{"status":"finite-history-sensitivity","promotionEligible":false,"catalogHash":"92990525febf84c6bd082d250ea3cc87c486ebb95a81cf8b57aa5c78bb70e5b7","sourceHash":"f63995dd753661046ad734b7498c6284f3abe8ba7b9e5eb0be7b56bffbf9f7bb","scoreStart":1451606400000,"scoreEndExclusive":1546300800000,"scoredCount":2316,"prehistoryCount":1473,"prehistoryStart":"2014-01-01","withoutHistory":{"parameters":{"mu":0.5262713942249438,"n":0.95,"alpha":0.6315941888637517,"p":1.1857205784892635,"c":0.02529620659649194},"b":0.8757736352528787,"markMax":5.5,"diagnostics":{"converged":true,"message":"CONVERGENCE: RELATIVE REDUCTION OF F <= FACTR*EPSMCH","objective":-1506.5292904757653,"gradient":[0.0002728484091608809,-36.153642031657945,-0.000727595757762349,-0.002182787297520854,0.006366462911343901],"boundaryHits":["n"],"multistartObjectives":[-1506.52929016376,-1506.5292904757653,-1506.5292904690536],"seconds":15.488500833045691,"iterations":20,"promotionEligible":false}},"withHistory":{"parameters":{"mu":0.4726211928907683,"n":0.95,"alpha":0.6310474074389931,"p":1.1846497561053502,"c":0.025279240685326245},"b":0.8757736352528787,"converged":true,"objective":-1508.8959556630102,"boundaryHits":["n"],"multistartObjectives":[-1508.8959556630102,-1508.895955662831,-1508.8959556627829]},"limitations":["Same scored 2016–2018 window; prehistory 2014–2015 only conditions intensity and compensator.","Two years of history remains finite; long-tailed and unobserved external ancestors remain omitted.","Lower training objective does not establish forecasting skill.","This sensitivity is separate from the frozen matrix; not substituted after seeing outcomes.","Mixed magnitudes and retrospectively chosen eligibility remain."],"disclosure":{"schema":1,"scope":"regional M2+ earthquake count","status":"experimental","calibrationStatus":"not-validated","interval":"Conditional simulated 5th–95th count percentiles; not comprehensive uncertainty","excludes":["next-earthquake time/location/magnitude","early warning","M7 probability","foreshock probability","building safety","specific-fault rupture"],"warning":{"tr":"Bu hesap bir sonraki depremin yerini, zamanını veya büyüklüğünü söylemez. Erken uyarı vermez. Büyük deprem olasılığını, bir depremin öncü olup olmadığını veya binanızın güvenliğini göstermez.","en":"This calculation cannot tell you the location, time or magnitude of the next earthquake. It is not an early warning. It does not estimate a major-earthquake or foreshock probability, building safety or which fault will rupture."}},"calibrationStatus":"not-validated"}