{"schema":1,"status":"exploratory-retrospective","evaluationHash":"6678501d267bac3e2465646904fe70a4de2bf3cb30f03b5984826130444e044d","windows":95,"models":{"expandingPoisson":{"randomizedPitBins":[68,8,6,2,0,2,2,0,1,6],"coverage":0.5052631578947369,"meanWidth":11.210526315789474},"recentPoisson":{"randomizedPitBins":[28,12,8,5,8,8,5,1,6,14],"coverage":0.7578947368421053,"meanWidth":8.91578947368421},"recentNegativeBinomial":{"randomizedPitBins":[3,3,14,6,10,17,20,8,9,5],"coverage":0.9789473684210527,"meanWidth":22.978947368421053},"frozenETAS":{"randomizedPitBins":[26,20,14,16,9,5,3,0,1,1],"coverage":0.9263157894736842,"meanWidth":26.157894736842106}},"pairedCrpsDifference":{"expandingPoisson":[{"mean":-1.4420613157894733,"low":-1.9736841710526314,"high":-0.8475820526315789,"blockWindows":3,"runs":2000,"seed":310},{"mean":-1.4420613157894733,"low":-2.035527828947368,"high":-0.7919713618421056,"blockWindows":6,"runs":2000,"seed":310},{"mean":-1.4420613157894733,"low":-2.0384262565789473,"high":-0.7175483750000002,"blockWindows":12,"runs":2000,"seed":310}],"recentPoisson":[{"mean":0.514546052631579,"low":-0.07672880263157901,"high":1.1376648947368422,"blockWindows":3,"runs":2000,"seed":310},{"mean":0.514546052631579,"low":-0.1733071973684211,"high":1.1707307894736838,"blockWindows":6,"runs":2000,"seed":310},{"mean":0.514546052631579,"low":-0.30128766447368416,"high":1.2034480131578948,"blockWindows":12,"runs":2000,"seed":310}],"recentNegativeBinomial":[{"mean":0.5463928947368423,"low":-0.16849355921052625,"high":1.151099282894737,"blockWindows":3,"runs":2000,"seed":310},{"mean":0.5463928947368423,"low":-0.3132022828947367,"high":1.1544455986842102,"blockWindows":6,"runs":2000,"seed":310},{"mean":0.5463928947368423,"low":-0.328450842105263,"high":1.2031981578947368,"blockWindows":12,"runs":2000,"seed":310}]},"interpretation":"ETAS minus competitor; positive is worse for ETAS. 95% block-resampling intervals are exploratory score uncertainty, not earthquake count prediction intervals.","limitations":["Block sizes chosen as sensitivity checks, not tuned to obtain significance.","Only 95 monthly issue windows; regimes are not stationary and circular wrap joins different eras.","Revised catalog and retrospective eligibility; not an untouched holdout.","Finite simulations affect PIT and scores; parameters remain conditional.","Multiple comparisons not adjusted; no model promotion."],"repositoryEvaluationHash":"91242bdc8370b1e526c35509ac926011b1b5d85c9ddc4dfb493136198232d956","disclosure":{"schema":1,"scope":"regional M2+ earthquake count","status":"experimental","calibrationStatus":"not-validated","interval":"Conditional simulated 5th–95th count percentiles; not comprehensive uncertainty","excludes":["next-earthquake time/location/magnitude","early warning","M7 probability","foreshock probability","building safety","specific-fault rupture"],"warning":{"tr":"Bu hesap bir sonraki depremin yerini, zamanını veya büyüklüğünü söylemez. Erken uyarı vermez. Büyük deprem olasılığını, bir depremin öncü olup olmadığını veya binanızın güvenliğini göstermez.","en":"This calculation cannot tell you the location, time or magnitude of the next earthquake. It is not an early warning. It does not estimate a major-earthquake or foreshock probability, building safety or which fault will rupture."}}}