"70":0.005,"71":0.015,"72":0.005,"73":0.01,"74":0.005,"76":0.01,"78":0.015,"79":0.015,"80":0.01,"81":0.01,"82":0.01,"83":0.005,"87":0.005,"88":0.01,"90":0.01,"93":0.005,"95":0.005,"100":0.005,"103":0.005,"104":0.005,"107":0.01,"115":0.005,"117":0.005,"120":0.01,"121":0.005,"122":0.005,"141":0.005,"185":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"12":0.005,"14":0.015,"15":0.015,"16":0.015,"17":0.025,"18":0.045,"19":0.02,"20":0.03,"21":0.05,"22":0.065,"23":0.055,"24":0.055,"25":0.035,"26":0.085,"27":0.055,"28":0.085,"29":0.045,"30":0.06,"31":0.045,"32":0.01,"33":0.035,"34":0.01,"35":0.005,"36":0.02,"37":0.015,"38":0.01,"40":0.01,"41":0.035,"42":0.005,"43":0.005,"47":0.015,"49":0.005,"50":0.01,"52":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"13":0.005,"18":0.015,"19":0.005,"21":0.015,"22":0.01,"23":0.005,"24":0.015,"26":0.03,"27":0.02,"28":0.01,"29":0.005,"30":0.02,"31":0.01,"32":0.03,"33":0.015,"34":0.01,"35":0.01,"36":0.02,"37":0.02,"38":0.03,"39":0.015,"40":0.03,"41":0.005,"42":0.02,"43":0.015,"44":0.01,"45":0.035,"46":0.01,"47":0.02,"48":0.01,"49":0.025,"50":0.005,"51":0.025,"52":0.03,"53":0.01,"54":0.015,"55":0.02,"56":0.03,"57":0.01,"58":0.015,"59":0.025,"60":0.02,"61":0.005,"62":0.005,"63":0.01,"64":0.01,"65":0.01,"66":0.015,"67":0.025,"68":0.005,"69":0.01,"70":0.015,"71":0.015,"73":0.005,"74":0.005,"75":0.015,"77":0.01,"78":0.015,"81":0.005,"83":0.01,"84":0.005,"85":0.005,"86":0.01,"87":0.01,"91":0.01,"93":0.005,"94":0.01,"97":0.005,"99":0.005,"103":0.005,"107":0.005,"108":0.005,"114":0.005,"120":0.005,"123":0.005,"128":0.005,"136":0.005,"155":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"28":0.005,"29":0.005,"30":0.005,"31":0.015,"32":0.005,"34":0.015,"35":0.005,"36":0.03,"37":0.035,"38":0.065,"39":0.045,"40":0.055,"41":0.04,"42":0.07,"43":0.055,"44":0.075,"45":0.045,"46":0.075,"47":0.055,"48":0.045,"49":0.035,"50":0.015,"51":0.05,"52":0.035,"53":0.02,"54":0.01,"55":0.02,"56":0.01,"57":0.03,"58":0.01,"59":0.005,"60":0.005,"65":0.005,"66":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"19":0.005,"20":0.005,"23":0.005,"24":0.025,"25":0.015,"26":0.02,"27":0.025,"28":0.035,"29":0.025,"30":0.075,"31":0.04,"32":0.05,"33":0.05,"34":0.075,"35":0.035,"36":0.065,"37":0.045,"38":0.035,"39":0.065,"40":0.045,"41":0.075,"42":0.025,"43":0.025,"44":0.025,"45":0.035,"46":0.03,"47":0.02,"48":0.01,"49":0.005,"54":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"3":0.005,"4":0.005,"5":0.005,"7":0.005,"8":0.02,"9":0.01,"10":0.01,"11":0.005,"12":0.02,"13":0.015,"14":0.01,"15":0.015,"16":0.03,"17":0.02,"18":0.025,"19":0.03,"20":0.015,"21":0.035,"22":0.01,"23":0.035,"24":0.005,"25":0.045,"26":0.035,"27":0.025,"28":0.02,"29":0.015,"30":0.01,"31":0.005,"32":0.02,"33":0.025,"34":0.01,"35":0.025,"36":0.03,"37":0.025,"38":0.02,"39":0.015,"40":0.015,"41":0.02,"42":0.01,"43":0.015,"44":0.02,"45":0.035,"46":0.01,"47":0.015,"48":0.01,"49":0.01,"50":0.005,"51":0.005,"52":0.005,"53":0.01,"55":0.015,"56":0.02,"57":0.01,"58":0.005,"59":0.02,"60":0.005,"61":0.005,"65":0.01,"66":0.005,"67":0.005,"70":0.005,"72":0.005,"75":0.005,"76":0.005,"77":0.005,"81":0.005,"86":0.005,"90":0.005,"94":0.005,"96":0.005,"106":0.005,"108":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1727740800000,"validUntil":1730332800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":3,"actual":2,"trainingCount":5843,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2024","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":2.1467000000000005,"mean":6.49,"median":5,"bias":4.49,"maeMean":4.49,"maeMedian":3,"low":1,"high":16,"coverage":true,"width":15,"pitLower":0.09,"pitUpper":0.205,"empiricalMass":0.115,"logScore":2.162823150618887},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.7013750000000001,"mean":3.315,"median":3,"bias":1.315,"maeMean":1.315,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":7,"coverage":true,"width":7,"pitLower":0.205,"pitUpper":0.395,"empiricalMass":0.19,"logScore":1.6607312068216509},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":2.5460000000000003,"mean":6.75,"median":6,"bias":4.75,"maeMean":4.75,"maeMedian":4,"low":1,"high":14,"coverage":true,"width":13,"pitLower":0.08,"pitUpper":0.125,"empiricalMass":0.045,"logScore":3.101092789211817},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":2.7063750000000004,"mean":6.065,"median":6,"bias":4.065,"maeMean":4.065,"maeMedian":4,"low":2,"high":10,"coverage":true,"width":8,"pitLower":0.02,"pitUpper":0.065,"empiricalMass":0.045,"logScore":3.101092789211817},"recentPoisson":{"crps":1.9264,"mean":5.09,"median":5,"bias":3.09,"maeMean":3.09,"maeMedian":3,"low":2,"high":9,"coverage":true,"width":7,"pitLower":0.045,"pitUpper":0.105,"empiricalMass":0.06,"logScore":2.8134107167600364},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":1.5229500000000002,"mean":4.98,"median":5,"bias":2.9800000000000004,"maeMean":2.9800000000000004,"maeMedian":3,"low":1,"high":11,"coverage":true,"width":10,"pitLower":0.105,"pitUpper":0.23,"empiricalMass":0.125,"logScore":2.0794415416798357}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.03,"1":0.06,"2":0.115,"3":0.11,"4":0.125,"5":0.065,"6":0.105,"7":0.075,"8":0.055,"9":0.03,"10":0.035,"11":0.04,"12":0.02,"13":0.03,"14":0.02,"15":0.02,"16":0.025,"17":0.015,"18":0.005,"19":0.005,"21":0.005,"22":0.005,"25":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.085,"1":0.12,"2":0.19,"3":0.17,"4":0.185,"5":0.1,"6":0.05,"7":0.06,"8":0.025,"9":0.01,"11":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.02,"1":0.06,"2":0.045,"3":0.115,"4":0.135,"5":0.09,"6":0.08,"7":0.1,"8":0.07,"9":0.075,"10":0.06,"11":0.03,"12":0.02,"13":0.03,"14":0.02,"15":0.015,"17":0.005,"19":0.005,"21":0.005,"22":0.01,"27":0.005,"29":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.005,"1":0.015,"2":0.045,"3":0.08,"4":0.135,"5":0.17,"6":0.15,"7":0.135,"8":0.075,"9":0.085,"10":0.06,"11":0.025,"12":0.015,"13":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.005,"1":0.04,"2":0.06,"3":0.155,"4":0.18,"5":0.16,"6":0.135,"7":0.11,"8":0.07,"9":0.065,"10":0.005,"11":0.01,"12":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.025,"1":0.08,"2":0.125,"3":0.145,"4":0.11,"5":0.145,"6":0.11,"7":0.105,"8":0.025,"9":0.04,"10":0.02,"11":0.025,"12":0.01,"13":0.01,"14":0.01,"15":0.01,"16":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1727740800000,"validUntil":1730332800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5843,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2024","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.267625,"mean":0.795,"median":0,"bias":0.795,"maeMean":0.795,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.52,"empiricalMass":0.52,"logScore":0.6539264674066639},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.08547499999999997,"mean":0.355,"median":0,"bias":0.355,"maeMean":0.355,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.715,"empiricalMass":0.715,"logScore":0.33547273628812946},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.2734749999999999,"mean":0.815,"median":0,"bias":0.815,"maeMean":0.815,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.525,"empiricalMass":0.525,"logScore":0.6443570163905132},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.340475,"mean":0.765,"median":1,"bias":0.765,"maeMean":0.765,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.435,"empiricalMass":0.435,"logScore":0.8324092478934529},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.38885,"mean":0.85,"median":1,"bias":0.85,"maeMean":0.85,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.415,"empiricalMass":0.415,"logScore":0.8794767587514388},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.2907749999999999,"mean":0.815,"median":0.5,"bias":0.815,"maeMean":0.815,"maeMedian":0.5,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.5,"empiricalMass":0.5,"logScore":0.6931471805599453}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.52,"1":0.305,"2":0.11,"3":0.02,"4":0.03,"5":0.005,"6":0.005,"7":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.715,"1":0.22,"2":0.06,"3":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.525,"1":0.28,"2":0.105,"3":0.05,"4":0.03,"5":0.005,"6":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.435,"1":0.425,"2":0.105,"3":0.015,"4":0.015,"5":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.415,"1":0.375,"2":0.16,"3":0.045,"4":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.5,"1":0.315,"2":0.115,"3":0.035,"4":0.015,"5":0.015,"6":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1730332800000,"validUntil":1730419200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":2,"actual":1,"trainingCount":5866,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2024","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.347425,"mean":1.405,"median":1,"bias":0.405,"maeMean":0.405,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.445,"pitUpper":0.69,"empiricalMass":0.245,"logScore":1.40649706843741},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.2904,"mean":0.98,"median":1,"bias":-0.020000000000000018,"maeMean":0.020000000000000018,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.455,"pitUpper":0.735,"empiricalMass":0.28,"logScore":1.2729656758128873},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.31125000000000014,"mean":1.21,"median":1,"bias":0.20999999999999996,"maeMean":0.20999999999999996,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.45,"pitUpper":0.725,"empiricalMass":0.275,"logScore":1.2909841813155656},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.26215,"mean":1.46,"median":1,"bias":0.45999999999999996,"maeMean":0.45999999999999996,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.235,"pitUpper":0.58,"empiricalMass":0.345,"logScore":1.0642108619507773},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.25582499999999997,"mean":1.315,"median":1,"bias":0.31499999999999995,"maeMean":0.31499999999999995,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.285,"pitUpper":0.61,"empiricalMass":0.325,"logScore":1.1239300966523995},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.3589,"mean":0.99,"median":0,"bias":-0.010000000000000009,"maeMean":0.010000000000000009,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.53,"pitUpper":0.78,"empiricalMass":0.25,"logScore":1.3862943611198906}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.445,"1":0.245,"2":0.12,"3":0.095,"4":0.03,"5":0.03,"7":0.01,"8":0.01,"10":0.005,"12":0.005,"21":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.455,"1":0.28,"2":0.155,"3":0.08,"4":0.025,"10":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.45,"1":0.275,"2":0.13,"3":0.065,"4":0.02,"5":0.025,"6":0.015,"7":0.005,"8":0.005,"10":0.005,"12":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.235,"1":0.345,"2":0.265,"3":0.08,"4":0.05,"5":0.01,"6":0.01,"7":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.285,"1":0.325,"2":0.25,"3":0.09,"4":0.03,"5":0.02},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.53,"1":0.25,"2":0.075,"3":0.07,"4":0.025,"5":0.03,"6":0.015,"8":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1730332800000,"validUntil":1730419200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":3,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5866,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2024","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.01765,"mean":0.17,"median":0,"bias":0.17,"maeMean":0.17,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.87,"empiricalMass":0.87,"logScore":0.13926206733350766},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.014949999999999991,"mean":0.16,"median":0,"bias":0.16,"maeMean":0.16,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.88,"empiricalMass":0.88,"logScore":0.12783337150988489},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.012300000000000005,"mean":0.15,"median":0,"bias":0.15,"maeMean":0.15,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.895,"empiricalMass":0.895,"logScore":0.11093156070728166},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.022724999999999995,"mean":0.165,"median":0,"bias":0.165,"maeMean":0.165,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.85,"empiricalMass":0.85,"logScore":0.16251892949777494},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.026499999999999996,"mean":0.19,"median":0,"bias":0.19,"maeMean":0.19,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.84,"empiricalMass":0.84,"logScore":0.1743533871447778},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.02654999999999999,"mean":0.21,"median":0,"bias":0.21,"maeMean":0.21,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.84,"empiricalMass":0.84,"logScore":0.1743533871447778}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.87,"1":0.105,"2":0.015,"3":0.005,"4":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.88,"1":0.1,"2":0.01,"3":0.005,"5":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.895,"1":0.07,"2":0.03,"4":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.85,"1":0.135,"2":0.015},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.84,"1":0.13,"2":0.03},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.84,"1":0.135,"2":0.01,"3":0.005,"4":0.01}}},{"issuedAt":1730332800000,"validUntil":1730419200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5866,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2024","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.000899999999999998,"mean":0.03,"median":0,"bias":0.03,"maeMean":0.03,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.97,"empiricalMass":0.97,"logScore":0.030459207484708574},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.0001250000000000001,"mean":0.015,"median":0,"bias":0.015,"maeMean":0.015,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.99,"empiricalMass":0.99,"logScore":0.01005033585350145},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.00040000000000000105,"mean":0.02,"median":0,"bias":0.02,"maeMean":0.02,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.98,"empiricalMass":0.98,"logScore":0.020202707317519466},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.0012500000000000011,"mean":0.04,"median":0,"bias":0.04,"maeMean":0.04,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.965,"empiricalMass":0.965,"logScore":0.03562717764315116},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.000899999999999998,"mean":0.03,"median":0,"bias":0.03,"maeMean":0.03,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.97,"empiricalMass":0.97,"logScore":0.030459207484708574},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.0006250000000000006,"mean":0.025,"median":0,"bias":0.025,"maeMean":0.025,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.975,"empiricalMass":0.975,"logScore":0.025317807984289897}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.97,"1":0.03},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.99,"1":0.005,"2":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.98,"1":0.02},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.965,"1":0.03,"2":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.97,"1":0.03},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.975,"1":0.025}}},{"issuedAt":1730332800000,"validUntil":1730937600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":2,"actual":5,"trainingCount":5866,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2024","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":2.4299750000000007,"mean":10.735,"median":8,"bias":5.734999999999999,"maeMean":5.734999999999999,"maeMedian":3,"low":2,"high":27,"coverage":true,"width":25,"pitLower":0.175,"pitUpper":0.24,"empiricalMass":0.065,"logScore":2.7333680090865},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.923325,"mean":6.485,"median":6,"bias":1.4850000000000003,"maeMean":1.4850000000000003,"maeMedian":1,"low":2,"high":12,"coverage":true,"width":10,"pitLower":0.3,"pitUpper":0.42,"empiricalMass":0.12,"logScore":2.120263536200091},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":2.2241500000000007,"mean":10.96,"median":8,"bias":5.960000000000001,"maeMean":5.960000000000001,"maeMedian":3,"low":2,"high":31,"coverage":true,"width":29,"pitLower":0.205,"pitUpper":0.285,"empiricalMass":0.08,"logScore":2.5257286443082556},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":3.3172999999999995,"mean":10.18,"median":10,"bias":5.18,"maeMean":5.18,"maeMedian":5,"low":5,"high":16,"coverage":true,"width":11,"pitLower":0.03,"pitUpper":0.075,"empiricalMass":0.045,"logScore":3.101092789211817},"recentPoisson":{"crps":2.104975,"mean":8.505,"median":8,"bias":3.505000000000001,"maeMean":3.505000000000001,"maeMedian":3,"low":4,"high":13,"coverage":true,"width":9,"pitLower":0.055,"pitUpper":0.16,"empiricalMass":0.105,"logScore":2.2537949288246137},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":1.253275,"mean":7.915,"median":6.5,"bias":2.915,"maeMean":2.915,"maeMedian":1.5,"low":1,"high":22,"coverage":true,"width":21,"pitLower":0.29,"pitUpper":0.41,"empiricalMass":0.12,"logScore":2.120263536200091}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.01,"1":0.025,"2":0.045,"3":0.035,"4":0.06,"5":0.065,"6":0.08,"7":0.115,"8":0.075,"9":0.07,"10":0.07,"11":0.025,"12":0.035,"13":0.025,"14":0.025,"15":0.045,"16":0.045,"18":0.025,"19":0.015,"20":0.02,"21":0.005,"22":0.005,"23":0.005,"24":0.005,"25":0.01,"26":0.005,"27":0.01,"28":0.005,"30":0.005,"32":0.005,"34":0.01,"36":0.005,"45":0.005,"50":0.005,"58":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.005,"1":0.03,"2":0.065,"3":0.095,"4":0.105,"5":0.12,"6":0.095,"7":0.13,"8":0.145,"9":0.06,"10":0.045,"11":0.04,"12":0.015,"13":0.015,"14":0.02,"16":0.005,"18":0.005,"25":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.005,"1":0.015,"2":0.06,"3":0.06,"4":0.065,"5":0.08,"6":0.08,"7":0.085,"8":0.095,"9":0.055,"10":0.06,"11":0.065,"12":0.04,"13":0.025,"14":0.02,"15":0.015,"16":0.005,"18":0.01,"19":0.015,"20":0.01,"21":0.025,"23":0.01,"24":0.01,"26":0.005,"27":0.01,"28":0.005,"29":0.01,"31":0.01,"33":0.005,"34":0.01,"37":0.005,"39":0.005,"42":0.005,"43":0.005,"44":0.005,"55":0.005,"69":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"2":0.005,"3":0.005,"4":0.02,"5":0.045,"6":0.085,"7":0.085,"8":0.09,"9":0.1,"10":0.12,"11":0.085,"12":0.14,"13":0.05,"14":0.07,"15":0.035,"16":0.015,"17":0.01,"18":0.025,"19":0.005,"20":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"1":0.015,"2":0.005,"3":0.01,"4":0.025,"5":0.105,"6":0.105,"7":0.125,"8":0.12,"9":0.12,"10":0.105,"11":0.105,"12":0.07,"13":0.055,"14":0.02,"15":0.005,"16":0.005,"17":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.01,"1":0.06,"2":0.04,"3":0.105,"4":0.075,"5":0.12,"6":0.09,"7":0.1,"8":0.075,"9":0.055,"10":0.06,"11":0.04,"12":0.01,"13":0.035,"14":0.025,"15":0.005,"16":0.015,"17":0.01,"18":0.005,"22":0.015,"23":0.015,"26":0.005,"27":0.015,"28":0.005,"32":0.005,"35":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1730332800000,"validUntil":1730937600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":3,"actual":1,"trainingCount":5866,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2024","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.28889999999999993,"mean":1.36,"median":1,"bias":0.3600000000000001,"maeMean":0.3600000000000001,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.39,"pitUpper":0.695,"empiricalMass":0.305,"logScore":1.1874435023747254},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.23885,"mean":0.85,"median":1,"bias":-0.15000000000000002,"maeMean":0.15000000000000002,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.44,"pitUpper":0.795,"empiricalMass":0.355,"logScore":1.0356374895067213},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.31967500000000004,"mean":1.355,"median":1,"bias":0.355,"maeMean":0.355,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.41,"pitUpper":0.675,"empiricalMass":0.265,"logScore":1.3280254529959148},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.26817500000000005,"mean":1.395,"median":1,"bias":0.395,"maeMean":0.395,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.265,"pitUpper":0.6,"empiricalMass":0.335,"logScore":1.0936247471570706},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.27779999999999994,"mean":1.28,"median":1,"bias":0.28,"maeMean":0.28,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.335,"pitUpper":0.63,"empiricalMass":0.295,"logScore":1.2207799226423173},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.28817499999999996,"mean":1.265,"median":1,"bias":0.2649999999999999,"maeMean":0.2649999999999999,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.41,"pitUpper":0.715,"empiricalMass":0.305,"logScore":1.1874435023747254}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.39,"1":0.305,"2":0.13,"3":0.095,"4":0.03,"5":0.01,"7":0.02,"9":0.005,"10":0.01,"11":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.44,"1":0.355,"2":0.155,"3":0.025,"4":0.015,"5":0.01},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.41,"1":0.265,"2":0.165,"3":0.05,"4":0.035,"5":0.03,"6":0.025,"7":0.01,"8":0.005,"12":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.265,"1":0.335,"2":0.215,"3":0.125,"4":0.05,"5":0.005,"6":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.335,"1":0.295,"2":0.215,"3":0.09,"4":0.045,"5":0.015,"6":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.41,"1":0.305,"2":0.135,"3":0.045,"4":0.045,"5":0.025,"6":0.02,"8":0.01,"10":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1730332800000,"validUntil":1730937600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5866,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2024","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.014800000000000008,"mean":0.14,"median":0,"bias":0.14,"maeMean":0.14,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.88,"empiricalMass":0.88,"logScore":0.12783337150988489},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.012325000000000003,"mean":0.125,"median":0,"bias":0.125,"maeMean":0.125,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.89,"empiricalMass":0.89,"logScore":0.11653381625595151},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.02857499999999999,"mean":0.215,"median":0,"bias":0.215,"maeMean":0.215,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.835,"empiricalMass":0.835,"logScore":0.18032355413128162},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.022724999999999995,"mean":0.165,"median":0,"bias":0.165,"maeMean":0.165,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.85,"empiricalMass":0.85,"logScore":0.16251892949777494},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.046325000000000005,"mean":0.225,"median":0,"bias":0.225,"maeMean":0.225,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.785,"empiricalMass":0.785,"logScore":0.24207156119972859},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.027650000000000008,"mean":0.19,"median":0,"bias":0.19,"maeMean":0.19,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.835,"empiricalMass":0.835,"logScore":0.18032355413128162}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.88,"1":0.1,"2":0.02},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.89,"1":0.095,"2":0.015},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.835,"1":0.13,"2":0.025,"3":0.005,"4":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.85,"1":0.135,"2":0.015},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.785,"1":0.205,"2":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.835,"1":0.145,"2":0.015,"3":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1730332800000,"validUntil":1732924800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":2,"actual":21,"trainingCount":5866,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2024","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":20.9094,"mean":57.27,"median":48,"bias":36.27,"maeMean":36.27,"maeMedian":27,"low":25,"high":115,"coverage":false,"width":90,"pitLower":0.015,"pitUpper":0.02,"empiricalMass":0.005,"logScore":5.298317366548036},"rollingETAS":{"crps":3.2802999999999995,"mean":27.45,"median":26,"bias":6.449999999999999,"maeMean":6.449999999999999,"maeMedian":5,"low":16,"high":44,"coverage":true,"width":28,"pitLower":0.185,"pitUpper":0.235,"empiricalMass":0.05,"logScore":2.995732273553991},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":18.05975,"mean":52.45,"median":47.5,"bias":31.450000000000003,"maeMean":31.450000000000003,"maeMedian":26.5,"low":23,"high":102,"coverage":false,"width":79,"pitLower":0.035,"pitUpper":0.035,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":19.63075,"mean":44.45,"median":45,"bias":23.450000000000003,"maeMean":23.450000000000003,"maeMedian":24,"low":33,"high":55,"coverage":false,"width":22,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentPoisson":{"crps":12.272849999999998,"mean":36.51,"median":36,"bias":15.509999999999998,"maeMean":15.509999999999998,"maeMedian":15,"low":27,"high":46,"coverage":false,"width":19,"pitLower":0.005,"pitUpper":0.005,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":7.396274999999999,"mean":35.305,"median":32,"bias":14.305,"maeMean":14.305,"maeMedian":11,"low":10,"high":70,"coverage":true,"width":60,"pitLower":0.245,"pitUpper":0.25,"empiricalMass":0.005,"logScore":5.298317366548036}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"17":0.005,"19":0.01,"21":0.005,"22":0.01,"24":0.005,"25":0.015,"26":0.01,"28":0.02,"29":0.01,"30":0.02,"31":0.03,"32":0.025,"33":0.01,"34":0.02,"35":0.01,"36":0.025,"37":0.03,"38":0.015,"39":0.02,"40":0.02,"41":0.02,"42":0.015,"43":0.015,"44":0.03,"45":0.035,"46":0.025,"47":0.02,"48":0.03,"49":0.02,"50":0.02,"51":0.005,"52":0.01,"53":0.01,"54":0.015,"55":0.02,"56":0.005,"57":0.03,"58":0.02,"59":0.02,"60":0.01,"61":0.025,"62":0.01,"63":0.01,"64":0.005,"65":0.015,"66":0.01,"67":0.005,"68":0.02,"70":0.015,"71":0.005,"72":0.01,"73":0.005,"74":0.005,"75":0.005,"76":0.005,"77":0.005,"78":0.005,"79":0.005,"80":0.005,"83":0.005,"84":0.005,"85":0.005,"87":0.005,"89":0.005,"90":0.005,"91":0.005,"98":0.005,"99":0.005,"101":0.005,"104":0.005,"105":0.005,"108":0.005,"109":0.005,"110":0.005,"114":0.01,"115":0.005,"116":0.005,"126":0.005,"127":0.005,"130":0.005,"133":0.005,"144":0.005,"151":0.005,"175":0.005,"220":0.005,"284":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"12":0.005,"14":0.015,"15":0.01,"16":0.03,"17":0.025,"18":0.015,"19":0.04,"20":0.045,"21":0.05,"22":0.045,"23":0.07,"24":0.04,"25":0.06,"26":0.065,"27":0.07,"28":0.035,"29":0.06,"30":0.04,"31":0.03,"32":0.03,"33":0.025,"34":0.02,"35":0.025,"36":0.02,"37":0.02,"38":0.015,"40":0.02,"41":0.005,"42":0.015,"44":0.01,"45":0.015,"46":0.005,"47":0.005,"48":0.005,"52":0.005,"55":0.005,"59":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"12":0.005,"13":0.005,"17":0.005,"18":0.005,"19":0.01,"20":0.005,"23":0.025,"24":0.015,"25":0.01,"26":0.01,"27":0.015,"28":0.02,"29":0.02,"30":0.015,"31":0.02,"32":0.04,"33":0.03,"34":0.02,"35":0.01,"36":0.035,"37":0.005,"38":0.01,"39":0.035,"41":0.005,"42":0.02,"43":0.015,"44":0.025,"45":0.035,"46":0.015,"47":0.015,"48":0.015,"49":0.01,"50":0.01,"51":0.03,"52":0.02,"53":0.02,"54":0.055,"55":0.035,"56":0.01,"57":0.005,"58":0.01,"59":0.015,"60":0.01,"61":0.02,"62":0.01,"63":0.005,"64":0.005,"65":0.01,"66":0.01,"68":0.005,"69":0.02,"70":0.005,"71":0.005,"72":0.005,"73":0.005,"77":0.005,"78":0.005,"79":0.01,"80":0.005,"81":0.01,"84":0.015,"85":0.005,"86":0.005,"87":0.01,"88":0.01,"89":0.005,"92":0.005,"98":0.005,"102":0.005,"110":0.005,"113":0.005,"124":0.005,"131":0.01,"139":0.005,"140":0.005,"162":0.005,"166":0.005,"169":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"28":0.01,"30":0.005,"31":0.01,"32":0.015,"33":0.01,"34":0.015,"35":0.035,"36":0.03,"37":0.035,"38":0.045,"39":0.055,"40":0.02,"41":0.05,"42":0.04,"43":0.06,"44":0.055,"45":0.065,"46":0.055,"47":0.035,"48":0.06,"49":0.075,"50":0.025,"51":0.05,"52":0.025,"53":0.04,"54":0.02,"55":0.01,"56":0.025,"58":0.005,"59":0.005,"60":0.005,"61":0.005,"62":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"19":0.005,"25":0.015,"26":0.02,"27":0.01,"28":0.035,"29":0.035,"30":0.035,"31":0.045,"32":0.045,"33":0.07,"34":0.045,"35":0.065,"36":0.085,"37":0.08,"38":0.06,"39":0.05,"40":0.06,"41":0.03,"42":0.045,"43":0.035,"44":0.04,"45":0.015,"46":0.03,"47":0.02,"48":0.015,"49":0.005,"52":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"4":0.005,"6":0.005,"7":0.01,"8":0.015,"10":0.02,"12":0.01,"13":0.03,"14":0.02,"15":0.01,"16":0.025,"17":0.035,"18":0.02,"19":0.035,"20":0.005,"21":0.005,"22":0.01,"23":0.035,"24":0.035,"25":0.015,"26":0.01,"27":0.01,"28":0.055,"29":0.015,"30":0.035,"31":0.01,"32":0.05,"33":0.015,"34":0.02,"35":0.01,"36":0.015,"37":0.005,"38":0.02,"39":0.005,"40":0.02,"41":0.04,"42":0.005,"43":0.005,"44":0.015,"46":0.015,"47":0.01,"48":0.005,"49":0.015,"50":0.02,"51":0.02,"52":0.025,"53":0.01,"54":0.025,"55":0.005,"56":0.015,"57":0.015,"58":0.01,"59":0.015,"60":0.005,"61":0.01,"62":0.01,"68":0.01,"70":0.01,"71":0.005,"72":0.005,"74":0.01,"75":0.005,"79":0.005,"88":0.005,"92":0.01}}},{"issuedAt":1730332800000,"validUntil":1732924800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":3,"actual":2,"trainingCount":5866,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2024","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":2.7163000000000004,"mean":7.21,"median":6,"bias":5.21,"maeMean":5.21,"maeMedian":4,"low":2,"high":16,"coverage":true,"width":14,"pitLower":0.045,"pitUpper":0.15,"empiricalMass":0.105,"logScore":2.2537949288246137},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.73455,"mean":3.37,"median":3,"bias":1.37,"maeMean":1.37,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":7,"coverage":true,"width":7,"pitLower":0.21,"pitUpper":0.38,"empiricalMass":0.17,"logScore":1.7719568419318752},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":2.1333,"mean":6.36,"median":5,"bias":4.36,"maeMean":4.36,"maeMedian":3,"low":1,"high":16,"coverage":true,"width":15,"pitLower":0.075,"pitUpper":0.185,"empiricalMass":0.11,"logScore":2.2072749131897207},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":2.7867250000000006,"mean":6.055,"median":6,"bias":4.055,"maeMean":4.055,"maeMedian":4,"low":3,"high":10,"coverage":false,"width":7,"pitLower":0.005,"pitUpper":0.045,"empiricalMass":0.04,"logScore":3.2188758248682006},"recentPoisson":{"crps":2.0288749999999998,"mean":5.335,"median":5,"bias":3.335,"maeMean":3.335,"maeMedian":3,"low":2,"high":9,"coverage":true,"width":7,"pitLower":0.04,"pitUpper":0.12,"empiricalMass":0.08,"logScore":2.5257286443082556},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":1.7872500000000002,"mean":5.69,"median":5,"bias":3.6900000000000004,"maeMean":3.6900000000000004,"maeMedian":3,"low":1,"high":13,"coverage":true,"width":12,"pitLower":0.085,"pitUpper":0.23,"empiricalMass":0.145,"logScore":1.9310215365615626}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.01,"1":0.035,"2":0.105,"3":0.075,"4":0.09,"5":0.12,"6":0.105,"7":0.095,"8":0.075,"9":0.03,"10":0.055,"11":0.05,"12":0.03,"13":0.025,"14":0.02,"15":0.025,"16":0.02,"17":0.01,"19":0.005,"21":0.005,"23":0.005,"34":0.005,"40":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.105,"1":0.105,"2":0.17,"3":0.2,"4":0.145,"5":0.105,"6":0.065,"7":0.055,"8":0.03,"9":0.01,"10":0.005,"13":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.035,"1":0.04,"2":0.11,"3":0.12,"4":0.09,"5":0.14,"6":0.065,"7":0.1,"8":0.09,"9":0.025,"10":0.04,"11":0.03,"12":0.01,"13":0.02,"14":0.015,"15":0.005,"16":0.015,"17":0.01,"18":0.005,"19":0.005,"20":0.01,"21":0.005,"22":0.005,"23":0.005,"25":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"1":0.005,"2":0.04,"3":0.085,"4":0.12,"5":0.195,"6":0.155,"7":0.16,"8":0.09,"9":0.08,"10":0.03,"11":0.015,"12":0.02,"13":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.005,"1":0.035,"2":0.08,"3":0.125,"4":0.195,"5":0.085,"6":0.17,"7":0.13,"8":0.05,"9":0.075,"10":0.01,"11":0.025,"12":0.015},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.025,"1":0.06,"2":0.145,"3":0.135,"4":0.1,"5":0.11,"6":0.08,"7":0.06,"8":0.07,"9":0.04,"10":0.04,"11":0.025,"12":0.03,"13":0.035,"14":0.03,"16":0.005,"17":0.005,"18":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1730332800000,"validUntil":1732924800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5866,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2024","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.31510000000000005,"mean":0.91,"median":1,"bias":0.91,"maeMean":0.91,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.495,"empiricalMass":0.495,"logScore":0.7031975164134467},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.11095,"mean":0.42,"median":0,"bias":0.42,"maeMean":0.42,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.675,"empiricalMass":0.675,"logScore":0.3930425881096072},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.24867499999999998,"mean":0.775,"median":0,"bias":0.775,"maeMean":0.775,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.545,"empiricalMass":0.545,"logScore":0.6069694843188929},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.28282499999999994,"mean":0.705,"median":1,"bias":0.705,"maeMean":0.705,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.49,"empiricalMass":0.49,"logScore":0.7133498878774648},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.33382500000000004,"mean":0.765,"median":1,"bias":0.765,"maeMean":0.765,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.45,"empiricalMass":0.45,"logScore":0.7985076962177716},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.3555750000000001,"mean":0.915,"median":1,"bias":0.915,"maeMean":0.915,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.46,"empiricalMass":0.46,"logScore":0.7765287894989963}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.495,"1":0.285,"2":0.125,"3":0.05,"4":0.025,"5":0.01,"7":0.005,"8":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.675,"1":0.255,"2":0.05,"3":0.015,"4":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.545,"1":0.275,"2":0.09,"3":0.06,"4":0.015,"5":0.01,"6":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.49,"1":0.365,"2":0.105,"3":0.03,"4":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.45,"1":0.375,"2":0.15,"3":0.02,"6":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.46,"1":0.31,"2":0.135,"3":0.05,"4":0.04,"5":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1732924800000,"validUntil":1733011200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":2,"actual":1,"trainingCount":5887,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2024","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.3258000000000001,"mean":1.14,"median":1,"bias":0.1399999999999999,"maeMean":0.1399999999999999,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.48,"pitUpper":0.74,"empiricalMass":0.26,"logScore":1.3470736479666092},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.2440000000000001,"mean":0.98,"median":1,"bias":-0.020000000000000018,"maeMean":0.020000000000000018,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.415,"pitUpper":0.745,"empiricalMass":0.33,"logScore":1.1086626245216111},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.3323999999999999,"mean":1.19,"median":1,"bias":0.18999999999999995,"maeMean":0.18999999999999995,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.485,"pitUpper":0.735,"empiricalMass":0.25,"logScore":1.3862943611198906},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.3167,"mean":1.61,"median":1,"bias":0.6100000000000001,"maeMean":0.6100000000000001,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.21,"pitUpper":0.54,"empiricalMass":0.33,"logScore":1.1086626245216111},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.2471,"mean":1.21,"median":1,"bias":0.20999999999999996,"maeMean":0.20999999999999996,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.31,"pitUpper":0.625,"empiricalMass":0.315,"logScore":1.155182640156504},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.3675999999999999,"mean":1.21,"median":1,"bias":0.20999999999999996,"maeMean":0.20999999999999996,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.485,"pitUpper":0.705,"empiricalMass":0.22,"logScore":1.5141277326297755}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.48,"1":0.26,"2":0.13,"3":0.055,"4":0.025,"5":0.01,"6":0.015,"7":0.005,"8":0.01,"9":0.005,"11":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.415,"1":0.33,"2":0.185,"3":0.035,"4":0.015,"5":0.005,"6":0.015},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.485,"1":0.25,"2":0.13,"3":0.075,"4":0.01,"5":0.02,"7":0.01,"8":0.015,"25":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.21,"1":0.33,"2":0.23,"3":0.145,"4":0.06,"5":0.01,"6":0.01,"7":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.31,"1":0.315,"2":0.28,"3":0.06,"4":0.025,"5":0.005,"6":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.485,"1":0.22,"2":0.135,"3":0.04,"4":0.05,"5":0.055,"6":0.005,"7":0.005,"12":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1732924800000,"validUntil":1733011200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":3,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5887,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2024","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.013825000000000004,"mean":0.165,"median":0,"bias":0.165,"maeMean":0.165,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.89,"empiricalMass":0.89,"logScore":0.11653381625595151},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.01565000000000001,"mean":0.13,"median":0,"bias":0.13,"maeMean":0.13,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.875,"empiricalMass":0.875,"logScore":0.13353139262452263},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.010525000000000007,"mean":0.155,"median":0,"bias":0.155,"maeMean":0.155,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.905,"empiricalMass":0.905,"logScore":0.0998203352822109},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.04039999999999999,"mean":0.22,"median":0,"bias":0.22,"maeMean":0.22,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.8,"empiricalMass":0.8,"logScore":0.2231435513142097},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.027349999999999985,"mean":0.18,"median":0,"bias":0.18,"maeMean":0.18,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.835,"empiricalMass":0.835,"logScore":0.18032355413128162},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.03184999999999999,"mean":0.21,"median":0,"bias":0.21,"maeMean":0.21,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.825,"empiricalMass":0.825,"logScore":0.19237189264745613}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.89,"1":0.07,"2":0.03,"3":0.005,"4":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.875,"1":0.12,"2":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.905,"1":0.06,"2":0.02,"3":0.01,"5":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.8,"1":0.18,"2":0.02},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.835,"1":0.155,"2":0.005,"3":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.825,"1":0.14,"2":0.035}}},{"issuedAt":1732924800000,"validUntil":1733011200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5887,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2024","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.0012250000000000039,"mean":0.035,"median":0,"bias":0.035,"maeMean":0.035,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.965,"empiricalMass":0.965,"logScore":0.03562717764315116},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.0006250000000000006,"mean":0.025,"median":0,"bias":0.025,"maeMean":0.025,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.975,"empiricalMass":0.975,"logScore":0.025317807984289897},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.0006250000000000006,"mean":0.025,"median":0,"bias":0.025,"maeMean":0.025,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.975,"empiricalMass":0.975,"logScore":0.025317807984289897},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.0016000000000000042,"mean":0.04,"median":0,"bias":0.04,"maeMean":0.04,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.96,"empiricalMass":0.96,"logScore":0.040821994520255166},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.0000999999999999994,"mean":0.01,"median":0,"bias":0.01,"maeMean":0.01,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.99,"empiricalMass":0.99,"logScore":0.01005033585350145},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.0006250000000000006,"mean":0.025,"median":0,"bias":0.025,"maeMean":0.025,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.975,"empiricalMass":0.975,"logScore":0.025317807984289897}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.965,"1":0.035},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.975,"1":0.025},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.975,"1":0.025},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.96,"1":0.04},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.99,"1":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.975,"1":0.025}}},{"issuedAt":1732924800000,"validUntil":1733529600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":2,"actual":9,"trainingCount":5887,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2024","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":1.387575,"mean":10.225,"median":8,"bias":1.2249999999999996,"maeMean":1.2249999999999996,"maeMedian":1,"low":3,"high":25,"coverage":true,"width":22,"pitLower":0.525,"pitUpper":0.61,"empiricalMass":0.085,"logScore":2.4651040224918206},"rollingETAS":{"crps":2.114325,"mean":5.985,"median":5.5,"bias":-3.0149999999999997,"maeMean":3.0149999999999997,"maeMedian":3.5,"low":2,"high":10,"coverage":true,"width":8,"pitLower":0.83,"pitUpper":0.885,"empiricalMass":0.055,"logScore":2.900422093749666},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":1.140825,"mean":9.075,"median":8.5,"bias":0.07499999999999929,"maeMean":0.07499999999999929,"maeMedian":0.5,"low":1,"high":18,"coverage":true,"width":17,"pitLower":0.5,"pitUpper":0.625,"empiricalMass":0.125,"logScore":2.0794415416798357},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.92805,"mean":10.46,"median":10,"bias":1.4600000000000009,"maeMean":1.4600000000000009,"maeMedian":1,"low":6,"high":16,"coverage":true,"width":10,"pitLower":0.25,"pitUpper":0.41,"empiricalMass":0.16,"logScore":1.8325814637483102},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.7936000000000001,"mean":8.51,"median":8,"bias":-0.4900000000000002,"maeMean":0.4900000000000002,"maeMedian":1,"low":4,"high":14,"coverage":true,"width":10,"pitLower":0.555,"pitUpper":0.665,"empiricalMass":0.11,"logScore":2.2072749131897207},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":1.6819499999999996,"mean":8.44,"median":7,"bias":-0.5600000000000005,"maeMean":0.5600000000000005,"maeMedian":2,"low":1,"high":23,"coverage":true,"width":22,"pitLower":0.62,"pitUpper":0.655,"empiricalMass":0.035,"logScore":3.3524072174927233}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"1":0.005,"2":0.04,"3":0.055,"4":0.09,"5":0.095,"6":0.05,"7":0.125,"8":0.065,"9":0.085,"10":0.035,"11":0.05,"12":0.035,"13":0.04,"14":0.04,"15":0.03,"16":0.015,"17":0.01,"18":0.02,"19":0.01,"20":0.01,"21":0.01,"22":0.02,"23":0.005,"24":0.005,"25":0.005,"27":0.01,"28":0.02,"29":0.005,"32":0.005,"48":0.005,"57":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"1":0.03,"2":0.05,"3":0.13,"4":0.145,"5":0.145,"6":0.145,"7":0.105,"8":0.08,"9":0.055,"10":0.065,"11":0.015,"12":0.01,"14":0.01,"15":0.005,"24":0.005,"30":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.005,"1":0.045,"2":0.035,"3":0.04,"4":0.1,"5":0.08,"6":0.055,"7":0.05,"8":0.09,"9":0.125,"10":0.06,"11":0.065,"12":0.03,"13":0.055,"14":0.035,"15":0.04,"16":0.01,"17":0.02,"18":0.015,"19":0.01,"21":0.005,"25":0.005,"26":0.005,"27":0.005,"34":0.005,"36":0.005,"46":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"4":0.02,"5":0.02,"6":0.06,"7":0.08,"8":0.07,"9":0.16,"10":0.11,"11":0.11,"12":0.115,"13":0.08,"14":0.095,"15":0.025,"16":0.035,"17":0.005,"18":0.01,"20":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"1":0.005,"2":0.01,"3":0.015,"4":0.045,"5":0.07,"6":0.11,"7":0.16,"8":0.14,"9":0.11,"10":0.09,"11":0.07,"12":0.075,"13":0.03,"14":0.025,"15":0.02,"16":0.015,"17":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.02,"1":0.065,"2":0.045,"3":0.085,"4":0.08,"5":0.115,"6":0.07,"7":0.095,"8":0.045,"9":0.035,"10":0.06,"11":0.055,"12":0.03,"13":0.045,"14":0.01,"15":0.025,"16":0.01,"17":0.005,"18":0.01,"19":0.01,"20":0.01,"21":0.005,"22":0.015,"23":0.02,"25":0.01,"27":0.005,"30":0.005,"31":0.015}}},{"issuedAt":1732924800000,"validUntil":1733529600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":3,"actual":2,"trainingCount":5887,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2024","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.6954999999999999,"mean":1.21,"median":1,"bias":-0.79,"maeMean":0.79,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.715,"pitUpper":0.855,"empiricalMass":0.14,"logScore":1.9661128563728327},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.9888999999999999,"mean":0.72,"median":0,"bias":-1.28,"maeMean":1.28,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.84,"pitUpper":0.955,"empiricalMass":0.115,"logScore":2.162823150618887},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.78945,"mean":1.03,"median":1,"bias":-0.97,"maeMean":0.97,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.75,"pitUpper":0.89,"empiricalMass":0.14,"logScore":1.9661128563728327},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.447125,"mean":1.435,"median":1,"bias":-0.565,"maeMean":0.565,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.575,"pitUpper":0.795,"empiricalMass":0.22,"logScore":1.5141277326297755},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.4952500000000001,"mean":1.26,"median":1,"bias":-0.74,"maeMean":0.74,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.65,"pitUpper":0.895,"empiricalMass":0.245,"logScore":1.40649706843741},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.892175,"mean":1.105,"median":1,"bias":-0.895,"maeMean":0.895,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.78,"pitUpper":0.84,"empiricalMass":0.06,"logScore":2.8134107167600364}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.395,"1":0.32,"2":0.14,"3":0.075,"4":0.04,"6":0.01,"7":0.015,"12":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.53,"1":0.31,"2":0.115,"3":0.03,"4":0.01,"10":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.46,"1":0.29,"2":0.14,"3":0.065,"4":0.025,"6":0.005,"7":0.005,"8":0.005,"12":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.265,"1":0.31,"2":0.22,"3":0.14,"4":0.06,"5":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.245,"1":0.405,"2":0.245,"3":0.065,"4":0.03,"5":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.495,"1":0.285,"2":0.06,"3":0.07,"4":0.03,"5":0.03,"6":0.01,"7":0.01,"8":0.005,"10":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1732924800000,"validUntil":1733529600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5887,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2024","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.01112500000000001,"mean":0.115,"median":0,"bias":0.115,"maeMean":0.115,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.895,"empiricalMass":0.895,"logScore":0.11093156070728166},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.0056749999999999995,"mean":0.085,"median":0,"bias":0.085,"maeMean":0.085,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.925,"empiricalMass":0.925,"logScore":0.0779615414697118},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.0024249999999999966,"mean":0.065,"median":0,"bias":0.065,"maeMean":0.065,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.955,"empiricalMass":0.955,"logScore":0.046043938501406846},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.022499999999999992,"mean":0.15,"median":0,"bias":0.15,"maeMean":0.15,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.85,"empiricalMass":0.85,"logScore":0.16251892949777494},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.022625000000000006,"mean":0.165,"median":0,"bias":0.165,"maeMean":0.165,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.85,"empiricalMass":0.85,"logScore":0.16251892949777494},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.04435,"mean":0.23,"median":0,"bias":0.23,"maeMean":0.23,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.79,"empiricalMass":0.79,"logScore":0.23572233352106983}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.895,"1":0.095,"2":0.01},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.925,"1":0.07,"3":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.955,"1":0.025,"2":0.02},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.85,"1":0.15},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.85,"1":0.14,"2":0.005,"3":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.79,"1":0.195,"2":0.01,"3":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1732924800000,"validUntil":1735516800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":2,"actual":25,"trainingCount":5887,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2024","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":14.475624999999997,"mean":55.465,"median":45,"bias":30.465000000000003,"maeMean":30.465000000000003,"maeMedian":20,"low":22,"high":120,"coverage":true,"width":98,"pitLower":0.08,"pitUpper":0.09,"empiricalMass":0.01,"logScore":4.605170185988091},"rollingETAS":{"crps":1.869675,"mean":27.385,"median":26,"bias":2.3850000000000016,"maeMean":2.3850000000000016,"maeMedian":1,"low":17,"high":43,"coverage":true,"width":26,"pitLower":0.405,"pitUpper":0.46,"empiricalMass":0.055,"logScore":2.900422093749666},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":16.377325000000003,"mean":53.895,"median":48,"bias":28.895000000000003,"maeMean":28.895000000000003,"maeMedian":23,"low":24,"high":105,"coverage":true,"width":81,"pitLower":0.055,"pitUpper":0.07,"empiricalMass":0.015,"logScore":4.199705077879927},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":15.634075000000001,"mean":44.675,"median":45,"bias":19.674999999999997,"maeMean":19.674999999999997,"maeMedian":20,"low":33,"high":56,"coverage":false,"width":23,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentPoisson":{"crps":7.572275000000001,"mean":35.855,"median":36,"bias":10.854999999999997,"maeMean":10.854999999999997,"maeMedian":11,"low":27,"high":45,"coverage":false,"width":18,"pitLower":0.015,"pitUpper":0.02,"empiricalMass":0.005,"logScore":5.298317366548036},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":6.188025,"mean":36.255,"median":35,"bias":11.255000000000003,"maeMean":11.255000000000003,"maeMedian":10,"low":9,"high":71,"coverage":true,"width":62,"pitLower":0.29,"pitUpper":0.3,"empiricalMass":0.01,"logScore":4.605170185988091}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"12":0.005,"15":0.005,"16":0.005,"17":0.005,"20":0.01,"21":0.005,"22":0.02,"23":0.015,"24":0.01,"25":0.01,"26":0.025,"27":0.005,"28":0.005,"29":0.035,"30":0.005,"31":0.035,"32":0.015,"33":0.02,"34":0.015,"35":0.01,"36":0.015,"37":0.03,"38":0.04,"39":0.03,"40":0.025,"41":0.015,"42":0.02,"43":0.02,"44":0.04,"45":0.02,"46":0.01,"47":0.01,"48":0.015,"49":0.015,"50":0.015,"51":0.03,"52":0.01,"53":0.03,"54":0.01,"55":0.025,"56":0.01,"57":0.01,"58":0.005,"59":0.005,"60":0.005,"61":0.015,"63":0.005,"64":0.005,"65":0.01,"66":0.01,"69":0.02,"70":0.005,"71":0.005,"72":0.01,"73":0.005,"75":0.005,"76":0.01,"77":0.005,"78":0.01,"79":0.01,"80":0.01,"81":0.005,"82":0.005,"83":0.005,"86":0.01,"88":0.005,"89":0.005,"90":0.005,"91":0.015,"92":0.005,"95":0.01,"103":0.005,"109":0.005,"116":0.005,"120":0.005,"125":0.005,"126":0.005,"131":0.005,"148":0.005,"155":0.005,"161":0.005,"177":0.005,"228":0.005,"245":0.005,"310":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"9":0.005,"13":0.01,"15":0.015,"16":0.015,"17":0.04,"18":0.04,"19":0.025,"20":0.05,"21":0.01,"22":0.065,"23":0.08,"24":0.05,"25":0.055,"26":0.065,"27":0.025,"28":0.055,"29":0.045,"30":0.05,"31":0.035,"32":0.04,"33":0.03,"34":0.015,"35":0.02,"36":0.015,"37":0.03,"38":0.02,"39":0.015,"40":0.015,"41":0.005,"42":0.005,"43":0.005,"44":0.01,"45":0.015,"46":0.005,"47":0.01,"50":0.01},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"18":0.005,"19":0.01,"20":0.005,"21":0.005,"22":0.01,"23":0.01,"24":0.01,"25":0.015,"26":0.005,"27":0.02,"28":0.015,"29":0.005,"30":0.01,"31":0.01,"32":0.02,"33":0.03,"34":0.005,"35":0.025,"36":0.04,"37":0.015,"38":0.005,"39":0.035,"40":0.025,"41":0.015,"42":0.005,"43":0.025,"44":0.01,"45":0.035,"46":0.03,"47":0.035,"48":0.03,"49":0.02,"50":0.005,"51":0.03,"53":0.015,"54":0.015,"55":0.01,"56":0.01,"57":0.015,"58":0.03,"59":0.02,"60":0.005,"62":0.005,"63":0.025,"64":0.01,"65":0.02,"66":0.02,"67":0.005,"68":0.005,"69":0.005,"70":0.01,"71":0.015,"72":0.01,"74":0.01,"75":0.005,"76":0.005,"77":0.015,"78":0.005,"79":0.005,"80":0.005,"81":0.01,"82":0.005,"84":0.005,"85":0.01,"86":0.005,"87":0.005,"88":0.005,"90":0.01,"92":0.01,"105":0.01,"107":0.005,"108":0.005,"109":0.005,"114":0.005,"115":0.01,"120":0.005,"123":0.005,"152":0.005,"176":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"27":0.005,"28":0.005,"30":0.005,"31":0.015,"32":0.015,"33":0.01,"34":0.025,"35":0.015,"36":0.035,"37":0.04,"38":0.045,"39":0.035,"40":0.04,"41":0.055,"42":0.03,"43":0.05,"44":0.06,"45":0.055,"46":0.065,"47":0.05,"48":0.055,"49":0.04,"50":0.025,"51":0.06,"52":0.035,"53":0.02,"54":0.015,"55":0.03,"56":0.015,"57":0.015,"58":0.01,"59":0.015,"61":0.005,"70":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"21":0.005,"23":0.005,"24":0.005,"25":0.005,"26":0.025,"27":0.03,"28":0.03,"29":0.03,"30":0.04,"31":0.07,"32":0.08,"33":0.06,"34":0.055,"35":0.045,"36":0.07,"37":0.095,"38":0.04,"39":0.025,"40":0.045,"41":0.05,"42":0.065,"43":0.025,"44":0.015,"45":0.035,"46":0.005,"47":0.005,"48":0.025,"51":0.01,"54":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"2":0.005,"3":0.005,"5":0.005,"6":0.01,"8":0.015,"9":0.01,"10":0.01,"11":0.015,"12":0.015,"13":0.02,"14":0.005,"15":0.025,"16":0.01,"17":0.02,"18":0.01,"19":0.01,"20":0.01,"21":0.015,"22":0.03,"23":0.02,"24":0.025,"25":0.01,"26":0.02,"27":0.01,"28":0.02,"29":0.035,"30":0.015,"31":0.02,"32":0.02,"33":0.02,"34":0.035,"35":0.03,"36":0.025,"37":0.03,"38":0.03,"39":0.025,"40":0.02,"41":0.03,"42":0.02,"43":0.03,"44":0.005,"45":0.005,"46":0.015,"47":0.01,"48":0.02,"49":0.005,"50":0.015,"51":0.02,"53":0.005,"54":0.015,"56":0.005,"57":0.01,"59":0.005,"60":0.005,"61":0.005,"62":0.01,"64":0.015,"65":0.02,"66":0.005,"67":0.005,"69":0.005,"70":0.005,"71":0.005,"74":0.005,"75":0.01,"76":0.005,"77":0.005,"78":0.005,"83":0.005,"88":0.005,"102":0.005,"106":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1732924800000,"validUntil":1735516800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":3,"actual":4,"trainingCount":5887,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2024","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":1.0669499999999998,"mean":6.82,"median":5,"bias":2.8200000000000003,"maeMean":2.8200000000000003,"maeMedian":1,"low":1,"high":16,"coverage":true,"width":15,"pitLower":0.29,"pitUpper":0.41,"empiricalMass":0.12,"logScore":2.120263536200091},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.6126250000000002,"mean":3.415,"median":3,"bias":-0.585,"maeMean":0.585,"maeMedian":1,"low":1,"high":8,"coverage":true,"width":7,"pitLower":0.565,"pitUpper":0.73,"empiricalMass":0.165,"logScore":1.8018098050815563},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":1.4259750000000002,"mean":6.895,"median":6,"bias":2.8949999999999996,"maeMean":2.8949999999999996,"maeMedian":2,"low":1,"high":15,"coverage":true,"width":14,"pitLower":0.23,"pitUpper":0.31,"empiricalMass":0.08,"logScore":2.5257286443082556},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":1.062825,"mean":6.075,"median":6,"bias":2.075,"maeMean":2.075,"maeMedian":2,"low":3,"high":10,"coverage":true,"width":7,"pitLower":0.125,"pitUpper":0.3,"empiricalMass":0.175,"logScore":1.742969305058623},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.7446999999999999,"mean":5.34,"median":5,"bias":1.3399999999999999,"maeMean":1.3399999999999999,"maeMedian":1,"low":2,"high":9,"coverage":true,"width":7,"pitLower":0.21,"pitUpper":0.37,"empiricalMass":0.16,"logScore":1.8325814637483102},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.9105250000000003,"mean":5.375,"median":4.5,"bias":1.375,"maeMean":1.375,"maeMedian":0.5,"low":1,"high":14,"coverage":true,"width":13,"pitLower":0.39,"pitUpper":0.5,"empiricalMass":0.11,"logScore":2.2072749131897207}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.01,"1":0.045,"2":0.09,"3":0.145,"4":0.12,"5":0.125,"6":0.085,"7":0.09,"8":0.05,"9":0.055,"10":0.04,"11":0.03,"12":0.015,"13":0.02,"14":0.01,"15":0.01,"16":0.015,"17":0.01,"21":0.005,"23":0.005,"26":0.005,"33":0.005,"35":0.005,"45":0.005,"47":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.03,"1":0.135,"2":0.235,"3":0.165,"4":0.165,"5":0.115,"6":0.085,"7":0.015,"8":0.035,"9":0.015,"10":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.015,"1":0.045,"2":0.08,"3":0.09,"4":0.08,"5":0.12,"6":0.1,"7":0.1,"8":0.075,"9":0.085,"10":0.06,"11":0.035,"12":0.025,"13":0.01,"14":0.025,"15":0.005,"16":0.01,"17":0.01,"18":0.01,"20":0.01,"25":0.005,"32":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"1":0.005,"2":0.025,"3":0.095,"4":0.175,"5":0.17,"6":0.125,"7":0.145,"8":0.075,"9":0.1,"10":0.04,"11":0.03,"12":0.01,"14":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.01,"1":0.01,"2":0.065,"3":0.125,"4":0.16,"5":0.215,"6":0.145,"7":0.065,"8":0.125,"9":0.035,"10":0.025,"11":0.02},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.04,"1":0.115,"2":0.1,"3":0.135,"4":0.11,"5":0.075,"6":0.105,"7":0.085,"8":0.065,"9":0.03,"10":0.03,"11":0.02,"12":0.025,"13":0.01,"14":0.01,"15":0.01,"16":0.02,"17":0.005,"18":0.01}}},{"issuedAt":1732924800000,"validUntil":1735516800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":4,"actual":1,"trainingCount":5887,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2024","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.32657499999999995,"mean":0.935,"median":0,"bias":-0.06499999999999995,"maeMean":0.06499999999999995,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.515,"pitUpper":0.77,"empiricalMass":0.255,"logScore":1.3664917338237108},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.45942500000000003,"mean":0.405,"median":0,"bias":-0.595,"maeMean":0.595,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.675,"pitUpper":0.94,"empiricalMass":0.265,"logScore":1.3280254529959148},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.42269999999999996,"mean":0.71,"median":0,"bias":-0.29000000000000004,"maeMean":0.29000000000000004,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.615,"pitUpper":0.81,"empiricalMass":0.195,"logScore":1.6347557204183902},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.292075,"mean":0.715,"median":0,"bias":-0.28500000000000003,"maeMean":0.28500000000000003,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.515,"pitUpper":0.85,"empiricalMass":0.335,"logScore":1.0936247471570706},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.26144999999999996,"mean":0.78,"median":1,"bias":-0.21999999999999997,"maeMean":0.21999999999999997,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.47,"pitUpper":0.805,"empiricalMass":0.335,"logScore":1.0936247471570706},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.41989999999999994,"mean":0.55,"median":0,"bias":-0.44999999999999996,"maeMean":0.44999999999999996,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.635,"pitUpper":0.88,"empiricalMass":0.245,"logScore":1.40649706843741}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.515,"1":0.255,"2":0.16,"3":0.035,"4":0.005,"5":0.005,"6":0.005,"7":0.005,"8":0.005,"9":0.005,"12":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.675,"1":0.265,"2":0.05,"4":0.01},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.615,"1":0.195,"2":0.105,"3":0.055,"4":0.015,"5":0.01,"6":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.515,"1":0.335,"2":0.085,"3":0.055,"4":0.005,"5":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.47,"1":0.335,"2":0.145,"3":0.045,"4":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.635,"1":0.245,"2":0.075,"3":0.03,"4":0.01,"5":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1735516800000,"validUntil":1735603200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":2,"actual":2,"trainingCount":5912,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2024","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.7599000000000001,"mean":1.27,"median":1,"bias":-0.73,"maeMean":0.73,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.735,"pitUpper":0.84,"empiricalMass":0.105,"logScore":2.2537949288246137},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.938175,"mean":0.765,"median":1,"bias":-1.2349999999999999,"maeMean":1.2349999999999999,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.845,"pitUpper":0.945,"empiricalMass":0.1,"logScore":2.3025850929940455},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.7044500000000001,"mean":1.38,"median":1,"bias":-0.6200000000000001,"maeMean":0.6200000000000001,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.685,"pitUpper":0.825,"empiricalMass":0.14,"logScore":1.9661128563728327},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.458375,"mean":1.425,"median":1,"bias":-0.575,"maeMean":0.575,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.58,"pitUpper":0.795,"empiricalMass":0.215,"logScore":1.5371172508544744},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.643,"mean":1.14,"median":1,"bias":-0.8600000000000001,"maeMean":0.8600000000000001,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.72,"pitUpper":0.87,"empiricalMass":0.15,"logScore":1.8971199848858813},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.64875,"mean":1.14,"median":1,"bias":-0.8600000000000001,"maeMean":0.8600000000000001,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.685,"pitUpper":0.875,"empiricalMass":0.19,"logScore":1.6607312068216509}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.425,"1":0.31,"2":0.105,"3":0.07,"4":0.045,"5":0.005,"6":0.015,"7":0.005,"9":0.005,"10":0.01,"13":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.47,"1":0.375,"2":0.1,"3":0.045,"5":0.005,"6":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.435,"1":0.25,"2":0.14,"3":0.08,"4":0.04,"5":0.025,"6":0.005,"7":0.005,"8":0.005,"14":0.01,"16":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.275,"1":0.305,"2":0.215,"3":0.14,"4":0.055,"5":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.325,"1":0.395,"2":0.15,"3":0.085,"4":0.04,"6":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.4,"1":0.285,"2":0.19,"3":0.07,"4":0.03,"5":0.01,"6":0.01,"7":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1735516800000,"validUntil":1735603200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":3,"actual":1,"trainingCount":5912,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2024","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.758225,"mean":0.175,"median":0,"bias":-0.825,"maeMean":0.825,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0.87,"pitUpper":0.965,"empiricalMass":0.095,"logScore":2.353878387381596},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.87425,"mean":0.07,"median":0,"bias":-0.9299999999999999,"maeMean":0.9299999999999999,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0.935,"pitUpper":0.995,"empiricalMass":0.06,"logScore":2.8134107167600364},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.7845000000000001,"mean":0.16,"median":0,"bias":-0.84,"maeMean":0.84,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0.885,"pitUpper":0.965,"empiricalMass":0.08,"logScore":2.5257286443082556},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.6643249999999999,"mean":0.195,"median":0,"bias":-0.8049999999999999,"maeMean":0.8049999999999999,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0.815,"pitUpper":0.99,"empiricalMass":0.175,"logScore":1.742969305058623},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.792125,"mean":0.115,"median":0,"bias":-0.885,"maeMean":0.885,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0.89,"pitUpper":0.995,"empiricalMass":0.105,"logScore":2.2537949288246137},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.80125,"mean":0.12,"median":0,"bias":-0.88,"maeMean":0.88,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0.895,"pitUpper":0.985,"empiricalMass":0.09,"logScore":2.4079456086518722}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.87,"1":0.095,"2":0.025,"3":0.01},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.935,"1":0.06,"2":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.885,"1":0.08,"2":0.03,"4":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.815,"1":0.175,"2":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.89,"1":0.105,"2":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.895,"1":0.09,"2":0.015}}},{"issuedAt":1735516800000,"validUntil":1735603200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5912,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2024","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.00040000000000000105,"mean":0.02,"median":0,"bias":0.02,"maeMean":0.02,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.98,"empiricalMass":0.98,"logScore":0.020202707317519466},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.00002499999999999985,"mean":0.005,"median":0,"bias":0.005,"maeMean":0.005,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.995,"empiricalMass":0.995,"logScore":0.005012541823544286},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.0012500000000000011,"mean":0.04,"median":0,"bias":0.04,"maeMean":0.04,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.965,"empiricalMass":0.965,"logScore":0.03562717764315116},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.0006250000000000006,"mean":0.025,"median":0,"bias":0.025,"maeMean":0.025,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.975,"empiricalMass":0.975,"logScore":0.025317807984289897},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.000899999999999998,"mean":0.03,"median":0,"bias":0.03,"maeMean":0.03,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.97,"empiricalMass":0.97,"logScore":0.030459207484708574},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.00040000000000000105,"mean":0.02,"median":0,"bias":0.02,"maeMean":0.02,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.98,"empiricalMass":0.98,"logScore":0.020202707317519466}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.98,"1":0.02},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.995,"1":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.965,"1":0.03,"2":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.975,"1":0.025},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.97,"1":0.03},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.98,"1":0.02}}},{"issuedAt":1735516800000,"validUntil":1736121600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":2,"actual":7,"trainingCount":5912,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2024","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":1.5562749999999999,"mean":10.385,"median":9,"bias":3.385,"maeMean":3.385,"maeMedian":2,"low":2,"high":26,"coverage":true,"width":24,"pitLower":0.345,"pitUpper":0.415,"empiricalMass":0.07,"logScore":2.659260036932778},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.8510750000000002,"mean":6.465,"median":6,"bias":-0.5350000000000001,"maeMean":0.5350000000000001,"maeMedian":1,"low":2,"high":12,"coverage":true,"width":10,"pitLower":0.57,"pitUpper":0.665,"empiricalMass":0.095,"logScore":2.353878387381596},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":1.6446000000000005,"mean":10.66,"median":9,"bias":3.66,"maeMean":3.66,"maeMedian":2,"low":2,"high":27,"coverage":true,"width":25,"pitLower":0.31,"pitUpper":0.415,"empiricalMass":0.105,"logScore":2.2537949288246137},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":1.9616,"mean":10.47,"median":10,"bias":3.4700000000000006,"maeMean":3.4700000000000006,"maeMedian":3,"low":6,"high":17,"coverage":true,"width":11,"pitLower":0.1,"pitUpper":0.185,"empiricalMass":0.085,"logScore":2.4651040224918206},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.7518750000000001,"mean":7.355,"median":7,"bias":0.3550000000000004,"maeMean":0.3550000000000004,"maeMedian":0,"low":3,"high":12,"coverage":true,"width":9,"pitLower":0.445,"pitUpper":0.535,"empiricalMass":0.09,"logScore":2.4079456086518722},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":1.274575,"mean":7.025,"median":6,"bias":0.025000000000000355,"maeMean":0.025000000000000355,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":18,"coverage":true,"width":18,"pitLower":0.535,"pitUpper":0.615,"empiricalMass":0.08,"logScore":2.5257286443082556}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.005,"1":0.015,"2":0.04,"3":0.09,"4":0.06,"5":0.08,"6":0.055,"7":0.07,"8":0.08,"9":0.07,"10":0.075,"11":0.05,"12":0.055,"13":0.05,"14":0.035,"15":0.01,"16":0.015,"17":0.015,"18":0.015,"19":0.01,"20":0.005,"21":0.005,"22":0.015,"23":0.01,"24":0.005,"25":0.01,"26":0.015,"28":0.01,"30":0.01,"34":0.005,"39":0.005,"43":0.005,"80":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"1":0.015,"2":0.055,"3":0.095,"4":0.12,"5":0.175,"6":0.11,"7":0.095,"8":0.11,"9":0.08,"10":0.055,"11":0.03,"12":0.015,"13":0.01,"14":0.005,"15":0.005,"16":0.005,"17":0.005,"18":0.01,"19":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"1":0.03,"2":0.02,"3":0.065,"4":0.045,"5":0.085,"6":0.065,"7":0.105,"8":0.075,"9":0.03,"10":0.06,"11":0.065,"12":0.07,"13":0.055,"14":0.01,"15":0.06,"16":0.01,"17":0.02,"18":0.01,"19":0.025,"20":0.02,"21":0.01,"24":0.005,"27":0.01,"29":0.01,"30":0.005,"31":0.01,"33":0.005,"35":0.005,"37":0.005,"43":0.005,"48":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"4":0.02,"5":0.02,"6":0.06,"7":0.085,"8":0.115,"9":0.115,"10":0.11,"11":0.115,"12":0.135,"13":0.065,"14":0.06,"15":0.02,"16":0.02,"17":0.025,"18":0.02,"20":0.01,"21":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"1":0.005,"2":0.015,"3":0.03,"4":0.105,"5":0.16,"6":0.13,"7":0.09,"8":0.11,"9":0.125,"10":0.07,"11":0.09,"12":0.03,"13":0.02,"14":0.015,"15":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.055,"1":0.08,"2":0.08,"3":0.085,"4":0.085,"5":0.08,"6":0.07,"7":0.08,"8":0.075,"9":0.04,"10":0.05,"11":0.05,"12":0.02,"13":0.035,"14":0.01,"15":0.015,"16":0.005,"17":0.01,"18":0.03,"19":0.015,"21":0.015,"22":0.005,"23":0.005,"25":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1735516800000,"validUntil":1736121600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":3,"actual":3,"trainingCount":5912,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2024","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":1.4323499999999998,"mean":1.28,"median":1,"bias":-1.72,"maeMean":1.72,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.85,"pitUpper":0.905,"empiricalMass":0.055,"logScore":2.900422093749666},"rollingETAS":{"crps":1.760675,"mean":0.795,"median":1,"bias":-2.205,"maeMean":2.205,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.945,"pitUpper":0.98,"empiricalMass":0.035,"logScore":3.3524072174927233},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":1.2959,"mean":1.39,"median":1,"bias":-1.61,"maeMean":1.61,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.835,"pitUpper":0.91,"empiricalMass":0.075,"logScore":2.5902671654458267},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":1.14825,"mean":1.37,"median":1,"bias":-1.63,"maeMean":1.63,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.865,"pitUpper":0.97,"empiricalMass":0.105,"logScore":2.2537949288246137},"recentPoisson":{"crps":1.42,"mean":1.08,"median":1,"bias":-1.92,"maeMean":1.92,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.91,"pitUpper":0.99,"empiricalMass":0.08,"logScore":2.5257286443082556},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":1.39675,"mean":1.12,"median":1,"bias":-1.88,"maeMean":1.88,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.85,"pitUpper":0.95,"empiricalMass":0.1,"logScore":2.3025850929940455}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.445,"1":0.26,"2":0.145,"3":0.055,"4":0.035,"5":0.025,"6":0.015,"7":0.01,"11":0.005,"17":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.485,"1":0.31,"2":0.15,"3":0.035,"4":0.02},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.385,"1":0.275,"2":0.175,"3":0.075,"4":0.03,"5":0.02,"6":0.015,"7":0.005,"9":0.01,"10":0.005,"11":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.225,"1":0.365,"2":0.275,"3":0.105,"4":0.01,"5":0.02},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.34,"1":0.35,"2":0.22,"3":0.08,"5":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.4,"1":0.315,"2":0.135,"3":0.1,"4":0.03,"5":0.01,"6":0.005,"7":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1735516800000,"validUntil":1736121600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5912,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2024","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.011475000000000013,"mean":0.135,"median":0,"bias":0.135,"maeMean":0.135,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.895,"empiricalMass":0.895,"logScore":0.11093156070728166},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.005650000000000002,"mean":0.08,"median":0,"bias":0.08,"maeMean":0.08,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.925,"empiricalMass":0.925,"logScore":0.0779615414697118},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.009425000000000003,"mean":0.115,"median":0,"bias":0.115,"maeMean":0.115,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.905,"empiricalMass":0.905,"logScore":0.0998203352822109},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.010149999999999992,"mean":0.12,"median":0,"bias":0.12,"maeMean":0.12,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.9,"empiricalMass":0.9,"logScore":0.10536051565782628},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.024650000000000005,"mean":0.18,"median":0,"bias":0.18,"maeMean":0.18,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.845,"empiricalMass":0.845,"logScore":0.16841865162496325},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.033324999999999994,"mean":0.215,"median":0,"bias":0.215,"maeMean":0.215,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.82,"empiricalMass":0.82,"logScore":0.19845093872383832}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.895,"1":0.085,"2":0.015,"4":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.925,"1":0.07,"2":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.905,"1":0.075,"2":0.02},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.9,"1":0.09,"2":0.005,"4":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.845,"1":0.13,"2":0.025},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.82,"1":0.15,"2":0.025,"3":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1735516800000,"validUntil":1738108800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":2,"actual":20,"trainingCount":5912,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2024","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":20.122225,"mean":52.285,"median":49,"bias":32.285,"maeMean":32.285,"maeMedian":29,"low":22,"high":93,"coverage":false,"width":71,"pitLower":0.025,"pitUpper":0.04,"empiricalMass":0.015,"logScore":4.199705077879927},"rollingETAS":{"crps":4.036675,"mean":27.555,"median":27,"bias":7.555,"maeMean":7.555,"maeMedian":7,"low":16,"high":42,"coverage":true,"width":26,"pitLower":0.145,"pitUpper":0.185,"empiricalMass":0.04,"logScore":3.2188758248682006},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":20.697975,"mean":54.645,"median":49,"bias":34.645,"maeMean":34.645,"maeMedian":29,"low":24,"high":99,"coverage":false,"width":75,"pitLower":0.02,"pitUpper":0.02,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":19.833625,"mean":43.695,"median":44,"bias":23.695,"maeMean":23.695,"maeMedian":24,"low":31,"high":55,"coverage":false,"width":24,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentPoisson":{"crps":8.00295,"mean":31.03,"median":31,"bias":11.030000000000001,"maeMean":11.030000000000001,"maeMedian":11,"low":22,"high":41,"coverage":false,"width":19,"pitLower":0.02,"pitUpper":0.02,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":6.014975,"mean":31.065,"median":29,"bias":11.065000000000001,"maeMean":11.065000000000001,"maeMedian":9,"low":8,"high":58,"coverage":true,"width":50,"pitLower":0.245,"pitUpper":0.27,"empiricalMass":0.025,"logScore":3.6888794541139363}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"14":0.005,"15":0.005,"16":0.005,"17":0.005,"18":0.005,"20":0.015,"22":0.02,"24":0.01,"25":0.01,"26":0.005,"27":0.005,"28":0.015,"29":0.01,"30":0.03,"31":0.01,"32":0.025,"33":0.02,"34":0.015,"35":0.01,"36":0.015,"37":0.025,"38":0.02,"39":0.03,"40":0.03,"41":0.045,"42":0.01,"43":0.035,"44":0.01,"45":0.005,"46":0.01,"47":0.01,"48":0.025,"49":0.02,"50":0.005,"51":0.03,"52":0.035,"53":0.02,"54":0.015,"55":0.02,"56":0.015,"57":0.01,"58":0.015,"59":0.035,"60":0.015,"61":0.01,"62":0.02,"63":0.015,"64":0.005,"65":0.015,"67":0.01,"70":0.01,"71":0.005,"72":0.005,"73":0.01,"74":0.005,"75":0.01,"77":0.005,"78":0.005,"79":0.005,"80":0.01,"81":0.01,"82":0.01,"83":0.01,"84":0.01,"85":0.005,"86":0.01,"89":0.005,"90":0.01,"93":0.005,"96":0.005,"102":0.01,"103":0.005,"104":0.005,"113":0.005,"120":0.01,"146":0.005,"155":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"8":0.005,"12":0.005,"13":0.015,"14":0.01,"15":0.005,"16":0.015,"17":0.035,"18":0.03,"19":0.025,"20":0.04,"21":0.04,"22":0.075,"23":0.045,"24":0.05,"25":0.055,"26":0.04,"27":0.055,"28":0.065,"29":0.025,"30":0.05,"31":0.035,"32":0.045,"33":0.035,"34":0.02,"35":0.04,"36":0.01,"37":0.04,"38":0.005,"39":0.015,"40":0.005,"41":0.005,"42":0.015,"44":0.005,"45":0.005,"46":0.005,"47":0.005,"51":0.01,"57":0.01,"65":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"14":0.005,"16":0.005,"18":0.005,"19":0.005,"21":0.005,"22":0.01,"23":0.005,"24":0.01,"25":0.015,"26":0.025,"27":0.01,"28":0.025,"29":0.02,"30":0.01,"31":0.025,"32":0.015,"33":0.025,"34":0.025,"35":0.01,"36":0.015,"37":0.02,"38":0.015,"39":0.01,"40":0.015,"41":0.02,"42":0.025,"43":0.03,"44":0.015,"45":0.01,"46":0.01,"47":0.01,"48":0.04,"49":0.02,"50":0.015,"51":0.005,"52":0.01,"53":0.035,"54":0.005,"55":0.01,"56":0.03,"57":0.025,"58":0.01,"59":0.03,"60":0.005,"61":0.005,"62":0.015,"63":0.005,"64":0.015,"65":0.01,"66":0.01,"68":0.015,"69":0.01,"70":0.01,"71":0.005,"72":0.02,"73":0.015,"74":0.01,"76":0.02,"77":0.005,"78":0.01,"79":0.015,"80":0.005,"81":0.005,"83":0.01,"86":0.005,"87":0.01,"89":0.005,"90":0.01,"93":0.005,"96":0.005,"99":0.005,"100":0.005,"106":0.005,"126":0.005,"131":0.005,"141":0.005,"146":0.005,"151":0.005,"160":0.005,"173":0.005,"192":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"22":0.005,"25":0.005,"28":0.005,"29":0.005,"30":0.02,"31":0.01,"32":0.015,"33":0.005,"34":0.01,"35":0.025,"36":0.015,"37":0.07,"38":0.035,"39":0.04,"40":0.05,"41":0.055,"42":0.045,"43":0.07,"44":0.055,"45":0.055,"46":0.04,"47":0.085,"48":0.055,"49":0.04,"50":0.02,"51":0.035,"52":0.045,"53":0.005,"54":0.025,"55":0.01,"56":0.01,"57":0.01,"58":0.015,"61":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"16":0.005,"17":0.005,"18":0.005,"19":0.005,"21":0.02,"22":0.025,"23":0.02,"24":0.02,"25":0.05,"26":0.055,"27":0.045,"28":0.07,"29":0.08,"30":0.06,"31":0.07,"32":0.08,"33":0.08,"34":0.055,"35":0.035,"36":0.065,"37":0.04,"38":0.03,"39":0.015,"40":0.01,"41":0.015,"43":0.01,"44":0.02,"45":0.005,"47":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"2":0.005,"3":0.005,"5":0.015,"6":0.005,"7":0.01,"8":0.015,"9":0.015,"10":0.005,"11":0.03,"12":0.015,"13":0.01,"14":0.02,"15":0.005,"16":0.03,"17":0.02,"18":0.03,"19":0.01,"20":0.025,"21":0.03,"22":0.015,"23":0.035,"24":0.01,"25":0.025,"26":0.015,"27":0.03,"28":0.04,"29":0.04,"30":0.015,"31":0.04,"32":0.025,"33":0.03,"34":0.015,"35":0.015,"36":0.02,"37":0.02,"38":0.025,"39":0.01,"40":0.02,"41":0.005,"42":0.02,"43":0.015,"44":0.005,"45":0.01,"46":0.03,"47":0.025,"48":0.015,"49":0.01,"50":0.015,"51":0.005,"53":0.01,"54":0.01,"55":0.01,"56":0.01,"57":0.005,"58":0.005,"59":0.005,"61":0.005,"62":0.005,"63":0.01,"69":0.005,"72":0.005,"76":0.005,"78":0.01}}},{"issuedAt":1735516800000,"validUntil":1738108800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":3,"actual":5,"trainingCount":5912,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2024","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.9669249999999998,"mean":6.315,"median":6,"bias":1.3150000000000004,"maeMean":1.3150000000000004,"maeMedian":1,"low":1,"high":14,"coverage":true,"width":13,"pitLower":0.385,"pitUpper":0.465,"empiricalMass":0.08,"logScore":2.5257286443082556},"rollingETAS":{"crps":1.1666500000000002,"mean":3.38,"median":3,"bias":-1.62,"maeMean":1.62,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":8,"coverage":true,"width":8,"pitLower":0.74,"pitUpper":0.85,"empiricalMass":0.11,"logScore":2.2072749131897207},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.9886000000000004,"mean":6.75,"median":6,"bias":1.75,"maeMean":1.75,"maeMedian":1,"low":1,"high":15,"coverage":true,"width":14,"pitLower":0.39,"pitUpper":0.47,"empiricalMass":0.08,"logScore":2.5257286443082556},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.6506750000000001,"mean":5.905,"median":6,"bias":0.9050000000000002,"maeMean":0.9050000000000002,"maeMedian":1,"low":2,"high":10,"coverage":true,"width":8,"pitLower":0.27,"pitUpper":0.44,"empiricalMass":0.17,"logScore":1.7719568419318752},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.584875,"mean":4.585,"median":4.5,"bias":-0.41500000000000004,"maeMean":0.41500000000000004,"maeMedian":0.5,"low":1,"high":8,"coverage":true,"width":7,"pitLower":0.5,"pitUpper":0.65,"empiricalMass":0.15,"logScore":1.8971199848858813},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.9647000000000001,"mean":4.57,"median":4,"bias":-0.4299999999999997,"maeMean":0.4299999999999997,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":11,"coverage":true,"width":11,"pitLower":0.565,"pitUpper":0.66,"empiricalMass":0.095,"logScore":2.353878387381596}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.035,"1":0.06,"2":0.085,"3":0.115,"4":0.09,"5":0.08,"6":0.13,"7":0.11,"8":0.055,"9":0.045,"10":0.03,"11":0.05,"12":0.04,"13":0.015,"14":0.01,"15":0.01,"16":0.005,"17":0.02,"21":0.005,"22":0.005,"27":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.06,"1":0.135,"2":0.23,"3":0.17,"4":0.145,"5":0.11,"6":0.025,"7":0.07,"8":0.025,"9":0.005,"10":0.015,"11":0.01},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.02,"1":0.075,"2":0.035,"3":0.105,"4":0.155,"5":0.08,"6":0.09,"7":0.125,"8":0.065,"9":0.035,"10":0.045,"11":0.055,"12":0.02,"13":0.01,"14":0.025,"15":0.01,"16":0.01,"17":0.005,"21":0.015,"23":0.005,"24":0.005,"28":0.005,"32":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.005,"1":0.015,"2":0.045,"3":0.085,"4":0.12,"5":0.17,"6":0.15,"7":0.18,"8":0.125,"9":0.04,"10":0.04,"11":0.015,"12":0.005,"14":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.02,"1":0.06,"2":0.135,"3":0.11,"4":0.175,"5":0.15,"6":0.145,"7":0.11,"8":0.05,"9":0.02,"10":0.02,"11":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.1,"1":0.1,"2":0.15,"3":0.105,"4":0.11,"5":0.095,"6":0.065,"7":0.08,"8":0.065,"9":0.025,"10":0.03,"11":0.03,"12":0.02,"13":0.01,"14":0.005,"16":0.005,"19":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1735516800000,"validUntil":1738108800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":4,"actual":1,"trainingCount":5912,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2024","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.39709999999999995,"mean":0.64,"median":0,"bias":-0.36,"maeMean":0.36,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.605,"pitUpper":0.835,"empiricalMass":0.23,"logScore":1.4696759700589417},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.5497500000000001,"mean":0.32,"median":0,"bias":-0.6799999999999999,"maeMean":0.6799999999999999,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0.74,"pitUpper":0.955,"empiricalMass":0.215,"logScore":1.5371172508544744},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.323975,"mean":0.785,"median":0,"bias":-0.21499999999999997,"maeMean":0.21499999999999997,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.525,"pitUpper":0.8,"empiricalMass":0.275,"logScore":1.2909841813155656},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.293175,"mean":0.735,"median":0,"bias":-0.265,"maeMean":0.265,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.505,"pitUpper":0.81,"empiricalMass":0.305,"logScore":1.1874435023747254},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.28267499999999995,"mean":0.685,"median":0,"bias":-0.31499999999999995,"maeMean":0.31499999999999995,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.505,"pitUpper":0.835,"empiricalMass":0.33,"logScore":1.1086626245216111},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.3728,"mean":0.71,"median":0,"bias":-0.29000000000000004,"maeMean":0.29000000000000004,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.58,"pitUpper":0.825,"empiricalMass":0.245,"logScore":1.40649706843741}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.605,"1":0.23,"2":0.105,"3":0.045,"4":0.01,"5":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.74,"1":0.215,"2":0.035,"3":0.005,"4":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.525,"1":0.275,"2":0.11,"3":0.075,"4":0.01,"5":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.505,"1":0.305,"2":0.145,"3":0.04,"4":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.505,"1":0.33,"2":0.145,"3":0.015,"4":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.58,"1":0.245,"2":0.105,"3":0.045,"4":0.01,"5":0.01,"6":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1738108800000,"validUntil":1738195200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":2,"actual":1,"trainingCount":5932,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2025","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.36585,"mean":1.74,"median":1,"bias":0.74,"maeMean":0.74,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":6,"coverage":true,"width":6,"pitLower":0.35,"pitUpper":0.62,"empiricalMass":0.27,"logScore":1.3093333199837622},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.29727500000000007,"mean":0.975,"median":1,"bias":-0.025000000000000022,"maeMean":0.025000000000000022,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.465,"pitUpper":0.74,"empiricalMass":0.275,"logScore":1.2909841813155656},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.3455250000000001,"mean":1.595,"median":1,"bias":0.595,"maeMean":0.595,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.325,"pitUpper":0.595,"empiricalMass":0.27,"logScore":1.3093333199837622},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.29184999999999994,"mean":1.44,"median":1,"bias":0.43999999999999995,"maeMean":0.43999999999999995,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.265,"pitUpper":0.57,"empiricalMass":0.305,"logScore":1.1874435023747254},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.23350000000000004,"mean":1.01,"median":1,"bias":0.010000000000000009,"maeMean":0.010000000000000009,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.375,"pitUpper":0.705,"empiricalMass":0.33,"logScore":1.1086626245216111},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.301025,"mean":1.105,"median":1,"bias":0.10499999999999998,"maeMean":0.10499999999999998,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.44,"pitUpper":0.71,"empiricalMass":0.27,"logScore":1.3093333199837622}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.35,"1":0.27,"2":0.125,"3":0.11,"4":0.07,"5":0.02,"6":0.015,"7":0.01,"8":0.005,"9":0.005,"10":0.005,"12":0.005,"14":0.005,"17":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.465,"1":0.275,"2":0.16,"3":0.045,"4":0.035,"5":0.015,"6":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.325,"1":0.27,"2":0.19,"3":0.07,"4":0.065,"5":0.045,"6":0.005,"7":0.02,"8":0.01},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.265,"1":0.305,"2":0.25,"3":0.12,"4":0.035,"5":0.015,"6":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.375,"1":0.33,"2":0.22,"3":0.06,"4":0.015},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.44,"1":0.27,"2":0.15,"3":0.09,"4":0.025,"5":0.005,"6":0.01,"8":0.01}}},{"issuedAt":1738108800000,"validUntil":1738195200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":3,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5932,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2025","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.021925,"mean":0.215,"median":0,"bias":0.215,"maeMean":0.215,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.86,"empiricalMass":0.86,"logScore":0.15082288973458366},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.007324999999999998,"mean":0.095,"median":0,"bias":0.095,"maeMean":0.095,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.915,"empiricalMass":0.915,"logScore":0.0888312137066157},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.01604999999999998,"mean":0.15,"median":0,"bias":0.15,"maeMean":0.15,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.875,"empiricalMass":0.875,"logScore":0.13353139262452263},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.027250000000000024,"mean":0.17,"median":0,"bias":0.17,"maeMean":0.17,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.835,"empiricalMass":0.835,"logScore":0.18032355413128162},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.022499999999999992,"mean":0.15,"median":0,"bias":0.15,"maeMean":0.15,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.85,"empiricalMass":0.85,"logScore":0.16251892949777494},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.022625000000000006,"mean":0.165,"median":0,"bias":0.165,"maeMean":0.165,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.85,"empiricalMass":0.85,"logScore":0.16251892949777494}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.86,"1":0.1,"2":0.015,"3":0.015,"4":0.01},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.915,"1":0.075,"2":0.01},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.875,"1":0.105,"2":0.015,"3":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.835,"1":0.16,"2":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.85,"1":0.15},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.85,"1":0.14,"2":0.005,"3":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1738108800000,"validUntil":1738195200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5932,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2025","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.00042500000000000177,"mean":0.025,"median":0,"bias":0.025,"maeMean":0.025,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.98,"empiricalMass":0.98,"logScore":0.020202707317519466},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.0002249999999999995,"mean":0.015,"median":0,"bias":0.015,"maeMean":0.015,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.985,"empiricalMass":0.985,"logScore":0.015113637810048184},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.00002499999999999985,"mean":0.005,"median":0,"bias":0.005,"maeMean":0.005,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.995,"empiricalMass":0.995,"logScore":0.005012541823544286},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.000899999999999998,"mean":0.03,"median":0,"bias":0.03,"maeMean":0.03,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.97,"empiricalMass":0.97,"logScore":0.030459207484708574},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.00040000000000000105,"mean":0.02,"median":0,"bias":0.02,"maeMean":0.02,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.98,"empiricalMass":0.98,"logScore":0.020202707317519466},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.0025000000000000022,"mean":0.05,"median":0,"bias":0.05,"maeMean":0.05,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.95,"empiricalMass":0.95,"logScore":0.05129329438755058}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.98,"1":0.015,"2":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.985,"1":0.015},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.995,"1":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.97,"1":0.03},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.98,"1":0.02},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.95,"1":0.05}}},{"issuedAt":1738108800000,"validUntil":1738713600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":2,"actual":4,"trainingCount":5932,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2025","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":3.7836499999999997,"mean":12.18,"median":10,"bias":8.18,"maeMean":8.18,"maeMedian":6,"low":3,"high":28,"coverage":true,"width":25,"pitLower":0.075,"pitUpper":0.11,"empiricalMass":0.035,"logScore":3.3524072174927233},"rollingETAS":{"crps":1.5596750000000001,"mean":7.145,"median":7,"bias":3.1449999999999996,"maeMean":3.1449999999999996,"maeMedian":3,"low":2,"high":15,"coverage":true,"width":13,"pitLower":0.115,"pitUpper":0.255,"empiricalMass":0.14,"logScore":1.9661128563728327},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":3.51185,"mean":11.37,"median":9,"bias":7.369999999999999,"maeMean":7.369999999999999,"maeMedian":5,"low":3,"high":27,"coverage":true,"width":24,"pitLower":0.09,"pitUpper":0.14,"empiricalMass":0.05,"logScore":2.995732273553991},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":4.69225,"mean":10.58,"median":10,"bias":6.58,"maeMean":6.58,"maeMedian":6,"low":5,"high":16,"coverage":false,"width":11,"pitLower":0.005,"pitUpper":0.03,"empiricalMass":0.025,"logScore":3.6888794541139363},"recentPoisson":{"crps":1.7924,"mean":6.95,"median":7,"bias":2.95,"maeMean":2.95,"maeMedian":3,"low":3,"high":11,"coverage":true,"width":8,"pitLower":0.07,"pitUpper":0.145,"empiricalMass":0.075,"logScore":2.5902671654458267},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":1.4670500000000004,"mean":7.2,"median":6,"bias":3.2,"maeMean":3.2,"maeMedian":2,"low":1,"high":16,"coverage":true,"width":15,"pitLower":0.205,"pitUpper":0.32,"empiricalMass":0.115,"logScore":2.162823150618887}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"2":0.04,"3":0.035,"4":0.035,"5":0.105,"6":0.105,"7":0.035,"8":0.085,"9":0.055,"10":0.07,"11":0.04,"12":0.05,"13":0.045,"14":0.025,"15":0.025,"16":0.025,"17":0.03,"18":0.02,"19":0.025,"20":0.02,"21":0.01,"22":0.01,"23":0.015,"24":0.03,"25":0.01,"28":0.01,"30":0.005,"31":0.005,"36":0.005,"41":0.005,"43":0.01,"54":0.005,"64":0.005,"70":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"1":0.01,"2":0.06,"3":0.045,"4":0.14,"5":0.135,"6":0.105,"7":0.11,"8":0.095,"9":0.075,"10":0.05,"11":0.055,"12":0.02,"13":0.04,"14":0.005,"15":0.025,"16":0.025,"20":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"1":0.01,"2":0.03,"3":0.05,"4":0.05,"5":0.09,"6":0.065,"7":0.075,"8":0.075,"9":0.065,"10":0.09,"11":0.065,"12":0.045,"13":0.01,"14":0.02,"15":0.03,"16":0.03,"17":0.02,"18":0.04,"19":0.01,"20":0.01,"21":0.025,"22":0.005,"23":0.01,"24":0.005,"25":0.01,"26":0.005,"27":0.01,"28":0.005,"29":0.01,"31":0.005,"32":0.01,"34":0.005,"47":0.005,"51":0.01},"expandingPoisson":{"3":0.005,"4":0.025,"5":0.02,"6":0.05,"7":0.105,"8":0.085,"9":0.1,"10":0.125,"11":0.095,"12":0.105,"13":0.08,"14":0.095,"15":0.04,"16":0.025,"17":0.02,"18":0.01,"19":0.005,"20":0.005,"22":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"1":0.015,"2":0.02,"3":0.035,"4":0.075,"5":0.125,"6":0.2,"7":0.145,"8":0.145,"9":0.085,"10":0.06,"11":0.055,"12":0.015,"13":0.015,"14":0.005,"15":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.015,"1":0.04,"2":0.065,"3":0.085,"4":0.115,"5":0.115,"6":0.095,"7":0.09,"8":0.065,"9":0.08,"10":0.04,"11":0.04,"12":0.025,"13":0.015,"14":0.035,"15":0.025,"16":0.015,"17":0.005,"18":0.015,"20":0.005,"21":0.005,"23":0.005,"37":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1738108800000,"validUntil":1738713600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":3,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5932,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2025","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.5473750000000001,"mean":1.425,"median":1,"bias":1.425,"maeMean":1.425,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.375,"empiricalMass":0.375,"logScore":0.9808292530117262},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.33057499999999995,"mean":0.855,"median":1,"bias":0.855,"maeMean":0.855,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.47,"empiricalMass":0.47,"logScore":0.7550225842780328},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.4453750000000001,"mean":1.245,"median":1,"bias":1.245,"maeMean":1.245,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.435,"empiricalMass":0.435,"logScore":0.8324092478934529},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.7471000000000001,"mean":1.34,"median":1,"bias":1.34,"maeMean":1.34,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.245,"empiricalMass":0.245,"logScore":1.40649706843741},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.5699999999999998,"mean":1.13,"median":1,"bias":1.13,"maeMean":1.13,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.315,"empiricalMass":0.315,"logScore":1.155182640156504},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.3618,"mean":1,"median":1,"bias":1,"maeMean":1,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.48,"empiricalMass":0.48,"logScore":0.7339691750802004}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.375,"1":0.295,"2":0.15,"3":0.095,"4":0.025,"5":0.01,"6":0.015,"7":0.02,"11":0.015},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.47,"1":0.33,"2":0.105,"3":0.07,"4":0.02,"5":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.435,"1":0.27,"2":0.13,"3":0.075,"4":0.045,"5":0.015,"6":0.01,"7":0.005,"9":0.01,"10":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.245,"1":0.36,"2":0.255,"3":0.105,"4":0.02,"5":0.015},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.315,"1":0.385,"2":0.2,"3":0.075,"4":0.015,"5":0.005,"7":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.48,"1":0.25,"2":0.15,"3":0.06,"4":0.04,"5":0.01,"6":0.01}}},{"issuedAt":1738108800000,"validUntil":1738713600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5932,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2025","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.014474999999999988,"mean":0.155,"median":0,"bias":0.155,"maeMean":0.155,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.885,"empiricalMass":0.885,"logScore":0.12216763397420753},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.009025000000000005,"mean":0.095,"median":0,"bias":0.095,"maeMean":0.095,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.905,"empiricalMass":0.905,"logScore":0.0998203352822109},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.011274999999999993,"mean":0.125,"median":0,"bias":0.125,"maeMean":0.125,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.895,"empiricalMass":0.895,"logScore":0.11093156070728166},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.027450000000000002,"mean":0.18,"median":0,"bias":0.18,"maeMean":0.18,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.835,"empiricalMass":0.835,"logScore":0.18032355413128162},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.010225000000000012,"mean":0.115,"median":0,"bias":0.115,"maeMean":0.115,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.9,"empiricalMass":0.9,"logScore":0.10536051565782628},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.02762500000000001,"mean":0.185,"median":0,"bias":0.185,"maeMean":0.185,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.835,"empiricalMass":0.835,"logScore":0.18032355413128162}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.885,"1":0.08,"2":0.03,"3":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.905,"1":0.095},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.895,"1":0.09,"2":0.01,"3":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.835,"1":0.15,"2":0.015},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.9,"1":0.085,"2":0.015},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.835,"1":0.145,"2":0.02}}},{"issuedAt":1738108800000,"validUntil":1740700800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":2,"actual":19,"trainingCount":5932,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2025","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":21.418925,"mean":53.765,"median":47,"bias":34.765,"maeMean":34.765,"maeMedian":28,"low":27,"high":110,"coverage":false,"width":83,"pitLower":0.01,"pitUpper":0.015,"empiricalMass":0.005,"logScore":5.298317366548036},"rollingETAS":{"crps":6.1261,"mean":29.26,"median":29,"bias":10.260000000000002,"maeMean":10.260000000000002,"maeMedian":10,"low":17,"high":45,"coverage":true,"width":28,"pitLower":0.075,"pitUpper":0.115,"empiricalMass":0.04,"logScore":3.2188758248682006},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":22.3578,"mean":55.82,"median":51,"bias":36.82,"maeMean":36.82,"maeMedian":32,"low":24,"high":107,"coverage":false,"width":83,"pitLower":0.005,"pitUpper":0.01,"empiricalMass":0.005,"logScore":5.298317366548036},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":21.007275,"mean":43.835,"median":44,"bias":24.835,"maeMean":24.835,"maeMedian":25,"low":33,"high":55,"coverage":false,"width":22,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentPoisson":{"crps":9.136075000000002,"mean":31.095,"median":31,"bias":12.094999999999999,"maeMean":12.094999999999999,"maeMedian":12,"low":23,"high":40,"coverage":false,"width":17,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.005,"empiricalMass":0.005,"logScore":5.298317366548036},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":5.772924999999999,"mean":31.065,"median":27,"bias":12.065000000000001,"maeMean":12.065000000000001,"maeMedian":8,"low":9,"high":63,"coverage":true,"width":54,"pitLower":0.26,"pitUpper":0.285,"empiricalMass":0.025,"logScore":3.6888794541139363}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"16":0.005,"18":0.005,"19":0.005,"22":0.015,"23":0.005,"24":0.005,"26":0.005,"27":0.025,"28":0.025,"29":0.015,"30":0.015,"31":0.02,"32":0.01,"33":0.02,"34":0.02,"35":0.025,"36":0.02,"37":0.025,"38":0.025,"39":0.03,"40":0.03,"41":0.035,"42":0.02,"43":0.04,"44":0.01,"45":0.015,"46":0.01,"47":0.025,"48":0.02,"49":0.035,"50":0.025,"51":0.02,"52":0.01,"53":0.02,"54":0.01,"55":0.03,"56":0.02,"57":0.005,"58":0.02,"59":0.015,"60":0.005,"61":0.015,"62":0.005,"64":0.005,"65":0.005,"66":0.005,"68":0.01,"69":0.025,"70":0.005,"71":0.005,"72":0.01,"73":0.005,"74":0.005,"75":0.02,"76":0.01,"78":0.005,"82":0.01,"84":0.005,"87":0.005,"88":0.005,"90":0.005,"91":0.01,"92":0.005,"94":0.005,"100":0.01,"106":0.005,"108":0.005,"110":0.01,"111":0.005,"119":0.005,"125":0.005,"127":0.01,"129":0.005,"143":0.005,"153":0.005,"211":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"14":0.01,"15":0.035,"17":0.02,"18":0.01,"19":0.04,"20":0.03,"21":0.025,"22":0.035,"23":0.05,"24":0.045,"25":0.045,"26":0.055,"27":0.035,"28":0.055,"29":0.055,"30":0.05,"31":0.055,"32":0.045,"33":0.045,"34":0.025,"35":0.045,"36":0.015,"37":0.02,"38":0.025,"39":0.005,"40":0.035,"41":0.02,"42":0.01,"44":0.005,"45":0.005,"46":0.015,"48":0.005,"49":0.005,"51":0.01,"53":0.005,"54":0.01},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"12":0.005,"19":0.005,"20":0.005,"21":0.01,"22":0.005,"23":0.015,"24":0.02,"25":0.02,"26":0.02,"27":0.005,"28":0.01,"29":0.01,"30":0.01,"31":0.015,"32":0.015,"33":0.015,"34":0.015,"35":0.015,"36":0.02,"37":0.02,"38":0.035,"39":0.02,"40":0.03,"41":0.005,"42":0.015,"43":0.015,"44":0.02,"45":0.015,"46":0.025,"47":0.025,"48":0.01,"49":0.015,"50":0.01,"51":0.015,"52":0.03,"53":0.01,"54":0.015,"55":0.025,"56":0.025,"57":0.02,"58":0.02,"59":0.025,"60":0.005,"61":0.035,"63":0.005,"64":0.005,"65":0.01,"66":0.01,"68":0.01,"69":0.005,"70":0.02,"71":0.005,"72":0.015,"73":0.02,"74":0.015,"76":0.005,"78":0.015,"80":0.005,"82":0.01,"84":0.015,"86":0.005,"88":0.005,"90":0.015,"92":0.01,"97":0.01,"102":0.005,"103":0.005,"107":0.005,"112":0.005,"116":0.005,"120":0.005,"121":0.005,"126":0.005,"157":0.005,"160":0.005,"176":0.005,"190":0.005,"192":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"27":0.005,"28":0.005,"29":0.01,"30":0.005,"32":0.015,"33":0.015,"34":0.035,"35":0.03,"36":0.035,"37":0.02,"38":0.04,"39":0.06,"40":0.055,"41":0.035,"42":0.06,"43":0.06,"44":0.035,"45":0.07,"46":0.05,"47":0.055,"48":0.065,"49":0.06,"50":0.03,"51":0.03,"52":0.025,"53":0.015,"54":0.01,"55":0.02,"56":0.005,"57":0.02,"58":0.01,"59":0.005,"60":0.005,"63":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"19":0.005,"20":0.005,"21":0.015,"22":0.015,"23":0.02,"24":0.025,"25":0.055,"26":0.045,"27":0.065,"28":0.105,"29":0.08,"30":0.055,"31":0.055,"32":0.085,"33":0.03,"34":0.09,"35":0.07,"36":0.03,"37":0.02,"38":0.035,"39":0.03,"40":0.02,"41":0.01,"42":0.015,"43":0.005,"45":0.01,"47":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"2":0.005,"3":0.005,"4":0.005,"6":0.005,"7":0.015,"8":0.01,"9":0.015,"10":0.01,"11":0.025,"12":0.01,"13":0.03,"14":0.02,"15":0.03,"16":0.02,"17":0.01,"18":0.045,"19":0.025,"20":0.045,"21":0.02,"22":0.025,"23":0.03,"24":0.03,"25":0.025,"26":0.035,"27":0.015,"28":0.015,"29":0.015,"30":0.025,"31":0.015,"32":0.02,"33":0.025,"34":0.02,"35":0.01,"36":0.02,"37":0.01,"38":0.015,"39":0.02,"40":0.01,"41":0.02,"42":0.015,"43":0.01,"44":0.02,"45":0.005,"46":0.02,"47":0.015,"48":0.005,"49":0.015,"50":0.015,"51":0.02,"52":0.01,"54":0.005,"55":0.005,"56":0.01,"59":0.005,"60":0.005,"61":0.005,"62":0.005,"63":0.01,"64":0.005,"66":0.005,"68":0.005,"71":0.01,"74":0.005,"81":0.005,"85":0.005,"89":0.005,"98":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1738108800000,"validUntil":1740700800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":3,"actual":2,"trainingCount":5932,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2025","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":2.4320999999999997,"mean":6.61,"median":6,"bias":4.61,"maeMean":4.61,"maeMedian":4,"low":1,"high":15,"coverage":true,"width":14,"pitLower":0.07,"pitUpper":0.15,"empiricalMass":0.08,"logScore":2.5257286443082556},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.9582500000000003,"mean":3.9,"median":4,"bias":1.9,"maeMean":1.9,"maeMedian":2,"low":1,"high":8,"coverage":true,"width":7,"pitLower":0.145,"pitUpper":0.305,"empiricalMass":0.16,"logScore":1.8325814637483102},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":2.6059249999999996,"mean":6.995,"median":6,"bias":4.995,"maeMean":4.995,"maeMedian":4,"low":2,"high":15,"coverage":true,"width":13,"pitLower":0.04,"pitUpper":0.15,"empiricalMass":0.11,"logScore":2.2072749131897207},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":2.535975,"mean":5.885,"median":6,"bias":3.885,"maeMean":3.885,"maeMedian":4,"low":2,"high":10,"coverage":true,"width":8,"pitLower":0.015,"pitUpper":0.07,"empiricalMass":0.055,"logScore":2.900422093749666},"recentPoisson":{"crps":1.48115,"mean":4.56,"median":4,"bias":2.5599999999999996,"maeMean":2.5599999999999996,"maeMedian":2,"low":1,"high":9,"coverage":true,"width":8,"pitLower":0.06,"pitUpper":0.155,"empiricalMass":0.095,"logScore":2.353878387381596},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":1.137325,"mean":4.435,"median":4,"bias":2.4349999999999996,"maeMean":2.4349999999999996,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":11,"coverage":true,"width":11,"pitLower":0.225,"pitUpper":0.37,"empiricalMass":0.145,"logScore":1.9310215365615626}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.025,"1":0.045,"2":0.08,"3":0.07,"4":0.13,"5":0.14,"6":0.12,"7":0.06,"8":0.1,"9":0.035,"10":0.04,"11":0.045,"12":0.025,"13":0.015,"14":0.01,"15":0.01,"17":0.01,"18":0.01,"19":0.01,"20":0.005,"26":0.01,"28":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.025,"1":0.12,"2":0.16,"3":0.19,"4":0.155,"5":0.13,"6":0.085,"7":0.055,"8":0.035,"9":0.015,"10":0.02,"11":0.01},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.01,"1":0.03,"2":0.11,"3":0.11,"4":0.105,"5":0.08,"6":0.085,"7":0.05,"8":0.105,"9":0.095,"10":0.045,"11":0.045,"12":0.02,"13":0.035,"14":0.015,"15":0.01,"16":0.01,"17":0.005,"18":0.005,"20":0.005,"21":0.005,"24":0.01,"25":0.005,"27":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"1":0.015,"2":0.055,"3":0.115,"4":0.12,"5":0.175,"6":0.13,"7":0.125,"8":0.115,"9":0.065,"10":0.055,"11":0.015,"12":0.01,"13":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.005,"1":0.055,"2":0.095,"3":0.19,"4":0.185,"5":0.2,"6":0.105,"7":0.075,"8":0.03,"9":0.025,"10":0.015,"11":0.01,"12":0.005,"13":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.07,"1":0.155,"2":0.145,"3":0.11,"4":0.105,"5":0.065,"6":0.09,"7":0.095,"8":0.055,"9":0.035,"10":0.02,"11":0.015,"12":0.005,"13":0.01,"14":0.005,"15":0.005,"16":0.005,"17":0.005,"18":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1738108800000,"validUntil":1740700800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5932,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2025","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.23695,"mean":0.74,"median":0,"bias":0.74,"maeMean":0.74,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.57,"empiricalMass":0.57,"logScore":0.5621189181535413},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.153125,"mean":0.505,"median":0,"bias":0.505,"maeMean":0.505,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.625,"empiricalMass":0.625,"logScore":0.4700036292457356},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.26692499999999997,"mean":0.815,"median":0,"bias":0.815,"maeMean":0.815,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.535,"empiricalMass":0.535,"logScore":0.6254885320861304},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.4079750000000001,"mean":0.915,"median":1,"bias":0.915,"maeMean":0.915,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.41,"empiricalMass":0.41,"logScore":0.8915981192837836},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.28795000000000004,"mean":0.65,"median":1,"bias":0.65,"maeMean":0.65,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.475,"empiricalMass":0.475,"logScore":0.7444404749474959},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.291875,"mean":0.775,"median":1,"bias":0.775,"maeMean":0.775,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.495,"empiricalMass":0.495,"logScore":0.7031975164134467}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.57,"1":0.21,"2":0.165,"3":0.035,"4":0.005,"5":0.015},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.625,"1":0.265,"2":0.09,"3":0.02},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.535,"1":0.26,"2":0.125,"3":0.035,"4":0.03,"5":0.01,"6":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.41,"1":0.355,"2":0.17,"3":0.045,"4":0.015,"5":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.475,"1":0.415,"2":0.095,"3":0.015},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.495,"1":0.32,"2":0.14,"3":0.025,"4":0.01,"6":0.01}}},{"issuedAt":1740700800000,"validUntil":1740787200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":2,"actual":2,"trainingCount":5951,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2025","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.70965,"mean":1.32,"median":1,"bias":-0.6799999999999999,"maeMean":0.6799999999999999,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.725,"pitUpper":0.845,"empiricalMass":0.12,"logScore":2.120263536200091},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.949775,"mean":0.745,"median":0,"bias":-1.255,"maeMean":1.255,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.825,"pitUpper":0.945,"empiricalMass":0.12,"logScore":2.120263536200091},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.673525,"mean":1.195,"median":1,"bias":-0.8049999999999999,"maeMean":0.8049999999999999,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.7,"pitUpper":0.855,"empiricalMass":0.155,"logScore":1.8643301620628905},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.367425,"mean":1.585,"median":1,"bias":-0.41500000000000004,"maeMean":0.41500000000000004,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.52,"pitUpper":0.795,"empiricalMass":0.275,"logScore":1.2909841813155656},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.9213499999999999,"mean":0.77,"median":1,"bias":-1.23,"maeMean":1.23,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.835,"pitUpper":0.945,"empiricalMass":0.11,"logScore":2.2072749131897207},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.899075,"mean":0.775,"median":1,"bias":-1.225,"maeMean":1.225,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.825,"pitUpper":0.955,"empiricalMass":0.13,"logScore":2.0402208285265546}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.38,"1":0.345,"2":0.12,"3":0.06,"4":0.035,"5":0.02,"6":0.015,"7":0.005,"8":0.005,"9":0.005,"10":0.005,"11":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.515,"1":0.31,"2":0.12,"3":0.025,"4":0.03},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.395,"1":0.305,"2":0.155,"3":0.075,"4":0.04,"5":0.01,"6":0.005,"7":0.01,"9":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.22,"1":0.3,"2":0.275,"3":0.13,"4":0.045,"5":0.025,"8":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.47,"1":0.365,"2":0.11,"3":0.045,"5":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.465,"1":0.36,"2":0.13,"3":0.035,"5":0.01}}},{"issuedAt":1740700800000,"validUntil":1740787200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":3,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5951,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2025","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.014974999999999988,"mean":0.185,"median":0,"bias":0.185,"maeMean":0.185,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.885,"empiricalMass":0.885,"logScore":0.12216763397420753},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.006499999999999992,"mean":0.09,"median":0,"bias":0.09,"maeMean":0.09,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.92,"empiricalMass":0.92,"logScore":0.08338160893905101},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.014650000000000024,"mean":0.14,"median":0,"bias":0.14,"maeMean":0.14,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.88,"empiricalMass":0.88,"logScore":0.12783337150988489},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.02425000000000002,"mean":0.17,"median":0,"bias":0.17,"maeMean":0.17,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.845,"empiricalMass":0.845,"logScore":0.16841865162496325},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.0072499999999999926,"mean":0.09,"median":0,"bias":0.09,"maeMean":0.09,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.915,"empiricalMass":0.915,"logScore":0.0888312137066157},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.008324999999999999,"mean":0.105,"median":0,"bias":0.105,"maeMean":0.105,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.91,"empiricalMass":0.91,"logScore":0.09431067947124129}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.885,"1":0.08,"2":0.015,"3":0.01,"4":0.005,"5":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.92,"1":0.07,"2":0.01},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.88,"1":0.105,"2":0.01,"3":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.845,"1":0.14,"2":0.015},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.915,"1":0.08,"2":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.91,"1":0.075,"2":0.015}}},{"issuedAt":1740700800000,"validUntil":1740787200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5951,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2025","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.0006499999999999978,"mean":0.03,"median":0,"bias":0.03,"maeMean":0.03,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.975,"empiricalMass":0.975,"logScore":0.025317807984289897},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.00040000000000000105,"mean":0.02,"median":0,"bias":0.02,"maeMean":0.02,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.98,"empiricalMass":0.98,"logScore":0.020202707317519466},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.0000999999999999994,"mean":0.01,"median":0,"bias":0.01,"maeMean":0.01,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.99,"empiricalMass":0.99,"logScore":0.01005033585350145},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.0006499999999999978,"mean":0.03,"median":0,"bias":0.03,"maeMean":0.03,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.975,"empiricalMass":0.975,"logScore":0.025317807984289897},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.00040000000000000105,"mean":0.02,"median":0,"bias":0.02,"maeMean":0.02,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.98,"empiricalMass":0.98,"logScore":0.020202707317519466},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.0002249999999999995,"mean":0.015,"median":0,"bias":0.015,"maeMean":0.015,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.985,"empiricalMass":0.985,"logScore":0.015113637810048184}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.975,"1":0.02,"2":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.98,"1":0.02},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.99,"1":0.01},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.975,"1":0.02,"2":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.98,"1":0.02},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.985,"1":0.015}}},{"issuedAt":1740700800000,"validUntil":1741305600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":2,"actual":3,"trainingCount":5951,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2025","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":3.975974999999999,"mean":10.965,"median":9,"bias":7.965,"maeMean":7.965,"maeMedian":6,"low":3,"high":30,"coverage":true,"width":27,"pitLower":0.04,"pitUpper":0.09,"empiricalMass":0.05,"logScore":2.995732273553991},"rollingETAS":{"crps":2.042275,"mean":6.735,"median":6.5,"bias":3.7350000000000003,"maeMean":3.7350000000000003,"maeMedian":3.5,"low":2,"high":13,"coverage":true,"width":11,"pitLower":0.11,"pitUpper":0.205,"empiricalMass":0.095,"logScore":2.353878387381596},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":3.98695,"mean":10.91,"median":8,"bias":7.91,"maeMean":7.91,"maeMedian":5,"low":3,"high":27,"coverage":true,"width":24,"pitLower":0.03,"pitUpper":0.08,"empiricalMass":0.05,"logScore":2.995732273553991},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":5.713425,"mean":10.515,"median":10,"bias":7.515000000000001,"maeMean":7.515000000000001,"maeMedian":7,"low":6,"high":16,"coverage":false,"width":10,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentPoisson":{"crps":1.8199250000000002,"mean":6.025,"median":6,"bias":3.0250000000000004,"maeMean":3.0250000000000004,"maeMedian":3,"low":3,"high":10,"coverage":true,"width":7,"pitLower":0.035,"pitUpper":0.12,"empiricalMass":0.085,"logScore":2.4651040224918206},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":1.907525,"mean":6.345,"median":6,"bias":3.3449999999999998,"maeMean":3.3449999999999998,"maeMedian":3,"low":2,"high":12,"coverage":true,"width":10,"pitLower":0.085,"pitUpper":0.16,"empiricalMass":0.075,"logScore":2.5902671654458267}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.005,"1":0.005,"2":0.03,"3":0.05,"4":0.09,"5":0.08,"6":0.065,"7":0.085,"8":0.06,"9":0.1,"10":0.055,"11":0.035,"12":0.04,"13":0.025,"14":0.045,"15":0.035,"16":0.03,"17":0.01,"18":0.015,"19":0.025,"20":0.015,"21":0.01,"22":0.01,"23":0.005,"24":0.005,"25":0.015,"30":0.005,"31":0.01,"32":0.005,"34":0.01,"37":0.005,"38":0.005,"40":0.005,"41":0.005,"51":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.005,"1":0.03,"2":0.075,"3":0.095,"4":0.085,"5":0.125,"6":0.085,"7":0.105,"8":0.12,"9":0.08,"10":0.075,"11":0.03,"12":0.025,"13":0.025,"14":0.005,"15":0.005,"16":0.015,"17":0.005,"18":0.005,"23":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.005,"1":0.01,"2":0.015,"3":0.05,"4":0.075,"5":0.075,"6":0.095,"7":0.085,"8":0.095,"9":0.05,"10":0.06,"11":0.045,"12":0.07,"13":0.045,"14":0.015,"15":0.03,"16":0.035,"17":0.01,"18":0.015,"19":0.01,"20":0.02,"21":0.005,"23":0.005,"24":0.005,"25":0.01,"26":0.01,"27":0.005,"29":0.005,"30":0.01,"32":0.015,"35":0.005,"48":0.005,"52":0.005,"63":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"4":0.01,"5":0.035,"6":0.04,"7":0.115,"8":0.11,"9":0.08,"10":0.125,"11":0.11,"12":0.115,"13":0.085,"14":0.06,"15":0.035,"16":0.035,"17":0.035,"18":0.005,"20":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"1":0.01,"2":0.025,"3":0.085,"4":0.155,"5":0.195,"6":0.16,"7":0.11,"8":0.11,"9":0.055,"10":0.06,"11":0.015,"12":0.015,"13":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.005,"1":0.025,"2":0.055,"3":0.075,"4":0.115,"5":0.14,"6":0.18,"7":0.12,"8":0.065,"9":0.085,"10":0.05,"11":0.03,"12":0.015,"14":0.02,"15":0.01,"16":0.005,"20":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1740700800000,"validUntil":1741305600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":3,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5951,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2025","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.4532250000000001,"mean":1.225,"median":1,"bias":1.225,"maeMean":1.225,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.415,"empiricalMass":0.415,"logScore":0.8794767587514388},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.3032499999999999,"mean":0.82,"median":0,"bias":0.82,"maeMean":0.82,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.505,"empiricalMass":0.505,"logScore":0.6831968497067772},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.5438500000000001,"mean":1.37,"median":1,"bias":1.37,"maeMean":1.37,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.39,"empiricalMass":0.39,"logScore":0.941608539858445},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.8946250000000001,"mean":1.475,"median":1,"bias":1.475,"maeMean":1.475,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.175,"empiricalMass":0.175,"logScore":1.742969305058623},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.43130000000000007,"mean":0.93,"median":1,"bias":0.93,"maeMean":0.93,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.4,"empiricalMass":0.4,"logScore":0.916290731874155},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.507875,"mean":1.055,"median":1,"bias":1.055,"maeMean":1.055,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.345,"empiricalMass":0.345,"logScore":1.0642108619507773}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.415,"1":0.305,"2":0.135,"3":0.07,"4":0.015,"5":0.02,"6":0.015,"7":0.015,"8":0.005,"9":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.505,"1":0.265,"2":0.16,"3":0.05,"4":0.015,"5":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.39,"1":0.24,"2":0.215,"3":0.08,"4":0.025,"5":0.01,"6":0.015,"7":0.01,"8":0.005,"10":0.005,"12":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.175,"1":0.39,"2":0.285,"3":0.105,"4":0.03,"5":0.01,"6":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.4,"1":0.34,"2":0.2,"3":0.05,"4":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.345,"1":0.395,"2":0.16,"3":0.065,"4":0.03,"5":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1740700800000,"validUntil":1741305600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5951,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2025","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.014800000000000008,"mean":0.14,"median":0,"bias":0.14,"maeMean":0.14,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.88,"empiricalMass":0.88,"logScore":0.12783337150988489},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.010225000000000012,"mean":0.115,"median":0,"bias":0.115,"maeMean":0.115,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.9,"empiricalMass":0.9,"logScore":0.10536051565782628},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.013974999999999987,"mean":0.155,"median":0,"bias":0.155,"maeMean":0.155,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.885,"empiricalMass":0.885,"logScore":0.12216763397420753},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.038275,"mean":0.215,"median":0,"bias":0.215,"maeMean":0.215,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.805,"empiricalMass":0.805,"logScore":0.21691300156357363},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.01565000000000001,"mean":0.13,"median":0,"bias":0.13,"maeMean":0.13,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.875,"empiricalMass":0.875,"logScore":0.13353139262452263},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.01565000000000001,"mean":0.13,"median":0,"bias":0.13,"maeMean":0.13,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.875,"empiricalMass":0.875,"logScore":0.13353139262452263}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.88,"1":0.1,"2":0.02},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.9,"1":0.085,"2":0.015},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.885,"1":0.09,"2":0.015,"3":0.005,"4":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.805,"1":0.18,"2":0.01,"3":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.875,"1":0.12,"2":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.875,"1":0.12,"2":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1740700800000,"validUntil":1743292800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":2,"actual":26,"trainingCount":5951,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2025","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":11.441949999999999,"mean":48.51,"median":43.5,"bias":22.509999999999998,"maeMean":22.509999999999998,"maeMedian":17.5,"low":22,"high":95,"coverage":true,"width":73,"pitLower":0.11,"pitUpper":0.12,"empiricalMass":0.01,"logScore":4.605170185988091},"rollingETAS":{"crps":2.259125,"mean":29.535,"median":29,"bias":3.535,"maeMean":3.535,"maeMedian":3,"low":17,"high":43,"coverage":true,"width":26,"pitLower":0.305,"pitUpper":0.35,"empiricalMass":0.045,"logScore":3.101092789211817},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":14.366725,"mean":54.395,"median":47,"bias":28.395000000000003,"maeMean":28.395000000000003,"maeMedian":21,"low":24,"high":102,"coverage":true,"width":78,"pitLower":0.06,"pitUpper":0.095,"empiricalMass":0.035,"logScore":3.3524072174927233},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":13.831074999999998,"mean":43.735,"median":44,"bias":17.735,"maeMean":17.735,"maeMedian":18,"low":33,"high":54,"coverage":false,"width":21,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentPoisson":{"crps":1.330375,"mean":26.145,"median":26,"bias":0.14499999999999957,"maeMean":0.14499999999999957,"maeMedian":0,"low":18,"high":36,"coverage":true,"width":18,"pitLower":0.485,"pitUpper":0.52,"empiricalMass":0.035,"logScore":3.3524072174927233},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":2.185925,"mean":25.505,"median":25,"bias":-0.495000000000001,"maeMean":0.495000000000001,"maeMedian":1,"low":12,"high":42,"coverage":true,"width":30,"pitLower":0.525,"pitUpper":0.565,"empiricalMass":0.04,"logScore":3.2188758248682006}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"10":0.01,"16":0.015,"19":0.005,"20":0.005,"21":0.01,"22":0.02,"23":0.01,"24":0.025,"25":0.01,"26":0.01,"27":0.005,"28":0.03,"29":0.045,"30":0.02,"31":0.01,"32":0.035,"33":0.025,"34":0.025,"35":0.025,"36":0.01,"37":0.01,"38":0.02,"39":0.015,"40":0.03,"41":0.01,"42":0.05,"43":0.015,"44":0.015,"45":0.035,"46":0.015,"47":0.01,"48":0.01,"49":0.025,"50":0.005,"51":0.03,"52":0.02,"53":0.01,"54":0.02,"55":0.025,"56":0.015,"57":0.005,"58":0.025,"59":0.015,"60":0.005,"61":0.01,"64":0.01,"65":0.005,"66":0.015,"67":0.02,"68":0.005,"69":0.015,"70":0.005,"71":0.005,"74":0.005,"75":0.01,"76":0.01,"79":0.005,"80":0.01,"82":0.005,"83":0.005,"87":0.005,"88":0.005,"90":0.005,"91":0.005,"95":0.005,"101":0.01,"104":0.01,"107":0.005,"111":0.005,"115":0.005,"122":0.005,"142":0.005,"171":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"11":0.005,"12":0.005,"13":0.005,"15":0.01,"16":0.02,"17":0.015,"18":0.015,"19":0.02,"20":0.035,"21":0.005,"22":0.06,"23":0.035,"24":0.025,"25":0.05,"26":0.045,"27":0.065,"28":0.06,"29":0.05,"30":0.075,"31":0.05,"32":0.04,"33":0.03,"34":0.045,"35":0.02,"36":0.025,"37":0.025,"38":0.02,"39":0.02,"40":0.015,"41":0.025,"42":0.03,"43":0.005,"44":0.005,"45":0.02,"46":0.005,"47":0.005,"52":0.005,"53":0.005,"54":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"12":0.01,"14":0.005,"16":0.005,"21":0.015,"22":0.01,"24":0.01,"25":0.005,"26":0.035,"27":0.015,"28":0.015,"29":0.02,"30":0.03,"31":0.01,"32":0.02,"33":0.01,"34":0.035,"35":0.03,"36":0.025,"37":0.005,"38":0.035,"39":0.015,"40":0.025,"41":0.03,"42":0.015,"43":0.01,"44":0.035,"45":0.005,"46":0.005,"47":0.025,"48":0.02,"49":0.02,"50":0.015,"51":0.025,"52":0.01,"53":0.01,"54":0.01,"56":0.015,"57":0.005,"59":0.01,"60":0.01,"61":0.01,"62":0.025,"63":0.005,"64":0.025,"65":0.015,"66":0.005,"67":0.015,"68":0.01,"70":0.01,"73":0.015,"74":0.005,"76":0.015,"77":0.005,"78":0.01,"79":0.005,"80":0.01,"81":0.01,"83":0.005,"84":0.005,"85":0.01,"87":0.005,"89":0.01,"90":0.01,"93":0.02,"95":0.005,"97":0.005,"98":0.01,"101":0.005,"102":0.01,"110":0.005,"111":0.005,"115":0.005,"125":0.005,"139":0.005,"141":0.005,"154":0.005,"190":0.005,"192":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"27":0.005,"30":0.015,"31":0.015,"32":0.005,"33":0.015,"34":0.025,"35":0.045,"36":0.045,"37":0.05,"38":0.03,"39":0.04,"40":0.04,"41":0.055,"42":0.055,"43":0.045,"44":0.04,"45":0.065,"46":0.05,"47":0.085,"48":0.03,"49":0.05,"50":0.02,"51":0.03,"52":0.045,"53":0.025,"54":0.025,"55":0.005,"57":0.01,"58":0.01,"59":0.015,"61":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"14":0.005,"15":0.005,"16":0.015,"17":0.005,"18":0.03,"19":0.045,"20":0.055,"21":0.045,"22":0.06,"23":0.07,"24":0.075,"25":0.075,"26":0.035,"27":0.065,"28":0.095,"29":0.065,"30":0.06,"31":0.05,"32":0.03,"33":0.03,"34":0.015,"35":0.01,"36":0.025,"37":0.005,"38":0.01,"39":0.01,"40":0.005,"41":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"7":0.005,"10":0.005,"11":0.01,"12":0.035,"13":0.015,"14":0.03,"15":0.03,"16":0.035,"17":0.04,"18":0.03,"19":0.02,"20":0.05,"21":0.055,"22":0.055,"23":0.035,"24":0.035,"25":0.04,"26":0.04,"27":0.05,"28":0.045,"29":0.03,"30":0.035,"31":0.025,"32":0.025,"33":0.055,"34":0.015,"35":0.03,"36":0.015,"37":0.01,"38":0.015,"39":0.01,"40":0.015,"41":0.005,"42":0.01,"43":0.005,"44":0.01,"45":0.02,"47":0.005,"50":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1740700800000,"validUntil":1743292800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":3,"actual":1,"trainingCount":5951,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2025","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":2.619325,"mean":5.915,"median":5,"bias":4.915,"maeMean":4.915,"maeMedian":4,"low":1,"high":15,"coverage":true,"width":14,"pitLower":0.04,"pitUpper":0.125,"empiricalMass":0.085,"logScore":2.4651040224918206},"rollingETAS":{"crps":1.707725,"mean":3.885,"median":4,"bias":2.885,"maeMean":2.885,"maeMedian":3,"low":1,"high":8,"coverage":true,"width":7,"pitLower":0.03,"pitUpper":0.13,"empiricalMass":0.1,"logScore":2.3025850929940455},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":2.8725249999999996,"mean":6.355,"median":5,"bias":5.355,"maeMean":5.355,"maeMedian":4,"low":1,"high":15,"coverage":true,"width":14,"pitLower":0.02,"pitUpper":0.09,"empiricalMass":0.07,"logScore":2.659260036932778},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":3.666175,"mean":5.975,"median":6,"bias":4.975,"maeMean":4.975,"maeMedian":5,"low":2,"high":10,"coverage":false,"width":8,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.01,"empiricalMass":0.01,"logScore":4.605170185988091},"recentPoisson":{"crps":1.4788999999999999,"mean":3.57,"median":3,"bias":2.57,"maeMean":2.57,"maeMedian":2,"low":1,"high":7,"coverage":true,"width":6,"pitLower":0.04,"pitUpper":0.15,"empiricalMass":0.11,"logScore":2.2072749131897207},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":1.3624999999999998,"mean":3.63,"median":3,"bias":2.63,"maeMean":2.63,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":8,"coverage":true,"width":8,"pitLower":0.065,"pitUpper":0.225,"empiricalMass":0.16,"logScore":1.8325814637483102}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.04,"1":0.085,"2":0.12,"3":0.09,"4":0.13,"5":0.095,"6":0.07,"7":0.07,"8":0.08,"9":0.05,"10":0.04,"11":0.01,"12":0.015,"13":0.02,"14":0.025,"15":0.03,"16":0.005,"18":0.01,"19":0.005,"22":0.01},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.03,"1":0.1,"2":0.185,"3":0.14,"4":0.205,"5":0.12,"6":0.11,"7":0.03,"8":0.05,"9":0.02,"11":0.005,"14":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.02,"1":0.07,"2":0.125,"3":0.12,"4":0.12,"5":0.085,"6":0.045,"7":0.075,"8":0.07,"9":0.05,"10":0.06,"11":0.035,"12":0.03,"13":0.015,"14":0.015,"15":0.015,"16":0.01,"17":0.01,"18":0.005,"20":0.01,"21":0.005,"25":0.005,"28":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"1":0.01,"2":0.055,"3":0.095,"4":0.115,"5":0.15,"6":0.165,"7":0.17,"8":0.1,"9":0.085,"10":0.02,"11":0.015,"12":0.015,"14":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.04,"1":0.11,"2":0.22,"3":0.16,"4":0.155,"5":0.155,"6":0.065,"7":0.05,"8":0.015,"9":0.015,"10":0.015},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.065,"1":0.16,"2":0.165,"3":0.17,"4":0.105,"5":0.105,"6":0.095,"7":0.055,"8":0.04,"9":0.02,"10":0.01,"11":0.005,"15":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1740700800000,"validUntil":1743292800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5951,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2025","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.18422500000000003,"mean":0.625,"median":0,"bias":0.625,"maeMean":0.625,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.595,"empiricalMass":0.595,"logScore":0.5191938734365074},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.13435000000000002,"mean":0.46,"median":0,"bias":0.46,"maeMean":0.46,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.645,"empiricalMass":0.645,"logScore":0.43850496218636453},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.28225,"mean":0.87,"median":0,"bias":0.87,"maeMean":0.87,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.54,"empiricalMass":0.54,"logScore":0.616186139423817},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.33487500000000003,"mean":0.785,"median":1,"bias":0.785,"maeMean":0.785,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.46,"empiricalMass":0.46,"logScore":0.7765287894989963},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.18612499999999993,"mean":0.565,"median":0,"bias":0.565,"maeMean":0.565,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.585,"empiricalMass":0.585,"logScore":0.5361434317502807},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.14932500000000004,"mean":0.455,"median":0,"bias":0.455,"maeMean":0.455,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.62,"empiricalMass":0.62,"logScore":0.4780358009429998}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.595,"1":0.285,"2":0.05,"3":0.04,"4":0.03},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.645,"1":0.265,"2":0.075,"3":0.015},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.54,"1":0.23,"2":0.105,"3":0.08,"4":0.035,"5":0.01},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.46,"1":0.335,"2":0.17,"3":0.03,"4":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.585,"1":0.3,"2":0.09,"3":0.02,"5":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.62,"1":0.31,"2":0.065,"3":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1743292800000,"validUntil":1743379200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":2,"actual":1,"trainingCount":5977,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2025","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.32410000000000005,"mean":1.29,"median":1,"bias":0.29000000000000004,"maeMean":0.29000000000000004,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.41,"pitUpper":0.645,"empiricalMass":0.235,"logScore":1.448169764837978},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.272875,"mean":1.015,"median":1,"bias":0.014999999999999902,"maeMean":0.014999999999999902,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.43,"pitUpper":0.73,"empiricalMass":0.3,"logScore":1.2039728043259361},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.29480000000000006,"mean":1.15,"median":1,"bias":0.1499999999999999,"maeMean":0.1499999999999999,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.44,"pitUpper":0.72,"empiricalMass":0.28,"logScore":1.2729656758128873},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.2880999999999999,"mean":1.46,"median":1,"bias":0.45999999999999996,"maeMean":0.45999999999999996,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.24,"pitUpper":0.565,"empiricalMass":0.325,"logScore":1.1239300966523995},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.27025000000000005,"mean":0.68,"median":0.5,"bias":-0.31999999999999995,"maeMean":0.31999999999999995,"maeMedian":0.5,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.5,"pitUpper":0.865,"empiricalMass":0.365,"logScore":1.0078579253996456},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.2617,"mean":0.79,"median":1,"bias":-0.20999999999999996,"maeMean":0.20999999999999996,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.475,"pitUpper":0.82,"empiricalMass":0.345,"logScore":1.0642108619507773}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.41,"1":0.235,"2":0.21,"3":0.075,"4":0.02,"5":0.02,"6":0.01,"7":0.01,"9":0.005,"11":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.43,"1":0.3,"2":0.155,"3":0.075,"4":0.025,"5":0.01,"6":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.44,"1":0.28,"2":0.15,"3":0.07,"4":0.025,"5":0.02,"8":0.005,"12":0.01},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.24,"1":0.325,"2":0.24,"3":0.14,"4":0.04,"5":0.015},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.5,"1":0.365,"2":0.09,"3":0.045},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.475,"1":0.345,"2":0.125,"3":0.03,"4":0.02,"5":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1743292800000,"validUntil":1743379200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":3,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5977,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2025","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.01235,"mean":0.15,"median":0,"bias":0.15,"maeMean":0.15,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.895,"empiricalMass":0.895,"logScore":0.11093156070728166},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.010024999999999992,"mean":0.105,"median":0,"bias":0.105,"maeMean":0.105,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.9,"empiricalMass":0.9,"logScore":0.10536051565782628},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.009649999999999992,"mean":0.12,"median":0,"bias":0.12,"maeMean":0.12,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.905,"empiricalMass":0.905,"logScore":0.0998203352822109},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.04039999999999999,"mean":0.22,"median":0,"bias":0.22,"maeMean":0.22,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.8,"empiricalMass":0.8,"logScore":0.2231435513142097},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.0169,"mean":0.13,"median":0,"bias":0.13,"maeMean":0.13,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.87,"empiricalMass":0.87,"logScore":0.13926206733350766},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.007350000000000009,"mean":0.1,"median":0,"bias":0.1,"maeMean":0.1,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.915,"empiricalMass":0.915,"logScore":0.0888312137066157}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.895,"1":0.07,"2":0.025,"3":0.01},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.9,"1":0.095,"2":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.905,"1":0.07,"2":0.025},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.8,"1":0.18,"2":0.02},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.87,"1":0.13},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.915,"1":0.075,"2":0.005,"3":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1743292800000,"validUntil":1743379200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5977,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2025","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.0002249999999999995,"mean":0.015,"median":0,"bias":0.015,"maeMean":0.015,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.985,"empiricalMass":0.985,"logScore":0.015113637810048184},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.0002249999999999995,"mean":0.015,"median":0,"bias":0.015,"maeMean":0.015,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.985,"empiricalMass":0.985,"logScore":0.015113637810048184},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0,"mean":0,"median":0,"bias":0,"maeMean":0,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":1,"empiricalMass":1,"logScore":0},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.0002249999999999995,"mean":0.015,"median":0,"bias":0.015,"maeMean":0.015,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.985,"empiricalMass":0.985,"logScore":0.015113637810048184},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.00002499999999999985,"mean":0.005,"median":0,"bias":0.005,"maeMean":0.005,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.995,"empiricalMass":0.995,"logScore":0.005012541823544286},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.0006250000000000006,"mean":0.025,"median":0,"bias":0.025,"maeMean":0.025,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.975,"empiricalMass":0.975,"logScore":0.025317807984289897}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.985,"1":0.015},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.985,"1":0.015},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":1},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.985,"1":0.015},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.995,"1":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.975,"1":0.025}}},{"issuedAt":1743292800000,"validUntil":1743897600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":2,"actual":5,"trainingCount":5977,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2025","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":2.6512,"mean":10.83,"median":9,"bias":5.83,"maeMean":5.83,"maeMedian":4,"low":3,"high":24,"coverage":true,"width":21,"pitLower":0.14,"pitUpper":0.205,"empiricalMass":0.065,"logScore":2.7333680090865},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.944375,"mean":6.625,"median":6,"bias":1.625,"maeMean":1.625,"maeMedian":1,"low":2,"high":13,"coverage":true,"width":11,"pitLower":0.3,"pitUpper":0.4,"empiricalMass":0.1,"logScore":2.3025850929940455},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":2.3100749999999994,"mean":10.865,"median":8,"bias":5.865,"maeMean":5.865,"maeMedian":3,"low":2,"high":29,"coverage":true,"width":27,"pitLower":0.155,"pitUpper":0.265,"empiricalMass":0.11,"logScore":2.2072749131897207},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":3.6004750000000003,"mean":10.415,"median":10,"bias":5.414999999999999,"maeMean":5.414999999999999,"maeMedian":5,"low":5,"high":17,"coverage":true,"width":12,"pitLower":0.035,"pitUpper":0.06,"empiricalMass":0.025,"logScore":3.6888794541139363},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.533175,"mean":5.415,"median":6,"bias":0.41500000000000004,"maeMean":0.41500000000000004,"maeMedian":1,"low":1,"high":9,"coverage":true,"width":8,"pitLower":0.32,"pitUpper":0.49,"empiricalMass":0.17,"logScore":1.7719568419318752},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.5501750000000001,"mean":5.775,"median":5,"bias":0.7750000000000004,"maeMean":0.7750000000000004,"maeMedian":0,"low":2,"high":10,"coverage":true,"width":8,"pitLower":0.3,"pitUpper":0.52,"empiricalMass":0.22,"logScore":1.5141277326297755}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"1":0.025,"2":0.01,"3":0.065,"4":0.04,"5":0.065,"6":0.1,"7":0.08,"8":0.075,"9":0.08,"10":0.07,"11":0.035,"12":0.055,"13":0.045,"14":0.045,"15":0.02,"16":0.03,"17":0.02,"18":0.025,"20":0.01,"21":0.025,"22":0.01,"23":0.01,"24":0.01,"25":0.01,"26":0.005,"27":0.005,"30":0.005,"31":0.005,"34":0.005,"44":0.005,"46":0.005,"48":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.005,"1":0.025,"2":0.06,"3":0.07,"4":0.14,"5":0.1,"6":0.15,"7":0.105,"8":0.08,"9":0.065,"10":0.07,"11":0.055,"12":0.015,"13":0.025,"14":0.015,"15":0.01,"17":0.005,"19":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"1":0.015,"2":0.04,"3":0.045,"4":0.055,"5":0.11,"6":0.085,"7":0.055,"8":0.115,"9":0.105,"10":0.045,"11":0.04,"12":0.025,"13":0.02,"14":0.04,"15":0.01,"16":0.02,"17":0.005,"18":0.02,"19":0.02,"20":0.005,"21":0.01,"22":0.005,"23":0.01,"24":0.025,"25":0.005,"26":0.015,"29":0.005,"31":0.01,"32":0.005,"33":0.005,"34":0.005,"35":0.005,"37":0.005,"44":0.005,"48":0.005,"53":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"2":0.005,"3":0.015,"4":0.015,"5":0.025,"6":0.03,"7":0.085,"8":0.16,"9":0.105,"10":0.1,"11":0.11,"12":0.095,"13":0.09,"14":0.05,"15":0.04,"16":0.02,"17":0.015,"18":0.02,"19":0.005,"20":0.005,"22":0.005,"23":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.01,"1":0.04,"2":0.05,"3":0.11,"4":0.11,"5":0.17,"6":0.22,"7":0.14,"8":0.08,"9":0.03,"10":0.015,"11":0.01,"12":0.01,"13":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.005,"1":0.015,"2":0.045,"3":0.09,"4":0.145,"5":0.22,"6":0.135,"7":0.11,"8":0.095,"9":0.065,"10":0.035,"11":0.035,"12":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1743292800000,"validUntil":1743897600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":3,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5977,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2025","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.469,"mean":1.27,"median":1,"bias":1.27,"maeMean":1.27,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.425,"empiricalMass":0.425,"logScore":0.8556661100577202},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.3530500000000001,"mean":0.91,"median":1,"bias":0.91,"maeMean":0.91,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.45,"empiricalMass":0.45,"logScore":0.7985076962177716},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.490625,"mean":1.345,"median":1,"bias":1.345,"maeMean":1.345,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.435,"empiricalMass":0.435,"logScore":0.8324092478934529},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.725975,"mean":1.355,"median":1,"bias":1.355,"maeMean":1.355,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.265,"empiricalMass":0.265,"logScore":1.3280254529959148},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.29292500000000005,"mean":0.675,"median":1,"bias":0.675,"maeMean":0.675,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.475,"empiricalMass":0.475,"logScore":0.7444404749474959},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.251325,"mean":0.665,"median":0,"bias":0.665,"maeMean":0.665,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.52,"empiricalMass":0.52,"logScore":0.6539264674066639}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.425,"1":0.255,"2":0.16,"3":0.075,"4":0.045,"5":0.01,"6":0.015,"7":0.005,"11":0.005,"12":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.45,"1":0.345,"2":0.125,"3":0.04,"4":0.02,"5":0.01,"6":0.005,"7":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.435,"1":0.225,"2":0.145,"3":0.085,"4":0.055,"5":0.01,"6":0.025,"7":0.005,"8":0.015},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.265,"1":0.345,"2":0.215,"3":0.12,"4":0.055},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.475,"1":0.395,"2":0.11,"3":0.02},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.52,"1":0.34,"2":0.105,"3":0.025,"4":0.01}}},{"issuedAt":1743292800000,"validUntil":1743897600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":5977,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2025","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.013625000000000012,"mean":0.135,"median":0,"bias":0.135,"maeMean":0.135,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.885,"empiricalMass":0.885,"logScore":0.12216763397420753},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.006425,"mean":0.085,"median":0,"bias":0.085,"maeMean":0.085,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.92,"empiricalMass":0.92,"logScore":0.08338160893905101},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.016000000000000014,"mean":0.16,"median":0,"bias":0.16,"maeMean":0.16,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.88,"empiricalMass":0.88,"logScore":0.12783337150988489},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.021125000000000005,"mean":0.155,"median":0,"bias":0.155,"maeMean":0.155,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.855,"empiricalMass":0.855,"logScore":0.15665381004537685},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.007225000000000009,"mean":0.085,"median":0,"bias":0.085,"maeMean":0.085,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.915,"empiricalMass":0.915,"logScore":0.0888312137066157},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.0121,"mean":0.11,"median":0,"bias":0.11,"maeMean":0.11,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.89,"empiricalMass":0.89,"logScore":0.11653381625595151}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.885,"1":0.095,"2":0.02},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.92,"1":0.075,"2":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.88,"1":0.08,"2":0.04},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.855,"1":0.135,"2":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.915,"1":0.085},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.89,"1":0.11}}},{"issuedAt":1743292800000,"validUntil":1745884800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":2,"actual":253,"trainingCount":5977,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2025","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":187.5834,"mean":52.19,"median":45.5,"bias":-200.81,"maeMean":200.81,"maeMedian":207.5,"low":24,"high":109,"coverage":false,"width":85,"pitLower":1,"pitUpper":1,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"rollingETAS":{"crps":218.0285,"mean":29.98,"median":29,"bias":-223.02,"maeMean":223.02,"maeMedian":224,"low":18,"high":43,"coverage":false,"width":25,"pitLower":1,"pitUpper":1,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":187.21677499999998,"mean":52.185,"median":44.5,"bias":-200.815,"maeMean":200.815,"maeMedian":208.5,"low":21,"high":109,"coverage":false,"width":88,"pitLower":1,"pitUpper":1,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":205.964075,"mean":43.935,"median":44,"bias":-209.065,"maeMean":209.065,"maeMedian":209,"low":34,"high":53,"coverage":false,"width":19,"pitLower":1,"pitUpper":1,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentPoisson":{"crps":225.971775,"mean":24.135,"median":24,"bias":-228.865,"maeMean":228.865,"maeMedian":229,"low":16,"high":34,"coverage":false,"width":18,"pitLower":1,"pitUpper":1,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":225.764925,"mean":24.215,"median":24,"bias":-228.785,"maeMean":228.785,"maeMedian":229,"low":16,"high":33,"coverage":false,"width":17,"pitLower":1,"pitUpper":1,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"19":0.015,"20":0.005,"23":0.015,"24":0.02,"25":0.015,"26":0.01,"27":0.015,"28":0.015,"29":0.01,"30":0.045,"31":0.015,"32":0.015,"33":0.025,"34":0.03,"35":0.015,"36":0.045,"37":0.02,"38":0.02,"39":0.025,"40":0.025,"41":0.02,"42":0.02,"43":0.02,"44":0.035,"45":0.005,"46":0.02,"47":0.01,"48":0.02,"49":0.01,"50":0.04,"51":0.01,"52":0.005,"53":0.01,"54":0.01,"55":0.015,"56":0.02,"57":0.02,"58":0.03,"59":0.015,"60":0.02,"61":0.015,"62":0.005,"63":0.005,"64":0.005,"65":0.01,"66":0.01,"67":0.01,"68":0.01,"69":0.01,"71":0.01,"73":0.015,"75":0.005,"76":0.005,"77":0.005,"81":0.01,"82":0.005,"84":0.005,"85":0.01,"86":0.005,"88":0.01,"94":0.01,"100":0.005,"102":0.005,"106":0.005,"109":0.005,"118":0.005,"122":0.01,"127":0.005,"130":0.005,"134":0.01,"141":0.005,"142":0.005,"153":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"12":0.005,"13":0.005,"14":0.005,"15":0.01,"17":0.02,"18":0.015,"19":0.055,"20":0.04,"21":0.03,"22":0.055,"23":0.03,"24":0.03,"25":0.015,"26":0.055,"27":0.05,"28":0.065,"29":0.045,"30":0.06,"31":0.03,"32":0.04,"33":0.04,"34":0.01,"35":0.01,"36":0.025,"37":0.03,"38":0.035,"39":0.03,"40":0.03,"41":0.03,"42":0.035,"43":0.015,"44":0.01,"46":0.01,"48":0.005,"51":0.005,"52":0.005,"59":0.005,"60":0.005,"65":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"18":0.01,"19":0.01,"20":0.02,"21":0.01,"22":0.005,"23":0.005,"24":0.005,"26":0.015,"27":0.005,"28":0.03,"29":0.015,"30":0.025,"31":0.02,"32":0.01,"33":0.03,"34":0.005,"35":0.065,"36":0.03,"37":0.025,"38":0.015,"39":0.02,"40":0.03,"41":0.03,"42":0.01,"43":0.025,"44":0.03,"45":0.01,"46":0.02,"47":0.025,"48":0.025,"49":0.015,"50":0.02,"51":0.01,"52":0.01,"53":0.02,"54":0.01,"55":0.02,"56":0.01,"57":0.01,"58":0.015,"59":0.005,"60":0.02,"61":0.01,"63":0.005,"64":0.005,"65":0.005,"66":0.02,"67":0.005,"68":0.01,"70":0.01,"71":0.02,"72":0.005,"74":0.015,"78":0.005,"79":0.01,"80":0.01,"82":0.005,"83":0.01,"86":0.005,"87":0.005,"91":0.01,"92":0.01,"93":0.005,"96":0.005,"102":0.005,"106":0.005,"109":0.005,"110":0.005,"111":0.005,"114":0.005,"116":0.01,"118":0.005,"119":0.005,"158":0.005,"186":0.005,"190":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"28":0.005,"32":0.015,"33":0.015,"34":0.015,"35":0.02,"36":0.02,"37":0.035,"38":0.045,"39":0.035,"40":0.06,"41":0.055,"42":0.075,"43":0.08,"44":0.045,"45":0.065,"46":0.105,"47":0.075,"48":0.03,"49":0.045,"50":0.035,"51":0.02,"52":0.035,"53":0.02,"54":0.03,"55":0.02},"recentPoisson":{"12":0.01,"13":0.005,"14":0.015,"15":0.015,"16":0.015,"17":0.025,"18":0.03,"19":0.07,"20":0.065,"21":0.07,"22":0.065,"23":0.1,"24":0.075,"25":0.06,"26":0.075,"27":0.05,"28":0.045,"29":0.035,"30":0.055,"31":0.03,"32":0.02,"33":0.01,"34":0.05,"35":0.005,"36":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"12":0.005,"13":0.01,"14":0.005,"15":0.015,"16":0.02,"17":0.04,"18":0.055,"19":0.055,"20":0.065,"21":0.065,"22":0.075,"23":0.07,"24":0.06,"25":0.06,"26":0.065,"27":0.04,"28":0.06,"29":0.07,"30":0.04,"31":0.04,"32":0.02,"33":0.03,"34":0.01,"35":0.005,"36":0.015,"45":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1743292800000,"validUntil":1745884800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":3,"actual":73,"trainingCount":5977,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2025","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":64.45965,"mean":6.22,"median":5,"bias":-66.78,"maeMean":66.78,"maeMedian":68,"low":1,"high":16,"coverage":false,"width":15,"pitLower":1,"pitUpper":1,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"rollingETAS":{"crps":67.8746,"mean":3.84,"median":4,"bias":-69.16,"maeMean":69.16,"maeMedian":69,"low":1,"high":8,"coverage":false,"width":7,"pitLower":1,"pitUpper":1,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":63.880725,"mean":6.625,"median":5,"bias":-66.375,"maeMean":66.375,"maeMedian":68,"low":2,"high":15,"coverage":false,"width":13,"pitLower":1,"pitUpper":1,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":65.85795,"mean":5.72,"median":6,"bias":-67.28,"maeMean":67.28,"maeMedian":67,"low":2,"high":11,"coverage":false,"width":9,"pitLower":1,"pitUpper":1,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentPoisson":{"crps":68.985425,"mean":3.035,"median":3,"bias":-69.965,"maeMean":69.965,"maeMedian":70,"low":0,"high":6,"coverage":false,"width":6,"pitLower":1,"pitUpper":1,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":69.06554999999999,"mean":2.9,"median":3,"bias":-70.1,"maeMean":70.1,"maeMedian":70,"low":0,"high":6,"coverage":false,"width":6,"pitLower":1,"pitUpper":1,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.02,"1":0.05,"2":0.08,"3":0.13,"4":0.15,"5":0.12,"6":0.12,"7":0.085,"8":0.035,"9":0.025,"10":0.06,"11":0.01,"12":0.025,"13":0.01,"15":0.02,"16":0.01,"17":0.02,"18":0.005,"19":0.005,"21":0.005,"23":0.005,"24":0.005,"27":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.035,"1":0.135,"2":0.14,"3":0.165,"4":0.18,"5":0.14,"6":0.085,"7":0.055,"8":0.015,"9":0.03,"10":0.01,"11":0.005,"14":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.01,"1":0.035,"2":0.085,"3":0.165,"4":0.14,"5":0.085,"6":0.09,"7":0.08,"8":0.06,"9":0.045,"10":0.02,"11":0.055,"12":0.03,"13":0.02,"14":0.015,"15":0.015,"17":0.005,"18":0.01,"19":0.01,"21":0.005,"22":0.005,"23":0.005,"24":0.005,"38":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.01,"1":0.025,"2":0.055,"3":0.095,"4":0.155,"5":0.13,"6":0.21,"7":0.105,"8":0.08,"9":0.055,"10":0.02,"11":0.03,"12":0.025,"14":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.05,"1":0.15,"2":0.225,"3":0.21,"4":0.17,"5":0.095,"6":0.07,"7":0.02,"8":0.005,"10":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.07,"1":0.185,"2":0.215,"3":0.2,"4":0.12,"5":0.105,"6":0.085,"7":0.005,"8":0.01,"11":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1743292800000,"validUntil":1745884800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":4,"actual":10,"trainingCount":5977,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2025","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":8.826475,"mean":0.695,"median":0,"bias":-9.305,"maeMean":9.305,"maeMedian":10,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":false,"width":3,"pitLower":1,"pitUpper":1,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"rollingETAS":{"crps":9.133424999999999,"mean":0.525,"median":0,"bias":-9.475,"maeMean":9.475,"maeMedian":10,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":false,"width":2,"pitLower":1,"pitUpper":1,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":8.6237,"mean":0.81,"median":0,"bias":-9.19,"maeMean":9.19,"maeMedian":10,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":false,"width":4,"pitLower":1,"pitUpper":1,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":8.684375,"mean":0.835,"median":1,"bias":-9.165,"maeMean":9.165,"maeMedian":9,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":false,"width":3,"pitLower":1,"pitUpper":1,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentPoisson":{"crps":9.114025,"mean":0.525,"median":0,"bias":-9.475,"maeMean":9.475,"maeMedian":10,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":false,"width":2,"pitLower":1,"pitUpper":1,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":9.285525000000002,"mean":0.415,"median":0,"bias":-9.585,"maeMean":9.585,"maeMedian":10,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":false,"width":2,"pitLower":1,"pitUpper":1,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.58,"1":0.235,"2":0.11,"3":0.06,"4":0.015},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.58,"1":0.34,"2":0.055,"3":0.025},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.555,"1":0.265,"2":0.085,"3":0.035,"4":0.035,"5":0.02,"6":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.445,"1":0.35,"2":0.14,"3":0.055,"4":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.61,"1":0.285,"2":0.075,"3":0.03},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.665,"1":0.28,"2":0.04,"3":0.01,"5":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1745884800000,"validUntil":1745971200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":2,"actual":9,"trainingCount":6230,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2025","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":1.4693,"mean":11.87,"median":10,"bias":2.869999999999999,"maeMean":2.869999999999999,"maeMedian":1,"low":4,"high":23,"coverage":true,"width":19,"pitLower":0.295,"pitUpper":0.405,"empiricalMass":0.11,"logScore":2.2072749131897207},"rollingETAS":{"crps":2.9864249999999997,"mean":4.815,"median":5,"bias":-4.185,"maeMean":4.185,"maeMedian":4,"low":1,"high":10,"coverage":true,"width":9,"pitLower":0.905,"pitUpper":0.94,"empiricalMass":0.035,"logScore":3.3524072174927233},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":2.20665,"mean":13.72,"median":12,"bias":4.720000000000001,"maeMean":4.720000000000001,"maeMedian":3,"low":5,"high":27,"coverage":true,"width":22,"pitLower":0.26,"pitUpper":0.305,"empiricalMass":0.045,"logScore":3.101092789211817},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":6.773325000000001,"mean":1.515,"median":1,"bias":-7.485,"maeMean":7.485,"maeMedian":8,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":false,"width":4,"pitLower":1,"pitUpper":1,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentPoisson":{"crps":6.99245,"mean":1.39,"median":1,"bias":-7.61,"maeMean":7.61,"maeMedian":8,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":false,"width":3,"pitLower":1,"pitUpper":1,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":7.950950000000001,"mean":1.4,"median":0,"bias":-7.6,"maeMean":7.6,"maeMedian":9,"low":0,"high":6,"coverage":false,"width":6,"pitLower":0.97,"pitUpper":0.97,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"2":0.01,"3":0.015,"4":0.04,"5":0.06,"6":0.055,"7":0.055,"8":0.06,"9":0.11,"10":0.105,"11":0.06,"12":0.05,"13":0.07,"14":0.06,"15":0.02,"16":0.025,"17":0.02,"18":0.035,"19":0.035,"20":0.015,"21":0.025,"22":0.02,"23":0.005,"24":0.005,"25":0.01,"27":0.005,"28":0.01,"29":0.005,"30":0.01,"31":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.02,"1":0.04,"2":0.18,"3":0.105,"4":0.13,"5":0.165,"6":0.15,"7":0.06,"8":0.055,"9":0.035,"10":0.03,"11":0.015,"12":0.005,"13":0.005,"18":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"4":0.025,"5":0.03,"6":0.055,"7":0.08,"8":0.07,"9":0.045,"10":0.05,"11":0.07,"12":0.08,"13":0.095,"14":0.075,"15":0.025,"16":0.04,"17":0.03,"18":0.065,"19":0.01,"20":0.02,"21":0.02,"22":0.01,"23":0.005,"24":0.005,"25":0.01,"26":0.015,"27":0.025,"29":0.005,"30":0.01,"34":0.005,"35":0.01,"40":0.005,"44":0.005,"48":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.25,"1":0.305,"2":0.26,"3":0.1,"4":0.05,"5":0.025,"6":0.005,"7":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.245,"1":0.335,"2":0.265,"3":0.115,"4":0.02,"5":0.02},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.89,"1":0.02,"2":0.015,"3":0.01,"4":0.01,"6":0.015,"7":0.01,"13":0.005,"16":0.005,"20":0.005,"30":0.01,"115":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1745884800000,"validUntil":1745971200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":3,"actual":0,"trainingCount":6230,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2025","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.726625,"mean":1.535,"median":1,"bias":1.535,"maeMean":1.535,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.3,"empiricalMass":0.3,"logScore":1.2039728043259361},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.19999999999999996,"mean":0.59,"median":0,"bias":0.59,"maeMean":0.59,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.57,"empiricalMass":0.57,"logScore":0.5621189181535413},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.8388249999999999,"mean":1.775,"median":1,"bias":1.775,"maeMean":1.775,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":6,"coverage":true,"width":6,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.27,"empiricalMass":0.27,"logScore":1.3093333199837622},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.036500000000000005,"mean":0.21,"median":0,"bias":0.21,"maeMean":0.21,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.81,"empiricalMass":0.81,"logScore":0.21072103131565253},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.06545000000000004,"mean":0.28,"median":0,"bias":0.28,"maeMean":0.28,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.745,"empiricalMass":0.745,"logScore":0.29437106060257756},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.0005249999999999977,"mean":0.055,"median":0,"bias":0.055,"maeMean":0.055,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.985,"empiricalMass":0.985,"logScore":0.015113637810048184}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.3,"1":0.28,"2":0.205,"3":0.12,"4":0.03,"5":0.04,"6":0.015,"7":0.005,"8":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.57,"1":0.31,"2":0.095,"3":0.02,"6":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.27,"1":0.26,"2":0.24,"3":0.085,"4":0.065,"5":0.02,"6":0.035,"7":0.005,"8":0.015,"11":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.81,"1":0.17,"2":0.02},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.745,"1":0.235,"2":0.015,"3":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.985,"1":0.005,"3":0.005,"7":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1745884800000,"validUntil":1745971200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":6230,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2025","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.02174999999999999,"mean":0.18,"median":0,"bias":0.18,"maeMean":0.18,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.855,"empiricalMass":0.855,"logScore":0.15665381004537685},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.006499999999999992,"mean":0.09,"median":0,"bias":0.09,"maeMean":0.09,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.92,"empiricalMass":0.92,"logScore":0.08338160893905101},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.04039999999999999,"mean":0.22,"median":0,"bias":0.22,"maeMean":0.22,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.8,"empiricalMass":0.8,"logScore":0.2231435513142097},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.00040000000000000105,"mean":0.02,"median":0,"bias":0.02,"maeMean":0.02,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.98,"empiricalMass":0.98,"logScore":0.020202707317519466},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.003599999999999999,"mean":0.06,"median":0,"bias":0.06,"maeMean":0.06,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.94,"empiricalMass":0.94,"logScore":0.06187540371808753},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.0005250000000000046,"mean":0.035,"median":0,"bias":0.035,"maeMean":0.035,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.98,"empiricalMass":0.98,"logScore":0.020202707317519466}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.855,"1":0.12,"2":0.015,"3":0.01},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.92,"1":0.07,"2":0.01},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.8,"1":0.18,"2":0.02},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.98,"1":0.02},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.94,"1":0.06},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.98,"1":0.01,"2":0.005,"3":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1745884800000,"validUntil":1746489600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":2,"actual":41,"trainingCount":6230,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2025","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":15.245425,"mean":68.655,"median":63,"bias":27.655,"maeMean":27.655,"maeMedian":22,"low":40,"high":118,"coverage":true,"width":78,"pitLower":0.05,"pitUpper":0.075,"empiricalMass":0.025,"logScore":3.6888794541139363},"rollingETAS":{"crps":13.930250000000001,"mean":23.26,"median":23,"bias":-17.74,"maeMean":17.74,"maeMedian":18,"low":13,"high":36,"coverage":false,"width":23,"pitLower":0.985,"pitUpper":0.995,"empiricalMass":0.01,"logScore":4.605170185988091},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":25.512674999999998,"mean":79.575,"median":76,"bias":38.575,"maeMean":38.575,"maeMedian":35,"low":48,"high":126,"coverage":false,"width":78,"pitLower":0.015,"pitUpper":0.015,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":29.157200000000003,"mean":10.06,"median":10,"bias":-30.939999999999998,"maeMean":30.939999999999998,"maeMedian":31,"low":6,"high":16,"coverage":false,"width":10,"pitLower":1,"pitUpper":1,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentPoisson":{"crps":29.267924999999998,"mean":9.925,"median":10,"bias":-31.075,"maeMean":31.075,"maeMedian":31,"low":5,"high":16,"coverage":false,"width":11,"pitLower":1,"pitUpper":1,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":30.894375,"mean":10.495,"median":0,"bias":-30.505000000000003,"maeMean":30.505000000000003,"maeMedian":41,"low":0,"high":75,"coverage":true,"width":75,"pitLower":0.925,"pitUpper":0.925,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"29":0.005,"31":0.005,"33":0.005,"35":0.005,"37":0.005,"38":0.005,"39":0.01,"40":0.01,"41":0.025,"42":0.005,"43":0.02,"44":0.025,"45":0.01,"46":0.01,"47":0.015,"49":0.02,"50":0.03,"51":0.025,"52":0.02,"53":0.025,"54":0.04,"55":0.04,"56":0.005,"57":0.02,"58":0.01,"59":0.01,"60":0.03,"61":0.015,"62":0.035,"63":0.03,"64":0.02,"65":0.01,"66":0.005,"67":0.035,"68":0.015,"69":0.01,"70":0.02,"71":0.02,"72":0.045,"74":0.01,"75":0.01,"76":0.01,"77":0.035,"78":0.01,"79":0.01,"80":0.005,"81":0.02,"84":0.005,"85":0.015,"86":0.01,"91":0.01,"92":0.005,"93":0.005,"95":0.01,"96":0.005,"97":0.005,"98":0.01,"99":0.01,"100":0.005,"101":0.005,"102":0.005,"104":0.005,"105":0.005,"106":0.005,"110":0.005,"112":0.005,"115":0.005,"116":0.005,"118":0.01,"120":0.005,"122":0.005,"125":0.005,"137":0.005,"147":0.01,"154":0.005,"163":0.005,"180":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"9":0.005,"10":0.015,"11":0.01,"12":0.005,"13":0.025,"14":0.025,"15":0.03,"16":0.065,"17":0.04,"18":0.06,"19":0.02,"20":0.05,"21":0.075,"22":0.055,"23":0.055,"24":0.05,"25":0.06,"26":0.065,"27":0.05,"28":0.025,"29":0.06,"30":0.015,"31":0.015,"32":0.015,"33":0.03,"34":0.02,"35":0.005,"36":0.01,"37":0.01,"38":0.015,"39":0.005,"41":0.01,"43":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"36":0.005,"38":0.005,"39":0.005,"43":0.005,"44":0.005,"46":0.005,"48":0.02,"49":0.01,"50":0.01,"51":0.015,"52":0.02,"53":0.005,"54":0.005,"55":0.005,"56":0.045,"57":0.01,"58":0.015,"59":0.01,"60":0.015,"61":0.015,"62":0.005,"63":0.02,"64":0.035,"65":0.025,"66":0.035,"67":0.02,"68":0.025,"69":0.015,"71":0.01,"73":0.04,"74":0.01,"75":0.02,"76":0.015,"77":0.02,"78":0.02,"79":0.02,"80":0.02,"81":0.015,"82":0.01,"83":0.02,"84":0.03,"85":0.015,"86":0.01,"87":0.02,"88":0.02,"89":0.015,"90":0.005,"91":0.01,"92":0.015,"93":0.01,"94":0.01,"95":0.01,"96":0.015,"98":0.01,"101":0.02,"102":0.005,"104":0.005,"105":0.005,"106":0.005,"107":0.01,"108":0.01,"109":0.005,"110":0.005,"113":0.005,"114":0.005,"115":0.01,"116":0.005,"119":0.005,"120":0.005,"124":0.015,"126":0.015,"130":0.005,"131":0.005,"135":0.005,"136":0.005,"138":0.005,"144":0.005,"163":0.005,"219":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"2":0.005,"3":0.005,"4":0.005,"5":0.02,"6":0.09,"7":0.135,"8":0.08,"9":0.095,"10":0.17,"11":0.08,"12":0.1,"13":0.065,"14":0.055,"15":0.04,"16":0.02,"17":0.02,"18":0.005,"19":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"3":0.005,"4":0.035,"5":0.055,"6":0.045,"7":0.07,"8":0.125,"9":0.14,"10":0.125,"11":0.125,"12":0.09,"13":0.04,"14":0.045,"15":0.04,"16":0.03,"17":0.015,"18":0.005,"19":0.005,"20":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.655,"1":0.085,"2":0.015,"3":0.015,"4":0.01,"5":0.015,"6":0.005,"7":0.015,"8":0.005,"10":0.005,"11":0.01,"13":0.02,"14":0.005,"16":0.015,"17":0.005,"19":0.005,"22":0.005,"27":0.005,"28":0.005,"29":0.005,"30":0.01,"32":0.005,"38":0.005,"43":0.005,"46":0.005,"53":0.005,"54":0.005,"75":0.005,"83":0.005,"88":0.005,"97":0.005,"104":0.005,"116":0.005,"124":0.005,"135":0.005,"171":0.005,"174":0.005,"228":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1745884800000,"validUntil":1746489600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":3,"actual":4,"trainingCount":6230,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2025","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":2.5848249999999995,"mean":8.835,"median":8,"bias":4.835000000000001,"maeMean":4.835000000000001,"maeMedian":4,"low":2,"high":19,"coverage":true,"width":17,"pitLower":0.095,"pitUpper":0.15,"empiricalMass":0.055,"logScore":2.900422093749666},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.6959000000000002,"mean":3.22,"median":3,"bias":-0.7799999999999998,"maeMean":0.7799999999999998,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":7,"coverage":true,"width":7,"pitLower":0.595,"pitUpper":0.74,"empiricalMass":0.145,"logScore":1.9310215365615626},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":3.27535,"mean":9.78,"median":9,"bias":5.779999999999999,"maeMean":5.779999999999999,"maeMedian":5,"low":3,"high":18,"coverage":true,"width":15,"pitLower":0.065,"pitUpper":0.135,"empiricalMass":0.07,"logScore":2.659260036932778},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":1.8859749999999997,"mean":1.525,"median":1,"bias":-2.475,"maeMean":2.475,"maeMedian":3,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.945,"pitUpper":0.99,"empiricalMass":0.045,"logScore":3.101092789211817},"recentPoisson":{"crps":1.38415,"mean":1.98,"median":2,"bias":-2.02,"maeMean":2.02,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.87,"pitUpper":0.95,"empiricalMass":0.08,"logScore":2.5257286443082556},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":3.2153500000000004,"mean":2.26,"median":0,"bias":-1.7400000000000002,"maeMean":1.7400000000000002,"maeMedian":4,"low":0,"high":13,"coverage":true,"width":13,"pitLower":0.92,"pitUpper":0.925,"empiricalMass":0.005,"logScore":5.298317366548036}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.005,"1":0.01,"2":0.045,"3":0.035,"4":0.055,"5":0.06,"6":0.145,"7":0.12,"8":0.1,"9":0.08,"10":0.055,"11":0.055,"12":0.05,"13":0.05,"14":0.035,"16":0.005,"17":0.015,"18":0.02,"19":0.02,"20":0.015,"22":0.015,"24":0.005,"32":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.065,"1":0.18,"2":0.175,"3":0.175,"4":0.145,"5":0.095,"6":0.09,"7":0.05,"8":0.015,"9":0.005,"11":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"1":0.01,"3":0.055,"4":0.07,"5":0.06,"6":0.085,"7":0.045,"8":0.1,"9":0.12,"10":0.105,"11":0.07,"12":0.045,"13":0.025,"14":0.045,"15":0.045,"16":0.025,"17":0.025,"18":0.025,"19":0.005,"21":0.01,"22":0.01,"23":0.005,"24":0.005,"28":0.005,"31":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.185,"1":0.365,"2":0.26,"3":0.135,"4":0.045,"5":0.005,"6":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.13,"1":0.285,"2":0.245,"3":0.21,"4":0.08,"5":0.045,"6":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.84,"1":0.045,"2":0.02,"3":0.015,"4":0.005,"5":0.01,"7":0.005,"10":0.005,"13":0.01,"15":0.01,"21":0.005,"24":0.005,"26":0.005,"43":0.005,"56":0.005,"69":0.005,"100":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1745884800000,"validUntil":1746489600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":6230,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2025","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.4670249999999999,"mean":1.085,"median":1,"bias":1.085,"maeMean":1.085,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.38,"empiricalMass":0.38,"logScore":0.9675840262617056},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.10387500000000005,"mean":0.405,"median":0,"bias":0.405,"maeMean":0.405,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.685,"empiricalMass":0.685,"logScore":0.3783364407199117},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.595725,"mean":1.285,"median":1,"bias":1.285,"maeMean":1.285,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.335,"empiricalMass":0.335,"logScore":1.0936247471570706},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.02260000000000001,"mean":0.16,"median":0,"bias":0.16,"maeMean":0.16,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.85,"empiricalMass":0.85,"logScore":0.16251892949777494},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.06849999999999998,"mean":0.29,"median":0,"bias":0.29,"maeMean":0.29,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.74,"empiricalMass":0.74,"logScore":0.3011050927839216},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.016674999999999995,"mean":0.335,"median":0,"bias":0.335,"maeMean":0.335,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.92,"empiricalMass":0.92,"logScore":0.08338160893905101}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.38,"1":0.355,"2":0.165,"3":0.065,"4":0.01,"5":0.01,"7":0.005,"8":0.01},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.685,"1":0.25,"2":0.045,"3":0.015,"4":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.335,"1":0.32,"2":0.175,"3":0.1,"4":0.045,"5":0.02,"7":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.85,"1":0.14,"2":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.74,"1":0.23,"2":0.03},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.92,"1":0.015,"2":0.015,"3":0.005,"4":0.02,"5":0.005,"6":0.005,"7":0.005,"9":0.005,"12":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1745884800000,"validUntil":1748476800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":2,"actual":97,"trainingCount":6230,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2025","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":69.486625,"mean":196.985,"median":191,"bias":99.98500000000001,"maeMean":99.98500000000001,"maeMedian":94,"low":119,"high":311,"coverage":false,"width":192,"pitLower":0.005,"pitUpper":0.005,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"rollingETAS":{"crps":25.1815,"mean":65.76,"median":65,"bias":-31.239999999999995,"maeMean":31.239999999999995,"maeMedian":32,"low":48,"high":82,"coverage":false,"width":34,"pitLower":0.99,"pitUpper":0.99,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":101.8451,"mean":228.31,"median":219.5,"bias":131.31,"maeMean":131.31,"maeMedian":122.5,"low":158,"high":323,"coverage":false,"width":165,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":48.35245,"mean":44.81,"median":44,"bias":-52.19,"maeMean":52.19,"maeMedian":53,"low":35,"high":56,"coverage":false,"width":21,"pitLower":1,"pitUpper":1,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentPoisson":{"crps":51.128899999999994,"mean":42.2,"median":42,"bias":-54.8,"maeMean":54.8,"maeMedian":55,"low":31,"high":53,"coverage":false,"width":22,"pitLower":1,"pitUpper":1,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":48.444625,"mean":44.255,"median":16,"bias":-52.745,"maeMean":52.745,"maeMedian":81,"low":0,"high":172,"coverage":true,"width":172,"pitLower":0.875,"pitUpper":0.875,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"90":0.005,"104":0.005,"108":0.005,"109":0.005,"113":0.005,"116":0.005,"117":0.005,"119":0.015,"122":0.005,"123":0.005,"126":0.005,"129":0.01,"130":0.01,"131":0.01,"132":0.005,"133":0.01,"134":0.02,"135":0.005,"138":0.01,"142":0.005,"143":0.015,"144":0.01,"147":0.01,"148":0.005,"150":0.01,"151":0.005,"152":0.005,"155":0.01,"156":0.01,"158":0.015,"159":0.005,"160":0.015,"161":0.01,"162":0.005,"163":0.015,"164":0.005,"165":0.01,"166":0.015,"167":0.015,"168":0.005,"169":0.005,"170":0.01,"171":0.005,"172":0.01,"173":0.01,"174":0.01,"175":0.005,"176":0.005,"177":0.005,"179":0.015,"180":0.005,"181":0.005,"182":0.01,"183":0.005,"184":0.005,"185":0.005,"186":0.01,"188":0.005,"189":0.01,"190":0.01,"191":0.01,"193":0.005,"194":0.015,"195":0.015,"197":0.015,"198":0.01,"199":0.02,"200":0.005,"201":0.01,"202":0.01,"204":0.005,"205":0.01,"206":0.01,"207":0.005,"208":0.025,"210":0.005,"211":0.005,"212":0.01,"216":0.01,"217":0.005,"218":0.01,"219":0.005,"220":0.005,"221":0.01,"222":0.01,"224":0.005,"225":0.025,"226":0.005,"229":0.005,"231":0.01,"232":0.005,"233":0.01,"236":0.005,"237":0.01,"238":0.005,"239":0.015,"242":0.005,"243":0.005,"245":0.005,"246":0.005,"248":0.005,"249":0.01,"251":0.005,"256":0.005,"264":0.005,"265":0.005,"273":0.01,"275":0.01,"276":0.005,"283":0.005,"295":0.005,"297":0.005,"300":0.005,"309":0.005,"311":0.005,"320":0.005,"332":0.005,"339":0.005,"345":0.005,"348":0.005,"350":0.005,"362":0.005,"363":0.01,"401":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"40":0.005,"41":0.01,"43":0.005,"45":0.005,"46":0.01,"47":0.01,"48":0.01,"49":0.015,"50":0.015,"51":0.01,"52":0.005,"53":0.01,"54":0.02,"55":0.03,"56":0.03,"57":0.04,"58":0.045,"59":0.03,"60":0.035,"61":0.025,"62":0.03,"63":0.025,"64":0.03,"65":0.055,"66":0.045,"67":0.035,"68":0.03,"69":0.015,"70":0.02,"71":0.045,"72":0.04,"73":0.03,"74":0.01,"75":0.035,"76":0.02,"77":0.03,"78":0.025,"79":0.01,"80":0.025,"81":0.01,"82":0.02,"83":0.01,"84":0.005,"85":0.005,"87":0.005,"88":0.005,"90":0.005,"91":0.005,"98":0.005,"101":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"103":0.005,"136":0.005,"147":0.005,"149":0.015,"155":0.01,"158":0.01,"159":0.005,"161":0.005,"162":0.005,"163":0.015,"164":0.01,"165":0.01,"166":0.005,"167":0.01,"168":0.01,"169":0.005,"171":0.005,"172":0.01,"173":0.005,"174":0.005,"175":0.005,"176":0.01,"177":0.005,"178":0.005,"179":0.01,"180":0.005,"181":0.005,"183":0.005,"186":0.01,"187":0.005,"188":0.005,"189":0.015,"190":0.01,"191":0.005,"192":0.015,"194":0.005,"195":0.015,"196":0.015,"197":0.005,"198":0.005,"199":0.01,"200":0.005,"202":0.015,"203":0.025,"204":0.005,"205":0.005,"206":0.005,"208":0.015,"209":0.005,"211":0.01,"212":0.01,"213":0.005,"214":0.03,"215":0.005,"216":0.005,"217":0.02,"218":0.005,"219":0.005,"220":0.025,"221":0.01,"222":0.005,"224":0.01,"225":0.01,"226":0.01,"227":0.005,"228":0.01,"229":0.01,"230":0.015,"231":0.005,"233":0.005,"237":0.005,"238":0.005,"239":0.005,"240":0.01,"241":0.005,"242":0.02,"243":0.005,"244":0.01,"249":0.005,"250":0.01,"251":0.005,"252":0.005,"253":0.01,"254":0.005,"257":0.005,"258":0.005,"260":0.01,"262":0.01,"264":0.005,"266":0.01,"267":0.005,"268":0.01,"270":0.01,"271":0.005,"272":0.005,"273":0.015,"274":0.005,"275":0.005,"276":0.005,"277":0.005,"279":0.005,"280":0.005,"282":0.01,"284":0.005,"285":0.005,"291":0.005,"293":0.005,"294":0.005,"296":0.005,"301":0.005,"305":0.005,"312":0.015,"313":0.01,"316":0.005,"317":0.005,"320":0.005,"321":0.005,"323":0.005,"326":0.005,"331":0.005,"335":0.005,"337":0.005,"348":0.005,"350":0.005,"360":0.005,"368":0.005,"389":0.005,"462":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"32":0.005,"33":0.015,"34":0.025,"35":0.025,"36":0.04,"37":0.03,"38":0.04,"39":0.06,"40":0.05,"41":0.07,"42":0.035,"43":0.09,"44":0.05,"45":0.055,"46":0.025,"47":0.035,"48":0.06,"49":0.03,"50":0.055,"51":0.05,"52":0.02,"53":0.035,"54":0.025,"55":0.005,"56":0.025,"57":0.005,"58":0.005,"59":0.005,"60":0.01,"61":0.01,"68":0.005,"70":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"26":0.005,"27":0.005,"29":0.005,"30":0.015,"31":0.02,"32":0.015,"33":0.01,"34":0.035,"35":0.05,"36":0.05,"37":0.04,"38":0.045,"39":0.045,"40":0.06,"41":0.07,"42":0.065,"43":0.04,"44":0.075,"45":0.04,"46":0.06,"47":0.05,"48":0.035,"49":0.065,"50":0.01,"51":0.025,"52":0.005,"53":0.015,"54":0.005,"55":0.01,"57":0.015,"60":0.005,"61":0.005,"64":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.135,"1":0.065,"2":0.055,"3":0.025,"4":0.035,"5":0.015,"6":0.035,"7":0.035,"8":0.02,"9":0.005,"10":0.01,"11":0.01,"12":0.015,"13":0.025,"15":0.01,"16":0.015,"17":0.005,"19":0.015,"20":0.01,"21":0.005,"23":0.02,"24":0.01,"25":0.015,"26":0.01,"27":0.005,"28":0.005,"30":0.005,"31":0.005,"32":0.01,"33":0.005,"34":0.01,"36":0.01,"37":0.005,"38":0.005,"39":0.005,"41":0.01,"42":0.005,"43":0.005,"44":0.015,"46":0.01,"47":0.01,"48":0.005,"49":0.015,"50":0.01,"51":0.01,"53":0.005,"55":0.01,"59":0.005,"61":0.005,"63":0.005,"65":0.005,"66":0.005,"70":0.005,"74":0.005,"76":0.02,"77":0.01,"79":0.005,"84":0.01,"87":0.005,"90":0.005,"96":0.005,"101":0.005,"102":0.005,"105":0.005,"110":0.01,"111":0.01,"115":0.005,"122":0.005,"124":0.005,"134":0.005,"150":0.005,"162":0.005,"165":0.005,"172":0.005,"179":0.005,"228":0.005,"258":0.005,"265":0.005,"276":0.005,"282":0.005,"303":0.005,"396":0.005,"400":0.005,"574":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1745884800000,"validUntil":1748476800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":3,"actual":11,"trainingCount":6230,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2025","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":8.311150000000001,"mean":24.57,"median":23,"bias":13.57,"maeMean":13.57,"maeMedian":12,"low":11,"high":45,"coverage":true,"width":34,"pitLower":0.035,"pitUpper":0.05,"empiricalMass":0.015,"logScore":4.199705077879927},"rollingETAS":{"crps":1.6673250000000002,"mean":8.555,"median":8,"bias":-2.4450000000000003,"maeMean":2.4450000000000003,"maeMedian":3,"low":4,"high":15,"coverage":true,"width":11,"pitLower":0.725,"pitUpper":0.795,"empiricalMass":0.07,"logScore":2.659260036932778},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":11.67795,"mean":27.84,"median":27.5,"bias":16.84,"maeMean":16.84,"maeMedian":16.5,"low":13,"high":43,"coverage":false,"width":30,"pitLower":0.01,"pitUpper":0.015,"empiricalMass":0.005,"logScore":5.298317366548036},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":3.4828,"mean":6.26,"median":6,"bias":-4.74,"maeMean":4.74,"maeMedian":5,"low":3,"high":10,"coverage":false,"width":7,"pitLower":0.955,"pitUpper":0.98,"empiricalMass":0.025,"logScore":3.6888794541139363},"recentPoisson":{"crps":1.4240000000000002,"mean":8.75,"median":9,"bias":-2.25,"maeMean":2.25,"maeMedian":2,"low":4,"high":14,"coverage":true,"width":10,"pitLower":0.785,"pitUpper":0.88,"empiricalMass":0.095,"logScore":2.353878387381596},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":5.267925,"mean":6.395,"median":1,"bias":-4.605,"maeMean":4.605,"maeMedian":10,"low":0,"high":29,"coverage":true,"width":29,"pitLower":0.8,"pitUpper":0.825,"empiricalMass":0.025,"logScore":3.6888794541139363}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"3":0.005,"6":0.005,"7":0.005,"8":0.005,"9":0.01,"10":0.005,"11":0.015,"12":0.035,"13":0.025,"14":0.03,"15":0.025,"16":0.07,"17":0.045,"18":0.045,"19":0.03,"20":0.04,"21":0.025,"22":0.02,"23":0.065,"24":0.035,"25":0.035,"26":0.035,"27":0.045,"28":0.025,"29":0.05,"30":0.03,"31":0.03,"32":0.035,"33":0.005,"34":0.015,"35":0.02,"36":0.015,"37":0.025,"38":0.015,"39":0.01,"41":0.01,"45":0.01,"46":0.005,"47":0.02,"49":0.005,"51":0.005,"53":0.01,"56":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"2":0.005,"3":0.035,"4":0.07,"5":0.09,"6":0.115,"7":0.1,"8":0.145,"9":0.09,"10":0.075,"11":0.07,"12":0.06,"13":0.04,"14":0.035,"15":0.035,"16":0.02,"17":0.015},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"6":0.005,"10":0.005,"11":0.005,"12":0.02,"13":0.015,"14":0.005,"15":0.025,"16":0.02,"17":0.025,"18":0.04,"19":0.015,"20":0.05,"21":0.02,"22":0.025,"23":0.05,"24":0.07,"25":0.04,"26":0.025,"27":0.04,"28":0.08,"29":0.04,"30":0.065,"31":0.045,"32":0.015,"33":0.015,"34":0.015,"35":0.02,"36":0.025,"37":0.025,"38":0.015,"39":0.025,"40":0.025,"41":0.02,"42":0.01,"43":0.01,"45":0.015,"46":0.005,"48":0.01,"55":0.005,"56":0.005,"59":0.005,"68":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"1":0.015,"2":0.025,"3":0.06,"4":0.155,"5":0.17,"6":0.145,"7":0.11,"8":0.155,"9":0.075,"10":0.045,"11":0.025,"12":0.005,"13":0.01,"15":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"2":0.005,"3":0.005,"4":0.05,"5":0.055,"6":0.075,"7":0.125,"8":0.165,"9":0.15,"10":0.155,"11":0.095,"12":0.025,"13":0.04,"14":0.02,"15":0.015,"16":0.01,"17":0.005,"18":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.485,"1":0.085,"2":0.04,"3":0.03,"4":0.015,"5":0.02,"6":0.03,"7":0.025,"8":0.02,"9":0.03,"10":0.02,"11":0.025,"12":0.02,"13":0.005,"14":0.025,"15":0.01,"16":0.02,"17":0.005,"18":0.015,"20":0.01,"23":0.005,"29":0.01,"32":0.005,"33":0.005,"36":0.005,"43":0.005,"47":0.005,"52":0.01,"54":0.005,"57":0.005,"121":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1745884800000,"validUntil":1748476800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":4,"actual":1,"trainingCount":6230,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2025","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.9139249999999999,"mean":2.905,"median":3,"bias":1.9049999999999998,"maeMean":1.9049999999999998,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":8,"coverage":true,"width":8,"pitLower":0.09,"pitUpper":0.3,"empiricalMass":0.21,"logScore":1.5606477482646683},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.21120000000000005,"mean":1.12,"median":1,"bias":0.1200000000000001,"maeMean":0.1200000000000001,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.325,"pitUpper":0.695,"empiricalMass":0.37,"logScore":0.9942522733438669},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":1.4126249999999998,"mean":3.575,"median":3,"bias":2.575,"maeMean":2.575,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":7,"coverage":true,"width":7,"pitLower":0.06,"pitUpper":0.185,"empiricalMass":0.125,"logScore":2.0794415416798357},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.28049999999999997,"mean":0.73,"median":1,"bias":-0.27,"maeMean":0.27,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.495,"pitUpper":0.815,"empiricalMass":0.32,"logScore":1.1394342831883648},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.243375,"mean":1.395,"median":1,"bias":0.395,"maeMean":0.395,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.225,"pitUpper":0.59,"empiricalMass":0.365,"logScore":1.0078579253996456},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.5600999999999999,"mean":1.03,"median":0,"bias":0.030000000000000027,"maeMean":0.030000000000000027,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.7,"pitUpper":0.81,"empiricalMass":0.11,"logScore":2.2072749131897207}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.09,"1":0.21,"2":0.185,"3":0.205,"4":0.13,"5":0.07,"6":0.035,"7":0.02,"8":0.02,"9":0.025,"10":0.005,"11":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.325,"1":0.37,"2":0.195,"3":0.09,"4":0.015,"6":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.06,"1":0.125,"2":0.17,"3":0.21,"4":0.145,"5":0.095,"6":0.08,"7":0.065,"8":0.02,"9":0.01,"10":0.005,"11":0.005,"12":0.005,"15":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.495,"1":0.32,"2":0.15,"3":0.03,"4":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.225,"1":0.365,"2":0.265,"3":0.085,"4":0.055,"5":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.7,"1":0.11,"2":0.065,"3":0.035,"4":0.035,"5":0.005,"6":0.01,"7":0.01,"8":0.005,"10":0.005,"11":0.005,"12":0.005,"13":0.005,"24":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1748476800000,"validUntil":1748563200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":2,"actual":5,"trainingCount":6327,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2025","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":1.8863249999999998,"mean":2.615,"median":2,"bias":-2.385,"maeMean":2.385,"maeMedian":3,"low":0,"high":8,"coverage":true,"width":8,"pitLower":0.84,"pitUpper":0.885,"empiricalMass":0.045,"logScore":3.101092789211817},"rollingETAS":{"crps":2.888125,"mean":1.445,"median":1,"bias":-3.5549999999999997,"maeMean":3.5549999999999997,"maeMedian":4,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":false,"width":4,"pitLower":0.955,"pitUpper":0.97,"empiricalMass":0.015,"logScore":4.199705077879927},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":1.643175,"mean":3.185,"median":2,"bias":-1.815,"maeMean":1.815,"maeMedian":3,"low":0,"high":9,"coverage":true,"width":9,"pitLower":0.77,"pitUpper":0.855,"empiricalMass":0.085,"logScore":2.4651040224918206},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":2.8203,"mean":1.57,"median":1,"bias":-3.4299999999999997,"maeMean":3.4299999999999997,"maeMedian":4,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":false,"width":4,"pitLower":0.99,"pitUpper":0.995,"empiricalMass":0.005,"logScore":5.298317366548036},"recentPoisson":{"crps":2.7215749999999996,"mean":1.595,"median":1,"bias":-3.4050000000000002,"maeMean":3.4050000000000002,"maeMedian":4,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":false,"width":4,"pitLower":0.97,"pitUpper":1,"empiricalMass":0.03,"logScore":3.506557897319982},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":4.006775,"mean":2.025,"median":0,"bias":-2.975,"maeMean":2.975,"maeMedian":5,"low":0,"high":7,"coverage":true,"width":7,"pitLower":0.93,"pitUpper":0.935,"empiricalMass":0.005,"logScore":5.298317366548036}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.195,"1":0.205,"2":0.225,"3":0.125,"4":0.09,"5":0.045,"6":0.025,"7":0.025,"8":0.02,"9":0.015,"10":0.01,"12":0.01,"14":0.005,"18":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.305,"1":0.29,"2":0.225,"3":0.105,"4":0.03,"5":0.015,"6":0.02,"7":0.005,"8":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.17,"1":0.195,"2":0.22,"3":0.12,"4":0.065,"5":0.085,"6":0.03,"7":0.035,"8":0.02,"9":0.025,"10":0.015,"14":0.005,"17":0.005,"18":0.005,"60":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.17,"1":0.365,"2":0.26,"3":0.15,"4":0.045,"5":0.005,"6":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.195,"1":0.345,"2":0.255,"3":0.11,"4":0.065,"5":0.03},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.825,"1":0.045,"2":0.035,"3":0.01,"4":0.015,"5":0.005,"6":0.01,"7":0.005,"8":0.005,"19":0.01,"20":0.005,"22":0.005,"32":0.005,"45":0.005,"47":0.005,"53":0.005,"75":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1748476800000,"validUntil":1748563200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":3,"actual":0,"trainingCount":6327,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2025","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.045999999999999985,"mean":0.32,"median":0,"bias":0.32,"maeMean":0.32,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.8,"empiricalMass":0.8,"logScore":0.2231435513142097},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.04022499999999998,"mean":0.215,"median":0,"bias":0.215,"maeMean":0.215,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.8,"empiricalMass":0.8,"logScore":0.2231435513142097},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.075125,"mean":0.395,"median":0,"bias":0.395,"maeMean":0.395,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.735,"empiricalMass":0.735,"logScore":0.3078847797693004},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.030725000000000002,"mean":0.185,"median":0,"bias":0.185,"maeMean":0.185,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.825,"empiricalMass":0.825,"logScore":0.19237189264745613},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.057274999999999965,"mean":0.285,"median":0,"bias":0.285,"maeMean":0.285,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.765,"empiricalMass":0.765,"logScore":0.2678794451556012},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.0116,"mean":0.49,"median":0,"bias":0.49,"maeMean":0.49,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.93,"empiricalMass":0.93,"logScore":0.07257069283483537}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.8,"1":0.13,"2":0.04,"3":0.02,"5":0.01},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.8,"1":0.185,"2":0.015},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.735,"1":0.2,"2":0.045,"3":0.01,"4":0.005,"11":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.825,"1":0.165,"2":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.765,"1":0.19,"2":0.04,"3":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.93,"1":0.025,"2":0.015,"4":0.005,"5":0.015,"21":0.005,"47":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1748476800000,"validUntil":1748563200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":6327,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2025","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.0009250000000000022,"mean":0.035,"median":0,"bias":0.035,"maeMean":0.035,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.97,"empiricalMass":0.97,"logScore":0.030459207484708574},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.000899999999999998,"mean":0.03,"median":0,"bias":0.03,"maeMean":0.03,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.97,"empiricalMass":0.97,"logScore":0.030459207484708574},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.0020999999999999977,"mean":0.06,"median":0,"bias":0.06,"maeMean":0.06,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.955,"empiricalMass":0.955,"logScore":0.046043938501406846},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.0025000000000000022,"mean":0.05,"median":0,"bias":0.05,"maeMean":0.05,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.95,"empiricalMass":0.95,"logScore":0.05129329438755058},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.0006250000000000006,"mean":0.025,"median":0,"bias":0.025,"maeMean":0.025,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.975,"empiricalMass":0.975,"logScore":0.025317807984289897},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.0004750000000000032,"mean":0.035,"median":0,"bias":0.035,"maeMean":0.035,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.98,"empiricalMass":0.98,"logScore":0.020202707317519466}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.97,"1":0.025,"2":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.97,"1":0.03},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.955,"1":0.04,"4":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.95,"1":0.05},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.975,"1":0.025},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.98,"1":0.015,"4":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1748476800000,"validUntil":1749081600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":2,"actual":15,"trainingCount":6327,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2025","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":3.116275000000001,"mean":22.635,"median":19,"bias":7.635000000000002,"maeMean":7.635000000000002,"maeMedian":4,"low":7,"high":57,"coverage":true,"width":50,"pitLower":0.355,"pitUpper":0.375,"empiricalMass":0.02,"logScore":3.912023005428146},"rollingETAS":{"crps":3.062425,"mean":10.465,"median":10,"bias":-4.535,"maeMean":4.535,"maeMedian":5,"low":4,"high":18,"coverage":true,"width":14,"pitLower":0.84,"pitUpper":0.875,"empiricalMass":0.035,"logScore":3.3524072174927233},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":3.4655500000000004,"mean":22.73,"median":20,"bias":7.73,"maeMean":7.73,"maeMedian":5,"low":8,"high":47,"coverage":true,"width":39,"pitLower":0.235,"pitUpper":0.3,"empiricalMass":0.065,"logScore":2.7333680090865},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":2.8013249999999994,"mean":10.745,"median":11,"bias":-4.255000000000001,"maeMean":4.255000000000001,"maeMedian":4,"low":6,"high":17,"coverage":true,"width":11,"pitLower":0.865,"pitUpper":0.92,"empiricalMass":0.055,"logScore":2.900422093749666},"recentPoisson":{"crps":2.510525,"mean":11.185,"median":11,"bias":-3.8149999999999995,"maeMean":3.8149999999999995,"maeMedian":4,"low":6,"high":17,"coverage":true,"width":11,"pitLower":0.865,"pitUpper":0.915,"empiricalMass":0.05,"logScore":2.995732273553991},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":7.597375000000001,"mean":11.665,"median":1,"bias":-3.335000000000001,"maeMean":3.335000000000001,"maeMedian":14,"low":0,"high":57,"coverage":true,"width":57,"pitLower":0.785,"pitUpper":0.805,"empiricalMass":0.02,"logScore":3.912023005428146}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"5":0.01,"6":0.015,"7":0.03,"8":0.065,"9":0.03,"10":0.025,"11":0.04,"12":0.03,"13":0.05,"14":0.06,"15":0.02,"16":0.02,"17":0.05,"18":0.04,"19":0.055,"20":0.055,"21":0.025,"22":0.035,"23":0.035,"24":0.035,"25":0.015,"26":0.01,"27":0.035,"28":0.005,"29":0.015,"31":0.015,"32":0.01,"33":0.01,"34":0.005,"35":0.005,"36":0.02,"37":0.02,"39":0.005,"40":0.025,"43":0.005,"44":0.005,"46":0.005,"49":0.005,"56":0.005,"57":0.005,"58":0.005,"63":0.005,"66":0.005,"70":0.01,"71":0.005,"73":0.005,"74":0.005,"97":0.005,"145":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"2":0.01,"3":0.02,"4":0.02,"5":0.03,"6":0.065,"7":0.09,"8":0.095,"9":0.12,"10":0.13,"11":0.07,"12":0.09,"13":0.05,"14":0.05,"15":0.035,"16":0.045,"17":0.025,"18":0.015,"19":0.005,"20":0.015,"21":0.005,"22":0.005,"23":0.005,"26":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"6":0.015,"7":0.02,"8":0.015,"9":0.015,"10":0.02,"11":0.035,"12":0.035,"13":0.04,"14":0.04,"15":0.065,"16":0.045,"17":0.04,"18":0.03,"19":0.04,"20":0.05,"21":0.05,"22":0.03,"23":0.02,"24":0.03,"25":0.045,"26":0.045,"27":0.03,"28":0.025,"29":0.045,"30":0.03,"31":0.01,"32":0.01,"33":0.02,"34":0.005,"35":0.005,"36":0.005,"39":0.015,"40":0.01,"41":0.005,"45":0.005,"47":0.005,"49":0.005,"50":0.005,"51":0.005,"52":0.005,"58":0.005,"60":0.005,"61":0.005,"76":0.005,"80":0.005,"87":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"3":0.005,"4":0.025,"5":0.015,"6":0.04,"7":0.09,"8":0.075,"9":0.125,"10":0.115,"11":0.135,"12":0.095,"13":0.085,"14":0.06,"15":0.055,"16":0.025,"17":0.015,"18":0.01,"19":0.02,"20":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"5":0.015,"6":0.045,"7":0.055,"8":0.07,"9":0.155,"10":0.13,"11":0.1,"12":0.09,"13":0.115,"14":0.09,"15":0.05,"16":0.03,"17":0.01,"18":0.02,"19":0.005,"20":0.01,"21":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.455,"1":0.075,"2":0.035,"3":0.04,"4":0.02,"5":0.025,"6":0.035,"7":0.015,"8":0.015,"9":0.025,"10":0.015,"11":0.01,"12":0.01,"13":0.005,"14":0.005,"15":0.02,"16":0.005,"17":0.01,"21":0.005,"22":0.015,"23":0.005,"24":0.005,"25":0.005,"26":0.005,"27":0.01,"28":0.005,"29":0.01,"32":0.01,"34":0.01,"36":0.005,"38":0.005,"43":0.005,"45":0.005,"50":0.005,"52":0.005,"54":0.005,"55":0.005,"57":0.005,"58":0.005,"59":0.005,"62":0.005,"65":0.005,"67":0.005,"70":0.005,"88":0.005,"92":0.005,"105":0.005,"341":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1748476800000,"validUntil":1749081600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":3,"actual":1,"trainingCount":6327,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2025","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.7667249999999999,"mean":2.935,"median":2,"bias":1.935,"maeMean":1.935,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":9,"coverage":true,"width":9,"pitLower":0.19,"pitUpper":0.375,"empiricalMass":0.185,"logScore":1.6873994539038122},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.2623,"mean":1.43,"median":1,"bias":0.42999999999999994,"maeMean":0.42999999999999994,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.27,"pitUpper":0.615,"empiricalMass":0.345,"logScore":1.0642108619507773},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.8380999999999998,"mean":2.97,"median":2,"bias":1.9700000000000002,"maeMean":1.9700000000000002,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":9,"coverage":true,"width":9,"pitLower":0.11,"pitUpper":0.33,"empiricalMass":0.22,"logScore":1.5141277326297755},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.292825,"mean":1.515,"median":1,"bias":0.5149999999999999,"maeMean":0.5149999999999999,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.24,"pitUpper":0.57,"empiricalMass":0.33,"logScore":1.1086626245216111},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.6669249999999999,"mean":2.315,"median":2,"bias":1.315,"maeMean":1.315,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.11,"pitUpper":0.345,"empiricalMass":0.235,"logScore":1.448169764837978},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.6423749999999999,"mean":1.975,"median":0,"bias":0.9750000000000001,"maeMean":0.9750000000000001,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":13,"coverage":true,"width":13,"pitLower":0.7,"pitUpper":0.79,"empiricalMass":0.09,"logScore":2.4079456086518722}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.19,"1":0.185,"2":0.215,"3":0.115,"4":0.095,"5":0.055,"6":0.045,"7":0.035,"8":0.005,"9":0.015,"10":0.01,"12":0.015,"14":0.005,"16":0.005,"18":0.005,"22":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.27,"1":0.345,"2":0.2,"3":0.11,"4":0.045,"5":0.01,"6":0.015,"7":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.11,"1":0.22,"2":0.205,"3":0.165,"4":0.11,"5":0.065,"6":0.03,"7":0.025,"8":0.015,"9":0.02,"10":0.015,"11":0.005,"12":0.005,"15":0.005,"17":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.24,"1":0.33,"2":0.22,"3":0.14,"4":0.035,"5":0.025,"6":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.11,"1":0.235,"2":0.245,"3":0.19,"4":0.135,"5":0.04,"6":0.04,"8":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.7,"1":0.09,"2":0.05,"3":0.025,"4":0.025,"5":0.015,"6":0.015,"7":0.005,"10":0.005,"11":0.015,"13":0.015,"14":0.005,"15":0.005,"17":0.005,"19":0.005,"20":0.005,"23":0.005,"43":0.005,"49":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1748476800000,"validUntil":1749081600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":6327,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2025","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.06667499999999998,"mean":0.385,"median":0,"bias":0.385,"maeMean":0.385,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.755,"empiricalMass":0.755,"logScore":0.28103752973311236},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.022550000000000014,"mean":0.16,"median":0,"bias":0.16,"maeMean":0.16,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.85,"empiricalMass":0.85,"logScore":0.16251892949777494},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.04625000000000001,"mean":0.27,"median":0,"bias":0.27,"maeMean":0.27,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.79,"empiricalMass":0.79,"logScore":0.23572233352106983},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.031549999999999995,"mean":0.21,"median":0,"bias":0.21,"maeMean":0.21,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.825,"empiricalMass":0.825,"logScore":0.19237189264745613},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.05072499999999999,"mean":0.235,"median":0,"bias":0.235,"maeMean":0.235,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.775,"empiricalMass":0.775,"logScore":0.25489224962879004},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.022025000000000017,"mean":0.325,"median":0,"bias":0.325,"maeMean":0.325,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.875,"empiricalMass":0.875,"logScore":0.13353139262452263}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.755,"1":0.175,"2":0.035,"3":0.015,"4":0.01,"5":0.005,"6":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.85,"1":0.145,"3":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.79,"1":0.165,"2":0.035,"3":0.005,"4":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.825,"1":0.145,"2":0.025,"3":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.775,"1":0.215,"2":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.875,"1":0.065,"2":0.015,"3":0.03,"5":0.01,"18":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1748476800000,"validUntil":1751068800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":2,"actual":45,"trainingCount":6327,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2025","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":28.46535,"mean":90.92,"median":85,"bias":45.92,"maeMean":45.92,"maeMedian":40,"low":51,"high":154,"coverage":false,"width":103,"pitLower":0.015,"pitUpper":0.015,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"rollingETAS":{"crps":2.6975249999999997,"mean":41.645,"median":42,"bias":-3.354999999999997,"maeMean":3.354999999999997,"maeMedian":3,"low":28,"high":57,"coverage":true,"width":29,"pitLower":0.64,"pitUpper":0.67,"empiricalMass":0.03,"logScore":3.506557897319982},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":41.592974999999996,"mean":106.785,"median":99,"bias":61.785,"maeMean":61.785,"maeMedian":54,"low":62,"high":184,"coverage":false,"width":122,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":1.8459750000000001,"mean":45.695,"median":46,"bias":0.6950000000000003,"maeMean":0.6950000000000003,"maeMedian":1,"low":33,"high":59,"coverage":true,"width":26,"pitLower":0.43,"pitUpper":0.48,"empiricalMass":0.05,"logScore":2.995732273553991},"recentPoisson":{"crps":2.2718000000000003,"mean":48.76,"median":48,"bias":3.759999999999998,"maeMean":3.759999999999998,"maeMedian":3,"low":38,"high":62,"coverage":true,"width":24,"pitLower":0.31,"pitUpper":0.345,"empiricalMass":0.035,"logScore":3.3524072174927233},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":16.485450000000004,"mean":45.49,"median":16,"bias":0.490000000000002,"maeMean":0.490000000000002,"maeMedian":29,"low":0,"high":169,"coverage":true,"width":169,"pitLower":0.66,"pitUpper":0.665,"empiricalMass":0.005,"logScore":5.298317366548036}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"32":0.005,"38":0.005,"43":0.005,"46":0.01,"47":0.015,"48":0.005,"51":0.02,"53":0.015,"54":0.015,"55":0.005,"57":0.005,"58":0.01,"59":0.015,"60":0.02,"61":0.02,"64":0.02,"65":0.02,"66":0.01,"67":0.015,"68":0.04,"69":0.025,"70":0.01,"71":0.015,"72":0.01,"73":0.02,"74":0.005,"75":0.02,"76":0.005,"77":0.005,"78":0.02,"79":0.005,"80":0.035,"81":0.01,"82":0.01,"83":0.01,"84":0.015,"85":0.02,"86":0.015,"87":0.025,"88":0.02,"89":0.02,"90":0.015,"91":0.015,"92":0.005,"93":0.015,"94":0.005,"95":0.01,"96":0.01,"97":0.005,"99":0.01,"100":0.01,"101":0.005,"102":0.015,"103":0.01,"104":0.01,"105":0.005,"106":0.02,"107":0.005,"108":0.005,"109":0.01,"110":0.005,"112":0.005,"114":0.005,"115":0.01,"117":0.005,"119":0.005,"120":0.01,"122":0.005,"123":0.005,"124":0.02,"126":0.01,"131":0.005,"132":0.005,"134":0.005,"137":0.005,"138":0.015,"139":0.005,"140":0.005,"144":0.005,"146":0.005,"149":0.015,"151":0.005,"153":0.005,"154":0.005,"155":0.005,"159":0.005,"166":0.005,"177":0.005,"178":0.005,"182":0.015,"185":0.005,"195":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"23":0.005,"24":0.005,"25":0.01,"26":0.02,"27":0.005,"28":0.02,"29":0.025,"30":0.02,"31":0.03,"32":0.045,"33":0.005,"34":0.02,"35":0.055,"36":0.06,"37":0.035,"38":0.05,"39":0.015,"40":0.03,"41":0.03,"42":0.045,"43":0.04,"44":0.07,"45":0.03,"46":0.065,"47":0.015,"48":0.035,"49":0.015,"50":0.04,"51":0.015,"52":0.015,"53":0.035,"54":0.015,"55":0.005,"56":0.02,"57":0.015,"60":0.005,"61":0.005,"62":0.005,"63":0.015,"64":0.01},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"49":0.005,"51":0.005,"52":0.005,"53":0.005,"56":0.005,"59":0.01,"60":0.005,"61":0.005,"62":0.01,"63":0.01,"64":0.01,"65":0.005,"66":0.005,"67":0.01,"68":0.025,"69":0.015,"70":0.005,"71":0.015,"72":0.005,"73":0.01,"74":0.005,"75":0.04,"77":0.01,"78":0.01,"79":0.005,"80":0.02,"81":0.015,"82":0.005,"84":0.015,"85":0.025,"86":0.03,"87":0.015,"88":0.005,"89":0.005,"90":0.025,"91":0.02,"92":0.015,"94":0.005,"95":0.01,"96":0.025,"97":0.01,"98":0.015,"100":0.015,"101":0.015,"102":0.02,"103":0.025,"104":0.005,"105":0.01,"106":0.015,"107":0.015,"108":0.01,"110":0.015,"113":0.015,"114":0.005,"115":0.01,"117":0.005,"118":0.005,"120":0.02,"121":0.005,"122":0.015,"124":0.005,"125":0.015,"126":0.005,"128":0.01,"129":0.02,"130":0.01,"131":0.01,"132":0.01,"134":0.005,"136":0.01,"137":0.01,"139":0.015,"142":0.005,"143":0.01,"144":0.005,"148":0.015,"150":0.015,"153":0.005,"157":0.01,"161":0.005,"163":0.005,"167":0.005,"171":0.005,"173":0.005,"179":0.005,"184":0.005,"186":0.005,"187":0.005,"196":0.005,"203":0.005,"210":0.005,"218":0.005,"219":0.005,"220":0.005,"227":0.005,"298":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"27":0.01,"30":0.01,"31":0.01,"32":0.01,"33":0.025,"34":0.02,"35":0.015,"36":0.025,"37":0.02,"38":0.035,"39":0.03,"40":0.02,"41":0.075,"42":0.045,"43":0.04,"44":0.04,"45":0.05,"46":0.06,"47":0.045,"48":0.06,"49":0.055,"50":0.045,"51":0.025,"52":0.04,"53":0.025,"54":0.03,"55":0.015,"56":0.03,"57":0.02,"58":0.01,"59":0.02,"60":0.02,"61":0.015,"62":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"33":0.005,"34":0.01,"36":0.015,"37":0.005,"38":0.015,"39":0.025,"40":0.03,"41":0.035,"42":0.06,"43":0.055,"44":0.055,"45":0.035,"46":0.065,"47":0.055,"48":0.045,"49":0.035,"50":0.065,"51":0.06,"52":0.045,"53":0.045,"54":0.03,"55":0.05,"56":0.05,"57":0.005,"58":0.015,"59":0.01,"60":0.01,"61":0.01,"62":0.025,"63":0.01,"64":0.005,"66":0.005,"68":0.005,"69":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.13,"1":0.045,"2":0.02,"3":0.04,"4":0.055,"5":0.055,"6":0.015,"7":0.005,"8":0.015,"9":0.03,"10":0.015,"11":0.01,"12":0.03,"14":0.01,"15":0.01,"16":0.03,"17":0.015,"18":0.01,"19":0.01,"20":0.01,"22":0.005,"24":0.005,"25":0.01,"26":0.005,"27":0.005,"30":0.01,"31":0.01,"32":0.005,"33":0.005,"34":0.01,"39":0.01,"40":0.005,"41":0.005,"44":0.01,"45":0.005,"48":0.01,"49":0.005,"50":0.005,"52":0.01,"53":0.005,"54":0.005,"55":0.005,"56":0.005,"57":0.005,"59":0.015,"60":0.005,"61":0.005,"62":0.01,"65":0.005,"68":0.005,"70":0.015,"71":0.005,"72":0.005,"73":0.005,"74":0.005,"78":0.005,"79":0.005,"80":0.01,"81":0.005,"83":0.005,"92":0.005,"96":0.005,"103":0.005,"105":0.005,"109":0.005,"110":0.005,"115":0.005,"117":0.01,"122":0.005,"123":0.005,"124":0.01,"125":0.005,"129":0.005,"130":0.005,"131":0.005,"140":0.005,"145":0.005,"150":0.005,"161":0.005,"163":0.005,"164":0.005,"169":0.005,"174":0.005,"175":0.005,"209":0.005,"211":0.005,"221":0.005,"224":0.005,"245":0.005,"285":0.005,"369":0.005,"429":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1748476800000,"validUntil":1751068800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":3,"actual":6,"trainingCount":6327,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2025","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":2.5416499999999997,"mean":11.14,"median":10,"bias":5.140000000000001,"maeMean":5.140000000000001,"maeMedian":4,"low":3,"high":22,"coverage":true,"width":19,"pitLower":0.155,"pitUpper":0.22,"empiricalMass":0.065,"logScore":2.7333680090865},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.7218500000000001,"mean":5.24,"median":5,"bias":-0.7599999999999998,"maeMean":0.7599999999999998,"maeMedian":1,"low":1,"high":10,"coverage":true,"width":9,"pitLower":0.575,"pitUpper":0.73,"empiricalMass":0.155,"logScore":1.8643301620628905},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":4.0251,"mean":13.27,"median":12,"bias":7.27,"maeMean":7.27,"maeMedian":6,"low":4,"high":27,"coverage":true,"width":23,"pitLower":0.075,"pitUpper":0.105,"empiricalMass":0.03,"logScore":3.506557897319982},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.6821999999999999,"mean":6.68,"median":7,"bias":0.6799999999999997,"maeMean":0.6799999999999997,"maeMedian":1,"low":2,"high":12,"coverage":true,"width":10,"pitLower":0.355,"pitUpper":0.495,"empiricalMass":0.14,"logScore":1.9661128563728327},"recentPoisson":{"crps":2.1967749999999997,"mean":9.535,"median":10,"bias":3.535,"maeMean":3.535,"maeMedian":4,"low":5,"high":14,"coverage":true,"width":9,"pitLower":0.065,"pitUpper":0.14,"empiricalMass":0.075,"logScore":2.5902671654458267},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":3.030949999999999,"mean":8.61,"median":1,"bias":2.6099999999999994,"maeMean":2.6099999999999994,"maeMedian":5,"low":0,"high":45,"coverage":true,"width":45,"pitLower":0.68,"pitUpper":0.705,"empiricalMass":0.025,"logScore":3.6888794541139363}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.005,"1":0.005,"2":0.02,"3":0.025,"4":0.02,"5":0.08,"6":0.065,"7":0.075,"8":0.09,"9":0.1,"10":0.03,"11":0.09,"12":0.06,"13":0.08,"14":0.045,"15":0.015,"16":0.01,"17":0.035,"18":0.005,"19":0.03,"20":0.025,"21":0.035,"22":0.01,"23":0.005,"24":0.005,"25":0.015,"27":0.005,"28":0.005,"31":0.005,"38":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"1":0.065,"2":0.11,"3":0.1,"4":0.115,"5":0.185,"6":0.155,"7":0.09,"8":0.055,"9":0.055,"10":0.02,"11":0.035,"12":0.005,"13":0.01},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"1":0.005,"2":0.005,"3":0.03,"4":0.01,"5":0.025,"6":0.03,"7":0.045,"8":0.105,"9":0.075,"10":0.06,"11":0.065,"12":0.06,"13":0.085,"14":0.06,"15":0.05,"16":0.05,"17":0.03,"18":0.02,"19":0.03,"20":0.03,"21":0.015,"22":0.03,"23":0.01,"25":0.02,"27":0.01,"28":0.015,"30":0.005,"31":0.005,"33":0.005,"34":0.01,"43":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"1":0.02,"2":0.055,"3":0.055,"4":0.1,"5":0.125,"6":0.14,"7":0.155,"8":0.105,"9":0.09,"10":0.04,"11":0.05,"12":0.035,"13":0.01,"14":0.015,"15":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"3":0.015,"4":0.005,"5":0.045,"6":0.075,"7":0.085,"8":0.13,"9":0.135,"10":0.175,"11":0.145,"12":0.07,"13":0.025,"14":0.045,"15":0.02,"16":0.01,"17":0.015,"18":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.45,"1":0.105,"2":0.055,"3":0.02,"4":0.03,"5":0.02,"6":0.025,"7":0.02,"8":0.015,"9":0.015,"10":0.02,"11":0.01,"12":0.005,"13":0.01,"14":0.01,"15":0.01,"16":0.02,"17":0.005,"19":0.005,"20":0.01,"21":0.005,"22":0.015,"24":0.015,"25":0.005,"26":0.005,"27":0.005,"30":0.005,"31":0.005,"34":0.005,"36":0.01,"38":0.005,"44":0.005,"45":0.005,"48":0.01,"49":0.01,"58":0.005,"61":0.005,"64":0.005,"72":0.005,"101":0.005,"135":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1748476800000,"validUntil":1751068800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":6327,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2025","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.5208750000000001,"mean":1.225,"median":1,"bias":1.225,"maeMean":1.225,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.375,"empiricalMass":0.375,"logScore":0.9808292530117262},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.20504999999999995,"mean":0.57,"median":0,"bias":0.57,"maeMean":0.57,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.56,"empiricalMass":0.56,"logScore":0.579818495252942},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.838025,"mean":1.655,"median":1,"bias":1.655,"maeMean":1.655,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.245,"empiricalMass":0.245,"logScore":1.40649706843741},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.4256749999999999,"mean":0.965,"median":1,"bias":0.965,"maeMean":0.965,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.4,"empiricalMass":0.4,"logScore":0.916290731874155},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.71955,"mean":1.32,"median":1,"bias":1.32,"maeMean":1.32,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.25,"empiricalMass":0.25,"logScore":1.3862943611198906},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.16552500000000003,"mean":0.855,"median":0,"bias":0.855,"maeMean":0.855,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.7,"empiricalMass":0.7,"logScore":0.35667494393873245}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.375,"1":0.31,"2":0.165,"3":0.07,"4":0.035,"5":0.035,"6":0.01},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.56,"1":0.335,"2":0.085,"3":0.015,"4":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.245,"1":0.305,"2":0.23,"3":0.105,"4":0.065,"5":0.02,"6":0.015,"8":0.01,"9":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.4,"1":0.36,"2":0.155,"3":0.06,"4":0.01,"5":0.015},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.25,"1":0.38,"2":0.24,"3":0.075,"4":0.04,"5":0.015},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.7,"1":0.09,"2":0.06,"3":0.07,"4":0.045,"5":0.005,"6":0.015,"7":0.01,"14":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1751068800000,"validUntil":1751155200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":2,"actual":1,"trainingCount":6372,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2025","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.3743000000000001,"mean":2.11,"median":1,"bias":1.1099999999999999,"maeMean":1.1099999999999999,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":6,"coverage":true,"width":6,"pitLower":0.195,"pitUpper":0.56,"empiricalMass":0.365,"logScore":1.0078579253996456},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.26949999999999996,"mean":1.23,"median":1,"bias":0.22999999999999998,"maeMean":0.22999999999999998,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.355,"pitUpper":0.65,"empiricalMass":0.295,"logScore":1.2207799226423173},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.49302500000000005,"mean":2.265,"median":2,"bias":1.2650000000000001,"maeMean":1.2650000000000001,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":6,"coverage":true,"width":6,"pitLower":0.225,"pitUpper":0.48,"empiricalMass":0.255,"logScore":1.3664917338237108},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.25825,"mean":1.49,"median":1,"bias":0.49,"maeMean":0.49,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.175,"pitUpper":0.56,"empiricalMass":0.385,"logScore":0.9545119446943529},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.3931500000000001,"mean":1.66,"median":2,"bias":0.6599999999999999,"maeMean":0.6599999999999999,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.205,"pitUpper":0.46,"empiricalMass":0.255,"logScore":1.3664917338237108},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.738525,"mean":0.995,"median":0,"bias":-0.0050000000000000044,"maeMean":0.0050000000000000044,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":7,"coverage":true,"width":7,"pitLower":0.83,"pitUpper":0.88,"empiricalMass":0.05,"logScore":2.995732273553991}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.195,"1":0.365,"2":0.16,"3":0.085,"4":0.065,"5":0.055,"6":0.03,"7":0.02,"8":0.01,"11":0.005,"12":0.005,"24":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.355,"1":0.295,"2":0.215,"3":0.09,"4":0.025,"5":0.005,"6":0.01,"10":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.225,"1":0.255,"2":0.195,"3":0.14,"4":0.05,"5":0.06,"6":0.03,"7":0.005,"9":0.005,"10":0.005,"11":0.005,"12":0.01,"13":0.01,"17":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.175,"1":0.385,"2":0.26,"3":0.14,"4":0.035,"5":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.205,"1":0.255,"2":0.31,"3":0.15,"4":0.065,"5":0.015},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.83,"1":0.05,"2":0.015,"3":0.02,"4":0.02,"5":0.005,"6":0.005,"7":0.025,"9":0.005,"11":0.01,"23":0.005,"26":0.005,"29":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1751068800000,"validUntil":1751155200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":3,"actual":0,"trainingCount":6372,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2025","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.035924999999999985,"mean":0.245,"median":0,"bias":0.245,"maeMean":0.245,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.815,"empiricalMass":0.815,"logScore":0.2045671657412744},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.016024999999999984,"mean":0.145,"median":0,"bias":0.145,"maeMean":0.145,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.875,"empiricalMass":0.875,"logScore":0.13353139262452263},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.05587500000000001,"mean":0.315,"median":0,"bias":0.315,"maeMean":0.315,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.77,"empiricalMass":0.77,"logScore":0.2613647641344075},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.05102499999999999,"mean":0.245,"median":0,"bias":0.245,"maeMean":0.245,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.775,"empiricalMass":0.775,"logScore":0.25489224962879004},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.074125,"mean":0.305,"median":0,"bias":0.305,"maeMean":0.305,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.73,"empiricalMass":0.73,"logScore":0.31471074483970024},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.01529999999999998,"mean":0.48,"median":0,"bias":0.48,"maeMean":0.48,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.945,"empiricalMass":0.945,"logScore":0.05657035148839435}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.815,"1":0.145,"2":0.035,"6":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.875,"1":0.105,"2":0.02},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.77,"1":0.18,"2":0.035,"4":0.01,"5":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.775,"1":0.205,"2":0.02},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.73,"1":0.235,"2":0.035},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.945,"1":0.015,"2":0.005,"8":0.005,"9":0.005,"10":0.005,"12":0.005,"15":0.005,"18":0.005,"19":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1751068800000,"validUntil":1751155200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":6372,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2025","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.0006250000000000006,"mean":0.025,"median":0,"bias":0.025,"maeMean":0.025,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.975,"empiricalMass":0.975,"logScore":0.025317807984289897},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.0002249999999999995,"mean":0.015,"median":0,"bias":0.015,"maeMean":0.015,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.985,"empiricalMass":0.985,"logScore":0.015113637810048184},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.00042500000000000177,"mean":0.025,"median":0,"bias":0.025,"maeMean":0.025,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.98,"empiricalMass":0.98,"logScore":0.020202707317519466},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.002024999999999999,"mean":0.045,"median":0,"bias":0.045,"maeMean":0.045,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.955,"empiricalMass":0.955,"logScore":0.046043938501406846},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.0016000000000000042,"mean":0.04,"median":0,"bias":0.04,"maeMean":0.04,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.96,"empiricalMass":0.96,"logScore":0.040821994520255166},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.0005500000000000019,"mean":0.05,"median":0,"bias":0.05,"maeMean":0.05,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.985,"empiricalMass":0.985,"logScore":0.015113637810048184}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.975,"1":0.025},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.985,"1":0.015},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.98,"1":0.015,"2":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.955,"1":0.045},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.96,"1":0.04},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.985,"2":0.01,"6":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1751068800000,"validUntil":1751673600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":2,"actual":16,"trainingCount":6372,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2025","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":2.0734499999999993,"mean":18.17,"median":15,"bias":2.1700000000000017,"maeMean":2.1700000000000017,"maeMedian":1,"low":5,"high":41,"coverage":true,"width":36,"pitLower":0.52,"pitUpper":0.56,"empiricalMass":0.04,"logScore":3.2188758248682006},"rollingETAS":{"crps":5.20875,"mean":8.88,"median":8.5,"bias":-7.119999999999999,"maeMean":7.119999999999999,"maeMedian":7.5,"low":3,"high":17,"coverage":true,"width":14,"pitLower":0.925,"pitUpper":0.94,"empiricalMass":0.015,"logScore":4.199705077879927},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":1.9899749999999994,"mean":18.545,"median":15,"bias":2.5450000000000017,"maeMean":2.5450000000000017,"maeMedian":1,"low":6,"high":39,"coverage":true,"width":33,"pitLower":0.505,"pitUpper":0.565,"empiricalMass":0.06,"logScore":2.8134107167600364},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":3.686725,"mean":10.725,"median":11,"bias":-5.275,"maeMean":5.275,"maeMedian":5,"low":6,"high":16,"coverage":true,"width":10,"pitLower":0.915,"pitUpper":0.96,"empiricalMass":0.045,"logScore":3.101092789211817},"recentPoisson":{"crps":2.90465,"mean":11.45,"median":11,"bias":-4.550000000000001,"maeMean":4.550000000000001,"maeMedian":5,"low":6,"high":17,"coverage":true,"width":11,"pitLower":0.865,"pitUpper":0.925,"empiricalMass":0.06,"logScore":2.8134107167600364},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":9.208199999999998,"mean":8.78,"median":0.5,"bias":-7.220000000000001,"maeMean":7.220000000000001,"maeMedian":15.5,"low":0,"high":40,"coverage":true,"width":40,"pitLower":0.835,"pitUpper":0.85,"empiricalMass":0.015,"logScore":4.199705077879927}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"3":0.005,"4":0.015,"5":0.03,"6":0.055,"7":0.015,"8":0.035,"9":0.05,"10":0.065,"11":0.025,"12":0.045,"13":0.06,"14":0.05,"15":0.07,"16":0.04,"17":0.05,"18":0.04,"19":0.035,"20":0.015,"21":0.04,"22":0.035,"23":0.025,"24":0.01,"25":0.01,"26":0.02,"27":0.01,"28":0.01,"29":0.005,"30":0.01,"31":0.005,"32":0.015,"34":0.015,"35":0.015,"36":0.005,"37":0.01,"39":0.005,"41":0.005,"42":0.01,"45":0.005,"46":0.01,"51":0.005,"56":0.005,"58":0.005,"79":0.005,"95":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"1":0.01,"2":0.025,"3":0.045,"4":0.06,"5":0.13,"6":0.05,"7":0.095,"8":0.085,"9":0.09,"10":0.085,"11":0.075,"12":0.095,"13":0.055,"14":0.01,"15":0.015,"16":0.015,"17":0.01,"18":0.005,"19":0.01,"20":0.015,"21":0.015,"28":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"3":0.005,"4":0.015,"5":0.02,"6":0.015,"7":0.035,"8":0.035,"9":0.04,"10":0.04,"11":0.065,"12":0.06,"13":0.07,"14":0.04,"15":0.065,"16":0.06,"17":0.03,"18":0.03,"19":0.04,"20":0.045,"21":0.015,"22":0.04,"23":0.025,"24":0.025,"25":0.01,"26":0.025,"27":0.01,"28":0.005,"29":0.005,"30":0.01,"31":0.01,"32":0.01,"33":0.01,"34":0.01,"35":0.005,"36":0.015,"37":0.005,"39":0.005,"44":0.005,"46":0.005,"47":0.005,"48":0.005,"51":0.01,"54":0.005,"67":0.005,"82":0.005,"95":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"4":0.01,"5":0.03,"6":0.045,"7":0.05,"8":0.105,"9":0.13,"10":0.125,"11":0.11,"12":0.125,"13":0.095,"14":0.07,"15":0.02,"16":0.045,"17":0.015,"18":0.02,"19":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"2":0.005,"4":0.01,"5":0.02,"6":0.03,"7":0.04,"8":0.095,"9":0.125,"10":0.085,"11":0.115,"12":0.095,"13":0.1,"14":0.08,"15":0.065,"16":0.06,"17":0.035,"18":0.025,"19":0.01,"22":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.5,"1":0.11,"2":0.045,"3":0.015,"4":0.04,"5":0.015,"6":0.015,"7":0.01,"8":0.02,"9":0.02,"10":0.01,"11":0.015,"13":0.02,"16":0.015,"17":0.01,"19":0.01,"20":0.01,"21":0.005,"23":0.005,"24":0.01,"26":0.005,"27":0.005,"30":0.005,"32":0.005,"33":0.005,"35":0.005,"36":0.01,"39":0.005,"40":0.005,"42":0.005,"47":0.005,"52":0.005,"62":0.005,"64":0.005,"69":0.005,"71":0.005,"119":0.005,"139":0.005,"204":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1751068800000,"validUntil":1751673600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":3,"actual":5,"trainingCount":6372,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2025","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":2.004875,"mean":2.305,"median":2,"bias":-2.695,"maeMean":2.695,"maeMedian":3,"low":0,"high":7,"coverage":true,"width":7,"pitLower":0.86,"pitUpper":0.9,"empiricalMass":0.04,"logScore":3.2188758248682006},"rollingETAS":{"crps":3.360575,"mean":1.075,"median":1,"bias":-3.925,"maeMean":3.925,"maeMedian":4,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":false,"width":3,"pitLower":0.98,"pitUpper":0.995,"empiricalMass":0.015,"logScore":4.199705077879927},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":1.9448,"mean":2.37,"median":2,"bias":-2.63,"maeMean":2.63,"maeMedian":3,"low":0,"high":7,"coverage":true,"width":7,"pitLower":0.845,"pitUpper":0.905,"empiricalMass":0.06,"logScore":2.8134107167600364},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":2.8428999999999998,"mean":1.48,"median":1,"bias":-3.52,"maeMean":3.52,"maeMedian":4,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":false,"width":4,"pitLower":0.99,"pitUpper":0.995,"empiricalMass":0.005,"logScore":5.298317366548036},"recentPoisson":{"crps":2.1454500000000003,"mean":2.19,"median":2,"bias":-2.81,"maeMean":2.81,"maeMedian":3,"low":0,"high":6,"coverage":true,"width":6,"pitLower":0.92,"pitUpper":0.945,"empiricalMass":0.025,"logScore":3.6888794541139363},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":3.5658499999999997,"mean":2.76,"median":0,"bias":-2.24,"maeMean":2.24,"maeMedian":5,"low":0,"high":20,"coverage":true,"width":20,"pitLower":0.865,"pitUpper":0.87,"empiricalMass":0.005,"logScore":5.298317366548036}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.21,"1":0.235,"2":0.2,"3":0.125,"4":0.09,"5":0.04,"6":0.045,"7":0.025,"8":0.02,"9":0.005,"17":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.38,"1":0.305,"2":0.245,"3":0.03,"4":0.02,"5":0.015,"7":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.225,"1":0.24,"2":0.15,"3":0.14,"4":0.09,"5":0.06,"6":0.035,"7":0.015,"8":0.025,"9":0.005,"11":0.005,"12":0.005,"15":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.27,"1":0.265,"2":0.27,"3":0.12,"4":0.065,"5":0.005,"6":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.11,"1":0.23,"2":0.34,"3":0.16,"4":0.08,"5":0.025,"6":0.04,"7":0.005,"8":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.755,"1":0.065,"2":0.025,"3":0.015,"4":0.005,"5":0.005,"6":0.005,"7":0.005,"8":0.025,"9":0.015,"10":0.005,"11":0.005,"12":0.01,"16":0.005,"20":0.01,"26":0.01,"27":0.005,"32":0.005,"35":0.01,"39":0.005,"54":0.005,"56":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1751068800000,"validUntil":1751673600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":4,"actual":2,"trainingCount":6372,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2025","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":1.5495249999999998,"mean":0.265,"median":0,"bias":-1.7349999999999999,"maeMean":1.7349999999999999,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.945,"pitUpper":0.98,"empiricalMass":0.035,"logScore":3.3524072174927233},"rollingETAS":{"crps":1.7012749999999999,"mean":0.165,"median":0,"bias":-1.835,"maeMean":1.835,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":false,"width":1,"pitLower":0.985,"pitUpper":0.995,"empiricalMass":0.01,"logScore":4.605170185988091},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":1.52675,"mean":0.28,"median":0,"bias":-1.72,"maeMean":1.72,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":false,"width":1,"pitLower":0.95,"pitUpper":0.99,"empiricalMass":0.04,"logScore":3.2188758248682006},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":1.659125,"mean":0.185,"median":0,"bias":-1.815,"maeMean":1.815,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":false,"width":1,"pitLower":0.985,"pitUpper":1,"empiricalMass":0.015,"logScore":4.199705077879927},"recentPoisson":{"crps":1.515525,"mean":0.285,"median":0,"bias":-1.715,"maeMean":1.715,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":false,"width":1,"pitLower":0.98,"pitUpper":0.99,"empiricalMass":0.01,"logScore":4.605170185988091},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":1.74395,"mean":0.3,"median":0,"bias":-1.7,"maeMean":1.7,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":false,"width":1,"pitLower":0.955,"pitUpper":0.97,"empiricalMass":0.015,"logScore":4.199705077879927}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.81,"1":0.135,"2":0.035,"3":0.02},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.855,"1":0.13,"2":0.01,"3":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.79,"1":0.16,"2":0.04,"3":0.005,"5":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.83,"1":0.155,"2":0.015},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.745,"1":0.235,"2":0.01,"3":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.91,"1":0.045,"2":0.015,"5":0.01,"7":0.005,"8":0.01,"12":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1751068800000,"validUntil":1753660800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":2,"actual":47,"trainingCount":6372,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2025","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":15.766050000000003,"mean":79.22,"median":70,"bias":32.22,"maeMean":32.22,"maeMedian":23,"low":42,"high":153,"coverage":true,"width":111,"pitLower":0.1,"pitUpper":0.1,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"rollingETAS":{"crps":5.738649999999999,"mean":38.05,"median":37,"bias":-8.950000000000003,"maeMean":8.950000000000003,"maeMedian":10,"low":23,"high":55,"coverage":true,"width":32,"pitLower":0.81,"pitUpper":0.83,"empiricalMass":0.02,"logScore":3.912023005428146},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":18.12145,"mean":80.69,"median":74,"bias":33.69,"maeMean":33.69,"maeMedian":27,"low":41,"high":137,"coverage":true,"width":96,"pitLower":0.105,"pitUpper":0.11,"empiricalMass":0.005,"logScore":5.298317366548036},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":2.108575,"mean":44.635,"median":44,"bias":-2.365000000000002,"maeMean":2.365000000000002,"maeMedian":3,"low":35,"high":56,"coverage":true,"width":21,"pitLower":0.625,"pitUpper":0.675,"empiricalMass":0.05,"logScore":2.995732273553991},"recentPoisson":{"crps":2.215925,"mean":49.855,"median":50,"bias":2.854999999999997,"maeMean":2.854999999999997,"maeMedian":3,"low":39,"high":60,"coverage":true,"width":21,"pitLower":0.33,"pitUpper":0.375,"empiricalMass":0.045,"logScore":3.101092789211817},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":14.904824999999995,"mean":54.395,"median":27.5,"bias":7.395000000000003,"maeMean":7.395000000000003,"maeMedian":19.5,"low":0,"high":196,"coverage":true,"width":196,"pitLower":0.65,"pitUpper":0.655,"empiricalMass":0.005,"logScore":5.298317366548036}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"29":0.005,"32":0.005,"33":0.005,"36":0.01,"39":0.005,"40":0.01,"41":0.005,"42":0.005,"43":0.02,"45":0.015,"46":0.015,"48":0.015,"49":0.025,"50":0.015,"51":0.02,"52":0.01,"53":0.02,"54":0.02,"55":0.005,"56":0.01,"57":0.01,"58":0.03,"59":0.035,"60":0.025,"61":0.025,"62":0.025,"63":0.015,"64":0.015,"65":0.005,"66":0.01,"67":0.015,"68":0.02,"69":0.02,"70":0.025,"71":0.01,"72":0.005,"73":0.025,"74":0.02,"75":0.005,"76":0.03,"77":0.015,"78":0.015,"79":0.02,"82":0.015,"83":0.01,"84":0.01,"86":0.01,"88":0.02,"90":0.01,"91":0.005,"93":0.02,"94":0.005,"95":0.01,"96":0.005,"99":0.005,"100":0.01,"102":0.005,"103":0.01,"104":0.005,"106":0.01,"107":0.015,"109":0.01,"110":0.005,"111":0.005,"113":0.005,"115":0.01,"116":0.005,"117":0.005,"118":0.005,"120":0.005,"121":0.005,"122":0.005,"125":0.005,"127":0.01,"132":0.01,"145":0.01,"146":0.005,"153":0.01,"156":0.005,"157":0.01,"162":0.005,"163":0.005,"182":0.005,"188":0.005,"189":0.005,"329":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"19":0.01,"20":0.01,"21":0.01,"22":0.005,"23":0.025,"24":0.01,"25":0.01,"26":0.015,"27":0.015,"28":0.03,"29":0.025,"30":0.03,"31":0.035,"32":0.055,"33":0.055,"34":0.04,"35":0.06,"36":0.045,"37":0.03,"38":0.045,"39":0.04,"40":0.025,"41":0.045,"42":0.03,"43":0.035,"44":0.035,"45":0.025,"46":0.015,"47":0.02,"48":0.025,"49":0.005,"50":0.035,"51":0.02,"52":0.02,"53":0.01,"55":0.01,"56":0.01,"57":0.015,"59":0.005,"60":0.005,"61":0.005,"68":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"31":0.005,"32":0.005,"36":0.005,"38":0.015,"39":0.005,"40":0.01,"41":0.01,"42":0.01,"44":0.01,"45":0.015,"46":0.015,"47":0.005,"48":0.015,"49":0.015,"50":0.01,"52":0.02,"53":0.005,"54":0.015,"55":0.01,"56":0.005,"57":0.025,"58":0.015,"59":0.005,"60":0.005,"61":0.015,"62":0.01,"63":0.005,"64":0.035,"65":0.02,"66":0.02,"67":0.005,"68":0.01,"69":0.04,"70":0.04,"71":0.01,"72":0.015,"73":0.015,"74":0.015,"75":0.015,"76":0.02,"77":0.015,"78":0.02,"79":0.01,"80":0.01,"81":0.005,"83":0.005,"84":0.015,"85":0.015,"86":0.025,"87":0.005,"88":0.01,"89":0.02,"90":0.025,"91":0.005,"93":0.01,"94":0.025,"95":0.005,"96":0.015,"97":0.015,"98":0.02,"99":0.005,"103":0.005,"104":0.005,"107":0.01,"108":0.015,"111":0.005,"114":0.005,"115":0.005,"116":0.005,"117":0.005,"119":0.01,"120":0.005,"122":0.005,"123":0.01,"125":0.005,"126":0.005,"130":0.005,"131":0.005,"134":0.005,"136":0.005,"137":0.005,"143":0.005,"146":0.005,"149":0.005,"152":0.01,"177":0.005,"187":0.005,"202":0.005,"220":0.005,"255":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"29":0.01,"32":0.005,"33":0.01,"34":0.02,"35":0.01,"36":0.035,"37":0.075,"38":0.04,"39":0.025,"40":0.06,"41":0.045,"42":0.07,"43":0.08,"44":0.05,"45":0.05,"46":0.04,"47":0.05,"48":0.025,"49":0.065,"50":0.04,"51":0.03,"52":0.03,"53":0.04,"54":0.02,"55":0.02,"56":0.005,"57":0.01,"58":0.02,"60":0.005,"62":0.005,"63":0.005,"64":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"32":0.005,"33":0.01,"35":0.005,"36":0.01,"38":0.015,"39":0.025,"40":0.01,"41":0.03,"42":0.04,"43":0.05,"44":0.035,"45":0.045,"46":0.05,"47":0.045,"48":0.035,"49":0.05,"50":0.065,"51":0.055,"52":0.03,"53":0.07,"54":0.045,"55":0.05,"56":0.045,"57":0.05,"58":0.02,"59":0.04,"60":0.03,"61":0.01,"62":0.005,"63":0.01,"64":0.01,"66":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.085,"1":0.045,"2":0.04,"3":0.015,"4":0.02,"5":0.02,"6":0.02,"7":0.015,"8":0.03,"9":0.025,"10":0.045,"11":0.02,"12":0.005,"13":0.01,"14":0.01,"15":0.015,"17":0.01,"18":0.005,"19":0.005,"20":0.01,"21":0.015,"22":0.005,"23":0.005,"24":0.005,"25":0.01,"27":0.01,"28":0.005,"29":0.01,"30":0.01,"31":0.02,"32":0.005,"33":0.01,"34":0.005,"35":0.005,"36":0.01,"37":0.005,"39":0.005,"40":0.015,"41":0.02,"43":0.015,"45":0.005,"46":0.005,"47":0.005,"50":0.01,"51":0.005,"52":0.01,"54":0.01,"56":0.01,"58":0.005,"61":0.005,"62":0.015,"64":0.005,"65":0.005,"67":0.015,"68":0.01,"69":0.005,"75":0.005,"76":0.005,"77":0.005,"78":0.01,"79":0.005,"81":0.005,"86":0.005,"89":0.005,"91":0.005,"93":0.005,"94":0.005,"95":0.005,"97":0.005,"101":0.01,"104":0.005,"106":0.005,"107":0.005,"108":0.005,"109":0.005,"114":0.005,"116":0.005,"119":0.005,"124":0.005,"126":0.005,"137":0.01,"143":0.005,"155":0.005,"159":0.005,"161":0.005,"182":0.005,"184":0.005,"194":0.01,"196":0.005,"201":0.005,"250":0.005,"253":0.005,"286":0.005,"302":0.005,"307":0.005,"313":0.005,"375":0.005,"477":0.005,"498":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1751068800000,"validUntil":1753660800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":3,"actual":6,"trainingCount":6372,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2025","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":1.6696500000000003,"mean":9.74,"median":8,"bias":3.74,"maeMean":3.74,"maeMedian":2,"low":2,"high":21,"coverage":true,"width":19,"pitLower":0.24,"pitUpper":0.32,"empiricalMass":0.08,"logScore":2.5257286443082556},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.9341249999999999,"mean":4.735,"median":4,"bias":-1.2649999999999997,"maeMean":1.2649999999999997,"maeMedian":2,"low":1,"high":9,"coverage":true,"width":8,"pitLower":0.65,"pitUpper":0.745,"empiricalMass":0.095,"logScore":2.353878387381596},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":1.8028499999999998,"mean":9.79,"median":9,"bias":3.789999999999999,"maeMean":3.789999999999999,"maeMedian":3,"low":3,"high":20,"coverage":true,"width":17,"pitLower":0.215,"pitUpper":0.29,"empiricalMass":0.075,"logScore":2.5902671654458267},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.624525,"mean":6.665,"median":6,"bias":0.665,"maeMean":0.665,"maeMedian":0,"low":3,"high":11,"coverage":true,"width":8,"pitLower":0.34,"pitUpper":0.505,"empiricalMass":0.165,"logScore":1.8018098050815563},"recentPoisson":{"crps":2.0325749999999996,"mean":9.595,"median":9,"bias":3.5950000000000006,"maeMean":3.5950000000000006,"maeMedian":3,"low":4,"high":16,"coverage":true,"width":12,"pitLower":0.085,"pitUpper":0.18,"empiricalMass":0.095,"logScore":2.353878387381596},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":2.6669750000000008,"mean":9.755,"median":2,"bias":3.755000000000001,"maeMean":3.755000000000001,"maeMedian":4,"low":0,"high":42,"coverage":true,"width":42,"pitLower":0.66,"pitUpper":0.68,"empiricalMass":0.02,"logScore":3.912023005428146}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"1":0.01,"2":0.04,"3":0.05,"4":0.065,"5":0.075,"6":0.08,"7":0.085,"8":0.105,"9":0.085,"10":0.07,"11":0.065,"12":0.04,"13":0.045,"14":0.05,"15":0.02,"17":0.03,"18":0.005,"19":0.01,"20":0.01,"21":0.01,"22":0.005,"23":0.005,"26":0.01,"27":0.005,"29":0.005,"30":0.01,"31":0.005,"57":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.02,"1":0.055,"2":0.065,"3":0.215,"4":0.165,"5":0.13,"6":0.095,"7":0.115,"8":0.075,"9":0.04,"10":0.015,"11":0.01},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.005,"1":0.015,"2":0.025,"3":0.03,"4":0.09,"5":0.05,"6":0.075,"7":0.095,"8":0.095,"9":0.105,"10":0.06,"11":0.08,"12":0.035,"13":0.02,"14":0.045,"15":0.03,"16":0.025,"17":0.035,"18":0.02,"19":0.01,"20":0.01,"21":0.01,"23":0.005,"25":0.01,"27":0.005,"29":0.005,"35":0.005,"38":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"1":0.015,"2":0.025,"3":0.065,"4":0.125,"5":0.11,"6":0.165,"7":0.155,"8":0.125,"9":0.06,"10":0.06,"11":0.045,"12":0.025,"13":0.015,"14":0.005,"16":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.005,"2":0.005,"3":0.01,"4":0.03,"5":0.035,"6":0.095,"7":0.09,"8":0.16,"9":0.105,"10":0.12,"11":0.06,"12":0.075,"13":0.07,"14":0.055,"15":0.03,"16":0.02,"17":0.015,"18":0.015,"20":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.34,"1":0.125,"2":0.08,"3":0.06,"4":0.03,"5":0.025,"6":0.02,"7":0.025,"8":0.03,"9":0.04,"10":0.01,"12":0.03,"13":0.005,"14":0.015,"15":0.01,"17":0.01,"20":0.01,"21":0.01,"22":0.01,"24":0.005,"25":0.005,"26":0.005,"28":0.01,"29":0.005,"31":0.015,"33":0.005,"36":0.005,"39":0.005,"42":0.005,"48":0.005,"51":0.005,"52":0.005,"59":0.005,"66":0.005,"78":0.005,"80":0.005,"102":0.005,"156":0.005,"198":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1751068800000,"validUntil":1753660800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":4,"actual":2,"trainingCount":6372,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2025","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.6344000000000001,"mean":1.21,"median":1,"bias":-0.79,"maeMean":0.79,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.675,"pitUpper":0.855,"empiricalMass":0.18,"logScore":1.7147984280919266},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.99315,"mean":0.65,"median":0,"bias":-1.35,"maeMean":1.35,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.85,"pitUpper":0.985,"empiricalMass":0.135,"logScore":2.0024805005437076},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.6801499999999999,"mean":1.18,"median":1,"bias":-0.8200000000000001,"maeMean":0.8200000000000001,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.685,"pitUpper":0.845,"empiricalMass":0.16,"logScore":1.8325814637483102},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.8590749999999999,"mean":0.805,"median":1,"bias":-1.1949999999999998,"maeMean":1.1949999999999998,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.825,"pitUpper":0.955,"empiricalMass":0.13,"logScore":2.0402208285265546},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.3901000000000001,"mean":1.58,"median":1,"bias":-0.41999999999999993,"maeMean":0.41999999999999993,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.53,"pitUpper":0.78,"empiricalMass":0.25,"logScore":1.3862943611198906},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":1.0526,"mean":0.94,"median":0,"bias":-1.06,"maeMean":1.06,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.795,"pitUpper":0.885,"empiricalMass":0.09,"logScore":2.4079456086518722}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.39,"1":0.285,"2":0.18,"3":0.085,"4":0.02,"5":0.02,"6":0.015,"8":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.52,"1":0.33,"2":0.135,"3":0.01,"4":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.425,"1":0.26,"2":0.16,"3":0.09,"4":0.025,"5":0.02,"6":0.015,"8":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.42,"1":0.405,"2":0.13,"3":0.04,"4":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.23,"1":0.3,"2":0.25,"3":0.135,"4":0.06,"5":0.02,"7":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.63,"1":0.165,"2":0.09,"3":0.045,"4":0.03,"7":0.02,"8":0.01,"11":0.005,"13":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1753660800000,"validUntil":1753747200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":2,"actual":2,"trainingCount":6419,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2025","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.560225,"mean":1.675,"median":1,"bias":-0.32499999999999996,"maeMean":0.32499999999999996,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":6,"coverage":true,"width":6,"pitLower":0.625,"pitUpper":0.805,"empiricalMass":0.18,"logScore":1.7147984280919266},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.6334500000000001,"mean":1.27,"median":1,"bias":-0.73,"maeMean":0.73,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.695,"pitUpper":0.84,"empiricalMass":0.145,"logScore":1.9310215365615626},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.568225,"mean":1.985,"median":1,"bias":-0.014999999999999902,"maeMean":0.014999999999999902,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":6,"coverage":true,"width":6,"pitLower":0.56,"pitUpper":0.705,"empiricalMass":0.145,"logScore":1.9310215365615626},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.4176249999999999,"mean":1.465,"median":1,"bias":-0.5349999999999999,"maeMean":0.5349999999999999,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.585,"pitUpper":0.83,"empiricalMass":0.245,"logScore":1.40649706843741},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.4090999999999999,"mean":1.61,"median":1,"bias":-0.3899999999999999,"maeMean":0.3899999999999999,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.535,"pitUpper":0.755,"empiricalMass":0.22,"logScore":1.5141277326297755},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":1.4205999999999999,"mean":1.52,"median":0,"bias":-0.48,"maeMean":0.48,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":9,"coverage":true,"width":9,"pitLower":0.85,"pitUpper":0.88,"empiricalMass":0.03,"logScore":3.506557897319982}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.315,"1":0.31,"2":0.18,"3":0.07,"4":0.035,"5":0.025,"6":0.02,"7":0.01,"8":0.01,"9":0.005,"10":0.01,"11":0.005,"12":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.345,"1":0.35,"2":0.145,"3":0.1,"4":0.025,"5":0.01,"6":0.01,"7":0.005,"8":0.005,"9":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.34,"1":0.22,"2":0.145,"3":0.115,"4":0.07,"5":0.05,"6":0.025,"7":0.015,"10":0.005,"12":0.005,"21":0.005,"26":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.205,"1":0.38,"2":0.245,"3":0.105,"4":0.05,"5":0.01,"6":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.23,"1":0.305,"2":0.22,"3":0.15,"4":0.065,"5":0.025,"6":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.79,"1":0.06,"2":0.03,"3":0.01,"4":0.005,"5":0.015,"6":0.02,"7":0.01,"9":0.01,"11":0.005,"13":0.01,"16":0.01,"19":0.005,"21":0.005,"22":0.005,"23":0.005,"45":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1753660800000,"validUntil":1753747200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":3,"actual":0,"trainingCount":6419,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2025","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.028174999999999978,"mean":0.205,"median":0,"bias":0.205,"maeMean":0.205,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.835,"empiricalMass":0.835,"logScore":0.18032355413128162},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.02377500000000002,"mean":0.195,"median":0,"bias":0.195,"maeMean":0.195,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.85,"empiricalMass":0.85,"logScore":0.16251892949777494},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.02975,"mean":0.22,"median":0,"bias":0.22,"maeMean":0.22,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.835,"empiricalMass":0.835,"logScore":0.18032355413128162},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.021450000000000025,"mean":0.17,"median":0,"bias":0.17,"maeMean":0.17,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.855,"empiricalMass":0.855,"logScore":0.15665381004537685},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.036750000000000005,"mean":0.24,"median":0,"bias":0.24,"maeMean":0.24,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.815,"empiricalMass":0.815,"logScore":0.2045671657412744},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.006525000000000003,"mean":0.255,"median":0,"bias":0.255,"maeMean":0.255,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.945,"empiricalMass":0.945,"logScore":0.05657035148839435}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.835,"1":0.135,"2":0.025,"4":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.85,"1":0.115,"2":0.03,"4":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.835,"1":0.115,"2":0.045,"3":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.855,"1":0.125,"2":0.015,"3":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.815,"1":0.135,"2":0.045,"3":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.945,"1":0.02,"2":0.01,"3":0.01,"9":0.005,"10":0.005,"18":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1753660800000,"validUntil":1753747200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":6419,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2025","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.0006250000000000006,"mean":0.025,"median":0,"bias":0.025,"maeMean":0.025,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.975,"empiricalMass":0.975,"logScore":0.025317807984289897},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.0012500000000000011,"mean":0.04,"median":0,"bias":0.04,"maeMean":0.04,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.965,"empiricalMass":0.965,"logScore":0.03562717764315116},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.0009250000000000022,"mean":0.035,"median":0,"bias":0.035,"maeMean":0.035,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.97,"empiricalMass":0.97,"logScore":0.030459207484708574},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.0016000000000000042,"mean":0.04,"median":0,"bias":0.04,"maeMean":0.04,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.96,"empiricalMass":0.96,"logScore":0.040821994520255166},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.0009250000000000022,"mean":0.035,"median":0,"bias":0.035,"maeMean":0.035,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.97,"empiricalMass":0.97,"logScore":0.030459207484708574},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.00027500000000000094,"mean":0.025,"median":0,"bias":0.025,"maeMean":0.025,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.985,"empiricalMass":0.985,"logScore":0.015113637810048184}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.975,"1":0.025},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.965,"1":0.03,"2":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.97,"1":0.025,"2":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.96,"1":0.04},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.97,"1":0.025,"2":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.985,"1":0.01,"3":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1753660800000,"validUntil":1754265600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":2,"actual":10,"trainingCount":6419,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2025","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":1.9059,"mean":14.09,"median":11,"bias":4.09,"maeMean":4.09,"maeMedian":1,"low":4,"high":34,"coverage":true,"width":30,"pitLower":0.415,"pitUpper":0.465,"empiricalMass":0.05,"logScore":2.995732273553991},"rollingETAS":{"crps":1.382975,"mean":8.355,"median":8,"bias":-1.6449999999999996,"maeMean":1.6449999999999996,"maeMedian":2,"low":3,"high":15,"coverage":true,"width":12,"pitLower":0.65,"pitUpper":0.74,"empiricalMass":0.09,"logScore":2.4079456086518722},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":2.5356000000000005,"mean":15.32,"median":14,"bias":5.32,"maeMean":5.32,"maeMedian":4,"low":4,"high":33,"coverage":true,"width":29,"pitLower":0.31,"pitUpper":0.375,"empiricalMass":0.065,"logScore":2.7333680090865},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.8500500000000002,"mean":10.56,"median":11,"bias":0.5600000000000005,"maeMean":0.5600000000000005,"maeMedian":1,"low":6,"high":16,"coverage":true,"width":10,"pitLower":0.395,"pitUpper":0.485,"empiricalMass":0.09,"logScore":2.4079456086518722},"recentPoisson":{"crps":1.0856000000000001,"mean":11.84,"median":12,"bias":1.8399999999999999,"maeMean":1.8399999999999999,"maeMedian":2,"low":6,"high":17,"coverage":true,"width":11,"pitLower":0.245,"pitUpper":0.375,"empiricalMass":0.13,"logScore":2.0402208285265546},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":5.921575000000001,"mean":11.255,"median":0,"bias":1.2550000000000008,"maeMean":1.2550000000000008,"maeMedian":10,"low":0,"high":71,"coverage":true,"width":71,"pitLower":0.815,"pitUpper":0.82,"empiricalMass":0.005,"logScore":5.298317366548036}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"2":0.01,"3":0.005,"4":0.055,"5":0.055,"6":0.065,"7":0.125,"8":0.035,"9":0.065,"10":0.05,"11":0.065,"12":0.04,"13":0.03,"14":0.035,"15":0.06,"16":0.025,"17":0.03,"18":0.035,"19":0.015,"20":0.045,"21":0.005,"22":0.025,"23":0.005,"24":0.015,"25":0.015,"26":0.01,"27":0.01,"28":0.005,"30":0.005,"31":0.005,"34":0.005,"35":0.005,"37":0.005,"39":0.01,"41":0.005,"47":0.005,"48":0.005,"71":0.005,"75":0.005,"84":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.005,"1":0.005,"2":0.035,"3":0.045,"4":0.075,"5":0.1,"6":0.105,"7":0.12,"8":0.075,"9":0.085,"10":0.09,"11":0.07,"12":0.03,"13":0.045,"14":0.02,"15":0.045,"16":0.015,"17":0.015,"18":0.005,"21":0.01,"29":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"2":0.005,"3":0.02,"4":0.03,"5":0.035,"6":0.03,"7":0.085,"8":0.03,"9":0.075,"10":0.065,"11":0.035,"12":0.045,"13":0.03,"14":0.08,"15":0.04,"16":0.025,"17":0.02,"18":0.055,"19":0.025,"20":0.03,"21":0.04,"22":0.03,"23":0.02,"24":0.01,"25":0.01,"26":0.01,"27":0.005,"28":0.02,"29":0.015,"30":0.005,"31":0.015,"33":0.01,"34":0.015,"36":0.005,"37":0.005,"39":0.005,"40":0.005,"46":0.005,"49":0.01},"expandingPoisson":{"2":0.005,"3":0.005,"4":0.01,"5":0.02,"6":0.04,"7":0.11,"8":0.12,"9":0.085,"10":0.09,"11":0.12,"12":0.115,"13":0.095,"14":0.075,"15":0.035,"16":0.035,"17":0.03,"18":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"4":0.005,"5":0.005,"6":0.05,"7":0.03,"8":0.055,"9":0.1,"10":0.13,"11":0.105,"12":0.125,"13":0.105,"14":0.06,"15":0.07,"16":0.055,"17":0.065,"18":0.02,"19":0.015,"21":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.565,"1":0.07,"2":0.03,"3":0.035,"4":0.015,"5":0.035,"6":0.005,"7":0.025,"8":0.015,"9":0.02,"10":0.005,"12":0.005,"15":0.005,"17":0.005,"18":0.005,"19":0.005,"21":0.005,"22":0.01,"23":0.01,"24":0.005,"26":0.01,"27":0.005,"28":0.01,"30":0.01,"32":0.005,"37":0.005,"41":0.01,"46":0.005,"47":0.005,"65":0.005,"71":0.005,"76":0.005,"78":0.005,"86":0.005,"94":0.005,"101":0.005,"135":0.005,"149":0.005,"169":0.005,"178":0.005,"189":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1753660800000,"validUntil":1754265600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":3,"actual":2,"trainingCount":6419,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2025","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.45805000000000007,"mean":1.85,"median":1,"bias":-0.1499999999999999,"maeMean":0.1499999999999999,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":6,"coverage":true,"width":6,"pitLower":0.54,"pitUpper":0.75,"empiricalMass":0.21,"logScore":1.5606477482646683},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.6989000000000001,"mean":1.05,"median":1,"bias":-0.95,"maeMean":0.95,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.735,"pitUpper":0.915,"empiricalMass":0.18,"logScore":1.7147984280919266},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.48435000000000006,"mean":1.93,"median":1,"bias":-0.07000000000000006,"maeMean":0.07000000000000006,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":6,"coverage":true,"width":6,"pitLower":0.52,"pitUpper":0.685,"empiricalMass":0.165,"logScore":1.8018098050815563},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.399775,"mean":1.515,"median":1,"bias":-0.4850000000000001,"maeMean":0.4850000000000001,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.54,"pitUpper":0.785,"empiricalMass":0.245,"logScore":1.40649706843741},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.29927499999999996,"mean":2.195,"median":2,"bias":0.19499999999999984,"maeMean":0.19499999999999984,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.33,"pitUpper":0.615,"empiricalMass":0.285,"logScore":1.2552660987134867},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":1.42995,"mean":1.24,"median":0,"bias":-0.76,"maeMean":0.76,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":6,"coverage":true,"width":6,"pitLower":0.855,"pitUpper":0.865,"empiricalMass":0.01,"logScore":4.605170185988091}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.27,"1":0.27,"2":0.21,"3":0.13,"4":0.02,"5":0.045,"6":0.015,"7":0.01,"8":0.005,"9":0.005,"10":0.015,"14":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.385,"1":0.35,"2":0.18,"3":0.035,"4":0.025,"5":0.015,"6":0.01},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.26,"1":0.26,"2":0.165,"3":0.14,"4":0.075,"5":0.025,"6":0.05,"7":0.01,"8":0.01,"9":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.24,"1":0.3,"2":0.245,"3":0.15,"4":0.055,"5":0.005,"6":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.1,"1":0.23,"2":0.285,"3":0.215,"4":0.115,"5":0.04,"6":0.015},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.805,"1":0.05,"2":0.01,"3":0.025,"4":0.03,"5":0.01,"6":0.02,"7":0.015,"8":0.005,"11":0.01,"14":0.005,"15":0.005,"18":0.005,"63":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1753660800000,"validUntil":1754265600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":6419,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2025","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.04169999999999999,"mean":0.25,"median":0,"bias":0.25,"maeMean":0.25,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.8,"empiricalMass":0.8,"logScore":0.2231435513142097},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.008125000000000007,"mean":0.095,"median":0,"bias":0.095,"maeMean":0.095,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.91,"empiricalMass":0.91,"logScore":0.09431067947124129},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.025849999999999984,"mean":0.18,"median":0,"bias":0.18,"maeMean":0.18,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.84,"empiricalMass":0.84,"logScore":0.1743533871447778},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.01999999999999999,"mean":0.16,"median":0,"bias":0.16,"maeMean":0.16,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.86,"empiricalMass":0.86,"logScore":0.15082288973458366},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.05390000000000003,"mean":0.27,"median":0,"bias":0.27,"maeMean":0.27,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.77,"empiricalMass":0.77,"logScore":0.2613647641344075},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.013600000000000001,"mean":0.25,"median":0,"bias":0.25,"maeMean":0.25,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.9,"empiricalMass":0.9,"logScore":0.10536051565782628}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.8,"1":0.16,"2":0.03,"3":0.01},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.91,"1":0.085,"2":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.84,"1":0.145,"2":0.01,"3":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.86,"1":0.12,"2":0.02},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.77,"1":0.2,"2":0.02,"3":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.9,"1":0.06,"2":0.005,"3":0.02,"4":0.005,"9":0.005,"11":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1753660800000,"validUntil":1756252800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":2,"actual":33,"trainingCount":6419,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2025","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":21.479100000000003,"mean":69.62,"median":61.5,"bias":36.620000000000005,"maeMean":36.620000000000005,"maeMedian":28.5,"low":36,"high":132,"coverage":false,"width":96,"pitLower":0.02,"pitUpper":0.03,"empiricalMass":0.01,"logScore":4.605170185988091},"rollingETAS":{"crps":2.599875,"mean":36.465,"median":36,"bias":3.4650000000000034,"maeMean":3.4650000000000034,"maeMedian":3,"low":21,"high":51,"coverage":true,"width":30,"pitLower":0.335,"pitUpper":0.395,"empiricalMass":0.06,"logScore":2.8134107167600364},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":25.120525000000004,"mean":73.095,"median":67,"bias":40.095,"maeMean":40.095,"maeMedian":34,"low":40,"high":132,"coverage":false,"width":92,"pitLower":0.02,"pitUpper":0.02,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":9.35075,"mean":46.23,"median":46,"bias":13.229999999999997,"maeMean":13.229999999999997,"maeMedian":13,"low":34,"high":59,"coverage":false,"width":25,"pitLower":0.035,"pitUpper":0.045,"empiricalMass":0.01,"logScore":4.605170185988091},"recentPoisson":{"crps":14.178725,"mean":50.855,"median":51,"bias":17.854999999999997,"maeMean":17.854999999999997,"maeMedian":18,"low":40,"high":61,"coverage":false,"width":21,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":12.2153,"mean":54.25,"median":28,"bias":21.25,"maeMean":21.25,"maeMedian":5,"low":0,"high":188,"coverage":true,"width":188,"pitLower":0.54,"pitUpper":0.555,"empiricalMass":0.015,"logScore":4.199705077879927}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"24":0.005,"26":0.005,"31":0.005,"32":0.005,"33":0.01,"34":0.01,"35":0.005,"36":0.01,"37":0.005,"38":0.02,"39":0.005,"40":0.01,"41":0.015,"42":0.035,"43":0.005,"44":0.01,"45":0.01,"46":0.005,"47":0.035,"48":0.01,"49":0.01,"50":0.015,"51":0.02,"52":0.025,"53":0.015,"54":0.035,"55":0.03,"56":0.025,"57":0.015,"58":0.02,"59":0.03,"60":0.015,"61":0.025,"62":0.03,"63":0.03,"64":0.015,"65":0.015,"66":0.015,"67":0.01,"69":0.015,"70":0.005,"71":0.025,"72":0.01,"73":0.015,"74":0.005,"75":0.01,"76":0.005,"77":0.015,"78":0.005,"79":0.005,"80":0.01,"81":0.005,"85":0.02,"86":0.01,"87":0.005,"88":0.01,"90":0.01,"91":0.01,"92":0.01,"94":0.005,"95":0.005,"97":0.005,"98":0.01,"100":0.005,"101":0.015,"102":0.005,"103":0.01,"107":0.005,"108":0.01,"110":0.01,"112":0.005,"118":0.005,"120":0.005,"122":0.01,"123":0.005,"129":0.005,"130":0.005,"132":0.005,"134":0.005,"135":0.005,"139":0.005,"143":0.01,"145":0.005,"146":0.005,"150":0.005,"167":0.005,"192":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"18":0.015,"19":0.02,"20":0.01,"21":0.02,"22":0.005,"23":0.01,"24":0.005,"25":0.015,"26":0.015,"27":0.025,"28":0.065,"29":0.045,"30":0.035,"31":0.02,"32":0.03,"33":0.06,"34":0.045,"35":0.03,"36":0.035,"37":0.065,"38":0.02,"39":0.035,"40":0.035,"41":0.055,"42":0.03,"43":0.025,"44":0.03,"45":0.055,"46":0.005,"47":0.01,"48":0.03,"49":0.025,"50":0.005,"51":0.02,"52":0.005,"53":0.005,"54":0.015,"56":0.005,"57":0.015,"60":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"29":0.005,"30":0.01,"31":0.005,"34":0.005,"37":0.01,"38":0.005,"39":0.005,"40":0.01,"41":0.005,"43":0.01,"44":0.025,"45":0.015,"46":0.02,"47":0.01,"48":0.035,"49":0.01,"50":0.015,"51":0.015,"52":0.035,"53":0.015,"54":0.03,"55":0.02,"56":0.04,"57":0.01,"58":0.01,"59":0.01,"60":0.01,"61":0.02,"62":0.005,"63":0.02,"64":0.01,"65":0.015,"66":0.01,"67":0.035,"68":0.02,"69":0.02,"70":0.01,"71":0.025,"72":0.005,"73":0.005,"74":0.035,"75":0.015,"76":0.025,"77":0.01,"79":0.005,"81":0.01,"82":0.02,"83":0.015,"84":0.02,"85":0.005,"86":0.005,"87":0.005,"88":0.005,"89":0.005,"90":0.005,"92":0.01,"93":0.015,"94":0.015,"96":0.005,"98":0.015,"99":0.005,"101":0.015,"102":0.005,"107":0.005,"109":0.005,"110":0.005,"112":0.015,"113":0.01,"116":0.005,"117":0.005,"119":0.01,"120":0.005,"121":0.005,"122":0.005,"132":0.015,"139":0.005,"141":0.01,"148":0.005,"150":0.005,"153":0.005,"154":0.005,"155":0.005,"190":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"30":0.005,"31":0.02,"32":0.01,"33":0.01,"34":0.005,"35":0.01,"36":0.02,"37":0.02,"38":0.03,"39":0.025,"40":0.065,"41":0.05,"42":0.04,"43":0.05,"44":0.05,"45":0.065,"46":0.045,"47":0.06,"48":0.065,"49":0.03,"50":0.06,"51":0.025,"52":0.035,"53":0.06,"54":0.025,"55":0.025,"56":0.005,"57":0.01,"58":0.02,"59":0.03,"60":0.005,"61":0.01,"62":0.005,"63":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"37":0.01,"38":0.01,"39":0.02,"40":0.03,"41":0.02,"42":0.025,"43":0.045,"44":0.015,"45":0.035,"46":0.035,"47":0.045,"48":0.06,"49":0.075,"50":0.05,"51":0.065,"52":0.06,"53":0.035,"54":0.065,"55":0.07,"56":0.07,"57":0.025,"58":0.015,"59":0.015,"60":0.04,"61":0.015,"62":0.01,"63":0.01,"64":0.005,"65":0.01,"66":0.01,"72":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.07,"1":0.05,"2":0.01,"3":0.03,"4":0.035,"5":0.035,"6":0.015,"7":0.015,"8":0.025,"9":0.01,"10":0.01,"11":0.015,"12":0.005,"13":0.01,"14":0.02,"15":0.01,"16":0.005,"17":0.015,"18":0.01,"20":0.015,"21":0.01,"22":0.015,"23":0.005,"25":0.015,"27":0.01,"28":0.04,"29":0.01,"30":0.005,"32":0.02,"33":0.015,"34":0.005,"35":0.005,"36":0.005,"37":0.01,"38":0.005,"39":0.005,"41":0.005,"43":0.005,"44":0.015,"45":0.01,"46":0.01,"49":0.005,"51":0.01,"53":0.01,"54":0.005,"56":0.005,"57":0.005,"58":0.005,"59":0.01,"60":0.005,"64":0.005,"65":0.005,"66":0.005,"67":0.005,"70":0.005,"71":0.005,"72":0.005,"73":0.005,"75":0.005,"76":0.005,"78":0.005,"80":0.005,"81":0.005,"90":0.005,"91":0.005,"92":0.005,"93":0.005,"94":0.005,"98":0.01,"100":0.02,"101":0.015,"102":0.015,"106":0.01,"110":0.005,"117":0.005,"120":0.01,"130":0.005,"131":0.005,"133":0.005,"135":0.005,"138":0.01,"140":0.005,"143":0.005,"148":0.005,"150":0.005,"161":0.005,"174":0.005,"177":0.005,"178":0.005,"188":0.005,"199":0.005,"208":0.005,"245":0.005,"252":0.01,"264":0.005,"288":0.005,"289":0.005,"317":0.005,"345":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1753660800000,"validUntil":1756252800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":3,"actual":7,"trainingCount":6419,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2025","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":1.1975250000000002,"mean":8.475,"median":7,"bias":1.4749999999999996,"maeMean":1.4749999999999996,"maeMedian":0,"low":2,"high":19,"coverage":true,"width":17,"pitLower":0.445,"pitUpper":0.515,"empiricalMass":0.07,"logScore":2.659260036932778},"rollingETAS":{"crps":1.27445,"mean":4.97,"median":5,"bias":-2.0300000000000002,"maeMean":2.0300000000000002,"maeMedian":2,"low":1,"high":9,"coverage":true,"width":8,"pitLower":0.71,"pitUpper":0.82,"empiricalMass":0.11,"logScore":2.2072749131897207},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":1.1519749999999997,"mean":9.145,"median":8,"bias":2.1449999999999996,"maeMean":2.1449999999999996,"maeMedian":1,"low":2,"high":18,"coverage":true,"width":16,"pitLower":0.335,"pitUpper":0.46,"empiricalMass":0.125,"logScore":2.0794415416798357},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.6851499999999999,"mean":6.37,"median":6,"bias":-0.6299999999999999,"maeMean":0.6299999999999999,"maeMedian":1,"low":3,"high":11,"coverage":true,"width":8,"pitLower":0.525,"pitUpper":0.675,"empiricalMass":0.15,"logScore":1.8971199848858813},"recentPoisson":{"crps":1.606825,"mean":9.955,"median":10,"bias":2.955,"maeMean":2.955,"maeMedian":3,"low":5,"high":16,"coverage":true,"width":11,"pitLower":0.135,"pitUpper":0.24,"empiricalMass":0.105,"logScore":2.2537949288246137},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":3.1282749999999995,"mean":9.645,"median":2,"bias":2.6449999999999996,"maeMean":2.6449999999999996,"maeMedian":5,"low":0,"high":41,"coverage":true,"width":41,"pitLower":0.685,"pitUpper":0.715,"empiricalMass":0.03,"logScore":3.506557897319982}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"1":0.035,"2":0.06,"3":0.07,"4":0.08,"5":0.095,"6":0.105,"7":0.07,"8":0.07,"9":0.075,"10":0.055,"11":0.035,"12":0.035,"13":0.05,"14":0.04,"15":0.03,"16":0.02,"17":0.01,"18":0.005,"19":0.01,"20":0.01,"21":0.005,"23":0.005,"24":0.01,"25":0.005,"26":0.015},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.025,"1":0.045,"2":0.135,"3":0.11,"4":0.14,"5":0.155,"6":0.1,"7":0.11,"8":0.085,"9":0.045,"10":0.03,"11":0.01,"12":0.005,"13":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"1":0.01,"2":0.045,"3":0.045,"4":0.065,"5":0.07,"6":0.1,"7":0.125,"8":0.1,"9":0.065,"10":0.06,"11":0.06,"12":0.025,"13":0.045,"14":0.025,"15":0.015,"16":0.055,"17":0.025,"18":0.015,"19":0.005,"20":0.01,"21":0.005,"22":0.005,"23":0.01,"26":0.01,"29":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"2":0.03,"3":0.085,"4":0.125,"5":0.19,"6":0.095,"7":0.15,"8":0.15,"9":0.07,"10":0.035,"11":0.045,"12":0.015,"13":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"3":0.01,"4":0.02,"5":0.04,"6":0.065,"7":0.105,"8":0.135,"9":0.08,"10":0.145,"11":0.11,"12":0.095,"13":0.055,"14":0.045,"15":0.03,"16":0.025,"17":0.015,"18":0.01,"19":0.01,"20":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.37,"1":0.11,"2":0.085,"3":0.05,"4":0.02,"5":0.025,"6":0.025,"7":0.03,"8":0.015,"9":0.035,"10":0.01,"11":0.005,"12":0.01,"13":0.02,"14":0.01,"15":0.015,"17":0.01,"19":0.01,"20":0.005,"21":0.01,"22":0.01,"24":0.01,"25":0.01,"26":0.005,"27":0.005,"28":0.005,"29":0.01,"30":0.005,"33":0.005,"38":0.01,"41":0.005,"42":0.005,"49":0.005,"55":0.005,"57":0.005,"58":0.005,"64":0.005,"76":0.005,"100":0.005,"119":0.005,"248":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1753660800000,"validUntil":1756252800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":6419,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2025","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.3788,"mean":1.07,"median":1,"bias":1.07,"maeMean":1.07,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.46,"empiricalMass":0.46,"logScore":0.7765287894989963},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.16145000000000004,"mean":0.52,"median":0,"bias":0.52,"maeMean":0.52,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.61,"empiricalMass":0.61,"logScore":0.4942963218147801},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.447125,"mean":1.115,"median":1,"bias":1.115,"maeMean":1.115,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.415,"empiricalMass":0.415,"logScore":0.8794767587514388},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.34005,"mean":0.79,"median":1,"bias":0.79,"maeMean":0.79,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.445,"empiricalMass":0.445,"logScore":0.8096809968158968},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.79535,"mean":1.44,"median":1,"bias":1.44,"maeMean":1.44,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.245,"empiricalMass":0.245,"logScore":1.40649706843741},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.22999999999999998,"mean":1.17,"median":0,"bias":1.17,"maeMean":1.17,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.625,"empiricalMass":0.625,"logScore":0.4700036292457356}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.46,"1":0.29,"2":0.125,"3":0.05,"4":0.02,"5":0.035,"6":0.015,"7":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.61,"1":0.3,"2":0.055,"3":0.03,"4":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.415,"1":0.305,"2":0.135,"3":0.08,"4":0.03,"5":0.03,"6":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.445,"1":0.385,"2":0.115,"3":0.045,"4":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.245,"1":0.32,"2":0.255,"3":0.12,"4":0.05,"5":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.625,"1":0.155,"2":0.075,"3":0.055,"4":0.025,"5":0.015,"6":0.01,"7":0.005,"8":0.005,"9":0.005,"10":0.01,"12":0.01,"25":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1756252800000,"validUntil":1756339200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":2,"actual":1,"trainingCount":6452,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2025","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.3476999999999999,"mean":1.71,"median":1,"bias":0.71,"maeMean":0.71,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":6,"coverage":true,"width":6,"pitLower":0.34,"pitUpper":0.63,"empiricalMass":0.29,"logScore":1.2378743560016174},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.21494999999999997,"mean":1.16,"median":1,"bias":0.15999999999999992,"maeMean":0.15999999999999992,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.335,"pitUpper":0.71,"empiricalMass":0.375,"logScore":0.9808292530117262},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.388825,"mean":1.645,"median":1,"bias":0.645,"maeMean":0.645,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":6,"coverage":true,"width":6,"pitLower":0.36,"pitUpper":0.58,"empiricalMass":0.22,"logScore":1.5141277326297755},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.3045,"mean":1.55,"median":1,"bias":0.55,"maeMean":0.55,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.205,"pitUpper":0.54,"empiricalMass":0.335,"logScore":1.0936247471570706},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.3894000000000001,"mean":1.72,"median":2,"bias":0.72,"maeMean":0.72,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.16,"pitUpper":0.445,"empiricalMass":0.285,"logScore":1.2552660987134867},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.8104250000000002,"mean":1.835,"median":0,"bias":0.835,"maeMean":0.835,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":12,"coverage":true,"width":12,"pitLower":0.84,"pitUpper":0.89,"empiricalMass":0.05,"logScore":2.995732273553991}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.34,"1":0.29,"2":0.14,"3":0.075,"4":0.05,"5":0.045,"6":0.015,"7":0.015,"8":0.015,"11":0.01,"13":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.335,"1":0.375,"2":0.165,"3":0.075,"4":0.03,"5":0.01,"6":0.01},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.36,"1":0.22,"2":0.195,"3":0.08,"4":0.065,"5":0.025,"6":0.02,"7":0.015,"8":0.015,"13":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.205,"1":0.335,"2":0.24,"3":0.175,"4":0.03,"6":0.015},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.16,"1":0.285,"2":0.335,"3":0.135,"4":0.075,"5":0.005,"7":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.84,"1":0.05,"2":0.005,"3":0.005,"4":0.005,"5":0.005,"8":0.005,"9":0.01,"10":0.01,"11":0.005,"12":0.02,"15":0.005,"19":0.005,"23":0.005,"26":0.005,"27":0.01,"46":0.005,"55":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1756252800000,"validUntil":1756339200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":3,"actual":0,"trainingCount":6452,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2025","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.03337499999999999,"mean":0.245,"median":0,"bias":0.245,"maeMean":0.245,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.825,"empiricalMass":0.825,"logScore":0.19237189264745613},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.009050000000000002,"mean":0.1,"median":0,"bias":0.1,"maeMean":0.1,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.905,"empiricalMass":0.905,"logScore":0.0998203352822109},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.026524999999999993,"mean":0.195,"median":0,"bias":0.195,"maeMean":0.195,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.84,"empiricalMass":0.84,"logScore":0.1743533871447778},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.044749999999999984,"mean":0.24,"median":0,"bias":0.24,"maeMean":0.24,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.79,"empiricalMass":0.79,"logScore":0.23572233352106983},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.09812499999999996,"mean":0.355,"median":0,"bias":0.355,"maeMean":0.355,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.69,"empiricalMass":0.69,"logScore":0.37106368139083207},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.0017749999999999988,"mean":0.095,"median":0,"bias":0.095,"maeMean":0.095,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.965,"empiricalMass":0.965,"logScore":0.03562717764315116}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.825,"1":0.125,"2":0.035,"3":0.01,"4":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.905,"1":0.09,"2":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.84,"1":0.13,"2":0.025,"3":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.79,"1":0.185,"2":0.02,"3":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.69,"1":0.265,"2":0.045},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.965,"1":0.02,"2":0.005,"4":0.005,"9":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1756252800000,"validUntil":1756339200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":6452,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2025","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.0006499999999999978,"mean":0.03,"median":0,"bias":0.03,"maeMean":0.03,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.975,"empiricalMass":0.975,"logScore":0.025317807984289897},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.0002249999999999995,"mean":0.015,"median":0,"bias":0.015,"maeMean":0.015,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.985,"empiricalMass":0.985,"logScore":0.015113637810048184},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.00040000000000000105,"mean":0.02,"median":0,"bias":0.02,"maeMean":0.02,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.98,"empiricalMass":0.98,"logScore":0.020202707317519466},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.000899999999999998,"mean":0.03,"median":0,"bias":0.03,"maeMean":0.03,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.97,"empiricalMass":0.97,"logScore":0.030459207484708574},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.002050000000000003,"mean":0.05,"median":0,"bias":0.05,"maeMean":0.05,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.955,"empiricalMass":0.955,"logScore":0.046043938501406846},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.0006499999999999978,"mean":0.04,"median":0,"bias":0.04,"maeMean":0.04,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.98,"empiricalMass":0.98,"logScore":0.020202707317519466}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.975,"1":0.02,"2":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.985,"1":0.015},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.98,"1":0.02},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.97,"1":0.03},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.955,"1":0.04,"2":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.98,"1":0.005,"2":0.01,"3":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1756252800000,"validUntil":1756857600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":2,"actual":4,"trainingCount":6452,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2025","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":6.0329749999999995,"mean":16.095,"median":12,"bias":12.094999999999999,"maeMean":12.094999999999999,"maeMedian":8,"low":4,"high":43,"coverage":true,"width":39,"pitLower":0.045,"pitUpper":0.085,"empiricalMass":0.04,"logScore":3.2188758248682006},"rollingETAS":{"crps":2.1652000000000005,"mean":7.87,"median":7,"bias":3.87,"maeMean":3.87,"maeMedian":3,"low":3,"high":14,"coverage":true,"width":11,"pitLower":0.095,"pitUpper":0.16,"empiricalMass":0.065,"logScore":2.7333680090865},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":6.305275000000001,"mean":14.495,"median":13,"bias":10.495,"maeMean":10.495,"maeMedian":9,"low":5,"high":30,"coverage":false,"width":25,"pitLower":0.025,"pitUpper":0.03,"empiricalMass":0.005,"logScore":5.298317366548036},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":5.081425,"mean":10.815,"median":11,"bias":6.8149999999999995,"maeMean":6.8149999999999995,"maeMedian":7,"low":6,"high":17,"coverage":false,"width":11,"pitLower":0.005,"pitUpper":0.015,"empiricalMass":0.01,"logScore":4.605170185988091},"recentPoisson":{"crps":5.937475,"mean":11.825,"median":12,"bias":7.824999999999999,"maeMean":7.824999999999999,"maeMedian":8,"low":7,"high":18,"coverage":false,"width":11,"pitLower":0.005,"pitUpper":0.005,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":3.430275,"mean":15.835,"median":0,"bias":11.835,"maeMean":11.835,"maeMedian":4,"low":0,"high":87,"coverage":true,"width":87,"pitLower":0.625,"pitUpper":0.67,"empiricalMass":0.045,"logScore":3.101092789211817}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"2":0.015,"3":0.03,"4":0.04,"5":0.035,"6":0.03,"7":0.035,"8":0.05,"9":0.085,"10":0.09,"11":0.055,"12":0.06,"13":0.045,"14":0.03,"15":0.035,"16":0.04,"17":0.03,"18":0.035,"19":0.035,"20":0.03,"21":0.01,"22":0.01,"23":0.015,"24":0.015,"25":0.02,"26":0.005,"30":0.005,"31":0.005,"32":0.005,"33":0.01,"34":0.005,"35":0.005,"36":0.005,"37":0.005,"41":0.01,"42":0.005,"43":0.02,"46":0.005,"49":0.015,"55":0.005,"70":0.005,"77":0.005,"105":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"1":0.005,"2":0.035,"3":0.055,"4":0.065,"5":0.115,"6":0.125,"7":0.11,"8":0.105,"9":0.095,"10":0.065,"11":0.07,"12":0.07,"13":0.015,"14":0.025,"15":0.015,"16":0.005,"17":0.005,"18":0.01,"19":0.005,"22":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"1":0.005,"2":0.01,"3":0.01,"4":0.005,"5":0.05,"6":0.025,"7":0.07,"8":0.055,"9":0.055,"10":0.055,"11":0.08,"12":0.055,"13":0.08,"14":0.04,"15":0.045,"16":0.05,"17":0.04,"18":0.04,"19":0.03,"20":0.025,"21":0.035,"22":0.015,"23":0.005,"24":0.015,"25":0.015,"26":0.01,"27":0.015,"29":0.005,"30":0.01,"31":0.005,"32":0.005,"33":0.005,"36":0.015,"37":0.005,"42":0.005,"52":0.01},"expandingPoisson":{"3":0.005,"4":0.01,"5":0.025,"6":0.04,"7":0.045,"8":0.095,"9":0.12,"10":0.125,"11":0.16,"12":0.14,"13":0.07,"14":0.06,"15":0.025,"16":0.02,"17":0.01,"18":0.025,"19":0.015,"20":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"2":0.005,"5":0.005,"6":0.035,"7":0.06,"8":0.05,"9":0.085,"10":0.14,"11":0.115,"12":0.105,"13":0.1,"14":0.115,"15":0.04,"16":0.045,"17":0.02,"18":0.045,"19":0.02,"20":0.005,"21":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.535,"1":0.025,"2":0.035,"3":0.03,"4":0.045,"5":0.01,"6":0.01,"7":0.025,"9":0.005,"10":0.005,"11":0.025,"12":0.005,"14":0.015,"15":0.005,"16":0.005,"19":0.01,"20":0.005,"25":0.005,"28":0.005,"29":0.01,"30":0.02,"31":0.005,"32":0.01,"33":0.005,"36":0.005,"37":0.005,"39":0.005,"40":0.005,"45":0.01,"48":0.005,"49":0.005,"50":0.015,"51":0.005,"54":0.005,"59":0.005,"64":0.005,"65":0.005,"66":0.005,"83":0.005,"87":0.005,"89":0.005,"90":0.005,"92":0.005,"111":0.005,"116":0.005,"120":0.005,"134":0.005,"170":0.005,"187":0.005,"334":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1756252800000,"validUntil":1756857600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":3,"actual":0,"trainingCount":6452,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2025","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.95845,"mean":2.21,"median":1,"bias":2.21,"maeMean":2.21,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":7,"coverage":true,"width":7,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.255,"empiricalMass":0.255,"logScore":1.3664917338237108},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.4499249999999999,"mean":1.015,"median":1,"bias":1.015,"maeMean":1.015,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.395,"empiricalMass":0.395,"logScore":0.9288695140810151},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.8473999999999999,"mean":1.72,"median":1,"bias":1.72,"maeMean":1.72,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.24,"empiricalMass":0.24,"logScore":1.4271163556401458},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.8310500000000001,"mean":1.53,"median":1,"bias":1.53,"maeMean":1.53,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.26,"empiricalMass":0.26,"logScore":1.3470736479666092},"recentPoisson":{"crps":1.5297,"mean":2.41,"median":2,"bias":2.41,"maeMean":2.41,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.09,"empiricalMass":0.09,"logScore":2.4079456086518722},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.27485000000000026,"mean":2.85,"median":0,"bias":2.85,"maeMean":2.85,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":15,"coverage":true,"width":15,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.78,"empiricalMass":0.78,"logScore":0.2484613592984996}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.255,"1":0.28,"2":0.13,"3":0.12,"4":0.1,"5":0.035,"6":0.02,"7":0.01,"8":0.02,"10":0.01,"12":0.005,"13":0.005,"14":0.005,"18":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.395,"1":0.33,"2":0.19,"3":0.055,"4":0.02,"5":0.005,"7":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.24,"1":0.33,"2":0.19,"3":0.1,"4":0.07,"5":0.02,"6":0.035,"7":0.01,"10":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.26,"1":0.26,"2":0.26,"3":0.155,"4":0.045,"5":0.015,"6":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.09,"1":0.245,"2":0.23,"3":0.205,"4":0.105,"5":0.085,"6":0.035,"7":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.78,"1":0.01,"2":0.02,"3":0.04,"4":0.01,"5":0.015,"6":0.01,"7":0.005,"8":0.02,"9":0.005,"10":0.015,"11":0.005,"13":0.005,"14":0.005,"15":0.01,"21":0.005,"22":0.005,"25":0.01,"33":0.005,"37":0.005,"42":0.005,"64":0.005,"86":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1756252800000,"validUntil":1756857600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":6452,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2025","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.05377499999999999,"mean":0.295,"median":0,"bias":0.295,"maeMean":0.295,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.775,"empiricalMass":0.775,"logScore":0.25489224962879004},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.009050000000000002,"mean":0.1,"median":0,"bias":0.1,"maeMean":0.1,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.905,"empiricalMass":0.905,"logScore":0.0998203352822109},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.031024999999999997,"mean":0.195,"median":0,"bias":0.195,"maeMean":0.195,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.825,"empiricalMass":0.825,"logScore":0.19237189264745613},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.04265000000000002,"mean":0.23,"median":0,"bias":0.23,"maeMean":0.23,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.795,"empiricalMass":0.795,"logScore":0.2294131643278051},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.08052500000000001,"mean":0.335,"median":0,"bias":0.335,"maeMean":0.335,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.72,"empiricalMass":0.72,"logScore":0.3285040669720361},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.02487499999999998,"mean":0.295,"median":0,"bias":0.295,"maeMean":0.295,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.86,"empiricalMass":0.86,"logScore":0.15082288973458366}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.775,"1":0.17,"2":0.045,"3":0.005,"4":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.905,"1":0.09,"2":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.825,"1":0.155,"2":0.02},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.795,"1":0.18,"2":0.025},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.72,"1":0.235,"2":0.035,"3":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.86,"1":0.085,"2":0.02,"3":0.015,"5":0.01,"7":0.005,"8":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1756252800000,"validUntil":1758844800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":2,"actual":24,"trainingCount":6452,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2025","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":28.876425,"mean":69.505,"median":62.5,"bias":45.504999999999995,"maeMean":45.504999999999995,"maeMedian":38.5,"low":33,"high":139,"coverage":false,"width":106,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"rollingETAS":{"crps":5.9383,"mean":34.27,"median":34,"bias":10.270000000000003,"maeMean":10.270000000000003,"maeMedian":10,"low":20,"high":50,"coverage":true,"width":30,"pitLower":0.11,"pitUpper":0.155,"empiricalMass":0.045,"logScore":3.101092789211817},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":29.25455,"mean":68.26,"median":61,"bias":44.260000000000005,"maeMean":44.260000000000005,"maeMedian":37,"low":32,"high":128,"coverage":false,"width":96,"pitLower":0.005,"pitUpper":0.01,"empiricalMass":0.005,"logScore":5.298317366548036},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":18.099400000000003,"mean":45.78,"median":46,"bias":21.78,"maeMean":21.78,"maeMedian":22,"low":34,"high":56,"coverage":false,"width":22,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentPoisson":{"crps":24.047874999999998,"mean":52.055,"median":52,"bias":28.055,"maeMean":28.055,"maeMedian":28,"low":40,"high":63,"coverage":false,"width":23,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":11.69115,"mean":56.22,"median":24.5,"bias":32.22,"maeMean":32.22,"maeMedian":0.5,"low":0,"high":193,"coverage":true,"width":193,"pitLower":0.49,"pitUpper":0.5,"empiricalMass":0.01,"logScore":4.605170185988091}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"28":0.01,"29":0.005,"30":0.005,"31":0.01,"32":0.005,"33":0.015,"34":0.005,"35":0.04,"36":0.02,"37":0.01,"38":0.01,"39":0.02,"40":0.01,"41":0.01,"42":0.025,"43":0.01,"44":0.015,"45":0.005,"46":0.005,"47":0.005,"48":0.02,"49":0.02,"50":0.005,"51":0.01,"52":0.015,"53":0.035,"54":0.02,"55":0.02,"56":0.01,"57":0.02,"58":0.025,"59":0.02,"60":0.025,"61":0.01,"62":0.005,"63":0.01,"64":0.02,"65":0.01,"66":0.02,"68":0.015,"69":0.005,"70":0.01,"71":0.015,"72":0.025,"73":0.025,"74":0.02,"77":0.015,"78":0.015,"79":0.02,"80":0.015,"81":0.01,"82":0.005,"83":0.01,"85":0.01,"87":0.01,"88":0.015,"89":0.015,"91":0.01,"93":0.005,"94":0.01,"95":0.005,"96":0.005,"97":0.015,"99":0.01,"100":0.005,"101":0.005,"102":0.005,"104":0.005,"105":0.01,"106":0.005,"111":0.005,"113":0.005,"115":0.005,"120":0.005,"126":0.005,"129":0.005,"132":0.005,"139":0.005,"140":0.005,"142":0.005,"152":0.01,"156":0.005,"159":0.005,"186":0.005,"189":0.005,"191":0.005,"201":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"16":0.01,"17":0.005,"19":0.015,"20":0.02,"21":0.01,"22":0.015,"23":0.035,"24":0.045,"25":0.025,"26":0.035,"27":0.01,"28":0.035,"29":0.055,"30":0.045,"31":0.055,"32":0.04,"33":0.04,"34":0.055,"35":0.025,"36":0.05,"37":0.055,"38":0.015,"39":0.045,"40":0.02,"41":0.035,"42":0.03,"43":0.03,"44":0.035,"45":0.01,"46":0.01,"47":0.02,"48":0.01,"49":0.005,"50":0.015,"53":0.005,"54":0.005,"55":0.005,"58":0.01,"59":0.01,"69":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"21":0.005,"24":0.005,"25":0.01,"29":0.005,"30":0.005,"31":0.015,"32":0.005,"33":0.005,"34":0.005,"35":0.005,"36":0.005,"37":0.015,"38":0.01,"39":0.02,"40":0.01,"41":0.015,"42":0.02,"43":0.015,"45":0.015,"46":0.02,"47":0.01,"48":0.01,"49":0.025,"50":0.015,"51":0.015,"52":0.025,"53":0.025,"54":0.015,"55":0.01,"56":0.04,"57":0.005,"58":0.015,"59":0.02,"60":0.02,"61":0.045,"62":0.005,"63":0.005,"64":0.015,"65":0.035,"66":0.01,"67":0.02,"68":0.005,"69":0.02,"70":0.01,"71":0.025,"72":0.01,"74":0.005,"75":0.02,"76":0.015,"77":0.005,"78":0.01,"79":0.01,"80":0.01,"81":0.01,"82":0.01,"83":0.01,"84":0.005,"85":0.005,"86":0.01,"87":0.015,"88":0.01,"89":0.01,"90":0.01,"93":0.01,"94":0.005,"95":0.005,"97":0.01,"98":0.015,"99":0.005,"101":0.005,"103":0.005,"106":0.005,"107":0.01,"111":0.005,"114":0.005,"117":0.005,"122":0.005,"124":0.005,"125":0.01,"128":0.005,"129":0.005,"130":0.01,"135":0.005,"136":0.005,"137":0.005,"140":0.005,"150":0.005,"162":0.005,"197":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"30":0.005,"31":0.005,"32":0.01,"33":0.025,"34":0.005,"35":0.005,"36":0.02,"37":0.04,"38":0.03,"39":0.02,"40":0.04,"41":0.06,"42":0.05,"43":0.04,"44":0.075,"45":0.045,"46":0.07,"47":0.035,"48":0.07,"49":0.045,"50":0.065,"51":0.06,"52":0.035,"53":0.04,"54":0.025,"55":0.02,"56":0.015,"57":0.01,"58":0.005,"59":0.005,"60":0.01,"61":0.005,"63":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"36":0.005,"37":0.01,"38":0.005,"39":0.02,"40":0.025,"41":0.015,"42":0.01,"43":0.02,"44":0.02,"45":0.06,"46":0.04,"47":0.07,"48":0.03,"49":0.055,"50":0.025,"51":0.05,"52":0.06,"53":0.055,"54":0.055,"55":0.035,"56":0.025,"57":0.07,"58":0.06,"59":0.03,"60":0.03,"61":0.02,"62":0.02,"63":0.04,"64":0.02,"65":0.005,"66":0.005,"67":0.005,"75":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.05,"1":0.04,"2":0.015,"3":0.04,"4":0.015,"5":0.045,"6":0.015,"7":0.025,"8":0.01,"9":0.035,"11":0.035,"12":0.005,"13":0.02,"14":0.01,"15":0.035,"16":0.025,"17":0.005,"18":0.01,"19":0.015,"20":0.015,"21":0.005,"22":0.01,"23":0.01,"24":0.01,"25":0.02,"27":0.015,"28":0.015,"29":0.005,"30":0.01,"32":0.01,"33":0.005,"34":0.005,"35":0.01,"36":0.005,"37":0.005,"39":0.01,"40":0.015,"41":0.005,"42":0.005,"44":0.015,"45":0.005,"47":0.01,"50":0.005,"55":0.005,"56":0.005,"57":0.005,"58":0.005,"59":0.005,"61":0.005,"62":0.01,"64":0.005,"68":0.01,"69":0.005,"70":0.005,"73":0.015,"76":0.005,"77":0.005,"78":0.005,"82":0.005,"83":0.005,"84":0.005,"85":0.005,"86":0.01,"87":0.005,"103":0.01,"105":0.005,"106":0.005,"113":0.01,"115":0.005,"117":0.01,"123":0.005,"124":0.005,"129":0.005,"131":0.005,"133":0.005,"134":0.005,"136":0.005,"140":0.005,"142":0.005,"147":0.005,"151":0.005,"155":0.005,"166":0.005,"172":0.005,"174":0.01,"175":0.005,"178":0.005,"186":0.005,"193":0.005,"210":0.005,"225":0.005,"229":0.005,"231":0.005,"292":0.005,"303":0.005,"315":0.005,"380":0.005,"467":0.005,"545":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1756252800000,"validUntil":1758844800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":3,"actual":1,"trainingCount":6452,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2025","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":4.330675,"mean":8.475,"median":7,"bias":7.475,"maeMean":7.475,"maeMedian":6,"low":2,"high":21,"coverage":false,"width":19,"pitLower":0.005,"pitUpper":0.045,"empiricalMass":0.04,"logScore":3.2188758248682006},"rollingETAS":{"crps":2.21575,"mean":4.62,"median":4,"bias":3.62,"maeMean":3.62,"maeMedian":3,"low":1,"high":9,"coverage":true,"width":8,"pitLower":0.015,"pitUpper":0.065,"empiricalMass":0.05,"logScore":2.995732273553991},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":4.561875000000001,"mean":8.235,"median":8,"bias":7.234999999999999,"maeMean":7.234999999999999,"maeMedian":7,"low":2,"high":18,"coverage":false,"width":16,"pitLower":0.02,"pitUpper":0.045,"empiricalMass":0.025,"logScore":3.6888794541139363},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":4.17035,"mean":6.58,"median":7,"bias":5.58,"maeMean":5.58,"maeMedian":6,"low":3,"high":11,"coverage":false,"width":8,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.015,"empiricalMass":0.015,"logScore":4.199705077879927},"recentPoisson":{"crps":7.208324999999999,"mean":9.985,"median":10,"bias":8.985,"maeMean":8.985,"maeMedian":9,"low":4,"high":16,"coverage":false,"width":12,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":1.7788250000000003,"mean":9.245,"median":1,"bias":8.245,"maeMean":8.245,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":53,"coverage":true,"width":53,"pitLower":0.465,"pitUpper":0.555,"empiricalMass":0.09,"logScore":2.4079456086518722}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.005,"1":0.04,"2":0.07,"3":0.075,"4":0.095,"5":0.115,"6":0.06,"7":0.045,"8":0.085,"9":0.065,"10":0.04,"11":0.06,"12":0.045,"13":0.03,"14":0.02,"15":0.055,"16":0.015,"17":0.01,"19":0.01,"20":0.005,"21":0.005,"22":0.005,"23":0.005,"24":0.01,"25":0.005,"26":0.01,"27":0.005,"28":0.005,"30":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.015,"1":0.05,"2":0.155,"3":0.195,"4":0.14,"5":0.12,"6":0.09,"7":0.095,"8":0.045,"9":0.05,"10":0.015,"11":0.015,"12":0.01,"13":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.02,"1":0.025,"2":0.055,"3":0.06,"4":0.1,"5":0.055,"6":0.095,"7":0.08,"8":0.09,"9":0.065,"10":0.08,"11":0.065,"12":0.03,"13":0.03,"14":0.045,"15":0.02,"16":0.005,"17":0.02,"18":0.015,"19":0.02,"21":0.01,"22":0.01,"23":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"1":0.015,"2":0.02,"3":0.05,"4":0.135,"5":0.155,"6":0.105,"7":0.205,"8":0.12,"9":0.06,"10":0.07,"11":0.02,"12":0.025,"13":0.01,"14":0.005,"15":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"2":0.005,"3":0.02,"4":0.025,"5":0.02,"6":0.05,"7":0.065,"8":0.135,"9":0.15,"10":0.14,"11":0.09,"12":0.1,"13":0.04,"14":0.08,"15":0.02,"16":0.04,"17":0.005,"18":0.01,"19":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.465,"1":0.09,"2":0.055,"3":0.035,"4":0.04,"5":0.02,"6":0.015,"7":0.005,"8":0.025,"9":0.015,"10":0.01,"11":0.005,"12":0.01,"14":0.015,"15":0.01,"16":0.01,"17":0.01,"19":0.015,"20":0.01,"21":0.01,"22":0.01,"23":0.005,"24":0.005,"26":0.01,"27":0.005,"28":0.005,"29":0.005,"30":0.005,"36":0.005,"39":0.005,"40":0.01,"43":0.005,"53":0.01,"57":0.01,"71":0.005,"77":0.005,"79":0.01,"96":0.005,"110":0.005,"125":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1756252800000,"validUntil":1758844800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":6452,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2025","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.386675,"mean":1.065,"median":1,"bias":1.065,"maeMean":1.065,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.45,"empiricalMass":0.45,"logScore":0.7985076962177716},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.16545000000000004,"mean":0.55,"median":0,"bias":0.55,"maeMean":0.55,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.615,"empiricalMass":0.615,"logScore":0.4861330111756192},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.37539999999999996,"mean":1,"median":1,"bias":1,"maeMean":1,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.46,"empiricalMass":0.46,"logScore":0.7765287894989963},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.4330750000000001,"mean":0.935,"median":1,"bias":0.935,"maeMean":0.935,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.39,"empiricalMass":0.39,"logScore":0.941608539858445},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.6182,"mean":1.16,"median":1,"bias":1.16,"maeMean":1.16,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.28,"empiricalMass":0.28,"logScore":1.2729656758128873},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.2699499999999999,"mean":1.44,"median":0,"bias":1.44,"maeMean":1.44,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":7,"coverage":true,"width":7,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.615,"empiricalMass":0.615,"logScore":0.4861330111756192}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.45,"1":0.3,"2":0.13,"3":0.045,"4":0.045,"5":0.005,"6":0.015,"7":0.005,"8":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.615,"1":0.26,"2":0.085,"3":0.04},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.46,"1":0.28,"2":0.145,"3":0.07,"4":0.015,"5":0.025,"7":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.39,"1":0.375,"2":0.16,"3":0.065,"4":0.005,"5":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.28,"1":0.42,"2":0.21,"3":0.05,"4":0.03,"5":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.615,"1":0.15,"2":0.065,"3":0.06,"4":0.02,"5":0.02,"6":0.015,"7":0.005,"8":0.01,"10":0.005,"11":0.01,"12":0.01,"20":0.005,"21":0.005,"22":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1758844800000,"validUntil":1758931200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":2,"actual":2,"trainingCount":6476,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2025","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.6863499999999999,"mean":1.23,"median":1,"bias":-0.77,"maeMean":0.77,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.69,"pitUpper":0.855,"empiricalMass":0.165,"logScore":1.8018098050815563},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.8514250000000001,"mean":0.935,"median":1,"bias":-1.065,"maeMean":1.065,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.78,"pitUpper":0.9,"empiricalMass":0.12,"logScore":2.120263536200091},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.5692499999999999,"mean":1.49,"median":1,"bias":-0.51,"maeMean":0.51,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.625,"pitUpper":0.81,"empiricalMass":0.185,"logScore":1.6873994539038122},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.383475,"mean":1.525,"median":1,"bias":-0.4750000000000001,"maeMean":0.4750000000000001,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.56,"pitUpper":0.81,"empiricalMass":0.25,"logScore":1.3862943611198906},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.2904,"mean":1.68,"median":2,"bias":-0.32000000000000006,"maeMean":0.32000000000000006,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.455,"pitUpper":0.785,"empiricalMass":0.33,"logScore":1.1086626245216111},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":1.5543,"mean":1.09,"median":0,"bias":-0.9099999999999999,"maeMean":0.9099999999999999,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":9,"coverage":true,"width":9,"pitLower":0.89,"pitUpper":0.9,"empiricalMass":0.01,"logScore":4.605170185988091}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.42,"1":0.27,"2":0.165,"3":0.05,"4":0.04,"5":0.03,"6":0.015,"7":0.005,"9":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.48,"1":0.3,"2":0.12,"3":0.055,"4":0.025,"5":0.01,"6":0.005,"10":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.355,"1":0.27,"2":0.185,"3":0.095,"4":0.025,"5":0.035,"6":0.01,"7":0.005,"8":0.01,"11":0.005,"12":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.175,"1":0.385,"2":0.25,"3":0.135,"4":0.045,"5":0.005,"6":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.18,"1":0.275,"2":0.33,"3":0.15,"4":0.045,"5":0.01,"6":0.005,"7":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.845,"1":0.045,"2":0.01,"3":0.01,"4":0.01,"5":0.015,"6":0.005,"9":0.02,"10":0.005,"12":0.005,"15":0.005,"17":0.005,"18":0.01,"19":0.005,"25":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1758844800000,"validUntil":1758931200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":3,"actual":1,"trainingCount":6476,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2025","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.7836000000000001,"mean":0.15,"median":0,"bias":-0.85,"maeMean":0.85,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0.885,"pitUpper":0.985,"empiricalMass":0.1,"logScore":2.3025850929940455},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.8742749999999999,"mean":0.075,"median":0,"bias":-0.925,"maeMean":0.925,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0.935,"pitUpper":0.995,"empiricalMass":0.06,"logScore":2.8134107167600364},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.731425,"mean":0.165,"median":0,"bias":-0.835,"maeMean":0.835,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0.855,"pitUpper":0.98,"empiricalMass":0.125,"logScore":2.0794415416798357},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.71425,"mean":0.17,"median":0,"bias":-0.83,"maeMean":0.83,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0.845,"pitUpper":0.985,"empiricalMass":0.14,"logScore":1.9661128563728327},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.53415,"mean":0.31,"median":0,"bias":-0.69,"maeMean":0.69,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0.73,"pitUpper":0.965,"empiricalMass":0.235,"logScore":1.448169764837978},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.8647750000000001,"mean":0.355,"median":0,"bias":-0.645,"maeMean":0.645,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0.925,"pitUpper":0.95,"empiricalMass":0.025,"logScore":3.6888794541139363}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.885,"1":0.1,"2":0.005,"3":0.005,"5":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.935,"1":0.06,"3":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.855,"1":0.125,"2":0.02},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.845,"1":0.14,"2":0.015},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.73,"1":0.235,"2":0.03,"3":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.925,"1":0.025,"3":0.01,"4":0.01,"5":0.005,"6":0.005,"7":0.005,"9":0.01,"16":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1758844800000,"validUntil":1758931200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":6476,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2025","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.0000999999999999994,"mean":0.01,"median":0,"bias":0.01,"maeMean":0.01,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.99,"empiricalMass":0.99,"logScore":0.01005033585350145},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.00002499999999999985,"mean":0.005,"median":0,"bias":0.005,"maeMean":0.005,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.995,"empiricalMass":0.995,"logScore":0.005012541823544286},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.00002499999999999985,"mean":0.005,"median":0,"bias":0.005,"maeMean":0.005,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.995,"empiricalMass":0.995,"logScore":0.005012541823544286},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.00040000000000000105,"mean":0.02,"median":0,"bias":0.02,"maeMean":0.02,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.98,"empiricalMass":0.98,"logScore":0.020202707317519466},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.0016250000000000014,"mean":0.045,"median":0,"bias":0.045,"maeMean":0.045,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.96,"empiricalMass":0.96,"logScore":0.040821994520255166},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.0013000000000000095,"mean":0.07,"median":0,"bias":0.07,"maeMean":0.07,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.97,"empiricalMass":0.97,"logScore":0.030459207484708574}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.99,"1":0.01},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.995,"1":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.995,"1":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.98,"1":0.02},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.96,"1":0.035,"2":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.97,"1":0.015,"2":0.005,"3":0.005,"6":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1758844800000,"validUntil":1759449600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":2,"actual":25,"trainingCount":6476,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2025","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":10.399525,"mean":12.285,"median":9.5,"bias":-12.715,"maeMean":12.715,"maeMedian":15.5,"low":4,"high":29,"coverage":true,"width":25,"pitLower":0.9,"pitUpper":0.905,"empiricalMass":0.005,"logScore":5.298317366548036},"rollingETAS":{"crps":15.567149999999998,"mean":7.51,"median":7,"bias":-17.490000000000002,"maeMean":17.490000000000002,"maeMedian":18,"low":3,"high":13,"coverage":false,"width":10,"pitLower":1,"pitUpper":1,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":9.9356,"mean":12.11,"median":10.5,"bias":-12.89,"maeMean":12.89,"maeMedian":14.5,"low":3,"high":28,"coverage":true,"width":25,"pitLower":0.935,"pitUpper":0.935,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":12.815774999999999,"mean":10.425,"median":10,"bias":-14.575,"maeMean":14.575,"maeMedian":15,"low":6,"high":16,"coverage":false,"width":10,"pitLower":1,"pitUpper":1,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentPoisson":{"crps":11.2118,"mean":12.1,"median":12,"bias":-12.9,"maeMean":12.9,"maeMedian":13,"low":7,"high":17,"coverage":false,"width":10,"pitLower":1,"pitUpper":1,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":13.191275000000001,"mean":12.725,"median":2,"bias":-12.275,"maeMean":12.275,"maeMedian":23,"low":0,"high":65,"coverage":true,"width":65,"pitLower":0.855,"pitUpper":0.86,"empiricalMass":0.005,"logScore":5.298317366548036}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"2":0.015,"3":0.025,"4":0.09,"5":0.08,"6":0.09,"7":0.07,"8":0.075,"9":0.055,"10":0.09,"11":0.035,"12":0.035,"13":0.035,"14":0.03,"15":0.04,"16":0.07,"17":0.02,"19":0.015,"20":0.01,"22":0.005,"23":0.005,"24":0.01,"25":0.005,"26":0.01,"27":0.02,"28":0.005,"29":0.015,"31":0.005,"33":0.01,"35":0.005,"36":0.005,"50":0.005,"58":0.005,"76":0.005,"89":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.01,"1":0.01,"2":0.025,"3":0.06,"4":0.08,"5":0.115,"6":0.125,"7":0.14,"8":0.075,"9":0.1,"10":0.055,"11":0.1,"12":0.035,"13":0.02,"14":0.025,"15":0.01,"20":0.005,"21":0.005,"22":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"2":0.035,"3":0.045,"4":0.025,"5":0.055,"6":0.06,"7":0.085,"8":0.08,"9":0.06,"10":0.055,"11":0.09,"12":0.07,"13":0.03,"14":0.045,"15":0.025,"16":0.02,"17":0.03,"18":0.015,"19":0.03,"20":0.015,"21":0.005,"22":0.035,"23":0.015,"24":0.01,"27":0.01,"28":0.015,"30":0.005,"31":0.01,"32":0.005,"33":0.005,"37":0.005,"53":0.01},"expandingPoisson":{"3":0.01,"4":0.025,"5":0.01,"6":0.06,"7":0.055,"8":0.105,"9":0.125,"10":0.18,"11":0.08,"12":0.105,"13":0.055,"14":0.065,"15":0.065,"16":0.035,"17":0.015,"18":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"4":0.005,"5":0.005,"6":0.025,"7":0.02,"8":0.045,"9":0.11,"10":0.085,"11":0.13,"12":0.13,"13":0.13,"14":0.13,"15":0.055,"16":0.06,"17":0.03,"18":0.015,"19":0.015,"20":0.005,"23":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.38,"1":0.1,"2":0.03,"3":0.035,"4":0.025,"5":0.04,"6":0.035,"7":0.01,"8":0.02,"9":0.01,"10":0.015,"11":0.03,"12":0.01,"13":0.02,"14":0.02,"17":0.01,"18":0.02,"19":0.005,"20":0.01,"21":0.005,"22":0.015,"23":0.005,"24":0.005,"25":0.005,"26":0.005,"27":0.01,"28":0.01,"29":0.005,"30":0.005,"31":0.005,"34":0.005,"36":0.005,"39":0.005,"41":0.005,"43":0.005,"44":0.005,"56":0.005,"58":0.005,"60":0.005,"65":0.01,"67":0.005,"70":0.005,"81":0.005,"92":0.005,"114":0.005,"119":0.005,"124":0.005,"157":0.005,"183":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1758844800000,"validUntil":1759449600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":3,"actual":4,"trainingCount":6476,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2025","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":1.9599,"mean":1.57,"median":1,"bias":-2.4299999999999997,"maeMean":2.4299999999999997,"maeMedian":3,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.885,"pitUpper":0.925,"empiricalMass":0.04,"logScore":3.2188758248682006},"rollingETAS":{"crps":2.641375,"mean":0.855,"median":1,"bias":-3.145,"maeMean":3.145,"maeMedian":3,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":false,"width":3,"pitLower":0.98,"pitUpper":0.99,"empiricalMass":0.01,"logScore":4.605170185988091},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":1.8343749999999999,"mean":1.565,"median":1,"bias":-2.435,"maeMean":2.435,"maeMedian":3,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.85,"pitUpper":0.915,"empiricalMass":0.065,"logScore":2.7333680090865},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":1.8316,"mean":1.59,"median":1,"bias":-2.41,"maeMean":2.41,"maeMedian":3,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.935,"pitUpper":0.98,"empiricalMass":0.045,"logScore":3.101092789211817},"recentPoisson":{"crps":1.2312249999999998,"mean":2.195,"median":2,"bias":-1.8050000000000002,"maeMean":1.8050000000000002,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.835,"pitUpper":0.92,"empiricalMass":0.085,"logScore":2.4651040224918206},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":2.7138000000000004,"mean":1.94,"median":0,"bias":-2.06,"maeMean":2.06,"maeMedian":4,"low":0,"high":12,"coverage":true,"width":12,"pitLower":0.87,"pitUpper":0.89,"empiricalMass":0.02,"logScore":3.912023005428146}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.36,"1":0.27,"2":0.17,"3":0.085,"4":0.04,"5":0.025,"6":0.025,"7":0.005,"8":0.005,"12":0.005,"13":0.005,"14":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.485,"1":0.295,"2":0.135,"3":0.065,"4":0.01,"5":0.005,"6":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.37,"1":0.27,"2":0.105,"3":0.105,"4":0.065,"5":0.035,"6":0.03,"7":0.005,"8":0.015},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.175,"1":0.36,"2":0.265,"3":0.135,"4":0.045,"5":0.01,"6":0.005,"7":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.115,"1":0.235,"2":0.275,"3":0.21,"4":0.085,"5":0.045,"6":0.03,"7":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.725,"1":0.09,"2":0.025,"3":0.03,"4":0.02,"5":0.01,"6":0.015,"7":0.01,"9":0.01,"10":0.01,"12":0.01,"13":0.005,"14":0.01,"15":0.005,"17":0.005,"21":0.005,"22":0.005,"51":0.005,"55":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1758844800000,"validUntil":1759449600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":4,"actual":2,"trainingCount":6476,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2025","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":1.725125,"mean":0.155,"median":0,"bias":-1.845,"maeMean":1.845,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":false,"width":1,"pitLower":0.975,"pitUpper":0.99,"empiricalMass":0.015,"logScore":4.199705077879927},"rollingETAS":{"crps":1.780225,"mean":0.115,"median":0,"bias":-1.885,"maeMean":1.885,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":false,"width":1,"pitLower":0.985,"pitUpper":1,"empiricalMass":0.015,"logScore":4.199705077879927},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":1.744625,"mean":0.135,"median":0,"bias":-1.865,"maeMean":1.865,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":false,"width":1,"pitLower":0.985,"pitUpper":1,"empiricalMass":0.015,"logScore":4.199705077879927},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":1.6634,"mean":0.18,"median":0,"bias":-1.82,"maeMean":1.82,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":false,"width":1,"pitLower":0.97,"pitUpper":1,"empiricalMass":0.03,"logScore":3.506557897319982},"recentPoisson":{"crps":1.4618499999999999,"mean":0.31,"median":0,"bias":-1.69,"maeMean":1.69,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":false,"width":1,"pitLower":0.96,"pitUpper":0.995,"empiricalMass":0.035,"logScore":3.3524072174927233},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":1.5848,"mean":0.41,"median":0,"bias":-1.59,"maeMean":1.59,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.915,"pitUpper":0.935,"empiricalMass":0.02,"logScore":3.912023005428146}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.88,"1":0.095,"2":0.015,"3":0.01},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.9,"1":0.085,"2":0.015},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.88,"1":0.105,"2":0.015},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.85,"1":0.12,"2":0.03},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.735,"1":0.225,"2":0.035,"3":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.86,"1":0.055,"2":0.02,"3":0.02,"4":0.015,"5":0.01,"7":0.015,"8":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1758844800000,"validUntil":1761436800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":2,"actual":59,"trainingCount":6476,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2025","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":5.591524999999999,"mean":65.835,"median":60,"bias":6.834999999999994,"maeMean":6.834999999999994,"maeMedian":1,"low":31,"high":120,"coverage":true,"width":89,"pitLower":0.465,"pitUpper":0.485,"empiricalMass":0.02,"logScore":3.912023005428146},"rollingETAS":{"crps":21.7025,"mean":32.65,"median":32,"bias":-26.35,"maeMean":26.35,"maeMedian":27,"low":20,"high":48,"coverage":false,"width":28,"pitLower":1,"pitUpper":1,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":5.0718499999999995,"mean":63.91,"median":57,"bias":4.909999999999997,"maeMean":4.909999999999997,"maeMedian":2,"low":29,"high":113,"coverage":true,"width":84,"pitLower":0.525,"pitUpper":0.545,"empiricalMass":0.02,"logScore":3.912023005428146},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":10.56135,"mean":44.71,"median":44,"bias":-14.29,"maeMean":14.29,"maeMedian":15,"low":34,"high":56,"coverage":false,"width":22,"pitLower":0.975,"pitUpper":0.98,"empiricalMass":0.005,"logScore":5.298317366548036},"recentPoisson":{"crps":4.1812000000000005,"mean":52.12,"median":52,"bias":-6.880000000000003,"maeMean":6.880000000000003,"maeMedian":7,"low":41,"high":64,"coverage":true,"width":23,"pitLower":0.825,"pitUpper":0.865,"empiricalMass":0.04,"logScore":3.2188758248682006},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":20.119825,"mean":52.625,"median":23,"bias":-6.375,"maeMean":6.375,"maeMedian":36,"low":0,"high":189,"coverage":true,"width":189,"pitLower":0.7,"pitUpper":0.7,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"20":0.005,"21":0.005,"24":0.005,"26":0.005,"27":0.005,"28":0.005,"30":0.005,"31":0.02,"32":0.02,"34":0.01,"35":0.005,"36":0.01,"37":0.015,"38":0.015,"39":0.01,"40":0.02,"41":0.025,"43":0.035,"44":0.005,"45":0.015,"46":0.035,"47":0.02,"48":0.02,"49":0.01,"50":0.02,"51":0.005,"52":0.01,"53":0.015,"54":0.02,"55":0.03,"56":0.01,"57":0.015,"58":0.015,"59":0.02,"60":0.02,"61":0.02,"62":0.01,"63":0.015,"64":0.015,"65":0.02,"66":0.02,"67":0.01,"68":0.02,"69":0.02,"70":0.02,"71":0.01,"72":0.02,"73":0.02,"74":0.01,"75":0.015,"76":0.01,"77":0.01,"78":0.005,"79":0.015,"80":0.005,"81":0.015,"82":0.015,"83":0.005,"84":0.005,"85":0.005,"86":0.01,"88":0.005,"92":0.01,"94":0.005,"98":0.01,"99":0.005,"100":0.01,"103":0.005,"104":0.005,"107":0.005,"108":0.01,"109":0.005,"111":0.005,"112":0.005,"114":0.005,"116":0.005,"120":0.005,"126":0.005,"137":0.01,"142":0.005,"150":0.005,"164":0.005,"168":0.005,"181":0.005,"185":0.005,"216":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"14":0.005,"15":0.005,"17":0.005,"18":0.02,"19":0.005,"20":0.01,"21":0.02,"22":0.035,"23":0.035,"24":0.045,"25":0.025,"26":0.045,"27":0.035,"28":0.01,"29":0.045,"30":0.08,"31":0.065,"32":0.045,"33":0.025,"34":0.02,"35":0.045,"36":0.07,"37":0.055,"38":0.03,"39":0.02,"40":0.04,"41":0.02,"42":0.015,"43":0.025,"44":0.03,"45":0.005,"47":0.01,"48":0.01,"49":0.01,"52":0.02,"53":0.005,"54":0.01},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"20":0.005,"24":0.015,"25":0.005,"27":0.01,"29":0.02,"31":0.005,"32":0.005,"33":0.005,"34":0.02,"36":0.01,"37":0.005,"38":0.01,"39":0.015,"40":0.02,"41":0.01,"42":0.035,"43":0.015,"45":0.03,"46":0.015,"47":0.02,"48":0.005,"49":0.005,"50":0.03,"51":0.035,"52":0.02,"53":0.025,"54":0.025,"55":0.03,"56":0.02,"57":0.035,"58":0.02,"59":0.02,"60":0.005,"61":0.015,"62":0.015,"63":0.025,"64":0.02,"65":0.01,"66":0.005,"67":0.02,"68":0.015,"69":0.025,"70":0.005,"72":0.015,"73":0.015,"74":0.015,"75":0.015,"77":0.015,"78":0.025,"79":0.005,"80":0.005,"83":0.01,"85":0.005,"86":0.01,"87":0.01,"88":0.015,"89":0.005,"92":0.005,"94":0.005,"96":0.005,"97":0.005,"98":0.005,"99":0.015,"102":0.01,"107":0.005,"108":0.005,"112":0.015,"113":0.005,"114":0.005,"125":0.005,"128":0.005,"131":0.005,"132":0.005,"145":0.005,"157":0.005,"162":0.005,"173":0.005,"178":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"27":0.005,"30":0.005,"31":0.005,"32":0.01,"33":0.015,"34":0.01,"35":0.015,"36":0.035,"37":0.05,"38":0.04,"39":0.05,"40":0.05,"41":0.05,"42":0.05,"43":0.065,"44":0.05,"45":0.05,"46":0.055,"47":0.06,"48":0.055,"49":0.025,"50":0.05,"51":0.025,"52":0.035,"53":0.04,"54":0.02,"55":0.02,"56":0.01,"57":0.02,"58":0.005,"59":0.005,"60":0.01,"61":0.005,"63":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"37":0.01,"38":0.01,"39":0.015,"40":0.01,"41":0.04,"42":0.035,"43":0.02,"44":0.01,"45":0.02,"46":0.025,"47":0.055,"48":0.045,"49":0.05,"50":0.07,"51":0.06,"52":0.045,"53":0.04,"54":0.06,"55":0.075,"56":0.055,"57":0.045,"58":0.03,"59":0.04,"60":0.035,"62":0.015,"63":0.01,"64":0.04,"65":0.015,"68":0.01,"70":0.005,"75":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.06,"1":0.025,"2":0.065,"3":0.02,"4":0.03,"5":0.01,"6":0.03,"7":0.03,"8":0.025,"9":0.02,"10":0.005,"11":0.035,"12":0.015,"13":0.02,"14":0.005,"15":0.015,"16":0.01,"17":0.015,"18":0.04,"20":0.005,"21":0.005,"22":0.01,"23":0.015,"24":0.015,"25":0.005,"26":0.01,"27":0.01,"31":0.01,"32":0.02,"34":0.005,"36":0.01,"38":0.01,"41":0.01,"43":0.005,"46":0.01,"47":0.015,"48":0.015,"49":0.005,"50":0.005,"51":0.01,"52":0.005,"57":0.01,"58":0.005,"64":0.01,"65":0.005,"66":0.005,"67":0.005,"68":0.005,"73":0.01,"75":0.005,"77":0.01,"78":0.01,"79":0.005,"80":0.005,"81":0.005,"82":0.005,"83":0.005,"89":0.005,"92":0.005,"96":0.005,"97":0.005,"98":0.005,"101":0.01,"103":0.005,"104":0.005,"107":0.005,"110":0.005,"112":0.005,"115":0.005,"119":0.005,"124":0.005,"125":0.005,"127":0.005,"129":0.005,"132":0.005,"133":0.005,"135":0.005,"139":0.005,"141":0.005,"144":0.005,"155":0.005,"162":0.005,"163":0.005,"175":0.015,"185":0.005,"189":0.005,"228":0.005,"242":0.005,"248":0.005,"252":0.005,"256":0.005,"258":0.005,"272":0.005,"302":0.005,"307":0.005,"330":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1758844800000,"validUntil":1761436800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":3,"actual":9,"trainingCount":6476,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2025","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":1.3853499999999999,"mean":8.3,"median":7,"bias":-0.6999999999999993,"maeMean":0.6999999999999993,"maeMedian":2,"low":1,"high":19,"coverage":true,"width":18,"pitLower":0.6,"pitUpper":0.665,"empiricalMass":0.065,"logScore":2.7333680090865},"rollingETAS":{"crps":4.004300000000001,"mean":3.96,"median":4,"bias":-5.04,"maeMean":5.04,"maeMedian":5,"low":1,"high":8,"coverage":false,"width":7,"pitLower":0.965,"pitUpper":0.985,"empiricalMass":0.02,"logScore":3.912023005428146},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":1.5098500000000001,"mean":7.48,"median":7,"bias":-1.5199999999999996,"maeMean":1.5199999999999996,"maeMedian":2,"low":1,"high":16,"coverage":true,"width":15,"pitLower":0.66,"pitUpper":0.725,"empiricalMass":0.065,"logScore":2.7333680090865},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":1.8993,"mean":6.05,"median":6,"bias":-2.95,"maeMean":2.95,"maeMedian":3,"low":2,"high":10,"coverage":true,"width":8,"pitLower":0.845,"pitUpper":0.895,"empiricalMass":0.05,"logScore":2.995732273553991},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.7485750000000002,"mean":9.725,"median":9.5,"bias":0.7249999999999996,"maeMean":0.7249999999999996,"maeMedian":0.5,"low":5,"high":15,"coverage":true,"width":10,"pitLower":0.38,"pitUpper":0.5,"empiricalMass":0.12,"logScore":2.120263536200091},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":4.1907250000000005,"mean":10.505,"median":1,"bias":1.5050000000000008,"maeMean":1.5050000000000008,"maeMedian":8,"low":0,"high":50,"coverage":true,"width":50,"pitLower":0.72,"pitUpper":0.735,"empiricalMass":0.015,"logScore":4.199705077879927}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.015,"1":0.045,"2":0.06,"3":0.06,"4":0.07,"5":0.085,"6":0.105,"7":0.1,"8":0.06,"9":0.065,"10":0.09,"11":0.045,"12":0.04,"13":0.015,"14":0.02,"15":0.005,"16":0.03,"17":0.01,"18":0.015,"19":0.015,"20":0.015,"21":0.01,"25":0.01,"28":0.005,"29":0.005,"36":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.02,"1":0.075,"2":0.125,"3":0.225,"4":0.22,"5":0.16,"6":0.07,"7":0.05,"8":0.02,"9":0.02,"10":0.01,"14":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.015,"1":0.035,"2":0.06,"3":0.1,"4":0.085,"5":0.095,"6":0.1,"7":0.09,"8":0.08,"9":0.065,"10":0.04,"11":0.08,"12":0.03,"13":0.02,"14":0.02,"15":0.02,"16":0.015,"17":0.01,"18":0.01,"19":0.005,"20":0.005,"21":0.005,"22":0.005,"26":0.005,"29":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"1":0.01,"2":0.04,"3":0.12,"4":0.13,"5":0.155,"6":0.115,"7":0.15,"8":0.125,"9":0.05,"10":0.06,"11":0.025,"12":0.02},"recentPoisson":{"2":0.005,"4":0.02,"5":0.065,"6":0.065,"7":0.07,"8":0.155,"9":0.12,"10":0.125,"11":0.105,"12":0.08,"13":0.075,"14":0.035,"15":0.05,"16":0.01,"17":0.01,"18":0.005,"22":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.395,"1":0.11,"2":0.05,"3":0.035,"4":0.03,"5":0.04,"6":0.02,"7":0.015,"8":0.025,"9":0.015,"10":0.02,"12":0.01,"13":0.015,"14":0.03,"15":0.005,"16":0.015,"17":0.005,"18":0.005,"20":0.005,"21":0.005,"22":0.01,"23":0.005,"25":0.005,"27":0.005,"28":0.005,"29":0.01,"33":0.005,"34":0.01,"36":0.01,"39":0.005,"40":0.005,"41":0.005,"42":0.005,"43":0.005,"48":0.005,"50":0.005,"52":0.005,"55":0.005,"66":0.005,"80":0.005,"81":0.005,"86":0.005,"99":0.005,"108":0.005,"109":0.005,"119":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1758844800000,"validUntil":1761436800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":4,"actual":2,"trainingCount":6476,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2025","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.7455999999999999,"mean":1.04,"median":1,"bias":-0.96,"maeMean":0.96,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.735,"pitUpper":0.885,"empiricalMass":0.15,"logScore":1.8971199848858813},"rollingETAS":{"crps":1.2592,"mean":0.47,"median":0,"bias":-1.53,"maeMean":1.53,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.925,"pitUpper":0.985,"empiricalMass":0.06,"logScore":2.8134107167600364},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.87595,"mean":0.89,"median":0,"bias":-1.1099999999999999,"maeMean":1.1099999999999999,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.78,"pitUpper":0.9,"empiricalMass":0.12,"logScore":2.120263536200091},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.774375,"mean":0.875,"median":1,"bias":-1.125,"maeMean":1.125,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.79,"pitUpper":0.955,"empiricalMass":0.165,"logScore":1.8018098050815563},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.52395,"mean":1.22,"median":1,"bias":-0.78,"maeMean":0.78,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.655,"pitUpper":0.875,"empiricalMass":0.22,"logScore":1.5141277326297755},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":1.1061249999999998,"mean":1.555,"median":0,"bias":-0.44500000000000006,"maeMean":0.44500000000000006,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":9,"coverage":true,"width":9,"pitLower":0.75,"pitUpper":0.815,"empiricalMass":0.065,"logScore":2.7333680090865}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.435,"1":0.3,"2":0.15,"3":0.065,"4":0.035,"5":0.005,"6":0.005,"10":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.635,"1":0.29,"2":0.06,"3":0.005,"4":0.005,"5":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.505,"1":0.275,"2":0.12,"3":0.055,"4":0.025,"5":0.01,"6":0.01},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.385,"1":0.405,"2":0.165,"3":0.04,"4":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.28,"1":0.375,"2":0.22,"3":0.095,"4":0.03},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.665,"1":0.085,"2":0.065,"3":0.03,"4":0.035,"5":0.03,"6":0.005,"7":0.015,"8":0.01,"9":0.02,"10":0.01,"11":0.005,"13":0.005,"14":0.005,"16":0.005,"19":0.005,"20":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1761436800000,"validUntil":1761523200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":2,"actual":2,"trainingCount":6535,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2025","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.5126250000000001,"mean":1.705,"median":1,"bias":-0.29499999999999993,"maeMean":0.29499999999999993,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.555,"pitUpper":0.755,"empiricalMass":0.2,"logScore":1.6094379124341003},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.6599250000000001,"mean":1.065,"median":1,"bias":-0.935,"maeMean":0.935,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.71,"pitUpper":0.9,"empiricalMass":0.19,"logScore":1.6607312068216509},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.559275,"mean":1.445,"median":1,"bias":-0.5549999999999999,"maeMean":0.5549999999999999,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.635,"pitUpper":0.835,"empiricalMass":0.2,"logScore":1.6094379124341003},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.43322499999999997,"mean":1.415,"median":1,"bias":-0.585,"maeMean":0.585,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.58,"pitUpper":0.82,"empiricalMass":0.24,"logScore":1.4271163556401458},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.3138749999999999,"mean":1.955,"median":2,"bias":-0.04499999999999993,"maeMean":0.04499999999999993,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.41,"pitUpper":0.67,"empiricalMass":0.26,"logScore":1.3470736479666092},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":1.45275,"mean":1.32,"median":0,"bias":-0.6799999999999999,"maeMean":0.6799999999999999,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":8,"coverage":true,"width":8,"pitLower":0.865,"pitUpper":0.89,"empiricalMass":0.025,"logScore":3.6888794541139363}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.34,"1":0.215,"2":0.2,"3":0.105,"4":0.07,"5":0.02,"6":0.015,"7":0.015,"8":0.01,"11":0.005,"13":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.38,"1":0.33,"2":0.19,"3":0.065,"4":0.025,"6":0.01},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.335,"1":0.3,"2":0.2,"3":0.055,"4":0.055,"5":0.03,"7":0.015,"8":0.005,"13":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.25,"1":0.33,"2":0.24,"3":0.14,"4":0.025,"5":0.005,"6":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.145,"1":0.265,"2":0.26,"3":0.215,"4":0.065,"5":0.04,"6":0.005,"7":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.81,"1":0.055,"2":0.025,"3":0.025,"4":0.005,"5":0.01,"6":0.01,"7":0.005,"8":0.005,"9":0.005,"10":0.01,"12":0.015,"15":0.005,"21":0.005,"32":0.005,"54":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1761436800000,"validUntil":1761523200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":3,"actual":1,"trainingCount":6535,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2025","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.649375,"mean":0.245,"median":0,"bias":-0.755,"maeMean":0.755,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0.805,"pitUpper":0.965,"empiricalMass":0.16,"logScore":1.8325814637483102},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.8282,"mean":0.1,"median":0,"bias":-0.9,"maeMean":0.9,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0.91,"pitUpper":0.99,"empiricalMass":0.08,"logScore":2.5257286443082556},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.71475,"mean":0.19,"median":0,"bias":-0.81,"maeMean":0.81,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0.845,"pitUpper":0.975,"empiricalMass":0.13,"logScore":2.0402208285265546},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.5931500000000001,"mean":0.25,"median":0,"bias":-0.75,"maeMean":0.75,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0.77,"pitUpper":0.985,"empiricalMass":0.215,"logScore":1.5371172508544744},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.49255,"mean":0.36,"median":0,"bias":-0.64,"maeMean":0.64,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0.7,"pitUpper":0.95,"empiricalMass":0.25,"logScore":1.3862943611198906},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.8687,"mean":0.22,"median":0,"bias":-0.78,"maeMean":0.78,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0.93,"pitUpper":0.96,"empiricalMass":0.03,"logScore":3.506557897319982}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.805,"1":0.16,"2":0.025,"3":0.005,"4":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.91,"1":0.08,"2":0.01},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.845,"1":0.13,"2":0.015,"3":0.01},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.77,"1":0.215,"2":0.01,"3":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.7,"1":0.25,"2":0.045,"4":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.93,"1":0.03,"2":0.01,"3":0.005,"4":0.005,"5":0.01,"7":0.005,"10":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1761436800000,"validUntil":1761523200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":6535,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2025","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.0001250000000000001,"mean":0.015,"median":0,"bias":0.015,"maeMean":0.015,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.99,"empiricalMass":0.99,"logScore":0.01005033585350145},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.00040000000000000105,"mean":0.02,"median":0,"bias":0.02,"maeMean":0.02,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.98,"empiricalMass":0.98,"logScore":0.020202707317519466},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.00040000000000000105,"mean":0.02,"median":0,"bias":0.02,"maeMean":0.02,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.98,"empiricalMass":0.98,"logScore":0.020202707317519466},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.002024999999999999,"mean":0.045,"median":0,"bias":0.045,"maeMean":0.045,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.955,"empiricalMass":0.955,"logScore":0.046043938501406846},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.0016000000000000042,"mean":0.04,"median":0,"bias":0.04,"maeMean":0.04,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.96,"empiricalMass":0.96,"logScore":0.040821994520255166},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.0005500000000000019,"mean":0.04,"median":0,"bias":0.04,"maeMean":0.04,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.98,"empiricalMass":0.98,"logScore":0.020202707317519466}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.99,"1":0.005,"2":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.98,"1":0.02},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.98,"1":0.02},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.955,"1":0.045},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.96,"1":0.04},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.98,"1":0.01,"2":0.005,"4":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1761436800000,"validUntil":1762041600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":2,"actual":6,"trainingCount":6535,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2025","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":3.950375,"mean":14.785,"median":13,"bias":8.785,"maeMean":8.785,"maeMedian":7,"low":4,"high":34,"coverage":true,"width":30,"pitLower":0.11,"pitUpper":0.17,"empiricalMass":0.06,"logScore":2.8134107167600364},"rollingETAS":{"crps":1.0100000000000002,"mean":7.86,"median":7,"bias":1.8600000000000003,"maeMean":1.8600000000000003,"maeMedian":1,"low":2,"high":15,"coverage":true,"width":13,"pitLower":0.265,"pitUpper":0.4,"empiricalMass":0.135,"logScore":2.0024805005437076},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":4.219799999999999,"mean":14.88,"median":12,"bias":8.88,"maeMean":8.88,"maeMedian":6,"low":4,"high":36,"coverage":true,"width":32,"pitLower":0.08,"pitUpper":0.14,"empiricalMass":0.06,"logScore":2.8134107167600364},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":3.1003999999999996,"mean":10.69,"median":11,"bias":4.6899999999999995,"maeMean":4.6899999999999995,"maeMedian":5,"low":6,"high":16,"coverage":true,"width":10,"pitLower":0.04,"pitUpper":0.065,"empiricalMass":0.025,"logScore":3.6888794541139363},"recentPoisson":{"crps":4.852975000000001,"mean":12.985,"median":13,"bias":6.984999999999999,"maeMean":6.984999999999999,"maeMedian":7,"low":7,"high":19,"coverage":false,"width":12,"pitLower":0.015,"pitUpper":0.035,"empiricalMass":0.02,"logScore":3.912023005428146},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":3.6884000000000015,"mean":15.22,"median":1,"bias":9.22,"maeMean":9.22,"maeMedian":5,"low":0,"high":76,"coverage":true,"width":76,"pitLower":0.68,"pitUpper":0.71,"empiricalMass":0.03,"logScore":3.506557897319982}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"2":0.005,"3":0.025,"4":0.025,"5":0.055,"6":0.06,"7":0.085,"8":0.07,"9":0.045,"10":0.065,"11":0.025,"12":0.03,"13":0.05,"14":0.05,"15":0.04,"16":0.055,"17":0.055,"18":0.045,"19":0.02,"20":0.035,"21":0.015,"22":0.005,"23":0.015,"25":0.005,"26":0.01,"27":0.005,"29":0.015,"30":0.005,"31":0.01,"32":0.005,"33":0.01,"34":0.01,"35":0.005,"38":0.005,"42":0.005,"43":0.005,"48":0.01,"53":0.005,"56":0.005,"57":0.005,"70":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.005,"1":0.01,"2":0.035,"3":0.055,"4":0.065,"5":0.095,"6":0.135,"7":0.105,"8":0.135,"9":0.095,"10":0.06,"11":0.04,"12":0.06,"13":0.03,"14":0.02,"15":0.015,"16":0.01,"17":0.01,"18":0.01,"21":0.005,"26":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"2":0.005,"3":0.015,"4":0.03,"5":0.03,"6":0.06,"7":0.075,"8":0.05,"9":0.07,"10":0.05,"11":0.08,"12":0.05,"13":0.04,"14":0.04,"15":0.05,"16":0.05,"17":0.035,"18":0.035,"19":0.02,"20":0.02,"21":0.02,"22":0.02,"23":0.02,"24":0.015,"25":0.015,"26":0.005,"27":0.005,"28":0.005,"30":0.01,"31":0.005,"32":0.005,"34":0.01,"35":0.005,"36":0.01,"43":0.01,"44":0.01,"45":0.005,"46":0.005,"47":0.005,"51":0.005,"52":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"4":0.015,"5":0.025,"6":0.025,"7":0.065,"8":0.15,"9":0.08,"10":0.12,"11":0.125,"12":0.135,"13":0.09,"14":0.06,"15":0.055,"16":0.025,"17":0.01,"18":0.015,"22":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"4":0.01,"5":0.005,"6":0.02,"7":0.055,"8":0.03,"9":0.055,"10":0.1,"11":0.09,"12":0.115,"13":0.085,"14":0.095,"15":0.075,"16":0.06,"17":0.085,"18":0.06,"19":0.015,"20":0.015,"21":0.005,"22":0.005,"23":0.015,"24":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.46,"1":0.11,"2":0.04,"3":0.025,"4":0.02,"5":0.025,"6":0.03,"7":0.005,"8":0.025,"9":0.015,"10":0.005,"11":0.005,"13":0.005,"14":0.01,"15":0.015,"17":0.01,"19":0.005,"20":0.01,"26":0.005,"27":0.01,"29":0.005,"30":0.01,"31":0.005,"32":0.005,"33":0.01,"34":0.01,"35":0.01,"37":0.005,"40":0.005,"42":0.015,"46":0.005,"53":0.005,"59":0.005,"70":0.005,"71":0.01,"76":0.005,"81":0.005,"82":0.005,"84":0.005,"90":0.005,"91":0.005,"106":0.005,"121":0.005,"151":0.005,"349":0.005,"400":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1761436800000,"validUntil":1762041600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":3,"actual":1,"trainingCount":6535,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2025","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.383525,"mean":1.745,"median":1,"bias":0.7450000000000001,"maeMean":0.7450000000000001,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.315,"pitUpper":0.575,"empiricalMass":0.26,"logScore":1.3470736479666092},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.26105,"mean":0.95,"median":1,"bias":-0.050000000000000044,"maeMean":0.050000000000000044,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.44,"pitUpper":0.755,"empiricalMass":0.315,"logScore":1.155182640156504},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.40942500000000004,"mean":1.895,"median":1,"bias":0.895,"maeMean":0.895,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":6,"coverage":true,"width":6,"pitLower":0.24,"pitUpper":0.53,"empiricalMass":0.29,"logScore":1.2378743560016174},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.26017500000000005,"mean":1.435,"median":1,"bias":0.43500000000000005,"maeMean":0.43500000000000005,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.22,"pitUpper":0.575,"empiricalMass":0.355,"logScore":1.0356374895067213},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.8424750000000001,"mean":2.505,"median":2,"bias":1.505,"maeMean":1.505,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.09,"pitUpper":0.255,"empiricalMass":0.165,"logScore":1.8018098050815563},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.7336,"mean":1.15,"median":0,"bias":0.1499999999999999,"maeMean":0.1499999999999999,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":7,"coverage":true,"width":7,"pitLower":0.825,"pitUpper":0.88,"empiricalMass":0.055,"logScore":2.900422093749666}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.315,"1":0.26,"2":0.175,"3":0.095,"4":0.035,"5":0.075,"6":0.025,"7":0.01,"9":0.005,"14":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.44,"1":0.315,"2":0.175,"3":0.03,"4":0.01,"5":0.025,"6":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.24,"1":0.29,"2":0.185,"3":0.095,"4":0.095,"5":0.03,"6":0.05,"7":0.005,"8":0.005,"9":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.22,"1":0.355,"2":0.255,"3":0.125,"4":0.03,"5":0.015},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.09,"1":0.165,"2":0.28,"3":0.24,"4":0.12,"5":0.07,"6":0.02,"7":0.01,"8":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.825,"1":0.055,"2":0.02,"3":0.02,"4":0.015,"5":0.01,"7":0.015,"9":0.005,"12":0.005,"13":0.01,"17":0.005,"24":0.005,"33":0.005,"35":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1761436800000,"validUntil":1762041600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":6535,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2025","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.021224999999999994,"mean":0.185,"median":0,"bias":0.185,"maeMean":0.185,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.86,"empiricalMass":0.86,"logScore":0.15082288973458366},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.01212500000000001,"mean":0.115,"median":0,"bias":0.115,"maeMean":0.115,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.89,"empiricalMass":0.89,"logScore":0.11653381625595151},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.033324999999999994,"mean":0.215,"median":0,"bias":0.215,"maeMean":0.215,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.82,"empiricalMass":0.82,"logScore":0.19845093872383832},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.0401,"mean":0.21,"median":0,"bias":0.21,"maeMean":0.21,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.8,"empiricalMass":0.8,"logScore":0.2231435513142097},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.08195,"mean":0.32,"median":0,"bias":0.32,"maeMean":0.32,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.715,"empiricalMass":0.715,"logScore":0.33547273628812946},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.021975000000000022,"mean":0.335,"median":0,"bias":0.335,"maeMean":0.335,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.88,"empiricalMass":0.88,"logScore":0.12783337150988489}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.86,"1":0.1,"2":0.035,"3":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.89,"1":0.105,"2":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.82,"1":0.15,"2":0.025,"3":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.8,"1":0.19,"2":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.715,"1":0.26,"2":0.015,"3":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.88,"1":0.05,"2":0.035,"3":0.01,"4":0.015,"12":0.005,"13":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1761436800000,"validUntil":1764028800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":2,"actual":32,"trainingCount":6535,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2025","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":20.412975000000003,"mean":67.915,"median":59.5,"bias":35.915000000000006,"maeMean":35.915000000000006,"maeMedian":27.5,"low":31,"high":120,"coverage":true,"width":89,"pitLower":0.05,"pitUpper":0.065,"empiricalMass":0.015,"logScore":4.199705077879927},"rollingETAS":{"crps":1.8269249999999992,"mean":33.905,"median":33,"bias":1.9050000000000011,"maeMean":1.9050000000000011,"maeMedian":1,"low":22,"high":49,"coverage":true,"width":27,"pitLower":0.405,"pitUpper":0.495,"empiricalMass":0.09,"logScore":2.4079456086518722},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":20.254175000000004,"mean":66.985,"median":63,"bias":34.985,"maeMean":34.985,"maeMedian":31,"low":31,"high":114,"coverage":true,"width":83,"pitLower":0.055,"pitUpper":0.06,"empiricalMass":0.005,"logScore":5.298317366548036},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":9.5451,"mean":45.26,"median":45,"bias":13.259999999999998,"maeMean":13.259999999999998,"maeMedian":13,"low":35,"high":56,"coverage":false,"width":21,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.005,"empiricalMass":0.005,"logScore":5.298317366548036},"recentPoisson":{"crps":19.4771,"mean":55.42,"median":55,"bias":23.42,"maeMean":23.42,"maeMedian":23,"low":43,"high":66,"coverage":false,"width":23,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":11.166024999999998,"mean":53.075,"median":31,"bias":21.075000000000003,"maeMean":21.075000000000003,"maeMedian":1,"low":1,"high":174,"coverage":true,"width":173,"pitLower":0.52,"pitUpper":0.53,"empiricalMass":0.01,"logScore":4.605170185988091}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"21":0.005,"22":0.005,"25":0.01,"27":0.01,"28":0.005,"29":0.005,"30":0.005,"31":0.005,"32":0.015,"33":0.01,"36":0.01,"37":0.005,"39":0.025,"40":0.025,"41":0.005,"42":0.01,"43":0.015,"44":0.025,"45":0.005,"46":0.015,"47":0.025,"48":0.015,"49":0.01,"50":0.03,"51":0.025,"52":0.015,"53":0.02,"54":0.045,"55":0.015,"56":0.03,"57":0.015,"58":0.02,"59":0.02,"60":0.01,"61":0.01,"62":0.005,"63":0.02,"64":0.025,"65":0.015,"66":0.01,"67":0.005,"68":0.025,"69":0.02,"70":0.005,"71":0.02,"72":0.02,"73":0.005,"74":0.005,"75":0.01,"76":0.015,"77":0.005,"78":0.005,"79":0.02,"80":0.015,"82":0.01,"83":0.005,"84":0.005,"85":0.005,"87":0.005,"88":0.005,"89":0.015,"90":0.01,"92":0.01,"93":0.005,"94":0.005,"96":0.005,"98":0.015,"100":0.005,"101":0.01,"102":0.005,"103":0.005,"104":0.005,"105":0.005,"107":0.005,"108":0.005,"109":0.01,"111":0.005,"113":0.005,"117":0.005,"119":0.005,"120":0.005,"124":0.005,"125":0.005,"128":0.005,"131":0.005,"162":0.005,"167":0.005,"172":0.005,"175":0.005,"222":0.005,"271":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"15":0.005,"17":0.005,"19":0.005,"20":0.005,"21":0.02,"22":0.025,"23":0.02,"24":0.03,"25":0.035,"26":0.03,"27":0.03,"28":0.04,"29":0.08,"30":0.02,"31":0.055,"32":0.09,"33":0.04,"34":0.045,"35":0.03,"36":0.045,"37":0.055,"38":0.045,"39":0.03,"40":0.04,"41":0.025,"42":0.015,"43":0.01,"44":0.015,"45":0.005,"46":0.01,"47":0.02,"48":0.005,"49":0.045,"52":0.005,"53":0.005,"59":0.005,"63":0.005,"65":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"25":0.005,"27":0.005,"28":0.005,"29":0.005,"30":0.005,"31":0.03,"32":0.005,"33":0.005,"34":0.01,"35":0.005,"36":0.03,"37":0.02,"38":0.01,"39":0.01,"40":0.015,"42":0.005,"43":0.015,"44":0.015,"45":0.015,"46":0.02,"47":0.02,"48":0.02,"49":0.015,"50":0.02,"51":0.025,"52":0.01,"53":0.015,"54":0.005,"55":0.025,"56":0.03,"57":0.01,"58":0.01,"59":0.025,"60":0.005,"61":0.005,"62":0.02,"63":0.03,"64":0.03,"65":0.01,"66":0.025,"67":0.01,"68":0.015,"69":0.01,"70":0.025,"71":0.01,"72":0.02,"73":0.01,"74":0.01,"75":0.01,"76":0.005,"77":0.005,"78":0.015,"79":0.015,"81":0.005,"83":0.005,"84":0.005,"85":0.01,"86":0.005,"87":0.01,"88":0.015,"89":0.005,"90":0.015,"93":0.005,"94":0.02,"95":0.005,"96":0.005,"97":0.005,"98":0.015,"100":0.015,"101":0.01,"103":0.005,"104":0.005,"105":0.005,"109":0.005,"110":0.005,"111":0.005,"113":0.01,"114":0.005,"119":0.005,"120":0.01,"122":0.01,"124":0.005,"147":0.005,"151":0.005,"152":0.005,"281":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"32":0.005,"33":0.015,"34":0.01,"35":0.045,"36":0.015,"37":0.045,"38":0.04,"39":0.04,"40":0.035,"41":0.045,"42":0.05,"43":0.085,"44":0.05,"45":0.05,"46":0.045,"47":0.06,"48":0.045,"49":0.04,"50":0.055,"51":0.06,"52":0.03,"53":0.03,"54":0.015,"55":0.01,"56":0.035,"57":0.02,"58":0.005,"61":0.01,"62":0.005,"63":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"35":0.005,"36":0.005,"38":0.005,"41":0.005,"42":0.01,"43":0.02,"44":0.015,"45":0.01,"46":0.025,"47":0.035,"48":0.04,"49":0.02,"50":0.035,"51":0.035,"52":0.035,"53":0.1,"54":0.035,"55":0.075,"56":0.085,"57":0.025,"58":0.04,"59":0.06,"60":0.055,"61":0.01,"62":0.055,"63":0.04,"64":0.045,"65":0.015,"66":0.025,"68":0.01,"69":0.005,"71":0.005,"73":0.005,"76":0.005,"80":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.045,"1":0.025,"2":0.025,"3":0.03,"4":0.005,"5":0.03,"6":0.015,"7":0.045,"8":0.01,"9":0.025,"10":0.015,"11":0.015,"12":0.02,"13":0.025,"14":0.015,"15":0.015,"16":0.005,"17":0.015,"18":0.005,"20":0.02,"21":0.02,"22":0.03,"23":0.015,"24":0.005,"25":0.01,"26":0.005,"30":0.005,"31":0.025,"32":0.01,"33":0.01,"34":0.03,"38":0.015,"39":0.01,"42":0.01,"45":0.005,"46":0.02,"48":0.005,"50":0.005,"51":0.015,"54":0.015,"55":0.005,"57":0.015,"58":0.005,"59":0.005,"62":0.005,"63":0.005,"66":0.005,"68":0.015,"70":0.01,"71":0.005,"72":0.005,"73":0.005,"75":0.01,"76":0.005,"77":0.015,"79":0.005,"81":0.005,"83":0.005,"84":0.005,"91":0.01,"93":0.01,"94":0.005,"95":0.005,"98":0.005,"99":0.01,"100":0.005,"101":0.005,"105":0.005,"106":0.005,"110":0.005,"113":0.005,"120":0.005,"121":0.005,"123":0.005,"125":0.005,"128":0.005,"129":0.01,"132":0.005,"153":0.005,"159":0.005,"160":0.005,"164":0.005,"173":0.005,"174":0.005,"177":0.005,"191":0.005,"212":0.005,"213":0.005,"287":0.005,"317":0.005,"328":0.005,"351":0.005,"353":0.005,"371":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1761436800000,"validUntil":1764028800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":3,"actual":4,"trainingCount":6535,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2025","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":2.1755499999999994,"mean":8.69,"median":7,"bias":4.6899999999999995,"maeMean":4.6899999999999995,"maeMedian":3,"low":2,"high":20,"coverage":true,"width":18,"pitLower":0.15,"pitUpper":0.245,"empiricalMass":0.095,"logScore":2.353878387381596},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.5427500000000001,"mean":4.36,"median":4,"bias":0.3600000000000003,"maeMean":0.3600000000000003,"maeMedian":0,"low":1,"high":9,"coverage":true,"width":8,"pitLower":0.41,"pitUpper":0.565,"empiricalMass":0.155,"logScore":1.8643301620628905},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":2.11405,"mean":8.32,"median":7,"bias":4.32,"maeMean":4.32,"maeMedian":3,"low":2,"high":16,"coverage":true,"width":14,"pitLower":0.175,"pitUpper":0.26,"empiricalMass":0.085,"logScore":2.4651040224918206},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":1.2902750000000003,"mean":6.195,"median":6,"bias":2.1950000000000003,"maeMean":2.1950000000000003,"maeMedian":2,"low":2,"high":10,"coverage":true,"width":8,"pitLower":0.125,"pitUpper":0.235,"empiricalMass":0.11,"logScore":2.2072749131897207},"recentPoisson":{"crps":4.7071000000000005,"mean":10.54,"median":11,"bias":6.539999999999999,"maeMean":6.539999999999999,"maeMedian":7,"low":5,"high":16,"coverage":false,"width":11,"pitLower":0.02,"pitUpper":0.03,"empiricalMass":0.01,"logScore":4.605170185988091},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":2.6396250000000006,"mean":10.905,"median":2,"bias":6.904999999999999,"maeMean":6.904999999999999,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":50,"coverage":true,"width":50,"pitLower":0.605,"pitUpper":0.63,"empiricalMass":0.025,"logScore":3.6888794541139363}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.01,"1":0.02,"2":0.07,"3":0.05,"4":0.095,"5":0.075,"6":0.09,"7":0.115,"8":0.09,"9":0.055,"10":0.045,"11":0.055,"12":0.02,"13":0.045,"14":0.02,"15":0.025,"16":0.01,"17":0.02,"18":0.015,"19":0.005,"20":0.025,"22":0.01,"23":0.01,"24":0.005,"25":0.005,"26":0.005,"31":0.005,"37":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.02,"1":0.07,"2":0.14,"3":0.18,"4":0.155,"5":0.165,"6":0.095,"7":0.05,"8":0.065,"9":0.025,"10":0.03,"12":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.015,"1":0.015,"2":0.06,"3":0.085,"4":0.085,"5":0.1,"6":0.05,"7":0.095,"8":0.075,"9":0.08,"10":0.04,"11":0.07,"12":0.035,"13":0.04,"14":0.035,"15":0.055,"16":0.015,"17":0.005,"18":0.01,"19":0.01,"20":0.01,"22":0.005,"36":0.005,"39":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.01,"1":0.015,"2":0.025,"3":0.075,"4":0.11,"5":0.16,"6":0.145,"7":0.19,"8":0.105,"9":0.08,"10":0.055,"11":0.015,"12":0.005,"13":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"1":0.005,"2":0.005,"3":0.01,"4":0.01,"5":0.05,"6":0.05,"7":0.075,"8":0.06,"9":0.095,"10":0.115,"11":0.11,"12":0.13,"13":0.1,"14":0.075,"15":0.05,"16":0.03,"17":0.01,"18":0.005,"19":0.015},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.345,"1":0.135,"2":0.06,"3":0.065,"4":0.025,"5":0.025,"6":0.02,"7":0.025,"8":0.005,"9":0.005,"10":0.02,"11":0.005,"13":0.01,"14":0.005,"15":0.015,"17":0.02,"19":0.01,"20":0.005,"21":0.015,"22":0.01,"23":0.02,"24":0.005,"25":0.01,"26":0.005,"27":0.005,"28":0.01,"30":0.005,"31":0.005,"33":0.005,"34":0.005,"35":0.005,"41":0.01,"42":0.005,"43":0.005,"46":0.005,"47":0.005,"49":0.005,"50":0.01,"51":0.005,"54":0.005,"55":0.005,"58":0.005,"64":0.005,"65":0.005,"69":0.005,"94":0.005,"107":0.005,"137":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1761436800000,"validUntil":1764028800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":6535,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2025","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.3632500000000001,"mean":1.03,"median":1,"bias":1.03,"maeMean":1.03,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.475,"empiricalMass":0.475,"logScore":0.7444404749474959},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.16425000000000006,"mean":0.55,"median":0,"bias":0.55,"maeMean":0.55,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.615,"empiricalMass":0.615,"logScore":0.4861330111756192},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.39625,"mean":0.97,"median":1,"bias":0.97,"maeMean":0.97,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.44,"empiricalMass":0.44,"logScore":0.8209805520698302},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.32725000000000004,"mean":0.79,"median":1,"bias":0.79,"maeMean":0.79,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.46,"empiricalMass":0.46,"logScore":0.7765287894989963},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.7395999999999999,"mean":1.39,"median":1,"bias":1.39,"maeMean":1.39,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.255,"empiricalMass":0.255,"logScore":1.3664917338237108},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.4331750000000001,"mean":1.655,"median":0,"bias":1.655,"maeMean":1.655,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":7,"coverage":true,"width":7,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.55,"empiricalMass":0.55,"logScore":0.5978370007556204}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.475,"1":0.265,"2":0.14,"3":0.06,"4":0.02,"5":0.02,"6":0.015,"7":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.615,"1":0.265,"2":0.08,"3":0.035,"4":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.44,"1":0.29,"2":0.18,"3":0.05,"4":0.035,"6":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.46,"1":0.36,"2":0.125,"3":0.04,"4":0.015},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.255,"1":0.36,"2":0.21,"3":0.1,"4":0.065,"5":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.55,"1":0.13,"2":0.07,"3":0.085,"4":0.04,"5":0.025,"6":0.01,"7":0.04,"8":0.015,"9":0.01,"10":0.01,"11":0.005,"13":0.005,"15":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1764028800000,"validUntil":1764115200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":2,"actual":0,"trainingCount":6567,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2025","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.45485,"mean":1.24,"median":1,"bias":1.24,"maeMean":1.24,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.425,"empiricalMass":0.425,"logScore":0.8556661100577202},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.4166249999999999,"mean":1.075,"median":1,"bias":1.075,"maeMean":1.075,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.435,"empiricalMass":0.435,"logScore":0.8324092478934529},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.5427249999999999,"mean":1.585,"median":1,"bias":1.585,"maeMean":1.585,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":6,"coverage":true,"width":6,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.41,"empiricalMass":0.41,"logScore":0.8915981192837836},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.9324250000000001,"mean":1.645,"median":1,"bias":1.645,"maeMean":1.645,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.2,"empiricalMass":0.2,"logScore":1.6094379124341003},"recentPoisson":{"crps":1.16555,"mean":1.87,"median":2,"bias":1.87,"maeMean":1.87,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.14,"empiricalMass":0.14,"logScore":1.9661128563728327},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.09389999999999987,"mean":1.88,"median":0,"bias":1.88,"maeMean":1.88,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":8,"coverage":true,"width":8,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.85,"empiricalMass":0.85,"logScore":0.16251892949777494}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.425,"1":0.275,"2":0.145,"3":0.075,"4":0.03,"5":0.02,"6":0.015,"7":0.01,"14":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.435,"1":0.285,"2":0.165,"3":0.045,"4":0.045,"5":0.01,"6":0.01,"7":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.41,"1":0.245,"2":0.125,"3":0.095,"4":0.045,"5":0.025,"6":0.03,"7":0.005,"9":0.01,"13":0.005,"26":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.2,"1":0.32,"2":0.25,"3":0.14,"4":0.06,"5":0.02,"6":0.005,"7":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.14,"1":0.3,"2":0.24,"3":0.225,"4":0.065,"5":0.025,"6":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.85,"1":0.04,"2":0.01,"3":0.01,"4":0.01,"5":0.005,"6":0.005,"7":0.01,"8":0.01,"9":0.01,"10":0.005,"12":0.01,"17":0.005,"36":0.005,"42":0.005,"44":0.005,"118":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1764028800000,"validUntil":1764115200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":3,"actual":0,"trainingCount":6567,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2025","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.010350000000000026,"mean":0.14,"median":0,"bias":0.14,"maeMean":0.14,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.905,"empiricalMass":0.905,"logScore":0.0998203352822109},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.01627500000000001,"mean":0.155,"median":0,"bias":0.155,"maeMean":0.155,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.875,"empiricalMass":0.875,"logScore":0.13353139262452263},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.017525000000000013,"mean":0.195,"median":0,"bias":0.195,"maeMean":0.195,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.875,"empiricalMass":0.875,"logScore":0.13353139262452263},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.04645000000000002,"mean":0.23,"median":0,"bias":0.23,"maeMean":0.23,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.785,"empiricalMass":0.785,"logScore":0.24207156119972859},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.10290000000000005,"mean":0.4,"median":0,"bias":0.4,"maeMean":0.4,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.685,"empiricalMass":0.685,"logScore":0.3783364407199117},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.0010500000000000023,"mean":0.05,"median":0,"bias":0.05,"maeMean":0.05,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.97,"empiricalMass":0.97,"logScore":0.030459207484708574}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.905,"1":0.06,"2":0.025,"3":0.01},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.875,"1":0.1,"2":0.02,"3":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.875,"1":0.085,"2":0.025,"3":0.01,"6":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.785,"1":0.2,"2":0.015},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.685,"1":0.26,"2":0.03,"3":0.02,"4":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.97,"1":0.02,"2":0.005,"4":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1764028800000,"validUntil":1764115200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":6567,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2025","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.0002249999999999995,"mean":0.015,"median":0,"bias":0.015,"maeMean":0.015,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.985,"empiricalMass":0.985,"logScore":0.015113637810048184},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.00002499999999999985,"mean":0.005,"median":0,"bias":0.005,"maeMean":0.005,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.995,"empiricalMass":0.995,"logScore":0.005012541823544286},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.00040000000000000105,"mean":0.02,"median":0,"bias":0.02,"maeMean":0.02,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.98,"empiricalMass":0.98,"logScore":0.020202707317519466},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.0002249999999999995,"mean":0.015,"median":0,"bias":0.015,"maeMean":0.015,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.985,"empiricalMass":0.985,"logScore":0.015113637810048184},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.0025000000000000022,"mean":0.05,"median":0,"bias":0.05,"maeMean":0.05,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.95,"empiricalMass":0.95,"logScore":0.05129329438755058},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.0005749999999999991,"mean":0.045,"median":0,"bias":0.045,"maeMean":0.045,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.985,"empiricalMass":0.985,"logScore":0.015113637810048184}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.985,"1":0.015},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.995,"1":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.98,"1":0.02},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.985,"1":0.015},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.95,"1":0.05},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.985,"2":0.005,"3":0.005,"4":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1764028800000,"validUntil":1764633600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":2,"actual":2,"trainingCount":6567,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2025","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":6.308525,"mean":13.815,"median":10,"bias":11.815,"maeMean":11.815,"maeMedian":8,"low":3,"high":39,"coverage":false,"width":36,"pitLower":0.01,"pitUpper":0.03,"empiricalMass":0.02,"logScore":3.912023005428146},"rollingETAS":{"crps":3.5006000000000004,"mean":7.61,"median":7,"bias":5.61,"maeMean":5.61,"maeMedian":5,"low":2,"high":14,"coverage":true,"width":12,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.06,"empiricalMass":0.06,"logScore":2.8134107167600364},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":6.0379499999999995,"mean":12.41,"median":10,"bias":10.41,"maeMean":10.41,"maeMedian":8,"low":3,"high":31,"coverage":false,"width":28,"pitLower":0.01,"pitUpper":0.04,"empiricalMass":0.03,"logScore":3.506557897319982},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":6.713274999999999,"mean":10.575,"median":10,"bias":8.575,"maeMean":8.575,"maeMedian":8,"low":6,"high":18,"coverage":false,"width":12,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentPoisson":{"crps":8.799750000000001,"mean":12.88,"median":13,"bias":10.88,"maeMean":10.88,"maeMedian":11,"low":7,"high":20,"coverage":false,"width":13,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":2.5817250000000005,"mean":13.295,"median":1,"bias":11.295,"maeMean":11.295,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":63,"coverage":true,"width":63,"pitLower":0.56,"pitUpper":0.625,"empiricalMass":0.065,"logScore":2.7333680090865}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.005,"1":0.005,"2":0.02,"3":0.02,"4":0.035,"5":0.055,"6":0.095,"7":0.095,"8":0.06,"9":0.06,"10":0.08,"11":0.05,"12":0.04,"13":0.02,"14":0.05,"15":0.035,"16":0.025,"17":0.04,"18":0.025,"19":0.03,"20":0.01,"21":0.02,"22":0.01,"23":0.01,"24":0.005,"25":0.005,"26":0.005,"27":0.005,"29":0.015,"33":0.005,"34":0.005,"37":0.005,"39":0.005,"41":0.005,"42":0.005,"46":0.005,"53":0.005,"56":0.01,"62":0.005,"64":0.005,"66":0.005,"93":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"2":0.06,"3":0.08,"4":0.09,"5":0.125,"6":0.095,"7":0.055,"8":0.105,"9":0.105,"10":0.075,"11":0.075,"12":0.025,"13":0.015,"14":0.045,"15":0.02,"16":0.005,"17":0.015,"18":0.005,"20":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.005,"1":0.005,"2":0.03,"3":0.045,"4":0.03,"5":0.045,"6":0.08,"7":0.04,"8":0.09,"9":0.085,"10":0.06,"11":0.045,"12":0.06,"13":0.075,"14":0.025,"15":0.025,"16":0.045,"17":0.055,"18":0.015,"19":0.01,"20":0.01,"21":0.03,"22":0.005,"23":0.005,"26":0.01,"27":0.01,"29":0.005,"31":0.005,"34":0.005,"35":0.005,"36":0.005,"41":0.015,"43":0.005,"44":0.005,"47":0.005,"59":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"3":0.005,"4":0.01,"5":0.015,"6":0.055,"7":0.105,"8":0.09,"9":0.135,"10":0.13,"11":0.1,"12":0.1,"13":0.085,"14":0.045,"15":0.04,"16":0.015,"17":0.015,"18":0.035,"19":0.015,"20":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"6":0.03,"7":0.035,"8":0.055,"9":0.075,"10":0.095,"11":0.06,"12":0.11,"13":0.14,"14":0.095,"15":0.1,"16":0.055,"17":0.035,"18":0.025,"19":0.035,"20":0.015,"21":0.02,"22":0.01,"23":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.475,"1":0.085,"2":0.065,"3":0.03,"4":0.03,"5":0.01,"6":0.005,"7":0.015,"8":0.015,"9":0.01,"10":0.005,"11":0.005,"12":0.005,"14":0.01,"18":0.015,"19":0.005,"20":0.005,"21":0.005,"22":0.01,"23":0.015,"24":0.01,"26":0.01,"28":0.01,"29":0.005,"32":0.005,"34":0.005,"38":0.005,"39":0.01,"40":0.005,"43":0.005,"44":0.01,"45":0.005,"46":0.005,"48":0.005,"50":0.005,"51":0.005,"52":0.005,"57":0.005,"59":0.005,"61":0.005,"63":0.005,"64":0.005,"67":0.005,"79":0.005,"80":0.005,"100":0.005,"103":0.005,"107":0.005,"126":0.005,"183":0.005,"228":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1764028800000,"validUntil":1764633600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":3,"actual":1,"trainingCount":6567,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2025","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.33857500000000007,"mean":1.755,"median":1,"bias":0.7549999999999999,"maeMean":0.7549999999999999,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":7,"coverage":true,"width":7,"pitLower":0.335,"pitUpper":0.63,"empiricalMass":0.295,"logScore":1.2207799226423173},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.2415750000000001,"mean":0.975,"median":1,"bias":-0.025000000000000022,"maeMean":0.025000000000000022,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.415,"pitUpper":0.765,"empiricalMass":0.35,"logScore":1.0498221244986778},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.3232499999999999,"mean":1.47,"median":1,"bias":0.47,"maeMean":0.47,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.365,"pitUpper":0.655,"empiricalMass":0.29,"logScore":1.2378743560016174},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.24380000000000002,"mean":1.48,"median":1,"bias":0.48,"maeMean":0.48,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.2,"pitUpper":0.59,"empiricalMass":0.39,"logScore":0.941608539858445},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.652325,"mean":2.255,"median":2,"bias":1.255,"maeMean":1.255,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.11,"pitUpper":0.345,"empiricalMass":0.235,"logScore":1.448169764837978},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.8112249999999999,"mean":2.735,"median":0,"bias":1.7349999999999999,"maeMean":1.7349999999999999,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":16,"coverage":true,"width":16,"pitLower":0.79,"pitUpper":0.83,"empiricalMass":0.04,"logScore":3.2188758248682006}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.335,"1":0.295,"2":0.15,"3":0.08,"4":0.045,"5":0.02,"6":0.015,"7":0.025,"8":0.01,"10":0.005,"11":0.005,"12":0.005,"13":0.01},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.415,"1":0.35,"2":0.125,"3":0.065,"4":0.045},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.365,"1":0.29,"2":0.12,"3":0.105,"4":0.06,"5":0.02,"6":0.015,"7":0.015,"8":0.005,"10":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.2,"1":0.39,"2":0.24,"3":0.09,"4":0.06,"5":0.02},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.11,"1":0.235,"2":0.245,"3":0.215,"4":0.13,"5":0.04,"6":0.01,"7":0.015},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.79,"1":0.04,"2":0.025,"3":0.015,"4":0.015,"5":0.005,"6":0.005,"7":0.01,"8":0.005,"9":0.01,"11":0.01,"14":0.005,"15":0.005,"16":0.01,"17":0.005,"19":0.005,"22":0.005,"31":0.005,"34":0.005,"37":0.005,"44":0.005,"45":0.005,"58":0.005,"67":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1764028800000,"validUntil":1764633600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":6567,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2025","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.027975,"mean":0.205,"median":0,"bias":0.205,"maeMean":0.205,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.835,"empiricalMass":0.835,"logScore":0.18032355413128162},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.013225,"mean":0.115,"median":0,"bias":0.115,"maeMean":0.115,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.885,"empiricalMass":0.885,"logScore":0.12216763397420753},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.028950000000000004,"mean":0.22,"median":0,"bias":0.22,"maeMean":0.22,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.835,"empiricalMass":0.835,"logScore":0.18032355413128162},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.03842499999999999,"mean":0.215,"median":0,"bias":0.215,"maeMean":0.215,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.805,"empiricalMass":0.805,"logScore":0.21691300156357363},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.09554999999999997,"mean":0.36,"median":0,"bias":0.36,"maeMean":0.36,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.695,"empiricalMass":0.695,"logScore":0.363843433417345},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.01932500000000001,"mean":0.265,"median":0,"bias":0.265,"maeMean":0.265,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.885,"empiricalMass":0.885,"logScore":0.12216763397420753}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.835,"1":0.14,"2":0.015,"3":0.005,"4":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.885,"1":0.115},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.835,"1":0.125,"2":0.03,"3":0.005,"4":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.805,"1":0.175,"2":0.02},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.695,"1":0.255,"2":0.045,"3":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.885,"1":0.055,"2":0.02,"3":0.015,"4":0.01,"5":0.01,"7":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1764028800000,"validUntil":1766620800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":2,"actual":29,"trainingCount":6567,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2025","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":18.116075,"mean":59.255,"median":55,"bias":30.255000000000003,"maeMean":30.255000000000003,"maeMedian":26,"low":30,"high":105,"coverage":false,"width":75,"pitLower":0.025,"pitUpper":0.035,"empiricalMass":0.01,"logScore":4.605170185988091},"rollingETAS":{"crps":2.33925,"mean":32.72,"median":33,"bias":3.719999999999999,"maeMean":3.719999999999999,"maeMedian":4,"low":19,"high":46,"coverage":true,"width":27,"pitLower":0.31,"pitUpper":0.375,"empiricalMass":0.065,"logScore":2.7333680090865},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":19.459175000000002,"mean":62.045,"median":57,"bias":33.045,"maeMean":33.045,"maeMedian":28,"low":28,"high":114,"coverage":true,"width":86,"pitLower":0.05,"pitUpper":0.055,"empiricalMass":0.005,"logScore":5.298317366548036},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":11.898175,"mean":44.525,"median":45,"bias":15.524999999999999,"maeMean":15.524999999999999,"maeMedian":16,"low":34,"high":54,"coverage":false,"width":20,"pitLower":0.005,"pitUpper":0.005,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentPoisson":{"crps":21.7309,"mean":54.99,"median":54,"bias":25.990000000000002,"maeMean":25.990000000000002,"maeMedian":25,"low":43,"high":67,"coverage":false,"width":24,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":9.692275000000002,"mean":48.195,"median":33.5,"bias":19.195,"maeMean":19.195,"maeMedian":4.5,"low":1,"high":148,"coverage":true,"width":147,"pitLower":0.45,"pitUpper":0.455,"empiricalMass":0.005,"logScore":5.298317366548036}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"16":0.005,"17":0.005,"23":0.005,"27":0.005,"28":0.005,"29":0.01,"30":0.025,"31":0.015,"32":0.005,"33":0.01,"34":0.02,"35":0.015,"36":0.015,"37":0.01,"38":0.005,"39":0.035,"40":0.015,"41":0.015,"42":0.03,"43":0.015,"44":0.02,"45":0.015,"46":0.02,"47":0.025,"48":0.03,"49":0.025,"50":0.01,"51":0.02,"52":0.005,"53":0.035,"54":0.015,"55":0.035,"56":0.02,"57":0.015,"58":0.02,"59":0.015,"60":0.02,"61":0.015,"62":0.02,"63":0.005,"64":0.02,"65":0.015,"66":0.015,"68":0.01,"69":0.02,"70":0.005,"71":0.015,"72":0.005,"73":0.015,"74":0.01,"76":0.01,"77":0.02,"78":0.005,"79":0.015,"80":0.005,"82":0.01,"83":0.005,"84":0.01,"85":0.005,"86":0.015,"87":0.005,"90":0.01,"91":0.01,"94":0.01,"95":0.01,"96":0.01,"99":0.005,"105":0.015,"106":0.005,"107":0.01,"111":0.005,"114":0.005,"123":0.005,"130":0.005,"131":0.005,"150":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"11":0.005,"12":0.005,"14":0.005,"15":0.005,"17":0.02,"18":0.005,"19":0.005,"20":0.015,"21":0.01,"23":0.02,"24":0.025,"25":0.025,"26":0.045,"27":0.035,"28":0.085,"29":0.065,"30":0.045,"31":0.035,"32":0.03,"33":0.045,"34":0.055,"35":0.08,"36":0.03,"37":0.045,"38":0.065,"39":0.02,"40":0.035,"41":0.02,"42":0.025,"43":0.015,"44":0.005,"45":0.01,"46":0.015,"47":0.01,"48":0.02,"50":0.005,"52":0.005,"56":0.005,"64":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"14":0.005,"22":0.005,"24":0.005,"25":0.005,"26":0.015,"27":0.005,"28":0.01,"29":0.005,"30":0.01,"31":0.01,"32":0.005,"33":0.015,"34":0.005,"35":0.03,"36":0.005,"37":0.015,"39":0.02,"40":0.025,"41":0.02,"42":0.015,"43":0.02,"44":0.02,"45":0.025,"46":0.025,"47":0.01,"48":0.01,"49":0.015,"50":0.03,"51":0.02,"52":0.015,"53":0.02,"54":0.02,"55":0.01,"56":0.015,"57":0.02,"58":0.025,"59":0.025,"60":0.005,"61":0.005,"62":0.01,"63":0.01,"64":0.015,"65":0.02,"66":0.025,"67":0.02,"68":0.005,"70":0.005,"71":0.02,"72":0.01,"73":0.01,"74":0.015,"75":0.025,"76":0.015,"77":0.005,"78":0.02,"79":0.01,"80":0.005,"81":0.005,"82":0.005,"84":0.005,"85":0.015,"86":0.015,"87":0.01,"88":0.005,"90":0.01,"91":0.015,"92":0.005,"93":0.005,"95":0.01,"97":0.005,"101":0.01,"102":0.005,"111":0.01,"114":0.005,"115":0.005,"121":0.015,"124":0.005,"135":0.005,"144":0.005,"147":0.005,"154":0.005,"171":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"28":0.005,"30":0.005,"31":0.005,"32":0.005,"33":0.02,"34":0.02,"35":0.03,"36":0.045,"37":0.035,"38":0.03,"39":0.05,"40":0.035,"41":0.06,"42":0.015,"43":0.055,"44":0.045,"45":0.055,"46":0.055,"47":0.07,"48":0.06,"49":0.085,"50":0.065,"51":0.035,"52":0.025,"53":0.025,"54":0.02,"57":0.025,"58":0.005,"59":0.005,"60":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"35":0.01,"38":0.005,"39":0.005,"40":0.005,"41":0.005,"42":0.015,"43":0.01,"44":0.015,"45":0.035,"46":0.005,"47":0.03,"48":0.045,"49":0.055,"50":0.035,"51":0.07,"52":0.03,"53":0.1,"54":0.04,"55":0.05,"56":0.03,"57":0.045,"58":0.025,"59":0.03,"60":0.05,"61":0.06,"62":0.035,"63":0.02,"64":0.025,"65":0.015,"66":0.04,"67":0.02,"68":0.01,"70":0.005,"71":0.01,"73":0.005,"74":0.005,"77":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.045,"1":0.01,"2":0.025,"3":0.02,"4":0.02,"5":0.03,"6":0.015,"7":0.015,"8":0.03,"9":0.01,"10":0.005,"11":0.025,"12":0.005,"13":0.01,"14":0.02,"15":0.015,"16":0.005,"18":0.025,"19":0.015,"20":0.03,"21":0.025,"24":0.01,"26":0.01,"27":0.01,"28":0.02,"29":0.005,"30":0.02,"31":0.005,"32":0.01,"33":0.01,"34":0.01,"35":0.01,"36":0.015,"37":0.01,"38":0.005,"39":0.01,"40":0.02,"41":0.01,"42":0.01,"43":0.01,"44":0.01,"45":0.005,"47":0.01,"48":0.01,"49":0.02,"50":0.005,"52":0.005,"54":0.015,"56":0.015,"57":0.005,"58":0.01,"59":0.005,"60":0.015,"62":0.005,"64":0.005,"65":0.01,"67":0.015,"69":0.005,"71":0.005,"72":0.005,"74":0.005,"77":0.005,"78":0.005,"80":0.01,"81":0.005,"85":0.005,"86":0.005,"91":0.005,"92":0.005,"93":0.005,"94":0.005,"96":0.005,"97":0.005,"101":0.005,"104":0.01,"105":0.005,"106":0.005,"111":0.005,"112":0.005,"117":0.01,"128":0.005,"130":0.005,"132":0.005,"134":0.005,"135":0.005,"136":0.01,"146":0.005,"148":0.005,"153":0.005,"167":0.005,"183":0.005,"189":0.005,"203":0.005,"205":0.005,"209":0.005,"215":0.005,"242":0.005,"244":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1764028800000,"validUntil":1766620800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":3,"actual":4,"trainingCount":6567,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2025","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":1.5178250000000002,"mean":7.225,"median":6,"bias":3.2249999999999996,"maeMean":3.2249999999999996,"maeMedian":2,"low":2,"high":16,"coverage":true,"width":14,"pitLower":0.17,"pitUpper":0.285,"empiricalMass":0.115,"logScore":2.162823150618887},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.48592499999999994,"mean":4.215,"median":4,"bias":0.21499999999999986,"maeMean":0.21499999999999986,"maeMedian":0,"low":1,"high":9,"coverage":true,"width":8,"pitLower":0.41,"pitUpper":0.615,"empiricalMass":0.205,"logScore":1.584745299843729},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":1.4937499999999995,"mean":7.28,"median":6,"bias":3.2800000000000002,"maeMean":3.2800000000000002,"maeMedian":2,"low":2,"high":16,"coverage":true,"width":14,"pitLower":0.21,"pitUpper":0.315,"empiricalMass":0.105,"logScore":2.2537949288246137},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":1.2318,"mean":6.22,"median":6,"bias":2.2199999999999998,"maeMean":2.2199999999999998,"maeMedian":2,"low":2,"high":10,"coverage":true,"width":8,"pitLower":0.13,"pitUpper":0.29,"empiricalMass":0.16,"logScore":1.8325814637483102},"recentPoisson":{"crps":5.0986,"mean":10.76,"median":11,"bias":6.76,"maeMean":6.76,"maeMedian":7,"low":6,"high":16,"coverage":false,"width":10,"pitLower":0.01,"pitUpper":0.025,"empiricalMass":0.015,"logScore":4.199705077879927},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":2.033924999999999,"mean":8.645,"median":3,"bias":4.645,"maeMean":4.645,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":38,"coverage":true,"width":38,"pitLower":0.55,"pitUpper":0.6,"empiricalMass":0.05,"logScore":2.995732273553991}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.015,"1":0.03,"2":0.05,"3":0.075,"4":0.115,"5":0.15,"6":0.09,"7":0.065,"8":0.09,"9":0.07,"10":0.07,"11":0.045,"12":0.01,"13":0.025,"14":0.025,"15":0.02,"16":0.015,"17":0.005,"18":0.015,"19":0.005,"20":0.005,"21":0.005,"26":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.005,"1":0.115,"2":0.13,"3":0.16,"4":0.205,"5":0.14,"6":0.115,"7":0.035,"8":0.025,"9":0.035,"10":0.015,"11":0.01,"13":0.01},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.005,"1":0.04,"2":0.065,"3":0.1,"4":0.105,"5":0.105,"6":0.14,"7":0.06,"8":0.06,"9":0.055,"10":0.055,"11":0.035,"12":0.035,"13":0.03,"14":0.035,"15":0.015,"16":0.02,"17":0.015,"18":0.01,"22":0.005,"23":0.005,"38":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"1":0.01,"2":0.05,"3":0.07,"4":0.16,"5":0.115,"6":0.13,"7":0.16,"8":0.12,"9":0.1,"10":0.04,"11":0.03,"12":0.005,"13":0.005,"14":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"3":0.01,"4":0.015,"5":0.01,"6":0.025,"7":0.09,"8":0.09,"9":0.095,"10":0.125,"11":0.125,"12":0.135,"13":0.09,"14":0.095,"15":0.04,"16":0.04,"17":0.01,"22":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.33,"1":0.095,"2":0.07,"3":0.055,"4":0.05,"5":0.035,"6":0.04,"7":0.01,"8":0.035,"9":0.005,"10":0.02,"11":0.015,"12":0.04,"14":0.015,"15":0.01,"17":0.02,"18":0.015,"20":0.01,"21":0.005,"22":0.005,"23":0.01,"26":0.005,"28":0.005,"29":0.01,"30":0.01,"31":0.005,"32":0.005,"36":0.005,"37":0.005,"38":0.01,"41":0.005,"42":0.01,"43":0.01,"45":0.005,"51":0.005,"71":0.005,"80":0.005,"113":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1764028800000,"validUntil":1766620800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":6567,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2025","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.300325,"mean":0.785,"median":1,"bias":0.785,"maeMean":0.785,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.495,"empiricalMass":0.495,"logScore":0.7031975164134467},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.13070000000000004,"mean":0.45,"median":0,"bias":0.45,"maeMean":0.45,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.65,"empiricalMass":0.65,"logScore":0.4307829160924542},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.3676499999999999,"mean":0.96,"median":1,"bias":0.96,"maeMean":0.96,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.465,"empiricalMass":0.465,"logScore":0.7657178733947807},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.35342500000000004,"mean":0.785,"median":1,"bias":0.785,"maeMean":0.785,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.43,"empiricalMass":0.43,"logScore":0.843970070294529},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.7562000000000001,"mean":1.36,"median":1,"bias":1.36,"maeMean":1.36,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.245,"empiricalMass":0.245,"logScore":1.40649706843741},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.30662500000000015,"mean":1.425,"median":0,"bias":1.425,"maeMean":1.425,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":6,"coverage":true,"width":6,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.59,"empiricalMass":0.59,"logScore":0.527632742082372}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.495,"1":0.3,"2":0.15,"3":0.04,"4":0.01,"5":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.65,"1":0.26,"2":0.08,"3":0.01},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.465,"1":0.275,"2":0.15,"3":0.07,"4":0.03,"5":0.005,"6":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.43,"1":0.405,"2":0.13,"3":0.03,"6":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.245,"1":0.36,"2":0.225,"3":0.135,"4":0.03,"5":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.59,"1":0.15,"2":0.08,"3":0.045,"4":0.05,"5":0.015,"6":0.02,"7":0.015,"9":0.005,"10":0.005,"12":0.005,"13":0.005,"15":0.005,"16":0.005,"21":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1766620800000,"validUntil":1766707200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":2,"actual":1,"trainingCount":6596,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2025","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.28237500000000004,"mean":1.435,"median":1,"bias":0.43500000000000005,"maeMean":0.43500000000000005,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.385,"pitUpper":0.71,"empiricalMass":0.325,"logScore":1.1239300966523995},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.2587999999999999,"mean":1.17,"median":1,"bias":0.16999999999999993,"maeMean":0.16999999999999993,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.385,"pitUpper":0.705,"empiricalMass":0.32,"logScore":1.1394342831883648},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.311075,"mean":1.275,"median":1,"bias":0.2749999999999999,"maeMean":0.2749999999999999,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.425,"pitUpper":0.685,"empiricalMass":0.26,"logScore":1.3470736479666092},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.3246500000000001,"mean":1.57,"median":1,"bias":0.5700000000000001,"maeMean":0.5700000000000001,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.26,"pitUpper":0.555,"empiricalMass":0.295,"logScore":1.2207799226423173},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.5248,"mean":1.97,"median":2,"bias":0.97,"maeMean":0.97,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.16,"pitUpper":0.395,"empiricalMass":0.235,"logScore":1.448169764837978},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.7907749999999998,"mean":1.845,"median":0,"bias":0.845,"maeMean":0.845,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":15,"coverage":true,"width":15,"pitLower":0.82,"pitUpper":0.85,"empiricalMass":0.03,"logScore":3.506557897319982}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.385,"1":0.325,"2":0.12,"3":0.055,"4":0.05,"5":0.03,"6":0.01,"8":0.005,"9":0.005,"12":0.01,"18":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.385,"1":0.32,"2":0.155,"3":0.085,"4":0.03,"5":0.015,"7":0.005,"11":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.425,"1":0.26,"2":0.18,"3":0.04,"4":0.05,"5":0.015,"6":0.015,"10":0.005,"11":0.005,"13":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.26,"1":0.295,"2":0.23,"3":0.11,"4":0.065,"5":0.03,"6":0.005,"9":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.16,"1":0.235,"2":0.27,"3":0.195,"4":0.105,"5":0.025,"6":0.005,"7":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.82,"1":0.03,"2":0.02,"3":0.02,"4":0.015,"5":0.01,"6":0.005,"7":0.01,"9":0.01,"11":0.005,"15":0.005,"16":0.005,"18":0.01,"21":0.005,"23":0.005,"24":0.005,"27":0.005,"29":0.005,"34":0.005,"47":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1766620800000,"validUntil":1766707200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":3,"actual":0,"trainingCount":6596,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2025","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.022625000000000006,"mean":0.215,"median":0,"bias":0.215,"maeMean":0.215,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.855,"empiricalMass":0.855,"logScore":0.15665381004537685},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.017125,"mean":0.145,"median":0,"bias":0.145,"maeMean":0.145,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.87,"empiricalMass":0.87,"logScore":0.13926206733350766},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.009150000000000005,"mean":0.11,"median":0,"bias":0.11,"maeMean":0.11,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.905,"empiricalMass":0.905,"logScore":0.0998203352822109},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.025999999999999995,"mean":0.18,"median":0,"bias":0.18,"maeMean":0.18,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.84,"empiricalMass":0.84,"logScore":0.1743533871447778},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.09562500000000002,"mean":0.365,"median":0,"bias":0.365,"maeMean":0.365,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.695,"empiricalMass":0.695,"logScore":0.363843433417345},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.0037750000000000006,"mean":0.145,"median":0,"bias":0.145,"maeMean":0.145,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.95,"empiricalMass":0.95,"logScore":0.05129329438755058}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.855,"1":0.115,"2":0.005,"3":0.02,"6":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.87,"1":0.115,"2":0.015},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.905,"1":0.085,"2":0.005,"3":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.84,"1":0.14,"2":0.02},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.695,"1":0.255,"2":0.04,"3":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.95,"1":0.02,"2":0.02,"3":0.005,"14":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1766620800000,"validUntil":1766707200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":6596,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2025","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.0000999999999999994,"mean":0.01,"median":0,"bias":0.01,"maeMean":0.01,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.99,"empiricalMass":0.99,"logScore":0.01005033585350145},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.0002249999999999995,"mean":0.015,"median":0,"bias":0.015,"maeMean":0.015,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.985,"empiricalMass":0.985,"logScore":0.015113637810048184},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.00002499999999999985,"mean":0.005,"median":0,"bias":0.005,"maeMean":0.005,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.995,"empiricalMass":0.995,"logScore":0.005012541823544286},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.000899999999999998,"mean":0.03,"median":0,"bias":0.03,"maeMean":0.03,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.97,"empiricalMass":0.97,"logScore":0.030459207484708574},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.004900000000000002,"mean":0.07,"median":0,"bias":0.07,"maeMean":0.07,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.93,"empiricalMass":0.93,"logScore":0.07257069283483537},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.0000999999999999994,"mean":0.01,"median":0,"bias":0.01,"maeMean":0.01,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.99,"empiricalMass":0.99,"logScore":0.01005033585350145}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.99,"1":0.01},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.985,"1":0.015},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.995,"1":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.97,"1":0.03},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.93,"1":0.07},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.99,"1":0.01}}},{"issuedAt":1766620800000,"validUntil":1767225600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":2,"actual":6,"trainingCount":6596,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2025","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":2.2202,"mean":10.86,"median":10,"bias":4.859999999999999,"maeMean":4.859999999999999,"maeMedian":4,"low":3,"high":23,"coverage":true,"width":20,"pitLower":0.225,"pitUpper":0.31,"empiricalMass":0.085,"logScore":2.4651040224918206},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.9342000000000001,"mean":7.52,"median":7,"bias":1.5199999999999996,"maeMean":1.5199999999999996,"maeMedian":1,"low":2,"high":16,"coverage":true,"width":14,"pitLower":0.37,"pitUpper":0.47,"empiricalMass":0.1,"logScore":2.3025850929940455},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":2.8000249999999998,"mean":12.785,"median":10,"bias":6.785,"maeMean":6.785,"maeMedian":4,"low":3,"high":34,"coverage":true,"width":31,"pitLower":0.185,"pitUpper":0.235,"empiricalMass":0.05,"logScore":2.995732273553991},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":2.56285,"mean":10.26,"median":10,"bias":4.26,"maeMean":4.26,"maeMedian":4,"low":5,"high":16,"coverage":true,"width":11,"pitLower":0.08,"pitUpper":0.14,"empiricalMass":0.06,"logScore":2.8134107167600364},"recentPoisson":{"crps":5.19175,"mean":13.09,"median":13,"bias":7.09,"maeMean":7.09,"maeMedian":7,"low":8,"high":19,"coverage":false,"width":11,"pitLower":0.015,"pitUpper":0.025,"empiricalMass":0.01,"logScore":4.605170185988091},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":3.2612749999999995,"mean":12.095,"median":3,"bias":6.095000000000001,"maeMean":6.095000000000001,"maeMedian":3,"low":0,"high":56,"coverage":true,"width":56,"pitLower":0.61,"pitUpper":0.63,"empiricalMass":0.02,"logScore":3.912023005428146}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"2":0.04,"3":0.035,"4":0.045,"5":0.105,"6":0.085,"7":0.075,"8":0.06,"9":0.045,"10":0.055,"11":0.06,"12":0.07,"13":0.055,"14":0.03,"15":0.035,"16":0.05,"17":0.025,"18":0.02,"19":0.025,"20":0.005,"21":0.015,"22":0.005,"23":0.01,"25":0.01,"26":0.015,"27":0.005,"28":0.005,"36":0.005,"37":0.005,"49":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.005,"1":0.015,"2":0.04,"3":0.08,"4":0.105,"5":0.125,"6":0.1,"7":0.115,"8":0.095,"9":0.06,"10":0.06,"11":0.055,"12":0.045,"13":0.015,"14":0.015,"15":0.015,"16":0.01,"17":0.01,"18":0.02,"20":0.005,"26":0.005,"28":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"2":0.02,"3":0.045,"4":0.05,"5":0.07,"6":0.05,"7":0.085,"8":0.07,"9":0.075,"10":0.05,"11":0.06,"12":0.055,"13":0.05,"14":0.02,"15":0.065,"16":0.02,"17":0.035,"18":0.025,"19":0.025,"20":0.005,"21":0.005,"22":0.01,"23":0.015,"24":0.01,"26":0.005,"28":0.005,"29":0.005,"30":0.005,"32":0.005,"33":0.005,"34":0.01,"36":0.005,"41":0.005,"42":0.01,"46":0.01,"55":0.005,"57":0.005,"60":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"3":0.005,"4":0.025,"5":0.05,"6":0.06,"7":0.085,"8":0.09,"9":0.125,"10":0.11,"11":0.1,"12":0.105,"13":0.08,"14":0.05,"15":0.05,"16":0.02,"17":0.03,"20":0.01,"23":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"4":0.005,"5":0.01,"6":0.01,"7":0.01,"8":0.04,"9":0.055,"10":0.105,"11":0.105,"12":0.12,"13":0.12,"14":0.105,"15":0.07,"16":0.075,"17":0.06,"18":0.04,"19":0.02,"20":0.025,"21":0.02,"22":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.34,"1":0.095,"2":0.055,"3":0.055,"4":0.045,"5":0.02,"6":0.02,"7":0.01,"8":0.025,"9":0.025,"10":0.015,"11":0.03,"12":0.01,"13":0.005,"14":0.005,"15":0.005,"16":0.005,"17":0.005,"20":0.02,"21":0.005,"22":0.01,"23":0.005,"24":0.005,"25":0.01,"26":0.005,"27":0.01,"29":0.005,"30":0.01,"33":0.01,"34":0.01,"35":0.015,"37":0.01,"42":0.005,"44":0.005,"45":0.005,"46":0.005,"48":0.005,"51":0.005,"54":0.01,"55":0.005,"56":0.005,"57":0.005,"60":0.005,"62":0.005,"64":0.005,"65":0.005,"69":0.005,"75":0.005,"76":0.005,"100":0.005,"124":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1766620800000,"validUntil":1767225600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":3,"actual":0,"trainingCount":6596,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2025","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.47629999999999995,"mean":1.19,"median":1,"bias":1.19,"maeMean":1.19,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.4,"empiricalMass":0.4,"logScore":0.916290731874155},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.36419999999999997,"mean":0.94,"median":1,"bias":0.94,"maeMean":0.94,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.46,"empiricalMass":0.46,"logScore":0.7765287894989963},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.5921750000000001,"mean":1.495,"median":1,"bias":1.495,"maeMean":1.495,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.37,"empiricalMass":0.37,"logScore":0.9942522733438669},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.877,"mean":1.51,"median":1,"bias":1.51,"maeMean":1.51,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.215,"empiricalMass":0.215,"logScore":1.5371172508544744},"recentPoisson":{"crps":1.6145,"mean":2.45,"median":2,"bias":2.45,"maeMean":2.45,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.08,"empiricalMass":0.08,"logScore":2.5257286443082556},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.46842499999999987,"mean":2.915,"median":0,"bias":2.915,"maeMean":2.915,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":18,"coverage":true,"width":18,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.63,"empiricalMass":0.63,"logScore":0.4620354595965587}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.4,"1":0.315,"2":0.125,"3":0.07,"4":0.055,"5":0.025,"6":0.005,"8":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.46,"1":0.29,"2":0.16,"3":0.05,"4":0.02,"5":0.02},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.37,"1":0.265,"2":0.18,"3":0.05,"4":0.055,"5":0.03,"6":0.03,"7":0.005,"8":0.01,"11":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.215,"1":0.31,"2":0.295,"3":0.13,"4":0.035,"5":0.01,"6":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.08,"1":0.205,"2":0.28,"3":0.195,"4":0.145,"5":0.065,"6":0.02,"7":0.005,"8":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.63,"1":0.105,"2":0.045,"3":0.04,"4":0.01,"5":0.005,"6":0.01,"7":0.02,"8":0.015,"9":0.005,"10":0.02,"11":0.015,"12":0.01,"13":0.005,"14":0.005,"17":0.005,"18":0.01,"20":0.005,"22":0.005,"25":0.005,"29":0.005,"31":0.01,"32":0.005,"33":0.005,"34":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1766620800000,"validUntil":1767225600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":6596,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2025","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.015850000000000017,"mean":0.14,"median":0,"bias":0.14,"maeMean":0.14,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.875,"empiricalMass":0.875,"logScore":0.13353139262452263},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.01235,"mean":0.13,"median":0,"bias":0.13,"maeMean":0.13,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.89,"empiricalMass":0.89,"logScore":0.11653381625595151},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.02527500000000002,"mean":0.195,"median":0,"bias":0.195,"maeMean":0.195,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.845,"empiricalMass":0.845,"logScore":0.16841865162496325},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.02252499999999999,"mean":0.155,"median":0,"bias":0.155,"maeMean":0.155,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.85,"empiricalMass":0.85,"logScore":0.16251892949777494},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.05802500000000002,"mean":0.265,"median":0,"bias":0.265,"maeMean":0.265,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.76,"empiricalMass":0.76,"logScore":0.2744368457017603},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.013074999999999976,"mean":0.205,"median":0,"bias":0.205,"maeMean":0.205,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.905,"empiricalMass":0.905,"logScore":0.0998203352822109}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.875,"1":0.11,"2":0.015},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.89,"1":0.095,"2":0.01,"3":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.845,"1":0.12,"2":0.03,"3":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.85,"1":0.145,"2":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.76,"1":0.22,"2":0.015,"3":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.905,"1":0.045,"2":0.02,"3":0.005,"4":0.02,"5":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1766620800000,"validUntil":1769212800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":2,"actual":22,"trainingCount":6596,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2025","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":23.428324999999997,"mean":59.265,"median":52.5,"bias":37.265,"maeMean":37.265,"maeMedian":30.5,"low":28,"high":114,"coverage":false,"width":86,"pitLower":0.015,"pitUpper":0.015,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"rollingETAS":{"crps":6.280199999999999,"mean":32.57,"median":32,"bias":10.57,"maeMean":10.57,"maeMedian":10,"low":21,"high":46,"coverage":true,"width":25,"pitLower":0.07,"pitUpper":0.105,"empiricalMass":0.035,"logScore":3.3524072174927233},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":21.763399999999997,"mean":58.65,"median":51,"bias":36.65,"maeMean":36.65,"maeMedian":29,"low":26,"high":116,"coverage":false,"width":90,"pitLower":0.01,"pitUpper":0.015,"empiricalMass":0.005,"logScore":5.298317366548036},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":20.0557,"mean":45.87,"median":45,"bias":23.869999999999997,"maeMean":23.869999999999997,"maeMedian":23,"low":35,"high":57,"coverage":false,"width":22,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentPoisson":{"crps":30.08375,"mean":56.26,"median":57,"bias":34.26,"maeMean":34.26,"maeMedian":35,"low":44,"high":68,"coverage":false,"width":24,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":13.416699999999999,"mean":55.97,"median":35,"bias":33.97,"maeMean":33.97,"maeMedian":13,"low":1,"high":178,"coverage":true,"width":177,"pitLower":0.375,"pitUpper":0.385,"empiricalMass":0.01,"logScore":4.605170185988091}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"19":0.005,"21":0.01,"25":0.01,"26":0.01,"27":0.01,"28":0.01,"30":0.025,"32":0.025,"33":0.025,"34":0.01,"35":0.005,"36":0.025,"37":0.005,"38":0.015,"39":0.005,"40":0.015,"41":0.03,"42":0.015,"43":0.025,"44":0.045,"45":0.02,"46":0.025,"47":0.01,"48":0.03,"49":0.025,"50":0.01,"51":0.025,"52":0.03,"53":0.01,"54":0.03,"55":0.025,"56":0.015,"57":0.03,"58":0.01,"59":0.015,"60":0.015,"61":0.015,"62":0.01,"63":0.015,"67":0.005,"68":0.01,"69":0.01,"70":0.025,"71":0.02,"72":0.005,"73":0.005,"74":0.005,"75":0.02,"76":0.005,"79":0.015,"81":0.005,"82":0.005,"83":0.005,"85":0.03,"86":0.015,"87":0.01,"88":0.01,"89":0.005,"90":0.005,"91":0.005,"95":0.01,"101":0.005,"102":0.005,"104":0.005,"106":0.005,"111":0.005,"114":0.005,"115":0.005,"117":0.005,"119":0.005,"123":0.01,"127":0.005,"132":0.005,"156":0.005,"172":0.005,"188":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"14":0.005,"16":0.01,"17":0.015,"19":0.01,"21":0.03,"22":0.035,"23":0.04,"24":0.025,"25":0.065,"26":0.045,"27":0.025,"28":0.06,"29":0.025,"30":0.05,"31":0.035,"32":0.035,"33":0.045,"34":0.07,"35":0.04,"36":0.03,"37":0.04,"38":0.01,"39":0.025,"40":0.03,"41":0.035,"42":0.005,"43":0.03,"44":0.05,"45":0.01,"46":0.025,"47":0.015,"48":0.01,"50":0.005,"52":0.005,"56":0.005,"61":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"20":0.01,"22":0.005,"23":0.01,"24":0.01,"25":0.01,"26":0.01,"27":0.025,"28":0.02,"29":0.02,"30":0.005,"32":0.025,"33":0.02,"34":0.01,"35":0.01,"36":0.03,"37":0.015,"38":0.02,"39":0.015,"40":0.03,"41":0.015,"42":0.015,"43":0.01,"44":0.035,"45":0.005,"47":0.04,"48":0.02,"49":0.02,"50":0.035,"51":0.02,"52":0.01,"53":0.01,"54":0.01,"55":0.015,"56":0.01,"57":0.025,"58":0.01,"59":0.015,"60":0.02,"61":0.015,"62":0.01,"63":0.005,"64":0.01,"65":0.005,"66":0.01,"67":0.01,"69":0.005,"70":0.005,"71":0.015,"72":0.015,"73":0.01,"74":0.01,"75":0.01,"80":0.01,"81":0.005,"82":0.01,"83":0.015,"84":0.01,"86":0.01,"87":0.01,"90":0.005,"92":0.01,"93":0.01,"94":0.005,"95":0.01,"96":0.01,"99":0.005,"100":0.01,"103":0.005,"106":0.005,"108":0.005,"111":0.005,"112":0.005,"113":0.005,"115":0.005,"116":0.01,"117":0.005,"119":0.01,"121":0.005,"122":0.005,"128":0.005,"135":0.005,"136":0.005,"153":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"24":0.005,"30":0.005,"31":0.01,"33":0.015,"34":0.01,"35":0.025,"36":0.015,"37":0.015,"38":0.03,"39":0.015,"40":0.04,"41":0.065,"42":0.065,"43":0.07,"44":0.06,"45":0.06,"46":0.04,"47":0.045,"48":0.07,"49":0.045,"50":0.05,"51":0.03,"52":0.065,"53":0.03,"54":0.025,"55":0.02,"56":0.015,"57":0.015,"58":0.015,"60":0.005,"61":0.01,"62":0.005,"64":0.005,"68":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"36":0.005,"39":0.005,"40":0.005,"41":0.015,"43":0.005,"44":0.02,"45":0.03,"46":0.01,"47":0.04,"48":0.03,"49":0.035,"50":0.01,"51":0.045,"52":0.05,"53":0.04,"54":0.04,"55":0.07,"56":0.03,"57":0.085,"58":0.04,"59":0.07,"60":0.055,"61":0.03,"62":0.04,"63":0.025,"64":0.01,"65":0.06,"66":0.02,"67":0.01,"68":0.02,"69":0.01,"70":0.015,"71":0.005,"72":0.01,"73":0.005,"75":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.04,"1":0.02,"2":0.05,"3":0.02,"4":0.02,"5":0.005,"6":0.02,"7":0.015,"8":0.03,"9":0.02,"10":0.02,"11":0.01,"12":0.02,"13":0.005,"14":0.01,"15":0.005,"16":0.005,"17":0.015,"18":0.01,"19":0.005,"20":0.02,"21":0.01,"22":0.01,"23":0.015,"25":0.015,"26":0.005,"28":0.025,"29":0.005,"30":0.005,"31":0.005,"32":0.01,"33":0.02,"35":0.015,"36":0.015,"37":0.01,"38":0.015,"39":0.01,"41":0.005,"42":0.02,"46":0.01,"49":0.015,"50":0.005,"51":0.025,"52":0.005,"53":0.01,"54":0.005,"58":0.005,"61":0.005,"63":0.005,"64":0.015,"66":0.005,"68":0.005,"69":0.01,"70":0.01,"71":0.005,"72":0.01,"73":0.005,"74":0.01,"75":0.005,"82":0.01,"83":0.01,"84":0.005,"88":0.01,"89":0.005,"91":0.015,"94":0.005,"98":0.01,"100":0.005,"102":0.005,"107":0.01,"113":0.005,"115":0.005,"117":0.005,"118":0.005,"123":0.005,"125":0.005,"127":0.005,"134":0.005,"135":0.005,"137":0.01,"142":0.005,"143":0.005,"144":0.005,"152":0.005,"153":0.015,"154":0.005,"168":0.005,"173":0.005,"178":0.005,"182":0.005,"190":0.005,"196":0.005,"213":0.005,"218":0.005,"242":0.005,"283":0.005,"298":0.005,"314":0.005,"329":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1766620800000,"validUntil":1769212800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":3,"actual":1,"trainingCount":6596,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2025","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":3.8387249999999997,"mean":7.295,"median":6,"bias":6.295,"maeMean":6.295,"maeMedian":5,"low":1,"high":14,"coverage":true,"width":13,"pitLower":0.025,"pitUpper":0.075,"empiricalMass":0.05,"logScore":2.995732273553991},"rollingETAS":{"crps":1.9621,"mean":4.31,"median":4,"bias":3.3099999999999996,"maeMean":3.3099999999999996,"maeMedian":3,"low":1,"high":10,"coverage":true,"width":9,"pitLower":0.035,"pitUpper":0.11,"empiricalMass":0.075,"logScore":2.5902671654458267},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":3.4164999999999996,"mean":7.05,"median":6,"bias":6.05,"maeMean":6.05,"maeMedian":5,"low":1,"high":16,"coverage":true,"width":15,"pitLower":0.005,"pitUpper":0.07,"empiricalMass":0.065,"logScore":2.7333680090865},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":4.154125,"mean":6.475,"median":6,"bias":5.475,"maeMean":5.475,"maeMedian":5,"low":3,"high":11,"coverage":false,"width":8,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentPoisson":{"crps":8.106774999999999,"mean":10.815,"median":11,"bias":9.815,"maeMean":9.815,"maeMedian":10,"low":6,"high":17,"coverage":false,"width":11,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":1.9550999999999998,"mean":9.6,"median":2,"bias":8.6,"maeMean":8.6,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":46,"coverage":true,"width":46,"pitLower":0.38,"pitUpper":0.475,"empiricalMass":0.095,"logScore":2.353878387381596}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.025,"1":0.05,"2":0.03,"3":0.095,"4":0.09,"5":0.135,"6":0.08,"7":0.105,"8":0.065,"9":0.05,"10":0.05,"11":0.04,"12":0.025,"13":0.06,"14":0.05,"15":0.01,"16":0.005,"17":0.005,"19":0.01,"20":0.01,"22":0.005,"29":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.035,"1":0.075,"2":0.16,"3":0.135,"4":0.185,"5":0.15,"6":0.115,"7":0.03,"8":0.03,"9":0.03,"10":0.02,"11":0.015,"12":0.015,"13":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.005,"1":0.065,"2":0.11,"3":0.09,"4":0.095,"5":0.105,"6":0.065,"7":0.05,"8":0.105,"9":0.07,"10":0.045,"11":0.035,"12":0.025,"13":0.01,"14":0.02,"15":0.02,"16":0.04,"17":0.015,"18":0.005,"19":0.01,"20":0.005,"24":0.005,"28":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"2":0.015,"3":0.085,"4":0.125,"5":0.125,"6":0.19,"7":0.18,"8":0.08,"9":0.075,"10":0.06,"11":0.035,"12":0.025,"13":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"5":0.03,"6":0.045,"7":0.065,"8":0.1,"9":0.115,"10":0.105,"11":0.145,"12":0.105,"13":0.125,"14":0.075,"15":0.015,"16":0.015,"17":0.035,"18":0.015,"19":0.005,"20":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.38,"1":0.095,"2":0.045,"3":0.05,"4":0.055,"5":0.035,"6":0.025,"7":0.03,"8":0.03,"9":0.01,"10":0.02,"11":0.01,"12":0.015,"13":0.01,"14":0.005,"15":0.02,"16":0.01,"18":0.01,"20":0.01,"21":0.01,"22":0.005,"23":0.005,"24":0.01,"25":0.01,"26":0.005,"31":0.005,"32":0.005,"35":0.005,"39":0.01,"41":0.005,"42":0.005,"46":0.015,"63":0.01,"64":0.005,"65":0.005,"66":0.005,"77":0.005,"129":0.005,"195":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1766620800000,"validUntil":1769212800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":6596,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2025","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.2822,"mean":0.84,"median":0,"bias":0.84,"maeMean":0.84,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.515,"empiricalMass":0.515,"logScore":0.6635883783184009},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.16875000000000007,"mean":0.56,"median":0,"bias":0.56,"maeMean":0.56,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.615,"empiricalMass":0.615,"logScore":0.4861330111756192},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.30205000000000004,"mean":0.86,"median":0,"bias":0.86,"maeMean":0.86,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.51,"empiricalMass":0.51,"logScore":0.6733445532637656},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.33482500000000004,"mean":0.785,"median":1,"bias":0.785,"maeMean":0.785,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.455,"empiricalMass":0.455,"logScore":0.7874578600311866},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.6992749999999999,"mean":1.285,"median":1,"bias":1.285,"maeMean":1.285,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.28,"empiricalMass":0.28,"logScore":1.2729656758128873},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.2080249999999999,"mean":1.015,"median":0,"bias":1.015,"maeMean":1.015,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.66,"empiricalMass":0.66,"logScore":0.4155154439616658}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.515,"1":0.295,"2":0.095,"3":0.055,"4":0.03,"6":0.005,"8":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.615,"1":0.245,"2":0.11,"3":0.025,"4":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.51,"1":0.265,"2":0.125,"3":0.065,"4":0.025,"5":0.01},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.455,"1":0.355,"2":0.15,"3":0.03,"4":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.28,"1":0.315,"2":0.28,"3":0.09,"4":0.035},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.66,"1":0.105,"2":0.09,"3":0.05,"4":0.035,"5":0.015,"6":0.025,"9":0.005,"10":0.01,"14":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1769212800000,"validUntil":1769299200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":2,"actual":0,"trainingCount":6618,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2026","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.4715499999999999,"mean":1.38,"median":1,"bias":1.38,"maeMean":1.38,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.425,"empiricalMass":0.425,"logScore":0.8556661100577202},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.414975,"mean":1.155,"median":1,"bias":1.155,"maeMean":1.155,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.44,"empiricalMass":0.44,"logScore":0.8209805520698302},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.574675,"mean":1.375,"median":1,"bias":1.375,"maeMean":1.375,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.37,"empiricalMass":0.37,"logScore":0.9942522733438669},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.7559499999999999,"mean":1.42,"median":1,"bias":1.42,"maeMean":1.42,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.26,"empiricalMass":0.26,"logScore":1.3470736479666092},"recentPoisson":{"crps":1.1761,"mean":1.93,"median":2,"bias":1.93,"maeMean":1.93,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.16,"empiricalMass":0.16,"logScore":1.8325814637483102},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.11775000000000002,"mean":1.96,"median":0,"bias":1.96,"maeMean":1.96,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":8,"coverage":true,"width":8,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.815,"empiricalMass":0.815,"logScore":0.2045671657412744}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.425,"1":0.245,"2":0.185,"3":0.07,"4":0.035,"5":0.005,"6":0.01,"8":0.005,"9":0.01,"16":0.005,"24":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.44,"1":0.295,"2":0.115,"3":0.07,"4":0.045,"5":0.01,"6":0.015,"10":0.01},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.37,"1":0.25,"2":0.225,"3":0.08,"4":0.03,"5":0.015,"6":0.01,"7":0.005,"8":0.005,"9":0.005,"12":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.26,"1":0.32,"2":0.255,"3":0.1,"4":0.045,"5":0.01,"6":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.16,"1":0.265,"2":0.235,"3":0.185,"4":0.14,"5":0.01,"6":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.815,"1":0.055,"2":0.025,"3":0.01,"4":0.01,"5":0.005,"6":0.005,"7":0.015,"8":0.01,"9":0.005,"11":0.005,"14":0.005,"15":0.005,"17":0.005,"27":0.01,"28":0.005,"33":0.005,"128":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1769212800000,"validUntil":1769299200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":3,"actual":0,"trainingCount":6618,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2026","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.022900000000000004,"mean":0.21,"median":0,"bias":0.21,"maeMean":0.21,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.855,"empiricalMass":0.855,"logScore":0.15665381004537685},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.01822500000000002,"mean":0.195,"median":0,"bias":0.195,"maeMean":0.195,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.87,"empiricalMass":0.87,"logScore":0.13926206733350766},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.01604999999999998,"mean":0.15,"median":0,"bias":0.15,"maeMean":0.15,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.875,"empiricalMass":0.875,"logScore":0.13353139262452263},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.023400000000000004,"mean":0.18,"median":0,"bias":0.18,"maeMean":0.18,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.85,"empiricalMass":0.85,"logScore":0.16251892949777494},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.09302499999999997,"mean":0.355,"median":0,"bias":0.355,"maeMean":0.355,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.7,"empiricalMass":0.7,"logScore":0.35667494393873245},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.006649999999999989,"mean":0.48,"median":0,"bias":0.48,"maeMean":0.48,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.955,"empiricalMass":0.955,"logScore":0.046043938501406846}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.855,"1":0.105,"2":0.025,"3":0.01,"5":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.87,"1":0.1,"2":0.015,"3":0.005,"5":0.01},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.875,"1":0.105,"2":0.015,"3":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.85,"1":0.12,"2":0.03},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.7,"1":0.245,"2":0.055},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.955,"1":0.015,"2":0.01,"4":0.005,"11":0.005,"12":0.005,"62":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1769212800000,"validUntil":1769299200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":6618,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2026","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.0009250000000000022,"mean":0.035,"median":0,"bias":0.035,"maeMean":0.035,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.97,"empiricalMass":0.97,"logScore":0.030459207484708574},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.0002249999999999995,"mean":0.015,"median":0,"bias":0.015,"maeMean":0.015,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.985,"empiricalMass":0.985,"logScore":0.015113637810048184},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.0002249999999999995,"mean":0.015,"median":0,"bias":0.015,"maeMean":0.015,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.985,"empiricalMass":0.985,"logScore":0.015113637810048184},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.002024999999999999,"mean":0.045,"median":0,"bias":0.045,"maeMean":0.045,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.955,"empiricalMass":0.955,"logScore":0.046043938501406846},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.0012250000000000039,"mean":0.035,"median":0,"bias":0.035,"maeMean":0.035,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.965,"empiricalMass":0.965,"logScore":0.03562717764315116},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.00042500000000000177,"mean":0.025,"median":0,"bias":0.025,"maeMean":0.025,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.98,"empiricalMass":0.98,"logScore":0.020202707317519466}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.97,"1":0.025,"2":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.985,"1":0.015},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.985,"1":0.015},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.955,"1":0.045},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.965,"1":0.035},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.98,"1":0.015,"2":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1769212800000,"validUntil":1769817600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":2,"actual":6,"trainingCount":6618,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2026","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":2.3859999999999997,"mean":11.18,"median":9.5,"bias":5.18,"maeMean":5.18,"maeMedian":3.5,"low":3,"high":24,"coverage":true,"width":21,"pitLower":0.23,"pitUpper":0.28,"empiricalMass":0.05,"logScore":2.995732273553991},"rollingETAS":{"crps":1.227725,"mean":8.955,"median":8,"bias":2.955,"maeMean":2.955,"maeMedian":2,"low":2,"high":20,"coverage":true,"width":18,"pitLower":0.305,"pitUpper":0.41,"empiricalMass":0.105,"logScore":2.2537949288246137},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":2.6038249999999996,"mean":12.965,"median":10,"bias":6.965,"maeMean":6.965,"maeMedian":4,"low":3,"high":35,"coverage":true,"width":32,"pitLower":0.225,"pitUpper":0.295,"empiricalMass":0.07,"logScore":2.659260036932778},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":2.700675,"mean":10.245,"median":10,"bias":4.244999999999999,"maeMean":4.244999999999999,"maeMedian":4,"low":5,"high":15,"coverage":true,"width":10,"pitLower":0.085,"pitUpper":0.135,"empiricalMass":0.05,"logScore":2.995732273553991},"recentPoisson":{"crps":5.0756,"mean":13.16,"median":13,"bias":7.16,"maeMean":7.16,"maeMedian":7,"low":7,"high":20,"coverage":false,"width":13,"pitLower":0.005,"pitUpper":0.02,"empiricalMass":0.015,"logScore":4.199705077879927},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":4.022250000000001,"mean":17.25,"median":1,"bias":11.25,"maeMean":11.25,"maeMedian":5,"low":0,"high":90,"coverage":true,"width":90,"pitLower":0.62,"pitUpper":0.66,"empiricalMass":0.04,"logScore":3.2188758248682006}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"1":0.015,"2":0.02,"3":0.03,"4":0.11,"5":0.055,"6":0.05,"7":0.095,"8":0.045,"9":0.08,"10":0.05,"11":0.055,"12":0.045,"13":0.075,"14":0.03,"15":0.03,"16":0.025,"17":0.03,"18":0.02,"19":0.01,"20":0.02,"21":0.02,"22":0.02,"23":0.01,"24":0.015,"25":0.005,"28":0.01,"29":0.005,"33":0.005,"34":0.005,"37":0.005,"39":0.005,"42":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.005,"1":0.025,"2":0.05,"3":0.06,"4":0.075,"5":0.09,"6":0.105,"7":0.08,"8":0.105,"9":0.105,"10":0.05,"11":0.07,"12":0.015,"13":0.025,"14":0.025,"15":0.025,"16":0.015,"17":0.015,"18":0.005,"20":0.005,"21":0.005,"25":0.005,"28":0.01,"30":0.005,"33":0.005,"34":0.01,"41":0.005,"74":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.005,"1":0.005,"2":0.02,"3":0.06,"4":0.035,"5":0.1,"6":0.07,"7":0.065,"8":0.06,"9":0.06,"10":0.08,"11":0.065,"12":0.03,"13":0.055,"14":0.03,"15":0.025,"16":0.01,"17":0.025,"18":0.015,"19":0.015,"20":0.01,"21":0.005,"22":0.015,"24":0.005,"25":0.005,"26":0.03,"28":0.01,"30":0.02,"31":0.005,"32":0.005,"34":0.005,"35":0.005,"37":0.005,"39":0.005,"40":0.005,"42":0.005,"46":0.01,"51":0.005,"62":0.005,"66":0.005,"67":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"2":0.005,"3":0.015,"4":0.02,"5":0.045,"6":0.05,"7":0.055,"8":0.095,"9":0.125,"10":0.14,"11":0.115,"12":0.08,"13":0.07,"14":0.08,"15":0.06,"16":0.02,"17":0.015,"18":0.005,"19":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"5":0.005,"6":0.015,"7":0.035,"8":0.035,"9":0.08,"10":0.07,"11":0.115,"12":0.115,"13":0.105,"14":0.075,"15":0.1,"16":0.08,"17":0.03,"18":0.035,"19":0.05,"20":0.01,"21":0.025,"22":0.015,"23":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.435,"1":0.085,"2":0.04,"3":0.01,"4":0.035,"5":0.015,"6":0.04,"7":0.02,"8":0.005,"9":0.02,"11":0.03,"12":0.005,"13":0.02,"15":0.005,"16":0.01,"17":0.01,"18":0.005,"19":0.01,"20":0.005,"21":0.005,"23":0.005,"24":0.01,"28":0.005,"30":0.005,"34":0.01,"37":0.005,"38":0.005,"39":0.005,"40":0.005,"49":0.005,"53":0.005,"55":0.005,"58":0.005,"61":0.01,"62":0.005,"64":0.005,"66":0.005,"68":0.005,"74":0.01,"84":0.005,"86":0.005,"87":0.01,"90":0.005,"106":0.005,"115":0.005,"118":0.005,"131":0.005,"134":0.005,"136":0.005,"141":0.005,"148":0.005,"189":0.005,"192":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1769212800000,"validUntil":1769817600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":3,"actual":0,"trainingCount":6618,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2026","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.5467500000000001,"mean":1.31,"median":1,"bias":1.31,"maeMean":1.31,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.355,"empiricalMass":0.355,"logScore":1.0356374895067213},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.5327,"mean":1.39,"median":1,"bias":1.39,"maeMean":1.39,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.38,"empiricalMass":0.38,"logScore":0.9675840262617056},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.6632750000000001,"mean":1.705,"median":1,"bias":1.705,"maeMean":1.705,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.345,"empiricalMass":0.345,"logScore":1.0642108619507773},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.8215500000000001,"mean":1.36,"median":1,"bias":1.36,"maeMean":1.36,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.19,"empiricalMass":0.19,"logScore":1.6607312068216509},"recentPoisson":{"crps":1.69835,"mean":2.54,"median":2,"bias":2.54,"maeMean":2.54,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.07,"empiricalMass":0.07,"logScore":2.659260036932778},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.1649750000000001,"mean":1.905,"median":0,"bias":1.905,"maeMean":1.905,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":10,"coverage":true,"width":10,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.775,"empiricalMass":0.775,"logScore":0.25489224962879004}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.355,"1":0.335,"2":0.16,"3":0.06,"4":0.04,"5":0.02,"6":0.01,"7":0.005,"8":0.015},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.38,"1":0.295,"2":0.155,"3":0.085,"4":0.025,"5":0.02,"6":0.02,"7":0.005,"11":0.01,"13":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.345,"1":0.27,"2":0.15,"3":0.105,"4":0.045,"5":0.04,"6":0.005,"8":0.015,"9":0.005,"10":0.005,"11":0.005,"12":0.005,"16":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.19,"1":0.425,"2":0.26,"3":0.085,"4":0.04},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.07,"1":0.185,"2":0.275,"3":0.26,"4":0.11,"5":0.05,"6":0.02,"7":0.025,"8":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.775,"1":0.065,"2":0.02,"3":0.025,"4":0.01,"5":0.015,"6":0.01,"7":0.01,"8":0.005,"9":0.01,"10":0.005,"11":0.005,"14":0.005,"15":0.005,"16":0.005,"18":0.005,"19":0.005,"21":0.005,"28":0.005,"38":0.005,"80":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1769212800000,"validUntil":1769817600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":6618,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2026","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.011149999999999993,"mean":0.12,"median":0,"bias":0.12,"maeMean":0.12,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.895,"empiricalMass":0.895,"logScore":0.11093156070728166},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.02815000000000001,"mean":0.2,"median":0,"bias":0.2,"maeMean":0.2,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.835,"empiricalMass":0.835,"logScore":0.18032355413128162},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.02805000000000002,"mean":0.23,"median":0,"bias":0.23,"maeMean":0.23,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.84,"empiricalMass":0.84,"logScore":0.1743533871447778},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.04685,"mean":0.24,"median":0,"bias":0.24,"maeMean":0.24,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.785,"empiricalMass":0.785,"logScore":0.24207156119972859},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.04930000000000001,"mean":0.25,"median":0,"bias":0.25,"maeMean":0.25,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.78,"empiricalMass":0.78,"logScore":0.2484613592984996},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.023650000000000004,"mean":0.44,"median":0,"bias":0.44,"maeMean":0.44,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.88,"empiricalMass":0.88,"logScore":0.12783337150988489}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.895,"1":0.095,"2":0.005,"3":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.835,"1":0.135,"2":0.025,"3":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.84,"1":0.115,"2":0.025,"3":0.015,"4":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.785,"1":0.19,"2":0.025},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.78,"1":0.19,"2":0.03},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.88,"1":0.065,"2":0.01,"3":0.015,"5":0.005,"7":0.005,"8":0.005,"10":0.01,"22":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1769212800000,"validUntil":1771804800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":2,"actual":34,"trainingCount":6618,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2026","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":12.123275,"mean":57.515,"median":52.5,"bias":23.515,"maeMean":23.515,"maeMedian":18.5,"low":29,"high":105,"coverage":true,"width":76,"pitLower":0.1,"pitUpper":0.115,"empiricalMass":0.015,"logScore":4.199705077879927},"rollingETAS":{"crps":3.4185750000000006,"mean":39.465,"median":34,"bias":5.465000000000003,"maeMean":5.465000000000003,"maeMedian":0,"low":20,"high":78,"coverage":true,"width":58,"pitLower":0.495,"pitUpper":0.515,"empiricalMass":0.02,"logScore":3.912023005428146},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":12.092374999999999,"mean":58.475,"median":52,"bias":24.475,"maeMean":24.475,"maeMedian":18,"low":26,"high":97,"coverage":true,"width":71,"pitLower":0.135,"pitUpper":0.155,"empiricalMass":0.02,"logScore":3.912023005428146},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":7.7947500000000005,"mean":45.33,"median":45,"bias":11.329999999999998,"maeMean":11.329999999999998,"maeMedian":11,"low":35,"high":56,"coverage":false,"width":21,"pitLower":0.01,"pitUpper":0.025,"empiricalMass":0.015,"logScore":4.199705077879927},"recentPoisson":{"crps":19.013275,"mean":57.345,"median":57,"bias":23.345,"maeMean":23.345,"maeMedian":23,"low":45,"high":69,"coverage":false,"width":24,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":12.506950000000003,"mean":62.1,"median":36,"bias":28.1,"maeMean":28.1,"maeMedian":2,"low":1,"high":212,"coverage":true,"width":211,"pitLower":0.485,"pitUpper":0.49,"empiricalMass":0.005,"logScore":5.298317366548036}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"15":0.005,"16":0.005,"20":0.005,"22":0.005,"23":0.015,"26":0.005,"27":0.005,"29":0.02,"30":0.01,"31":0.01,"32":0.005,"33":0.01,"34":0.015,"35":0.02,"36":0.025,"37":0.015,"38":0.01,"39":0.03,"40":0.025,"41":0.025,"42":0.02,"43":0.015,"44":0.02,"45":0.02,"46":0.035,"47":0.035,"48":0.025,"49":0.03,"50":0.005,"51":0.02,"52":0.01,"53":0.035,"54":0.025,"55":0.005,"56":0.005,"57":0.025,"58":0.015,"59":0.02,"60":0.01,"61":0.02,"62":0.02,"63":0.02,"64":0.01,"65":0.01,"66":0.015,"67":0.01,"68":0.015,"69":0.005,"70":0.005,"71":0.01,"73":0.015,"77":0.005,"78":0.015,"79":0.03,"80":0.005,"81":0.02,"82":0.005,"83":0.005,"85":0.01,"86":0.01,"88":0.01,"89":0.005,"90":0.01,"92":0.005,"93":0.005,"94":0.005,"99":0.005,"105":0.005,"110":0.005,"113":0.005,"117":0.01,"118":0.005,"128":0.005,"134":0.005,"146":0.005,"153":0.005,"163":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"14":0.005,"16":0.01,"17":0.01,"18":0.005,"19":0.01,"20":0.02,"21":0.035,"22":0.02,"23":0.03,"24":0.04,"25":0.055,"26":0.01,"27":0.01,"28":0.03,"29":0.07,"30":0.02,"31":0.065,"32":0.03,"33":0.02,"34":0.02,"35":0.02,"36":0.035,"37":0.025,"38":0.025,"39":0.02,"40":0.035,"41":0.02,"42":0.01,"43":0.015,"44":0.015,"45":0.015,"46":0.025,"47":0.01,"49":0.02,"50":0.005,"51":0.015,"52":0.005,"53":0.005,"54":0.005,"56":0.03,"57":0.005,"58":0.01,"59":0.015,"61":0.01,"64":0.005,"65":0.005,"67":0.005,"70":0.005,"71":0.005,"72":0.005,"77":0.005,"78":0.005,"81":0.005,"84":0.005,"88":0.005,"91":0.005,"92":0.005,"100":0.005,"101":0.005,"105":0.005,"151":0.005,"180":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"15":0.005,"17":0.005,"21":0.005,"23":0.01,"24":0.005,"25":0.005,"26":0.015,"29":0.01,"30":0.03,"31":0.015,"32":0.02,"33":0.01,"34":0.02,"35":0.015,"36":0.01,"37":0.01,"38":0.02,"39":0.015,"40":0.01,"41":0.02,"42":0.03,"43":0.03,"44":0.04,"45":0.025,"46":0.01,"47":0.035,"48":0.015,"49":0.01,"50":0.015,"51":0.025,"52":0.025,"53":0.04,"54":0.005,"56":0.015,"58":0.01,"59":0.02,"60":0.015,"61":0.005,"62":0.015,"63":0.015,"65":0.02,"66":0.025,"67":0.01,"68":0.02,"71":0.015,"72":0.02,"73":0.01,"74":0.015,"75":0.01,"76":0.025,"77":0.005,"79":0.01,"80":0.005,"81":0.01,"82":0.01,"84":0.005,"85":0.01,"86":0.01,"88":0.01,"90":0.01,"91":0.005,"92":0.005,"93":0.01,"96":0.01,"97":0.01,"100":0.005,"107":0.005,"110":0.005,"111":0.005,"113":0.005,"124":0.005,"154":0.005,"155":0.005,"207":0.005,"261":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"25":0.005,"30":0.005,"34":0.015,"35":0.03,"36":0.02,"37":0.025,"38":0.04,"39":0.045,"40":0.06,"41":0.05,"42":0.04,"43":0.085,"44":0.07,"45":0.055,"46":0.055,"47":0.045,"48":0.045,"49":0.065,"50":0.04,"51":0.03,"52":0.03,"53":0.04,"54":0.005,"55":0.03,"56":0.02,"57":0.005,"58":0.01,"59":0.015,"60":0.005,"61":0.005,"62":0.005,"66":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"36":0.005,"38":0.005,"39":0.005,"41":0.01,"42":0.005,"43":0.01,"44":0.005,"45":0.005,"46":0.015,"47":0.01,"48":0.04,"49":0.035,"50":0.04,"51":0.045,"52":0.045,"53":0.06,"54":0.02,"55":0.065,"56":0.06,"57":0.045,"58":0.04,"59":0.02,"60":0.01,"61":0.085,"62":0.04,"63":0.05,"64":0.035,"65":0.045,"66":0.03,"67":0.025,"68":0.02,"69":0.02,"70":0.01,"71":0.01,"72":0.005,"73":0.01,"74":0.005,"75":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.025,"1":0.025,"2":0.02,"3":0.025,"4":0.015,"5":0.035,"7":0.015,"8":0.02,"9":0.01,"10":0.01,"11":0.02,"12":0.04,"13":0.025,"14":0.02,"15":0.025,"16":0.005,"17":0.005,"18":0.025,"19":0.005,"20":0.025,"21":0.01,"24":0.015,"26":0.01,"27":0.02,"29":0.01,"30":0.005,"31":0.005,"32":0.01,"33":0.005,"34":0.005,"35":0.005,"36":0.01,"39":0.005,"42":0.005,"43":0.04,"44":0.01,"45":0.005,"47":0.02,"48":0.01,"49":0.01,"50":0.005,"51":0.01,"53":0.01,"54":0.005,"56":0.01,"57":0.005,"58":0.015,"59":0.005,"60":0.005,"63":0.01,"64":0.005,"65":0.005,"66":0.005,"69":0.005,"73":0.02,"74":0.01,"78":0.005,"80":0.015,"83":0.005,"84":0.01,"85":0.005,"87":0.01,"90":0.005,"91":0.005,"94":0.01,"95":0.015,"97":0.005,"101":0.01,"104":0.005,"113":0.005,"117":0.01,"121":0.005,"124":0.005,"129":0.005,"131":0.005,"133":0.005,"140":0.005,"149":0.01,"159":0.01,"163":0.005,"168":0.005,"171":0.005,"180":0.005,"181":0.005,"200":0.005,"207":0.005,"212":0.005,"236":0.005,"254":0.005,"260":0.005,"297":0.005,"300":0.005,"349":0.005,"413":0.005,"420":0.005,"423":0.005,"441":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1769212800000,"validUntil":1771804800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":3,"actual":3,"trainingCount":6618,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2026","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":2.0317999999999996,"mean":6.99,"median":6,"bias":3.99,"maeMean":3.99,"maeMedian":3,"low":1,"high":17,"coverage":true,"width":16,"pitLower":0.155,"pitUpper":0.225,"empiricalMass":0.07,"logScore":2.659260036932778},"rollingETAS":{"crps":1.221425,"mean":6.065,"median":5,"bias":3.0650000000000004,"maeMean":3.0650000000000004,"maeMedian":2,"low":1,"high":14,"coverage":true,"width":13,"pitLower":0.165,"pitUpper":0.33,"empiricalMass":0.165,"logScore":1.8018098050815563},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":1.9546999999999999,"mean":7.18,"median":6,"bias":4.18,"maeMean":4.18,"maeMedian":3,"low":2,"high":16,"coverage":true,"width":14,"pitLower":0.11,"pitUpper":0.245,"empiricalMass":0.135,"logScore":2.0024805005437076},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":2.4068500000000004,"mean":6.74,"median":7,"bias":3.74,"maeMean":3.74,"maeMedian":4,"low":3,"high":11,"coverage":true,"width":8,"pitLower":0.045,"pitUpper":0.11,"empiricalMass":0.065,"logScore":2.7333680090865},"recentPoisson":{"crps":5.593,"mean":10.46,"median":10,"bias":7.460000000000001,"maeMean":7.460000000000001,"maeMedian":7,"low":5,"high":17,"coverage":false,"width":12,"pitLower":0.005,"pitUpper":0.005,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":1.9662750000000004,"mean":8.545,"median":2,"bias":5.545,"maeMean":5.545,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":40,"coverage":true,"width":40,"pitLower":0.535,"pitUpper":0.56,"empiricalMass":0.025,"logScore":3.6888794541139363}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.03,"1":0.045,"2":0.08,"3":0.07,"4":0.1,"5":0.1,"6":0.105,"7":0.08,"8":0.075,"9":0.085,"10":0.045,"11":0.045,"12":0.025,"13":0.03,"14":0.01,"15":0.01,"16":0.01,"17":0.025,"18":0.005,"19":0.01,"21":0.005,"22":0.005,"23":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.01,"1":0.05,"2":0.105,"3":0.165,"4":0.16,"5":0.085,"6":0.105,"7":0.07,"8":0.03,"9":0.04,"10":0.03,"11":0.045,"12":0.01,"13":0.025,"14":0.02,"15":0.005,"16":0.02,"19":0.01,"20":0.005,"30":0.005,"34":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.01,"1":0.03,"2":0.07,"3":0.135,"4":0.115,"5":0.08,"6":0.09,"7":0.085,"8":0.045,"9":0.075,"10":0.07,"11":0.05,"12":0.035,"13":0.02,"14":0.02,"15":0.015,"16":0.01,"17":0.01,"18":0.01,"19":0.01,"23":0.005,"29":0.005,"36":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.005,"1":0.01,"2":0.03,"3":0.065,"4":0.085,"5":0.135,"6":0.155,"7":0.12,"8":0.14,"9":0.11,"10":0.06,"11":0.055,"12":0.02,"13":0.005,"14":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"1":0.005,"4":0.015,"5":0.035,"6":0.055,"7":0.09,"8":0.115,"9":0.08,"10":0.13,"11":0.12,"12":0.09,"13":0.08,"14":0.055,"15":0.055,"16":0.02,"17":0.035,"18":0.01,"19":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.335,"1":0.15,"2":0.05,"3":0.025,"4":0.04,"5":0.08,"6":0.025,"7":0.005,"8":0.015,"9":0.01,"10":0.03,"11":0.01,"12":0.015,"13":0.02,"14":0.005,"15":0.015,"18":0.005,"19":0.03,"20":0.005,"23":0.02,"24":0.005,"27":0.01,"28":0.005,"33":0.005,"36":0.01,"37":0.01,"38":0.01,"40":0.005,"41":0.005,"45":0.005,"46":0.005,"50":0.005,"51":0.005,"53":0.005,"57":0.005,"59":0.005,"88":0.005,"89":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1769212800000,"validUntil":1771804800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":6618,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2026","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.29955,"mean":0.84,"median":0.5,"bias":0.84,"maeMean":0.84,"maeMedian":0.5,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.5,"empiricalMass":0.5,"logScore":0.6931471805599453},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.27215,"mean":0.92,"median":0,"bias":0.92,"maeMean":0.92,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.545,"empiricalMass":0.545,"logScore":0.6069694843188929},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.31237499999999996,"mean":0.865,"median":1,"bias":0.865,"maeMean":0.865,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.485,"empiricalMass":0.485,"logScore":0.7236063880446539},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.4551,"mean":0.9,"median":1,"bias":0.9,"maeMean":0.9,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.365,"empiricalMass":0.365,"logScore":1.0078579253996456},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.711525,"mean":1.355,"median":1,"bias":1.355,"maeMean":1.355,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.27,"empiricalMass":0.27,"logScore":1.3093333199837622},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.21387500000000004,"mean":1.115,"median":0,"bias":1.115,"maeMean":1.115,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":6,"coverage":true,"width":6,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.65,"empiricalMass":0.65,"logScore":0.4307829160924542}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.5,"1":0.3,"2":0.105,"3":0.075,"4":0.015,"9":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.545,"1":0.24,"2":0.1,"3":0.055,"4":0.02,"5":0.02,"6":0.015,"9":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.485,"1":0.315,"2":0.125,"3":0.04,"4":0.025,"6":0.005,"10":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.365,"1":0.41,"2":0.19,"3":0.03,"4":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.27,"1":0.345,"2":0.22,"3":0.11,"4":0.045,"5":0.005,"7":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.65,"1":0.155,"2":0.04,"3":0.025,"4":0.05,"5":0.02,"6":0.03,"7":0.01,"9":0.005,"11":0.005,"12":0.005,"19":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1771804800000,"validUntil":1771891200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":2,"actual":0,"trainingCount":6652,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2026","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.49750000000000005,"mean":1.25,"median":1,"bias":1.25,"maeMean":1.25,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.41,"empiricalMass":0.41,"logScore":0.8915981192837836},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.3795249999999999,"mean":1.035,"median":1,"bias":1.035,"maeMean":1.035,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.445,"empiricalMass":0.445,"logScore":0.8096809968158968},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.49587500000000007,"mean":1.425,"median":1,"bias":1.425,"maeMean":1.425,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.425,"empiricalMass":0.425,"logScore":0.8556661100577202},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.83775,"mean":1.48,"median":1,"bias":1.48,"maeMean":1.48,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.22,"empiricalMass":0.22,"logScore":1.5141277326297755},"recentPoisson":{"crps":1.153675,"mean":1.865,"median":2,"bias":1.865,"maeMean":1.865,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.135,"empiricalMass":0.135,"logScore":2.0024805005437076},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.2161249999999999,"mean":2.795,"median":0,"bias":2.795,"maeMean":2.795,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":17,"coverage":true,"width":17,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.805,"empiricalMass":0.805,"logScore":0.21691300156357363}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.41,"1":0.265,"2":0.155,"3":0.055,"4":0.075,"5":0.035,"7":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.445,"1":0.31,"2":0.155,"3":0.045,"4":0.015,"5":0.02,"7":0.005,"17":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.425,"1":0.255,"2":0.115,"3":0.085,"4":0.055,"5":0.04,"6":0.005,"7":0.005,"10":0.005,"15":0.01},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.22,"1":0.35,"2":0.225,"3":0.16,"4":0.025,"5":0.02},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.135,"1":0.31,"2":0.26,"3":0.2,"4":0.06,"5":0.025,"6":0.005,"8":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.805,"1":0.05,"2":0.015,"3":0.005,"4":0.005,"5":0.01,"6":0.005,"7":0.005,"8":0.01,"10":0.01,"11":0.005,"13":0.005,"14":0.005,"17":0.015,"20":0.01,"24":0.005,"25":0.005,"27":0.005,"31":0.01,"39":0.005,"80":0.005,"91":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1771804800000,"validUntil":1771891200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":3,"actual":0,"trainingCount":6652,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2026","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.012250000000000011,"mean":0.14,"median":0,"bias":0.14,"maeMean":0.14,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.895,"empiricalMass":0.895,"logScore":0.11093156070728166},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.01865,"mean":0.16,"median":0,"bias":0.16,"maeMean":0.16,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.865,"empiricalMass":0.865,"logScore":0.14502577205025774},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.016575000000000006,"mean":0.165,"median":0,"bias":0.165,"maeMean":0.165,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.875,"empiricalMass":0.875,"logScore":0.13353139262452263},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.05084999999999998,"mean":0.24,"median":0,"bias":0.24,"maeMean":0.24,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.775,"empiricalMass":0.775,"logScore":0.25489224962879004},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.10442499999999999,"mean":0.365,"median":0,"bias":0.365,"maeMean":0.365,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.68,"empiricalMass":0.68,"logScore":0.3856624808119846},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.009225000000000039,"mean":0.325,"median":0,"bias":0.325,"maeMean":0.325,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.93,"empiricalMass":0.93,"logScore":0.07257069283483537}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.895,"1":0.07,"2":0.035},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.865,"1":0.115,"2":0.015,"3":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.875,"1":0.095,"2":0.025,"4":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.775,"1":0.21,"2":0.015},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.68,"1":0.275,"2":0.045},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.93,"1":0.04,"2":0.005,"4":0.005,"6":0.005,"8":0.005,"16":0.005,"21":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1771804800000,"validUntil":1771891200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":6652,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2026","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.0000999999999999994,"mean":0.01,"median":0,"bias":0.01,"maeMean":0.01,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.99,"empiricalMass":0.99,"logScore":0.01005033585350145},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.0006250000000000006,"mean":0.025,"median":0,"bias":0.025,"maeMean":0.025,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.975,"empiricalMass":0.975,"logScore":0.025317807984289897},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.000899999999999998,"mean":0.03,"median":0,"bias":0.03,"maeMean":0.03,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.97,"empiricalMass":0.97,"logScore":0.030459207484708574},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.00042500000000000177,"mean":0.025,"median":0,"bias":0.025,"maeMean":0.025,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.98,"empiricalMass":0.98,"logScore":0.020202707317519466},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.002024999999999999,"mean":0.045,"median":0,"bias":0.045,"maeMean":0.045,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.955,"empiricalMass":0.955,"logScore":0.046043938501406846},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.0009500000000000064,"mean":0.08,"median":0,"bias":0.08,"maeMean":0.08,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.985,"empiricalMass":0.985,"logScore":0.015113637810048184}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.99,"1":0.01},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.975,"1":0.025},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.97,"1":0.03},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.98,"1":0.015,"2":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.955,"1":0.045},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.985,"3":0.005,"5":0.005,"8":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1771804800000,"validUntil":1772409600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":2,"actual":2,"trainingCount":6652,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2026","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":5.769575000000001,"mean":12.715,"median":10,"bias":10.715,"maeMean":10.715,"maeMedian":8,"low":2,"high":31,"coverage":true,"width":29,"pitLower":0.025,"pitUpper":0.05,"empiricalMass":0.025,"logScore":3.6888794541139363},"rollingETAS":{"crps":3.340975,"mean":8.175,"median":7,"bias":6.175000000000001,"maeMean":6.175000000000001,"maeMedian":5,"low":2,"high":18,"coverage":true,"width":16,"pitLower":0.015,"pitUpper":0.06,"empiricalMass":0.045,"logScore":3.101092789211817},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":6.006975000000001,"mean":11.665,"median":10,"bias":9.665,"maeMean":9.665,"maeMedian":8,"low":3,"high":24,"coverage":false,"width":21,"pitLower":0.005,"pitUpper":0.02,"empiricalMass":0.015,"logScore":4.199705077879927},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":6.915274999999999,"mean":10.725,"median":11,"bias":8.725,"maeMean":8.725,"maeMedian":9,"low":6,"high":16,"coverage":false,"width":10,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentPoisson":{"crps":9.193975,"mean":13.225,"median":13,"bias":11.225,"maeMean":11.225,"maeMedian":11,"low":8,"high":20,"coverage":false,"width":12,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":3.0168500000000016,"mean":17.3,"median":1,"bias":15.3,"maeMean":15.3,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":94,"coverage":true,"width":94,"pitLower":0.545,"pitUpper":0.575,"empiricalMass":0.03,"logScore":3.506557897319982}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"1":0.025,"2":0.025,"3":0.03,"4":0.055,"5":0.06,"6":0.1,"7":0.055,"8":0.065,"9":0.07,"10":0.04,"11":0.055,"12":0.05,"13":0.025,"14":0.05,"15":0.03,"16":0.035,"17":0.025,"18":0.02,"19":0.005,"20":0.035,"21":0.015,"22":0.01,"23":0.015,"24":0.015,"25":0.005,"26":0.01,"27":0.005,"28":0.005,"30":0.005,"31":0.01,"33":0.005,"34":0.01,"35":0.005,"37":0.005,"38":0.005,"51":0.005,"61":0.005,"66":0.005,"74":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.01,"1":0.005,"2":0.045,"3":0.08,"4":0.12,"5":0.09,"6":0.145,"7":0.12,"8":0.06,"9":0.065,"10":0.035,"11":0.045,"12":0.035,"13":0.015,"14":0.015,"15":0.02,"16":0.005,"17":0.025,"18":0.015,"21":0.01,"23":0.01,"24":0.005,"27":0.005,"28":0.005,"32":0.005,"36":0.005,"43":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.005,"2":0.015,"3":0.04,"4":0.055,"5":0.055,"6":0.045,"7":0.09,"8":0.09,"9":0.08,"10":0.045,"11":0.04,"12":0.055,"13":0.075,"14":0.03,"15":0.035,"16":0.035,"17":0.045,"18":0.025,"19":0.025,"20":0.01,"21":0.01,"22":0.02,"23":0.015,"24":0.01,"25":0.01,"26":0.01,"30":0.005,"32":0.005,"33":0.01,"36":0.005,"39":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"4":0.005,"5":0.01,"6":0.065,"7":0.1,"8":0.09,"9":0.105,"10":0.12,"11":0.155,"12":0.08,"13":0.1,"14":0.03,"15":0.04,"16":0.055,"17":0.015,"18":0.005,"19":0.01,"20":0.015},"recentPoisson":{"6":0.01,"7":0.035,"8":0.06,"9":0.025,"10":0.105,"11":0.105,"12":0.11,"13":0.11,"14":0.125,"15":0.075,"16":0.04,"17":0.06,"18":0.065,"19":0.02,"20":0.015,"21":0.025,"22":0.01,"26":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.48,"1":0.065,"2":0.03,"3":0.045,"4":0.025,"5":0.01,"6":0.025,"7":0.005,"8":0.015,"9":0.015,"11":0.02,"12":0.005,"13":0.01,"14":0.005,"15":0.005,"16":0.015,"19":0.01,"20":0.005,"23":0.005,"24":0.015,"25":0.005,"26":0.015,"27":0.01,"29":0.005,"30":0.015,"32":0.005,"33":0.005,"34":0.005,"38":0.005,"39":0.01,"44":0.01,"46":0.005,"48":0.01,"58":0.005,"70":0.005,"79":0.005,"83":0.005,"88":0.005,"90":0.005,"94":0.005,"96":0.005,"99":0.005,"100":0.005,"111":0.005,"123":0.005,"166":0.005,"211":0.005,"237":0.005,"264":0.005,"288":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1771804800000,"validUntil":1772409600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":3,"actual":0,"trainingCount":6652,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2026","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.5865,"mean":1.56,"median":1,"bias":1.56,"maeMean":1.56,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":6,"coverage":true,"width":6,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.37,"empiricalMass":0.37,"logScore":0.9942522733438669},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.5439999999999999,"mean":1.23,"median":1,"bias":1.23,"maeMean":1.23,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.35,"empiricalMass":0.35,"logScore":1.0498221244986778},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.6400250000000001,"mean":1.405,"median":1,"bias":1.405,"maeMean":1.405,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.33,"empiricalMass":0.33,"logScore":1.1086626245216111},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.826025,"mean":1.425,"median":1,"bias":1.425,"maeMean":1.425,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.215,"empiricalMass":0.215,"logScore":1.5371172508544744},"recentPoisson":{"crps":1.6800750000000002,"mean":2.575,"median":2,"bias":2.575,"maeMean":2.575,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.085,"empiricalMass":0.085,"logScore":2.4651040224918206},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.15882500000000022,"mean":2.345,"median":0,"bias":2.345,"maeMean":2.345,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":10,"coverage":true,"width":10,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.79,"empiricalMass":0.79,"logScore":0.23572233352106983}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.37,"1":0.28,"2":0.145,"3":0.09,"4":0.035,"5":0.025,"6":0.02,"7":0.015,"8":0.005,"10":0.005,"13":0.005,"15":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.35,"1":0.345,"2":0.155,"3":0.08,"4":0.045,"5":0.005,"6":0.015,"8":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.33,"1":0.3,"2":0.16,"3":0.12,"4":0.05,"5":0.02,"6":0.015,"7":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.215,"1":0.365,"2":0.24,"3":0.15,"4":0.02,"5":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.085,"1":0.185,"2":0.27,"3":0.175,"4":0.165,"5":0.07,"6":0.035,"7":0.015},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.79,"1":0.06,"2":0.05,"3":0.005,"4":0.005,"5":0.01,"6":0.015,"8":0.005,"9":0.005,"10":0.005,"14":0.005,"16":0.005,"20":0.005,"25":0.005,"33":0.005,"45":0.01,"50":0.005,"61":0.005,"66":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1771804800000,"validUntil":1772409600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":6652,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2026","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.021050000000000013,"mean":0.19,"median":0,"bias":0.19,"maeMean":0.19,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.86,"empiricalMass":0.86,"logScore":0.15082288973458366},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.021450000000000025,"mean":0.17,"median":0,"bias":0.17,"maeMean":0.17,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.855,"empiricalMass":0.855,"logScore":0.15665381004537685},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.018500000000000016,"mean":0.17,"median":0,"bias":0.17,"maeMean":0.17,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.87,"empiricalMass":0.87,"logScore":0.13926206733350766},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.02445,"mean":0.18,"median":0,"bias":0.18,"maeMean":0.18,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.845,"empiricalMass":0.845,"logScore":0.16841865162496325},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.06855,"mean":0.3,"median":0,"bias":0.3,"maeMean":0.3,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.74,"empiricalMass":0.74,"logScore":0.3011050927839216},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.012275000000000036,"mean":0.265,"median":0,"bias":0.265,"maeMean":0.265,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.905,"empiricalMass":0.905,"logScore":0.0998203352822109}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.86,"1":0.105,"2":0.02,"3":0.015},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.855,"1":0.125,"2":0.015,"3":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.87,"1":0.09,"2":0.04},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.845,"1":0.135,"2":0.015,"3":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.74,"1":0.23,"2":0.025,"4":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.905,"1":0.05,"2":0.025,"3":0.005,"5":0.01,"20":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1771804800000,"validUntil":1774396800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":2,"actual":23,"trainingCount":6652,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2026","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":21.41895,"mean":59.35,"median":50.5,"bias":36.35,"maeMean":36.35,"maeMedian":27.5,"low":26,"high":128,"coverage":false,"width":102,"pitLower":0.025,"pitUpper":0.025,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"rollingETAS":{"crps":7.696100000000001,"mean":39.23,"median":34,"bias":16.229999999999997,"maeMean":16.229999999999997,"maeMedian":11,"low":18,"high":81,"coverage":true,"width":63,"pitLower":0.12,"pitUpper":0.16,"empiricalMass":0.04,"logScore":3.2188758248682006},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":21.918675,"mean":58.985,"median":53,"bias":35.985,"maeMean":35.985,"maeMedian":30,"low":26,"high":104,"coverage":false,"width":78,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.015,"empiricalMass":0.015,"logScore":4.199705077879927},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":19.0291,"mean":45.8,"median":46,"bias":22.799999999999997,"maeMean":22.799999999999997,"maeMedian":23,"low":35,"high":57,"coverage":false,"width":22,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentPoisson":{"crps":29.995825000000004,"mean":57.365,"median":57.5,"bias":34.365,"maeMean":34.365,"maeMedian":34.5,"low":44,"high":71,"coverage":false,"width":27,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":16.018375,"mean":61.345,"median":39,"bias":38.345,"maeMean":38.345,"maeMedian":16,"low":1,"high":184,"coverage":true,"width":183,"pitLower":0.385,"pitUpper":0.39,"empiricalMass":0.005,"logScore":5.298317366548036}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"18":0.005,"19":0.01,"21":0.005,"22":0.005,"25":0.01,"26":0.015,"28":0.025,"30":0.005,"32":0.025,"33":0.02,"34":0.015,"35":0.035,"36":0.015,"37":0.02,"38":0.04,"40":0.015,"41":0.015,"42":0.01,"43":0.025,"44":0.025,"45":0.02,"46":0.01,"47":0.015,"48":0.04,"49":0.045,"50":0.03,"51":0.035,"52":0.01,"53":0.015,"54":0.005,"55":0.01,"56":0.01,"57":0.03,"58":0.005,"59":0.025,"60":0.005,"61":0.02,"62":0.015,"63":0.02,"64":0.01,"67":0.005,"68":0.005,"70":0.01,"71":0.025,"72":0.01,"73":0.005,"74":0.01,"75":0.005,"76":0.01,"79":0.015,"80":0.005,"81":0.005,"82":0.01,"84":0.01,"85":0.01,"87":0.005,"89":0.005,"90":0.005,"93":0.005,"95":0.005,"97":0.01,"98":0.02,"100":0.01,"102":0.005,"103":0.005,"108":0.005,"112":0.005,"118":0.005,"128":0.005,"129":0.005,"134":0.005,"137":0.005,"147":0.005,"149":0.015,"157":0.005,"162":0.005,"167":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"14":0.005,"15":0.005,"16":0.015,"17":0.02,"18":0.015,"19":0.015,"20":0.005,"21":0.015,"22":0.025,"23":0.04,"24":0.02,"25":0.015,"26":0.02,"27":0.055,"28":0.01,"29":0.025,"30":0.015,"31":0.05,"32":0.035,"33":0.07,"34":0.07,"35":0.025,"36":0.025,"37":0.035,"38":0.015,"39":0.015,"40":0.025,"41":0.035,"42":0.01,"43":0.01,"44":0.025,"45":0.01,"47":0.01,"48":0.01,"49":0.005,"50":0.005,"51":0.02,"52":0.01,"54":0.005,"55":0.005,"57":0.01,"58":0.005,"59":0.005,"62":0.005,"63":0.005,"64":0.005,"65":0.015,"66":0.005,"67":0.01,"69":0.005,"70":0.01,"74":0.005,"75":0.005,"77":0.005,"78":0.005,"81":0.005,"82":0.01,"87":0.005,"89":0.005,"90":0.005,"96":0.01,"101":0.005,"103":0.005,"125":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"23":0.015,"24":0.005,"25":0.015,"26":0.015,"27":0.01,"28":0.01,"30":0.015,"32":0.025,"33":0.025,"34":0.005,"35":0.025,"36":0.03,"37":0.01,"38":0.005,"39":0.01,"40":0.025,"41":0.025,"42":0.015,"43":0.015,"44":0.02,"46":0.035,"47":0.025,"48":0.01,"49":0.035,"50":0.03,"51":0.005,"52":0.025,"53":0.025,"54":0.02,"55":0.015,"56":0.03,"57":0.015,"58":0.025,"59":0.01,"60":0.02,"61":0.01,"62":0.02,"63":0.015,"64":0.015,"65":0.005,"66":0.005,"67":0.01,"68":0.015,"69":0.01,"70":0.01,"71":0.015,"72":0.005,"73":0.015,"76":0.01,"79":0.005,"80":0.01,"81":0.01,"84":0.015,"85":0.005,"86":0.02,"88":0.02,"89":0.015,"90":0.01,"91":0.005,"99":0.01,"102":0.005,"103":0.01,"104":0.005,"111":0.01,"113":0.005,"115":0.005,"119":0.005,"120":0.005,"152":0.005,"163":0.005,"191":0.005,"236":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"31":0.01,"32":0.005,"33":0.01,"34":0.02,"35":0.02,"36":0.025,"37":0.025,"38":0.035,"39":0.025,"40":0.04,"41":0.05,"42":0.04,"43":0.075,"44":0.045,"45":0.055,"46":0.07,"47":0.065,"48":0.055,"49":0.025,"50":0.07,"51":0.045,"52":0.04,"53":0.025,"54":0.04,"55":0.015,"56":0.015,"57":0.01,"58":0.005,"59":0.01,"60":0.015,"63":0.01,"67":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"40":0.01,"42":0.005,"43":0.02,"44":0.015,"45":0.025,"46":0.005,"47":0.025,"48":0.01,"49":0.035,"50":0.04,"51":0.055,"52":0.03,"53":0.07,"54":0.035,"55":0.045,"56":0.025,"57":0.05,"58":0.055,"59":0.045,"60":0.06,"61":0.04,"62":0.045,"63":0.045,"64":0.035,"65":0.01,"66":0.05,"67":0.02,"69":0.015,"70":0.025,"71":0.01,"72":0.01,"73":0.03,"75":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.04,"1":0.045,"2":0.01,"3":0.015,"4":0.01,"5":0.02,"6":0.025,"8":0.01,"9":0.025,"10":0.015,"11":0.03,"12":0.025,"13":0.005,"14":0.005,"15":0.015,"16":0.005,"17":0.025,"18":0.01,"19":0.005,"20":0.035,"21":0.005,"22":0.005,"23":0.005,"24":0.005,"25":0.015,"27":0.01,"28":0.005,"29":0.01,"30":0.01,"33":0.02,"34":0.015,"35":0.005,"36":0.005,"38":0.005,"39":0.01,"40":0.01,"41":0.015,"42":0.005,"44":0.005,"46":0.005,"47":0.005,"48":0.01,"54":0.005,"56":0.005,"57":0.01,"59":0.005,"60":0.01,"61":0.005,"62":0.01,"63":0.005,"64":0.01,"65":0.005,"66":0.01,"67":0.005,"71":0.005,"72":0.005,"73":0.005,"74":0.01,"75":0.005,"76":0.01,"78":0.015,"79":0.005,"81":0.005,"82":0.005,"87":0.01,"88":0.01,"91":0.01,"93":0.005,"94":0.01,"96":0.005,"97":0.005,"98":0.015,"99":0.005,"102":0.005,"104":0.005,"105":0.005,"106":0.005,"109":0.005,"116":0.005,"117":0.005,"119":0.005,"123":0.005,"124":0.01,"129":0.02,"131":0.005,"133":0.01,"137":0.005,"139":0.005,"148":0.005,"149":0.005,"157":0.01,"159":0.005,"161":0.005,"173":0.005,"177":0.01,"181":0.005,"182":0.005,"184":0.005,"186":0.005,"197":0.005,"199":0.005,"218":0.005,"225":0.005,"232":0.005,"249":0.005,"258":0.005,"269":0.005,"355":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1771804800000,"validUntil":1774396800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":3,"actual":0,"trainingCount":6652,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2026","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":4.639725,"mean":7.355,"median":6,"bias":7.355,"maeMean":7.355,"maeMedian":6,"low":1,"high":16,"coverage":false,"width":15,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.015,"empiricalMass":0.015,"logScore":4.199705077879927},"rollingETAS":{"crps":4.127224999999999,"mean":6.215,"median":5,"bias":6.215,"maeMean":6.215,"maeMedian":5,"low":2,"high":14,"coverage":false,"width":12,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.01,"empiricalMass":0.01,"logScore":4.605170185988091},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":4.5710500000000005,"mean":7.11,"median":6,"bias":7.11,"maeMean":7.11,"maeMedian":6,"low":2,"high":15,"coverage":false,"width":13,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.025,"empiricalMass":0.025,"logScore":3.6888794541139363},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":5.111975,"mean":6.585,"median":6,"bias":6.585,"maeMean":6.585,"maeMedian":6,"low":3,"high":11,"coverage":false,"width":8,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentPoisson":{"crps":8.526,"mean":10.29,"median":10,"bias":10.29,"maeMean":10.29,"maeMedian":10,"low":6,"high":15,"coverage":false,"width":9,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":1.7855249999999998,"mean":7.535,"median":1,"bias":7.535,"maeMean":7.535,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":38,"coverage":true,"width":38,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.42,"empiricalMass":0.42,"logScore":0.8675005677047231}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.015,"1":0.045,"2":0.08,"3":0.085,"4":0.11,"5":0.095,"6":0.09,"7":0.095,"8":0.07,"9":0.04,"10":0.06,"11":0.05,"12":0.04,"13":0.015,"14":0.01,"15":0.04,"16":0.01,"17":0.005,"18":0.005,"19":0.005,"20":0.005,"22":0.01,"23":0.01,"30":0.005,"32":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.01,"1":0.035,"2":0.07,"3":0.15,"4":0.135,"5":0.135,"6":0.095,"7":0.07,"8":0.08,"9":0.065,"10":0.035,"11":0.03,"12":0.02,"13":0.01,"14":0.02,"15":0.01,"18":0.01,"19":0.005,"20":0.01,"27":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.025,"1":0.02,"2":0.105,"3":0.08,"4":0.09,"5":0.11,"6":0.115,"7":0.08,"8":0.055,"9":0.075,"10":0.04,"11":0.06,"12":0.035,"13":0.02,"14":0.02,"15":0.025,"16":0.01,"18":0.005,"19":0.005,"20":0.005,"21":0.005,"24":0.005,"26":0.005,"34":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"1":0.01,"2":0.025,"3":0.09,"4":0.1,"5":0.145,"6":0.15,"7":0.125,"8":0.13,"9":0.085,"10":0.045,"11":0.055,"12":0.025,"13":0.015},"recentPoisson":{"3":0.005,"4":0.02,"5":0.02,"6":0.05,"7":0.075,"8":0.165,"9":0.1,"10":0.12,"11":0.11,"12":0.09,"13":0.09,"14":0.08,"15":0.03,"16":0.015,"17":0.01,"19":0.005,"20":0.01,"23":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.42,"1":0.085,"2":0.07,"3":0.045,"4":0.045,"5":0.025,"6":0.02,"7":0.03,"8":0.015,"9":0.015,"10":0.02,"11":0.02,"12":0.01,"13":0.02,"14":0.005,"15":0.01,"17":0.02,"21":0.005,"23":0.005,"24":0.015,"25":0.015,"26":0.005,"28":0.005,"33":0.005,"34":0.005,"36":0.005,"37":0.005,"38":0.005,"39":0.01,"42":0.005,"43":0.005,"49":0.015,"65":0.005,"70":0.005,"117":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1771804800000,"validUntil":1774396800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":6652,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2026","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.349375,"mean":0.985,"median":1,"bias":0.985,"maeMean":0.985,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.495,"empiricalMass":0.495,"logScore":0.7031975164134467},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.301075,"mean":0.875,"median":0,"bias":0.875,"maeMean":0.875,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.51,"empiricalMass":0.51,"logScore":0.6733445532637656},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.287725,"mean":0.835,"median":0,"bias":0.835,"maeMean":0.835,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.515,"empiricalMass":0.515,"logScore":0.6635883783184009},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.3974500000000001,"mean":0.92,"median":1,"bias":0.92,"maeMean":0.92,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.425,"empiricalMass":0.425,"logScore":0.8556661100577202},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.744625,"mean":1.295,"median":1,"bias":1.295,"maeMean":1.295,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.24,"empiricalMass":0.24,"logScore":1.4271163556401458},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.35657499999999986,"mean":1.545,"median":0,"bias":1.545,"maeMean":1.545,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":7,"coverage":true,"width":7,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.57,"empiricalMass":0.57,"logScore":0.5621189181535413}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.495,"1":0.245,"2":0.105,"3":0.105,"4":0.035,"5":0.015},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.51,"1":0.27,"2":0.115,"3":0.07,"4":0.02,"5":0.005,"6":0.01},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.515,"1":0.275,"2":0.13,"3":0.04,"4":0.02,"5":0.02},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.425,"1":0.33,"2":0.165,"3":0.06,"4":0.02},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.24,"1":0.365,"2":0.295,"3":0.07,"4":0.02,"5":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.57,"1":0.145,"2":0.08,"3":0.06,"4":0.04,"5":0.025,"6":0.01,"7":0.03,"8":0.005,"9":0.01,"10":0.005,"13":0.01,"15":0.005,"24":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1774396800000,"validUntil":1774483200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":2,"actual":0,"trainingCount":6675,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2026","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.5687749999999999,"mean":1.325,"median":1,"bias":1.325,"maeMean":1.325,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.355,"empiricalMass":0.355,"logScore":1.0356374895067213},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.37807499999999994,"mean":1.065,"median":1,"bias":1.065,"maeMean":1.065,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.43,"empiricalMass":0.43,"logScore":0.843970070294529},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.45665,"mean":1.29,"median":1,"bias":1.29,"maeMean":1.29,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.425,"empiricalMass":0.425,"logScore":0.8556661100577202},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.801825,"mean":1.365,"median":1,"bias":1.365,"maeMean":1.365,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.225,"empiricalMass":0.225,"logScore":1.491654876777717},"recentPoisson":{"crps":1.336275,"mean":2.165,"median":2,"bias":2.165,"maeMean":2.165,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.135,"empiricalMass":0.135,"logScore":2.0024805005437076},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.11530000000000018,"mean":1.85,"median":0,"bias":1.85,"maeMean":1.85,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":11,"coverage":true,"width":11,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.83,"empiricalMass":0.83,"logScore":0.18632957819149348}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.355,"1":0.295,"2":0.205,"3":0.07,"4":0.025,"5":0.025,"6":0.01,"8":0.01,"9":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.43,"1":0.365,"2":0.125,"3":0.035,"4":0.015,"5":0.01,"7":0.005,"10":0.005,"12":0.005,"18":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.425,"1":0.285,"2":0.13,"3":0.065,"4":0.03,"5":0.025,"6":0.005,"7":0.025,"9":0.005,"11":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.225,"1":0.345,"2":0.305,"3":0.1,"4":0.02,"6":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.135,"1":0.22,"2":0.275,"3":0.205,"4":0.08,"5":0.06,"6":0.02,"8":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.83,"1":0.045,"2":0.015,"3":0.015,"4":0.01,"5":0.005,"6":0.01,"8":0.005,"9":0.005,"10":0.005,"11":0.005,"12":0.005,"13":0.005,"14":0.005,"15":0.005,"16":0.005,"17":0.005,"18":0.005,"27":0.005,"60":0.005,"91":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1774396800000,"validUntil":1774483200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":3,"actual":0,"trainingCount":6675,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2026","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.017024999999999985,"mean":0.145,"median":0,"bias":0.145,"maeMean":0.145,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.87,"empiricalMass":0.87,"logScore":0.13926206733350766},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.015375,"mean":0.175,"median":0,"bias":0.175,"maeMean":0.175,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.88,"empiricalMass":0.88,"logScore":0.12783337150988489},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.011675000000000005,"mean":0.135,"median":0,"bias":0.135,"maeMean":0.135,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.895,"empiricalMass":0.895,"logScore":0.11093156070728166},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.033049999999999996,"mean":0.21,"median":0,"bias":0.21,"maeMean":0.21,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.82,"empiricalMass":0.82,"logScore":0.19845093872383832},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.07354999999999998,"mean":0.3,"median":0,"bias":0.3,"maeMean":0.3,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.73,"empiricalMass":0.73,"logScore":0.31471074483970024},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.009774999999999978,"mean":0.365,"median":0,"bias":0.365,"maeMean":0.365,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.94,"empiricalMass":0.94,"logScore":0.06187540371808753}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.87,"1":0.12,"2":0.005,"3":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.88,"1":0.095,"2":0.01,"3":0.005,"4":0.005,"5":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.895,"1":0.08,"2":0.02,"3":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.82,"1":0.155,"2":0.02,"3":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.73,"1":0.245,"2":0.02,"3":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.94,"1":0.02,"2":0.005,"3":0.01,"4":0.01,"15":0.005,"16":0.005,"22":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1774396800000,"validUntil":1774483200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":6675,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2026","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.00002499999999999985,"mean":0.005,"median":0,"bias":0.005,"maeMean":0.005,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.995,"empiricalMass":0.995,"logScore":0.005012541823544286},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.0001250000000000001,"mean":0.015,"median":0,"bias":0.015,"maeMean":0.015,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.99,"empiricalMass":0.99,"logScore":0.01005033585350145},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.0006499999999999978,"mean":0.03,"median":0,"bias":0.03,"maeMean":0.03,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.975,"empiricalMass":0.975,"logScore":0.025317807984289897},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.00040000000000000105,"mean":0.02,"median":0,"bias":0.02,"maeMean":0.02,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.98,"empiricalMass":0.98,"logScore":0.020202707317519466},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.0006250000000000006,"mean":0.025,"median":0,"bias":0.025,"maeMean":0.025,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.975,"empiricalMass":0.975,"logScore":0.025317807984289897},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.003300000000000025,"mean":0.14,"median":0,"bias":0.14,"maeMean":0.14,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.965,"empiricalMass":0.965,"logScore":0.03562717764315116}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.995,"1":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.99,"1":0.005,"2":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.975,"1":0.02,"2":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.98,"1":0.02},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.975,"1":0.025},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.965,"1":0.01,"4":0.015,"5":0.005,"9":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1774396800000,"validUntil":1775001600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":2,"actual":5,"trainingCount":6675,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2026","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":2.9562,"mean":11.71,"median":9,"bias":6.710000000000001,"maeMean":6.710000000000001,"maeMedian":4,"low":3,"high":30,"coverage":true,"width":27,"pitLower":0.125,"pitUpper":0.19,"empiricalMass":0.065,"logScore":2.7333680090865},"rollingETAS":{"crps":1.322225,"mean":8.395,"median":7,"bias":3.3949999999999996,"maeMean":3.3949999999999996,"maeMedian":2,"low":3,"high":17,"coverage":true,"width":14,"pitLower":0.23,"pitUpper":0.31,"empiricalMass":0.08,"logScore":2.5257286443082556},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":2.76145,"mean":11.23,"median":9,"bias":6.23,"maeMean":6.23,"maeMedian":4,"low":3,"high":24,"coverage":true,"width":21,"pitLower":0.145,"pitUpper":0.2,"empiricalMass":0.055,"logScore":2.900422093749666},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":3.76635,"mean":10.66,"median":10.5,"bias":5.66,"maeMean":5.66,"maeMedian":5.5,"low":5,"high":17,"coverage":true,"width":12,"pitLower":0.025,"pitUpper":0.06,"empiricalMass":0.035,"logScore":3.3524072174927233},"recentPoisson":{"crps":6.34445,"mean":13.35,"median":13,"bias":8.35,"maeMean":8.35,"maeMedian":8,"low":8,"high":20,"coverage":false,"width":12,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.005,"empiricalMass":0.005,"logScore":5.298317366548036},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":3.0492749999999997,"mean":10.385,"median":0,"bias":5.385,"maeMean":5.385,"maeMedian":5,"low":0,"high":43,"coverage":true,"width":43,"pitLower":0.725,"pitUpper":0.745,"empiricalMass":0.02,"logScore":3.912023005428146}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"1":0.02,"2":0.025,"3":0.035,"4":0.045,"5":0.065,"6":0.075,"7":0.06,"8":0.095,"9":0.09,"10":0.075,"11":0.055,"12":0.07,"13":0.03,"14":0.04,"15":0.02,"16":0.03,"17":0.02,"18":0.02,"20":0.01,"21":0.02,"22":0.005,"23":0.01,"24":0.015,"26":0.015,"30":0.005,"32":0.01,"33":0.005,"34":0.005,"35":0.005,"37":0.005,"40":0.01,"60":0.005,"78":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"1":0.015,"2":0.03,"3":0.07,"4":0.115,"5":0.08,"6":0.175,"7":0.09,"8":0.095,"9":0.055,"10":0.055,"11":0.055,"12":0.03,"13":0.01,"14":0.025,"15":0.02,"16":0.015,"17":0.015,"19":0.01,"21":0.005,"22":0.01,"27":0.005,"31":0.005,"40":0.005,"50":0.005,"54":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"1":0.01,"2":0.035,"3":0.045,"4":0.055,"5":0.055,"6":0.06,"7":0.075,"8":0.1,"9":0.095,"10":0.075,"11":0.06,"12":0.065,"13":0.055,"14":0.035,"15":0.025,"17":0.03,"18":0.01,"19":0.005,"20":0.025,"21":0.01,"23":0.015,"24":0.01,"28":0.005,"34":0.015,"36":0.01,"43":0.005,"49":0.005,"58":0.005,"74":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"4":0.025,"5":0.035,"6":0.06,"7":0.065,"8":0.08,"9":0.15,"10":0.085,"11":0.105,"12":0.1,"13":0.1,"14":0.06,"15":0.055,"16":0.02,"17":0.025,"18":0.015,"19":0.01,"20":0.005,"21":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"5":0.005,"6":0.01,"7":0.02,"8":0.06,"9":0.045,"10":0.055,"11":0.12,"12":0.12,"13":0.11,"14":0.11,"15":0.08,"16":0.075,"17":0.08,"18":0.03,"19":0.015,"20":0.015,"21":0.035,"22":0.01,"24":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.565,"1":0.075,"2":0.03,"3":0.045,"4":0.01,"5":0.02,"6":0.01,"7":0.02,"8":0.015,"9":0.005,"10":0.005,"12":0.015,"14":0.01,"15":0.005,"16":0.015,"17":0.015,"18":0.005,"21":0.015,"22":0.01,"23":0.005,"24":0.005,"25":0.005,"27":0.005,"28":0.005,"30":0.005,"32":0.01,"35":0.005,"36":0.005,"37":0.005,"43":0.005,"57":0.005,"68":0.005,"78":0.005,"92":0.005,"96":0.005,"113":0.005,"123":0.005,"189":0.005,"198":0.005,"223":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1774396800000,"validUntil":1775001600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":3,"actual":1,"trainingCount":6675,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2026","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.30252500000000004,"mean":1.425,"median":1,"bias":0.42500000000000004,"maeMean":0.42500000000000004,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.375,"pitUpper":0.665,"empiricalMass":0.29,"logScore":1.2378743560016174},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.27822499999999994,"mean":1.215,"median":1,"bias":0.21500000000000008,"maeMean":0.21500000000000008,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.41,"pitUpper":0.715,"empiricalMass":0.305,"logScore":1.1874435023747254},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.30962500000000004,"mean":1.355,"median":1,"bias":0.355,"maeMean":0.355,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.39,"pitUpper":0.65,"empiricalMass":0.26,"logScore":1.3470736479666092},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.27175000000000005,"mean":1.54,"median":1,"bias":0.54,"maeMean":0.54,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.17,"pitUpper":0.54,"empiricalMass":0.37,"logScore":0.9942522733438669},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.7572749999999999,"mean":2.475,"median":2,"bias":1.475,"maeMean":1.475,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.06,"pitUpper":0.29,"empiricalMass":0.23,"logScore":1.4696759700589417},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.7314,"mean":1.43,"median":0,"bias":0.42999999999999994,"maeMean":0.42999999999999994,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":12,"coverage":true,"width":12,"pitLower":0.805,"pitUpper":0.86,"empiricalMass":0.055,"logScore":2.900422093749666}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.375,"1":0.29,"2":0.165,"3":0.065,"4":0.025,"5":0.04,"6":0.01,"7":0.005,"8":0.01,"9":0.015},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.41,"1":0.305,"2":0.155,"3":0.035,"4":0.05,"5":0.03,"9":0.01,"11":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.39,"1":0.26,"2":0.205,"3":0.06,"4":0.025,"5":0.02,"6":0.005,"7":0.02,"8":0.005,"9":0.005,"10":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.17,"1":0.37,"2":0.295,"3":0.105,"4":0.04,"5":0.015,"6":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.06,"1":0.23,"2":0.285,"3":0.19,"4":0.125,"5":0.075,"6":0.015,"7":0.02},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.805,"1":0.055,"2":0.03,"3":0.02,"4":0.015,"6":0.005,"8":0.005,"9":0.005,"11":0.005,"12":0.01,"13":0.005,"14":0.005,"15":0.005,"16":0.01,"17":0.01,"36":0.005,"37":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1774396800000,"validUntil":1775001600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":6675,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2026","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.02174999999999999,"mean":0.18,"median":0,"bias":0.18,"maeMean":0.18,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.855,"empiricalMass":0.855,"logScore":0.15665381004537685},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.015125,"mean":0.155,"median":0,"bias":0.155,"maeMean":0.155,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.88,"empiricalMass":0.88,"logScore":0.12783337150988489},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.013550000000000006,"mean":0.18,"median":0,"bias":0.18,"maeMean":0.18,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.895,"empiricalMass":0.895,"logScore":0.11093156070728166},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.032800000000000024,"mean":0.2,"median":0,"bias":0.2,"maeMean":0.2,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.82,"empiricalMass":0.82,"logScore":0.19845093872383832},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.07467499999999999,"mean":0.345,"median":0,"bias":0.345,"maeMean":0.345,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.735,"empiricalMass":0.735,"logScore":0.3078847797693004},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.01454999999999998,"mean":0.21,"median":0,"bias":0.21,"maeMean":0.21,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.89,"empiricalMass":0.89,"logScore":0.11653381625595151}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.855,"1":0.12,"2":0.015,"3":0.01},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.88,"1":0.095,"2":0.015,"3":0.01},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.895,"1":0.065,"2":0.01,"3":0.025,"4":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.82,"1":0.16,"2":0.02},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.735,"1":0.2,"2":0.05,"3":0.015},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.89,"1":0.075,"2":0.005,"3":0.015,"4":0.01,"8":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1774396800000,"validUntil":1776988800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":2,"actual":24,"trainingCount":6675,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2026","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":18.303325,"mean":57.265,"median":51.5,"bias":33.265,"maeMean":33.265,"maeMedian":27.5,"low":24,"high":106,"coverage":true,"width":82,"pitLower":0.045,"pitUpper":0.05,"empiricalMass":0.005,"logScore":5.298317366548036},"rollingETAS":{"crps":5.258900000000001,"mean":35.48,"median":32,"bias":11.479999999999997,"maeMean":11.479999999999997,"maeMedian":8,"low":18,"high":61,"coverage":true,"width":43,"pitLower":0.185,"pitUpper":0.23,"empiricalMass":0.045,"logScore":3.101092789211817},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":17.276675,"mean":52.355,"median":48.5,"bias":28.354999999999997,"maeMean":28.354999999999997,"maeMedian":24.5,"low":25,"high":96,"coverage":false,"width":71,"pitLower":0.035,"pitUpper":0.045,"empiricalMass":0.01,"logScore":4.605170185988091},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":17.908275000000003,"mean":45.815,"median":45.5,"bias":21.814999999999998,"maeMean":21.814999999999998,"maeMedian":21.5,"low":35,"high":58,"coverage":false,"width":23,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentPoisson":{"crps":29.023650000000004,"mean":57.45,"median":57,"bias":33.45,"maeMean":33.45,"maeMedian":33,"low":45,"high":70,"coverage":false,"width":25,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":15.332624999999997,"mean":61.195,"median":40.5,"bias":37.195,"maeMean":37.195,"maeMedian":16.5,"low":2,"high":175,"coverage":true,"width":173,"pitLower":0.33,"pitUpper":0.34,"empiricalMass":0.01,"logScore":4.605170185988091}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"16":0.005,"17":0.01,"18":0.01,"20":0.005,"21":0.01,"23":0.005,"24":0.005,"25":0.01,"26":0.015,"28":0.03,"29":0.015,"30":0.015,"31":0.02,"32":0.015,"33":0.01,"34":0.02,"36":0.04,"37":0.015,"38":0.03,"39":0.01,"40":0.025,"41":0.01,"42":0.04,"44":0.025,"45":0.02,"46":0.015,"47":0.015,"48":0.01,"49":0.025,"50":0.005,"51":0.015,"52":0.005,"53":0.02,"54":0.02,"55":0.025,"56":0.035,"57":0.025,"58":0.005,"59":0.015,"60":0.015,"61":0.035,"62":0.005,"63":0.005,"64":0.02,"65":0.01,"66":0.005,"67":0.02,"68":0.005,"70":0.005,"72":0.01,"73":0.01,"74":0.015,"75":0.015,"76":0.01,"78":0.015,"81":0.005,"82":0.015,"83":0.005,"84":0.005,"85":0.005,"86":0.005,"87":0.005,"89":0.005,"96":0.005,"97":0.005,"98":0.005,"99":0.005,"100":0.005,"101":0.01,"102":0.005,"105":0.005,"106":0.005,"126":0.005,"128":0.005,"129":0.005,"131":0.005,"134":0.005,"136":0.005,"138":0.005,"208":0.005,"224":0.005,"237":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"14":0.005,"15":0.02,"16":0.015,"18":0.01,"19":0.025,"20":0.02,"21":0.035,"22":0.02,"23":0.035,"24":0.045,"25":0.035,"26":0.02,"27":0.035,"28":0.05,"29":0.02,"30":0.04,"31":0.045,"32":0.06,"33":0.02,"34":0.03,"35":0.035,"36":0.025,"37":0.025,"38":0.015,"39":0.02,"40":0.02,"41":0.045,"42":0.01,"43":0.005,"44":0.01,"45":0.01,"46":0.015,"47":0.01,"48":0.015,"49":0.01,"50":0.02,"51":0.01,"54":0.005,"55":0.01,"56":0.015,"57":0.015,"58":0.005,"59":0.005,"60":0.005,"61":0.005,"64":0.005,"68":0.01,"69":0.01,"73":0.005,"74":0.005,"88":0.005,"117":0.005,"127":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"18":0.005,"19":0.005,"20":0.01,"22":0.015,"24":0.01,"25":0.015,"26":0.005,"27":0.01,"28":0.005,"29":0.01,"30":0.01,"31":0.015,"32":0.01,"33":0.025,"34":0.025,"35":0.025,"36":0.02,"37":0.03,"38":0.025,"39":0.03,"40":0.02,"41":0.025,"42":0.025,"43":0.015,"44":0.01,"45":0.02,"46":0.025,"47":0.03,"48":0.025,"49":0.04,"50":0.015,"51":0.025,"52":0.03,"53":0.025,"54":0.01,"55":0.015,"56":0.01,"57":0.015,"58":0.01,"59":0.015,"61":0.015,"62":0.02,"63":0.01,"64":0.015,"65":0.015,"66":0.005,"67":0.01,"68":0.025,"70":0.005,"71":0.005,"72":0.02,"73":0.005,"74":0.005,"75":0.005,"76":0.005,"77":0.01,"78":0.005,"80":0.005,"81":0.01,"82":0.005,"83":0.005,"84":0.015,"85":0.005,"92":0.005,"93":0.005,"96":0.005,"97":0.005,"104":0.005,"106":0.005,"107":0.005,"108":0.005,"110":0.005,"113":0.005,"119":0.005,"120":0.005,"123":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"31":0.005,"32":0.01,"33":0.01,"34":0.01,"35":0.03,"36":0.015,"37":0.035,"38":0.035,"39":0.045,"40":0.035,"41":0.05,"42":0.06,"43":0.05,"44":0.06,"45":0.05,"46":0.06,"47":0.055,"48":0.04,"49":0.05,"50":0.045,"51":0.05,"52":0.045,"53":0.035,"54":0.01,"55":0.025,"56":0.02,"57":0.01,"58":0.01,"59":0.01,"60":0.01,"61":0.005,"62":0.005,"64":0.005,"65":0.005,"69":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"36":0.005,"37":0.005,"41":0.01,"43":0.02,"45":0.02,"46":0.025,"47":0.005,"48":0.035,"49":0.05,"50":0.02,"51":0.025,"52":0.045,"53":0.045,"54":0.04,"55":0.07,"56":0.03,"57":0.06,"58":0.03,"59":0.04,"60":0.07,"61":0.055,"62":0.05,"63":0.045,"64":0.025,"65":0.045,"66":0.03,"67":0.01,"68":0.01,"69":0.015,"70":0.025,"71":0.005,"72":0.005,"73":0.005,"74":0.01,"80":0.005,"82":0.005,"86":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.005,"1":0.03,"2":0.035,"3":0.035,"4":0.025,"5":0.005,"6":0.01,"7":0.015,"8":0.01,"9":0.005,"10":0.005,"11":0.01,"12":0.025,"13":0.02,"14":0.005,"16":0.015,"17":0.01,"18":0.01,"19":0.015,"20":0.01,"21":0.01,"22":0.01,"23":0.01,"24":0.01,"25":0.015,"26":0.005,"27":0.01,"29":0.005,"30":0.01,"31":0.015,"33":0.015,"34":0.01,"35":0.005,"36":0.015,"37":0.005,"38":0.015,"39":0.015,"40":0.02,"41":0.005,"42":0.01,"43":0.005,"44":0.005,"45":0.005,"47":0.015,"49":0.005,"50":0.01,"51":0.005,"52":0.005,"55":0.01,"56":0.01,"57":0.01,"58":0.005,"59":0.01,"60":0.005,"61":0.015,"65":0.015,"66":0.005,"67":0.01,"68":0.005,"69":0.005,"70":0.015,"71":0.005,"72":0.005,"73":0.01,"74":0.005,"78":0.01,"82":0.01,"83":0.005,"84":0.005,"86":0.005,"90":0.005,"91":0.005,"94":0.015,"97":0.01,"98":0.005,"102":0.005,"103":0.01,"104":0.01,"108":0.005,"109":0.005,"110":0.005,"111":0.005,"112":0.005,"113":0.005,"116":0.005,"120":0.005,"121":0.005,"123":0.005,"129":0.01,"132":0.005,"134":0.005,"136":0.01,"146":0.005,"147":0.005,"148":0.005,"152":0.005,"153":0.01,"154":0.005,"159":0.005,"162":0.005,"164":0.005,"175":0.005,"177":0.005,"185":0.005,"201":0.005,"202":0.005,"223":0.005,"224":0.005,"252":0.005,"257":0.005,"295":0.005,"465":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1774396800000,"validUntil":1776988800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":3,"actual":4,"trainingCount":6675,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2026","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":1.376875,"mean":7.215,"median":6,"bias":3.215,"maeMean":3.215,"maeMedian":2,"low":1,"high":15,"coverage":true,"width":14,"pitLower":0.215,"pitUpper":0.335,"empiricalMass":0.12,"logScore":2.120263536200091},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.7351749999999999,"mean":5.175,"median":5,"bias":1.1749999999999998,"maeMean":1.1749999999999998,"maeMedian":1,"low":1,"high":11,"coverage":true,"width":10,"pitLower":0.325,"pitUpper":0.465,"empiricalMass":0.14,"logScore":1.9661128563728327},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":1.136075,"mean":6.285,"median":6,"bias":2.285,"maeMean":2.285,"maeMedian":2,"low":1,"high":13,"coverage":true,"width":12,"pitLower":0.235,"pitUpper":0.355,"empiricalMass":0.12,"logScore":2.120263536200091},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":1.4453749999999999,"mean":6.525,"median":7,"bias":2.5250000000000004,"maeMean":2.5250000000000004,"maeMedian":3,"low":3,"high":10,"coverage":true,"width":7,"pitLower":0.08,"pitUpper":0.215,"empiricalMass":0.135,"logScore":2.0024805005437076},"recentPoisson":{"crps":4.2391000000000005,"mean":9.96,"median":10,"bias":5.960000000000001,"maeMean":5.960000000000001,"maeMedian":6,"low":5,"high":15,"coverage":false,"width":10,"pitLower":0.01,"pitUpper":0.035,"empiricalMass":0.025,"logScore":3.6888794541139363},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":2.919224999999999,"mean":12.565,"median":3,"bias":8.565,"maeMean":8.565,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":55,"coverage":true,"width":55,"pitLower":0.52,"pitUpper":0.56,"empiricalMass":0.04,"logScore":3.2188758248682006}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.005,"1":0.05,"2":0.08,"3":0.08,"4":0.12,"5":0.13,"6":0.065,"7":0.095,"8":0.09,"9":0.07,"10":0.045,"11":0.04,"12":0.01,"13":0.015,"14":0.025,"15":0.035,"16":0.005,"17":0.005,"20":0.005,"24":0.005,"28":0.005,"29":0.005,"30":0.005,"33":0.01},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.03,"1":0.085,"2":0.11,"3":0.1,"4":0.14,"5":0.175,"6":0.09,"7":0.07,"8":0.06,"9":0.055,"10":0.025,"11":0.02,"12":0.01,"15":0.01,"17":0.005,"18":0.005,"21":0.005,"22":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.02,"1":0.055,"2":0.06,"3":0.1,"4":0.12,"5":0.12,"6":0.125,"7":0.095,"8":0.095,"9":0.045,"10":0.03,"11":0.035,"12":0.03,"13":0.02,"14":0.005,"15":0.005,"16":0.01,"17":0.015,"19":0.015},"expandingPoisson":{"1":0.015,"2":0.015,"3":0.05,"4":0.135,"5":0.155,"6":0.11,"7":0.205,"8":0.115,"9":0.09,"10":0.06,"11":0.03,"12":0.015,"16":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"2":0.005,"3":0.005,"4":0.025,"5":0.035,"6":0.055,"7":0.07,"8":0.115,"9":0.175,"10":0.145,"11":0.1,"12":0.065,"13":0.05,"14":0.06,"15":0.055,"16":0.01,"17":0.01,"18":0.01,"19":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.37,"1":0.07,"2":0.03,"3":0.05,"4":0.04,"5":0.03,"6":0.01,"7":0.04,"8":0.025,"9":0.005,"10":0.015,"11":0.01,"12":0.01,"13":0.02,"14":0.015,"15":0.015,"16":0.015,"17":0.005,"18":0.01,"19":0.02,"20":0.005,"21":0.005,"22":0.005,"25":0.015,"28":0.01,"29":0.005,"30":0.01,"31":0.005,"32":0.005,"33":0.005,"34":0.005,"35":0.005,"36":0.015,"38":0.005,"39":0.005,"40":0.005,"41":0.005,"42":0.005,"44":0.005,"51":0.005,"53":0.01,"55":0.005,"61":0.005,"62":0.005,"70":0.005,"72":0.005,"73":0.005,"83":0.005,"105":0.005,"110":0.005,"118":0.005,"120":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1774396800000,"validUntil":1776988800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":6675,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2026","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.25897499999999996,"mean":0.865,"median":0,"bias":0.865,"maeMean":0.865,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.545,"empiricalMass":0.545,"logScore":0.6069694843188929},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.25935,"mean":0.75,"median":0,"bias":0.75,"maeMean":0.75,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.525,"empiricalMass":0.525,"logScore":0.6443570163905132},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.23507499999999998,"mean":0.705,"median":0,"bias":0.705,"maeMean":0.705,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.55,"empiricalMass":0.55,"logScore":0.5978370007556204},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.27372500000000005,"mean":0.685,"median":0.5,"bias":0.685,"maeMean":0.685,"maeMedian":0.5,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.5,"empiricalMass":0.5,"logScore":0.6931471805599453},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.6295000000000001,"mean":1.26,"median":1,"bias":1.26,"maeMean":1.26,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.31,"empiricalMass":0.31,"logScore":1.171182981502945},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.18467500000000003,"mean":1.165,"median":0,"bias":1.165,"maeMean":1.165,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":7,"coverage":true,"width":7,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.7,"empiricalMass":0.7,"logScore":0.35667494393873245}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.545,"1":0.27,"2":0.07,"3":0.06,"4":0.02,"5":0.02,"6":0.01,"7":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.525,"1":0.3,"2":0.125,"3":0.035,"5":0.005,"6":0.005,"8":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.55,"1":0.28,"2":0.115,"3":0.03,"4":0.02,"5":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.5,"1":0.35,"2":0.115,"3":0.035},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.31,"1":0.325,"2":0.235,"3":0.075,"4":0.04,"5":0.01,"6":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.7,"1":0.11,"2":0.05,"3":0.015,"4":0.04,"5":0.01,"6":0.015,"7":0.01,"8":0.005,"9":0.01,"10":0.01,"11":0.005,"12":0.01,"13":0.005,"14":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1776988800000,"validUntil":1777075200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":2,"actual":0,"trainingCount":6699,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2026","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.5005499999999999,"mean":1.48,"median":1,"bias":1.48,"maeMean":1.48,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.425,"empiricalMass":0.425,"logScore":0.8556661100577202},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.400475,"mean":1.095,"median":1,"bias":1.095,"maeMean":1.095,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.435,"empiricalMass":0.435,"logScore":0.8324092478934529},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.3905749999999999,"mean":1.055,"median":1,"bias":1.055,"maeMean":1.055,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.425,"empiricalMass":0.425,"logScore":0.8556661100577202},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.7522500000000001,"mean":1.36,"median":1,"bias":1.36,"maeMean":1.36,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.24,"empiricalMass":0.24,"logScore":1.4271163556401458},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.82035,"mean":1.47,"median":1,"bias":1.47,"maeMean":1.47,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.215,"empiricalMass":0.215,"logScore":1.5371172508544744},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.35267499999999985,"mean":1.545,"median":0,"bias":1.545,"maeMean":1.545,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":8,"coverage":true,"width":8,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.58,"empiricalMass":0.58,"logScore":0.5447271754416722}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.425,"1":0.24,"2":0.15,"3":0.065,"4":0.05,"5":0.025,"6":0.015,"7":0.01,"8":0.01,"15":0.005,"21":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.435,"1":0.305,"2":0.16,"3":0.06,"4":0.015,"5":0.01,"11":0.01,"14":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.425,"1":0.36,"2":0.12,"3":0.04,"4":0.03,"5":0.01,"8":0.005,"11":0.005,"14":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.24,"1":0.38,"2":0.215,"3":0.11,"4":0.055},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.215,"1":0.375,"2":0.235,"3":0.105,"4":0.05,"5":0.01,"6":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.58,"1":0.135,"2":0.08,"3":0.065,"4":0.025,"5":0.035,"6":0.01,"7":0.015,"8":0.005,"9":0.01,"10":0.015,"12":0.005,"13":0.01,"14":0.005,"15":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1776988800000,"validUntil":1777075200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":3,"actual":0,"trainingCount":6699,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2026","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.017274999999999985,"mean":0.175,"median":0,"bias":0.175,"maeMean":0.175,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.875,"empiricalMass":0.875,"logScore":0.13353139262452263},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.01100000000000001,"mean":0.14,"median":0,"bias":0.14,"maeMean":0.14,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.9,"empiricalMass":0.9,"logScore":0.10536051565782628},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.007500000000000007,"mean":0.11,"median":0,"bias":0.11,"maeMean":0.11,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.915,"empiricalMass":0.915,"logScore":0.0888312137066157},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.02890000000000001,"mean":0.17,"median":0,"bias":0.17,"maeMean":0.17,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.83,"empiricalMass":0.83,"logScore":0.18632957819149348},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.03770000000000001,"mean":0.23,"median":0,"bias":0.23,"maeMean":0.23,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.81,"empiricalMass":0.81,"logScore":0.21072103131565253},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.018700000000000022,"mean":0.23,"median":0,"bias":0.23,"maeMean":0.23,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.875,"empiricalMass":0.875,"logScore":0.13353139262452263}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.875,"1":0.085,"2":0.035,"4":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.9,"1":0.07,"2":0.02,"3":0.01},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.915,"1":0.07,"2":0.01,"4":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.83,"1":0.17},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.81,"1":0.15,"2":0.04},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.875,"1":0.08,"2":0.02,"3":0.01,"4":0.005,"6":0.01}}},{"issuedAt":1776988800000,"validUntil":1777075200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":6699,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2026","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.0006250000000000006,"mean":0.025,"median":0,"bias":0.025,"maeMean":0.025,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.975,"empiricalMass":0.975,"logScore":0.025317807984289897},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.0010000000000000009,"mean":0.04,"median":0,"bias":0.04,"maeMean":0.04,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.97,"empiricalMass":0.97,"logScore":0.030459207484708574},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0,"mean":0,"median":0,"bias":0,"maeMean":0,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":1,"empiricalMass":1,"logScore":0},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.0006250000000000006,"mean":0.025,"median":0,"bias":0.025,"maeMean":0.025,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.975,"empiricalMass":0.975,"logScore":0.025317807984289897},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.0002249999999999995,"mean":0.015,"median":0,"bias":0.015,"maeMean":0.015,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.985,"empiricalMass":0.985,"logScore":0.015113637810048184},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.00042500000000000177,"mean":0.025,"median":0,"bias":0.025,"maeMean":0.025,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.98,"empiricalMass":0.98,"logScore":0.020202707317519466}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.975,"1":0.025},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.97,"1":0.02,"2":0.01},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":1},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.975,"1":0.025},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.985,"1":0.015},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.98,"1":0.015,"2":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1776988800000,"validUntil":1777593600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":2,"actual":5,"trainingCount":6699,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2026","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":2.8607750000000003,"mean":11.585,"median":9,"bias":6.585000000000001,"maeMean":6.585000000000001,"maeMedian":4,"low":3,"high":28,"coverage":true,"width":25,"pitLower":0.155,"pitUpper":0.22,"empiricalMass":0.065,"logScore":2.7333680090865},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.9803999999999999,"mean":7.37,"median":6,"bias":2.37,"maeMean":2.37,"maeMedian":1,"low":1,"high":17,"coverage":true,"width":16,"pitLower":0.3,"pitUpper":0.42,"empiricalMass":0.12,"logScore":2.120263536200091},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":2.885325,"mean":11.535,"median":10,"bias":6.535,"maeMean":6.535,"maeMedian":5,"low":3,"high":27,"coverage":true,"width":24,"pitLower":0.145,"pitUpper":0.195,"empiricalMass":0.05,"logScore":2.995732273553991},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":3.925825,"mean":10.655,"median":10,"bias":5.654999999999999,"maeMean":5.654999999999999,"maeMedian":5,"low":6,"high":16,"coverage":false,"width":10,"pitLower":0.015,"pitUpper":0.02,"empiricalMass":0.005,"logScore":5.298317366548036},"recentPoisson":{"crps":4.266674999999999,"mean":11.125,"median":11,"bias":6.125,"maeMean":6.125,"maeMedian":6,"low":6,"high":17,"coverage":false,"width":11,"pitLower":0.015,"pitUpper":0.025,"empiricalMass":0.01,"logScore":4.605170185988091},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":2.004149999999999,"mean":9.25,"median":5,"bias":4.25,"maeMean":4.25,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":36,"coverage":true,"width":36,"pitLower":0.475,"pitUpper":0.515,"empiricalMass":0.04,"logScore":3.2188758248682006}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"1":0.025,"2":0.015,"3":0.045,"4":0.07,"5":0.065,"6":0.07,"7":0.08,"8":0.06,"9":0.075,"10":0.07,"11":0.045,"12":0.075,"13":0.04,"14":0.05,"15":0.015,"16":0.035,"17":0.01,"18":0.015,"19":0.005,"20":0.02,"21":0.01,"22":0.005,"23":0.01,"24":0.005,"25":0.015,"27":0.01,"28":0.01,"32":0.005,"33":0.005,"35":0.005,"37":0.01,"38":0.005,"44":0.005,"45":0.005,"48":0.005,"56":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.005,"1":0.045,"2":0.05,"3":0.09,"4":0.11,"5":0.12,"6":0.14,"7":0.09,"8":0.075,"9":0.065,"10":0.055,"11":0.04,"12":0.035,"13":0.015,"14":0.005,"15":0.005,"17":0.01,"18":0.01,"20":0.01,"22":0.005,"25":0.005,"47":0.005,"48":0.005,"50":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.005,"1":0.02,"2":0.015,"3":0.04,"4":0.065,"5":0.05,"6":0.115,"7":0.085,"8":0.05,"9":0.05,"10":0.075,"11":0.035,"12":0.065,"13":0.06,"14":0.035,"15":0.03,"16":0.02,"17":0.01,"18":0.015,"19":0.025,"20":0.01,"21":0.015,"22":0.015,"23":0.01,"24":0.015,"25":0.005,"26":0.005,"27":0.01,"30":0.01,"31":0.005,"34":0.005,"35":0.005,"37":0.005,"38":0.005,"43":0.005,"49":0.005,"51":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"3":0.01,"4":0.005,"5":0.005,"6":0.055,"7":0.065,"8":0.145,"9":0.115,"10":0.14,"11":0.09,"12":0.085,"13":0.065,"14":0.1,"15":0.055,"16":0.03,"17":0.015,"18":0.005,"19":0.01,"21":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"2":0.005,"3":0.005,"4":0.005,"5":0.01,"6":0.04,"7":0.065,"8":0.09,"9":0.145,"10":0.105,"11":0.105,"12":0.09,"13":0.11,"14":0.055,"15":0.055,"16":0.05,"17":0.025,"18":0.02,"19":0.01,"20":0.005,"25":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.155,"1":0.115,"2":0.075,"3":0.085,"4":0.045,"5":0.04,"6":0.055,"7":0.035,"8":0.03,"9":0.02,"10":0.055,"11":0.04,"12":0.015,"13":0.01,"14":0.02,"15":0.01,"16":0.015,"17":0.025,"18":0.02,"20":0.005,"21":0.015,"22":0.025,"24":0.005,"25":0.005,"27":0.005,"29":0.005,"31":0.005,"33":0.005,"34":0.005,"36":0.01,"37":0.005,"43":0.005,"44":0.005,"46":0.005,"47":0.005,"49":0.005,"56":0.005,"62":0.005,"68":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1776988800000,"validUntil":1777593600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":3,"actual":1,"trainingCount":6699,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2026","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.2749499999999999,"mean":1.46,"median":1,"bias":0.45999999999999996,"maeMean":0.45999999999999996,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.345,"pitUpper":0.675,"empiricalMass":0.33,"logScore":1.1086626245216111},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.2934,"mean":1.01,"median":1,"bias":0.010000000000000009,"maeMean":0.010000000000000009,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.465,"pitUpper":0.75,"empiricalMass":0.285,"logScore":1.2552660987134867},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.33567500000000006,"mean":1.505,"median":1,"bias":0.5049999999999999,"maeMean":0.5049999999999999,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.36,"pitUpper":0.61,"empiricalMass":0.25,"logScore":1.3862943611198906},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.3234,"mean":1.37,"median":1,"bias":0.3700000000000001,"maeMean":0.3700000000000001,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.32,"pitUpper":0.575,"empiricalMass":0.255,"logScore":1.3664917338237108},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.33429999999999993,"mean":1.62,"median":2,"bias":0.6200000000000001,"maeMean":0.6200000000000001,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.165,"pitUpper":0.485,"empiricalMass":0.32,"logScore":1.1394342831883648},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.5893250000000001,"mean":1.325,"median":0,"bias":0.32499999999999996,"maeMean":0.32499999999999996,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":6,"coverage":true,"width":6,"pitLower":0.675,"pitUpper":0.75,"empiricalMass":0.075,"logScore":2.5902671654458267}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.345,"1":0.33,"2":0.155,"3":0.06,"4":0.04,"5":0.025,"6":0.005,"7":0.015,"8":0.015,"9":0.005,"11":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.465,"1":0.285,"2":0.14,"3":0.075,"4":0.015,"6":0.005,"8":0.005,"9":0.01},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.36,"1":0.25,"2":0.2,"3":0.085,"4":0.045,"5":0.025,"7":0.01,"8":0.015,"9":0.005,"12":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.32,"1":0.255,"2":0.235,"3":0.125,"4":0.06,"6":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.165,"1":0.32,"2":0.32,"3":0.135,"4":0.045,"5":0.015},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.675,"1":0.075,"2":0.075,"3":0.05,"4":0.025,"5":0.025,"6":0.025,"7":0.01,"9":0.005,"10":0.005,"11":0.005,"12":0.005,"14":0.015,"17":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1776988800000,"validUntil":1777593600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":6699,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2026","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.013050000000000006,"mean":0.15,"median":0,"bias":0.15,"maeMean":0.15,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.89,"empiricalMass":0.89,"logScore":0.11653381625595151},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.01335,"mean":0.15,"median":0,"bias":0.15,"maeMean":0.15,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.89,"empiricalMass":0.89,"logScore":0.11653381625595151},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.020274999999999987,"mean":0.175,"median":0,"bias":0.175,"maeMean":0.175,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.86,"empiricalMass":0.86,"logScore":0.15082288973458366},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.048500000000000015,"mean":0.23,"median":0,"bias":0.23,"maeMean":0.23,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.78,"empiricalMass":0.78,"logScore":0.2484613592984996},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.011274999999999993,"mean":0.125,"median":0,"bias":0.125,"maeMean":0.125,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.895,"empiricalMass":0.895,"logScore":0.11093156070728166},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.006849999999999995,"mean":0.11,"median":0,"bias":0.11,"maeMean":0.11,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.92,"empiricalMass":0.92,"logScore":0.08338160893905101}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.89,"1":0.08,"2":0.025,"4":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.89,"1":0.075,"2":0.03,"3":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.86,"1":0.115,"2":0.02,"4":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.78,"1":0.21,"2":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.895,"1":0.09,"2":0.01,"3":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.92,"1":0.06,"2":0.015,"4":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1776988800000,"validUntil":1779580800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":2,"actual":24,"trainingCount":6699,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2026","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":16.56855,"mean":54.17,"median":47,"bias":30.17,"maeMean":30.17,"maeMedian":23,"low":23,"high":107,"coverage":true,"width":84,"pitLower":0.05,"pitUpper":0.055,"empiricalMass":0.005,"logScore":5.298317366548036},"rollingETAS":{"crps":6.158574999999999,"mean":37.225,"median":33.5,"bias":13.225000000000001,"maeMean":13.225000000000001,"maeMedian":9.5,"low":18,"high":67,"coverage":true,"width":49,"pitLower":0.17,"pitUpper":0.22,"empiricalMass":0.05,"logScore":2.995732273553991},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":19.46515,"mean":58.87,"median":51,"bias":34.87,"maeMean":34.87,"maeMedian":27,"low":27,"high":119,"coverage":false,"width":92,"pitLower":0.025,"pitUpper":0.035,"empiricalMass":0.01,"logScore":4.605170185988091},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":17.1321,"mean":44.61,"median":44,"bias":20.61,"maeMean":20.61,"maeMedian":20,"low":35,"high":55,"coverage":false,"width":20,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentPoisson":{"crps":18.5273,"mean":46.47,"median":46.5,"bias":22.47,"maeMean":22.47,"maeMedian":22.5,"low":34,"high":59,"coverage":false,"width":25,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":8.053525,"mean":40.505,"median":36,"bias":16.505000000000003,"maeMean":16.505000000000003,"maeMedian":12,"low":10,"high":83,"coverage":true,"width":73,"pitLower":0.205,"pitUpper":0.245,"empiricalMass":0.04,"logScore":3.2188758248682006}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"17":0.005,"18":0.005,"19":0.005,"22":0.025,"23":0.01,"24":0.005,"25":0.01,"26":0.015,"27":0.02,"28":0.015,"29":0.005,"30":0.02,"31":0.025,"32":0.02,"33":0.025,"34":0.02,"35":0.035,"36":0.02,"37":0.02,"38":0.03,"39":0.015,"40":0.005,"41":0.02,"42":0.03,"43":0.025,"44":0.02,"45":0.015,"46":0.025,"47":0.015,"49":0.01,"50":0.02,"51":0.015,"52":0.025,"53":0.015,"54":0.015,"55":0.02,"56":0.01,"57":0.02,"58":0.015,"59":0.015,"60":0.005,"61":0.01,"62":0.01,"63":0.01,"64":0.01,"65":0.01,"66":0.015,"67":0.01,"68":0.005,"69":0.015,"71":0.005,"73":0.02,"74":0.01,"75":0.01,"77":0.005,"78":0.01,"79":0.005,"80":0.005,"82":0.015,"83":0.005,"84":0.01,"85":0.005,"86":0.005,"87":0.005,"91":0.015,"92":0.01,"93":0.005,"96":0.005,"99":0.005,"100":0.005,"107":0.005,"108":0.005,"109":0.005,"112":0.005,"114":0.005,"117":0.005,"123":0.005,"130":0.005,"139":0.005,"179":0.005,"181":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"9":0.005,"14":0.005,"16":0.015,"17":0.015,"18":0.01,"19":0.01,"20":0.035,"21":0.025,"22":0.02,"23":0.03,"24":0.05,"25":0.04,"26":0.005,"27":0.035,"28":0.035,"29":0.02,"30":0.025,"31":0.045,"32":0.03,"33":0.045,"34":0.03,"35":0.025,"36":0.015,"37":0.045,"38":0.01,"39":0.02,"40":0.015,"41":0.035,"42":0.02,"43":0.02,"44":0.03,"45":0.03,"46":0.02,"47":0.01,"48":0.015,"49":0.005,"50":0.01,"51":0.01,"52":0.015,"54":0.02,"55":0.005,"56":0.005,"58":0.01,"61":0.005,"62":0.005,"63":0.005,"64":0.005,"66":0.005,"67":0.005,"70":0.005,"75":0.005,"77":0.01,"82":0.005,"87":0.005,"88":0.005,"98":0.005,"119":0.005,"132":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"18":0.005,"20":0.005,"21":0.01,"23":0.005,"24":0.01,"25":0.005,"27":0.02,"28":0.015,"29":0.015,"30":0.015,"31":0.025,"32":0.03,"33":0.005,"34":0.015,"35":0.015,"36":0.015,"37":0.015,"38":0.025,"39":0.025,"40":0.025,"41":0.02,"42":0.03,"43":0.015,"44":0.005,"45":0.025,"46":0.005,"47":0.01,"48":0.015,"49":0.03,"50":0.02,"51":0.03,"52":0.005,"53":0.005,"54":0.025,"55":0.025,"56":0.025,"57":0.015,"58":0.015,"59":0.03,"60":0.01,"61":0.005,"62":0.01,"63":0.005,"64":0.025,"65":0.015,"66":0.01,"67":0.02,"70":0.01,"71":0.015,"72":0.01,"73":0.01,"74":0.02,"76":0.01,"77":0.015,"79":0.005,"82":0.015,"83":0.005,"84":0.01,"86":0.005,"88":0.005,"91":0.005,"93":0.005,"94":0.005,"95":0.005,"98":0.005,"103":0.005,"104":0.005,"105":0.01,"111":0.005,"114":0.005,"116":0.005,"119":0.005,"124":0.005,"126":0.005,"135":0.005,"148":0.005,"149":0.005,"156":0.005,"162":0.005,"169":0.005,"203":0.005,"236":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"27":0.005,"31":0.005,"32":0.005,"33":0.01,"34":0.01,"35":0.015,"36":0.04,"37":0.035,"38":0.04,"39":0.05,"40":0.06,"41":0.04,"42":0.065,"43":0.075,"44":0.065,"45":0.065,"46":0.05,"47":0.045,"48":0.02,"49":0.075,"50":0.06,"51":0.025,"52":0.03,"53":0.02,"54":0.02,"55":0.025,"56":0.025,"58":0.005,"59":0.01,"60":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"30":0.01,"31":0.02,"33":0.01,"34":0.01,"35":0.015,"36":0.005,"37":0.025,"38":0.02,"39":0.025,"40":0.05,"41":0.04,"42":0.055,"43":0.05,"44":0.05,"45":0.05,"46":0.065,"47":0.085,"48":0.055,"49":0.055,"50":0.05,"51":0.03,"52":0.04,"53":0.04,"54":0.025,"55":0.025,"56":0.01,"57":0.005,"58":0.015,"59":0.025,"60":0.01,"61":0.01,"62":0.01,"67":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"2":0.005,"3":0.005,"5":0.005,"6":0.01,"8":0.005,"9":0.01,"10":0.01,"12":0.01,"13":0.02,"14":0.015,"15":0.015,"16":0.015,"17":0.01,"18":0.01,"20":0.02,"21":0.025,"22":0.01,"23":0.005,"24":0.04,"25":0.02,"26":0.015,"27":0.015,"28":0.03,"29":0.03,"30":0.01,"31":0.015,"32":0.02,"33":0.015,"34":0.04,"35":0.025,"36":0.045,"37":0.015,"38":0.025,"39":0.015,"40":0.02,"41":0.015,"42":0.03,"43":0.015,"44":0.005,"45":0.01,"46":0.02,"47":0.005,"48":0.005,"49":0.01,"50":0.005,"51":0.02,"52":0.01,"53":0.005,"55":0.025,"56":0.01,"57":0.005,"58":0.015,"59":0.01,"60":0.005,"61":0.015,"62":0.005,"63":0.015,"64":0.01,"65":0.005,"67":0.005,"68":0.01,"70":0.005,"71":0.01,"72":0.01,"73":0.005,"74":0.015,"76":0.005,"77":0.005,"83":0.005,"86":0.005,"87":0.005,"89":0.005,"101":0.005,"105":0.01,"108":0.005,"109":0.005,"114":0.005,"135":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1776988800000,"validUntil":1779580800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":3,"actual":2,"trainingCount":6699,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2026","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":2.1138,"mean":6.26,"median":5,"bias":4.26,"maeMean":4.26,"maeMedian":3,"low":1,"high":15,"coverage":true,"width":14,"pitLower":0.085,"pitUpper":0.2,"empiricalMass":0.115,"logScore":2.162823150618887},"rollingETAS":{"crps":1.801675,"mean":5.595,"median":5,"bias":3.5949999999999998,"maeMean":3.5949999999999998,"maeMedian":3,"low":1,"high":12,"coverage":true,"width":11,"pitLower":0.09,"pitUpper":0.23,"empiricalMass":0.14,"logScore":1.9661128563728327},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":2.7346500000000002,"mean":7.23,"median":6,"bias":5.23,"maeMean":5.23,"maeMedian":4,"low":1,"high":18,"coverage":true,"width":17,"pitLower":0.05,"pitUpper":0.115,"empiricalMass":0.065,"logScore":2.7333680090865},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":3.341375,"mean":6.655,"median":7,"bias":4.655,"maeMean":4.655,"maeMedian":5,"low":3,"high":10,"coverage":false,"width":7,"pitLower":0.005,"pitUpper":0.03,"empiricalMass":0.025,"logScore":3.6888794541139363},"recentPoisson":{"crps":3.4065250000000002,"mean":6.775,"median":7,"bias":4.775,"maeMean":4.775,"maeMedian":5,"low":2,"high":11,"coverage":true,"width":9,"pitLower":0.01,"pitUpper":0.06,"empiricalMass":0.05,"logScore":2.995732273553991},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":1.3532499999999998,"mean":4.64,"median":4,"bias":2.6399999999999997,"maeMean":2.6399999999999997,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":10,"coverage":true,"width":10,"pitLower":0.15,"pitUpper":0.27,"empiricalMass":0.12,"logScore":2.120263536200091}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.015,"1":0.07,"2":0.115,"3":0.085,"4":0.135,"5":0.105,"6":0.08,"7":0.09,"8":0.075,"9":0.045,"10":0.04,"11":0.02,"12":0.03,"13":0.025,"14":0.015,"15":0.02,"16":0.005,"17":0.01,"18":0.005,"19":0.005,"22":0.005,"33":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.02,"1":0.07,"2":0.14,"3":0.13,"4":0.065,"5":0.13,"6":0.085,"7":0.11,"8":0.065,"9":0.05,"10":0.05,"11":0.02,"12":0.015,"13":0.01,"14":0.005,"15":0.025,"22":0.01},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.02,"1":0.03,"2":0.065,"3":0.095,"4":0.105,"5":0.13,"6":0.105,"7":0.095,"8":0.08,"9":0.055,"10":0.075,"11":0.025,"12":0.005,"13":0.005,"14":0.005,"15":0.025,"16":0.01,"17":0.015,"18":0.01,"19":0.005,"20":0.005,"21":0.005,"23":0.005,"25":0.01,"26":0.005,"30":0.01},"expandingPoisson":{"1":0.005,"2":0.025,"3":0.07,"4":0.075,"5":0.165,"6":0.125,"7":0.185,"8":0.13,"9":0.1,"10":0.075,"11":0.02,"12":0.02,"14":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"1":0.01,"2":0.05,"3":0.045,"4":0.085,"5":0.1,"6":0.14,"7":0.185,"8":0.13,"9":0.115,"10":0.08,"11":0.045,"12":0.01,"13":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.065,"1":0.085,"2":0.12,"3":0.145,"4":0.115,"5":0.14,"6":0.065,"7":0.08,"8":0.08,"9":0.05,"10":0.015,"11":0.015,"12":0.005,"13":0.005,"14":0.005,"16":0.005,"18":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1776988800000,"validUntil":1779580800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":6699,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2026","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.24772500000000008,"mean":0.785,"median":0,"bias":0.785,"maeMean":0.785,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.56,"empiricalMass":0.56,"logScore":0.579818495252942},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.29725,"mean":0.83,"median":0,"bias":0.83,"maeMean":0.83,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.505,"empiricalMass":0.505,"logScore":0.6831968497067772},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.31342500000000006,"mean":0.935,"median":0,"bias":0.935,"maeMean":0.935,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.51,"empiricalMass":0.51,"logScore":0.6733445532637656},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.34065,"mean":0.79,"median":1,"bias":0.79,"maeMean":0.79,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.45,"empiricalMass":0.45,"logScore":0.7985076962177716},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.2294,"mean":0.62,"median":0,"bias":0.62,"maeMean":0.62,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.54,"empiricalMass":0.54,"logScore":0.616186139423817},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.09887499999999999,"mean":0.415,"median":0,"bias":0.415,"maeMean":0.415,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.695,"empiricalMass":0.695,"logScore":0.363843433417345}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.56,"1":0.23,"2":0.115,"3":0.065,"4":0.02,"5":0.01},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.505,"1":0.28,"2":0.145,"3":0.04,"4":0.02,"6":0.01},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.51,"1":0.25,"2":0.125,"3":0.075,"4":0.015,"5":0.01,"6":0.01,"8":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.45,"1":0.36,"2":0.145,"3":0.04,"4":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.54,"1":0.33,"2":0.1,"3":0.03},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.695,"1":0.235,"2":0.04,"3":0.025,"5":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1779580800000,"validUntil":1779667200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":2,"actual":0,"trainingCount":6723,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2026","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.50085,"mean":1.32,"median":1,"bias":1.32,"maeMean":1.32,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.415,"empiricalMass":0.415,"logScore":0.8794767587514388},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.3701000000000001,"mean":1.11,"median":1,"bias":1.11,"maeMean":1.11,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.465,"empiricalMass":0.465,"logScore":0.7657178733947807},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.4658,"mean":1.3,"median":1,"bias":1.3,"maeMean":1.3,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.405,"empiricalMass":0.405,"logScore":0.9038682118755978},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.86065,"mean":1.5,"median":1,"bias":1.5,"maeMean":1.5,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.205,"empiricalMass":0.205,"logScore":1.584745299843729},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.492675,"mean":1.075,"median":1,"bias":1.075,"maeMean":1.075,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.375,"empiricalMass":0.375,"logScore":0.9808292530117262},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.343225,"mean":0.945,"median":1,"bias":0.945,"maeMean":0.945,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.485,"empiricalMass":0.485,"logScore":0.7236063880446539}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.415,"1":0.26,"2":0.13,"3":0.1,"4":0.03,"5":0.025,"6":0.03,"7":0.005,"8":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.465,"1":0.285,"2":0.125,"3":0.065,"4":0.035,"5":0.005,"7":0.01,"14":0.005,"15":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.405,"1":0.32,"2":0.12,"3":0.065,"4":0.045,"5":0.025,"9":0.01,"11":0.005,"19":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.205,"1":0.365,"2":0.23,"3":0.14,"4":0.05,"5":0.005,"6":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.375,"1":0.325,"2":0.195,"3":0.08,"4":0.005,"5":0.02},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.485,"1":0.265,"2":0.135,"3":0.07,"4":0.03,"5":0.01,"6":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1779580800000,"validUntil":1779667200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":3,"actual":0,"trainingCount":6723,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2026","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.0121,"mean":0.11,"median":0,"bias":0.11,"maeMean":0.11,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.89,"empiricalMass":0.89,"logScore":0.11653381625595151},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.014850000000000002,"mean":0.16,"median":0,"bias":0.16,"maeMean":0.16,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.885,"empiricalMass":0.885,"logScore":0.12216763397420753},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.01872500000000002,"mean":0.165,"median":0,"bias":0.165,"maeMean":0.165,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.865,"empiricalMass":0.865,"logScore":0.14502577205025774},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.034324999999999994,"mean":0.195,"median":0,"bias":0.195,"maeMean":0.195,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.815,"empiricalMass":0.815,"logScore":0.2045671657412744},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.005624999999999991,"mean":0.075,"median":0,"bias":0.075,"maeMean":0.075,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.925,"empiricalMass":0.925,"logScore":0.0779615414697118},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.016999999999999987,"mean":0.18,"median":0,"bias":0.18,"maeMean":0.18,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.88,"empiricalMass":0.88,"logScore":0.12783337150988489}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.89,"1":0.11},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.885,"1":0.075,"2":0.035,"3":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.865,"1":0.115,"2":0.01,"3":0.01},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.815,"1":0.175,"2":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.925,"1":0.075},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.88,"1":0.07,"2":0.04,"3":0.01}}},{"issuedAt":1779580800000,"validUntil":1779667200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":6723,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2026","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.0000999999999999994,"mean":0.01,"median":0,"bias":0.01,"maeMean":0.01,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.99,"empiricalMass":0.99,"logScore":0.01005033585350145},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.000899999999999998,"mean":0.03,"median":0,"bias":0.03,"maeMean":0.03,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.97,"empiricalMass":0.97,"logScore":0.030459207484708574},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.00040000000000000105,"mean":0.02,"median":0,"bias":0.02,"maeMean":0.02,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.98,"empiricalMass":0.98,"logScore":0.020202707317519466},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.0012250000000000039,"mean":0.035,"median":0,"bias":0.035,"maeMean":0.035,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.965,"empiricalMass":0.965,"logScore":0.03562717764315116},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.0006250000000000006,"mean":0.025,"median":0,"bias":0.025,"maeMean":0.025,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.975,"empiricalMass":0.975,"logScore":0.025317807984289897},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.00002499999999999985,"mean":0.005,"median":0,"bias":0.005,"maeMean":0.005,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.995,"empiricalMass":0.995,"logScore":0.005012541823544286}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.99,"1":0.01},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.97,"1":0.03},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.98,"1":0.02},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.965,"1":0.035},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.975,"1":0.025},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.995,"1":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1779580800000,"validUntil":1780185600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":2,"actual":4,"trainingCount":6723,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2026","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":3.267,"mean":10.71,"median":9,"bias":6.710000000000001,"maeMean":6.710000000000001,"maeMedian":5,"low":2,"high":23,"coverage":true,"width":21,"pitLower":0.13,"pitUpper":0.17,"empiricalMass":0.04,"logScore":3.2188758248682006},"rollingETAS":{"crps":1.640075,"mean":7.885,"median":6,"bias":3.885,"maeMean":3.885,"maeMedian":2,"low":2,"high":19,"coverage":true,"width":17,"pitLower":0.2,"pitUpper":0.29,"empiricalMass":0.09,"logScore":2.4079456086518722},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":2.9226,"mean":10.55,"median":9,"bias":6.550000000000001,"maeMean":6.550000000000001,"maeMedian":5,"low":2,"high":26,"coverage":true,"width":24,"pitLower":0.115,"pitUpper":0.185,"empiricalMass":0.07,"logScore":2.659260036932778},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":4.394225,"mean":10.395,"median":10,"bias":6.395,"maeMean":6.395,"maeMedian":6,"low":5,"high":17,"coverage":false,"width":12,"pitLower":0.02,"pitUpper":0.04,"empiricalMass":0.02,"logScore":3.912023005428146},"recentPoisson":{"crps":2.2656,"mean":7.68,"median":8,"bias":3.6799999999999997,"maeMean":3.6799999999999997,"maeMedian":4,"low":3,"high":12,"coverage":true,"width":9,"pitLower":0.07,"pitUpper":0.145,"empiricalMass":0.075,"logScore":2.5902671654458267},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":1.8848999999999996,"mean":7.82,"median":7,"bias":3.8200000000000003,"maeMean":3.8200000000000003,"maeMedian":3,"low":2,"high":16,"coverage":true,"width":14,"pitLower":0.2,"pitUpper":0.295,"empiricalMass":0.095,"logScore":2.353878387381596}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.005,"1":0.025,"2":0.055,"3":0.045,"4":0.04,"5":0.08,"6":0.07,"7":0.055,"8":0.065,"9":0.09,"10":0.065,"11":0.065,"12":0.04,"13":0.03,"14":0.05,"15":0.06,"16":0.02,"17":0.01,"18":0.03,"19":0.01,"20":0.01,"21":0.01,"22":0.015,"23":0.005,"24":0.01,"27":0.01,"28":0.005,"32":0.005,"45":0.005,"51":0.005,"54":0.005,"55":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.005,"1":0.035,"2":0.065,"3":0.095,"4":0.09,"5":0.095,"6":0.135,"7":0.105,"8":0.04,"9":0.055,"10":0.07,"11":0.04,"12":0.04,"13":0.03,"14":0.01,"15":0.01,"16":0.005,"17":0.01,"19":0.015,"20":0.005,"22":0.01,"24":0.005,"27":0.005,"31":0.005,"32":0.005,"33":0.005,"34":0.005,"36":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.005,"1":0.01,"2":0.04,"3":0.06,"4":0.07,"5":0.07,"6":0.105,"7":0.06,"8":0.075,"9":0.08,"10":0.07,"11":0.06,"12":0.04,"13":0.04,"14":0.025,"15":0.005,"16":0.03,"17":0.015,"18":0.025,"19":0.015,"20":0.015,"21":0.005,"23":0.01,"24":0.005,"25":0.01,"26":0.015,"29":0.005,"30":0.005,"31":0.005,"34":0.005,"36":0.01,"46":0.005,"84":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"3":0.02,"4":0.02,"5":0.04,"6":0.04,"7":0.09,"8":0.11,"9":0.12,"10":0.125,"11":0.08,"12":0.1,"13":0.055,"14":0.07,"15":0.045,"16":0.025,"17":0.01,"18":0.025,"19":0.015,"20":0.005,"24":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"1":0.015,"2":0.01,"3":0.045,"4":0.075,"5":0.11,"6":0.075,"7":0.165,"8":0.105,"9":0.12,"10":0.135,"11":0.065,"12":0.035,"13":0.005,"14":0.02,"15":0.015,"16":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.02,"1":0.02,"2":0.07,"3":0.09,"4":0.095,"5":0.055,"6":0.115,"7":0.095,"8":0.06,"9":0.065,"10":0.04,"11":0.065,"12":0.045,"13":0.03,"14":0.025,"15":0.04,"16":0.025,"17":0.005,"18":0.01,"19":0.015,"23":0.005,"25":0.005,"26":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1779580800000,"validUntil":1780185600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":3,"actual":1,"trainingCount":6723,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2026","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.24492499999999995,"mean":1.185,"median":1,"bias":0.18500000000000005,"maeMean":0.18500000000000005,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.39,"pitUpper":0.745,"empiricalMass":0.355,"logScore":1.0356374895067213},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.27232499999999993,"mean":1.275,"median":1,"bias":0.2749999999999999,"maeMean":0.2749999999999999,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.38,"pitUpper":0.7,"empiricalMass":0.32,"logScore":1.1394342831883648},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.2754749999999999,"mean":1.215,"median":1,"bias":0.21500000000000008,"maeMean":0.21500000000000008,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.41,"pitUpper":0.72,"empiricalMass":0.31,"logScore":1.171182981502945},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.27670000000000006,"mean":1.43,"median":1,"bias":0.42999999999999994,"maeMean":0.42999999999999994,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.235,"pitUpper":0.565,"empiricalMass":0.33,"logScore":1.1086626245216111},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.25284999999999996,"mean":0.75,"median":1,"bias":-0.25,"maeMean":0.25,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.47,"pitUpper":0.825,"empiricalMass":0.355,"logScore":1.0356374895067213},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.3343250000000001,"mean":0.895,"median":0,"bias":-0.10499999999999998,"maeMean":0.10499999999999998,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.52,"pitUpper":0.775,"empiricalMass":0.255,"logScore":1.3664917338237108}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.39,"1":0.355,"2":0.12,"3":0.055,"4":0.035,"5":0.02,"6":0.005,"7":0.01,"8":0.005,"9":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.38,"1":0.32,"2":0.13,"3":0.095,"4":0.03,"5":0.015,"6":0.01,"7":0.015,"10":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.41,"1":0.31,"2":0.135,"3":0.07,"4":0.04,"5":0.01,"6":0.015,"9":0.005,"16":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.235,"1":0.33,"2":0.26,"3":0.14,"4":0.015,"5":0.02},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.47,"1":0.355,"2":0.14,"3":0.025,"4":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.52,"1":0.255,"2":0.13,"3":0.04,"4":0.02,"5":0.03,"6":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1779580800000,"validUntil":1780185600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":6723,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2026","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.010624999999999996,"mean":0.125,"median":0,"bias":0.125,"maeMean":0.125,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.9,"empiricalMass":0.9,"logScore":0.10536051565782628},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.016875,"mean":0.165,"median":0,"bias":0.165,"maeMean":0.165,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.875,"empiricalMass":0.875,"logScore":0.13353139262452263},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.01604999999999998,"mean":0.15,"median":0,"bias":0.15,"maeMean":0.15,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.875,"empiricalMass":0.875,"logScore":0.13353139262452263},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.022625000000000006,"mean":0.165,"median":0,"bias":0.165,"maeMean":0.165,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.85,"empiricalMass":0.85,"logScore":0.16251892949777494},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.006400000000000003,"mean":0.08,"median":0,"bias":0.08,"maeMean":0.08,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.92,"empiricalMass":0.92,"logScore":0.08338160893905101},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.00462499999999999,"mean":0.105,"median":0,"bias":0.105,"maeMean":0.105,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.94,"empiricalMass":0.94,"logScore":0.06187540371808753}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.9,"1":0.075,"2":0.025},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.875,"1":0.09,"2":0.03,"3":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.875,"1":0.105,"2":0.015,"3":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.85,"1":0.14,"2":0.005,"3":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.92,"1":0.08},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.94,"1":0.03,"2":0.02,"3":0.005,"4":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1779580800000,"validUntil":1782172800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":2,"actual":24,"trainingCount":6723,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2026","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":18.646949999999997,"mean":57.73,"median":48,"bias":33.73,"maeMean":33.73,"maeMedian":24,"low":25,"high":129,"coverage":false,"width":104,"pitLower":0.025,"pitUpper":0.04,"empiricalMass":0.015,"logScore":4.199705077879927},"rollingETAS":{"crps":5.6257,"mean":36.92,"median":32,"bias":12.920000000000002,"maeMean":12.920000000000002,"maeMedian":8,"low":18,"high":77,"coverage":true,"width":59,"pitLower":0.16,"pitUpper":0.19,"empiricalMass":0.03,"logScore":3.506557897319982},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":19.686874999999997,"mean":58.285,"median":51,"bias":34.285,"maeMean":34.285,"maeMedian":27,"low":26,"high":114,"coverage":false,"width":88,"pitLower":0.03,"pitUpper":0.035,"empiricalMass":0.005,"logScore":5.298317366548036},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":16.638925,"mean":44.405,"median":44,"bias":20.405,"maeMean":20.405,"maeMedian":20,"low":33,"high":55,"coverage":false,"width":22,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentPoisson":{"crps":6.093074999999999,"mean":33.055,"median":33,"bias":9.055,"maeMean":9.055,"maeMedian":9,"low":24,"high":44,"coverage":true,"width":20,"pitLower":0.03,"pitUpper":0.06,"empiricalMass":0.03,"logScore":3.506557897319982},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":4.208525,"mean":32.635,"median":30.5,"bias":8.634999999999998,"maeMean":8.634999999999998,"maeMedian":6.5,"low":16,"high":59,"coverage":true,"width":43,"pitLower":0.23,"pitUpper":0.275,"empiricalMass":0.045,"logScore":3.101092789211817}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"19":0.005,"21":0.01,"22":0.005,"23":0.005,"24":0.015,"25":0.015,"26":0.01,"27":0.01,"28":0.01,"29":0.02,"30":0.01,"31":0.025,"32":0.01,"33":0.015,"34":0.01,"35":0.01,"36":0.01,"37":0.01,"38":0.02,"39":0.045,"40":0.02,"41":0.03,"42":0.035,"43":0.02,"44":0.035,"45":0.03,"46":0.005,"47":0.025,"48":0.035,"49":0.015,"50":0.015,"51":0.025,"52":0.025,"53":0.005,"54":0.015,"55":0.005,"56":0.005,"57":0.02,"58":0.005,"59":0.015,"60":0.01,"61":0.025,"62":0.02,"63":0.025,"64":0.01,"65":0.01,"66":0.005,"67":0.01,"69":0.005,"72":0.005,"73":0.005,"74":0.015,"75":0.005,"76":0.005,"77":0.01,"79":0.015,"80":0.005,"84":0.005,"85":0.005,"88":0.015,"92":0.005,"95":0.005,"98":0.005,"100":0.005,"101":0.015,"102":0.01,"104":0.005,"109":0.005,"111":0.01,"114":0.005,"118":0.005,"127":0.005,"129":0.005,"132":0.005,"134":0.005,"135":0.005,"136":0.005,"137":0.005,"139":0.005,"140":0.005,"143":0.005,"148":0.005,"186":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"13":0.01,"14":0.005,"16":0.01,"17":0.01,"18":0.025,"19":0.015,"20":0.025,"21":0.02,"22":0.015,"23":0.025,"24":0.03,"25":0.055,"26":0.04,"27":0.045,"28":0.035,"29":0.035,"30":0.035,"31":0.03,"32":0.045,"33":0.01,"34":0.045,"35":0.05,"36":0.02,"37":0.01,"38":0.015,"39":0.025,"40":0.025,"41":0.045,"42":0.005,"43":0.01,"44":0.01,"45":0.01,"46":0.015,"47":0.015,"48":0.005,"49":0.005,"50":0.015,"51":0.03,"52":0.01,"54":0.01,"58":0.01,"59":0.005,"61":0.01,"66":0.005,"67":0.005,"68":0.01,"69":0.005,"77":0.005,"78":0.01,"80":0.005,"87":0.005,"99":0.01,"100":0.005,"101":0.005,"104":0.005,"107":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"15":0.005,"16":0.005,"17":0.005,"22":0.005,"23":0.01,"24":0.005,"26":0.02,"27":0.02,"28":0.02,"29":0.005,"30":0.01,"31":0.025,"32":0.015,"34":0.015,"35":0.03,"36":0.015,"37":0.01,"38":0.03,"39":0.015,"40":0.015,"41":0.01,"42":0.05,"43":0.04,"44":0.03,"45":0.005,"46":0.01,"47":0.015,"48":0.02,"49":0.015,"50":0.01,"51":0.02,"52":0.01,"53":0.015,"54":0.015,"55":0.015,"56":0.005,"58":0.02,"59":0.01,"60":0.01,"61":0.03,"62":0.035,"64":0.015,"65":0.01,"66":0.005,"67":0.005,"68":0.015,"69":0.01,"70":0.01,"71":0.005,"72":0.025,"74":0.02,"75":0.005,"77":0.01,"78":0.005,"79":0.015,"81":0.01,"83":0.005,"85":0.005,"86":0.005,"87":0.005,"90":0.005,"91":0.005,"92":0.005,"93":0.01,"94":0.01,"95":0.01,"96":0.005,"98":0.005,"99":0.015,"101":0.005,"102":0.005,"106":0.005,"110":0.005,"114":0.005,"115":0.005,"120":0.01,"123":0.005,"132":0.005,"134":0.005,"135":0.005,"137":0.005,"178":0.005,"181":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"29":0.01,"31":0.025,"33":0.015,"34":0.015,"35":0.025,"36":0.02,"37":0.045,"38":0.03,"39":0.035,"40":0.075,"41":0.06,"42":0.045,"43":0.05,"44":0.06,"45":0.055,"46":0.085,"47":0.035,"48":0.045,"49":0.035,"50":0.055,"51":0.04,"52":0.035,"53":0.035,"54":0.005,"55":0.015,"56":0.02,"57":0.005,"59":0.005,"60":0.005,"62":0.005,"65":0.005,"66":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"17":0.01,"19":0.005,"20":0.005,"22":0.01,"24":0.03,"25":0.03,"26":0.05,"27":0.025,"28":0.025,"29":0.08,"30":0.05,"31":0.08,"32":0.08,"33":0.045,"34":0.085,"35":0.065,"36":0.065,"37":0.06,"38":0.03,"39":0.055,"40":0.015,"41":0.02,"42":0.01,"43":0.01,"44":0.02,"45":0.03,"46":0.005,"48":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"11":0.01,"12":0.01,"14":0.01,"15":0.01,"16":0.01,"17":0.025,"18":0.01,"19":0.035,"20":0.02,"21":0.01,"22":0.05,"23":0.03,"24":0.045,"25":0.03,"26":0.025,"27":0.075,"28":0.03,"29":0.03,"30":0.035,"31":0.045,"32":0.035,"33":0.03,"34":0.025,"35":0.035,"36":0.025,"37":0.015,"38":0.025,"39":0.035,"40":0.02,"41":0.02,"43":0.025,"44":0.015,"45":0.01,"46":0.005,"47":0.015,"48":0.005,"49":0.015,"51":0.01,"52":0.01,"53":0.01,"54":0.01,"56":0.005,"59":0.005,"60":0.015,"61":0.005,"64":0.01,"65":0.005,"70":0.005,"71":0.005,"81":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1779580800000,"validUntil":1782172800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":3,"actual":3,"trainingCount":6723,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2026","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":1.9465750000000002,"mean":7.215,"median":6,"bias":4.215,"maeMean":4.215,"maeMedian":3,"low":1,"high":19,"coverage":true,"width":18,"pitLower":0.16,"pitUpper":0.215,"empiricalMass":0.055,"logScore":2.900422093749666},"rollingETAS":{"crps":1.1462250000000003,"mean":5.525,"median":5,"bias":2.5250000000000004,"maeMean":2.5250000000000004,"maeMedian":2,"low":1,"high":12,"coverage":true,"width":11,"pitLower":0.235,"pitUpper":0.355,"empiricalMass":0.12,"logScore":2.120263536200091},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":2.1130750000000003,"mean":7.375,"median":6,"bias":4.375,"maeMean":4.375,"maeMedian":3,"low":1,"high":17,"coverage":true,"width":16,"pitLower":0.1,"pitUpper":0.185,"empiricalMass":0.085,"logScore":2.4651040224918206},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":1.8799000000000001,"mean":6.07,"median":6,"bias":3.0700000000000003,"maeMean":3.0700000000000003,"maeMedian":3,"low":3,"high":10,"coverage":true,"width":7,"pitLower":0.04,"pitUpper":0.12,"empiricalMass":0.08,"logScore":2.5257286443082556},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.5950250000000001,"mean":3.855,"median":4,"bias":0.855,"maeMean":0.855,"maeMedian":1,"low":1,"high":7,"coverage":true,"width":6,"pitLower":0.27,"pitUpper":0.44,"empiricalMass":0.17,"logScore":1.7719568419318752},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.6635500000000001,"mean":4.18,"median":4,"bias":1.1799999999999997,"maeMean":1.1799999999999997,"maeMedian":1,"low":1,"high":9,"coverage":true,"width":8,"pitLower":0.295,"pitUpper":0.465,"empiricalMass":0.17,"logScore":1.7719568419318752}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.01,"1":0.065,"2":0.085,"3":0.055,"4":0.125,"5":0.115,"6":0.125,"7":0.075,"8":0.06,"9":0.065,"10":0.035,"11":0.015,"12":0.025,"13":0.01,"14":0.035,"15":0.015,"17":0.005,"18":0.02,"19":0.015,"20":0.015,"21":0.005,"23":0.01,"24":0.005,"25":0.005,"26":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.01,"1":0.085,"2":0.14,"3":0.12,"4":0.095,"5":0.155,"6":0.1,"7":0.06,"8":0.065,"9":0.055,"10":0.025,"11":0.015,"12":0.03,"13":0.005,"16":0.005,"17":0.015,"18":0.005,"19":0.005,"24":0.005,"26":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.015,"1":0.035,"2":0.05,"3":0.085,"4":0.11,"5":0.14,"6":0.11,"7":0.075,"8":0.075,"9":0.07,"10":0.04,"11":0.03,"12":0.03,"13":0.025,"14":0.025,"15":0.015,"16":0.005,"17":0.015,"18":0.005,"19":0.01,"21":0.015,"23":0.005,"24":0.005,"26":0.005,"29":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"1":0.005,"2":0.035,"3":0.08,"4":0.12,"5":0.22,"6":0.165,"7":0.145,"8":0.055,"9":0.085,"10":0.045,"11":0.025,"12":0.02},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.045,"1":0.075,"2":0.15,"3":0.17,"4":0.195,"5":0.145,"6":0.125,"7":0.06,"8":0.02,"9":0.015},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.04,"1":0.105,"2":0.15,"3":0.17,"4":0.16,"5":0.11,"6":0.08,"7":0.07,"8":0.035,"9":0.04,"10":0.01,"11":0.01,"12":0.015,"15":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1779580800000,"validUntil":1782172800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":6723,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2026","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.2519,"mean":0.79,"median":0,"bias":0.79,"maeMean":0.79,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.55,"empiricalMass":0.55,"logScore":0.5978370007556204},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.26702499999999996,"mean":0.845,"median":0,"bias":0.845,"maeMean":0.845,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.535,"empiricalMass":0.535,"logScore":0.6254885320861304},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.371325,"mean":0.965,"median":1,"bias":0.965,"maeMean":0.965,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.46,"empiricalMass":0.46,"logScore":0.7765287894989963},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.33572500000000005,"mean":0.795,"median":1,"bias":0.795,"maeMean":0.795,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.455,"empiricalMass":0.455,"logScore":0.7874578600311866},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.09392500000000001,"mean":0.335,"median":0,"bias":0.335,"maeMean":0.335,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.695,"empiricalMass":0.695,"logScore":0.363843433417345},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.03325000000000003,"mean":0.27,"median":0,"bias":0.27,"maeMean":0.27,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.83,"empiricalMass":0.83,"logScore":0.18632957819149348}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.55,"1":0.245,"2":0.14,"3":0.01,"4":0.045,"5":0.005,"6":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.535,"1":0.275,"2":0.085,"3":0.05,"4":0.03,"5":0.02,"6":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.46,"1":0.28,"2":0.155,"3":0.075,"4":0.02,"5":0.005,"9":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.455,"1":0.355,"2":0.14,"3":0.04,"4":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.695,"1":0.275,"2":0.03},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.83,"1":0.11,"2":0.035,"3":0.015,"4":0.005,"5":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1782172800000,"validUntil":1782259200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":2,"actual":0,"trainingCount":6747,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2026","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.5486500000000001,"mean":1.55,"median":1,"bias":1.55,"maeMean":1.55,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":6,"coverage":true,"width":6,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.38,"empiricalMass":0.38,"logScore":0.9675840262617056},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.407925,"mean":1.045,"median":1,"bias":1.045,"maeMean":1.045,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.425,"empiricalMass":0.425,"logScore":0.8556661100577202},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.673075,"mean":1.635,"median":1,"bias":1.635,"maeMean":1.635,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.355,"empiricalMass":0.355,"logScore":1.0356374895067213},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.78465,"mean":1.49,"median":1,"bias":1.49,"maeMean":1.49,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.28,"empiricalMass":0.28,"logScore":1.2729656758128873},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.4861749999999999,"mean":1.005,"median":1,"bias":1.005,"maeMean":1.005,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.365,"empiricalMass":0.365,"logScore":1.0078579253996456},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.40312500000000007,"mean":1.235,"median":1,"bias":1.235,"maeMean":1.235,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.495,"empiricalMass":0.495,"logScore":0.7031975164134467}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.38,"1":0.29,"2":0.145,"3":0.075,"4":0.055,"6":0.025,"7":0.01,"9":0.005,"10":0.005,"20":0.005,"22":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.425,"1":0.33,"2":0.125,"3":0.08,"4":0.01,"5":0.015,"6":0.005,"7":0.005,"9":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.355,"1":0.23,"2":0.175,"3":0.11,"4":0.05,"5":0.03,"6":0.02,"7":0.01,"8":0.015,"13":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.28,"1":0.26,"2":0.235,"3":0.165,"4":0.04,"5":0.015,"6":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.365,"1":0.36,"2":0.19,"3":0.075,"4":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.495,"1":0.195,"2":0.125,"3":0.07,"4":0.06,"5":0.02,"6":0.02,"7":0.01,"10":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1782172800000,"validUntil":1782259200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":3,"actual":0,"trainingCount":6747,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2026","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.023825000000000013,"mean":0.195,"median":0,"bias":0.195,"maeMean":0.195,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.85,"empiricalMass":0.85,"logScore":0.16251892949777494},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.010225000000000012,"mean":0.115,"median":0,"bias":0.115,"maeMean":0.115,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.9,"empiricalMass":0.9,"logScore":0.10536051565782628},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.02562500000000001,"mean":0.165,"median":0,"bias":0.165,"maeMean":0.165,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.84,"empiricalMass":0.84,"logScore":0.1743533871447778},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.0325,"mean":0.19,"median":0,"bias":0.19,"maeMean":0.19,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.82,"empiricalMass":0.82,"logScore":0.19845093872383832},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.02124999999999999,"mean":0.16,"median":0,"bias":0.16,"maeMean":0.16,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.855,"empiricalMass":0.855,"logScore":0.15665381004537685},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.00702499999999999,"mean":0.105,"median":0,"bias":0.105,"maeMean":0.105,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.92,"empiricalMass":0.92,"logScore":0.08338160893905101}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.85,"1":0.115,"2":0.025,"3":0.01},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.9,"1":0.085,"2":0.015},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.84,"1":0.155,"2":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.82,"1":0.17,"2":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.855,"1":0.13,"2":0.015},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.92,"1":0.055,"2":0.025}}},{"issuedAt":1782172800000,"validUntil":1782259200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":6747,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2026","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.000899999999999998,"mean":0.03,"median":0,"bias":0.03,"maeMean":0.03,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.97,"empiricalMass":0.97,"logScore":0.030459207484708574},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0,"mean":0,"median":0,"bias":0,"maeMean":0,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":1,"empiricalMass":1,"logScore":0},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.0000999999999999994,"mean":0.01,"median":0,"bias":0.01,"maeMean":0.01,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.99,"empiricalMass":0.99,"logScore":0.01005033585350145},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.000899999999999998,"mean":0.03,"median":0,"bias":0.03,"maeMean":0.03,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.97,"empiricalMass":0.97,"logScore":0.030459207484708574},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.0000999999999999994,"mean":0.01,"median":0,"bias":0.01,"maeMean":0.01,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.99,"empiricalMass":0.99,"logScore":0.01005033585350145},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.0000999999999999994,"mean":0.01,"median":0,"bias":0.01,"maeMean":0.01,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.99,"empiricalMass":0.99,"logScore":0.01005033585350145}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.97,"1":0.03},"rollingETAS":{"0":1},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.99,"1":0.01},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.97,"1":0.03},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.99,"1":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.99,"1":0.01}}},{"issuedAt":1782172800000,"validUntil":1782777600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":2,"actual":4,"trainingCount":6747,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2026","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":3.8557250000000005,"mean":12.705,"median":10,"bias":8.705,"maeMean":8.705,"maeMedian":6,"low":3,"high":31,"coverage":true,"width":28,"pitLower":0.105,"pitUpper":0.14,"empiricalMass":0.035,"logScore":3.3524072174927233},"rollingETAS":{"crps":1.2639999999999998,"mean":7.06,"median":6,"bias":3.0599999999999996,"maeMean":3.0599999999999996,"maeMedian":2,"low":1,"high":16,"coverage":true,"width":15,"pitLower":0.195,"pitUpper":0.355,"empiricalMass":0.16,"logScore":1.8325814637483102},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":4.0616,"mean":12.6,"median":10,"bias":8.6,"maeMean":8.6,"maeMedian":6,"low":2,"high":31,"coverage":true,"width":29,"pitLower":0.085,"pitUpper":0.135,"empiricalMass":0.05,"logScore":2.995732273553991},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":4.409625,"mean":9.955,"median":10,"bias":5.955,"maeMean":5.955,"maeMedian":6,"low":6,"high":14,"coverage":false,"width":8,"pitLower":0.015,"pitUpper":0.025,"empiricalMass":0.01,"logScore":4.605170185988091},"recentPoisson":{"crps":2.148025,"mean":7.475,"median":7,"bias":3.4749999999999996,"maeMean":3.4749999999999996,"maeMedian":3,"low":4,"high":12,"coverage":true,"width":8,"pitLower":0.045,"pitUpper":0.13,"empiricalMass":0.085,"logScore":2.4651040224918206},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":1.5812749999999998,"mean":7.095,"median":6,"bias":3.0949999999999998,"maeMean":3.0949999999999998,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":16,"coverage":true,"width":16,"pitLower":0.285,"pitUpper":0.36,"empiricalMass":0.075,"logScore":2.5902671654458267}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.005,"1":0.005,"2":0.03,"3":0.065,"4":0.035,"5":0.05,"6":0.1,"7":0.07,"8":0.055,"9":0.075,"10":0.085,"11":0.05,"12":0.04,"13":0.025,"14":0.04,"15":0.03,"16":0.015,"17":0.025,"18":0.035,"19":0.02,"20":0.01,"21":0.005,"22":0.01,"23":0.005,"24":0.02,"25":0.015,"26":0.005,"27":0.005,"28":0.005,"29":0.005,"30":0.005,"31":0.005,"34":0.005,"38":0.005,"43":0.01,"46":0.005,"49":0.005,"51":0.005,"60":0.005,"76":0.005,"82":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.01,"1":0.04,"2":0.045,"3":0.1,"4":0.16,"5":0.085,"6":0.12,"7":0.11,"8":0.075,"9":0.05,"10":0.05,"11":0.03,"12":0.015,"13":0.02,"14":0.025,"15":0.01,"16":0.005,"17":0.01,"18":0.01,"19":0.005,"21":0.005,"22":0.005,"25":0.005,"26":0.005,"52":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.015,"1":0.025,"2":0.015,"3":0.03,"4":0.05,"5":0.06,"6":0.09,"7":0.06,"8":0.065,"9":0.05,"10":0.07,"11":0.03,"12":0.065,"13":0.035,"14":0.03,"15":0.045,"16":0.045,"17":0.04,"18":0.01,"19":0.025,"20":0.02,"21":0.01,"22":0.01,"23":0.01,"24":0.01,"25":0.01,"26":0.005,"28":0.005,"29":0.01,"31":0.005,"33":0.005,"39":0.01,"40":0.015,"48":0.005,"53":0.005,"58":0.005,"79":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"2":0.005,"3":0.01,"4":0.01,"5":0.015,"6":0.05,"7":0.08,"8":0.165,"9":0.12,"10":0.16,"11":0.1,"12":0.1,"13":0.07,"14":0.07,"15":0.005,"16":0.025,"17":0.005,"18":0.005,"20":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"1":0.005,"2":0.01,"3":0.03,"4":0.085,"5":0.105,"6":0.155,"7":0.125,"8":0.12,"9":0.155,"10":0.09,"11":0.065,"12":0.02,"13":0.02,"14":0.005,"15":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.06,"1":0.055,"2":0.095,"3":0.075,"4":0.075,"5":0.08,"6":0.08,"7":0.065,"8":0.095,"9":0.055,"10":0.045,"11":0.045,"12":0.025,"13":0.02,"14":0.02,"15":0.045,"16":0.03,"18":0.005,"20":0.005,"21":0.005,"23":0.01,"24":0.005,"30":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1782172800000,"validUntil":1782777600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":3,"actual":1,"trainingCount":6747,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2026","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.32294999999999996,"mean":1.51,"median":1,"bias":0.51,"maeMean":0.51,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.35,"pitUpper":0.635,"empiricalMass":0.285,"logScore":1.2552660987134867},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.318925,"mean":0.955,"median":0.5,"bias":-0.04500000000000004,"maeMean":0.04500000000000004,"maeMedian":0.5,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.5,"pitUpper":0.77,"empiricalMass":0.27,"logScore":1.3093333199837622},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.3721749999999999,"mean":1.535,"median":1,"bias":0.5349999999999999,"maeMean":0.5349999999999999,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.395,"pitUpper":0.625,"empiricalMass":0.23,"logScore":1.4696759700589417},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.273875,"mean":1.515,"median":1,"bias":0.5149999999999999,"maeMean":0.5149999999999999,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.195,"pitUpper":0.55,"empiricalMass":0.355,"logScore":1.0356374895067213},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.25425,"mean":0.86,"median":1,"bias":-0.14,"maeMean":0.14,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.44,"pitUpper":0.76,"empiricalMass":0.32,"logScore":1.1394342831883648},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.37124999999999997,"mean":0.71,"median":0,"bias":-0.29000000000000004,"maeMean":0.29000000000000004,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.58,"pitUpper":0.83,"empiricalMass":0.25,"logScore":1.3862943611198906}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.35,"1":0.285,"2":0.15,"3":0.095,"4":0.055,"5":0.03,"6":0.01,"7":0.005,"8":0.01,"9":0.005,"10":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.5,"1":0.27,"2":0.12,"3":0.06,"4":0.02,"5":0.01,"6":0.01,"7":0.005,"8":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.395,"1":0.23,"2":0.155,"3":0.09,"4":0.05,"5":0.035,"6":0.01,"7":0.015,"8":0.01,"9":0.005,"12":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.195,"1":0.355,"2":0.28,"3":0.105,"4":0.055,"6":0.005,"7":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.44,"1":0.32,"2":0.185,"3":0.05,"4":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.58,"1":0.25,"2":0.105,"3":0.025,"4":0.03,"5":0.005,"6":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1782172800000,"validUntil":1782777600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":6747,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2026","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.014174999999999993,"mean":0.155,"median":0,"bias":0.155,"maeMean":0.155,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.885,"empiricalMass":0.885,"logScore":0.12216763397420753},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.008525000000000005,"mean":0.115,"median":0,"bias":0.115,"maeMean":0.115,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.91,"empiricalMass":0.91,"logScore":0.09431067947124129},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.03605,"mean":0.24,"median":0,"bias":0.24,"maeMean":0.24,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.815,"empiricalMass":0.815,"logScore":0.2045671657412744},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.017325000000000007,"mean":0.155,"median":0,"bias":0.155,"maeMean":0.155,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.87,"empiricalMass":0.87,"logScore":0.13926206733350766},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.009050000000000002,"mean":0.1,"median":0,"bias":0.1,"maeMean":0.1,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.905,"empiricalMass":0.905,"logScore":0.0998203352822109},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.006575000000000011,"mean":0.115,"median":0,"bias":0.115,"maeMean":0.115,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.925,"empiricalMass":0.925,"logScore":0.0779615414697118}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.885,"1":0.085,"2":0.025,"4":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.91,"1":0.07,"2":0.015,"3":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.815,"1":0.145,"2":0.025,"3":0.015},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.87,"1":0.11,"2":0.015,"3":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.905,"1":0.09,"2":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.925,"1":0.045,"2":0.025,"4":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1782172800000,"validUntil":1784764800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":2,"actual":20,"trainingCount":6747,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2026","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":21.868775,"mean":54.995,"median":49,"bias":34.995,"maeMean":34.995,"maeMedian":29,"low":24,"high":100,"coverage":false,"width":76,"pitLower":0.01,"pitUpper":0.02,"empiricalMass":0.01,"logScore":4.605170185988091},"rollingETAS":{"crps":9.142875,"mean":37.795,"median":32.5,"bias":17.795,"maeMean":17.795,"maeMedian":12.5,"low":18,"high":75,"coverage":true,"width":57,"pitLower":0.055,"pitUpper":0.08,"empiricalMass":0.025,"logScore":3.6888794541139363},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":23.433549999999997,"mean":56.58,"median":52,"bias":36.58,"maeMean":36.58,"maeMedian":32,"low":27,"high":106,"coverage":false,"width":79,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":22.047325,"mean":45.715,"median":46,"bias":25.715000000000003,"maeMean":25.715000000000003,"maeMedian":26,"low":37,"high":56,"coverage":false,"width":19,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentPoisson":{"crps":8.222875,"mean":31.465,"median":31,"bias":11.465,"maeMean":11.465,"maeMedian":11,"low":23,"high":42,"coverage":false,"width":19,"pitLower":0.025,"pitUpper":0.035,"empiricalMass":0.01,"logScore":4.605170185988091},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":6.4106749999999995,"mean":31.045,"median":30,"bias":11.045000000000002,"maeMean":11.045000000000002,"maeMedian":10,"low":16,"high":47,"coverage":true,"width":31,"pitLower":0.135,"pitUpper":0.15,"empiricalMass":0.015,"logScore":4.199705077879927}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"15":0.005,"16":0.005,"20":0.01,"21":0.01,"22":0.01,"23":0.005,"24":0.01,"25":0.005,"26":0.015,"27":0.005,"28":0.015,"29":0.01,"30":0.005,"31":0.035,"32":0.015,"33":0.025,"34":0.025,"35":0.01,"36":0.015,"37":0.03,"38":0.015,"39":0.01,"40":0.02,"41":0.025,"42":0.01,"43":0.005,"44":0.03,"45":0.02,"46":0.04,"47":0.02,"48":0.01,"49":0.04,"50":0.005,"51":0.01,"52":0.03,"53":0.01,"54":0.025,"55":0.015,"56":0.01,"57":0.02,"58":0.005,"59":0.01,"60":0.015,"61":0.01,"62":0.01,"63":0.01,"64":0.015,"65":0.01,"66":0.015,"67":0.01,"68":0.005,"70":0.01,"71":0.005,"72":0.02,"73":0.01,"74":0.02,"75":0.005,"76":0.01,"78":0.01,"79":0.005,"80":0.01,"81":0.005,"82":0.005,"83":0.005,"84":0.01,"85":0.015,"87":0.01,"88":0.005,"89":0.005,"90":0.01,"91":0.005,"92":0.01,"95":0.005,"100":0.005,"102":0.005,"103":0.005,"107":0.005,"108":0.005,"124":0.005,"126":0.005,"131":0.005,"138":0.005,"140":0.005,"142":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"12":0.005,"14":0.005,"15":0.01,"16":0.01,"17":0.01,"18":0.015,"20":0.025,"21":0.03,"22":0.035,"23":0.02,"24":0.025,"25":0.02,"26":0.035,"27":0.07,"28":0.05,"29":0.04,"30":0.015,"31":0.04,"32":0.04,"33":0.01,"34":0.02,"35":0.025,"36":0.04,"37":0.025,"38":0.025,"39":0.02,"40":0.01,"41":0.025,"42":0.015,"43":0.025,"44":0.02,"45":0.025,"46":0.02,"47":0.005,"49":0.02,"50":0.005,"51":0.01,"53":0.01,"55":0.01,"57":0.005,"58":0.005,"59":0.005,"60":0.01,"62":0.01,"63":0.005,"64":0.01,"65":0.005,"66":0.01,"71":0.005,"72":0.005,"73":0.005,"75":0.005,"78":0.01,"81":0.005,"82":0.005,"86":0.005,"88":0.005,"94":0.005,"104":0.01,"115":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"21":0.01,"22":0.01,"24":0.015,"26":0.01,"27":0.005,"28":0.01,"30":0.03,"31":0.04,"32":0.01,"33":0.015,"34":0.02,"35":0.01,"36":0.02,"37":0.015,"38":0.005,"39":0.01,"40":0.03,"41":0.01,"42":0.015,"43":0.03,"44":0.025,"45":0.02,"46":0.025,"47":0.015,"48":0.04,"49":0.01,"50":0.025,"51":0.015,"52":0.03,"53":0.035,"54":0.02,"55":0.025,"56":0.01,"57":0.005,"58":0.015,"59":0.005,"60":0.03,"61":0.01,"62":0.02,"63":0.01,"64":0.015,"65":0.01,"66":0.015,"67":0.02,"68":0.005,"69":0.01,"70":0.01,"71":0.005,"72":0.01,"73":0.02,"75":0.005,"77":0.025,"78":0.01,"79":0.005,"80":0.005,"81":0.005,"82":0.005,"83":0.01,"85":0.01,"91":0.005,"92":0.005,"94":0.005,"99":0.005,"101":0.005,"103":0.005,"104":0.005,"106":0.005,"107":0.005,"108":0.005,"115":0.005,"120":0.005,"126":0.005,"127":0.005,"148":0.005,"160":0.005,"169":0.005,"176":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"31":0.02,"34":0.005,"35":0.01,"36":0.01,"37":0.055,"38":0.055,"39":0.035,"40":0.03,"41":0.065,"42":0.04,"43":0.045,"44":0.06,"45":0.065,"46":0.075,"47":0.06,"48":0.035,"49":0.055,"50":0.06,"51":0.04,"52":0.06,"53":0.015,"54":0.01,"55":0.02,"56":0.025,"57":0.01,"58":0.005,"59":0.01,"60":0.01,"61":0.005,"65":0.005,"72":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"17":0.005,"19":0.02,"20":0.01,"21":0.005,"22":0.005,"23":0.03,"24":0.035,"25":0.05,"26":0.05,"27":0.065,"28":0.06,"29":0.04,"30":0.05,"31":0.08,"32":0.08,"33":0.055,"34":0.06,"35":0.055,"36":0.045,"37":0.05,"38":0.035,"39":0.02,"40":0.03,"41":0.01,"42":0.025,"43":0.005,"44":0.01,"45":0.005,"47":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"7":0.005,"9":0.01,"10":0.005,"11":0.01,"13":0.005,"15":0.01,"16":0.01,"17":0.01,"18":0.015,"19":0.055,"20":0.015,"21":0.025,"22":0.045,"23":0.01,"24":0.05,"25":0.025,"26":0.03,"27":0.045,"28":0.07,"29":0.015,"30":0.045,"31":0.055,"32":0.02,"33":0.035,"34":0.01,"35":0.035,"36":0.035,"37":0.035,"38":0.04,"39":0.04,"40":0.01,"41":0.025,"42":0.02,"43":0.025,"44":0.015,"45":0.01,"46":0.015,"47":0.015,"48":0.005,"49":0.005,"50":0.015,"55":0.005,"56":0.005,"57":0.005,"64":0.005,"70":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1782172800000,"validUntil":1784764800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":3,"actual":3,"trainingCount":6747,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2026","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":1.9137499999999998,"mean":6.89,"median":6,"bias":3.8899999999999997,"maeMean":3.8899999999999997,"maeMedian":3,"low":1,"high":16,"coverage":true,"width":15,"pitLower":0.135,"pitUpper":0.23,"empiricalMass":0.095,"logScore":2.353878387381596},"rollingETAS":{"crps":1.149,"mean":5.61,"median":5,"bias":2.6100000000000003,"maeMean":2.6100000000000003,"maeMedian":2,"low":1,"high":14,"coverage":true,"width":13,"pitLower":0.205,"pitUpper":0.345,"empiricalMass":0.14,"logScore":1.9661128563728327},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":1.7791749999999995,"mean":6.715,"median":6,"bias":3.715,"maeMean":3.715,"maeMedian":3,"low":1,"high":16,"coverage":true,"width":15,"pitLower":0.13,"pitUpper":0.225,"empiricalMass":0.095,"logScore":2.353878387381596},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":1.834825,"mean":6.065,"median":6,"bias":3.0650000000000004,"maeMean":3.0650000000000004,"maeMedian":3,"low":3,"high":11,"coverage":true,"width":8,"pitLower":0.03,"pitUpper":0.125,"empiricalMass":0.095,"logScore":2.353878387381596},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.45032499999999986,"mean":3.565,"median":3,"bias":0.565,"maeMean":0.565,"maeMedian":0,"low":1,"high":7,"coverage":true,"width":6,"pitLower":0.305,"pitUpper":0.53,"empiricalMass":0.225,"logScore":1.491654876777717},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.6640250000000001,"mean":3.835,"median":3,"bias":0.835,"maeMean":0.835,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":9,"coverage":true,"width":9,"pitLower":0.37,"pitUpper":0.515,"empiricalMass":0.145,"logScore":1.9310215365615626}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.01,"1":0.05,"2":0.075,"3":0.095,"4":0.115,"5":0.105,"6":0.095,"7":0.085,"8":0.065,"9":0.07,"10":0.06,"11":0.055,"12":0.015,"13":0.025,"14":0.015,"15":0.005,"16":0.01,"17":0.015,"18":0.015,"21":0.015,"22":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.035,"1":0.065,"2":0.105,"3":0.14,"4":0.125,"5":0.13,"6":0.095,"7":0.08,"8":0.05,"9":0.045,"10":0.015,"11":0.025,"12":0.025,"13":0.01,"14":0.005,"15":0.015,"16":0.005,"17":0.01,"20":0.01,"22":0.005,"24":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.025,"1":0.035,"2":0.07,"3":0.095,"4":0.11,"5":0.13,"6":0.15,"7":0.075,"8":0.055,"9":0.05,"10":0.045,"11":0.03,"12":0.02,"13":0.02,"14":0.01,"15":0.025,"16":0.005,"17":0.02,"18":0.005,"21":0.015,"23":0.01},"expandingPoisson":{"2":0.03,"3":0.095,"4":0.13,"5":0.2,"6":0.215,"7":0.08,"8":0.08,"9":0.065,"10":0.035,"11":0.065,"12":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.045,"1":0.11,"2":0.15,"3":0.225,"4":0.195,"5":0.12,"6":0.065,"7":0.05,"8":0.01,"9":0.02,"10":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.105,"1":0.085,"2":0.18,"3":0.145,"4":0.125,"5":0.115,"6":0.06,"7":0.055,"8":0.07,"9":0.045,"10":0.005,"12":0.01}}},{"issuedAt":1782172800000,"validUntil":1784764800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":6747,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2026","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.31952499999999995,"mean":0.875,"median":0,"bias":0.875,"maeMean":0.875,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.505,"empiricalMass":0.505,"logScore":0.6831968497067772},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.24630000000000007,"mean":0.79,"median":0,"bias":0.79,"maeMean":0.79,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.56,"empiricalMass":0.56,"logScore":0.579818495252942},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.2733,"mean":0.78,"median":0,"bias":0.78,"maeMean":0.78,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.515,"empiricalMass":0.515,"logScore":0.6635883783184009},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.33372500000000005,"mean":0.795,"median":1,"bias":0.795,"maeMean":0.795,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.46,"empiricalMass":0.46,"logScore":0.7765287894989963},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.094275,"mean":0.345,"median":0,"bias":0.345,"maeMean":0.345,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.695,"empiricalMass":0.695,"logScore":0.363843433417345},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.06,"mean":0.38,"median":0,"bias":0.38,"maeMean":0.38,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.77,"empiricalMass":0.77,"logScore":0.2613647641344075}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.505,"1":0.24,"2":0.16,"3":0.075,"4":0.015,"6":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.56,"1":0.23,"2":0.125,"3":0.05,"4":0.025,"5":0.005,"7":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.515,"1":0.305,"2":0.115,"3":0.03,"4":0.02,"5":0.015},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.46,"1":0.34,"2":0.155,"3":0.035,"4":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.695,"1":0.27,"2":0.03,"3":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.77,"1":0.16,"2":0.03,"3":0.02,"4":0.01,"6":0.01}}},{"issuedAt":1784764800000,"validUntil":1784851200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":2,"actual":1,"trainingCount":6767,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2026","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.3026749999999999,"mean":1.575,"median":1,"bias":0.575,"maeMean":0.575,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.36,"pitUpper":0.65,"empiricalMass":0.29,"logScore":1.2378743560016174},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.30547499999999994,"mean":1.055,"median":1,"bias":0.05499999999999994,"maeMean":0.05499999999999994,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.47,"pitUpper":0.745,"empiricalMass":0.275,"logScore":1.2909841813155656},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.33100000000000007,"mean":1.51,"median":1,"bias":0.51,"maeMean":0.51,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":6,"coverage":true,"width":6,"pitLower":0.41,"pitUpper":0.665,"empiricalMass":0.255,"logScore":1.3664917338237108},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.27660000000000007,"mean":1.45,"median":1,"bias":0.44999999999999996,"maeMean":0.44999999999999996,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.235,"pitUpper":0.575,"empiricalMass":0.34,"logScore":1.0788096613719298},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.25555000000000005,"mean":0.87,"median":1,"bias":-0.13,"maeMean":0.13,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.45,"pitUpper":0.785,"empiricalMass":0.335,"logScore":1.0936247471570706},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.3940999999999999,"mean":1.01,"median":0,"bias":0.010000000000000009,"maeMean":0.010000000000000009,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.565,"pitUpper":0.78,"empiricalMass":0.215,"logScore":1.5371172508544744}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.36,"1":0.29,"2":0.175,"3":0.065,"4":0.05,"5":0.025,"6":0.005,"7":0.01,"10":0.005,"12":0.005,"13":0.005,"28":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.47,"1":0.275,"2":0.13,"3":0.075,"4":0.02,"5":0.02,"9":0.005,"14":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.41,"1":0.255,"2":0.16,"3":0.09,"4":0.015,"5":0.01,"6":0.02,"7":0.005,"8":0.01,"9":0.005,"10":0.01,"12":0.005,"23":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.235,"1":0.34,"2":0.23,"3":0.145,"4":0.035,"5":0.015},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.45,"1":0.335,"2":0.135,"3":0.06,"4":0.015,"5":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.565,"1":0.215,"2":0.09,"3":0.06,"4":0.025,"5":0.01,"6":0.005,"7":0.015,"8":0.005,"11":0.01}}},{"issuedAt":1784764800000,"validUntil":1784851200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":3,"actual":0,"trainingCount":6767,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2026","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.027950000000000003,"mean":0.21,"median":0,"bias":0.21,"maeMean":0.21,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.835,"empiricalMass":0.835,"logScore":0.18032355413128162},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.015399999999999997,"mean":0.16,"median":0,"bias":0.16,"maeMean":0.16,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.88,"empiricalMass":0.88,"logScore":0.12783337150988489},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.01765,"mean":0.17,"median":0,"bias":0.17,"maeMean":0.17,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.87,"empiricalMass":0.87,"logScore":0.13926206733350766},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.04685,"mean":0.24,"median":0,"bias":0.24,"maeMean":0.24,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.785,"empiricalMass":0.785,"logScore":0.24207156119972859},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.018449999999999994,"mean":0.15,"median":0,"bias":0.15,"maeMean":0.15,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.865,"empiricalMass":0.865,"logScore":0.14502577205025774},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.012725000000000014,"mean":0.135,"median":0,"bias":0.135,"maeMean":0.135,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.89,"empiricalMass":0.89,"logScore":0.11653381625595151}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.835,"1":0.14,"2":0.02,"6":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.88,"1":0.09,"2":0.02,"3":0.01},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.87,"1":0.105,"2":0.015,"3":0.005,"4":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.785,"1":0.19,"2":0.025},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.865,"1":0.12,"2":0.015},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.89,"1":0.085,"2":0.025}}},{"issuedAt":1784764800000,"validUntil":1784851200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":6767,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2026","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.0000999999999999994,"mean":0.01,"median":0,"bias":0.01,"maeMean":0.01,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.99,"empiricalMass":0.99,"logScore":0.01005033585350145},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.000899999999999998,"mean":0.03,"median":0,"bias":0.03,"maeMean":0.03,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.97,"empiricalMass":0.97,"logScore":0.030459207484708574},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.00040000000000000105,"mean":0.02,"median":0,"bias":0.02,"maeMean":0.02,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.98,"empiricalMass":0.98,"logScore":0.020202707317519466},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.00040000000000000105,"mean":0.02,"median":0,"bias":0.02,"maeMean":0.02,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.98,"empiricalMass":0.98,"logScore":0.020202707317519466},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.0002249999999999995,"mean":0.015,"median":0,"bias":0.015,"maeMean":0.015,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.985,"empiricalMass":0.985,"logScore":0.015113637810048184},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0,"mean":0,"median":0,"bias":0,"maeMean":0,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":1,"empiricalMass":1,"logScore":0}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.99,"1":0.01},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.97,"1":0.03},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.98,"1":0.02},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.98,"1":0.02},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.985,"1":0.015},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":1}}},{"issuedAt":1784764800000,"validUntil":1785369600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":2,"actual":3,"trainingCount":6767,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2026","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":4.180750000000001,"mean":11.2,"median":9,"bias":8.2,"maeMean":8.2,"maeMedian":6,"low":2,"high":26,"coverage":true,"width":24,"pitLower":0.065,"pitUpper":0.095,"empiricalMass":0.03,"logScore":3.506557897319982},"rollingETAS":{"crps":1.6648,"mean":7.01,"median":5.5,"bias":4.01,"maeMean":4.01,"maeMedian":2.5,"low":1,"high":17,"coverage":true,"width":16,"pitLower":0.115,"pitUpper":0.245,"empiricalMass":0.13,"logScore":2.0402208285265546},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":3.5322000000000005,"mean":10.42,"median":8,"bias":7.42,"maeMean":7.42,"maeMedian":5,"low":2,"high":24,"coverage":true,"width":22,"pitLower":0.06,"pitUpper":0.11,"empiricalMass":0.05,"logScore":2.995732273553991},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":5.5326249999999995,"mean":10.325,"median":10,"bias":7.324999999999999,"maeMean":7.324999999999999,"maeMedian":7,"low":5,"high":15,"coverage":false,"width":10,"pitLower":0.005,"pitUpper":0.015,"empiricalMass":0.01,"logScore":4.605170185988091},"recentPoisson":{"crps":2.1153250000000003,"mean":6.285,"median":6,"bias":3.285,"maeMean":3.285,"maeMedian":3,"low":3,"high":10,"coverage":true,"width":7,"pitLower":0.045,"pitUpper":0.1,"empiricalMass":0.055,"logScore":2.900422093749666},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":1.9096249999999997,"mean":7.255,"median":6,"bias":4.255,"maeMean":4.255,"maeMedian":3,"low":1,"high":17,"coverage":true,"width":16,"pitLower":0.16,"pitUpper":0.25,"empiricalMass":0.09,"logScore":2.4079456086518722}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.005,"1":0.02,"2":0.04,"3":0.03,"4":0.06,"5":0.085,"6":0.1,"7":0.065,"8":0.065,"9":0.06,"10":0.05,"11":0.045,"12":0.045,"13":0.035,"14":0.025,"15":0.06,"16":0.03,"17":0.02,"18":0.015,"19":0.03,"20":0.02,"21":0.015,"22":0.005,"24":0.02,"26":0.005,"28":0.01,"32":0.005,"33":0.005,"35":0.005,"36":0.005,"44":0.005,"45":0.005,"49":0.01},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.01,"1":0.045,"2":0.06,"3":0.13,"4":0.14,"5":0.115,"6":0.105,"7":0.065,"8":0.09,"9":0.035,"10":0.04,"11":0.02,"12":0.04,"13":0.035,"14":0.01,"16":0.005,"17":0.01,"18":0.005,"19":0.005,"21":0.005,"22":0.01,"26":0.005,"35":0.005,"39":0.005,"49":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.005,"1":0.01,"2":0.045,"3":0.05,"4":0.075,"5":0.08,"6":0.11,"7":0.09,"8":0.075,"9":0.055,"10":0.07,"11":0.05,"12":0.03,"13":0.025,"14":0.03,"15":0.03,"16":0.025,"17":0.02,"18":0.02,"19":0.02,"20":0.005,"21":0.01,"22":0.005,"23":0.005,"24":0.01,"26":0.005,"28":0.01,"33":0.005,"37":0.005,"45":0.01,"48":0.005,"50":0.005,"65":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"2":0.005,"3":0.01,"4":0.02,"5":0.03,"6":0.04,"7":0.09,"8":0.1,"9":0.115,"10":0.125,"11":0.1,"12":0.075,"13":0.15,"14":0.055,"15":0.05,"16":0.01,"17":0.005,"18":0.015,"23":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"1":0.01,"2":0.035,"3":0.055,"4":0.11,"5":0.18,"6":0.17,"7":0.165,"8":0.12,"9":0.05,"10":0.055,"11":0.035,"12":0.015},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.025,"1":0.065,"2":0.07,"3":0.09,"4":0.11,"5":0.125,"6":0.08,"7":0.06,"8":0.085,"9":0.035,"10":0.035,"11":0.025,"12":0.035,"13":0.05,"15":0.01,"16":0.04,"17":0.015,"18":0.005,"20":0.005,"21":0.005,"22":0.01,"25":0.005,"27":0.01,"34":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1784764800000,"validUntil":1785369600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":3,"actual":0,"trainingCount":6767,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2026","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.47820000000000007,"mean":1.28,"median":1,"bias":1.28,"maeMean":1.28,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.425,"empiricalMass":0.425,"logScore":0.8556661100577202},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.35725000000000007,"mean":1.03,"median":1,"bias":1.03,"maeMean":1.03,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.465,"empiricalMass":0.465,"logScore":0.7657178733947807},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.4952000000000001,"mean":1.35,"median":1,"bias":1.35,"maeMean":1.35,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.405,"empiricalMass":0.405,"logScore":0.9038682118755978},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.8435499999999999,"mean":1.45,"median":1,"bias":1.45,"maeMean":1.45,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.2,"empiricalMass":0.2,"logScore":1.6094379124341003},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.38132499999999997,"mean":0.855,"median":1,"bias":0.855,"maeMean":0.855,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.415,"empiricalMass":0.415,"logScore":0.8794767587514388},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.2738499999999999,"mean":0.82,"median":0,"bias":0.82,"maeMean":0.82,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.54,"empiricalMass":0.54,"logScore":0.616186139423817}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.425,"1":0.25,"2":0.16,"3":0.07,"4":0.03,"5":0.03,"6":0.02,"7":0.01,"8":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.465,"1":0.315,"2":0.095,"3":0.055,"4":0.03,"5":0.025,"7":0.01,"9":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.405,"1":0.29,"2":0.125,"3":0.08,"4":0.045,"5":0.025,"7":0.005,"8":0.01,"9":0.01,"12":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.2,"1":0.38,"2":0.265,"3":0.105,"4":0.025,"5":0.025},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.415,"1":0.395,"2":0.14,"3":0.03,"4":0.01,"5":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.54,"1":0.225,"2":0.155,"3":0.06,"4":0.01,"6":0.005,"7":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1784764800000,"validUntil":1785369600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":6767,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2026","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.015875,"mean":0.145,"median":0,"bias":0.145,"maeMean":0.145,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.875,"empiricalMass":0.875,"logScore":0.13353139262452263},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.0063,"mean":0.11,"median":0,"bias":0.11,"maeMean":0.11,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.925,"empiricalMass":0.925,"logScore":0.0779615414697118},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.017825000000000008,"mean":0.165,"median":0,"bias":0.165,"maeMean":0.165,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.87,"empiricalMass":0.87,"logScore":0.13926206733350766},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.024050000000000016,"mean":0.16,"median":0,"bias":0.16,"maeMean":0.16,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.845,"empiricalMass":0.845,"logScore":0.16841865162496325},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.00042500000000000177,"mean":0.025,"median":0,"bias":0.025,"maeMean":0.025,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.98,"empiricalMass":0.98,"logScore":0.020202707317519466},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.00037500000000000033,"mean":0.035,"median":0,"bias":0.035,"maeMean":0.035,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.985,"empiricalMass":0.985,"logScore":0.015113637810048184}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.875,"1":0.11,"2":0.01,"3":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.925,"1":0.05,"2":0.02,"4":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.87,"1":0.1,"2":0.025,"3":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.845,"1":0.15,"2":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.98,"1":0.015,"2":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.985,"1":0.005,"2":0.005,"4":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1784764800000,"validUntil":1787356800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":2,"actual":43,"trainingCount":6767,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2026","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":5.184949999999999,"mean":53.1,"median":48,"bias":10.100000000000001,"maeMean":10.100000000000001,"maeMedian":5,"low":25,"high":105,"coverage":true,"width":80,"pitLower":0.35,"pitUpper":0.395,"empiricalMass":0.045,"logScore":3.101092789211817},"rollingETAS":{"crps":6.094825,"mean":38.295,"median":33,"bias":-4.704999999999998,"maeMean":4.704999999999998,"maeMedian":10,"low":18,"high":79,"coverage":true,"width":61,"pitLower":0.74,"pitUpper":0.77,"empiricalMass":0.03,"logScore":3.506557897319982},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":5.009275000000001,"mean":51.295,"median":47,"bias":8.295000000000002,"maeMean":8.295000000000002,"maeMedian":4,"low":24,"high":96,"coverage":true,"width":72,"pitLower":0.43,"pitUpper":0.445,"empiricalMass":0.015,"logScore":4.199705077879927},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":1.4913250000000002,"mean":44.105,"median":44,"bias":1.1049999999999969,"maeMean":1.1049999999999969,"maeMedian":1,"low":34,"high":56,"coverage":true,"width":22,"pitLower":0.435,"pitUpper":0.495,"empiricalMass":0.06,"logScore":2.8134107167600364},"recentPoisson":{"crps":11.379150000000001,"mean":28.6,"median":28.5,"bias":-14.399999999999999,"maeMean":14.399999999999999,"maeMedian":14.5,"low":20,"high":38,"coverage":false,"width":18,"pitLower":1,"pitUpper":1,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":8.383125,"mean":30.345,"median":30,"bias":-12.655000000000001,"maeMean":12.655000000000001,"maeMedian":13,"low":15,"high":50,"coverage":true,"width":35,"pitLower":0.905,"pitUpper":0.915,"empiricalMass":0.01,"logScore":4.605170185988091}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"17":0.005,"19":0.005,"21":0.005,"22":0.005,"23":0.01,"24":0.015,"25":0.01,"26":0.015,"27":0.005,"28":0.01,"29":0.015,"30":0.01,"31":0.03,"32":0.035,"33":0.025,"34":0.005,"35":0.01,"36":0.02,"37":0.015,"38":0.025,"39":0.03,"40":0.015,"41":0.005,"42":0.025,"43":0.045,"44":0.035,"45":0.02,"46":0.03,"47":0.015,"48":0.02,"49":0.025,"50":0.035,"51":0.025,"52":0.01,"53":0.01,"54":0.005,"55":0.03,"56":0.005,"57":0.02,"58":0.015,"59":0.01,"60":0.01,"61":0.01,"62":0.01,"63":0.015,"64":0.005,"65":0.005,"66":0.01,"67":0.005,"68":0.005,"69":0.005,"70":0.005,"71":0.01,"72":0.01,"74":0.02,"75":0.005,"76":0.015,"77":0.005,"79":0.01,"80":0.01,"81":0.01,"82":0.005,"83":0.005,"85":0.005,"86":0.005,"88":0.005,"90":0.01,"91":0.005,"94":0.005,"95":0.005,"99":0.005,"103":0.005,"105":0.005,"106":0.015,"108":0.005,"110":0.005,"112":0.005,"114":0.005,"115":0.01,"117":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"12":0.005,"15":0.01,"16":0.01,"17":0.01,"18":0.025,"19":0.005,"20":0.02,"21":0.035,"22":0.02,"23":0.025,"24":0.05,"25":0.03,"26":0.025,"27":0.03,"28":0.035,"29":0.04,"30":0.03,"31":0.04,"32":0.03,"33":0.045,"34":0.035,"35":0.035,"36":0.05,"37":0.015,"38":0.01,"39":0.025,"40":0.015,"41":0.005,"42":0.03,"43":0.03,"44":0.005,"45":0.005,"46":0.005,"48":0.01,"49":0.015,"50":0.015,"51":0.005,"52":0.005,"53":0.01,"54":0.005,"55":0.005,"56":0.005,"57":0.005,"58":0.015,"60":0.01,"61":0.02,"62":0.005,"64":0.01,"70":0.005,"72":0.005,"76":0.005,"78":0.005,"79":0.005,"80":0.005,"81":0.005,"82":0.005,"85":0.005,"86":0.005,"96":0.005,"109":0.005,"110":0.005,"139":0.005,"159":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"18":0.01,"19":0.01,"20":0.01,"21":0.005,"24":0.015,"25":0.02,"26":0.01,"28":0.005,"29":0.03,"30":0.02,"31":0.025,"32":0.06,"33":0.02,"34":0.01,"35":0.02,"36":0.02,"37":0.015,"38":0.025,"39":0.015,"40":0.03,"41":0.025,"42":0.03,"43":0.015,"44":0.015,"45":0.03,"46":0.005,"47":0.015,"48":0.015,"49":0.015,"50":0.02,"51":0.04,"52":0.01,"53":0.025,"54":0.01,"55":0.02,"56":0.025,"57":0.02,"58":0.01,"59":0.01,"60":0.005,"61":0.015,"62":0.02,"64":0.005,"65":0.01,"66":0.015,"67":0.01,"68":0.005,"69":0.01,"70":0.005,"72":0.015,"73":0.005,"74":0.01,"76":0.01,"77":0.005,"78":0.025,"83":0.02,"84":0.005,"87":0.005,"89":0.005,"91":0.005,"95":0.005,"96":0.005,"100":0.01,"101":0.005,"102":0.005,"106":0.005,"111":0.005,"123":0.01,"125":0.005,"170":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"27":0.005,"31":0.01,"32":0.005,"33":0.005,"34":0.035,"36":0.02,"37":0.045,"38":0.075,"39":0.065,"40":0.035,"41":0.08,"42":0.055,"43":0.06,"44":0.085,"45":0.035,"46":0.08,"47":0.04,"48":0.015,"49":0.045,"50":0.03,"51":0.035,"52":0.035,"53":0.025,"54":0.015,"55":0.01,"56":0.005,"57":0.015,"58":0.01,"59":0.015,"61":0.005,"62":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"16":0.005,"17":0.005,"18":0.015,"19":0.015,"20":0.02,"21":0.035,"22":0.045,"23":0.01,"24":0.065,"25":0.085,"26":0.085,"27":0.05,"28":0.065,"29":0.065,"30":0.07,"31":0.09,"32":0.055,"33":0.05,"34":0.035,"35":0.04,"36":0.005,"37":0.025,"38":0.025,"39":0.005,"40":0.015,"41":0.005,"42":0.015},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"6":0.005,"12":0.01,"13":0.025,"14":0.005,"15":0.015,"16":0.02,"17":0.015,"18":0.02,"19":0.005,"20":0.035,"21":0.025,"22":0.025,"23":0.055,"24":0.04,"25":0.015,"26":0.04,"27":0.045,"28":0.05,"29":0.03,"30":0.03,"31":0.035,"32":0.045,"33":0.03,"34":0.055,"35":0.05,"36":0.05,"37":0.005,"38":0.045,"39":0.02,"40":0.015,"41":0.03,"42":0.015,"43":0.01,"44":0.01,"45":0.015,"47":0.005,"50":0.015,"51":0.01,"52":0.005,"53":0.005,"54":0.005,"55":0.005,"56":0.005,"57":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1784764800000,"validUntil":1787356800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":3,"actual":4,"trainingCount":6767,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2026","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":1.1063749999999999,"mean":6.385,"median":5,"bias":2.385,"maeMean":2.385,"maeMedian":1,"low":1,"high":14,"coverage":true,"width":13,"pitLower":0.265,"pitUpper":0.41,"empiricalMass":0.145,"logScore":1.9310215365615626},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.9118499999999998,"mean":5.85,"median":5,"bias":1.8499999999999996,"maeMean":1.8499999999999996,"maeMedian":1,"low":1,"high":14,"coverage":true,"width":13,"pitLower":0.31,"pitUpper":0.435,"empiricalMass":0.125,"logScore":2.0794415416798357},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":1.0502499999999997,"mean":6.15,"median":5,"bias":2.1500000000000004,"maeMean":2.1500000000000004,"maeMedian":1,"low":1,"high":13,"coverage":true,"width":12,"pitLower":0.245,"pitUpper":0.38,"empiricalMass":0.135,"logScore":2.0024805005437076},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":1.205225,"mean":6.165,"median":6,"bias":2.165,"maeMean":2.165,"maeMedian":2,"low":2,"high":11,"coverage":true,"width":9,"pitLower":0.16,"pitUpper":0.285,"empiricalMass":0.125,"logScore":2.0794415416798357},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.5299749999999999,"mean":3.535,"median":3,"bias":-0.46499999999999986,"maeMean":0.46499999999999986,"maeMedian":1,"low":1,"high":7,"coverage":true,"width":6,"pitLower":0.54,"pitUpper":0.695,"empiricalMass":0.155,"logScore":1.8643301620628905},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.7620250000000002,"mean":3.515,"median":3,"bias":-0.4849999999999999,"maeMean":0.4849999999999999,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":9,"coverage":true,"width":9,"pitLower":0.59,"pitUpper":0.7,"empiricalMass":0.11,"logScore":2.2072749131897207}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.01,"1":0.065,"2":0.08,"3":0.11,"4":0.145,"5":0.115,"6":0.08,"7":0.08,"8":0.055,"9":0.05,"10":0.04,"11":0.045,"12":0.03,"13":0.01,"14":0.04,"15":0.015,"16":0.005,"19":0.015,"20":0.005,"22":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.025,"1":0.06,"2":0.125,"3":0.1,"4":0.125,"5":0.145,"6":0.1,"7":0.075,"8":0.055,"9":0.025,"10":0.025,"11":0.05,"12":0.01,"13":0.015,"14":0.03,"15":0.01,"18":0.01,"21":0.005,"23":0.005,"28":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.01,"1":0.065,"2":0.075,"3":0.095,"4":0.135,"5":0.125,"6":0.12,"7":0.09,"8":0.07,"9":0.04,"10":0.045,"11":0.035,"12":0.025,"13":0.035,"14":0.005,"15":0.015,"17":0.005,"19":0.005,"30":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.005,"1":0.02,"2":0.055,"3":0.08,"4":0.125,"5":0.15,"6":0.12,"7":0.145,"8":0.11,"9":0.075,"10":0.05,"11":0.05,"13":0.005,"14":0.01},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.03,"1":0.1,"2":0.19,"3":0.22,"4":0.155,"5":0.165,"6":0.075,"7":0.03,"8":0.025,"9":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.09,"1":0.16,"2":0.185,"3":0.155,"4":0.11,"5":0.105,"6":0.08,"7":0.03,"8":0.03,"9":0.02,"10":0.015,"12":0.005,"13":0.005,"16":0.005,"18":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1784764800000,"validUntil":1787356800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":6767,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2026","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.24267499999999997,"mean":0.755,"median":0,"bias":0.755,"maeMean":0.755,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.555,"empiricalMass":0.555,"logScore":0.5887871652357024},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.22447499999999998,"mean":0.765,"median":0,"bias":0.765,"maeMean":0.765,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.575,"empiricalMass":0.575,"logScore":0.5533852381847867},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.17614999999999997,"mean":0.62,"median":0,"bias":0.62,"maeMean":0.62,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.61,"empiricalMass":0.61,"logScore":0.4942963218147801},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.298625,"mean":0.745,"median":1,"bias":0.745,"maeMean":0.745,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.48,"empiricalMass":0.48,"logScore":0.7339691750802004},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.014625000000000013,"mean":0.135,"median":0,"bias":0.135,"maeMean":0.135,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.88,"empiricalMass":0.88,"logScore":0.12783337150988489},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.014824999999999977,"mean":0.145,"median":0,"bias":0.145,"maeMean":0.145,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.88,"empiricalMass":0.88,"logScore":0.12783337150988489}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.555,"1":0.25,"2":0.12,"3":0.045,"4":0.02,"5":0.01},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.575,"1":0.235,"2":0.115,"3":0.035,"4":0.02,"5":0.01,"6":0.005,"7":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.61,"1":0.245,"2":0.095,"3":0.03,"4":0.01,"5":0.005,"6":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.48,"1":0.36,"2":0.11,"3":0.04,"4":0.005,"5":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.88,"1":0.105,"2":0.015},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.88,"1":0.1,"2":0.015,"3":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1787356800000,"validUntil":1787443200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":2,"actual":1,"trainingCount":6810,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2026","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.42942499999999995,"mean":2.035,"median":1,"bias":1.0350000000000001,"maeMean":1.0350000000000001,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":6,"coverage":true,"width":6,"pitLower":0.265,"pitUpper":0.515,"empiricalMass":0.25,"logScore":1.3862943611198906},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.32872499999999993,"mean":1.155,"median":1,"bias":0.15500000000000003,"maeMean":0.15500000000000003,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.445,"pitUpper":0.675,"empiricalMass":0.23,"logScore":1.4696759700589417},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.36287500000000006,"mean":1.925,"median":1,"bias":0.925,"maeMean":0.925,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":6,"coverage":true,"width":6,"pitLower":0.27,"pitUpper":0.585,"empiricalMass":0.315,"logScore":1.155182640156504},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.2513000000000001,"mean":1.38,"median":1,"bias":0.3799999999999999,"maeMean":0.3799999999999999,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.27,"pitUpper":0.615,"empiricalMass":0.345,"logScore":1.0642108619507773},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.22304999999999997,"mean":1.05,"median":1,"bias":0.050000000000000044,"maeMean":0.050000000000000044,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.355,"pitUpper":0.7,"empiricalMass":0.345,"logScore":1.0642108619507773},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.4240999999999999,"mean":1.05,"median":0,"bias":0.050000000000000044,"maeMean":0.050000000000000044,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.575,"pitUpper":0.765,"empiricalMass":0.19,"logScore":1.6607312068216509}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.265,"1":0.25,"2":0.2,"3":0.13,"4":0.06,"5":0.035,"6":0.01,"7":0.01,"8":0.015,"9":0.005,"11":0.005,"12":0.005,"14":0.005,"20":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.445,"1":0.23,"2":0.185,"3":0.075,"4":0.04,"5":0.005,"6":0.01,"8":0.005,"9":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.27,"1":0.315,"2":0.165,"3":0.075,"4":0.06,"5":0.035,"6":0.035,"7":0.005,"8":0.01,"9":0.015,"10":0.005,"12":0.005,"14":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.27,"1":0.345,"2":0.23,"3":0.085,"4":0.035,"5":0.03,"6":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.355,"1":0.345,"2":0.22,"3":0.055,"4":0.025},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.575,"1":0.19,"2":0.085,"3":0.05,"4":0.035,"5":0.035,"6":0.01,"7":0.01,"9":0.005,"10":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1787356800000,"validUntil":1787443200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":3,"actual":0,"trainingCount":6810,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2026","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.054974999999999996,"mean":0.335,"median":0,"bias":0.335,"maeMean":0.335,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.775,"empiricalMass":0.775,"logScore":0.25489224962879004},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.027624999999999983,"mean":0.205,"median":0,"bias":0.205,"maeMean":0.205,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.84,"empiricalMass":0.84,"logScore":0.1743533871447778},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.032649999999999985,"mean":0.24,"median":0,"bias":0.24,"maeMean":0.24,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.825,"empiricalMass":0.825,"logScore":0.19237189264745613},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.052925,"mean":0.235,"median":0,"bias":0.235,"maeMean":0.235,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.77,"empiricalMass":0.77,"logScore":0.2613647641344075},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.008199999999999999,"mean":0.1,"median":0,"bias":0.1,"maeMean":0.1,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.91,"empiricalMass":0.91,"logScore":0.09431067947124129},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.011249999999999996,"mean":0.12,"median":0,"bias":0.12,"maeMean":0.12,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.895,"empiricalMass":0.895,"logScore":0.11093156070728166}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.775,"1":0.165,"2":0.04,"3":0.005,"4":0.005,"5":0.005,"6":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.84,"1":0.115,"2":0.045},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.825,"1":0.135,"2":0.02,"3":0.015,"4":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.77,"1":0.225,"2":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.91,"1":0.08,"2":0.01},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.895,"1":0.09,"2":0.015}}},{"issuedAt":1787356800000,"validUntil":1787443200000,"horizonDays":1,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":6810,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2026","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.0016250000000000014,"mean":0.045,"median":0,"bias":0.045,"maeMean":0.045,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.96,"empiricalMass":0.96,"logScore":0.040821994520255166},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.0006250000000000006,"mean":0.025,"median":0,"bias":0.025,"maeMean":0.025,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.975,"empiricalMass":0.975,"logScore":0.025317807984289897},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.0012500000000000011,"mean":0.04,"median":0,"bias":0.04,"maeMean":0.04,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.965,"empiricalMass":0.965,"logScore":0.03562717764315116},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.0012250000000000039,"mean":0.035,"median":0,"bias":0.035,"maeMean":0.035,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.965,"empiricalMass":0.965,"logScore":0.03562717764315116},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.00040000000000000105,"mean":0.02,"median":0,"bias":0.02,"maeMean":0.02,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.98,"empiricalMass":0.98,"logScore":0.020202707317519466},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.00002499999999999985,"mean":0.005,"median":0,"bias":0.005,"maeMean":0.005,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.995,"empiricalMass":0.995,"logScore":0.005012541823544286}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.96,"1":0.035,"2":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.975,"1":0.025},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.965,"1":0.03,"2":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.965,"1":0.035},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.98,"1":0.02},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.995,"1":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1787356800000,"validUntil":1787961600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":2,"actual":10,"trainingCount":6810,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2026","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":2.19635,"mean":15.09,"median":13,"bias":5.09,"maeMean":5.09,"maeMedian":3,"low":5,"high":33,"coverage":true,"width":28,"pitLower":0.305,"pitUpper":0.36,"empiricalMass":0.055,"logScore":2.900422093749666},"rollingETAS":{"crps":1.3418500000000004,"mean":9.36,"median":8,"bias":-0.6400000000000006,"maeMean":0.6400000000000006,"maeMedian":2,"low":2,"high":20,"coverage":true,"width":18,"pitLower":0.6,"pitUpper":0.675,"empiricalMass":0.075,"logScore":2.5902671654458267},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":1.9803750000000004,"mean":14.325,"median":12,"bias":4.324999999999999,"maeMean":4.324999999999999,"maeMedian":2,"low":5,"high":31,"coverage":true,"width":26,"pitLower":0.375,"pitUpper":0.42,"empiricalMass":0.045,"logScore":3.101092789211817},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.6831750000000001,"mean":10.345,"median":10,"bias":0.34500000000000064,"maeMean":0.34500000000000064,"maeMedian":0,"low":5,"high":15,"coverage":true,"width":10,"pitLower":0.405,"pitUpper":0.56,"empiricalMass":0.155,"logScore":1.8643301620628905},"recentPoisson":{"crps":1.8809,"mean":7.07,"median":7,"bias":-2.9299999999999997,"maeMean":2.9299999999999997,"maeMedian":3,"low":3,"high":12,"coverage":true,"width":9,"pitLower":0.81,"pitUpper":0.895,"empiricalMass":0.085,"logScore":2.4651040224918206},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":2.4872250000000005,"mean":6.585,"median":6,"bias":-3.415,"maeMean":3.415,"maeMedian":4,"low":0,"high":16,"coverage":true,"width":16,"pitLower":0.74,"pitUpper":0.785,"empiricalMass":0.045,"logScore":3.101092789211817}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"3":0.025,"4":0.01,"5":0.045,"6":0.065,"7":0.03,"8":0.065,"9":0.065,"10":0.055,"11":0.055,"12":0.06,"13":0.075,"14":0.04,"15":0.08,"16":0.02,"17":0.04,"18":0.03,"19":0.025,"20":0.025,"21":0.015,"22":0.025,"23":0.005,"24":0.015,"25":0.01,"26":0.015,"27":0.01,"28":0.005,"29":0.015,"30":0.01,"31":0.005,"33":0.01,"34":0.01,"37":0.005,"39":0.005,"45":0.005,"46":0.005,"52":0.005,"56":0.005,"57":0.005,"62":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"1":0.01,"2":0.045,"3":0.02,"4":0.05,"5":0.1,"6":0.125,"7":0.11,"8":0.08,"9":0.06,"10":0.075,"11":0.1,"12":0.03,"13":0.035,"14":0.025,"15":0.035,"16":0.02,"17":0.005,"18":0.01,"19":0.005,"20":0.01,"23":0.01,"25":0.01,"26":0.01,"27":0.005,"30":0.005,"35":0.005,"36":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"2":0.01,"3":0.01,"4":0.025,"5":0.085,"6":0.06,"7":0.045,"8":0.05,"9":0.09,"10":0.045,"11":0.07,"12":0.06,"13":0.04,"14":0.03,"15":0.05,"16":0.045,"17":0.025,"18":0.025,"19":0.025,"20":0.015,"21":0.03,"22":0.015,"23":0.015,"24":0.015,"25":0.015,"26":0.01,"28":0.01,"29":0.025,"30":0.005,"31":0.01,"34":0.015,"36":0.005,"42":0.005,"45":0.005,"52":0.005,"63":0.005,"80":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"3":0.005,"4":0.005,"5":0.04,"6":0.055,"7":0.085,"8":0.08,"9":0.135,"10":0.155,"11":0.095,"12":0.12,"13":0.07,"14":0.08,"15":0.03,"16":0.02,"17":0.005,"18":0.005,"19":0.005,"22":0.005,"23":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"1":0.005,"2":0.015,"3":0.07,"4":0.1,"5":0.11,"6":0.14,"7":0.16,"8":0.12,"9":0.09,"10":0.085,"11":0.04,"12":0.015,"13":0.03,"14":0.015,"15":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.075,"1":0.04,"2":0.15,"3":0.095,"4":0.065,"5":0.065,"6":0.085,"7":0.05,"8":0.05,"9":0.065,"10":0.045,"11":0.03,"12":0.055,"13":0.03,"14":0.015,"15":0.015,"16":0.03,"17":0.005,"18":0.01,"19":0.01,"20":0.005,"21":0.005,"25":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1787356800000,"validUntil":1787961600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":3,"actual":2,"trainingCount":6810,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2026","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.46509999999999996,"mean":1.82,"median":1,"bias":-0.17999999999999994,"maeMean":0.17999999999999994,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":6,"coverage":true,"width":6,"pitLower":0.55,"pitUpper":0.775,"empiricalMass":0.225,"logScore":1.491654876777717},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.5555500000000001,"mean":1.4,"median":1,"bias":-0.6000000000000001,"maeMean":0.6000000000000001,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.64,"pitUpper":0.84,"empiricalMass":0.2,"logScore":1.6094379124341003},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.5437749999999999,"mean":1.655,"median":1,"bias":-0.345,"maeMean":0.345,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":5,"coverage":true,"width":5,"pitLower":0.595,"pitUpper":0.765,"empiricalMass":0.17,"logScore":1.7719568419318752},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.36455000000000004,"mean":1.58,"median":1,"bias":-0.41999999999999993,"maeMean":0.41999999999999993,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":4,"coverage":true,"width":4,"pitLower":0.515,"pitUpper":0.79,"empiricalMass":0.275,"logScore":1.2909841813155656},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.8852500000000001,"mean":0.76,"median":1,"bias":-1.24,"maeMean":1.24,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0.82,"pitUpper":0.965,"empiricalMass":0.145,"logScore":1.9310215365615626},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":1.11115,"mean":0.65,"median":0,"bias":-1.35,"maeMean":1.35,"maeMedian":2,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0.845,"pitUpper":0.925,"empiricalMass":0.08,"logScore":2.5257286443082556}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.27,"1":0.28,"2":0.225,"3":0.07,"4":0.06,"5":0.035,"6":0.025,"7":0.01,"8":0.01,"10":0.005,"11":0.005,"12":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.325,"1":0.315,"2":0.2,"3":0.06,"4":0.04,"5":0.03,"6":0.015,"7":0.015},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.33,"1":0.265,"2":0.17,"3":0.1,"4":0.07,"5":0.025,"6":0.015,"7":0.01,"10":0.005,"12":0.005,"15":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.22,"1":0.295,"2":0.275,"3":0.13,"4":0.06,"5":0.015,"6":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.46,"1":0.36,"2":0.145,"3":0.03,"4":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.625,"1":0.22,"2":0.08,"3":0.05,"4":0.01,"5":0.01,"6":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1787356800000,"validUntil":1787961600000,"horizonDays":7,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":6810,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2026","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.03824999999999998,"mean":0.21,"median":0,"bias":0.21,"maeMean":0.21,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.805,"empiricalMass":0.805,"logScore":0.21691300156357363},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.03545000000000001,"mean":0.22,"median":0,"bias":0.22,"maeMean":0.22,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.815,"empiricalMass":0.815,"logScore":0.2045671657412744},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.022900000000000004,"mean":0.21,"median":0,"bias":0.21,"maeMean":0.21,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.855,"empiricalMass":0.855,"logScore":0.15665381004537685},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.027450000000000002,"mean":0.18,"median":0,"bias":0.18,"maeMean":0.18,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.835,"empiricalMass":0.835,"logScore":0.18032355413128162},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.0016000000000000042,"mean":0.04,"median":0,"bias":0.04,"maeMean":0.04,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.96,"empiricalMass":0.96,"logScore":0.040821994520255166},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.0009250000000000022,"mean":0.035,"median":0,"bias":0.035,"maeMean":0.035,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":0,"coverage":true,"width":0,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.97,"empiricalMass":0.97,"logScore":0.030459207484708574}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.805,"1":0.18,"2":0.015},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.815,"1":0.15,"2":0.035},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.855,"1":0.105,"2":0.025,"3":0.01,"5":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.835,"1":0.15,"2":0.015},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.96,"1":0.04},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.97,"1":0.025,"2":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1787356800000,"validUntil":1789948800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":2,"actual":21,"trainingCount":6810,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2026","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":26.095074999999998,"mean":61.595,"median":55,"bias":40.595,"maeMean":40.595,"maeMedian":34,"low":26,"high":113,"coverage":false,"width":87,"pitLower":0.015,"pitUpper":0.025,"empiricalMass":0.01,"logScore":4.605170185988091},"rollingETAS":{"crps":8.807725,"mean":37.945,"median":34,"bias":16.945,"maeMean":16.945,"maeMedian":13,"low":18,"high":71,"coverage":true,"width":53,"pitLower":0.095,"pitUpper":0.12,"empiricalMass":0.025,"logScore":3.6888794541139363},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":28.297625,"mean":64.165,"median":59,"bias":43.165000000000006,"maeMean":43.165000000000006,"maeMedian":38,"low":33,"high":121,"coverage":false,"width":88,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":20.113825000000002,"mean":45.085,"median":44,"bias":24.085,"maeMean":24.085,"maeMedian":23,"low":35,"high":57,"coverage":false,"width":22,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0,"empiricalMass":0,"logScore":null},"recentPoisson":{"crps":5.632075,"mean":29.545,"median":29,"bias":8.545000000000002,"maeMean":8.545000000000002,"maeMedian":8,"low":21,"high":39,"coverage":true,"width":18,"pitLower":0.035,"pitUpper":0.055,"empiricalMass":0.02,"logScore":3.912023005428146},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":5.853975,"mean":31.355,"median":31,"bias":10.355,"maeMean":10.355,"maeMedian":10,"low":15,"high":52,"coverage":true,"width":37,"pitLower":0.14,"pitUpper":0.18,"empiricalMass":0.04,"logScore":3.2188758248682006}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"16":0.005,"19":0.005,"20":0.005,"21":0.01,"24":0.015,"25":0.005,"26":0.005,"27":0.005,"28":0.005,"29":0.005,"30":0.005,"31":0.015,"32":0.005,"33":0.005,"34":0.015,"35":0.025,"36":0.01,"37":0.005,"38":0.02,"39":0.01,"40":0.005,"41":0.035,"42":0.01,"43":0.01,"44":0.01,"45":0.02,"47":0.055,"48":0.02,"49":0.025,"50":0.025,"51":0.015,"52":0.01,"53":0.045,"54":0.025,"55":0.015,"56":0.025,"57":0.02,"58":0.015,"59":0.015,"60":0.005,"61":0.03,"62":0.015,"63":0.025,"64":0.005,"66":0.01,"67":0.025,"68":0.03,"69":0.005,"71":0.005,"72":0.005,"73":0.02,"74":0.005,"75":0.015,"76":0.005,"77":0.005,"78":0.005,"79":0.01,"80":0.01,"81":0.005,"82":0.005,"83":0.005,"84":0.01,"86":0.01,"87":0.005,"88":0.015,"89":0.01,"91":0.005,"92":0.01,"93":0.005,"94":0.005,"97":0.005,"99":0.005,"102":0.005,"105":0.005,"107":0.005,"109":0.015,"113":0.005,"117":0.005,"123":0.005,"127":0.005,"135":0.005,"137":0.01,"150":0.005,"159":0.005,"160":0.005,"224":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"15":0.01,"16":0.01,"17":0.01,"18":0.025,"19":0.015,"20":0.025,"21":0.025,"22":0.02,"23":0.02,"24":0.03,"25":0.03,"26":0.04,"27":0.015,"28":0.055,"29":0.025,"30":0.025,"31":0.015,"32":0.015,"33":0.055,"34":0.045,"35":0.035,"36":0.015,"37":0.035,"38":0.04,"39":0.015,"40":0.03,"41":0.03,"42":0.005,"43":0.01,"44":0.02,"45":0.015,"46":0.005,"47":0.01,"48":0.01,"49":0.015,"50":0.025,"51":0.005,"52":0.02,"53":0.005,"54":0.015,"55":0.005,"56":0.005,"57":0.015,"58":0.01,"60":0.005,"61":0.005,"64":0.005,"65":0.005,"67":0.005,"69":0.015,"71":0.005,"72":0.01,"77":0.005,"79":0.005,"83":0.005,"89":0.005,"90":0.005,"91":0.01,"115":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"26":0.005,"27":0.005,"29":0.005,"30":0.01,"31":0.015,"33":0.01,"34":0.015,"35":0.025,"36":0.025,"37":0.025,"38":0.03,"39":0.015,"40":0.015,"41":0.01,"42":0.015,"43":0.02,"44":0.015,"45":0.015,"46":0.03,"47":0.005,"48":0.01,"49":0.02,"50":0.015,"51":0.035,"52":0.025,"53":0.02,"54":0.025,"55":0.015,"58":0.015,"59":0.02,"60":0.025,"61":0.04,"62":0.01,"63":0.025,"64":0.01,"65":0.015,"66":0.015,"67":0.01,"68":0.015,"69":0.025,"70":0.01,"71":0.015,"73":0.015,"74":0.01,"75":0.005,"77":0.005,"78":0.005,"79":0.01,"80":0.01,"81":0.015,"82":0.015,"83":0.005,"84":0.015,"85":0.005,"89":0.01,"90":0.005,"92":0.01,"93":0.005,"94":0.015,"95":0.005,"97":0.01,"99":0.01,"100":0.005,"103":0.005,"107":0.005,"108":0.005,"109":0.005,"111":0.005,"119":0.005,"121":0.01,"126":0.005,"127":0.005,"136":0.005,"139":0.005,"141":0.005,"156":0.005,"160":0.005,"211":0.005,"222":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"28":0.005,"30":0.015,"31":0.005,"32":0.005,"33":0.005,"34":0.005,"35":0.025,"36":0.025,"37":0.045,"38":0.035,"39":0.07,"40":0.025,"41":0.095,"42":0.03,"43":0.075,"44":0.045,"45":0.04,"46":0.05,"47":0.025,"48":0.055,"49":0.035,"50":0.04,"51":0.045,"52":0.015,"53":0.055,"54":0.025,"55":0.02,"56":0.015,"57":0.025,"58":0.025,"59":0.005,"60":0.01,"61":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"18":0.015,"19":0.01,"20":0.01,"21":0.02,"22":0.005,"23":0.045,"24":0.085,"25":0.05,"26":0.05,"27":0.08,"28":0.11,"29":0.08,"30":0.075,"31":0.04,"32":0.04,"33":0.065,"34":0.04,"35":0.045,"36":0.015,"37":0.025,"38":0.01,"39":0.045,"40":0.01,"42":0.015,"43":0.005,"44":0.005,"51":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"8":0.005,"9":0.005,"10":0.005,"11":0.005,"12":0.01,"14":0.01,"15":0.015,"17":0.035,"18":0.015,"19":0.02,"20":0.015,"21":0.04,"22":0.04,"23":0.035,"24":0.005,"25":0.035,"26":0.04,"27":0.045,"28":0.015,"29":0.065,"30":0.035,"31":0.04,"32":0.055,"33":0.03,"34":0.035,"35":0.02,"36":0.025,"37":0.02,"38":0.045,"39":0.035,"40":0.035,"41":0.02,"43":0.025,"45":0.01,"46":0.005,"48":0.03,"49":0.005,"50":0.01,"51":0.005,"52":0.01,"53":0.02,"54":0.005,"55":0.01,"56":0.005,"63":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1787356800000,"validUntil":1789948800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":3,"actual":4,"trainingCount":6810,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2026","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":1.683475,"mean":7.605,"median":7,"bias":3.6050000000000004,"maeMean":3.6050000000000004,"maeMedian":3,"low":1,"high":17,"coverage":true,"width":16,"pitLower":0.2,"pitUpper":0.3,"empiricalMass":0.1,"logScore":2.3025850929940455},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.9976500000000001,"mean":5.93,"median":5,"bias":1.9299999999999997,"maeMean":1.9299999999999997,"maeMedian":1,"low":1,"high":12,"coverage":true,"width":11,"pitLower":0.3,"pitUpper":0.415,"empiricalMass":0.115,"logScore":2.162823150618887},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":1.8782999999999999,"mean":7.94,"median":7,"bias":3.9400000000000004,"maeMean":3.9400000000000004,"maeMedian":3,"low":2,"high":17,"coverage":true,"width":15,"pitLower":0.17,"pitUpper":0.25,"empiricalMass":0.08,"logScore":2.5257286443082556},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":1.344425,"mean":6.315,"median":6,"bias":2.3150000000000004,"maeMean":2.3150000000000004,"maeMedian":2,"low":2,"high":10,"coverage":true,"width":8,"pitLower":0.105,"pitUpper":0.225,"empiricalMass":0.12,"logScore":2.120263536200091},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.6100750000000001,"mean":3.325,"median":3,"bias":-0.6749999999999998,"maeMean":0.6749999999999998,"maeMedian":1,"low":1,"high":7,"coverage":true,"width":6,"pitLower":0.61,"pitUpper":0.76,"empiricalMass":0.15,"logScore":1.8971199848858813},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.8296250000000001,"mean":3.175,"median":3,"bias":-0.8250000000000002,"maeMean":0.8250000000000002,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":8,"coverage":true,"width":8,"pitLower":0.63,"pitUpper":0.76,"empiricalMass":0.13,"logScore":2.0402208285265546}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.015,"1":0.035,"2":0.085,"3":0.065,"4":0.1,"5":0.095,"6":0.085,"7":0.11,"8":0.085,"9":0.04,"10":0.065,"11":0.045,"12":0.035,"13":0.015,"14":0.025,"15":0.025,"16":0.005,"17":0.02,"18":0.015,"19":0.015,"23":0.005,"26":0.005,"29":0.005,"32":0.005},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.03,"1":0.045,"2":0.075,"3":0.15,"4":0.115,"5":0.115,"6":0.09,"7":0.09,"8":0.08,"9":0.06,"10":0.055,"11":0.02,"12":0.025,"13":0.01,"14":0.02,"15":0.005,"17":0.005,"24":0.005,"28":0.005},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"1":0.03,"2":0.075,"3":0.065,"4":0.08,"5":0.095,"6":0.13,"7":0.08,"8":0.08,"9":0.07,"10":0.065,"11":0.035,"12":0.055,"13":0.015,"14":0.025,"15":0.03,"16":0.005,"17":0.02,"18":0.01,"20":0.01,"21":0.005,"22":0.005,"26":0.005,"27":0.005,"38":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.005,"1":0.02,"2":0.025,"3":0.055,"4":0.12,"5":0.16,"6":0.16,"7":0.14,"8":0.125,"9":0.11,"10":0.03,"11":0.04,"12":0.005,"14":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.045,"1":0.13,"2":0.18,"3":0.255,"4":0.15,"5":0.115,"6":0.065,"7":0.02,"8":0.015,"9":0.01,"10":0.01,"11":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.12,"1":0.17,"2":0.185,"3":0.155,"4":0.13,"5":0.07,"6":0.055,"7":0.035,"8":0.04,"9":0.015,"10":0.01,"11":0.01,"12":0.005}}},{"issuedAt":1787356800000,"validUntil":1789948800000,"horizonDays":30,"threshold":4,"actual":0,"trainingCount":6810,"rollingFitKey":"rollingETAS-2026","failures":{},"scores":{"frozenETAS":{"crps":0.3248,"mean":0.89,"median":1,"bias":0.89,"maeMean":0.89,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.485,"empiricalMass":0.485,"logScore":0.7236063880446539},"rollingETAS":{"crps":0.2889999999999999,"mean":0.82,"median":0,"bias":0.82,"maeMean":0.82,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.505,"empiricalMass":0.505,"logScore":0.6831968497067772},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"crps":0.37929999999999997,"mean":0.97,"median":1,"bias":0.97,"maeMean":0.97,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":3,"coverage":true,"width":3,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.45,"empiricalMass":0.45,"logScore":0.7985076962177716},"expandingPoisson":{"crps":0.328575,"mean":0.755,"median":1,"bias":0.755,"maeMean":0.755,"maeMedian":1,"low":0,"high":2,"coverage":true,"width":2,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.455,"empiricalMass":0.455,"logScore":0.7874578600311866},"recentPoisson":{"crps":0.025724999999999998,"mean":0.175,"median":0,"bias":0.175,"maeMean":0.175,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.84,"empiricalMass":0.84,"logScore":0.1743533871447778},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"crps":0.01185,"mean":0.15,"median":0,"bias":0.15,"maeMean":0.15,"maeMedian":0,"low":0,"high":1,"coverage":true,"width":1,"pitLower":0,"pitUpper":0.895,"empiricalMass":0.895,"logScore":0.11093156070728166}},"pmf":{"frozenETAS":{"0":0.485,"1":0.29,"2":0.14,"3":0.05,"4":0.015,"5":0.01,"6":0.01},"rollingETAS":{"0":0.505,"1":0.3,"2":0.13,"3":0.03,"4":0.015,"5":0.01,"6":0.01},"unclippedParentsETAS":{"0":0.45,"1":0.295,"2":0.16,"3":0.045,"4":0.035,"5":0.01,"6":0.005},"expandingPoisson":{"0":0.455,"1":0.37,"2":0.145,"3":0.025,"4":0.005},"recentPoisson":{"0":0.84,"1":0.15,"2":0.005,"3":0.005},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"0":0.895,"1":0.08,"2":0.015,"4":0.01}}}],"disclosure":{"schema":1,"scope":"regional M2+ earthquake count","status":"experimental","calibrationStatus":"not-validated","interval":"Conditional simulated 5th–95th count percentiles; not comprehensive uncertainty","excludes":["next-earthquake time/location/magnitude","early warning","M7 probability","foreshock probability","building safety","specific-fault rupture"],"warning":{"tr":"Bu hesap bir sonraki depremin yerini, zamanını veya büyüklüğünü söylemez. Erken uyarı vermez. Büyük deprem olasılığını, bir depremin öncü olup olmadığını veya binanızın güvenliğini göstermez.","en":"This calculation cannot tell you the location, time or magnitude of the next earthquake. It is not an early warning. It does not estimate a major-earthquake or foreshock probability, building safety or which fault will rupture."}},"calibrationStatus":"not-validated"}